COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-14

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2108-3004-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-3009-03 --08-3104-1204-18 --04-0204-1904-0408-3005-0304-2003-2603-2609-0204-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-15 -- -- --04-0803-2808-3104-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0505-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2009-0304-1104-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0509-0203-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0108-2209-0203-2604-1304-1903-2405-0309-0204-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1004-2204-07 -- --03-2503-2609-0306-1404-1303-2503-2508-25 --04-0304-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-3003-2503-2804-2903-2504-2004-1803-2604-2609-0204-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-1008-0204-1004-2004-1504-2209-0109-0303-3107-2704-2904-1404-14 --04-0703-3004-2204-1004-0505-2403-1904-21 --04-20 --05-1404-17 --04-1304-1404-0505-0704-2009-0109-0104-1804-2203-2904-2103-2603-2304-2004-2309-0305-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0908-2904-2603-2109-0204-1803-2703-2704-1403-29 --04-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0508-2907-2609-0303-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0603-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2203-2503-2303-2409-0303-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-1804-20 --04-1904-1403-1704-1505-0304-1509-0209-0304-1404-1404-1704-1504-1608-3003-2904-2004-1304-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 14 18 12 22 13 6 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 30 167 30 21 6 8 20 8 77 11 9 51 7 16 25 12 38 21 6 9 6 19 11 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 24 5 11 49 9 15 19 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 16 6 32 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 43 13 7 24 9 11 23 29 17 20 16 16 16 18 23 43 16 39 32 95 75 6 37 8 10 23 24 4 5 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 68 37 7 25 13 10 39 21 14 33 18 12 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 7 4 30 6 7 14 2 3 37 33 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 27 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 10 8 8 23 17 15 44 8 12 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 13 16 39 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 35 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 14 11 14 19 53 37 10 13 48 8 15 28 12 10 12 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 146 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 9 40 2 25 13 177 155 13 8 -4 25 4 162 30 16 15 -6 163 27 18 14 45 -12 14 3 13 152 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 31 33 23 37 8 17 12 12 28 -7 30 169 0 20 15 9 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 3 11 26 18 21 10 15 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 159 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 154 149 11 10 20 9 31 143 16 6 0 7 32 11 21 18 15 8 169 85 9 12 -2 131 13 30 -30 -8 44 8 -47 -11 11 -29 11 26 3 32 38 0 -12 10 27 10 -8 19 -15 22 151 16 17 20 6 4 5 132 17 11 25 29 140 167 7 111 29 16 21 13 14 26 8 15 32 1 3 10 21 28 10 10 7 -77 -10 166 169 14 13 8 5 -4 12 28 35 167 48 -12 14 1 24 -131 14 22 7 14 -14 43 148 13 -4 159 27 3 18 13 5 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 153 119 165 -10 6 3 44 15 24 -3 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 9 