COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-17

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	10-21	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-10	--	--	11-04	10-24	--	--	--	11-02	10-13	10-09	11-03	10-12	--	11-04	11-06	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	10-12	11-04	11-04	--	--	--	10-04	09-27	10-20	--	--	--	10-24	--	--	--	11-04	10-12	--	--	10-25	11-04	11-06	10-21	11-04	11-04	10-11	10-07	11-01	--	--	11-05	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	11-04	--	11-04	11-02	10-13	11-04	--	11-03	11-04	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	--	11-02	11-03	--	10-20	--	--	--	11-04	--	--	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	11-04	10-09	--	--	--	11-02	--	11-01	09-27	10-25	10-12	--	10-12	--	10-31	--	11-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	--	11-03	10-11	--	11-02	--	10-12	--	--	11-03	--	11-03	09-29	11-06	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-03	11-04	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	10-21	11-05	09-27	09-26	--	--	--	10-12	10-25	11-03	11-03	--	--	--	11-03	11-06	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	11-03	10-11	--	11-06	--	10-12	11-05	--	--	11-06	11-01	10-11	10-12	11-04	10-18	--	10-09	--	10-19	--	--	10-09	10-10	--	11-04	10-18	11-04	11-05	--	10-07	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-06	--	--	11-04	10-27	11-04	11-05	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	10-12	--	11-04	--	11-05	--	10-12	--	--	10-09	11-01	11-05	--	10-18	10-12	--	11-04	--	11-04	--	--	--	11-04	10-12	11-04	--	10-25	11-03	10-10	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	11-06	10-29	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	11-04	11-05	10-31	10-05	11-04	10-24	10-12	10-23	10-12	--	--	11-04	10-09	11-04	--	--	11-06	10-21	--	11-03	10-11	--	10-07
Peak daily increment		28	84								191	29			78	74				63	161	99	55	235		134	23	438		46			71	316	29				57	70	158				51				53	131			34	127	147	53	24	16	63	32	22			21				29				51		170	28	244	58		267	123						34		79	32		30				40			75					41	127	71				28		33	72	31	55		61		66		15							42					31	59		16		35			317		363	152	77	87	541	262			64	61	528					609	60									80	24	37	55	391				49	166	29	54				129	37					612			255	52	64		82		101	39			44	39	40	42	19	194		64		194			68	18		19	233	242	99		186			435	118		99			27	64	150	12						27	68		80		76		60			121	87	61		178	124		31		161				70	174	51		14	92	21							47			137			26	249				131	58		22			29	30	8	91	37	21	24	61	317			40	138	23			38	14		53	65		131
Days since peak		27	16								36	38			13	24				15	35	39	14	36		13	11	19		33			36	13	13				44	51	28				24				13	36			23	13	11	27	13	13	37	41	16			12				30				13		13	15	35	13		14	13						13		15	14		28				13			51					37	13	39				15		16	51	23	36		36		17		12							20					14	37		15		36			14		14	49	11	41	51	15			14	13	49					56	22									13	27	12	51	52				36	23	14	14				14	11					48			23	14	37		11		36	12			11	16	37	36	13	30		39		29			39	38		13	30	13	12		41			49	16		11			13	21	13	12						13	36		13		12		36			39	16	12		30	36		13		13				13	36	13		23	14	38							23			36			11	19				28	31		27			13	12	17	43	13	24	36	25	36			13	39	13			11	27		14	37		41
Last total	523	1318	3053	1213	3159	2036	2320	872	3717	6100	9664	1890	2852	2168	3190	3324	2995	3984	35366	2723	8943	4854	2222	13999	1528	6565	1289	26790	1292	1494	5575	1312	3789	13793	1185	4366	2054	1530	3084	4174	9028	7200	1715	3182	2273	2105	2394	1226	3228	5874	2071	1359	2063	8159	8335	2468	1112	991	3363	2020	1104	1090	3393	898	17501	7607	1184	1343	5263	1739	2923	2022	1122	6986	1097	10823	2928	1626	8776	6909	540	1279	1337	1773	2831	1452	8686	3044	1938	1078	1512	855	1748	5217	2048	1127	2653	2407	1212	1087	1435	689	2255	7146	3165	1818	869	1801	1482	3655	1862	4389	1567	3365	1738	3747	1031	3324	4267	876	3517	571	1486	5301	2214	1606	2186	5363	2270	1398	4763	1851	3451	1490	885	3140	2308	1661	1814	9059	2799	17190	7509	4942	3898	33223	15802	862	3747	2313	2500	23148	4933	2047	432	833	29275	2616	4030	973	700	2883	590	742	1628	5123	3174	1146	1694	2554	14692	3845	5962	699	2602	4504	1314	1746	4070	517	3508	6028	1525	1991	4919	7494	1430	16051	2892	2140	13769	3027	4313	3770	3639	3906	6686	2356	6052	4106	1727	1884	1851	2628	888	11635	865	2953	646	10110	1788	1422	3066	1438	428	641	12648	10710	2573	1324	10046	1893	1305	23683	5105	3153	5260	1314	1074	1264	2664	5442	537	1623	2008	1958	1221	1258	1613	3235	1236	3130	5099	3604	2143	4349	1530	1732	7225	3362	2262	1015	9793	6829	7840	1813	1206	10147	1146	2846	3081	3431	9801	1896	1013	851	3621	1487	1381	831	2996	1293	2473	1327	1755	301	5639	8234	1140	1003	1394	12188	8155	4411	4824	7702	2795	1765	1495	1383	1221	1556	1510	342	4378	1409	1350	1429	3623	15319	4368	1554	2112	9591	1299	1829	6896	1712	1015	1684	2073	3126	1766	5349
