COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-15

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	11-01	--	10-21	--	11-04	10-31	--	11-04	10-11	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	10-19	10-08	11-03	10-19	11-03	11-04	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	11-04	11-04	--	--	--	--	10-04	10-01	10-25	--	11-04	--	11-01	--	10-25	--	11-04	10-11	--	--	10-25	11-04	--	10-22	11-04	11-04	10-11	10-07	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	11-04	11-04	--	--	--	11-02	11-04	11-02	10-19	11-04	11-04	11-02	--	09-30	--	11-04	11-03	11-03	11-04	11-02	11-02	11-03	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	11-03	10-08	--	11-03	--	11-02	--	11-01	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	10-18	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	11-02	--	--	11-03	10-11	11-02	11-01	--	10-11	--	11-01	11-02	10-11	11-01	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	11-04	11-03	--	09-29	11-03	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	11-04	10-21	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-18	10-25	11-03	--	--	--	11-04	11-03	--	--	11-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-24	11-03	--	--	--	--	10-13	11-04	--	--	11-02	11-01	10-11	10-11	--	10-18	--	10-10	--	10-19	--	--	10-08	--	--	11-02	10-18	11-04	11-03	--	10-07	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	11-04	11-01	11-04	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-03	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	11-02	--	10-07	11-02	--	--	10-18	10-12	11-03	--	11-04	11-04	--	11-04	--	--	10-18	--	11-02	10-25	11-01	10-05	--	--	11-04	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	10-22	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-04	--	10-20	10-26	11-03	10-21	--	--	11-02	--	11-02	10-05	11-04	11-01	10-13	10-23	10-18	--	--	11-04	10-04	11-04	--	11-02	--	10-22	11-02	--	10-11	11-03	10-07
Peak daily increment			89		62		42	21		97	187	28								70	162	98	57	231	53	139		440		51			73	319					57	70	158		54		52		39		54	128			34	130		53	24	17	61	31	23		76					29	82				30	183	26	243	59	39	279		16		30	46	133	40	244	86	35		30						53	75					40	133	70		25		30		35	72	31	55		60		67									43		55			33	58	19	19		34		31	330	45	375	152		88	542	266		56	66		528	87				609	60					11				86	23			391				50	152	32				96	146			93			612			255	57					100	41			45	41	40	41		194		62		196			67			21	234	244	99		190			435	124					29	65	159			46				27	66						62	35		119	93			178	122	221		38	164		59			172		19	14	96	22			116				49			136				250		101		131	58	26	22			29		8	94	43	21	23	61	313			41	137	24		141		14	32		64	49	132
Days since peak			14		25		11	15		11	35	41								13	27	38	12	27	12	11		17		31			11	11					42	45	21		11		14		21		11	35			21	11		24	11	11	35	39	14		13					11	11				13	11	13	27	11	11	13		46		11	12	12	11	13	13	12		26						34	49					35	12	38		12		13		14	49	21	29		28		14									13		13			12	35	13	14		35		14	13	35	14	47		39	49	14		11	12		47	12				54	20					233				11	25			50				28	21	12				11	12			13			46			22	12					33	11			13	14	35	35		28		36		27			38			13	28	11	12		39			47	14					11	14	11			12				12	34						11	13		39	13			28	34	12		11	11		11			28		13	21	14	41			11				14			24				17		11		26	20	12	25			13		13	41	11	14	33	23	28			11	42	11		13		24	13		35	12	39
Last total	501	1279	2925	1121	3010	1987	2224	836	3473	5831	9414	1858	2668	2091	3058	3187	2908	3774	33819	2561	8729	4735	2113	13677	1409	6344	1260	25952	1214	1448	5319	1229	3679	13115	1144	4191	1971	1463	3018	4050	8768	6947	1646	3076	2190	1935	2277	1147	3116	5680	1996	1303	2012	7904	8036	2390	1051	967	3253	1970	1081	1039	3255	879	16886	7342	1131	1307	5048	1664	2791	1912	1090	6713	1057	10497	2817	1516	8253	6668	515	1211	1285	1694	2512	1407	8284	2872	1864	1015	1473	836	1684	4963	1947	1069	2528	2349	1158	1044	1362	641	2183	6921	3062	1695	820	1642	1431	3417	1799	4268	1509	3266	1649	3620	975	3202	4090	851	3358	529	1382	4928	2110	1550	2116	5139	2147	1337	4548	1808	3294	1425	848	3025	2230	1614	1733	8526	2686	16525	7414	4784	3842	32366	15278	814	3609	2171	2369	22817	4717	1909	419	806	28741	2496	3647	920	653	2747	555	717	1533	4932	3008	1109	