COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-13 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-13

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-13

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)04-1510-0110-0104-29 --04-16 --10-02 -- -- -- -- --09-30 --10-0109-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-01 -- -- -- --10-0109-29 -- --04-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-08 -- -- -- -- --09-3010-01 -- --10-0209-30 -- --04-17 --09-30 --10-01 -- --09-2904-2009-30 -- --03-3009-30 -- -- --09-3004-20 -- -- -- --04-17 -- -- -- -- --04-1604-22 -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-27 --04-2805-11 -- --10-01 --04-1904-1503-3005-11 -- --09-29 -- --09-27 -- -- -- -- -- --09-2904-18 --07-01 -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 --04-1704-21 -- -- --10-01 -- -- -- -- -- --09-30 -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-27 -- --09-29 --09-30 -- -- -- --04-2304-22 -- -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- -- --09-30 -- --05-0404-2209-29 --09-3009-30 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-2909-30 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-30 --09-28 --09-3010-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-28 -- --04-22 -- -- -- -- -- --09-3003-2709-30 --09-3010-01 -- --03-30 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-01 -- -- -- -- --10-02 -- -- -- --04-08 -- -- -- --04-06 --10-0210-01 -- -- -- --09-30 -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-0104-16 --10-02 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 5 11 23 18 22 9 15 40 22 87 50 10 13 15 12 32 24 13 23 11 15 14 11 47 18 14 37 10 15 18 15 87 11 13 82 14 7 10 14 72 21 7 9 43 29 20 16 10 539 24 482 17 10 13 251 14 15 19 85 20 44 33 27 9 6 18 11 475 25 18 24 15 37 20 127 7 26 14 21 6 133 13 41 15 13 10 23
Days since peak 181 12 12 167 180 11 13 12 14 12 12 14 170 188 13 12 11 13 179 13 12 14 176 13 197 13 13 176 179 180 174 16 168 155 12 177 181 197 155 14 16 14 178 104 163 179 175 12 13 169 14 13 173 174 14 13 162 174 14 13 13 167 13 13 15 13 11 11 168 174 13 200 13 13 12 197 12 11 188 190 11 12 13 14 12 180 11
Last total 295 647 938 539 1175 1505 1178 407 1637 3255 3899 1171 1356 1209 1033 968 1963 1725 16300 1120 3989 2174 683 6950 633 2151 655 13042 735 687 3006 526 1581 3166 576 2391 1001 624 1359 2335 4234 2805 703 1612 668 982 1099 578 1872 2001 1144 705 1087 4368 4083 900 472 607 1564 1074 537 643 1802 387 8258 3614 636 650 2942 992 1294 943 521 2399 461 3906 1173 849 2616 3237 320 464 749 874 520 706 3041 1080 1210 609 630 353 991 2425 949 556 960 1442 454 647 902 303 1038 3407 1214 838 321 824 692 1747 956 2548 726 1581 767 1900 580 1592 2414 449 1591 297 548 2021 1153 985 1029 2375 978 819 2313 1261 1600 889 528 1414 1186 977 1060 2419 1348 6765 4414 2606 1990 14954 8431 518 2122 745 727 13636 2513 906 233 442 14260 790 1471 373 318 1493 320 475 884 2387 1513 551 789 1143 6689 1412 2820 256 1113 832 658 554 1468 310 1387 2836 550 649 2557 3980 652 7768 1346 1016 6199 1692 2275 2192 1260 1099 3474 1207 2790 1566 673 1099 751 1425 499 5424 440 1241 301 4344 884 597 1338 844 244 316 5353 4307 996 552 5619 810 647 11882 2362 1324 2411 700 478 715 779 1512 219 845 906 1040 529 504 905 1489 521 893 2816 1446 1100 2515 649 1044 3909 1215 705 500 4546 2741 2663 916 465 5290 691 1512 850 1586 4623 613 522 418 1172 971 795 412 1063 713 981 582 549 117 2212 4085 754 568 790 4478 3273 2082 2454 3969 915 965 856 747 662 753 776 135 2179 528 763 818 1679 6255 2181 737 1036 6006 674 959 2975 718 619 784 909 1363 755 2466
