COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-14

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date	04-15	04-21	08-30	04-29	04-09	04-14	04-17	04-10	03-28	03-25	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-18	03-30	09-03	--	08-31	04-12	04-18	--	04-02	04-19	04-04	08-30	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	09-02	04-16	04-26	03-27	05-11	03-18	04-15	--	--	--	04-08	03-28	08-31	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	05-09	04-16	04-03	03-30	05-05	04-22	05-05	05-03	05-08	04-07	04-17	04-11	05-03	04-19	04-02	04-20	09-03	04-11	04-20	03-27	04-03	04-22	03-31	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	04-10	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	03-30	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	06-02	03-30	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	09-02	03-29	04-15	04-20	03-26	03-25	04-20	03-25	04-23	04-15	04-25	04-18	03-26	07-01	08-22	09-02	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	09-02	04-17	04-21	03-15	03-21	05-03	04-10	04-22	04-07	--	--	03-25	03-26	09-03	06-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	08-25	--	04-03	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-29	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	03-27	04-21	05-05	03-30	03-25	03-28	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	03-26	04-26	09-02	04-18	05-04	04-22	03-29	04-08	04-10	08-02	04-10	04-20	04-15	04-22	09-01	09-03	03-31	07-27	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	03-30	04-22	04-10	04-05	05-24	03-19	04-21	--	04-20	--	05-14	04-17	--	04-13	04-14	04-05	05-07	04-20	09-01	09-01	04-18	04-22	03-29	04-21	03-26	03-23	04-20	04-23	09-03	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	08-29	04-26	03-21	09-02	04-18	03-27	03-27	04-14	03-29	--	04-15	04-14	03-30	04-01	04-20	04-24	04-10	03-30	03-31	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	09-03	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-22	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	03-25	03-27	05-13	04-27	03-25	04-22	03-25	03-23	03-24	09-03	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	04-20	--	04-19	04-14	03-17	04-15	05-03	04-15	09-02	09-03	04-14	04-14	04-17	04-15	04-16	08-30	03-29	04-20	04-13	04-21
Peak daily increment	5	8	14	18	12	22	13	6	19	47	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	30	167		30	21	6		8	20	8	77	11	9	51	7	16	25	12	38	21	6	9				6	19	11	15	25	6	19	14	16	12	12	40	31	9	14	7	12	23	8	7	17	4	68	24	5	11	49	9	15	19	5	19	9	35	15	11	25	34	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	16	10	6	8	25	14	8	8	6	6	11	13	4	12	36	7	14	7	10	14	25	13	16	6	32	6	21	10	12	29	6	14	2	9	28	43	13	7	24	9	11	23	29	17	20	16	16	16	18	23	43	16			39	32	95	75	6	37	8	10		23	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13	20	18	12	8	6	33	17	43	4	12	5	10	6	18	15	19	20	10	5	68	37	7	25	13	10	39	21	14	33	18	12		22	29	14	9	17	4	15	11		7		4	30		6	7	14	2	3	37	33	21	7	35	8	8	69	21	18	27	15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18	10	8	8	23	17	15	44	8	12		18	7	7	31	17	27	14	9	48	9	28	13	16	39	7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	25	22	10	15	9	28	31	28	32	35	9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	14		11	14	19	53	37	10	13	48	8	15	28	12	10	12	6	16	10	30
