COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-12

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	10-21	11-01	--	10-25	--	11-01	--	--	11-01	10-19	10-04	--	--	10-31	10-31	--	--	--	--	10-19	10-11	10-31	10-19	--	10-31	--	10-31	--	10-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	10-29	--	10-05	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-16	--	--	--	11-01	--	10-22	--	--	10-13	10-14	10-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	10-18	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	10-07	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	10-30	10-15	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	10-18	--	--	11-01	10-13	--	10-29	11-01	10-13	--	09-30	10-28	10-07	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	11-01	09-23	10-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	09-27	09-27	--	--	--	11-01	10-25	--	--	--	05-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	10-11	10-07	--	10-25	--	10-11	--	10-19	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-22	11-01	--	--	10-31	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	10-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	11-01	10-13	10-30	10-18	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	10-22	11-01	--	10-12	--	10-07
Peak daily increment		37	92		61		44			100	187	32			80	67					163	95	58	233		134		446		54									56	72		143		50			39			115				140		53			60	34	26							31								242						50											30				53	82					41		69							70	33	53				71								21					77		58			61	33		32	351	45		153	74	85		313					480				14	427	63										25		59	221				55	147				15								457			259		63									42	40	45		193		62		197			66				227				194			399							71									63						58			119				179	124			36	175					169					23							48			141				256				131									82		26	24	60	312				140					14	43		64		92
Days since peak		22	11		18		11			11	24	39			12	12					24	32	12	24		12		12		28									32	46		14		38			18			27				11		21			30	29	13							25								25						11											38				25	46					32		36							39	13	28				11								24					11		25			11	30		14	11	30		43	15	36		11					45				11	50	16										22		46	46				11	18				192								43			18		31									11	32	36		18		32		24			37				25				39			44							14									30						31			39				21	11			12	11					25					39							17			18				15				21									39		11	30	13	25				39					21	11		31		36
Last total	494	1254	2798	1121	2910	1964	2257	828	3299	5795	9125	1842	2528	2047	2939	2692	2834	3580	31397	2449	8515	4660	2046	13373	1330	5707	1219	25216	1218	1422	5193	1164	3398	11050	1096	4076	1926	1391	2881	3957	8639	6681	1682	3061	2058	1800	2202	1080	3117	5122	1936	1232	2038	7963	7854	2291	1049	1036	3166	1999	1080	1007	3226	861	15886	7259	1136	1279	4974	1711	2704	1747	1088	6524	1063	10276	2877	1431	7651	6439	530	1195	1307	1646	2328	1429	8033	2695	1901	992	1416	817	1762	4781	1880	1064	2475	2351	1094	1035	1298	653	2186	6753	3036	1547	778	1561	1406	3299	1768	4152	1543	3122	1619	3595	947	3306	4091	854	3198	507	1283	4555	2027	1597	2189	4903	2085	1353	4444	1884	3186	1418	848	2901	2141	1570	1692	7923	2625	15924	7316	4721	3771	29672	14344	861	3517	2073	1941	21999	4524	1808	422	803	25130	2408	3334	925	680	2736	579	764	1510	4763	2901	1136	1600	2388	11142	3425	5496	643	2520	4011	1289	1562	3616	503	3186	5678	1377	1756	4590	7096	1333	13638	2632	1891	13013	2778	4063	3548	3200	3123	6344	2151	5496	3767	1540	1817	1822	2709	931	10973	814	2801	566	9648	1680	1197	2970	1386	431	625	11607	9539	2324	1165	9692	1749	1221	22019	4811	2817	4916	1248	1001	1283	2442	4769	536	1528	1920	1797	1121	1193	1591	3098	1089	2839	4786	3144	1961	4182	1391	1743	6884	3071	2049	940	9436	6355	6880	1775	1116	9512	1139	2699	2564	3116	9231	1674	959	868	3264	1428	1309	759	2470	1271	2208	1210	1609	277	4950	8132	1130	978	1394	11279	7460	4075	4597	7537	2308	1649	1535	1270	1161	1461	1439	346	3994	1300	1370	1426	3341	14566	4241	1494	2071	9398	1269	1774	6294	1552	995	1573	1948	3098	1618	4467
