COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-06

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	10-23	--	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	10-13	10-11	10-24	--	10-25	--	--	10-16	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	10-11	09-29	--	--	--	10-25	09-27	--	10-23	--	--	10-12	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	10-23	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-23	--	--	--	--	10-25	05-03	10-18	--	--	10-17	10-13	--	--	--	10-18	--	09-28	--	10-08	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	09-28	--	--	10-15	--	09-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-24	--	--	10-26	09-27	09-29	--	--	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	05-04	10-26	--	10-25	--	--	--	10-15	09-29	--	--	10-24	--	10-12	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	10-26	--	10-11	10-12	--	--	--	10-11	--	10-23	--	10-18	10-12	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-25	04-22	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	10-08	--	--	--	10-25	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-23	--	--	--	--	10-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	10-15	--	10-26	10-26	--	10-01	--	--	10-15	--	10-23	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	10-12	--	10-07
Peak daily increment						22						28	39									96		245						44									56	74			31	48	53		41			116								15	61									34											231	109										15		17	28				56	85		14			40		71							72		54		59									23	22					75	29	59			48	33				45		155		79					55		490			6		427									72			27	62	229				55					15	84		34				23	471			276		63				98				46		41	45				63		207		21	65				233				191			403					18				11			25	18			66						59			116				190	122									174					21																		134				16		38	26		77			24		327				142					15			64		91
Days since peak						204						38	12									26		14						22									26	40			24	26	13		12			21								38	24									19											12	12										198		26	38				12	40		14			25		25							39		14		25									24	14					12	187	19			20	24				19		39		29					12		39			22		44									13			11	40	38				15					186	11		12				22	38			13		25				25				11		26	25				26		14		19	25				12				37			38					22				12			12	198			24						26			29				12	22									14					36																		11				22		11	11		36			22		14				39					11			25		30
Last total	438	1090	2300	963	2567	1819	2012	682	2852	5111	8253	1723	2200	1821	2529	2305	2613	2988	27612	2041	7695	4281	1723	12230	1034	4864	1085	22709	1096	1248	4593	1012	2942	9099	934	3652	1685	1181	2625	3623	7780	5785	1351	2705	1746	1480	2001	951	2745	4511	1737	1061	1808	7127	6838	2008	881	936	2873	1824	940	885	2779	734	13969	6328	1009	1098	4453	1531	2388	1457	892	5543	908	9249	2474	1246	6091	5672	473	989	1130	1427	1651	1236	6594	2250	1702	894	1253	706	1578	4215	1631	910	2147	2152	909	911	1158	552	1970	5959	2758	1352	606	1276	1213	2879	1590	3876	1372	2773	1331	3213	843	2918	3674	759	2707	437	1033	3807	1728	1469	1933	4290	1733	1197	3969	1681	2904	1305	746	2516	1907	1372	1537	6184	2357	13727	6888	4246	3580	26634	12704	766	3171	1686	1598	20698	3993	1497	374	728	23205	2093	2619	716	569	2463	513	690	1310	4140	2506	1012	1365	2126	10003	2922	4857	518	2268	3269	1102	1263	2936	446	2611	4879	1144	1386	4014	6213	1157	12825	2206	1644	11727	2438	3726	3159	2665	2528	5711	1932	4811	3142	1284	1604	1652	2437	805	9894	699	2557	461	8751	1422	1012	2748	1274	388	516	10526	8121	1797	999	9004	1533	1036	20441	4104	2356	4295	1105	871	1110	2098	3889	452	1341	1631	1579	853	988	1413	2834	884	2390	4206	2656	1706	3820	1170	1534	6458	2566	1720	815	8522	5553	5651	1582	932	8484	1000	2382	1810	2683	8384	1390	826	764	2680	1357	1179	643	1870	1101	1892	988	1376	227	4213	7371	1004	855	1223	9824	6407	3515	4045	6940	2003	1486	1386	1112	1060	1262	1258	291	3712	1056	1230	1310	2974	13176	3707	1287	1802	8848	1121	1560	5455	1308	913	1380	1640	2837	1363	4155