Days from 100 to peak	-2	21	146	19	7	16	20	-4	10	14	34	8	25	9	40	2	25	13	177		155	13	8		-4	25	4	162	30	16	15	-6	163	27	18	14	45	-12	14				3	13	152	10	28	-7	26	37	23	7	3	44	31	33	23	37	8	17	12	12	28	-7	30	169	0	20	15	9	21	7	-21	6	6	25	25	39	24	15	1	16	16	17	3	11	26	18	21	10	15	-3	1	16	3	-3	12	-6	18	19	35	-21	56	6	17	20	4	1	40	14	9	159	-6	31	7	11	-2	18	13	17	9	-15	19	8	90	154	149	11	10	20	9	31	143	16	6	0	7	32	11	21	18			15	8	169	85	9	12	-2	131		13	30	-30	-8		44	8	-47	-11	11	-29	11	26	3	32	38	0	-12	10	27	10	-8	19	-15	22	151	16	17	20	6	4	5	132	17	11	25	29	140	167	7	111	29	16	21		13	14	26	8	15	32	1	3		10		21	28		10	10	7	-77	-10	166	169	14	13	8	5	-4	12	28	35	167	48	-12	14	1	24	-131	14	22	7	14	-14	43	148	13	-4	159	27	3	18	13	5		11	5	-5	12	25	29	14	-3	9	6	19	153	119	165	-10	6	3	44	15	24	-3	15	18	1	9	13		9	7	36	19	-3	31	9	7	14	163	-4	9	14	16	106	36	12		24		20	5	7	23	42	23	161	166	10	19	34	13	9	154	1	19	14	21
Days from peak/2 to peak	31	43	175	43	30	30	38	30	22	21	43	17	36	24	56	25	36	24	178		165	27	41		17	40	27	166	52	37	21	17	184	39	43	21	62	13	40				33	26	174	24	41	24	40	57	43	24	21	55	42	58	54	67	29	33	30	49	45	35	35	179	33	41	21	33	36	20	20	16	40	33	42	61	34	24	39	61	39	45	29	41	38	39	36	38	39	44	19	26	17	15	42	24	43	46	61	14	82	13	43	37	39	17	57	23	31	173	24	42	47	22	12	39	21	44	27	44	42	18	106	169	185	22	34	43	21	49	166	33	36	11	25	51	26	30	32			22	14	173	91	33	20	19	163		24	43	11	18		72	21	16	54	22	10	40	43	11	44	60	18	27	19	44	17	28	43	13	45	177	32	50	37	19	31	35	138	26	40	40	50	174	176	26	133	44	34	39		28	22	38	29	29	69	13	34		36		63	36		38	37	25	53	42	174	177	32	47	16	37	14	16	42	50	174	71	21	42	27	42	27	40	53	20	38	18	59	170	44	16	170	41	16	25	35	27		26	36	24	24	41	40	32	18	16	24	29	172	136	177	10	28	47	61	31	48	26	30	41	17	35	49	26	21	21	62	45	17	40	18	16	22	170	13	20	37	41	141	62	30	52	35		44	32	18	29	55	44	182	172	39	41	44	34	32	171	28	35	36	36
Last total	227	432	525	391	687	1381	885	296	1007	2077	2285	664	936	995	687	460	1525	1241	8506	705	2164	1186	420	3513	517	1040	464	7302	549	539	2087	341	993	1661	456	1755	634	358	565	816	1917	1423	431	938	393	758	824	395	1432	1029	843	500	790	2595	2330	578	327	371	812	784	384	483	1071	242	3928	1944	314	508	2134	656	674	786	335	1523	289	2193	726	747	1613	1996	217	281	560	492	298	489	1824	769	950	505	477	233	558	1541	586	386	488	300	345	529	830	186	538	1676	456	600	252	660	434	1163	650	891	379	1031	483	1066	420	887	1589	303	756	187	405	1279	978	633	543	1437	641	594	1481	992	651	753	449	761	788	765	888	1672	894	3571	1336	1746	976	5725	6297	415	1457	471	388	3728	1853	715	156	286	5233	445	1173	246	188	1097	238	367	689	1235	1046	377	563	501	2085	922	1698	147	686	269	440	298	830	234	1039	1168	381	376	1957	1851	376	1575	990	659	3417	1099	1057	1731	826	603	1752	914	1531	828	464	880	258	732	301	2656	329	479	221	2379	513	403	492	654	123	157	2300	2571	660	431	1969	434	437	5238	1604	831	1313	489	272	433	485	922	125	737	504	662	377	321	678	672	377	478	1293	1067	813	1779	453	680	1576	675	442	393	2235	1150	1862	590	312	2319	491	1141	610	1330	2389	419	378	244	744	683	573	296	951	436	660	408	319	68	1191	1906	553	343	569	2336	1875	1298	1591	1781	520	700	554	535	468	520	555	79	885	212	599	592	1065	2639	1532	531	607	2765	444	678	1908	463	485	522	572	753	467	1070
Last daily increment	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	1	0	3	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	45	14	16	3	1	43	0	1	0	28	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	1	1	14	2	1	2	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11	5	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	20	14	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	2	9	1	0	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1	1	2	3	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	4	0	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20	16	0	1	34	23	0	0	2	2	20	1	1	0	0	59	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	18	1	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	14	0	8	1	3	24	0	11	0	0	1	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0	7	0	3	4	2	1	1	0	0	29	3	0	0	13	3	0	16	0	0	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	5	0	0	3	0	0	15	3	3	1	13	0	4	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	22	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	1	1	0	7	7	1	0	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	30	0	0	5	17	0	0	13	0	0	1	3	2	0	4
