COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-14

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1504-2108-3004-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2809-0204-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-3009-03 --08-3104-1204-18 --04-0204-1904-0408-3005-0304-2003-2603-2609-0209-0104-2609-0205-1103-1804-15 -- -- --04-0803-2808-3104-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0505-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2009-0304-1104-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0509-0203-2904-1504-2009-0203-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0108-2209-0203-2604-1304-1903-2405-0309-0204-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1008-3004-07 -- --09-0103-2609-0306-1404-1303-2503-2508-25 --04-0304-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-3003-2509-0204-2903-2504-2004-1803-2604-2609-0204-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-1008-0204-1004-2009-0104-2209-0109-0303-3107-2704-2904-1404-14 --04-0703-3004-2204-1004-0505-2403-1904-21 --04-20 --05-1404-17 --04-1304-1404-0505-0704-2009-0109-0104-1804-2209-0304-2103-2609-0104-2004-2309-0305-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0908-2904-2603-2109-0204-1803-2709-0304-1403-29 --04-1504-1403-3009-0304-2004-2404-1003-3008-2604-0604-0508-2907-2609-0303-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0609-0103-2705-1304-2703-2504-2203-2508-0303-2409-0303-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-1804-20 --04-1904-1403-1709-0105-0304-1509-0209-0304-1404-1409-0204-1504-1608-3003-2904-2004-1309-02
Peak daily increment 5 8 14 18 12 22 13 6 19 14 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 30 167 30 21 6 8 20 8 77 11 9 51 7 16 12 12 8 21 6 9 6 19 11 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 24 5 11 49 9 15 19 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 16 6 32 6 12 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 43 13 7 24 9 11 23 29 17 20 16 16 16 18 23 9 16 12 32 95 75 6 37 8 10 23 24 4 5 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 32 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 68 37 7 18 13 10 39 21 14 33 18 12 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 7 4 30 6 7 14 2 3 37 33 21 7 22 8 8 47 21 18 27 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 10 8 8 23 17 15 10 8 12 18 7 7 21 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 13 16 39 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 15 22 10 15 9 28 31 5 32 35 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 14 11 14 19 24 37 10 13 48 8 15 25 12 10 12 6 16 10 11
Days since peak 152 146 15 138 158 153 150 157 170 12 144 170 149 171 123 165 149 168 11 14 155 149 165 148 163 15 134 147 172 172 12 13 141 12 126 180 152 159 170 14 159 146 169 150 128 151 164 168 132 145 132 134 129 160 150 156 134 148 165 147 11 156 147 171 164 145 167 173 175 149 151 148 124 157 171 144 142 150 152 155 146 146 151 151 145 151 144 174 168 173 173 150 168 149 139 126 171 104 168 151 148 152 168 126 170 162 12 169 152 147 12 173 147 173 144 152 142 149 172 75 23 12 172 154 148 174 134 12 150 146 183 177 134 157 15 160 13 172 11 92 154 173 173 20 164 140 176 168 113 169 175 133 173 171 144 145 171 146 132 168 173 12 138 173 147 149 172 141 12 149 133 145 169 159 157 43 157 147 13 145 13 11 167 49 138 153 153 160 168 145 157 162 113 179 146 147 123 150 154 153 162 130 147 13 13 149 145 11 146 172 13 147 144 11 111 175 152 166 150 173 139 138 174 145 171 128 16 141 177 12 149 171 11 153 169 152 153 168 11 147 143 157 168 19 161 162 16 50 11 177 160 152 125 153 145 165 154 150 173 156 150 161 13 171 124 140 173 145 173 42 174 11 174 164 154 149 43 127 160 149 147 148 153 181 13 134 152 12 11 153 153 12 152 151 15 169 147 154 12
