COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-03

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	04-29	--	04-14	04-17	04-10	09-22	--	--	03-28	09-21	03-27	05-14	--	04-18	03-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-02	--	04-04	--	05-03	04-20	03-26	--	--	--	04-26	09-22	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	--	04-16	04-03	03-30	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	04-17	04-10	05-03	09-16	--	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	09-22	--	03-30	--	--	04-18	--	--	05-13	--	--	04-23	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	--	--	03-25	03-24	--	09-22	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	--	--	--	04-19	04-15	03-30	--	03-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	04-18	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	04-19	--	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	--	03-21	05-03	04-10	--	04-07	--	--	08-27	--	--	09-14	04-12	03-25	--	--	--	04-03	04-27	03-22	--	--	05-24	03-29	--	--	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	--	04-21	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-29	04-14	--	--	04-07	--	--	04-10	04-05	--	--	09-22	--	04-20	--	05-14	--	--	04-13	--	04-05	--	--	--	--	04-18	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-20	--	--	--	--	--	04-28	--	--	04-22	--	05-09	--	--	--	--	04-18	03-27	09-22	04-14	--	--	--	--	03-30	--	--	08-09	--	03-30	--	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	--	03-21	04-07	--	--	04-14	04-18	04-02	04-13	--	03-25	04-11	09-21	04-06	--	--	05-13	--	--	--	--	--	09-22	--	--	03-26	04-13	04-18	--	05-10	04-07	04-18	--	--	04-19	04-14	--	--	05-03	04-15	--	--	--	04-14	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	09-22	--
Peak daily increment	5			18		22	13	6	25			27	17	24	24		17	29							8		8		11	9	52				12	29	20									15	25	6	19		16	12	12				14			23	7	7	33					11	49	14		18			9			11			4		15					12	18	15	10	6			14	8		98	6	11	13	4				14	7	10		25							10						9		43					11		29		20	16		16	18	23		16			12			57	6	37				23	24	4			17	24			24	10	10	13		18	12												15	19		10		68									33	18			22			9	17			13		7		4			6		14					21	7								17						25			18		19					17	15	28	8					7			9		9		9	28	10	16		7	7			14	10	6	21		11	6	22	6			10						37			12	12	8		8	11	2			11	14			37	10				15			10				11
Days since peak	171			157		172	169	176	11			189	12	190	142		168	187							184		182		153	166	191				160	11	145									178	165	188	169		170	183	187				153			169	176	153	17					166	190	11		187			168			143			163		169					170	170	164	170	163			192	193		11	168	158	145	190				167	171	187		189							192						168		94					167		153		169	165		196	153	176		179			37			19	174	192				183	159	195			132	188			192	190	163	164		165	151												152	164		178		62									157	172			179			176	181			11		166		142			173		181					168	164								13						158			164		147					168	190	11	172					187			55		187		180	181	35	69		196	179			172	168	184	173		192	175	12	180			143						11			191	173	168		146	179	168			167	172			153	171				172			170				11
Last total	265	556	725	482	904	1433	995	329	1347	2603	2856	883	1118	1071	833	651	1753	1469	13125	906	3037	1628	537	5531	554	1413	544	10407	627	598	2542	442	1207	2073	509	2026	794	481	833	1629	3176	2070	512	1193	506	864	937	482	1641	1381	961	597	894	3414	3129	691	391	454	1134	888	461	557	1524	280	5697	2753	514	571	2523	799	991	858	412	1906	350	2887	863	776	2125	2507	245	345	631	650	375	583	2377	895	1054	569	522	271	719	1960	766	453	664	768	385	581	867	234	783	2653	642	703	283	740	589	1440	782	1836	554	1260	608	1438	492	1211	1941	367	1161	239	482	1646	1055	805	745	1890	790	692	1881	1121	1196	803	482	1073	943	853	960	2024	1081	5208	2895	2136	1337	10435	7499	454	1782	609	