Last week	8	6	11	8	24	2	17	2	51	53	50	27	19	5	5	7	23	17	664	55	116	41	17	416	3	38	19	368	4	8	53	7	49	34	5	29	15	15	21	72	128	79	7	35	11	7	2	19	33	53	10	12	15	66	67	9	9	9	41	8	7	14	42	6	147	90	18	5	29	11	19	13	9	33	2	48	17	3	64	55	0	6	5	5	12	11	52	25	8	3	3	5	11	63	12	6	9	9	6	6	6	6	19	143	12	5	3	7	8	33	11	85	23	31	21	48	4	17	36	5	31	5	12	54	18	24	30	39	20	16	75	15	72	9	6	25	29	23	2	10	23	244	123	43	21	437	227	3	30	12	16	423	37	5	0	9	353	16	14	5	9	26	3	5	8	31	14	6	10	15	159	16	57	4	15	8	13	16	21	0	12	73	5	2	48	76	8	69	20	49	207	25	62	27	36	13	124	7	86	15	7	20	12	22	6	159	9	62	0	76	52	21	27	11	2	3	184	130	21	6	114	32	4	176	22	22	106	5	9	7	9	30	0	1	21	7	2	7	7	42	6	18	114	16	21	41	23	45	147	23	12	23	91	35	50	6	4	149	4	17	9	14	155	16	6	5	13	4	9	8	8	9	11	10	0	5	42	78	8	5	10	80	72	54	47	148	18	13	8	6	9	17	6	1	28	12	8	21	27	137	30	7	56	212	9	10	97	5	10	9	15	43	11	45
Days since peak	152	146	15	138	158	153	150	157	170	173	144	170	149	171	123	165	149	168	11		14	155	149		165	148	163	15	134	147	172	172	12	151	141	171	126	180	152				159	170	14	159	146	169	150	128	151	164	168	132	145	132	134	129	160	150	156	134	148	165	147	11	156	147	171	164	145	167	173	175	149	151	148	124	157	171	144	142	150	152	155	146	146	151	151	145	151	144	174	168	173	173	150	168	149	139	126	171	104	168	151	148	152	168	126	170	162	12	169	152	147	172	173	147	173	144	152	142	149	172	75	23	12	172	154	148	174	134	12	150	146	183	177	134	157	145	160			173	172	11	92	154	173	173	20		164	140	176	168		113	169	175	133	173	171	144	145	171	146	132	168	173	170	138	173	147	149	172	141	12	149	133	145	169	159	157	43	157	147	152	145	13	11	167	49	138	153	153		160	168	145	157	162	113	179	146		147		123	150		154	153	162	130	147	13	13	149	145	169	146	172	175	147	144	11	111	175	152	166	150	173	139	138	174	145	171	128	16	141	177	12	149	171	171	153	169		152	153	168	166	147	143	157	168	167	161	162	16	50	11	177	160	152	125	153	145	165	154	150	173	156	150	161	173	171	124	140	173	145	173	175	174	11	174	164	154	149	43	127	160	149	147		148	153	181	152	134	152	12	11	153	153	150	152	151	15	169	147	154	146

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harrogate	Harrow	Hartlepool	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Mendip	Merton	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Sunderland	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-14	227	432	525	391	687	885	1007	2077	2285	664	936	460	1525	1241	8506	705	2164	1186	420	3513	1040	464	7302	539	2087	341	993	1661	1755	634	358	565	816	1917	1423	431	938	393	758	395	1432	1029	843	500	790	2595	2330	578	327	371	812	784	384	483	1071	242	3928	1944	314	2134	656	674	786	335	1523	2193	726	1613	1996	281	298	489	1824	769	950	558	1541	586	386	488	300	345	529	830	186	538	1676	456	660	434	1163	650	891	379	1031	483	1066	887	1589	756	405	1279	978	633	543	1437	641	594	1481	992	651	753	449	761	788	765	1672	894	3571	1336	1746	976	5725	6297	1457	471	388	3728	1853	286	5233	445	1173	188	1097	689	1235	1046	377	563	501	2085	922	1698	686	269	440	298	830	1039	1168	1957	1851	376	1575	990	659	3417	1099	1057	1731	826	603	1752	914	1531	828	464	880	258	732	301	2656	329	479	2379	513	403	492	654	2300	2571	660	431	1969	434	5238	1604	831	1313	272	433	485	922	504	662	321	678	672	377	478	1293	1067	813	1779	453	680	1576	675	442	393	2235	1150	1862	590	2319	1141	610	1330	2389	419	378	744	573	296	951	436	660	408	1191	1906	553	569	2336	1875	1298	1591	1781	520	700	554	535	468	520	555	885	212	599	592	1065	2639	1532	531	607	2765	444	678	1908	485	522	572	753	467	1070
