COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-20

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	--	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-08	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	09-16	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	10-07	04-22	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-28	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	04-15	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-01	10-06	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-27	--	10-08	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	--	05-04	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	10-08	10-06	--	--	--	--	--	04-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	04-08	--	--	--	--	04-06	--	--	--	04-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-08	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-07
Peak daily increment	5					22						29		24																										74												12								30			30									18									13		15						16	15			32							11	13						7					69					10								43	20						29		20	16				10				164											24		9							10		13						211			8						15						86	26	517						33								19			11						21					9					198															20							56																							14					21					6				15																							31											101
Days since peak	188					189						11		207																										15												12								14			34									204									11		186						13	181			14							175	162						188					16					209								111	14						170		186	182				14				14											176		12							207		181						23			14						169						23	12	14						174								11			182						11					14					14															15							25																							14					195					197				176																							12											13
Last total	322	724	1225	629	1544	1579	1364	465	1938	3753	5188	1360	1607	1336	1337	1235	2134	1972	19172	1289	5035	2877	889	8428	721	2853	760	15489	831	804	3381	639	1913	4415	657	2731	1168	747	1764	2791	5182	3603	911	1980	916	1092	1329	710	2056	2655	1308	786	1241	5081	4790	1123	544	703	1984	1288	604	716	1983	457	10005	4364	742	736	3306	1135	1646	1026	596	2994	581	5287	1513	920	3212	3913	357	576	823	1026	703	795	3752	1290	1336	675	766	471	1213	2954	1119	647	1280	1693	539	711	946	362	1317	3983	1705	951	349	918	810	2028	1121	3001	854	1927	909	2294	635	1871	2744	516	1910	340	610	2402	1296	1108	1226	2844	1138	914	2779	1381	1971	997	563	1724	1425	1082	1121	2906	1673	8313	5437	3065	2613	18262	9336	574	2388	933	905	16527	2859	997	275	502	16940	1083	1640	442	374	1735	365	538	969	2929	1713	632	950	1371	7639	1709	3335	300	1425	1294	760	684	1792	354	1607	3322	671	790	2899	4541	811	9659	1522	1176	7517	1898	2716	2413	1626	1461	4124	1386	3260	2052	781	1217	1061	1775	564	6713	501	1681	343	5558	1011	690	1819	973	291	368	6794	5110	1121	636	6914	1004	729	14574	2664	1584	2920	794	587	816	1030	1927	273	960	1083	1174	620	622	1016	1940	566	1189	3200	1669	1256	2902	744	1190	4769	1455	912	562	5580	3595	3276	1081	534	6170	771	1732	1025	1787	5591	735	605	503	1504	1130	893	462	1159	830	1232	641	724	135	2674	4991	817	642	912	5753	4004	2413	2918	4746	1168	1101	1004	855	775	878	885	169	2710	616	860	958	2011	8037	2553	861	1234	6967	778	1133	3536	839	696	922	1075	1805	849	3129
Last daily increment	3	10	42	13	52	16	34	10	57	78	176	25	50	25	46	44	34	48	454	25	168	81	35	251	16	110	16	402	13	22	55	23	77	164	9	47	18	25	63	63	180	117	45	54	39	30	34	24	18	121	29	6	36	117	91	44	17	21	80	26	9	9	18	13	266	115	10	24	58	25	56	14	16	101	16	225	60	9	110	111	5	13	17	31	33	14	121	36	25	8	29	29	33	88	33	21	50	20	8	18	8	14	27	105	65	18	8	28	19	41	42	57	18	55	31	64	6	56	59	11	57	4	7	78	35	27	38	72	26	21	86	26	61	21	5	50	41	17	12	93	60	238	145	78	81	464	157	10	36	31	21	362	70	9	4	7	443	76	30	13	3	44	2	8	18	89	42	11	32	32	166	66	78	7	59	79	16	24	54	9	49	90	22	28	62	71	18	223	35	24	249	31	78	42	56	63	111	24	88	76	11	12	46	72	9	218	6	59	7	201	20	17	67	15	7	7	239	151	21	11	180	29	12	396	56	46	72	18	17	23	47	64	10	18	34	16	12	22	18	75	7	60	66	30	29	64	15	29	118	38	28	12	188	128	107	26	5	137	7	26	26	35	183	19	16	10	50	17	14	8	18	19	39	9	21	5	47	169	8	15	21	192	125	46	85	117	41	22	27	18	21	23	13	6	67	21	22	35	55	348	47	16	20	119	10	32	95	29	22	22	25	52	21	88
