COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-09

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	10-29	10-21	10-25	10-27	10-29	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-29	10-04	10-12	--	10-26	10-27	--	--	--	--	10-27	10-11	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	10-28	10-15	--	10-26	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-01	10-27	--	--	--	10-25	--	10-28	--	--	10-16	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	10-12	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	10-14	--	--	10-29	--	10-25	10-25	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	10-27	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	09-27	--	10-23	--	10-29	10-11	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	09-29	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-20	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	09-30	--	10-08	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	--	09-23	10-27	--	--	--	10-27	03-27	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-26	09-27	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-27	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	10-11	10-12	--	10-27	--	10-11	--	10-19	--	--	10-12	10-27	09-30	--	10-23	--	--	10-26	09-30	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-26	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	10-28	--	10-14	--	10-04	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	10-27	--	10-29	--	10-04	--	--	10-15	--	10-21	10-28	10-29	--	09-30	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	10-12	--	10-07
Peak daily increment	7	38	89	22	70	24					190	30	38		86	70					165	96		235					21	48		23		285					56	74	163				50		40			115			37				25	15	60	34								34			44			190		249	57				10									15	31						53	82		13		13	41		70					56		71		53											24	22		92					59								45		154		79			11				484					427	68				46	10					26	26	59	228									15								467			271		63						102				41	45		194		62		198			65	18	8		230			25	192			405							72		12							64						58			117				183	121									175	46		15		22	17						52		107					272				132					17		27		79			24		316	70	27		141					14			64		91
Days since peak	11	19	15	13	11	11					11	36	28		14	13					13	29		21					12	25		14		15					29	39	13				15		12			24			11				13	41	28	26								22			26			11		15	15				12									201	13						22	43		17		11	29		28					11		41		26											27	20		11					22								27		40		32			21				40					47	13				13	227					19	14	43	41									189								40			13		28						11				29	28		13		29		21			28	13	40		17			14	40			41							15		11							27						28			36				14	26									13	12		26		36	14						12		11					12				14					13		11		36			25		19	12	11		40					14			28		33
Last total	458	1162	2525	1014	2708	1891	2129	773	3034	5427	8696	1784	2328	1921	2712	2485	2718	3228	29346	2211	8147	4454	1908	12810	1167	5207	1147	23915	1150	1336	4865	1078	3165	9887	1013	3833	1800	1292	2751	3801	8238	6222	1533	2869	1878	1634	2095	1004	2929	4823	1818	1122	1931	7550	7374	2140	950	983	3023	1921	1005	945	2954	793	14910	6746	1068	1180	4661	1620	2526	1581	974	6034	962	9749	2634	1321	6844	6024	500	1098	1209	1525	1923	1325	7316	2460	1779	946	1325	767	1664	4430	1748	987	2297	2239	986	964	1219	595	2065	6356	2908	1433	668	1413	1310	3043	1679	4040	1452	2921	1453	3389	890	3134	3860	811	2967	471	1128	4119	1849	1518	2074	4549	1904	1275	4199	1781	3038	1372	780	2718	2006	1459	1614	6988	2476	14736	7122	4472	3672	28123	13453	805	3333	1883	1766	21361	4211	1640	399	768	24184	2223	2936	816	615	2583	537	730	1396	4460	2676	1068	1450	2246	10564	3156	5146	567	2402	3660	1181	1408	3238	473	2838	5251	1248	1572	4278	6622	1243	13218	2401	1763	12424	2608	3885	3346	2889	2768	6053	2027	5115	3448	1388	1716	1742	2568	874	10457	738	2668	508	9185	1523	1097	2833	1318	409	561	11076	8769	2085	1054	9341	1630	1121	21262	4452	2533	4563	1161	926	1187	2261	4251	483	1431	1770	1668	985	1065	1509	2971	961	2599	4480	2859	1819	3995	1282	1645	6671	2784	1872	858	8985	5957	6224	1675	1013	8973	1059	2513	2049	2883	8803	1510	899	801	2968	1390	1240	684	2145	1183	2048	1111	1483	250	4573	7767	1065	919	1308	10552	6915	3790	4290	7274	2163	1565	1461	1173	1095	1366	1342	319	3861	1176	1304	1361	3134	13938	3911	1367	1924	9137	1196	1661	5836	1429	946	1476	1797	2969	1474	4297
