COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-15 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-15

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd) -- --11-01 --10-21 --11-0410-31 --11-0410-1110-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0210-1910-0811-0310-1911-0311-04 --10-29 --10-15 -- --11-0411-04 -- -- -- --10-0410-0110-25 --11-04 --11-01 --10-25 --11-0410-11 -- --10-2511-04 --10-2211-0411-0410-1110-0711-01 --11-02 -- -- -- --11-0411-04 -- -- --11-0211-0411-0210-1911-0411-0411-02 --09-30 --11-0411-0311-0311-0411-0211-0211-03 --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1209-27 -- -- -- --10-1111-0310-08 --11-03 --11-02 --11-0109-2710-2510-17 --10-18 --11-01 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-02 --11-02 -- --11-0310-1111-0211-01 --10-11 --11-0111-0210-1111-0109-29 --10-0709-2711-01 --11-0411-03 --09-2911-03 -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- --03-27 -- -- --11-0410-21 -- --09-26 -- -- --10-1810-2511-03 -- -- --11-0411-03 -- --11-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-2411-03 -- -- -- --10-1311-04 -- --11-0211-0110-1110-11 --10-18 --10-10 --10-19 -- --10-08 -- --11-0210-1811-0411-03 --10-07 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- --11-0411-0111-04 -- --11-03 -- -- --11-0310-12 -- -- -- -- --11-0411-02 --10-0711-02 -- --10-1810-1211-03 --11-0411-04 --11-04 -- --10-18 --11-0210-2511-0110-05 -- --11-04 -- -- --11-01 -- --10-22 -- -- --10-29 --11-04 --10-2010-2611-0310-21 -- --11-02 --11-0210-0511-0411-0110-1310-2310-18 -- --11-0410-0411-04 --11-02 --10-2211-02 --10-1111-0310-07
Peak daily increment 89 62 42 21 97 187 28 70 162 98 57 231 53 139 440 51 73 319 57 70 158 54 52 39 54 128 34 130 53 24 17 61 31 23 76 29 82 30 183 26 243 59 39 279 16 30 46 133 40 244 86 35 30 53 75 40 133 70 25 30 35 72 31 55 60 67 43 55 33 58 19 19 34 31 330 45 375 152 88 542 266 56 66 528 87 609 60 11 86 23 391 50 152 32 96 146 93 612 255 57 100 41 45 41 40 41 194 62 196 67 21 234 244 99 190 435 124 29 65 159 46 27 66 62 35 119 93 178 122 221 38 164 59 172 19 14 96 22 116 49 136 250 101 131 58 26 22 29 8 94 43 21 23 61 313 41 137 24 141 14 32 64 49 132
Days since peak 14 25 11 15 11 35 41 13 27 38 12 27 12 11 17 31 11 11 42 45 21 11 14 21 11 35 21 11 24 11 11 35 39 14 13 11 11 13 11 13 27 11 11 13 46 11 12 12 11 13 13 12 26 34 49 35 12 38 12 13 14 49 21 29 28 14 13 13 12 35 13 14 35 14 13 35 14 47 39 49 14 11 12 47 12 54 20 233 11 25 50 28 21 12 11 12 13 46 22 12 33 11 13 14 35 35 28 36 27 38 13 28 11 12 39 47 14 11 14 11 12 12 34 11 13 39 13 28 34 12 11 11 11 28 13 21 14 41 11 14 24 17 11 26 20 12 25 13 13 41 11 14 33 23 28 11 42 11 13 24 13 35 12 39
Last total 501 1279 2925 1121 3010 1987 2224 836 3473 5831 9414 1858 2668 2091 3058 3187 2908 3774 33819 2561 8729 4735 2113 13677 1409 6344 1260 25952 1214 1448 5319 1229 3679 13115 1144 4191 1971 1463 3018 4050 8768 6947 1646 3076 2190 1935 2277 1147 3116 5680 1996 1303 2012 7904 8036 2390 1051 967 3253 1970 1081 1039 3255 879 16886 7342 1131 1307 5048 1664 2791 1912 1090 6713 1057 10497 2817 1516 8253 6668 515 1211 1285 1694 2512 1407 8284 2872 1864 1015 1473 836 1684 4963 1947 1069 2528 2349 1158 1044 1362 641 2183 6921 3062 1695 820 1642 1431 3417 1799 4268 1509 3266 1649 3620 975 3202 4090 851 3358 529 1382 4928 2110 1550 2116 5139 2147 1337 4548 1808 3294 1425 848 3025 2230 1614 1733 8526 2686 16525 7414 4784 3842 32366 15278 814 3609 2171 2369 22817 4717 1909 419 806 28741 2496 3647 920 653 2747 555 717 1533 4932 3008 1109 1637 2474 14308 3634 5662 654 2523 4250 1261 1642 3823 492 3333 5818 1461 1868 4730 7181 1356 15787 2741 2049 13409 2971 4214 3630 3496 3749 6548 2269 5745 3937 1640 1824 1808 2540 843 11288 818 2873 592 9852 1705 1345 2988 1406 410 607 12345 10140 2448 1248 9877 1792 1223 23100 4913 2970 5035 1266 1027 1216 2527 5159 518 1568 1907 1800 1138 1178 1560 3144 1139 2988 4920 3446 2054 4218 1442 1668 7077 3182 2151 980 9541 6537 7384 1761 1133 9841 1106 2742 2835 3321 9543 1792 959 828 3442 1451 1338 778 2703 1243 2328 1235 1694 285 5369 8063 1073 966 1356 11724 7780 4204 4665 7536 2689 1685 1462 1264 1180 1495 1459 327 4286 1344 1311 1382 3505 14905 4147 1490 2045 9442 1259 1769 6546 1646 978 1625 1983 3065 1666 5247