Last daily increment	7	22	61	3	53	25	38	10	53	80	136	4	37	31	64	35	28	70	472	44	93	64	52	163	32	49	16	473	21	21	86	22	41	178	27	53	37	22	32	28	103	127	12	44	45	18	31	14	39	77	18	8	27	127	80	37	10	13	28	20	18	17	57	16	246	129	17	12	68	32	50	26	30	172	20	140	22	30	164	95	14	24	16	32	79	41	228	61	32	8	10	10	18	75	36	17	42	21	9	10	16	5	23	120	41	5	5	24	20	42	28	27	35	37	19	41	19	73	49	11	54	5	4	83	16	18	34	77	40	11	50	22	32	11	4	39	25	32	19	276	32	364	57	65	34	472	214	6	36	46	52	169	57	32	11	13	261	57	65	29	8	38	8	13	18	78	44	12	9	39	166	63	84	12	38	113	14	43	85	5	45	106	22	53	66	134	21	125	40	33	161	39	49	50	34	12	53	20	86	82	30	21	33	18	16	128	20	23	10	150	22	22	24	15	10	10	128	175	100	11	108	26	15	256	92	51	75	14	10	20	64	83	9	36	31	20	21	25	18	25	28	61	70	30	22	33	29	15	64	76	46	17	99	84	151	25	40	139	9	44	45	31	90	39	18	12	72	10	7	4	68	16	27	27	44	10	83	125	14	23	19	251	96	55	68	82	40	16	23	19	9	24	15	6	37	29	16	14	42	219	41	5	28	72	24	41	93	36	4	32	21	29	37	46
Last week	41	155	485	104	342	112	274	84	391	458	1021	82	208	195	486	345	180	455	3221	295	923	412	333	1270	139	694	120	2812	128	95	534	124	329	1681	142	327	188	160	282	305	940	816	136	250	299	138	251	103	257	577	154	111	181	720	729	274	129	79	267	164	137	74	327	98	1631	729	103	112	391	165	297	211	134	1023	127	1267	302	161	1251	649	61	166	140	166	445	205	1261	395	153	56	155	93	117	471	199	94	265	160	122	58	93	76	201	812	335	141	92	169	149	304	192	273	213	247	163	286	70	411	332	92	298	31	188	605	169	93	261	539	266	113	400	142	297	119	91	257	143	139	169	1652	204	2180	410	393	237	3003	1333	59	265	312	270	1128	468	215	35	90	2030	366	432	137	80	251	52	60	140	458	300	133	144	284	962	465	592	94	266	900	123	278	520	46	448	592	186	272	476	679	105	987	264	189	1491	197	358	296	371	382	511	196	598	486	237	156	197	209	90	1103	74	283	54	1014	154	129	233	119	45	64	1193	1217	414	141	661	199	113	1806	605	307	505	120	76	134	395	756	61	140	222	137	107	164	144	244	147	480	440	347	190	272	178	134	529	467	343	102	923	648	958	185	180	917	91	262	385	344	883	255	89	85	498	83	91	70	369	98	220	161	309	41	584	825	90	98	129	1558	849	385	380	687	321	127	124	86	114	158	135	48	305	191	146	85	296	1623	390	139	203	583	132	181	750	201	65	200	245	301	238	324
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												65																										40											73																																																												43																					80	79																																						75																																																																														27
Low between peaks																																																																																																																													1																																																																																																																																										2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-07 to 2020-11-13

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-06	438	1090	2300	963	2567	1819	2012	682	2852	5111	8253	1723	2200	1821	2529	2305	2613	2988	27612	2041	7695	4281	1723	12230	1034	4864	1085	22709	1096	1248	4593	1012	2942	9099	934	3652	1685	1181	2625	3623	7780	5785	1351	2705	1746	1480	2001	951	2745	4511	1737	1061	1808	7127	6838	2008	881	936	2873	1824	940	885	2779	734	13969	6328	1009	1098	4453	1531	2388	1457	892	5543	908	9249	2474	1246	6091	5672	473	989	1130	1427	1651	1236	6594	2250	1702	894	1253	706	1578	4215	1631	910	2147	2152	909	911	1158	552	1970	5959	2758	1352	606	1276	1213	2879	1590	3876	1372	2773	1331	3213	843	2918	3674	759	2707	437	1033	3807	1728	1469	1933	4290	1733	1197	3969	1681	2904	1305	746	2516	1907	1372	1537	6184	2357	13727	6888	4246	3580	26634	12704	766	3171	1686	1598	20698	3993	1497	374	728	23205	2093	2619	716	569	2463	513	690	1310	4140	2506	1012	1365	2126	10003	2922	4857	518	2268	3269	1102	1263	2936	446	2611	4879	1144	1386	4014	6213	1157	12825	2206	1644	11727	2438	3726	3159	2665	2528	5711	1932	4811	3142	1284	1604	1652	2437	805	9894	699	2557	461	8751	1422	1012	2748	1274	388	516	10526	8121	1797	999	9004	1533	1036	20441	4104	2356	4295	1105	871	1110	2098	3889	452	1341	1631	1579	853	988	1413	2834	884	2390	4206	2656	1706	3820	1170	1534	6458	2566	1720	815	8522	5553	5651	1582	932	8484	1000	2382	1810	2683	8384	1390	826	764	2680	1357	1179	643	1870	1101	1892	988	1376	227	4213	7371	1004	855	1223	9824	6407	3515	4045	6940	2003	1486	1386	1112	1060	1262	1258	291	3712	1056	1230	1310	2974	13176	3707	1287	1802	8848	1121	1560	5455	1308	913	1380	1640	2837	1363	4155