2020-09-15	228	433	531	392	694	887	1014	2099	2292	667	940	462	1532	1245	8551	721	2172	1192	423	3659	1040	467	7330	541	2095	342	993	1669	1761	637	360	570	854	1937	1435	439	947	393	759	397	1436	1037	845	502	792	2599	2339	582	328	373	816	785	385	487	1071	243	3949	1949	317	2141	658	676	789	337	1528	2193	729	1625	2005	282	300	491	1829	773	952	561	1550	588	388	490	301	346	529	831	187	541	1695	457	661	437	1168	652	906	381	1045	486	1073	893	1597	757	406	1284	983	638	543	1444	643	594	1491	992	663	754	450	766	798	769	1675	898	3663	1369	1754	979	5761	6347	1463	473	393	3889	1859	291	5326	448	1175	190	1101	691	1242	1050	379	565	503	2121	925	1709	693	270	442	302	830	1049	1182	1965	1860	378	1599	992	664	3444	1103	1065	1738	831	606	1772	917	1531	832	466	883	259	736	302	2703	330	479	2393	519	405	495	656	2337	2579	665	432	1986	434	5283	1608	835	1324	273	435	487	927	504	664	322	679	679	378	482	1300	1070	816	1786	457	685	1604	680	444	395	2251	1156	1870	592	2335	1144	611	1339	2394	422	379	747	575	297	952	438	662	408	1200	1918	555	571	2347	1877	1304	1612	1806	522	702	556	537	470	524	557	885	213	601	595	1071	2660	1538	532	613	2797	448	680	1930	485	524	576	753	469	1070
2020-09-16	230	435	536	393	700	890	1020	2114	2299	670	943	464	1538	1249	8598	737	2180	1197	425	3761	1040	469	7360	544	2104	344	994	1678	1767	640	362	574	872	1958	1447	439	952	393	761	400	1440	1045	847	504	794	2610	2348	586	330	375	820	787	385	491	1071	244	3969	1954	320	2148	660	679	793	338	1534	2193	733	1636	2014	284	301	493	1834	778	954	564	1559	591	389	492	303	348	529	833	188	544	1714	459	663	440	1173	654	920	384	1050	489	1080	898	1605	758	408	1289	987	643	544	1452	645	594	1502	992	675	755	451	771	808	773	1678	902	3729	1392	1763	981	5798	6395	1468	476	398	4024	1865	296	5396	451	1178	191	1104	693	1250	1054	380	568	506	2144	929	1719	699	272	445	306	831	1052	1195	1974	1869	380	1621	995	669	3471	1107	1074	1744	836	609	1792	919	1531	835	468	886	261	741	302	2752	331	480	2406	525	407	499	657	2375	2588	670	433	2004	434	5328	1612	838	1336	275	437	490	931	504	666	324	681	686	379	486	1308	1072	819	1794	461	691	1632	684	446	398	2267	1161	1879	594	2351	1147	613	1343	2399	424	380	749	578	298	953	440	665	409	1209	1930	557	573	2359	1878	1311	1621	1832	525	705	558	539	472	527	558	885	215	603	598	1076	2682	1544	533	619	2831	451	683	1952	486	527	579	753	471	1070
2020-09-17	231	436	542	395	706	892	1027	2130	2305	672	946	467	1544	1252	8641	752	2187	1203	427	3875	1040	472	7389	546	2112	345	995	1686	1773	643	364	579	895	1977	1458	442	959	393	762	402	1444	1053	849	507	796	2620	2357	589	331	377	825	788	386	495	1072	245	3988	1960	323	2155	663	681	796	340	1539	2193	736	1647	2023	285	303	495	1839	782	956	567	1568	593	391	494	305	349	529	834	188	548	1733	460	664	443	1179	657	934	386	1057	492	1087	904	1612	759	409	1294	991	647	544	1458	648	594	1511	992	688	757	452	776	815	777	1681	905	3817	1413	1772	984	5834	6445	1474	478	402	4150	1871	301	5465	454	1180	193	1108	695	1257	1057	381	570	508	2177	933	1730	705	273	447	310	831	1053	1209	1983	1878	382	1643	997	674	3497	1110	1082	1751	842	612	1812	922	1532	839	469	888	262	745	303	2800	332	487	2419	532	410	502	659	2402	2595	675	435	2021	434	5372	1617	842	1347	276	439	492	936	504	668	325	682	692	380	491	1315	1075	822	1801	465	697	1659	688	448	400	2282	1166	1887	595	2367	1149	614	1346	2404	427	381	752	580	299	954	442	667	409	1218	1942	559	575	2370	1880	1317	1636	1857	527	708	560	541	474	531	559	885	216	604	600	1082	2704	1550	534	624	2863	454	685	1973	486	529	583	753	472	1070
