COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-18

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	04-29	--	04-14	10-05	10-07	--	10-04	--	10-05	--	03-27	--	--	10-07	10-05	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-07	10-07	--	07-15	--	--	--	04-26	--	10-06	--	10-05	10-05	--	--	10-07	10-07	--	04-08	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-07	--	--	10-07	05-03	10-04	--	--	--	--	09-16	--	--	--	09-28	04-20	10-04	10-07	10-06	03-31	10-04	--	--	--	--	10-07	--	--	--	--	04-17	--	10-07	10-04	--	--	10-07	04-22	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	04-28	05-11	--	--	10-04	10-07	--	04-15	03-30	05-11	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-07	--	--	10-05	10-06	--	--	10-04	04-18	10-07	07-01	10-04	10-04	--	10-07	10-07	--	05-03	--	04-16	04-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	10-04	10-06	--	10-06	--	--	10-04	--	04-27	--	10-07	09-28	10-05	10-06	10-07	10-07	--	--	--	04-22	10-06	--	--	10-06	09-27	09-29	--	10-07	10-05	--	10-06	10-05	--	--	05-04	10-07	09-29	--	10-06	10-05	09-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-04	10-04	04-29	--	--	10-07	10-06	10-07	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	10-07	--	--	--	10-06	--	10-05	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-04	10-04	10-04	--	--	05-26	--	10-04	--	--	--	04-28	10-06	--	04-22	--	05-09	--	10-04	--	09-25	--	--	09-04	10-07	10-07	10-05	10-04	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	10-05	10-06	--	--	--	10-06	10-04	--	10-07	--	--	--	10-04	10-07	10-04	--	--	--	04-06	--	10-06	10-04	04-27	10-07	--	--	10-06	--	10-04	--	10-06	10-06	10-05	--	--	--	--	10-06	10-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-07	10-07	--	10-07	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	10-05	10-07
Peak daily increment	5			18		22	25	9		69		32		24			22	30		25					14			321	15		4				12		26		60	85			30	53		15							28			26	14	16					30				13	11	46	21	51	18	12					12					15		22	15			17	16			32					82		11	13			76	80		7	9	14			70			18			42	48			6	9	47	43	21	33		22	15		29		20	16				10				169			510	132		38			508		24		9	426	32	20	9	8				13	70			23	59	215		71	9		62	14			15	21	76		20	53	86		552				32	66	33			88	21	60						11				5				75		8				16				13	439	45			15		18				25	29		18		19		8		56			10	11	18	119	37						22		131	12				125	20		14				7	9	19				6		129	12	15	15			42		110		18	20	18					88	24							31	144		23			10				14	105
Days since peak	186			172		187	13	11		14		13		205			11	13		12					14			11	11		95				175		12		13	13			11	11		193							11			11	168	14					32				20	181	14	11	12	201	14					11					184		11	14			11	179			12					21		173	160			14	11		186	202	160			14			11			13	12			14	183	11	109	14	14		11	11		168		185	180				14				12			14	12		12			14		174		11	20	13	12	11	11				179	12			12	21	19		11	13		12	13			167	11	19		12	13	23		12				14	14	172			11	12	11						180				11				12		13				12				14	14	14			145		14				173	12		179		162		14		23			44	11	11	13	14						12		13	12				12	14		11				14	11	14				195		12	14	174	11			12		14		12	12	13					12	17							11	11		11			185				13	11
Last total	317	699	1114	598	1402	1547	1286	448	1825	3561	4719	1305	1508	1285	1216	1132	2083	1875	18177	1231	4639	2671	801	7883	685	2600	730	14597	803	755	3250	588	1772	3963	625	2604	1122	693	1612	2645	4811	3313	810	1851	828	1044	1262	652	1994	2390	1242	760	1173	4820	4564	1038	516	666	1815	1224	584	682	1920	425	9453	4106	711	698	3170	1080	1534	994	567	2722	538	4771	1372	898	2976	3633	345	533	792	971	613	765	3488	1203	1284	651	705	412	1147	2779	1059	605	1152	1605	517	679	923	337	1225	3780	1524	912	337	868	771	1922	1052	2859	818	1804	840	2142	615	1770	2611	494	1793	324	582	2252	1239	1064	1140	2671	1075	877	2601	1339	1822	954	548	1618	1338	1048	1097	2698	1546	7782	5126	2901	2423	17197	9004	560	2296	868	846	15635	2738	972	260	486	15984	956	1568	414	359	1633	352	526	935	2752	1634	602	877	1293	7318	1575	3137	287	1301	1100	720	630	