557	8761	2197	786	182	358	10580	585	1312	296	253	1254	263	406	769	1786	1255	429	658	759	4693	1138	2260	184	870	431	537	413	1092	255	1211	2086	461	477	2175	3149	470	3381	1192	827	4838	1371	1681	1943	1018	789	2722	1031	2205	1157	557	953	482	1002	423	4050	369	849	253	3243	719	498	779	735	164	232	3857	3575	842	484	3763	615	518	8072	1973	1087	1865	575	348	550	617	1157	164	781	651	825	452	379	760	1024	441	668	2281	1238	955	2175	549	871	2776	924	539	444	3332	1835	2218	732	379	4000	571	1276	696	1437	3538	494	457	308	945	750	652	342	997	541	783	482	404	87	1731	2920	640	458	669	3258	2598	1690	1961	2894	673	820	676	605	542	608	664	97	1398	355	655	691	1327	4271	1790	609	766	4564	555	807	2443	603	569	657	715	1031	603	1635
Last daily increment	0	11	9	4	18	6	8	2	16	15	45	14	7	5	17	10	5	4	182	16	53	24	4	77	2	28	2	188	6	1	6	8	7	14	0	8	15	4	24	54	58	43	4	14	11	2	5	1	3	19	4	4	6	59	53	7	2	6	23	8	5	2	4	4	121	43	8	7	13	7	21	0	2	17	4	56	6	1	21	14	2	2	2	10	5	7	48	5	5	1	5	1	10	17	6	3	17	21	2	2	0	1	8	61	11	0	2	8	1	9	5	55	11	3	7	10	1	24	8	2	25	2	2	18	9	12	6	8	9	11	7	4	25	6	2	10	5	5	5	21	7	107	101	9	23	331	46	0	16	11	13	261	5	3	0	2	291	12	5	2	3	6	0	3	6	29	9	4	4	20	185	20	16	3	21	12	6	13	21	2	6	66	3	7	15	64	6	198	15	9	60	12	32	10	4	13	60	7	29	26	2	1	11	7	5	80	0	14	1	73	12	3	33	1	6	9	89	32	6	3	92	8	4	212	12	4	22	7	4	6	7	4	1	1	20	14	5	2	9	17	3	11	47	5	4	6	5	9	79	11	4	4	80	80	8	10	1	91	0	2	6	4	67	7	3	6	13	10	3	4	2	5	4	7	3	1	22	71	8	6	5	59	41	20	7	68	16	2	6	5	1	2	2	2	44	7	2	2	3	102	8	4	6	69	3	5	23	9	0	5	7	18	4	41
Last week	13	56	79	37	116	25	56	21	107	255	300	105	92	35	86	89	91	102	1503	85	311	212	43	634	18	183	28	1311	32	29	195	51	114	203	29	126	91	36	155	319	476	285	40	116	50	48	44	31	73	163	64	44	52	446	381	62	29	40	155	44	34	21	112	24	838	329	75	28	199	75	169	24	42	161	33	336	71	17	201	222	17	36	34	90	38	63	302	54	69	34	25	16	107	185	65	34	92	367	10	33	14	24	91	392	119	46	12	37	68	118	81	361	89	102	56	181	16	160	172	32	184	30	26	130	35	90	101	163	67	50	159	69	194	27	12	147	82	47	39	220	87	706	734	184	204	2475	420	22	155	73	73	2299	98	29	6	36	2705	63	64	34	29	70	14	24	38	283	87	36	40	122	1222	122	192	21	105	83	49	57	126	12	58	389	29	39	102	483	51	1371	82	67	545	129	247	97	73	80	388	52	262	182	37	31	121	158	60	625	15	140	10	430	80	40	183	41	19	49	678	317	93	22	817	66	52	1739	160	92	199	62	35	65	59	121	12	26	80	93	33	28	53	182	33	84	346	85	52	156	47	79	514	126	49	15	536	379	127	75	24	681	32	54	45	40	447	37	38	44	84	38	45	26	24	47	57	33	51	9	218	504	44	51	57	450	292	168	168	418	68	51	59	38	35	41	50	11	258	87	30	54	127	718	125	48	86	645	52	60	162	60	18	70	61	116	48	315
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-24	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95		20							65								38																		40											73																																																																															39		81	75																																																																																																			43									27								30
Low between peaks																																				1																																																																																																												0			16																																																																																																			1									1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-10