Last total 227 432 525 391 687 1381 885 296 1007 2077 2285 664 936 995 687 460 1525 1241 8506 705 2164 1186 420 3513 517 1040 464 7302 549 539 2087 341 993 1661 456 1755 634 358 565 816 1917 1423 431 938 393 758 824 395 1432 1029 843 500 790 2595 2330 578 327 371 812 784 384 483 1071 242 3928 1944 314 508 2134 656 674 786 335 1523 289 2193 726 747 1613 1996 217 281 560 492 298 489 1824 769 950 505 477 233 558 1541 586 386 488 300 345 529 830 186 538 1676 456 600 252 660 434 1163 650 891 379 1031 483 1066 420 887 1589 303 756 187 405 1279 978 633 543 1437 641 594 1481 992 651 753 449 761 788 765 888 1672 894 3571 1336 1746 976 5725 6297 415 1457 471 388 3728 1853 715 156 286 5233 445 1173 246 188 1097 238 367 689 1235 1046 377 563 501 2085 922 1698 147 686 269 440 298 830 234 1039 1168 381 376 1957 1851 376 1575 990 659 3417 1099 1057 1731 826 603 1752 914 1531 828 464 880 258 732 301 2656 329 479 221 2379 513 403 492 654 123 157 2300 2571 660 431 1969 434 437 5238 1604 831 1313 489 272 433 485 922 125 737 504 662 377 321 678 672 377 478 1293 1067 813 1779 453 680 1576 675 442 393 2235 1150 1862 590 312 2319 491 1141 610 1330 2389 419 378 244 744 683 573 296 951 436 660 408 319 68 1191 1906 553 343 569 2336 1875 1298 1591 1781 520 700 554 535 468 520 555 79 885 212 599 592 1065 2639 1532 531 607 2765 444 678 1908 463 485 522 572 753 467 1070
Last daily increment 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 1 0 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 45 14 16 3 1 43 0 1 0 28 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 14 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 11 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 20 14 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 9 1 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 1 1 2 3 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 4 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 20 16 0 1 34 23 0 0 2 2 20 1 1 0 0 59 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 18 1 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 14 0 8 1 3 24 0 11 0 0 1 4 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 7 0 3 4 2 1 1 0 0 29 3 0 0 13 3 0 16 0 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 1 5 0 0 3 0 0 15 3 3 1 13 0 4 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 1 0 7 7 1 0 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 30 0 0 5 17 0 0 13 0 0 1 3 2 0 4
Last week 8 6 11 8 24 2 17 2 51 53 50 27 19 5 5 7 23 17 664 55 116 41 17 416 3 38 19 368 4 8 53 7 49 34 5 29 15 15 21 72 128 79 7 35 11 7 2 19 33 53 10 12 15 66 67 9 9 9 41 8 7 14 42 6 147 90 18 5 29 11 19 13 9 33 2 48 17 3 64 55 0 6 5 5 12 11 52 25 8 3 3 5 11 63 12 6 9 9 6 6 6 6 19 143 12 5 3 7 8 33 11 85 23 31 21 48 4 17 36 5 31 5 12 54 18 24 30 39 20 16 75 15 72 9 6 25 29 23 2 10 23 244 123 43 21 437 227 3 30 12 16 423 37 5 0 9 353 16 14 5 9 26 3 5 8 31 14 6 10 15 159 16 57 4 15 8 13 16 21 0 12 73 5 2 48 76 8 69 20 49 207 25 62 27 36 13 124 7 86 15 7 20 12 22 6 159 9 62 0 76 52 21 27 11 2 3 184 130 21 6 114 32 4 176 22 22 106 5 9 7 9 30 0 1 21 7 2 7 7 42 6 18 114 16 21 41 23 45 147 23 12 23 91 35 50 6 4 149 4 17 9 14 155 16 6 5 13 4 9 8 8 9 11 10 0 5 42 78 8 5 10 80 72 54 47 148 18 13 8 6 9 17 6 1 28 12 8 21 27 137 30 7 56 212 9 10 97 5 10 9 15 43 11 45