2020-09-18	232	438	547	396	713	894	1034	2140	2312	675	950	469	1549	1256	8688	768	2194	1209	429	3975	1040	474	7420	549	2120	347	996	1695	1778	646	366	583	912	1998	1470	443	968	393	763	405	1448	1061	852	510	798	2631	2366	593	333	379	829	790	387	500	1072	245	4008	1965	326	2163	665	683	800	341	1544	2193	739	1659	2032	286	304	497	1845	786	958	570	1577	595	392	496	306	350	529	836	189	551	1752	461	666	446	1184	659	948	388	1061	495	1094	909	1620	760	410	1299	996	652	545	1465	650	594	1521	992	700	758	452	781	821	781	1684	909	3892	1431	1781	986	5871	6496	1480	480	407	4279	1877	306	5542	457	1182	195	1112	697	1264	1061	383	573	511	2206	936	1740	710	274	449	314	831	1058	1222	1992	1886	385	1664	1000	679	3522	1114	1090	1757	847	614	1832	925	1533	843	471	891	264	750	304	2850	333	489	2432	538	412	505	660	2432	2603	681	436	2038	434	5417	1621	846	1358	278	441	494	941	504	670	327	684	699	382	495	1322	1078	825	1809	469	703	1686	692	450	403	2298	1172	1895	597	2383	1152	616	1346	2409	429	381	755	583	300	955	444	669	409	1227	1954	561	577	2381	1881	1324	1648	1883	530	710	563	543	476	535	561	885	218	606	603	1088	2725	1556	535	630	2896	457	687	1995	487	532	586	753	474	1070
2020-09-19	233	439	553	397	719	897	1041	2146	2319	678	953	471	1550	1260	8735	785	2201	1214	432	4071	1041	476	7450	551	2128	348	997	1704	1784	649	368	587	937	2018	1482	444	973	393	764	407	1452	1068	854	512	800	2648	2375	597	334	382	832	791	387	504	1072	246	4027	1970	329	2170	667	685	803	343	1549	2193	742	1670	2041	288	306	499	1850	791	960	574	1586	598	394	498	308	352	529	837	190	554	1770	463	667	449	1189	661	963	390	1070	498	1102	915	1628	761	412	1304	1000	657	545	1473	652	594	1531	992	713	759	453	786	824	786	1687	912	3970	1451	1790	989	5908	6546	1486	482	411	4418	1884	311	5609	460	1185	196	1115	700	1271	1065	384	575	513	2237	940	1751	716	276	451	318	831	1058	1235	2002	1894	387	1685	1002	684	3548	1118	1099	1764	852	617	1852	928	1533	847	473	894	265	755	304	2902	334	500	2445	544	414	508	662	2452	2612	686	437	2056	434	5462	1626	849	1369	279	442	496	945	504	672	328	685	706	383	499	1329	1080	828	1816	472	709	1713	696	452	405	2314	1177	1904	599	2398	1155	617	1349	2414	432	382	757	585	301	956	446	671	410	1236	1966	563	579	2392	1883	1330	1652	1909	532	713	565	545	478	538	562	885	219	608	606	1094	2747	1563	536	636	2930	460	689	2016	488	534	590	753	476	1070
2020-09-20	235	441	558	398	725	899	1048	2149	2325	681	957	474	1553	1264	8782	802	2207	1220	434	4143	1041	479	7481	554	2136	350	998	1713	1790	652	369	591	957	2038	1494	445	974	393	766	409	1455	1076	856	513	802	2653	2383	600	336	384	836	793	388	508	1073	247	4046	1975	332	2177	670	687	805	344	1554	2193	745	1681	2050	289	307	501	1855	795	962	577	1595	600	396	500	309	353	529	837	191	557	1789	464	668	452	1194	663	977	392	1073	501	1109	920	1635	763	413	1310	1005	662	546	1480	654	594	1541	992	726	760	454	791	825	790	1690	916	4035	1467	1799	992	5946	6597	1492	485	415	4513	1890	315	5645	463	1187	198	1119	702	1279	1069	385	577	515	2261	944	1761	722	277	453	322	831	1058	1249	2011	1903	389	1706	1004	689	3574	1122	1107	1770	857	620	1872	931	1534	851	475	897	267	759	305	2954	335	508	2458	550	416	512	663	2473	2620	691	438	2073	434	5507	1630	853	1381	281	444	498	950	504	674	329	687	713	384	503	1336	1083	831	1824	476	716	1740	700	454	408	2330	1183	1912	601	2414	1158	619	1350	2419	434	383	760	588	302	957	448	673	410	1245	1978	565	581	2403	1884	1337	1656	1935	534	715	567	547	480	542	564	885	220	609	609	1100	2768	1569	537	642	2964	463	691	2038	488	537	594	753	477	1070
