COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-23 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-23

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-23

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)11-1010-2110-2511-0810-1911-1111-0310-31 --11-1010-1310-04 --11-0610-2610-1811-1011-1011-1011-0910-1510-1310-2810-1311-0910-2811-0210-29 --10-15 --11-1010-1311-01 --11-1111-0511-1010-0410-0110-2010-2911-0110-1110-18 --11-10 --11-0210-1311-1011-0810-2510-2810-3110-1811-0411-0410-1310-1610-2611-0811-0211-0110-0311-0311-0910-1811-1011-1011-0911-1211-0110-2511-0210-1511-01 --11-0211-0909-3011-0111-0911-1011-1011-0210-3011-02 -- --10-2010-1111-1011-0911-1211-0310-1109-2711-0511-11 -- --10-1310-3010-13 --11-09 --10-30 --10-2909-2710-2510-1511-0810-12 --10-2611-1010-2911-09 --11-0911-0911-09 --10-2711-0911-0711-1011-1011-0110-13 --11-1011-0910-1311-1211-1211-0110-1310-2709-2911-0510-0709-2711-0211-1211-1011-0111-0509-2911-10 --11-1010-2709-2210-26 --11-09 -- -- --11-0111-1011-0911-1010-2111-0309-2709-2611-04 --11-0710-1510-2511-0311-0811-09 --11-0911-0311-0411-0411-0811-0711-1109-3011-1011-1210-2211-0110-1111-1111-0211-0510-1311-12 --11-0611-0611-0110-1310-1311-0110-1811-1010-13 --10-1611-0911-1010-1610-1311-0911-0210-1611-0211-0211-1009-3011-0911-1009-2911-0111-1011-0511-0911-0910-2810-2710-3111-0211-0911-1011-0911-10 --11-0110-1311-0810-2511-0811-0311-0810-1311-1011-1110-1311-0110-3111-0510-1810-1311-0710-2610-2911-02 --11-10 --11-0110-1510-2911-0710-2411-0110-0511-1011-11 --11-10 -- --10-2511-0511-1010-1311-0911-0811-0510-2711-05 --11-0910-1910-1511-0210-18 --11-1010-3011-0510-3110-0511-0910-2410-1310-1810-1511-1011-0511-0310-0411-01 --11-1111-0210-1911-0111-0210-1311-1010-06
Peak daily increment 8 27 79 41 61 27 41 19 102 194 28 35 76 72 41 102 618 62 167 99 53 236 52 131 21 432 53 27 72 313 79 38 33 57 70 158 138 47 47 51 40 50 135 34 27 34 123 141 53 23 15 63 33 21 21 64 19 291 138 21 29 98 30 53 55 25 163 32 257 56 250 118 16 42 28 39 111 30 217 76 30 16 27 111 45 24 55 75 27 20 41 123 71 23 27 32 71 31 56 45 61 64 70 15 75 42 145 47 41 97 53 24 79 26 60 17 55 35 28 31 279 48 354 152 71 85 542 249 14 54 59 58 529 94 8 14 605 59 29 10 35 89 77 24 33 55 391 84 20 52 160 26 49 113 86 120 34 56 88 134 30 611 71 41 252 47 64 64 77 82 101 40 94 42 38 42 43 18 196 23 65 202 42 30 68 18 8 17 237 228 81 29 185 36 35 435 112 82 93 22 19 24 64 138 11 27 46 72 42 26 72 36 76 89 73 43 61 35 33 117 83 57 19 184 126 192 30 31 154 51 66 179 46 19 14 87 21 19 23 24 46 9 119 139 22 18 24 247 160 76 133 58 26 22 19 28 27 8 91 35 21 25 61 329 90 32 39 137 23 139 36 14 31 47 67 42 130
