COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-20

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	10-21	11-01	11-08	10-21	--	--	11-07	--	--	10-12	10-10	--	11-07	10-26	10-24	--	--	--	11-08	10-13	10-12	10-28	10-12	--	10-31	11-06	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	10-12	11-02	11-08	--	11-08	--	10-12	09-27	10-20	11-06	11-01	10-11	10-24	--	--	--	11-06	10-13	--	11-08	10-25	10-31	11-06	10-20	11-04	--	10-12	10-13	10-27	--	--	11-03	11-08	11-08	11-09	10-18	--	--	--	--	11-02	10-25	11-02	10-13	11-01	--	11-06	--	--	11-01	11-06	--	--	11-02	11-06	11-01	--	--	10-20	10-11	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	11-09	--	--	--	10-12	10-30	10-11	--	11-08	--	11-02	--	10-29	09-27	10-25	10-12	--	10-12	--	10-31	--	10-29	11-09	--	--	11-08	11-09	--	10-28	--	11-07	11-09	--	11-02	10-12	--	--	--	10-13	11-05	--	11-06	10-12	10-27	09-29	11-06	10-07	09-27	--	--	--	11-08	--	09-29	--	--	11-09	--	09-22	10-26	--	11-09	--	--	11-08	11-08	--	--	--	10-21	11-03	09-27	09-26	--	--	11-08	10-13	10-25	11-03	11-08	11-08	--	11-09	11-03	11-04	--	11-08	11-07	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	11-01	10-12	--	11-03	11-07	10-12	--	--	11-08	11-06	11-01	10-12	10-12	11-08	10-18	--	10-12	--	10-13	11-09	--	10-09	10-12	--	11-03	10-13	11-06	11-06	--	09-30	11-09	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-06	--	--	11-08	10-27	11-03	11-03	11-08	11-09	11-09	--	--	11-01	10-13	--	11-09	--	11-07	--	10-12	--	--	10-12	--	11-03	11-07	10-15	10-12	--	10-29	11-06	11-02	--	--	--	11-01	10-12	11-06	11-07	10-25	11-01	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-08	--	10-13	--	--	11-07	10-29	11-07	--	11-08	10-20	10-15	11-09	10-21	11-08	--	10-30	11-05	--	10-05	--	10-24	10-12	10-23	10-12	--	11-09	11-03	10-11	11-02	--	--	11-06	10-21	11-02	11-02	10-13	--	10-06
Peak daily increment		27	79	41	61			20			195	28		37	76	73				65	166	102	53	239		132	22	434		49			73	315	30		39		58	70	157	140	45	47	51				51	135		29	34	125	143	53	23		64	32	21			20	293	141	23	28					26	163	31	256	57		262			43	29			31	226	77			30	16					56	75	27				42	124	72		24		27		33	71	31	56		62		64		15	85			157	55		42		60	25		27	61				35	30		293	48	353	152	71	85	542				62		528			8		609	60		32			13	10				24	34	55	391			21	51	171	27	52	123		91	121	34		96	146		612			252	48	65		79	85	103			107	46	38	42	43	18	193		67		199	47		66	18		17	231	236	89		183	37		435	111		94			25	65	140	12	27	47	79			26	73		77		74		63			120		58	20	177	127		30	31	157				67	177	47	20	14	88	21							47	9		140			25	247	163		79	132	57	26	22	79		28	27		91		21	25	61	324		33	39	138	23			37	14	31	48	67		130
Days since peak		30	19	12	30			13			39	41		13	25	27				12	38	39	23	39		20	14	22		36			39	18	12		12		39	54	31	14	19	40	27				14	38		12	26	20	14	31	16		39	38	24			17	12	12	11	33					18	26	18	38	19		14			19	14			18	14	19			31	40					40	54	11				39	21	40		12		18		22	54	26	39		39		20		22	11			12	11		23		13	11		18	39				38	15		14	39	24	52	14	44	54				12		52			11		59	25		11			12	12				30	17	54	55			12	38	26	17	12	12		11	17	16		12	13		51			26	19	39		17	13	39			12	14	19	39	39	12	33		39		38	11		42	39		17	38	14	14		51	11		52	19		14			12	24	17	17	12	11	11			19	38		11		13		39			39		17	13	36	39		22	14	18				19	39	14	13	26	19	46							26	12		38			13	22	13		12	31	36	11	30	12		21	15		46		27	39	28	39		11	17	40	18			14	30	18	18	38		45
Last total	541	1351	3210	1255	3283	2113	2432	919	3948	6376	9932	1918	3092	2241	3356	3425	3082	4254	37141	2850	9150	4964	2335	14400	1662	6820	1332	27627	1358	1534	5866	1382	3885	14356	1230	4568	2141	1628	3148	4323	9262	7489	1758	3288	2386	2274	2511	1300	3326	6039	2165	1420	2126	8441	8585	2535	1153	1028	3461	2076	1137	1139	3540	920	18090	7911	1224	1386	5551	1827	3044	2162	1173	7288	1150	11137	3041	1782	9384	7225	576	1346	1403	1853	3079	1489	9085	3241	2004	1132	1563	875	1813	5533	2191	1188	2745	2486	1267	1158	1538	735	2336	7403	3242	1917	918	1991	1516	3882	1933	4480	1614	3509	1855	3929	1113	3411	4471	902	3653	614	1597	5682	2321	1685	2250	5616	2363	1448	4998	1908	3574	1574	928	3289	2396	1731	1893	9578	2898	17909	7619	5148	3956	34136	16404	903	3884	2447	2637	23473	5230	2282	454	871	29890	2756	4612	1038	756	3046	623	760	1713	