COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-14

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	04-21	08-30	04-29	04-09	04-14	04-17	04-10	03-28	09-02	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-18	03-30	09-03	--	08-31	04-12	04-18	--	04-02	04-19	04-04	08-30	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	09-02	09-01	04-26	09-02	05-11	03-18	04-15	--	--	--	04-08	03-28	08-31	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	05-09	04-16	04-03	03-30	05-05	04-22	05-05	05-03	05-08	04-07	04-17	04-11	05-03	04-19	04-02	04-20	09-03	04-11	04-20	03-27	04-03	04-22	03-31	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	04-10	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	03-30	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	06-02	03-30	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	09-02	03-29	04-15	04-20	09-02	03-25	04-20	03-25	04-23	04-15	04-25	04-18	03-26	07-01	08-22	09-02	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	09-02	04-17	04-21	03-15	03-21	05-03	04-10	08-30	04-07	--	--	09-01	03-26	09-03	06-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	08-25	--	04-03	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-29	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	03-27	04-21	05-05	03-30	03-25	09-02	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	03-26	04-26	09-02	04-18	05-04	04-22	03-29	04-08	04-10	08-02	04-10	04-20	09-01	04-22	09-01	09-03	03-31	07-27	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	03-30	04-22	04-10	04-05	05-24	03-19	04-21	--	04-20	--	05-14	04-17	--	04-13	04-14	04-05	05-07	04-20	09-01	09-01	04-18	04-22	09-03	04-21	03-26	09-01	04-20	04-23	09-03	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	08-29	04-26	03-21	09-02	04-18	03-27	09-03	04-14	03-29	--	04-15	04-14	03-30	09-03	04-20	04-24	04-10	03-30	08-26	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	09-03	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-22	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	09-01	03-27	05-13	04-27	03-25	04-22	03-25	08-03	03-24	09-03	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	04-20	--	04-19	04-14	03-17	09-01	05-03	04-15	09-02	09-03	04-14	04-14	09-02	04-15	04-16	08-30	03-29	04-20	04-13	09-02
Peak daily increment	5	8	14	18	12	22	13	6	19	14	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	30	167		30	21	6		8	20	8	77	11	9	51	7	16	12	12	8	21	6	9				6	19	11	15	25	6	19	14	16	12	12	40	31	9	14	7	12	23	8	7	17	4	68	24	5	11	49	9	15	19	5	19	9	35	15	11	25	34	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	16	10	6	8	25	14	8	8	6	6	11	13	4	12	36	7	14	7	10	14	25	13	16	6	32	6	12	10	12	29	6	14	2	9	28	43	13	7	24	9	11	23	29	17	20	16	16	16	18	23	9	16			12	32	95	75	6	37	8	10		23	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13	20	18	12	8	6	32	17	43	4	12	5	10	6	18	15	19	20	10	5	68	37	7	18	13	10	39	21	14	33	18	12		22	29	14	9	17	4	15	11		7		4	30		6	7	14	2	3	37	33	21	7	22	8	8	47	21	18	27	15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18	10	8	8	23	17	15	10	8	12		18	7	7	21	17	27	14	9	48	9	28	13	16	39	7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	15	22	10	15	9	28	31	5	32	35	9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	14		11	14	19	24	37	10	13	48	8	15	25	12	10	12	6	16	10	11