Last week	19	65	234	71	290	68	156	48	241	401	1061	147	212	107	251	204	127	203	2303	136	884	518	171	1233	67	548	78	2043	79	99	311	88	273	974	70	257	134	108	336	338	808	653	173	286	206	97	197	107	142	530	139	55	124	597	585	192	57	78	374	174	56	65	137	61	1357	619	87	75	297	117	250	64	62	488	97	1124	264	55	499	559	29	88	63	121	156	70	603	175	113	57	108	95	181	469	144	79	251	156	65	56	41	48	213	462	382	83	22	82	105	229	145	361	104	292	118	318	42	216	284	53	247	33	52	307	124	96	163	384	129	75	387	98	307	94	29	258	198	89	53	404	249	1291	784	365	489	2664	707	41	206	155	137	2283	270	76	35	50	2173	241	140	48	38	199	35	52	71	443	164	66	120	186	742	265	437	30	260	372	82	112	276	35	192	404	111	114	283	429	127	1334	154	131	1106	165	379	197	273	297	533	123	407	392	82	97	258	283	53	1058	50	381	30	986	108	75	372	104	39	41	1204	675	102	68	1036	161	69	2126	244	215	425	80	89	84	215	322	37	98	140	117	76	96	84	378	34	253	314	184	118	310	75	125	713	205	181	55	845	713	541	128	51	708	60	185	144	163	789	87	65	58	274	132	79	40	78	94	193	44	124	12	381	743	45	65	96	1060	633	279	375	639	217	114	111	85	97	103	84	22	440	77	86	121	274	1476	291	99	158	784	81	139	477	108	64	112	140	313	80	538
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-10	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																					20							65																										40											73																								18																																																		23							81	80																																						75																																																																														31
Low between peaks																																																																																									0																																																		0

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-21 to 2020-10-27

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-20	322	724	1225	629	1544	1579	1364	465	1938	3753	5188	1360	1607	1336	1337	1235	2134	1972	19172	1289	5035	2877	889	8428	721	2853	760	15489	831	804	3381	639	1913	4415	657	2731	1168	747	1764	2791	5182	3603	911	1980	916	1092	1329	710	2056	2655	1308	786	1241	5081	4790	1123	544	703	1984	1288	604	716	1983	457	10005	4364	742	736	3306	1135	1646	1026	596	2994	581	5287	1513	920	3212	3913	357	576	823	1026	703	795	3752	1290	1336	675	766	471	1213	2954	1119	647	1280	1693	539	711	946	362	1317	3983	1705	951	349	918	810	2028	1121	3001	854	1927	909	2294	635	1871	2744	516	1910	340	610	2402	1296	1108	1226	2844	1138	914	2779	1381	1971	997	563	1724	1425	1082	1121	2906	1673	8313	5437	3065	2613	18262	9336	574	2388	933	905	16527	2859	997	275	502	16940	1083	1640	442	374	1735	365	538	969	2929	1713	632	950	1371	7639	1709	3335	300	1425	1294	760	684	1792	354	1607	3322	671	790	2899	4541	811	9659	1522	1176	7517	1898	2716	2413	1626	1461	4124	1386	3260	2052	781	1217	1061	1775	564	6713	501	1681	343	5558	1011	690	1819	973	291	368	6794	5110	1121	636	6914	1004	729	14574	2664	1584	2920	794	587	816	1030	1927	273	960	1083	1174	620	622	1016	1940	566	1189	3200	1669	1256	2902	744	1190	4769	1455	912	562	5580	3595	3276	1081	534	6170	771	1732	1025	1787	5591	735	605	503	1504	1130	893	462	1159	830	1232	641	724	135	2674	4991	817	642	912	5753	4004	2413	2918	4746	1168	1101	1004	855	775	878	885	169	2710	616	860	958	2011	8037	2553	861	1234	6967	778	1133	3536	839	696	922	1075	1805	849	3129
