COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-12

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd) --10-2111-01 --10-25 --11-01 -- --11-0110-1910-04 -- --10-3110-31 -- -- -- --10-1910-1110-3110-19 --10-31 --10-31 --10-15 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 --10-29 --10-05 -- --10-25 -- --10-16 -- -- --11-01 --10-22 -- --10-1310-1410-30 -- -- -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- --11-01 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- --10-1809-27 -- -- -- --10-11 --10-07 -- -- -- -- -- --10-0410-3010-15 -- -- --11-01 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-19 -- -- -- --11-01 --10-18 -- --11-0110-13 --10-2911-0110-13 --09-3010-2810-07 --11-01 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- --11-0109-2310-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-21 --09-2709-27 -- -- --11-0110-25 -- -- --05-04 -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-30 -- --10-25 --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0110-1110-07 --10-25 --10-11 --10-19 -- --10-06 -- -- --10-18 -- -- --10-04 -- --09-29 -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- --10-12 -- --10-04 -- -- --10-2211-01 -- --10-3111-01 -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- --10-04 -- -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- --10-25 -- -- --10-28 -- -- --10-22 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 --11-0110-1310-3010-18 -- -- --10-04 -- -- -- --10-2211-01 --10-12 --10-07
Peak daily increment 37 92 61 44 100 187 32 80 67 163 95 58 233 134 446 54 56 72 143 50 39 115 140 53 60 34 26 31 242 50 30 53 82 41 69 70 33 53 71 21 77 58 61 33 32 351 45 153 74 85 313 480 14 427 63 25 59 221 55 147 15 457 259 63 42 40 45 193 62 197 66 227 194 399 71 63 58 119 179 124 36 175 169 23 48 141 256 131 82 26 24 60 312 140 14 43 64 92
Days since peak 22 11 18 11 11 24 39 12 12 24 32 12 24 12 12 28 32 46 14 38 18 27 11 21 30 29 13 25 25 11 38 25 46 32 36 39 13 28 11 24 11 25 11 30 14 11 30 43 15 36 11 45 11 50 16 22 46 46 11 18 192 43 18 31 11 32 36 18 32 24 37 25 39 44 14 30 31 39 21 11 12 11 25 39 17 18 15 21 39 11 30 13 25 39 21 11 31 36
Last total 494 1254 2798 1121 2910 1964 2257 828 3299 5795 9125 1842 2528 2047 2939 2692 2834 3580 31397 2449 8515 4660 2046 13373 1330 5707 1219 25216 1218 1422 5193 1164 3398 11050 1096 4076 1926 1391 2881 3957 8639 6681 1682 3061 2058 1800 2202 1080 3117 5122 1936 1232 2038 7963 7854 2291 1049 1036 3166 1999 1080 1007 3226 861 15886 7259 1136 1279 4974 1711 2704 1747 1088 6524 1063 10276 2877 1431 7651 6439 530 1195 1307 1646 2328 1429 8033 2695 1901 992 1416 817 1762 4781 1880 1064 2475 2351 1094 1035 1298 653 2186 6753 3036 1547 778 1561 1406 3299 1768 4152 1543 3122 1619 3595 947 3306 4091 854 3198 507 1283 4555 2027 1597 2189 4903 2085 1353 4444 1884 3186 1418 848 2901 2141 1570 1692 7923 2625 15924 7316 4721 3771 29672 14344 861 3517 2073 1941 21999 4524 1808 422 803 25130 2408 3334 925 680 2736 579 764 1510 4763 2901 1136 1600 2388 11142 3425 5496 643 2520 4011 1289 1562 3616 503 3186 5678 1377 1756 4590 7096 1333 13638 2632 1891 13013 2778 4063 3548 3200 3123 6344 2151 5496 3767 1540 1817 1822 2709 931 10973 814 2801 566 9648 1680 1197 2970 1386 431 625 11607 9539 2324 1165 9692 1749 1221 22019 4811 2817 4916 1248 1001 1283 2442 4769 536 1528 1920 1797 1121 1193 1591 3098 1089 2839 4786 3144 1961 4182 1391 1743 6884 3071 2049 940 9436 6355 6880 1775 1116 9512 1139 2699 2564 3116 9231 1674 959 868 3264 1428 1309 759 2470 1271 2208 1210 1609 277 4950 8132 1130 978 1394 11279 7460 4075 4597 7537 2308 1649 1535 1270 1161 1461 1439 346 3994 1300 1370 1426 3341 14566 4241 1494 2071 9398 1269 1774 6294 1552 995 1573 1948 3098 1618 4467