Days since peak	152	146	15	138	158	153	150	157	170	12	144	170	149	171	123	165	149	168	11		14	155	149		165	148	163	15	134	147	172	172	12	13	141	12	126	180	152				159	170	14	159	146	169	150	128	151	164	168	132	145	132	134	129	160	150	156	134	148	165	147	11	156	147	171	164	145	167	173	175	149	151	148	124	157	171	144	142	150	152	155	146	146	151	151	145	151	144	174	168	173	173	150	168	149	139	126	171	104	168	151	148	152	168	126	170	162	12	169	152	147	12	173	147	173	144	152	142	149	172	75	23	12	172	154	148	174	134	12	150	146	183	177	134	157	15	160			13	172	11	92	154	173	173	20		164	140	176	168		113	169	175	133	173	171	144	145	171	146	132	168	173	12	138	173	147	149	172	141	12	149	133	145	169	159	157	43	157	147	13	145	13	11	167	49	138	153	153		160	168	145	157	162	113	179	146		147		123	150		154	153	162	130	147	13	13	149	145	11	146	172	13	147	144	11	111	175	152	166	150	173	139	138	174	145	171	128	16	141	177	12	149	171	11	153	169		152	153	168	11	147	143	157	168	19	161	162	16	50	11	177	160	152	125	153	145	165	154	150	173	156	150	161	13	171	124	140	173	145	173	42	174	11	174	164	154	149	43	127	160	149	147		148	153	181	13	134	152	12	11	153	153	12	152	151	15	169	147	154	12
Last total	227	432	525	391	687	1381	885	296	1007	2077	2285	664	936	995	687	460	1525	1241	8506	705	2164	1186	420	3513	517	1040	464	7302	549	539	2087	341	993	1661	456	1755	634	358	565	816	1917	1423	431	938	393	758	824	395	1432	1029	843	500	790	2595	2330	578	327	371	812	784	384	483	1071	242	3928	1944	314	508	2134	656	674	786	335	1523	289	2193	726	747	1613	1996	217	281	560	492	298	489	1824	769	950	505	477	233	558	1541	586	386	488	300	345	529	830	186	538	1676	456	600	252	660	434	1163	650	891	379	1031	483	1066	420	887	1589	303	756	187	405	1279	978	633	543	1437	641	594	1481	992	651	753	449	761	788	765	888	1672	894	3571	1336	1746	976	5725	6297	415	1457	471	388	3728	1853	715	156	286	5233	445	1173	246	188	1097	238	367	689	1235	1046	377	563	501	2085	922	1698	147	686	269	440	298	830	234	1039	1168	381	376	1957	1851	376	1575	990	659	3417	1099	1057	1731	826	603	1752	914	1531	828	464	880	258	732	301	2656	329	479	221	2379	513	403	492	654	123	157	2300	2571	660	431	1969	434	437	5238	1604	831	1313	489	272	433	485	922	125	737	504	662	377	321	678	672	377	478	1293	1067	813	1779	453	680	1576	675	442	393	2235	1150	1862	590	312	2319	491	1141	610	1330	2389	419	378	244	744	683	573	296	951	436	660	408	319	68	1191	1906	553	343	569	2336	1875	1298	1591	1781	520	700	554	535	468	520	555	79	885	212	599	592	1065	2639	1532	531	607	2765	444	678	1908	463	485	522	572	753	467	1070
Last daily increment	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	1	0	3	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	45	14	16	3	1	43	0	1	0	28	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	1	1	14	2	1	2	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11	5	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	20	14	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1	1	2	3	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	4	0	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20	16	0	1	34	23	0	0	2	2	20	1	1	0	0	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	18	1	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	14	0	8	1	3	24	0	11	0	0	1	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0	7	0	3	4	2	1	1	0	0	29	3	0	0	13	3	0	16	0	0	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	5	0	0	3	0	0	15	3	3	1	13	0	4	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	22	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	1	1	0	7	7	1	0	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	30	0	0	5	17	0	0	13	0	0	1	3	2	0	4