Days since peak 13 33 29 15 35 12 20 23 13 41 50 17 28 36 13 13 13 14 39 41 26 41 14 26 21 25 39 13 41 22 12 18 13 50 53 34 25 22 43 36 13 21 41 13 15 29 26 23 36 19 19 41 38 28 15 21 22 51 20 14 36 13 13 14 11 22 29 21 39 22 21 14 54 22 14 13 13 21 24 21 34 43 13 14 11 20 43 57 18 12 41 24 41 14 24 25 57 29 39 15 42 28 13 25 14 14 14 14 27 14 16 13 13 22 41 13 14 41 11 11 22 41 27 55 18 47 57 21 11 13 22 18 55 13 13 27 62 28 14 22 13 14 13 33 20 57 58 19 16 39 29 20 15 14 14 20 19 19 15 16 12 54 13 11 32 22 43 12 21 18 41 11 17 17 22 41 41 22 36 13 41 38 14 13 38 41 14 21 38 21 21 13 54 14 13 55 22 13 18 14 14 26 27 23 21 14 13 14 13 22 41 15 29 15 20 15 41 13 12 41 22 23 18 36 41 16 28 25 21 13 22 39 25 16 30 22 49 13 12 13 29 18 13 41 14 15 18 27 18 14 35 39 21 36 13 24 18 23 49 14 30 41 36 39 13 18 20 50 22 12 21 35 22 21 41 13 48
Last total 552 1388 3313 1298 3398 2190 2545 964 4171 6584 10158 1942 3281 2290 3458 3499 3168 4473 38333 2955 9320 5059 2400 14674 1796 6970 1365 28187 1439 1569 6084 1420 3963 14720 1285 4736 2210 1708 3224 4413 9443 7682 1821 3383 2478 2420 2562 1363 3418 6141 2239 1472 2201 8624 8729 2587 1195 1047 3548 2132 1156 1172 3639 933 18529 8240 1247 1427 5750 1882 3160 2282 1209 7488 1189 11377 3106 1946 9833 7493 603 1444 1449 1936 3226 1552 9393 3379 2076 1177 1598 893 1855 5801 2293 1223 2806 2546 1305 1187 1623 765 2382 7555 3330 2006 952 2167 1549 4072 2010 4556 1660 3594 1944 4057 1205 3483 4637 928 3746 647 1650 5986 2379 1747 2303 5837 2422 1502 5179 1947 3680 1679 942 3397 2470 1785 1951 9919 3024 18401 7688 5306 4024 34775 16894 925 4008 2521 2778 23680 5450 2498 471 893 30327 2831 5147 1066 832 3161 649 779 1780 5418 3521 1210 1782 2775 15341 4220 6616 786 2783 4947 1424 1949 4497 595 3861 6494 1682 2194 5317 8065 1583 16561 3211 2336 14430 3218 4562 4122 3873 4213 6995 2538 6876 4388 1889 2003 1948 2791 948 12254 963 3127 766 10571 1973 1545 3221 1506 454 694 13076 11703 2788 1436 10346 2026 1442 24680 5539 3569 5678 1402 1160 1337 2880 5881 571 1731 2211 2054 1364 1411 1694 3427 1352 3396 5492 3797 2324 4636 1667 1873 7447 3694 2443 1085 10257 7283 8661 1931 1316 10702 1270 3080 3853 3705 10179 2087 1084 925 3977 1560 1461 926 3576 1424 2797 1556 1869 349 6247 8530 1226 1064 1476 13054 8893 4928 5123 7997 2980 1873 1594 1572 1317 1678 1606 383 4518 1583 1403 1505 3863 16044 4795 1653 2290 9863 1453 2004 7608 1827 1061 1798 2284 3251 1946 5548
Last daily increment 3 12 38 17 35 35 50 17 88 83 88 11 85 19 48 25 29 100 439 27 66 33 31 119 76 62 17 240 37 13 68 18 31 139 27 75 33 30 24 37 77 82 20 48 42 87 28 32 25 21 33 22 29 65 60 25 23 9 43 22 5 15 36 4 168 124 10 13 71 16 47 55 14 79 16 96 33 75 177 112 9 54 21 37 87 19 141 52 28 21 10 4 14 96 41 13 30 33 10 18 46 14 16 54 35 23 10 83 9 93 31 33 13 30 36 53 32 37 69 10 29 13 23 106 20 31 24 84 18 17 74 16 38 28 6 44 26 23 23 165 44 204 43 55 31 