Last daily increment 13 35 57 22 56 27 41 9 66 99 116 13 62 33 55 46 31 101 550 72 119 75 39 165 33 108 22 421 16 13 100 22 44 341 24 79 31 25 26 43 96 116 64 55 44 51 31 29 52 75 35 20 29 127 121 36 30 16 39 17 16 10 55 17 281 122 23 23 82 32 51 57 31 141 26 144 41 34 242 144 6 23 26 28 97 21 217 64 29 10 23 15 28 122 42 16 43 36 31 10 25 17 32 108 30 26 21 52 13 68 27 33 27 42 54 79 17 51 54 7 78 14 36 141 46 19 21 115 43 28 84 25 55 10 20 45 43 32 21 269 44 340 58 86 22 455 245 16 48 63 48 174 93 62 6 12 278 30 138 52 13 48 5 11 38 89 76 15 27 43 151 87 103 15 22 113 36 41 123 8 88 140 44 60 75 135 22 105 69 31 150 45 49 45 63 92 83 33 125 99 26 24 20 30 22 159 23 32 23 123 33 24 35 13 4 17 159 227 66 34 105 27 27 174 104 83 86 17 27 33 42 130 14 23 37 58 30 41 21 42 27 66 103 59 48 59 35 30 62 84 51 22 134 81 177 25 27 143 19 66 215 62 140 48 11 21 74 12 22 22 106 24 39 30 29 3 102 107 23 23 20 182 156 102 92 88 33 24 21 35 19 30 19 8 38 37 17 11 65 170 80 29 48 87 25 41 119 40 10 19 40 36 46 40
Last week 51 161 486 147 334 143 234 142 423 663 854 115 323 213 400 347 215 559 3649 402 759 362 306 1073 282 749 129 2465 117 170 596 151 435 1788 160 421 241 197 248 309 809 886 324 334 308 318 198 128 359 593 197 157 208 812 906 269 153 97 275 162 135 121 414 116 1867 895 125 167 505 174 304 281 190 943 153 994 375 184 1516 755 55 201 162 214 653 189 1415 433 195 94 143 107 183 547 239 151 316 190 163 117 135 89 209 774 270 173 158 278 192 409 172 259 164 319 281 364 103 380 411 84 457 68 222 727 290 125 249 600 344 149 459 197 272 110 91 357 217 197 145 1697 262 2154 410 450 180 2970 1614 91 328 367 337 1211 514 301 48 72 1794 301 686 205 107 264 63 70 193 604 386 121 218 257 1109 487 612 122 238 730 178 298 669 55 548 777 226 359 556 873 169 773 415 243 1166 326 300 375 491 542 592 216 661 612 249 205 156 260 124 971 114 235 102 877 251 184 216 108 41 107 985 1376 508 160 675 212 178 1493 682 456 605 137 126 167 332 800 75 182 282 208 263 199 161 246 197 418 571 433 252 331 219 202 407 493 325 124 861 748 1206 182 170 1008 135 306 733 389 782 277 129 100 564 67 119 110 592 164 311 220 228 50 680 730 124 123 156 1434 1007 556 539 554 293 150 146 151 101 189 164 54 274 242 131 109 343 1259 499 186 264 504 143 211 801 217 68 186 295 255 246 309
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 73 75 75 75 27
Low between peaks 27 2 16 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-13 to 2020-11-19

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-12 494 1254 2798 1121 2910 1964 2257 828 3299 5795 9125 1842 2528 2047 2939 2692 2834 3580 31397 2449 8515 4660 2046 13373 1330 5707 1219 25216 1218 1422 5193 1164 3398 11050 1096 4076 1926 1391 2881 3957 8639 6681 1682 3061 2058 1800 2202 1080 3117 5122 1936 1232 2038 7963 7854 2291 1049 1036 3166 1999 1080 1007 3226 861 15886 7259 1136 1279 4974 1711 2704 1747 1088 6524 1063 10276 2877 1431 7651 6439 530 1195 1307 1646 2328 1429 8033 2695 1901 992 1416 817 1762 4781 1880 1064 2475 2351 1094 1035 1298 653 2186 6753 3036 1547 778 1561 1406 3299 1768 4152 1543 3122 1619 3595 947 3306 4091 854 3198 507 1283 4555 2027 1597 2189 4903 2085 1353 4444 1884 3186 1418 848 2901 2141 1570 1692 7923 2625 15924 7316 4721 3771 29672 14344 861 3517 2073 1941 21999 4524 1808 422 803 25130 2408 3334 925 680 2736 579 764 1510 4763 2901 1136 1600 2388 11142 3425 5496 643 2520 4011 1289 1562 3616 503 3186 5678 1377 1756 4590 7096 1333 13638 2632 1891 13013 2778 4063 3548 3200 3123 6344 2151 5496 3767 1540 1817 1822 2709 931 10973 814 2801 566 9648 1680 1197 2970 1386 431 625 11607 9539 2324 1165 9692 1749 1221 22019 4811 2817 4916 1248 1001 1283 2442 4769 536 1528 1920 1797 1121 1193 1591 3098 1089 2839 4786 3144 1961 4182 1391 1743 6884 3071 2049 940 9436 6355 6880 1775 1116 9512 1139 2699 2564 3116 9231 1674 959 868 3264 1428 1309 759 2470 1271 2208 1210 1609 277 4950 8132 1130 978 1394 11279 7460 4075 4597 7537 2308 1649 1535 1270 1161 1461 1439 346 3994 1300 1370 1426 3341 14566 4241 1494 2071 9398 1269 1774 6294 1552 995 1573 1948 3098 1618 4467