7 14 163 -4 9 14 16 106 36 12 24 20 5 7 23 42 23 161 166 10 19 34 13 9 154 1 19 14 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 175 43 30 30 38 30 22 21 43 17 36 24 56 25 36 24 178 165 27 41 17 40 27 166 52 37 21 17 184 39 43 21 62 13 40 33 26 174 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 42 58 54 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 179 33 41 21 33 36 20 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 29 41 38 39 36 38 39 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 173 24 42 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 106 169 185 22 34 43 21 49 166 33 36 11 25 51 26 30 32 22 14 173 91 33 20 19 163 24 43 11 18 72 21 16 54 22 10 40 43 11 44 60 18 27 19 44 17 28 43 13 45 177 32 50 37 19 31 35 138 26 40 40 50 174 176 26 133 44 34 39 28 22 38 29 29 69 13 34 36 63 36 38 37 25 53 42 174 177 32 47 16 37 14 16 42 50 174 71 21 42 27 42 27 40 53 20 38 18 59 170 44 16 170 41 16 25 35 27 26 36 24 24 41 40 32 18 16 24 29 172 136 177 10 28 47 61 31 48 26 30 41 17 35 49 26 21 21 62 45 17 40 18 16 22 170 13 20 37 41 141 62 30 52 35 44 32 18 29 55 44 182 172 39 41 44 34 32 171 28 35 36 36
Last total 227 432 525 391 687 1381 885 296 1007 2077 2285 664 936 995 687 460 1525 1241 8506 705 2164 1186 420 3513 517 1040 464 7302 549 539 2087 341 993 1661 456 1755 634 358 565 816 1917 1423 431 938 393 758 824 395 1432 1029 843 500 790 2595 2330 578 327 371 812 784 384 483 1071 242 3928 1944 314 508 2134 656 674 786 335 1523 289 2193 726 747 1613 1996 217 281 560 492 298 489 1824 769 950 505 477 233 558 1541 586 386 488 300 345 529 830 186 538 1676 456 600 252 660 434 1163 650 891 379 1031 483 1066 420 887 1589 303 756 187 405 1279 978 633 543 1437 641 594 1481 992 651 753 449 761 788 765 888 1672 894 3571 1336 1746 976 5725 6297 415 1457 471 388 3728 1853 715 156 286 5233 445 1173 246 188 1097 238 367 689 1235 1046 377 563 501 2085 922 1698 147 686 269 440 298 830 234 1039 1168 381 376 1957 1851 376 1575 990 659 3417 1099 1057 1731 826 603 1752 914 1531 828 464 880 258 732 301 2656 329 479 221 2379 513 403 492 654 123 157 2300 2571 660 431 1969 434 437 5238 1604 831 1313 489 272 433 485 922 125 737 504 662 377 321 678 672 377 478 1293 1067 813 1779 453 680 1576 675 442 393 2235 1150 1862 590 312 2319 491 1141 610 1330 2389 419 378 244 744 683 573 296 951 436 660 408 319 68 1191 1906 553 343 569 2336 1875 1298 1591 1781 520 700 554 535 468 520 555 79 885 212 599 592 1065 2639 1532 531 607 2765 444 678 1908 463 485 522 572 753 467 1070
Last daily increment 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 1 0 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 45 14 16 3 1 43 0 1 0 28 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 0 4 1 1 14 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 11 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 20 14 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 9 1 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 1 1 2 3 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 4 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 20 16 0 1 34 23 0 0 2 2 20 1 1 0 0 59 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 2 18 1 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 8 1 0 0 14 0 8 1 3 24 0 11 0 0 1 4 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 7 0 3 4 2 1 1 0 0 29 3 0 0 13 3 0 16 0 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 1 5 0 0 3 0 0 15 3 3 1 13 0 4 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 1 0 7 7 1 0 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 0 0 30 0 0 5 17 0 0 13 0 0 1 3 2 0 4