Last daily increment	13	35	57	22	56	27	41	9	66	99	116	13	62	33	55	46	31	101	550	72	119	75	39	165	33	108	22	421	16	13	100	22	44	341	24	79	31	25	26	43	96	116	64	55	44	51	31	29	52	75	35	20	29	127	121	36	30	16	39	17	16	10	55	17	281	122	23	23	82	32	51	57	31	141	26	144	41	34	242	144	6	23	26	28	97	21	217	64	29	10	23	15	28	122	42	16	43	36	31	10	25	17	32	108	30	26	21	52	13	68	27	33	27	42	54	79	17	51	54	7	78	14	36	141	46	19	21	115	43	28	84	25	55	10	20	45	43	32	21	269	44	340	58	86	22	455	245	16	48	63	48	174	93	62	6	12	278	30	138	52	13	48	5	11	38	89	76	15	27	43	151	87	103	15	22	113	36	41	123	8	88	140	44	60	75	135	22	105	69	31	150	45	49	45	63	92	83	33	125	99	26	24	20	30	22	159	23	32	23	123	33	24	35	13	4	17	159	227	66	34	105	27	27	174	104	83	86	17	27	33	42	130	14	23	37	58	30	41	21	42	27	66	103	59	48	59	35	30	62	84	51	22	134	81	177	25	27	143	19	66	215	62	140	48	11	21	74	12	22	22	106	24	39	30	29	3	102	107	23	23	20	182	156	102	92	88	33	24	21	35	19	30	19	8	38	37	17	11	65	170	80	29	48	87	25	41	119	40	10	19	40	36	46	40
Last week	51	161	486	147	334	143	234	142	423	663	854	115	323	213	400	347	215	559	3649	402	759	362	306	1073	282	749	129	2465	117	170	596	151	435	1788	160	421	241	197	248	309	809	886	324	334	308	318	198	128	359	593	197	157	208	812	906	269	153	97	275	162	135	121	414	116	1867	895	125	167	505	174	304	281	190	943	153	994	375	184	1516	755	55	201	162	214	653	189	1415	433	195	94	143	107	183	547	239	151	316	190	163	117	135	89	209	774	270	173	158	278	192	409	172	259	164	319	281	364	103	380	411	84	457	68	222	727	290	125	249	600	344	149	459	197	272	110	91	357	217	197	145	1697	262	2154	410	450	180	2970	1614	91	328	367	337	1211	514	301	48	72	1794	301	686	205	107	264	63	70	193	604	386	121	218	257	1109	487	612	122	238	730	178	298	669	55	548	777	226	359	556	873	169	773	415	243	1166	326	300	375	491	542	592	216	661	612	249	205	156	260	124	971	114	235	102	877	251	184	216	108	41	107	985	1376	508	160	675	212	178	1493	682	456	605	137	126	167	332	800	75	182	282	208	263	199	161	246	197	418	571	433	252	331	219	202	407	493	325	124	861	748	1206	182	170	1008	135	306	733	389	782	277	129	100	564	67	119	110	592	164	311	220	228	50	680	730	124	123	156	1434	1007	556	539	554	293	150	146	151	101	189	164	54	274	242	131	109	343	1259	499	186	264	504	143	211	801	217	68	186	295	255	246	309
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											73																																																																																	75	75																																						75																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2																																																																																													16																																																																																																																				2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-13 to 2020-11-19

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-12	494	1254	2798	1121	2910	1964	2257	828	3299	5795	9125	1842	2528	2047	2939	2692	2834	3580	31397	2449	8515	4660	2046	13373	1330	5707	1219	25216	1218	1422	5193	1164	3398	11050	1096	4076	1926	1391	2881	3957	8639	6681	1682	3061	2058	1800	2202	1080	3117	5122	1936	1232	2038	7963	7854	2291	1049	1036	3166	1999	1080	1007	3226	861	15886	7259	1136	1279	4974	1711	2704	1747	1088	6524	1063	10276	2877	1431	7651	6439	530	1195	1307	1646	2328	1429	8033	2695	1901	992	1416	817	1762	4781	1880	1064	2475	2351	1094	1035	1298	653	2186	6753	3036	1547	778	1561	1406	3299	1768	4152	1543	3122	1619	3595	947	3306	4091	854	3198	507	1283	4555	2027	1597	2189	4903	2085	1353	4444	1884	3186	1418	848	2901	2141	1570	1692	7923	2625	15924	7316	4721	3771	29672	14344	861	3517	2073	1941	21999	4524	1808	422	803	25130	2408	3334	925	680	2736	579	764	1510	4763	2901	1136	1600	2388	11142	3425	5496	643	2520	4011	1289	1562	3616	503	3186	5678	1377	1756	4590	7096	1333	13638	2632	1891	13013	2778	4063	3548	3200	3123	6344	2151	5496	3767	1540	1817	1822	2709	931	10973	814	2801	566	9648	1680	1197	2970	1386	431	625	11607	9539	2324	1165	9692	1749	1221	22019	4811	2817	4916	1248	1001	1283	2442	4769	536	1528	1920	1797	1121	1193	1591	3098	1089	2839	4786	3144	1961	4182	1391	1743	6884	3071	2049	940	9436	6355	6880	1775	1116	9512	1139	2699	2564	3116	9231	1674	959	868	3264	1428	1309	759	2470	1271	2208	1210	1609	277	4950	8132	1130	978	1394	11279	7460	4075	4597	7537	2308	1649	1535	1270	1161	1461	1439	346	3994	1300	1370	1426	3341	14566	4241	1494	2071	9398	1269	1774	6294	1552	995	1573	1948	3098	1618	4467