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-03	265	556	725	482	904	1433	995	329	1347	2603	2856	883	1118	1071	833	651	1753	1469	13125	906	3037	1628	537	5531	554	1413	544	10407	627	598	2542	442	1207	2073	509	2026	794	481	833	1629	3176	2070	512	1193	506	864	937	482	1641	1381	961	597	894	3414	3129	691	391	454	1134	888	461	557	1524	280	5697	2753	514	571	2523	799	991	858	412	1906	350	2887	863	776	2125	2507	245	345	631	650	375	583	2377	895	1054	569	522	271	719	1960	766	453	664	768	385	581	867	234	783	2653	642	703	283	740	589	1440	782	1836	554	1260	608	1438	492	1211	1941	367	1161	239	482	1646	1055	805	745	1890	790	692	1881	1121	1196	803	482	1073	943	853	960	2024	1081	5208	2895	2136	1337	10435	7499	454	1782	609	557	8761	2197	786	182	358	10580	585	1312	296	253	1254	263	406	769	1786	1255	429	658	759	4693	1138	2260	184	870	431	537	413	1092	255	1211	2086	461	477	2175	3149	470	3381	1192	827	4838	1371	1681	1943	1018	789	2722	1031	2205	1157	557	953	482	1002	423	4050	369	849	253	3243	719	498	779	735	164	232	3857	3575	842	484	3763	615	518	8072	1973	1087	1865	575	348	550	617	1157	164	781	651	825	452	379	760	1024	441	668	2281	1238	955	2175	549	871	2776	924	539	444	3332	1835	2218	732	379	4000	571	1276	696	1437	3538	494	457	308	945	750	652	342	997	541	783	482	404	87	1731	2920	640	458	669	3258	2598	1690	1961	2894	673	820	676	605	542	608	664	97	1398	355	655	691	1327	4271	1790	609	766	4564	555	807	2443	603	569	657	715	1031	603	1635
2020-10-04	267	571	735	486	914	1436	1004	332	1356	2626	2906	899	1133	1075	847	651	1753	1479	13360	917	3086	1656	537	5612	556	1442	548	10640	635	601	2554	450	1232	2106	510	2045	807	481	868	1709	3256	2108	512	1209	513	866	944	486	1647	1394	969	602	901	3436	3186	695	395	460	1136	893	462	560	1545	284	5855	2811	519	574	2549	810	1018	861	416	1929	353	2922	873	777	2143	2586	248	346	636	650	378	591	2418	901	1065	572	530	273	731	1995	776	456	673	793	387	585	867	236	788	2678	657	708	285	744	615	1456	782	1902	562	1291	618	1493	495	1220	1992	367	1177	243	486	1667	1059	819	759	1911	790	697	1912	1130	1242	807	484	1073	960	855	966	2048	1094	5244	2895	2164	1337	10650	7558	455	1805	617	576	8940	2205	789	183	362	11100	592	1316	299	256	1263	264	410	774	1833	1259	434	664	790	4936	1145	2338	188	889	442	545	424	1110	256	1211	2163	465	477	2186	3149	474	3492	1206	836	4838	1391	1718	1954	1027	801	2782	1037	2236	1175	566	957	490	1007	432	4050	371	868	254	3298	725	503	784	740	171	235	3857	3619	855	487	3900	626	525	8262	1981	1104	1905	582	351	560	619	1181	166	783	655	840	460	380	768	1033	446	671	2333	1252	958	2175	554	881	2828	930	546	446	3413	1903	2226	746	382	4088	573	1282	700	1437	3597	498	461	314	970	758	658	343	1001	543	786	486	409	88	1755	2994	650	466	675	3295	2630	1712	1980	2958	684	822	683	609	549	612	666	98	1458	374	659	693	1338	4327	1809	616	792	4564	557	818	2454	606	573	680	719	1047	606	1673
2020-10-05	269	585	744	490	933	1438	1013	335	1365	2656	2954	916	1147	1079	860	658	1757	1489	13590	927	3134	1684	539	5695	558	1471	552	10870	642	604	2568	458	1253	2152	512	2064	820	485	900	1785	3343	2145	516	1230	520	868	951	490	1654	1405	977	607	909	3506	3244	699	398	465	1152	898	464	564	1566	287	6005	2869	524	578	2575	822	1056	866	419	1953	356	2976	883	778	2162	2663	251	347	640	659	380	598	2476	908	1077	575	536	275	742	2029	786	460	685	820	389	590	869	239	794	2723	672	713	286	749	630	1472	788	1968	571	1316	628	1534	499	1238	2031	367	1195	246	489	1688	1063	833	773	1939	797	702	1942	1140	1280	811	485	1100	974	857	971	2072	1106	5348	2996	2192	1357	11040	7616	456	1828	624	594	9200	2213	793	185	365	11520	598	1319	302	259	1272	264	413	779	1895	1263	438	670	818	5187	1165	2382	191	907	453	552	434	1128	258	1220	2240	469	480	2197	3188	478	3751	1222	844	4863	1411	1754	1964	1037	809	2842	1043	2283	1206	573	960	499	1021	442	4103	373	889	256	3366	736	508	819	745	177	239	3909	3662	868	489	4043	635	533	8458	1989	1121	1944	589	354	570	622	1206	168	785	666	854	466	383	776	1040	451	680	2384	1265	960	2187	559	890	2913	936	554	448	3495	1975	2235	760	385	4178	575	1289	704	1443	3656	501	465	320	991	764	665	344	1004	546	788	489	414	89	1778	3064	659	473	681	3364	2663	1733	2000	3022	697	825	688	612	555	616	669	99	1503	393	664	695	1349	4418	1827	624	813	4637	560	828	2479	609	577	703	723	1063	609	1711