5301	3369	1179	1759	2670	15086	4059	6322	743	2688	4774	1363	1838	4320	545	3693	6290	1620	2118	5139	7798	1506	16328	3078	2233	14153	3118	4451	3965	3770	4083	6870	2471	6516	4309	1825	1952	1906	2722	917	11967	917	3058	705	10384	1897	1489	3167	1467	445	667	12897	11312	2712	1391	10204	1968	1379	24248	5325	3370	5505	1372	1113	1303	2786	5666	558	1691	2124	2010	1306	1341	1663	3335	1304	3265	5326	3708	2244	4500	1615	1798	7352	3559	2380	1063	10049	7091	8290	1868	1263	10482	1204	2982	3480	3585	10023	1999	1049	877	3798	1533	1424	886	3312	1356	2662	1444	1813	323	5971	8392	1185	1037	1434	12671	8576	4666	4969	7872	2908	1823	1539	1475	1279	1629	1574	363	4458	1503	1378	1481	3757	15738	4624	1607	2214	9780	1362	1920	7307	1781	1041	1754	2170	3197	1865	5457
Last daily increment	5	9	51	13	36	24	27	17	65	78	82	4	81	24	38	25	24	73	506	30	61	28	47	151	26	64	12	217	20	6	71	22	25	161	19	49	28	25	13	38	75	79	9	28	34	62	24	22	25	51	29	15	14	59	53	19	11	6	32	10	9	11	45	9	175	95	9	11	80	18	22	39	15	75	15	83	28	60	157	94	8	19	21	12	81	12	109	59	29	7	17	2	16	84	49	23	25	18	13	18	22	15	21	78	19	31	13	46	6	55	25	24	16	39	28	53	35	29	52	7	37	12	27	85	22	21	19	72	22	12	56	12	28	16	11	42	26	14	22	145	19	201	30	62	22	263	161	11	32	39	41	93	78	69	7	10	184	31	161	15	13	31	10	6	18	54	61	7	17	33	93	67	96	21	18	80	15	22	81	11	48	73	42	37	68	87	10	68	55	34	108	19	42	45	40	33	39	40	131	49	22	22	22	24	8	96	16	29	19	90	25	16	26	12	4	4	66	181	27	9	49	24	20	142	58	57	73	9	15	6	28	54	8	23	20	15	24	24	19	35	15	39	61	20	20	44	17	15	31	49	29	27	69	60	124	17	10	94	12	38	95	48	61	27	12	7	58	9	6	18	101	16	65	40	14	6	93	48	10	17	12	131	123	95	42	37	32	14	11	26	12	18	21	3	18	29	10	9	33	134	71	10	22	42	12	21	121	16	3	14	26	16	22	46
Last week	44	87	326	142	289	140	230	103	481	562	599	68	465	186	334	280	207	514	3515	313	458	252	229	811	277	535	79	1892	149	95	579	160	216	1374	95	416	185	173	154	296	544	641	123	226	229	359	270	161	219	403	183	136	121	576	601	170	110	65	227	110	63	109	300	55	1350	621	102	83	540	174	293	272	89	634	104	690	246	284	1222	612	66	162	133	187	587	95	896	405	152	125	103	43	143	615	254	122	240	157	134	114	185	106	170	525	203	239	109	365	92	494	148	242	123	266	230	326	150	242	392	62	328	88	240	784	223	134	152	529	253	117	487	103	316	162	79	277	180	139	178	1177	232	1603	219	388	130	1963	1248	91	286	301	294	728	547	392	38	64	1255	277	1001	127	114	321	67	49	199	416	412	73	131	210	892	466	710	98	186	584	112	226	593	58	393	533	171	263	432	705	156	589	366	205	822	165	246	370	296	376	357	209	812	452	196	138	109	189	75	725	105	205	122	601	206	164	201	77	35	65	614	1239	291	154	368	204	160	1218	447	417	495	119	97	95	273	589	43	135	233	218	183	184	119	207	183	318	463	295	205	299	178	141	308	411	252	97	545	598	1005	114	150	724	108	263	697	276	512	233	101	53	390	87	96	120	628	113	344	225	144	40	651	367	125	88	86	1060	855	495	325	371	244	145	95	229	112	147	127	38	192	183	79	102	267	910	536	136	182	382	114	149	813	149	65	148	208	146	212	249
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95									56																										40											68																																																																			29														75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																			1														6																																							7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-21 to 2020-11-27

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-20	541	1351	3210	1255	3283	2113	2432	919	3948	6376	9932	1918	3092	2241	3356	3425	3082	4254	37141	2850	9150	4964	2335	14400	1662	6820	1332	27627	1358	1534	5866	1382	3885	14356	1230	4568	2141	1628	3148	4323	9262	7489	1758	3288	2386	2274	2511	1300	3326	6039	2165	1420	2126	8441	8585	2535	1153	1028	3461	2076	1137	1139	3540	920	18090	7911	1224	1386	5551	1827	3044	2162	1173	7288	1150	11137	3041	1782	9384	7225	576	1346	1403	1853	3079	1489	9085	3241	2004	1132	1563	875	1813	5533	2191	1188	2745	2486	1267	1158	1538	735	2336	7403	3242	1917	918	1991	1516	3882	1933	4480	1614	3509	1855	3929	1113	3411	4471	902	3653	614	1597	5682	2321	1685	2250	5616	2363	1448	4998	1908	3574	1574	928	3289	2396	1731	1893	9578	2898	17909	7619	5148	3956	34136	16404	903	3884	2447	