COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-19

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-19

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1504-2108-3004-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2809-0104-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-30 -- -- --04-1204-1809-0604-0204-1904-04 --05-0304-2003-2603-2609-0208-2604-2609-0205-1109-0704-15 -- -- --04-0803-2808-3104-0804-2103-2904-1709-0704-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-03 --04-0204-20 -- --04-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-02 --04-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-05 --03-2904-1504-2009-0703-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-03 --04-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1008-3004-07 -- --09-0403-26 --09-0604-1303-2503-2508-25 --04-0304-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-3003-25 --04-2903-2504-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-22 --04-0804-1008-02 --04-2009-0504-22 -- --04-01 --04-2904-1404-14 --04-0703-3004-2204-1004-08 --03-1904-21 --04-20 --05-1404-17 --04-1304-1404-0505-0704-20 -- --04-1804-22 --09-0503-2609-0804-2004-23 --05-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0904-1604-2603-21 --04-1803-2708-1204-1403-29 --04-1504-1403-3007-2904-2004-2404-1003-30 --04-0604-0508-2907-26 --03-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0609-06 --05-1304-2703-2504-2204-1708-0303-2409-0803-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-1804-20 --04-1904-1403-17 --05-0304-1509-02 --04-1404-1404-1704-1504-1608-3003-2904-2004-1309-05
Peak daily increment 5 8 10 18 12 22 13 6 19 13 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 21 6 98 8 20 8 11 9 52 7 14 11 12 7 21 16 9 6 19 10 15 25 6 19 24 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 4 68 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 6 32 6 10 10 12 30 6 14 2 9 28 43 13 7 24 9 11 23 29 20 16 16 16 18 23 11 16 12 32 54 6 37 8 10 23 24 4 5 17 23 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 10 5 68 7 17 13 21 33 18 12 22 29 15 9 17 15 11 7 4 29 6 7 14 2 3 21 7 8 8 49 21 18 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 10 8 8 17 15 7 8 12 18 7 7 11 17 27 14 9 9 28 13 16 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 13 10 15 9 28 31 5 32 38 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 14 11 14 19 37 10 12 8 15 28 12 10 12 6 16 10 10
Days since peak 157 151 20 143 163 156 155 162 175 18 149 175 154 176 128 170 154 173 160 154 13 170 153 168 139 152 177 177 17 24 146 17 131 12 157 164 175 19 164 151 174 155 12 156 169 173 137 150 136 139 134 165 155 161 139 170 152 152 176 169 150 172 178 180 154 156 153 129 162 176 149 147 155 157 160 151 151 156 156 150 156 149 179 173 178 178 155 173 154 144 131 176 109 156 153 157 173 131 175 167 174 157 152 12 178 152 178 149 157 147 154 177 80 180 159 177 159 153 179 139 155 151 188 182 139 162 20 165 15 177 13 159 178 178 25 169 145 181 173 118 174 180 138 178 176 149 150 176 151 137 173 178 143 178 152 154 177 146 178 154 138 150 164 162 48 152 14 150 171 143 158 158 165 173 150 162 164 184 151 152 128 155 159 158 167 135 152 154 150 14 177 11 152 149 116 180 157 171 155 178 144 143 179 150 176 133 156 146 182 154 176 38 158 174 157 158 173 52 152 148 162 173 166 167 21 55 182 165 157 130 158 150 170 159 155 178 161 155 166 13 129 145 178 150 155 47 179 11 179 169 159 154 48 132 165 154 152 153 158 186 139 157 17 158 158 155 157 156 20 174 152 159 14