2020-11-07	449	1114	2381	980	2691	1846	2050	697	2895	5181	8429	1741	2235	1851	2625	2398	2638	3052	28170	2088	7852	4356	1744	12450	1057	4947	1110	23180	1104	1265	4681	1037	2992	9270	939	3681	1731	1194	2692	3671	7936	5958	1376	2755	1766	1496	2039	966	2783	4617	1772	1087	1861	7271	6942	2039	891	950	2923	1834	951	890	2833	751	14300	6446	1027	1117	4528	1555	2410	1489	918	5763	921	9930	2509	1290	6263	5745	482	1015	1148	1461	1743	1260	6810	2318	1712	906	1267	709	1599	4312	1666	932	2197	2178	922	922	1173	565	2006	6089	2817	1394	624	1299	1232	2911	1605	3924	1403	2820	1356	3265	857	2983	3730	769	2786	443	1085	3884	1737	1488	1962	4381	1750	1214	4036	1699	2958	1306	757	2561	1934	1372	1565	6495	2395	14200	6977	4313	3632	27010	12850	770	3217	1686	1649	20950	4075	1536	379	742	23650	2152	2730	741	586	2498	524	698	1310	4212	2568	1049	1387	2146	10050	2987	4888	537	2315	3426	1118	1314	3025	446	2621	4984	1144	1431	4041	6334	1177	13000	2228	1675	11800	2467	3787	3189	2679	2570	5827	1953	4910	3198	1323	1631	1687	2475	818	10270	712	2607	462	8949	1450	1014	2798	1284	397	525	10730	8299	1826	1030	9121	1564	1058	20760	4179	2421	4365	1123	887	1116	2178	4016	462	1365	1637	1602	853	1007	1436	2883	911	2444	4281	2701	1736	3871	1204	1554	6552	2664	1772	834	8680	5664	5742	1610	983	8587	1010	2419	1845	2745	8561	1442	840	775	2774	1370	1187	661	1923	1107	1930	1021	1422	235	4333	7506	1017	873	1233	10330	6530	3594	4127	7064	2019	1510	1410	1127	1071	1282	1279	301	3768	1086	1247	1330	3027	13490	3754	1313	1828	8951	1144	1568	5585	1325	925	1401	1711	2892	1411	4206
2020-11-08	456	1137	2463	998	2729	1872	2086	712	2932	5208	8607	1760	2269	1881	2723	2436	2660	3115	28730	2134	8007	4432	1758	12620	1079	4965	1134	23650	1113	1281	4767	1063	3039	9320	956	3710	1753	1207	2720	3717	8094	6133	1401	2774	1799	1512	2077	980	2821	4723	1789	1110	1879	7326	7047	2071	902	963	2974	1845	963	898	2887	769	14610	6562	1045	1135	4602	1577	2431	1520	943	5986	934	10060	2509	1330	6405	5803	491	1041	1165	1494	1831	1284	6976	2383	1728	918	1267	719	1620	4408	1701	947	2246	2203	936	933	1188	571	2042	6219	2877	1432	644	1323	1251	2943	1621	3973	1433	2868	1382	3316	870	3031	3754	774	2863	450	1106	3960	1752	1508	1978	4474	1781	1230	4103	1716	3011	1313	769	2605	1961	1380	1594	6817	2434	14570	7065	4380	3685	27340	12930	775	3263	1692	1699	21050	4142	1564	385	755	23880	2210	2772	766	604	2532	533	707	1318	4282	2627	1086	1399	2168	10160	2993	4948	556	2362	3528	1129	1366	3114	448	2654	5088	1166	1474	4070	6451	1196	13180	2260	1705	11910	2494	3830	3221	2702	2615	5890	1972	5011	3251	1362	1658	1722	2512	832	10400	725	2657	465	9072	1478	1028	2849	1296	405	533	10940	8390	1887	1044	9242	1595	1080	21090	4252	2484	4401	1140	903	1128	2261	4141	472	1388	1656	1625	862	1022	1458	2933	937	2498	4353	2715	1766	3922	1224	1573	6647	2728	1822	852	8841	5775	5861	1638	1012	8691	1016	2452	1881	2784	8682	1495	854	783	2872	1384	1196	670	1981	1113	1953	1054	1467	243	4375	7641	1029	890	1241	10580	6656	3623	4161	7187	2042	1533	1433	1141	1082	1302	1299	310	3823	1116	1259	1349	3081	13660	3803	1337	1855	9054	1166	1579	5679	1343	937	1426	1753	2948	1459	4244
