COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-01

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-01

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)10-1910-21 -- -- --04-1410-1910-21 -- -- --10-0910-18 -- -- -- -- --10-19 --10-1910-18 -- -- --10-20 -- --10-2010-15 --10-2110-2110-2010-2010-19 -- --10-1109-2710-2010-1810-1310-1110-19 -- --10-11 --10-1810-21 -- --10-18 -- --10-2009-2910-1910-14 --10-11 -- --10-05 -- --10-18 --10-19 --10-20 -- -- --10-1910-1810-21 --10-1809-3010-20 --10-04 -- -- -- --10-1510-2110-2010-1110-0510-19 --10-2110-1809-23 -- --05-11 --10-19 --10-12 --10-21 -- --10-2010-2109-26 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- --10-1310-1910-21 --10-20 -- -- --10-19 -- --05-0310-1810-1804-2110-1910-1410-18 -- --10-18 --10-01 --10-11 -- --10-2110-21 -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2310-20 -- -- --10-19 -- --10-1810-13 -- --10-1809-2709-26 -- -- --10-2010-20 -- -- --05-04 -- --10-18 --08-02 --10-1809-30 --10-21 -- -- --10-2010-2010-20 -- -- -- -- -- --10-1910-14 --10-21 --10-1810-21 -- -- --10-12 --09-2509-2410-21 -- -- --10-04 -- --09-29 -- -- -- --10-1909-2810-19 -- --10-19 -- --04-22 -- --10-19 -- --09-23 -- --10-18 --10-1910-12 -- -- -- --10-1510-21 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- -- --10-2110-14 --10-0410-20 -- --10-0410-19 -- --04-06 -- --09-2604-2710-21 -- -- --10-21 --10-21 -- --10-2110-1910-2110-20 --10-07 -- -- -- -- --10-19 -- --09-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-18 --10-07
Peak daily increment 8 34 22 38 12 28 44 503 185 99 135 13 65 26 71 291 13 57 57 71 169 140 32 49 54 16 135 26 125 21 14 63 35 9 259 48 22 22 278 65 21 110 7 25 22 19 20 35 17 28 88 20 61 87 13 43 71 20 55 27 70 58 46 7 27 28 32 29 64 18 16 52 33 15 49 150 80 12 50 466 441 71 47 18 72 28 64 222 59 116 15 33 68 24 441 29 45 66 69 41 45 212 65 6 65 8 9 246 183 389 20 16 72 27 18 65 58 63 19 117 119 145 36 13 16 21 17 17 46 6 11 15 17 73 55 17 17 22 23 78 79 138 72 90
Days since peak 13 11 201 13 11 23 14 13 13 14 12 12 17 11 11 12 12 13 21 35 12 14 19 21 13 21 14 11 14 12 33 13 18 21 27 14 13 12 13 14 11 14 32 12 28 17 11 12 21 27 13 11 14 39 174 13 20 11 12 11 36 14 19 13 11 12 13 182 14 14 194 13 18 14 14 31 21 11 11 34 39 12 13 14 19 14 35 36 12 12 181 14 91 14 32 11 12 12 12 13 18 11 14 11 20 37 38 11 28 33 13 34 13 13 193 13 39 14 13 20 17 11 11 11 18 28 12 28 13 209 36 188 11 11 11 11 13 11 12 25 13 35 14 25
Last total 402 960 1857 864 2251 1712 1762 601 2472 4677 7367 1652 2010 1639 2091 1998 2457 2558 24668 1766 6884 3908 1425 11124 896 4222 972 20237 973 1156 4085 893 2617 7541 801 3350 1503 1028 2371 3357 6951 5048 1231 2472 1472 1350 1784 854 2512 3965 1590 954 1639 6469 6183 1748 762 861 2632 1673 827 815 2475 640 12549 5660 916 997 4079 1377 2138 1256 768 4616 797 8138 2189 1096 4927 5058 418 832 999 1282 1221 1046 5473 1880 1562 839 1109 627 1472 3791 1450 828 1914 2014 795 857 1072 479 1796 5234 2453 1225 519 1107 1085 2595 1414 3634 1183 2548 1178 2963 771 2546 3357 673 2430 409 857 3243 1569 1382 1693 3797 1496 1087 3603 1553 2630 1198 657 2275 1778 1240 1385 4698 2174 11819 6521 3892 3384 23953 11476 708 2909 1399 1337 19687 3573 1297 342 651 21390 1746 2208 585 501 2244 471 637 1170 3721 2235 889 1231 1855 9148 2501 4307 432 2035 2455 994 1009 2471 403 2201 4356 975 1143 3558 5597 1060 11917 1987 1468 10408 2248 3416 2891 2312 2167 5261 1746 4269 2712 1067 1456 1473 2251 723 8899 630 2309 409 7864 1283 900 2548 1172 346 461 9480 7002 1413 867 8402 1353 930 18796 3544 2084 3822 994 801 990 1722 3195 399 1206 1420 1461 756 831 1275 2636 750 1958 3800 2335 1531 3569 1014 1409 5989 2130 1402 727 7725 4934 4780 1404 761 7652 912 2143 1486 2367 7606 1154 739 693 2228 1281 1095 579 1530 1009 1684 838 1094 191 3673 6646 923 766 1102 8434 5620 3161 3692 6346 1723 1371 1280 1028 959 1119 1134 246 3461 883 1086 1230 2699 11727 3335 1155 1621 8324 999 1390 4782 1121 850 1201 1400 2573 1147 3877
