COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-03

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	10-21	--	--	10-21	04-16	--	10-21	--	10-23	10-21	10-09	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	10-21	--	--	10-20	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	10-13	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-06	--	--	10-21	--	09-27	--	10-23	--	--	10-20	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-21	10-23	--	--	--	10-12	10-18	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	10-14	04-21	10-20	10-13	--	--	--	10-18	--	09-28	--	10-08	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	09-28	--	--	10-20	--	09-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	05-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-15	09-29	--	10-21	--	--	10-23	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-12	--	10-20	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	09-25	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	10-21	10-14	--	10-04	10-21	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-21	10-21	--	--	--	--	10-07	--	--	10-21	--	10-20	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	10-07
Peak daily increment		34			67	22		12		81	198	28										97								55			67			55			57	73			32	49						128									61	34								39		22											7											17	28			17		85		17			42		71							70				60	12				46	6			26							29		17	16	50	33				47		152		79				46			478			6		436							10							225				59					15							23	445		29			66		66								40	45		191		63					65		8						183			391					19											65									117					122				129					180		13	15		21	17			17													70				24	16					77			25		337				140								68		90
Days since peak		13			13	201		13		11	13	25										23								19			13			14			23	37			21	23						14									21	20								16		21											35											23	28			13		37		11			14		23							38				13	11				22	16			14							184		20	196	14	21				16		36		26				14			36			14		41							194							38				14					183							19	35		13			11		14								23	22		14		23					22		39						35			35					13											21									22					19				22					14		13	20		30	13			30													13				13	13					27			13		14				36								14		27
Last total	419	1002	2055	927	2387	1759	1877	628	2619	4872	7793	1684	2085	1719	2321	2121	2530	2742	25998	1893	7289	4102	1571	11658	943	4517	1020	21381	1026	1185	4291	940	2766	8248	844	3485	1582	1101	2509	3455	7351	5347	1286	2582	1607	1404	1895	903	2625	4230	1665	1007	1713	6759	6465	1884	820	904	2747	1742	875	850	2602	683	13132	5948	947	1050	4259	1436	2236	1327	826	5055	836	8710	2318	1158	5452	5351	444	900	1053	1345	1388	1116	5942	2045	1612	863	1178	660	1515	3981	1535	859	2022	2071	851	886	1102	518	1863	5553	2588	1293	568	1177	1130	2740	1498	3761	1269	2652	1245	3080	797	2728	3506	722	2549	420	934	3491	1644	1427	1806	4027	1577	1140	3776	1612	2765	1244	697	2377	1838	1290	1456	5333	2255	12637	6705	4050	3461	25135	12056	738	3046	1531	1451	20171	3777	1386	358	688	22268	1915	2407	646	540	2333	489	658	1233	3906	2353	954	1305	1977	9519	2689	4564	467	2143	2855	1052	1127	2664	417	2390	4595	1059	1243	3777	5845	1098	12359	2074	1548	11054	2335	3555	3002	2437	2362	5482	1841	4517	2875	1183	1523	1558	2329	760	9366	664	2456	427	8306	1340	949	2653	1214	366	486	9988	7518	1534	935	8670	1442	974	19528	3816	2207	4003	1044	829	1036	1894	3511	420	1259	1517	1508	797	906	1336	2730	793	2166	3988	2491	1614	3684	1071	1473	6233	2334	1554	765	8135	5217	5168	1497	815	8019	953	2253	1624	2513	8015	1259	774	718	2424	1311	1136	610	1665	1036	1790	908	1229	207	3919	6986	963	797	1155	9039	5998	3316	3826	6610	1853	1419	1324	1065	1011	1208	1190	263	3582	968	1155	1260	2835	12453	3535	1225	1719	8591	1060	1446	5086	1200	886	1277	1519	2702	1242	3998