2020-11-09	462	1160	2545	1016	2831	1896	2122	728	3016	5316	8784	1779	2302	1918	2825	2493	2697	3179	29300	2182	8159	4506	1827	12890	1102	5077	1159	24130	1138	1299	4857	1088	3084	9630	974	3740	1810	1246	2804	3764	8254	6314	1427	2834	1864	1528	2115	995	2857	4827	1823	1133	1909	7500	7153	2101	912	976	3025	1854	976	914	2941	786	15070	6679	1063	1154	4677	1599	2454	1552	967	6215	948	10400	2542	1371	6643	5960	500	1067	1196	1527	1920	1322	7278	2450	1754	930	1298	732	1640	4505	1736	968	2295	2228	951	943	1203	590	2078	6351	2935	1469	663	1346	1270	3018	1656	4021	1463	2914	1408	3367	884	3117	3820	790	2943	456	1147	4118	1788	1527	2034	4566	1833	1246	4171	1733	3065	1332	780	2649	1987	1403	1622	7153	2472	15050	7153	4446	3737	27960	13170	780	3309	1729	1751	21330	4208	1607	390	768	24350	2268	2899	791	621	2566	541	715	1336	4352	2687	1124	1437	2224	10330	3056	5086	575	2408	3827	1152	1419	3206	454	2713	5194	1207	1543	4199	6571	1215	13360	2295	1736	12170	2520	3905	3277	2750	2661	5998	2019	5112	3305	1400	1685	1756	2550	844	10680	737	2707	476	9304	1506	1050	2899	1313	414	541	11160	8639	1977	1086	9357	1625	1101	21410	4329	2546	4491	1159	918	1156	2345	4268	482	1412	1705	1648	885	1066	1482	2983	964	2552	4427	2772	1797	3972	1259	1593	6740	2869	1874	871	9003	5886	6052	1666	1052	8795	1035	2506	1917	2844	8895	1549	867	792	3004	1397	1204	686	2082	1118	2008	1088	1513	250	4531	7774	1041	908	1267	11020	6782	3708	4245	7309	2092	1557	1456	1155	1093	1322	1319	319	3877	1147	1290	1369	3133	14060	3853	1361	1906	9155	1188	1610	5838	1382	949	1474	1827	3003	1510	4306
2020-11-10	467	1183	2627	1034	2901	1921	2157	744	3089	5404	8961	1798	2336	1953	2930	2568	2724	3243	29870	2231	8311	4581	1878	13130	1124	5209	1183	24600	1155	1315	4945	1113	3129	9970	1000	3769	1849	1276	2854	3809	8415	6498	1452	2882	1920	1545	2152	1009	2893	4931	1855	1156	1939	7622	7259	2132	923	989	3076	1864	988	929	2995	805	15420	6796	1081	1173	4752	1620	2476	1583	990	6449	962	10690	2583	1411	6870	6063	508	1092	1213	1561	2011	1356	7524	2517	1780	941	1312	751	1661	4604	1771	985	2345	2253	966	954	1218	604	2113	6484	2995	1505	684	1370	1290	3071	1683	4069	1493	2962	1434	3419	897	3204	3870	809	3023	462	1180	4238	1817	1546	2094	4660	1869	1261	4239	1749	3118	1347	791	2693	2014	1417	1650	7501	2510	15520	7241	4512	3790	28510	13350	785	3354	1743	1803	21570	4272	1642	396	781	24710	2325	2994	817	638	2601	549	723	1350	4421	2747	1164	1467	2285	10490	3132	5184	594	2455	4007	1171	1474	3298	461	2769	5300	1241	1590	4280	6689	1234	13540	2333	1767	12370	2545	3970	3320	2800	2707	6094	2055	5214	3357	1438	1712	1791	2587	857	10940	750	2758	484	9514	1533	1077	2950	1328	423	549	11370	8839	2038	1115	9474	1655	1123	21730	4404	2606	4582	1177	934	1175	2433	4394	492	1435	1743	1670	898	1094	1505	3034	991	2606	4499	2811	1828	4023	1277	1612	6835	2994	1926	889	9168	5997	6230	1693	1101	8900	1052	2558	1954	2896	9084	1605	881	799	3122	1410	1212	702	2169	1123	2051	1123	1559	258	4618	7908	1053	926	1288	11410	6911	3766	4326	7431	2138	1580	1479	1169	1105	1342	1339	328	3932	1179	1311	1388	3187	14390	3903	1383	1937	9258	1209	1644	5996	1419	961	1505	1896	3059	1563	4362
2020-11-11	472	1206	2710	1052	2958	1945	2192	760	3170	5461	9141	1818	2369	1995	3038	2643	2747	3308	30450	2280	8465	4657	1903	13350	1147	5301	1208	25090	1179	1332	5036	1139	3173	10270	1021	3798	1887	1300	2895	3855	8579	6689	1478	2928	1976	1561	2190	1024	2930	5037	1881	1179	1968	7733	7367	2164	933	1002	3128	1873	1000	938	3051	823	15770	6916	1100	1192	4828	1641	2499	1615	1013	6693	976	10960	2614	1452	7075	6171	516	1118	1241	1595	2105	1394	7795	2586	1805	953	1336	769	1681	4704	1807	992	2394	2278	981	964	1233	614	2149	6619	3055	1542	705	1394	1309	3115	1709	4117	1524	3010	1460	3470	911	3259	3907	821	3104	468	1224	4361	1842	1566	2138	4755	1912	1276	4307	1766	3172	1354	801	2737	2041	1435	1678	7866	2549	15930	7329	4578	3844	29000	13510	790	3401	1772	1857	21740	4336	1677	402	794	25050	2383	3094	843	655	2635	558	732	1366	4491	2808	1205	1492	2337	10630	3165	5278	614	2502	4171	1187	1530	3393	471	2818	5409	1278	1646	4373	6810	1253	13720	2371	1798	12560	2569	4034	3363	2875	2754	6181	2091	5318	3410	1476	1739	1826	2625	870	11140	763	2810	492	9681	1561	1091	3002	1348	431	558	11590	9071	2135	1150	9592	1685	1145	22050	4481	2667	4655	1196	950	1198	2525	4521	501	1458	1777	1692	915	1123	1528	3085	1019	2663	4573	2876	1859	4074	1302	1631	6930	3110	1979	908	9334	6109	6378	1721	1170	9007	1066	2606	1992	2949	9197	1662	895	810	3244	1423	1220	718	2248	1128	2084	1159	1607	266	4736	8042	1065	944	1311	11760	7042	3826	4412	7553	2160	1604	1503	1183	1116	1363	1359	337	3987	1211	1336	1408	3240	14680	3953	1406	1963	9360	1230	1659	6145	1458	974	1546	1966	3116	1617	4414
