COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-26

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-26

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1504-2108-3004-2904-0904-1604-1704-1009-1409-0104-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-30 --09-0909-1409-1004-1809-1404-0204-1904-04 --05-0304-2003-2603-2603-3008-2604-2609-0205-1109-0704-15 --09-15 --04-0803-2808-3104-0804-2103-2904-17 --04-1604-0303-3008-1209-1305-0605-0305-08 --04-1704-1105-03 --04-02 -- -- --04-2003-2704-0304-2103-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-13 --03-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-17 --04-1804-2805-1103-27 --09-1304-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-05 -- --04-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-23 --04-2504-1803-2607-0103-23 --03-2604-1304-1903-2405-03 --04-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1008-3004-07 -- --09-0103-26 --09-1304-1303-2503-25 -- -- --04-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-22 --04-2105-0503-30 -- --04-2908-3104-2004-1809-1504-2603-2504-1805-0404-22 --04-0804-1008-02 --04-20 --04-2209-06 --03-31 --04-2904-1404-14 --04-07 --04-2204-1004-05 --03-1904-21 --04-20 --05-14 --09-1204-1304-1404-0505-0704-21 -- --04-1804-22 --04-2003-26 --04-2004-23 --05-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-09 --04-26 --09-1504-1803-2708-1204-1403-29 --04-1504-1403-30 -- --04-2404-1003-30 --04-0604-0508-2907-26 --03-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0609-14 --05-1304-2703-25 -- --08-0303-24 --03-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-18 --09-1304-1904-1403-1709-1405-0304-1509-02 --04-1404-14 --04-1504-1604-1504-2004-2004-1309-14
Peak daily increment 5 8 10 18 12 22 13 6 20 14 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 10 45 15 6 98 8 20 8 11 9 52 7 13 11 13 7 20 12 9 60 6 19 9 15 25 6 19 16 12 12 5 32 9 13 7 23 8 7 4 11 49 9 14 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 33 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 15 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 11 13 4 47 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 33 6 21 10 12 30 6 2 9 28 43 13 24 9 11 23 29 20 16 16 16 18 23 8 16 12 32 59 6 37 8 24 4 5 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 18 12 8 17 16 4 12 7 10 6 18 15 19 10 5 68 7 13 9 21 33 18 12 22 14 9 17 15 11 7 4 11 6 7 14 2 3 21 7 8 8 21 18 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 8 49 17 15 7 8 12 18 7 7 27 14 9 9 28 12 16 7 7 7 11 13 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 26 10 15 9 5 32 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 4 11 14 19 86 37 10 12 8 15 12 10 10 6 16 10 16
Days since peak 164 158 27 150 170 163 162 169 12 25 156 182 161 183 135 177 161 180 17 12 16 161 12 177 160 175 146 159 184 184 180 31 153 24 138 19 164 11 171 182 26 171 158 181 162 163 176 180 45 13 143 146 141 162 168 146 177 159 183 176 158 179 185 187 161 163 160 136 183 156 154 162 164 167 158 158 163 163 157 163 156 186 180 185 185 162 161 151 138 183 13 163 160 164 180 138 182 174 164 159 184 185 159 185 156 154 161 184 87 187 184 166 160 186 146 162 158 195 189 146 169 27 172 25 184 13 166 185 185 152 188 180 125 181 187 145 185 183 156 157 158 144 180 150 26 159 161 11 153 185 161 145 157 171 169 55 159 157 20 179 150 165 165 172 157 169 174 191 158 159 135 14 166 165 174 142 158 161 157 159 184 159 156 123 187 164 178 162 185 151 150 186 157 183 140 153 11 161 183 45 165 181 164 165 180 155 169 180 173 174 28 62 189 172 164 137 167 157 177 166 162 185 168 162 173 12 136 152 185 54 186 186 176 166 161 55 139 172 161 13 160 165 193 12 146 164 24 165 165 164 163 164 159 159 166 12