Last daily increment	4	16	63	31	42	17	46	10	57	74	175	13	30	30	114	61	26	66	584	42	187	87	62	232	14	141	21	499	27	12	98	17	60	329	25	51	27	33	44	46	165	130	28	44	57	17	47	16	50	91	29	21	34	119	115	54	21	20	44	20	20	18	49	23	224	124	9	23	58	22	48	30	25	164	15	234	52	20	217	112	8	25	16	27	67	27	210	65	20	12	21	19	20	76	35	13	37	25	23	18	13	13	21	150	55	26	17	31	19	58	37	52	33	36	28	44	9	85	50	26	48	5	34	99	33	18	59	81	27	15	78	22	55	17	15	49	22	17	38	272	36	357	74	51	31	525	259	11	48	39	42	211	79	30	11	17	357	76	75	26	11	34	5	6	20	87	49	28	31	63	181	80	104	15	40	137	22	38	87	8	85	97	31	34	76	122	15	146	33	35	259	38	68	46	59	76	101	36	85	80	66	25	40	30	24	216	14	61	5	193	20	33	32	18	10	12	191	239	60	28	103	39	23	304	90	49	78	17	10	18	65	122	8	25	42	14	16	25	26	42	19	114	96	67	47	35	18	24	101	80	60	11	148	98	177	32	31	197	17	57	48	64	152	46	13	10	88	15	23	14	57	6	40	35	61	8	85	152	21	13	26	251	169	59	52	128	58	18	17	15	23	40	25	5	55	33	22	14	56	278	85	35	31	88	25	26	142	34	13	27	48	58	40	60
Last week	41	146	423	138	355	87	253	65	293	419	1098	103	161	177	499	336	190	362	3080	250	917	425	329	1347	92	660	109	2709	85	70	404	121	287	1548	83	269	179	150	302	261	970	702	129	232	279	132	253	100	284	560	150	101	198	675	700	309	112	89	276	163	131	62	257	108	1433	686	81	129	376	113	247	141	110	949	102	1317	300	137	1137	594	46	147	103	134	347	156	1068	377	119	69	168	85	118	425	186	90	284	143	132	80	73	70	180	672	324	169	96	131	135	302	172	298	201	231	151	311	61	391	318	97	283	23	159	534	144	120	244	504	189	109	402	132	316	107	62	228	147	89	183	1347	200	2064	428	399	273	2908	1261	58	257	289	223	1251	464	190	34	76	2149	368	391	114	89	229	62	61	103	427	298	172	147	251	823	490	522	87	287	826	141	253	428	34	399	568	171	224	430	575	99	1018	251	150	1576	208	346	252	316	372	576	216	588	393	213	132	191	200	86	1123	74	304	36	1120	134	100	333	94	38	58	1303	1153	230	137	638	206	111	1930	566	296	475	115	83	102	374	715	61	104	195	142	93	154	134	275	105	438	389	370	162	271	165	124	567	450	307	87	1017	608	912	185	141	814	87	233	291	332	981	232	68	76	421	69	86	68	259	77	222	143	251	32	516	816	69	79	105	1442	845	379	335	757	295	145	124	75	98	168	133	43	338	174	142	96	353	1790	419	158	219	589	134	139	710	172	83	159	235	317	223	334
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												65																										40											73																																																												44									20												75	80																																						75																																																																														27
Low between peaks																																																																																																																													1									0																																																																																																																																	2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-04 to 2020-11-10

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-03	419	1002	2055	927	2387	1759	1877	628	2619	4872	7793	1684	2085	1719	2321	2121	2530	2742	25998	1893	7289	4102	1571	11658	943	4517	1020	21381	1026	1185	4291	940	2766	8248	844	3485	1582	1101	2509	3455	7351	5347	1286	2582	1607	1404	1895	903	2625	4230	1665	1007	1713	6759	6465	1884	820	904	2747	1742	875	850	2602	683	13132	5948	947	1050	4259	1436	2236	1327	826	5055	836	8710	2318	1158	5452	5351	444	900	1053	1345	1388	1116	5942	2045	1612	863	1178	660	1515	3981	1535	859	2022	2071	851	886	1102	518	1863	5553	2588	1293	568	1177	1130	2740	1498	3761	1269	2652	1245	3080	797	2728	3506	722	2549	420	934	3491	1644	1427	1806	4027	1577	1140	3776	1612	2765	1244	697	2377	1838	1290	1456	5333	2255	12637	6705	4050	3461	25135	12056	738	3046	1531	1451	20171	3777	1386	358	688	22268	1915	2407	646	540	2333	489	658	1233	3906	2353	954	1305	1977	9519	2689	4564	467	2143	2855	1052	1127	2664	417	2390	4595	1059	1243	3777	5845	1098	12359	2074	1548	11054	2335	3555	3002	2437	2362	5482	1841	4517	2875	1183	1523	1558	2329	760	9366	664	2456	427	8306	1340	949	2653	1214	366	486	9988	7518	1534	935	8670	1442	974	19528	3816	2207	4003	1044	829	1036	1894	3511	420	1259	1517	1508	797	906	1336	2730	793	2166	3988	2491	1614	3684	1071	1473	6233	2334	1554	765	8135	5217	5168	1497	815	8019	953	2253	1624	2513	8015	1259	774	718	2424	1311	1136	610	1665	1036	1790	908	1229	207	3919	6986	963	797	1155	9039	5998	3316	3826	6610	1853	1419	1324	1065	1011	1208	1190	263	3582	968	1155	1260	2835	12453	3535	1225	1719	8591	1060	1446	5086	1200	886	1277	1519	2702	1242	3998