2637	23473	5230	2282	454	871	29890	2756	4612	1038	756	3046	623	760	1713	5301	3369	1179	1759	2670	15086	4059	6322	743	2688	4774	1363	1838	4320	545	3693	6290	1620	2118	5139	7798	1506	16328	3078	2233	14153	3118	4451	3965	3770	4083	6870	2471	6516	4309	1825	1952	1906	2722	917	11967	917	3058	705	10384	1897	1489	3167	1467	445	667	12897	11312	2712	1391	10204	1968	1379	24248	5325	3370	5505	1372	1113	1303	2786	5666	558	1691	2124	2010	1306	1341	1663	3335	1304	3265	5326	3708	2244	4500	1615	1798	7352	3559	2380	1063	10049	7091	8290	1868	1263	10482	1204	2982	3480	3585	10023	1999	1049	877	3798	1533	1424	886	3312	1356	2662	1444	1813	323	5971	8392	1185	1037	1434	12671	8576	4666	4969	7872	2908	1823	1539	1475	1279	1629	1574	363	4458	1503	1378	1481	3757	15738	4624	1607	2214	9780	1362	1920	7307	1781	1041	1754	2170	3197	1865	5457
2020-11-21	549	1372	3277	1268	3360	2127	2468	936	4028	6531	10050	1931	3159	2273	3418	3480	3131	4338	37690	2904	9249	5013	2381	14650	1689	7035	1350	27980	1372	1553	5968	1407	3934	14860	1251	4646	2176	1661	3179	4375	9370	7612	1790	3347	2429	2362	2534	1332	3369	6120	2211	1444	2153	8617	8704	2572	1174	1041	3502	2098	1152	1164	3588	935	18340	8033	1242	1405	5646	1851	3090	2233	1199	7419	1168	11200	3131	1838	9700	7384	581	1371	1428	1925	3175	1512	9270	3306	2040	1161	1584	886	1838	5640	2248	1203	2808	2513	1292	1177	1565	750	2366	7506	3281	1965	939	2045	1536	3938	1961	4532	1638	3555	1904	3982	1147	3460	4559	914	3698	628	1631	5819	2336	1708	2321	5711	2412	1469	5075	1930	3617	1595	943	3366	2425	1755	1936	9810	2937	18220	7628	5222	3981	35010	16630	920	3955	2501	2690	23620	5310	2373	461	884	30140	2839	4835	1063	773	3102	632	769	1760	5460	3440	1195	1787	2732	15240	4140	6412	761	2722	4889	1385	1881	4365	558	3766	6386	1652	2230	5234	7874	1538	16440	3143	2269	14320	3156	4546	4028	3836	4155	6919	2525	6654	4377	1862	1978	1929	2760	932	12110	941	3094	705	10500	1897	1515	3202	1482	452	677	13030	11520	2773	1417	10240	2002	1409	24470	5416	3449	5615	1395	1131	1323	2840	5783	568	1716	2164	2030	1313	1388	1686	3377	1354	3381	5371	3769	2331	4549	1647	1827	7411	3652	2430	1081	10160	7200	8400	1893	1291	10620	1239	3053	3534	3686	10130	2053	1066	889	3875	1540	1441	899	3553	1376	2725	1500	1897	331	6082	8418	1199	1057	1454	12880	8724	4775	5035	7936	2953	1851	1557	1506	1295	1655	1599	370	4496	1530	1395	1496	3807	15920	4722	1635	2249	9850	1386	1927	7511	1812	1059	1782	2212	3228	1903	5502
2020-11-22	556	1393	3346	1282	3385	2140	2504	953	4062	6606	10170	1945	3223	2306	3482	3536	3163	4422	38090	2959	9351	5063	2427	14880	1717	7107	1369	28340	1388	1573	6073	1433	3985	15050	1272	4725	2211	1686	3211	4408	9480	7738	1821	3371	2472	2447	2568	1344	3414	6201	2231	1468	2180	8679	8827	2609	1195	1055	3542	2121	1168	1190	3594	951	18600	8156	1261	1424	5741	1873	3115	2304	1224	7552	1186	11260	3160	1892	9850	7456	585	1395	1453	1962	3273	1536	9460	3360	2075	1173	1605	898	1862	5750	2282	1205	2839	2540	1318	1186	1588	766	2395	7611	3320	2013	959	2088	1557	3989	1989	4568	1662	3601	1951	4035	1180	3511	4604	927	3745	642	1650	5954	2351	1731	2341	5781	2451	1491	5153	1953	3658	1614	957	3390	2453	1779	1958	10050	2976	18530	7633	5262	4006	35230	16850	937	3986	2557	2745	23770	5391	2413	468	890	30390	2864	4967	1087	790	3159	641	778	1806	5507	3513	1211	1816	2753	15400	4190	6498	779	2757	5004	1408	1924	4414	565	3797	6483	1684	2268	5277	7943	1571	16550	3208	2305	14490	3194	4570	4089	3903	4228	6949	2577	6792	4444	1899	2003	1953	2778	947	12260	964	3130	716	10620	1901	1541	3236	1498	459	687	13160	11660	2831	1443	10240	2030	1439	24700	5508	3531	5672	1417	1148	1343	2895	5903	578	1740	2205	2050	1313	1421	1709	3417	1371	3418	5423	3832	2367	4598	1680	1857	7472	3702	2481	1099	10270	7310	8476	1918	1319	10760	1257	3083	3541	3719	10240	2088	1083	900	3952	1549	1458	910	3617	1396	2772	1547	1921	339	6192	8445	1213	1075	1475	13090	8872	4838	5102	7999	2998	1871	1575	1537	1310	1681	1624	377	4534	1558	1411	1511	3858	16100	4815	1663	2284	9920	1408	1930	7630	1843	1060	1810	2254	3260	1941	5547