2020-11-13 503 1269 2886 1137 2982 1988 2297 858 3388 5807 9280 1848 2581 2101 3010 2771 2865 3676 32000 2516 8751 4724 2097 13700 1364 5817 1240 25640 1234 1444 5289 1189 3450 11400 1118 4144 1959 1405 2954 4003 8849 6766 1793 3077 2087 1850 2238 1095 3166 5223 1954 1258 2075 8054 7928 2340 1079 1054 3212 2028 1088 1032 3259 880 16140 7267 1158 1303 5066 1741 2747 1795 1119 6683 1087 10470 2959 1465 7940 6507 540 1222 1333 1662 2425 1439 8320 2720 1929 997 1444 825 1763 4864 1923 1090 2524 2378 1142 1041 1317 670 2220 6974 3086 1571 785 1607 1439 3360 1799 4197 1573 3166 1659 3638 962 3367 4153 876 3270 514 1323 4667 2032 1618 2236 5025 2128 1382 4497 1914 3236 1436 865 2922 2151 1602 1720 8340 2664 16240 7427 4785 3786 30180 14610 875 3581 2145 1989 22370 4638 1835 428 816 25670 2495 3429 967 701 2781 589 776 1543 4799 2967 1158 1639 2433 11370 3593 5578 669 2564 4138 1308 1612 3734 510 3255 5813 1413 1782 4658 7146 1343 13790 2679 1931 13400 2808 4147 3619 3278 3131 6428 2190 5607 3829 1606 1847 1851 2738 948 11240 832 2844 582 9810 1708 1229 3010 1393 437 647 11800 9800 2492 1196 9780 1768 1252 22290 4877 2897 4957 1272 1010 1325 2514 4910 548 1562 1984 1830 1152 1237 1616 3141 1108 2912 4786 3210 1996 4234 1425 1747 6964 3151 2130 959 9590 6453 7085 1807 1152 9580 1139 2754 2650 3141 9470 1733 982 889 3375 1440 1329 769 2610 1288 2219 1252 1627 285 5035 8311 1153 997 1431 11530 7540 4148 4597 7759 2356 1669 1556 1274 1173 1495 1464 359 4042 1341 1393 1444 3398 15090 4331 1522 2110 9490 1297 1791 6445 1604 1008 1586 1998 3145 1660 4529
2020-11-14 511 1286 2974 1153 3019 2011 2336 888 3441 5879 9440 1855 2632 2121 3081 2824 2894 3727 32600 2582 8847 4787 2148 13850 1399 5901 1254 26060 1249 1466 5385 1215 3499 11510 1140 4210 1979 1430 2983 4037 8960 6874 1874 3107 2115 1897 2274 1113 3212 5323 1971 1284 2109 8159 8040 2388 1108 1072 3258 2056 1099 1057 3301 898 16420 7339 1180 1326 5155 1769 2787 1843 1150 6841 1111 10660 3009 1499 8233 6582 550 1249 1359 1687 2523 1452 8574 2744 1955 1005 1471 835 1785 4943 1956 1116 2556 2405 1168 1053 1333 678 2253 7083 3136 1592 799 1651 1472 3404 1811 4241 1604 3198 1699 3690 977 3429 4207 886 3341 521 1362 4753 2070 1637 2272 5111 2177 1404 4555 1943 3285 1455 881 2967 2171 1634 1748 8600 2702 16530 7482 4830 3801 30570 14860 888 3623 2212 2035 22540 4748 1869 435 829 25880 2543 3534 1008 722 2827 600 787 1576 4898 3031 1179 1678 2477 11590 3655 5637 694 2608 4265 1322 1663 3852 517 3326 5946 1449 1821 4725 7270 1353 13930 2741 1970 13560 2835 4183 3684 3357 3191 6512 2229 5717 3915 1642 1877 1880 2766 964 11350 849 2886 596 9970 1733 1260 3050 1401 443 669 11990 9970 2567 1225 9860 1786 1284 22570 4944 2977 5026 1289 1017 1356 2556 5053 561 1592 2030 1861 1184 1269 1641 3183 1121 2985 4826 3275 2038 4285 1457 1776 7042 3232 2164 978 9750 6543 7228 1829 1171 9690 1150 2794 2758 3190 9580 1793 1004 902 3446 1451 1348 782 2721 1304 2256 1294 1634 293 5090 8405 1174 1014 1453 11710 7668 4220 4640 7831 2404 1690 1577 1294 1182 1528 1488 370 4090 1382 1415 1461 3439 15230 4417 1541 2149 9580 1315 1805 6531 1637 1020 1601 2049 3191 1702 4566
2020-11-15 520 1303 3062 1170 3060 2034 2375 918 3475 5966 9590 1861 2686 2152 3152 2873 2923 3787 33220 2650 8944 4849 2199 13990 1435 6002 1273 26480 1264 1488 5481 1240 3547 11560 1161 4277 2009 1451 3013 4069 9067 6993 1974 3138 2146 1944 2310 1127 3259 5423 1994 1308 2145 8255 8163 2437 1136 1089 3303 2084 1114 1083 3352 916 16680 7397 1202 1349 5247 1796 2809 1892 1181 6998 1136 10860 3058 1533 8534 6681 561 1277 1384 1715 2626 1465 8772 2767 1982 1011 1498 852 1807 5026 1991 1140 2597 2432 1199 1066 1351 690 2286 7195 3186 1601 823 1696 1504 3433 1833 4285 1633 3230 1740 3747 993 3491 4260 895 3415 528 1402 4858 2104 1657 2305 5189 2224 1421 4616 1973 3333 1472 897 3009 2194 1666 1776 8840 2740 16820 7539 4881 3816 30940 15130 902 3654 2279 2082 22730 4860 1907 441 841 26080 2577 3640 1051 743 2872 607 799 1608 4982 3097 1201 1716 2520 11810 3709 5677 720 2651 4389 1344 1713 3974 523 3399 6081 