Last daily increment	7	20	93	9	52	33	45	20	84	132	176	19	71	41	75	25	45	93	705	61	169	70	66	213	60	57	22	457	20	37	130	32	75	142	33	67	45	51	46	76	183	176	85	86	64	74	36	24	68	120	42	16	39	196	184	40	11	21	56	45	31	20	60	21	373	170	38	17	79	39	61	47	32	189	25	220	32	26	305	143	10	47	15	33	116	42	270	92	34	24	18	26	37	86	52	33	62	29	12	29	26	14	41	163	66	10	3	57	29	86	31	73	28	56	49	66	13	88	78	19	97	14	16	148	55	19	51	101	71	29	79	39	49	25	10	85	44	40	34	383	43	391	77	93	31	626	303	10	77	68	74	241	81	62	8	18	370	37	121	39	7	48	4	14	31	113	77	21	20	49	226	95	116	12	58	170	38	73	136	16	56	169	41	82	91	168	38	139	89	42	253	55	50	71	39	46	90	37	115	117	43	47	29	44	21	196	19	42	23	175	46	32	38	19	4	19	199	248	103	16	131	40	29	310	139	71	106	18	21	26	62	68	7	28	54	34	62	20	34	50	20	88	119	38	51	73	54	44	81	92	70	17	180	147	246	32	13	211	22	60	110	33	147	45	33	11	129	14	10	11	123	27	74	59	42	7	143	148	26	23	19	313	191	127	94	119	58	29	27	23	19	45	18	9	56	49	33	20	65	297	46	18	46	100	33	42	145	40	10	34	56	52	50	61
Last week	39	156	453	86	308	129	247	145	397	542	873	93	238	201	385	356	183	482	3283	310	831	343	327	1123	219	675	124	2511	122	152	566	131	377	1606	168	349	220	188	234	339	870	849	246	277	266	228	196	100	296	586	150	112	213	784	885	248	121	79	267	178	130	95	345	108	1754	781	120	127	387	182	284	244	147	954	124	1011	306	156	1354	664	54	197	154	175	519	205	1362	411	162	77	143	104	148	435	207	127	274	167	133	77	116	71	197	797	308	139	97	231	176	295	180	275	180	251	204	304	90	404	350	89	397	49	189	603	200	91	262	511	318	135	416	163	268	119	83	333	155	169	154	1623	216	2075	414	408	203	2942	1381	66	279	346	312	1174	423	251	41	79	1878	299	508	166	76	247	47	71	160	539	318	112	140	266	1037	462	567	99	253	775	127	280	556	56	435	653	183	326	494	776	139	828	323	210	1328	265	312	339	443	398	556	183	581	569	204	191	182	232	114	1037	74	213	80	864	183	149	170	101	43	75	1041	1229	550	115	667	187	140	1651	627	323	537	117	95	150	355	727	62	169	248	157	188	153	171	233	165	416	487	363	203	302	203	170	429	445	312	92	807	687	1038	176	194	945	104	261	410	364	761	238	124	82	539	78	99	74	474	141	254	198	254	43	634	761	98	121	149	1493	900	467	453	653	307	143	137	105	83	151	146	57	273	208	143	99	285	1417	365	140	203	539	132	214	742	226	57	197	271	263	224	298
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95									55																										40											73																																																												44																					75	80																																						75																																																																														27
Low between peaks																																																																																																																													1																																																																																																																																										2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-10 to 2020-11-16

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-09	458	1162	2525	1014	2708	1891	2129	773	3034	5427	8696	1784	2328	1921	2712	2485	2718	3228	29346	2211	8147	4454	1908	12810	1167	5207	1147	23915	1150	1336	4865	1078	3165	9887	1013	3833	1800	1292	2751	3801	8238	6222	1533	2869	1878	1634	2095	1004	2929	4823	1818	1122	1931	7550	7374	2140	950	983	3023	1921	1005	945	2954	793	14910	6746	1068	1180	4661	1620	2526	1581	974	6034	962	9749	2634	1321	6844	6024	500	1098	1209	1525	1923	1325	7316	2460	1779	946	1325	767	1664	4430	1748	987	2297	2239	986	964	1219	595	2065	6356	2908	1433	668	1413	1310	3043	1679	4040	1452	2921	1453	3389	890	3134	3860	811	2967	471	1128	4119	1849	1518	2074	4549	1904	1275	4199	1781	3038	1372	780	2718	2006	1459	1614	6988	2476	14736	7122	4472	3672	28123	13453	805	3333	1883	1766	21361	4211	1640	399	768	24184	2223	2936	816	615	2583	537	730	1396	4460	2676	1068	1450	2246	10564	3156	5146	567	