Last total 248 482 623 432 772 1402 932 304 1211 2304 2476 755 1015 1032 728 536 1644 1341 11243 805 2651 1371 479 4684 531 1200 507 8810 579 564 2304 382 1065 1830 476 1870 694 436 652 1225 2594 1732 461 1052 447 807 885 440 1554 1186 886 546 830 2908 2669 618 354 401 949 834 420 526 1362 251 4695 2363 415 537 2275 711 796 821 361 1702 313 2474 776 757 1880 2228 224 298 588 545 332 514 2024 831 977 532 492 254 604 1736 674 415 552 391 369 542 848 203 668 2163 501 652 268 692 499 1289 695 1377 446 1136 541 1218 465 1014 1736 329 926 206 448 1478 1017 707 628 1680 707 632 1682 1037 950 770 460 901 851 801 918 1772 974 4369 2003 1909 1093 7501 6986 426 1582 524 468 5892 2075 747 173 317 7223 513 1234 258 216 1173 245 380 721 1448 1147 390 603 612 3225 1000 2003 160 752 331 483 346 944 241 1133 1602 424 423 2058 2530 413 1879 1095 743 4182 1205 1370 1822 926 685 2258 966 1877 949 515 907 334 813 349 3298 350 670 236 2721 625 449 576 685 139 179 3024 3176 736 456 2753 532 462 6081 1766 958 1620 506 303 470 546 1014 148 751 556 714 406 347 702 810 403 570 1822 1136 890 1976 493 768 2137 774 483 424 2684 1406 2052 645 347 3155 527 1211 644 1385 2987 453 409 259 834 712 604 312 968 485 718 439 349 74 1450 2312 591 394 602 2718 2243 1492 1755 2374 590 754 608 556 502 559 600 85 1092 262 619 630 1186 3419 1640 549 665 3736 494 735 2234 529 544 572 638 880 547 1266
Last daily increment 0 2 2 2 4 0 3 1 15 18 17 2 5 4 4 5 10 5 129 6 21 14 1 43 0 3 1 69 1 1 16 2 5 15 0 8 3 6 7 62 35 18 1 4 3 7 2 4 5 7 2 3 3 29 32 2 3 2 10 0 1 2 19 2 54 22 9 2 16 8 16 3 2 7 1 20 4 0 17 24 0 1 1 4 0 0 21 4 1 1 0 3 6 14 7 5 7 7 1 0 0 0 7 26 5 2 1 1 7 7 3 29 1 11 3 15 1 10 7 1 18 3 2 22 6 4 5 17 3 2 19 5 18 0 0 11 3 0 5 5 12 67 45 11 8 145 41 2 8 4 1 141 15 4 4 6 172 1 5 0 1 9 1 0 3 13 2 1 2 11 108 8 31 3 3 4 3 3 13 2 3 32 2 5 7 52 0 39 7 5 51 15 26 7 4 5 65 2 20 11 3 1 6 15 3 37 0 16 2 22 9 2 6 0 3 3 53 36 6 0 53 10 3 75 14 8 18 0 2 3 3 10 3 1 8 2 5 2 1 14 3 8 24 8 3 10 4 6 53 6 2 2 33 30 13 3 5 45 1 7 1 0 44 1 2 1 7 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 12 29 2 4 0 23 14 15 14 30 5 5 6 1 2 1 1 0 18 5 5 3 10 35 6 1 3 44 1 1 14 7 0 6 2 10 3 11
Last week 6 25 45 20 49 8 24 3 107 126 114 49 47 18 20 46 66 45 1335 45 201 84 30 509 6 71 22 720 18 9 125 18 36 90 6 60 34 37 45 249 311 153 18 48 25 33 43 19 54 65 25 27 13 176 188 21 16 19 70 17 20 17 176 5 427 218 57 24 76 32 85 24 13 67 7 123 28 6 141 136 4 6 15 26 15 11 120 30 17 13 9 11 27 103 43 10 27 63 10 4 11 8 76 232 24 19 9 12 41 74 31 248 35 65 32 73 21 73 73 14 94 10 21 110 22 26 51 130 41 18 123 25 144 6 6 81 30 17 12 61 44 396 365 91 71 916 308 10 60 17 46 1155 110 19 12 22 1074 34 37 7 16 43 4 6 19 140 46 7 20 68 661 50 171 9 39 40 21 31 61 6 41 232 19 29 43 414 14 186 48 36 354 58 174 48 42 47 245 36 165 72 36 10 48 52 31 328 6 77 9 181 45 23 39 14 11 16 360 290 39 15 447 45 15 465 90 86 151 8 20 18 28 45 13 10 24 33 16 14 12 86 15 51 225 31 44 105 26 39 337 47 17 10 215 150 88 21 15 441 21 40 15 30 296 10 15 10 52 17 13 10 9 26 35 9 16 3 141 240 19 32 16 214 176 105 92 318 39 27 35 11 17 15 23 4 123 20 11 11 62 396 52 9 33 447 28 38 174 35 26 29 26 68 45 99
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-10 -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- --04-16 --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-16 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-22 -- -- --03-25 --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-21
Previous peak daily increment 47 21 65 25 38 37 68 43 39 81 75 42 44 31 28 30