2020-11-23	563	1413	3414	1296	3451	2153	2539	970	4158	6751	10290	1959	3291	2337	3546	3591	3203	4505	38820	3013	9449	5112	2472	15120	1747	7230	1387	28700	1402	1591	6181	1458	4035	15370	1292	4804	2245	1720	3241	4469	9590	7861	1853	3436	2515	2531	2613	1384	3457	6281	2269	1491	2207	8808	8948	2646	1216	1068	3582	2142	1184	1217	3639	967	18850	8276	1279	1443	5836	1896	3164	2376	1250	7682	1204	11320	3222	1948	10110	7603	591	1419	1477	2000	3369	1560	9640	3447	2111	1204	1626	910	1885	5860	2346	1232	2905	2566	1342	1204	1623	794	2425	7714	3358	2062	980	2168	1578	4111	2016	4628	1686	3647	1998	4087	1215	3561	4692	939	3792	656	1698	6089	2368	1754	2380	5876	2517	1511	5232	1976	3731	1634	971	3451	2481	1802	2003	10280	3015	18840	7664	5362	4030	35660	17070	953	4063	2610	2800	23920	5472	2495	475	900	30640	2933	5205	1112	807	3218	650	786	1854	5594	3586	1227	1844	2791	15560	4300	6650	797	2790	5118	1431	1967	4465	581	3864	6578	1715	2352	5375	8054	1603	16650	3272	2341	14660	3232	4616	4147	3968	4302	7007	2629	6932	4512	1936	2028	1976	2822	962	12400	989	3165	731	10740	1918	1566	3270	1513	466	697	13300	11910	2890	1468	10270	2077	1469	24920	5599	3613	5781	1437	1165	1363	2949	6022	588	1764	2245	2070	1347	1458	1731	3458	1405	3491	5491	3895	2429	4646	1712	1887	7531	3797	2530	1116	10380	7418	8637	1943	1346	10890	1283	3137	3615	3782	10340	2137	1099	912	4029	1565	1475	938	3762	1416	2852	1613	1969	346	6299	8472	1227	1093	1495	13290	9020	4964	5168	8060	3042	1904	1593	1568	1325	1707	1649	384	4571	1586	1428	1526	3908	16280	4906	1691	2319	9990	1429	1948	7804	1874	1088	1837	2295	3292	1979	5591
2020-11-24	571	1434	3483	1309	3512	2166	2575	987	4237	6846	10410	1973	3357	2369	3611	3648	3238	4588	39500	3068	9549	5161	2516	15350	1776	7333	1406	29060	1417	1610	6289	1482	4086	15650	1313	4884	2279	1751	3273	4523	9710	7986	1884	3472	2558	2614	2673	1404	3502	6362	2295	1514	2234	8936	9071	2683	1237	1081	3623	2164	1199	1245	3692	983	19110	8398	1297	1462	5933	1917	3210	2450	1275	7816	1221	11390	3271	2003	10330	7703	596	1442	1501	2035	3466	1584	9820	3522	2146	1226	1647	922	1909	5971	2404	1242	2955	2593	1367	1219	1648	813	2454	7818	3397	2110	1000	2218	1599	4207	2044	4676	1710	3692	2045	4139	1249	3613	4783	952	3841	670	1732	6224	2384	1777	2412	5968	2566	1532	5311	1998	3783	1652	986	3502	2509	1825	2033	10510	3055	19150	7702	5413	4054	36070	17300	970	4118	2664	2856	24070	5553	2568	482	912	30890	2983	5398	1136	824	3276	659	795	1903	5687	3661	1243	1872	2834	15720	4386	6781	815	2824	5233	1453	2009	4516	592	3921	6674	1747	2400	5464	8177	1636	16760	3336	2376	14830	3271	4663	4204	4036	4376	7086	2681	7073	4580	1972	2054	1999	2863	978	12540	1013	3200	741	10860	1936	1592	3303	1528	472	708	13430	12170	2947	1495	10300	2120	1499	25140	5691	3698	5874	1458	1183	1384	3004	6144	598	1788	2285	2090	1347	1495	1754	3498	1432	3574	5561	3958	2491	4694	1743	1918	7591	3875	2581	1134	10500	7527	8820	1968	1374	11030	1313	3189	3663	3830	10450	2184	1116	924	4106	1582	1492	955	3855	1436	2917	1663	1991	354	6407	8498	1241	1111	1516	13500	9169	5064	5235	8121	3087	1933	1611	1599	1340	1732	1673	391	4609	1614	1444	1541	3959	16460	4994	1719	2354	10060	1450	1964	8003	1905	1097	1864	2336	3325	2017	5636
2020-11-25	578	1454	3552	1323	3563	2178	2612	1004	4320	6935	10530	1986	3425	2401	3677	3705	3276	4672	40110	3123	9650	5212	2562	15590	1805	7440	1425	29430	1432	1629	6400	1508	4138	15900	1333	4966	2314	1781	3305	4570	9820	8113	1917	3516	2601	2697	2711	1427	3546	6444	2326	1537	2262	9052	9195	2721	1258	1094	3663	2186	1215	1273	3712	999	19360	8521	1316	1481	6031	1938	3248	2526	1300	7950	1239	11450	3318	2061	10560	7814	601	1466	1526	2078	3564	1608	10010	3598	2183	1245	1668	935	1932	6085	2467	1254	2992	2619	1393	1243	1687	831	2484	7923	3436	2159	1021	2286	1620	4283	2072	4705	1735	3737	2091	4191	1284	3664	4850	964	3889	684	1767	6360	2401	1800	2439	6046	2615	1552	5391	2021	3830	1670	1000	3550	2537	1848	2060	10750	3095	19470	7754	5485	4079	36450	17520	987	4163	2719	2914	24220	5636	2652	489	918	31140	3037	5631	1161	841	3336	668	804	1953	5743	3737	1259	1901	2882	15880	4465	6913	834	2859	5349	1476	2052	4568	600	3979	6771	1778	2455	5552	8287	1669	16860	3401	2412	15000	3309	4713	4261	4103	4451	7137	2734	7216	4648	2009	2079	2023	2898	993	12690	1038	3235	750	10970	1962	1618	3337	1543	479	718	13570	12400	3004	1521	10320	2151	1530	25370	5784	3785	5963	1479	1200	1405	3059	6266	608	1812	2325	2110	1354	1530	1777	3538	1478	3636	5638	4023	2538	4742	1776	1949	7651	3952	2632	1152	10610	7636	8920	1993	1402	11170	1339	3236	3754	3882	10560	2229	1134	935	4185	1593	1509	973	3974	1456	2982	1715	2020	362	6515	8525	1254	1128	1536	13720	9318	5159	5303	8182	3133	1954	1630	1631	1355	1758	1698	399	4647	1643	1461	1556	4009	16640	5081	1747	2389	10140	1471	1976	8181	1937	1107	1892	2379	3358	2055	5680