Last daily increment	3	16	46	18	66	18	45	8	85	89	100	8	85	32	60	39	40	81	648	57	99	47	58	121	50	83	12	382	27	20	96	23	30	273	14	68	20	24	24	61	117	117	20	36	38	66	72	33	52	81	22	21	16	129	113	33	25	8	47	25	9	29	47	10	278	90	26	17	89	33	58	37	12	107	16	157	40	42	205	83	13	28	23	25	128	17	184	68	27	26	14	7	29	89	38	20	51	23	26	15	24	20	33	114	38	61	19	56	15	89	18	51	21	38	43	37	31	44	90	15	70	15	41	133	47	24	24	89	47	27	86	22	62	27	8	41	33	9	27	226	56	325	49	45	24	404	212	21	52	49	55	159	87	56	5	12	213	36	128	17	30	53	8	8	38	89	70	14	22	38	184	92	122	9	40	101	15	38	112	8	67	94	24	42	76	156	27	112	55	32	148	24	43	55	56	50	63	25	104	67	32	21	18	41	22	137	20	36	11	121	34	40	35	19	4	17	124	241	56	31	67	48	23	222	88	90	81	17	15	14	44	104	3	24	37	114	31	25	14	38	34	71	91	58	33	30	40	27	66	71	41	12	110	107	218	20	34	115	22	40	70	38	91	45	23	10	74	17	22	20	102	16	51	28	14	6	91	67	22	13	20	190	140	75	63	71	39	40	20	38	18	28	20	5	34	31	18	18	43	163	78	28	24	62	22	28	174	25	5	15	42	28	31	46
Last week	56	127	351	174	314	132	234	91	456	570	681	85	406	218	364	388	241	542	3469	368	562	319	235	894	253	633	110	2180	155	106	579	163	286	1777	130	462	203	166	173	296	597	732	189	262	236	381	259	167	259	497	206	157	145	599	726	226	139	77	254	127	67	108	333	89	1531	717	132	104	520	167	315	282	105	726	109	769	277	242	1370	697	49	175	146	216	651	111	1072	427	154	131	123	63	163	633	227	119	289	170	165	89	167	105	173	550	229	261	122	327	101	469	142	264	142	274	243	325	125	299	389	75	429	88	256	853	275	134	172	578	282	142	482	108	342	116	87	282	183	141	187	1382	279	1794	265	401	156	2404	1329	85	322	328	325	889	513	354	45	69	1432	274	825	144	101	322	56	50	204	479	448	80	163	221	1011	505	636	109	191	621	144	275	667	58	468	616	190	305	445	742	158	653	371	227	878	193	301	325	393	476	350	216	722	495	211	140	118	181	96	844	115	204	117	686	206	173	202	101	44	77	785	1300	316	188	492	226	194	1287	494	417	498	120	121	119	324	772	62	129	227	269	212	198	132	214	223	384	473	417	251	309	180	184	390	437	301	112	647	679	1098	140	168	782	99	281	774	334	622	262	108	74	425	83	116	133	623	123	302	216	194	48	655	497	131	101	123	1156	880	475	433	427	255	152	107	237	110	143	141	35	234	191	93	78	302	965	554	197	194	413	118	166	791	181	76	149	243	162	220	268
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																																	75	75																																						74																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2																																																																																												6	16																																																																																																																				2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-18 to 2020-11-24

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-17	523	1318	3053	1213	3159	2036	2320	872	3717	6100	9664	1890	2852	2168	3190	3324	2995	3984	35366	2723	8943	4854	2222	13999	1528	6565	1289	26790	1292	1494	5575	1312	3789	13793	1185	4366	2054	1530	3084	4174	9028	7200	1715	3182	2273	2105	2394	1226	3228	5874	2071	1359	2063	8159	8335	2468	1112	991	3363	2020	1104	1090	3393	898	17501	7607	1184	1343	5263	1739	2923	2022	1122	6986	1097	10823	2928	1626	8776	6909	540	1279	1337	1773	2831	1452	8686	3044	1938	1078	1512	855	1748	5217	2048	1127	2653	2407	1212	1087	1435	689	2255	7146	3165	1818	869	1801	1482	3655	1862	4389	1567	3365	1738	3747	1031	3324	4267	876	3517	571	1486	5301	2214	1606	2186	5363	2270	1398	4763	1851	3451	1490	885	3140	2308	1661	1814	9059	2799	17190	7509	4942	3898	33223	