1637	2474	14308	3634	5662	654	2523	4250	1261	1642	3823	492	3333	5818	1461	1868	4730	7181	1356	15787	2741	2049	13409	2971	4214	3630	3496	3749	6548	2269	5745	3937	1640	1824	1808	2540	843	11288	818	2873	592	9852	1705	1345	2988	1406	410	607	12345	10140	2448	1248	9877	1792	1223	23100	4913	2970	5035	1266	1027	1216	2527	5159	518	1568	1907	1800	1138	1178	1560	3144	1139	2988	4920	3446	2054	4218	1442	1668	7077	3182	2151	980	9541	6537	7384	1761	1133	9841	1106	2742	2835	3321	9543	1792	959	828	3442	1451	1338	778	2703	1243	2328	1235	1694	285	5369	8063	1073	966	1356	11724	7780	4204	4665	7536	2689	1685	1462	1264	1180	1495	1459	327	4286	1344	1311	1382	3505	14905	4147	1490	2045	9442	1259	1769	6546	1646	978	1625	1983	3065	1666	5247
Last daily increment	4	15	43	14	22	16	26	22	21	36	87	11	42	41	41	48	33	43	280	33	49	25	15	109	25	62	10	241	9	11	35	11	19	168	13	47	23	16	24	26	64	101	14	18	33	25	39	9	21	48	17	22	14	49	71	27	7	7	30	7	9	8	27	15	160	73	9	7	46	13	42	24	6	68	12	63	29	17	133	68	6	30	17	31	33	13	101	41	13	10	18	4	20	56	13	6	27	22	24	3	13	15	23	53	25	23	12	20	8	34	12	39	20	29	26	26	19	39	32	11	47	6	28	47	17	11	20	62	39	12	43	5	43	14	0	13	17	22	19	142	27	237	20	33	16	219	156	4	20	31	29	88	36	26	3	3	148	22	54	12	11	31	1	5	22	49	58	5	12	21	117	45	71	11	27	74	12	33	101	6	40	66	16	21	35	92	8	67	38	23	96	20	13	42	38	45	38	18	51	85	21	12	16	12	1	71	8	27	11	81	17	26	27	15	4	6	80	102	33	12	44	29	9	147	48	27	40	14	12	8	25	93	4	13	23	8	15	22	18	20	19	40	62	46	18	22	10	15	44	44	29	13	61	77	123	10	23	89	13	29	56	22	49	31	13	5	50	6	11	15	36	9	21	18	25	2	55	41	15	15	14	142	93	31	30	44	29	16	21	20	14	19	14	3	23	28	8	6	28	95	70	21	17	56	13	13	65	22	2	24	20	14	21	41
Last week	53	145	423	147	303	129	215	102	417	541	732	94	343	223	397	363	239	568	3381	351	594	325	215	987	258	712	132	2203	128	131	542	152	341	1762	149	445	223	168	199	283	637	817	210	272	282	322	221	131	264	519	217	169	171	610	774	252	131	91	249	133	98	105	393	118	1611	817	124	126	512	151	305	282	153	768	140	817	314	206	1396	720	47	169	152	236	622	138	1153	416	174	102	138	79	163	602	210	138	286	182	166	110	149	84	193	607	217	213	149	256	127	416	139	234	146	315	247	318	107	293	382	79	427	67	237	765	292	135	192	589	282	128	414	141	266	87	83	297	179	174	165	1510	278	1970	293	397	170	2605	1412	73	304	319	334	992	500	326	45	63	1574	299	699	141	94	291	48	44	192	504	420	95	210	235	1063	475	574	121	193	613	157	282	669	51	510	697	203	305	469	754	146	672	377	231	972	258	329	336	443	513	412	205	677	536	244	155	141	182	81	849	113	219	98	758	238	172	218	113	41	93	858	1285	381	168	566	209	182	1218	568	424	529	117	118	132	327	774	72	147	237	181	225	195	132	213	201	417	491	448	259	295	167	180	394	460	319	132	723	695	1123	148	158	874	105	305	806	350	671	271	98	87	464	72	108	116	547	133	277	196	220	51	669	585	105	97	138	1211	897	457	475	424	257	124	124	182	113	137	152	33	234	203	89	75	326	1003	521	211	224	440	121	180	773	192	64	154	256	188	205	294
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95									56																										40											73																																																																					20												75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2																																																																																0												6	16																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-16 to 2020-11-22

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-15	501	1279	2925	1121	3010	1987	2224	836	3473	5831	9414	1858	2668	2091	3058	3187	2908	3774	33819	2561	8729	4735	2113	13677	1409	6344	1260	25952	1214	1448	5319	1229	3679	13115	1144	4191	1971	1463	3018	4050	8768	6947	1646	3076	2190	1935	2277	1147	3116	5680	1996	1303	2012	7904	8036	2390	1051	967	3253	1970	1081	1039	3255	879	16886	7342	1131	1307	5048	1664	2791	1912	1090	6713	1057	10497	2817	1516	8253	6668	515	1211	1285	1694	2512	1407	8284	2872	1864	1015	1473	836	1684	4963	1947	1069	2528	2349	1158	1044	1362	641	2183	6921	3062	1695	820	1642	1431	3417	1799	4268	1509	3266	1649	3620	975	3202	4090	851	3358	529	1382	4928	2110	1550	2116	5139	2147	1337	4548	1808	3294	1425	848	3025	2230	1614	1733	8526	2686	16525	7414	4784	3842	