2020-11-12	476	1230	2796	1070	3014	1969	2228	776	3253	5526	9322	1837	2403	2023	3149	2696	2770	3375	31040	2331	8620	4733	1945	13550	1171	5413	1233	25580	1194	1350	5128	1165	3218	10550	1051	3828	1930	1329	2936	3901	8745	6885	1504	2956	2023	1577	2228	1038	2966	5144	1900	1203	1990	7842	7477	2195	944	1015	3180	1883	1012	948	3107	843	16140	7038	1119	1211	4905	1661	2522	1647	1037	6947	990	11100	2647	1495	7295	6284	525	1144	1261	1630	2203	1427	8037	2657	1832	966	1350	780	1702	4807	1844	1014	2445	2304	996	975	1248	632	2186	6758	3115	1580	727	1418	1329	3164	1732	4166	1554	3058	1487	3522	925	3322	3943	831	3189	474	1264	4488	1872	1585	2181	4852	1972	1290	4375	1782	3226	1366	812	2782	2069	1448	1707	8249	2588	16370	7418	4645	3898	29490	13690	795	3448	1789	1912	21920	4400	1711	407	807	25390	2441	3167	871	672	2670	566	740	1381	4561	2871	1247	1515	2386	10790	3209	5373	633	2550	4359	1196	1589	3491	479	2879	5520	1301	1700	4466	6933	1272	13900	2407	1830	12740	2593	4088	3400	2936	2802	6272	2121	5424	3464	1515	1767	1861	2663	883	11360	777	2861	500	9839	1590	1114	3055	1360	440	566	11800	9260	2212	1175	9711	1716	1168	22380	4560	2729	4746	1215	966	1220	2620	4649	511	1482	1813	1715	932	1154	1552	3137	1048	2720	4649	2917	1891	4125	1327	1650	7026	3205	2032	927	9502	6222	6562	1748	1217	9116	1084	2649	2030	3010	9351	1722	910	822	3362	1436	1228	734	2347	1133	2120	1196	1656	274	4814	8178	1078	962	1331	12110	7175	3879	4489	7677	2208	1628	1527	1197	1127	1383	1379	346	4043	1244	1359	1428	3294	14940	4004	1429	1996	9464	1251	1697	6293	1487	986	1581	2028	3173	1673	4471
2020-11-13	484	1253	2883	1088	3052	1993	2264	792	3314	5608	9505	1857	2438	2047	3265	2755	2798	3443	31640	2382	8777	4810	2015	13720	1195	5489	1259	26090	1210	1367	5222	1192	3263	10780	1071	3858	1967	1351	2973	3947	8916	7087	1530	2995	2066	1594	2267	1053	3003	5252	1916	1227	2013	7960	7588	2227	955	1028	3232	1893	1025	963	3165	862	16320	7162	1138	1230	4984	1681	2545	1680	1062	7211	1004	11100	2679	1538	7484	6376	533	1170	1273	1666	2305	1463	8297	2729	1862	978	1368	790	1722	4913	1881	1027	2495	2329	1011	985	1264	638	2222	6899	3176	1618	750	1443	1350	3210	1757	4215	1585	3106	1515	3575	939	3391	3982	846	3276	480	1276	4572	1887	1605	2221	4951	2012	1305	4444	1799	3281	1379	823	2827	2096	1472	1736	8652	2627	16770	7507	4712	3952	29980	13870	800	3495	1832	1969	22080	4465	1746	413	820	25690	2501	3237	899	689	2706	574	749	1398	4632	2934	1291	1530	2418	10930	3274	5456	654	2598	4493	1215	1651	3593	484	2929	5634	1322	1743	4536	7059	1291	14080	2449	1862	12930	2617	4131	3441	2977	2851	6338	2142	5532	3519	1554	1796	1897	2701	896	11470	790	2914	508	10000	1619	1134	3107	1376	449	574	12020	9450	2309	1184	9830	1747	1191	22710	4639	2791	4822	1234	982	1240	2719	4781	521	1506	1845	1738	949	1180	1577	3189	1077	2779	4725	2967	1923	4177	1359	1670	7123	3285	2087	947	9671	6336	6717	1776	1261	9227	1097	2694	2069	3050	9466	1784	924	834	3432	1449	1235	740	2412	1138	2153	1233	1707	282	4880	8315	1090	981	1342	12370	7312	3944	4565	7803	2250	1653	1551	1212	1138	1404	1400	355	4099	1278	1380	1448	3349	15170	4056	1451	2024	9568	1273	1735	6401	1531	998	1613	2057	3231	1731	4518

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-07 to 2020-11-13

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-06	438	1090	2300	963	2567	1819	2012	682	2852	5111	8253	1723	2200	1821	2529	2305	2613	2988	27612	2041	7695	4281	1723	12230	1034	4864	1085	22709	1096	1248	4593	1012	2942	9099	934	3652	1685	1181	2625	3623	7780	5785	1351	2705	1746	1480	2001	951	2745	4511	1737	1061	1808	7127	6838	2008	881	936	2873	1824	940	885	2779	734	13969	6328	1009	1098	4453	1531	2388	1457	892	5543	908	9249	2474	1246	6091	5672	473	989	1130	1427	1651	1236	6594	2250	1702	894	1253	706	1578	4215	1631	910	2147	2152	909	911	1158	552	1970	5959	2758	1352	606	1276	1213	2879	1590	3876	1372	2773	1331	3213	