Last daily increment 2 3 16 3 18 4 18 5 18 57 104 24 18 18 28 16 13 24 327 19 82 39 10 146 7 27 9 239 11 10 42 5 34 140 7 29 24 22 46 49 84 62 37 44 22 9 20 4 27 57 13 4 17 90 82 11 2 13 39 24 3 6 23 7 266 83 5 6 28 16 26 10 6 26 7 113 26 6 43 62 3 8 8 15 20 10 55 13 15 2 17 10 22 40 16 10 29 34 11 10 9 8 15 64 59 8 4 7 17 24 12 35 12 33 11 38 9 45 64 5 46 5 8 36 7 13 32 48 18 14 43 9 43 8 6 38 25 14 8 38 27 127 125 46 58 345 88 7 23 16 20 374 22 8 2 4 323 16 13 7 9 22 8 10 7 62 27 11 11 20 133 26 54 7 14 53 9 19 26 9 16 62 12 6 39 83 22 246 15 25 135 31 41 21 15 30 67 19 35 28 7 14 30 32 3 130 5 54 5 102 19 10 49 14 8 8 147 80 7 10 125 15 11 233 32 35 54 13 19 12 16 23 6 3 24 25 4 10 17 42 10 27 36 18 15 17 5 6 101 21 24 5 90 69 63 17 9 95 12 27 16 16 109 9 7 1 22 27 9 6 4 20 24 11 12 1 40 98 5 6 5 104 61 31 33 85 27 10 13 13 10 22 10 4 53 14 12 13 29 206 49 6 25 96 10 17 60 10 8 7 12 21 8 77
Last week 14 44 128 35 172 44 102 47 178 354 650 153 143 82 131 190 92 140 1856 138 572 341 79 867 46 390 58 1557 57 51 257 45 203 729 34 191 128 80 285 372 608 392 122 239 108 62 103 53 127 423 100 59 111 551 532 112 52 82 247 111 41 45 134 69 1538 525 63 44 233 110 176 46 60 283 57 604 192 39 307 384 48 58 58 114 91 67 375 108 90 21 69 62 133 276 104 55 195 299 48 33 19 33 147 386 363 71 22 39 53 161 95 358 106 188 82 260 54 205 253 45 262 23 42 229 50 105 167 272 109 66 241 74 214 48 28 207 124 72 47 231 138 895 838 248 390 2436 574 38 190 74 102 2622 187 61 24 44 1929 146 78 43 39 132 31 44 64 335 146 62 80 175 947 146 329 43 128 254 50 100 219 28 101 371 49 90 245 434 107 2172 101 119 732 173 365 139 134 214 421 98 329 221 69 80 144 216 49 798 46 240 20 656 97 50 328 60 40 51 854 455 100 50 990 122 63 1843 218 133 309 71 76 86 99 208 31 30 136 101 41 78 78 257 47 137 288 114 85 186 43 81 648 176 106 29 656 536 287 90 50 737 62 142 101 74 619 71 39 57 148 119 67 37 39 92 124 46 69 20 269 618 54 59 70 702 399 225 264 583 151 74 100 78 81 77 59 20 461 119 64 69 179 1171 236 73 139 773 58 90 345 57 25 77 108 202 79 467
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- --07-13 -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- --03-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-21 -- -- --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-10 -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-15 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-05 -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 24 20 65 52 38 73 49 23 75 80 24 68 43 28 31
Low between peaks 0 2 1 0 6 0 7 1 0

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-14 to 2020-10-20

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-10-13 295 647 938 539 1175 1505 1178 407 1637 3255 3899 1171 1356 1209 1033 968 1963 1725 16300 1120 3989 2174 683 6950 633 2151 655 13042 735 687 3006 526 1581 3166 576 2391 1001 624 1359 2335 4234 2805 703 1612 668 982 1099 578 1872 2001 1144 705 1087 4368 4083 900 472 607 1564 1074 537 643 1802 387 8258 3614 636 650 2942 992 1294 943 521 2399 461 3906 1173 849 2616 3237 320 464 749 874 520 706 3041 1080 1210 609 630 353 991 2425 949 556 960 1442 454 647 902 303 1038 3407 1214 838 321 824 692 1747 956 2548 726 1581 767 1900 580 1592 2414 449 1591 297 548 2021 1153 985 1029 2375 978 819 2313 1261 1600 889 528 1414 1186 977 1060 2419 1348 6765 4414 2606 1990 14954 8431 518 2122 745 727 13636 2513 906 233 442 14260 790 1471 373 318 1493 320 475 884 2387 1513 551 789 1143 6689 1412 2820 256 1113 832 658 554 1468 310 1387 2836 550 649 2557 3980 652 7768 1346 1016 6199 1692 2275 2192 1260 1099 3474 1207 2790 1566 673 1099 751 1425 499 5424 440 1241 301 4344 884 597 1338 844 244 316 5353 4307 996 552 5619 810 647 11882 2362 1324 2411 700 478 715 779 1512 219 845 906 1040 529 504 905 1489 521 893 2816 1446 1100 2515 649 1044 3909 1215 705 500 4546 2741 2663 916 465 5290 691 1512 850 1586 4623 613 522 418 1172 971 795 412 1063 713 981 582 549 117 2212 4085 754 568 790 4478 3273 2082 2454 3969 915 965 856 747 662 753 776 135 2179 528 763 818 1679 6255 2181 737 1036 6006 674 959 2975 718 619 784 909 1363 755 2466