2020-11-04	421	1021	2076	957	2444	1771	1921	639	2699	4959	7977	1705	2119	1744	2414	2199	2554	2803	26500	1938	7582	4240	1648	12000	969	4617	1052	21780	1038	1206	4362	959	2821	8510	859	3536	1611	1136	2576	3502	7396	5441	1338	2646	1668	1428	1953	922	2670	4347	1711	1032	1767	6860	6616	1937	838	911	2802	1773	882	859	2655	712	13190	6028	962	1080	4338	1462	2254	1370	844	5196	855	9195	2371	1193	5610	5546	448	924	1071	1366	1471	1139	6154	2112	1637	882	1183	674	1537	4064	1574	874	2131	2096	868	899	1112	531	1900	5698	2691	1325	568	1203	1154	2789	1520	3843	1298	2740	1267	3134	811	2783	3559	740	2590	425	968	3573	1667	1445	1877	4118	1628	1157	3849	1628	2827	1261	706	2447	1889	1309	1494	5591	2295	12830	6816	4117	3606	25580	12340	750	3089	1569	1494	20350	3845	1406	364	700	22690	1988	2505	666	550	2365	501	666	1262	4048	2394	978	1333	2019	9650	2741	4721	475	2194	3003	1056	1127	2740	422	2463	4700	1092	1246	3842	5930	1132	12650	2074	1574	11300	2374	3629	3019	2522	2464	5577	1860	4604	2994	1208	1550	1615	2404	776	9530	676	2514	436	8513	1367	970	2740	1227	372	500	10210	7735	1561	957	8778	1481	990	20020	3877	2252	4078	1060	845	1051	1993	3561	432	1281	1537	1535	807	925	1361	2818	809	2291	4046	2554	1646	3748	1071	1499	6387	2344	1620	771	8334	5330	5317	1541	870	8127	966	2293	1653	2571	8067	1318	786	731	2510	1325	1152	624	1707	1062	1879	937	1274	212	4027	7212	963	808	1169	9350	6153	3403	3913	6736	1933	1440	1345	1079	1028	1236	1226	271	3643	1000	1159	1280	2926	12830	3599	1254	1751	8796	1067	1464	5151	1202	895	1302	1552	2789	1287	4049
2020-11-05	425	1039	2131	980	2497	1783	1962	649	2756	5035	8156	1727	2152	1768	2505	2273	2576	2865	26980	1981	7778	4322	1692	12180	984	4710	1072	22260	1048	1226	4434	978	2873	8780	868	3586	1638	1169	2619	3547	7531	5534	1366	2685	1731	1451	1999	944	2729	4437	1741	1055	1803	6961	6747	1989	857	916	2856	1804	900	867	2705	741	13310	6105	976	1107	4387	1480	2273	1400	862	5337	873	9322	2424	1224	5827	5677	451	948	1084	1387	1538	1161	6368	2179	1660	900	1193	687	1558	4146	1611	888	2182	2119	885	912	1121	544	1937	5808	2748	1356	584	1228	1178	2834	1540	3892	1327	2788	1289	3187	823	2841	3609	757	2637	431	996	3664	1687	1463	1921	4205	1665	1179	3921	1644	2887	1277	714	2492	1920	1326	1531	5876	2335	13160	6883	4181	3653	26100	12610	761	3130	1607	1536	20510	3909	1431	369	716	23060	2061	2586	685	559	2398	511	674	1276	4123	2434	1018	1360	2059	9780	2794	4816	483	2243	3153	1068	1165	2815	426	2553	4804	1126	1276	3907	6011	1159	12830	2087	1598	11540	2412	3690	3042	2575	2562	5669	1893	4687	3080	1234	1571	1653	2441	791	9730	688	2570	444	8686	1393	991	2818	1231	377	512	10420	7950	1596	979	8870	1518	1005	20340	3936	2297	4151	1076	861	1066	2042	3606	445	1303	1561	1560	824	953	1386	2873	824	2379	4101	2616	1676	3773	1081	1522	6486	2401	1682	776	8533	5442	5460	1582	916	8256	985	2331	1691	2629	8170	1360	797	745	2595	1338	1167	637	1746	1078	1939	965	1323	217	4086	7376	968	822	1190	9560	6307	3465	3983	6860	1989	1461	1366	1093	1044	1263	1255	277	3704	1030	1178	1300	2996	13140	3659	1277	1783	8894	1088	1489	5235	1217	904	1326	1592	2842	1332	4097