32366	15278	814	3609	2171	2369	22817	4717	1909	419	806	28741	2496	3647	920	653	2747	555	717	1533	4932	3008	1109	1637	2474	14308	3634	5662	654	2523	4250	1261	1642	3823	492	3333	5818	1461	1868	4730	7181	1356	15787	2741	2049	13409	2971	4214	3630	3496	3749	6548	2269	5745	3937	1640	1824	1808	2540	843	11288	818	2873	592	9852	1705	1345	2988	1406	410	607	12345	10140	2448	1248	9877	1792	1223	23100	4913	2970	5035	1266	1027	1216	2527	5159	518	1568	1907	1800	1138	1178	1560	3144	1139	2988	4920	3446	2054	4218	1442	1668	7077	3182	2151	980	9541	6537	7384	1761	1133	9841	1106	2742	2835	3321	9543	1792	959	828	3442	1451	1338	778	2703	1243	2328	1235	1694	285	5369	8063	1073	966	1356	11724	7780	4204	4665	7536	2689	1685	1462	1264	1180	1495	1459	327	4286	1344	1311	1382	3505	14905	4147	1490	2045	9442	1259	1769	6546	1646	978	1625	1983	3065	1666	5247
2020-11-16	505	1304	2993	1157	3093	2019	2261	852	3534	5909	9700	1864	2668	2136	3125	3340	2930	3892	34320	2589	9005	4788	2213	14010	1472	6509	1281	26560	1251	1472	5395	1253	3766	13470	1200	4251	2005	1498	3105	4107	9055	7083	1675	3131	2256	1993	2313	1170	3159	5772	2025	1326	2057	8105	8160	2462	1073	980	3294	1994	1117	1069	3307	898	17330	7484	1164	1341	5084	1686	2836	1921	1097	6965	1087	10890	2886	1545	8559	6745	517	1247	1311	1694	2544	1433	8378	2909	1887	1030	1498	858	1709	5051	1980	1127	2595	2374	1184	1078	1369	653	2212	7102	3170	1725	839	1690	1455	3469	1825	4341	1536	3315	1696	3668	994	3311	4146	865	3407	547	1419	5087	2132	1562	2181	5218	2190	1356	4625	1815	3339	1452	848	3070	2256	1645	1758	8950	2723	16870	7561	4870	3863	33080	15450	825	3655	2195	2421	23230	4791	1937	430	830	29320	2577	3787	941	667	2793	564	729	1589	5077	3078	1149	1671	2509	14460	3709	5795	677	2604	4474	1283	1751	3924	492	3435	5920	1484	1974	4767	7299	1376	15910	2858	2087	13860	3008	4260	3724	3551	3836	6713	2310	5839	4124	1675	1840	1834	2597	857	11610	841	2904	605	10160	1758	1369	3017	1422	418	616	12730	10200	2499	1272	10030	1833	1275	23350	5011	3039	5121	1287	1042	1219	2618	5248	526	1591	1943	1820	1138	1207	1584	3191	1165	3089	5007	3513	2115	4287	1471	1707	7147	3241	2241	997	9840	6662	7548	1839	1159	10000	1109	2784	3143	3372	9830	1818	975	841	3519	1460	1355	796	2769	1276	2369	1265	1731	296	5510	8268	1096	973	1382	12100	7945	4276	4729	7565	2786	1723	1483	1287	1198	1535	1484	341	4319	1374	1330	1395	3582	15470	4258	1534	2080	9607	1281	1795	6650	1677	990	1653	2079	3101	1700	5297
2020-11-17	514	1328	3060	1198	3149	2050	2298	867	3598	5990	9840	1871	2729	2179	3192	3435	2964	3995	35010	2617	9124	4843	2263	14180	1510	6663	1301	26990	1278	1496	5470	1282	3838	13830	1249	4311	2039	1530	3138	4154	9183	7221	1704	3172	2308	2051	2349	1190	3204	5865	2062	1358	2088	8228	8287	2515	1095	993	3335	2018	1139	1099	3359	917	17680	7630	1189	1369	5175	1709	2882	1945	1105	7120	1116	11060	2954	1574	8797	6846	519	1282	1337	1709	2576	1458	8475	2947	1910	1046	1523	880	1735	5140	2015	1157	2654	2400	1209	1106	1377	665	2242	7231	3205	1755	858	1737	1479	3520	1853	4381	1564	3373	1743	3717	1012	3374	4202	879	3458	563	1456	5231	2193	1575	2233	5337	2231	1376	4699	1824	3383	1472	852	3116	2280	1676	1784	9250	2761	17230	7621	4938	3884	33580	15700	835	3710	2221	2473	23430	4865	1974	440	845	29600	2641	3892	962	680	2840	572	741	1636	5203	3148	1170	1707	2545	14620	3785	5915	700	2642	4584	1305	1815	4067	498	3537	6018	1507	2032	4806	7420	1397	16030	2951	2126	14060	3045	4314	3790	3607	3928	6814	2346	5936	4244	1709	1855	1860	2639	871	11760	863	2934	619	10310	1811	1393	3043	1438	425	625	12880	10360	2529	1296	10120	1872	1317	23440	5115	3127	5247	1307	1058	1233	2679	5337	534	1615	1977	1842	1171	1236	1608	3236	1191	3192	5101	3581	2175	4339	1500	1745	7218	3323	2282	1015	9990	6781	7708	1874	1185	10210	1122	2824	3406	3425	9970	1864	991	859	3598	1469	1372	814	2837	1309	2403	1296	1767	307	5632	8391	1117	979	1402	12360	8129	4346	4796	7595	2842	1742	1503	1328	1216	1567	1509	349	4351	1403	1348	1409	3650	15660	4354	1582	2115	9673	1302	1823	6800	1709	1002	1681	2139	3139	1733	5348