2020-10-14 297 656 945 545 1175 1510 1208 414 1667 3353 3992 1186 1366 1224 1057 992 1982 1761 16690 1128 3989 2191 683 7106 641 2249 662 13210 759 702 3042 534 1631 3330 582 2408 1031 624 1414 2398 4347 2851 729 1663 690 991 1114 584 1902 2093 1144 714 1108 4457 4139 918 477 622 1590 1090 539 649 1835 398 8560 3686 648 658 2981 1008 1329 946 530 2432 465 4113 1205 857 2623 3283 331 467 759 882 539 716 3155 1085 1224 613 647 362 1031 2453 957 575 972 1593 463 653 903 320 1054 3445 1271 841 324 830 702 1761 956 2612 742 1611 779 1923 589 1676 2499 449 1645 302 554 2050 1162 991 1068 2418 1001 832 2352 1275 1637 897 532 1450 1241 993 1068 2451 1381 6765 4523 2686 2058 15540 8490 528 2122 762 743 13870 2524 917 233 444 14970 803 1483 378 323 1516 328 481 898 2473 1550 563 799 1178 7070 1487 2858 263 1113 896 667 575 1483 316 1403 2874 564 677 2598 4074 681 8055 1356 1031 6324 1724 2312 2210 1284 1120 3557 1224 2848 1579 677 1115 783 1440 501 5504 448 1274 307 4425 890 605 1367 866 260 324 5430 4387 996 553 5975 816 656 12340 2386 1348 2475 714 501 722 798 1524 226 850 942 1064 535 509 923 1516 531 925 2840 1474 1112 2544 661 1050 4011 1254 721 504 4589 2853 2717 951 467 5428 709 1537 870 1602 4739 616 528 432 1203 1022 802 416 1064 732 1005 597 567 118 2238 4184 764 571 790 4522 3348 2119 2454 4046 957 976 861 763 667 770 800 139 2179 548 782 848 1722 6461 2234 746 1054 6248 680 981 3012 728 623 784 926 1374 761 2519
2020-10-15 299 665 951 550 1190 1515 1236 421 1700 3438 4084 1201 1377 1238 1081 1017 1996 1794 17070 1137 4040 2210 693 7261 648 2335 669 13370 775 712 3078 542 1657 3504 587 2426 1055 636 1444 2463 4462 2897 755 1713 712 1000 1128 591 1931 2183 1152 722 1127 4530 4197 937 482 635 1621 1106 543 655 1868 410 8870 3757 661 665 3019 1025 1365 957 544 2466 469 4246 1238 865 2657 3327 340 470 770 890 558 720 3202 1092 1237 617 667 372 1072 2482 969 585 997 1660 472 659 907 330 1070 3481 1327 845 326 836 712 1775 960 2675 758 1640 791 1945 597 1727 2552 453 1699 306 559 2085 1170 996 1099 2461 1025 845 2389 1288 1672 906 535 1486 1270 1008 1077 2483 1412 6857 4634 2733 2134 16060 8578 536 2136 779 759 14110 2536 927 235 447 15350 819 1494 384 329 1539 335 487 910 2555 1586 575 809 1211 7288 1503 2914 270 1129 956 675 596 1497 322 1419 2910 576 700 2637 4169 706 8382 1378 1046 6449 1754 2368 2228 1307 1168 3640 1240 2907 1592 681 1130 816 1457 504 5606 455 1306 312 4517 897 613 1394 879 276 328 5535 4462 1008 558 6168 823 665 12630 2410 1370 2532 728 524 730 817 1537 233 854 965 1089 541 517 941 1533 541 956 2866 1500 1123 2571 661 1057 4109 1277 736 509 4633 2961 2765 972 476 5564 724 1562 889 1617 4842 620 534 445 1223 1050 807 418 1066 750 1030 611 583 119 2275 4287 775 574 795 4615 3423 2154 2480 4122 986 986 867 778 672 787 811 142 2222 572 795 867 1756 6666 2286 756 1072 6434 686 1002 3082 738 627 786 943 1386 766 2575