2020-11-06	428	1058	2184	1008	2552	1794	2003	659	2813	5111	8336	1749	2185	1792	2601	2347	2598	2907	27480	2027	7972	4399	1766	12360	992	4755	1092	22670	1062	1246	4506	997	2926	9050	880	3636	1666	1203	2669	3592	7645	5629	1387	2722	1797	1475	2038	965	2784	4517	1771	1072	1841	7062	6857	2043	876	920	2910	1834	918	876	2758	762	13310	6182	991	1134	4431	1494	2290	1417	880	5484	891	9444	2478	1256	6024	5763	454	972	1096	1407	1602	1183	6528	2248	1684	909	1201	700	1580	4232	1649	902	2206	2144	902	924	1131	557	1974	5903	2801	1387	586	1253	1202	2878	1560	3929	1356	2834	1312	3241	836	2897	3661	775	2681	436	1018	3758	1708	1481	1967	4253	1698	1194	3994	1660	2949	1294	722	2535	1946	1345	1568	6157	2376	13440	6928	4246	3705	26570	12820	773	3172	1648	1580	20680	3973	1451	375	725	23450	2136	2666	704	570	2432	521	683	1295	4211	2474	1055	1388	2099	9900	2850	4918	492	2293	3314	1083	1196	2893	431	2631	4911	1161	1301	3973	6090	1180	13010	2101	1623	11790	2450	3728	3066	2630	2665	5761	1923	4769	3175	1263	1595	1689	2477	807	9930	700	2627	450	8865	1420	1011	2870	1236	382	525	10640	8170	1637	1001	8962	1555	1021	20670	3996	2344	4226	1091	877	1081	2078	3655	458	1326	1592	1585	841	980	1411	2907	840	2461	4168	2679	1707	3798	1103	1545	6561	2460	1742	782	8738	5554	5602	1613	961	8388	1003	2368	1722	2688	8266	1388	809	758	2684	1352	1182	650	1787	1089	1993	994	1359	222	4147	7487	975	835	1202	9740	6465	3542	4044	6983	2039	1482	1387	1106	1061	1292	1290	284	3764	1063	1192	1320	3061	13440	3722	1308	1816	8976	1100	1518	5326	1234	913	1349	1631	2910	1380	4145
2020-11-07	428	1076	2203	1031	2605	1805	2043	669	2851	5164	8514	1771	2218	1815	2697	2420	2619	2935	27970	2072	8079	4445	1810	12510	1004	4773	1111	22970	1070	1267	4570	1015	2977	9330	889	3685	1692	1237	2707	3637	7724	5721	1399	2748	1863	1498	2079	981	2822	4607	1799	1090	1868	7162	6936	2097	895	924	2964	1864	927	884	2809	782	13330	6258	1004	1160	4447	1508	2308	1435	898	5629	908	9533	2532	1287	6191	5838	457	996	1105	1427	1640	1205	6680	2317	1707	909	1206	713	1601	4317	1686	916	2228	2167	920	937	1140	570	2011	5975	2845	1419	586	1278	1227	2920	1578	3968	1386	2863	1334	3293	842	2938	3711	793	2716	441	1038	3853	1728	1500	1990	4309	1731	1202	4066	1674	3010	1309	730	2566	1965	1362	1606	6392	2416	13650	7000	4310	3748	26920	13000	785	3212	1688	1623	20830	4034	1467	380	736	23690	2211	2715	724	580	2465	531	691	1310	4285	2514	1074	1415	2137	10000	2905	4973	501	2342	3474	1093	1224	2970	435	2686	5017	1197	1315	4036	6168	1190	13130	2114	1646	12040	2487	3780	3085	2672	2766	5852	1944	4848	3242	1291	1613	1709	2496	822	10070	713	2682	454	9001	1447	1031	2918	1241	387	538	10860	8391	1665	1024	9032	1591	1035	20930	4054	2380	4298	1107	894	1096	2109	3703	470	1348	1608	1608	850	1008	1436	2948	856	2518	4215	2742	1738	3817	1122	1566	6638	2495	1782	788	8943	5665	5742	1644	994	8462	1014	2406	1746	2747	8335	1406	820	771	2773	1365	1197	664	1825	1100	2047	1023	1381	226	4192	7594	978	844	1213	9870	6622	3589	4086	7105	2075	1502	1408	1120	1076	1319	1305	291	3824	1095	1208	1340	3109	13650	3782	1331	1849	9040	1109	1531	5393	1242	922	1372	1662	2946	1428	4192
2020-11-08	429	1094	2246	1038	2658	1816	2082	679	2885	5203	8693	1792	2251	1838	2797	2494	2639	2958	28460	2118	8182	4492	1849	12660	1015	4773	1122	23300	1075	1287	4615	1033	3029	9610	894	3735	1719	1272	2736	3682	7778	5814	1416	2770	1933	1522	2117	991	2850	4693	1819	1101	1884	7264	7013	2152	915	927	3018	1894	940	892	2862	793	13330	6334	1019	1186	4447	1523	2326	1447	916	5779	926	9533	2587	1319	6281	5881	460	1019	1118	1448	1664	1227	6837	2388	1731	910	1206	727	1623	4403	1724	930	2231	2191	937	949	1149	584	2048	6059	2882	1451	586	1303	1252	2961	1596	4006	1416	2891	1357	3346	846	2975	3761	811	2742	446	1050	3951	1748	1518	2013	4330	1761	1206	4140	1689	3072	1325	737	2591	1978	1380	1645	6613	2456	13930	7041	4374	3792	27260	13140	797	3252	1729	1667	20990	4096	1480	386	749	23930	2289	2754	743	591	2499	540	699	1327	4337	2555	1095	1443	2177	10120	2962	5043	509	2392	3641	1099	1248	3049	439	2735	5126	1233	1333	4099	6247	1197	13260	2129	1670	12300	2525	3823	3100	2710	2872	5944	1952	4926	3294	1321	1627	1730	2519	838	10180	725	2739	458	9131	1474	1051	2953	1241	392	550	11070	8617	1704	1047	9136	1627	1050	21190	4113	2416	4371	1122	910	1111	2135	3751	484	1372	1615	1630	858	1025	1461	2996	873	2567	4237	2807	1769	3817	1128	1586	6701	2514	1821	794	9154	5777	5884	1667	1022	8552	1023	2444	1777	2807	8419	1429	831	784	2865	1379	1212	677	1863	1108	2083	1053	1410	231	4208	7674	981	853	1221	10000	6783	3618	4118	7228	2119	1522	1429	1133	1092	1348	1323	298	3884	1128	1219	1360	3145	13850	3841	1332	1883	9107	1116	1541	5468	1247	931	1395	1688	2984	1478	4239