2020-11-18	522	1351	3126	1230	3213	2083	2333	882	3658	6070	9970	1878	2784	2219	3259	3532	3008	4098	35630	2647	9235	4896	2303	14370	1568	6801	1321	27390	1309	1519	5546	1315	3908	14140	1291	4372	2071	1564	3177	4208	9326	7361	1733	3232	2377	2111	2385	1210	3246	5956	2102	1388	2126	8342	8412	2563	1116	1005	3375	2042	1164	1129	3410	935	18020	7777	1216	1393	5268	1731	2927	1982	1113	7277	1140	11230	3019	1603	9034	6935	522	1316	1362	1734	2611	1484	8574	2985	1932	1063	1547	895	1761	5230	2047	1205	2696	2424	1234	1147	1385	677	2270	7367	3252	1785	877	1786	1502	3570	1880	4417	1590	3436	1791	3765	1031	3428	4256	892	3509	580	1493	5391	2249	1588	2270	5429	2272	1394	4764	1832	3427	1485	857	3162	2317	1708	1810	9500	2798	17620	7670	5008	3904	34070	15950	845	3764	2249	2523	23630	4938	2026	450	854	29890	2709	4008	982	694	2887	580	753	1688	5318	3219	1196	1743	2581	14770	3861	6040	723	2674	4702	1327	1871	4184	498	3620	6118	1532	2092	4846	7540	1418	16150	3040	2166	14270	3082	4360	3871	3662	4021	6881	2383	6033	4371	1743	1870	1886	2676	885	11930	885	2965	633	10440	1865	1416	3070	1454	433	633	13050	10500	2569	1320	10210	1911	1362	23530	5216	3202	5349	1327	1073	1245	2753	5422	543	1637	2011	1863	1192	1268	1632	3282	1217	3266	5190	3648	2236	4388	1527	1781	7288	3407	2331	1032	10120	6931	7868	1914	1212	10370	1128	2865	3707	3478	10090	1906	1007	874	3698	1478	1388	832	2902	1342	2442	1326	1805	318	5761	8497	1138	984	1425	12600	8306	4415	4861	7626	2884	1769	1523	1365	1234	1592	1533	354	4384	1432	1366	1423	3705	15850	4451	1611	2150	9746	1323	1849	6960	1741	1013	1709	2199	3175	1766	5397
2020-11-19	533	1375	3193	1255	3269	2116	2370	897	3721	6152	10090	1885	2843	2245	3326	3583	3042	4196	36170	2676	9351	4951	2345	14530	1613	6935	1341	27800	1332	1543	5624	1337	3957	14490	1332	4433	2105	1592	3204	4259	9432	7503	1762	3277	2423	2172	2420	1236	3290	6048	2126	1415	2155	8456	8540	2600	1137	1018	3416	2066	1184	1160	3461	953	18300	7926	1240	1414	5342	1753	2971	2018	1122	7416	1158	11360	3066	1633	9268	7031	525	1350	1387	1746	2647	1510	8675	3024	1954	1077	1572	908	1787	5321	2080	1230	2740	2449	1259	1167	1393	689	2300	7477	3286	1815	896	1835	1527	3619	1908	4453	1618	3477	1839	3814	1050	3479	4312	906	3562	597	1531	5542	2296	1601	2297	5534	2313	1413	4849	1841	3471	1496	876	3209	2350	1740	1835	9760	2835	17970	7724	5085	3925	34510	16180	856	3808	2277	2575	23840	5011	2088	459	865	30190	2748	4116	1003	707	2935	588	764	1733	5405	3291	1216	1779	2617	14930	3938	6147	748	2703	4809	1348	1923	4310	502	3706	6216	1557	2147	4886	7662	1439	16270	3123	2207	14440	3119	4409	3917	3718	4116	6956	2414	6131	4472	1777	1884	1912	2705	900	12090	908	2996	646	10560	1920	1440	3096	1471	440	642	13210	10650	2598	1344	10300	1950	1405	23620	5321	3278	5436	1346	1089	1263	2803	5509	551	1660	2046	1886	1202	1301	1656	3328	1244	3332	5304	3716	2298	4447	1555	1816	7358	3489	2375	1049	10250	7025	8029	1946	1238	10510	1137	2906	4080	3530	10220	1942	1023	892	3779	1487	1404	851	2970	1374	2456	1357	1841	329	5868	8596	1159	993	1441	12790	8447	4483	4929	7656	2930	1795	1543	1405	1252	1616	1557	362	4417	1462	1385	1437	3764	16040	4548	1643	2185	9819	1344	1876	7098	1773	1024	1736	2259	3213	1799	5447
2020-11-20	541	1398	3260	1282	3322	2149	2407	913	3784	6234	10220	1892	2888	2285	3394	3636	3087	4292	36720	2705	9456	5006	2391	14710	1658	7057	1361	28200	1359	1566	5701	1365	4011	14800	1380	4495	2138	1617	3234	4307	9538	7648	1791	3320	2470	2235	2456	1263	3334	6141	2161	1452	2186	8562	8668	2645	1159	1031	3458	2090	1196	1191	3513	972	18570	8079	1265	1432	5421	1776	3017	2055	1130	7552	1174	11500	3111	1663	9513	7127	528	1385	1412	1761	2683	1535	8776	3063	1977	1095	1597	917	1814	5414	2114	1260	2790	2474	1284	1189	1401	701	2329	7564	3328	1846	915	1886	1551	3667	1936	4489	1645	3534	1889	3864	1069	3533	4367	920	3616	614	1569	5709	2335	1614	2334	5628	2353	1432	4918	1849	3515	1508	877	3256	2372	1773	1860	10030	2873	18280	7772	5155	3946	34980	16440	866	3866	2306	2626	24030	5085	2132	468	880	30390	2802	4231	1023	721	2984	597	776	1784	5497	3363	1229	1816	2654	15080	4015	6241	773	2733	4892	1370	2000	4429	505	3794	6316	1582	2189	4927	7787	1460	16390	3205	2248	14600	3156	4474	3981	3774	4214	7015	2449	6229	4563	1810	1898	1938	2733	915	12260	931	3027	660	10670	1976	1464	3121	1487	448	651	13370	10800	2627	1368	10390	1988	1450	23760	5441	3334	5508	1366	1105	1274	2864	5597	560	1684	2080	1908	1224	1327	1680	3374	1271	3410	5351	3784	2361	4492	1584	1851	7429	3578	2401	1066	10360	7142	8191	1982	1264	10650	1145	2947	4457	3584	10330	1983	1039	906	3867	1496	1421	870	3039	1408	2482	1388	1878	340	5982	8701	1180	1000	1461	13000	8585	4552	4997	7686	2970	1814	1563	1450	1270	1637	1581	368	4449	1491	1403	1451	3820	16230	4646	1684	2220	9902	1365	1903	7218	1805	1035	1764	2320	3251	1833	5497