2020-10-21	325	734	1261	638	1612	1587	1392	474	1999	3835	5324	1386	1647	1352	1359	1303	2158	2008	19540	1313	5211	2898	925	8650	734	2997	788	15870	841	817	3432	654	1959	4590	666	2786	1168	752	1824	2857	5330	3714	947	2063	955	1096	1386	725	2065	2698	1329	796	1267	5230	4859	1157	557	719	2048	1310	604	723	2006	472	10420	4487	755	745	3356	1155	1697	1026	606	3126	594	5463	1582	927	3287	4019	363	582	833	1060	731	816	3854	1322	1352	681	789	521	1240	3026	1138	657	1344	1775	543	727	954	371	1343	4018	1745	964	352	932	823	2063	1146	3067	871	1984	929	2352	643	1938	2801	526	1960	345	613	2481	1319	1127	1283	2914	1168	928	2850	1396	2043	1012	567	1771	1458	1099	1130	2973	1721	8557	5572	3133	2653	18460	9530	582	2433	959	915	17270	2935	1009	280	510	17090	1139	1660	450	382	1772	367	549	981	3016	1742	665	974	1399	7808	1734	3408	306	1463	1415	773	705	1843	359	1663	3420	677	820	2953	4660	831	10590	1540	1207	7710	1929	2817	2440	1675	1552	4217	1412	3329	2121	785	1231	1110	1839	572	6895	509	1687	352	5761	1028	706	1878	981	297	376	6977	5257	1138	649	7043	1024	740	15000	2710	1629	2987	807	603	841	1068	1982	281	980	1133	1194	637	649	1033	2013	572	1237	3253	1695	1281	2947	755	1194	4940	1487	918	568	5725	3722	3387	1114	545	6239	788	1773	1043	1823	5760	767	616	514	1554	1138	905	469	1176	855	1292	659	747	138	2745	5170	821	652	932	6022	4111	2460	2986	4877	1217	1121	1021	896	795	897	897	174	2710	632	879	976	2067	8328	2586	871	1259	7103	785	1159	3609	845	705	941	1096	1846	856	3207
2020-10-22	328	743	1297	651	1663	1595	1427	483	2040	3905	5465	1412	1686	1367	1398	1333	2182	2040	19900	1336	5386	2950	960	8870	747	3109	806	16250	859	836	3482	667	1999	4728	676	2819	1171	767	1885	2922	5475	3825	981	2120	995	1107	1430	741	2073	2740	1349	807	1282	5330	4928	1191	568	735	2108	1330	608	730	2029	483	10650	4611	767	761	3404	1175	1748	1034	615	3226	606	5654	1628	933	3361	4129	368	588	842	1081	760	828	3958	1358	1366	687	811	558	1267	3147	1166	668	1389	1790	547	741	960	380	1369	4052	1786	977	356	945	835	2097	1168	3132	888	2035	948	2406	650	1979	2853	535	2010	349	621	2550	1340	1145	1311	2982	1190	941	2924	1411	2111	1026	572	1818	1499	1114	1138	3035	1769	8801	5691	3200	2719	18680	9650	590	2466	983	931	17470	2995	1020	286	518	17250	1191	1687	458	390	1808	368	561	993	3104	1768	677	996	1428	7975	1771	3481	312	1515	1482	786	726	1894	364	1714	3516	693	840	3006	4739	851	11000	1572	1237	7898	1960	2897	2465	1724	1628	4311	1437	3396	2189	790	1246	1159	1897	580	7074	518	1751	357	5933	1044	717	1938	995	303	384	7188	5387	1154	657	7187	1049	751	15430	2754	1672	3053	818	620	858	1107	2036	288	998	1159	1213	653	667	1050	2088	577	1283	3305	1727	1304	3000	765	1219	5058	1516	942	574	5869	3850	3486	1131	551	6304	793	1808	1062	1861	5896	781	627	526	1600	1147	917	476	1190	879	1334	667	765	140	2820	5306	824	662	949	6208	4215	2499	3052	4979	1261	1140	1038	909	814	917	910	179	2736	649	896	995	2118	8545	2617	887	1284	7234	792	1189	3707	861	716	959	1118	1888	863	3283
2020-10-23	331	753	1334	662	1698	1603	1455	492	2089	3973	5612	1438	1725	1383	1428	1383	2205	2072	20270	1361	5566	3005	993	9100	759	3222	819	16600	868	851	3533	681	2039	4860	685	2858	1181	779	1949	2987	5622	3940	1018	2167	1036	1118	1474	756	2081	2784	1367	817	1304	5420	4999	1226	579	752	2169	1351	613	737	2052	491	10870	4738	780	771	3453	1195	1799	1040	624	3332	619	5840	1670	940	3435	4223	374	595	851	1102	790	836	4056	1384	1381	693	834	594	1295	3249	1189	681	1427	1790	551	755	969	386	1397	4085	1827	990	359	958	847	2132	1189	3197	905	2088	967	2452	657	2019	2899	545	2061	354	627	2609	1359	1163	1341	3052	1209	953	3006	1425	2182	1040	576	1865	1528	1133	1147	3097	1817	9033	5786	3267	2780	18870	9770	598	2503	1006	949	17550	3051	1032	291	525	17380	1243	