Last daily increment 5 26 44 7 30 7 27 3 19 36 144 13 18 24 53 43 27 30 318 20 116 43 38 167 8 57 7 367 6 8 33 6 22 131 12 30 10 8 29 40 114 86 18 22 28 10 35 9 26 36 11 4 13 65 77 23 10 4 30 15 22 7 26 6 222 68 10 15 33 14 47 12 10 104 17 165 19 15 102 49 6 14 9 22 29 18 143 31 14 3 11 15 12 49 22 12 35 22 8 5 6 4 29 90 37 15 5 4 21 24 18 32 26 22 12 44 1 41 28 7 29 6 13 53 10 7 24 56 30 4 38 15 26 13 2 19 15 7 17 176 22 289 43 47 43 349 112 4 15 30 10 131 52 21 3 13 229 22 36 7 13 33 10 7 14 45 32 11 10 16 109 47 54 8 35 102 15 24 59 2 38 75 22 32 27 65 9 98 47 16 171 11 51 29 23 22 67 20 61 59 20 11 19 24 9 115 7 38 5 131 16 15 33 20 3 9 153 109 33 10 59 20 8 207 47 38 42 11 8 13 31 71 8 6 15 19 8 8 11 48 13 50 37 26 15 24 27 10 67 32 27 14 136 87 95 12 10 89 5 29 63 29 120 27 5 15 48 9 8 5 32 8 21 12 29 5 53 103 10 9 8 182 75 33 32 95 40 16 20 5 12 17 11 3 57 18 10 5 27 182 22 8 27 65 12 13 81 16 5 21 17 39 24 47
Last week 40 138 342 120 349 62 204 56 254 378 1101 129 164 165 414 382 160 296 2751 207 862 386 295 1300 83 646 88 2476 70 93 343 140 267 1473 72 238 167 133 273 264 892 684 148 214 243 124 222 67 240 506 144 90 181 633 681 306 96 68 285 145 122 51 219 102 1324 630 91 109 350 96 233 112 87 826 104 1279 307 110 975 488 30 128 81 120 279 138 897 301 106 83 167 87 118 381 175 89 290 144 136 80 66 55 201 576 318 156 85 99 132 261 142 286 176 255 136 289 66 336 297 79 264 23 137 436 120 132 225 462 183 89 371 109 299 86 47 232 150 63 167 1047 201 1917 449 394 328 2860 1074 51 219 249 173 1325 397 174 33 75 2109 322 333 67 73 235 59 52 83 372 252 154 120 249 684 474 437 83 284 626 135 193 380 27 318 509 136 189 331 515 104 979 242 139 1464 176 341 244 333 337 554 188 503 328 137 112 194 217 81 1067 60 257 30 1118 129 82 345 93 22 57 1329 987 167 121 617 185 112 1924 493 282 471 97 95 84 362 650 66 100 154 145 76 107 125 306 95 368 316 354 126 275 164 102 562 378 256 67 1018 589 801 157 142 704 70 181 265 312 983 214 65 89 376 65 80 63 217 84 180 114 192 31 472 753 46 70 91 1350 771 362 355 802 278 140 137 62 85 122 120 40 323 129 104 107 342 1765 337 143 195 580 116 125 673 147 79 146 192 318 187 328
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --07-01 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-16 -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 95 65 68 43 20 18 75 75 31
Low between peaks 10 1 1 0 1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-08

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-01 402 960 1857 864 2251 1712 1762 601 2472 4677 7367 1652 2010 1639 2091 1998 2457 2558 24668 1766 6884 3908 1425 11124 896 4222 972 20237 973 1156 4085 893 2617 7541 801 3350 1503 1028 2371 3357 6951 5048 1231 2472 1472 1350 1784 854 2512 3965 1590 954 1639 6469 6183 1748 762 861 2632 1673 827 815 2475 640 12549 5660 916 997 4079 1377 2138 1256 768 4616 797 8138 2189 1096 4927 5058 418 832 999 1282 1221 1046 5473 1880 1562 839 1109 627 1472 3791 1450 828 1914 2014 795 857 1072 479 1796 5234 2453 1225 519 1107 1085 2595 1414 3634 1183 2548 1178 2963 771 2546 3357 673 2430 409 857 3243 1569 1382 1693 3797 1496 1087 3603 1553 2630 1198 657 2275 1778 1240 1385 4698 2174 11819 6521 3892 3384 23953 11476 708 2909 1399 1337 19687 3573 1297 342 651 21390 1746 2208 585 501 2244 471 637 1170 3721 2235 889 1231 1855 9148 2501 4307 432 2035 2455 994 1009 2471 403 2201 4356 975 1143 3558 5597 1060 11917 1987 1468 10408 2248 3416 2891 2312 2167 5261 1746 4269 2712 1067 1456 1473 2251 723 8899 630 2309 409 7864 1283 900 2548 1172 346 461 9480 7002 1413 867 8402 1353 930 18796 3544 2084 3822 994 801 990 1722 3195 399 1206 1420 1461 756 831 1275 2636 750 1958 3800 2335 1531 3569 1014 1409 5989 2130 1402 727 7725 4934 4780 1404 761 7652 912 2143 1486 2367 7606 1154 739 693 2228 1281 1095 579 1530 1009 1684 838 1094 191 3673 6646 923 766 1102 8434 5620 3161 3692 6346 1723 1371 1280 1028 959 1119 1134 246 3461 883 1086 1230 2699 11727 3335 1155 1621 8324 999 1390 4782 1121 850 1201 1400 2573 1147 3877