2020-11-21	547	1422	3327	1306	3352	2182	2444	928	3847	6317	10300	1899	2929	2298	3462	3698	3120	4339	37160	2735	9518	5062	2422	14820	1687	7129	1381	28450	1378	1590	5779	1383	4052	15040	1416	4558	2172	1644	3253	4344	9609	7796	1821	3348	2488	2300	2491	1277	3378	6234	2177	1480	2207	8635	8798	2674	1181	1044	3499	2114	1206	1223	3565	991	18760	8235	1289	1455	5488	1799	3062	2058	1139	7662	1190	11570	3156	1693	9698	7200	531	1420	1438	1772	2720	1562	8879	3102	1999	1116	1622	927	1841	5509	2148	1275	2817	2499	1309	1211	1409	713	2359	7642	3343	1877	934	1939	1576	3714	1965	4515	1673	3560	1940	3913	1089	3576	4423	934	3671	632	1607	5837	2383	1627	2357	5691	2394	1452	4965	1858	3559	1524	880	3304	2392	1807	1886	10210	2911	18560	7802	5193	3967	35310	16620	876	3899	2336	2679	24170	5160	2167	478	888	30550	2849	4323	1044	734	3034	605	788	1816	5579	3435	1239	1854	2691	15240	4094	6312	800	2762	4967	1392	2035	4508	506	3850	6416	1608	2223	4968	7914	1481	16510	3274	2290	14720	3193	4520	4015	3831	4313	7065	2482	6329	4626	1844	1912	1964	2744	930	12340	955	3058	674	10770	2034	1488	3147	1503	455	660	13430	10890	2645	1393	10430	2027	1496	23780	5504	3373	5573	1386	1120	1275	2915	5686	569	1708	2115	1931	1233	1347	1704	3420	1299	3460	5402	3854	2425	4517	1612	1886	7500	3636	2410	1084	10440	7214	8354	2006	1291	10740	1147	2988	4722	3638	10400	2007	1055	915	3920	1505	1438	890	3109	1442	2495	1421	1916	351	6040	8767	1201	1000	1467	13160	8694	4621	5065	7716	3008	1827	1583	1480	1288	1655	1605	372	4482	1521	1422	1465	3852	16320	4747	1706	2255	9931	1386	1931	7318	1838	1047	1792	2362	3290	1866	5547
2020-11-22	551	1446	3396	1321	3382	2216	2481	943	3911	6401	10410	1906	2982	2329	3531	3742	3151	4402	37510	2766	9593	5118	2450	14960	1718	7206	1401	28730	1385	1614	5858	1395	4082	15220	1427	4621	2205	1659	3278	4374	9684	7947	1851	3368	2523	2367	2528	1284	3423	6328	2198	1497	2226	8693	8928	2708	1204	1057	3541	2138	1218	1257	3617	1010	18970	8395	1297	1465	5534	1822	3108	2102	1148	7754	1202	11680	3184	1723	9861	7289	534	1455	1464	1803	2757	1588	8984	3142	2022	1124	1647	935	1868	5606	2182	1289	2849	2524	1335	1214	1417	725	2388	7712	3367	1909	954	1993	1600	3762	1994	4556	1701	3589	1992	3964	1109	3618	4479	948	3726	650	1646	5912	2416	1641	2379	5749	2435	1471	5011	1867	3604	1538	884	3352	2411	1841	1912	10390	2949	18810	7831	5232	3988	35580	16760	887	3922	2365	2732	24260	5235	2190	487	893	30760	2869	4407	1065	748	3085	613	800	1837	5642	3509	1248	1893	2729	15390	4173	6397	827	2791	5067	1414	2071	4616	512	3903	6517	1635	2269	5010	8044	1502	16630	3320	2333	14850	3230	4542	4062	3888	4416	7117	2501	6429	4713	1878	1926	1990	2762	945	12430	979	3089	689	10870	2094	1512	3173	1519	463	670	13550	11010	2690	1418	10490	2067	1543	23930	5547	3418	5620	1406	1136	1287	2947	5776	578	1731	2150	1953	1268	1373	1728	3466	1327	3494	5469	3923	2491	4542	1641	1922	7572	3672	2447	1101	10510	7301	8519	2007	1318	10830	1159	3029	4786	3693	10460	2039	1071	923	3975	1514	1454	910	3180	1477	2521	1454	1953	363	6097	8839	1222	1014	1483	13320	8801	4691	5134	7747	3045	1845	1603	1492	1307	1673	1630	377	4515	1551	1440	1479	3883	16470	4851	1721	2291	9994	1408	1958	7384	1871	1058	1820	2386	3329	1900	5597

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-16 to 2020-11-22