2020-11-09	433	1112	2345	1063	2711	1827	2121	690	2963	5306	8874	1815	2284	1861	2900	2569	2658	3036	28970	2164	8402	4589	1931	12910	1035	4837	1152	23860	1097	1308	4714	1051	3081	9910	905	3784	1747	1309	2825	3728	7967	5910	1445	2829	2005	1546	2179	1026	2910	4840	1863	1130	1912	7367	7170	2209	935	931	3073	1925	952	900	2915	816	13450	6411	1033	1212	4508	1553	2345	1482	935	5933	944	9689	2644	1351	6566	6034	463	1043	1145	1469	1758	1249	7078	2462	1755	920	1218	740	1644	4492	1763	944	2288	2215	955	962	1159	598	2085	6218	2961	1484	596	1329	1277	3002	1614	4070	1447	2952	1381	3400	859	3049	3811	829	2803	452	1083	4051	1767	1536	2069	4434	1812	1231	4215	1704	3134	1341	745	2640	2013	1398	1685	7026	2497	14310	7130	4438	3842	27880	13420	810	3293	1772	1712	21150	4158	1515	391	767	24410	2370	2862	764	602	2534	550	707	1352	4435	2597	1127	1471	2217	10290	3020	5190	518	2443	3815	1121	1316	3131	443	2837	5237	1271	1376	4161	6328	1217	13520	2155	1694	12560	2563	3896	3142	2767	2982	6036	1995	5004	3386	1351	1659	1771	2567	853	10430	738	2795	471	9367	1501	1072	3023	1251	397	562	11290	8851	1766	1071	9283	1665	1065	21540	4172	2475	4445	1137	926	1126	2192	3799	497	1395	1655	1653	884	1075	1487	3049	889	2667	4317	2873	1800	3846	1152	1607	6836	2611	1922	799	9369	5890	6028	1727	1065	8724	1045	2482	1843	2869	8580	1473	842	798	2961	1392	1228	691	1902	1125	2168	1084	1481	236	4327	7850	991	869	1245	10300	6948	3708	4196	7352	2191	1543	1451	1147	1108	1377	1355	305	3944	1162	1248	1381	3214	14240	3902	1361	1917	9266	1141	1571	5584	1272	941	1418	1747	3056	1529	4286
2020-11-10	438	1131	2418	1095	2765	1838	2160	700	3024	5383	9056	1837	2318	1885	3008	2644	2678	3096	29490	2213	8599	4685	2011	13170	1051	4989	1173	24400	1116	1328	4804	1070	3133	10210	928	3834	1774	1346	2875	3774	8132	6007	1476	2874	2080	1571	2229	1034	2957	4926	1896	1152	1942	7472	7301	2268	956	935	3128	1955	972	909	2970	836	13710	6490	1047	1239	4553	1575	2363	1510	954	6091	962	9979	2702	1385	6826	6138	466	1068	1163	1490	1836	1272	7286	2537	1779	934	1247	753	1666	4582	1804	958	2340	2239	973	975	1169	612	2123	6372	3023	1518	616	1355	1303	3043	1633	4123	1479	2997	1405	3454	868	3132	3862	848	2857	457	1114	4154	1787	1555	2124	4521	1847	1245	4291	1719	3198	1357	752	2688	2040	1416	1726	7272	2538	14700	7205	4503	3891	28410	13680	822	3334	1815	1759	21300	4220	1547	397	783	24790	2454	2936	785	613	2569	559	715	1376	4523	2639	1157	1500	2258	10450	3078	5302	527	2494	3997	1143	1362	3215	447	2932	5350	1309	1412	4223	6410	1234	13680	2193	1718	12830	2602	3960	3191	2829	3096	6129	2034	5083	3447	1383	1683	1814	2606	870	10650	751	2853	476	9576	1529	1094	3067	1266	402	575	11510	9091	1823	1095	9378	1702	1079	21870	4233	2534	4520	1153	943	1141	2253	3849	511	1419	1700	1675	899	1100	1513	3095	907	2794	4406	2941	1833	3896	1173	1627	6941	2697	1989	805	9591	6004	6175	1760	1095	8894	1060	2522	1898	2932	8741	1515	854	811	3060	1406	1243	705	1942	1134	2208	1116	1543	241	4407	7987	1007	879	1268	10590	7118	3780	4258	7478	2253	1563	1472	1160	1124	1406	1381	312	4006	1197	1271	1402	3283	14560	3962	1390	1952	9361	1162	1598	5738	1303	950	1441	1800	3119	1582	4334

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-04 to 2020-11-10

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-03	419	1002	2055	927	2387	1759	1877	628	2619	4872	7793	1684	2085	1719	2321	2121	2530	2742	25998	1893	7289	4102	1571	11658	943	4517	1020	21381	1026	1185	4291	940	2766	8248	844	3485	1582	1101	2509	3455	7351	5347	1286	2582	1607	1404	1895	903	2625	4230	1665	1007	1713	6759	6465	1884	820	904	2747	1742	875	850	2602	683	13132	5948	947	1050	4259	1436	2236	1327	826	5055	836	8710	2318	1158	5452	5351	444	900	1053	1345	1388	1116	5942	2045	1612	863	1178	660	1515	3981	1535	859	2022	2071	851	886	1102	518	1863	5553	2588	1293	568	1177	1130	2740	1498	3761	1269	2652	1245	3080	797	2728	3506	722	2549	420	934	