2020-11-02 402 978 1910 870 2292 1722 1791 611 2513 4789 7597 1675 2041 1648 2153 2105 2489 2605 24810 1799 6963 4065 1433 11340 909 4300 985 20820 984 1240 4137 910 2665 7859 812 3396 1536 1077 2459 3403 7047 5156 1271 2550 1547 1375 1810 867 2569 4036 1612 966 1698 6590 6287 1818 767 873 2721 1703 858 823 2508 667 12760 5773 930 1004 4143 1411 2216 1272 783 4823 814 8507 2228 1113 5083 5176 423 842 1027 1303 1291 1075 5641 1925 1580 850 1116 642 1494 3867 1483 841 1934 2052 824 885 1078 488 1833 5335 2569 1260 528 1112 1110 2637 1437 3685 1215 2613 1200 3066 781 2633 3406 691 2480 414 875 3359 1580 1402 1727 3883 1526 1101 3751 1567 2679 1213 663 2338 1827 1253 1393 4887 2212 12250 6631 3965 3520 24430 11660 717 2946 1413 1378 20260 3596 1297 347 662 21850 1762 2264 597 512 2314 474 651 1184 3786 2280 926 1253 1889 9330 2501 4383 447 2084 2553 1013 1040 2541 407 2260 4448 999 1192 3607 5690 1093 12080 2049 1487 10680 2272 3494 2926 2391 2219 5359 1777 4344 2787 1084 1473 1507 2322 734 9080 641 2362 414 8212 1303 943 2637 1205 351 469 9680 7284 1443 867 8511 1386 944 19310 3641 2099 3890 1009 817 1004 1784 3324 411 1226 1461 1487 767 846 1296 2692 759 2044 3847 2393 1556 3632 1014 1426 6168 2213 1478 743 7902 5042 4895 1428 803 7767 923 2175 1545 2379 7855 1235 749 707 2363 1295 1110 593 1553 1023 1718 838 1121 195 3799 6774 931 776 1123 8790 5757 3258 3774 6505 1758 1392 1301 1041 974 1138 1141 252 3594 912 1103 1277 2771 12300 3391 1192 1650 8562 1015 1411 4924 1144 871 1222 1429 2645 1179 3933
2020-11-03 408 995 1965 877 2334 1732 1819 621 2556 4871 7825 1698 2071 1678 2216 2206 2520 2651 25150 1835 7045 4159 1484 11560 922 4420 999 21380 996 1252 4190 927 2712 8138 823 3443 1565 1113 2514 3449 7197 5262 1311 2598 1589 1397 1831 880 2616 4058 1634 978 1739 6703 6393 1889 772 886 2795 1733 878 832 2541 685 12980 5884 944 1009 4209 1433 2291 1286 798 5029 830 8751 2290 1130 5243 5256 428 852 1043 1328 1361 1105 5815 1971 1597 860 1125 656 1517 3945 1517 854 1956 2088 853 908 1090 497 1870 5434 2637 1293 536 1118 1134 2678 1460 3735 1245 2665 1222 3129 793 2708 3470 708 2535 419 894 3442 1591 1423 1762 3970 1554 1116 3841 1581 2728 1227 670 2387 1858 1266 1402 5074 2252 12630 6711 4039 3588 24960 11840 727 2983 1427 1419 20580 3655 1318 353 672 22280 1780 2341 610 523 2364 483 664 1198 3851 2323 958 1274 1923 9465 2561 4459 462 2133 2651 1033 1071 2612 412 2319 4541 1022 1225 3657 5779 1110 12250 2109 1507 10970 2298 3554 2960 2451 2271 5458 1809 4418 2860 1101 1491 1543 2370 746 9280 652 2415 419 8455 1323 965 2697 1229 355 476 9880 7488 1481 876 8547 1420 958 19690 3739 2145 3959 1024 834 1017 1848 3455 423 1245 1495 1513 778 859 1318 2749 768 2129 3895 2467 1582 3682 1042 1443 6285 2291 1516 759 8085 5151 5019 1452 839 7882 936 2206 1602 2432 8074 1302 760 720 2438 1309 1124 607 1575 1038 1750 851 1148 199 3881 6903 939 786 1141 9070 5899 3327 3858 6669 1792 1412 1323 1054 989 1157 1155 257 3645 941 1120 1308 2844 12680 3444 1218 1677 8674 1032 1432 5091 1167 891 1243 1459 2702 1210 3986
2020-11-04 414 1012 2021 884 2392 1742 1847 630 2596 4941 8069 1721 2101 1707 2278 2303 2551 2694 25530 1870 7127 4227 1532 11780 935 4546 1013 21850 1007 1288 4243 944 2759 8431 834 3489 1591 1146 2569 3495 7340 5367 1346 2643 1636 1420 1866 893 2661 4110 1656 990 1779 6821 6496 1964 777 898 2844 1761 901 840 2574 704 13190 6008 958 1014 4275 1453 2367 1301 813 5244 846 8993 2345 1148 5406 5340 432 863 1063 1352 1436 1133 5993 2017 1615 870 1134 671 1539 4001 1547 867 1980 2124 882 929 1099 505 1906 5531 2702 1327 545 1124 1158 2718 1482 3785 1275 2724 1243 3196 808 2780 3528 725 2579 424 912 3519 1602 1444 1796 4057 1582 1129 3940 1595 2777 