2402	3660	1181	1408	3238	473	2838	5251	1248	1572	4278	6622	1243	13218	2401	1763	12424	2608	3885	3346	2889	2768	6053	2027	5115	3448	1388	1716	1742	2568	874	10457	738	2668	508	9185	1523	1097	2833	1318	409	561	11076	8769	2085	1054	9341	1630	1121	21262	4452	2533	4563	1161	926	1187	2261	4251	483	1431	1770	1668	985	1065	1509	2971	961	2599	4480	2859	1819	3995	1282	1645	6671	2784	1872	858	8985	5957	6224	1675	1013	8973	1059	2513	2049	2883	8803	1510	899	801	2968	1390	1240	684	2145	1183	2048	1111	1483	250	4573	7767	1065	919	1308	10552	6915	3790	4290	7274	2163	1565	1461	1173	1095	1366	1342	319	3861	1176	1304	1361	3134	13938	3911	1367	1924	9137	1196	1661	5836	1429	946	1476	1797	2969	1474	4297
2020-11-10	465	1174	2637	1032	2785	1913	2168	791	3107	5548	8970	1791	2365	1951	2779	2534	2755	3330	29870	2260	8365	4521	1965	13130	1206	5259	1166	24330	1156	1349	4965	1100	3227	10130	1044	3924	1836	1336	2838	3850	8419	6371	1568	2904	1933	1670	2132	1036	2988	4928	1859	1162	1964	7697	7525	2160	970	997	3073	1949	1053	946	3022	824	15350	6891	1068	1201	4726	1648	2569	1626	998	6184	981	10140	2708	1346	7122	6194	507	1125	1247	1553	2021	1352	7514	2605	1802	960	1351	808	1715	4612	1787	990	2356	2264	997	976	1240	606	2099	6488	3000	1471	671	1456	1337	3088	1708	4113	1481	2968	1484	3442	904	3242	3921	826	3022	478	1200	4287	1878	1537	2151	4625	1957	1301	4269	1822	3121	1390	798	2741	2087	1459	1666	7366	2513	15080	7219	4544	3707	28600	13770	816	3381	1946	1826	21660	4339	1702	407	781	24700	2310	3065	858	631	2624	545	740	1426	4551	2734	1089	1479	2290	10720	3270	5217	594	2448	3903	1212	1484	3354	480	2916	5353	1300	1626	4351	6747	1258	13530	2447	1799	12710	2658	3974	3406	2929	2832	6121	2059	5209	3529	1431	1747	1774	2613	892	10700	750	2713	516	9490	1549	1117	2844	1335	415	571	11430	9040	2230	1074	9416	1666	1147	21800	4575	2596	4663	1179	944	1199	2331	4357	493	1454	1818	1695	985	1107	1540	3018	970	2723	4582	2898	1855	4047	1321	1657	6856	2853	1978	877	9260	6072	6439	1704	1082	9130	1073	2552	2154	2893	9074	1550	907	815	3084	1402	1257	697	2239	1217	2052	1148	1521	257	4669	7936	1084	940	1327	10720	7098	3863	4334	7450	2250	1588	1482	1194	1121	1396	1365	329	3912	1216	1326	1379	3214	14410	3996	1392	1961	9305	1217	1668	5979	1459	970	1511	1853	3062	1531	4366
2020-11-11	471	1185	2728	1051	2849	1933	2206	809	3191	5658	9124	1797	2400	1979	2843	2602	2791	3428	30380	2310	8534	4588	1997	13350	1241	5336	1184	24740	1162	1363	5062	1122	3287	10440	1073	3988	1874	1372	2876	3898	8579	6520	1598	2947	1983	1702	2169	1058	3042	5031	1885	1191	1996	7837	7673	2180	989	1010	3122	1977	1090	957	3097	850	15770	7031	1094	1221	4790	1676	2611	1670	1022	6329	1000	10350	2767	1370	7403	6321	514	1163	1287	1586	2121	1376	7735	2718	1826	973	1378	840	1761	4712	1817	999	2405	2289	1009	988	1261	617	2132	6616	3067	1508	677	1497	1365	3138	1735	4156	1509	3014	1514	3493	918	3312	3973	841	3075	484	1252	4427	1905	1555	2208	4712	2020	1324	4341	1854	3168	1402	817	2788	2126	1491	1716	7738	2550	15420	7279	4615	3739	29120	14050	826	3430	2008	1885	21830	4431	1760	415	794	25050	2368	3165	900	646	2665	554	751	1456	4668	2789	1110	1504	2333	10870	3344	5319	620	2493	4025	1242	1559	3468	486	2997	5449	1335	1685	4423	6891	1271	13680	2499	1835	12970	2706	4040	3469	2971	2895	6190	2089	5300	3607	1473	1784	1805	2654	910	10890	763	2757	531	9640	1574	1137	2855	1351	421	580	11640	9220	2373	1094	9487	1701	1172	22080	4698	2653	4761	1197	961	1223	2397	4465	503	1476	1866	1721	1017	1138	1570	3065	980	2845	4680	2945	1890	4098	1360	1680	6941	2920	2036	896	9400	6184	6621	1732	1146	9280	1088	2590	2257	2928	9205	1592	931	828	3191	1413	1273	710	2329	1248	2068	1185	1557	263	4761	8082	1101	959	1354	10980	7282	3941	4411	7578	2306	1611	1503	1209	1141	1426	1387	338	3963	1255	1347	1398	3261	14670	4058	1416	1997	9396	1237	1695	6098	1489	984	1544	1908	3122	1587	4418