2020-10-16 302 673 958 555 1198 1520 1265 428 1741 3493 4179 1206 1387 1252 1106 1041 2015 1826 17460 1146 4097 2231 694 7418 655 2404 676 13530 788 723 3113 550 1679 3685 593 2443 1077 647 1495 2528 4581 2944 781 1765 734 1008 1141 599 1959 2274 1152 730 1146 4600 4254 956 487 649 1648 1123 547 660 1901 421 9140 3830 673 673 3057 1040 1402 964 553 2500 474 4345 1270 872 2691 3368 349 473 780 898 577 724 3246 1098 1250 621 683 381 1113 2511 982 597 1021 1718 482 665 910 335 1092 3520 1384 848 329 842 722 1787 969 2738 774 1671 802 1967 606 1769 2600 456 1753 310 564 2120 1179 1002 1127 2504 1038 857 2424 1301 1708 914 538 1523 1296 1018 1085 2515 1444 6906 4748 2775 2192 16470 8654 545 2151 795 775 14340 2547 938 237 449 15700 836 1505 389 334 1562 342 494 923 2619 1623 587 820 1242 7472 1527 2969 277 1130 1011 683 616 1512 328 1435 2948 589 715 2677 4262 731 8619 1394 1062 6578 1783 2421 2245 1330 1216 3724 1256 2970 1605 685 1146 850 1467 506 5687 462 1341 317 4601 903 620 1404 889 291 330 5617 4540 1014 565 6290 832 674 12870 2434 1386 2584 742 548 736 836 1550 240 859 983 1114 547 529 959 1549 551 990 2894 1525 1135 2598 661 1063 4209 1299 750 513 4678 3058 2812 994 483 5703 743 1587 909 1632 4928 624 539 456 1253 1070 811 421 1068 769 1058 625 599 120 2299 4362 785 577 802 4670 3499 2190 2493 4200 1011 997 873 793 676 804 818 146 2235 604 808 879 1784 6811 2339 765 1090 6585 692 1021 3146 747 630 792 960 1398 772 2631
2020-10-17 304 682 965 560 1201 1524 1293 435 1762 3533 4272 1206 1397 1266 1130 1066 2027 1857 17840 1154 4138 2250 698 7574 661 2468 683 13700 799 732 3149 557 1715 3831 598 2461 1098 658 1522 2595 4699 2991 807 1818 756 1017 1153 602 1988 2365 1152 739 1165 4662 4313 974 492 662 1666 1139 548 665 1935 433 9360 3903 685 681 3096 1056 1439 967 556 2533 479 4453 1302 880 2707 3396 358 475 790 906 595 724 3293 1104 1263 625 696 391 1156 2539 994 609 1040 1763 491 670 910 346 1101 3557 1441 852 332 848 732 1800 973 2800 790 1702 813 1989 614 1808 2630 456 1808 314 569 2147 1187 1007 1149 2548 1053 868 2458 1314 1743 922 541 1561 1315 1024 1093 2547 1475 6956 4864 2814 2245 16870 8698 553 2165 811 792 14590 2558 949 238 451 15970 852 1516 394 339 1585 349 500 935 2672 1660 600 830 1273 7643 1546 3002 284 1134 1059 691 638 1526 333 1450 2985 602 730 2715 4358 749 8838 1404 1077 6706 1811 2460 2263 1353 1258 3808 1270 3033 1618 689 1161 885 1477 508 5778 470 1374 322 4665 910 628 1421 896 307 332 5659 4615 1017 571 6429 840 684 13090 2457 1403 2620 756 572 739 855 1562 246 863 1004 1139 553 537 977 1572 561 1023 2922 1550 1145 2625 663 1070 4308 1317 765 517 4721 3133 2857 1013 488 5840 751 1612 929 1647 4995 628 544 463 1274 1080 811 425 1070 788 1069 639 616 121 2310 4449 794 580 803 4723 3575 2225 2506 4277 1035 1007 880 808 681 820 824 149 2268 628 821 890 1802 6900 2392 775 1107 6706 698 1039 3190 756 634 794 977 1409 777 2688
2020-10-18 306 690 971 565 1203 1529 1322 441 1782 3557 4368 1206 1407 1281 1154 1091 2042 1888 18240 1163 4174 2270 702 7734 668 2518 690 13870 810 742 3185 565 1718 3952 604 2479 1114 668 1541 2664 4821 3038 835 1873 778 1025 1165 605 2017 2457 1152 747 1184 4697 4373 993 497 675 1678 1156 548 671 1970 445 9610 3978 697 688 3134 1072 1477 971 564 2567 483 4558 1335 888 2728 3427 367 477 800 914 614 726 3327 1111 1276 629 706 401 1201 2568 1007 616 1059 1822 500 676 911 352 1116 3594 1501 855 334 854 742 1813 974 2863 806 1734 824 2012 623 1843 2641 459 1864 318 574 2170 1196 1012 1175 2592 1072 880 2491 1328 1778 930 544 1599 1329 1028 1101 2580 1508 7002 4982 2836 2288 17230 8756 562 2165 826 808 14840 2569 959 238 453 16190 868 1527 400 344 1609 356 506 948 2712 1698 612 840 1304 7812 1559 3032 291 1145 1101 699 659 1540 339 1466 3022 615 746 2754 4455 756 9054 1415 1093 6837 1838 2485 2280 1376 1307 3894 1285 3096 1631 694 1177 921 1484 510 5847 477 1409 327 4729 917 635 1421 904 324 334 5690 4690 1018 575 6545 848 693 13340 2481 1413 2660 771 597 739 874 1575 253 867 1018 1165 559 546 996 1587 571 1057 2951 1575 1156 2652 663 1076 4408 1330 779 521 4764 3213 2902 1031 491 5981 758 1636 949 1662 5073 633 550 477 1288 1090 811 427 1072 808 1085 653 633 122 2321 4523 804 583 806 4769 3653 2260 2506 4355 1060 1016 886 823 685 837 828 153 2292 628 834 894 1815 6997 2446 784 1124 6835 704 1053 3226 766 638 800 994 1421 783 2747