2020-09-21	236	442	563	400	731	901	1054	2153	2332	683	960	476	1555	1267	8831	819	2214	1226	436	4200	1041	481	7511	556	2145	351	1000	1721	1796	655	371	595	966	2059	1506	447	980	393	767	412	1459	1084	858	513	804	2664	2392	604	337	386	840	794	389	512	1073	248	4065	1980	335	2185	672	689	806	346	1560	2193	748	1693	2059	290	309	503	1860	800	964	580	1604	602	397	502	311	354	529	837	191	560	1808	465	670	455	1200	665	991	395	1076	504	1116	926	1643	764	414	1315	1009	666	546	1487	656	594	1551	992	739	761	455	796	828	794	1693	920	4083	1486	1809	994	5984	6648	1498	487	420	4565	1896	320	5699	465	1189	200	1122	704	1286	1073	387	580	518	2279	947	1772	728	279	456	326	831	1059	1263	2021	1911	391	1727	1007	694	3601	1126	1115	1777	862	623	1892	934	1535	855	476	900	268	764	306	3007	336	518	2471	556	417	515	664	2504	2628	696	439	2091	434	5552	1635	856	1392	282	446	500	954	504	676	331	688	720	385	507	1344	1086	834	1831	480	722	1768	704	455	410	2346	1188	1921	603	2430	1161	620	1352	2424	437	384	762	590	303	958	450	675	410	1254	1990	567	582	2414	1886	1343	1661	1962	537	718	569	549	482	546	565	885	222	611	611	1106	2790	1575	538	647	2998	466	693	2060	489	539	597	753	479	1070

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harrogate	Harrow	Hartlepool	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Mendip	Merton	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Sunderland	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-14	227	432	525	391	687	885	1007	2077	2285	664	936	460	1525	1241	8506	705	2164	1186	420	3513	1040	464	7302	539	2087	341	993	1661	1755	634	358	565	816	1917	1423	431	938	393	758	395	1432	1029	843	500	790	2595	2330	578	327	371	812	784	384	483	1071	242	3928	1944	314	2134	656	674	786	335	1523	2193	726	1613	1996	281	298	489	1824	769	950	558	1541	586	386	488	300	345	529	830	186	538	1676	456	660	434	1163	650	891	379	1031	483	1066	887	1589	756	405	1279	978	633	543	1437	641	594	1481	992	651	753	449	761	788	765	1672	894	3571	1336	1746	976	5725	6297	1457	471	388	3728	1853	286	5233	445	1173	188	1097	689	1235	1046	377	563	501	2085	922	1698	686	269	440	298	830	1039	1168	1957	1851	376	1575	990	659	3417	1099	1057	1731	826	603	1752	914	1531	828	464	880	258	732	301	2656	329	479	2379	513	403	492	654	2300	2571	660	431	1969	434	5238	1604	831	1313	272	433	485	922	504	662	321	678	672	377	478	1293	1067	813	1779	453	680	1576	675	442	393	2235	1150	1862	590	2319	1141	610	1330	2389	419	378	744	573	296	951	436	660	408	1191	1906	553	569	2336	1875	1298	1591	1781	520	700	554	535	468	520	555	885	212	599	592	1065	2639	1532	531	607	2765	444	678	1908	485	522	572	753	467	1070
2020-09-15	228	433	526	392	692	886	1013	2087	2291	667	939	462	1528	1242	8601	714	2187	1190	424	3581	1047	465	7346	540	2094	342	997	1668	1759	636	359	568	830	1935	1434	433	945	394	759	396	1435	1036	844	502	791	2601	2338	580	328	372	816	785	384	485	1073	243	3951	1957	317	2138	657	676	787	336	1527	2198	729	1623	2002	282	299	491	1830	772	952	560	1548	587	386	490	301	346	530	830	186	542	1695	457	661	435	1167	651	900	381	1038	485	1071	890	1594	760	405	1285	980	636	546	1444	643	596	1489	993	661	754	449	764	790	769	1674	897	3623	1357	1752	979	5774	6336	1462	473	390	3800	1859	288	5289	448	1174	189	1100	690	1242	1048	378	565	502	2112	924	1708	688	270	442	301	832	1041	1181	1963	1859	377	1585	992	664	3441	1102	1059	1734	830	605	1771	915	1541	830	465	882	259	736	302	2683	330	485	2393	518	405	495	655	2335	2593	663	432	1985	438	5267	1607	833	1332	273	434	487	926	508	664	322	679	677	378	483	1305	1069	815	1785	456	685	1598	678	444	395	2249	1153	1870	592	2341	1143	611	1332	2417	421	379	747	575	297	952	437	662	409	1198	1916	554	570	2347	1883	1303	1600	1803	522	702	555	536	470	522	556	889	214	600	594	1069	2658	1536	531	612	2803	446	679	1929	486	522	575	756	469	1076