2020-11-12	477	1198	2796	1069	2904	1954	2243	827	3271	5768	9293	1804	2434	2007	2907	2653	2827	3525	30870	2360	8681	4655	2044	13540	1278	5411	1203	25140	1169	1378	5158	1144	3347	10750	1103	4060	1914	1415	2914	3945	8742	6670	1629	2978	2030	1733	2205	1077	3094	5135	1906	1216	2028	7971	7821	2199	1008	1023	3170	2006	1131	967	3169	870	16180	7173	1111	1242	4854	1703	2652	1716	1045	6477	1018	10510	2831	1395	7691	6448	520	1196	1321	1611	2225	1402	7932	2818	1849	986	1404	858	1805	4822	1849	1021	2452	2314	1020	1000	1281	628	2165	6741	3110	1545	683	1538	1392	3191	1763	4200	1537	3060	1544	3544	932	3401	4018	856	3129	491	1309	4585	1931	1573	2264	4809	2099	1347	4423	1883	3220	1418	835	2847	2154	1515	1768	8119	2587	15770	7353	4685	3772	29620	14340	837	3479	2069	1945	22040	4524	1815	423	807	25370	2433	3258	944	661	2707	562	761	1486	4783	2842	1131	1531	2375	11010	3420	5410	646	2538	4159	1272	1635	3582	492	3080	5544	1359	1742	4497	7026	1284	13810	2553	1871	13200	2755	4095	3530	3012	2959	6257	2120	5390	3685	1514	1820	1836	2694	927	11080	776	2802	546	9800	1600	1165	2867	1367	427	590	11840	9410	2508	1114	9560	1737	1198	22360	4821	2708	4861	1214	978	1247	2462	4576	513	1499	1910	1748	1044	1170	1600	3110	991	2968	4779	2993	1926	4149	1398	1704	7000	2986	2104	915	9540	6297	6820	1761	1192	9440	1110	2627	2365	2967	9359	1630	949	842	3300	1425	1289	722	2421	1281	2086	1219	1593	270	4854	8206	1117	979	1380	11240	7468	4015	4479	7707	2385	1634	1525	1224	1155	1456	1409	348	4014	1295	1368	1416	3313	14940	4136	1440	2032	9477	1257	1734	6206	1518	997	1576	1965	3163	1642	4481
2020-11-13	483	1211	2872	1087	2966	1975	2280	844	3339	5887	9431	1810	2468	2035	2970	2707	2862	3620	31360	2410	8820	4721	2110	13730	1314	5468	1221	25550	1175	1392	5254	1166	3405	11040	1133	4127	1952	1455	2951	3991	8877	6821	1657	3028	2075	1762	2241	1099	3143	5237	1922	1241	2059	8128	7969	2216	1028	1036	3218	2034	1171	981	3241	894	16470	7315	1125	1262	4917	1730	2693	1761	1068	6623	1037	10700	2878	1418	7988	6559	527	1226	1351	1636	2333	1426	8142	2911	1872	998	1431	870	1847	4923	1889	1032	2497	2338	1032	1012	1302	639	2198	6863	3152	1582	692	1577	1420	3237	1790	4236	1565	3105	1573	3594	946	3485	4063	872	3184	497	1359	4717	1955	1591	2311	4882	2153	1368	4481	1917	3262	1431	854	2895	2185	1542	1820	8503	2623	16130	7408	4754	3804	30090	14610	847	3528	2130	2006	22230	4623	1872	430	819	25690	2494	3367	990	676	2750	570	771	1515	4887	2894	1152	1550	2417	11150	3495	5507	673	2583	4252	1302	1712	3698	497	3165	5635	1390	1810	4571	7167	1297	13930	2601	1907	13450	2803	4147	3594	3054	3022	6323	2150	5479	3764	1554	1848	1868	2719	944	11270	789	2846	560	9960	1625	1190	2878	1383	432	600	12020	9600	2683	1134	9628	1773	1224	22640	4946	2766	4961	1231	994	1268	2527	4689	523	1521	1955	1774	1073	1200	1631	3155	1002	3091	4877	3038	1962	4199	1437	1727	7069	3051	2162	934	9680	6408	6987	1789	1253	9590	1125	2664	2474	3001	9491	1670	970	855	3411	1436	1306	735	2510	1312	2097	1255	1627	276	4944	8332	1133	999	1405	11500	7657	4093	4544	7820	2440	1657	1546	1243	1166	1486	1431	357	4064	1334	1389	1433	3366	15220	4194	1464	2066	9567	1277	1772	6293	1546	1008	1608	2022	3204	1696	4528
2020-11-14	490	1223	2947	1105	3003	1996	2317	863	3379	5973	9547	1816	2502	2063	3033	2752	2898	3714	31850	2461	8923	4788	2130	13880	1351	5468	1239	25950	1181	1406	5352	1187	3465	11290	1163	4174	1977	1489	2986	4037	8986	6976	1686	3054	2101	1791	2278	1113	3192	5341	1930	1258	2091	8246	8120	2234	1047	1050	3267	2062	1199	986	3284	910	16920	7459	1134	1283	4981	1758	2735	1808	1091	6769	1055	10830	2922	1441	8296	6626	533	1257	1387	1659	2446	1450	8357	3027	1896	1011	1458	881	1889	5010	1915	1046	2531	2363	1044	1023	1322	650	2231	6987	3192	1619	696	1616	1448	3274	1817	4265	1594	3151	1603	3645	960	3562	4097	887	3240	503	1397	4832	1980	1610	2348	4948	2215	1390	4535	1941	3299	1443	874	2938	2185	1566	1874	8899	2659	16430	7473	4825	3836	30470	14870	858	3577	2191	2069	22370	4696	1916	437	832	25930	2538	3462	1037	691	2779	578	782	1546	4982	2945	1173	1564	2459	11290	3547	5570	700	2628	4344	1333	1793	3817	502	3252	5727	1410	1855	4646	7276	1310	14040	2650	1944	13630	2853	4187	3645	3096	3086	6391	2180	5569	3844	1595	1875	1900	2750	960	11380	803	2891	571	10070	1650	1209	2890	1399	438	610	12140	9750	2810	1154	9698	1810	1250	22880	5075	2819	5063	1249	1011	1286	2573	4803	533	1542	1990	1801	1090	1226	1662	3201	1013	3216	4978	3087	1999	4249	1472	1752	7125	3116	2206	953	9790	6520	7111	1817	1298	9750	1142	2701	2588	3037	9603	1702	987	869	3489	1447	1322	748	2601	1344	2097	1288	1662	283	5036	8431	1148	1019	1425	11670	7851	4159	4599	7901	2488	1680	1568	1257	1175	1517	1453	366	4115	1373	1410	1451	3405	15380	4253	1488	2101	9633	1297	1791	6356	1575	1013	1640	2080	3235	1750	4568