Last week	8	6	11	8	24	2	17	2	51	53	50	27	19	5	5	7	23	17	664	55	116	41	17	416	3	38	19	368	4	8	53	7	49	34	5	29	15	15	21	72	128	79	7	35	11	7	2	19	33	53	10	12	15	66	67	9	9	9	41	8	7	14	42	6	147	90	18	5	29	11	19	13	9	33	2	48	17	3	64	55	0	6	5	5	12	11	52	25	8	3	3	5	11	63	12	6	9	9	6	6	6	6	19	143	12	5	3	7	8	33	11	85	23	31	21	48	4	17	36	5	31	5	12	54	18	24	30	39	20	16	75	15	72	9	6	25	29	23	2	10	23	244	123	43	21	437	227	3	30	12	16	423	37	5	0	9	353	16	14	5	9	26	3	5	8	31	14	6	10	15	159	16	57	4	15	8	13	16	21	0	12	73	5	2	48	76	8	69	20	49	207	25	62	27	36	13	124	7	86	15	7	20	12	22	6	159	9	62	0	76	52	21	27	11	2	3	184	130	21	6	114	32	4	176	22	22	106	5	9	7	9	30	0	1	21	7	2	7	7	42	6	18	114	16	21	41	23	45	147	23	12	23	91	35	50	6	4	149	4	17	9	14	155	16	6	5	13	4	9	8	8	9	11	10	0	5	42	78	8	5	10	80	72	54	47	148	18	13	8	6	9	17	6	1	28	12	8	21	27	137	30	7	56	212	9	10	97	5	10	9	15	43	11	45
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-29	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-01	--	--	--	--	03-31	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21
Previous peak daily increment										47									95									56						25		38																																																																																21																								43				39		75																									33																	25																																	35			69																						44							31					48					27														25							28																53							28							30
Low between peaks										1									10									27						1		1																																																																																1																								1				0		6																									0																	2																																	2			11																						1							2					0					2														1							1																2							1							1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harrogate	Harrow	Hartlepool	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Mendip	Merton	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Sunderland	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-14	227	432	525	391	687	885	1007	2077	2285	664	936	460	1525	1241	8506	705	2164	1186	420	3513	1040	464	7302	539	2087	341	993	1661	1755	634	358	565	816	1917	1423	431	938	393	758	395	1432	1029	843	500	790	2595	2330	578	327	371	812	784	384	483	1071	242	3928	1944	314	2134	656	674	786	335	1523	2193	726	1613	1996	281	298	489	1824	769	950	558	1541	586	386	488	300	345	529	830	186	538	1676	456	660	434	1163	650	891	379	1031	483	1066	887	1589	756	405	1279	978	633	543	1437	641	594	1481	992	651	753	449	761	788	765	1672	894	3571	1336	1746	976	5725	6297	1457	471	388	3728	1853	286	5233	445	1173	188	1097	689	1235	1046	377	563	501	2085	922	1698	686	269	440	298	830	1039	1168	1957	1851	376	1575	990	659	3417	1099	1057	1731	826	603	1752	914	1531	828	464	880	258	732	301	2656	329	479	2379	513	403	492	654	2300	2571	660	431	1969	434	5238	1604	831	1313	272	433	485	922	504	662	321	678	672	377	478	1293	1067	813	1779	453	680	1576	675	442	393	2235	1150	1862	590	2319	1141	610	1330	2389	419	378	744	573	296	951	436	660	408	1191	1906	553	569	2336	1875	1298	1591	1781	520	700	554	535	468	520	555	885	212	599	592	1065	2639	1532	531	607	2765	444	678	1908	485	522	572	753	467	1070