1484 1861 4792 7389 1363 14080 2799 2010 13720 2863 4216 3748 3439 3259 6596 2268 5827 4008 1671 1907 1909 2800 979 11480 866 2927 609 10130 1775 1292 3089 1407 448 691 12180 10130 2654 1254 9950 1805 1316 22840 5011 3057 5098 1301 1025 1389 2596 5199 573 1633 2073 1893 1216 1307 1665 3225 1138 3058 4863 3339 2079 4336 1490 1796 7121 3314 2193 998 9900 6638 7401 1841 1197 9810 1157 2837 2907 3248 9670 1854 1026 919 3511 1463 1367 795 2825 1321 2289 1337 1645 302 5146 8503 1195 1032 1479 11910 7799 4300 4688 7909 2453 1711 1596 1312 1190 1562 1512 381 4137 1424 1437 1479 3476 15400 4499 1561 2181 9670 1328 1828 6607 1651 1033 1616 2103 3238 1746 4599
2020-11-16 528 1320 3151 1186 3124 2057 2413 947 3574 6094 9750 1867 2738 2190 3223 2942 2966 3895 33830 2718 9119 4910 2250 14220 1471 6152 1301 26890 1279 1509 5577 1265 3594 11870 1181 4342 2053 1500 3076 4140 9257 7162 2104 3221 2175 1989 2346 1165 3304 5522 2036 1333 2179 8446 8339 2484 1164 1107 3349 2111 1139 1108 3431 934 17080 7511 1224 1372 5338 1822 2860 1940 1211 7154 1161 11050 3119 1568 8840 6859 572 1305 1409 1746 2731 1478 9083 2790 2009 1029 1525 874 1836 5106 2053 1174 2670 2458 1245 1085 1377 715 2319 7404 3236 1627 846 1739 1536 3531 1860 4329 1663 3293 1780 3850 1008 3553 4353 913 3489 534 1441 5027 2155 1676 2355 5337 2291 1452 4704 2002 3382 1490 912 3081 2237 1698 1803 9210 2777 17210 7627 4979 3831 31570 15390 916 3743 2345 2127 23010 4970 1973 447 854 26480 2636 3789 1094 764 2918 616 811 1641 5098 3163 1223 1753 2564 12020 3815 5807 746 2696 4515 1384 1764 4098 530 3474 6215 1519 1928 4857 7547 1373 14220 2897 2049 14000 2889 4279 3809 3522 3371 6681 2308 5938 4134 1730 1938 1938 2851 995 11700 883 2969 635 10300 1821 1325 3128 1422 454 713 12370 10410 2752 1283 10030 1824 1349 23120 5079 3138 5207 1337 1031 1425 2669 5349 586 1673 2144 1924 1249 1351 1690 3267 1171 3130 4929 3402 2137 4386 1522 1834 7199 3396 2285 1017 10060 6794 7672 1878 1222 9990 1178 2913 3071 3326 9840 1917 1048 941 3650 1474 1386 820 2988 1337 2356 1382 1670 310 5287 8659 1215 1049 1506 12250 7996 4422 4764 8036 2502 1731 1615 1339 1212 1595 1535 392 4184 1467 1459 1496 3546 15730 4578 1599 2241 9760 1361 1863 6756 1697 1045 1631 2156 3284 1789 4660
2020-11-17 537 1337 3241 1202 3184 2080 2452 977 3662 6193 9910 1873 2792 2234 3294 3005 2999 3987 34460 2787 9259 4972 2302 14410 1507 6292 1323 27310 1294 1530 5675 1291 3640 12170 1202 4409 2090 1530 3115 4186 9398 7311 2223 3264 2205 2034 2382 1193 3349 5622 2073 1357 2214 8563 8487 2532 1192 1124 3394 2139 1160 1134 3546 952 17430 7600 1246 1395 5430 1848 2908 1991 1242 7312 1187 11250 3201 1604 9157 7039 583 1333 1434 1778 2839 1492 9365 2813 2036 1041 1552 897 1869 5187 2094 1198 2731 2484 1285 1107 1397 736 2351 7566 3287 1653 878 1782 1569 3602 1889 4374 1693 3352 1820 3923 1024 3616 4431 932 3564 541 1481 5167 2224 1695 2408 5492 2347 1475 4782 2032 3430 1507 927 3139 2267 1730 1831 9570 2814 17590 7692 5051 3846 32080 15650 929 3814 2412 2172 23230 5083 2016 453 867 26810 2696 3927 1138 784 2964 628 822 1674 5206 3231 1245 1790 2607 12220 3885 5904 773 2740 4642 1411 1815 4226 536 3552 6353 1554 1984 4921 7731 1383 14370 2977 2088 14220 2915 4342 3869 3607 3461 6767 2348 6052 4245 1799 1968 1967 2897 1011 11860 901 3011 651 10460 1875 1358 3168 1432 460 736 12570 10680 2894 1311 10110 1843 1382 23400 5147 3220 5328 1360 1037 1467 2729 5502 599 1715 2199 1956 1282 1395 1714 3309 1189 3203 5006 3467 2192 4436 1555 1863 7278 3481 2347 1037 10210 6916 7934 1898 1249 10210 1193 2968 3231 3401 9990 1981 1069 957 3749 1485 1406 837 3120 1354 2404 1427 1697 318 5386 8799 1235 1066 1532 12500 8175 4521 4818 8130 2551 1752 1633 1363 1235 1629 1559 403 4231 1511 1481 1513 3611 15970 4657 1634 2284 9850 1380 1887 6887 1736 1058 1646 2211 3331 1834 4716