Low between peaks 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 14 2 1 1 1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-26 248 482 623 432 772 1402 932 1211 2304 2476 755 1015 1032 728 536 1644 1341 11243 805 2651 1371 479 4684 531 1200 507 8810 579 564 2304 382 1065 1830 476 1870 694 436 652 1225 2594 1732 461 1052 447 807 885 440 1554 1186 886 546 830 2908 2669 618 354 401 949 834 420 526 1362 4695 2363 415 537 2275 711 796 821 361 1702 313 2474 776 757 1880 2228 298 588 545 332 514 2024 831 977 532 492 254 604 1736 674 415 552 391 369 848 203 668 2163 501 652 268 692 499 1289 695 1377 446 1136 541 1218 465 1014 1736 329 926 206 448 1478 1017 707 628 1680 707 632 1682 1037 950 770 460 901 851 801 918 1772 974 4369 2003 1909 1093 7501 6986 426 1582 524 468 5892 2075 747 173 317 7223 513 1234 258 216 1173 380 721 1448 1147 390 603 612 3225 1000 2003 160 752 331 483 346 944 241 1133 1602 424 423 2058 2530 413 1879 1095 743 4182 1205 1370 1822 926 685 2258 966 1877 949 515 907 334 813 349 3298 350 670 236 2721 625 449 576 685 139 179 3024 3176 736 456 2753 532 462 6081 1766 958 1620 506 303 470 546 1014 148 751 556 714 406 347 702 810 403 570 1822 1136 890 1976 493 768 2137 774 483 424 2684 1406 2052 645 347 3155 527 1211 644 1385 2987 453 409 259 834 712 604 312 968 485 718 439 349 1450 2312 591 394 602 2718 2243 1492 1755 2374 590 754 608 556 502 559 600 1092 262 619 630 1186 3419 1640 549 665 3736 494 735 2234 529 544 572 638 880 547 1266
2020-09-27 250 485 629 435 778 1403 936 1227 2304 2489 757 1020 1034 731 541 1657 1347 11500 813 2651 1384 483 4770 532 1210 510 8913 581 565 2324 385 1071 1842 477 1878 698 436 658 1280 2642 1752 463 1061 451 811 891 443 1557 1195 889 547 833 2934 2695 621 356 403 956 837 422 529 1362 4745 2397 428 539 2285 715 809 821 363 1713 315 2503 780 758 1902 2228 299 590 549 334 516 2043 836 979 534 493 255 607 1751 676 417 556 399 371 848 204 677 2201 504 655 269 694 506 1297 698 1417 451 1136 545 1229 467 1023 1746 331 945 207 451 1478 1020 712 634 1696 712 635 1697 1040 968 771 461 911 856 804 920 1778 979 4436 2056 1920 1096 7643 7044 427 1591 528 486 6086 2091 749 176 320 7375 518 1239 259 218 1178 381 723 1467 1153 391 604 623 3326 1000 2043 161 757 337 486 350 952 241 1137 1633 427 426 2066 2596 415 1882 1101 750 4212 1218 1402 1829 933 691 2322 970 1900 959 520 909 342 819 353 3357 351 710 237 2721 633 453 582 687 140 183 3029 3223 742 458 2832 539 464 6166 1770 970 1665 507 305 472 550 1021 149 752 560 717 408 349 704 811 405 576 1862 1141 892 1990 497 775 2175 781 486 426 2716 1435 2065 648 349 3197 529 1216 646 1385 3020 456 411 260 840 714 606 313 969 488 722 441 351 1457 2312 594 397 604 2718 2274 1510 1756 2423 595 758 612 558 505 562 603 1094 266 620 633 1194 3481 1650 550 673 3801 497 740 2258 533 548 576 644 889 553 1279
2020-09-28 251 488 636 437 784 1405 939 1244 2327 2502 760 1026 1036 733 545 1667 1353 11770 822 2658 1397 487 4856 533 1221 514 9016 583 565 2343 387 1077 1854 479 1886 702 439 664 1340 2690 1772 465 1070 454 814 897 446 1560 1203 892 548 836 2971 2720 624 358 405 963 840 424 533 1386 4795 2431 439 541 2294 718 823 824 365 1725 316 2525 784 758 1924 2248 300 591 552 337 517 2062 840 982 535 494 256 611 1765 678 418 561 408 373 851 205 687 2240 507 658 270 696 512 1306 701 1458 455 1144 550 1240 469 1031 1756 332 963 209 453 1488 1023 716 640 1711 716 638 1712 1044 987 773 462 920 860 807 922 1784 984 4498 2109 1932 1099 7784 7101 429 1599 531 498 6281 2108 752 178 322 7528 523 1243 260 220 1184 382 726 1486 1159 392 606 632 3456 1004 2080 162 761 343 489 354 960 242 1149 1663 429 429 2074 2676 418 1917 1107 758 4243 1230 1444 1835 940 696 2376 973 1923 968 525 911 351 825 357 3421 353 727 238 2731 641 456 587 690 141 186 3059 3271 747 459 2914 546 465 6248 1774 982 1695 509 308 475 554 1027 151 753 564 720 410 351 705 823 406 582 1903 1145 894 2002 500 782 2231 787 488 429 2748 1464 2078 652 351 3240 531 1220 648 1392 3065 459 413 261 846 715 608 315 970 491 725 443 352 1464 2328 596 400 606 2733 2304 1527 1772 2463 600 761 615 559 507 565 605 1102 269 622 636 1202 3544 1659 552 680 3867 501 745 2282 537 552 579 649 898 560 1291