2020-09-15	228	433	531	392	694	887	1014	2099	2292	667	940	462	1532	1245	8551	719	2172	1192	423	3659	1042	467	7330	541	2095	342	995	1669	1761	637	360	570	853	1937	1435	439	947	394	759	397	1436	1037	845	502	792	2599	2339	582	328	373	816	785	385	487	1073	243	3949	1950	317	2141	658	676	789	337	1528	2193	729	1625	2005	282	300	491	1829	773	952	561	1550	588	388	490	301	346	529	831	187	541	1695	457	661	437	1168	652	906	381	1045	486	1073	893	1597	758	406	1284	983	638	544	1444	643	595	1491	993	663	754	450	766	798	769	1675	898	3648	1369	1754	979	5761	6347	1463	473	393	3882	1859	291	5326	448	1175	190	1101	691	1242	1050	379	565	503	2121	925	1709	693	270	442	302	831	1049	1182	1965	1860	378	1599	992	664	3444	1103	1065	1738	831	606	1772	917	1535	832	466	883	259	736	302	2692	330	479	2393	519	405	495	656	2337	2579	665	432	1986	436	5283	1608	835	1324	273	435	487	927	505	664	322	679	679	378	482	1300	1070	816	1786	457	685	1604	680	444	395	2251	1156	1870	592	2335	1144	611	1339	2399	422	379	747	575	297	952	438	662	408	1200	1918	555	571	2347	1878	1304	1612	1806	522	702	556	537	470	524	557	886	213	601	595	1071	2660	1538	532	613	2797	448	680	1930	486	524	576	755	469	1072
2020-09-16	230	435	536	393	700	890	1020	2114	2299	670	943	464	1538	1249	8598	732	2180	1197	425	3761	1045	469	7360	544	2104	344	998	1678	1767	640	362	574	870	1958	1447	439	952	394	761	400	1440	1045	847	504	794	2610	2348	586	330	375	820	787	385	491	1074	244	3969	1956	320	2148	660	679	793	338	1534	2195	733	1636	2014	284	301	493	1834	778	954	564	1559	591	389	492	303	348	530	833	188	544	1714	459	663	440	1173	654	920	384	1050	489	1080	898	1605	759	408	1289	987	643	546	1452	645	596	1502	994	675	755	451	771	808	773	1678	902	3696	1392	1763	981	5798	6395	1468	476	398	4004	1865	296	5396	451	1178	191	1104	693	1250	1054	380	568	506	2144	929	1719	699	272	445	306	832	1052	1195	1974	1869	380	1621	995	669	3471	1107	1074	1744	836	609	1792	919	1539	835	468	886	261	741	302	2726	331	481	2406	525	407	499	657	2375	2588	670	433	2004	438	5328	1612	838	1336	275	437	490	931	507	666	324	681	686	379	486	1308	1072	819	1794	461	691	1632	684	446	398	2267	1161	1879	594	2351	1147	613	1343	2410	424	380	749	578	298	953	440	665	409	1209	1930	557	573	2359	1881	1311	1621	1832	525	705	558	539	472	527	558	888	214	603	598	1076	2682	1544	533	619	2831	451	683	1952	487	527	579	757	471	1074
2020-09-17	231	436	542	395	706	892	1027	2130	2305	672	946	467	1544	1252	8641	745	2187	1203	427	3875	1048	472	7389	546	2112	345	1000	1686	1773	643	364	579	890	1977	1458	442	959	395	762	402	1444	1053	849	507	796	2620	2357	589	331	377	825	788	386	495	1076	245	3988	1962	323	2155	663	681	796	340	1539	2199	736	1647	2023	285	303	495	1839	782	956	567	1568	593	391	494	305	349	530	834	188	548	1733	460	664	443	1179	657	934	386	1057	492	1087	904	1612	761	409	1294	991	647	548	1458	648	596	1511	995	688	757	452	776	815	777	1681	905	3765	1413	1772	984	5834	6445	1474	478	402	4116	1871	301	5465	454	1180	193	1108	695	1257	1057	381	570	508	2177	933	1730	705	273	447	310	833	1053	1209	1983	1878	382	1643	997	674	3497	1110	1082	1751	842	612	1812	922	1544	839	469	888	262	745	303	2760	332	487	2419	532	410	502	659	2402	2595	675	435	2021	440	5372	1617	842	1347	276	439	492	936	508	668	325	682	692	380	491	1315	1075	822	1801	465	697	1659	688	448	400	2282	1166	1887	595	2367	1149	614	1346	2420	427	381	752	580	299	954	442	667	409	1218	1942	559	575	2370	1884	1317	1636	1857	527	708	560	541	474	531	559	889	214	604	600	1082	2704	1550	534	624	2863	454	685	1973	488	529	583	760	472	1077