15802	862	3747	2313	2500	23148	4933	2047	432	833	29275	2616	4030	973	700	2883	590	742	1628	5123	3174	1146	1694	2554	14692	3845	5962	699	2602	4504	1314	1746	4070	517	3508	6028	1525	1991	4919	7494	1430	16051	2892	2140	13769	3027	4313	3770	3639	3906	6686	2356	6052	4106	1727	1884	1851	2628	888	11635	865	2953	646	10110	1788	1422	3066	1438	428	641	12648	10710	2573	1324	10046	1893	1305	23683	5105	3153	5260	1314	1074	1264	2664	5442	537	1623	2008	1958	1221	1258	1613	3235	1236	3130	5099	3604	2143	4349	1530	1732	7225	3362	2262	1015	9793	6829	7840	1813	1206	10147	1146	2846	3081	3431	9801	1896	1013	851	3621	1487	1381	831	2996	1293	2473	1327	1755	301	5639	8234	1140	1003	1394	12188	8155	4411	4824	7702	2795	1765	1495	1383	1221	1556	1510	342	4378	1409	1350	1429	3623	15319	4368	1554	2112	9591	1299	1829	6896	1712	1015	1684	2073	3126	1766	5349
2020-11-18	530	1342	3123	1236	3216	2055	2374	889	3826	6244	9800	1912	2949	2219	3296	3402	3031	4105	36010	2780	9208	4910	2271	14360	1567	6759	1308	27370	1323	1511	5651	1338	3844	14130	1191	4473	2119	1559	3169	4225	9304	7335	1753	3233	2355	2138	2429	1226	3275	5966	2119	1377	2119	8326	8467	2546	1135	1004	3407	2043	1151	1140	3448	916	17770	7743	1207	1364	5340	1765	2982	2067	1145	7231	1117	11300	3008	1664	9070	7004	553	1333	1411	1861	2954	1478	9010	3064	1964	1089	1535	886	1773	5313	2085	1171	2740	2433	1243	1126	1468	706	2286	7343	3257	1861	890	1861	1507	3724	1910	4439	1594	3411	1782	3798	1055	3383	4330	889	3597	581	1517	5486	2285	1626	2255	5455	2352	1410	4814	1873	3481	1512	898	3189	2336	1705	1834	9480	2852	17650	7648	5012	3923	33950	16030	876	3796	2369	2554	23500	5016	2140	439	846	29880	2708	4078	1001	720	2934	606	750	1658	5287	3247	1190	1723	2626	14860	3945	6067	717	2639	4621	1338	1772	4196	525	3616	6132	1556	2092	5024	7667	1462	16170	3008	2183	14230	3064	4398	3880	3710	3982	6716	2391	6186	4209	1765	1914	1912	2681	905	11930	880	2989	663	10250	1840	1449	3085	1455	437	655	12810	10980	2717	1347	10230	1936	1324	23790	5237	3214	5347	1336	1085	1285	2757	5571	548	1648	2101	1996	1252	1332	1638	3283	1281	3231	5166	3674	2210	4396	1607	1771	7295	3446	2316	1033	9920	6944	8041	1863	1293	10340	1189	2891	3225	3496	10070	1937	1043	870	3703	1496	1399	853	3075	1316	2533	1330	1824	317	5747	8465	1162	1034	1416	12570	8308	4489	4908	7774	2844	1792	1514	1426	1238	1583	1536	353	4421	1441	1369	1444	3699	15420	4469	1584	2162	9750	1320	1858	7221	1744	1027	1709	2116	3251	1809	5399
2020-11-19	538	1366	3191	1261	3243	2075	2419	906	3901	6359	9930	1932	3040	2254	3358	3451	3065	4222	36650	2833	9314	4965	2319	14500	1607	6894	1328	27790	1345	1528	5726	1363	3899	14490	1199	4573	2155	1588	3192	4279	9403	7472	1790	3281	2402	2169	2463	1249	3321	6057	2151	1387	2149	8444	8598	2581	1157	1017	3449	2065	1168	1169	3503	934	18040	7882	1228	1385	5414	1790	3040	2128	1169	7376	1138	11510	3058	1699	9320	7142	566	1357	1449	1907	3077	1504	9210	3109	1989	1105	1558	900	1796	5429	2121	1188	2812	2459	1274	1145	1500	729	2316	7456	3286	1904	911	1921	1531	3791	1941	4472	1621	3456	1824	3849	1079	3441	4391	903	3677	592	1557	5649	2345	1645	2281	5545	2410	1427	4910	1894	3534	1526	910	3237	2364	1725	1854	9730	2903	17990	7705	5089	3947	34400	16240	890	3844	2422	2607	23650	5096	2218	445	858	30130	2748	4169	1031	738	2984	611	757	1687	5377	3319	1209	1750	2670	15030	4042	6175	734	2676	4738	1361	1797	4325	533	3707	6234	1588	2156	5127	7824	1494	16290	3087	2226	14380	3101	4446	3940	3781	4057	6735	2426	6320	4317	1803	1943	1930	2712	921	12080	894	3025	683	10380	1889	1474	3110	1471	446	667	12960	11220	2767	1375	10320	1978	1344	23890	5335	3282	5433	1358	1096	1305	2809	5699	559	1672	2146	2031	1269	1382	1662	3329	1326	3300	5232	3744	2274	4456	1640	1808	7363	3530	2370	1051	10050	7056	8229	1888	1337	10490	1213	2935	3382	3556	10190	1985	1056	888	3782	1511	1416	874	3152	1340	2582	1337	1860	325	5852	8553	1183	1063	1437	12770	8458	4564	4992	7840	2892	1818	1534	1460	1254	1609	1560	362	4463	1473	1388	1459	3758	15430	4566	1613	2207	9820	1342	1886	7375	1777	1039	1733	2157	3300	1851	5447