2020-11-13	503	1269	2886	1137	2982	1988	2297	858	3388	5807	9280	1848	2581	2101	3010	2771	2865	3676	32000	2516	8751	4724	2097	13700	1364	5817	1240	25640	1234	1444	5289	1189	3450	11400	1118	4144	1959	1405	2954	4003	8849	6766	1793	3077	2087	1850	2238	1095	3166	5223	1954	1258	2075	8054	7928	2340	1079	1054	3212	2028	1088	1032	3259	880	16140	7267	1158	1303	5066	1741	2747	1795	1119	6683	1087	10470	2959	1465	7940	6507	540	1222	1333	1662	2425	1439	8320	2720	1929	997	1444	825	1763	4864	1923	1090	2524	2378	1142	1041	1317	670	2220	6974	3086	1571	785	1607	1439	3360	1799	4197	1573	3166	1659	3638	962	3367	4153	876	3270	514	1323	4667	2032	1618	2236	5025	2128	1382	4497	1914	3236	1436	865	2922	2151	1602	1720	8340	2664	16240	7427	4785	3786	30180	14610	875	3581	2145	1989	22370	4638	1835	428	816	25670	2495	3429	967	701	2781	589	776	1543	4799	2967	1158	1639	2433	11370	3593	5578	669	2564	4138	1308	1612	3734	510	3255	5813	1413	1782	4658	7146	1343	13790	2679	1931	13400	2808	4147	3619	3278	3131	6428	2190	5607	3829	1606	1847	1851	2738	948	11240	832	2844	582	9810	1708	1229	3010	1393	437	647	11800	9800	2492	1196	9780	1768	1252	22290	4877	2897	4957	1272	1010	1325	2514	4910	548	1562	1984	1830	1152	1237	1616	3141	1108	2912	4786	3210	1996	4234	1425	1747	6964	3151	2130	959	9590	6453	7085	1807	1152	9580	1139	2754	2650	3141	9470	1733	982	889	3375	1440	1329	769	2610	1288	2219	1252	1627	285	5035	8311	1153	997	1431	11530	7540	4148	4597	7759	2356	1669	1556	1274	1173	1495	1464	359	4042	1341	1393	1444	3398	15090	4331	1522	2110	9490	1297	1791	6445	1604	1008	1586	1998	3145	1660	4529
2020-11-14	511	1286	2974	1153	3019	2011	2336	888	3441	5879	9440	1855	2632	2121	3081	2824	2894	3727	32600	2582	8847	4787	2148	13850	1399	5901	1254	26060	1249	1466	5385	1215	3499	11510	1140	4210	1979	1430	2983	4037	8960	6874	1874	3107	2115	1897	2274	1113	3212	5323	1971	1284	2109	8159	8040	2388	1108	1072	3258	2056	1099	1057	3301	898	16420	7339	1180	1326	5155	1769	2787	1843	1150	6841	1111	10660	3009	1499	8233	6582	550	1249	1359	1687	2523	1452	8574	2744	1955	1005	1471	835	1785	4943	1956	1116	2556	2405	1168	1053	1333	678	2253	7083	3136	1592	799	1651	1472	3404	1811	4241	1604	3198	1699	3690	977	3429	4207	886	3341	521	1362	4753	2070	1637	2272	5111	2177	1404	4555	1943	3285	1455	881	2967	2171	1634	1748	8600	2702	16530	7482	4830	3801	30570	14860	888	3623	2212	2035	22540	4748	1869	435	829	25880	2543	3534	1008	722	2827	600	787	1576	4898	3031	1179	1678	2477	11590	3655	5637	694	2608	4265	1322	1663	3852	517	3326	5946	1449	1821	4725	7270	1353	13930	2741	1970	13560	2835	4183	3684	3357	3191	6512	2229	5717	3915	1642	1877	1880	2766	964	11350	849	2886	596	9970	1733	1260	3050	1401	443	669	11990	9970	2567	1225	9860	1786	1284	22570	4944	2977	5026	1289	1017	1356	2556	5053	561	1592	2030	1861	1184	1269	1641	3183	1121	2985	4826	3275	2038	4285	1457	1776	7042	3232	2164	978	9750	6543	7228	1829	1171	9690	1150	2794	2758	3190	9580	1793	1004	902	3446	1451	1348	782	2721	1304	2256	1294	1634	293	5090	8405	1174	1014	1453	11710	7668	4220	4640	7831	2404	1690	1577	1294	1182	1528	1488	370	4090	1382	1415	1461	3439	15230	4417	1541	2149	9580	1315	1805	6531	1637	1020	1601	2049	3191	1702	4566