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- --04-16 --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-22 -- -- --03-25 --04-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-15 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-29 -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- -- --03-31 -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-25 -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-15 -- -- -- -- -- --04-17 -- -- -- -- -- --04-21
Previous peak daily increment 47 95 56 25 38 21 43 39 75 33 25 35 69 44 31 48 27 25 28 53 28 30
Low between peaks 1 10 27 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 2 2 11 1 2 0 2 1 1 2 1 1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast DevonEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-14 227 432 525 391 687 885 1007 2077 2285 664 936 460 1525 1241 8506 705 2164 1186 420 3513 1040 464 7302 539 2087 341 993 1661 1755 634 358 565 816 1917 1423 431 938 393 758 395 1432 1029 843 500 790 2595 2330 578 327 371 812 784 384 483 1071 242 3928 1944 314 2134 656 674 786 335 1523 2193 726 1613 1996 281 298 489 1824 769 950 558 1541 586 386 488 300 345 529 830 186 538 1676 456 660 434 1163 650 891 379 1031 483 1066 887 1589 756 405 1279 978 633 543 1437 641 594 1481 992 651 753 449 761 788 765 1672 894 3571 1336 1746 976 5725 6297 1457 471 388 3728 1853 286 5233 445 1173 188 1097 689 1235 1046 377 563 501 2085 922 1698 686 269 440 298 830 1039 1168 1957 1851 376 1575 990 659 3417 1099 1057 1731 826 603 1752 914 1531 828 464 880 258 732 301 2656 329 479 2379 513 403 492 654 2300 2571 660 431 1969 434 5238 1604 831 1313 272 433 485 922 504 662 321 678 672 377 478 1293 1067 813 1779 453 680 1576 675 442 393 2235 1150 1862 590 2319 1141 610 1330 2389 419 378 744 573 296 951 436 660 408 1191 1906 553 569 2336 1875 1298 1591 1781 520 700 554 535 468 520 555 885 212 599 592 1065 2639 1532 531 607 2765 444 678 1908 485 522 572 753 467 1070
2020-09-15 228 433 531 392 694 887 1014 2099 2292 667 940 462 1532 1245 8551 719 2172 1192 423 3659 1042 467 7330 541 2095 342 995 1669 1761 637 360 570 853 1937 1435 439 947 394 759 397 1436 1037 845 502 792 2599 2339 582 328 373 816 785 385 487 1073 243 3949 1950 317 2141 658 676 789 337 1528 2193 729 1625 2005 282 300 491 1829 773 952 561 1550 588 388 490 301 346 529 831 187 541 1695 457 661 437 1168 652 906 381 1045 486 1073 893 1597 758 406 1284 983 638 544 1444 643 595 1491 993 663 754 450 766 798 769 1675 898 3648 1369 1754 979 5761 6347 1463 473 393 3882 1859 291 5326 448 1175 190 1101 691 1242 1050 379 565 503 2121 925 1709 693 270 442 302 831 1049 1182 1965 1860 378 1599 992 664 3444 1103 1065 1738 831 606 1772 917 1535 832 466 883 259 736 302 2692 330 479 2393 519 405 495 656 2337 2579 665 432 1986 436 5283 1608 835 1324 273 435 487 927 505 664 322 679 679 378 482 1300 1070 816 1786 457 685 1604 680 444 395 2251 1156 1870 592 2335 1144 611 1339 2399 422 379 747 575 297 952 438 662 408 1200 1918 555 571 2347 1878 1304 1612 1806 522 702 556 537 470 524 557 886 213 601 595 1071 2660 1538 532 613 2797 448 680 1930 486 524 576 755 469 1072