2020-11-26	586	1475	3623	1337	3600	2191	2649	1022	4391	7039	10650	2000	3494	2433	3743	3762	3294	4757	40670	3179	9752	5262	2607	15820	1835	7528	1443	29790	1447	1647	6511	1533	4189	16110	1354	5050	2348	1810	3337	4628	9930	8240	1949	3550	2644	2783	2754	1443	3591	6526	2348	1560	2290	9133	9320	2759	1279	1107	3704	2208	1232	1301	3735	1015	19620	8645	1335	1501	6130	1960	3276	2605	1326	8086	1256	11510	3358	2120	10750	7913	606	1489	1550	2096	3665	1632	10190	3655	2220	1255	1689	947	1955	6202	2508	1262	3021	2646	1418	1261	1716	849	2514	8029	3475	2210	1042	2346	1641	4357	2100	4737	1759	3783	2138	4244	1320	3716	4912	977	3939	699	1808	6498	2417	1824	2457	6116	2645	1573	5473	2044	3870	1689	1014	3584	2566	1872	2090	10990	3135	19780	7772	5542	4103	36730	17750	1004	4211	2775	2973	24380	5719	2738	496	922	31390	3076	5818	1186	859	3397	677	812	2004	5779	3816	1276	1930	2910	16040	4544	7017	852	2893	5467	1499	2096	4621	611	4028	6868	1810	2497	5609	8349	1703	16970	3467	2448	15170	3348	4755	4318	4172	4527	7194	2787	7363	4717	2046	2105	2047	2925	1009	12840	1064	3271	755	11090	1971	1644	3370	1558	486	728	13710	12600	3062	1548	10320	2174	1561	25600	5878	3874	6050	1500	1217	1426	3115	6391	618	1836	2366	2130	1355	1561	1800	3579	1490	3681	5690	4088	2601	4790	1808	1980	7712	4027	2683	1170	10720	7747	9027	2018	1431	11310	1364	3274	3804	3932	10670	2263	1151	947	4264	1613	1526	992	4051	1477	3041	1759	2044	370	6625	8552	1267	1145	1557	13930	9470	5241	5371	8244	3179	1976	1648	1663	1370	1784	1722	406	4684	1673	1477	1571	4060	16820	5168	1776	2424	10210	1492	1992	8333	1969	1115	1919	2421	3391	2093	5725
2020-11-27	593	1496	3694	1351	3642	2205	2686	1039	4471	7134	10780	2014	3565	2466	3810	3820	3327	4843	41170	3235	9854	5312	2653	16060	1865	7614	1462	30160	1462	1666	6625	1558	4242	16320	1375	5135	2384	1834	3369	4671	10040	8368	1981	3584	2688	2869	2781	1463	3637	6609	2374	1583	2318	9206	9446	2797	1301	1120	3745	2230	1248	1331	3786	1031	19880	8770	1353	1520	6232	1981	3307	2686	1352	8222	1274	11580	3389	2181	10940	8029	611	1513	1575	2121	3766	1657	10380	3719	2258	1265	1711	960	1978	6320	2564	1285	3055	2673	1443	1281	1742	861	2544	8135	3515	2262	1064	2398	1663	4406	2129	4764	1784	3829	2186	4297	1357	3769	4974	989	3988	714	1841	6637	2434	1848	2483	6208	2672	1594	5556	2067	3904	1707	1029	3634	2594	1895	2109	11230	3175	20110	7799	5608	4128	37050	17970	1021	4256	2831	3033	24530	5804	2818	503	931	31640	3114	6016	1211	877	3460	687	821	2056	5826	3895	1292	1959	2947	16200	4620	7125	871	2928	5586	1522	2140	4675	622	4087	6966	1842	2541	5678	8443	1737	17080	3533	2485	15350	3387	4807	4375	4241	4603	7231	2841	7513	4786	2083	2130	2070	2949	1025	12980	1090	3306	779	11210	2001	1670	3404	1573	493	739	13840	12790	3119	1575	10380	2203	1594	25830	5972	3965	6121	1522	1234	1447	3172	6516	628	1861	2407	2151	1398	1588	1824	3619	1511	3727	5758	4153	2628	4839	1841	2013	7773	4092	2735	1187	10840	7858	9182	2043	1459	11450	1377	3320	3938	3988	10780	2297	1168	959	4344	1622	1543	1012	4166	1498	3107	1804	2071	377	6735	8579	1280	1163	1578	14140	9622	5339	5440	8305	3225	1993	1667	1696	1385	1810	1747	413	4722	1703	1494	1586	4111	17010	5254	1805	2460	10280	1513	2022	8467	2002	1120	1947	2464	3425	2132	5769

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-21 to 2020-11-27