Last week 8 6 11 8 24 2 17 2 51 53 50 27 19 5 5 7 23 17 664 55 116 41 17 416 3 38 19 368 4 8 53 7 49 34 5 29 15 15 21 72 128 79 7 35 11 7 2 19 33 53 10 12 15 66 67 9 9 9 41 8 7 14 42 6 147 90 18 5 29 11 19 13 9 33 2 48 17 3 64 55 0 6 5 5 12 11 52 25 8 3 3 5 11 63 12 6 9 9 6 6 6 6 19 143 12 5 3 7 8 33 11 85 23 31 21 48 4 17 36 5 31 5 12 54 18 24 30 39 20 16 75 15 72 9 6 25 29 23 2 10 23 244 123 43 21 437 227 3 30 12 16 423 37 5 0 9 353 16 14 5 9 26 3 5 8 31 14 6 10 15 159 16 57 4 15 8 13 16 21 0 12 73 5 2 48 76 8 69 20 49 207 25 62 27 36 13 124 7 86 15 7 20 12 22 6 159 9 62 0 76 52 21 27 11 2 3 184 130 21 6 114 32 4 176 22 22 106 5 9 7 9 30 0 1 21 7 2 7 7 42 6 18 114 16 21 41 23 45 147 23 12 23 91 35 50 6 4 149 4 17 9 14 155 16 6 5 13 4 9 8 8 9 11 10 0 5 42 78 8 5 10 80 72 54 47 148 18 13 8 6 9 17 6 1 28 12 8 21 27 137 30 7 56 212 9 10 97 5 10 9 15 43 11 45
Days since peak 152 146 15 138 158 153 150 157 170 173 144 170 149 171 123 165 149 168 11 14 155 149 165 148 163 15 134 147 172 172 12 151 141 171 126 180 152 159 170 14 159 146 169 150 128 151 164 168 132 145 132 134 129 160 150 156 134 148 165 147 11 156 147 171 164 145 167 173 175 149 151 148 124 157 171 144 142 150 152 155 146 146 151 151 145 151 144 174 168 173 173 150 168 149 139 126 171 104 168 151 148 152 168 126 170 162 12 169 152 147 172 173 147 173 144 152 142 149 172 75 23 12 172 154 148 174 134 12 150 146 183 177 134 157 145 160 173 172 11 92 154 173 173 20 164 140 176 168 113 169 175 133 173 171 144 145 171 146 132 168 173 170 138 173 147 149 172 141 12 149 133 145 169 159 157 43 157 147 152 145 13 11 167 49 138 153 153 160 168 145 157 162 113 179 146 147 123 150 154 153 162 130 147 13 13 149 145 169 146 172 175 147 144 11 111 175 152 166 150 173 139 138 174 145 171 128 16 141 177 12 149 171 171 153 169 152 153 168 166 147 143 157 168 167 161 162 16 50 11 177 160 152 125 153 145 165 154 150 173 156 150 161 173 171 124 140 173 145 173 175 174 11 174 164 154 149 43 127 160 149 147 148 153 181 152 134 152 12 11 153 153 150 152 151 15 169 147 154 146

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast DevonEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-14 227 432 525 391 687 885 1007 2077 2285 664 936 460 1525 1241 8506 705 2164 1186 420 3513 1040 464 7302 539 2087 341 993 1661 1755 634 358 565 816 1917 1423 431 938 393 758 395 1432 1029 843 500 790 2595 2330 578 327 371 812 784 384 483 1071 242 3928 1944 314 2134 656 674 786 335 1523 2193 726 1613 1996 281 298 489 1824 769 950 558 1541 586 386 488 300 345 529 830 186 538 1676 456 660 434 1163 650 891 379 1031 483 1066 887 1589 756 405 1279 978 633 543 1437 641 594 1481 992 651 753 449 761 788 765 1672 894 3571 1336 1746 976 5725 6297 1457 471 388 3728 1853 286 5233 445 1173 188 1097 689 1235 1046 377 563 501 2085 922 1698 686 269 440 298 830 1039 1168 1957 1851 376 1575 990 659 3417 1099 1057 1731 826 603 1752 914 1531 828 464 880 258 732 301 2656 329 479 2379 513 403 492 654 2300 2571 660 431 1969 434 5238 1604 831 1313 272 433 485 922 504 662 321 678 672 377 478 1293 1067 813 1779 453 680 1576 675 442 393 2235 1150 1862 590 2319 1141 610 1330 2389 419 378 744 573 296 951 436 660 408 1191 1906 553 569 2336 1875 1298 1591 1781 520 700 554 535 468 520 555 885 212 599 592 1065 2639 1532 531 607 2765 444 678 1908 485 522 572 753 467 1070