2020-10-19 308 699 978 570 1224 1534 1352 448 1818 3617 4467 1232 1418 1295 1180 1117 2059 1919 18650 1171 4252 2290 712 7897 675 2584 698 14040 819 752 3220 573 1732 4096 609 2497 1139 679 1576 2735 4946 3086 863 1929 802 1033 1176 617 2047 2552 1161 755 1203 4781 4434 1012 503 688 1710 1173 551 676 2005 457 9900 4054 709 696 3172 1089 1516 980 570 2601 488 4662 1368 895 2767 3475 376 479 810 923 634 738 3383 1117 1290 633 720 411 1247 2598 1020 622 1083 1875 509 681 914 362 1138 3632 1562 859 336 860 752 1826 978 2926 822 1766 835 2035 632 1886 2677 464 1922 322 580 2217 1204 1017 1210 2637 1090 891 2524 1341 1814 938 547 1639 1356 1038 1109 2613 1541 7078 5104 2883 2344 17720 8827 570 2179 842 826 15090 2580 970 241 455 16530 884 1538 405 349 1632 363 512 960 2777 1737 625 851 1335 8017 1575 3089 298 1157 1165 707 682 1554 345 1482 3059 628 766 2793 4555 774 9348 1431 1109 6970 1865 2550 2298 1399 1343 3982 1299 3161 1643 698 1193 959 1503 512 5973 485 1444 332 4831 923 643 1431 917 341 340 5804 4765 1031 584 6690 856 703 13690 2505 1432 2717 786 623 745 895 1588 260 871 1038 1191 565 556 1014 1616 581 1093 2980 1600 1167 2679 664 1083 4510 1376 794 526 4808 3307 2947 1054 502 6125 766 1661 970 1677 5195 637 555 486 1321 1107 814 436 1074 828 1115 668 650 123 2360 4620 814 585 810 4869 3733 2295 2521 4435 1093 1026 892 839 690 854 837 156 2355 639 846 909 1839 7182 2502 794 1140 7020 709 1070 3310 775 642 808 1012 1433 788 2807
2020-10-20 310 707 985 575 1247 1539 1382 455 1841 3685 4567 1258 1428 1310 1206 1143 2072 1950 19060 1180 4353 2311 723 8064 682 2632 705 14220 826 761 3257 581 1764 4272 615 2515 1167 696 1632 2807 5074 3135 892 1987 826 1042 1188 624 2077 2650 1174 763 1222 4885 4496 1031 508 701 1754 1189 556 681 2040 470 10220 4131 721 704 3211 1105 1556 987 579 2636 493 4758 1402 903 2804 3545 385 481 820 931 653 749 3426 1124 1303 636 736 422 1296 2628 1033 629 1117 1933 519 687 920 371 1152 3671 1626 862 339 866 762 1839 992 2990 838 1798 846 2058 641 1925 2726 471 1982 327 585 2253 1212 1021 1247 2683 1112 902 2557 1354 1850 946 550 1679 1386 1048 1117 2647 1575 7211 5229 2935 2407 18130 8897 579 2205 857 844 15350 2591 981 244 457 16930 900 1549 411 355 1656 371 518 972 2849 1776 638 862 1366 8192 1607 3143 305 1175 1238 715 705 1568 350 1498 3097 642 776 2832 4658 800 9668 1446 1125 7106 1892 2598 2315 1423 1375 4071 1312 3227 1656 702 1209 999 1542 515 6121 493 1481 337 4947 930 650 1480 930 358 350 5965 4841 1043 590 6844 865 713 13980 2529 1459 2776 801 651 760 915 1601 266 875 1067 1219 571 568 1034 1664 592 1130 3009 1625 1178 2706 667 1090 4612 1407 809 530 4853 3386 2992 1071 511 6273 778 1686 991 1693 5323 641 561 490 1342 1132 823 441 1076 849 1139 683 667 124 2397 4727 824 588 815 5003 3814 2331 2559 4516 1119 1036 899 854 694 872 843 160 2416 654 859 925 1876 7406 2558 804 1157 7160 715 1086 3366 784 646 819 1029 1445 794 2868

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-14 to 2020-10-20

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-10-13 295 647 938 539 1175 1505 1178 407 1637 3255 3899 1171 1356 1209 1033 968 1963 1725 16300 1120 3989 2174 683 6950 633 2151 655 13042 735 687 3006 526 1581 3166 576 2391 1001 624 1359 2335 4234 2805 703 1612 668 982 1099 578 1872 2001 1144 705 1087 4368 4083 900 472 607 1564 1074 537 643 1802 387 8258 3614 636 650 2942 992 1294 943 521 2399 461 3906 1173 849 2616 3237 320 464 749 874 520 706 3041 1080 1210 609 630 353 991 2425 949 556 960 1442 454 647 902 303 1038 3407 1214 838 321 824 692 1747 956 2548 726 1581 767 1900 580 1592 2414 449 1591 297 548 2021 1153 985 1029 