2020-09-16 230 435 536 393 700 890 1020 2114 2299 670 943 464 1538 1249 8598 732 2180 1197 425 3761 1045 469 7360 544 2104 344 998 1678 1767 640 362 574 870 1958 1447 439 952 394 761 400 1440 1045 847 504 794 2610 2348 586 330 375 820 787 385 491 1074 244 3969 1956 320 2148 660 679 793 338 1534 2195 733 1636 2014 284 301 493 1834 778 954 564 1559 591 389 492 303 348 530 833 188 544 1714 459 663 440 1173 654 920 384 1050 489 1080 898 1605 759 408 1289 987 643 546 1452 645 596 1502 994 675 755 451 771 808 773 1678 902 3696 1392 1763 981 5798 6395 1468 476 398 4004 1865 296 5396 451 1178 191 1104 693 1250 1054 380 568 506 2144 929 1719 699 272 445 306 832 1052 1195 1974 1869 380 1621 995 669 3471 1107 1074 1744 836 609 1792 919 1539 835 468 886 261 741 302 2726 331 481 2406 525 407 499 657 2375 2588 670 433 2004 438 5328 1612 838 1336 275 437 490 931 507 666 324 681 686 379 486 1308 1072 819 1794 461 691 1632 684 446 398 2267 1161 1879 594 2351 1147 613 1343 2410 424 380 749 578 298 953 440 665 409 1209 1930 557 573 2359 1881 1311 1621 1832 525 705 558 539 472 527 558 888 214 603 598 1076 2682 1544 533 619 2831 451 683 1952 487 527 579 757 471 1074
2020-09-17 231 436 542 395 706 892 1027 2130 2305 672 946 467 1544 1252 8641 745 2187 1203 427 3875 1048 472 7389 546 2112 345 1000 1686 1773 643 364 579 890 1977 1458 442 959 395 762 402 1444 1053 849 507 796 2620 2357 589 331 377 825 788 386 495 1076 245 3988 1962 323 2155 663 681 796 340 1539 2199 736 1647 2023 285 303 495 1839 782 956 567 1568 593 391 494 305 349 530 834 188 548 1733 460 664 443 1179 657 934 386 1057 492 1087 904 1612 761 409 1294 991 647 548 1458 648 596 1511 995 688 757 452 776 815 777 1681 905 3765 1413 1772 984 5834 6445 1474 478 402 4116 1871 301 5465 454 1180 193 1108 695 1257 1057 381 570 508 2177 933 1730 705 273 447 310 833 1053 1209 1983 1878 382 1643 997 674 3497 1110 1082 1751 842 612 1812 922 1544 839 469 888 262 745 303 2760 332 487 2419 532 410 502 659 2402 2595 675 435 2021 440 5372 1617 842 1347 276 439 492 936 508 668 325 682 692 380 491 1315 1075 822 1801 465 697 1659 688 448 400 2282 1166 1887 595 2367 1149 614 1346 2420 427 381 752 580 299 954 442 667 409 1218 1942 559 575 2370 1884 1317 1636 1857 527 708 560 541 474 531 559 889 214 604 600 1082 2704 1550 534 624 2863 454 685 1973 488 529 583 760 472 1077
2020-09-18 232 438 547 396 713 894 1034 2140 2312 675 950 469 1549 1256 8688 758 2194 1209 429 3975 1050 474 7420 549 2120 347 1003 1695 1778 646 366 583 906 1998 1470 443 968 395 763 405 1448 1061 852 510 798 2631 2366 593 333 379 829 790 387 500 1078 245 4008 1967 326 2163 665 683 800 341 1544 2201 739 1659 2032 286 304 497 1845 786 958 570 1577 595 392 496 306 350 531 836 189 551 1752 461 666 446 1184 659 948 388 1061 495 1094 909 1620 763 410 1299 996 652 549 1465 650 597 1521 996 700 758 452 781 821 781 1684 909 3818 1431 1781 986 5871 6496 1480 480 407 4228 1877 306 5542 457 1182 195 1112 697 1264 1061 383 573 511 2206 936 1740 710 274 449 314 834 1058 1222 1992 1886 385 1664 1000 679 3522 1114 1090 1757 847 614 1832 925 1549 843 471 891 264 750 304 2793 333 488 2432 538 412 505 660 2432 2603 681 436 2038 442 5417 1621 846 1358 278 441 494 941 509 670 327 684 699 382 495 1322 1078 825 1809 469 703 1686 692 450 403 2298 1172 1895 597 2383 1152 616 1346 2430 429 381 755 583 300 955 444 669 410 1227 1954 561 577 2381 1888 1324 1648 1883 530 710 563 543 476 535 561 890 215 606 603 1088 2725 1556 535 630 2896 457 687 1995 489 532 586 762 474 1079