2020-09-15 228 433 531 392 694 887 1014 2099 2292 667 940 462 1532 1245 8551 721 2172 1192 423 3659 1040 467 7330 541 2095 342 993 1669 1761 637 360 570 854 1937 1435 439 947 393 759 397 1436 1037 845 502 792 2599 2339 582 328 373 816 785 385 487 1071 243 3949 1949 317 2141 658 676 789 337 1528 2193 729 1625 2005 282 300 491 1829 773 952 561 1550 588 388 490 301 346 529 831 187 541 1695 457 661 437 1168 652 906 381 1045 486 1073 893 1597 757 406 1284 983 638 543 1444 643 594 1491 992 663 754 450 766 798 769 1675 898 3663 1369 1754 979 5761 6347 1463 473 393 3889 1859 291 5326 448 1175 190 1101 691 1242 1050 379 565 503 2121 925 1709 693 270 442 302 830 1049 1182 1965 1860 378 1599 992 664 3444 1103 1065 1738 831 606 1772 917 1531 832 466 883 259 736 302 2703 330 479 2393 519 405 495 656 2337 2579 665 432 1986 434 5283 1608 835 1324 273 435 487 927 504 664 322 679 679 378 482 1300 1070 816 1786 457 685 1604 680 444 395 2251 1156 1870 592 2335 1144 611 1339 2394 422 379 747 575 297 952 438 662 408 1200 1918 555 571 2347 1877 1304 1612 1806 522 702 556 537 470 524 557 885 213 601 595 1071 2660 1538 532 613 2797 448 680 1930 485 524 576 753 469 1070
2020-09-16 230 435 536 393 700 890 1020 2114 2299 670 943 464 1538 1249 8598 737 2180 1197 425 3761 1040 469 7360 544 2104 344 994 1678 1767 640 362 574 872 1958 1447 439 952 393 761 400 1440 1045 847 504 794 2610 2348 586 330 375 820 787 385 491 1071 244 3969 1954 320 2148 660 679 793 338 1534 2193 733 1636 2014 284 301 493 1834 778 954 564 1559 591 389 492 303 348 529 833 188 544 1714 459 663 440 1173 654 920 384 1050 489 1080 898 1605 758 408 1289 987 643 544 1452 645 594 1502 992 675 755 451 771 808 773 1678 902 3729 1392 1763 981 5798 6395 1468 476 398 4024 1865 296 5396 451 1178 191 1104 693 1250 1054 380 568 506 2144 929 1719 699 272 445 306 831 1052 1195 1974 1869 380 1621 995 669 3471 1107 1074 1744 836 609 1792 919 1531 835 468 886 261 741 302 2752 331 480 2406 525 407 499 657 2375 2588 670 433 2004 434 5328 1612 838 1336 275 437 490 931 504 666 324 681 686 379 486 1308 1072 819 1794 461 691 1632 684 446 398 2267 1161 1879 594 2351 1147 613 1343 2399 424 380 749 578 298 953 440 665 409 1209 1930 557 573 2359 1878 1311 1621 1832 525 705 558 539 472 527 558 885 215 603 598 1076 2682 1544 533 619 2831 451 683 1952 486 527 579 753 471 1070
2020-09-17 231 436 542 395 706 892 1027 2130 2305 672 946 467 1544 1252 8641 752 2187 1203 427 3875 1040 472 7389 546 2112 345 995 1686 1773 643 364 579 895 1977 1458 442 959 393 762 402 1444 1053 849 507 796 2620 2357 589 331 377 825 788 386 495 1072 245 3988 1960 323 2155 663 681 796 340 1539 2193 736 1647 2023 285 303 495 1839 782 956 567 1568 593 391 494 305 349 529 834 188 548 1733 460 664 443 1179 657 934 386 1057 492 1087 904 1612 759 409 1294 991 647 544 1458 648 594 1511 992 688 757 452 776 815 777 1681 905 3817 1413 1772 984 5834 6445 1474 478 402 4150 1871 301 5465 454 1180 193 1108 695 1257 1057 381 570 508 2177 933 1730 705 273 447 310 831 1053 1209 1983 1878 382 1643 997 674 3497 1110 1082 1751 842 612 1812 922 1532 839 469 888 262 745 303 2800 332 487 2419 532 410 502 659 2402 2595 675 435 2021 434 5372 1617 842 1347 276 439 492 936 504 668 325 682 692 380 491 1315 1075 822 1801 465 697 1659 688 448 400 2282 1166 1887 595 2367 1149 614 1346 2404 427 381 752 580 299 954 442 667 409 1218 1942 559 575 2370 1880 1317 1636 1857 527 708 560 541 474 531 559 885 216 604 600 1082 2704 1550 534 624 2863 454 685 1973 486 529 583 753 472 1070