2020-09-16	229	435	528	394	698	887	1021	2100	2299	670	943	465	1533	1246	8746	724	2209	1195	428	3673	1057	468	7406	543	2104	344	1002	1678	1766	641	362	574	847	1958	1449	435	951	396	761	398	1439	1044	846	504	792	2612	2349	582	330	374	822	786	385	490	1077	243	3981	1974	320	2147	659	679	788	338	1533	2203	733	1636	2012	283	301	494	1839	777	954	563	1559	590	388	492	303	347	531	831	187	546	1718	460	662	437	1172	653	911	383	1044	489	1079	896	1603	766	406	1295	982	641	550	1452	646	598	1499	996	676	755	450	770	798	773	1676	901	3680	1379	1763	983	5857	6382	1469	476	394	3893	1865	291	5349	451	1178	191	1105	692	1250	1053	379	568	505	2139	928	1722	691	272	445	306	836	1046	1196	1973	1868	379	1600	995	672	3471	1107	1066	1741	835	609	1794	918	1557	834	467	886	261	740	302	2724	331	493	2409	525	407	498	656	2373	2619	668	433	2005	445	5307	1612	838	1354	275	437	490	931	512	666	324	680	684	379	487	1323	1073	819	1793	461	692	1623	683	446	398	2268	1159	1880	594	2370	1146	612	1335	2448	423	380	750	577	298	952	439	664	411	1208	1927	556	572	2360	1895	1311	1611	1834	525	704	557	537	472	527	557	894	217	602	597	1076	2679	1543	533	619	2850	447	681	1947	489	524	578	761	471	1083
2020-09-17	231	436	529	395	702	889	1031	2114	2307	674	946	468	1539	1249	8892	736	2230	1201	431	3772	1066	471	7467	545	2114	345	1009	1687	1773	643	364	579	864	1982	1464	438	958	399	762	401	1443	1052	847	506	793	2624	2361	585	331	376	827	788	385	494	1082	244	4010	1991	323	2155	661	682	790	339	1539	2210	738	1649	2019	284	303	496	1846	782	956	566	1570	592	389	494	304	349	532	832	188	549	1741	462	664	439	1178	655	921	386	1052	492	1088	902	1610	773	407	1307	985	647	554	1460	650	600	1510	998	691	756	451	776	805	777	1679	905	3756	1401	1775	985	5943	6420	1476	478	397	3984	1872	294	5411	455	1180	192	1109	694	1257	1057	380	571	508	2171	932	1737	694	273	447	310	839	1049	1210	1983	1877	381	1615	997	679	3502	1111	1074	1748	841	612	1818	921	1573	838	468	890	262	745	303	2770	332	505	2424	533	409	502	658	2407	2643	673	434	2025	451	5347	1617	842	1377	277	439	492	936	516	668	325	682	692	380	491	1340	1075	822	1800	466	700	1652	687	448	402	2286	1165	1887	596	2398	1150	614	1337	2479	426	381	753	580	299	953	441	667	412	1216	1939	558	574	2371	1907	1321	1624	1866	528	707	560	539	474	531	559	899	220	604	602	1083	2699	1550	533	628	2893	450	684	1967	492	526	581	766	473	1091
2020-09-18	232	438	531	397	705	892	1039	2124	2316	677	950	469	1544	1252	9041	747	2250	1207	434	3864	1075	474	7530	547	2123	347	1016	1697	1779	644	365	585	881	2005	1480	440	965	401	763	402	1447	1059	849	508	794	2634	2372	588	333	378	830	789	385	498	1086	245	4034	2008	325	2164	663	684	792	341	1545	2215	743	1662	2028	285	305	499	1853	787	958	570	1582	595	391	497	306	350	532	833	189	553	1764	464	665	441	1183	657	932	388	1058	495	1098	907	1615	780	408	1319	987	652	558	1469	653	602	1520	1000	706	757	452	782	812	782	1681	909	3825	1422	1784	987	6032	6462	1483	481	401	4077	1878	295	5475	459	1184	194	1113	697	1264	1061	382	575	510	2201	936	1749	697	274	450	315	843	1054	1224	1994	1886	383	1629	1000	688	3534	1116	1082	1752	846	614	1841	924	1589	842	470	894	264	749	304	2823	333	512	2436	540	412	506	660	2442	2663	678	435	2045	458	5388	1622	846	1400	279	440	495	940	519	670	327	683	701	382	495	1358	1078	826	1807	471	708	1674	692	450	405	2305	1170	1894	597	2428	1153	615	1339	2512	428	382	756	583	300	954	444	669	413	1221	1949	560	575	2382	1919	1330	1636	1898	530	710	562	540	477	536	560	902	223	605	606	1090	2717	1557	534	636	2932	451	686	1985	494	528	584	771	475	1098
