COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-27

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	10-15	--	10-09	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-15	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-01	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	10-13	--	--	10-14	--	--	10-06	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-13	--	--	10-09	--	04-17	10-04	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-22	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	09-29	10-13	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	10-16	--	--	--	10-13	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	04-21	--	10-14	05-03	04-10	--	--	--	10-03	--	10-13	09-30	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	10-15	--	09-21	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	04-23	--	10-14	--	--	--	09-27	09-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	10-15	10-14	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-13	09-25	09-30	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	04-22	10-12	--	10-13	--	10-15	09-22	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-14	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	10-08	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	04-27	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-07
Peak daily increment						22				86		28										110				117				77	61								59	70	158							18										15	71			10			261	112												11			7		15	22					22									78			13				78						29	69	29			64					52				27	23						29			16		39	18	23				152		86	472						472			6		421						10	10		76				64	216									15								438				30					111		88	66				46				74					67	19	7	8					184			393						16						20	18	18		68		94	56						119					122				131	12							19		21				18						148		15					79																			139										91
Days since peak						194				12		18										14				14				12	13								15	26	12							16										13	14			13			21	13												167			18		193	23					12									35			169				14						15	28	14			14					11				14	12						177			189		13	177	200				24		14	27						29			12		36						214	187		13				30	32									176								27				27					15		12	13				13				14					14	14	32	27					23			28						29						30	188	15		14		12	35						15					12				13	12							13		19				13						14		183					14																			16										20
Last total	372	832	1571	764	1950	1657	1598	554	2243	4368	6451	1523	1884	1500	1744	1707	2320	2310	22333	1602	6182	3601	1181	10051	825	3709	895	18204	915	1066	3809	790	2420	6354	748	3167	1369	920	2137	3132	6207	4491	1120	2297	1270	1241	1591	793	2298	3547	1483	885	1482	5944	5638	1511	680	801	2422	1547	706	778	2298	551	11416	5119	839	907	3797	1297	1949	1163	695	3912	711	7098	1947	994	4113	4656	392	701	930	1181	982	927	4702	1625	1472	773	974	559	1368	3480	1307	749	1673	1880	697	790	1018	434	1634	4756	2191	1093	454	1023	969	2375	1301	3411	1039	2344	1068	2709	717	2262	3106	609	2208	392	744	2858	1472	1279	1507	3424	1350	1011	3285	1462	2387	1126	620	2088	1647	1187	1232	3790	2011	10203	6159	3568	3052	21587	10582	668	2733	1185	1190	18640	3235	1155	315	592	19685	1478	1937	524	436	2060	418	590	1112	3404	2021	754	1130	1671	8583	2108	3937	360	1804	1898	876	843	2163	379	1943	3930	863	974	3280	5173	963	11091	1783	1358	9204	2097	3132	2698	2046	1908	4805	1590	3840	2424	945	1365	1329	2073	653	8023	581	2082	386	6957	1178	835	2237	1093	327	414	8381	6163	1280	770	7896	1197	836	17162	3159	1853	3442	910	732	921	1435	2673	347	1125	1281	1320	686	732	1178	2385	663	1645	3540	2057	1424	3347	870	1326	5545	1823	1181	665	6897	4420	4102	1270	634	7069	855	1992	1257	2115	6826	982	687	620	1916	1232	1025	527	1352	935	1531	742	932	169	3288	5999	885	706	1028	7320	4993	2862	3417	5681	1503	1251	1167	972	893	1017	1029	209	3189	766	996	1136	2423	10315	3053	1036	1461	7858	903	1286	4236	998	780	1078	1251	2304	984	3601