2020-09-29 253 491 642 440 790 1406 942 1260 2343 2515 763 1031 1039 736 550 1679 1358 12050 830 2673 1410 491 4942 534 1232 517 9120 584 566 2363 389 1084 1865 480 1894 706 446 670 1408 2738 1793 468 1080 458 817 903 449 1563 1211 895 549 838 3009 2746 627 360 407 970 843 426 536 1410 4845 2465 451 543 2304 721 835 828 367 1735 317 2539 788 759 1946 2271 300 593 555 339 519 2080 844 984 537 495 258 614 1780 680 420 565 416 374 852 206 697 2279 510 660 271 698 517 1314 704 1499 459 1153 554 1251 471 1040 1766 334 982 210 456 1505 1027 721 646 1725 720 641 1726 1047 1007 774 463 929 865 810 924 1790 990 4585 2162 1943 1102 7926 7157 430 1608 535 510 6476 2123 754 180 325 7684 527 1247 261 222 1189 383 728 1505 1165 393 607 642 3561 1011 2117 163 765 350 492 357 967 242 1157 1695 432 431 2082 2750 420 1940 1113 765 4275 1242 1472 1842 946 701 2432 977 1945 977 530 913 360 830 361 3483 354 746 239 2746 648 460 593 692 142 189 3100 3317 753 461 3004 553 467 6330 1778 994 1728 510 310 477 558 1034 152 753 568 724 412 353 707 835 408 587 1944 1150 896 2015 504 788 2293 793 491 431 2781 1492 2090 655 354 3283 533 1225 650 1394 3128 462 415 262 851 717 610 316 972 494 729 445 354 1471 2339 599 403 608 2744 2334 1543 1787 2521 604 765 618 561 510 568 608 1124 272 623 639 1210 3608 1669 553 687 3932 504 749 2305 541 556 583 655 907 567 1304
2020-09-30 254 494 648 442 796 1407 945 1276 2360 2527 766 1036 1041 738 554 1690 1364 12330 838 2690 1422 495 5029 535 1242 520 9224 586 567 2383 392 1090 1876 481 1901 710 449 676 1483 2787 1813 470 1088 462 821 908 452 1566 1219 898 550 841 3045 2771 630 362 409 976 845 428 539 1425 4895 2499 463 545 2313 724 848 833 368 1746 319 2564 791 759 1967 2289 301 594 558 342 521 2098 849 986 539 496 259 617 1793 682 422 569 424 376 854 207 707 2317 513 663 272 700 523 1322 707 1540 464 1162 558 1262 473 1048 1775 335 1000 211 458 1526 1030 725 651 1739 724 644 1740 1050 1026 775 464 938 870 813 925 1796 994 4661 2215 1954 1104 8068 7214 431 1616 538 522 6673 2139 756 183 327 7839 532 1251 262 224 1194 383 730 1524 1171 393 609 650 3693 1020 2153 164 770 356 495 361 974 242 1160 1728 434 434 2090 2843 422 1970 1118 772 4307 1254 1502 1848 953 706 2486 980 1967 986 535 916 368 836 365 3538 356 763 240 2760 656 463 598 694 143 192 3136 3364 758 462 3106 560 468 6411 1782 1006 1757 511 312 480 562 1040 153 754 571 727 413 354 709 850 409 592 1985 1154 899 2027 508 795 2357 799 494 434 2813 1521 2103 658 356 3325 535 1229 653 1398 3180 464 417 263 856 718 612 317 973 497 732 447 355 1477 2349 601 406 611 2763 2364 1559 1797 2579 608 768 621 562 512 571 610 1138 276 625 642 1217 3671 1678 554 695 3998 507 754 2328 544 560 587 660 915 573 1316