1241 676 2437 1891 1278 1411 5263 2290 13050 6788 4113 3654 25520 12020 736 3020 1442 1459 20860 3728 1347 358 682 22670 1799 2417 623 535 2402 491 677 1211 3916 2367 993 1294 1957 9586 2601 4531 477 2182 2750 1053 1103 2683 416 2380 4635 1045 1267 3707 5867 1136 12410 2162 1526 11260 2323 3623 2994 2516 2323 5558 1842 4492 2934 1119 1508 1577 2418 756 9470 663 2466 424 8681 1343 983 2763 1259 360 483 10090 7700 1512 882 8591 1455 972 20040 3843 2190 4029 1039 849 1030 1914 3591 436 1265 1524 1540 789 877 1341 2806 778 2216 3943 2530 1608 3737 1082 1459 6391 2368 1570 775 8268 5258 5147 1475 890 7997 945 2237 1661 2493 8266 1364 770 734 2527 1322 1139 620 1597 1052 1783 867 1174 202 3985 7029 947 796 1160 9340 6041 3392 3926 6835 1827 1432 1344 1068 1004 1176 1177 263 3697 970 1136 1335 2901 13030 3501 1245 1705 8795 1047 1452 5251 1190 911 1264 1489 2769 1240 4040
2020-11-05 422 1028 2078 892 2439 1751 1874 640 2637 5012 8280 1744 2130 1725 2341 2369 2582 2737 25900 1907 7212 4319 1575 12010 948 4682 1027 22390 1019 1313 4295 962 2807 8696 845 3536 1619 1181 2613 3541 7493 5473 1373 2682 1684 1440 1898 906 2703 4159 1678 1002 1813 6927 6601 2043 783 910 2903 1790 925 849 2607 727 13400 6122 972 1019 4342 1470 2443 1316 827 5462 863 9204 2403 1165 5573 5446 437 874 1075 1372 1513 1164 6190 2063 1632 880 1143 685 1561 4088 1574 881 2004 2160 912 951 1111 514 1943 5627 2758 1361 555 1130 1181 2758 1505 3836 1305 2771 1265 3266 820 2852 3569 742 2622 430 931 3598 1613 1465 1830 4147 1610 1142 4049 1609 2826 1255 683 2484 1921 1291 1420 5452 2330 13470 6874 4189 3706 26010 12240 745 3058 1457 1501 21260 3795 1372 363 692 23030 1818 2491 635 545 2444 502 689 1224 3981 2408 1034 1314 1990 9690 2650 4605 493 2231 2849 1073 1136 2755 420 2441 4730 1069 1311 3756 5953 1163 12580 2211 1546 11550 2349 3682 3027 2572 2376 5659 1874 4566 3008 1136 1525 1613 2456 767 9640 673 2518 429 8898 1363 999 2843 1278 364 491 10290 7890 1538 888 8638 1490 986 20360 3947 2230 4099 1054 866 1044 1984 3731 448 1284 1550 1566 800 895 1364 2863 787 2302 3990 2594 1634 3791 1111 1476 6491 2447 1613 792 8457 5367 5291 1499 934 8113 959 2268 1720 2555 8439 1423 781 747 2597 1337 1153 633 1619 1067 1815 883 1200 206 4060 7156 954 806 1180 9580 6188 3452 3994 6997 1862 1451 1364 1081 1019 1195 1199 268 3763 1000 1152 1360 2970 13370 3580 1271 1731 8898 1063 1473 5392 1213 930 1285 1520 2832 1270 4093
2020-11-06 431 1044 2138 899 2499 1761 1902 650 2679 5085 8493 1768 2160 1753 2405 2457 2613 2779 26310 1944 7297 4389 1657 12240 961 4802 1041 22850 1030 1320 4348 979 2855 8958 855 3583 1645 1210 2663 3588 7662 5578 1391 2717 1726 1461 1916 919 2744 4208 1700 1014 1861 7033 6707 2124 789 923 2944 1820 951 857 2640 743 13610 6223 985 1023 4411 1484 2522 1330 841 5689 879 9409 2467 1182 5746 5550 442 885 1089 1386 1593 1192 6370 2110 1649 890 1152 700 1583 4154 1601 894 2029 2196 942 978 1122 523 1981 5723 2812 1396 564 1136 1206 2799 1528 3886 1334 2822 1287 3342 832 2919 3616 759 2665 435 950 3687 1624 1487 1865 4239 1638 1155 4138 1623 2875 1269 689 2523 1945 1304 1429 5645 2371 13830 6966 4266 3767 26460 12390 755 3095 1471 1543 21540 3881 1399 368 703 23400 1838 2546 648 556 2486 510 702 1238 4047 2450 1074 1334 2024 9802 2731 4680 509 2281 2950 1094 1170 2829 424 2505 4827 1092 1343 3806 6047 1185 12750 2281 1565 11860 2375 3720 3061 2626 2429 5762 1907 4640 3084 1153 1543 1650 2494 779 9840 684 2570 434 9124 1383 1017 2899 1300 369 498 10490 8158 1574 898 8701 1526 1000 20700 4054 2279 4169 1069 882 1057 2032 3878 460 1304 1585 1593 811 911 1387 2921 796 2389 4038 2659 1661 3851 1148 1493 6575 2528 1664 809 8650 5476 5433 1522 983 8230 975 2299 1781 2646 8631 1490 791 761 2669 1351 1168 647 1640 1081 1847 889 1227 210 4145 7285 962 816 1191 9860 6339 3532 4047 7135 1897 1471 1386 1094 1034 1213 1229 274 3820 1030 1168 1386 3039 13690 3647 1305 1757 8989 1079 1494 5535 1237 950 1305 1552 2889 1300 4146