Last daily increment	10	13	59	20	51	10	41	9	30	73	186	23	40	27	68	92	24	50	426	43	163	84	52	230	14	134	12	449	13	4	68	38	69	294	18	56	33	23	41	42	153	126	37	44	42	15	31	8	28	90	37	21	24	110	137	69	15	9	76	18	13	14	45	15	197	92	14	20	69	18	44	20	14	127	18	252	69	9	168	91	4	19	12	23	43	19	133	47	17	17	32	20	17	75	33	11	51	23	39	15	13	10	40	100	60	24	21	17	17	43	29	64	31	53	26	42	13	55	53	15	48	6	25	63	24	29	41	99	38	13	57	18	56	15	11	47	25	11	18	142	44	307	93	74	55	506	183	12	45	35	28	287	61	31	7	16	414	57	64	6	9	53	8	6	25	55	38	21	19	68	121	81	74	16	55	75	18	28	76	3	61	84	26	22	53	93	14	176	40	28	261	25	57	51	70	79	94	32	75	42	20	22	52	43	11	196	12	36	7	220	24	17	42	15	3	10	234	154	34	25	120	29	19	314	108	51	93	14	26	15	77	129	15	22	21	26	7	8	30	55	8	61	54	73	19	59	22	22	121	71	37	5	197	87	122	25	16	124	13	32	43	60	205	42	14	19	65	16	10	11	39	11	29	18	36	10	90	119	8	10	16	242	146	63	82	142	58	20	27	10	18	18	15	7	53	13	14	19	71	361	58	25	36	115	20	21	132	25	11	23	44	53	24	52
Last week	41	88	282	105	315	59	184	73	243	494	983	135	229	118	336	354	150	273	2510	273	925	498	245	1331	87	675	99	2299	69	229	336	129	402	1548	69	352	161	146	295	261	852	683	169	253	289	116	209	58	198	736	137	86	171	703	664	310	114	73	352	211	86	52	249	74	1114	599	80	139	393	124	231	110	73	754	106	1425	342	60	762	608	28	100	79	122	233	107	775	285	99	84	156	68	132	427	154	88	325	133	136	64	61	63	218	617	384	103	88	85	140	288	146	325	140	336	138	324	65	333	293	80	235	47	102	389	135	135	224	472	180	83	406	67	346	108	46	288	164	84	96	733	253	1561	569	406	328	2696	1042	75	274	211	254	1662	325	129	31	76	2217	329	252	62	49	266	43	39	121	348	262	105	145	251	766	344	511	56	315	506	95	129	318	22	295	489	164	166	298	520	123	1108	223	153	1376	156	325	231	331	361	534	165	452	286	126	117	211	244	66	1074	66	319	38	1148	139	124	334	92	30	40	1302	865	128	113	773	158	87	1971	419	223	418	96	120	84	339	599	65	138	162	115	50	81	123	341	72	403	269	322	140	337	100	108	629	292	233	86	1101	640	707	150	80	739	68	225	201	269	1011	215	68	87	339	82	109	54	167	79	234	85	158	28	462	796	56	44	90	1238	804	367	391	770	287	117	130	92	90	119	114	30	380	124	107	133	330	1861	398	141	178	692	104	122	555	128	72	124	141	348	108	361
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																					20							65																																					68																																																												43																					75	79																																						75																																																																														31
Low between peaks																																																																	1																																																												1																					6

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-28 to 2020-11-03

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-27	372	832	1571	764	1950	1657	1598	554	2243	4368	6451	1523	1884	1500	1744	1707	2320	2310	22333	1602	6182	3601	1181	10051	825	3709	895	18204	915	1066	3809	790	2420	6354	748	3167	1369	920	2137	3132	6207	4491	1120	2297	1270	1241	1591	793	2298	3547	1483	885	1482	5944	5638	1511	680	801	2422	1547	706	778	2298	551	11416	5119	839	907	3797	1297	1949	1163	695	3912	711	7098	1947	994	4113	4656	392	701	930	1181	982	927	4702	1625	1472	773	974	559	1368	3480	1307	749	1673	1880	697	790	1018	434	1634	4756	2191	1093	454	1023	969	2375	1301	3411	1039	2344	1068	2709	717	2262	3106	609	2208	392	744	2858	1472	1279	1507	3424	1350	1011	3285	1462	2387	1126	620	2088	1647	1187	1232	3790	2011	10203	6159	3568	3052	21587	10582	668	2733	1185	1190	18640	3235	1155	315	592	19685	1478	1937	524	436	2060	418	590	1112	3404	2021	754	1130	1671	8583	2108	3937	360	1804	1898	876	843	2163	379	1943	3930	863	974	3280	5173	963	11091	1783	1358	9204	2097	3132	2698	2046	1908	4805	1590	3840	2424	945	1365	1329	2073	653	8023	581	2082	386	6957	1178	835	2237	1093	327	414	8381	6163	1280	770	7896	1197	836	17162	3159	1853	3442	910	732	921	1435	2673	347	1125	1281	1320	686	732	1178	2385	663	1645	3540	2057	1424	3347	870	1326	5545	1823	1181	665	6897	4420	4102	1270	634	7069	855	1992	1257	2115	6826	982	687	620	1916	1232	1025	527	1352	935	1531	742	932	169	3288	5999	885	706	1028	7320	4993	2862	3417	5681	1503	1251	1167	972	893	1017	1029	209	3189	766	996	1136	2423	10315	3053	1036	1461	7858	903	1286	4236	998	780	1078	1251	2304	984	3601