2020-11-15	496	1235	3006	1123	3043	2017	2355	881	3399	6090	9683	1822	2536	2091	3097	2792	2934	3808	32350	2514	9025	4856	2177	14040	1389	5468	1257	26360	1188	1420	5452	1209	3525	11520	1195	4228	2010	1519	3017	4084	9105	7135	1715	3080	2139	1819	2316	1124	3241	5446	1945	1279	2123	8361	8275	2252	1066	1063	3316	2091	1233	1010	3340	920	17270	7607	1147	1303	5045	1786	2777	1857	1115	6918	1074	10960	2965	1464	8616	6730	540	1281	1417	1685	2565	1475	8512	3122	1920	1024	1485	898	1931	5084	1945	1057	2571	2388	1056	1035	1343	661	2264	7111	3220	1657	709	1655	1477	3303	1845	4303	1622	3197	1633	3696	974	3638	4135	903	3297	509	1429	4949	2004	1628	2388	5020	2274	1411	4597	1975	3333	1453	894	2976	2191	1585	1929	9308	2696	16710	7530	4896	3868	30840	15130	868	3628	2254	2135	22530	4763	1961	445	844	26140	2572	3561	1087	706	2811	586	792	1577	5097	2997	1194	1594	2501	11430	3597	5638	729	2673	4404	1364	1878	3941	508	3342	5820	1440	1910	4723	7381	1323	14130	2693	1981	13810	2903	4224	3703	3140	3150	6459	2211	5660	3926	1636	1902	1932	2783	977	11510	817	2936	583	10200	1675	1238	2902	1416	444	620	12290	9890	2953	1174	9767	1848	1277	23090	5207	2864	5168	1266	1027	1307	2619	4919	543	1564	2027	1828	1126	1258	1693	3247	1024	3344	5080	3125	2037	4299	1498	1772	7178	3182	2246	973	9910	6634	7260	1845	1344	9900	1156	2739	2707	3070	9704	1735	1006	883	3572	1459	1338	761	2694	1377	2097	1323	1698	289	5127	8537	1163	1040	1451	11870	8050	4230	4666	7985	2542	1704	1590	1272	1183	1548	1475	376	4165	1414	1432	1470	3444	15570	4300	1512	2135	9691	1318	1818	6417	1604	1019	1673	2141	3270	1805	4603
2020-11-16	502	1248	3111	1142	3103	2038	2392	900	3477	6217	9878	1828	2570	2119	3162	2831	2971	3903	32850	2567	9206	4924	2261	14290	1429	5547	1275	26770	1195	1435	5554	1231	3585	11730	1227	4305	2054	1573	3075	4131	9296	7297	1745	3159	2208	1847	2353	1143	3289	5551	1979	1301	2155	8572	8432	2270	1086	1076	3365	2119	1260	1026	3409	945	17610	7758	1180	1324	5110	1815	2819	1906	1139	7067	1093	11210	3011	1487	8950	6866	546	1329	1440	1714	2690	1500	8777	3225	1944	1037	1512	927	1973	5150	1999	1086	2638	2413	1068	1047	1364	673	2298	7236	3293	1696	719	1695	1506	3385	1872	4372	1651	3243	1663	3748	989	3734	4216	919	3356	515	1444	5112	2029	1647	2447	5126	2347	1432	4678	2012	3396	1477	914	3046	2215	1621	1986	9732	2733	17100	7612	4969	3900	31470	15420	879	3679	2318	2202	22760	4860	2028	452	857	26560	2625	3692	1139	721	2861	594	803	1609	5217	3048	1216	1619	2544	11570	3716	5762	759	2719	4636	1396	1967	4068	513	3434	5913	1482	1989	4802	7518	1337	14300	2782	2020	14080	2954	4283	3773	3183	3216	6528	2242	5751	4009	1678	1938	1964	2827	995	11730	831	2981	601	10400	1701	1272	2914	1432	450	630	12520	10110	3072	1194	9837	1886	1305	23400	5343	2940	5275	1284	1043	1330	2688	5035	553	1587	2088	1856	1176	1291	1725	3293	1035	3476	5185	3179	2075	4350	1564	1813	7276	3248	2332	993	10120	6748	7495	1874	1365	10070	1178	2776	2832	3125	9877	1784	1037	897	3713	1470	1354	775	2788	1411	2162	1388	1733	296	5220	8697	1179	1061	1474	12190	8255	4359	4750	8117	2599	1728	1612	1289	1203	1581	1497	386	4217	1456	1453	1488	3508	15900	4362	1537	2169	9818	1338	1862	6546	1634	1031	1706	2203	3332	1861	4661

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-10 to 2020-11-16