843	2918	3674	759	2707	437	1033	3807	1728	1469	1933	4290	1733	1197	3969	1681	2904	1305	746	2516	1907	1372	1537	6184	2357	13727	6888	4246	3580	26634	12704	766	3171	1686	1598	20698	3993	1497	374	728	23205	2093	2619	716	569	2463	513	690	1310	4140	2506	1012	1365	2126	10003	2922	4857	518	2268	3269	1102	1263	2936	446	2611	4879	1144	1386	4014	6213	1157	12825	2206	1644	11727	2438	3726	3159	2665	2528	5711	1932	4811	3142	1284	1604	1652	2437	805	9894	699	2557	461	8751	1422	1012	2748	1274	388	516	10526	8121	1797	999	9004	1533	1036	20441	4104	2356	4295	1105	871	1110	2098	3889	452	1341	1631	1579	853	988	1413	2834	884	2390	4206	2656	1706	3820	1170	1534	6458	2566	1720	815	8522	5553	5651	1582	932	8484	1000	2382	1810	2683	8384	1390	826	764	2680	1357	1179	643	1870	1101	1892	988	1376	227	4213	7371	1004	855	1223	9824	6407	3515	4045	6940	2003	1486	1386	1112	1060	1262	1258	291	3712	1056	1230	1310	2974	13176	3707	1287	1802	8848	1121	1560	5455	1308	913	1380	1640	2837	1363	4155
2020-11-07	445	1114	2369	979	2610	1838	2051	697	2901	5159	8417	1733	2234	1851	2597	2342	2641	3047	28110	2086	7792	4337	1755	12410	1058	4937	1103	23040	1112	1263	4683	1036	2988	9310	956	3699	1706	1204	2661	3663	7919	5902	1362	2729	1786	1502	2035	965	2784	4598	1755	1076	1842	7247	6942	2050	898	948	2901	1849	957	896	2824	747	14230	6445	1027	1115	4513	1555	2431	1491	914	5713	925	9410	2515	1273	6281	5739	482	1016	1147	1449	1733	1268	6786	2307	1726	899	1272	717	1597	4288	1662	920	2183	2175	926	919	1174	564	1988	6077	2802	1374	616	1305	1234	2924	1616	3914	1404	2812	1353	3255	856	2967	3716	772	2754	442	1060	3889	1747	1486	1949	4366	1772	1210	4030	1701	2950	1316	759	2552	1923	1392	1566	6469	2391	14060	6941	4297	3602	27030	12900	774	3206	1730	1642	20820	4063	1526	380	740	23480	2155	2675	740	580	2498	522	700	1325	4206	2557	1031	1383	2159	10130	2992	4922	535	2301	3413	1121	1309	3021	450	2660	4967	1165	1424	4080	6322	1168	12950	2244	1675	11920	2469	3776	3190	2717	2568	5788	1959	4905	3210	1320	1626	1677	2445	819	10040	712	2594	467	8870	1442	1028	2771	1287	395	525	10680	8269	1857	1020	9079	1564	1056	20680	4201	2406	4369	1123	883	1127	2156	4005	462	1366	1655	1602	865	1017	1434	2864	909	2443	4272	2709	1732	3846	1203	1553	6521	2652	1760	830	8664	5647	5794	1607	962	8622	1010	2418	1864	2735	8500	1430	838	775	2751	1369	1192	654	1928	1117	1920	1015	1417	231	4283	7484	1016	870	1239	10020	6538	3554	4097	7053	2032	1506	1406	1123	1073	1282	1274	299	3743	1086	1251	1320	3015	13360	3756	1308	1832	8901	1135	1581	5555	1333	923	1409	1680	2873	1405	4196
2020-11-08	452	1138	2451	997	2640	1853	2090	710	2937	5186	8593	1749	2267	1877	2678	2393	2670	3091	28620	2131	7928	4400	1791	12600	1077	4998	1114	23410	1123	1280	4748	1059	3021	9480	972	3749	1717	1227	2697	3705	8061	6027	1381	2749	1832	1524	2068	975	2825	4690	1772	1089	1868	7344	7058	2104	918	961	2937	1875	978	905	2869	761	14420	6550	1042	1132	4575	1574	2468	1517	932	5905	943	9520	2560	1298	6474	5788	489	1040	1163	1471	1811	1294	6963	2368	1747	906	1284	730	1615	4364	1695	932	2220	2195	950	926	1188	575	2018	6199	2849	1402	632	1330	1258	2970	1640	3957	1439	2855	1375	3301	867	3019	3743	786	2797	448	1080	3956	1765	1506	1971	4437	1806	1221	4096	1719	3004	1330	771	2587	1942	1407	1593	6755	2426	14380	6989	4350	3639	27440	13060	781	3233	1776	1682	20940	4134	1555	384	754	23750	2222	2718	758	594	2538	531	708	1340	4260	2606	1054	1403	2182	10250	3066	4991	551	2345	3566	1141	1350	3104	452	2720	5057	1194	1457	4142	6413	1180	13060	2284	1704	12140	2493	3821	3220	2768	2618	5870	1991	5003	3268	1359	1645	1703	2466	834	10170	724	2641	471	8970	1465	1043	2807	1302	401	534	10880	8395	1908	1042	9176	1596	1075	20970	4296	2455	4425	1140	898	1141	2219	4134	473	1386	1673	1625	874	1034	1454	2908	929	2504	4327	2753	1754	3876	1230	1573	6588	2733	1797	846	8841	5751	5915	1629	987	8753	1018	2453	1923	2788	8638	1464	848	787	2824	1380	1207	665	1975	1128	1948	1040	1456	237	4324	7601	1026	880	1250	10190	6687	3589	4130	7181	2070	1528	1425	1133	1087	1308	1292	305	3790	1115	1269	1331	3063	13530	3800	1321	1863	8969	1148	1591	5650	1349	936	1434	1720	2924	1449	4232