Last daily increment 4 15 43 14 22 16 26 22 21 36 87 11 42 41 41 48 33 43 280 33 49 25 15 109 25 62 10 241 9 11 35 11 19 168 13 47 23 16 24 26 64 101 14 18 33 25 39 9 21 48 17 22 14 49 71 27 7 7 30 7 9 8 27 15 160 73 9 7 46 13 42 24 6 68 12 63 29 17 133 68 6 30 17 31 33 13 101 41 13 10 18 4 20 56 13 6 27 22 24 3 13 15 23 53 25 23 12 20 8 34 12 39 20 29 26 26 19 39 32 11 47 6 28 47 17 11 20 62 39 12 43 5 43 14 0 13 17 22 19 142 27 237 20 33 16 219 156 4 20 31 29 88 36 26 3 3 148 22 54 12 11 31 1 5 22 49 58 5 12 21 117 45 71 11 27 74 12 33 101 6 40 66 16 21 35 92 8 67 38 23 96 20 13 42 38 45 38 18 51 85 21 12 16 12 1 71 8 27 11 81 17 26 27 15 4 6 80 102 33 12 44 29 9 147 48 27 40 14 12 8 25 93 4 13 23 8 15 22 18 20 19 40 62 46 18 22 10 15 44 44 29 13 61 77 123 10 23 89 13 29 56 22 49 31 13 5 50 6 11 15 36 9 21 18 25 2 55 41 15 15 14 142 93 31 30 44 29 16 21 20 14 19 14 3 23 28 8 6 28 95 70 21 17 56 13 13 65 22 2 24 20 14 21 41
Last week 53 145 423 147 303 129 215 102 417 541 732 94 343 223 397 363 239 568 3381 351 594 325 215 987 258 712 132 2203 128 131 542 152 341 1762 149 445 223 168 199 283 637 817 210 272 282 322 221 131 264 519 217 169 171 610 774 252 131 91 249 133 98 105 393 118 1611 817 124 126 512 151 305 282 153 768 140 817 314 206 1396 720 47 169 152 236 622 138 1153 416 174 102 138 79 163 602 210 138 286 182 166 110 149 84 193 607 217 213 149 256 127 416 139 234 146 315 247 318 107 293 382 79 427 67 237 765 292 135 192 589 282 128 414 141 266 87 83 297 179 174 165 1510 278 1970 293 397 170 2605 1412 73 304 319 334 992 500 326 45 63 1574 299 699 141 94 291 48 44 192 504 420 95 210 235 1063 475 574 121 193 613 157 282 669 51 510 697 203 305 469 754 146 672 377 231 972 258 329 336 443 513 412 205 677 536 244 155 141 182 81 849 113 219 98 758 238 172 218 113 41 93 858 1285 381 168 566 209 182 1218 568 424 529 117 118 132 327 774 72 147 237 181 225 195 132 213 201 417 491 448 259 295 167 180 394 460 319 132 723 695 1123 148 158 874 105 305 806 350 671 271 98 87 464 72 108 116 547 133 277 196 220 51 669 585 105 97 138 1211 897 457 475 424 257 124 124 182 113 137 152 33 234 203 89 75 326 1003 521 211 224 440 121 180 773 192 64 154 256 188 205 294
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 95 56 40 73 20 75 75 68 27
Low between peaks 27 2 0 6 16 7 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-16 to 2020-11-22

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-15 501 1279 2925 1121 3010 1987 2224 836 3473 5831 9414 1858 2668 2091 3058 3187 2908 3774 33819 2561 8729 4735 2113 13677 1409 6344 1260 25952 1214 1448 5319 1229 3679 13115 1144 4191 1971 1463 3018 4050 8768 6947 1646 3076 2190 1935 2277 1147 3116 5680 1996 1303 2012 7904 8036 2390 1051 967 3253 1970 1081 1039 3255 879 16886 7342 1131 1307 5048 1664 2791 1912 1090 6713 1057 10497 2817 1516 8253 6668 515 1211 1285 1694 2512 1407 8284 2872 1864 1015 1473 836 1684 4963 1947 1069 2528 2349 1158 1044 1362 641 2183 6921 3062 1695 820 1642 1431 3417 1799 4268 1509 3266 1649 3620 975 3202 4090 851 3358 529 1382 4928 2110 1550 2116 5139 2147 1337 4548 1808 3294 1425 848 3025 2230 1614 1733 8526 2686 16525 7414 4784 3842 32366 15278 814 3609 2171 2369 22817 4717 1909 419 806 28741 2496 3647 920 653 2747 555 717 1533 4932 3008 1109 1637 2474 14308 3634 5662 654 2523 4250 1261 1642 3823 492 3333 5818 1461 1868 4730 7181 1356 15787 2741 2049 13409 2971 4214 3630 3496 3749 6548 2269 5745 3937 1640 1824 1808 2540 843 11288 818 2873 592 9852 1705 1345 2988 1406 410 607 12345 10140 2448 1248 9877 1792 1223 23100 4913 2970 5035 1266 1027 1216 2527 5159 518 1568 1907 1800 1138 1178 1560 3144 1139 2988 4920 3446 2054 4218 1442 1668 7077 3182 2151 980 9541 6537 7384 1761 1133 9841 1106 2742 2835 3321 9543 1792 959 828 3442 1451 1338 778 2703 1243 2328 1235 1694 285 5369 8063 1073 966 1356 11724 7780 4204 4665 7536 2689 1685 1462 1264 1180 1495 1459 327 4286 1344 1311 1382 3505 14905 4147 1490 2045 9442 1259 1769 6546 1646 978 1625 1983 3065 1666 5247