2020-10-28	380	847	1626	791	2060	1667	1634	565	2283	4441	6628	1548	1921	1536	1866	1784	2349	2356	22750	1642	6335	3739	1231	10240	842	3813	906	18650	927	1086	3862	823	2478	6696	761	3214	1404	930	2205	3261	6341	4687	1190	2402	1296	1248	1607	806	2310	3624	1519	897	1493	6099	5757	1585	690	815	2480	1567	723	787	2345	566	11830	5209	853	915	3863	1318	1990	1180	707	4032	732	7341	2036	1003	4277	4782	397	720	943	1207	1011	942	4850	1662	1489	773	1012	605	1410	3527	1335	762	1706	1901	724	815	1023	443	1680	4860	2271	1117	466	1033	990	2417	1324	3471	1052	2372	1088	2763	728	2310	3154	622	2268	395	769	2901	1494	1298	1562	3548	1386	1029	3341	1475	2462	1139	626	2139	1676	1201	1244	3912	2033	10480	6426	3614	3171	22060	10770	678	2778	1220	1211	19420	3287	1166	321	607	20070	1519	1937	534	445	2101	425	598	1130	3471	2053	768	1140	1728	8721	2160	3973	362	1851	1980	893	873	2213	389	1996	3982	883	999	3327	5190	987	11270	1817	1386	9530	2125	3213	2746	2117	2003	4894	1617	3910	2477	957	1385	1383	2128	665	8196	592	2194	391	7280	1198	848	2297	1100	333	421	8670	6372	1301	794	8204	1221	849	17680	3238	1902	3559	930	752	935	1513	2775	361	1149	1357	1340	696	747	1201	2443	672	1706	3589	2116	1436	3405	888	1344	5689	1867	1224	669	7091	4532	4235	1293	649	7210	867	2003	1290	2163	6982	1018	699	630	2021	1270	1047	533	1352	962	1531	755	961	173	3417	6127	893	716	1044	7675	5114	2906	3480	5828	1553	1267	1188	987	909	1033	1061	214	3212	783	996	1137	2483	10770	3092	1056	1513	8051	918	1295	4410	1020	789	1100	1276	2349	1000	3758
2020-10-29	388	861	1682	817	2140	1676	1668	575	2305	4510	6810	1573	1957	1550	1945	1846	2377	2398	23170	1681	6487	3825	1277	10430	858	3910	915	19100	939	1103	3911	854	2531	7037	773	3261	1433	948	2261	3309	6465	4805	1245	2458	1323	1254	1624	820	2340	3702	1542	909	1513	6201	5875	1658	699	829	2533	1589	740	796	2407	581	12040	5298	866	940	3928	1338	2015	1197	719	4154	749	7542	2108	1012	4437	4918	403	738	954	1229	1046	957	4986	1700	1506	785	1035	619	1440	3574	1355	777	1760	1920	760	832	1032	453	1726	4963	2341	1129	481	1042	1010	2457	1346	3530	1064	2415	1108	2813	738	2371	3201	641	2313	398	792	2966	1516	1316	1604	3666	1429	1043	3397	1488	2520	1150	632	2198	1703	1214	1255	4033	2056	10800	6545	3674	3236	22550	10960	689	2832	1255	1234	19740	3338	1188	326	628	20440	1559	1960	544	454	2143	431	605	1148	3537	2085	782	1151	1780	8855	2218	4043	364	1899	2065	908	898	2260	394	2048	4035	903	1029	3374	5232	1022	11430	1859	1414	9790	2152	3272	2788	2189	2077	4977	1644	3974	2531	973	1405	1439	2172	676	8361	602	2288	396	7503	1224	862	2358	1107	339	428	8930	6512	1321	817	8353	1245	862	18020	3312	1951	3641	949	771	950	1598	2875	374	1173	1395	1359	706	761	1222	2499	689	1765	3636	2191	1456	3470	904	1362	5805	1921	1269	674	7281	4644	4391	1315	665	7330	878	2040	1338	2210	7134	1053	711	638	2090	1290	1069	541	1365	985	1549	766	988	177	3522	6250	900	726	1058	7904	5235	2960	3538	5974	1609	1283	1209	1002	924	1049	1087	219	3240	799	1003	1145	2543	11090	3128	1080	1555	8188	933	1307	4533	1041	799	1116	1299	2395	1016	3844