2020-11-20	545	1389	3260	1289	3263	2095	2460	923	3973	6470	10060	1952	3134	2295	3434	3539	3100	4342	37300	2887	9399	5019	2367	14670	1649	7008	1347	28180	1369	1546	5805	1389	3955	14800	1207	4679	2189	1616	3217	4331	9505	7611	1827	3327	2447	2201	2504	1279	3367	6146	2190	1411	2180	8550	8729	2623	1180	1030	3492	2088	1181	1199	3559	951	18300	8023	1250	1406	5489	1816	3099	2168	1192	7514	1158	11720	3102	1735	9560	7265	578	1384	1489	1956	3206	1531	9400	3163	2014	1128	1580	908	1819	5542	2157	1208	2891	2485	1305	1165	1532	744	2345	7543	3324	1948	932	1983	1555	3861	1964	4506	1648	3501	1866	3899	1102	3498	4451	916	3759	603	1592	5821	2401	1665	2314	5635	2455	1442	4985	1916	3585	1538	924	3286	2391	1743	1875	9980	2953	18290	7749	5162	3971	34860	16460	905	3891	2476	2661	23810	5176	2294	452	870	30390	2800	4263	1061	757	3036	620	765	1717	5466	3390	1223	1778	2715	15190	4146	6285	752	2713	4856	1383	1824	4455	543	3794	6335	1619	2208	5231	7964	1527	16410	3160	2271	14520	3138	4515	4010	3852	4133	6735	2460	6456	4428	1841	1971	1950	2738	937	12240	909	3061	695	10510	1937	1500	3132	1487	455	680	13120	11430	2815	1402	10420	2021	1364	24000	5419	3346	5520	1378	1107	1325	2872	5827	570	1696	2185	2068	1283	1418	1686	3374	1372	3379	5298	3813	2339	4501	1667	1848	7432	3596	2423	1069	10180	7169	8418	1917	1386	10640	1236	2979	3550	3620	10280	2032	1078	901	3861	1522	1433	896	3232	1363	2633	1358	1903	339	5957	8642	1204	1092	1458	12980	8609	4640	5078	7908	2940	1845	1553	1503	1272	1635	1584	367	4505	1504	1406	1473	3813	15450	4658	1642	2233	9890	1362	1914	7520	1810	1052	1756	2198	3353	1893	5496
2020-11-21	553	1412	3329	1315	3269	2114	2482	939	4025	6545	10200	1971	3227	2324	3489	3587	3133	4459	37940	2939	9477	5073	2414	14790	1692	7084	1366	28450	1387	1563	5881	1414	4010	15040	1215	4767	2213	1644	3245	4369	9587	7751	1864	3357	2467	2231	2546	1290	3412	6236	2205	1425	2202	8626	8860	2652	1202	1043	3534	2110	1190	1231	3614	969	18570	8166	1272	1427	5561	1840	3158	2206	1216	7618	1178	11910	3149	1770	9760	7351	590	1405	1526	1997	3336	1557	9580	3206	2038	1149	1604	918	1841	5635	2193	1214	2941	2511	1337	1184	1564	760	2375	7620	3349	1992	953	2045	1579	3929	1980	4537	1674	3546	1907	3949	1126	3556	4510	929	3840	613	1612	5957	2476	1684	2340	5724	2511	1458	5032	1937	3619	1552	936	3334	2418	1756	1894	10180	3003	18580	7787	5205	3995	35200	16670	919	3938	2528	2713	23920	5254	2355	458	882	30610	2847	4326	1093	775	3086	627	773	1747	5549	3461	1232	1806	2740	15350	4207	6394	770	2749	4973	1406	1849	4589	551	3851	6435	1651	2272	5337	8092	1559	16520	3221	2316	14640	3174	4558	4059	3923	4208	6744	2494	6591	4541	1878	1998	1967	2753	953	12340	924	3096	700	10650	1984	1525	3167	1503	465	692	13280	11600	2863	1421	10470	2063	1384	24100	5501	3384	5606	1398	1117	1345	2924	5954	581	1720	2228	2105	1283	1455	1710	3419	1418	3423	5364	3882	2403	4534	1705	1883	7499	3669	2476	1086	10300	7280	8581	1938	1430	10730	1251	3022	3724	3678	10360	2064	1089	910	3939	1533	1450	919	3310	1387	2687	1373	1933	349	6061	8717	1224	1122	1479	13140	8758	4714	5164	7974	2989	1871	1572	1529	1285	1661	1608	371	4546	1535	1424	1488	3846	15460	4733	1671	2264	9930	1383	1942	7643	1842	1064	1780	2239	3395	1935	5544
2020-11-22	560	1435	3398	1333	3269	2134	2499	956	4061	6637	10330	1990	3322	2359	3536	3640	3167	4576	38590	2992	9557	5127	2462	14920	1736	7168	1386	28730	1395	1580	5959	1439	4066	15230	1223	4844	2235	1672	3275	4397	9676	7895	1901	3382	2502	2262	2561	1302	3457	6325	2232	1435	2222	8692	8991	2688	1225	1056	3576	2133	1202	1258	3669	988	18830	8312	1293	1448	5633	1864	3219	2238	1241	7709	1198	12120	3183	1804	9940	7428	603	1433	1557	2047	3472	1584	9720	3245	2062	1161	1627	927	1863	5724	2228	1226	3006	2537	1370	1198	1596	776	2405	7688	3382	2038	974	2110	1603	3998	1998	4578	1701	3591	1948	4000	1150	3614	4569	943	3924	624	1627	6060	2535	1703	2365	5813	2564	1473	5096	1957	3662	1567	949	3382	2445	1768	1914	10370	3054	18830	7825	5246	4018	35480	16890	934	3984	2581	2766	24030	5333	2389	465	894	30730	2874	4429	1125	794	3137	629	780	1777	5616	3533	1240	1833	2765	15510	4252	6506	787	2786	5092	1428	1875	4726	563	3910	6535	1683	2311	5444	8235	1593	16640	3272	2362	14770	3211	4584	4118	3994	4285	6759	2528	6729	4658	1916	2026	1986	2775	969	12450	940	3131	711	10780	2032	1550	3178	1519	474	704	13440	11760	2909	1429	10540	2107	1404	24200	5553	3426	5693	1419	1128	1365	2957	6083	592	1744	2259	2143	1286	1503	1734	3464	1467	3469	5431	3952	2469	4579	1727	1906	7567	3712	2530	1103	10430	7392	8680	1955	1472	10830	1266	3066	3907	3723	10430	2101	1104	918	4018	1541	1466	942	3389	1411	2728	1382	1959	353	6165	8787	1244	1152	1501	13320	8908	4788	5251	8039	3037	1897	1591	1547	1296	1687	1632	376	4588	1566	1443	1502	3883	15500	4791	1701	2286	10000	1404	1971	7747	1875	1076	1803	2279	3449	1977	5592