2020-11-16 505 1304 2993 1157 3093 2019 2261 852 3534 5909 9700 1864 2668 2136 3125 3340 2930 3892 34320 2589 9005 4788 2213 14010 1472 6509 1281 26560 1251 1472 5395 1253 3766 13470 1200 4251 2005 1498 3105 4107 9055 7083 1675 3131 2256 1993 2313 1170 3159 5772 2025 1326 2057 8105 8160 2462 1073 980 3294 1994 1117 1069 3307 898 17330 7484 1164 1341 5084 1686 2836 1921 1097 6965 1087 10890 2886 1545 8559 6745 517 1247 1311 1694 2544 1433 8378 2909 1887 1030 1498 858 1709 5051 1980 1127 2595 2374 1184 1078 1369 653 2212 7102 3170 1725 839 1690 1455 3469 1825 4341 1536 3315 1696 3668 994 3311 4146 865 3407 547 1419 5087 2132 1562 2181 5218 2190 1356 4625 1815 3339 1452 848 3070 2256 1645 1758 8950 2723 16870 7561 4870 3863 33080 15450 825 3655 2195 2421 23230 4791 1937 430 830 29320 2577 3787 941 667 2793 564 729 1589 5077 3078 1149 1671 2509 14460 3709 5795 677 2604 4474 1283 1751 3924 492 3435 5920 1484 1974 4767 7299 1376 15910 2858 2087 13860 3008 4260 3724 3551 3836 6713 2310 5839 4124 1675 1840 1834 2597 857 11610 841 2904 605 10160 1758 1369 3017 1422 418 616 12730 10200 2499 1272 10030 1833 1275 23350 5011 3039 5121 1287 1042 1219 2618 5248 526 1591 1943 1820 1138 1207 1584 3191 1165 3089 5007 3513 2115 4287 1471 1707 7147 3241 2241 997 9840 6662 7548 1839 1159 10000 1109 2784 3143 3372 9830 1818 975 841 3519 1460 1355 796 2769 1276 2369 1265 1731 296 5510 8268 1096 973 1382 12100 7945 4276 4729 7565 2786 1723 1483 1287 1198 1535 1484 341 4319 1374 1330 1395 3582 15470 4258 1534 2080 9607 1281 1795 6650 1677 990 1653 2079 3101 1700 5297
2020-11-17 514 1328 3060 1198 3149 2050 2298 867 3598 5990 9840 1871 2729 2179 3192 3435 2964 3995 35010 2617 9124 4843 2263 14180 1510 6663 1301 26990 1278 1496 5470 1282 3838 13830 1249 4311 2039 1530 3138 4154 9183 7221 1704 3172 2308 2051 2349 1190 3204 5865 2062 1358 2088 8228 8287 2515 1095 993 3335 2018 1139 1099 3359 917 17680 7630 1189 1369 5175 1709 2882 1945 1105 7120 1116 11060 2954 1574 8797 6846 519 1282 1337 1709 2576 1458 8475 2947 1910 1046 1523 880 1735 5140 2015 1157 2654 2400 1209 1106 1377 665 2242 7231 3205 1755 858 1737 1479 3520 1853 4381 1564 3373 1743 3717 1012 3374 4202 879 3458 563 1456 5231 2193 1575 2233 5337 2231 1376 4699 1824 3383 1472 852 3116 2280 1676 1784 9250 2761 17230 7621 4938 3884 33580 15700 835 3710 2221 2473 23430 4865 1974 440 845 29600 2641 3892 962 680 2840 572 741 1636 5203 3148 1170 1707 2545 14620 3785 5915 700 2642 4584 1305 1815 4067 498 3537 6018 1507 2032 4806 7420 1397 16030 2951 2126 14060 3045 4314 3790 3607 3928 6814 2346 5936 4244 1709 1855 1860 2639 871 11760 863 2934 619 10310 1811 1393 3043 1438 425 625 12880 10360 2529 1296 10120 1872 1317 23440 5115 3127 5247 1307 1058 1233 2679 5337 534 1615 1977 1842 1171 1236 1608 3236 1191 3192 5101 3581 2175 4339 1500 1745 7218 3323 2282 1015 9990 6781 7708 1874 1185 10210 1122 2824 3406 3425 9970 1864 991 859 3598 1469 1372 814 2837 1309 2403 1296 1767 307 5632 8391 1117 979 1402 12360 8129 4346 4796 7595 2842 1742 1503 1328 1216 1567 1509 349 4351 1403 1348 1409 3650 15660 4354 1582 2115 9673 1302 1823 6800 1709 1002 1681 2139 3139 1733 5348
2020-11-18 522 1351 3126 1230 3213 2083 2333 882 3658 6070 9970 1878 2784 2219 3259 3532 3008 4098 35630 2647 9235 4896 2303 14370 1568 6801 1321 27390 1309 1519 5546 1315 3908 14140 1291 4372 2071 1564 3177 4208 9326 7361 1733 3232 2377 2111 2385 1210 3246 5956 2102 1388 2126 8342 8412 2563 1116 1005 3375 2042 1164 1129 3410 935 18020 7777 1216 1393 5268 1731 2927 1982 1113 7277 1140 11230 3019 1603 9034 6935 522 1316 1362 1734 2611 1484 8574 2985 1932 1063 1547 895 1761 5230 2047 1205 2696 2424 1234 1147 1385 677 2270 7367 3252 1785 877 1786 1502 3570 1880 4417 1590 3436 1791 3765 1031 3428 4256 892 3509 580 1493 5391 2249 1588 