2020-11-18 545 1354 3333 1219 3255 2103 2491 1007 3763 6305 10070 1880 2847 2273 3367 3071 3038 4100 35100 2859 9391 5034 2355 14610 1545 6442 1345 27730 1308 1551 5775 1317 3686 12390 1223 4476 2125 1565 3159 4243 9554 7490 2307 3333 2235 2080 2418 1224 3395 5723 2113 1382 2250 8700 8646 2581 1221 1142 3440 2167 1185 1161 3617 970 17800 7697 1269 1418 5524 1874 2955 2042 1273 7472 1213 11450 3280 1640 9486 7202 594 1362 1460 1827 2952 1505 9584 2836 2063 1056 1580 913 1893 5271 2146 1229 2782 2510 1325 1141 1425 746 2384 7738 3337 1686 907 1826 1603 3681 1907 4418 1723 3416 1861 4010 1040 3679 4506 944 3642 548 1521 5325 2283 1715 2450 5619 2404 1497 4850 2061 3479 1525 942 3198 2306 1763 1859 9890 2852 18000 7755 5127 3861 32600 15910 943 3882 2480 2219 23460 5198 2079 459 879 27110 2769 4078 1185 805 3011 638 834 1708 5303 3300 1267 1827 2651 12430 3960 6001 801 2785 4770 1446 1868 4358 542 3631 6494 1589 2031 4986 7898 1393 14510 3058 2128 14450 2940 4403 3930 3694 3555 6855 2388 6167 4367 1848 1999 1996 2940 1026 12050 919 3053 667 10630 1935 1392 3208 1448 466 760 12760 10920 3002 1340 10200 1862 1416 23680 5216 3305 5431 1377 1044 1504 2801 5661 612 1760 2267 1988 1315 1443 1738 3351 1229 3278 5071 3532 2245 4486 1587 1895 7357 3567 2409 1057 10370 7071 8146 1923 1286 10370 1205 3037 3439 3462 10120 2048 1091 981 3875 1496 1426 856 3260 1371 2454 1475 1723 327 5500 8918 1254 1083 1564 12760 8361 4618 4906 8222 2601 1773 1652 1393 1257 1664 1583 414 4278 1557 1503 1531 3667 16200 4734 1660 2331 9940 1400 1907 7035 1777 1070 1662 2268 3378 1881 4768
2020-11-19 553 1371 3425 1236 3313 2127 2530 1038 3843 6393 10230 1886 2903 2294 3440 3123 3070 4199 35750 2933 9507 5097 2408 14790 1584 6562 1368 28150 1323 1572 5877 1344 3732 12830 1244 4545 2157 1591 3189 4295 9672 7606 2366 3380 2266 2125 2454 1242 3440 5825 2135 1407 2287 8821 8770 2630 1249 1161 3486 2195 1204 1188 3682 988 18110 7805 1292 1441 5619 1900 3000 2096 1305 7633 1240 11650 3312 1678 9827 7345 605 1390 1486 1857 3070 1519 9807 2860 2091 1065 1608 925 1920 5355 2188 1246 2827 2537 1357 1151 1447 763 2417 7862 3389 1714 933 1870 1637 3738 1932 4463 1753 3456 1902 4097 1056 3742 4559 955 3721 555 1562 5473 2333 1734 2480 5742 2455 1518 4931 2091 3529 1543 957 3245 2342 1797 1888 10190 2890 18350 7813 5206 3877 33060 16180 957 3924 2550 2265 23640 5317 2154 465 892 27400 2816 4234 1234 827 3059 644 847 1742 5394 3371 1289 1864 2696 12650 4037 6113 831 2830 4901 1480 1921 4495 549 3713 6638 1625 2095 5051 8037 1403 14660 3128 2167 14640 2965 4451 3991 3783 3638 6944 2430 6285 4471 1890 2030 2025 2974 1042 12210 937 3095 688 10790 1971 1427 3248 1460 472 784 12960 11170 3067 1369 10280 1882 1451 23960 5287 3393 5518 1402 1050 1537 2853 5824 625 1786 2311 2021 1349 1487 1763 3394 1254 3353 5187 3597 2292 4537 1621 1924 7437 3656 2473 1078 10530 7161 8362 1948 1316 10510 1226 3098 3671 3520 10270 2118 1113 998 3968 1507 1446 879 3378 1388 2494 1524 1759 335 5597 9030 1274 1100 1582 12960 8512 4718 5015 8324 2652 1794 1670 1423 1273 1700 1607 425 4326 1604 1525 1548 3728 16420 4811 1684 2381 10040 1424 1955 7168 1822 1083 1678 2326 3426 1928 4815

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-13 to 2020-11-19

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-12 494 1254 2798 1121 2910 1964 2257 828 3299 5795 9125 1842 2528 2047 2939 2692 2834 3580 31397 2449 8515 4660 2046 13373 1330 5707 1219 25216 1218 1422 5193 1164 3398 11050 1096 4076 1926 1391 2881 3957 8639 6681 1682 3061 2058 1800 2202 1080 3117 5122 1936 1232 2038 7963 7854 2291 1049 1036 3166 1999 1080 1007 3226 861 15886 7259 1136 1279 4974 1711 2704 1747 1088 6524 1063 10276 2877 1431 7651 6439 530 1195 1307 1646 2328 1429 8033 2695 1901 992 1416 817 1762 4781 1880 1064 2475 2351 1094 1035 1298 653 2186 6753 3036 1547 778 1561 1406 3299 1768 4152 1543 3122 1619 3595 947 3306 4091 854 3198 507 1283 4555 2027 1597 2189 4903 2085 1353 4444 1884 3186 1418 848 2901 2141 1570 1692 7923 2625 15924 7316 4721 3771 29672 14344 861 3517 2073 1941 21999 4524 1808 422 803 25130 2408 3334 