2020-09-19 233 439 553 397 719 897 1041 2146 2319 678 953 471 1550 1260 8735 772 2201 1214 432 4071 1053 476 7450 551 2128 348 1006 1704 1784 649 368 587 928 2018 1482 444 973 396 764 407 1452 1068 854 512 800 2648 2375 597 334 382 832 791 387 504 1079 246 4027 1973 329 2170 667 685 803 343 1549 2206 742 1670 2041 288 306 499 1850 791 960 574 1586 598 394 498 308 352 531 837 190 554 1770 463 667 449 1189 661 963 390 1070 498 1102 915 1628 764 412 1304 1000 657 551 1473 652 598 1531 997 713 759 453 786 824 786 1687 912 3873 1451 1790 989 5908 6546 1486 482 411 4349 1884 311 5609 460 1185 196 1115 700 1271 1065 384 575 513 2237 940 1751 716 276 451 318 835 1058 1235 2002 1894 387 1685 1002 684 3548 1118 1099 1764 852 617 1852 928 1554 847 473 894 265 755 304 2826 334 498 2445 544 414 508 662 2452 2612 686 437 2056 444 5462 1626 849 1369 279 442 496 945 511 672 328 685 706 383 499 1329 1080 828 1816 472 709 1713 696 452 405 2314 1177 1904 599 2398 1155 617 1349 2440 432 382 757 585 301 956 446 671 410 1236 1966 563 579 2392 1891 1330 1652 1909 532 713 565 545 478 538 562 892 216 608 606 1094 2747 1563 536 636 2930 460 689 2016 490 534 590 764 476 1081
2020-09-20 235 441 558 398 725 899 1048 2149 2325 681 957 474 1553 1264 8782 785 2207 1220 434 4143 1056 479 7481 554 2136 350 1009 1713 1790 652 369 591 946 2038 1494 445 974 396 766 409 1455 1076 856 513 802 2653 2383 600 336 384 836 793 388 508 1081 247 4046 1979 332 2177 670 687 805 344 1554 2207 745 1681 2050 289 307 501 1855 795 962 577 1595 600 396 500 309 353 532 837 191 557 1789 464 668 452 1194 663 977 392 1073 501 1109 920 1635 766 413 1310 1005 662 552 1480 654 598 1541 998 726 760 454 791 825 790 1690 916 3915 1467 1799 992 5946 6597 1492 485 415 4427 1890 315 5645 463 1187 198 1119 702 1279 1069 385 577 515 2261 944 1761 722 277 453 322 836 1058 1249 2011 1903 389 1706 1004 689 3574 1122 1107 1770 857 620 1872 931 1559 851 475 897 267 759 305 2860 335 505 2458 550 416 512 663 2473 2620 691 438 2073 446 5507 1630 853 1381 281 444 498 950 512 674 329 687 713 384 503 1336 1083 831 1824 476 716 1740 700 454 408 2330 1183 1912 601 2414 1158 619 1350 2450 434 383 760 588 302 957 448 673 411 1245 1978 565 581 2403 1895 1337 1656 1935 534 715 567 547 480 542 564 893 217 609 609 1100 2768 1569 537 642 2964 463 691 2038 491 537 594 766 477 1084
2020-09-21 236 442 563 400 731 901 1054 2153 2332 683 960 476 1555 1267 8831 799 2214 1226 436 4200 1058 481 7511 556 2145 351 1012 1721 1796 655 371 595 952 2059 1506 447 980 396 767 412 1459 1084 858 513 804 2664 2392 604 337 386 840 794 389 512 1082 248 4065 1985 335 2185 672 689 806 346 1560 2216 748 1693 2059 290 309 503 1860 800 964 580 1604 602 397 502 311 354 532 837 191 560 1808 465 670 455 1200 665 991 395 1076 504 1116 926 1643 768 414 1315 1009 666 554 1487 656 599 1551 999 739 761 455 796 828 794 1693 920 3939 1486 1809 994 5984 6648 1498 487 420 4460 1896 320 5699 465 1189 200 1122 704 1286 1073 387 580 518 2279 947 1772 728 279 456 326 837 1059 1263 2021 1911 391 1727 1007 694 3601 1126 1115 1777 862 623 1892 934 1564 855 476 900 268 764 306 2894 336 513 2471 556 417 515 664 2504 2628 696 439 2091 448 5552 1635 856 1392 282 446 500 954 513 676 331 688 720 385 507 1344 1086 834 1831 480 722 1768 704 455 410 2346 1188 1921 603 2430 1161 620 1352 2460 437 384 762 590 303 958 450 675 411 1254 1990 567 582 2414 1898 1343 1661 1962 537 718 569 549 482 546 565 895 218 611 611 1106 2790 1575 538 647 2998 466 693 2060 492 539 597 768 479 1086