2020-11-23	567	1459	3468	1395	3269	2154	2546	973	4159	6797	10460	2010	3421	2402	3608	3719	3201	4694	39260	3044	9650	5181	2510	15080	1780	7295	1406	29160	1430	1597	6038	1464	4122	15590	1231	4956	2280	1701	3310	4457	9800	8041	1939	3448	2553	2292	2605	1336	3503	6416	2268	1461	2249	8821	9124	2727	1247	1069	3619	2155	1218	1293	3725	1006	19100	8461	1314	1470	5706	1889	3280	2294	1266	7881	1219	12370	3244	1839	10220	7572	615	1468	1597	2099	3614	1611	9930	3319	2086	1195	1650	941	1884	5848	2264	1256	3089	2562	1403	1223	1629	807	2434	7804	3431	2084	995	2176	1627	4068	2038	4635	1728	3636	1990	4050	1175	3673	4628	956	4009	635	1672	6255	2602	1722	2407	5904	2653	1488	5215	1978	3732	1595	962	3431	2473	1792	1935	10660	3106	19160	7874	5346	4042	35920	17100	948	4031	2633	2820	24170	5412	2470	471	907	30980	2941	4574	1159	813	3190	648	788	1808	5718	3605	1260	1861	2803	15670	4371	6620	805	2823	5212	1451	1901	4867	580	4006	6637	1715	2396	5554	8403	1627	16750	3371	2408	14960	3248	4632	4199	4067	4361	6783	2562	6870	4778	1954	2054	2004	2817	985	12610	955	3167	731	10910	2080	1575	3207	1536	483	716	13600	12020	2968	1465	10620	2151	1424	24300	5659	3509	5780	1439	1139	1386	3036	6212	603	1769	2320	2183	1296	1550	1759	3509	1516	3545	5498	4022	2536	4642	1772	1947	7636	3804	2585	1121	10560	7504	8900	1982	1525	11010	1292	3109	4098	3787	10570	2151	1131	928	4098	1556	1484	965	3469	1436	2795	1409	2008	365	6270	8877	1264	1183	1522	13570	9060	4863	5340	8105	3087	1924	1610	1553	1319	1713	1656	386	4629	1598	1461	1516	3942	15590	4905	1730	2329	10060	1425	1999	7888	1909	1088	1826	2320	3503	2020	5641
2020-11-24	575	1482	3538	1424	3286	2174	2592	990	4243	6887	10600	2029	3523	2439	3678	3768	3235	4813	39930	3097	9757	5236	2559	15220	1827	7403	1426	29550	1455	1614	6119	1490	4179	15890	1239	5025	2308	1730	3338	4511	9919	8190	1976	3484	2596	2322	2656	1362	3548	6507	2291	1489	2270	8944	9258	2768	1270	1082	3661	2178	1232	1314	3781	1024	19360	8612	1336	1491	5780	1913	3343	2334	1291	8005	1239	12510	3292	1873	10450	7669	627	1496	1616	2119	3762	1639	10130	3381	2111	1219	1674	952	1906	5946	2300	1275	3120	2588	1438	1240	1663	827	2464	7919	3470	2132	1016	2245	1651	4140	2063	4686	1756	3682	2033	4101	1200	3732	4688	970	4096	646	1717	6405	2645	1741	2440	5995	2708	1503	5298	1999	3786	1615	974	3480	2500	1812	1955	10920	3159	19500	7924	5396	4065	36360	17320	964	4079	2687	2874	24330	5491	2533	478	919	31220	2987	4702	1193	832	3243	656	796	1839	5829	3678	1276	1889	2844	15830	4474	6737	824	2860	5334	1474	1928	5012	589	4088	6739	1747	2444	5666	8539	1662	16870	3442	2456	15120	3286	4681	4260	4140	4439	6854	2597	7014	4901	1992	2082	2028	2857	1001	12760	971	3203	744	11050	2130	1601	3238	1552	493	728	13760	12270	3033	1498	10700	2196	1445	24400	5752	3607	5868	1460	1149	1406	3088	6344	614	1793	2364	2223	1329	1579	1783	3554	1568	3626	5567	4093	2606	4680	1815	1976	7704	3879	2640	1139	10690	7618	9122	2005	1560	11150	1317	3153	4299	3830	10670	2199	1157	941	4178	1571	1501	989	3551	1461	2849	1448	2036	374	6376	8964	1285	1214	1544	13780	9213	4939	5431	8171	3136	1951	1630	1582	1338	1739	1680	392	4671	1630	1480	1530	3993	15770	4985	1760	2358	10130	1446	2028	7996	1942	1100	1850	2361	3530	2063	5689

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-18 to 2020-11-24