2020-10-30	395	876	1739	844	2213	1685	1704	585	2342	4581	7000	1598	1994	1576	2013	1923	2405	2440	23590	1721	6642	3926	1331	10620	874	4010	923	19550	950	1122	3962	887	2585	7329	785	3309	1462	965	2311	3350	6594	4930	1274	2505	1350	1261	1645	833	2362	3783	1565	920	1531	6322	5994	1734	709	842	2588	1611	757	805	2449	596	12220	5386	880	956	3995	1358	2024	1214	730	4279	765	7730	2177	1021	4602	5022	408	756	967	1255	1081	971	5096	1738	1522	801	1059	633	1461	3619	1379	787	1792	1939	789	848	1041	463	1773	5059	2401	1153	498	1051	1031	2497	1368	3588	1077	2455	1127	2865	749	2425	3248	656	2349	401	814	3011	1538	1335	1642	3756	1459	1056	3455	1501	2569	1162	638	2235	1730	1228	1266	4159	2080	11070	6632	3725	3296	22990	11150	699	2876	1290	1259	20010	3389	1211	331	641	20800	1599	1992	554	463	2185	437	613	1166	3604	2118	795	1161	1832	8990	2269	4118	367	1948	2153	926	919	2307	399	2101	4089	925	1066	3421	5266	1053	11600	1894	1442	10020	2180	3331	2823	2263	2143	5062	1671	4040	2584	986	1423	1495	2222	688	8529	613	2363	401	7697	1248	878	2418	1115	345	434	9190	6662	1343	839	8481	1268	874	18330	3388	2000	3717	973	790	964	1672	2977	388	1197	1436	1378	716	776	1244	2556	700	1826	3684	2255	1468	3517	921	1379	5903	1978	1310	679	7477	4755	4507	1338	675	7464	889	2068	1371	2258	7287	1090	722	646	2168	1300	1091	550	1382	996	1564	779	1009	181	3615	6373	907	735	1074	8079	5359	3038	3598	6124	1660	1300	1229	1017	940	1065	1116	223	3267	816	1009	1160	2603	11380	3164	1107	1582	8286	947	1320	4637	1063	808	1130	1321	2441	1031	3909
2020-10-31	402	890	1797	870	2274	1694	1739	595	2369	4649	7192	1622	2030	1592	2067	1977	2433	2480	24010	1762	6797	3996	1370	10810	891	4105	930	20000	961	1138	4011	919	2636	7591	796	3356	1476	978	2351	3379	6718	5037	1282	2540	1377	1267	1661	846	2377	3864	1580	930	1536	6432	6113	1812	719	856	2640	1633	774	813	2479	611	12390	5474	893	972	4060	1378	2042	1230	741	4406	779	7860	2224	1030	4767	5084	414	774	978	1266	1116	985	5192	1776	1538	805	1078	636	1480	3666	1401	796	1818	1958	814	860	1050	472	1821	5124	2450	1166	516	1060	1051	2536	1389	3646	1088	2481	1146	2915	759	2462	3294	672	2377	404	830	3043	1559	1353	1668	3822	1489	1066	3513	1514	2616	1173	644	2270	1757	1241	1277	4285	2104	11250	6709	3758	3347	23320	11340	710	2909	1325	1285	20230	3440	1226	336	650	21060	1640	2014	563	471	2227	444	620	1184	3671	2151	808	1171	1882	9123	2312	4155	369	1998	2242	939	936	2351	401	2153	4142	946	1083	3468	5291	1062	11760	1928	1470	10200	2207	3373	2842	2337	2181	5144	1697	4103	2638	997	1438	1554	2245	700	8692	623	2444	406	7861	1262	893	2479	1122	351	441	9380	6793	1355	861	8574	1290	887	18620	3463	2049	3761	984	809	978	1737	3080	401	1221	1470	1397	726	790	1266	2611	705	1886	3731	2295	1481	3543	937	1397	5999	2035	1336	684	7672	4866	4616	1359	687	7542	900	2087	1394	2305	7442	1127	733	654	2225	1308	1113	559	1400	1006	1571	790	1020	185	3677	6493	914	745	1088	8203	5483	3084	3655	6274	1691	1316	1249	1032	955	1081	1135	228	3293	833	1016	1160	2664	11620	3198	1124	1607	8384	961	1324	4729	1084	818	1140	1343	2487	1046	3965
2020-11-01	409	905	1858	898	2329	1703	1775	606	2387	4718	7391	1647	2068	1602	2106	2031	2461	2519	24440	1803	6956	4061	1403	11010	907	4201	938	20460	971	1154	4060	953	2687	7793	808	3405	1491	994	2385	3415	6842	5133	1309	2550	1405	1273	1673	859	2388	3946	1592	940	1538	6525	6234	1894	728	870	2693	1656	791	822	2511	627	12540	5562	907	993	4127	1398	2053	1247	753	4536	789	8004	2270	1038	4938	5147	419	791	990	1279	1153	998	5248	1816	1554	813	1089	643	1498	3713	1419	807	1841	1977	838	869	1057	482	1870	5207	2504	1180	526	1068	1072	2575	1409	3705	1099	2492	1164	2965	770	2510	3340	684	2407	407	848	3088	1579	1371	1692	3890	1516	1074	3572	1527	2668	1184	649	2299	1784	1254	1287	4414	2129	11450	6787	3778	3394	23600	11540	721	2935	1360	1312	20460	3492	1240	342	657	21310	1681	2026	573	479	2270	450	628	1202	3738	2184	821	1181	1932	9257	2353	4181	371	2048	2336	956	952	2396	403	2207	4195	967	1106	3515	5291	1068	11920	1947	1499	10400	2235	3409	2868	2414	2224	5227	1724	4166	2693	1008	1451	1615	2272	712	8855	634	2526	412	7997	1288	909	2541	1130	357	448	9590	6816	1373	883	8690	1313	899	18880	3539	2099	3802	996	828	992	1808	3188	416	1245	1490	1416	735	804	1289	2667	712	1948	3777	2342	1488	3583	953	1414	6066	2094	1365	689	7871	4978	4715	1381	696	7634	911	2100	1418	2353	7600	1165	744	661	2280	1322	1136	565	1411	1015	1571	802	1033	189	3715	6614	921	754	1103	8325	5610	3118	3712	6428	1730	1333	1269	1046	970	1097	1151	232	3320	850	1022	1161	2726	11820	3232	1128	1624	8457	975	1324	4799	1105	827	1149	1365	2535	1061	4014