2020-11-15	520	1303	3062	1170	3060	2034	2375	918	3475	5966	9590	1861	2686	2152	3152	2873	2923	3787	33220	2650	8944	4849	2199	13990	1435	6002	1273	26480	1264	1488	5481	1240	3547	11560	1161	4277	2009	1451	3013	4069	9067	6993	1974	3138	2146	1944	2310	1127	3259	5423	1994	1308	2145	8255	8163	2437	1136	1089	3303	2084	1114	1083	3352	916	16680	7397	1202	1349	5247	1796	2809	1892	1181	6998	1136	10860	3058	1533	8534	6681	561	1277	1384	1715	2626	1465	8772	2767	1982	1011	1498	852	1807	5026	1991	1140	2597	2432	1199	1066	1351	690	2286	7195	3186	1601	823	1696	1504	3433	1833	4285	1633	3230	1740	3747	993	3491	4260	895	3415	528	1402	4858	2104	1657	2305	5189	2224	1421	4616	1973	3333	1472	897	3009	2194	1666	1776	8840	2740	16820	7539	4881	3816	30940	15130	902	3654	2279	2082	22730	4860	1907	441	841	26080	2577	3640	1051	743	2872	607	799	1608	4982	3097	1201	1716	2520	11810	3709	5677	720	2651	4389	1344	1713	3974	523	3399	6081	1484	1861	4792	7389	1363	14080	2799	2010	13720	2863	4216	3748	3439	3259	6596	2268	5827	4008	1671	1907	1909	2800	979	11480	866	2927	609	10130	1775	1292	3089	1407	448	691	12180	10130	2654	1254	9950	1805	1316	22840	5011	3057	5098	1301	1025	1389	2596	5199	573	1633	2073	1893	1216	1307	1665	3225	1138	3058	4863	3339	2079	4336	1490	1796	7121	3314	2193	998	9900	6638	7401	1841	1197	9810	1157	2837	2907	3248	9670	1854	1026	919	3511	1463	1367	795	2825	1321	2289	1337	1645	302	5146	8503	1195	1032	1479	11910	7799	4300	4688	7909	2453	1711	1596	1312	1190	1562	1512	381	4137	1424	1437	1479	3476	15400	4499	1561	2181	9670	1328	1828	6607	1651	1033	1616	2103	3238	1746	4599
2020-11-16	528	1320	3151	1186	3124	2057	2413	947	3574	6094	9750	1867	2738	2190	3223	2942	2966	3895	33830	2718	9119	4910	2250	14220	1471	6152	1301	26890	1279	1509	5577	1265	3594	11870	1181	4342	2053	1500	3076	4140	9257	7162	2104	3221	2175	1989	2346	1165	3304	5522	2036	1333	2179	8446	8339	2484	1164	1107	3349	2111	1139	1108	3431	934	17080	7511	1224	1372	5338	1822	2860	1940	1211	7154	1161	11050	3119	1568	8840	6859	572	1305	1409	1746	2731	1478	9083	2790	2009	1029	1525	874	1836	5106	2053	1174	2670	2458	1245	1085	1377	715	2319	7404	3236	1627	846	1739	1536	3531	1860	4329	1663	3293	1780	3850	1008	3553	4353	913	3489	534	1441	5027	2155	1676	2355	5337	2291	1452	4704	2002	3382	1490	912	3081	2237	1698	1803	9210	2777	17210	7627	4979	3831	31570	15390	916	3743	2345	2127	23010	4970	1973	447	854	26480	2636	3789	1094	764	2918	616	811	1641	5098	3163	1223	1753	2564	12020	3815	5807	746	2696	4515	1384	1764	4098	530	3474	6215	1519	1928	4857	7547	1373	14220	2897	2049	14000	2889	4279	3809	3522	3371	6681	2308	5938	4134	1730	1938	1938	2851	995	11700	883	2969	635	10300	1821	1325	3128	1422	454	713	12370	10410	2752	1283	10030	1824	1349	23120	5079	3138	5207	1337	1031	1425	2669	5349	586	1673	2144	1924	1249	1351	1690	3267	1171	3130	4929	3402	2137	4386	1522	1834	7199	3396	2285	1017	10060	6794	7672	1878	1222	9990	1178	2913	3071	3326	9840	1917	1048	941	3650	1474	1386	820	2988	1337	2356	1382	1670	310	5287	8659	1215	1049	1506	12250	7996	4422	4764	8036	2502	1731	1615	1339	1212	1595	1535	392	4184	1467	1459	1496	3546	15730	4578	1599	2241	9760	1361	1863	6756	1697	1045	1631	2156	3284	1789	4660
2020-11-17	537	1337	3241	1202	3184	2080	2452	977	3662	6193	9910	1873	2792	2234	3294	3005	2999	3987	34460	2787	9259	4972	2302	14410	1507	6292	1323	27310	1294	1530	5675	1291	3640	12170	1202	4409	2090	1530	3115	4186	9398	7311	2223	3264	2205	2034	2382	1193	3349	5622	2073	1357	2214	8563	8487	2532	1192	1124	3394	2139	1160	1134	3546	952	17430	7600	1246	1395	5430	1848	2908	1991	1242	7312	1187	11250	3201	1604	9157	7039	583	1333	1434	1778	2839	1492	9365	2813	2036	1041	1552	897	1869	5187	2094	1198	2731	2484	1285	1107	1397	736	2351	7566	3287	1653	878	1782	1569	3602	1889	4374	1693	3352	1820	3923	1024	3616	4431	932	3564	541	1481	5167	2224	1695	2408	5492	2347	1475	4782	2032	3430	1507	927	3139	2267	1730	1831	9570	2814	17590	7692	5051	3846	32080	15650	929	3814	2412	2172	23230	5083	2016	453	867	26810	2696	3927	1138	784	2964	628	822	1674	5206	3231	1245	1790	2607	12220	3885	5904	773	2740	4642	1411	1815	4226	536	3552	6353	1554	1984	4921	7731	1383	14370	2977	2088	14220	2915	4342	3869	3607	3461	6767	2348	6052	4245	1799	1968	1967	2897	1011	11860	901	3011	651	10460	1875	1358	3168	1432	460	736	12570	10680	2894	1311	10110	1843	1382	23400	5147	3220	5328	1360	1037	1467	2729	5502	599	1715	2199	1956	1282	1395	1714	3309	1189	3203	5006	3467	2192	4436	1555	1863	7278	3481	2347	1037	10210	6916	7934	1898	1249	10210	1193	2968	3231	3401	9990	1981	1069	957	3749	1485	1406	837	3120	1354	2404	1427	1697	318	5386	8799	1235	1066	1532	12500	8175	4521	4818	8130	2551	1752	1633	1363	1235	1629	1559	403	4231	1511	1481	1513	3611	15970	4657	1634	2284	9850	1380	1887	6887	1736	1058	1646	2211	3331	1834	4716