2375 978 819 2313 1261 1600 889 528 1414 1186 977 1060 2419 1348 6765 4414 2606 1990 14954 8431 518 2122 745 727 13636 2513 906 233 442 14260 790 1471 373 318 1493 320 475 884 2387 1513 551 789 1143 6689 1412 2820 256 1113 832 658 554 1468 310 1387 2836 550 649 2557 3980 652 7768 1346 1016 6199 1692 2275 2192 1260 1099 3474 1207 2790 1566 673 1099 751 1425 499 5424 440 1241 301 4344 884 597 1338 844 244 316 5353 4307 996 552 5619 810 647 11882 2362 1324 2411 700 478 715 779 1512 219 845 906 1040 529 504 905 1489 521 893 2816 1446 1100 2515 649 1044 3909 1215 705 500 4546 2741 2663 916 465 5290 691 1512 850 1586 4623 613 522 418 1172 971 795 412 1063 713 981 582 549 117 2212 4085 754 568 790 4478 3273 2082 2454 3969 915 965 856 747 662 753 776 135 2179 528 763 818 1679 6255 2181 737 1036 6006 674 959 2975 718 619 784 909 1363 755 2466
2020-10-14 297 655 957 544 1207 1510 1202 413 1673 3333 4030 1199 1380 1222 1058 1001 1981 1749 16630 1140 4073 2228 700 7101 643 2218 666 13310 746 696 3047 535 1611 3308 582 2425 1022 639 1416 2406 4347 2874 729 1662 689 991 1119 586 1896 2076 1160 714 1098 4472 4175 918 477 620 1607 1094 544 648 1828 396 8570 3704 647 658 2980 1009 1330 951 531 2448 471 4042 1205 855 2665 3312 327 473 761 895 539 720 3114 1099 1224 611 642 366 1020 2470 965 569 995 1503 461 653 906 310 1058 3476 1284 848 324 831 702 1776 969 2610 743 1616 780 1954 589 1646 2474 456 1645 301 555 2064 1163 1003 1067 2425 991 832 2355 1273 1641 897 533 1452 1215 991 1069 2460 1373 6929 4570 2660 2054 15460 8527 525 2154 761 746 14090 2542 918 238 447 14740 817 1488 381 324 1518 326 482 895 2453 1539 564 802 1176 6886 1443 2878 264 1137 884 667 570 1504 317 1403 2892 559 667 2598 4064 673 8370 1364 1036 6344 1723 2341 2217 1282 1130 3562 1224 2849 1600 685 1115 782 1464 507 5573 446 1287 304 4479 899 607 1401 861 250 326 5512 4393 1009 560 5846 830 660 12290 2399 1349 2472 714 492 733 799 1543 225 850 934 1066 534 516 920 1536 529 922 2861 1469 1113 2543 657 1055 4025 1253 726 505 4643 2841 2713 934 473 5431 702 1537 869 1602 4744 627 528 431 1198 999 808 419 1068 732 1004 592 565 119 2259 4173 763 578 800 4616 3341 2118 2499 4073 945 977 872 766 674 771 787 139 2255 547 773 834 1719 6475 2227 748 1067 6154 686 975 3034 729 624 794 925 1391 767 2555
2020-10-15 300 664 978 550 1237 1517 1227 422 1704 3404 4146 1229 1402 1236 1081 1044 1997 1771 16960 1161 4163 2282 719 7242 650 2313 677 13600 756 704 3093 543 1644 3444 588 2458 1043 652 1467 2488 4456 2950 753 1704 707 1001 1133 594 1916 2144 1180 725 1108 4576 4268 941 484 634 1648 1111 552 656 1858 405 8880 3795 660 667 3024 1029 1367 959 545 2497 484 4161 1241 862 2716 3384 334 483 773 915 554 730 3175 1119 1239 615 657 375 1055 2518 981 578 1033 1589 467 658 909 319 1081 3546 1358 859 327 837 711 1805 984 2676 762 1654 793 2003 597 1684 2522 465 1693 307 560 2099 1171 1020 1095 2475 1018 844 2398 1288 1680 905 536 1493 1238 1004 1078 2499 1400 7111 4746 2704 2131 16050 8624 532 2186 774 765 14580 2568 931 242 457 15180 838 1502 389 330 1543 331 489 906 2524 1564 574 815 1211 7117 1473 2935 272 1165 937 678 589 1541 321 1421 2965 566 687 2633 4150 694 9120 1386 1054 6474 1753 2408 2240 1307 1167 3639 1240 2906 1640 697 1130 814 1506 514 5718 453 1328 308 4608 916 616 1466 872 259 335 5683 4466 1033 565 6046 852 674 12750 2436 1373 2533 727 505 751 817 1579 230 855 964 1085 540 529 934 1582 539 948 2918 1490 1126 2575 664 1072 4149 1284 749 510 4753 2962 2750 951 481 5569 716 1561 888 1615 4859 639 535 444 1219 1021 820 425 1072 751 1027 601 579 122 2311 4303 775 587 813 4758 3406 2159 2550 4177 971 990 886 779 686 784 799 145 2350 572 783 846 1759 6683 2270 765 1097 6331 696 991 3089 738 628 804 945 1429 780 2652