1678	334	1495	3137	624	730	2758	4379	771	9140	1453	1122	7006	1828	2537	2325	1477	1324	3876	1314	3069	1884	750	1187	951	1639	537	6239	483	1511	329	5107	969	656	1656	930	272	353	6278	4813	1069	594	6497	927	701	13647	2553	1492	2747	748	552	777	918	1765	260	905	1017	1121	589	571	981	1770	549	1061	3073	1587	1194	2758	707	1132	4477	1356	834	536	5215	3283	3038	1024	504	5859	744	1649	973	1703	5218	696	572	483	1376	1064	852	441	1116	795	1140	619	668	128	2532	4648	795	616	869	5285	3730	2280	2731	4481	1086	1041	952	818	733	832	841	157	2518	577	825	900	1896	7292	2413	817	1182	6608	744	1057	3332	783	659	875	1017	1663	810	2937
Last daily increment	4	9	25	4	27	8	17	2	38	39	144	17	25	10	31	21	15	37	260	13	103	38	17	136	7	59	8	236	8	12	34	13	31	115	9	35	23	18	39	43	105	101	18	28	21	8	25	10	18	70	30	3	7	74	82	22	11	14	54	13	10	4	26	6	155	70	19	10	37	18	21	11	6	46	5	147	31	2	49	58	1	5	12	9	11	3	60	22	13	10	14	3	26	54	28	9	25	24	19	5	4	5	25	74	34	9	1	9	14	23	21	58	17	33	10	34	4	24	33	7	24	3	5	36	15	12	13	44	13	8	38	7	46	17	1	30	13	10	2	48	37	174	110	35	62	342	82	7	20	22	12	254	23	8	1	8	252	35	9	7	6	22	6	14	11	52	14	5	7	17	96	29	51	2	37	35	8	8	40	0	16	53	21	14	26	49	10	145	21	19	134	16	30	35	28	28	61	10	40	50	10	16	25	29	8	148	3	38	5	110	15	7	40	13	5	7	171	80	12	4	139	20	9	241	19	20	53	8	22	10	24	47	8	13	18	14	8	7	10	52	5	22	37	16	12	41	5	9	92	20	21	4	91	68	48	8	5	98	6	22	26	9	94	10	6	8	28	13	5	4	8	8	25	2	13	1	52	78	3	8	9	141	70	30	42	76	31	6	9	8	14	17	11	1	47	8	11	14	36	144	33	13	22	85	12	9	54	6	1	22	25	22	6	73
Last week	24	55	192	62	238	45	124	45	200	354	914	157	169	92	208	180	125	170	2181	129	722	495	125	1069	59	469	84	1779	79	78	285	65	220	929	56	238	145	90	295	356	651	568	141	276	180	70	183	78	142	439	111	59	101	536	555	146	46	71	288	167	49	45	138	44	1457	567	80	54	249	101	264	55	51	342	83	946	221	55	399	451	27	77	50	108	111	65	497	136	87	47	92	68	174	392	121	56	213	195	73	40	30	42	189	430	364	82	19	47	96	199	109	343	104	255	84	274	43	220	259	50	247	32	42	260	93	90	141	337	112	70	328	83	261	70	26	243	171	85	44	314	218	1139	829	334	489	2568	653	44	190	137	139	2318	247	71	29	48	2031	179	107	47	48	156	40	61	57	423	144	62	99	170	752	188	367	37	200	316	71	94	234	31	122	358	84	85	237	480	139	1582	120	130	936	163	296	153	228	251	463	123	313	338	82	101	230	242	41	934	47	322	32	851	105	70	362	101	36	44	1055	583	79	52	995	131	64	1956	223	201	382	59	94	70	152	274	46	63	132	105	63	76	90	323	36	194	289	157	108	254	61	89	664	161	153	41	747	601	437	124	48	657	62	163	137	130	697	90	57	61	224	120	65	35	55	102	175	48	123	12	357	660	47	54	81	901	513	225	301	588	195	86	106	81	80	101	74	25	389	64	74	94	243	1226	277	83	169	693	78	112	410	75	47	98	118	286	62	541
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-10	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-07	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-08	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56			51																							40											68				48																				18																																																		23							75	75												23																										68													22																					21																											43																	27								21
Low between peaks																												27			2																																						1																				0																																																		0							6	16												0																										7													0																					0																											1																	2								0

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-19 to 2020-10-25