1713	467	398	1845	371	572	1005	3185	1794	695	1019	1456	8140	1813	3556	318	1556	1540	798	748	1946	368	1767	3613	713	857	3060	4809	872	11330	1595	1267	8092	1992	2976	2490	1775	1708	4408	1464	3464	2259	794	1260	1210	1936	588	7257	526	1793	360	6113	1060	729	2000	1008	309	392	7359	5502	1172	663	7338	1074	762	15870	2799	1717	3121	830	635	868	1147	2092	295	1017	1180	1233	669	685	1066	2152	582	1330	3357	1756	1328	3050	775	1236	5168	1547	974	580	6017	3982	3606	1151	557	6364	806	1836	1080	1898	6017	792	640	537	1652	1155	929	484	1205	904	1375	675	775	143	2894	5403	827	671	970	6366	4324	2548	3120	5067	1305	1159	1056	924	834	936	924	183	2756	665	911	1020	2169	8745	2649	900	1309	7368	799	1214	3788	880	727	976	1139	1930	868	3360
2020-10-24	334	762	1372	679	1728	1610	1478	502	2117	4012	5762	1463	1764	1399	1461	1411	2228	2101	20630	1385	5746	3060	1024	9320	772	3318	835	16930	873	863	3583	695	2076	4986	695	2882	1185	789	2012	3052	5769	4056	1055	2199	1079	1128	1500	764	2088	2828	1383	827	1316	5516	5069	1260	589	768	2227	1370	614	743	2074	500	10950	4866	793	780	3501	1215	1851	1046	633	3434	631	6030	1709	945	3509	4296	379	604	859	1109	821	844	4142	1400	1396	698	857	629	1322	3322	1211	687	1466	1790	555	768	974	394	1424	4117	1869	1002	362	970	859	2166	1209	3261	922	2128	984	2474	664	2038	2935	555	2111	359	630	2654	1377	1181	1357	3122	1229	965	3067	1439	2253	1054	580	1913	1548	1144	1155	3155	1865	9239	5865	3334	2819	19050	9880	606	2532	1029	968	17550	3101	1043	296	533	17500	1293	1729	474	405	1881	373	583	1016	3264	1819	703	1040	1484	8304	1850	3631	323	1590	1609	811	770	1998	373	1818	3711	726	866	3113	4869	892	11690	1619	1296	8283	2024	3029	2514	1825	1770	4505	1490	3532	2329	799	1274	1263	1969	596	7440	534	1829	362	6278	1077	740	2062	1020	315	400	7520	5594	1182	670	7457	1099	773	16310	2843	1761	3188	841	651	868	1187	2148	303	1035	1198	1252	684	700	1083	2195	588	1375	3408	1777	1352	3072	785	1249	5273	1575	983	587	6165	4115	3702	1167	564	6424	816	1858	1098	1930	6129	804	648	548	1684	1163	941	491	1218	929	1407	679	797	145	2939	5532	830	681	983	6513	4431	2580	3186	5158	1340	1179	1073	929	853	956	937	188	2783	681	930	1031	2207	8874	2668	908	1334	7497	806	1228	3851	895	739	993	1161	1973	873	3435
2020-10-25	337	771	1410	687	1748	1617	1506	511	2153	4047	5916	1488	1804	1414	1487	1438	2251	2130	21000	1409	5931	3116	1049	9550	784	3363	850	17180	879	875	3634	709	2114	5070	704	2918	1189	801	2078	3117	5920	4174	1093	2229	1123	1138	1522	776	2094	2872	1395	836	1323	5598	5140	1295	600	784	2287	1389	617	749	2096	501	11100	4998	805	791	3550	1235	1905	1055	641	3538	643	6177	1744	951	3585	4370	385	608	868	1115	853	846	4201	1424	1410	704	881	655	1349	3398	1237	695	1495	1790	560	781	975	400	1451	4150	1913	1014	365	982	871	2201	1228	3326	939	2169	1002	2505	671	2070	2968	564	2163	363	632	2702	1395	1199	1380	3193	1244	977	3115	1452	2325	1067	584	1962	1557	1155	1163	3213	1914	9433	5949	3402	2853	19240	9970	615	2550	1052	986	17550	3145	1054	301	541	17620	1344	1739	482	412	1918	375	595	1028	3318	1842	707	1061	1513	8470	1894	3708	329	1629	1635	824	793	2052	377	1871	3811	739	880	3166	4918	912	12080	1641	1327	8479	2056	3068	2538	1877	1820	4604	1516	3601	2402	803	1289	1318	2001	604	7628	542	1860	365	6411	1093	750	2127	1028	321	408	7625	5672	1194	672	7576	1125	784	16770	2888	1807	3257	853	667	874	1229	2206	310	1053	1218	1270	700	710	1100	2261	593	1421	3459	1796	1376	3109	795	1257	5354	1604	1003	594	6317	4253	3791	1173	565	6484	818	1876	1117	1952	6236	810	656	560	1713	1172	953	498	1232	954	1439	680	805	147	2993	5607	833	691	994	6672	4541	2614	3254	5211	1379	1198	1091	931	873	976	951	192	2783	697	945	1042	2243	8981	2683	912	1359	7628	813	1241	3896	905	750	1010	1183	2017	879	3512