2020-11-18	545	1354	3333	1219	3255	2103	2491	1007	3763	6305	10070	1880	2847	2273	3367	3071	3038	4100	35100	2859	9391	5034	2355	14610	1545	6442	1345	27730	1308	1551	5775	1317	3686	12390	1223	4476	2125	1565	3159	4243	9554	7490	2307	3333	2235	2080	2418	1224	3395	5723	2113	1382	2250	8700	8646	2581	1221	1142	3440	2167	1185	1161	3617	970	17800	7697	1269	1418	5524	1874	2955	2042	1273	7472	1213	11450	3280	1640	9486	7202	594	1362	1460	1827	2952	1505	9584	2836	2063	1056	1580	913	1893	5271	2146	1229	2782	2510	1325	1141	1425	746	2384	7738	3337	1686	907	1826	1603	3681	1907	4418	1723	3416	1861	4010	1040	3679	4506	944	3642	548	1521	5325	2283	1715	2450	5619	2404	1497	4850	2061	3479	1525	942	3198	2306	1763	1859	9890	2852	18000	7755	5127	3861	32600	15910	943	3882	2480	2219	23460	5198	2079	459	879	27110	2769	4078	1185	805	3011	638	834	1708	5303	3300	1267	1827	2651	12430	3960	6001	801	2785	4770	1446	1868	4358	542	3631	6494	1589	2031	4986	7898	1393	14510	3058	2128	14450	2940	4403	3930	3694	3555	6855	2388	6167	4367	1848	1999	1996	2940	1026	12050	919	3053	667	10630	1935	1392	3208	1448	466	760	12760	10920	3002	1340	10200	1862	1416	23680	5216	3305	5431	1377	1044	1504	2801	5661	612	1760	2267	1988	1315	1443	1738	3351	1229	3278	5071	3532	2245	4486	1587	1895	7357	3567	2409	1057	10370	7071	8146	1923	1286	10370	1205	3037	3439	3462	10120	2048	1091	981	3875	1496	1426	856	3260	1371	2454	1475	1723	327	5500	8918	1254	1083	1564	12760	8361	4618	4906	8222	2601	1773	1652	1393	1257	1664	1583	414	4278	1557	1503	1531	3667	16200	4734	1660	2331	9940	1400	1907	7035	1777	1070	1662	2268	3378	1881	4768
2020-11-19	553	1371	3425	1236	3313	2127	2530	1038	3843	6393	10230	1886	2903	2294	3440	3123	3070	4199	35750	2933	9507	5097	2408	14790	1584	6562	1368	28150	1323	1572	5877	1344	3732	12830	1244	4545	2157	1591	3189	4295	9672	7606	2366	3380	2266	2125	2454	1242	3440	5825	2135	1407	2287	8821	8770	2630	1249	1161	3486	2195	1204	1188	3682	988	18110	7805	1292	1441	5619	1900	3000	2096	1305	7633	1240	11650	3312	1678	9827	7345	605	1390	1486	1857	3070	1519	9807	2860	2091	1065	1608	925	1920	5355	2188	1246	2827	2537	1357	1151	1447	763	2417	7862	3389	1714	933	1870	1637	3738	1932	4463	1753	3456	1902	4097	1056	3742	4559	955	3721	555	1562	5473	2333	1734	2480	5742	2455	1518	4931	2091	3529	1543	957	3245	2342	1797	1888	10190	2890	18350	7813	5206	3877	33060	16180	957	3924	2550	2265	23640	5317	2154	465	892	27400	2816	4234	1234	827	3059	644	847	1742	5394	3371	1289	1864	2696	12650	4037	6113	831	2830	4901	1480	1921	4495	549	3713	6638	1625	2095	5051	8037	1403	14660	3128	2167	14640	2965	4451	3991	3783	3638	6944	2430	6285	4471	1890	2030	2025	2974	1042	12210	937	3095	688	10790	1971	1427	3248	1460	472	784	12960	11170	3067	1369	10280	1882	1451	23960	5287	3393	5518	1402	1050	1537	2853	5824	625	1786	2311	2021	1349	1487	1763	3394	1254	3353	5187	3597	2292	4537	1621	1924	7437	3656	2473	1078	10530	7161	8362	1948	1316	10510	1226	3098	3671	3520	10270	2118	1113	998	3968	1507	1446	879	3378	1388	2494	1524	1759	335	5597	9030	1274	1100	1582	12960	8512	4718	5015	8324	2652	1794	1670	1423	1273	1700	1607	425	4326	1604	1525	1548	3728	16420	4811	1684	2381	10040	1424	1955	7168	1822	1083	1678	2326	3426	1928	4815

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-13 to 2020-11-19

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-12	494	1254	2798	1121	2910	1964	2257	828	3299	5795	9125	1842	2528	2047	2939	2692	2834	3580	31397	2449	8515	4660	2046	13373	1330	5707	1219	25216	1218	1422	5193	1164	3398	11050	1096	4076	1926	1391	2881	3957	8639	6681	1682	3061	2058	1800	2202	1080	3117	5122	1936	1232	2038	7963	7854	2291	1049	1036	3166	1999	1080	1007	3226	861	15886	7259	1136	1279	4974	1711	2704	1747	1088	6524	1063	10276	2877	1431	7651	6439	530	1195	1307	1646	2328	1429	8033	2695	1901	992	1416	817	1762	4781	1880	1064	2475	2351	1094	1035	1298	653	2186	6753	3036	1547	778	1561	1406	3299	1768	4152	1543	3122	1619	