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-20	541	1351	3210	1255	3283	2113	2432	919	3948	6376	9932	1918	3092	2241	3356	3425	3082	4254	37141	2850	9150	4964	2335	14400	1662	6820	1332	27627	1358	1534	5866	1382	3885	14356	1230	4568	2141	1628	3148	4323	9262	7489	1758	3288	2386	2274	2511	1300	3326	6039	2165	1420	2126	8441	8585	2535	1153	1028	3461	2076	1137	1139	3540	920	18090	7911	1224	1386	5551	1827	3044	2162	1173	7288	1150	11137	3041	1782	9384	7225	576	1346	1403	1853	3079	1489	9085	3241	2004	1132	1563	875	1813	5533	2191	1188	2745	2486	1267	1158	1538	735	2336	7403	3242	1917	918	1991	1516	3882	1933	4480	1614	3509	1855	3929	1113	3411	4471	902	3653	614	1597	5682	2321	1685	2250	5616	2363	1448	4998	1908	3574	1574	928	3289	2396	1731	1893	9578	2898	17909	7619	5148	3956	34136	16404	903	3884	2447	2637	23473	5230	2282	454	871	29890	2756	4612	1038	756	3046	623	760	1713	5301	3369	1179	1759	2670	15086	4059	6322	743	2688	4774	1363	1838	4320	545	3693	6290	1620	2118	5139	7798	1506	16328	3078	2233	14153	3118	4451	3965	3770	4083	6870	2471	6516	4309	1825	1952	1906	2722	917	11967	917	3058	705	10384	1897	1489	3167	1467	445	667	12897	11312	2712	1391	10204	1968	1379	24248	5325	3370	5505	1372	1113	1303	2786	5666	558	1691	2124	2010	1306	1341	1663	3335	1304	3265	5326	3708	2244	4500	1615	1798	7352	3559	2380	1063	10049	7091	8290	1868	1263	10482	1204	2982	3480	3585	10023	1999	1049	877	3798	1533	1424	886	3312	1356	2662	1444	1813	323	5971	8392	1185	1037	1434	12671	8576	4666	4969	7872	2908	1823	1539	1475	1279	1629	1574	363	4458	1503	1378	1481	3757	15738	4624	1607	2214	9780	1362	1920	7307	1781	1041	1754	2170	3197	1865	5457
2020-11-21	548	1364	3256	1272	3309	2136	2454	936	3997	6450	10020	1927	3169	2267	3406	3448	3114	4328	37680	2897	9206	4997	2363	14520	1698	6884	1347	27840	1378	1553	5957	1407	3916	14520	1252	4633	2167	1658	3166	4365	9327	7591	1787	3311	2410	2335	2545	1321	3361	6104	2189	1441	2137	8518	8671	2559	1169	1040	3491	2094	1143	1152	3586	929	18260	8022	1239	1402	5637	1849	3081	2205	1185	7381	1167	11210	3080	1829	9580	7321	586	1368	1424	1887	3182	1498	9210	3302	2030	1152	1578	880	1836	5631	2233	1198	2768	2511	1288	1177	1565	749	2359	7477	3262	1955	936	2044	1531	3952	1954	4511	1632	3546	1893	3980	1139	3442	4519	911	3705	627	1626	5800	2358	1706	2271	5684	2395	1463	5067	1927	3610	1597	942	3340	2423	1753	1922	9710	2933	18110	7633	5187	3975	34410	16580	916	3920	2495	2686	23540	5315	2344	461	881	30040	2798	4769	1061	774	3092	633	767	1743	5372	3433	1188	1783	2687	15230	4128	6420	760	2714	4863	1382	1873	4404	555	3737	6384	1652	2164	5205	7889	1528	16410	3140	2267	14270	3150	4489	4002	3819	4153	6919	2506	6650	4380	1855	1975	1923	2734	929	12010	936	3091	715	10470	1926	1507	3199	1479	450	676	12980	11450	2743	1412	10230	1997	1406	24430	5389	3427	5580	1391	1124	1318	2825	5749	566	1715	2154	2036	1315	1367	1680	3368	1335	3298	5394	3749	2283	4532	1645	1821	7391	3623	2416	1081	10130	7177	8445	1878	1280	10580	1215	3020	3600	3637	10090	2028	1061	881	3866	1546	1439	906	3418	1377	2719	1485	1826	329	6053	8426	1201	1044	1445	12770	8713	4732	5028	7914	2943	1840	1553	1502	1294	1653	1594	367	4485	1535	1387	1492	3786	15830	4704	1622	2244	9800	1381	1927	7429	1801	1050	1777	2204	3216	1895	5494
2020-11-22	555	1384	3318	1291	3332	2159	2484	954	4040	6518	10130	1940	3240	2301	3464	3494	3153	4412	38220	2958	9281	5041	2393	14660	1748	6971	1366	28150	1392	1572	6045	1433	3962	14720	1271	4711	2195	1685	3193	4407	9419	7716	1820	3336	2447	2400	2580	1339	3407	6181	2214	1465	2154	8591	8793	2593	1191	1054	3526	2116	1155	1173	3637	944	18490	8152	1260	1416	5725	1874	3130	2256	1203	7497	1185	11310	3117	1872	9790	7398	597	1398	1446	1927	3289	1516	9360	3368	2058	1164	1595	889	1863	5738	2273	1210	2805	2540	1315	1188	1592	762	2386	7569	3295	1998	959	2101	1550	4022	1978	4548	1654	3584	1930	4030	1163	3485	4560	923	3776	641	1656	5918	2394	1727	2295	5774	2438	1479	5142	1950	3655	1614	955	3393	2451	1780	1951	9900	2976	18350	7661	5230	3989	34660	16780	927	3957	2552	2739	23660	5395	2386	468	890	30220	2833	4908	1090	793	3144	642	776	1775	5439	3507	1201	1814	2707	15400	4198	6526	779	2746	4958	1405	1918	4516	563	3801	6480	1683	2199	5275	7996	1554	16510	3205	2306	14410	3190	4513	4052	3886	4229	6963	2536	6783	4467	1889	1995	1944	2752	946	12100	957	3125	735	10570	1965	1534	3224	1494	456	687	13090	11590	2781	1439	10290	2031	1439	24640	5471	3494	5654	1413	1141	1336	2866	5864	577	1741	2188	2074	1338	1404	1703	3399	1372	3332	5476	3813	2317	4576	1679	1843	7442	3689	2463	1100	10230	7290	8602	1896	1305	10700	1230	3065	3749	3684	10180	2062	1079	887	3941	1557	1457	926	3526	1398	2765	1524	1850	336	6142	8478	1222	1058	1462	12920	8867	4792	5092	7962	2986	1861	1571	1529	1309	1678	1615	372	4517	1572	1399	1502	3825	15950	4780	1646	2279	9860	1397	1944	7540	1826	1060	1802	2245	3245	1933	5536