2020-10-01 256 497 654 445 802 1408 949 1292 2380 2539 768 1041 1043 741 559 1692 1370 12620 847 2715 1435 499 5116 536 1253 523 9330 587 567 2403 394 1096 1887 483 1909 714 452 682 1535 2835 1833 472 1096 465 824 914 455 1569 1227 901 552 844 3071 2796 633 364 411 982 848 430 542 1457 4945 2533 474 547 2322 727 861 836 370 1757 320 2584 795 760 1988 2302 302 596 561 344 522 2115 853 988 540 497 260 620 1807 683 424 573 433 378 856 209 717 2356 517 665 273 702 528 1329 710 1582 468 1172 562 1273 476 1056 1785 336 1018 213 461 1541 1033 730 657 1753 729 647 1754 1053 1046 777 464 946 874 817 927 1802 999 4747 2269 1965 1107 8213 7270 433 1624 542 534 6872 2155 758 185 330 7999 537 1255 263 226 1198 384 732 1543 1177 394 610 658 3802 1025 2188 165 774 362 499 365 981 243 1165 1760 437 436 2099 2936 424 2000 1124 780 4339 1266 1529 1854 960 711 2541 983 1989 995 540 918 377 841 369 3606 357 781 241 2785 663 467 603 696 144 195 3168 3412 764 464 3206 567 470 6494 1786 1018 1792 513 314 482 565 1046 155 755 575 730 415 356 710 864 411 597 2027 1158 901 2040 511 802 2425 806 496 436 2845 1549 2115 662 358 3369 537 1234 655 1402 3249 467 419 264 862 720 614 318 974 500 736 449 357 1484 2380 604 408 613 2786 2393 1575 1812 2626 613 772 624 564 515 574 613 1155 279 626 645 1225 3735 1688 555 702 4064 510 758 2351 548 564 590 665 923 580 1328
2020-10-02 258 499 661 447 808 1409 952 1309 2397 2551 771 1046 1045 743 563 1702 1375 12920 855 2718 1448 503 5205 537 1264 527 9437 589 568 2423 397 1102 1898 484 1916 718 453 688 1593 2884 1854 474 1104 469 827 920 458 1572 1235 904 553 847 3116 2821 636 366 413 988 851 432 545 1487 4996 2568 485 549 2331 730 874 838 372 1767 322 2599 799 760 2010 2326 303 598 564 347 524 2133 857 990 542 498 261 623 1821 685 425 577 441 379 856 210 727 2396 520 668 274 704 534 1337 713 1624 473 1181 566 1284 478 1064 1795 338 1037 214 463 1558 1036 734 663 1767 733 650 1767 1056 1067 778 465 955 879 820 929 1807 1004 4820 2323 1976 1110 8361 7327 434 1632 545 546 7074 2170 760 187 332 8161 542 1259 264 229 1203 385 734 1562 1183 395 612 667 3923 1036 2224 165 778 369 502 368 988 243 1170 1794 440 439 2107 3016 427 2032 1130 787 4372 1277 1552 1860 967 716 2598 987 2011 1004 545 920 386 846 372 3650 359 797 242 2801 671 470 609 698 144 198 3196 3460 769 466 3298 575 471 6578 1790 1030 1826 514 316 484 569 1052 156 755 579 733 416 358 712 879 412 601 2069 1163 903 2052 515 808 2487 812 499 439 2878 1579 2127 665 360 3412 539 1238 657 1409 3301 470 421 265 867 721 616 319 975 503 739 451 358 1491 2397 606 411 615 2800 2423 1592 1826 2673 617 775 627 565 517 577 615 1173 283 627 648 1233 3799 1697 556 709 4131 512 763 2375 552 568 594 670 932 586 1340
2020-10-03 259 502 667 450 814 1411 955 1325 2411 2563 774 1051 1047 746 567 1711 1381 13230 864 2742 1461 507 5294 538 1275 530 9546 591 569 2443 399 1108 1909 486 1924 722 457 694 1653 2934 1875 476 1108 473 830 926 462 1575 1244 907 554 849 3134 2847 639 368 415 994 854 434 549 1505 5047 2602 497 551 2340 733 888 841 374 1778 323 2618 803 761 2032 2344 303 599 568 349 526 2151 862 992 543 499 263 626 1835 687 427 581 449 381 856 211 737 2435 523 671 275 706 539 1345 716 1668 477 1190 570 1294 480 1072 1804 339 1057 215 466 1574 1039 739 669 1781 737 653 1781 1059 1088 779 466 964 883 823 931 1813 1009 4884 2378 1987 1113 8512 7384 435 1640 549 559 7279 2186 762 189 335 8327 546 1263 265 231 1208 386 737 1581 1190 396 613 675 4055 1041 2259 166 782 375 505 372 995 243 1175 1828 442 442 2116 3074 429 2064 1136 794 4405 1289 1582 1867 973 721 2656 990 2033 1014 550 922 396 852 376 3684 360 813 243 2824 679 474 614 701 145 201 3244 3508 775 467 3351 582 473 6663 1794 1042 1845 515 319 487 573 1059 157 756 583 736 418 360 713 892 414 606 2111 1167 905 2064 518 815 2544 818 501 441 2911 1609 2140 668 362 3457 541 1242 659 1410 3344 472 424 266 872 723 618 321 976 506 743 453 360 1498 2422 609 413 617 2818 2453 1608 1837 2710 622 779 630 567 520 580 618 1187 286 629 651 1241 3864 1707 558 716 4198 515 767 2398 555 572 597 676 940 593 1352

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-27 to 2020-10-03