3491	1644	1427	1806	4027	1577	1140	3776	1612	2765	1244	697	2377	1838	1290	1456	5333	2255	12637	6705	4050	3461	25135	12056	738	3046	1531	1451	20171	3777	1386	358	688	22268	1915	2407	646	540	2333	489	658	1233	3906	2353	954	1305	1977	9519	2689	4564	467	2143	2855	1052	1127	2664	417	2390	4595	1059	1243	3777	5845	1098	12359	2074	1548	11054	2335	3555	3002	2437	2362	5482	1841	4517	2875	1183	1523	1558	2329	760	9366	664	2456	427	8306	1340	949	2653	1214	366	486	9988	7518	1534	935	8670	1442	974	19528	3816	2207	4003	1044	829	1036	1894	3511	420	1259	1517	1508	797	906	1336	2730	793	2166	3988	2491	1614	3684	1071	1473	6233	2334	1554	765	8135	5217	5168	1497	815	8019	953	2253	1624	2513	8015	1259	774	718	2424	1311	1136	610	1665	1036	1790	908	1229	207	3919	6986	963	797	1155	9039	5998	3316	3826	6610	1853	1419	1324	1065	1011	1208	1190	263	3582	968	1155	1260	2835	12453	3535	1225	1719	8591	1060	1446	5086	1200	886	1277	1519	2702	1242	3998
2020-11-04	425	1019	2126	957	2454	1775	1922	639	2686	4943	7991	1702	2119	1750	2425	2197	2560	2817	26560	1941	7495	4178	1641	11910	961	4648	1042	21850	1046	1199	4369	962	2812	8580	860	3537	1611	1130	2563	3500	7509	5489	1316	2625	1674	1427	1942	918	2673	4348	1693	1027	1749	6878	6593	1940	844	919	2787	1771	897	861	2652	702	13360	6069	962	1069	4332	1458	2282	1357	847	5244	856	9020	2373	1182	5675	5462	452	927	1075	1374	1459	1143	6149	2112	1633	878	1210	675	1535	4058	1570	874	2080	2093	876	899	1115	532	1896	5690	2646	1322	586	1201	1155	2797	1528	3814	1303	2707	1272	3133	809	2805	3565	741	2595	425	968	3581	1671	1447	1857	4129	1615	1159	3851	1633	2825	1262	710	2424	1868	1308	1489	5603	2293	13030	6779	4118	3510	25700	12310	749	3095	1586	1493	20350	3859	1427	365	703	22660	1990	2491	667	554	2377	498	666	1254	3998	2402	981	1334	2028	9660	2774	4666	481	2191	3018	1077	1167	2744	422	2468	4706	1094	1284	3855	5950	1118	12520	2108	1578	11350	2369	3621	3046	2500	2444	5580	1876	4616	2953	1229	1549	1595	2373	776	9570	677	2514	432	8511	1365	969	2707	1237	372	497	10220	7741	1574	962	8772	1480	992	19850	3916	2260	4081	1062	842	1053	1967	3642	432	1285	1552	1530	818	933	1361	2790	815	2258	4061	2560	1649	3738	1100	1496	6335	2404	1621	780	8323	5329	5340	1541	848	8161	966	2291	1682	2588	8177	1307	788	734	2505	1323	1153	624	1720	1051	1830	936	1280	212	4036	7145	976	810	1175	9310	6170	3385	3894	6742	1913	1441	1345	1078	1031	1241	1220	270	3629	999	1174	1277	2899	12770	3611	1253	1759	8713	1084	1468	5211	1231	901	1311	1561	2765	1282	4047
2020-11-05	432	1046	2198	979	2512	1786	1960	650	2735	5016	8182	1722	2153	1774	2512	2264	2588	2884	27080	1987	7661	4256	1696	12140	978	4802	1060	22350	1055	1223	4432	983	2863	8920	872	3587	1640	1158	2610	3543	7673	5615	1343	2663	1730	1448	1988	932	2715	4446	1714	1045	1782	6993	6715	1999	863	930	2844	1801	919	869	2701	723	13620	6181	977	1089	4402	1476	2315	1382	862	5420	875	9240	2435	1202	5893	5569	457	949	1088	1396	1525	1166	6337	2180	1651	898	1239	688	1555	4136	1602	892	2145	2112	901	916	1126	544	1929	5805	2698	1349	604	1221	1181	2850	1550	3861	1333	2760	1294	3185	821	2875	3612	756	2638	430	993	3667	1692	1469	1897	4228	1649	1177	3927	1648	2885	1278	718	2469	1898	1320	1518	5831	2333	13430	6838	4185	3558	26220	12540	760	3137	1635	1538	20520	3924	1461	370	716	23030	2060	2562	682	565	2421	508	674	1272	4055	2449	1015	1359	2073	9770	2860	4763	495	2247	3162	1100	1204	2813	426	2537	4805	1126	1324	3918	6042	1139	12650	2149	1603	11630	2397	3681	3081	2561	2515	5675	1911	4711	3010	1262	1568	1631	2409	790	9750	688	2565	439	8707	1387	986	2777	1248	377	505	10460	7929	1603	985	8863	1514	1008	20180	3999	2307	4161	1079	860	1069	2055	3771	444	1310	1580	1558	833	956	1384	2844	835	2346	4113	2629	1675	3781	1125	1514	6433	2484	1681	795	8520	5441	5491	1576	874	8286	980	2330	1734	2652	8348	1355	800	749	2592	1334	1169	636	1755	1065	1872	959	1319	218	4116	7282	983	820	1195	9560	6324	3455	3961	6875	1967	1464	1367	1090	1046	1265	1245	279	3688	1025	1195	1297	2972	13100	3678	1277	1793	8813	1109	1492	5326	1259	917	1333	1597	2824	1315	4092