2020-10-06	271	599	754	494	950	1441	1021	337	1375	2688	3003	932	1162	1082	873	665	1763	1499	13820	937	3183	1713	541	5779	559	1502	556	11110	649	606	2581	466	1273	2194	513	2084	833	491	934	1862	3433	2184	516	1247	528	871	958	494	1660	1418	985	612	916	3572	3302	704	401	471	1168	902	466	567	1586	290	6172	2928	530	581	2602	834	1081	870	423	1976	359	3029	893	780	2181	2738	253	348	645	673	383	605	2531	914	1087	577	542	276	754	2064	796	463	698	846	390	595	871	241	799	2784	687	717	287	752	646	1489	798	2035	579	1338	638	1574	502	1261	2069	369	1213	250	493	1708	1066	847	787	1967	806	707	1972	1150	1319	815	487	1119	989	859	977	2096	1118	5455	3065	2220	1365	11430	7673	457	1852	632	612	9450	2221	796	186	368	12000	605	1322	305	263	1281	265	416	783	1941	1268	443	676	845	5447	1178	2416	195	925	464	560	445	1145	259	1228	2320	472	481	2208	3212	482	3965	1234	852	4909	1431	1790	1974	1045	822	2903	1048	2335	1234	579	964	507	1039	451	4171	375	918	257	3416	748	513	846	750	183	242	3971	3705	880	491	4191	645	540	8653	1997	1137	1985	596	357	580	625	1230	169	787	678	869	472	385	784	1049	456	694	2435	1276	963	2191	564	900	3001	942	561	451	3578	2061	2243	773	388	4272	577	1295	708	1446	3717	505	468	326	1007	771	671	346	1007	548	791	493	419	90	1802	3135	667	480	687	3423	2696	1754	2019	3087	709	827	695	615	560	620	671	99	1559	412	667	697	1361	4525	1846	631	840	4709	562	838	2496	612	580	723	728	1079	612	1751
2020-10-07	272	613	762	498	968	1443	1028	340	1384	2724	3052	948	1177	1086	886	673	1776	1509	14060	947	3231	1741	545	5863	561	1531	559	11340	656	609	2594	476	1294	2238	514	2103	845	496	967	1941	3525	2223	521	1267	534	873	964	499	1667	1429	993	616	923	3643	3360	708	405	476	1191	907	467	570	1606	294	6326	2987	534	584	2628	845	1098	877	426	2000	362	3079	902	781	2200	2787	256	349	649	684	385	611	2586	920	1098	580	548	278	764	2099	807	466	718	873	392	599	874	243	803	2841	701	722	289	756	655	1505	803	2104	588	1366	646	1619	505	1279	2101	371	1231	253	497	1728	1070	860	801	1999	810	712	2002	1159	1358	819	489	1159	1003	861	982	2119	1130	5572	3170	2248	1386	11860	7729	458	1875	638	630	9740	2229	799	187	372	12520	611	1325	308	266	1289	265	420	788	1978	1272	447	682	871	5718	1203	2437	198	944	475	567	457	1163	261	1237	2401	476	486	2218	3250	486	4213	1252	860	4975	1451	1826	1983	1054	832	2965	1054	2397	1259	585	967	515	1054	460	4239	377	944	259	3496	760	517	876	755	190	246	4037	3749	893	494	4343	655	547	8847	2005	1153	2022	603	360	590	628	1254	171	789	689	883	478	388	792	1057	461	706	2485	1292	966	2205	568	909	3094	948	569	453	3661	2140	2252	787	391	4366	578	1301	711	1454	3778	508	472	332	1016	777	677	347	1011	551	794	496	424	90	1825	3205	676	487	692	3487	2728	1775	2039	3152	720	829	700	618	566	624	674	100	1605	431	671	699	1373	4636	1864	638	861	4778	565	848	2513	615	584	740	732	1095	614	1791
2020-10-08	274	628	771	502	977	1445	1036	342	1394	2774	3102	964	1191	1089	898	681	1784	1519	14290	957	3280	1769	552	5949	563	1562	563	11590	663	612	2607	486	1319	2295	516	2123	857	498	1002	2023	3623	2262	524	1279	541	875	971	503	1673	1441	1001	621	930	3701	3419	712	408	482	1216	911	469	574	1627	297	6501	3047	539	587	2655	857	1126	879	429	2024	364	3144	912	782	2219	2857	258	350	654	697	387	618	2636	925	1110	583	553	280	775	2135	817	469	726	901	394	604	877	245	808	2894	716	726	290	760	668	1521	812	2175	597	1395	655	1655	508	1291	2147	372	1249	257	500	1749	1073	874	816	2050	815	716	2032	1169	1398	823	490	1178	1016	863	988	2143	1143	5725	3284	2277	1411	12410	7784	459	1898	645	649	10060	2237	802	189	375	13000	616	1328	311	269	1297	266	423	793	2042	1276	450	688	898	6003	1215	2478	201	962	487	574	469	