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-26 248 482 623 432 772 1402 932 1211 2304 2476 755 1015 1032 728 536 1644 1341 11243 805 2651 1371 479 4684 531 1200 507 8810 579 564 2304 382 1065 1830 476 1870 694 436 652 1225 2594 1732 461 1052 447 807 885 440 1554 1186 886 546 830 2908 2669 618 354 401 949 834 420 526 1362 4695 2363 415 537 2275 711 796 821 361 1702 313 2474 776 757 1880 2228 298 588 545 332 514 2024 831 977 532 492 254 604 1736 674 415 552 391 369 848 203 668 2163 501 652 268 692 499 1289 695 1377 446 1136 541 1218 465 1014 1736 329 926 206 448 1478 1017 707 628 1680 707 632 1682 1037 950 770 460 901 851 801 918 1772 974 4369 2003 1909 1093 7501 6986 426 1582 524 468 5892 2075 747 173 317 7223 513 1234 258 216 1173 380 721 1448 1147 390 603 612 3225 1000 2003 160 752 331 483 346 944 241 1133 1602 424 423 2058 2530 413 1879 1095 743 4182 1205 1370 1822 926 685 2258 966 1877 949 515 907 334 813 349 3298 350 670 236 2721 625 449 576 685 139 179 3024 3176 736 456 2753 532 462 6081 1766 958 1620 506 303 470 546 1014 148 751 556 714 406 347 702 810 403 570 1822 1136 890 1976 493 768 2137 774 483 424 2684 1406 2052 645 347 3155 527 1211 644 1385 2987 453 409 259 834 712 604 312 968 485 718 439 349 1450 2312 591 394 602 2718 2243 1492 1755 2374 590 754 608 556 502 559 600 1092 262 619 630 1186 3419 1640 549 665 3736 494 735 2234 529 544 572 638 880 547 1266
2020-09-27 248 486 629 435 778 1403 935 1228 2319 2492 762 1020 1035 731 542 1655 1347 11440 812 2677 1386 484 4754 532 1209 510 8917 581 565 2323 384 1071 1842 477 1878 698 440 659 1268 2643 1755 463 1062 451 810 890 442 1562 1196 889 549 832 2935 2698 621 356 403 961 837 422 529 1386 4763 2395 424 540 2287 716 809 824 363 1713 314 2498 780 758 1902 2247 299 590 549 334 515 2041 836 979 534 493 256 608 1752 680 417 556 402 371 849 204 678 2200 504 654 269 694 505 1298 699 1416 450 1143 545 1231 468 1025 1745 331 942 208 451 1493 1020 711 634 1696 712 634 1700 1041 974 771 461 911 855 803 920 1779 982 4419 2061 1920 1100 7642 7020 427 1591 528 477 6085 2093 750 175 320 7410 517 1240 259 218 1180 381 724 1465 1152 391 605 629 3336 1007 2031 161 757 336 486 350 954 242 1137 1640 427 426 2064 2591 415 1904 1103 749 4242 1218 1398 1829 932 692 2299 970 1902 959 520 909 342 820 353 3346 351 687 237 2753 633 452 582 688 141 181 3074 3221 742 458 2820 540 464 6159 1778 970 1645 507 306 473 550 1022 150 752 560 717 409 349 703 821 405 576 1858 1141 896 1988 497 774 2180 781 486 426 2720 1435 2065 648 350 3219 529 1215 646 1389 3029 455 411 260 841 714 606 314 970 489 722 441 351 1466 2342 593 399 604 2742 2269 1508 1766 2421 596 758 612 558 505 561 603 1110 266 621 632 1194 3475 1647 550 669 3800 499 740 2255 533 547 576 642 890 553 1280
2020-09-28 250 489 636 437 784 1404 939 1244 2342 2505 767 1026 1037 734 548 1665 1353 11680 820 2713 1400 488 4845 533 1219 513 9041 583 567 2341 388 1076 1855 478 1886 702 445 665 1308 2700 1779 466 1070 454 813 896 446 1570 1207 891 553 833 2960 2726 623 358 405 971 840 425 533 1412 4833 2432 432 543 2296 719 820 826 364 1726 316 2521 783 758 1925 2266 300 592 552 336 516 2057 840 981 535 494 257 611 1766 686 418 560 410 372 851 205 690 2244 507 658 270 696 510 1306 701 1463 456 1150 549 1241 471 1035 1753 333 956 209 453 1504 1024 716 640 1712 716 636 1714 1044 999 772 462 921 860 806 921 1785 987 4473 2127 1936 1107 7773 7074 428 1599 531 482 6291 2109 753 177 323 7595 522 1247 260 220 1185 382 725 1485 1159 391 608 636 3455 1012 2055 162 762 342 488 353 962 242 1146 1682 430 429 2072 2656 417 1934 1109 756 4301 1226 1435 1836 939 697 2338 974 1927 968 524 911 349 825 357 3409 352 700 238 2774 641 455 588 690 142 183 3132 3267 748 459 2895 547 465 6229 1789 981 1670 508 308 475 555 1028 151 753 562 721 410 351 705 831 407 582 1905 1145 901 2002 499 781 2233 788 488 428 2755 1458 2076 652 352 3288 531 1221 648 1394 3075 458 413 260 848 716 608 315 970 492 726 444 352 1488 2369 596 402 605 2770 2301 1524 1779 2473 600 761 616 559 507 564 606 1121 269 622 633 1201 3533 1654 551 674 3883 502 745 2283 538 551 582 647 900 560 1294