2020-11-06	438	1062	2269	1005	2581	1798	2004	661	2787	5093	8375	1742	2187	1801	2607	2342	2616	2931	27600	2034	7839	4329	1769	12380	994	4909	1077	22800	1065	1248	4493	1007	2912	9230	885	3637	1669	1184	2660	3584	7834	5744	1365	2700	1785	1469	2027	945	2757	4539	1734	1059	1821	7113	6833	2060	882	940	2888	1832	941	878	2743	740	13820	6296	992	1109	4473	1493	2351	1404	877	5601	894	9440	2495	1221	6097	5641	463	971	1101	1414	1593	1189	6505	2250	1671	911	1268	702	1575	4217	1635	905	2191	2131	926	930	1137	555	1963	5917	2750	1376	620	1243	1211	2902	1573	3905	1364	2811	1320	3236	833	2940	3661	772	2682	436	1016	3751	1711	1492	1940	4311	1676	1191	4001	1664	2945	1294	726	2512	1924	1332	1548	6058	2374	13790	6895	4256	3608	26700	12730	773	3178	1686	1583	20680	3990	1492	376	726	23410	2131	2632	698	577	2466	516	682	1291	4124	2498	1048	1384	2107	9890	2951	4861	508	2302	3312	1124	1240	2883	432	2606	4902	1159	1354	3982	6135	1160	12800	2194	1628	11930	2424	3720	3114	2624	2584	5771	1945	4805	3071	1292	1590	1665	2445	804	9950	699	2617	444	8909	1411	1004	2831	1262	381	514	10690	8140	1636	1009	8959	1549	1024	20520	4084	2355	4244	1096	877	1085	2134	3904	454	1331	1615	1581	848	978	1407	2887	851	2441	4168	2707	1699	3823	1153	1532	6516	2565	1741	810	8719	5556	5635	1602	901	8412	996	2368	1783	2718	8517	1398	812	761	2682	1345	1186	646	1791	1078	1908	980	1354	222	4196	7402	991	831	1206	9800	6483	3544	4022	7010	2014	1486	1390	1103	1062	1290	1275	284	3740	1051	1214	1318	3045	13410	3741	1305	1827	8899	1126	1517	5439	1292	932	1355	1632	2886	1349	4135
2020-11-07	444	1078	2333	1029	2620	1809	2036	672	2824	5143	8568	1761	2222	1826	2697	2386	2643	2976	28120	2078	7948	4391	1820	12610	1010	4990	1094	23170	1073	1265	4554	1030	2960	9480	896	3688	1690	1211	2705	3622	7981	5862	1383	2731	1840	1489	2065	955	2796	4632	1751	1073	1847	7226	6946	2122	899	950	2927	1862	956	886	2779	756	13980	6411	1007	1129	4542	1509	2390	1426	892	5779	911	9630	2549	1240	6288	5695	468	994	1108	1432	1660	1210	6672	2312	1689	917	1295	715	1595	4292	1666	916	2227	2150	952	941	1148	566	1990	6024	2797	1403	633	1263	1233	2950	1594	3950	1394	2850	1340	3285	842	2984	3704	787	2723	441	1037	3824	1729	1515	1959	4391	1707	1202	4073	1679	3006	1309	735	2552	1948	1344	1577	6280	2415	14080	6948	4308	3642	27070	12910	782	3215	1735	1625	20810	4052	1519	381	736	23710	2204	2679	714	589	2507	526	690	1309	4187	2547	1071	1406	2139	9990	3039	4938	522	2355	3458	1144	1276	2955	435	2672	4991	1192	1379	4045	6221	1175	12910	2232	1653	12220	2448	3769	3141	2680	2647	5865	1978	4893	3130	1321	1606	1697	2461	817	10090	711	2669	447	9062	1430	1018	2881	1274	385	522	10900	8290	1661	1033	9042	1584	1040	20820	4170	2399	4318	1111	894	1097	2196	4042	466	1353	1637	1605	856	1004	1428	2935	867	2506	4221	2775	1722	3853	1181	1548	6596	2625	1784	824	8916	5664	5778	1629	923	8510	1005	2397	1831	2769	8663	1438	823	772	2732	1356	1202	658	1828	1092	1940	1001	1384	225	4258	7521	998	839	1217	9950	6641	3591	4076	7140	2047	1509	1412	1114	1078	1316	1288	291	3779	1078	1235	1333	3100	13640	3804	1329	1860	8965	1139	1538	5535	1314	948	1378	1666	2941	1383	4176
2020-11-08	450	1096	2403	1044	2667	1821	2070	683	2861	5200	8741	1779	2256	1850	2787	2446	2671	3013	28640	2123	8097	4455	1865	12850	1026	5061	1109	23590	1080	1305	4611	1052	3010	9710	907	3739	1708	1234	2748	3663	8116	5986	1409	2762	1896	1510	2108	963	2830	4741	1767	1083	1861	7335	7060	2187	918	961	2973	1894	973	893	2819	769	14190	6526	1023	1147	4609	1526	2425	1448	907	5970	929	9780	2605	1258	6465	5747	473	1013	1121	1452	1728	1231	6832	2377	1707	923	1313	729	1616	4370	1699	930	2266	2169	976	951	1159	577	2028	6141	2846	1431	645	1278	1258	3001	1615	3993	1425	2898	1359	3334	851	3034	3739	800	2761	447	1053	3890	1749	1536	1983	4467	1736	1211	4143	1694	3068	1325	743	2590	1973	1355	1605	6510	2456	14400	6998	4354	3684	27400	13070	793	3250	1787	1670	20940	4114	1538	386	748	24010	2280	2717	730	600	2552	534	698	1328	4242	