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-17	523	1318	3053	1213	3159	2036	2320	872	3717	6100	9664	1890	2852	2168	3190	3324	2995	3984	35366	2723	8943	4854	2222	13999	1528	6565	1289	26790	1292	1494	5575	1312	3789	13793	1185	4366	2054	1530	3084	4174	9028	7200	1715	3182	2273	2105	2394	1226	3228	5874	2071	1359	2063	8159	8335	2468	1112	991	3363	2020	1104	1090	3393	898	17501	7607	1184	1343	5263	1739	2923	2022	1122	6986	1097	10823	2928	1626	8776	6909	540	1279	1337	1773	2831	1452	8686	3044	1938	1078	1512	855	1748	5217	2048	1127	2653	2407	1212	1087	1435	689	2255	7146	3165	1818	869	1801	1482	3655	1862	4389	1567	3365	1738	3747	1031	3324	4267	876	3517	571	1486	5301	2214	1606	2186	5363	2270	1398	4763	1851	3451	1490	885	3140	2308	1661	1814	9059	2799	17190	7509	4942	3898	33223	15802	862	3747	2313	2500	23148	4933	2047	432	833	29275	2616	4030	973	700	2883	590	742	1628	5123	3174	1146	1694	2554	14692	3845	5962	699	2602	4504	1314	1746	4070	517	3508	6028	1525	1991	4919	7494	1430	16051	2892	2140	13769	3027	4313	3770	3639	3906	6686	2356	6052	4106	1727	1884	1851	2628	888	11635	865	2953	646	10110	1788	1422	3066	1438	428	641	12648	10710	2573	1324	10046	1893	1305	23683	5105	3153	5260	1314	1074	1264	2664	5442	537	1623	2008	1958	1221	1258	1613	3235	1236	3130	5099	3604	2143	4349	1530	1732	7225	3362	2262	1015	9793	6829	7840	1813	1206	10147	1146	2846	3081	3431	9801	1896	1013	851	3621	1487	1381	831	2996	1293	2473	1327	1755	301	5639	8234	1140	1003	1394	12188	8155	4411	4824	7702	2795	1765	1495	1383	1221	1556	1510	342	4378	1409	1350	1429	3623	15319	4368	1554	2112	9591	1299	1829	6896	1712	1015	1684	2073	3126	1766	5349
2020-11-18	532	1339	3117	1241	3227	2058	2365	889	3832	6207	9770	1904	2929	2209	3256	3391	3036	4093	36010	2786	9044	4905	2250	14160	1587	6690	1306	27170	1323	1516	5683	1341	3847	14110	1203	4442	2092	1558	3117	4230	9148	7343	1744	3240	2325	2167	2439	1253	3275	5965	2110	1386	2096	8268	8463	2507	1135	1002	3410	2041	1121	1115	3453	913	17790	7736	1208	1358	5354	1769	2984	2073	1142	7127	1115	10980	2987	1670	9020	7029	551	1313	1371	1828	2961	1474	8920	3110	1967	1100	1533	867	1775	5317	2088	1164	2699	2433	1239	1120	1464	704	2294	7264	3209	1865	892	1869	1503	3743	1891	4431	1592	3413	1781	3795	1054	3366	4339	888	3589	585	1534	5462	2272	1629	2222	5460	2324	1421	4842	1872	3504	1509	899	3190	2346	1687	1845	9310	2846	17580	7554	5010	3926	33650	16050	881	3802	2370	2555	23310	5021	2121	438	844	29550	2673	4168	998	721	2934	602	751	1669	5221	3248	1165	1722	2593	14870	3936	6078	720	2629	4604	1337	1793	4194	527	3589	6142	1552	2047	5004	7635	1460	16160	2966	2180	13940	3059	4367	3851	3706	3984	6731	2391	6171	4194	1768	1906	1876	2666	906	11800	884	2987	668	10220	1834	1455	3097	1457	435	658	12770	10950	2634	1353	10130	1941	1335	23880	5206	3227	5359	1334	1094	1283	2727	5568	547	1648	2069	2019	1260	1299	1636	3277	1287	3187	5186	3677	2188	4397	1570	1764	7289	3445	2310	1034	9890	6956	8043	1842	1248	10300	1165	2897	3217	3480	9910	1943	1035	865	3711	1500	1399	855	3108	1323	2533	1363	1798	309	5771	8316	1165	1020	1417	12410	8311	4495	4922	7768	2830	1795	1513	1429	1241	1582	1535	348	4419	1442	1368	1449	3675	15440	4458	1583	2148	9670	1318	1858	7067	1746	1027	1709	2114	3164	1810	5393
2020-11-19	541	1365	3186	1264	3280	2080	2407	909	3915	6301	9890	1917	2991	2240	3319	3446	3073	4199	36640	2846	9152	4956	2293	14320	1638	6822	1328	27570	1344	1535	5793	1366	3901	14460	1228	4515	2129	1588	3146	4283	9253	7478	1785	3285	2370	2222	2468	1277	3324	6050	2140	1409	2122	8380	8601	2544	1158	1017	3457	2062	1139	1134	3519	933	18080	7881	1231	1377	5433	1797	3036	2130	1169	7261	1136	11100	3038	1709	9290	7163	559	1344	1395	1863	3096	1498	9130	3183	1994	1113	1556	881	1799	5413	2128	1184	2742	2461	1268	1135	1491	723	2324	7376	3243	1903	916	1927	1527	3816	1919	4466	1618	3457	1825	3844	1074	3420	4394	902	3667	598	1578	5617	2320	1648	2250	5561	2378	1443	4916	1896	3547	1521	916	3243	2377	1719	1875	9590	2887	17930	7604	5089	3944	34090	16290	893	3850	2429	2608	23460	5102	2197	445	857	29800	2718	4306	1034	737	2983	610	760	1706	5306	3320	1182	1753	2635	15050	4018	6182	743	2660	4723	1360	1842	4327	535	3684	6256	1585	2110	5092	7769	1486	16270	3039	2222	14100	3100	4415	3897	3785	4074	6797	2423	6290	4291	1811	1930	1899	2696	924	11950	904	3021	696	10340	1874	1482	3122	1472	443	671	12920	11180	2703	1382	10230	1977	1367	24070	5310	3300	5452	1355	1114	1310	2782	5693	559	1674	2117	2059	1300	1344	1661	3310	1328	3242	5283	3750	2235	4451	1604	1794	7350	3524	2367	1054	10010	7069	8235	1868	1280	10450	1188	2947	3390	3541	10030	1989	1053	883	3792	1512	1417	879	3226	1349	2577	1400	1835	316	5871	8404	1186	1040	1440	12600	8466	4584	5014	7836	2874	1820	1533	1468	1257	1609	1557	355	4458	1477	1385	1461	3731	15580	4549	1613	2188	9740	1339	1892	7203	1784	1038	1735	2158	3195	1858	5437