2270 5429 2272 1394 4764 1832 3427 1485 857 3162 2317 1708 1810 9500 2798 17620 7670 5008 3904 34070 15950 845 3764 2249 2523 23630 4938 2026 450 854 29890 2709 4008 982 694 2887 580 753 1688 5318 3219 1196 1743 2581 14770 3861 6040 723 2674 4702 1327 1871 4184 498 3620 6118 1532 2092 4846 7540 1418 16150 3040 2166 14270 3082 4360 3871 3662 4021 6881 2383 6033 4371 1743 1870 1886 2676 885 11930 885 2965 633 10440 1865 1416 3070 1454 433 633 13050 10500 2569 1320 10210 1911 1362 23530 5216 3202 5349 1327 1073 1245 2753 5422 543 1637 2011 1863 1192 1268 1632 3282 1217 3266 5190 3648 2236 4388 1527 1781 7288 3407 2331 1032 10120 6931 7868 1914 1212 10370 1128 2865 3707 3478 10090 1906 1007 874 3698 1478 1388 832 2902 1342 2442 1326 1805 318 5761 8497 1138 984 1425 12600 8306 4415 4861 7626 2884 1769 1523 1365 1234 1592 1533 354 4384 1432 1366 1423 3705 15850 4451 1611 2150 9746 1323 1849 6960 1741 1013 1709 2199 3175 1766 5397
2020-11-19 533 1375 3193 1255 3269 2116 2370 897 3721 6152 10090 1885 2843 2245 3326 3583 3042 4196 36170 2676 9351 4951 2345 14530 1613 6935 1341 27800 1332 1543 5624 1337 3957 14490 1332 4433 2105 1592 3204 4259 9432 7503 1762 3277 2423 2172 2420 1236 3290 6048 2126 1415 2155 8456 8540 2600 1137 1018 3416 2066 1184 1160 3461 953 18300 7926 1240 1414 5342 1753 2971 2018 1122 7416 1158 11360 3066 1633 9268 7031 525 1350 1387 1746 2647 1510 8675 3024 1954 1077 1572 908 1787 5321 2080 1230 2740 2449 1259 1167 1393 689 2300 7477 3286 1815 896 1835 1527 3619 1908 4453 1618 3477 1839 3814 1050 3479 4312 906 3562 597 1531 5542 2296 1601 2297 5534 2313 1413 4849 1841 3471 1496 876 3209 2350 1740 1835 9760 2835 17970 7724 5085 3925 34510 16180 856 3808 2277 2575 23840 5011 2088 459 865 30190 2748 4116 1003 707 2935 588 764 1733 5405 3291 1216 1779 2617 14930 3938 6147 748 2703 4809 1348 1923 4310 502 3706 6216 1557 2147 4886 7662 1439 16270 3123 2207 14440 3119 4409 3917 3718 4116 6956 2414 6131 4472 1777 1884 1912 2705 900 12090 908 2996 646 10560 1920 1440 3096 1471 440 642 13210 10650 2598 1344 10300 1950 1405 23620 5321 3278 5436 1346 1089 1263 2803 5509 551 1660 2046 1886 1202 1301 1656 3328 1244 3332 5304 3716 2298 4447 1555 1816 7358 3489 2375 1049 10250 7025 8029 1946 1238 10510 1137 2906 4080 3530 10220 1942 1023 892 3779 1487 1404 851 2970 1374 2456 1357 1841 329 5868 8596 1159 993 1441 12790 8447 4483 4929 7656 2930 1795 1543 1405 1252 1616 1557 362 4417 1462 1385 1437 3764 16040 4548 1643 2185 9819 1344 1876 7098 1773 1024 1736 2259 3213 1799 5447
2020-11-20 541 1398 3260 1282 3322 2149 2407 913 3784 6234 10220 1892 2888 2285 3394 3636 3087 4292 36720 2705 9456 5006 2391 14710 1658 7057 1361 28200 1359 1566 5701 1365 4011 14800 1380 4495 2138 1617 3234 4307 9538 7648 1791 3320 2470 2235 2456 1263 3334 6141 2161 1452 2186 8562 8668 2645 1159 1031 3458 2090 1196 1191 3513 972 18570 8079 1265 1432 5421 1776 3017 2055 1130 7552 1174 11500 3111 1663 9513 7127 528 1385 1412 1761 2683 1535 8776 3063 1977 1095 1597 917 1814 5414 2114 1260 2790 2474 1284 1189 1401 701 2329 7564 3328 1846 915 1886 1551 3667 1936 4489 1645 3534 1889 3864 1069 3533 4367 920 3616 614 1569 5709 2335 1614 2334 5628 2353 1432 4918 1849 3515 1508 877 3256 2372 1773 1860 10030 2873 18280 7772 5155 3946 34980 16440 866 3866 2306 2626 24030 5085 2132 468 880 30390 2802 4231 1023 721 2984 597 776 1784 5497 3363 1229 1816 2654 15080 4015 6241 773 2733 4892 1370 2000 4429 505 3794 6316 1582 2189 4927 7787 1460 16390 3205 2248 14600 3156 4474 3981 3774 4214 7015 2449 6229 4563 1810 1898 1938 2733 915 12260 931 3027 660 10670 1976 1464 3121 1487 448 651 13370 10800 2627 1368 10390 1988 1450 23760 5441 3334 5508 1366 1105 1274 2864 5597 560 1684 2080 1908 1224 1327 1680 3374 1271 3410 5351 3784 2361 4492 1584 1851 7429 3578 2401 1066 10360 7142 8191 1982 1264 10650 1145 2947 4457 3584 10330 1983 1039 906 3867 1496 1421 870 3039 1408 2482 1388 1878 340 5982 8701 1180 1000 1461 13000 8585 4552 4997 7686 2970 1814 1563 1450 1270 1637 1581 368 4449 1491 1403 1451 3820 16230 4646 1684 2220 9902 1365 1903 7218 1805 1035 1764 2320 3251 1833 5497