1181	262	1248	2485	479	489	2228	3285	489	4521	1269	868	5051	1471	1862	1993	1063	848	3028	1059	2451	1287	591	970	523	1078	469	4332	378	971	260	3576	774	522	917	759	196	249	4135	3792	906	496	4501	664	554	9046	2012	1170	2067	610	363	600	631	1279	173	791	709	898	484	393	800	1064	466	719	2536	1308	969	2220	573	918	3189	953	576	455	3746	2213	2260	800	394	4463	580	1307	715	1462	3840	512	475	338	1034	783	682	348	1014	554	796	499	429	91	1848	3276	684	494	698	3555	2761	1795	2059	3218	724	832	705	621	571	628	677	101	1653	452	675	701	1384	4747	1883	645	887	4866	567	858	2534	618	588	763	737	1112	617	1832
2020-10-09	276	643	780	506	989	1447	1044	345	1404	2804	3152	981	1206	1092	911	693	1794	1529	14530	966	3330	1798	557	6035	564	1593	566	11830	669	614	2621	496	1343	2353	517	2142	870	504	1038	2109	3704	2302	528	1294	548	877	978	507	1679	1452	1008	626	938	3773	3480	716	411	487	1236	915	470	577	1647	301	6660	3109	544	589	2682	868	1138	882	433	2048	367	3202	922	783	2238	2916	260	351	658	709	390	624	2675	931	1121	585	559	281	785	2172	827	472	738	930	396	608	879	247	813	2947	730	731	292	763	675	1537	821	2249	606	1417	664	1683	511	1307	2183	380	1268	261	503	1769	1077	887	830	2081	827	721	2063	1178	1440	827	492	1199	1026	865	993	2166	1155	5846	3386	2305	1433	12840	7840	460	1922	651	668	10350	2246	805	190	378	13460	622	1331	314	272	1306	267	426	798	2100	1280	454	694	924	6303	1239	2510	205	981	499	581	481	1198	263	1259	2572	483	494	2238	3316	493	4843	1281	877	5109	1492	1899	2002	1072	862	3093	1064	2502	1317	597	974	531	1099	478	4396	380	995	261	3658	795	526	956	764	203	253	4198	3836	918	498	4665	673	561	9250	2020	1186	2106	617	366	610	634	1304	175	793	722	913	490	399	808	1072	471	732	2587	1321	972	2237	577	927	3279	959	584	457	3834	2290	2269	813	397	4562	581	1313	719	1469	3903	515	479	344	1048	790	688	349	1017	557	799	502	434	92	1872	3350	693	501	704	3604	2794	1816	2079	3286	736	834	711	624	576	632	680	101	1701	473	679	703	1396	4841	1901	652	914	4934	570	867	2548	621	592	781	741	1128	620	1874
2020-10-10	278	658	789	510	1002	1450	1051	347	1413	2823	3203	998	1221	1096	924	705	1801	1540	14770	976	3381	1827	562	6123	566	1625	570	12090	676	617	2634	503	1343	2353	519	2162	882	509	1075	2198	3761	2342	531	1305	556	879	985	511	1686	1464	1016	630	945	3833	3541	721	415	493	1262	920	472	580	1667	304	6793	3172	549	592	2709	880	1153	883	436	2072	370	3254	931	784	2257	2922	263	351	663	719	392	631	2708	937	1132	588	565	283	795	2209	838	475	755	960	397	612	879	250	818	3014	745	735	293	767	680	1554	824	2325	615	1421	672	1699	514	1328	2196	382	1287	264	507	1789	1080	902	845	2094	836	725	2095	1188	1483	831	493	1219	1030	867	998	2190	1167	5955	3508	2334	1451	13240	7897	461	1946	658	688	10660	2254	807	191	382	13870	628	1334	317	275	1314	267	429	803	2134	1284	458	700	952	6619	1252	2536	208	1001	512	588	491	1217	265	1265	2663	487	504	2248	3383	497	5109	1294	885	5177	1513	1936	2012	1081	871	3160	1070	2524	1345	603	977	540	1105	488	4480	382	1016	263	3731	808	531	986	769	210	257	4299	3880	931	501	4836	683	568	9458	2028	1203	2132	623	369	621	637	1329	176	795	738	928	496	401	815	1080	476	745	2639	1328	975	2245	582	936	3375	964	591	459	3924	2376	2277	826	400	4664	583	1320	722	1472	3968	518	482	350	1061	796	694	350	1020	560	802	505	439	93	1896	3424	701	508	709	3652	2828	1837	2099	3355	746	836	716	627	581	636	682	102	1739	495	683	705	1407	4926	1920	659	918	5010	572	877	2570	625	595	781	745	1145	623	1918

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-04 to 2020-10-10