2020-10-26	339	781	1450	701	1811	1624	1545	521	2195	4136	6075	1514	1845	1430	1541	1486	2274	2159	21370	1434	6124	3174	1103	9790	797	3484	866	17650	887	896	3686	723	2151	5237	714	2972	1198	825	2147	3182	6076	4297	1132	2290	1169	1147	1551	803	2100	2917	1420	846	1341	5737	5212	1331	610	801	2347	1409	623	755	2119	514	11360	5133	818	806	3600	1255	1960	1072	650	3646	655	6431	1805	956	3662	4514	390	622	877	1134	886	860	4327	1468	1425	709	905	716	1377	3500	1270	710	1563	1790	564	794	984	410	1480	4183	1957	1027	369	994	883	2237	1248	3392	956	2225	1020	2574	678	2114	3026	574	2216	368	644	2779	1413	1217	1421	3266	1275	988	3199	1466	2400	1081	587	2013	1589	1167	1171	3271	1965	9724	6081	3472	2925	19420	10120	623	2595	1075	1005	17550	3196	1065	305	548	17750	1397	1772	490	420	1956	378	607	1040	3403	1866	721	1082	1541	8638	1957	3787	334	1692	1736	837	816	2107	381	1926	3915	759	909	3221	5001	933	12490	1674	1358	8679	2089	3179	2562	1931	1891	4706	1543	3672	2477	807	1303	1375	2054	612	7820	550	1943	371	6660	1110	764	2193	1046	327	416	7870	5792	1220	689	7765	1151	795	17240	2934	1853	3328	864	683	888	1273	2266	317	1071	1252	1289	715	732	1117	2357	598	1469	3511	1830	1401	3159	806	1275	5508	1633	1040	600	6472	4396	3845	1194	578	6545	833	1917	1136	2014	6437	825	670	571	1779	1181	966	506	1246	980	1492	688	831	150	3082	5755	836	701	1013	6930	4654	2680	3324	5344	1422	1218	1110	939	894	996	965	197	2837	713	960	1063	2299	9314	2719	927	1384	7759	820	1276	3997	930	762	1027	1205	2062	884	3590
2020-10-27	342	790	1492	710	1851	1631	1576	530	2237	4218	6238	1540	1886	1446	1588	1536	2298	2187	21760	1459	6323	3232	1139	10030	810	3608	882	18060	898	918	3738	737	2190	5467	724	3022	1217	856	2217	3249	6236	4423	1173	2354	1217	1157	1576	824	2106	2962	1441	856	1368	5862	5286	1369	620	819	2409	1428	632	761	2142	527	11680	5273	831	825	3650	1276	2017	1083	659	3758	667	6688	1877	962	3741	4633	396	635	885	1162	921	870	4426	1504	1439	714	930	740	1404	3584	1302	724	1622	1790	569	807	991	425	1508	4216	2003	1039	372	1007	895	2273	1268	3458	973	2290	1038	2643	685	2177	3088	585	2270	373	649	2852	1431	1235	1470	3340	1304	999	3284	1480	2478	1095	591	2064	1625	1180	1179	3329	2018	9988	6234	3543	3046	19610	10260	631	2632	1099	1024	17620	3257	1077	310	556	17870	1453	1800	498	427	1995	380	619	1051	3505	1889	732	1104	1571	8808	2019	3867	340	1751	1850	850	840	2164	385	1981	4021	777	933	3277	5080	954	12780	1703	1390	8885	2122	3264	2586	1986	1960	4810	1571	3744	2554	811	1318	1436	2123	620	8018	559	2015	378	6877	1126	780	2262	1064	334	424	8113	5913	1239	699	7946	1178	806	17720	2980	1901	3400	875	699	907	1318	2327	324	1089	1290	1309	730	758	1135	2448	604	1517	3563	1860	1426	3201	816	1300	5616	1662	1072	607	6632	4544	3916	1215	587	6607	843	1949	1156	2037	6628	844	683	582	1826	1189	978	513	1260	1006	1539	699	860	152	3140	5912	838	711	1033	7096	4771	2727	3395	5476	1463	1238	1128	956	915	1017	979	202	2918	730	980	1089	2357	9679	2766	940	1410	7892	827	1308	4070	956	773	1044	1228	2109	890	3669

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-21 to 2020-10-27

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-20	322	724	1225	629	1544	1579	1364	465	1938	3753	5188	1360	1607	1336	1337	1235	2134	1972	19172	1289	5035	2877	889	8428	721	2853	760	15489	831	804	3381	639	1913	4415	657	2731	1168	747	1764	2791	5182	3603	911	1980	916	1092	1329	710	2056	2655	1308	786	1241	5081	4790	1123	544	703	1984	1288	604	716	1983	457	10005	4364	742	736	3306	1135	1646	1026	596	2994	581	5287	1513	920	3212	3913	357	576	823	1026	703	795	3752	1290	1336	675	766	471	1213	2954	1119	647	1280	1693	539	711	946	362	1317	3983	1705	951	349	918	810	2028	1121	3001	854	1927	909	2294	635	1871	2744	516	1910	340	610	2402	1296	1108	1226	2844	1138	914	2779	1381	1971	997	563	1724	1425	1082	1121	2906	1673	8313	5437	3065	2613	18262	9336	574	2388	