2020-09-18 232 438 547 396 713 894 1034 2140 2312 675 950 469 1549 1256 8688 768 2194 1209 429 3975 1040 474 7420 549 2120 347 996 1695 1778 646 366 583 912 1998 1470 443 968 393 763 405 1448 1061 852 510 798 2631 2366 593 333 379 829 790 387 500 1072 245 4008 1965 326 2163 665 683 800 341 1544 2193 739 1659 2032 286 304 497 1845 786 958 570 1577 595 392 496 306 350 529 836 189 551 1752 461 666 446 1184 659 948 388 1061 495 1094 909 1620 760 410 1299 996 652 545 1465 650 594 1521 992 700 758 452 781 821 781 1684 909 3892 1431 1781 986 5871 6496 1480 480 407 4279 1877 306 5542 457 1182 195 1112 697 1264 1061 383 573 511 2206 936 1740 710 274 449 314 831 1058 1222 1992 1886 385 1664 1000 679 3522 1114 1090 1757 847 614 1832 925 1533 843 471 891 264 750 304 2850 333 489 2432 538 412 505 660 2432 2603 681 436 2038 434 5417 1621 846 1358 278 441 494 941 504 670 327 684 699 382 495 1322 1078 825 1809 469 703 1686 692 450 403 2298 1172 1895 597 2383 1152 616 1346 2409 429 381 755 583 300 955 444 669 409 1227 1954 561 577 2381 1881 1324 1648 1883 530 710 563 543 476 535 561 885 218 606 603 1088 2725 1556 535 630 2896 457 687 1995 487 532 586 753 474 1070
2020-09-19 233 439 553 397 719 897 1041 2146 2319 678 953 471 1550 1260 8735 785 2201 1214 432 4071 1041 476 7450 551 2128 348 997 1704 1784 649 368 587 937 2018 1482 444 973 393 764 407 1452 1068 854 512 800 2648 2375 597 334 382 832 791 387 504 1072 246 4027 1970 329 2170 667 685 803 343 1549 2193 742 1670 2041 288 306 499 1850 791 960 574 1586 598 394 498 308 352 529 837 190 554 1770 463 667 449 1189 661 963 390 1070 498 1102 915 1628 761 412 1304 1000 657 545 1473 652 594 1531 992 713 759 453 786 824 786 1687 912 3970 1451 1790 989 5908 6546 1486 482 411 4418 1884 311 5609 460 1185 196 1115 700 1271 1065 384 575 513 2237 940 1751 716 276 451 318 831 1058 1235 2002 1894 387 1685 1002 684 3548 1118 1099 1764 852 617 1852 928 1533 847 473 894 265 755 304 2902 334 500 2445 544 414 508 662 2452 2612 686 437 2056 434 5462 1626 849 1369 279 442 496 945 504 672 328 685 706 383 499 1329 1080 828 1816 472 709 1713 696 452 405 2314 1177 1904 599 2398 1155 617 1349 2414 432 382 757 585 301 956 446 671 410 1236 1966 563 579 2392 1883 1330 1652 1909 532 713 565 545 478 538 562 885 219 608 606 1094 2747 1563 536 636 2930 460 689 2016 488 534 590 753 476 1070
2020-09-20 235 441 558 398 725 899 1048 2149 2325 681 957 474 1553 1264 8782 802 2207 1220 434 4143 1041 479 7481 554 2136 350 998 1713 1790 652 369 591 957 2038 1494 445 974 393 766 409 1455 1076 856 513 802 2653 2383 600 336 384 836 793 388 508 1073 247 4046 1975 332 2177 670 687 805 344 1554 2193 745 1681 2050 289 307 501 1855 795 962 577 1595 600 396 500 309 353 529 837 191 557 1789 464 668 452 1194 663 977 392 1073 501 1109 920 1635 763 413 1310 1005 662 546 1480 654 594 1541 992 726 760 454 791 825 790 1690 916 4035 1467 1799 992 5946 6597 1492 485 415 4513 1890 315 5645 463 1187 198 1119 702 1279 1069 385 577 515 2261 944 1761 722 277 453 322 831 1058 1249 2011 1903 389 1706 1004 689 3574 1122 1107 1770 857 620 1872 931 1534 851 475 897 267 759 305 2954 335 508 2458 550 416 512 663 2473 2620 691 438 2073 434 5507 1630 853 1381 281 444 498 950 504 674 329 687 713 384 503 1336 1083 831 1824 476 716 1740 700 454 408 2330 1183 1912 601 2414 1158 619 1350 2419 434 383 760 588 302 957 448 673 410 1245 1978 565 581 2403 1884 1337 1656 1935 534 715 567 547 480 542 564 885 220 609 609 1100 2768 1569 537 642 2964 463 691 2038 488 537 594 753 477 1070