925 680 2736 579 764 1510 4763 2901 1136 1600 2388 11142 3425 5496 643 2520 4011 1289 1562 3616 503 3186 5678 1377 1756 4590 7096 1333 13638 2632 1891 13013 2778 4063 3548 3200 3123 6344 2151 5496 3767 1540 1817 1822 2709 931 10973 814 2801 566 9648 1680 1197 2970 1386 431 625 11607 9539 2324 1165 9692 1749 1221 22019 4811 2817 4916 1248 1001 1283 2442 4769 536 1528 1920 1797 1121 1193 1591 3098 1089 2839 4786 3144 1961 4182 1391 1743 6884 3071 2049 940 9436 6355 6880 1775 1116 9512 1139 2699 2564 3116 9231 1674 959 868 3264 1428 1309 759 2470 1271 2208 1210 1609 277 4950 8132 1130 978 1394 11279 7460 4075 4597 7537 2308 1649 1535 1270 1161 1461 1439 346 3994 1300 1370 1426 3341 14566 4241 1494 2071 9398 1269 1774 6294 1552 995 1573 1948 3098 1618 4467
2020-11-13 505 1282 2871 1140 2971 1987 2298 848 3375 5890 9240 1855 2581 2089 3009 2751 2869 3684 32000 2518 8634 4721 2103 13560 1379 5824 1241 25640 1236 1442 5291 1191 3446 11330 1122 4145 1965 1421 2917 4002 8771 6814 1734 3118 2105 1848 2233 1098 3171 5211 1962 1258 2073 8099 7996 2333 1075 1052 3200 2024 1100 1027 3290 881 16170 7399 1156 1304 5063 1740 2759 1794 1120 6684 1089 10380 2938 1467 7903 6537 540 1224 1334 1679 2450 1464 8271 2763 1934 1002 1448 831 1785 4876 1923 1085 2521 2381 1125 1056 1320 666 2220 6890 3071 1578 803 1608 1437 3368 1794 4188 1573 3171 1662 3656 964 3369 4148 869 3273 517 1321 4674 2061 1619 2227 5002 2136 1376 4510 1914 3226 1433 865 2951 2170 1604 1718 8230 2666 16290 7376 4803 3804 30170 14600 875 3568 2141 1994 22210 4613 1860 431 814 25430 2465 3453 962 697 2782 589 775 1545 4858 2969 1157 1635 2427 11320 3519 5595 664 2553 4148 1319 1615 3736 511 3277 5813 1416 1820 4676 7228 1361 13770 2699 1929 13220 2828 4114 3611 3280 3200 6430 2187 5610 3864 1586 1846 1848 2736 949 11150 835 2839 585 9770 1719 1228 3007 1404 439 643 11750 9770 2453 1191 9790 1782 1251 22230 4925 2897 5011 1270 1020 1315 2498 4909 551 1557 1969 1836 1160 1230 1617 3129 1124 2913 4872 3214 1998 4228 1427 1769 6938 3162 2102 962 9580 6465 7071 1804 1160 9660 1156 2759 2719 3176 9360 1723 981 885 3361 1440 1328 775 2576 1295 2245 1245 1640 284 5063 8244 1150 999 1420 11520 7617 4160 4671 7631 2351 1673 1556 1300 1176 1492 1468 353 4034 1339 1391 1443 3395 14770 4317 1524 2115 9475 1292 1815 6427 1609 1006 1602 1995 3135 1665 4512
2020-11-14 511 1306 2953 1158 3005 2007 2338 870 3427 5958 9360 1865 2622 2112 3083 2798 2902 3752 32580 2580 8723 4776 2145 13720 1420 5912 1257 26060 1251 1459 5378 1218 3497 11550 1147 4203 1990 1449 2951 4042 8900 6933 1778 3151 2147 1887 2267 1111 3222 5298 1977 1282 2101 8208 8123 2374 1096 1066 3227 2050 1121 1042 3349 901 16470 7531 1172 1329 5135 1764 2807 1839 1148 6853 1109 10500 2993 1500 8163 6600 550 1257 1360 1708 2567 1488 8508 2830 1962 1011 1472 844 1808 4953 1961 1105 2553 2407 1153 1067 1339 674 2240 7016 3112 1608 828 1651 1472 3424 1818 4225 1605 3213 1699 3693 980 3429 4188 884 3340 525 1360 4763 2098 1636 2268 5084 2192 1396 4573 1944 3267 1450 880 2999 2192 1631 1743 8540 2700 16600 7431 4844 3829 30550 14840 889 3605 2203 2045 22350 4694 1900 437 824 25660 2515 3549 998 715 2819 599 786 1575 4949 3028 1180 1663 2463 11490 3603 5678 688 2592 4273 1342 1672 3846 517 3370 5925 1450 1866 4757 7358 1379 13900 2758 1968 13420 2871 4152 3656 3362 3271 6519 2221 5714 3955 1631 1878 1875 2762 967 11260 851 2875 597 9870 1746 1254 3038 1414 446 659 11870 9950 2541 1215 9880 1811 1278 22480 5045 2962 5089 1291 1035 1339 2548 5058 564 1583 2010 1864 1192 1260 1643 3161 1152 2969 4955 3282 2033 4265 1463 1798 6985 3254 2141 981 9710 6567 7239 1834 1183 9800 1174 2798 2832 3238 9470 1767 998 895 3441 1449 1344 792 2669 1317 2279 1283 1671 292 5130 8326 1169 1019 1440 11670 7760 4227 4735 7717 2399 1696 1575 1315 1188 1524 1491 363 4073 1380 1411 1455 3438 14900 4387 1544 2155 9537 1312 1836 6538 1644 1016 1634 2048 3173 1714 4552