Last total 240 448 559 405 711 1392 907 299 1067 2140 2351 694 956 1006 700 484 1561 1270 9578 751 2391 1269 439 4049 524 1103 483 7901 558 547 2145 356 1023 1719 467 1798 653 392 591 939 2209 1531 439 976 418 771 837 414 1483 1096 858 509 813 2693 2447 591 337 378 858 811 397 501 1167 245 4184 2086 349 512 2177 673 700 792 344 1609 298 2309 745 751 1707 2062 219 286 570 506 311 501 1885 792 958 513 481 242 572 1605 617 401 517 313 355 536 831 192 586 1865 473 624 255 669 451 1198 660 1083 405 1065 502 1112 435 929 1639 312 806 192 421 1349 991 674 568 1513 661 613 1530 1001 784 760 450 809 811 780 902 1704 917 3898 1554 1797 1019 6365 6609 419 1509 502 412 4478 1930 724 161 294 5952 472 1187 249 198 1122 241 371 700 1295 1085 381 576 525 2442 944 1790 148 706 282 457 309 866 235 1082 1325 402 388 1997 2054 391 1666 1032 696 3724 1129 1172 1761 861 626 1973 928 1640 866 473 891 279 756 314 2903 336 578 226 2489 562 417 524 665 127 160 2594 2806 685 439 2241 470 443 5500 1659 853 1437 490 279 445 509 958 132 740 527 677 386 328 688 712 384 512 1516 1097 837 1849 462 720 1757 716 457 413 2408 1226 1942 619 325 2605 503 1164 627 1344 2637 438 389 248 776 690 583 300 958 452 679 421 329 70 1279 2034 568 357 580 2460 2024 1364 1645 1984 542 724 562 543 485 534 569 81 951 235 606 615 1109 2935 1573 539 629 3168 456 690 2032 490 512 535 598 799 493 1140
Last daily increment 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 2 4 9 4 1 1 1 3 10 5 199 2 35 6 4 92 0 4 2 58 1 0 4 3 2 11 2 6 1 2 5 27 35 20 1 1 4 0 4 2 2 7 2 2 1 10 18 0 2 2 16 2 0 1 39 0 46 27 4 1 1 1 7 1 1 6 1 9 1 1 13 6 0 0 0 1 3 0 13 2 2 1 0 0 1 5 1 0 5 3 0 2 0 1 8 35 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 25 4 3 5 5 1 5 5 1 12 3 3 8 2 0 5 9 2 1 6 1 26 1 0 8 1 3 0 3 5 44 41 3 4 96 45 0 5 4 2 90 13 0 0 3 99 1 6 0 0 2 0 0 1 13 2 2 1 2 84 1 15 0 3 1 1 1 6 0 6 24 2 2 8 33 2 16 5 6 54 6 37 3 8 5 53 4 7 6 1 0 3 5 3 21 2 9 1 19 8 1 1 0 0 0 41 40 2 1 28 5 1 25 9 4 22 0 5 0 2 4 1 0 7 0 0 0 0 12 0 5 34 3 5 7 2 1 29 5 3 2 31 16 9 5 4 45 0 2 1 1 40 3 1 1 3 0 1 0 1 4 2 2 1 0 9 15 1 1 1 16 27 6 5 34 5 2 1 0 3 0 4 0 11 2 0 1 1 44 4 2 1 41 2 2 18 3 2 3 3 7 3 10
Last week 11 16 31 14 24 11 27 3 56 59 68 29 22 11 9 22 36 32 1058 58 232 82 19 550 6 58 14 599 9 6 58 14 28 60 10 41 15 37 23 123 283 107 10 37 22 14 12 19 48 68 15 7 20 101 119 12 10 7 48 21 10 18 95 3 260 146 36 5 40 16 27 9 9 68 11 120 18 4 98 64 1 4 8 15 13 10 59 24 9 6 4 9 13 66 32 14 28 13 10 6 1 6 47 201 14 21 2 13 15 30 7 197 26 33 21 48 14 42 48 6 48 5 15 68 13 38 25 71 20 20 49 9 136 8 1 49 25 15 14 29 22 332 223 45 40 647 329 3 49 32 26 731 74 9 5 8 764 28 20 2 10 20 2 4 8 61 35 3 11 24 365 22 88 1 19 12 15 13 32 1 43 157 21 11 36 208 15 94 38 38 324 29 125 26 32 24 222 13 111 37 9 12 20 22 10 258 7 101 5 113 51 15 27 11 4 3 303 233 21 7 271 34 5 240 51 22 125 1 8 11 25 36 7 2 22 14 9 6 9 41 6 32 220 30 23 68 9 39 190 42 16 20 181 74 79 24 12 281 12 23 12 11 259 17 9 4 31 8 10 3 6 16 18 11 8 2 75 128 13 14 11 123 149 64 48 201 22 23 8 5 17 12 14 1 69 23 8 22 45 315 35 8 25 381 10 10 136 24 27 13 28 43 24 66
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- --04-16 --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-22 -- -- --03-25 --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- --04-01 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-25 -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-21