2020-09-19	233	439	533	400	709	894	1046	2132	2324	680	954	472	1547	1255	9193	759	2267	1213	436	3953	1084	477	7594	550	2132	348	1022	1707	1786	646	367	590	900	2029	1495	442	970	403	764	405	1450	1067	850	510	795	2647	2383	591	334	380	833	791	386	502	1091	246	4059	2025	328	2172	664	687	794	342	1551	2221	747	1675	2037	287	307	500	1859	792	960	573	1593	597	392	499	308	352	533	834	189	555	1788	466	667	443	1189	658	942	390	1066	499	1106	912	1622	787	409	1329	991	658	562	1476	655	603	1530	1002	722	758	453	788	816	786	1682	914	3879	1443	1793	989	6112	6495	1490	483	404	4175	1884	298	5537	463	1186	196	1117	699	1274	1066	383	578	511	2233	940	1764	699	276	453	319	847	1059	1239	2004	1895	385	1643	1003	696	3566	1120	1090	1757	852	617	1865	927	1605	846	472	897	265	753	305	2850	334	524	2450	547	414	509	661	2472	2683	683	435	2066	465	5428	1628	850	1422	280	442	497	945	521	672	328	685	707	383	499	1376	1081	829	1812	476	716	1697	696	452	408	2322	1176	1901	599	2457	1156	617	1343	2543	431	384	759	586	301	954	446	671	414	1229	1960	562	576	2392	1931	1338	1643	1931	533	712	564	542	479	540	561	907	227	607	609	1096	2735	1564	535	642	2970	453	689	2002	497	530	587	776	477	1105
2020-09-20	234	441	535	402	714	896	1053	2139	2333	683	957	474	1551	1258	9348	769	2285	1219	438	4040	1093	480	7658	552	2142	350	1028	1716	1792	650	369	596	918	2054	1511	444	973	405	766	406	1454	1074	851	512	796	2659	2394	593	336	382	837	793	386	507	1095	247	4085	2042	332	2181	666	690	796	343	1556	2227	752	1688	2044	288	308	502	1866	798	962	576	1605	599	393	501	309	353	534	835	190	559	1812	468	669	444	1194	660	953	393	1072	502	1116	919	1629	794	410	1342	993	664	567	1484	658	604	1541	1005	738	758	454	794	820	791	1684	918	3928	1465	1799	990	6195	6527	1496	486	408	4262	1889	300	5584	466	1188	198	1122	701	1281	1070	385	582	513	2263	944	1774	702	277	455	324	851	1063	1252	2015	1903	387	1658	1005	704	3598	1125	1099	1762	857	620	1889	930	1622	851	473	899	266	758	306	2882	335	534	2465	555	416	513	662	2503	2702	689	436	2086	472	5470	1633	854	1444	282	445	499	950	525	674	330	687	716	384	502	1395	1084	833	1817	481	724	1722	700	454	411	2339	1182	1908	601	2487	1159	618	1346	2574	433	385	762	589	302	955	448	674	415	1238	1968	564	578	2398	1943	1343	1652	1964	535	715	566	543	481	545	562	911	230	608	612	1102	2754	1571	535	649	3007	454	691	2019	500	532	591	781	479	1112
2020-09-21	235	442	537	404	720	898	1062	2151	2342	686	961	477	1556	1261	9505	781	2310	1224	442	4156	1102	483	7723	555	2152	352	1034	1726	1799	653	371	601	935	2078	1526	446	981	408	767	409	1458	1082	853	513	797	2674	2407	596	337	384	842	794	387	511	1100	247	4116	2060	335	2189	668	693	798	345	1561	2234	756	1701	2058	289	310	503	1872	802	964	580	1617	602	395	504	311	354	535	836	191	562	1837	469	670	446	1199	661	963	395	1080	506	1125	930	1636	801	410	1353	997	670	571	1492	660	606	1551	1007	754	759	455	800	828	795	1686	922	3980	1489	1812	992	6297	6573	1503	489	412	4345	1895	305	5649	470	1190	199	1126	703	1289	1074	386	585	517	2290	948	1790	705	279	458	329	855	1068	1268	2026	1912	390	1677	1007	712	3631	1130	1107	1771	863	624	1913	934	1639	855	475	901	268	763	306	2924	336	545	2481	562	419	516	664	2541	2727	697	437	2107	479	5511	1638	858	1466	283	447	503	955	527	676	331	688	725	385	507	1414	1087	836	1825	486	732	1750	705	456	414	2362	1188	1916	603	2518	1162	620	1348	2606	436	386	766	592	303	956	450	677	417	1251	1979	566	579	2412	1955	1350	1665	1998	537	717	568	545	484	550	564	918	233	610	616	1108	2771	1578	536	656	3054	456	694	2041	503	534	594	787	481	1120

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-14