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-15	501	1279	2925	1121	3010	1987	2224	836	3473	5831	9414	1858	2668	2091	3058	3187	2908	3774	33819	2561	8729	4735	2113	13677	1409	6344	1260	25952	1214	1448	5319	1229	3679	13115	1144	4191	1971	1463	3018	4050	8768	6947	1646	3076	2190	1935	2277	1147	3116	5680	1996	1303	2012	7904	8036	2390	1051	967	3253	1970	1081	1039	3255	879	16886	7342	1131	1307	5048	1664	2791	1912	1090	6713	1057	10497	2817	1516	8253	6668	515	1211	1285	1694	2512	1407	8284	2872	1864	1015	1473	836	1684	4963	1947	1069	2528	2349	1158	1044	1362	641	2183	6921	3062	1695	820	1642	1431	3417	1799	4268	1509	3266	1649	3620	975	3202	4090	851	3358	529	1382	4928	2110	1550	2116	5139	2147	1337	4548	1808	3294	1425	848	3025	2230	1614	1733	8526	2686	16525	7414	4784	3842	32366	15278	814	3609	2171	2369	22817	4717	1909	419	806	28741	2496	3647	920	653	2747	555	717	1533	4932	3008	1109	1637	2474	14308	3634	5662	654	2523	4250	1261	1642	3823	492	3333	5818	1461	1868	4730	7181	1356	15787	2741	2049	13409	2971	4214	3630	3496	3749	6548	2269	5745	3937	1640	1824	1808	2540	843	11288	818	2873	592	9852	1705	1345	2988	1406	410	607	12345	10140	2448	1248	9877	1792	1223	23100	4913	2970	5035	1266	1027	1216	2527	5159	518	1568	1907	1800	1138	1178	1560	3144	1139	2988	4920	3446	2054	4218	1442	1668	7077	3182	2151	980	9541	6537	7384	1761	1133	9841	1106	2742	2835	3321	9543	1792	959	828	3442	1451	1338	778	2703	1243	2328	1235	1694	285	5369	8063	1073	966	1356	11724	7780	4204	4665	7536	2689	1685	1462	1264	1180	1495	1459	327	4286	1344	1311	1382	3505	14905	4147	1490	2045	9442	1259	1769	6546	1646	978	1625	1983	3065	1666	5247
2020-11-16	508	1301	2990	1146	3070	2006	2259	853	3556	5956	9550	1869	2712	2133	3122	3264	2947	3882	34420	2609	8862	4778	2169	13860	1451	6480	1283	26320	1238	1468	5409	1252	3733	13460	1171	4259	2012	1504	3056	4112	8902	7080	1680	3141	2243	1981	2316	1172	3154	5752	2036	1339	2040	8067	8180	2429	1072	983	3301	1988	1103	1055	3322	898	17190	7470	1158	1331	5131	1687	2843	1952	1117	6851	1083	10680	2885	1548	8510	6826	522	1252	1316	1725	2600	1436	8461	2941	1887	1039	1495	853	1708	5047	1987	1099	2601	2374	1184	1067	1382	664	2221	7034	3104	1728	839	1687	1448	3486	1820	4310	1532	3319	1692	3660	992	3270	4167	866	3423	540	1420	5105	2170	1568	2156	5249	2199	1361	4620	1825	3336	1443	859	3081	2262	1642	1763	8810	2724	16900	7466	4879	3869	32960	15560	823	3668	2216	2425	23020	4788	1982	428	821	29050	2547	3790	941	667	2790	562	726	1565	5031	3072	1124	1670	2514	14460	3718	5784	673	2568	4383	1285	1707	3932	502	3418	5939	1493	1953	4800	7308	1383	15900	2832	2083	13600	3007	4259	3700	3564	3850	6622	2305	5861	4042	1680	1858	1830	2589	856	11500	833	2904	613	10030	1748	1374	3012	1425	417	620	12530	10370	2533	1273	9970	1830	1252	23290	4998	3031	5132	1285	1044	1239	2588	5286	529	1588	1962	1826	1192	1212	1583	3178	1184	3078	5001	3525	2107	4278	1470	1707	7150	3248	2241	1002	9680	6674	7591	1801	1153	10000	1136	2792	2964	3386	9670	1837	976	839	3532	1461	1354	802	2800	1266	2396	1267	1747	296	5536	8187	1091	983	1379	12070	7943	4318	4748	7597	2739	1707	1481	1291	1200	1519	1487	333	4330	1377	1331	1398	3564	15180	4245	1529	2087	9548	1284	1798	6687	1680	987	1654	2031	3090	1706	5290
2020-11-17	517	1328	3073	1178	3127	2028	2299	871	3637	6064	9680	1881	2765	2172	3200	3334	2984	3984	35070	2670	8986	4832	2220	14040	1500	6627	1305	26740	1259	1487	5509	1278	3798	13810	1201	4323	2051	1536	3091	4162	9028	7221	1724	3183	2290	2032	2355	1190	3203	5840	2072	1373	2068	8193	8325	2474	1096	999	3339	2012	1124	1076	3395	919	17530	7619	1180	1358	5215	1713	2895	2005	1146	7011	1112	10850	2949	1584	8780	6961	531	1283	1344	1759	2725	1470	8683	3016	1916	1053	1519	873	1733	5139	2025	1121	2662	2402	1211	1086	1402	678	2253	7159	3144	1762	862	1731	1474	3550	1849	4349	1560	3369	1734	3710	1009	3332	4240	881	3500	551	1462	5243	2237	1588	2202	5361	2251	1383	4692	1853	3380	1459	872	3134	2288	1673	1792	9140	2763	17270	7521	4955	3890	33480	15820	834	3720	2278	2484	23200	4867	2036	436	836	29340	2603	3928	971	683	2836	572	735	1599	5139	3143	1144	1710	2561	14640	3806	5888	698	2605	4514	1309	1769	4056	511	3526	6057	1528	2014	4886	7453	1407	16020	2907	2125	13800	3055	4320	3762	3647	3952	6715	2343	5976	4148	1730	1891	1856	2631	876	11650	851	2938	630	10190	1790	1404	3039	1442	425	639	12690	10630	2619	1301	10070	1867	1286	23510	5108	3112	5246	1306	1061	1268	2652	5429	542	1615	2004	1855	1244	1246	1608	3213	1218	3180	5092	3611	2158	4329	1501	1735	7221	3334	2303	1022	9820	6795	7810	1828	1182	10180	1159	2842	3120	3453	9800	1891	995	856	3618	1472	1372	822	2907	1290	2449	1307	1788	308	5653	8305	1110	1000	1403	12330	8109	4401	4826	7678	2790	1730	1501	1316	1219	1547	1514	341	4370	1414	1348	1413	3626	15380	4332	1570	2128	9625	1304	1830	6825	1716	998	1684	2082	3126	1744	5340