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-09	458	1162	2525	1014	2708	1891	2129	773	3034	5427	8696	1784	2328	1921	2712	2485	2718	3228	29346	2211	8147	4454	1908	12810	1167	5207	1147	23915	1150	1336	4865	1078	3165	9887	1013	3833	1800	1292	2751	3801	8238	6222	1533	2869	1878	1634	2095	1004	2929	4823	1818	1122	1931	7550	7374	2140	950	983	3023	1921	1005	945	2954	793	14910	6746	1068	1180	4661	1620	2526	1581	974	6034	962	9749	2634	1321	6844	6024	500	1098	1209	1525	1923	1325	7316	2460	1779	946	1325	767	1664	4430	1748	987	2297	2239	986	964	1219	595	2065	6356	2908	1433	668	1413	1310	3043	1679	4040	1452	2921	1453	3389	890	3134	3860	811	2967	471	1128	4119	1849	1518	2074	4549	1904	1275	4199	1781	3038	1372	780	2718	2006	1459	1614	6988	2476	14736	7122	4472	3672	28123	13453	805	3333	1883	1766	21361	4211	1640	399	768	24184	2223	2936	816	615	2583	537	730	1396	4460	2676	1068	1450	2246	10564	3156	5146	567	2402	3660	1181	1408	3238	473	2838	5251	1248	1572	4278	6622	1243	13218	2401	1763	12424	2608	3885	3346	2889	2768	6053	2027	5115	3448	1388	1716	1742	2568	874	10457	738	2668	508	9185	1523	1097	2833	1318	409	561	11076	8769	2085	1054	9341	1630	1121	21262	4452	2533	4563	1161	926	1187	2261	4251	483	1431	1770	1668	985	1065	1509	2971	961	2599	4480	2859	1819	3995	1282	1645	6671	2784	1872	858	8985	5957	6224	1675	1013	8973	1059	2513	2049	2883	8803	1510	899	801	2968	1390	1240	684	2145	1183	2048	1111	1483	250	4573	7767	1065	919	1308	10552	6915	3790	4290	7274	2163	1565	1461	1173	1095	1366	1342	319	3861	1176	1304	1361	3134	13938	3911	1367	1924	9137	1196	1661	5836	1429	946	1476	1797	2969	1474	4297
2020-11-10	463	1185	2605	1033	2749	1913	2171	796	3105	5525	8856	1800	2369	1953	2782	2545	2751	3306	29950	2268	8304	4510	1979	13010	1206	5324	1168	24370	1171	1358	4967	1101	3239	10190	1041	3895	1834	1329	2794	3854	8402	6371	1585	2930	1933	1679	2131	1022	2985	4916	1852	1145	1964	7691	7526	2187	969	998	3072	1950	1031	962	3010	814	15230	6883	1085	1203	4730	1648	2572	1623	999	6210	982	9970	2685	1347	7108	6151	508	1132	1231	1556	2021	1358	7552	2539	1804	961	1345	793	1693	4510	1787	1005	2342	2264	1006	982	1238	608	2092	6495	2961	1455	684	1455	1335	3100	1709	4090	1482	2962	1489	3438	905	3226	3920	829	3040	480	1164	4247	1887	1535	2139	4643	1956	1296	4277	1815	3085	1392	790	2775	2042	1483	1643	7297	2511	15120	7190	4538	3699	28660	13720	816	3382	1943	1819	21570	4288	1685	408	783	24520	2276	3042	849	629	2623	544	741	1423	4558	2734	1089	1478	2306	10750	3244	5247	585	2448	3822	1206	1460	3348	484	2918	5366	1285	1624	4361	6756	1269	13370	2456	1799	12660	2653	3941	3409	2950	2839	6150	2064	5211	3542	1435	1748	1769	2607	895	10660	751	2707	520	9360	1552	1125	2856	1334	415	575	11260	9010	2185	1075	9444	1668	1148	21560	4572	2592	4663	1178	944	1211	2338	4362	492	1458	1823	1694	1022	1093	1540	3012	984	2699	4575	2922	1862	4043	1317	1675	6754	2861	1934	874	9140	6072	6417	1707	1047	9140	1078	2562	2132	2938	8963	1562	918	812	3070	1400	1256	697	2231	1204	2096	1152	1533	260	4680	7899	1084	938	1331	10800	7083	3874	4362	7390	2223	1588	1484	1191	1112	1397	1364	328	3904	1217	1327	1376	3201	14220	3972	1393	1961	9221	1219	1693	5976	1467	957	1506	1849	3018	1517	4349
2020-11-11	470	1207	2694	1053	2811	1932	2212	814	3186	5598	9016	1816	2402	1986	2858	2626	2781	3383	30500	2318	8465	4569	2024	13230	1234	5461	1188	24800	1193	1375	5060	1123	3301	10520	1062	3950	1868	1359	2833	3905	8559	6524	1609	2977	1986	1707	2169	1038	3032	5015	1875	1169	1994	7820	7672	2233	990	1010	3122	1977	1056	974	3072	836	15510	7012	1104	1222	4798	1671	2616	1662	1022	6385	1002	10180	2740	1376	7386	6279	516	1163	1262	1586	2120	1391	7786	2619	1827	974	1375	815	1712	4584	1822	1017	2390	2288	1030	993	1254	618	2125	6638	3013	1485	705	1488	1360	3150	1736	4131	1515	3007	1520	3487	919	3286	3971	845	3098	485	1201	4350	1917	1553	2188	4731	2005	1319	4350	1840	3134	1407	804	2825	2069	1504	1669	7628	2543	15490	7248	4600	3729	29180	13950	826	3430	2004	1868	21730	4359	1730	413	798	24860	2336	3134	876	643	2665	553	750	1449	4651	2787	1113	1502	2358	10900	3330	5350	604	2494	3987	1229	1514	3445	494	3006	5463	1318	1677	4440	6877	1289	13520	2508	1832	12920	2688	4006	3459	3028	2910	6248	2099	5307	3630	1473	1776	1798	2647	913	10850	764	2746	531	9510	1578	1145	2888	1352	421	586	11470	9220	2292	1099	9533	1700	1172	21840	4694	2644	4755	1197	959	1236	2411	4495	503	1480	1867	1719	1049	1123	1568	3059	1015	2779	4653	2991	1890	4094	1351	1697	6841	2939	1993	889	9290	6183	6581	1739	1091	9280	1093	2603	2202	3004	9097	1606	937	827	3167	1410	1272	711	2304	1224	2130	1185	1580	267	4786	8035	1098	954	1354	11060	7245	3947	4435	7512	2265	1613	1505	1203	1129	1424	1391	337	3949	1254	1350	1393	3256	14470	4038	1417	1996	9318	1240	1717	6115	1502	969	1540	1898	3070	1562	4394