Previous peak daily increment 47 65 25 37 21 43 39 75 75 25 69 43 31 31 24 28 30
Low between peaks 1 1 1 1 1 0 16 2 10 1 2 1 1 1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-20 to 2020-09-26

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-19 240 448 559 405 711 1392 907 1067 2140 2351 694 956 1006 700 484 1561 1270 9578 751 2391 1269 439 4049 524 1103 483 7901 558 547 2145 356 1023 1719 467 1798 653 392 591 939 2209 1531 439 976 418 771 837 414 1483 1096 858 509 813 2693 2447 591 337 378 858 811 397 501 1167 4184 2086 349 2177 673 700 792 344 1609 298 2309 745 1707 2062 570 506 311 501 1885 792 958 513 242 572 1605 617 401 517 313 355 536 192 586 1865 473 624 669 451 1198 660 1083 405 1065 502 1112 435 929 1639 312 806 421 1349 991 674 568 1513 661 613 1530 1001 784 760 809 811 780 902 1704 917 3898 1554 1797 1019 6365 6609 1509 502 412 4478 1930 724 294 5952 472 1187 198 1122 700 1295 1085 576 525 2442 944 1790 706 282 457 309 866 1082 1325 402 388 1997 2054 391 1666 1032 696 3724 1129 1172 1761 861 626 1973 928 1640 866 473 891 279 756 314 2903 336 578 2489 562 417 524 665 2594 2806 685 439 2241 470 5500 1659 853 1437 279 445 509 958 132 527 677 386 328 688 712 384 512 1516 1097 837 1849 462 720 1757 716 457 413 2408 1226 1942 619 325 2605 503 1164 627 1344 2637 438 389 776 690 583 958 452 679 421 329 1279 2034 568 357 580 2460 2024 1364 1645 1984 542 724 562 485 534 569 951 235 606 615 1109 2935 1573 539 629 3168 456 690 2032 490 512 535 598 799 493 1140
2020-09-20 242 450 567 407 716 1393 910 1076 2151 2361 699 960 1007 702 487 1563 1275 9760 762 2430 1280 442 4129 525 1112 486 7938 559 549 2154 358 1030 1729 469 1805 656 395 596 961 2240 1552 441 982 419 773 838 417 1489 1104 861 511 816 2693 2465 594 339 380 864 814 398 504 1184 4222 2110 355 2184 675 703 793 346 1618 299 2334 748 1716 2073 571 507 313 503 1895 797 960 514 243 575 1616 620 403 521 315 356 537 193 592 1895 476 625 671 453 1204 662 1118 408 1076 505 1121 436 936 1647 313 812 423 1360 995 680 572 1523 664 614 1541 1003 846 761 816 821 784 904 1709 921 3950 1594 1806 1027 6405 6655 1516 506 416 4526 1939 725 296 6061 476 1190 200 1126 702 1304 1090 580 528 2500 947 1804 709 284 460 312 868 1088 1347 404 390 2006 2090 393 1681 1037 698 3778 1134 1187 1767 867 630 2020 931 1656 871 475 894 283 761 315 2920 337 588 2506 571 420 528 667 2641 2834 690 440 2241 476 5542 1666 857 1481 281 447 512 963 133 531 679 387 329 690 714 385 517 1553 1097 841 1859 466 722 1840 721 459 416 2441 1236 1953 622 327 2641 505 1168 629 1353 2667 441 391 780 691 585 959 454 682 423 330 1291 2034 570 359 582 2477 2055 1373 1655 2015 545 727 564 488 537 571 960 238 608 619 1115 2983 1580 540 633 3229 458 692 2057 493 516 537 602 805 496 1150
2020-09-21 243 451 573 410 720 1394 913 1084 2162 2370 703 964 1009 704 490 1569 1279 9930 773 2468 1291 445 4207 526 1121 490 7974 560 550 2164 360 1036 1738 470 1812 660 398 602 983 2270 1572 443 993 421 774 840 420 1494 1112 863 513 819 2706 2482 596 341 382 869 816 399 508 1199 4258 2133 361 2192 678 707 796 348 1626 300 2354 752 1725 2084 573 510 315 505 1905 801 962 515 244 578 1628 623 405 524 317 358 538 194 598 1923 479 626 673 456 1210 664 1152 412 1081 509 1129 437 942 1656 314 817 424 1371 998 686 577 1533 667 615 1552 1005 888 763 823 826 787 905 1713 925 4002 1634 1816 1034 6508 6699 1524 509 419 4578 1948 727 