2020-11-21 547 1422 3327 1306 3352 2182 2444 928 3847 6317 10300 1899 2929 2298 3462 3698 3120 4339 37160 2735 9518 5062 2422 14820 1687 7129 1381 28450 1378 1590 5779 1383 4052 15040 1416 4558 2172 1644 3253 4344 9609 7796 1821 3348 2488 2300 2491 1277 3378 6234 2177 1480 2207 8635 8798 2674 1181 1044 3499 2114 1206 1223 3565 991 18760 8235 1289 1455 5488 1799 3062 2058 1139 7662 1190 11570 3156 1693 9698 7200 531 1420 1438 1772 2720 1562 8879 3102 1999 1116 1622 927 1841 5509 2148 1275 2817 2499 1309 1211 1409 713 2359 7642 3343 1877 934 1939 1576 3714 1965 4515 1673 3560 1940 3913 1089 3576 4423 934 3671 632 1607 5837 2383 1627 2357 5691 2394 1452 4965 1858 3559 1524 880 3304 2392 1807 1886 10210 2911 18560 7802 5193 3967 35310 16620 876 3899 2336 2679 24170 5160 2167 478 888 30550 2849 4323 1044 734 3034 605 788 1816 5579 3435 1239 1854 2691 15240 4094 6312 800 2762 4967 1392 2035 4508 506 3850 6416 1608 2223 4968 7914 1481 16510 3274 2290 14720 3193 4520 4015 3831 4313 7065 2482 6329 4626 1844 1912 1964 2744 930 12340 955 3058 674 10770 2034 1488 3147 1503 455 660 13430 10890 2645 1393 10430 2027 1496 23780 5504 3373 5573 1386 1120 1275 2915 5686 569 1708 2115 1931 1233 1347 1704 3420 1299 3460 5402 3854 2425 4517 1612 1886 7500 3636 2410 1084 10440 7214 8354 2006 1291 10740 1147 2988 4722 3638 10400 2007 1055 915 3920 1505 1438 890 3109 1442 2495 1421 1916 351 6040 8767 1201 1000 1467 13160 8694 4621 5065 7716 3008 1827 1583 1480 1288 1655 1605 372 4482 1521 1422 1465 3852 16320 4747 1706 2255 9931 1386 1931 7318 1838 1047 1792 2362 3290 1866 5547
2020-11-22 551 1446 3396 1321 3382 2216 2481 943 3911 6401 10410 1906 2982 2329 3531 3742 3151 4402 37510 2766 9593 5118 2450 14960 1718 7206 1401 28730 1385 1614 5858 1395 4082 15220 1427 4621 2205 1659 3278 4374 9684 7947 1851 3368 2523 2367 2528 1284 3423 6328 2198 1497 2226 8693 8928 2708 1204 1057 3541 2138 1218 1257 3617 1010 18970 8395 1297 1465 5534 1822 3108 2102 1148 7754 1202 11680 3184 1723 9861 7289 534 1455 1464 1803 2757 1588 8984 3142 2022 1124 1647 935 1868 5606 2182 1289 2849 2524 1335 1214 1417 725 2388 7712 3367 1909 954 1993 1600 3762 1994 4556 1701 3589 1992 3964 1109 3618 4479 948 3726 650 1646 5912 2416 1641 2379 5749 2435 1471 5011 1867 3604 1538 884 3352 2411 1841 1912 10390 2949 18810 7831 5232 3988 35580 16760 887 3922 2365 2732 24260 5235 2190 487 893 30760 2869 4407 1065 748 3085 613 800 1837 5642 3509 1248 1893 2729 15390 4173 6397 827 2791 5067 1414 2071 4616 512 3903 6517 1635 2269 5010 8044 1502 16630 3320 2333 14850 3230 4542 4062 3888 4416 7117 2501 6429 4713 1878 1926 1990 2762 945 12430 979 3089 689 10870 2094 1512 3173 1519 463 670 13550 11010 2690 1418 10490 2067 1543 23930 5547 3418 5620 1406 1136 1287 2947 5776 578 1731 2150 1953 1268 1373 1728 3466 1327 3494 5469 3923 2491 4542 1641 1922 7572 3672 2447 1101 10510 7301 8519 2007 1318 10830 1159 3029 4786 3693 10460 2039 1071 923 3975 1514 1454 910 3180 1477 2521 1454 1953 363 6097 8839 1222 1014 1483 13320 8801 4691 5134 7747 3045 1845 1603 1492 1307 1673 1630 377 4515 1551 1440 1479 3883 16470 4851 1721 2291 9994 1408 1958 7384 1871 1058 1820 2386 3329 1900 5597

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-16 to 2020-11-22

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-15 501 1279 2925 1121 3010 1987 2224 836 3473 5831 9414 1858 2668 2091 3058 3187 2908 3774 33819 2561 8729 4735 2113 13677 1409 6344 1260 25952 1214 1448 5319 1229 3679 13115 1144 4191 1971 1463 3018 4050 8768 6947 1646 3076 2190 1935 2277 1147 3116 5680 1996 1303 2012 7904 8036 2390 1051 967 3253 1970 1081 1039 3255 879 16886 7342 1131 1307 5048 1664 2791 1912 1090 6713 1057 10497 2817 1516 8253 6668 515 1211 1285 1694 2512 1407 8284 2872 1864 1015 1473 836 1684 4963 1947 1069 2528 2349 1158 1044 1362 641 2183 6921 3062 1695 820 1642 1431 3417 1799 4268 1509 3266 1649 3620 975 3202 4090 851 3358 529 1382 4928 2110 1550 