933	905	16527	2859	997	275	502	16940	1083	1640	442	374	1735	365	538	969	2929	1713	632	950	1371	7639	1709	3335	300	1425	1294	760	684	1792	354	1607	3322	671	790	2899	4541	811	9659	1522	1176	7517	1898	2716	2413	1626	1461	4124	1386	3260	2052	781	1217	1061	1775	564	6713	501	1681	343	5558	1011	690	1819	973	291	368	6794	5110	1121	636	6914	1004	729	14574	2664	1584	2920	794	587	816	1030	1927	273	960	1083	1174	620	622	1016	1940	566	1189	3200	1669	1256	2902	744	1190	4769	1455	912	562	5580	3595	3276	1081	534	6170	771	1732	1025	1787	5591	735	605	503	1504	1130	893	462	1159	830	1232	641	724	135	2674	4991	817	642	912	5753	4004	2413	2918	4746	1168	1101	1004	855	775	878	885	169	2710	616	860	958	2011	8037	2553	861	1234	6967	778	1133	3536	839	696	922	1075	1805	849	3129
2020-10-21	326	734	1269	641	1610	1590	1396	474	2000	3836	5401	1384	1649	1353	1382	1286	2159	2012	19610	1316	5209	2961	923	8662	736	2983	782	15870	845	821	3441	659	1967	4626	669	2783	1189	767	1834	2870	5327	3731	953	2039	957	1108	1365	731	2079	2766	1333	797	1264	5198	4897	1160	555	720	2048	1315	613	727	2008	468	10310	4482	756	750	3361	1158	1701	1040	608	3103	600	5522	1573	929	3309	4033	362	589	834	1052	736	808	3861	1327	1354	684	786	498	1243	3031	1144	663	1345	1744	550	722	953	371	1354	4071	1783	966	353	935	825	2070	1147	3064	872	1982	933	2363	643	1923	2791	525	1961	346	619	2470	1317	1127	1263	2918	1163	929	2850	1398	2032	1014	568	1771	1463	1097	1129	2986	1723	8570	5584	3141	2711	18720	9500	583	2430	962	929	17060	2911	1009	280	509	17370	1138	1670	453	381	1774	370	546	983	3011	1746	646	978	1405	7763	1755	3411	306	1478	1387	777	705	1845	361	1648	3402	689	818	2956	4625	831	9900	1547	1201	7737	1931	2778	2443	1685	1523	4228	1415	3334	2132	798	1233	1110	1842	573	6932	509	1747	350	5773	1029	707	1892	996	298	376	7025	5247	1143	649	7106	1035	741	14980	2711	1622	2999	809	605	837	1076	1989	283	979	1112	1195	632	642	1033	2015	571	1243	3254	1705	1287	2964	756	1207	4904	1493	942	571	5738	3744	3372	1113	543	6303	783	1769	1051	1817	5760	759	618	513	1555	1153	908	470	1174	848	1269	651	748	138	2744	5141	825	652	930	5975	4116	2467	3001	4870	1204	1124	1025	876	793	899	903	174	2789	633	871	982	2069	8335	2608	877	1261	7099	795	1160	3623	856	708	944	1101	1867	864	3227
2020-10-22	329	743	1306	651	1663	1598	1426	483	2038	3905	5590	1409	1682	1368	1423	1323	2180	2042	20000	1339	5365	3050	951	8869	747	3082	797	16220	859	838	3492	672	2002	4830	678	2826	1210	785	1888	2928	5460	3844	987	2089	995	1119	1395	746	2099	2850	1350	809	1281	5314	4992	1191	564	733	2112	1340	621	736	2030	480	10580	4600	768	763	3405	1177	1748	1048	617	3191	617	5710	1626	939	3382	4133	370	603	843	1073	761	820	3960	1357	1369	691	801	515	1274	3105	1167	673	1389	1782	561	729	958	379	1388	4145	1861	979	357	946	838	2106	1165	3125	891	2033	949	2420	651	1962	2834	536	2011	351	626	2521	1334	1144	1292	2989	1187	941	2908	1412	2080	1026	573	1816	1499	1111	1136	3041	1764	8812	5730	3203	2807	19170	9620	591	2461	986	954	17500	2952	1023	286	518	17760	1179	1692	461	388	1806	376	555	994	3096	1773	655	998	1439	7898	1792	3486	313	1524	1473	792	725	1897	366	1678	3471	703	837	3000	4701	856	10190	1577	1226	7924	1958	2847	2469	1731	1576	4319	1438	3396	2199	812	1252	1156	1886	581	7136	518	1824	356	5946	1047	719	1980	1014	306	383	7246	5361	1159	660	7288	1064	753	15370	2752	1656	3072	820	621	856	1111	2043	291	992	1139	1213	644	659	1046	2079	579	1285	3302	1738	1306	3009	766	1229	5032	1527	975	578	5885	3891	3449	1135	552	6428	792	1803	1078	1841	5897	776	629	523	1597	1178	923	476	1183	868	1303	661	770	140	2817	5261	833	662	944	6163	4215	2510	3067	4989	1240	1141	1044	891	808	917	915	180	2871	649	885	999	2120	8574	2654	893	1291	7234	805	1185	3708	869	716	960	1129	1921	876	3329