299 6169 480 1193 202 1131 704 1312 1095 584 531 2554 951 1818 713 286 463 315 871 1094 1368 406 391 2015 2125 395 1697 1041 700 3832 1139 1217 1773 873 633 2066 933 1671 876 476 897 287 765 317 2946 338 599 2522 579 423 532 669 2685 2859 694 441 2261 481 5584 1672 861 1511 282 449 516 969 133 534 681 389 331 691 715 386 522 1588 1099 844 1868 470 725 1881 725 462 419 2480 1245 1964 625 328 2677 506 1171 631 1353 2706 443 393 784 691 588 960 457 684 424 331 1303 2038 573 361 584 2493 2083 1382 1665 2045 548 730 566 490 541 572 969 241 609 622 1122 3029 1588 541 637 3295 460 694 2081 496 519 539 606 811 499 1160
2020-09-22 245 453 580 412 725 1395 916 1093 2172 2380 708 968 1010 706 493 1573 1284 10110 783 2507 1303 448 4285 526 1130 493 8009 561 552 2173 362 1042 1748 472 1818 663 401 607 1005 2302 1593 444 1002 422 776 841 423 1500 1120 865 515 821 2713 2499 599 342 383 875 818 401 511 1216 4295 2157 367 2200 680 710 796 349 1635 301 2374 755 1734 2095 574 514 317 507 1914 806 964 516 245 580 1639 626 407 527 319 359 539 195 603 1951 481 626 674 458 1216 666 1186 415 1087 512 1138 438 949 1664 315 822 426 1382 1001 692 581 1542 670 616 1562 1007 933 764 829 831 791 907 1718 929 4053 1674 1825 1042 6607 6743 1531 512 423 4633 1957 728 301 6285 484 1196 204 1135 706 1321 1099 588 535 2612 954 1832 716 288 465 318 873 1100 1391 409 393 2024 2160 398 1712 1045 702 3886 1144 1235 1779 879 636 2113 936 1686 881 478 900 291 770 318 2976 339 609 2537 587 425 536 671 2737 2898 699 443 2280 486 5625 1678 865 1546 284 451 519 974 134 538 683 390 332 693 718 387 527 1624 1104 848 1877 473 727 1913 729 464 422 2517 1254 1974 628 330 2714 508 1174 633 1354 2746 446 395 788 692 590 961 459 687 426 332 1315 2048 575 363 585 2509 2112 1390 1676 2076 551 733 568 493 544 574 978 244 611 626 1129 3076 1595 542 641 3372 462 697 2105 498 523 541 610 817 501 1169
2020-09-23 247 455 587 414 729 1396 919 1101 2183 2389 712 972 1012 708 496 1580 1288 10280 794 2544 1314 451 4362 527 1139 496 8042 563 553 2182 363 1049 1757 473 1825 667 403 612 1028 2333 1613 446 1006 424 778 843 426 1505 1128 868 517 824 2725 2516 601 344 385 880 821 402 514 1232 4330 2179 373 2207 682 713 797 351 1643 302 2395 758 1742 2106 575 516 319 509 1923 810 967 516 246 583 1650 629 409 530 321 361 540 196 609 1979 484 627 676 460 1222 668 1220 418 1095 515 1146 439 955 1672 316 827 427 1393 1005 698 585 1551 673 618 1573 1009 977 765 836 838 794 908 1722 933 4104 1715 1835 1048 6712 6785 1538 515 426 4687 1966 730 303 6398 488 1198 205 1139 708 1329 1104 592 538 2668 958 1845 719 289 468 321 875 1105 1412 411 394 2033 2194 400 1726 1049 703 3940 1148 1259 1784 884 640 2160 939 1701 885 479 903 295 774 319 3018 340 620 2553 596 428 540 672 2803 2938 704 444 2304 491 5667 1684 869 1568 285 453 522 979 135 541 685 391 333 694 720 389 531 1659 1109 851 1887 477 730 1958 733 466 425 2550 1262 1985 631 331 2749 510 1178 635 1357 2785 449 397 792 693 592 962 461 689 427 333 1327 2057 577 364 587 2525 2139 1399 1686 2106 554 736 569 495 548 575 987 247 612 630 1135 3121 1602 543 645 3450 464 699 2129 501 526 543 613 822 504 1178