2020-09-18	232	438	547	396	713	894	1034	2140	2312	675	950	469	1549	1256	8688	758	2194	1209	429	3975	1050	474	7420	549	2120	347	1003	1695	1778	646	366	583	906	1998	1470	443	968	395	763	405	1448	1061	852	510	798	2631	2366	593	333	379	829	790	387	500	1078	245	4008	1967	326	2163	665	683	800	341	1544	2201	739	1659	2032	286	304	497	1845	786	958	570	1577	595	392	496	306	350	531	836	189	551	1752	461	666	446	1184	659	948	388	1061	495	1094	909	1620	763	410	1299	996	652	549	1465	650	597	1521	996	700	758	452	781	821	781	1684	909	3818	1431	1781	986	5871	6496	1480	480	407	4228	1877	306	5542	457	1182	195	1112	697	1264	1061	383	573	511	2206	936	1740	710	274	449	314	834	1058	1222	1992	1886	385	1664	1000	679	3522	1114	1090	1757	847	614	1832	925	1549	843	471	891	264	750	304	2793	333	488	2432	538	412	505	660	2432	2603	681	436	2038	442	5417	1621	846	1358	278	441	494	941	509	670	327	684	699	382	495	1322	1078	825	1809	469	703	1686	692	450	403	2298	1172	1895	597	2383	1152	616	1346	2430	429	381	755	583	300	955	444	669	410	1227	1954	561	577	2381	1888	1324	1648	1883	530	710	563	543	476	535	561	890	215	606	603	1088	2725	1556	535	630	2896	457	687	1995	489	532	586	762	474	1079
2020-09-19	233	439	553	397	719	897	1041	2146	2319	678	953	471	1550	1260	8735	772	2201	1214	432	4071	1053	476	7450	551	2128	348	1006	1704	1784	649	368	587	928	2018	1482	444	973	396	764	407	1452	1068	854	512	800	2648	2375	597	334	382	832	791	387	504	1079	246	4027	1973	329	2170	667	685	803	343	1549	2206	742	1670	2041	288	306	499	1850	791	960	574	1586	598	394	498	308	352	531	837	190	554	1770	463	667	449	1189	661	963	390	1070	498	1102	915	1628	764	412	1304	1000	657	551	1473	652	598	1531	997	713	759	453	786	824	786	1687	912	3873	1451	1790	989	5908	6546	1486	482	411	4349	1884	311	5609	460	1185	196	1115	700	1271	1065	384	575	513	2237	940	1751	716	276	451	318	835	1058	1235	2002	1894	387	1685	1002	684	3548	1118	1099	1764	852	617	1852	928	1554	847	473	894	265	755	304	2826	334	498	2445	544	414	508	662	2452	2612	686	437	2056	444	5462	1626	849	1369	279	442	496	945	511	672	328	685	706	383	499	1329	1080	828	1816	472	709	1713	696	452	405	2314	1177	1904	599	2398	1155	617	1349	2440	432	382	757	585	301	956	446	671	410	1236	1966	563	579	2392	1891	1330	1652	1909	532	713	565	545	478	538	562	892	216	608	606	1094	2747	1563	536	636	2930	460	689	2016	490	534	590	764	476	1081
2020-09-20	235	441	558	398	725	899	1048	2149	2325	681	957	474	1553	1264	8782	785	2207	1220	434	4143	1056	479	7481	554	2136	350	1009	1713	1790	652	369	591	946	2038	1494	445	974	396	766	409	1455	1076	856	513	802	2653	2383	600	336	384	836	793	388	508	1081	247	4046	1979	332	2177	670	687	805	344	1554	2207	745	1681	2050	289	307	501	1855	795	962	577	1595	600	396	500	309	353	532	837	191	557	1789	464	668	452	1194	663	977	392	1073	501	1109	920	1635	766	413	1310	1005	662	552	1480	654	598	1541	998	726	760	454	791	825	790	1690	916	3915	1467	1799	992	5946	6597	1492	485	415	4427	1890	315	5645	463	1187	198	1119	702	1279	1069	385	577	515	2261	944	1761	722	277	453	322	836	1058	1249	2011	1903	389	1706	1004	689	3574	1122	1107	1770	857	620	1872	931	1559	851	475	897	267	759	305	2860	335	505	2458	550	416	512	663	2473	2620	691	438	2073	446	5507	1630	853	1381	281	444	498	950	512	674	329	687	713	384	503	1336	1083	831	1824	476	716	1740	700	454	408	2330	1183	1912	601	2414	1158	619	1350	2450	434	383	760	588	302	957	448	673	411	1245	1978	565	581	2403	1895	1337	1656	1935	534	715	567	547	480	542	564	893	217	609	609	1100	2768	1569	537	642	2964	463	691	2038	491	537	594	766	477	1084