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-03	265	556	725	482	904	1433	995	329	1347	2603	2856	883	1118	1071	833	651	1753	1469	13125	906	3037	1628	537	5531	554	1413	544	10407	627	598	2542	442	1207	2073	509	2026	794	481	833	1629	3176	2070	512	1193	506	864	937	482	1641	1381	961	597	894	3414	3129	691	391	454	1134	888	461	557	1524	280	5697	2753	514	571	2523	799	991	858	412	1906	350	2887	863	776	2125	2507	245	345	631	650	375	583	2377	895	1054	569	522	271	719	1960	766	453	664	768	385	581	867	234	783	2653	642	703	283	740	589	1440	782	1836	554	1260	608	1438	492	1211	1941	367	1161	239	482	1646	1055	805	745	1890	790	692	1881	1121	1196	803	482	1073	943	853	960	2024	1081	5208	2895	2136	1337	10435	7499	454	1782	609	557	8761	2197	786	182	358	10580	585	1312	296	253	1254	263	406	769	1786	1255	429	658	759	4693	1138	2260	184	870	431	537	413	1092	255	1211	2086	461	477	2175	3149	470	3381	1192	827	4838	1371	1681	1943	1018	789	2722	1031	2205	1157	557	953	482	1002	423	4050	369	849	253	3243	719	498	779	735	164	232	3857	3575	842	484	3763	615	518	8072	1973	1087	1865	575	348	550	617	1157	164	781	651	825	452	379	760	1024	441	668	2281	1238	955	2175	549	871	2776	924	539	444	3332	1835	2218	732	379	4000	571	1276	696	1437	3538	494	457	308	945	750	652	342	997	541	783	482	404	87	1731	2920	640	458	669	3258	2598	1690	1961	2894	673	820	676	605	542	608	664	97	1398	355	655	691	1327	4271	1790	609	766	4564	555	807	2443	603	569	657	715	1031	603	1635
2020-10-04	266	565	737	486	918	1437	1004	332	1361	2633	2898	897	1129	1076	846	665	1766	1482	13360	920	3078	1659	543	5624	556	1438	549	10610	634	601	2565	450	1222	2101	512	2041	806	486	859	1684	3246	2118	518	1212	514	869	943	485	1650	1403	967	603	899	3474	3187	699	395	460	1155	895	466	561	1537	284	5830	2806	527	576	2548	808	1017	861	418	1930	354	2942	873	778	2152	2545	248	349	637	662	381	591	2418	903	1062	572	526	273	735	1986	776	457	679	819	387	585	869	237	796	2711	658	708	285	746	600	1458	790	1892	566	1274	617	1467	494	1233	1965	371	1191	242	486	1668	1061	819	758	1914	800	699	1905	1130	1229	807	484	1089	952	859	965	2054	1094	5294	3005	2161	1359	10800	7547	457	1805	617	570	9110	2210	791	183	363	11010	595	1320	301	257	1263	264	410	774	1829	1267	434	665	782	4916	1156	2298	187	886	444	545	423	1113	257	1219	2153	466	482	2191	3222	478	3646	1204	837	4911	1389	1721	1957	1027	802	2782	1038	2244	1185	563	958	501	1019	430	4127	371	867	255	3322	731	503	808	741	168	239	3949	3617	854	487	3889	626	525	8350	1994	1102	1893	582	352	560	624	1172	166	783	664	840	459	383	768	1049	445	678	2337	1249	962	2191	555	884	2858	943	546	446	3413	1899	2236	745	382	4116	576	1283	702	1443	3602	500	462	315	961	757	659	346	1000	547	789	488	408	88	1758	2995	646	465	677	3314	2640	1715	1982	2960	685	826	685	610	546	613	671	98	1442	368	659	697	1339	4371	1807	616	779	4629	563	816	2462	613	572	668	724	1049	609	1685
2020-10-05	268	574	748	492	933	1440	1011	335	1380	2666	2939	912	1142	1079	857	681	1777	1496	13630	930	3125	1690	548	5732	558	1463	552	10830	638	604	2592	457	1232	2135	515	2061	818	492	880	1746	3326	2160	523	1230	519	875	951	490	1660	1421	973	609	904	3541	3244	706	399	466	1173	899	470	564	1561	287	5963	2862	539	580	2576	820	1048	866	422	1955	357	2990	882	780	2184	2593	249	353	642	672	385	597	2462	909	1071	576	529	275	749	2015	788	460	690	882	389	589	871	239	809	2773	674	714	286	750	613	1474	798	1953	578	1293	624	1499	498	1257	1989	375	1223	246	489	1690	1065	829	773	1940	809	705	1931	1139	1264	810	486	1113	964	864	971	2082	1107	5399	3144	2192	1385	11180	7604	459	1828	626	583	9530	2226	794	184	367	11490	603	1328	305	261	1272	266	412	779	1885	1279	438	671	803	5165	1172	2339	190	900	458	550	432	1130	258	1227	2231	470	487	2201	3314	485	3896	1218	845	4991	1410	1767	1967	1038	812	2847	1045	2281	1211	569	962	524	1036	438	4224	373	889	256	3391	740	508	835	747	171	245	4052	3665	869	490	4042	637	532	8610	2018	1120	1929	588	356	568	633	1190	168	786	671	853	464	387	775	1076	449	688	2396	1262	970	2215	560	894	2956	960	553	448	3495	1957	2252	755	386	4236	579	1290	707	1448	3674	503	466	320	978	762	664	349	1002	555	798	492	413	89	1789	3063	652	474	684	3384	2682	1740	2008	3035	695	833	692	614	550	617	679	99	1477	379	663	703	1357	4467	1824	623	791	4752	568	826	2490	621	575	677	732	1067	617	1728