2020-11-07 434 1061 2199 907 2515 1771 1930 659 2721 5133 8669 1791 2190 1773 2470 2496 2645 2820 26550 1983 7383 4432 1691 12470 974 4869 1055 23190 1042 1328 4401 997 2903 9141 866 3630 1657 1233 2698 3634 7782 5685 1404 2740 1754 1481 1939 932 2784 4226 1723 1026 1889 7129 6813 2209 794 935 2977 1850 964 865 2673 753 13820 6317 999 1027 4481 1496 2604 1345 856 5924 896 9582 2503 1200 5925 5608 446 896 1097 1401 1678 1211 6509 2157 1667 901 1162 714 1606 4200 1615 907 2054 2232 974 997 1130 531 2019 5819 2858 1431 573 1142 1230 2839 1551 3938 1364 2850 1309 3387 837 2965 3660 777 2702 440 969 3751 1636 1509 1900 4333 1666 1168 4197 1636 2925 1283 696 2554 1964 1317 1438 5843 2411 14110 6996 4346 3811 26790 12520 764 3133 1486 1586 21700 3936 1418 374 713 23640 1858 2593 661 568 2510 520 715 1251 4113 2492 1095 1355 2058 9887 2754 4755 525 2332 3053 1115 1205 2905 428 2570 4927 1116 1369 3857 6105 1194 12910 2334 1585 12180 2401 3772 3095 2663 2483 5868 1941 4715 3162 1170 1560 1686 2513 790 9990 696 2623 440 9268 1403 1028 2946 1320 373 506 10700 8299 1596 904 8701 1563 1015 20930 4163 2305 4240 1084 899 1070 2080 4030 473 1324 1603 1621 822 936 1411 2980 805 2479 4085 2716 1687 3878 1185 1511 6644 2612 1689 826 8849 5587 5545 1546 1015 8349 982 2330 1844 2697 8738 1539 802 774 2697 1365 1182 660 1661 1096 1880 899 1253 213 4201 7415 970 826 1202 9990 6494 3576 4086 7243 1933 1491 1407 1108 1049 1232 1241 279 3849 1061 1184 1401 3086 13920 3696 1329 1784 9041 1095 1515 5656 1260 970 1326 1584 2924 1330 4199
2020-11-08 437 1077 2262 915 2543 1781 1958 669 2763 5171 8805 1815 2221 1793 2536 2550 2677 2861 26870 2022 7470 4480 1725 12710 987 4923 1069 23580 1053 1342 4455 1015 2952 9309 877 3677 1666 1247 2729 3682 7888 5793 1423 2764 1790 1501 1968 945 2824 4287 1745 1038 1889 7199 6921 2297 800 948 3013 1879 977 874 2706 762 14030 6383 1013 1031 4552 1510 2688 1360 870 6169 913 9775 2529 1218 6109 5659 451 906 1109 1421 1767 1223 6646 2205 1684 911 1171 729 1629 4247 1639 921 2080 2268 1007 1000 1135 540 2057 5917 2901 1467 583 1148 1256 2880 1574 3989 1394 2876 1332 3428 840 3016 3692 795 2731 445 988 3801 1647 1531 1935 4429 1694 1181 4233 1650 2975 1297 702 2576 1980 1330 1447 6046 2452 14420 7032 4426 3857 27120 12650 774 3171 1501 1631 21780 3982 1434 379 723 23860 1878 2624 675 579 2540 528 728 1265 4180 2533 1111 1375 2093 9992 2812 4830 543 2383 3157 1137 1242 2983 433 2637 5029 1140 1396 3907 6152 1201 13080 2373 1605 12500 2428 3820 3128 2697 2537 5975 1976 4791 3242 1188 1577 1723 2535 801 10110 707 2676 445 9411 1423 1040 2979 1332 378 513 10910 8345 1624 915 8735 1601 1029 21150 4276 2342 4312 1098 916 1084 2118 4189 485 1344 1620 1649 833 945 1436 3039 815 2570 4134 2750 1714 3906 1214 1528 6708 2699 1718 844 9052 5700 5646 1570 1022 8470 988 2362 1909 2717 8873 1547 812 788 2755 1379 1197 675 1683 1110 1913 911 1280 217 4247 7546 978 836 1209 10150 6653 3620 4121 7350 1969 1511 1428 1122 1064 1251 1251 285 3903 1093 1201 1402 3123 14120 3725 1332 1810 9101 1112 1536 5719 1284 990 1347 1618 2963 1360 4253

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-02 to 2020-11-08

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-01 402 960 1857 864 2251 1712 1762 601 2472 4677 7367 1652 2010 1639 2091 1998 2457 2558 24668 1766 6884 3908 1425 11124 896 4222 972 20237 973 1156 4085 893 2617 7541 801 3350 1503 1028 2371 3357 6951 5048 1231 2472 1472 1350 1784 854 2512 3965 1590 954 1639 6469 6183 1748 762 861 2632 1673 827 815 2475 640 12549 5660 916 997 4079 1377 2138 1256 768 4616 797 8138 2189 1096 4927 5058 418 832 999 1282 1221 1046 5473 1880 1562 839 1109 627 1472 3791 1450 828 1914 2014 795 857 1072 479 1796 5234 2453 1225 519 1107 1085 2595 1414 3634 1183 2548 1178 2963 771 2546 3357 673 2430 409 857 3243 1569 1382 1693 3797 1496 1087 