254 193 12 59 23 68 98 75 96 8 12 173 26 205 13 39 45 7 3 22 44 49 14 7 37 109 53 116 17 25 85 28 48 73 10 75 100 21 24 53 106 21 89 54 43 122 35 51 70 38 58 57 22 143 39 31 17 15 27 10 151 18 29 24 81 27 22 24 9 2 13 66 138 29 21 63 23 16 161 100 86 64 18 23 14 37 93 3 21 32 17 27 24 10 43 24 53 54 32 29 59 19 25 50 57 28 10 84 63 165 20 24 80 16 30 190 48 67 32 12 11 66 14 16 11 131 21 60 45 18 12 125 61 17 15 15 138 128 97 73 57 29 17 17 47 12 15 12 6 26 40 11 9 40 117 65 12 29 34 44 27 113 14 8 18 55 19 31 31
Last week 29 69 253 85 233 147 217 90 450 464 485 50 426 117 262 171 173 459 2866 226 377 201 170 673 256 397 72 1385 143 71 490 108 167 917 96 354 152 163 137 234 411 481 90 198 201 301 166 136 181 254 162 107 137 446 384 114 84 52 181 109 52 80 240 33 1015 609 63 78 469 140 235 253 84 482 92 550 174 305 1007 565 63 163 112 157 381 92 702 315 134 92 84 38 100 556 232 94 150 134 89 96 186 77 124 400 161 184 82 353 66 402 150 167 94 223 199 297 164 159 340 52 219 74 157 661 159 132 115 459 143 95 405 94 226 189 50 241 150 117 133 838 220 1197 176 348 124 1515 1039 63 247 198 269 499 515 440 38 58 1030 197 1074 90 126 265 56 37 147 293 332 62 83 212 638 371 629 82 175 439 109 195 421 77 350 461 152 198 374 563 147 493 303 189 651 188 247 348 222 300 306 168 776 280 155 117 97 152 59 605 94 174 116 456 172 111 148 66 26 52 423 958 200 109 288 131 136 944 421 388 413 88 79 73 207 441 35 105 199 98 143 150 73 189 114 260 388 187 176 276 134 134 220 324 178 71 450 447 809 110 108 544 118 218 752 266 373 187 69 70 338 69 77 91 565 125 311 221 110 48 579 299 82 62 77 858 691 503 285 294 174 100 91 188 87 119 91 37 139 167 53 73 229 715 381 92 165 256 153 162 691 104 42 113 206 120 174 199
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 68 29 75 75 68 27
Low between peaks 27 2 1 1 6 16 7 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-24 to 2020-11-30

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-23 552 1388 3313 1298 3398 2190 2545 964 4171 6584 10158 1942 3281 2290 3458 3499 3168 4473 38333 2955 9320 5059 2400 14674 1796 6970 1365 28187 1439 1569 6084 1420 3963 14720 1285 4736 2210 1708 3224 4413 9443 7682 1821 3383 2478 2420 2562 1363 3418 6141 2239 1472 2201 8624 8729 2587 1195 1047 3548 2132 1156 1172 3639 933 18529 8240 1247 1427 5750 1882 3160 2282 1209 7488 1189 11377 3106 1946 9833 7493 603 1444 1449 1936 3226 1552 9393 3379 2076 1177 1598 893 1855 5801 2293 1223 2806 2546 1305 1187 1623 765 2382 7555 3330 2006 952 2167 1549 4072 2010 4556 1660 3594 1944 4057 1205 3483 4637 928 3746 647 1650 5986 2379 1747 2303 5837 2422 1502 5179 1947 3680 1679 942 3397 2470 1785 1951 9919 3024 18401 7688 5306 4024 34775 16894 925 4008 2521 2778 23680 5450 2498 471 893 30327 2831 5147 1066 832 3161 