2020-11-15 518 1330 3030 1175 3043 2027 2378 894 3461 6047 9490 1875 2664 2143 3159 2844 2935 3822 33160 2643 8815 4830 2199 13870 1461 6012 1278 26490 1267 1477 5463 1246 3542 11760 1171 4261 2022 1475 2985 4079 9030 7060 1824 3186 2191 1926 2294 1122 3273 5388 1994 1306 2129 8307 8255 2418 1120 1080 3259 2076 1144 1062 3413 920 16760 7660 1189 1350 5208 1789 2848 1883 1176 7025 1128 10600 3047 1533 8427 6697 560 1290 1385 1739 2689 1516 8722 2901 1989 1018 1495 861 1830 5029 2000 1122 2589 2433 1182 1076 1358 686 2269 7144 3152 1638 855 1690 1502 3475 1843 4264 1637 3255 1733 3737 996 3492 4231 900 3412 533 1399 4852 2126 1654 2308 5165 2246 1414 4638 1974 3307 1467 894 3047 2216 1657 1767 8840 2734 16880 7484 4892 3853 30930 15060 899 3636 2268 2096 22500 4773 1942 444 835 25870 2559 3643 1033 733 2858 608 796 1603 5035 3088 1203 1696 2495 11660 3685 5757 711 2632 4399 1366 1730 3960 522 3465 6036 1486 1917 4842 7486 1398 14030 2812 2007 13610 2915 4188 3704 3444 3344 6611 2256 5817 4048 1672 1910 1901 2794 984 11380 866 2912 609 9980 1780 1284 3069 1427 454 674 12000 10130 2646 1239 9970 1843 1307 22730 5166 3022 5171 1311 1049 1366 2595 5209 576 1613 2052 1893 1229 1294 1668 3197 1182 3030 5038 3349 2064 4305 1496 1817 7041 3349 2178 999 9850 6672 7417 1855 1214 9940 1190 2839 2958 3304 9580 1812 1017 907 3524 1459 1361 808 2759 1340 2312 1323 1708 300 5196 8413 1186 1035 1463 11830 7907 4302 4807 7807 2449 1719 1595 1330 1200 1556 1515 372 4114 1422 1430 1468 3478 15050 4445 1566 2194 9604 1327 1865 6651 1663 1026 1665 2100 3211 1764 4589
2020-11-16 526 1355 3138 1201 3105 2048 2422 917 3555 6173 9640 1888 2709 2182 3235 2915 2973 3928 33810 2710 8993 4885 2268 14100 1510 6158 1304 26920 1287 1497 5577 1273 3621 12130 1198 4322 2070 1517 3034 4142 9203 7204 1878 3253 2249 1965 2334 1141 3324 5487 2025 1333 2162 8489 8414 2464 1149 1094 3318 2102 1170 1081 3487 940 17090 7816 1214 1378 5286 1821 2902 1935 1204 7216 1155 10840 3114 1569 8774 6857 570 1327 1418 1773 2828 1556 8999 2980 2017 1039 1528 881 1854 5105 2046 1152 2663 2460 1213 1097 1381 710 2309 7297 3201 1671 884 1742 1537 3542 1871 4306 1669 3301 1780 3804 1012 3570 4306 917 3486 540 1441 5014 2184 1671 2357 5278 2314 1439 4718 2004 3359 1486 911 3107 2247 1688 1800 9230 2768 17310 7552 4991 3885 31570 15380 913 3706 2340 2148 22720 4856 2013 452 851 26260 2616 3785 1072 751 2907 618 807 1637 5143 3154 1227 1731 2545 11830 3788 5885 735 2680 4551 1402 1789 4083 532 3568 6182 1524 2002 4931 7626 1423 14170 2909 2047 13860 2962 4247 3772 3531 3447 6707 2293 5920 4150 1730 1952 1928 2844 1002 11610 882 2948 632 10190 1819 1318 3104 1447 462 691 12220 10400 2769 1268 10070 1882 1337 23000 5290 3095 5276 1335 1065 1396 2666 5365 590 1643 2116 1925 1278 1333 1696 3240 1227 3111 5130 3424 2111 4360 1543 1855 7132 3451 2268 1020 10010 6801 7635 1898 1242 10110 1219 2898 3089 3378 9740 1869 1042 922 3648 1469 1379 829 2877 1366 2389 1367 1760 309 5352 8559 1206 1055 1488 12200 8090 4433 4894 7920 2502 1746 1616 1352 1218 1589 1545 384 4161 1466 1459 1488 3540 15370 4536 1599 2237 9718 1358 1907 6796 1712 1039 1702 2160 3254 1814 4640
2020-11-17 534 1379 3242 1233 3163 2068 2468 941 3642 6270 9790 1898 2754 2223 3313 2982 3008 4020 34450 2777 9141 4940 2336 14300 1555 6283 1327 27350 1305 1515 5683 1302 3704 12540 1225 4389 2106 1551 3077 4192 9358 7338 1931 3300 2302 2005 2375 1161 3375 5581 2057 1361 2200 8619 8565 2511 1178 1109 3361 2128 1194 1099 3569 960 17430 7949 1232 1407 5364 1848 2954 1983 1234 7424 1183 11080 3173 1605 9092 6998 580 1360 1444 1805 2972 1592 9252 3056 2045 1052 1560 900 1878 5198 2089 1170 2725 2486 1244 1116 1401 728 2338 7441 3251 1704 917 1786 1571 3605 1897 4348 1702 3347 1820 3855 1029 3641 4367 935 3559 548 1485 5149 2239 1688 2406 5391 2374 1459 4792 2035 3407 1504 927 3158 2273 1714 1831 9620 2802 17760 7613 5075 3910 32090 15670 926 3762 2406 2201 22910 4945 2067 459 867 26600 2673 3915 1111 769 2953 629 817 1671 5238 3217 1250 