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-18	317	699	1114	598	1402	1547	1286	448	1825	3561	4719	1305	1508	1285	1216	1132	2083	1875	18177	1231	4639	2671	801	7883	685	2600	730	14597	803	755	3250	588	1772	3963	625	2604	1122	693	1612	2645	4811	3313	810	1851	828	1044	1262	652	1994	2390	1242	760	1173	4820	4564	1038	516	666	1815	1224	584	682	1920	425	9453	4106	711	698	3170	1080	1534	994	567	2722	538	4771	1372	898	2976	3633	345	533	792	971	613	765	3488	1203	1284	651	705	412	1147	2779	1059	605	1152	1605	517	679	923	337	1225	3780	1524	912	337	868	771	1922	1052	2859	818	1804	840	2142	615	1770	2611	494	1793	324	582	2252	1239	1064	1140	2671	1075	877	2601	1339	1822	954	548	1618	1338	1048	1097	2698	1546	7782	5126	2901	2423	17197	9004	560	2296	868	846	15635	2738	972	260	486	15984	956	1568	414	359	1633	352	526	935	2752	1634	602	877	1293	7318	1575	3137	287	1301	1100	720	630	1678	334	1495	3137	624	730	2758	4379	771	9140	1453	1122	7006	1828	2537	2325	1477	1324	3876	1314	3069	1884	750	1187	951	1639	537	6239	483	1511	329	5107	969	656	1656	930	272	353	6278	4813	1069	594	6497	927	701	13647	2553	1492	2747	748	552	777	918	1765	260	905	1017	1121	589	571	981	1770	549	1061	3073	1587	1194	2758	707	1132	4477	1356	834	536	5215	3283	3038	1024	504	5859	744	1649	973	1703	5218	696	572	483	1376	1064	852	441	1116	795	1140	619	668	128	2532	4648	795	616	869	5285	3730	2280	2731	4481	1086	1041	952	818	733	832	841	157	2518	577	825	900	1896	7292	2413	817	1182	6608	744	1057	3332	783	659	875	1017	1663	810	2937
2020-10-19	320	709	1114	601	1402	1554	1303	455	1838	3641	4858	1330	1536	1299	1251	1188	2100	1899	18540	1241	4751	2720	816	8148	688	2661	730	14840	813	772	3291	599	1789	4027	625	2651	1143	713	1672	2712	4936	3422	810	1902	839	1055	1275	676	1994	2471	1281	769	1191	4873	4659	1060	524	671	1909	1250	598	691	1943	433	9790	4217	724	706	3209	1099	1538	997	576	2778	551	4943	1400	901	2977	3716	347	537	801	996	636	771	3628	1243	1298	656	717	421	1174	2840	1083	619	1186	1637	532	685	923	340	1281	3852	1577	923	340	876	782	1969	1077	2923	837	1860	853	2224	623	1802	2634	498	1811	329	588	2291	1253	1080	1162	2671	1095	888	2637	1350	1869	963	552	1651	1338	1055	1102	2734	1602	7886	5333	2932	2488	17740	9051	567	2315	889	859	16300	2785	983	263	494	16280	990	1569	421	365	1660	357	546	945	2765	1642	602	891	1322	7694	1610	3187	289	1351	1149	731	630	1721	335	1495	3202	639	746	2796	4476	791	9940	1476	1134	7181	1855	2632	2351	1501	1362	3940	1328	3122	1939	762	1211	964	1671	545	6545	494	1520	333	5107	988	666	1724	949	278	367	6466	4919	1083	597	6649	959	712	14070	2631	1533	2804	759	577	787	946	1823	266	913	1047	1133	597	592	991	1842	556	1061	3124	1587	1199	2792	717	1148	4645	1382	885	545	5274	3388	3085	1033	523	5976	748	1674	1006	1703	5316	708	572	492	1405	1094	857	447	1123	810	1164	626	668	130	2612	4794	803	626	882	5571	3823	2318	2772	4618	1121	1053	960	831	744	852	852	158	2626	588	836	923	1936	7469	2450	826	1207	6728	748	1071	3374	794	664	897	1058	1721	821	3033
2020-10-20	323	718	1131	604	1408	1560	1320	462	1855	3709	4994	1353	1569	1314	1285	1225	2124	1922	18900	1251	4862	2769	834	8379	691	2732	731	15070	822	789	3333	609	1815	4095	633	2697	1163	732	1729	2774	5060	3533	826	1953	851	1065	1299	686	2012	2552	1309	779	1209	4928	4769	1081	531	676	1973	1276	607	700	1965	442	10060	4328	736	713	3249	1118	1573	1006	585	2834	564	5122	1428	903	3022	3792	349	540	810	1019	659	778	3701	1274	1311	662	739	434	1200	2901	1106	630	1222	1666	546	691	930	343	1319	3921	1631	933	343	883	794	2014	1100	2988	857	1914	866	2282	632	1835	2657	502	1831	334	594	2330	1266	1097	1183	2709	1113	899	2673	1361	1915	973	555	1683	1358	1062	1107	2779	1656	8072	5514	2962	2573	18190	9101	574	2335	910	872	16760	2827	995	265	502	16580	1023	1584	428	372	1688	362	564	954	2829	1650	606	906	1351	7852	1646	3236	291	1394	1197	742	639	1765	337	1507	3267	653	762	2833	4566	811	10270	1496	1145	7357	1882	2678	2376	1535	1401	4004	1342	3175	1989	775	1228	976	1717	553	6767	505	1554	337	5143	1007	675	1798	967	285	380	6667	5022	1098	600	6809	989	723	14380	2690	1584	2862	769	605	796	973	1878	273	920	1077	1145	605	607	1001	1912	562	1073	3175	1597	1205	2825	726	1163	4788	1407	925	554	5334	3484	3130	1043	535	6094	753	1698	1026	1712	5412	719	576	502	1434	1125	861	452	1129	823	1188	634	683	132	2669	4915	811	636	894	5750	3917	2355	2824	4731	1155	1065	969	845	755	870	862	159	2693	600	848	943	1986	7669	2487	839	1231	6846	756	1084	3452	806	669	917	1083	1780	833	3133