2020-10-16 302 674 998 555 1263 1523 1245 430 1742 3465 4257 1255 1425 1249 1102 1088 2016 1791 17290 1180 4258 2338 730 7385 657 2399 686 13860 764 713 3139 552 1680 3581 594 2492 1064 665 1526 2575 4561 3022 775 1749 725 1011 1145 602 1934 2215 1191 734 1118 4670 4356 964 490 648 1690 1129 561 664 1887 415 9190 3886 673 674 3069 1048 1399 966 555 2546 495 4257 1275 868 2764 3454 341 492 784 941 569 738 3231 1139 1254 618 667 385 1089 2566 999 588 1068 1675 473 663 912 326 1107 3622 1426 871 330 844 720 1834 1000 2742 782 1690 806 2052 605 1722 2569 473 1740 313 565 2134 1180 1039 1123 2524 1035 855 2441 1302 1719 912 540 1533 1262 1016 1087 2539 1426 7267 4924 2751 2205 16530 8714 538 2220 788 785 15090 2593 944 246 466 15610 859 1516 398 336 1567 336 496 917 2589 1588 587 827 1244 7337 1501 2996 280 1187 990 690 604 1578 326 1438 3043 574 704 2668 4235 716 9820 1402 1072 6610 1780 2474 2260 1332 1203 3723 1257 2962 1682 707 1144 846 1539 522 5855 460 1372 311 4738 932 624 1529 884 264 344 5846 4535 1048 571 6235 871 688 13190 2473 1394 2591 738 518 768 834 1616 235 861 992 1105 546 545 948 1629 547 972 2972 1510 1138 2605 672 1089 4268 1315 767 515 4864 3084 2789 970 488 5709 733 1585 906 1627 4966 650 541 456 1245 1046 833 432 1078 767 1052 610 593 124 2359 4409 786 597 825 4865 3473 2200 2597 4281 997 1003 901 795 697 798 810 149 2430 603 793 860 1796 6881 2308 777 1127 6480 707 1007 3142 748 631 816 966 1466 794 2747
2020-10-17 305 684 1017 560 1283 1529 1263 439 1762 3515 4368 1275 1448 1262 1125 1128 2031 1812 17620 1199 4346 2394 743 7528 664 2484 694 14110 772 720 3184 561 1718 3715 600 2525 1081 678 1577 2664 4659 3097 795 1787 743 1021 1157 607 1952 2284 1202 744 1128 4770 4447 987 497 662 1730 1146 569 671 1913 426 9480 3977 686 682 3112 1067 1429 971 565 2595 504 4366 1307 875 2808 3516 348 500 794 960 585 747 3292 1153 1269 620 676 394 1124 2613 1015 597 1099 1758 478 667 913 335 1127 3693 1492 883 333 850 730 1863 1014 2809 801 1728 819 2099 612 1759 2602 481 1789 318 570 2164 1190 1056 1141 2569 1050 865 2489 1316 1759 920 543 1568 1281 1027 1095 2577 1450 7414 5083 2794 2259 16980 8792 543 2247 801 802 15530 2616 953 250 474 16000 880 1528 406 342 1590 341 502 928 2651 1611 600 839 1274 7553 1529 3050 288 1210 1046 700 621 1616 330 1456 3111 581 721 2703 4313 735 10520 1415 1091 6738 1807 2531 2279 1357 1239 3807 1273 3019 1723 718 1155 878 1570 529 5990 468 1405 315 4849 948 631 1596 891 271 354 5999 4587 1061 576 6407 890 702 13640 2510 1412 2645 750 530 784 851 1653 239 867 1020 1126 551 558 962 1678 554 994 3027 1527 1150 2629 681 1107 4388 1347 781 520 4970 3192 2824 987 495 5852 742 1608 923 1638 5073 659 548 464 1266 1064 845 439 1082 781 1065 620 607 127 2386 4521 797 606 834 4962 3538 2237 2639 4380 1017 1015 914 806 709 812 819 152 2510 629 803 871 1825 7063 2339 787 1157 6596 714 1020 3184 757 635 826 986 1495 808 2847
2020-10-18 307 694 1036 565 1301 1536 1275 447 1780 3557 4485 1293 1470 1274 1148 1162 2050 1832 17960 1217 4415 2453 755 7663 671 2561 702 14340 779 727 3231 570 1747 3832 606 2559 1095 690 1633 2754 4761 3175 817 1824 761 1030 1169 613 1967 2343 1215 754 1136 4869 4538 1011 503 676 1766 1164 575 679 1940 436 9760 4070 699 690 3157 1084 1462 977 576 2645 514 4473 1341 882 2850 3586 356 511 804 979 600 756 3350 1171 1284 623 683 402 1160 2661 1030 605 1126 1859 484 674 915 343 1151 3766 1561 895 337 857 739 1893 1029 2872 822 1758 833 2138 620 1790 2627 489 1838 324 575 2186 1198 1072 1165 2615 1070 874 2532 1331 1800 926 546 1602 1298 1037 1104 2619 1480 7539 5262 2836 2300 17540 8865 549 2271 814 822 16010 2640 964 253 478 16390 902 1538 416 348 1613 345 509 939 2704 1635 610 850 1306 