1766 2594 11990 3889 5994 760 2728 4690 1432 1849 4211 540 3674 6311 1563 2062 5016 7767 1443 14310 2982 2087 14090 3002 4310 3833 3620 3544 6808 2331 6025 4249 1798 1986 1956 2883 1020 11790 898 2985 645 10380 1856 1348 3138 1463 468 707 12420 10660 2886 1297 10160 1922 1367 23290 5417 3171 5390 1357 1081 1425 2752 5525 603 1674 2166 1954 1317 1373 1724 3280 1256 3201 5224 3501 2152 4403 1581 1880 7217 3552 2339 1040 10180 6918 7850 1930 1278 10300 1239 2947 3229 3447 9900 1934 1061 936 3755 1479 1397 847 2976 1386 2434 1410 1817 320 5459 8682 1225 1071 1511 12450 8261 4525 4973 8026 2555 1769 1636 1370 1237 1622 1572 393 4206 1510 1481 1503 3611 15640 4618 1631 2279 9806 1380 1932 6941 1755 1053 1735 2219 3300 1867 4690
2020-11-18 542 1405 3351 1258 3227 2089 2512 966 3736 6361 9950 1909 2802 2267 3393 3061 3045 4126 35100 2844 9300 4996 2388 14520 1599 6417 1350 27790 1329 1536 5791 1331 3759 12930 1251 4452 2142 1583 3122 4240 9521 7487 1981 3346 2360 2045 2413 1181 3427 5682 2083 1389 2237 8742 8719 2560 1204 1123 3398 2155 1221 1114 3644 980 17750 8095 1254 1432 5445 1874 2999 2036 1263 7617 1207 11290 3232 1641 9443 7143 591 1396 1475 1845 3119 1630 9507 3134 2074 1068 1594 918 1901 5282 2132 1189 2776 2513 1276 1136 1425 739 2377 7589 3305 1738 949 1832 1603 3668 1925 4387 1736 3395 1860 3909 1046 3712 4428 953 3630 556 1530 5293 2281 1706 2451 5491 2433 1482 4863 2065 3457 1521 944 3213 2303 1738 1866 10030 2837 18200 7672 5140 3939 32610 15960 941 3815 2480 2256 23070 5030 2129 465 881 26940 2736 4055 1149 787 2999 639 827 1705 5338 3283 1275 1798 2644 12170 3997 6103 786 2772 4831 1465 1912 4338 547 3783 6446 1602 2123 5107 7911 1463 14460 3052 2128 14340 3043 4375 3895 3713 3628 6905 2368 6132 4357 1856 2019 1983 2921 1039 11990 915 3023 659 10550 1897 1376 3173 1487 474 724 12630 10920 3002 1326 10240 1960 1398 23590 5549 3239 5480 1378 1095 1456 2823 5692 617 1705 2224 1985 1347 1414 1752 3319 1306 3277 5315 3576 2189 4458 1617 1902 7306 3667 2405 1060 10340 7049 8053 1966 1332 10450 1256 3001 3381 3519 10050 1988 1084 952 3873 1489 1413 866 3086 1411 2476 1454 1870 329 5588 8798 1243 1087 1537 12690 8424 4620 5070 8142 2607 1796 1656 1388 1256 1657 1601 404 4249 1557 1505 1519 3665 15910 4697 1658 2322 9905 1401 1955 7089 1800 1066 1772 2274 3343 1921 4738
2020-11-19 550 1431 3446 1282 3279 2110 2557 992 3823 6437 10110 1917 2845 2296 3474 3124 3080 4224 35750 2914 9445 5053 2454 14720 1646 6549 1375 28240 1351 1554 5900 1361 3812 13350 1279 4517 2180 1614 3164 4298 9682 7614 2026 3381 2418 2086 2452 1197 3479 5773 2102 1416 2271 8865 8852 2606 1233 1138 3435 2183 1249 1130 3720 1001 18070 8243 1274 1455 5519 1904 3047 2093 1294 7811 1231 11450 3293 1678 9807 7270 601 1432 1505 1873 3274 1668 9761 3214 2103 1079 1631 933 1925 5369 2176 1209 2821 2540 1308 1144 1446 758 2405 7736 3349 1773 980 1881 1639 3728 1953 4427 1770 3440 1901 3958 1064 3788 4471 970 3706 564 1575 5435 2317 1724 2497 5597 2500 1501 4941 2097 3510 1538 961 3264 2329 1763 1902 10420 2872 18640 7734 5208 3962 33120 16250 954 3857 2553 2311 23250 5116 2194 470 897 27270 2795 4179 1191 807 3044 649 837 1738 5412 3351 1299 1832 2697 12340 4098 6222 813 2821 4978 1495 1977 4469 556 3901 6575 1641 2190 5198 8054 1484 14600 3113 2170 14590 3087 4431 3945 3805 3712 7004 2407 6240 4455 1914 2055 2011 2956 1057 12190 932 3061 675 10710 1931 1408 3205 1502 482 740 12820 11170 3123 1354 10340 1998 1430 23860 5684 3308 5575 1401 1116 1486 2891 5864 632 1732 2273 2017 1380 1455 1781 3353 1347 3353 5417 3653 2232 4500 1659 1925 7366 3776 2487 1081 10490 7162 8263 2003 1374 10600 1281 3051 3537 3587 10210 2054 1100 968 3983 1500 1431 887 3197 1437 2518 1499 1928 337 5687 8913 1262 1104 1561 12920 8582 4709 5150 8266 2662 1824 1676 1402 1271 1692 1625 417 4288 1604 1531 1533 3720 16180 4783 1685 2366 9983 1426 1997 7231 1845 1079 1807 2339 3384 1978 4788

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.