2020-10-21	326	727	1147	607	1431	1566	1337	469	1894	3774	5129	1377	1601	1328	1321	1268	2151	1945	19270	1262	4972	2820	853	8617	695	2826	742	15310	831	806	3373	620	1841	4170	641	2759	1183	752	1780	2854	5182	3645	837	2004	864	1075	1328	706	2026	2632	1341	788	1228	4984	4889	1102	538	681	2024	1301	620	710	1987	450	10340	4444	748	721	3287	1137	1624	1019	594	2890	576	5344	1456	906	3075	3877	351	544	820	1044	679	785	3787	1306	1324	667	751	454	1226	2963	1130	642	1257	1697	560	696	933	346	1362	3991	1698	944	346	890	805	2058	1121	3052	877	1969	879	2351	641	1867	2680	506	1850	339	600	2369	1279	1113	1205	2754	1130	910	2710	1372	1960	982	558	1714	1375	1069	1112	2844	1712	8267	5691	2992	2662	18690	9151	581	2356	931	885	17190	2867	1006	268	509	16880	1057	1605	435	378	1714	366	584	964	2887	1658	612	920	1380	8014	1681	3286	293	1449	1245	753	644	1809	338	1518	3331	668	778	2871	4665	832	10650	1515	1158	7537	1908	2722	2401	1581	1440	4068	1356	3227	2073	787	1248	989	1776	560	7024	516	1591	341	5220	1026	684	1872	990	291	393	6875	5129	1112	603	6964	1019	733	14720	2749	1629	2918	780	633	806	1006	1932	279	927	1098	1157	613	622	1011	1987	568	1096	3226	1613	1211	2858	735	1179	4928	1432	971	562	5390	3599	3174	1052	544	6209	757	1723	1058	1725	5509	730	585	511	1463	1149	866	457	1136	837	1212	642	697	134	2736	5037	820	645	907	5958	4011	2391	2895	4838	1184	1077	977	858	766	888	873	161	2756	611	859	967	2042	7857	2524	854	1256	6966	766	1098	3525	817	674	938	1116	1846	844	3241
2020-10-22	328	736	1164	611	1449	1573	1354	477	1918	3842	5261	1400	1634	1342	1356	1305	2172	1966	19640	1272	5081	2870	869	8846	698	2905	746	15550	840	823	3413	630	1854	4245	649	2798	1203	772	1829	2907	5302	3760	849	2051	877	1085	1360	718	2040	2712	1366	798	1246	5040	4993	1123	544	686	2101	1328	632	719	2009	459	10590	4563	761	729	3326	1156	1669	1024	602	2946	589	5551	1484	909	3120	3966	353	548	829	1069	700	792	3888	1337	1337	672	761	470	1253	3026	1153	656	1292	1726	574	702	936	350	1406	4059	1747	954	349	898	816	2099	1142	3116	897	2024	892	2419	650	1899	2702	510	1869	345	606	2408	1291	1129	1226	2798	1147	922	2746	1383	2006	991	562	1746	1402	1075	1117	2885	1767	8467	5853	3022	2753	19180	9200	587	2376	953	899	17640	2904	1017	271	517	17180	1090	1628	442	384	1740	371	603	973	2948	1665	615	934	1408	8188	1717	3335	295	1502	1294	764	651	1853	340	1534	3395	683	794	2908	4742	852	10960	1543	1170	7720	1935	2783	2425	1619	1479	4132	1370	3279	2149	799	1275	1001	1817	568	7278	528	1638	345	5265	1045	693	1950	1007	297	406	7098	5236	1126	605	7126	1048	744	14990	2808	1678	2976	790	657	816	1038	1983	286	933	1119	1169	621	637	1022	2050	574	1110	3277	1628	1217	2891	745	1194	5073	1456	1023	570	5446	3729	3218	1062	552	6325	762	1747	1089	1737	5605	741	591	520	1492	1174	870	463	1143	850	1237	650	705	136	2804	5154	828	655	919	6143	4108	2428	2949	4950	1215	1088	985	872	777	906	883	162	2826	623	870	987	2110	8030	2561	872	1280	7085	773	1111	3613	828	679	957	1150	1906	856	3337
2020-10-23	331	746	1183	614	1467	1579	1370	484	1949	3901	5395	1423	1680	1356	1393	1352	2190	1988	20030	1283	5192	2922	889	9104	701	2986	752	15780	850	840	3454	639	1872	4321	659	2835	1223	793	1877	2975	5422	3879	859	2096	891	1095	1399	733	2061	2793	1391	807	1264	5097	5158	1145	551	692	2151	1354	645	728	2030	467	10820	4685	773	736	3365	1174	1713	1029	611	3002	602	5747	1512	912	3193	4038	356	552	838	1094	718	799	3952	1369	1351	677	775	494	1279	3090	1177	671	1328	1755	588	708	940	353	1462	4128	1792	965	352	905	827	2139	1163	3181	917	2080	905	2504	659	1932	2725	514	1889	350	612	2447	1304	1145	1247	2840	1165	933	2783	1394	2051	1000	565	1778	1416	1082	1122	2933	1824	8628	6002	3052	2834	19640	9251	594	2397	975	914	18030	2942	1028	273	524	17480	1123	1649	449	390	1767	375	622	983	3006	1673	