2020-11-12	476	1230	2775	1071	2864	1951	2254	833	3263	5667	9182	1830	2434	2015	2937	2687	2812	3464	31050	2371	8607	4629	2083	13430	1261	5601	1208	25240	1210	1393	5159	1145	3360	10840	1086	4005	1903	1392	2873	3962	8718	6666	1634	3011	2039	1734	2206	1051	3079	5114	1894	1189	2022	7949	7820	2281	1011	1023	3171	2004	1081	985	3132	854	15790	7143	1120	1245	4867	1698	2659	1707	1045	6560	1023	10340	2797	1403	7664	6398	524	1193	1286	1610	2223	1422	8006	2700	1851	983	1404	830	1732	4659	1857	1039	2435	2311	1055	1003	1270	633	2152	6782	3060	1516	726	1523	1392	3202	1763	4173	1548	3049	1550	3535	933	3357	4015	861	3157	491	1243	4464	1946	1570	2235	4825	2069	1335	4429	1863	3185	1424	817	2878	2092	1523	1696	7969	2575	15890	7305	4669	3756	29680	14190	837	3475	2065	1921	21910	4428	1776	419	812	25180	2401	3215	904	657	2707	562	759	1475	4725	2842	1137	1527	2402	11040	3420	5446	624	2543	4162	1249	1568	3543	502	3093	5563	1351	1728	4519	6994	1309	13660	2558	1866	13170	2724	4059	3506	3105	2983	6345	2131	5403	3710	1510	1806	1826	2684	930	11040	777	2786	541	9660	1607	1170	2922	1366	427	596	11670	9440	2387	1120	9623	1734	1195	22130	4818	2695	4853	1215	973	1261	2485	4635	514	1502	1909	1745	1073	1153	1596	3100	1043	2857	4731	3059	1927	4143	1386	1719	6908	3019	2059	905	9450	6293	6760	1771	1128	9420	1113	2643	2276	3074	9254	1649	952	844	3263	1421	1289	725	2381	1242	2169	1218	1627	273	4874	8154	1112	970	1375	11290	7407	4017	4502	7635	2326	1639	1525	1215	1144	1452	1413	347	3993	1291	1373	1410	3314	14730	4106	1442	2032	9404	1259	1753	6254	1535	982	1572	1946	3114	1609	4444
2020-11-13	484	1253	2860	1090	2918	1969	2297	851	3333	5749	9339	1844	2467	2047	3017	2757	2842	3539	31620	2423	8749	4689	2162	13630	1290	5718	1228	25700	1227	1412	5249	1168	3418	11150	1108	4061	1938	1425	2912	4006	8870	6814	1656	3060	2091	1761	2241	1065	3126	5206	1911	1210	2052	8084	7971	2329	1032	1035	3213	2031	1106	999	3194	876	16020	7276	1136	1266	4938	1723	2702	1745	1069	6742	1043	10500	2850	1432	7927	6501	532	1223	1306	1638	2330	1455	8240	2781	1875	995	1432	843	1750	4735	1895	1053	2480	2335	1080	1016	1285	644	2186	6923	3106	1547	748	1555	1420	3253	1789	4212	1582	3092	1578	3584	947	3433	4058	877	3217	496	1277	4559	1967	1588	2277	4911	2113	1351	4499	1888	3233	1440	829	2929	2117	1545	1727	8315	2608	16280	7359	4744	3790	30180	14420	847	3518	2126	1975	22080	4499	1820	425	825	25510	2466	3302	934	671	2750	570	769	1500	4804	2896	1162	1548	2441	11190	3510	5546	644	2595	4331	1272	1623	3644	508	3182	5665	1386	1787	4596	7117	1330	13800	2609	1899	13430	2760	4111	3557	3182	3053	6439	2162	5500	3793	1548	1831	1855	2711	947	11230	790	2825	553	9820	1633	1193	2954	1383	434	606	11870	9650	2514	1141	9712	1768	1219	22420	4946	2746	4947	1234	988	1285	2562	4779	526	1523	1953	1771	1100	1183	1626	3135	1072	2943	4810	3136	1954	4187	1422	1739	6978	3100	2118	922	9600	6402	6928	1801	1172	9560	1127	2686	2352	3137	9399	1697	970	855	3361	1431	1305	737	2450	1260	2200	1253	1669	280	4977	8275	1126	988	1396	11530	7569	4091	4569	7755	2374	1663	1546	1233	1157	1480	1439	354	4036	1329	1395	1427	3374	14980	4172	1467	2067	9495	1280	1788	6379	1585	994	1603	1991	3159	1657	4486
2020-11-14	491	1276	2945	1113	2972	1988	2338	870	3381	5809	9488	1858	2499	2074	3101	2817	2872	3600	32130	2475	8858	4750	2205	13810	1315	5817	1245	26090	1239	1429	5335	1190	3478	11410	1128	4114	1962	1457	2954	4042	9008	6955	1681	3088	2134	1788	2278	1075	3174	5298	1927	1225	2076	8219	8112	2379	1053	1048	3251	2059	1127	1009	3245	893	16320	7409	1151	1293	5007	1743	2743	1786	1092	6922	1064	10700	2901	1460	8215	6578	540	1253	1326	1664	2438	1477	8471	2856	1899	1007	1458	856	1769	4810	1930	1071	2521	2359	1104	1028	1301	654	2207	7059	3151	1579	771	1588	1453	3298	1813	4249	1614	3134	1609	3628	961	3494	4098	892	3272	502	1304	4638	1992	1606	2312	4989	2156	1368	4569	1911	3280	1453	841	2979	2135	1563	1755	8663	2641	16630	