2020-11-09	458	1162	2552	1020	2718	1868	2133	722	3015	5286	8771	1766	2301	1908	2781	2461	2700	3174	29200	2182	8110	4471	1879	12850	1099	5135	1140	24010	1142	1301	4833	1082	3074	9830	989	3805	1763	1258	2762	3750	8246	6174	1407	2806	1896	1546	2115	994	2866	4804	1800	1113	1901	7484	7195	2159	943	973	2996	1901	1001	917	2930	781	14690	6668	1063	1154	4646	1601	2508	1551	951	6115	967	9800	2621	1325	6713	5944	495	1069	1192	1498	1902	1325	7188	2455	1770	918	1321	744	1634	4450	1733	950	2278	2215	975	936	1201	591	2060	6341	2908	1433	655	1358	1285	3022	1668	4004	1476	2902	1406	3352	879	3109	3813	803	2845	454	1117	4093	1796	1526	2029	4550	1856	1242	4166	1737	3062	1348	784	2631	1971	1425	1627	7073	2461	14860	7059	4432	3688	27940	13320	793	3288	1838	1739	21150	4212	1606	390	769	24190	2290	2824	780	608	2584	540	716	1361	4327	2659	1084	1433	2234	10400	3167	5113	567	2400	3770	1168	1405	3189	458	2799	5177	1230	1519	4216	6515	1198	13240	2337	1733	12450	2525	3896	3276	2832	2699	5969	2026	5100	3334	1398	1673	1736	2511	848	10420	737	2688	483	9220	1492	1063	2863	1321	408	543	11120	8657	1975	1070	9296	1629	1095	21300	4392	2503	4523	1159	913	1166	2316	4272	484	1409	1723	1649	896	1075	1480	2957	955	2603	4392	2830	1787	3935	1263	1593	6708	2824	1894	863	9021	5865	6093	1668	1017	8885	1037	2502	1991	2852	8842	1520	863	800	2917	1390	1223	680	2034	1143	1997	1068	1510	244	4473	7743	1036	895	1270	10560	6849	3688	4211	7311	2137	1555	1446	1149	1108	1333	1317	314	3855	1145	1298	1348	3123	13920	3883	1350	1901	9116	1176	1621	5791	1394	949	1468	1768	2984	1493	4284
2020-11-10	465	1180	2644	1044	2772	1882	2175	735	3083	5366	8951	1782	2334	1939	2887	2549	2730	3241	29760	2231	8282	4542	1958	13080	1119	5287	1161	24540	1159	1319	4920	1106	3141	10200	1009	3860	1791	1286	2811	3791	8416	6317	1434	2850	1955	1568	2156	1009	2907	4905	1829	1136	1936	7606	7327	2216	965	986	3052	1927	1025	929	2985	802	14950	6784	1077	1176	4715	1622	2549	1582	969	6322	986	10060	2683	1352	6957	6054	502	1096	1209	1525	1993	1354	7398	2530	1793	931	1350	761	1653	4533	1771	965	2329	2234	1001	951	1215	605	2093	6481	2962	1463	679	1385	1309	3071	1696	4049	1512	2949	1434	3401	890	3198	3867	820	2894	460	1151	4203	1826	1546	2088	4650	1893	1257	4236	1755	3119	1366	796	2676	1997	1441	1661	7379	2496	15300	7121	4502	3729	28430	13550	804	3331	1890	1787	21320	4287	1644	396	784	24560	2360	2911	802	621	2627	547	725	1381	4402	2711	1114	1461	2294	10550	3265	5213	584	2448	3955	1193	1453	3275	465	2878	5283	1264	1558	4284	6621	1215	13400	2382	1763	12720	2556	3959	3324	2899	2768	6065	2061	5199	3404	1438	1696	1769	2549	863	10650	749	2736	489	9440	1515	1083	2909	1339	415	553	11350	8883	2039	1096	9392	1662	1116	21630	4490	2551	4623	1177	929	1186	2402	4413	495	1433	1766	1673	909	1103	1505	3004	980	2710	4461	2910	1823	3981	1293	1614	6807	2917	1962	878	9204	5975	6264	1699	1049	9020	1054	2551	2056	2914	9028	1573	878	812	3005	1400	1238	694	2089	1156	2040	1099	1564	253	4561	7877	1047	908	1290	10850	7013	3758	4280	7442	2196	1578	1465	1162	1126	1359	1339	322	3907	1176	1321	1366	3182	14250	3956	1378	1934	9210	1197	1649	5934	1436	963	1495	1815	3041	1539	4332
2020-11-11	472	1199	2740	1066	2834	1897	2217	748	3162	5431	9134	1800	2368	1972	2985	2645	2759	3309	30340	2280	8460	4618	2014	13310	1143	5425	1187	24990	1177	1339	5004	1131	3199	10600	1028	3914	1822	1314	2857	3833	8578	6477	1463	2893	2014	1591	2198	1023	2948	5024	1852	1156	1974	7727	7461	2276	988	999	3104	1952	1050	939	3046	822	15200	6901	1099	1197	4787	1646	2589	1615	988	6535	1012	10370	2749	1379	7192	6184	508	1126	1234	1552	2092	1385	7614	2610	1817	947	1384	778	1671	4616	1808	975	2386	2254	1028	963	1229	619	2134	6623	3024	1495	697	1414	1336	3119	1721	4097	1548	2996	1464	3452	903	3261	3917	837	2942	465	1191	4295	1855	1566	2138	4755	1938	1276	4306	1773	3176	1380	809	2723	2024	1459	1695	7695	2532	15690	7187	4574	3786	28840	13780	816	3378	1950	1837	21470	4363	1684	401	798	24930	2431	2999	823	635	2676	