619	949	1437	8315	1754	3385	298	1568	1344	775	658	1899	342	1549	3460	699	810	2946	4813	874	11220	1562	1183	7907	1962	2839	2450	1657	1518	4197	1384	3331	2250	811	1295	1014	1882	575	7492	539	1684	349	5343	1064	702	1999	1021	303	419	7287	5346	1140	608	7291	1077	754	15280	2854	1722	3033	801	679	825	1070	2035	293	940	1136	1182	628	652	1032	2137	581	1127	3328	1637	1223	2925	754	1210	5189	1480	1100	578	5503	3837	3261	1072	561	6443	766	1771	1119	1744	5703	752	597	529	1522	1196	874	468	1149	863	1261	657	708	138	2870	5243	836	665	931	6285	4206	2464	3036	5040	1252	1100	994	885	788	924	893	163	2897	634	881	1025	2172	8212	2598	891	1305	7204	782	1125	3685	839	683	976	1180	1976	868	3426
2020-10-24	334	755	1198	618	1480	1585	1388	491	1959	3935	5530	1446	1711	1370	1431	1382	2203	2010	20420	1293	5304	2975	903	9329	704	3055	761	16020	859	857	3495	649	1895	4399	665	2866	1244	814	1923	3022	5542	4002	859	2131	905	1105	1423	742	2073	2875	1415	816	1282	5155	5264	1166	558	697	2199	1381	654	738	2052	476	11010	4810	786	744	3404	1193	1744	1036	620	3058	615	5935	1541	915	3238	4094	358	556	847	1119	731	806	4010	1402	1364	682	785	505	1306	3156	1201	683	1364	1785	603	713	944	357	1490	4198	1841	975	355	912	839	2179	1184	3246	938	2138	918	2547	668	1965	2748	519	1909	355	618	2487	1316	1161	1269	2861	1183	944	2821	1405	2097	1009	569	1810	1428	1088	1127	2972	1882	8795	6114	3083	2894	20020	9301	601	2418	997	928	18350	2979	1039	276	532	17790	1157	1660	456	396	1794	379	643	992	3061	1680	619	963	1466	8393	1791	3435	300	1614	1394	786	667	1946	344	1560	3526	714	826	2983	4875	895	11440	1581	1196	8099	1989	2882	2475	1678	1559	4262	1399	3383	2298	823	1309	1027	1912	583	7691	551	1718	353	5405	1084	711	2061	1034	309	432	7470	5458	1154	611	7460	1107	765	15520	2897	1762	3091	811	696	835	1099	2087	300	946	1156	1194	636	667	1042	2191	587	1141	3380	1643	1230	2958	763	1225	5315	1505	1136	587	5560	3919	3304	1082	566	6562	771	1796	1133	1751	5801	763	599	537	1553	1209	879	473	1155	876	1286	665	719	140	2901	5354	844	674	944	6410	4307	2501	3087	5138	1277	1112	1002	899	799	942	903	164	2961	646	892	1040	2216	8344	2636	905	1330	7325	788	1139	3750	850	688	995	1209	2015	879	3508
2020-10-25	337	764	1219	621	1499	1591	1405	499	1994	3973	5667	1469	1732	1384	1470	1407	2216	2032	20810	1304	5416	3029	922	9469	708	3116	769	16260	868	875	3536	658	1912	4478	673	2898	1264	836	1965	3065	5664	4129	873	2163	919	1115	1447	746	2090	2958	1439	826	1300	5214	5337	1188	564	702	2241	1408	660	747	2075	485	11210	4938	799	752	3444	1212	1762	1044	628	3115	628	6103	1571	918	3288	4150	360	560	856	1145	742	814	4043	1436	1378	687	796	505	1334	3223	1226	691	1402	1814	619	719	946	360	1515	4268	1886	986	358	919	850	2218	1204	3312	960	2197	932	2563	678	1998	2771	523	1929	360	624	2527	1328	1177	1290	2899	1200	956	2859	1416	2144	1018	572	1843	1441	1095	1132	3002	1943	8948	6226	3114	2962	20370	9352	608	2439	1020	943	18640	3017	1050	278	540	18100	1192	1667	463	403	1821	384	664	1002	3108	1688	630	978	1495	8503	1830	3485	302	1647	1446	798	676	1994	346	1573	3592	730	842	3021	4929	917	11690	1600	1209	8296	2016	2920	2499	1704	1600	4327	1413	3436	2336	836	1324	1041	1931	591	7813	563	1759	357	5518	1104	720	2104	1042	315	446	7634	5573	1168	614	7633	1137	776	15790	2908	1782	3150	822	709	845	1124	2139	307	953	1175	1207	643	682	1053	2231	593	1165	3432	1661	1236	2992	772	1241	5406	1530	1151	595	5618	3998	3348	1092	572	6682	775	1820	1161	1760	5900	773	606	547	1584	1219	883	479	1162	890	1312	673	730	142	2939	5435	853	684	956	6573	4411	2538	3113	5212	1308	1124	1011	913	811	961	914	166	3016	658	904	1043	2244	8490	2674	914	1355	7447	796	1153	3812	861	693	1014	1231	2043	891	3581

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-19 to 2020-10-25