3595	947	3306	4091	854	3198	507	1283	4555	2027	1597	2189	4903	2085	1353	4444	1884	3186	1418	848	2901	2141	1570	1692	7923	2625	15924	7316	4721	3771	29672	14344	861	3517	2073	1941	21999	4524	1808	422	803	25130	2408	3334	925	680	2736	579	764	1510	4763	2901	1136	1600	2388	11142	3425	5496	643	2520	4011	1289	1562	3616	503	3186	5678	1377	1756	4590	7096	1333	13638	2632	1891	13013	2778	4063	3548	3200	3123	6344	2151	5496	3767	1540	1817	1822	2709	931	10973	814	2801	566	9648	1680	1197	2970	1386	431	625	11607	9539	2324	1165	9692	1749	1221	22019	4811	2817	4916	1248	1001	1283	2442	4769	536	1528	1920	1797	1121	1193	1591	3098	1089	2839	4786	3144	1961	4182	1391	1743	6884	3071	2049	940	9436	6355	6880	1775	1116	9512	1139	2699	2564	3116	9231	1674	959	868	3264	1428	1309	759	2470	1271	2208	1210	1609	277	4950	8132	1130	978	1394	11279	7460	4075	4597	7537	2308	1649	1535	1270	1161	1461	1439	346	3994	1300	1370	1426	3341	14566	4241	1494	2071	9398	1269	1774	6294	1552	995	1573	1948	3098	1618	4467
2020-11-13	505	1282	2871	1140	2971	1987	2298	848	3375	5890	9240	1855	2581	2089	3009	2751	2869	3684	32000	2518	8634	4721	2103	13560	1379	5824	1241	25640	1236	1442	5291	1191	3446	11330	1122	4145	1965	1421	2917	4002	8771	6814	1734	3118	2105	1848	2233	1098	3171	5211	1962	1258	2073	8099	7996	2333	1075	1052	3200	2024	1100	1027	3290	881	16170	7399	1156	1304	5063	1740	2759	1794	1120	6684	1089	10380	2938	1467	7903	6537	540	1224	1334	1679	2450	1464	8271	2763	1934	1002	1448	831	1785	4876	1923	1085	2521	2381	1125	1056	1320	666	2220	6890	3071	1578	803	1608	1437	3368	1794	4188	1573	3171	1662	3656	964	3369	4148	869	3273	517	1321	4674	2061	1619	2227	5002	2136	1376	4510	1914	3226	1433	865	2951	2170	1604	1718	8230	2666	16290	7376	4803	3804	30170	14600	875	3568	2141	1994	22210	4613	1860	431	814	25430	2465	3453	962	697	2782	589	775	1545	4858	2969	1157	1635	2427	11320	3519	5595	664	2553	4148	1319	1615	3736	511	3277	5813	1416	1820	4676	7228	1361	13770	2699	1929	13220	2828	4114	3611	3280	3200	6430	2187	5610	3864	1586	1846	1848	2736	949	11150	835	2839	585	9770	1719	1228	3007	1404	439	643	11750	9770	2453	1191	9790	1782	1251	22230	4925	2897	5011	1270	1020	1315	2498	4909	551	1557	1969	1836	1160	1230	1617	3129	1124	2913	4872	3214	1998	4228	1427	1769	6938	3162	2102	962	9580	6465	7071	1804	1160	9660	1156	2759	2719	3176	9360	1723	981	885	3361	1440	1328	775	2576	1295	2245	1245	1640	284	5063	8244	1150	999	1420	11520	7617	4160	4671	7631	2351	1673	1556	1300	1176	1492	1468	353	4034	1339	1391	1443	3395	14770	4317	1524	2115	9475	1292	1815	6427	1609	1006	1602	1995	3135	1665	4512
2020-11-14	511	1306	2953	1158	3005	2007	2338	870	3427	5958	9360	1865	2622	2112	3083	2798	2902	3752	32580	2580	8723	4776	2145	13720	1420	5912	1257	26060	1251	1459	5378	1218	3497	11550	1147	4203	1990	1449	2951	4042	8900	6933	1778	3151	2147	1887	2267	1111	3222	5298	1977	1282	2101	8208	8123	2374	1096	1066	3227	2050	1121	1042	3349	901	16470	7531	1172	1329	5135	1764	2807	1839	1148	6853	1109	10500	2993	1500	8163	6600	550	1257	1360	1708	2567	1488	8508	2830	1962	1011	1472	844	1808	4953	1961	1105	2553	2407	1153	1067	1339	674	2240	7016	3112	1608	828	1651	1472	3424	1818	4225	1605	3213	1699	3693	980	3429	4188	884	3340	525	1360	4763	2098	1636	2268	5084	2192	1396	4573	1944	3267	1450	880	2999	2192	1631	1743	8540	2700	16600	7431	4844	3829	30550	14840	889	3605	2203	2045	22350	4694	1900	437	824	25660	2515	3549	998	715	2819	599	786	1575	4949	3028	1180	1663	2463	11490	3603	5678	688	2592	4273	1342	1672	3846	517	3370	5925	1450	1866	4757	7358	1379	13900	2758	1968	13420	2871	4152	3656	3362	3271	6519	2221	5714	3955	1631	1878	1875	2762	967	11260	851	2875	597	9870	1746	1254	3038	1414	446	659	11870	9950	2541	1215	9880	1811	1278	22480	5045	2962	5089	1291	1035	1339	2548	5058	564	1583	2010	1864	1192	1260	1643	3161	1152	2969	4955	3282	2033	4265	1463	1798	6985	3254	2141	981	9710	6567	7239	1834	1183	9800	1174	2798	2832	3238	9470	1767	998	895	3441	1449	1344	792	2669	1317	2279	1283	1671	292	5130	8326	1169	1019	1440	11670	7760	4227	4735	7717	2399	1696	1575	1315	1188	1524	1491	363	4073	1380	1411	1455	3438	14900	4387	1544	2155	9537	1312	1836	6538	1644	1016	1634	2048	3173	1714	4552