2020-09-24 248 457 593 417 734 1397 921 1110 2194 2398 717 976 1013 710 499 1584 1292 10460 805 2582 1325 454 4440 528 1148 499 8076 564 555 2191 365 1055 1767 474 1831 670 406 617 1051 2365 1634 448 1011 425 779 844 429 1510 1136 870 518 827 2737 2532 604 346 387 886 823 403 518 1248 4365 2202 379 2215 684 716 801 353 1651 303 2416 761 1751 2116 577 518 321 511 1932 815 969 517 248 586 1661 633 411 534 322 363 541 197 614 2007 487 628 678 462 1228 671 1254 421 1101 519 1155 440 962 1680 317 832 428 1404 1008 705 589 1561 676 619 1584 1010 1023 767 842 842 798 909 1727 937 4155 1756 1844 1055 6804 6828 1545 519 430 4741 1974 731 305 6514 492 1201 207 1143 710 1338 1109 595 541 2725 961 1859 722 291 471 324 878 1111 1434 413 396 2042 2228 402 1741 1052 705 3994 1153 1283 1790 890 643 2207 941 1717 890 481 906 299 779 320 3064 341 631 2568 605 430 544 674 2840 2982 708 445 2343 496 5708 1690 873 1605 287 455 525 985 136 545 687 393 335 696 723 390 536 1694 1114 855 1896 481 732 1992 737 468 428 2588 1271 1995 633 333 2786 511 1181 637 1359 2816 452 398 795 693 595 963 463 692 429 334 1339 2066 580 366 589 2540 2166 1407 1696 2136 557 739 571 497 551 577 996 250 614 633 1142 3167 1609 545 649 3521 466 701 2152 503 529 545 617 828 507 1188
2020-09-25 250 459 600 419 738 1398 924 1118 2205 2407 721 980 1015 712 503 1590 1297 10640 816 2620 1337 457 4518 529 1157 502 8110 565 556 2201 367 1062 1776 476 1838 673 409 622 1074 2397 1654 450 1019 427 781 846 432 1516 1144 873 520 829 2750 2549 606 347 388 891 825 404 521 1265 4401 2226 385 2222 687 720 802 355 1659 305 2428 765 1760 2127 578 518 323 514 1942 819 971 518 249 589 1672 636 413 537 324 364 542 198 619 2035 489 629 680 465 1234 673 1288 424 1106 522 1163 441 968 1689 318 837 430 1414 1012 711 593 1570 679 620 1595 1012 1071 768 849 845 801 911 1731 941 4206 1799 1854 1062 6904 6871 1552 522 433 4796 1982 733 307 6633 496 1204 209 1147 711 1346 1114 599 544 2784 965 1873 725 293 474 327 880 1117 1456 415 397 2052 2262 404 1756 1056 706 4050 1158 1308 1796 895 646 2256 944 1732 895 482 908 303 783 321 3117 343 642 2584 613 433 548 676 2895 3019 713 446 2373 502 5750 1696 877 1637 289 457 528 990 136 548 689 394 336 698 725 391 541 1730 1121 858 1905 485 734 2010 741 470 431 2617 1279 2006 636 334 2822 513 1184 638 1362 2857 454 400 799 694 597 964 465 695 431 334 1351 2075 582 368 591 2556 2193 1416 1706 2166 560 742 573 500 555 578 1004 253 616 637 1148 3213 1616 546 653 3591 468 703 2176 506 533 547 621 833 509 1197
2020-09-26 252 460 606 421 743 1399 927 1127 2217 2416 726 983 1016 714 506 1597 1301 10820 827 2659 1348 459 4598 529 1166 506 8145 566 558 2210 369 1068 1785 477 1844 677 411 628 1098 2430 1676 451 1021 429 783 847 435 1521 1153 875 522 832 2760 2566 609 349 390 896 827 405 525 1282 4436 2249 391 2230 689 723 803 356 1667 306 2439 768 1769 2138 579 519 325 516 1951 824 973 519 250 592 1683 639 415 540 326 366 543 199 625 2063 492 630 682 467 1240 675 1323 427 1111 525 1172 442 975 1697 319 842 431 1425 1015 717 597 1579 682 621 1606 1014 1122 769 855 847 805 912 1735 945 4258 1842 1863 1069 6991 6914 1560 525 437 4852 1991 735 309 6753 500 1207 211 1151 713 1354 1119 603 547 2844 968 1886 728 295 476 329 882 1122 1478 417 398 2061 2298 406 1771 1060 708 4106 1162 1335 1802 901 650 2306 946 1747 900 484 911 307 788 322 3137 344 653 2600 622 435 552 678 2922 3057 717 447 2402 507 5791 1702 881 1655 290 460 531 995 137 551 691 396 338 699 728 392 546 1766 1123 861 1914 489 737 2045 745 473 434 2640 1288 2016 639 336 2859 514 1188 640 1364 2899 457 402 802 695 600 965 468 697 432 335 1363 2087 584 370 593 2571 2220 1424 1716 2196 563 745 575 502 558 580 1013 256 617 641 1155 3260 1624 547 657 3632 470 705 2199 508 536 549 624 838 512 1206