2020-09-29 251 492 642 440 790 1405 943 1262 2357 2518 773 1031 1039 736 554 1675 1359 11920 828 2755 1414 494 4938 534 1231 516 9160 585 568 2360 391 1081 1867 479 1894 707 452 671 1349 2759 1802 468 1080 458 816 903 448 1578 1218 893 557 834 2984 2753 626 359 407 980 843 428 536 1438 4901 2470 441 545 2305 722 831 830 366 1738 317 2537 786 759 1947 2288 300 594 556 339 518 2072 844 983 536 495 258 614 1780 692 419 564 418 374 852 207 702 2288 509 661 271 698 514 1315 703 1509 461 1158 553 1252 475 1046 1762 334 969 210 455 1519 1026 720 647 1728 722 639 1728 1047 1024 773 462 931 864 809 923 1791 992 4548 2189 1949 1115 7909 7127 429 1608 535 488 6509 2124 755 178 325 7783 526 1251 261 222 1190 383 727 1505 1165 392 611 644 3575 1017 2077 163 766 348 492 356 970 242 1154 1722 433 432 2079 2720 420 1956 1115 762 4365 1234 1461 1842 947 703 2382 977 1953 977 528 912 357 830 361 3469 354 716 239 2803 650 459 593 692 142 185 3194 3318 754 461 2979 553 467 6300 1800 992 1697 509 310 477 559 1034 153 753 566 725 412 353 707 841 408 589 1952 1150 907 2015 502 788 2290 795 491 430 2793 1478 2088 655 354 3357 535 1226 650 1397 3132 461 415 261 853 718 610 316 971 495 731 446 353 1508 2394 599 404 608 2795 2333 1540 1792 2529 605 765 619 561 509 567 610 1143 273 623 635 1210 3598 1660 552 678 3966 505 750 2306 542 555 584 652 909 567 1308
2020-09-30 253 496 649 442 798 1406 946 1280 2372 2531 778 1037 1041 739 559 1686 1364 12170 836 2795 1429 497 5030 535 1241 519 9283 587 570 2379 394 1086 1878 481 1901 710 457 676 1392 2819 1826 470 1088 462 819 907 451 1586 1228 895 560 836 3010 2780 629 361 409 989 846 431 539 1462 4971 2508 451 547 2314 724 841 834 367 1750 318 2562 789 759 1970 2308 301 596 559 342 520 2087 848 985 537 496 260 617 1794 698 420 568 426 376 854 208 714 2332 512 664 272 701 518 1323 705 1556 466 1166 558 1262 477 1054 1772 336 983 211 458 1538 1029 725 654 1745 726 641 1742 1051 1050 774 463 941 869 812 925 1796 997 4621 2257 1959 1123 8045 7178 430 1616 538 495 6736 2139 758 179 328 7975 531 1255 262 224 1194 383 729 1523 1172 393 614 654 3702 1022 2099 164 770 353 495 360 978 243 1158 1765 436 434 2087 2790 422 1983 1121 770 4430 1242 1492 1846 955 709 2424 981 1978 987 533 914 365 834 365 3527 355 733 240 2830 659 462 599 694 144 187 3257 3365 761 462 3071 560 468 6370 1811 1003 1722 510 312 480 563 1040 154 754 570 729 413 354 708 853 409 596 2001 1155 913 2028 504 795 2351 802 494 432 2829 1504 2099 659 356 3428 537 1230 652 1401 3183 463 417 264 859 720 612 318 972 498 734 448 355 1524 2419 601 407 609 2827 2365 1555 1803 2586 609 768 622 562 512 569 612 1161 277 624 637 1218 3672 1667 553 683 4047 507 754 2326 547 559 587 656 919 574 1322