2020-11-02	416	919	1920	926	2411	1712	1812	616	2426	4788	7595	1673	2106	1619	2180	2115	2490	2559	24880	1846	7119	4158	1465	11210	924	4299	957	20930	982	1171	4110	987	2738	8123	819	3454	1530	1023	2463	3476	6967	5262	1360	2616	1433	1279	1694	872	2419	4031	1611	950	1558	6668	6358	1979	737	884	2746	1679	808	830	2563	643	12770	5651	921	1020	4196	1418	2071	1265	764	4670	816	8264	2349	1047	5116	5285	425	809	1002	1301	1190	1012	5399	1856	1570	833	1119	663	1523	3760	1456	827	1915	1996	865	880	1068	493	1920	5332	2592	1206	540	1077	1094	2614	1430	3764	1110	2540	1183	3015	781	2573	3387	699	2458	411	867	3163	1601	1389	1756	3999	1552	1090	3631	1539	2742	1196	655	2351	1811	1268	1298	4548	2153	11790	6893	3858	3473	24190	11730	731	2989	1395	1339	20790	3545	1273	347	672	21740	1723	2073	582	488	2314	456	635	1221	3806	2218	834	1191	1982	9392	2418	4302	373	2100	2434	981	982	2442	407	2263	4250	989	1147	3563	5325	1091	12090	1990	1527	10710	2262	3497	2912	2494	2300	5310	1752	4230	2748	1029	1476	1678	2329	725	9020	645	2610	417	8275	1309	925	2603	1138	363	455	9890	6984	1409	905	8861	1337	912	19290	3618	2150	3895	1014	846	1007	1886	3299	430	1269	1532	1435	745	818	1311	2724	733	2010	3824	2402	1512	3642	968	1432	6215	2155	1432	695	8077	5091	4846	1404	715	7802	921	2137	1460	2403	7762	1204	755	669	2367	1344	1159	576	1446	1031	1596	815	1066	193	3831	6736	928	763	1118	8599	5740	3205	3770	6587	1782	1350	1289	1061	986	1114	1183	237	3348	867	1036	1179	2790	12230	3265	1148	1662	8631	990	1341	4910	1126	837	1167	1388	2584	1075	4087
2020-11-03	423	935	1985	955	2452	1721	1849	626	2465	4858	7805	1698	2145	1640	2252	2219	2518	2598	25320	1890	7287	4252	1527	11420	942	4397	973	21410	992	1188	4159	1023	2790	8521	831	3504	1558	1052	2514	3527	7093	5398	1410	2670	1462	1284	1729	886	2450	4117	1643	959	1589	6782	6484	2068	747	898	2799	1703	826	839	2607	660	12990	5741	936	1043	4265	1439	2121	1282	776	4809	837	8586	2435	1056	5300	5399	430	827	1013	1326	1229	1026	5521	1897	1586	848	1155	687	1544	3809	1492	840	1979	2014	902	895	1079	503	1972	5447	2655	1231	562	1085	1116	2653	1452	3823	1122	2603	1202	3066	792	2630	3433	715	2509	414	883	3239	1622	1407	1801	4110	1592	1102	3692	1552	2802	1207	661	2409	1838	1281	1308	4686	2178	12130	7014	3938	3540	24710	11930	743	3038	1431	1368	21120	3599	1299	352	685	22160	1767	2144	592	496	2359	463	643	1240	3874	2253	848	1202	2033	9527	2495	4379	375	2154	2536	1000	1013	2488	412	2320	4305	1012	1168	3612	5426	1110	12250	2034	1557	10990	2290	3553	2952	2576	2381	5393	1780	4293	2803	1052	1496	1744	2378	737	9187	656	2653	422	8534	1335	941	2666	1146	369	462	10140	7133	1438	927	9005	1360	924	19650	3698	2203	4003	1032	865	1021	1976	3415	446	1294	1563	1454	755	833	1334	2782	744	2073	3872	2473	1533	3711	984	1450	6335	2218	1480	700	8288	5206	4995	1426	732	7929	933	2172	1506	2454	7929	1245	765	676	2446	1362	1183	587	1491	1045	1635	827	1111	197	3926	6859	934	773	1132	8836	5874	3273	3827	6749	1842	1367	1309	1076	1001	1131	1196	242	3375	884	1054	1203	2856	12610	3298	1169	1699	8746	1004	1368	5065	1148	847	1190	1410	2634	1091	4152

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-28 to 2020-11-03

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-27	372	832	1571	764	1950	1657	1598	554	2243	4368	6451	1523	1884	1500	1744	1707	2320	2310	22333	1602	6182	3601	1181	10051	825	3709	895	18204	915	1066	3809	790	2420	6354	748	3167	1369	920	2137	3132	6207	4491	1120	2297	1270	1241	1591	793	2298	3547	1483	885	1482	5944	5638	1511	680	801	2422	1547	706	778	2298	551	11416	5119	839	907	3797	1297	1949	1163	695	3912	711	7098	1947	994	4113	4656	392	701	930	1181	982	927	4702	1625	1472	773	974	559	1368	3480	1307	749	1673	1880	697	790	1018	434	1634	4756	2191	1093	454	1023	969	2375	1301	3411	1039	2344	1068	