2020-10-06	270	583	758	497	949	1442	1018	337	1398	2698	2981	927	1155	1083	868	696	1790	1508	13890	939	3180	1722	553	5836	560	1486	556	11030	642	607	2619	463	1243	2162	517	2080	828	498	902	1810	3406	2203	528	1246	525	882	958	494	1671	1440	980	614	908	3610	3304	713	402	471	1190	904	475	568	1585	290	6102	2916	553	583	2603	832	1074	870	427	1980	360	3028	891	781	2215	2642	251	356	646	687	389	604	2505	916	1081	580	532	277	762	2044	800	464	704	945	391	594	873	242	824	2840	690	719	288	754	626	1491	807	2018	589	1308	631	1533	501	1289	2012	379	1255	249	493	1711	1068	839	788	1966	822	711	1957	1149	1299	812	488	1134	975	868	977	2110	1120	5506	3274	2222	1405	11560	7667	462	1850	635	594	9950	2242	798	185	370	11990	609	1337	309	264	1280	267	415	784	1928	1290	442	677	820	5421	1186	2378	192	913	472	556	440	1147	259	1236	2309	474	490	2211	3404	490	4141	1228	853	5076	1431	1805	1977	1048	825	2916	1051	2321	1236	575	966	546	1061	446	4329	375	918	258	3448	749	513	859	752	174	250	4158	3716	885	492	4213	647	539	8870	2041	1139	1966	594	362	578	641	1208	170	789	681	866	471	390	780	1097	454	701	2455	1273	978	2232	565	904	3051	977	559	450	3578	2024	2269	766	389	4360	584	1297	711	1453	3753	506	470	324	993	766	669	351	1005	562	807	495	416	90	1817	3129	657	481	691	3446	2722	1764	2033	3104	704	839	698	617	555	621	685	101	1529	391	667	709	1379	4572	1841	629	803	4868	575	834	2515	629	579	685	740	1085	625	1770
2020-10-07	272	592	769	502	967	1444	1024	340	1419	2737	3027	941	1167	1087	879	713	1806	1520	14160	949	3228	1753	559	5938	562	1511	560	11250	646	610	2647	471	1257	2191	520	2099	842	505	930	1877	3490	2245	534	1265	531	889	964	498	1682	1457	986	620	913	3681	3370	720	406	476	1210	910	480	571	1609	293	6239	2972	568	586	2632	843	1101	876	432	2005	363	3070	901	783	2247	2674	253	360	651	699	393	612	2549	922	1089	583	534	279	775	2072	812	468	724	1012	393	600	876	245	835	2907	704	724	290	758	639	1507	814	2084	601	1328	638	1571	505	1316	2032	382	1288	252	495	1735	1072	850	804	1995	830	715	1985	1158	1335	814	489	1160	988	873	981	2139	1132	5624	3421	2254	1432	11960	7729	464	1874	643	606	10420	2258	801	187	376	12550	616	1344	313	268	1289	269	418	789	1970	1301	445	683	840	5690	1205	2411	195	928	484	563	449	1164	261	1244	2385	478	495	2221	3502	495	4426	1244	860	5166	1452	1850	1989	1058	837	2979	1058	2364	1262	582	969	569	1083	454	4433	377	943	260	3523	759	518	887	758	178	255	4268	3772	899	495	4394	656	545	9150	2065	1157	1999	600	367	588	650	1226	172	791	693	880	475	395	786	1120	459	714	2516	1287	986	2256	569	915	3154	995	567	451	3665	2088	2286	777	392	4487	587	1304	715	1461	3821	510	474	331	1002	771	674	354	1007	569	816	498	420	91	1848	3198	662	490	700	3522	2764	1793	2060	3181	713	846	705	622	560	625	693	102	1570	403	670	714	1402	4675	1858	635	814	5000	581	843	2540	638	583	694	748	1104	634	1814
2020-10-08	274	601	779	507	977	1447	1031	342	1439	2771	3072	956	1180	1090	890	730	1819	1534	14440	959	3281	1785	569	6053	564	1532	563	11480	651	613	2675	478	1270	2221	523	2118	851	511	954	1944	3577	2290	539	1278	537	895	972	503	1692	1477	992	626	917	3743	3432	727	409	482	1231	914	484	575	1634	295	6386	3029	582	590	2660	853	1131	879	436	2029	366	3121	909	784	2280	2711	254	363	656	710	398	617	2588	929	1097	586	537	281	789	2100	824	471	733	1083	394	604	878	247	849	2974	718	730	292	761	652	1523	822	2158	613	1346	646	1595	508	1331	2058	386	1323	255	498	1756	1075	861	819	2030	837	719	2010	1168	1372	817	491	1183	999	