2020-11-15	518	1330	3030	1175	3043	2027	2378	894	3461	6047	9490	1875	2664	2143	3159	2844	2935	3822	33160	2643	8815	4830	2199	13870	1461	6012	1278	26490	1267	1477	5463	1246	3542	11760	1171	4261	2022	1475	2985	4079	9030	7060	1824	3186	2191	1926	2294	1122	3273	5388	1994	1306	2129	8307	8255	2418	1120	1080	3259	2076	1144	1062	3413	920	16760	7660	1189	1350	5208	1789	2848	1883	1176	7025	1128	10600	3047	1533	8427	6697	560	1290	1385	1739	2689	1516	8722	2901	1989	1018	1495	861	1830	5029	2000	1122	2589	2433	1182	1076	1358	686	2269	7144	3152	1638	855	1690	1502	3475	1843	4264	1637	3255	1733	3737	996	3492	4231	900	3412	533	1399	4852	2126	1654	2308	5165	2246	1414	4638	1974	3307	1467	894	3047	2216	1657	1767	8840	2734	16880	7484	4892	3853	30930	15060	899	3636	2268	2096	22500	4773	1942	444	835	25870	2559	3643	1033	733	2858	608	796	1603	5035	3088	1203	1696	2495	11660	3685	5757	711	2632	4399	1366	1730	3960	522	3465	6036	1486	1917	4842	7486	1398	14030	2812	2007	13610	2915	4188	3704	3444	3344	6611	2256	5817	4048	1672	1910	1901	2794	984	11380	866	2912	609	9980	1780	1284	3069	1427	454	674	12000	10130	2646	1239	9970	1843	1307	22730	5166	3022	5171	1311	1049	1366	2595	5209	576	1613	2052	1893	1229	1294	1668	3197	1182	3030	5038	3349	2064	4305	1496	1817	7041	3349	2178	999	9850	6672	7417	1855	1214	9940	1190	2839	2958	3304	9580	1812	1017	907	3524	1459	1361	808	2759	1340	2312	1323	1708	300	5196	8413	1186	1035	1463	11830	7907	4302	4807	7807	2449	1719	1595	1330	1200	1556	1515	372	4114	1422	1430	1468	3478	15050	4445	1566	2194	9604	1327	1865	6651	1663	1026	1665	2100	3211	1764	4589
2020-11-16	526	1355	3138	1201	3105	2048	2422	917	3555	6173	9640	1888	2709	2182	3235	2915	2973	3928	33810	2710	8993	4885	2268	14100	1510	6158	1304	26920	1287	1497	5577	1273	3621	12130	1198	4322	2070	1517	3034	4142	9203	7204	1878	3253	2249	1965	2334	1141	3324	5487	2025	1333	2162	8489	8414	2464	1149	1094	3318	2102	1170	1081	3487	940	17090	7816	1214	1378	5286	1821	2902	1935	1204	7216	1155	10840	3114	1569	8774	6857	570	1327	1418	1773	2828	1556	8999	2980	2017	1039	1528	881	1854	5105	2046	1152	2663	2460	1213	1097	1381	710	2309	7297	3201	1671	884	1742	1537	3542	1871	4306	1669	3301	1780	3804	1012	3570	4306	917	3486	540	1441	5014	2184	1671	2357	5278	2314	1439	4718	2004	3359	1486	911	3107	2247	1688	1800	9230	2768	17310	7552	4991	3885	31570	15380	913	3706	2340	2148	22720	4856	2013	452	851	26260	2616	3785	1072	751	2907	618	807	1637	5143	3154	1227	1731	2545	11830	3788	5885	735	2680	4551	1402	1789	4083	532	3568	6182	1524	2002	4931	7626	1423	14170	2909	2047	13860	2962	4247	3772	3531	3447	6707	2293	5920	4150	1730	1952	1928	2844	1002	11610	882	2948	632	10190	1819	1318	3104	1447	462	691	12220	10400	2769	1268	10070	1882	1337	23000	5290	3095	5276	1335	1065	1396	2666	5365	590	1643	2116	1925	1278	1333	1696	3240	1227	3111	5130	3424	2111	4360	1543	1855	7132	3451	2268	1020	10010	6801	7635	1898	1242	10110	1219	2898	3089	3378	9740	1869	1042	922	3648	1469	1379	829	2877	1366	2389	1367	1760	309	5352	8559	1206	1055	1488	12200	8090	4433	4894	7920	2502	1746	1616	1352	1218	1589	1545	384	4161	1466	1459	1488	3540	15370	4536	1599	2237	9718	1358	1907	6796	1712	1039	1702	2160	3254	1814	4640
2020-11-17	534	1379	3242	1233	3163	2068	2468	941	3642	6270	9790	1898	2754	2223	3313	2982	3008	4020	34450	2777	9141	4940	2336	14300	1555	6283	1327	27350	1305	1515	5683	1302	3704	12540	1225	4389	2106	1551	3077	4192	9358	7338	1931	3300	2302	2005	2375	1161	3375	5581	2057	1361	2200	8619	8565	2511	1178	1109	3361	2128	1194	1099	3569	960	17430	7949	1232	1407	5364	1848	2954	1983	1234	7424	1183	11080	3173	1605	9092	6998	580	1360	1444	1805	2972	1592	9252	3056	2045	1052	1560	900	1878	5198	2089	1170	2725	2486	1244	1116	1401	728	2338	7441	3251	1704	917	1786	1571	3605	1897	4348	1702	3347	1820	3855	1029	3641	4367	935	3559	548	1485	5149	2239	1688	2406	5391	2374	1459	4792	2035	3407	1504	927	3158	2273	1714	1831	9620	2802	17760	7613	5075	3910	32090	15670	926	3762	2406	2201	22910	4945	