2020-10-23	332	753	1343	661	1703	1605	1450	492	2083	3968	5776	1433	1717	1386	1462	1371	2200	2064	20400	1362	5518	3140	979	9080	760	3184	810	16540	870	852	3545	684	2036	5032	688	2870	1235	802	1948	2990	5590	3958	1022	2136	1034	1130	1427	760	2122	2940	1366	820	1300	5425	5093	1222	572	746	2168	1366	630	745	2054	489	10830	4717	781	771	3454	1194	1793	1055	626	3281	636	5892	1676	948	3462	4225	377	617	851	1093	787	830	4049	1384	1385	698	818	532	1305	3178	1189	684	1434	1821	573	735	964	386	1428	4222	1935	994	360	956	850	2141	1184	3186	910	2084	965	2476	659	2000	2877	545	2060	357	633	2567	1350	1161	1315	3056	1205	950	2968	1426	2131	1038	577	1861	1530	1126	1144	3097	1805	9028	5868	3273	2902	19590	9730	598	2495	1009	979	17930	2992	1035	292	527	18160	1222	1714	470	395	1837	382	563	1005	3174	1800	667	1017	1475	8024	1830	3565	320	1564	1558	804	744	1950	370	1708	3538	717	851	3044	4772	881	10470	1597	1252	8112	1985	2916	2490	1780	1632	4405	1461	3457	2269	826	1268	1205	1937	589	7319	527	1888	359	6118	1066	731	2062	1030	312	391	7456	5463	1177	669	7476	1092	765	15760	2793	1688	3151	832	637	868	1145	2098	298	1005	1157	1232	656	677	1061	2143	584	1324	3352	1768	1324	3053	776	1244	5145	1560	1014	585	6031	4022	3532	1160	562	6554	807	1836	1105	1863	6025	792	639	533	1644	1201	938	483	1194	886	1338	671	789	142	2885	5364	841	671	959	6312	4316	2560	3131	5097	1280	1159	1062	907	824	936	930	183	2947	665	896	1020	2169	8797	2703	907	1319	7352	817	1206	3784	887	724	975	1156	1979	888	3430
2020-10-24	335	762	1380	673	1742	1612	1472	500	2112	4010	5967	1457	1750	1400	1504	1403	2218	2086	20790	1384	5673	3234	1003	9285	770	3278	826	16860	879	864	3590	697	2067	5244	696	2913	1251	817	2007	3046	5709	4070	1052	2181	1073	1140	1452	771	2142	3024	1381	830	1316	5531	5186	1255	578	760	2221	1391	638	754	2076	498	11050	4834	794	780	3497	1212	1835	1063	636	3373	652	6070	1726	957	3537	4301	385	631	860	1107	812	841	4134	1406	1399	702	833	548	1336	3248	1211	692	1476	1860	585	742	969	394	1458	4298	2011	1008	364	965	861	2175	1200	3247	929	2130	981	2514	667	2022	2904	554	2110	363	638	2605	1363	1178	1334	3114	1225	959	3026	1440	2181	1049	582	1906	1560	1139	1152	3152	1847	9231	5997	3335	2972	19970	9830	606	2524	1032	1003	18340	3031	1048	297	534	18570	1265	1729	478	402	1866	389	571	1015	3253	1827	677	1036	1501	8141	1867	3629	327	1603	1644	816	765	2005	375	1738	3598	731	863	3090	4840	906	10760	1618	1277	8295	2011	2964	2510	1825	1691	4492	1484	3519	2329	838	1282	1254	1962	596	7480	536	1951	362	6292	1084	742	2138	1046	318	398	7657	5550	1187	678	7651	1120	777	16130	2834	1719	3213	843	652	878	1178	2154	304	1018	1181	1251	665	695	1074	2202	588	1363	3401	1793	1340	3079	786	1256	5264	1592	1031	592	6176	4138	3609	1179	569	6683	816	1863	1128	1883	6153	807	648	542	1683	1223	953	490	1204	906	1368	681	813	145	2921	5468	847	680	972	6447	4415	2595	3180	5210	1311	1175	1080	916	840	956	938	188	3018	681	909	1034	2206	9023	2742	918	1347	7467	826	1219	3853	901	731	990	1181	2028	901	3522
2020-10-25	338	771	1416	679	1774	1620	1497	510	2145	4052	6157	1481	1783	1414	1544	1439	2238	2107	21180	1405	5821	3330	1025	9468	780	3348	839	17160	887	875	3634	710	2101	5428	705	2958	1267	835	2057	3107	5835	4189	1083	2226	1112	1151	1478	782	2161	3109	1399	840	1332	5643	5277	1288	586	773	2278	1417	645	763	2097	506	11250	4952	807	789	3539	1226	1877	1071	645	3465	667	6235	1779	966	3604	4376	393	644	871	1123	838	851	4210	1432	1414	707	848	559	1368	3320	1235	699	1517	1901	597	749	973	401	1489	4375	2093	1021	367	978	871	2208	1220	3309	948	2175	994	2559	676	2053	2933	564	2163	369	643	2638	1376	1196	1357	3177	1244	970	3083	1455	2233	1061	586	1951	1583	1152	1159	3206	1890	9448	6131	3385	3030	20310	9950	613	2550	1055	1028	18740	3069	1060	302	542	19000	1309	1737	487	409	1896	395	579	1026	3317	1854	689	1054	1523	8263	1909	3690	