649 779 1780 5418 3521 1210 1782 2775 15341 4220 6616 786 2783 4947 1424 1949 4497 595 3861 6494 1682 2194 5317 8065 1583 16561 3211 2336 14430 3218 4562 4122 3873 4213 6995 2538 6876 4388 1889 2003 1948 2791 948 12254 963 3127 766 10571 1973 1545 3221 1506 454 694 13076 11703 2788 1436 10346 2026 1442 24680 5539 3569 5678 1402 1160 1337 2880 5881 571 1731 2211 2054 1364 1411 1694 3427 1352 3396 5492 3797 2324 4636 1667 1873 7447 3694 2443 1085 10257 7283 8661 1931 1316 10702 1270 3080 3853 3705 10179 2087 1084 925 3977 1560 1461 926 3576 1424 2797 1556 1869 349 6247 8530 1226 1064 1476 13054 8893 4928 5123 7997 2980 1873 1594 1572 1317 1678 1606 383 4518 1583 1403 1505 3863 16044 4795 1653 2290 9863 1453 2004 7608 1827 1061 1798 2284 3251 1946 5548
2020-11-24 559 1406 3463 1310 3493 2213 2595 981 4267 6728 10240 1953 3329 2359 3593 3533 3225 4582 39250 3065 9349 5103 2437 14810 1839 7281 1382 28420 1486 1587 6213 1463 4006 14930 1367 4802 2272 1746 3238 4493 9539 7945 1842 3453 2554 2500 2637 1386 3514 6208 2269 1516 2227 8861 8792 2596 1240 1076 3625 2153 1160 1188 3756 945 19070 8442 1290 1444 5828 1907 3242 2346 1228 7598 1212 11440 3216 2021 10210 7652 613 1473 1487 1989 3420 1573 9810 3504 2102 1194 1615 925 1877 5893 2334 1243 2913 2572 1358 1203 1663 779 2439 7795 3417 2040 970 2240 1567 4147 2037 4643 1680 3666 1980 4124 1228 3497 4732 939 3883 652 1713 6116 2452 1769 2405 5978 2533 1542 5270 1967 3760 1682 972 3444 2511 1809 1996 10480 3065 18560 7728 5399 4048 35110 17300 937 4080 2634 2831 23820 5532 2580 478 914 31040 2936 5371 1087 851 3207 660 787 1809 5602 3566 1224 1857 2830 15690 4351 6726 803 2816 5042 1446 2025 4664 599 3994 6676 1735 2296 5459 8264 1608 16710 3268 2373 14500 3255 4647 4178 4031 4359 7063 2593 6999 4569 1969 2024 1955 2852 962 12560 990 3159 788 10640 2027 1600 3262 1521 460 712 13180 12090 2954 1488 10380 2095 1468 24850 5707 3636 5823 1441 1177 1385 2994 5956 579 1753 2272 2079 1397 1440 1750 3460 1407 3538 5612 3850 2360 4698 1727 1900 7598 3827 2554 1101 10290 7504 8984 1954 1372 10990 1289 3157 4164 3804 10210 2163 1121 942 4126 1578 1477 934 3745 1446 2895 1612 1898 357 6395 8614 1244 1079 1494 13180 9155 5009 5188 8077 3084 1920 1612 1646 1344 1727 1658 390 4526 1615 1417 1531 3959 16180 4872 1724 2349 10030 1466 2021 7796 1853 1086 1822 2324 3261 2008 5559
2020-11-25 565 1423 3527 1321 3537 2235 2640 998 4362 6811 10310 1965 3409 2384 3646 3539 3268 4678 39850 3122 9376 5147 2474 14890 1878 7430 1398 28630 1519 1604 6317 1487 4050 14980 1407 4868 2305 1777 3245 4539 9589 8056 1863 3496 2596 2579 2673 1409 3555 6277 2299 1534 2253 8963 8850 2605 1258 1084 3656 2173 1164 1203 3806 957 19300 8553 1310 1462 5920 1933 3294 2404 1248 7710 1225 11490 3256 2093 10410 7759 622 