7416	4819	3814	30580	14650	858	3556	2189	2025	22220	4567	1862	431	836	25810	2528	3402	964	685	2790	580	778	1525	4887	2951	1186	1568	2475	11320	3607	5617	665	2640	4514	1293	1672	3743	510	3277	5761	1419	1831	4669	7236	1353	13930	2667	1934	13670	2795	4153	3595	3261	3115	6537	2192	5598	3863	1583	1857	1884	2737	965	11360	803	2866	559	9960	1654	1214	2985	1396	439	616	12010	9840	2591	1162	9802	1800	1244	22690	5077	2798	5032	1252	1004	1302	2623	4902	537	1546	1985	1799	1118	1208	1650	3171	1093	3012	4886	3210	1983	4233	1457	1763	7036	3183	2167	938	9740	6510	7082	1829	1210	9710	1143	2719	2428	3199	9537	1737	985	867	3447	1441	1321	750	2519	1279	2226	1287	1700	287	5044	8379	1140	1003	1411	11700	7737	4160	4628	7869	2409	1687	1566	1248	1169	1509	1463	363	4070	1367	1416	1442	3428	15190	4238	1490	2103	9560	1299	1805	6489	1610	1005	1632	2044	3200	1706	4524
2020-11-15	497	1300	3026	1131	3023	2007	2380	889	3417	5881	9661	1873	2533	2104	3181	2870	2902	3659	32640	2528	8971	4812	2260	14000	1339	5904	1263	26500	1251	1447	5413	1214	3542	11620	1147	4170	1986	1486	2994	4077	9149	7102	1706	3112	2183	1816	2311	1088	3219	5391	1941	1243	2101	8338	8258	2431	1075	1061	3284	2087	1148	1023	3303	911	16570	7543	1168	1316	5076	1761	2784	1823	1116	7094	1085	10850	2951	1489	8487	6665	548	1280	1344	1691	2544	1503	8675	2938	1924	1017	1487	869	1788	4885	1966	1085	2562	2383	1128	1037	1317	665	2234	7197	3196	1612	795	1615	1483	3340	1839	4290	1646	3179	1636	3679	975	3557	4136	907	3330	507	1326	4712	2012	1625	2343	5067	2196	1381	4639	1932	3329	1467	852	3027	2156	1581	1783	9049	2674	16970	7473	4883	3838	30950	14840	869	3589	2252	2077	22350	4634	1899	436	849	26100	2585	3478	992	700	2829	589	786	1549	4968	3010	1212	1591	2501	11450	3682	5684	687	2689	4691	1314	1733	3842	512	3365	5857	1455	1879	4743	7354	1370	14060	2723	1969	13890	2829	4195	3631	3343	3176	6635	2222	5698	3948	1617	1880	1914	2765	982	11480	816	2907	566	10090	1682	1237	3016	1413	445	626	12200	10000	2686	1181	9893	1831	1267	22970	5212	2847	5111	1271	1018	1321	2684	5043	549	1568	2016	1825	1138	1233	1673	3211	1117	3081	4961	3260	2009	4276	1492	1779	7106	3269	2213	954	9900	6620	7248	1853	1243	9860	1153	2755	2501	3266	9671	1776	999	880	3534	1451	1338	762	2595	1296	2258	1323	1739	293	5108	8477	1152	1015	1429	11890	7914	4228	4693	7986	2457	1712	1587	1258	1182	1539	1483	371	4108	1408	1435	1454	3483	15380	4304	1511	2140	9629	1317	1827	6610	1632	1017	1662	2091	3250	1757	4557
2020-11-16	505	1324	3138	1152	3100	2026	2425	909	3505	5981	9864	1888	2566	2137	3264	2939	2939	3753	33260	2585	9182	4874	2363	14270	1369	6058	1285	27000	1269	1464	5514	1237	3609	11930	1168	4229	2031	1524	3056	4130	9343	7272	1726	3176	2249	1843	2358	1109	3270	5512	1970	1269	2128	8503	8421	2484	1098	1073	3361	2115	1172	1037	3369	935	16850	7684	1188	1344	5152	1790	2828	1872	1141	7313	1107	11150	3012	1520	8875	6838	556	1315	1371	1720	2670	1540	8951	3045	1949	1031	1522	890	1805	4961	2009	1109	2630	2407	1156	1050	1333	681	2269	7364	3256	1646	823	1654	1515	3407	1867	4341	1682	3235	1671	3737	990	3653	4208	925	3397	513	1355	4858	2046	1643	2404	5179	2258	1403	4724	1958	3392	1487	865	3084	2189	1603	1810	9470	2708	17460	7543	4977	3865	31600	15120	880	3658	2328	2141	22560	4706	1962	443	866	26540	2656	3620	1025	715	2877	598	796	1577	5053	3070	1238	1620	2557	11610	3801	5829	709	2750	4933	1343	1805	3955	516	3470	5979	1493	1958	4832	7477	1391	14240	2800	2004	14200	2867	4271	3690	3425	3263	6740	2261	5799	4037	1659	1910	1944	2803	1000	11750	830	2948	578	10360	1713	1265	3066	1429	452	637	12500	10280	2791	1207	9985	1873	1293	23300	5351	2907	5218	1290	1032	1346	2779	5204	561	1591	2075	1855	1167	1279	1704	3257	1148	3179	5045	3342	2043	4342	1536	1808	7233	3356	2326	971	10130	6741	7451	1894	1275	10010	1173	2799	2583	3349	9873	1830	1020	894	3655	1461	1355	777	2681	1315	2326	1364	1801	301	5249	8648	1167	1030	1449	12240	8098	4343	4769	8122	2525	1742	1608	1274	1202	1569	1512	380	4172	1449	1463	1470	3552	15780	4373	1537	2184	9772	1342	1858	6776	1674	1029	1701	2149	3310	1809	4603

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-09