2020-11-18	524	1355	3156	1203	3192	2050	2340	889	3728	6167	9820	1893	2817	2211	3270	3409	3024	4094	35700	2731	9108	4886	2256	14220	1555	6766	1328	27150	1283	1508	5602	1306	3860	14140	1230	4389	2088	1571	3129	4215	9161	7366	1760	3237	2346	2082	2388	1209	3252	5935	2109	1405	2099	8315	8474	2518	1119	1013	3379	2035	1148	1095	3461	940	17860	7770	1202	1382	5303	1737	2948	2061	1175	7175	1138	11010	3013	1621	9070	7098	540	1318	1375	1798	2848	1500	8903	3091	1944	1070	1544	890	1758	5232	2068	1160	2707	2429	1238	1119	1423	689	2292	7289	3186	1797	886	1780	1499	3618	1878	4386	1588	3422	1777	3760	1026	3388	4303	895	3576	561	1504	5393	2297	1609	2242	5458	2304	1405	4762	1882	3424	1473	887	3189	2322	1706	1819	9460	2803	17670	7572	5028	3919	33980	16090	846	3773	2341	2544	23360	4945	2107	443	847	29620	2664	4073	1002	700	2884	581	744	1635	5238	3214	1165	1749	2608	14810	3896	5996	723	2638	4646	1333	1829	4180	519	3623	6175	1563	2078	4972	7595	1432	16140	2980	2168	14010	3103	4377	3836	3734	4044	6792	2381	6090	4256	1775	1918	1882	2669	894	11830	869	2972	647	10320	1836	1433	3067	1463	432	657	12860	10860	2718	1327	10160	1907	1320	23720	5219	3189	5348	1328	1078	1296	2717	5576	556	1641	2059	1886	1287	1285	1634	3250	1264	3245	5182	3685	2205	4383	1533	1764	7291	3422	2376	1045	9950	6933	7979	1861	1220	10350	1177	2895	3292	3516	9930	1944	1013	871	3719	1483	1389	842	3015	1321	2506	1347	1837	316	5794	8411	1128	1016	1430	12570	8274	4484	4914	7761	2835	1755	1521	1343	1238	1575	1543	348	4412	1450	1368	1430	3682	15590	4412	1599	2171	9706	1326	1862	6976	1755	1009	1714	2138	3162	1788	5387
2020-11-19	535	1383	3240	1225	3247	2072	2380	908	3803	6257	9950	1904	2871	2240	3340	3464	3061	4195	36300	2793	9230	4940	2305	14400	1606	6907	1351	27570	1302	1527	5699	1331	3918	14500	1259	4455	2122	1603	3163	4269	9277	7499	1803	3282	2393	2133	2422	1232	3302	6023	2137	1428	2125	8435	8614	2560	1143	1027	3429	2059	1169	1113	3528	962	18170	7918	1223	1404	5383	1764	2999	2121	1201	7334	1160	11150	3066	1657	9360	7231	549	1350	1403	1831	2976	1528	9124	3169	1973	1080	1569	907	1782	5329	2110	1179	2753	2456	1266	1132	1443	706	2320	7412	3226	1832	911	1830	1526	3683	1907	4424	1616	3463	1822	3812	1044	3448	4355	910	3656	572	1546	5538	2346	1628	2277	5565	2356	1427	4842	1910	3469	1487	908	3242	2352	1737	1847	9780	2844	18040	7624	5107	3938	34460	16340	857	3822	2406	2605	23530	5023	2182	450	860	29910	2710	4214	1035	716	2931	588	753	1670	5324	3286	1185	1785	2650	14980	3985	6099	750	2671	4781	1359	1890	4309	527	3724	6297	1599	2143	5055	7733	1454	16250	3050	2211	14200	3152	4423	3881	3821	4142	6873	2417	6205	4361	1816	1944	1908	2698	914	11990	888	3006	666	10460	1875	1461	3094	1478	440	673	13030	11090	2796	1355	10250	1940	1354	23940	5332	3266	5443	1349	1098	1327	2776	5721	570	1668	2102	1921	1323	1325	1660	3284	1301	3313	5283	3761	2254	4433	1565	1794	7356	3512	2440	1066	10070	7039	8165	1888	1249	10500	1197	2946	3482	3582	10060	1993	1030	890	3807	1494	1407	865	3124	1348	2546	1386	1875	324	5898	8511	1147	1035	1452	12770	8426	4570	4998	7843	2883	1780	1541	1373	1254	1603	1568	356	4453	1488	1386	1442	3741	15790	4498	1630	2214	9785	1347	1895	7109	1794	1020	1743	2191	3198	1831	5433
2020-11-20	543	1411	3324	1248	3302	2094	2422	927	3875	6335	10090	1915	2925	2279	3417	3531	3099	4298	36870	2857	9352	4995	2372	14600	1658	7034	1372	27990	1322	1544	5787	1358	3979	14830	1290	4523	2157	1631	3197	4319	9402	7634	1838	3324	2438	2185	2459	1254	3352	6111	2162	1456	2152	8547	8750	2604	1164	1042	3463	2083	1187	1131	3588	984	18470	8066	1245	1428	5460	1789	3047	2178	1225	7499	1180	11300	3115	1694	9650	7352	559	1384	1434	1866	3116	1560	9344	3251	2003	1098	1595	920	1804	5417	2147	1199	2801	2483	1294	1145	1464	716	2350	7527	3268	1867	934	1880	1552	3742	1936	4462	1645	3510	1860	3862	1062	3514	4410	926	3736	583	1589	5685	2378	1649	2318	5656	2403	1449	4911	1940	3514	1501	921	3291	2372	1769	1879	10100	2883	18370	7681	5176	3962	34960	