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-20 to 2020-09-26

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-19 240 448 559 405 711 1392 907 1067 2140 2351 694 956 1006 700 484 1561 1270 9578 751 2391 1269 439 4049 524 1103 483 7901 558 547 2145 356 1023 1719 467 1798 653 392 591 939 2209 1531 439 976 418 771 837 414 1483 1096 858 509 813 2693 2447 591 337 378 858 811 397 501 1167 4184 2086 349 2177 673 700 792 344 1609 298 2309 745 1707 2062 570 506 311 501 1885 792 958 513 242 572 1605 617 401 517 313 355 536 192 586 1865 473 624 669 451 1198 660 1083 405 1065 502 1112 435 929 1639 312 806 421 1349 991 674 568 1513 661 613 1530 1001 784 760 809 811 780 902 1704 917 3898 1554 1797 1019 6365 6609 1509 502 412 4478 1930 724 294 5952 472 1187 198 1122 700 1295 1085 576 525 2442 944 1790 706 282 457 309 866 1082 1325 402 388 1997 2054 391 1666 1032 696 3724 1129 1172 1761 861 626 1973 928 1640 866 473 891 279 756 314 2903 336 578 2489 562 417 524 665 2594 2806 685 439 2241 470 5500 1659 853 1437 279 445 509 958 132 527 677 386 328 688 712 384 512 1516 1097 837 1849 462 720 1757 716 457 413 2408 1226 1942 619 325 2605 503 1164 627 1344 2637 438 389 776 690 583 958 452 679 421 329 1279 2034 568 357 580 2460 2024 1364 1645 1984 542 724 562 485 534 569 951 235 606 615 1109 2935 1573 539 629 3168 456 690 2032 490 512 535 598 799 493 1140
2020-09-20 242 450 563 406 713 1393 910 1075 2141 2363 699 959 1007 702 486 1566 1275 9770 757 2423 1281 442 4126 525 1110 486 7970 559 548 2152 359 1027 1728 468 1804 656 395 595 960 2247 1550 441 979 422 772 838 416 1490 1105 860 510 815 2703 2465 592 338 379 867 814 399 504 1190 4220 2111 354 2182 675 704 793 345 1619 299 2322 748 1723 2069 571 507 313 502 1895 795 960 513 243 574 1616 620 402 521 315 356 537 193 593 1900 475 627 671 452 1203 661 1113 409 1069 506 1118 436 935 1644 313 815 423 1360 994 679 572 1522 664 614 1538 1003 809 761 816 813 783 903 1708 921 3949 1592 1800 1024 6446 6652 1516 506 415 4596 1941 725 296 6067 476 1189 199 1126 701 1305 1089 577 528 2511 947 1799 708 284 458 311 872 1086 1351 404 389 2005 2090 393 1682 1037 703 3770 1135 1194 1764 866 630 2009 930 1654 872 474 892 282 759 316 2932 338 593 2508 569 419 527 666 2637 2833 690 440 2277 475 5541 1667 857 1451 281 446 512 963 133 531 679 387 329 689 719 385 516 1552 1101 841 1856 465 726 1791 722 459 416 2434 1238 1951 622 327 2656 504 1167 628 1346 2670 441 390 780 690 584 959 455 682 423 330 1287 2048 570 358 581 2475 2050 1370 1648 2019 545 727 563 488 536 571 959 238 607 617 1114 2979 1578 540 635 3209 458 692 2048 494 515 538 602 806 496 1151
2020-09-21 244 452 568 409 717 1394 914 1085 2152 2372 703 963 1009 704 490 1571 1278 9950 768 2460 1293 445 4221 525 1119 490 8064 560 550 2162 360 1033 1737 470 1808 658 398 600 981 2287 1569 443 988 425 774 840 419 1495 1114 861 511 817 2721 2482 595 340 381 874 816 400 507 1203 4255 2134 360 2190 677 708 794 347 1629 300 2340 751 1738 2083 573 509 315 503 1904 799 962 514 244 577 1628 624 404 525 317 358 538 194 599 1931 478 630 673 454 1208 663 1141 413 1075 509 1127 437 942 1652 314 822 424 1369 998 685 577 1531 667 617 1549 1005 832 762 823 818 787 905 1710 925 3999 1630 1809 1028 6554 6700 1524 510 419 4714 1949 726 298 6174 480 1192 201 1130 703 1312 1094 579 531 2564 950 1813 712 286 462 314 877 1092 1374 407 390 2013 2119 395 1698 1041 710 3821 1140 1214 1767 872 633 2047 932 1672 876 476 894 285 763 317 2965 339 608 2524 577 422 532 668 2682 2859 695 442 2316 482 5584 1673 861 1472 282 449 515 968 134 535 681 389 330 691 726 386 520 1583 1104 845 1861 468 732 1829 726 462 420 2463 1247 1962 625 328 2703 506 1171 631 1348 2714 444 392 784 691 586 960 457 685 425 330 1298 2060 572 360 582 2491 2070 1378 1657 2054 548 730 565 491 539 573 968 242 608 621 1121 3019 1584 541 641 3275 460 694 2069 496 519 540 605 813 500 1162