2709	717	2262	3106	609	2208	392	744	2858	1472	1279	1507	3424	1350	1011	3285	1462	2387	1126	620	2088	1647	1187	1232	3790	2011	10203	6159	3568	3052	21587	10582	668	2733	1185	1190	18640	3235	1155	315	592	19685	1478	1937	524	436	2060	418	590	1112	3404	2021	754	1130	1671	8583	2108	3937	360	1804	1898	876	843	2163	379	1943	3930	863	974	3280	5173	963	11091	1783	1358	9204	2097	3132	2698	2046	1908	4805	1590	3840	2424	945	1365	1329	2073	653	8023	581	2082	386	6957	1178	835	2237	1093	327	414	8381	6163	1280	770	7896	1197	836	17162	3159	1853	3442	910	732	921	1435	2673	347	1125	1281	1320	686	732	1178	2385	663	1645	3540	2057	1424	3347	870	1326	5545	1823	1181	665	6897	4420	4102	1270	634	7069	855	1992	1257	2115	6826	982	687	620	1916	1232	1025	527	1352	935	1531	742	932	169	3288	5999	885	706	1028	7320	4993	2862	3417	5681	1503	1251	1167	972	893	1017	1029	209	3189	766	996	1136	2423	10315	3053	1036	1461	7858	903	1286	4236	998	780	1078	1251	2304	984	3601
2020-10-28	380	846	1625	792	2020	1668	1638	565	2292	4452	6666	1544	1926	1527	1819	1809	2347	2362	22800	1645	6374	3703	1228	10320	842	3832	918	18600	927	1088	3869	815	2495	6695	762	3229	1400	944	2192	3191	6353	4629	1160	2352	1325	1258	1626	806	2328	3683	1510	900	1517	6073	5767	1567	699	814	2483	1579	722	788	2343	567	11670	5233	855	937	3870	1320	1996	1185	712	4049	732	7442	2019	1005	4264	4775	396	719	947	1204	1030	945	4848	1678	1489	788	1014	585	1394	3558	1337	761	1737	1900	723	802	1028	444	1681	4868	2264	1115	470	1038	992	2425	1324	3468	1063	2405	1092	2763	729	2325	3157	621	2253	399	765	2917	1501	1301	1557	3517	1382	1024	3357	1475	2448	1143	628	2139	1679	1201	1248	3925	2056	10510	6264	3645	3127	22120	10790	681	2781	1225	1228	18970	3293	1185	321	605	20120	1542	1984	534	445	2109	425	596	1132	3472	2063	772	1154	1721	8704	2174	4022	370	1863	2000	895	869	2220	382	1995	4016	894	996	3336	5258	985	11220	1826	1387	9470	2124	3204	2744	2124	1990	4895	1620	3916	2476	970	1389	1377	2119	665	8219	592	2139	392	7208	1202	856	2291	1111	331	420	8630	6357	1309	791	8047	1224	850	17530	3240	1898	3527	925	754	935	1502	2790	358	1148	1307	1341	697	749	1204	2458	677	1709	3590	2124	1449	3416	892	1344	5664	1882	1225	677	7088	4541	4225	1297	650	7198	866	2025	1296	2174	7024	1023	700	640	1985	1248	1041	535	1378	951	1570	757	965	175	3398	6145	894	716	1046	7592	5140	2929	3493	5822	1553	1276	1190	990	912	1037	1051	215	3251	783	1014	1163	2500	10670	3131	1060	1496	7990	922	1305	4359	1021	792	1101	1280	2376	1002	3676
2020-10-29	384	858	1678	813	2082	1678	1668	576	2328	4530	6862	1566	1967	1540	1883	1870	2370	2409	23260	1684	6545	3807	1268	10560	857	3952	934	19030	941	1113	3922	836	2556	7027	774	3286	1426	969	2246	3239	6483	4761	1200	2400	1376	1275	1660	820	2357	3815	1531	914	1547	6184	5881	1617	716	827	2544	1613	737	797	2387	579	11870	5349	866	963	3933	1342	2044	1203	724	4185	751	7700	2088	1014	4392	4914	401	735	958	1223	1072	959	4980	1727	1506	800	1038	602	1421	3643	1363	776	1804	1918	744	814	1037	455	1722	4967	2334	1131	484	1053	1016	2468	1346	3518	1084	2469	1112	2818	740	2384	3199	634	2299	405	781	2992	1524	1320	1592	3610	1417	1036	3433	1488	2508	1158	634	2193	1709	1216	1258	4038	2106	10840	6372	3716	3196	22610	10960	693	2830	1263	1271	19270	3339	1205	326	624	20480	1605	2017	545	452	2151	432	605	1150	3545	2102	787	1178	1759	8806	2229	4113	376	1924	2101	908	893	2270	386	2041	4093	918	1022	3387	5338	1015	11330	1868	1413	9720	2152	3261	2782	2192	2059	4984	1649	3987	2535	992	1407	1424	2160	675	8397	603	2209	396	7430	1224	874	2352	1127	337	426	8870	6502	1328	810	8190	1254	863	17860	3301	1938	3611	939	774	949	1571	2890	367	1173	1338	1358	707	763	1222	2520	690	1769	3635	2189	1472	3476	908	1363	5778	1930	1270	690	7267	4670	4356	1323	665	7314	876	2068	1332	2221	7208	1058	711	654	2052	1265	1058	544	1395	969	1615	768	993	178	3490	6279	902	725	1064	7819	5280	2985	3560	5973	1603	1297	1211	1004	929	1057	1071	220	3316	803	1030	1184	2572	10980	3195	1083	1528	8128	936	1327	4467	1047	803	1122	1302	2444	1018	3754