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast DevonEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-14 227 432 525 391 687 885 1007 2077 2285 664 936 460 1525 1241 8506 705 2164 1186 420 3513 1040 464 7302 539 2087 341 993 1661 1755 634 358 565 816 1917 1423 431 938 393 758 395 1432 1029 843 500 790 2595 2330 578 327 371 812 784 384 483 1071 242 3928 1944 314 2134 656 674 786 335 1523 2193 726 1613 1996 281 298 489 1824 769 950 558 1541 586 386 488 300 345 529 830 186 538 1676 456 660 434 1163 650 891 379 1031 483 1066 887 1589 756 405 1279 978 633 543 1437 641 594 1481 992 651 753 449 761 788 765 1672 894 3571 1336 1746 976 5725 6297 1457 471 388 3728 1853 286 5233 445 1173 188 1097 689 1235 1046 377 563 501 2085 922 1698 686 269 440 298 830 1039 1168 1957 1851 376 1575 990 659 3417 1099 1057 1731 826 603 1752 914 1531 828 464 880 258 732 301 2656 329 479 2379 513 403 492 654 2300 2571 660 431 1969 434 5238 1604 831 1313 272 433 485 922 504 662 321 678 672 377 478 1293 1067 813 1779 453 680 1576 675 442 393 2235 1150 1862 590 2319 1141 610 1330 2389 419 378 744 573 296 951 436 660 408 1191 1906 553 569 2336 1875 1298 1591 1781 520 700 554 535 468 520 555 885 212 599 592 1065 2639 1532 531 607 2765 444 678 1908 485 522 572 753 467 1070
2020-09-15 229 433 526 392 692 888 1014 2087 2291 668 939 462 1528 1242 8601 715 2187 1191 424 3581 1048 466 7349 540 2094 342 998 1668 1759 636 360 569 831 1935 1434 433 945 394 759 396 1436 1036 844 502 791 2602 2338 580 328 372 818 785 385 485 1077 243 3952 1957 317 2138 657 677 787 336 1527 2198 729 1623 2003 282 300 491 1830 772 952 560 1548 587 386 490 301 346 530 830 187 542 1695 458 661 435 1167 651 904 381 1038 485 1071 890 1594 760 406 1285 980 636 546 1444 643 597 1489 993 661 754 449 764 790 769 1673 897 3618 1357 1752 980 5774 6339 1462 473 390 3794 1859 289 5293 448 1174 190 1100 690 1242 1048 378 565 502 2112 924 1709 688 270 442 301 832 1042 1181 1963 1861 377 1586 992 664 3443 1102 1066 1734 830 606 1771 915 1541 830 465 883 259 736 302 2677 330 488 2393 520 406 495 655 2335 2593 664 432 1985 439 5267 1607 833 1332 273 434 487 926 508 664 322 679 677 378 483 1305 1069 815 1785 456 685 1598 678 444 396 2249 1154 1870 592 2342 1143 611 1332 2418 421 379 747 575 297 952 437 662 409 1198 1916 554 570 2347 1883 1303 1600 1803 523 702 555 535 470 522 556 890 214 600 594 1069 2663 1536 531 613 2803 446 679 1929 487 522 575 757 469 1076