3603 1553 2630 1198 657 2275 1778 1240 1385 4698 2174 11819 6521 3892 3384 23953 11476 708 2909 1399 1337 19687 3573 1297 342 651 21390 1746 2208 585 501 2244 471 637 1170 3721 2235 889 1231 1855 9148 2501 4307 432 2035 2455 994 1009 2471 403 2201 4356 975 1143 3558 5597 1060 11917 1987 1468 10408 2248 3416 2891 2312 2167 5261 1746 4269 2712 1067 1456 1473 2251 723 8899 630 2309 409 7864 1283 900 2548 1172 346 461 9480 7002 1413 867 8402 1353 930 18796 3544 2084 3822 994 801 990 1722 3195 399 1206 1420 1461 756 831 1275 2636 750 1958 3800 2335 1531 3569 1014 1409 5989 2130 1402 727 7725 4934 4780 1404 761 7652 912 2143 1486 2367 7606 1154 739 693 2228 1281 1095 579 1530 1009 1684 838 1094 191 3673 6646 923 766 1102 8434 5620 3161 3692 6346 1723 1371 1280 1028 959 1119 1134 246 3461 883 1086 1230 2699 11727 3335 1155 1621 8324 999 1390 4782 1121 850 1201 1400 2573 1147 3877
2020-11-02 406 978 1918 883 2301 1722 1798 608 2515 4755 7579 1671 2034 1662 2156 2073 2485 2607 25100 1801 7016 3982 1480 11340 912 4318 992 20720 985 1185 4141 910 2671 7813 811 3390 1541 1054 2430 3410 7103 5155 1256 2524 1518 1368 1820 868 2552 4047 1608 968 1674 6595 6303 1794 776 871 2694 1698 846 823 2508 658 12790 5769 933 1012 4136 1397 2182 1273 781 4757 814 8403 2238 1112 5111 5174 423 852 1019 1302 1275 1066 5640 1937 1580 851 1133 640 1489 3856 1480 845 1973 2033 813 869 1082 488 1834 5334 2519 1248 529 1120 1112 2635 1435 3676 1211 2597 1202 3037 782 2613 3410 685 2472 413 875 3345 1590 1401 1738 3878 1527 1100 3670 1568 2683 1214 662 2312 1804 1251 1408 4901 2207 12230 6581 3974 3463 24580 11670 716 2939 1439 1376 19930 3624 1328 347 665 21790 1794 2276 598 512 2285 479 644 1184 3784 2281 913 1249 1911 9266 2567 4401 443 2081 2583 1016 1043 2531 407 2253 4449 999 1185 3605 5677 1078 12070 2041 1489 10660 2271 3504 2933 2364 2222 5366 1776 4345 2766 1095 1476 1501 2303 734 9110 640 2355 416 8150 1303 922 2610 1192 350 469 9730 7212 1451 882 8491 1386 944 19140 3614 2124 3900 1009 816 1005 1775 3294 406 1222 1455 1485 770 850 1295 2687 769 2033 3849 2395 1556 3626 1040 1424 6116 2194 1471 742 7901 5041 4921 1431 784 7757 922 2174 1536 2417 7800 1201 748 709 2311 1291 1108 590 1565 1021 1723 853 1128 197 3790 6777 931 777 1119 8770 5744 3252 3748 6504 1768 1400 1300 1041 973 1138 1156 253 3552 906 1105 1252 2767 12120 3386 1180 1653 8485 1017 1412 4897 1153 861 1225 1429 2626 1173 3926
2020-11-03 412 996 1983 903 2357 1732 1831 620 2560 4833 7794 1694 2067 1690 2232 2174 2512 2656 25540 1842 7177 4066 1541 11580 927 4441 1009 21220 997 1208 4201 937 2732 8137 823 3441 1573 1083 2483 3459 7260 5277 1290 2571 1572 1388 1854 880 2588 4151 1632 985 1709 6711 6428 1853 794 883 2763 1730 862 831 2547 676 13020 5878 948 1027 4204 1417 2226 1289 794 4919 832 8673 2301 1128 5300 5265 427 873 1033 1324 1335 1087 5797 1993 1599 863 1166 654 1511 3928 1514 860 2028 2049 839 885 1094 499 1875 5443 2579 1273 545 1136 1135 2679 1459 3724 1240 2650 1229 3092 794 2682 3469 700 2518 419 898 3427 1615 1426 1781 3973 1561 1115 3748 1582 2741 1228 670 2359 1834 1264 1431 5085 2251 12600 6655 4060 3536 25110 11860 727 2981 1482 1418 20140 3681 1356 353 679 22200 1860 2343 611 522 2331 487 652 1200 3852 2326 938 1272 1961 9377 2650 4481 456 2139 2694 1039 1076 2594 412 2313 4541 1028 1212 3659 5766 1098 12200 2088 1515 10950 2297 3566 2973 2429 2287 5471 1809 4427 2824 1118 1496 1538 2350 747 9320 650 2406 423 8406 1325 942 2668 1208 355 477 9980 7393 1484 902 8598 1419 960 19510 3696 2171 3984 1025 835 1021 1842 3418 420 1246 1488 1510 780 865 1320 2747 783 2112 3898 2466 1578 3680 1063 1443 6232 2267 1518 755 8106 5153 5058 1459 805 7884 935 2208 1581 2475 8012 1246 761 725 2384 1303 1124 600 1598 1036 1760 871 1165 204 3880 6910 939 787 1136 9050 5894 3329 3820 6655 1821 1423 1323 1054 988 1159 1172 260 3612 931 1122 1279 2842 12520 3449 1203 1681 8604 1034 1436 5024 1183 876 1248 1461 2684 1198 3978