334	1640	1730	831	784	2061	379	1768	3663	745	878	3132	4905	933	11070	1638	1304	8478	2039	3018	2536	1872	1739	4585	1507	3581	2392	849	1299	1303	1999	604	7635	546	2014	366	6461	1103	753	2221	1057	328	406	7847	5615	1199	687	7828	1149	791	16540	2877	1745	3291	854	669	886	1210	2212	312	1031	1199	1270	674	712	1088	2258	595	1400	3451	1820	1356	3112	795	1270	5382	1623	1053	599	6324	4257	3680	1193	578	6815	825	1889	1155	1897	6273	821	657	556	1715	1243	969	497	1212	925	1395	690	834	147	2965	5587	855	689	983	6624	4513	2632	3227	5316	1345	1191	1097	929	855	976	949	192	3083	698	920	1046	2244	9219	2781	929	1376	7594	836	1229	3911	912	739	1004	1208	2080	913	3617
2020-10-26	341	781	1455	688	1830	1627	1528	519	2189	4116	6394	1511	1818	1430	1592	1483	2259	2136	21620	1429	6029	3430	1065	9706	792	3449	853	17560	896	891	3683	725	2144	5664	713	3007	1290	856	2124	3183	6005	4325	1119	2272	1155	1161	1501	802	2181	3219	1421	852	1353	5768	5387	1322	595	787	2348	1443	655	772	2121	519	11480	5081	820	801	3586	1248	1929	1082	654	3568	689	6453	1839	975	3683	4490	401	664	883	1150	865	862	4323	1468	1430	714	867	580	1402	3398	1261	712	1574	1944	610	758	977	410	1533	4454	2183	1034	371	990	883	2244	1239	3372	968	2228	1015	2624	684	2089	2980	574	2220	374	651	2691	1392	1214	1395	3245	1270	979	3146	1469	2286	1072	590	1997	1614	1166	1168	3261	1934	9712	6299	3441	3110	20680	10060	622	2589	1079	1055	19230	3109	1074	309	551	19440	1356	1759	496	417	1932	402	587	1038	3397	1885	700	1077	1558	8432	1953	3776	341	1686	1837	843	803	2119	383	1798	3750	761	903	3177	4987	960	11540	1665	1331	8695	2067	3121	2563	1926	1787	4696	1529	3644	2459	863	1318	1360	2049	612	7893	555	2101	371	6684	1122	767	2293	1077	337	415	8097	5724	1223	698	8043	1186	804	16970	2920	1776	3371	866	686	898	1251	2272	318	1044	1225	1289	685	728	1103	2328	603	1439	3502	1850	1377	3153	805	1286	5549	1658	1092	606	6478	4372	3751	1216	592	6951	838	1924	1183	1922	6434	841	667	568	1766	1266	984	504	1223	946	1435	701	856	150	3045	5701	862	699	995	6892	4623	2685	3297	5465	1389	1209	1116	942	873	996	972	198	3177	715	934	1062	2294	9459	2834	943	1409	7763	849	1251	3991	931	748	1020	1237	2140	926	3742
2020-10-27	344	791	1497	696	1878	1634	1557	529	2226	4189	6619	1537	1854	1450	1637	1534	2281	2162	22050	1452	6204	3534	1096	9929	804	3564	867	17950	906	907	3735	736	2194	6001	722	3055	1318	880	2193	3254	6154	4458	1160	2330	1200	1172	1530	816	2205	3317	1443	863	1381	5901	5493	1358	603	801	2414	1470	663	781	2147	532	11800	5221	833	812	3632	1269	1979	1090	664	3672	710	6675	1908	985	3759	4593	410	682	894	1178	892	874	4416	1498	1447	717	894	597	1436	3475	1286	723	1633	1989	624	767	983	421	1570	4547	2277	1049	374	1001	895	2281	1258	3435	988	2286	1032	2692	692	2152	3033	585	2276	380	656	2737	1408	1232	1442	3317	1297	991	3211	1484	2341	1084	595	2048	1651	1180	1177	3319	1979	9970	6475	3505	3230	21240	10180	632	2625	1104	1083	19730	3149	1086	315	559	19900	1405	1777	505	424	1967	409	596	1049	3499	1914	712	1098	1601	8600	1996	3853	348	1733	1956	858	826	2179	390	1829	3837	776	921	3224	5072	988	12010	1688	1358	8908	2096	3197	2586	1981	1846	4805	1552	3708	2527	879	1335	1417	2108	620	8143	565	2184	378	6896	1142	781	2398	1095	346	424	8353	5833	1238	709	8252	1219	817	17410	2964	1813	3456	878	705	921	1287	2333	329	1057	1260	1309	694	750	1121	2400	614	1483	3554	1880	1395	3186	815	1302	5702	1693	1126	614	6653	4524	3822	1239	605	7091	852	1960	1211	1942	6597	860	677	581	1813	1296	1000	513	1231	970	1489	712	883	153	3101	5825	869	709	1009	7100	4731	2732	3366	5606	1432	1226	1137	964	891	1017	984	206	3293	733	951	1079	2348	9756	2893	956	1441	7921	861	1275	4068	949	756	1033	1265	2203	939	3852

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-20 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-20