2020-09-22 245 454 573 411 721 1395 917 1093 2162 2382 707 966 1010 706 493 1575 1281 10130 778 2493 1304 449 4314 526 1128 493 8148 561 551 2172 362 1038 1746 471 1812 661 402 605 1003 2330 1587 444 996 428 776 841 422 1501 1122 863 513 818 2732 2499 597 342 382 880 819 401 510 1215 4290 2155 365 2197 679 711 795 348 1638 301 2360 755 1752 2091 574 511 318 504 1913 803 964 514 245 579 1640 627 406 528 319 359 539 195 605 1961 480 632 675 456 1214 664 1169 416 1081 512 1136 438 949 1657 315 828 426 1380 1003 691 582 1541 671 620 1560 1007 854 763 829 823 790 907 1713 929 4051 1668 1819 1032 6659 6749 1531 513 424 4831 1957 728 300 6282 484 1194 203 1135 704 1320 1099 580 533 2620 954 1827 715 287 465 318 882 1099 1398 409 392 2021 2148 396 1713 1046 718 3870 1145 1224 1770 878 637 2086 935 1690 881 477 896 287 767 318 3001 340 626 2541 585 425 536 670 2733 2894 699 443 2355 489 5627 1680 865 1495 284 451 519 974 134 538 683 391 332 692 732 387 526 1615 1108 848 1865 471 739 1857 731 464 423 2491 1255 1973 628 329 2750 508 1174 633 1349 2759 447 394 788 692 589 960 459 687 426 331 1307 2073 574 361 584 2507 2090 1388 1665 2091 552 733 566 493 543 574 977 245 609 624 1128 3058 1591 541 646 3351 462 696 2089 499 522 542 608 821 503 1172
2020-09-23 247 456 578 413 725 1397 919 1102 2172 2391 711 970 1011 707 496 1581 1284 10320 787 2536 1316 452 4410 527 1138 496 8244 562 553 2182 364 1043 1754 472 1815 663 405 610 1026 2373 1606 446 1001 432 778 842 424 1506 1132 864 514 819 2748 2517 600 343 383 887 821 403 513 1227 4327 2177 371 2205 680 715 797 350 1648 302 2377 758 1767 2103 576 513 320 507 1921 808 966 515 246 582 1652 630 408 531 321 361 540 196 611 1993 483 635 676 458 1219 666 1197 420 1089 515 1145 439 955 1664 316 835 427 1390 1006 698 587 1551 674 623 1572 1009 877 764 836 829 794 909 1715 933 4116 1707 1828 1037 6772 6799 1539 517 428 4958 1965 730 302 6391 489 1198 205 1139 706 1328 1104 582 537 2676 957 1840 719 289 468 321 887 1104 1421 412 393 2030 2178 398 1729 1051 726 3923 1150 1241 1773 883 640 2124 937 1707 885 479 899 290 771 320 3048 341 645 2558 595 428 540 672 2790 2928 704 444 2397 496 5671 1686 868 1514 285 454 522 980 135 541 685 392 334 694 739 389 532 1647 1112 851 1870 474 746 1898 736 466 427 2518 1264 1983 632 331 2798 509 1178 634 1352 2804 450 396 792 693 591 961 461 689 428 332 1317 2087 576 363 586 2522 2110 1399 1673 2127 555 736 567 496 546 576 986 249 610 627 1134 3100 1597 542 652 3426 463 698 2109 502 525 544 611 829 506 1183