2020-11-04 419 1014 2046 926 2424 1743 1863 631 2614 4907 8021 1717 2100 1720 2310 2273 2537 2707 26040 1882 7347 4142 1597 11820 944 4566 1029 21670 1011 1239 4262 963 2790 8474 835 3493 1602 1112 2536 3510 7411 5404 1322 2615 1628 1409 1890 890 2626 4271 1654 1000 1743 6835 6550 1914 812 896 2813 1763 880 840 2586 694 13260 5996 964 1040 4274 1436 2269 1306 807 5091 850 8943 2363 1144 5497 5358 431 894 1051 1346 1397 1107 5960 2048 1617 877 1200 669 1532 3996 1546 875 2087 2065 864 898 1105 509 1915 5560 2640 1298 561 1152 1159 2723 1482 3773 1269 2710 1252 3147 808 2749 3524 714 2562 425 920 3503 1638 1449 1825 4068 1593 1129 3828 1596 2800 1241 678 2406 1866 1277 1455 5278 2295 13000 6728 4139 3602 25670 12070 738 3024 1528 1463 20340 3739 1390 359 694 22600 1927 2406 623 532 2374 495 660 1214 3920 2370 963 1296 2004 9487 2727 4563 469 2197 2802 1065 1108 2658 415 2371 4633 1057 1248 3713 5853 1120 12320 2125 1542 11250 2323 3639 3010 2497 2354 5579 1842 4508 2883 1143 1518 1577 2399 760 9520 661 2457 427 8661 1348 959 2730 1230 359 486 10240 7580 1510 922 8707 1452 976 19860 3779 2219 4062 1040 853 1035 1910 3546 432 1271 1517 1533 795 884 1343 2813 801 2186 3947 2532 1603 3740 1089 1461 6339 2341 1576 770 8309 5271 5197 1490 832 8012 944 2240 1629 2537 8216 1289 773 743 2465 1316 1140 612 1633 1050 1793 888 1201 209 3987 7045 947 797 1154 9330 6045 3402 3888 6814 1871 1445 1346 1068 1004 1180 1196 267 3663 956 1138 1302 2908 12860 3514 1228 1712 8731 1053 1458 5147 1209 891 1275 1492 2745 1224 4032
2020-11-05 426 1032 2114 947 2487 1754 1897 643 2662 4980 8236 1739 2133 1738 2390 2347 2563 2757 26520 1924 7507 4229 1647 12070 959 4698 1046 22160 1021 1264 4319 988 2849 8798 846 3546 1633 1141 2585 3557 7576 5529 1353 2653 1687 1429 1931 904 2666 4385 1676 1014 1775 6942 6677 1977 831 908 2874 1795 898 848 2626 716 13490 6111 979 1057 4343 1455 2306 1324 821 5268 869 9188 2426 1160 5702 5469 436 914 1063 1365 1463 1127 6131 2109 1635 894 1232 683 1554 4077 1578 894 2148 2081 891 914 1117 520 1953 5672 2695 1324 577 1169 1183 2768 1505 3821 1298 2762 1276 3204 820 2817 3567 728 2605 431 942 3582 1660 1472 1867 4167 1624 1145 3911 1609 2859 1255 685 2454 1898 1290 1479 5473 2340 13400 6804 4218 3661 26180 12300 749 3067 1571 1511 20560 3797 1420 365 708 22970 1997 2471 635 542 2419 503 668 1230 3986 2416 996 1320 2053 9595 2811 4648 482 2257 2921 1087 1144 2723 419 2435 4726 1087 1288 3768 5943 1144 12430 2168 1568 11540 2352 3703 3043 2564 2420 5685 1876 4590 2939 1171 1536 1616 2436 774 9710 672 2509 433 8891 1371 976 2802 1241 364 493 10490 7754 1534 942 8817 1485 993 20190 3864 2264 4145 1056 873 1049 1984 3678 445 1296 1544 1558 808 904 1365 2873 817 2270 3995 2599 1624 3787 1112 1479 6444 2416 1630 785 8514 5386 5352 1519 858 8142 958 2276 1676 2594 8410 1332 785 759 2540 1328 1156 623 1662 1065 1831 907 1237 214 4062 7177 955 807 1171 9580 6196 3472 3957 6970 1920 1471 1369 1080 1019 1201 1218 274 3725 981 1157 1326 2982 13200 3584 1249 1741 8838 1072 1483 5256 1237 906 1296 1524 2806 1250 4087
2020-11-06 433 1050 2183 970 2567 1765 1936 654 2713 5062 8452 1761 2166 1762 2473 2437 2589 2794 27030 1967 7688 4312 1720 12320 972 4820 1063 22620 1032 1290 4378 1014 2904 9150 858 3599 1663 1169 2639 3601 7748 5657 1379 2695 1746 1449 1974 919 2704 4499 1698 1026 1817 7051 6787 2042 849 921 2931 1828 917 857 2667 733 13690 6218 992 1077 4412 1474 2351 1340 834 5450 888 9487 2490 1177 5876 5581 440 935 1074 1382 1530 1147 6291 2170 1654 907 1264 697 1575 4151 1609 909 2206 2097 918 929 1128 530 1997 5779 2752 1350 594 1185 1214 2813 1529 3870 1328 2816 1301 3266 832 2871 3617 742 2650 437 964 3664 1682 1497 1907 4256 1656 1157 3993 1623 2922 1269 693 2501 1928 1304 1504 5643 2385 13750 6880 4299 3725 26650 12480 760 3111 1617 1560 20740 3857 1442 372 718 23370 2070 