2020-09-21 236 442 563 400 731 901 1054 2153 2332 683 960 476 1555 1267 8831 819 2214 1226 436 4200 1041 481 7511 556 2145 351 1000 1721 1796 655 371 595 966 2059 1506 447 980 393 767 412 1459 1084 858 513 804 2664 2392 604 337 386 840 794 389 512 1073 248 4065 1980 335 2185 672 689 806 346 1560 2193 748 1693 2059 290 309 503 1860 800 964 580 1604 602 397 502 311 354 529 837 191 560 1808 465 670 455 1200 665 991 395 1076 504 1116 926 1643 764 414 1315 1009 666 546 1487 656 594 1551 992 739 761 455 796 828 794 1693 920 4083 1486 1809 994 5984 6648 1498 487 420 4565 1896 320 5699 465 1189 200 1122 704 1286 1073 387 580 518 2279 947 1772 728 279 456 326 831 1059 1263 2021 1911 391 1727 1007 694 3601 1126 1115 1777 862 623 1892 934 1535 855 476 900 268 764 306 3007 336 518 2471 556 417 515 664 2504 2628 696 439 2091 434 5552 1635 856 1392 282 446 500 954 504 676 331 688 720 385 507 1344 1086 834 1831 480 722 1768 704 455 410 2346 1188 1921 603 2430 1161 620 1352 2424 437 384 762 590 303 958 450 675 410 1254 1990 567 582 2414 1886 1343 1661 1962 537 718 569 549 482 546 565 885 222 611 611 1106 2790 1575 538 647 2998 466 693 2060 489 539 597 753 479 1070

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-15 to 2020-09-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast DevonEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonSunderlandSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-14 227 432 525 391 687 885 1007 2077 2285 664 936 460 1525 1241 8506 705 2164 1186 420 3513 1040 464 7302 539 2087 341 993 1661 1755 634 358 565 816 1917 1423 431 938 393 758 395 1432 1029 843 500 790 2595 2330 578 327 371 812 784 384 483 1071 242 3928 1944 314 2134 656 674 786 335 1523 2193 726 1613 1996 281 298 489 1824 769 950 558 1541 586 386 488 300 345 529 830 186 538 1676 456 660 434 1163 650 891 379 1031 483 1066 887 1589 756 405 1279 978 633 543 1437 641 594 1481 992 651 753 449 761 788 765 1672 894 3571 1336 1746 976 5725 6297 1457 471 388 3728 1853 286 5233 445 1173 188 1097 689 1235 1046 377 563 501 2085 922 1698 686 269 440 298 830 1039 1168 1957 1851 376 1575 990 659 3417 1099 1057 1731 826 603 1752 914 1531 828 464 880 258 732 301 2656 329 479 2379 513 403 492 654 2300 2571 660 431 1969 434 5238 1604 831 1313 272 433 485 922 504 662 321 678 672 377 478 1293 1067 813 1779 453 680 1576 675 442 393 2235 1150 1862 590 2319 1141 610 1330 2389 419 378 744 573 296 951 436 660 408 1191 1906 553 569 2336 1875 1298 1591 1781 520 700 554 535 468 520 555 885 212 599 592 1065 2639 1532 531 607 2765 444 678 1908 485 522 572 753 467 1070
2020-09-15 228 433 526 392 692 886 1013 2087 2291 667 939 462 1528 1242 8601 714 2187 1190 424 3581 1047 465 7346 540 2094 342 997 1668 1759 636 359 568 830 1935 1434 433 945 394 759 396 1435 1036 844 502 791 2601 2338 580 328 372 816 785 384 485 1073 243 3951 1957 317 2138 657 676 787 336 1527 2198 729 1623 2002 282 299 491 1830 772 952 560 1548 587 386 490 301 346 530 830 186 542 1695 457 661 435 1167 651 900 381 1038 485 1071 890 1594 760 405 1285 980 636 546 1444 643 596 1489 993 661 754 449 764 790 769 1674 897 3623 1357 1752 979 5774 6336 1462 473 390 3800 1859 288 5289 448 1174 189 1100 690 1242 1048 378 565 502 2112 924 1708 688 270 442 301 832 1041 1181 1963 1859 377 1585 992 664 3441 1102 1059 1734 830 605 1771 915 1541 830 465 882 259 736 302 2683 330 485 2393 518 405 495 655 2335 2593 663 432 1985 438 5267 1607 833 1332 273 434 487 926 508 664 322 679 677 378 483 1305 1069 815 1785 456 685 1598 678 444 395 2249 1153 1870 592 2341 1143 611 1332 2417 421 379 747 575 297 952 437 662 409 1198 1916 554 570 2347 1883 1303 1600 1803 522 702 555 536 470 522 556 889 214 600 594 1069 2658 1536 531 612 2803 446 679 1929 486 522 575 756 469 1076