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-18	317	699	1114	598	1402	1547	1286	448	1825	3561	4719	1305	1508	1285	1216	1132	2083	1875	18177	1231	4639	2671	801	7883	685	2600	730	14597	803	755	3250	588	1772	3963	625	2604	1122	693	1612	2645	4811	3313	810	1851	828	1044	1262	652	1994	2390	1242	760	1173	4820	4564	1038	516	666	1815	1224	584	682	1920	425	9453	4106	711	698	3170	1080	1534	994	567	2722	538	4771	1372	898	2976	3633	345	533	792	971	613	765	3488	1203	1284	651	705	412	1147	2779	1059	605	1152	1605	517	679	923	337	1225	3780	1524	912	337	868	771	1922	1052	2859	818	1804	840	2142	615	1770	2611	494	1793	324	582	2252	1239	1064	1140	2671	1075	877	2601	1339	1822	954	548	1618	1338	1048	1097	2698	1546	7782	5126	2901	2423	17197	9004	560	2296	868	846	15635	2738	972	260	486	15984	956	1568	414	359	1633	352	526	935	2752	1634	602	877	1293	7318	1575	3137	287	1301	1100	720	630	1678	334	1495	3137	624	730	2758	4379	771	9140	1453	1122	7006	1828	2537	2325	1477	1324	3876	1314	3069	1884	750	1187	951	1639	537	6239	483	1511	329	5107	969	656	1656	930	272	353	6278	4813	1069	594	6497	927	701	13647	2553	1492	2747	748	552	777	918	1765	260	905	1017	1121	589	571	981	1770	549	1061	3073	1587	1194	2758	707	1132	4477	1356	834	536	5215	3283	3038	1024	504	5859	744	1649	973	1703	5218	696	572	483	1376	1064	852	441	1116	795	1140	619	668	128	2532	4648	795	616	869	5285	3730	2280	2731	4481	1086	1041	952	818	733	832	841	157	2518	577	825	900	1896	7292	2413	817	1182	6608	744	1057	3332	783	659	875	1017	1663	810	2937
2020-10-19	321	708	1140	608	1444	1554	1303	455	1864	3634	4893	1332	1534	1297	1249	1162	2101	1906	18520	1250	4775	2740	826	8068	693	2676	742	14890	813	767	3295	599	1807	4112	632	2647	1146	707	1668	2704	4951	3416	828	1894	854	1055	1287	669	2012	2474	1269	768	1189	4913	4649	1063	524	677	1875	1244	593	689	1944	433	9730	4198	726	707	3209	1096	1566	1004	573	2780	551	4925	1411	904	3035	3722	350	547	802	992	631	782	3577	1227	1298	660	719	422	1175	2840	1084	614	1191	1633	530	685	928	343	1261	3856	1586	925	340	876	782	1953	1069	2917	838	1848	852	2190	623	1804	2655	503	1833	329	588	2299	1253	1079	1166	2725	1092	886	2647	1351	1865	966	551	1657	1364	1061	1104	2744	1580	7974	5271	2956	2497	17660	9103	567	2325	888	864	16050	2774	984	264	495	16270	987	1582	421	365	1660	359	536	945	2813	1658	613	888	1327	7464	1606	3203	292	1333	1153	729	643	1721	336	1511	3194	639	745	2794	4453	791	9460	1476	1142	7170	1852	2606	2354	1511	1362	3955	1332	3120	1930	764	1204	988	1674	544	6433	491	1564	333	5262	986	665	1735	948	276	361	6483	4927	1085	601	6657	956	711	13990	2592	1521	2808	758	568	790	945	1812	266	914	1042	1136	598	583	993	1827	554	1085	3117	1608	1209	2796	715	1145	4592	1391	861	542	5332	3382	3100	1041	514	5967	752	1674	998	1719	5333	707	579	491	1418	1083	863	447	1124	810	1171	624	686	131	2607	4767	803	626	882	5480	3820	2323	2782	4596	1125	1052	967	832	749	849	854	161	2618	589	837	916	1933	7529	2455	830	1215	6733	759	1070	3405	796	664	893	1041	1709	821	3047
2020-10-20	324	718	1171	615	1476	1561	1323	464	1888	3706	5062	1357	1563	1315	1284	1197	2123	1929	18890	1273	4898	2824	849	8251	703	2767	752	15190	825	780	3339	609	1841	4313	640	2688	1170	725	1732	2770	5074	3519	856	1951	884	1066	1309	679	2033	2554	1286	779	1207	5006	4744	1088	531	690	1928	1269	601	697	1967	443	10050	4306	737	715	3252	1115	1606	1013	581	2843	565	5080	1455	913	3099	3801	357	559	811	1015	653	794	3654	1248	1314	663	739	434	1207	2903	1105	621	1233	1675	542	693	933	352	1291	3927	1666	940	343	883	793	1986	1086	2979	857	1894	866	2241	631	1853	2708	511	1881	334	594	2343	1266	1097	1196	2781	1113	900	2697	1365	1909	975	555	1698	1394	1073	1112	2792	1614	8167	5444	3013	2589	18130	9203	574	2358	908	886	16520	2809	994	269	502	16610	1019	1597	429	372	1689	366	546	956	2890	1681	625	902	1357	7615	1640	3262	300	1366	1221	742	660	1768	342	1530	3263	651	761	2835	4537	816	9930	1494	1163	7335	1880	2664	2377	1548	1408	4038	1353	3177	1983	780	1219	1026	1711	552	6616	500	1628	339	5406	1005	675	1812	964	283	370	6675	5017	1099	609	6842	980	723	14390	2637	1551	2874	769	583	804	970	1860	275	922	1071	1157	606	599	1009	1882	561	1114	3168	1630	1224	2830	725	1162	4712	1423	889	548	5447	3494	3162	1061	525	6092	764	1702	1020	1738	5458	720	587	502	1452	1108	875	453	1130	827	1207	634	706	133	2661	4885	813	635	895	5656	3910	2363	2834	4709	1161	1066	985	848	763	867	864	166	2694	604	850	931	1978	7776	2500	842	1247	6867	770	1089	3475	809	669	906	1062	1763	834	3155