2020-11-20	550	1391	3254	1289	3329	2102	2452	928	3999	6392	10010	1930	3053	2278	3385	3532	3112	4303	37280	2907	9250	5008	2344	14480	1690	6945	1349	27960	1368	1554	5898	1393	3959	14780	1256	4589	2166	1618	3175	4335	9362	7618	1821	3331	2415	2277	2499	1303	3373	6133	2176	1439	2149	8487	8742	2586	1180	1031	3494	2083	1154	1153	3586	953	18350	8030	1254	1394	5515	1823	3089	2177	1196	7392	1157	11220	3086	1749	9560	7286	568	1378	1422	1902	3237	1521	9340	3258	2021	1133	1579	894	1824	5510	2168	1208	2794	2489	1299	1150	1518	735	2354	7480	3281	1943	940	1985	1552	3886	1946	4502	1645	3506	1864	3892	1094	3477	4455	917	3745	610	1624	5774	2362	1669	2284	5660	2429	1465	4988	1921	3589	1533	930	3297	2403	1749	1907	9870	2928	18220	7650	5164	3969	34560	16500	908	3904	2488	2662	23630	5182	2268	453	872	30060	2769	4447	1068	754	3034	619	769	1742	5394	3392	1197	1785	2678	15220	4107	6286	768	2689	4836	1383	1892	4463	544	3776	6364	1618	2164	5179	7896	1514	16390	3107	2265	14250	3143	4483	3956	3865	4164	6853	2458	6410	4386	1854	1951	1923	2722	943	12120	923	3055	716	10460	1915	1509	3145	1490	453	683	13060	11400	2772	1411	10320	2018	1402	24280	5412	3372	5542	1377	1134	1330	2843	5824	571	1701	2159	2095	1345	1379	1686	3338	1373	3311	5368	3828	2282	4498	1636	1827	7419	3601	2425	1075	10120	7191	8433	1897	1313	10600	1209	2996	3558	3607	10130	2036	1075	896	3875	1523	1435	901	3347	1373	2629	1440	1879	328	5987	8494	1209	1059	1464	12800	8623	4659	5093	7903	2915	1845	1552	1514	1274	1636	1585	362	4497	1514	1403	1474	3786	15730	4638	1651	2221	9810	1358	1926	7336	1821	1049	1761	2202	3226	1903	5483
2020-11-21	556	1418	3325	1312	3368	2124	2479	948	4058	6458	10130	1943	3114	2303	3447	3584	3150	4385	37910	2968	9336	5060	2377	14620	1738	7039	1371	28290	1389	1572	5993	1419	4009	15040	1281	4661	2195	1648	3203	4379	9457	7754	1857	3362	2447	2331	2530	1319	3421	6222	2196	1462	2167	8578	8877	2620	1203	1045	3528	2105	1166	1172	3645	973	18590	8181	1276	1416	5593	1848	3137	2224	1224	7514	1176	11320	3136	1788	9830	7376	577	1409	1446	1941	3373	1540	9540	3331	2048	1152	1600	907	1847	5605	2206	1221	2831	2518	1327	1166	1545	748	2378	7578	3313	1983	965	2038	1576	3952	1973	4535	1671	3548	1905	3940	1113	3524	4506	930	3824	623	1659	5910	2418	1688	2314	5746	2479	1482	5057	1946	3630	1544	943	3350	2426	1772	1939	10120	2969	18500	7692	5201	3990	34920	16700	920	3948	2549	2716	23760	5260	2329	461	884	30280	2819	4572	1103	771	3079	627	777	1774	5477	3466	1211	1818	2697	15400	4185	6379	793	2721	4947	1406	1943	4596	552	3851	6469	1650	2216	5262	8017	1539	16490	3172	2308	14400	3182	4529	3984	3946	4239	6911	2491	6530	4479	1897	1975	1946	2734	961	12220	943	3090	731	10570	1951	1533	3170	1505	460	695	13170	11570	2837	1437	10390	2053	1434	24480	5512	3434	5630	1397	1149	1346	2899	5954	583	1728	2193	2132	1376	1414	1711	3369	1417	3360	5456	3901	2324	4523	1670	1856	7478	3679	2480	1094	10220	7301	8602	1920	1343	10730	1221	3042	3718	3669	10220	2075	1091	905	3951	1534	1454	923	3452	1397	2676	1481	1905	337	6070	8565	1229	1072	1483	12960	8776	4723	5161	7971	2956	1868	1572	1546	1290	1663	1608	368	4532	1550	1417	1484	3827	15830	4723	1677	2257	9860	1377	1954	7454	1852	1060	1786	2246	3256	1948	5520
2020-11-22	563	1444	3390	1332	3390	2146	2510	968	4104	6515	10250	1956	3178	2334	3508	3635	3184	4470	38530	3030	9418	5113	2414	14770	1786	7142	1391	28640	1404	1590	6089	1443	4053	15260	1304	4733	2220	1674	3236	4416	9566	7889	1896	3384	2487	2387	2558	1331	3471	6309	2219	1484	2182	8654	9018	2661	1226	1057	3561	2126	1181	1191	3701	994	18840	8328	1293	1435	5662	1874	3183	2269	1252	7631	1195	11410	3177	1827	10080	7457	586	1444	1465	1980	3515	1565	9740	3404	2075	1159	1621	920	1871	5702	2242	1234	2860	2546	1356	1172	1572	760	2402	7676	3346	2024	991	2086	1601	4013	1999	4574	1698	3587	1940	3990	1134	3576	4548	943	3901	636	1689	6003	2446	1705	2344	5831	2529	1496	5129	1971	3671	1561	957	3399	2450	1805	1970	10400	3011	18760	7741	5246	4006	35230	