2020-09-16 230 435 528 394 698 890 1022 2100 2300 671 943 465 1533 1246 8746 724 2210 1197 428 3673 1058 469 7412 543 2104 344 1004 1678 1766 641 363 574 846 1958 1449 435 951 397 761 398 1440 1044 846 504 792 2613 2350 583 330 374 825 786 386 490 1082 244 3982 1974 320 2147 659 679 788 338 1533 2203 733 1636 2013 283 302 494 1839 777 954 563 1560 590 388 493 303 347 531 831 187 546 1718 460 662 437 1172 653 915 384 1044 489 1080 896 1603 766 407 1295 983 641 550 1452 647 600 1499 996 676 755 450 770 798 773 1676 901 3657 1379 1763 984 5857 6386 1469 476 394 3873 1865 292 5353 452 1178 191 1105 692 1250 1053 379 568 505 2139 928 1723 691 272 445 306 836 1046 1196 1973 1871 379 1602 995 673 3475 1107 1075 1741 835 609 1794 918 1558 834 467 887 261 740 302 2705 331 495 2409 527 409 498 656 2373 2619 669 433 2005 446 5307 1612 838 1354 275 437 490 931 513 666 324 680 684 379 487 1323 1073 819 1793 461 692 1623 683 446 399 2268 1160 1880 594 2371 1146 612 1335 2449 424 381 750 577 298 953 439 664 411 1208 1927 556 572 2360 1895 1311 1611 1834 526 704 557 536 472 527 557 894 217 602 598 1076 2684 1543 533 620 2850 447 681 1947 489 524 578 763 471 1084
2020-09-17 232 436 530 396 702 892 1032 2114 2309 674 946 468 1539 1249 8892 733 2230 1203 431 3772 1067 472 7476 545 2114 345 1011 1687 1773 644 365 580 861 1982 1465 438 957 399 762 401 1443 1052 847 506 793 2625 2362 586 331 376 830 788 386 494 1088 245 4011 1991 323 2155 661 682 790 339 1539 2211 738 1649 2021 284 304 496 1846 782 956 566 1573 592 389 495 304 349 532 833 188 549 1741 462 664 439 1178 655 926 386 1052 493 1090 902 1610 773 408 1307 986 647 555 1460 650 603 1510 998 691 756 451 776 805 777 1678 905 3711 1401 1775 987 5943 6426 1476 478 398 3949 1872 295 5415 456 1180 193 1109 694 1257 1057 380 571 508 2171 932 1738 694 273 447 310 840 1050 1210 1983 1880 381 1617 997 681 3507 1111 1083 1748 841 612 1818 921 1574 838 468 891 262 745 303 2735 332 507 2424 534 411 502 659 2407 2643 675 434 2025 453 5347 1617 842 1377 277 439 493 936 517 668 325 682 692 380 491 1340 1075 822 1800 467 700 1652 687 448 403 2286 1166 1887 596 2400 1150 614 1337 2481 426 382 753 580 299 953 441 667 413 1216 1939 558 574 2371 1908 1321 1624 1866 529 707 560 539 474 531 559 900 219 604 603 1083 2703 1550 533 629 2893 450 684 1967 492 526 581 768 473 1092
2020-09-18 233 438 532 398 705 894 1040 2124 2318 678 950 469 1544 1252 9041 741 2251 1209 434 3864 1076 475 7540 548 2123 347 1018 1697 1779 645 367 586 875 2005 1480 440 965 401 763 403 1447 1059 849 508 794 2637 2374 588 333 378 834 789 387 498 1093 246 4036 2008 326 2164 663 685 793 341 1545 2216 743 1662 2030 286 306 499 1853 787 958 570 1585 595 391 498 306 350 533 833 189 553 1764 464 665 441 1183 657 937 389 1058 496 1100 907 1615 780 409 1319 989 653 559 1469 654 604 1520 1001 706 757 452 782 812 782 1680 909 3758 1422 1784 989 6032 6468 1483 481 401 4027 1878 297 5479 460 1184 195 1113 697 1264 1061 382 575 510 2201 936 1751 698 274 450 315 844 1055 1224 1994 1889 383 1632 1000 690 3539 1116 1091 1752 846 615 1841 924 1591 842 470 895 264 749 304 2772 333 512 2436 541 414 506 660 2442 2663 679 434 2045 460 5388 1622 846 1400 279 440 495 940 520 671 327 683 701 382 495 1358 1078 826 1807 472 708 1674 692 450 406 2305 1172 1894 598 2429 1153 615 1339 2514 428 384 757 583 300 954 444 669 414 1222 1949 560 575 2382 1920 1330 1636 1898 531 710 562 540 477 536 560 903 222 605 607 1090 2722 1557 534 637 2932 451 686 1985 495 528 584 774 475 1099