2020-10-30	390	871	1730	830	2141	1688	1702	588	2376	4611	7053	1588	2009	1563	1947	1941	2393	2445	23720	1723	6712	3921	1321	10800	872	4060	948	19430	949	1140	3975	858	2616	7342	786	3343	1452	995	2297	3282	6619	4899	1236	2444	1431	1292	1694	831	2384	3950	1552	924	1578	6303	5996	1669	732	840	2598	1646	751	806	2425	591	12030	5458	877	983	3997	1362	2086	1220	734	4323	769	7941	2157	1023	4527	5027	406	751	969	1245	1114	975	5104	1773	1524	815	1064	618	1448	3725	1390	787	1860	1936	765	825	1046	465	1765	5064	2401	1149	498	1069	1042	2510	1369	3568	1106	2534	1132	2873	750	2434	3247	646	2342	412	796	3051	1544	1339	1626	3693	1444	1047	3506	1501	2566	1174	640	2246	1741	1230	1270	4145	2157	11110	6466	3788	3257	23050	11140	706	2875	1298	1311	19550	3385	1225	332	634	20840	1670	2053	556	460	2195	438	613	1169	3613	2140	802	1204	1792	8907	2284	4205	383	1981	2210	924	915	2319	390	2087	4170	945	1056	3438	5417	1042	11440	1906	1438	9970	2179	3317	2814	2261	2132	5075	1677	4059	2595	1012	1425	1472	2208	686	8578	614	2275	402	7645	1246	893	2412	1144	342	433	9110	6657	1349	829	8325	1285	875	18180	3364	1975	3695	955	794	963	1628	2993	379	1198	1369	1376	717	778	1241	2575	701	1845	3681	2245	1492	3527	922	1382	5877	1979	1313	703	7448	4793	4471	1346	676	7438	890	2106	1367	2259	7381	1091	722	665	2126	1279	1075	553	1414	983	1662	779	1019	182	3571	6392	910	733	1077	8018	5422	3063	3626	6102	1655	1317	1232	1020	945	1077	1095	225	3375	823	1044	1207	2639	11290	3260	1108	1557	8219	951	1350	4560	1071	815	1141	1323	2517	1033	3826
2020-10-31	396	884	1779	848	2192	1698	1729	600	2416	4668	7234	1610	2050	1581	2012	1994	2415	2481	24180	1760	6876	4021	1360	11030	886	4157	963	19780	957	1163	4024	880	2667	7632	799	3401	1464	1019	2348	3317	6755	5037	1269	2483	1485	1310	1730	842	2409	4075	1568	933	1599	6419	6106	1722	746	853	2640	1680	764	815	2459	602	12170	5567	889	1007	4056	1382	2131	1237	745	4462	785	8179	2220	1032	4649	5108	411	767	980	1260	1160	986	5225	1815	1541	819	1088	631	1475	3806	1418	797	1907	1954	786	834	1055	477	1805	5156	2463	1165	512	1082	1060	2552	1391	3618	1128	2595	1153	2926	760	2469	3285	659	2383	418	808	3093	1566	1358	1649	3766	1471	1057	3580	1513	2625	1189	646	2299	1770	1245	1280	4252	2208	11330	6554	3849	3300	23380	11290	716	2912	1334	1352	19790	3431	1239	337	641	21140	1737	2083	568	468	2237	445	622	1187	3681	2178	816	1226	1821	9008	2339	4281	390	2037	2318	936	937	2367	393	2132	4243	972	1072	3486	5493	1060	11540	1945	1464	10210	2206	3364	2832	2330	2199	5165	1704	4131	2656	1032	1440	1520	2230	697	8720	625	2345	405	7832	1263	908	2470	1161	347	439	9300	6790	1359	844	8444	1312	888	18500	3427	2011	3757	968	812	977	1688	3098	389	1223	1391	1394	724	794	1258	2631	709	1907	3724	2288	1511	3565	936	1400	5976	2030	1345	715	7630	4911	4577	1368	688	7537	899	2138	1400	2301	7542	1122	733	671	2185	1291	1092	561	1433	996	1699	791	1041	184	3625	6507	918	742	1089	8163	5560	3115	3685	6221	1689	1336	1253	1033	960	1097	1111	230	3414	841	1061	1225	2679	11570	3312	1128	1587	8305	964	1365	4654	1086	827	1160	1344	2580	1048	3892
2020-11-01	400	895	1828	865	2230	1708	1755	611	2453	4723	7434	1631	2091	1593	2074	2040	2438	2512	24650	1796	7049	4121	1390	11250	900	4274	978	20110	965	1186	4073	902	2702	7908	810	3454	1483	1046	2396	3356	6899	5172	1306	2518	1538	1327	1761	854	2433	4206	1582	945	1615	6524	6223	1777	761	866	2689	1715	776	824	2491	611	12340	5665	901	1027	4117	1400	2170	1253	753	4605	802	8380	2281	1041	4764	5180	416	782	991	1275	1205	999	5325	1857	1557	829	1107	644	1502	3885	1444	808	1947	1973	807	838	1062	486	1845	5253	2525	1182	524	1093	1078	2589	1413	3667	1151	2648	1173	2976	770	2519	3319	670	2426	425	819	3147	1587	1375	1672	3838	1494	1066	3648	1526	2688	1201	653	2352	1799	1259	1291	4360	2261	11530	6656	3904	3356	23690	11450	725	2943	1371	1391	20050	3473	1253	342	648	21420	1808	2100	579	476	