2116 5139 2147 1337 4548 1808 3294 1425 848 3025 2230 1614 1733 8526 2686 16525 7414 4784 3842 32366 15278 814 3609 2171 2369 22817 4717 1909 419 806 28741 2496 3647 920 653 2747 555 717 1533 4932 3008 1109 1637 2474 14308 3634 5662 654 2523 4250 1261 1642 3823 492 3333 5818 1461 1868 4730 7181 1356 15787 2741 2049 13409 2971 4214 3630 3496 3749 6548 2269 5745 3937 1640 1824 1808 2540 843 11288 818 2873 592 9852 1705 1345 2988 1406 410 607 12345 10140 2448 1248 9877 1792 1223 23100 4913 2970 5035 1266 1027 1216 2527 5159 518 1568 1907 1800 1138 1178 1560 3144 1139 2988 4920 3446 2054 4218 1442 1668 7077 3182 2151 980 9541 6537 7384 1761 1133 9841 1106 2742 2835 3321 9543 1792 959 828 3442 1451 1338 778 2703 1243 2328 1235 1694 285 5369 8063 1073 966 1356 11724 7780 4204 4665 7536 2689 1685 1462 1264 1180 1495 1459 327 4286 1344 1311 1382 3505 14905 4147 1490 2045 9442 1259 1769 6546 1646 978 1625 1983 3065 1666 5247
2020-11-16 508 1301 2990 1146 3070 2006 2259 853 3556 5956 9550 1869 2712 2133 3122 3264 2947 3882 34420 2609 8862 4778 2169 13860 1451 6480 1283 26320 1238 1468 5409 1252 3733 13460 1171 4259 2012 1504 3056 4112 8902 7080 1680 3141 2243 1981 2316 1172 3154 5752 2036 1339 2040 8067 8180 2429 1072 983 3301 1988 1103 1055 3322 898 17190 7470 1158 1331 5131 1687 2843 1952 1117 6851 1083 10680 2885 1548 8510 6826 522 1252 1316 1725 2600 1436 8461 2941 1887 1039 1495 853 1708 5047 1987 1099 2601 2374 1184 1067 1382 664 2221 7034 3104 1728 839 1687 1448 3486 1820 4310 1532 3319 1692 3660 992 3270 4167 866 3423 540 1420 5105 2170 1568 2156 5249 2199 1361 4620 1825 3336 1443 859 3081 2262 1642 1763 8810 2724 16900 7466 4879 3869 32960 15560 823 3668 2216 2425 23020 4788 1982 428 821 29050 2547 3790 941 667 2790 562 726 1565 5031 3072 1124 1670 2514 14460 3718 5784 673 2568 4383 1285 1707 3932 502 3418 5939 1493 1953 4800 7308 1383 15900 2832 2083 13600 3007 4259 3700 3564 3850 6622 2305 5861 4042 1680 1858 1830 2589 856 11500 833 2904 613 10030 1748 1374 3012 1425 417 620 12530 10370 2533 1273 9970 1830 1252 23290 4998 3031 5132 1285 1044 1239 2588 5286 529 1588 1962 1826 1192 1212 1583 3178 1184 3078 5001 3525 2107 4278 1470 1707 7150 3248 2241 1002 9680 6674 7591 1801 1153 10000 1136 2792 2964 3386 9670 1837 976 839 3532 1461 1354 802 2800 1266 2396 1267 1747 296 5536 8187 1091 983 1379 12070 7943 4318 4748 7597 2739 1707 1481 1291 1200 1519 1487 333 4330 1377 1331 1398 3564 15180 4245 1529 2087 9548 1284 1798 6687 1680 987 1654 2031 3090 1706 5290
2020-11-17 517 1328 3073 1178 3127 2028 2299 871 3637 6064 9680 1881 2765 2172 3200 3334 2984 3984 35070 2670 8986 4832 2220 14040 1500 6627 1305 26740 1259 1487 5509 1278 3798 13810 1201 4323 2051 1536 3091 4162 9028 7221 1724 3183 2290 2032 2355 1190 3203 5840 2072 1373 2068 8193 8325 2474 1096 999 3339 2012 1124 1076 3395 919 17530 7619 1180 1358 5215 1713 2895 2005 1146 7011 1112 10850 2949 1584 8780 6961 531 1283 1344 1759 2725 1470 8683 3016 1916 1053 1519 873 1733 5139 2025 1121 2662 2402 1211 1086 1402 678 2253 7159 3144 1762 862 1731 1474 3550 1849 4349 1560 3369 1734 3710 1009 3332 4240 881 3500 551 1462 5243 2237 1588 2202 5361 2251 1383 4692 1853 3380 1459 872 3134 2288 1673 1792 9140 2763 17270 7521 4955 3890 33480 15820 834 3720 2278 2484 23200 4867 2036 436 836 29340 2603 3928 971 683 2836 572 735 1599 5139 3143 1144 1710 2561 14640 3806 5888 698 2605 4514 1309 1769 4056 511 3526 6057 1528 2014 4886 7453 1407 16020 2907 2125 13800 3055 4320 3762 3647 3952 6715 2343 5976 4148 1730 1891 1856 2631 876 11650 851 2938 630 10190 1790 1404 3039 1442 425 639 12690 10630 2619 1301 10070 1867 1286 23510 5108 3112 5246 1306 1061 1268 2652 5429 542 1615 2004 1855 1244 1246 1608 3213 1218 3180 5092 3611 2158 4329 1501 1735 7221 3334 2303 1022 9820 6795 7810 1828 1182 10180 1159 2842 3120 3453 9800 1891 995 856 3618 1472 1372 822 2907 1290 2449 1307 1788 308 5653 8305 1110 1000 1403 12330 8109 4401 4826 7678 2790 1730 1501 1316 1219 1547 1514 341 4370 1414 1348 1413 3626 15380 4332 1570 2128 9625 1304 1830 6825 1716 998 1684 2082 3126 1744 5340