2020-11-23	564	1405	3388	1321	3399	2182	2531	973	4151	6661	10240	1953	3318	2337	3526	3571	3196	4510	38900	3020	9373	5091	2439	14800	1806	7089	1385	28520	1427	1594	6165	1460	4018	15050	1292	4794	2236	1716	3224	4463	9523	7846	1855	3397	2492	2465	2623	1374	3452	6262	2251	1491	2175	8718	8925	2628	1212	1067	3569	2137	1169	1195	3706	959	18770	8283	1281	1437	5818	1905	3187	2316	1226	7632	1205	11450	3176	1920	10070	7558	607	1427	1473	1969	3418	1541	9550	3452	2086	1195	1616	901	1891	5851	2322	1243	2868	2568	1342	1210	1624	790	2417	7674	3334	2042	983	2163	1569	4112	2005	4596	1677	3637	1976	4082	1187	3545	4638	936	3847	654	1708	6092	2441	1751	2332	5882	2502	1504	5225	1972	3714	1637	971	3450	2482	1806	1983	10170	3019	18670	7697	5334	4012	35100	17040	946	4025	2609	2799	23800	5483	2473	476	900	30460	2892	5139	1119	813	3204	653	785	1818	5537	3586	1215	1845	2746	15570	4289	6663	799	2779	5069	1428	1967	4632	576	3893	6592	1715	2277	5364	8132	1589	16610	3280	2345	14560	3230	4560	4120	3957	4313	7023	2573	6917	4556	1932	2030	1964	2794	963	12260	979	3159	765	10690	2006	1564	3253	1510	464	703	13220	11840	2845	1469	10370	2069	1474	24850	5572	3574	5755	1434	1161	1360	2928	5986	587	1766	2240	2112	1387	1443	1727	3437	1421	3402	5563	3882	2368	4639	1714	1878	7506	3778	2518	1119	10340	7407	8794	1922	1333	10860	1254	3122	3923	3745	10280	2105	1099	898	4024	1570	1475	952	3659	1426	2844	1569	1899	345	6269	8555	1244	1075	1479	13150	9022	4918	5167	8016	3031	1889	1590	1552	1329	1704	1643	381	4557	1610	1420	1522	3881	16150	4894	1677	2316	9930	1418	1976	7681	1858	1073	1833	2285	3275	1974	5581
2020-11-24	571	1426	3454	1343	3459	2205	2573	992	4243	6753	10350	1965	3396	2371	3588	3616	3236	4605	39570	3083	9469	5139	2490	14940	1867	7195	1405	28880	1452	1614	6279	1487	4068	15350	1314	4873	2268	1747	3251	4516	9622	7976	1890	3434	2534	2531	2679	1402	3498	6342	2279	1517	2192	8844	9055	2664	1233	1081	3610	2158	1182	1219	3776	975	19050	8417	1302	1457	5910	1935	3243	2374	1247	7758	1225	11570	3225	1968	10320	7654	617	1456	1499	2003	3547	1564	9730	3530	2114	1220	1635	912	1920	5964	2369	1261	2917	2596	1369	1230	1652	808	2447	7779	3368	2086	1007	2222	1589	4196	2029	4638	1700	3683	2021	4132	1212	3596	4718	949	3921	668	1753	6244	2487	1774	2363	5984	2554	1525	5304	1995	3765	1655	986	3507	2513	1833	2014	10420	3063	19000	7735	5385	4030	35520	17280	963	4078	2667	2856	23960	5569	2543	483	912	30680	2942	5329	1148	833	3260	662	794	1858	5632	3664	1228	1876	2789	15740	4374	6791	819	2812	5174	1452	2017	4749	585	3974	6699	1747	2320	5454	8274	1619	16720	3350	2384	14700	3270	4606	4175	4028	4394	7091	2605	7052	4646	1975	2057	1985	2835	980	12400	1001	3193	782	10810	2048	1597	3282	1526	470	719	13340	12090	2911	1498	10440	2106	1509	25070	5671	3661	5850	1456	1178	1380	2982	6106	598	1792	2281	2150	1421	1476	1750	3472	1462	3476	5652	3951	2414	4677	1748	1906	7567	3861	2569	1139	10440	7522	8991	1944	1364	11000	1279	3175	4096	3796	10380	2152	1118	910	4106	1584	1494	974	3777	1447	2909	1615	1925	353	6378	8622	1267	1090	1499	13340	9179	5008	5239	8070	3075	1916	1608	1580	1348	1729	1667	387	4592	1649	1435	1537	3932	16320	5003	1708	2352	10000	1438	2001	7838	1890	1083	1857	2326	3302	2014	5625
2020-11-25	579	1447	3524	1364	3511	2228	2619	1012	4348	6837	10460	1977	3475	2404	3655	3669	3277	4700	40180	3147	9582	5186	2531	15110	1926	7324	1424	29250	1477	1634	6394	1514	4128	15630	1335	4957	2304	1777	3286	4567	9742	8115	1924	3480	2582	2598	2715	1425	3544	6423	2312	1545	2219	8966	9183	2704	1255	1094	3649	2180	1201	1244	3842	991	19350	8552	1323	1477	6004	1962	3297	2434	1276	7906	1244	11720	3282	2017	10580	7782	627	1490	1531	2054	3672	1592	9960	3609	2143	1238	1655	926	1948	6076	2420	1289	2956	2625	1396	1256	1687	824	2480	7895	3409	2132	1031	2285	1608	4277	2057	4672	1723	3735	2067	4185	1237	3641	4774	961	3995	682	1793	6404	2538	1797	2399	6080	2606	1549	5379	2018	3810	1674	1001	3565	2542	1861	2046	10680	3107	19370	7783	5458	4047	35940	