2020-10-21	328	727	1200	624	1521	1568	1344	473	1935	3775	5246	1383	1593	1328	1318	1237	2145	1954	19280	1297	5026	2909	873	8443	713	2873	770	15490	837	792	3388	620	1874	4504	647	2738	1192	741	1797	2848	5193	3621	883	2009	916	1077	1334	693	2052	2642	1301	791	1223	5098	4842	1114	539	703	1978	1294	610	705	1989	453	10390	4418	749	724	3295	1134	1652	1023	591	2907	580	5267	1503	921	3165	3889	364	572	820	1034	676	807	3741	1275	1328	669	752	451	1238	2966	1126	630	1281	1719	554	699	936	358	1322	4001	1752	956	347	891	804	2020	1103	3042	876	1942	879	2296	640	1896	2744	519	1929	339	600	2392	1279	1116	1225	2842	1134	912	2749	1378	1953	984	560	1738	1422	1085	1120	2842	1648	8375	5617	3073	2686	18630	9327	582	2392	930	911	17000	2847	1006	275	510	16970	1051	1617	438	380	1717	372	556	966	2962	1705	638	916	1387	7768	1671	3319	308	1402	1287	754	676	1816	347	1548	3326	662	779	2876	4623	843	10380	1512	1185	7512	1909	2721	2399	1589	1457	4124	1376	3234	2044	796	1235	1067	1761	559	6795	509	1688	344	5578	1022	686	1894	986	289	380	6869	5117	1115	616	7068	1006	735	14800	2682	1580	2940	780	599	818	998	1908	285	929	1097	1174	615	615	1024	1941	567	1148	3219	1658	1246	2872	734	1178	4834	1453	917	554	5562	3623	3218	1083	534	6218	774	1730	1046	1759	5587	735	597	514	1488	1130	886	458	1137	844	1235	643	728	136	2724	4999	823	643	908	5840	4002	2403	2895	4822	1191	1080	1003	865	777	885	877	170	2767	619	859	946	2025	8014	2546	855	1280	6997	784	1108	3540	820	675	921	1085	1823	846	3271
2020-10-22	331	737	1231	632	1563	1575	1366	482	1967	3849	5419	1408	1623	1342	1353	1273	2166	1980	19670	1320	5153	2996	895	8630	723	2969	782	15800	852	806	3439	631	1902	4674	655	2778	1212	757	1862	2911	5314	3722	911	2065	948	1089	1359	704	2071	2728	1317	802	1235	5199	4940	1141	546	716	2035	1321	619	713	2010	464	10690	4535	762	734	3339	1152	1697	1030	601	2970	595	5433	1551	930	3231	3984	371	584	829	1055	699	818	3831	1301	1344	676	763	465	1271	3036	1148	639	1325	1765	563	705	939	366	1354	4073	1836	971	350	898	814	2053	1119	3105	896	1990	893	2351	648	1934	2781	528	1978	344	606	2439	1293	1134	1254	2903	1155	924	2801	1392	1998	993	565	1780	1458	1097	1127	2888	1682	8593	5786	3127	2786	19160	9430	588	2426	950	935	17510	2883	1020	280	519	17310	1084	1637	446	387	1746	377	565	976	3039	1728	649	930	1419	7925	1706	3385	316	1441	1354	766	693	1865	351	1569	3390	674	797	2917	4701	869	10870	1539	1207	7687	1938	2786	2424	1629	1506	4205	1397	3291	2109	812	1254	1106	1804	566	6987	518	1756	348	5730	1040	695	1981	1003	297	389	7078	5213	1130	623	7275	1030	748	15220	2727	1611	3007	792	613	834	1026	1958	293	936	1122	1191	626	630	1040	1999	574	1180	3271	1687	1263	2912	743	1195	4958	1487	950	560	5686	3762	3278	1104	543	6347	783	1758	1072	1779	5710	748	606	525	1523	1154	898	464	1143	862	1265	653	748	138	2794	5121	833	653	922	6005	4096	2445	2956	4940	1223	1094	1022	879	791	900	888	174	2847	635	871	962	2076	8239	2593	871	1314	7133	794	1128	3614	832	680	936	1110	1881	859	3386
2020-10-23	334	747	1262	639	1598	1582	1386	492	2003	3926	5593	1432	1655	1359	1386	1326	2187	2001	20040	1345	5285	3087	916	8814	733	3070	794	16110	863	818	3482	642	1930	4860	663	2816	1236	774	1930	2975	5439	3825	937	2120	980	1101	1383	717	2089	2815	1331	813	1250	5303	5046	1167	554	729	2087	1348	628	722	2033	477	11020	4654	774	741	3383	1170	1742	1037	610	3034	610	5601	1590	938	3304	4070	378	597	840	1084	722	832	3917	1326	1359	681	777	478	1305	3104	1170	651	1370	1811	575	711	943	374	1392	4145	1924	989	353	905	825	2088	1138	3170	915	2043	907	2417	657	1976	2823	536	2021	350	612	2484	1306	1153	1283	2959	1174	937	2855	1406	2043	1002	569	