2020-09-24 249 458 583 415 730 1398 923 1115 2186 2401 716 974 1012 709 500 1586 1287 10500 798 2573 1328 455 4517 528 1147 500 8344 563 555 2193 366 1050 1763 474 1819 667 408 615 1047 2417 1627 448 1007 435 779 843 426 1511 1141 866 516 821 2764 2535 602 345 384 893 824 404 516 1241 4369 2200 377 2213 682 718 799 351 1658 303 2393 762 1782 2115 577 515 322 509 1929 813 967 516 247 584 1665 634 410 535 323 362 541 197 616 2026 485 638 678 459 1225 667 1225 424 1095 518 1155 441 963 1672 317 842 429 1404 1007 704 592 1560 677 627 1583 1011 901 765 843 834 798 910 1717 937 4175 1746 1839 1041 6886 6848 1547 520 433 5093 1974 732 305 6503 494 1200 207 1144 708 1337 1110 586 541 2733 960 1856 722 290 470 324 892 1109 1447 415 394 2039 2210 400 1745 1055 734 3974 1155 1254 1776 889 644 2157 939 1725 890 480 903 293 775 321 3098 342 659 2578 604 430 545 674 2840 2967 710 445 2441 503 5714 1692 872 1536 286 456 526 985 136 546 686 393 335 696 747 390 536 1679 1116 855 1874 478 753 1941 741 469 431 2546 1273 1992 635 332 2847 510 1181 636 1355 2849 453 398 796 693 593 961 463 693 430 332 1330 2100 579 365 587 2540 2130 1409 1687 2164 558 739 569 498 550 577 994 252 612 633 1141 3140 1603 543 658 3499 464 700 2130 505 529 546 614 837 509 1194
2020-09-25 251 459 587 417 735 1399 926 1126 2198 2410 720 977 1013 711 503 1592 1290 10720 807 2609 1339 459 4632 529 1156 503 8440 563 557 2202 367 1055 1773 475 1823 670 411 621 1070 2459 1645 450 1014 438 781 844 430 1517 1150 867 518 822 2779 2553 605 347 385 896 826 405 519 1254 4409 2224 383 2220 684 722 801 353 1668 304 2406 766 1796 2125 579 516 324 512 1938 817 970 518 248 586 1677 637 412 540 324 364 542 197 623 2056 487 640 679 461 1230 668 1253 428 1101 521 1165 442 970 1678 318 849 430 1418 1011 711 597 1570 681 630 1595 1013 925 765 850 841 801 911 1719 940 4231 1787 1850 1046 7000 6903 1555 524 437 5231 1982 733 307 6617 498 1204 209 1148 710 1345 1115 589 544 2792 964 1871 726 292 474 327 896 1114 1473 417 396 2047 2239 401 1763 1059 742 4028 1160 1266 1779 895 647 2195 942 1744 894 482 907 295 779 322 3153 343 670 2595 614 433 550 677 2897 3003 715 446 2483 511 5758 1698 876 1564 288 458 529 991 136 550 688 395 336 697 756 391 541 1712 1121 858 1879 481 760 1972 745 471 434 2575 1283 2000 638 334 2897 513 1185 638 1357 2896 455 400 800 694 595 962 465 696 432 333 1341 2112 581 366 588 2556 2150 1419 1703 2202 560 742 570 501 553 578 1001 256 613 637 1148 3179 1610 544 664 3574 466 703 2154 508 532 548 617 845 512 1205
2020-09-26 253 461 592 420 739 1400 928 1133 2206 2420 723 981 1014 713 505 1596 1293 10920 819 2641 1351 462 4728 529 1167 507 8518 564 559 2212 369 1061 1782 476 1827 672 414 626 1095 2499 1666 452 1019 442 782 845 432 1522 1159 869 521 823 2793 2570 607 349 386 901 828 406 523 1267 4444 2246 389 2227 685 725 803 355 1678 305 2418 771 1811 2138 580 517 326 513 1946 821 972 520 249 589 1690 640 414 543 326 366 544 198 627 2088 489 643 681 463 1235 669 1282 432 1109 524 1173 443 975 1683 319 856 431 1428 1014 718 602 1579 684 633 1606 1015 950 766 857 844 805 913 1721 944 4279 1827 1859 1049 7092 6949 1563 528 442 5363 1989 734 308 6734 503 1207 211 1153 711 1353 1120 592 545 2855 967 1888 729 294 477 330 901 1119 1498 420 397 2056 2267 403 1778 1063 750 4079 1165 1279 1783 901 650 2237 944 1762 899 483 910 298 783 324 3179 344 686 2611 624 435 554 678 2942 3035 720 447 2520 518 5803 1704 879 1590 289 460 532 996 137 553 690 396 338 699 763 392 546 1746 1124 862 1883 484 766 2025 750 473 438 2597 1291 2009 641 336 2948 514 1189 641 1360 2947 458 402 804 695 597 963 468 698 433 333 1349 2125 583 368 590 2572 2170 1430 1712 2241 563 745 572 503 557 580 1007 260 614 641 1154 3213 1616 545 670 3630 468 705 2175 510 536 550 620 853 515 1216

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    2020-10-13 Moved to a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.