2279	451	630	1205	3748	2215	829	1247	1846	9110	2388	4358	396	2082	2417	952	958	2411	395	2177	4309	998	1090	3533	5560	1076	11630	1969	1490	10460	2232	3403	2860	2403	2261	5258	1731	4204	2718	1052	1457	1568	2259	707	8858	636	2419	409	7977	1285	920	2529	1176	352	445	9510	6875	1375	862	8584	1340	901	18800	3492	2041	3826	982	831	989	1751	3207	399	1249	1410	1412	733	808	1276	2687	718	1955	3769	2327	1528	3608	947	1417	6057	2082	1380	727	7813	5018	4686	1390	700	7643	908	2170	1434	2337	7706	1146	742	682	2234	1306	1109	569	1448	1010	1732	801	1064	187	3654	6599	926	750	1098	8299	5702	3148	3742	6353	1728	1354	1274	1046	975	1118	1123	234	3465	857	1075	1241	2718	11850	3360	1139	1617	8394	976	1372	4719	1100	838	1177	1366	2646	1062	3955
2020-11-02	405	909	1884	883	2290	1718	1787	624	2498	4803	7658	1654	2134	1607	2142	2111	2461	2550	25150	1835	7255	4244	1438	11550	920	4388	999	20580	977	1213	4127	925	2759	8255	822	3514	1516	1075	2456	3425	7049	5311	1347	2576	1602	1344	1792	874	2460	4355	1605	959	1637	6653	6354	1835	778	879	2764	1750	790	833	2534	625	12600	5787	916	1049	4185	1423	2219	1271	763	4765	828	8629	2344	1050	4901	5332	421	800	1005	1295	1252	1014	5455	1916	1576	843	1132	661	1531	3975	1476	826	2040	1991	829	848	1072	498	1898	5363	2612	1201	537	1111	1098	2632	1436	3728	1173	2716	1194	3034	781	2569	3369	683	2476	431	832	3234	1612	1392	1723	3933	1527	1078	3726	1539	2756	1213	659	2410	1831	1274	1303	4478	2315	11880	6784	3984	3449	24250	11610	737	2992	1410	1439	20360	3516	1275	349	659	21790	1883	2135	591	484	2328	457	639	1222	3827	2256	842	1277	1886	9214	2445	4473	403	2142	2541	970	985	2464	400	2225	4398	1027	1126	3580	5643	1100	11750	2006	1518	10750	2261	3490	2897	2480	2330	5352	1760	4279	2783	1077	1477	1622	2314	717	9081	648	2496	416	8284	1306	936	2596	1197	357	451	9800	7011	1404	880	8762	1380	914	19200	3558	2082	3926	997	852	1004	1819	3321	408	1275	1453	1433	747	826	1295	2756	732	2026	3819	2378	1554	3656	963	1437	6207	2137	1442	741	8019	5158	4815	1417	715	7787	921	2212	1469	2389	7928	1181	754	693	2323	1330	1126	580	1467	1026	1778	812	1095	191	3757	6712	933	759	1116	8635	5857	3234	3813	6522	1777	1378	1295	1062	993	1140	1149	239	3560	873	1091	1257	2784	12220	3427	1161	1649	8590	992	1400	4829	1128	851	1200	1387	2729	1079	4040
2020-11-03	409	922	1945	899	2346	1728	1825	636	2553	4883	7909	1678	2181	1630	2213	2195	2487	2594	25660	1875	7466	4373	1496	11850	936	4509	1018	21050	988	1237	4183	949	2832	8674	835	3577	1541	1107	2514	3489	7201	5471	1393	2627	1667	1361	1831	891	2487	4511	1635	970	1674	6785	6487	1894	794	893	2840	1786	802	842	2571	638	12860	5907	927	1072	4248	1447	2279	1290	776	4925	851	8979	2421	1059	5054	5469	426	819	1018	1319	1305	1029	5594	1969	1595	851	1167	687	1560	4066	1508	843	2119	2009	853	864	1081	511	1955	5469	2689	1220	553	1131	1120	2676	1459	3786	1197	2793	1216	3096	792	2635	3423	696	2530	438	844	3320	1641	1412	1770	4032	1562	1090	3808	1552	2823	1228	665	2470	1867	1290	1313	4592	2371	12230	6922	4068	3566	24740	11790	750	3038	1450	1484	20730	3560	1289	355	669	22220	1961	2174	602	492	2378	464	648	1241	3911	2294	857	1306	1921	9318	2513	4574	410	2212	2675	986	1013	2518	408	2276	4482	1057	1151	3632	5735	1124	11870	2045	1545	11030	2289	3560	2937	2559	2406	5449	1792	4355	2848	1101	1494	1678	2375	728	9307	660	2568	422	8575	1329	955	2663	1215	364	459	10080	7162	1426	899	8938	1419	928	19590	3625	2127	4031	1012	873	1020	1897	3439	421	1302	1498	1452	759	843	1317	2831	742	2096	3868	2438	1577	3715	977	1458	6339	2195	1491	755	8226	5295	4947	1443	729	7918	932	2254	1509	2437	8157	1211	768	704	2402	1351	1144	589	1487	1044	1845	824	1132	196	3841	6850	944	769	1134	8929	6014	3299	3890	6684	1833	1400	1317	1079	1012	1161	1167	245	3641	894	1111	1281	2860	12600	3490	1182	1683	8740	1005	1431	4955	1159	863	1223	1410	2816	1097	4133

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-27 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-27