2020-09-21	236	442	563	400	731	901	1054	2153	2332	683	960	476	1555	1267	8831	799	2214	1226	436	4200	1058	481	7511	556	2145	351	1012	1721	1796	655	371	595	952	2059	1506	447	980	396	767	412	1459	1084	858	513	804	2664	2392	604	337	386	840	794	389	512	1082	248	4065	1985	335	2185	672	689	806	346	1560	2216	748	1693	2059	290	309	503	1860	800	964	580	1604	602	397	502	311	354	532	837	191	560	1808	465	670	455	1200	665	991	395	1076	504	1116	926	1643	768	414	1315	1009	666	554	1487	656	599	1551	999	739	761	455	796	828	794	1693	920	3939	1486	1809	994	5984	6648	1498	487	420	4460	1896	320	5699	465	1189	200	1122	704	1286	1073	387	580	518	2279	947	1772	728	279	456	326	837	1059	1263	2021	1911	391	1727	1007	694	3601	1126	1115	1777	862	623	1892	934	1564	855	476	900	268	764	306	2894	336	513	2471	556	417	515	664	2504	2628	696	439	2091	448	5552	1635	856	1392	282	446	500	954	513	676	331	688	720	385	507	1344	1086	834	1831	480	722	1768	704	455	410	2346	1188	1921	603	2430	1161	620	1352	2460	437	384	762	590	303	958	450	675	411	1254	1990	567	582	2414	1898	1343	1661	1962	537	718	569	549	482	546	565	895	218	611	611	1106	2790	1575	538	647	2998	466	693	2060	492	539	597	768	479	1086

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harrogate	Harrow	Hartlepool	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Mendip	Merton	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Sunderland	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-14	227	432	525	391	687	885	1007	2077	2285	664	936	460	1525	1241	8506	705	2164	1186	420	3513	1040	464	7302	539	2087	341	993	1661	1755	634	358	565	816	1917	1423	431	938	393	758	395	1432	1029	843	500	790	2595	2330	578	327	371	812	784	384	483	1071	242	3928	1944	314	2134	656	674	786	335	1523	2193	726	1613	1996	281	298	489	1824	769	950	558	1541	586	386	488	300	345	529	830	186	538	1676	456	660	434	1163	650	891	379	1031	483	1066	887	1589	756	405	1279	978	633	543	1437	641	594	1481	992	651	753	449	761	788	765	1672	894	3571	1336	1746	976	5725	6297	1457	471	388	3728	1853	286	5233	445	1173	188	1097	689	1235	1046	377	563	501	2085	922	1698	686	269	440	298	830	1039	1168	1957	1851	376	1575	990	659	3417	1099	1057	1731	826	603	1752	914	1531	828	464	880	258	732	301	2656	329	479	2379	513	403	492	654	2300	2571	660	431	1969	434	5238	1604	831	1313	272	433	485	922	504	662	321	678	672	377	478	1293	1067	813	1779	453	680	1576	675	442	393	2235	1150	1862	590	2319	1141	610	1330	2389	419	378	744	573	296	951	436	660	408	1191	1906	553	569	2336	1875	1298	1591	1781	520	700	554	535	468	520	555	885	212	599	592	1065	2639	1532	531	607	2765	444	678	1908	485	522	572	753	467	1070
2020-09-15	229	433	526	392	692	888	1014	2087	2291	668	939	462	1528	1242	8601	715	2187	1191	424	3581	1048	466	7349	540	2094	342	998	1668	1759	636	360	569	831	1935	1434	433	945	394	759	396	1436	1036	844	502	791	2602	2338	580	328	372	818	785	385	485	1077	243	3952	1957	317	2138	657	677	787	336	1527	2198	729	1623	2003	282	300	491	1830	772	952	560	1548	587	386	490	301	346	530	830	187	542	1695	458	661	435	1167	651	904	381	1038	485	1071	890	1594	760	406	1285	980	636	546	1444	643	597	1489	993	661	754	449	764	790	769	1673	897	3618	1357	1752	980	5774	6339	1462	473	390	3794	1859	289	5293	448	1174	190	1100	690	1242	1048	378	565	502	2112	924	1709	688	270	442	301	832	1042	1181	1963	1861	377	1586	992	664	3443	1102	1066	1734	830	606	1771	915	1541	830	465	883	259	736	302	2677	330	488	2393	520	406	495	655	2335	2593	664	432	1985	439	5267	1607	833	1332	273	434	487	926	508	664	322	679	677	378	483	1305	1069	815	1785	456	685	1598	678	444	396	2249	1154	1870	592	2342	1143	611	1332	2418	421	379	747	575	297	952	437	662	409	1198	1916	554	570	2347	1883	1303	1600	1803	523	702	555	535	470	522	556	890	214	600	594	1069	2663	1536	531	613	2803	446	679	1929	487	522	575	757	469	1076