2067	459	867	26600	2673	3915	1111	769	2953	629	817	1671	5238	3217	1250	1766	2594	11990	3889	5994	760	2728	4690	1432	1849	4211	540	3674	6311	1563	2062	5016	7767	1443	14310	2982	2087	14090	3002	4310	3833	3620	3544	6808	2331	6025	4249	1798	1986	1956	2883	1020	11790	898	2985	645	10380	1856	1348	3138	1463	468	707	12420	10660	2886	1297	10160	1922	1367	23290	5417	3171	5390	1357	1081	1425	2752	5525	603	1674	2166	1954	1317	1373	1724	3280	1256	3201	5224	3501	2152	4403	1581	1880	7217	3552	2339	1040	10180	6918	7850	1930	1278	10300	1239	2947	3229	3447	9900	1934	1061	936	3755	1479	1397	847	2976	1386	2434	1410	1817	320	5459	8682	1225	1071	1511	12450	8261	4525	4973	8026	2555	1769	1636	1370	1237	1622	1572	393	4206	1510	1481	1503	3611	15640	4618	1631	2279	9806	1380	1932	6941	1755	1053	1735	2219	3300	1867	4690
2020-11-18	542	1405	3351	1258	3227	2089	2512	966	3736	6361	9950	1909	2802	2267	3393	3061	3045	4126	35100	2844	9300	4996	2388	14520	1599	6417	1350	27790	1329	1536	5791	1331	3759	12930	1251	4452	2142	1583	3122	4240	9521	7487	1981	3346	2360	2045	2413	1181	3427	5682	2083	1389	2237	8742	8719	2560	1204	1123	3398	2155	1221	1114	3644	980	17750	8095	1254	1432	5445	1874	2999	2036	1263	7617	1207	11290	3232	1641	9443	7143	591	1396	1475	1845	3119	1630	9507	3134	2074	1068	1594	918	1901	5282	2132	1189	2776	2513	1276	1136	1425	739	2377	7589	3305	1738	949	1832	1603	3668	1925	4387	1736	3395	1860	3909	1046	3712	4428	953	3630	556	1530	5293	2281	1706	2451	5491	2433	1482	4863	2065	3457	1521	944	3213	2303	1738	1866	10030	2837	18200	7672	5140	3939	32610	15960	941	3815	2480	2256	23070	5030	2129	465	881	26940	2736	4055	1149	787	2999	639	827	1705	5338	3283	1275	1798	2644	12170	3997	6103	786	2772	4831	1465	1912	4338	547	3783	6446	1602	2123	5107	7911	1463	14460	3052	2128	14340	3043	4375	3895	3713	3628	6905	2368	6132	4357	1856	2019	1983	2921	1039	11990	915	3023	659	10550	1897	1376	3173	1487	474	724	12630	10920	3002	1326	10240	1960	1398	23590	5549	3239	5480	1378	1095	1456	2823	5692	617	1705	2224	1985	1347	1414	1752	3319	1306	3277	5315	3576	2189	4458	1617	1902	7306	3667	2405	1060	10340	7049	8053	1966	1332	10450	1256	3001	3381	3519	10050	1988	1084	952	3873	1489	1413	866	3086	1411	2476	1454	1870	329	5588	8798	1243	1087	1537	12690	8424	4620	5070	8142	2607	1796	1656	1388	1256	1657	1601	404	4249	1557	1505	1519	3665	15910	4697	1658	2322	9905	1401	1955	7089	1800	1066	1772	2274	3343	1921	4738
2020-11-19	550	1431	3446	1282	3279	2110	2557	992	3823	6437	10110	1917	2845	2296	3474	3124	3080	4224	35750	2914	9445	5053	2454	14720	1646	6549	1375	28240	1351	1554	5900	1361	3812	13350	1279	4517	2180	1614	3164	4298	9682	7614	2026	3381	2418	2086	2452	1197	3479	5773	2102	1416	2271	8865	8852	2606	1233	1138	3435	2183	1249	1130	3720	1001	18070	8243	1274	1455	5519	1904	3047	2093	1294	7811	1231	11450	3293	1678	9807	7270	601	1432	1505	1873	3274	1668	9761	3214	2103	1079	1631	933	1925	5369	2176	1209	2821	2540	1308	1144	1446	758	2405	7736	3349	1773	980	1881	1639	3728	1953	4427	1770	3440	1901	3958	1064	3788	4471	970	3706	564	1575	5435	2317	1724	2497	5597	2500	1501	4941	2097	3510	1538	961	3264	2329	1763	1902	10420	2872	18640	7734	5208	3962	33120	16250	954	3857	2553	2311	23250	5116	2194	470	897	27270	2795	4179	1191	807	3044	649	837	1738	5412	3351	1299	1832	2697	12340	4098	6222	813	2821	4978	1495	1977	4469	556	3901	6575	1641	2190	5198	8054	1484	14600	3113	2170	14590	3087	4431	3945	3805	3712	7004	2407	6240	4455	1914	2055	2011	2956	1057	12190	932	3061	675	10710	1931	1408	3205	1502	482	740	12820	11170	3123	1354	10340	1998	1430	23860	5684	3308	5575	1401	1116	1486	2891	5864	632	1732	2273	2017	1380	1455	1781	3353	1347	3353	5417	3653	2232	4500	1659	1925	7366	3776	2487	1081	10490	7162	8263	2003	1374	10600	1281	3051	3537	3587	10210	2054	1100	968	3983	1500	1431	887	3197	1437	2518	1499	1928	337	5687	8913	1262	1104	1561	12920	8582	4709	5150	8266	2662	1824	1676	1402	1271	1692	1625	417	4288	1604	1531	1533	3720	16180	4783	1685	2366	9983	1426	1997	7231	1845	1079	1807	2339	3384	1978	4788

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-12