556	733	1401	4471	2763	1145	1487	2346	10680	3349	5312	601	2498	4141	1215	1494	3364	473	2947	5392	1299	1599	4354	6730	1234	13550	2424	1794	12990	2584	4020	3370	2981	2854	6158	2095	5298	3479	1478	1723	1803	2594	877	10860	762	2784	499	9640	1541	1102	2958	1367	420	563	11580	9094	2106	1123	9487	1696	1137	21960	4591	2599	4713	1194	945	1207	2499	4556	506	1462	1800	1698	926	1127	1531	3067	1008	2810	4526	2992	1853	4040	1322	1634	6910	3010	2032	895	9390	6089	6405	1732	1094	9156	1067	2596	2121	2980	9168	1626	895	828	3092	1411	1253	708	2142	1173	2075	1128	1615	259	4680	8020	1057	920	1309	11150	7192	3836	4368	7574	2248	1604	1485	1175	1144	1386	1366	331	3954	1207	1343	1389	3237	14560	4023	1401	1967	9327	1218	1667	6060	1473	976	1527	1861	3104	1587	4373
2020-11-12	479	1226	2836	1087	2905	1912	2259	761	3229	5500	9322	1817	2402	1998	3097	2731	2789	3381	30910	2331	8633	4689	2080	13540	1165	5581	1210	25540	1190	1368	5086	1156	3254	10970	1047	3970	1858	1346	2906	3881	8752	6623	1494	2929	2075	1613	2239	1036	2990	5125	1875	1175	2009	7856	7600	2337	1006	1012	3162	1978	1075	949	3105	843	15410	7023	1115	1219	4858	1669	2626	1650	1007	6758	1034	10690	2808	1405	7440	6302	515	1156	1251	1577	2194	1415	7829	2699	1841	963	1418	791	1690	4706	1845	999	2438	2274	1058	976	1243	635	2172	6766	3081	1525	723	1443	1369	3169	1747	4143	1586	3048	1493	3501	916	3338	3966	852	2991	471	1230	4401	1882	1587	2183	4869	1990	1292	4378	1792	3235	1396	822	2771	2056	1474	1729	8035	2568	16140	7249	4650	3829	29480	14010	827	3422	2004	1897	21660	4436	1730	406	814	25310	2505	3076	845	650	2722	565	742	1418	4537	2817	1179	1513	2397	10810	3456	5411	619	2553	4344	1237	1538	3456	477	3030	5504	1333	1649	4425	6831	1255	13700	2473	1825	13260	2613	4079	3414	3043	2925	6254	2130	5399	3553	1520	1745	1839	2634	893	11090	774	2833	507	9830	1567	1122	3021	1381	426	571	11830	9323	2164	1149	9611	1730	1158	22300	4694	2648	4811	1213	961	1227	2622	4715	518	1491	1832	1722	942	1155	1557	3119	1036	2913	4587	3061	1886	4094	1352	1655	7009	3105	2110	912	9580	6204	6579	1766	1133	9296	1084	2638	2191	3041	9338	1677	908	846	3189	1421	1269	723	2201	1189	2121	1156	1664	265	4773	8162	1066	934	1329	11450	7360	3915	4454	7710	2313	1634	1507	1188	1159	1413	1390	340	4009	1239	1368	1411	3302	14860	4098	1425	2001	9438	1243	1698	6199	1508	990	1555	1909	3162	1636	4425
2020-11-13	486	1250	2943	1112	2978	1927	2304	775	3289	5588	9512	1833	2437	2027	3217	2832	2819	3441	31510	2386	8803	4761	2185	13760	1186	5710	1231	26070	1203	1389	5165	1183	3303	11320	1064	4034	1891	1374	2957	3923	8916	6786	1517	2967	2131	1636	2277	1047	3032	5224	1899	1192	2045	7988	7735	2400	1027	1025	3209	2005	1104	961	3161	866	15560	7145	1132	1242	4929	1689	2666	1680	1026	7014	1058	10870	2881	1434	7687	6400	522	1183	1266	1599	2299	1446	8042	2786	1865	978	1449	805	1710	4800	1885	1013	2490	2294	1087	989	1257	649	2213	6905	3136	1559	749	1473	1404	3218	1774	4187	1626	3096	1523	3551	928	3422	4018	870	3042	477	1260	4492	1904	1608	2231	4960	2026	1307	4451	1810	3296	1414	834	2816	2080	1492	1766	8388	2605	16600	7307	4731	3873	29970	14250	840	3462	2068	1955	21820	4516	1777	413	828	25690	2581	3168	868	664	2773	574	750	1435	4598	2874	1215	1538	2434	10940	3580	5504	637	2610	4544	1262	1587	3551	482	3112	5619	1365	1691	4494	6933	1276	13850	2527	1856	13560	2644	4122	3461	3108	3004	6351	2164	5502	3628	1562	1769	1871	2673	908	11300	787	2883	514	10040	1595	1140	3078	1398	433	579	12090	9562	2226	1171	9736	1765	1179	22670	4800	2698	4914	1232	979	1245	2724	4868	530	1512	1867	1747	958	1178	1584	3157	1061	3029	4655	3150	1913	4144	1389	1676	7096	3200	2185	930	9774	6322	6746	1796	1171	9439	1102	2686	2259	3106	9521	1731	924	860	3271	1431	1285	736	2254	1204	2163	1187	1709	272	4867	8288	1077	947	1341	11720	7537	4017	4520	7847	2372	1659	1527	1203	1176	1440	1416	348	4060	1272	1391	1432	3371	15180	4174	1458	2034	9528	1265	1726	6325	1553	1004	1583	1954	3227	1686	4470

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-06 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-06