2020-11-18 524 1355 3156 1203 3192 2050 2340 889 3728 6167 9820 1893 2817 2211 3270 3409 3024 4094 35700 2731 9108 4886 2256 14220 1555 6766 1328 27150 1283 1508 5602 1306 3860 14140 1230 4389 2088 1571 3129 4215 9161 7366 1760 3237 2346 2082 2388 1209 3252 5935 2109 1405 2099 8315 8474 2518 1119 1013 3379 2035 1148 1095 3461 940 17860 7770 1202 1382 5303 1737 2948 2061 1175 7175 1138 11010 3013 1621 9070 7098 540 1318 1375 1798 2848 1500 8903 3091 1944 1070 1544 890 1758 5232 2068 1160 2707 2429 1238 1119 1423 689 2292 7289 3186 1797 886 1780 1499 3618 1878 4386 1588 3422 1777 3760 1026 3388 4303 895 3576 561 1504 5393 2297 1609 2242 5458 2304 1405 4762 1882 3424 1473 887 3189 2322 1706 1819 9460 2803 17670 7572 5028 3919 33980 16090 846 3773 2341 2544 23360 4945 2107 443 847 29620 2664 4073 1002 700 2884 581 744 1635 5238 3214 1165 1749 2608 14810 3896 5996 723 2638 4646 1333 1829 4180 519 3623 6175 1563 2078 4972 7595 1432 16140 2980 2168 14010 3103 4377 3836 3734 4044 6792 2381 6090 4256 1775 1918 1882 2669 894 11830 869 2972 647 10320 1836 1433 3067 1463 432 657 12860 10860 2718 1327 10160 1907 1320 23720 5219 3189 5348 1328 1078 1296 2717 5576 556 1641 2059 1886 1287 1285 1634 3250 1264 3245 5182 3685 2205 4383 1533 1764 7291 3422 2376 1045 9950 6933 7979 1861 1220 10350 1177 2895 3292 3516 9930 1944 1013 871 3719 1483 1389 842 3015 1321 2506 1347 1837 316 5794 8411 1128 1016 1430 12570 8274 4484 4914 7761 2835 1755 1521 1343 1238 1575 1543 348 4412 1450 1368 1430 3682 15590 4412 1599 2171 9706 1326 1862 6976 1755 1009 1714 2138 3162 1788 5387
2020-11-19 535 1383 3240 1225 3247 2072 2380 908 3803 6257 9950 1904 2871 2240 3340 3464 3061 4195 36300 2793 9230 4940 2305 14400 1606 6907 1351 27570 1302 1527 5699 1331 3918 14500 1259 4455 2122 1603 3163 4269 9277 7499 1803 3282 2393 2133 2422 1232 3302 6023 2137 1428 2125 8435 8614 2560 1143 1027 3429 2059 1169 1113 3528 962 18170 7918 1223 1404 5383 1764 2999 2121 1201 7334 1160 11150 3066 1657 9360 7231 549 1350 1403 1831 2976 1528 9124 3169 1973 1080 1569 907 1782 5329 2110 1179 2753 2456 1266 1132 1443 706 2320 7412 3226 1832 911 1830 1526 3683 1907 4424 1616 3463 1822 3812 1044 3448 4355 910 3656 572 1546 5538 2346 1628 2277 5565 2356 1427 4842 1910 3469 1487 908 3242 2352 1737 1847 9780 2844 18040 7624 5107 3938 34460 16340 857 3822 2406 2605 23530 5023 2182 450 860 29910 2710 4214 1035 716 2931 588 753 1670 5324 3286 1185 1785 2650 14980 3985 6099 750 2671 4781 1359 1890 4309 527 3724 6297 1599 2143 5055 7733 1454 16250 3050 2211 14200 3152 4423 3881 3821 4142 6873 2417 6205 4361 1816 1944 1908 2698 914 11990 888 3006 666 10460 1875 1461 3094 1478 440 673 13030 11090 2796 1355 10250 1940 1354 23940 5332 3266 5443 1349 1098 1327 2776 5721 570 1668 2102 1921 1323 1325 1660 3284 1301 3313 5283 3761 2254 4433 1565 1794 7356 3512 2440 1066 10070 7039 8165 1888 1249 10500 1197 2946 3482 3582 10060 1993 1030 890 3807 1494 1407 865 3124 1348 2546 1386 1875 324 5898 8511 1147 1035 1452 12770 8426 4570 4998 7843 2883 1780 1541 1373 1254 1603 1568 356 4453 1488 1386 1442 3741 15790 4498 1630 2214 9785 1347 1895 7109 1794 1020 1743 2191 3198 1831 5433
2020-11-20 543 1411 3324 1248 3302 2094 2422 927 3875 6335 10090 1915 2925 2279 3417 3531 3099 4298 36870 2857 9352 4995 2372 14600 1658 7034 1372 27990 1322 1544 5787 1358 3979 14830 1290 4523 2157 1631 3197 4319 9402 7634 1838 3324 2438 2185 2459 1254 3352 6111 2162 1456 2152 8547 8750 2604 1164 1042 3463 2083 1187 1131 3588 984 18470 8066 1245 1428 5460 1789 3047 2178 1225 7499 1180 11300 3115 1694 9650 7352 559 1384 1434 1866 3116 1560 9344 3251 2003 1098 1595 920 1804 5417 2147 1199 2801 2483 1294 1145 1464 716 2350 7527 3268 1867 934 1880 1552 3742 1936 4462 1645 3510 1860 3862 1062 3514 4410 926 3736 583 1589 5685 2378 1649 2318 5656 2403 1449 4911 1940 3514 1501 921 3291 2372 1769 1879 10100 2883 18370 7681 5176 3962 34960 16570 869 3874 2473 2668 23700 5101 2245 458 877 