2020-09-16	230	435	528	394	698	890	1022	2100	2300	671	943	465	1533	1246	8746	724	2210	1197	428	3673	1058	469	7412	543	2104	344	1004	1678	1766	641	363	574	846	1958	1449	435	951	397	761	398	1440	1044	846	504	792	2613	2350	583	330	374	825	786	386	490	1082	244	3982	1974	320	2147	659	679	788	338	1533	2203	733	1636	2013	283	302	494	1839	777	954	563	1560	590	388	493	303	347	531	831	187	546	1718	460	662	437	1172	653	915	384	1044	489	1080	896	1603	766	407	1295	983	641	550	1452	647	600	1499	996	676	755	450	770	798	773	1676	901	3657	1379	1763	984	5857	6386	1469	476	394	3873	1865	292	5353	452	1178	191	1105	692	1250	1053	379	568	505	2139	928	1723	691	272	445	306	836	1046	1196	1973	1871	379	1602	995	673	3475	1107	1075	1741	835	609	1794	918	1558	834	467	887	261	740	302	2705	331	495	2409	527	409	498	656	2373	2619	669	433	2005	446	5307	1612	838	1354	275	437	490	931	513	666	324	680	684	379	487	1323	1073	819	1793	461	692	1623	683	446	399	2268	1160	1880	594	2371	1146	612	1335	2449	424	381	750	577	298	953	439	664	411	1208	1927	556	572	2360	1895	1311	1611	1834	526	704	557	536	472	527	557	894	217	602	598	1076	2684	1543	533	620	2850	447	681	1947	489	524	578	763	471	1084
2020-09-17	232	436	530	396	702	892	1032	2114	2309	674	946	468	1539	1249	8892	733	2230	1203	431	3772	1067	472	7476	545	2114	345	1011	1687	1773	644	365	580	861	1982	1465	438	957	399	762	401	1443	1052	847	506	793	2625	2362	586	331	376	830	788	386	494	1088	245	4011	1991	323	2155	661	682	790	339	1539	2211	738	1649	2021	284	304	496	1846	782	956	566	1573	592	389	495	304	349	532	833	188	549	1741	462	664	439	1178	655	926	386	1052	493	1090	902	1610	773	408	1307	986	647	555	1460	650	603	1510	998	691	756	451	776	805	777	1678	905	3711	1401	1775	987	5943	6426	1476	478	398	3949	1872	295	5415	456	1180	193	1109	694	1257	1057	380	571	508	2171	932	1738	694	273	447	310	840	1050	1210	1983	1880	381	1617	997	681	3507	1111	1083	1748	841	612	1818	921	1574	838	468	891	262	745	303	2735	332	507	2424	534	411	502	659	2407	2643	675	434	2025	453	5347	1617	842	1377	277	439	493	936	517	668	325	682	692	380	491	1340	1075	822	1800	467	700	1652	687	448	403	2286	1166	1887	596	2400	1150	614	1337	2481	426	382	753	580	299	953	441	667	413	1216	1939	558	574	2371	1908	1321	1624	1866	529	707	560	539	474	531	559	900	219	604	603	1083	2703	1550	533	629	2893	450	684	1967	492	526	581	768	473	1092
2020-09-18	233	438	532	398	705	894	1040	2124	2318	678	950	469	1544	1252	9041	741	2251	1209	434	3864	1076	475	7540	548	2123	347	1018	1697	1779	645	367	586	875	2005	1480	440	965	401	763	403	1447	1059	849	508	794	2637	2374	588	333	378	834	789	387	498	1093	246	4036	2008	326	2164	663	685	793	341	1545	2216	743	1662	2030	286	306	499	1853	787	958	570	1585	595	391	498	306	350	533	833	189	553	1764	464	665	441	1183	657	937	389	1058	496	1100	907	1615	780	409	1319	989	653	559	1469	654	604	1520	1001	706	757	452	782	812	782	1680	909	3758	1422	1784	989	6032	6468	1483	481	401	4027	1878	297	5479	460	1184	195	1113	697	1264	1061	382	575	510	2201	936	1751	698	274	450	315	844	1055	1224	1994	1889	383	1632	1000	690	3539	1116	1091	1752	846	615	1841	924	1591	842	470	895	264	749	304	2772	333	512	2436	541	414	506	660	2442	2663	679	434	2045	460	5388	1622	846	1400	279	440	495	940	520	671	327	683	701	382	495	1358	1078	826	1807	472	708	1674	692	450	406	2305	1172	1894	598	2429	1153	615	1339	2514	428	384	757	583	300	954	444	669	414	1222	1949	560	575	2382	1920	1330	1636	1898	531	710	562	540	477	536	560	903	222	605	607	1090	2722	1557	534	637	2932	451	686	1985	495	528	584	774	475	1099