1819	1485	1110	1138	2937	1718	8784	5954	3186	2888	19730	9532	594	2460	971	961	17980	2918	1034	285	529	17680	1118	1657	455	395	1774	384	575	988	3112	1752	661	945	1460	8078	1742	3453	325	1479	1430	780	710	1915	356	1589	3466	686	817	2959	4778	897	11670	1559	1229	7877	1967	2855	2446	1664	1560	4284	1415	3350	2178	824	1271	1144	1844	573	7177	527	1824	352	5893	1059	705	2053	1018	302	399	7290	5297	1146	628	7438	1056	760	15650	2763	1640	3077	803	628	852	1053	2008	299	943	1151	1210	637	649	1055	2061	581	1211	3323	1711	1276	2952	752	1211	5075	1515	988	566	5809	3887	3337	1125	550	6477	797	1789	1099	1795	5833	761	615	539	1560	1176	910	470	1150	879	1295	662	769	140	2860	5249	843	664	937	6171	4192	2493	3022	5048	1261	1108	1041	898	806	916	901	177	2942	651	883	983	2132	8468	2640	884	1343	7272	805	1147	3677	847	686	949	1133	1944	872	3497
2020-10-24	337	757	1294	647	1625	1589	1411	501	2025	3975	5775	1457	1686	1373	1420	1370	2207	2020	20440	1370	5415	3181	936	8993	743	3192	808	16400	873	829	3526	653	1956	5064	670	2851	1256	791	1997	3038	5551	3933	961	2170	1013	1112	1403	724	2105	2902	1347	825	1264	5387	5146	1195	561	743	2137	1373	637	730	2055	488	11290	4774	786	750	3428	1192	1781	1043	621	3104	626	5770	1629	947	3372	4137	385	609	851	1103	746	840	3996	1347	1376	685	789	492	1339	3172	1192	664	1417	1862	587	717	945	381	1419	4217	2014	1006	357	913	836	2120	1155	3235	935	2094	922	2464	666	2006	2859	543	2070	355	618	2526	1318	1175	1314	3008	1197	950	2909	1420	2090	1011	574	1862	1510	1122	1145	2984	1754	8963	6116	3228	2961	20170	9622	600	2495	992	985	18440	2952	1047	291	538	18020	1152	1671	464	403	1801	389	584	998	3186	1776	673	959	1491	8231	1779	3504	334	1518	1503	794	728	1967	361	1606	3536	698	834	3002	4851	925	12160	1576	1252	8050	1997	2919	2469	1698	1613	4361	1431	3409	2237	838	1286	1180	1874	581	7344	537	1879	357	6046	1077	715	2129	1030	312	409	7464	5364	1161	634	7638	1081	773	16090	2804	1669	3146	815	641	865	1079	2060	306	951	1183	1232	644	665	1071	2115	588	1241	3376	1732	1289	2983	761	1228	5207	1540	1011	572	5929	4014	3392	1147	558	6611	808	1817	1122	1813	5965	776	622	552	1589	1197	922	476	1156	898	1324	671	787	143	2893	5362	852	673	948	6319	4287	2533	3075	5161	1288	1123	1060	911	821	932	911	182	3028	667	894	997	2170	8669	2688	899	1370	7402	814	1164	3735	859	691	963	1155	1995	887	3600
2020-10-25	339	767	1325	653	1651	1596	1431	511	2052	4021	5954	1481	1716	1388	1454	1412	2226	2038	20830	1395	5544	3278	956	9166	753	3278	820	16700	882	839	3564	664	1983	5246	677	2888	1276	807	2067	3106	5668	4041	988	2227	1047	1123	1426	731	2122	2993	1360	836	1281	5482	5243	1223	569	757	2188	1399	645	739	2075	500	11630	4896	799	759	3473	1210	1815	1050	633	3170	642	5913	1677	955	3435	4208	393	622	862	1123	770	850	4066	1373	1391	688	801	504	1374	3241	1213	671	1469	1912	600	723	948	388	1448	4291	2108	1022	360	920	847	2152	1171	3301	955	2132	936	2508	674	2042	2890	552	2119	361	623	2570	1329	1194	1345	3053	1220	962	2961	1434	2138	1020	579	1901	1533	1133	1153	3031	1791	9134	6284	3264	3044	20630	9723	606	2531	1012	1011	18970	2988	1060	296	544	18350	1188	1680	473	411	1828	393	594	1009	3244	1799	687	974	1523	8389	1816	3552	343	1551	1574	805	744	2021	366	1623	3597	710	855	3046	4921	955	12710	1593	1276	8224	2027	2975	2491	1734	1667	4446	1445	3469	2298	853	1300	1220	1913	588	7493	547	1941	360	6207	1093	725	2206	1041	320	420	7637	5421	1175	641	7910	1109	786	16540	2838	1692	3216	827	657	881	1105	2113	314	958	1213	1254	651	684	1089	2167	595	1271	3430	1758	1303	3011	770	1246	5322	1564	1034	578	6053	4136	3446	1166	566	6747	818	1845	1149	1831	6092	789	630	568	1616	1218	934	482	1161	916	1353	683	805	145	2933	5463	862	681	961	6485	4381	2570	3117	5269	1321	1137	1079	925	834	948	922	185	3118	684	906	1007	2204	8893	2736	910	1401	7536	821	1182	3786	868	697	976	1178	2046	901	3709

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-18 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-18