17530	979	4122	2726	2914	24110	5656	2635	491	922	30960	2996	5547	1179	854	3316	672	803	1897	5726	3743	1245	1908	2836	15920	4458	6920	839	2845	5279	1475	2062	4868	596	4059	6822	1778	2391	5544	8410	1651	16820	3420	2424	14890	3311	4661	4250	4099	4478	7145	2639	7188	4738	2012	2083	2011	2872	998	12560	1023	3228	801	10910	2095	1624	3309	1541	478	736	13460	12320	2983	1528	10520	2143	1544	25280	5774	3737	5950	1478	1194	1403	3044	6226	609	1818	2336	2189	1454	1519	1774	3506	1508	3553	5744	4024	2459	4722	1783	1934	7624	3945	2622	1158	10550	7646	9184	1972	1399	11150	1306	3236	4289	3852	10490	2192	1137	922	4189	1595	1513	997	3912	1478	2972	1657	1964	362	6496	8707	1288	1106	1522	13570	9338	5107	5312	8121	3118	1938	1626	1613	1367	1755	1691	394	4626	1689	1451	1555	3983	16440	5080	1737	2389	10080	1461	2031	7982	1927	1094	1886	2367	3339	2059	5668
2020-11-26	588	1473	3603	1386	3559	2252	2662	1031	4443	6945	10570	1989	3555	2436	3719	3718	3316	4796	40780	3213	9679	5242	2572	15250	1988	7449	1444	29640	1495	1654	6508	1542	4189	15970	1356	5044	2340	1807	3320	4625	9862	8249	1958	3525	2630	2667	2753	1447	3591	6502	2344	1570	2242	9084	9314	2740	1277	1108	3688	2201	1219	1268	3905	1007	19650	8690	1344	1495	6097	1999	3352	2505	1308	8036	1264	11830	3335	2066	10850	7920	638	1520	1559	2090	3802	1618	10150	3679	2173	1249	1675	940	1976	6195	2468	1310	3001	2654	1424	1278	1717	842	2512	8013	3448	2179	1056	2347	1628	4353	2082	4709	1746	3783	2117	4236	1262	3694	4835	974	4070	696	1849	6568	2593	1820	2429	6178	2660	1573	5463	2042	3857	1691	1017	3621	2572	1889	2078	10980	3153	19720	7834	5529	4063	36380	17790	994	4171	2787	2972	24290	5744	2730	499	931	31240	3046	5754	1210	875	3376	681	812	1939	5801	3823	1259	1941	2874	16100	4541	7036	860	2877	5388	1499	2112	4984	604	4164	6935	1814	2456	5635	8536	1680	16920	3490	2464	15040	3353	4710	4312	4172	4563	7200	2673	7327	4832	2051	2112	2032	2902	1015	12720	1046	3263	827	11020	2137	1655	3337	1558	486	754	13590	12550	3063	1558	10610	2179	1583	25490	5884	3818	6046	1500	1213	1430	3096	6348	619	1845	2386	2229	1492	1570	1800	3539	1549	3612	5833	4094	2513	4774	1818	1972	7678	4035	2675	1178	10650	7765	9366	1998	1430	11300	1335	3295	4486	3912	10590	2231	1155	937	4271	1610	1532	1020	4065	1508	3031	1701	2007	371	6606	8789	1308	1124	1545	13790	9500	5214	5384	8179	3163	1963	1645	1644	1385	1782	1718	403	4660	1729	1467	1567	4039	16620	5168	1768	2430	10150	1481	2074	8124	1965	1104	1915	2409	3369	2101	5711
2020-11-27	596	1494	3671	1410	3614	2276	2710	1052	4542	7052	10690	2001	3628	2475	3785	3805	3362	4910	41410	3280	9772	5291	2622	15390	2060	7576	1464	30050	1521	1674	6622	1570	4244	16310	1379	5133	2378	1840	3348	4677	9962	8386	1991	3575	2679	2737	2784	1479	3639	6586	2381	1598	2267	9197	9464	2778	1299	1122	3728	2223	1234	1294	3986	1027	19950	8829	1366	1514	6193	2029	3412	2572	1330	8167	1286	11940	3386	2119	11130	8064	648	1551	1589	2133	3940	1642	10330	3758	2202	1269	1696	953	2004	6317	2518	1341	3057	2683	1453	1300	1748	855	2542	8116	3483	2228	1082	2410	1648	4431	2107	4745	1770	3837	2164	4288	1289	3750	4902	989	4148	710	1899	6744	2645	1846	2465	6301	2708	1597	5544	2065	3904	1703	1032	3681	2600	1917	2109	11230	3198	20040	7871	5611	4082	36880	18050	1010	4234	2849	3032	24460	5831	2825	508	943	31480	3099	5971	1242	896	3435	691	821	1976	5909	3908	1273	1974	2919	16280	4630	7160	882	2909	5498	1524	2164	5118	614	4260	7047	1846	2521	5725	8671	1717	17020	3570	2506	15190	3395	4777	4377	4256	4647	7246	2708	7468	4928	2093	2139	2054	2931	1034	12900	1070	3298	856	11130	2183	1688	3362	1575	495	767	13720	12790	3141	1589	10700	2216	1623	25700	5997	3902	6139	1522	1235	1451	3152	6486	630	1872	2434	2270	1561	1609	1824	3570	1601	3686	5929	4169	2564	4821	1854	2012	7742	4122	2739	1198	10760	7889	9556	2030	1461	11460	1358	3354	4739	3979	10690	2274	1177	952	4356	1620	1551	1044	4204	1533	3100	1747	2054	382	6735	8867	1332	1144	1571	14010	9664	5306	5470	8234	3207	1986	1664	1684	1402	1808	1750	410	4695	1771	1484	1580	4098	16760	5267	1807	2466	10230	1501	2116	8265	2004	1115	1941	2451	3399	2143	5759

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-20 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-20