877	986	2168	1145	5767	3576	2280	1460	12400	7791	467	1895	651	617	10910	2276	804	188	381	13080	623	1352	317	271	1297	270	420	794	2027	1313	449	689	857	5977	1218	2448	197	942	496	568	458	1182	262	1253	2463	482	501	2231	3609	501	4719	1261	868	5261	1473	1894	1997	1069	848	3040	1064	2407	1287	588	973	590	1106	463	4558	379	971	261	3598	770	522	917	765	181	260	4392	3826	911	497	4574	666	552	9430	2089	1175	2034	606	371	597	657	1244	174	794	705	891	480	399	792	1143	463	724	2578	1299	995	2277	574	927	3248	1012	574	453	3753	2143	2303	787	396	4618	592	1312	718	1467	3899	512	479	336	1015	776	679	356	1010	575	823	502	425	92	1880	3275	667	496	706	3589	2807	1818	2086	3263	718	852	711	625	564	629	700	103	1612	415	674	722	1419	4789	1875	640	827	5128	588	852	2567	647	586	704	758	1123	643	1860
2020-10-09	275	610	789	512	986	1449	1038	345	1461	2799	3117	970	1193	1094	901	743	1832	1542	14720	968	3332	1818	577	6170	566	1553	567	11690	653	616	2702	485	1278	2244	526	2138	860	517	975	2016	3659	2335	545	1291	543	901	980	507	1703	1496	998	631	921	3817	3492	733	413	487	1249	919	488	578	1669	298	6528	3088	597	594	2688	865	1154	883	441	2054	368	3158	919	786	2313	2746	256	367	660	721	402	621	2625	936	1104	588	541	283	803	2130	837	474	742	1157	396	607	880	250	866	3041	729	735	293	765	664	1540	830	2230	625	1361	654	1620	512	1354	2076	390	1355	258	501	1779	1078	870	835	2060	847	723	2038	1178	1410	819	493	1208	1009	882	990	2192	1158	5881	3733	2305	1484	12800	7854	469	1918	659	632	11390	2292	809	190	384	13590	630	1362	321	275	1306	271	423	798	2080	1324	453	695	872	6278	1234	2490	200	955	511	575	466	1199	263	1262	2552	486	507	2241	3712	507	5012	1269	876	5353	1495	1935	2007	1080	862	3103	1071	2448	1315	595	977	613	1124	471	4659	381	997	262	3671	782	527	943	770	184	265	4507	3876	921	500	4767	675	559	9700	2113	1194	2068	612	375	606	666	1263	177	796	714	902	484	403	797	1166	468	736	2641	1311	1003	2301	578	937	3344	1031	581	455	3843	2200	2318	797	399	4753	598	1319	722	1473	3968	515	483	340	1031	780	684	359	1012	582	831	505	430	92	1911	3345	672	502	711	3643	2848	1845	2112	3344	725	859	718	628	569	634	708	104	1653	428	677	727	1436	4895	1891	645	839	5246	595	861	2592	654	590	711	766	1143	651	1908
2020-10-10	277	619	799	517	996	1452	1045	347	1480	2825	3163	984	1205	1097	913	757	1844	1547	15000	978	3380	1851	582	6282	568	1567	571	11870	657	618	2728	492	1282	2260	529	2157	867	523	995	2094	3735	2377	550	1305	550	908	986	510	1713	1510	1003	637	924	3880	3552	740	416	493	1268	923	492	582	1696	301	6672	3146	612	596	2716	877	1180	886	445	2079	371	3192	928	787	2346	2772	257	369	664	729	406	626	2662	942	1112	590	543	285	818	2160	850	477	754	1237	398	610	881	253	879	3115	743	740	295	769	677	1556	837	2297	636	1374	660	1648	515	1374	2086	394	1391	262	504	1803	1081	880	851	2085	853	726	2066	1188	1449	821	495	1230	1017	886	995	2217	1171	5985	3894	2328	1506	13220	7912	472	1941	667	643	11890	2308	811	192	388	14150	636	1370	325	279	1314	273	425	803	2118	1336	457	700	888	6597	1248	2538	202	967	524	580	475	1217	264	1268	2642	490	515	2251	3820	510	5305	1280	884	5445	1517	1981	2014	1090	873	3179	1077	2481	1339	601	979	638	1143	480	4754	383	1023	264	3739	792	531	968	774	188	270	4624	3930	932	502	4934	685	565	10000	2138	1212	2101	618	380	614	673	1282	179	799	726	914	490	406	802	1187	473	747	2706	1322	1012	2319	583	945	3444	1051	587	457	3933	2266	2334	806	404	4893	601	1326	726	1477	4042	518	487	343	1045	785	689	362	1014	589	838	508	434	93	1938	3412	676	509	717	3692	2891	1868	2136	3417	732	865	724	629	572	638	714	106	1693	441	680	730	1450	4990	1909	649	849	5351	599	869	2617	662	594	714	774	1161	659	1950

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-03 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-03