2020-10-01 255 499 656 445 804 1408 950 1297 2389 2543 783 1042 1043 741 563 1693 1370 12430 845 2838 1443 503 5126 536 1253 522 9414 588 571 2398 397 1092 1888 482 1909 713 462 682 1433 2879 1851 472 1095 465 822 912 454 1594 1238 897 564 837 3029 2806 632 362 410 999 848 433 542 1491 5034 2546 461 549 2323 727 852 837 369 1763 320 2584 792 760 1993 2320 302 598 562 344 522 2102 852 987 539 498 261 620 1808 704 422 572 434 377 855 209 725 2378 514 667 273 703 523 1331 707 1605 472 1175 562 1273 479 1062 1780 337 995 212 460 1552 1031 729 660 1761 731 644 1756 1054 1077 774 464 951 873 814 927 1800 1002 4693 2323 1969 1130 8183 7229 431 1625 542 500 6974 2155 759 180 330 8172 536 1259 264 226 1199 384 730 1540 1179 394 617 662 3830 1027 2122 165 775 359 498 363 986 243 1163 1805 439 437 2094 2863 425 2007 1128 777 4497 1251 1518 1851 962 715 2461 984 2004 996 537 916 372 839 369 3589 357 752 240 2864 668 465 604 697 144 188 3317 3415 765 463 3152 567 470 6437 1823 1014 1752 512 315 483 567 1046 155 755 574 733 415 356 710 863 411 602 2050 1160 919 2038 507 802 2418 809 496 435 2868 1524 2110 662 358 3501 539 1235 655 1404 3237 466 420 264 865 721 613 319 972 501 738 450 356 1539 2449 604 410 611 2854 2398 1571 1816 2642 613 771 625 564 514 572 615 1178 280 625 641 1226 3738 1673 554 688 4135 510 759 2350 551 563 590 661 928 581 1337
2020-10-02 256 502 662 448 808 1409 954 1314 2401 2556 788 1047 1045 744 568 1701 1375 12690 853 2878 1458 506 5222 537 1264 526 9539 589 573 2415 401 1097 1900 483 1917 716 467 688 1476 2941 1874 474 1102 469 824 916 457 1602 1252 899 567 839 3056 2834 634 364 412 1006 851 436 545 1519 5096 2585 469 551 2332 730 863 839 371 1775 321 2603 796 761 2016 2336 303 599 565 347 525 2117 856 989 540 498 262 623 1822 710 423 578 443 379 856 210 738 2424 517 670 274 705 527 1339 709 1654 477 1182 566 1283 482 1070 1787 339 1009 213 462 1567 1033 734 667 1777 736 647 1770 1057 1104 775 465 962 878 817 929 1805 1007 4768 2396 1979 1138 8324 7286 431 1633 546 508 7206 2171 761 182 332 8375 541 1264 265 229 1204 385 732 1558 1186 395 620 669 3964 1033 2146 165 779 364 500 367 993 243 1168 1850 442 439 2102 2934 427 2031 1135 784 4564 1259 1535 1856 970 721 2500 988 2030 1005 541 919 380 844 373 3648 358 765 241 2890 677 469 609 699 145 190 3380 3459 769 465 3235 574 471 6510 1834 1025 1780 513 317 485 572 1052 157 756 577 737 416 358 711 872 413 608 2101 1164 925 2049 509 809 2475 816 499 437 2906 1547 2121 666 360 3576 542 1239 657 1408 3291 469 421 265 871 723 615 320 973 504 742 452 358 1553 2475 606 413 613 2879 2431 1587 1829 2699 617 775 628 565 516 575 617 1191 284 626 643 1235 3800 1679 554 693 4224 512 763 2372 556 567 592 666 938 588 1350
2020-10-03 259 506 669 450 812 1410 957 1331 2409 2569 793 1053 1047 746 571 1712 1380 12970 862 2923 1473 510 5324 538 1274 529 9654 590 574 2434 404 1101 1911 484 1924 718 473 694 1521 3005 1900 476 1108 473 827 919 460 1610 1263 901 571 840 3076 2861 637 365 413 1017 854 438 549 1543 5157 2624 478 552 2340 733 874 841 372 1787 323 2621 799 761 2039 2349 303 600 568 349 526 2131 860 991 541 499 263 626 1837 716 425 582 451 381 856 211 749 2472 519 673 276 708 531 1346 710 1704 483 1189 570 1293 485 1077 1793 340 1023 215 464 1579 1036 738 674 1793 740 648 1784 1060 1132 776 466 972 881 820 931 1810 1012 4836 2464 1988 1142 8457 7344 432 1642 549 513 7442 2185 763 183 334 8583 545 1269 266 231 1209 386 734 1576 1193 395 623 677 4105 1038 2168 166 783 369 503 370 1001 244 1174 1894 445 442 2109 3000 430 2051 1140 791 4638 1267 1563 1860 978 726 2555 991 2056 1015 546 921 387 848 377 3696 360 787 242 2918 687 472 614 701 146 191 3448 3510 775 466 3302 581 473 6582 1846 1036 1807 514 320 487 575 1058 158 756 582 741 418 360 713 882 414 613 2152 1169 931 2059 511 816 2536 823 502 439 2946 1565 2131 670 363 3653 543 1244 658 1411 3343 471 424 265 876 725 617 321 974 507 745 454 358 1565 2502 608 415 614 2901 2465 1601 1838 2756 622 778 631 566 519 577 621 1203 288 627 646 1242 3860 1685 555 697 4306 514 767 2391 560 571 596 671 948 595 1365

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    2020-10-13 Moved to a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.