16900	929	3987	2611	2771	23890	5336	2369	468	894	30440	2860	4697	1139	788	3127	635	785	1803	5554	3540	1225	1849	2726	15580	4254	6479	818	2755	5058	1430	1994	4735	561	3932	6558	1686	2263	5351	8141	1560	16600	3221	2352	14570	3227	4559	4032	4029	4309	6978	2519	6652	4577	1937	1997	1969	2752	980	12330	963	3124	747	10670	1987	1559	3192	1520	468	708	13290	11730	2925	1463	10480	2085	1467	24670	5599	3501	5708	1417	1165	1368	2949	6076	593	1755	2228	2165	1408	1456	1737	3396	1457	3398	5547	3975	2355	4563	1703	1874	7531	3744	2536	1112	10320	7413	8742	1941	1379	10860	1238	3084	3862	3728	10310	2117	1110	911	4022	1545	1472	942	3569	1420	2722	1522	1933	343	6138	8635	1249	1090	1504	13140	8928	4782	5201	8040	3003	1891	1591	1570	1304	1690	1632	374	4564	1588	1433	1494	3870	15940	4796	1698	2289	9910	1394	1982	7567	1885	1072	1813	2291	3287	1991	5562
2020-11-23	571	1472	3464	1368	3416	2169	2563	989	4216	6642	10400	1967	3237	2372	3577	3708	3224	4578	39220	3094	9557	5166	2481	14960	1837	7283	1415	29090	1433	1611	6206	1471	4120	15630	1328	4811	2273	1709	3280	4478	9715	8035	1937	3448	2541	2444	2588	1354	3521	6391	2254	1517	2210	8811	9173	2706	1249	1072	3597	2148	1206	1212	3772	1016	19180	8491	1321	1464	5738	1902	3238	2323	1281	7799	1220	11600	3241	1870	10390	7602	595	1484	1499	2021	3680	1602	9960	3489	2103	1182	1644	938	1895	5805	2285	1270	2913	2575	1386	1191	1600	786	2434	7810	3396	2067	1017	2154	1627	4097	2029	4624	1725	3637	1987	4037	1154	3658	4617	959	3988	649	1733	6190	2497	1725	2388	5932	2604	1520	5209	1997	3718	1579	972	3458	2481	1839	2003	10760	3053	19150	7804	5350	4025	35810	17180	945	4042	2675	2829	24090	5421	2464	476	910	30760	2922	4901	1181	806	3175	646	795	1845	5664	3617	1245	1881	2779	15770	4350	6616	845	2798	5214	1454	2048	4882	572	4038	6677	1725	2362	5445	8281	1584	16720	3318	2397	14790	3276	4614	4100	4114	4403	7061	2558	6776	4698	1982	2037	1994	2799	1000	12540	984	3159	777	10830	2033	1588	3214	1537	477	724	13480	12010	3055	1495	10590	2130	1503	24870	5707	3582	5810	1439	1181	1397	3020	6216	606	1783	2299	2206	1459	1502	1765	3427	1517	3475	5640	4055	2410	4624	1750	1906	7602	3822	2606	1133	10470	7542	8960	1976	1415	11030	1265	3137	4037	3796	10450	2168	1137	922	4117	1557	1491	970	3715	1450	2789	1566	1999	355	6271	8757	1271	1111	1528	13450	9099	4895	5284	8110	3059	1922	1612	1592	1321	1718	1662	382	4604	1627	1457	1510	3933	16210	4896	1732	2333	10010	1420	2017	7724	1927	1083	1845	2337	3319	2042	5614
2020-11-24	579	1500	3540	1401	3481	2192	2608	1011	4319	6734	10550	1981	3306	2411	3650	3766	3264	4690	39930	3160	9695	5220	2544	15150	1894	7424	1438	29520	1457	1628	6330	1500	4182	15990	1363	4885	2320	1746	3318	4531	9856	8187	1987	3488	2592	2503	2622	1373	3571	6480	2283	1554	2236	8951	9325	2755	1272	1087	3637	2170	1228	1234	3851	1038	19520	8656	1346	1489	5825	1930	3297	2374	1311	7953	1248	11750	3301	1915	10700	7717	605	1521	1523	2054	3853	1640	10210	3571	2132	1197	1667	957	1920	5906	2326	1295	2956	2604	1420	1208	1629	803	2466	7941	3439	2110	1044	2213	1652	4171	2057	4667	1753	3687	2033	4087	1176	3728	4688	975	4074	662	1784	6350	2550	1746	2432	6040	2669	1542	5285	2023	3762	1594	987	3516	2505	1872	2038	11120	3097	19540	7867	5418	4040	36360	17450	958	4095	2740	2887	24290	5506	2537	485	928	31060	2979	5074	1221	824	3226	655	804	1884	5783	3695	1266	1916	2831	15950	4443	6737	873	2839	5364	1478	2103	5039	581	4149	6796	1763	2435	5539	8418	1611	16830	3403	2443	15000	3321	4676	4159	4201	4503	7157	2592	6901	4816	2032	2073	2023	2841	1020	12710	1006	3195	799	10970	2080	1619	3237	1555	485	744	13660	12290	3184	1527	10690	2174	1540	25120	5818	3670	5920	1463	1200	1429	3081	6357	619	1811	2354	2247	1534	1546	1791	3459	1569	3567	5752	4136	2456	4666	1787	1932	7673	3907	2668	1155	10610	7666	9194	2005	1449	11210	1297	3191	4232	3861	10590	2223	1162	938	4214	1569	1509	993	3867	1474	2846	1614	2044	368	6383	8878	1293	1130	1554	13730	9271	4987	5365	8180	3115	1948	1632	1629	1340	1747	1691	390	4646	1666	1475	1523	3994	16430	4989	1771	2373	10090	1441	2056	7880	1969	1095	1877	2384	3348	2090	5672

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-17 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-17