2020-09-19 234 439 534 401 709 896 1047 2132 2326 681 954 472 1547 1255 9193 749 2267 1215 437 3953 1086 478 7604 550 2132 348 1025 1707 1786 647 368 591 891 2029 1496 442 970 404 765 405 1451 1067 850 510 795 2650 2385 591 334 380 837 791 387 502 1098 247 4061 2025 329 2172 665 688 795 343 1551 2223 747 1675 2040 287 307 501 1859 792 960 573 1597 597 392 501 308 352 534 834 190 555 1788 466 667 443 1189 658 948 391 1066 500 1108 912 1622 787 410 1329 993 659 563 1476 656 606 1530 1003 722 758 453 788 816 786 1682 914 3789 1443 1793 990 6112 6503 1490 483 405 4108 1884 300 5541 464 1186 196 1117 699 1274 1066 383 578 511 2233 940 1766 700 276 453 319 848 1060 1239 2004 1899 385 1646 1003 699 3572 1120 1099 1757 852 618 1865 927 1608 846 472 898 265 753 305 2784 334 524 2450 549 416 509 661 2472 2683 684 435 2066 468 5428 1628 850 1422 280 442 498 945 523 673 328 685 707 383 499 1376 1081 829 1812 477 716 1697 696 452 409 2322 1178 1901 600 2458 1156 617 1344 2547 431 385 760 586 301 955 446 671 415 1230 1960 562 577 2392 1932 1338 1643 1931 534 712 564 542 479 540 561 908 225 607 610 1096 2740 1564 535 643 2970 453 689 2002 498 530 587 780 477 1107
2020-09-20 235 441 536 403 714 898 1054 2139 2336 683 957 474 1550 1258 9348 757 2286 1221 439 4040 1095 482 7669 552 2142 350 1030 1716 1792 651 370 597 907 2054 1512 444 973 406 766 407 1455 1074 851 512 796 2663 2397 594 336 382 841 793 388 507 1103 247 4086 2043 332 2181 666 691 797 344 1556 2229 752 1688 2047 288 309 502 1866 798 962 576 1609 599 394 503 309 353 535 835 191 559 1812 468 669 445 1194 660 958 394 1072 503 1118 919 1629 794 411 1342 995 665 568 1484 659 607 1541 1005 738 758 454 795 820 791 1684 918 3818 1465 1799 992 6195 6537 1496 486 409 4179 1889 302 5588 468 1188 198 1122 701 1281 1070 385 582 513 2263 944 1777 703 277 455 324 852 1065 1252 2015 1908 387 1661 1005 708 3604 1125 1107 1762 857 621 1889 930 1625 851 473 900 267 758 306 2801 335 533 2465 556 419 513 662 2503 2702 690 436 2086 475 5470 1633 854 1444 282 445 500 950 527 675 330 687 716 384 502 1395 1084 833 1817 482 724 1722 700 455 411 2339 1184 1908 602 2488 1159 619 1347 2577 433 387 762 589 302 955 448 674 416 1238 1968 565 578 2398 1944 1343 1652 1964 536 715 566 544 481 545 562 913 227 608 613 1102 2759 1571 535 650 3007 454 691 2019 501 532 591 785 479 1114
2020-09-21 236 442 538 404 720 901 1064 2151 2345 687 961 477 1556 1261 9505 766 2311 1227 443 4156 1104 485 7735 556 2152 352 1037 1726 1799 654 372 603 921 2078 1528 446 980 408 767 409 1458 1082 853 513 797 2678 2410 597 337 384 846 794 389 511 1108 248 4117 2060 335 2189 668 694 799 345 1561 2237 756 1701 2061 289 311 503 1872 802 965 580 1621 602 395 507 311 355 536 836 191 562 1837 470 670 446 1199 661 969 396 1080 507 1127 930 1636 801 411 1353 1000 671 572 1492 662 609 1551 1008 754 759 455 801 828 795 1685 922 3847 1489 1812 994 6297 6584 1503 489 413 4245 1895 307 5654 472 1190 200 1126 703 1289 1074 386 585 517 2290 948 1793 707 279 458 329 855 1069 1268 2026 1917 390 1680 1007 717 3637 1130 1115 1771 863 625 1913 934 1642 855 475 902 268 763 306 2824 336 543 2481 564 421 516 664 2541 2727 699 437 2107 483 5511 1638 858 1466 283 447 504 955 530 677 331 688 725 385 507 1414 1087 836 1825 487 732 1750 705 457 414 2362 1190 1916 604 2519 1162 620 1349 2611 436 389 766 592 303 956 450 677 417 1252 1979 567 579 2412 1957 1350 1665 1998 538 717 568 546 484 550 564 919 230 610 617 1108 2776 1578 536 657 3054 456 694 2041 504 534 594 791 481 1122

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    2020-10-13 Moved to a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.