7781 1554 3096 296 1234 1101 711 637 1655 334 1469 3180 588 738 2738 4391 750 11290 1426 1110 6867 1831 2575 2298 1383 1276 3891 1289 3077 1758 728 1164 912 1597 536 6108 475 1439 318 4961 965 639 1664 900 279 363 6132 4637 1072 580 6579 910 716 14120 2548 1432 2697 761 541 796 866 1692 243 872 1042 1147 558 569 976 1724 562 1011 3089 1546 1162 2651 689 1124 4510 1379 791 524 5082 3302 2859 1001 500 5998 750 1631 937 1649 5172 666 554 478 1284 1081 857 444 1086 797 1079 629 618 129 2417 4641 810 615 842 5058 3604 2275 2675 4480 1035 1028 928 815 718 826 828 155 2579 647 812 878 1851 7248 2372 794 1186 6732 721 1030 3216 765 639 838 1007 1527 823 2948
2020-10-19 309 704 1057 571 1327 1542 1291 456 1807 3591 4608 1321 1494 1286 1169 1201 2067 1853 18320 1236 4520 2513 770 7812 678 2656 713 14600 787 736 3281 580 1771 3960 613 2593 1120 702 1697 2850 4891 3258 840 1858 781 1040 1181 623 1982 2408 1232 764 1148 4966 4633 1036 510 690 1803 1182 583 687 1965 447 10070 4168 712 699 3204 1103 1507 985 586 2699 526 4575 1376 888 2903 3662 363 524 817 993 615 766 3402 1190 1300 630 694 409 1203 2711 1045 610 1160 1978 489 681 918 352 1178 3848 1641 907 340 864 749 1922 1043 2943 843 1789 846 2180 628 1827 2652 498 1893 330 580 2221 1207 1092 1196 2663 1093 882 2573 1346 1842 934 550 1640 1315 1048 1115 2659 1508 7695 5434 2880 2364 18260 8952 556 2298 827 844 16510 2665 976 258 488 16870 925 1552 426 354 1639 350 516 950 2750 1660 623 863 1365 8046 1589 3149 305 1261 1158 725 652 1695 339 1484 3274 595 759 2774 4476 773 12540 1439 1129 7001 1856 2642 2322 1409 1310 3986 1304 3135 1797 739 1172 955 1638 544 6272 482 1487 322 5105 982 648 1734 909 286 373 6271 4707 1095 586 6797 933 731 14680 2587 1452 2757 773 553 809 884 1731 247 878 1069 1168 566 584 991 1773 570 1030 3155 1565 1175 2682 698 1141 4640 1416 811 529 5211 3430 2888 1020 506 6151 759 1655 954 1661 5295 677 561 489 1313 1100 869 454 1091 817 1107 638 628 132 2461 4794 823 625 852 5187 3675 2321 2713 4604 1061 1040 943 828 728 841 843 160 2683 669 822 890 1880 7425 2407 806 1214 6923 731 1042 3267 778 643 849 1029 1567 837 3056
2020-10-20 312 714 1077 577 1355 1549 1307 465 1830 3654 4729 1353 1518 1301 1193 1242 2086 1873 18690 1255 4630 2575 785 7962 686 2762 723 14910 795 744 3327 589 1813 4102 619 2632 1146 715 1765 2961 5013 3349 865 1900 800 1052 1194 631 1998 2481 1253 775 1158 5090 4735 1061 516 705 1843 1200 592 695 1999 458 10410 4269 726 707 3250 1125 1545 991 598 2752 541 4693 1414 895 2953 3749 371 535 830 1023 631 777 3465 1209 1318 633 703 418 1242 2764 1063 617 1194 2103 494 689 922 362 1203 3931 1722 919 343 870 758 1952 1060 3018 864 1828 860 2232 636 1877 2694 508 1947 336 584 2249 1220 1111 1238 2712 1121 893 2622 1360 1884 942 553 1683 1340 1060 1126 2699 1537 7881 5638 2927 2434 18880 9044 563 2329 842 865 17190 2688 988 262 497 17420 948 1568 436 360 1665 355 523 961 2827 1685 637 875 1410 8321 1632 3205 314 1292 1228 740 670 1737 345 1500 3379 602 777 2810 4579 795 13630 1451 1149 7149 1886 2708 2346 1436 1342 4083 1321 3195 1838 750 1182 995 1690 552 6447 490 1538 328 5252 1000 658 1815 920 297 384 6471 4768 1115 591 7063 955 746 15250 2626 1476 2820 784 568 834 902 1772 253 884 1112 1196 573 598 1005 1838 580 1054 3218 1587 1187 2712 709 1160 4788 1452 831 534 5337 3570 2927 1040 513 6307 773 1680 970 1675 5432 687 567 501 1338 1124 883 461 1095 836 1128 647 639 134 2506 4937 835 635 863 5345 3745 2366 2762 4735 1088 1053 958 844 739 856 853 165 2796 694 833 905 1924 7664 2448 819 1247 7110 743 1055 3312 792 647 863 1051 1607 853 3168

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    2020-10-13 Moved to a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.