2020-09-19	234	439	534	401	709	896	1047	2132	2326	681	954	472	1547	1255	9193	749	2267	1215	437	3953	1086	478	7604	550	2132	348	1025	1707	1786	647	368	591	891	2029	1496	442	970	404	765	405	1451	1067	850	510	795	2650	2385	591	334	380	837	791	387	502	1098	247	4061	2025	329	2172	665	688	795	343	1551	2223	747	1675	2040	287	307	501	1859	792	960	573	1597	597	392	501	308	352	534	834	190	555	1788	466	667	443	1189	658	948	391	1066	500	1108	912	1622	787	410	1329	993	659	563	1476	656	606	1530	1003	722	758	453	788	816	786	1682	914	3789	1443	1793	990	6112	6503	1490	483	405	4108	1884	300	5541	464	1186	196	1117	699	1274	1066	383	578	511	2233	940	1766	700	276	453	319	848	1060	1239	2004	1899	385	1646	1003	699	3572	1120	1099	1757	852	618	1865	927	1608	846	472	898	265	753	305	2784	334	524	2450	549	416	509	661	2472	2683	684	435	2066	468	5428	1628	850	1422	280	442	498	945	523	673	328	685	707	383	499	1376	1081	829	1812	477	716	1697	696	452	409	2322	1178	1901	600	2458	1156	617	1344	2547	431	385	760	586	301	955	446	671	415	1230	1960	562	577	2392	1932	1338	1643	1931	534	712	564	542	479	540	561	908	225	607	610	1096	2740	1564	535	643	2970	453	689	2002	498	530	587	780	477	1107
2020-09-20	235	441	536	403	714	898	1054	2139	2336	683	957	474	1550	1258	9348	757	2286	1221	439	4040	1095	482	7669	552	2142	350	1030	1716	1792	651	370	597	907	2054	1512	444	973	406	766	407	1455	1074	851	512	796	2663	2397	594	336	382	841	793	388	507	1103	247	4086	2043	332	2181	666	691	797	344	1556	2229	752	1688	2047	288	309	502	1866	798	962	576	1609	599	394	503	309	353	535	835	191	559	1812	468	669	445	1194	660	958	394	1072	503	1118	919	1629	794	411	1342	995	665	568	1484	659	607	1541	1005	738	758	454	795	820	791	1684	918	3818	1465	1799	992	6195	6537	1496	486	409	4179	1889	302	5588	468	1188	198	1122	701	1281	1070	385	582	513	2263	944	1777	703	277	455	324	852	1065	1252	2015	1908	387	1661	1005	708	3604	1125	1107	1762	857	621	1889	930	1625	851	473	900	267	758	306	2801	335	533	2465	556	419	513	662	2503	2702	690	436	2086	475	5470	1633	854	1444	282	445	500	950	527	675	330	687	716	384	502	1395	1084	833	1817	482	724	1722	700	455	411	2339	1184	1908	602	2488	1159	619	1347	2577	433	387	762	589	302	955	448	674	416	1238	1968	565	578	2398	1944	1343	1652	1964	536	715	566	544	481	545	562	913	227	608	613	1102	2759	1571	535	650	3007	454	691	2019	501	532	591	785	479	1114
2020-09-21	236	442	538	404	720	901	1064	2151	2345	687	961	477	1556	1261	9505	766	2311	1227	443	4156	1104	485	7735	556	2152	352	1037	1726	1799	654	372	603	921	2078	1528	446	980	408	767	409	1458	1082	853	513	797	2678	2410	597	337	384	846	794	389	511	1108	248	4117	2060	335	2189	668	694	799	345	1561	2237	756	1701	2061	289	311	503	1872	802	965	580	1621	602	395	507	311	355	536	836	191	562	1837	470	670	446	1199	661	969	396	1080	507	1127	930	1636	801	411	1353	1000	671	572	1492	662	609	1551	1008	754	759	455	801	828	795	1685	922	3847	1489	1812	994	6297	6584	1503	489	413	4245	1895	307	5654	472	1190	200	1126	703	1289	1074	386	585	517	2290	948	1793	707	279	458	329	855	1069	1268	2026	1917	390	1680	1007	717	3637	1130	1115	1771	863	625	1913	934	1642	855	475	902	268	763	306	2824	336	543	2481	564	421	516	664	2541	2727	699	437	2107	483	5511	1638	858	1466	283	447	504	955	530	677	331	688	725	385	507	1414	1087	836	1825	487	732	1750	705	457	414	2362	1190	1916	604	2519	1162	620	1349	2611	436	389	766	592	303	956	450	677	417	1252	1979	567	579	2412	1957	1350	1665	1998	538	717	568	546	484	550	564	919	230	610	617	1108	2776	1578	536	657	3054	456	694	2041	504	534	594	791	481	1122

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-14