30190 2766 4357 1068 733 2981 598 763 1705 5398 3360 1205 1825 2692 15150 4071 6196 777 2708 4934 1386 1966 4440 533 3825 6412 1636 2205 5142 7863 1476 16370 3115 2255 14410 3202 4478 3935 3905 4229 6949 2456 6316 4462 1865 1969 1934 2722 931 12180 907 3041 682 10590 1909 1484 3120 1496 450 688 13190 11320 2886 1383 10350 1978 1391 24160 5447 3336 5525 1371 1116 1351 2843 5870 585 1696 2141 1950 1354 1358 1686 3311 1344 3394 5362 3837 2297 4488 1599 1821 7428 3601 2507 1087 10210 7154 8353 1918 1291 10650 1215 2998 3664 3655 10190 2045 1050 903 3898 1505 1425 884 3241 1371 2586 1427 1927 337 6007 8619 1166 1054 1473 13000 8568 4649 5059 7927 2928 1802 1561 1396 1270 1631 1598 363 4487 1528 1405 1454 3799 16020 4578 1668 2244 9865 1369 1927 7218 1837 1031 1774 2247 3235 1875 5479
2020-11-21 549 1440 3412 1269 3335 2117 2464 946 3933 6388 10220 1926 2978 2300 3510 3608 3138 4368 37400 2922 9454 5051 2413 14760 1709 7135 1392 28380 1340 1562 5874 1380 4036 15090 1321 4583 2185 1659 3231 4360 9524 7759 1873 3355 2473 2237 2494 1267 3402 6206 2175 1480 2172 8647 8876 2645 1184 1053 3490 2108 1204 1150 3635 1007 18750 8221 1265 1456 5526 1814 3098 2233 1243 7685 1198 11410 3164 1730 9940 7433 568 1416 1463 1900 3244 1588 9578 3332 2028 1112 1617 935 1829 5514 2181 1212 2830 2511 1323 1157 1485 725 2372 7640 3307 1903 959 1925 1579 3801 1965 4498 1675 3544 1902 3913 1080 3568 4449 941 3816 594 1633 5797 2423 1667 2355 5728 2457 1467 4973 1970 3560 1516 933 3337 2390 1792 1906 10410 2923 18680 7734 5210 3981 35340 16780 880 3913 2541 2725 23850 5180 2298 466 888 30430 2819 4483 1102 750 3024 608 772 1737 5489 3434 1224 1857 2732 15330 4148 6281 805 2739 5062 1409 2023 4570 539 3907 6529 1671 2249 5226 7997 1496 16490 3170 2300 14590 3249 4539 3964 3993 4298 7031 2493 6412 4566 1906 1997 1961 2735 950 12300 926 3076 695 10700 1940 1504 3147 1510 457 703 13320 11490 2965 1410 10430 2010 1426 24380 5561 3401 5600 1394 1129 1369 2900 6014 598 1724 2180 1979 1376 1388 1712 3340 1381 3461 5446 3903 2340 4513 1629 1848 7485 3692 2567 1104 10330 7238 8520 1946 1323 10780 1225 3041 3844 3728 10310 2091 1067 910 3978 1516 1443 904 3347 1396 2624 1473 1963 346 6072 8704 1184 1069 1493 13170 8702 4706 5117 8012 2974 1823 1581 1416 1283 1660 1623 371 4519 1565 1421 1464 3842 16170 4652 1693 2279 9924 1389 1955 7320 1876 1042 1803 2301 3272 1919 5522
2020-11-22 554 1469 3497 1289 3368 2140 2505 966 3982 6459 10360 1936 3034 2330 3577 3668 3172 4445 37910 2989 9557 5108 2460 14930 1764 7255 1415 28800 1355 1580 5948 1402 4088 15340 1347 4649 2218 1683 3270 4398 9647 7894 1917 3381 2516 2291 2524 1275 3454 6299 2198 1505 2195 8741 9017 2691 1208 1064 3518 2133 1224 1171 3681 1030 19050 8376 1281 1481 5588 1840 3144 2295 1262 7846 1217 11530 3207 1769 10230 7517 578 1450 1495 1940 3381 1619 9809 3415 2052 1117 1639 951 1853 5607 2218 1232 2864 2539 1352 1163 1507 737 2395 7760 3347 1938 983 1968 1606 3855 1995 4537 1704 3578 1940 3965 1098 3629 4490 956 3896 605 1674 5876 2452 1684 2394 5807 2510 1486 5038 2000 3607 1530 945 3382 2414 1824 1931 10740 2959 18960 7792 5257 3996 35720 16960 892 3951 2612 2790 23990 5256 2348 473 898 30670 2863 4611 1138 767 3069 615 781 1766 5577 3511 1244 1892 2778 15510 4228 6364 835 2774 5197 1431 2083 4708 546 4001 6632 1709 2314 5314 8138 1516 16600 3224 2346 14800 3303 4577 4012 4082 4373 7118 2527 6511 4676 1946 2026 1988 2758 970 12420 945 3111 712 10800 1979 1529 3174 1526 465 721 13460 11670 3082 1436 10520 2042 1462 24610 5665 3473 5676 1416 1144 1395 2950 6169 609 1752 2213 2008 1414 1423 1740 3369 1420 3509 5537 3978 2377 4542 1660 1869 7544 3774 2617 1121 10450 7340 8692 1962 1360 10920 1238 3082 4013 3800 10420 2137 1086 919 4055 1527 1462 923 3454 1422 2663 1517 1998 355 6133 8791 1203 1088 1519 13350 8845 4766 5174 8098 3024 1847 1602 1429 1297 1688 1650 378 4551 1603 1438 1474 3888 16320 4715 1717 2315 9985 1408 1985 7402 1908 1053 1835 2354 3310 1957 5568

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.