16570	869	3874	2473	2668	23700	5101	2245	458	877	30190	2766	4357	1068	733	2981	598	763	1705	5398	3360	1205	1825	2692	15150	4071	6196	777	2708	4934	1386	1966	4440	533	3825	6412	1636	2205	5142	7863	1476	16370	3115	2255	14410	3202	4478	3935	3905	4229	6949	2456	6316	4462	1865	1969	1934	2722	931	12180	907	3041	682	10590	1909	1484	3120	1496	450	688	13190	11320	2886	1383	10350	1978	1391	24160	5447	3336	5525	1371	1116	1351	2843	5870	585	1696	2141	1950	1354	1358	1686	3311	1344	3394	5362	3837	2297	4488	1599	1821	7428	3601	2507	1087	10210	7154	8353	1918	1291	10650	1215	2998	3664	3655	10190	2045	1050	903	3898	1505	1425	884	3241	1371	2586	1427	1927	337	6007	8619	1166	1054	1473	13000	8568	4649	5059	7927	2928	1802	1561	1396	1270	1631	1598	363	4487	1528	1405	1454	3799	16020	4578	1668	2244	9865	1369	1927	7218	1837	1031	1774	2247	3235	1875	5479
2020-11-21	549	1440	3412	1269	3335	2117	2464	946	3933	6388	10220	1926	2978	2300	3510	3608	3138	4368	37400	2922	9454	5051	2413	14760	1709	7135	1392	28380	1340	1562	5874	1380	4036	15090	1321	4583	2185	1659	3231	4360	9524	7759	1873	3355	2473	2237	2494	1267	3402	6206	2175	1480	2172	8647	8876	2645	1184	1053	3490	2108	1204	1150	3635	1007	18750	8221	1265	1456	5526	1814	3098	2233	1243	7685	1198	11410	3164	1730	9940	7433	568	1416	1463	1900	3244	1588	9578	3332	2028	1112	1617	935	1829	5514	2181	1212	2830	2511	1323	1157	1485	725	2372	7640	3307	1903	959	1925	1579	3801	1965	4498	1675	3544	1902	3913	1080	3568	4449	941	3816	594	1633	5797	2423	1667	2355	5728	2457	1467	4973	1970	3560	1516	933	3337	2390	1792	1906	10410	2923	18680	7734	5210	3981	35340	16780	880	3913	2541	2725	23850	5180	2298	466	888	30430	2819	4483	1102	750	3024	608	772	1737	5489	3434	1224	1857	2732	15330	4148	6281	805	2739	5062	1409	2023	4570	539	3907	6529	1671	2249	5226	7997	1496	16490	3170	2300	14590	3249	4539	3964	3993	4298	7031	2493	6412	4566	1906	1997	1961	2735	950	12300	926	3076	695	10700	1940	1504	3147	1510	457	703	13320	11490	2965	1410	10430	2010	1426	24380	5561	3401	5600	1394	1129	1369	2900	6014	598	1724	2180	1979	1376	1388	1712	3340	1381	3461	5446	3903	2340	4513	1629	1848	7485	3692	2567	1104	10330	7238	8520	1946	1323	10780	1225	3041	3844	3728	10310	2091	1067	910	3978	1516	1443	904	3347	1396	2624	1473	1963	346	6072	8704	1184	1069	1493	13170	8702	4706	5117	8012	2974	1823	1581	1416	1283	1660	1623	371	4519	1565	1421	1464	3842	16170	4652	1693	2279	9924	1389	1955	7320	1876	1042	1803	2301	3272	1919	5522
2020-11-22	554	1469	3497	1289	3368	2140	2505	966	3982	6459	10360	1936	3034	2330	3577	3668	3172	4445	37910	2989	9557	5108	2460	14930	1764	7255	1415	28800	1355	1580	5948	1402	4088	15340	1347	4649	2218	1683	3270	4398	9647	7894	1917	3381	2516	2291	2524	1275	3454	6299	2198	1505	2195	8741	9017	2691	1208	1064	3518	2133	1224	1171	3681	1030	19050	8376	1281	1481	5588	1840	3144	2295	1262	7846	1217	11530	3207	1769	10230	7517	578	1450	1495	1940	3381	1619	9809	3415	2052	1117	1639	951	1853	5607	2218	1232	2864	2539	1352	1163	1507	737	2395	7760	3347	1938	983	1968	1606	3855	1995	4537	1704	3578	1940	3965	1098	3629	4490	956	3896	605	1674	5876	2452	1684	2394	5807	2510	1486	5038	2000	3607	1530	945	3382	2414	1824	1931	10740	2959	18960	7792	5257	3996	35720	16960	892	3951	2612	2790	23990	5256	2348	473	898	30670	2863	4611	1138	767	3069	615	781	1766	5577	3511	1244	1892	2778	15510	4228	6364	835	2774	5197	1431	2083	4708	546	4001	6632	1709	2314	5314	8138	1516	16600	3224	2346	14800	3303	4577	4012	4082	4373	7118	2527	6511	4676	1946	2026	1988	2758	970	12420	945	3111	712	10800	1979	1529	3174	1526	465	721	13460	11670	3082	1436	10520	2042	1462	24610	5665	3473	5676	1416	1144	1395	2950	6169	609	1752	2213	2008	1414	1423	1740	3369	1420	3509	5537	3978	2377	4542	1660	1869	7544	3774	2617	1121	10450	7340	8692	1962	1360	10920	1238	3082	4013	3800	10420	2137	1086	919	4055	1527	1462	923	3454	1422	2663	1517	1998	355	6133	8791	1203	1088	1519	13350	8845	4766	5174	8098	3024	1847	1602	1429	1297	1688	1650	378	4551	1603	1438	1474	3888	16320	4715	1717	2315	9985	1408	1985	7402	1908	1053	1835	2354	3310	1957	5568

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-15 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-15