2594	1094	1427	2167	10100	3120	5025	536	2417	3611	1164	1308	3028	437	2740	5071	1226	1403	4104	6306	1190	13020	2269	1679	12510	2467	3816	3164	2738	2709	5960	2010	4983	3185	1351	1622	1729	2486	830	10240	722	2721	449	9224	1455	1033	2925	1288	390	530	11100	8397	1688	1057	9128	1615	1056	21130	4258	2444	4389	1127	911	1107	2286	4185	476	1377	1654	1629	863	1019	1448	2993	880	2581	4268	2824	1745	3876	1206	1561	6672	2668	1821	839	9121	5775	5912	1647	939	8620	1011	2429	1880	2812	8820	1477	835	785	2814	1367	1218	667	1864	1104	1974	1023	1419	229	4309	7632	1005	846	1225	10130	6797	3639	4127	7265	2095	1529	1435	1127	1094	1342	1302	296	3822	1105	1252	1351	3148	13870	3860	1340	1892	9038	1154	1557	5632	1330	962	1400	1699	2999	1418	4217
2020-11-09	456	1115	2490	1067	2737	1832	2113	695	2927	5305	8953	1799	2292	1876	2881	2524	2701	3079	29210	2174	8298	4547	1931	13100	1046	5203	1135	24160	1094	1349	4681	1075	3084	10110	918	3791	1742	1270	2818	3713	8298	6135	1440	2816	1961	1532	2154	980	2872	4870	1791	1103	1896	7479	7195	2254	942	971	3048	1926	992	903	2873	791	14370	6649	1038	1169	4686	1551	2464	1476	922	6178	952	10080	2674	1278	6736	5894	478	1039	1144	1476	1808	1252	7029	2457	1728	936	1348	743	1637	4466	1737	948	2351	2187	1002	965	1170	592	2079	6273	2918	1460	659	1302	1290	3058	1638	4045	1458	2961	1386	3390	863	3118	3797	817	2811	453	1073	4010	1779	1559	2043	4578	1776	1229	4230	1709	3132	1341	752	2640	2007	1369	1637	6791	2499	14870	7064	4439	3761	28030	13280	807	3299	1845	1728	21130	4173	1572	392	760	24460	2360	2805	748	612	2605	541	706	1350	4315	2646	1126	1458	2199	10240	3200	5158	551	2477	3800	1191	1353	3104	441	2816	5180	1261	1451	4175	6403	1212	13170	2322	1705	12840	2493	3900	3204	2808	2794	6059	2048	5082	3247	1391	1646	1767	2539	844	10490	734	2775	460	9521	1479	1059	2995	1309	395	539	11390	8647	1733	1079	9248	1657	1073	21510	4349	2490	4475	1144	930	1125	2393	4335	487	1401	1695	1660	882	1053	1473	3053	902	2690	4328	2900	1775	3923	1229	1580	6807	2781	1915	857	9351	5904	6055	1689	962	8771	1026	2476	1939	2883	9033	1534	848	799	2933	1378	1235	680	1905	1119	2033	1046	1464	235	4447	7785	1014	857	1245	10490	6970	3748	4202	7409	2160	1553	1458	1143	1110	1368	1334	304	3903	1133	1277	1378	3226	14310	3922	1367	1929	9211	1177	1584	5767	1366	978	1428	1741	3065	1454	4266
2020-11-10	464	1129	2572	1094	2791	1844	2157	707	2979	5392	9167	1819	2327	1903	2985	2626	2730	3147	29780	2223	8508	4641	2014	13360	1066	5385	1155	24720	1105	1375	4752	1099	3156	10550	934	3844	1772	1303	2874	3755	8474	6281	1476	2863	2027	1553	2197	990	2911	4976	1819	1121	1934	7619	7329	2323	963	982	3123	1958	1011	913	2921	810	14650	6773	1054	1191	4762	1573	2506	1503	938	6383	973	10480	2757	1298	6995	6002	484	1064	1159	1501	1889	1276	7220	2530	1747	953	1390	757	1658	4554	1775	965	2433	2206	1029	983	1181	606	2122	6403	2982	1490	680	1327	1318	3113	1661	4097	1491	3019	1414	3444	874	3203	3855	834	2860	458	1096	4104	1807	1586	2098	4686	1817	1242	4311	1725	3198	1357	760	2691	2039	1381	1669	7023	2542	15310	7126	4523	3830	28570	13500	822	3346	1902	1775	21290	4237	1607	398	773	24880	2443	2884	766	625	2656	549	714	1373	4395	2698	1154	1486	2248	10370	3303	5270	566	2538	3966	1217	1397	3181	445	2894	5287	1298	1481	4238	6502	1232	13300	2378	1732	13180	2517	3963	3254	2881	2876	6161	2085	5180	3307	1424	1666	1808	2587	858	10710	746	2830	466	9803	1504	1081	3054	1330	399	547	11650	8860	1773	1105	9341	1696	1090	21890	4442	2543	4564	1161	950	1143	2508	4490	500	1425	1736	1688	890	1070	1501	3116	920	2801	4390	2992	1805	3981	1251	1598	6925	2879	1982	872	9582	6024	6206	1720	983	8908	1039	2516	2000	2956	9245	1589	861	815	3044	1389	1252	692	1945	1133	2083	1070	1510	243	4552	7926	1023	867	1265	10820	7143	3840	4275	7554	2225	1576	1482	1157	1126	1396	1358	313	3961	1162	1298	1405	3314	14720	3985	1392	1965	9330	1196	1611	5911	1407	995	1452	1781	3130	1491	4313

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-03 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-03