2521 648 553 2463 511 676 1244 4061 2462 1022 1344 2079 9705 2900 4734 495 2317 3045 1107 1177 2790 425 2497 4815 1117 1313 3824 6034 1167 12560 2216 1591 11850 2379 3750 3079 2631 2480 5795 1910 4675 2998 1197 1556 1656 2478 787 9920 683 2562 438 9133 1394 995 2860 1260 367 499 10740 7958 1562 964 8930 1520 1010 20550 3951 2312 4231 1072 892 1063 2042 3815 456 1321 1574 1582 821 925 1388 2933 831 2368 4045 2667 1647 3845 1133 1498 6541 2491 1689 800 8723 5505 5510 1545 881 8274 972 2310 1722 2653 8618 1373 797 770 2628 1340 1173 633 1688 1079 1874 923 1266 217 4147 7301 963 817 1185 9870 6351 3561 4024 7103 1973 1491 1392 1097 1035 1222 1246 280 3784 1008 1175 1345 3056 13550 3651 1279 1771 8943 1088 1510 5357 1263 922 1319 1556 2868 1277 4141
2020-11-07 439 1069 2245 992 2624 1776 1965 666 2755 5122 8661 1782 2201 1782 2559 2494 2615 2832 27490 2008 7856 4389 1771 12570 985 4933 1080 23020 1040 1308 4438 1042 2966 9435 869 3654 1679 1197 2687 3639 7897 5791 1405 2727 1803 1470 2004 929 2740 4628 1719 1038 1844 7163 6885 2110 869 934 2980 1862 933 865 2706 747 13840 6323 1006 1096 4482 1492 2399 1357 848 5632 907 9755 2550 1193 6054 5655 445 957 1080 1399 1597 1165 6458 2226 1672 915 1299 712 1598 4223 1640 922 2264 2114 946 942 1138 541 2031 5891 2807 1377 612 1202 1238 2858 1553 3920 1358 2857 1325 3323 840 2908 3657 757 2693 443 985 3726 1705 1520 1942 4349 1688 1167 4073 1637 2977 1285 701 2548 1957 1318 1527 5823 2432 14040 6951 4377 3771 27010 12640 772 3155 1662 1606 20910 3914 1466 378 726 23690 2144 2557 662 563 2506 520 685 1258 4127 2509 1042 1370 2100 9813 2981 4803 509 2376 3162 1127 1209 2859 428 2563 4893 1148 1338 3881 6120 1187 12680 2263 1617 12150 2404 3804 3107 2696 2542 5891 1943 4762 3070 1219 1573 1697 2500 801 10070 694 2616 442 9346 1417 1012 2914 1278 372 507 10940 8110 1581 984 9038 1555 1027 20870 4040 2356 4301 1088 910 1077 2107 3959 468 1347 1598 1606 830 946 1408 2995 843 2451 4092 2728 1668 3875 1155 1517 6631 2570 1724 814 8930 5619 5639 1569 901 8409 981 2344 1763 2702 8797 1409 810 779 2675 1353 1190 644 1716 1094 1907 940 1286 219 4211 7431 970 825 1198 10060 6517 3614 4092 7222 2018 1510 1415 1111 1051 1244 1262 285 3822 1035 1192 1369 3108 13820 3719 1304 1800 9024 1103 1531 5453 1284 938 1341 1584 2929 1304 4194
2020-11-08 445 1088 2309 1012 2679 1786 1992 678 2800 5188 8849 1803 2236 1797 2647 2565 2641 2865 27930 2050 8029 4467 1814 12830 999 5038 1098 23420 1050 1349 4490 1068 3021 9719 882 3709 1695 1224 2734 3680 8040 5917 1437 2753 1868 1491 2041 939 2772 4762 1741 1048 1864 7253 7000 2181 888 947 3030 1897 949 874 2745 761 14000 6419 1021 1114 4552 1511 2433 1372 862 5828 926 9999 2605 1210 6239 5724 449 977 1091 1417 1667 1183 6589 2289 1690 924 1333 728 1620 4291 1672 936 2317 2131 973 949 1148 551 2074 6010 2863 1405 630 1218 1264 2900 1577 3969 1388 2907 1347 3365 849 2961 3693 770 2735 449 1005 3790 1728 1542 1979 4435 1719 1176 4152 1651 3034 1298 709 2595 1989 1331 1551 6012 2479 14340 7023 4446 3817 27330 12800 784 3200 1710 1656 21070 3969 1483 383 736 24000 2221 2582 674 574 2551 528 693 1272 4188 2556 1065 1395 2114 9925 3062 4878 524 2445 3273 1150 1239 2929 430 2626 4968 1180 1362 3938 6203 1206 12790 2296 1644 12460 2426 3849 3139 2765 2604 5990 1975 4842 3132 1242 1591 1739 2528 815 10240 706 2671 446 9551 1441 1027 2967 1291 376 513 11140 8221 1601 1005 9151 1586 1044 21190 4132 2399 4371 1104 929 1090 2164 4108 479 1373 1619 1630 839 960 1429 3061 853 2528 4140 2783 1688 3908 1177 1536 6708 2651 1769 830 9148 5736 5761 1596 918 8546 988 2381 1806 2745 8983 1437 822 791 2749 1366 1207 653 1743 1110 1945 958 1312 222 4256 7554 978 833 1208 10250 6677 3667 4155 7341 2068 1527 1439 1123 1068 1266 1271 291 3863 1062 1207 1386 3156 14080 3780 1317 1827 9100 1120 1552 5526 1296 953 1363 1616 2991 1332 4245

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.