2020-09-16 229 435 528 394 698 887 1021 2100 2299 670 943 465 1533 1246 8746 724 2209 1195 428 3673 1057 468 7406 543 2104 344 1002 1678 1766 641 362 574 847 1958 1449 435 951 396 761 398 1439 1044 846 504 792 2612 2349 582 330 374 822 786 385 490 1077 243 3981 1974 320 2147 659 679 788 338 1533 2203 733 1636 2012 283 301 494 1839 777 954 563 1559 590 388 492 303 347 531 831 187 546 1718 460 662 437 1172 653 911 383 1044 489 1079 896 1603 766 406 1295 982 641 550 1452 646 598 1499 996 676 755 450 770 798 773 1676 901 3680 1379 1763 983 5857 6382 1469 476 394 3893 1865 291 5349 451 1178 191 1105 692 1250 1053 379 568 505 2139 928 1722 691 272 445 306 836 1046 1196 1973 1868 379 1600 995 672 3471 1107 1066 1741 835 609 1794 918 1557 834 467 886 261 740 302 2724 331 493 2409 525 407 498 656 2373 2619 668 433 2005 445 5307 1612 838 1354 275 437 490 931 512 666 324 680 684 379 487 1323 1073 819 1793 461 692 1623 683 446 398 2268 1159 1880 594 2370 1146 612 1335 2448 423 380 750 577 298 952 439 664 411 1208 1927 556 572 2360 1895 1311 1611 1834 525 704 557 537 472 527 557 894 217 602 597 1076 2679 1543 533 619 2850 447 681 1947 489 524 578 761 471 1083
2020-09-17 231 436 529 395 702 889 1031 2114 2307 674 946 468 1539 1249 8892 736 2230 1201 431 3772 1066 471 7467 545 2114 345 1009 1687 1773 643 364 579 864 1982 1464 438 958 399 762 401 1443 1052 847 506 793 2624 2361 585 331 376 827 788 385 494 1082 244 4010 1991 323 2155 661 682 790 339 1539 2210 738 1649 2019 284 303 496 1846 782 956 566 1570 592 389 494 304 349 532 832 188 549 1741 462 664 439 1178 655 921 386 1052 492 1088 902 1610 773 407 1307 985 647 554 1460 650 600 1510 998 691 756 451 776 805 777 1679 905 3756 1401 1775 985 5943 6420 1476 478 397 3984 1872 294 5411 455 1180 192 1109 694 1257 1057 380 571 508 2171 932 1737 694 273 447 310 839 1049 1210 1983 1877 381 1615 997 679 3502 1111 1074 1748 841 612 1818 921 1573 838 468 890 262 745 303 2770 332 505 2424 533 409 502 658 2407 2643 673 434 2025 451 5347 1617 842 1377 277 439 492 936 516 668 325 682 692 380 491 1340 1075 822 1800 466 700 1652 687 448 402 2286 1165 1887 596 2398 1150 614 1337 2479 426 381 753 580 299 953 441 667 412 1216 1939 558 574 2371 1907 1321 1624 1866 528 707 560 539 474 531 559 899 220 604 602 1083 2699 1550 533 628 2893 450 684 1967 492 526 581 766 473 1091
2020-09-18 232 438 531 397 705 892 1039 2124 2316 677 950 469 1544 1252 9041 747 2250 1207 434 3864 1075 474 7530 547 2123 347 1016 1697 1779 644 365 585 881 2005 1480 440 965 401 763 402 1447 1059 849 508 794 2634 2372 588 333 378 830 789 385 498 1086 245 4034 2008 325 2164 663 684 792 341 1545 2215 743 1662 2028 285 305 499 1853 787 958 570 1582 595 391 497 306 350 532 833 189 553 1764 464 665 441 1183 657 932 388 1058 495 1098 907 1615 780 408 1319 987 652 558 1469 653 602 1520 1000 706 757 452 782 812 782 1681 909 3825 1422 1784 987 6032 6462 1483 481 401 4077 1878 295 5475 459 1184 194 1113 697 1264 1061 382 575 510 2201 936 1749 697 274 450 315 843 1054 1224 1994 1886 383 1629 1000 688 3534 1116 1082 1752 846 614 1841 924 1589 842 470 894 264 749 304 2823 333 512 2436 540 412 506 660 2442 2663 678 435 2045 458 5388 1622 846 1400 279 440 495 940 519 670 327 683 701 382 495 1358 1078 826 1807 471 708 1674 692 450 405 2305 1170 1894 597 2428 1153 615 1339 2512 428 382 756 583 300 954 444 669 413 1221 1949 560 575 2382 1919 1330 1636 1898 530 710 562 540 477 536 560 902 223 605 606 1090 2717 1557 534 636 2932 451 686 1985 494 528 584 771 475 1098
2020-09-19 233 439 533 400 709 894 1046 2132 2324 680 954 472 1547 1255 9193 759 2267 1213 436 3953 1084 477 7594 550 2132 348 1022 1707 1786 646 367 590 900 2029 1495 442 970 403 764 405 1450 1067 850 510 795 2647 2383 591 334 380 833 791 386 502 1091 246 4059 2025 328 2172 664 687 794 342 1551 2221 747 1675 2037 287 307 500 1859 792 960 573 1593 597 392 499 308 352 533 834 189 555 1788 466 667 443 1189 658 942 390 1066 499 1106 912 1622 787 409 1329 991 658 562 1476 655 603 1530 1002 722 758 453 788 816 786 1682 914 3879 1443 1793 989 6112 6495 1490 483 404 4175 1884 298 5537 463 1186 196 1117 699 1274 1066 383 578 511 2233 940 1764 699 276 453 319 847 1059 1239 2004 1895 385 1643 1003 696 3566 1120 1090 1757 852 617 1865 927 1605 846 472 897 265 753 305 2850 334 524 2450 547 414 509 661 2472 2683 683 435 2066 465 5428 1628 850 1422 280 442 497 945 521 672 328 685 707 383 499 1376 1081 829 1812 476 716 1697 696 452 408 2322 1176 1901 599 2457 1156 617 1343 2543 431 384 759 586 301 954 446 671 414 1229 1960 562 576 2392 1931 1338 1643 1931 533 712 564 542 479 540 561 907 227 607 609 1096 2735 1564 535 642 2970 453 689 2002 497 530 587 776 477 1105
2020-09-20 234 441 535 402 714 896 1053 2139 2333 683 957 474 1551 1258 9348 769 2285 1219 438 4040 1093 480 7658 552 2142 350 1028 1716 1792 650 369 596 918 2054 1511 444 973 405 766 406 1454 1074 851 512 796 2659 2394 593 336 382 837 793 386 507 1095 247 4085 2042 332 2181 666 690 796 343 1556 2227 752 1688 2044 288 308 502 1866 798 962 576 1605 599 393 501 309 353 534 835 190 559 1812 468 669 444 1194 660 953 393 1072 502 1116 919 1629 794 410 1342 993 664 567 1484 658 604 1541 1005 738 758 454 794 820 791 1684 918 3928 1465 1799 990 6195 6527 1496 486 408 4262 1889 300 5584 466 1188 198 1122 701 1281 1070 385 582 513 2263 944 1774 702 277 455 324 851 1063 1252 2015 1903 387 1658 1005 704 3598 1125 1099 1762 857 620 1889 930 1622 851 473 899 266 758 306 2882 335 534 2465 555 416 513 662 2503 2702 689 436 2086 472 5470 1633 854 1444 282 445 499 950 525 674 330 687 716 384 502 1395 1084 833 1817 481 724 1722 700 454 411 2339 1182 1908 601 2487 1159 618 1346 2574 433 385 762 589 302 955 448 674 415 1238 1968 564 578 2398 1943 1343 1652 1964 535 715 566 543 481 545 562 911 230 608 612 1102 2754 1571 535 649 3007 454 691 2019 500 532 591 781 479 1112
2020-09-21 235 442 537 404 720 898 1062 2151 2342 686 961 477 1556 1261 9505 781 2310 1224 442 4156 1102 483 7723 555 2152 352 1034 1726 1799 653 371 601 935 2078 1526 446 981 408 767 409 1458 1082 853 513 797 2674 2407 596 337 384 842 794 387 511 1100 247 4116 2060 335 2189 668 693 798 345 1561 2234 756 1701 2058 289 310 503 1872 802 964 580 1617 602 395 504 311 354 535 836 191 562 1837 469 670 446 1199 661 963 395 1080 506 1125 930 1636 801 410 1353 997 670 571 1492 660 606 1551 1007 754 759 455 800 828 795 1686 922 3980 1489 1812 992 6297 6573 1503 489 412 4345 1895 305 5649 470 1190 199 1126 703 1289 1074 386 585 517 2290 948 1790 705 279 458 329 855 1068 1268 2026 1912 390 1677 1007 712 3631 1130 1107 1771 863 624 1913 934 1639 855 475 901 268 763 306 2924 336 545 2481 562 419 516 664 2541 2727 697 437 2107 479 5511 1638 858 1466 283 447 503 955 527 676 331 688 725 385 507 1414 1087 836 1825 486 732 1750 705 456 414 2362 1188 1916 603 2518 1162 620 1348 2606 436 386 766 592 303 956 450 677 417 1251 1979 566 579 2412 1955 1350 1665 1998 537 717 568 545 484 550 564 918 233 610 616 1108 2771 1578 536 656 3054 456 694 2041 503 534 594 787 481 1120

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.