1502 1512 2032 3504 1594 9950 3571 2128 1211 1632 935 1899 5982 2388 1263 2942 2598 1384 1219 1702 793 2473 7884 3449 2075 989 2314 1585 4219 2063 4667 1701 3716 2016 4183 1252 3510 4799 950 3932 658 1747 6234 2487 1789 2440 6064 2571 1563 5350 1988 3805 1706 990 3492 2538 1833 2021 10670 3106 18710 7758 5470 4071 35370 17520 949 4125 2689 2883 23860 5634 2671 485 928 31350 2982 5601 1110 869 3253 670 795 1838 5667 3604 1237 1884 2873 15850 4427 6864 821 2849 5140 1467 2060 4754 607 4061 6771 1760 2345 5536 8388 1633 16860 3322 2409 14560 3292 4690 4234 4082 4426 7117 2625 7119 4651 1999 2045 1962 2885 976 12660 1015 3192 809 10710 2068 1624 3282 1535 466 720 13210 12290 3009 1521 10410 2125 1494 24950 5787 3701 5907 1468 1193 1404 3043 6024 588 1776 2320 2100 1412 1468 1767 3494 1437 3590 5700 3851 2397 4749 1757 1926 7640 3896 2598 1117 10320 7617 9135 1976 1398 11110 1308 3208 4434 3854 10240 2203 1136 954 4188 1590 1493 939 3868 1468 2961 1667 1928 365 6518 8654 1261 1093 1513 13230 9286 5090 5253 8123 3117 1940 1629 1692 1368 1749 1675 396 4535 1647 1431 1554 3998 16300 4950 1744 2385 10090 1487 2040 7941 1879 1096 1846 2364 3269 2047 5570
2020-11-26 572 1441 3562 1333 3575 2257 2670 1015 4444 6910 10380 1976 3500 2406 3694 3539 3291 4766 40380 3162 9404 5189 2511 14960 1919 7564 1415 28830 1540 1621 6418 1509 4094 15010 1443 4931 2329 1806 3245 4593 9629 8139 1884 3528 2630 2660 2712 1432 3581 6344 2328 1557 2278 9038 8909 2614 1270 1100 3684 2194 1168 1218 3857 969 19470 8657 1320 1479 5995 1958 3338 2462 1267 7819 1246 11520 3292 2167 10600 7864 631 1531 1529 2056 3601 1615 10100 3627 2154 1227 1649 940 1920 6070 2420 1282 2968 2623 1398 1235 1742 807 2493 7954 3467 2108 1007 2388 1602 4288 2089 4699 1721 3758 2050 4232 1276 3524 4858 961 3980 663 1787 6358 2521 1810 2471 6146 2599 1581 5429 2007 3845 1732 1004 3538 2568 1857 2047 10840 3146 18850 7783 5530 4095 35570 17700 961 4172 2725 2935 23910 5735 2767 491 935 31650 3017 5815 1131 887 3298 680 803 1866 5718 3633 1251 1899 2903 15970 4495 6965 838 2880 5235 1488 2094 4819 616 4129 6859 1787 2386 5600 8476 1658 17000 3376 2444 14620 3328 4731 4289 4126 4492 7176 2650 7238 4711 2033 2066 1969 2910 990 12760 1039 3224 829 10780 2099 1646 3304 1549 472 728 13240 12480 3057 1539 10440 2145 1518 25050 5863 3765 5986 1482 1210 1421 3072 6078 596 1798 2360 2121 1430 1496 1777 3527 1456 3627 5763 3854 2432 4798 1788 1952 7671 3967 2634 1133 10360 7698 9298 1999 1417 11210 1327 3247 4741 3900 10270 2233 1143 964 4246 1609 1509 948 3999 1490 3017 1723 1956 373 6614 8683 1278 1108 1531 13260 9412 5170 5315 8168 3144 1961 1646 1731 1385 1773 1696 402 4545 1678 1444 1566 4039 16420 5025 1762 2414 10130 1509 2057 8070 1906 1103 1869 2403 3278 2083 5582
2020-11-27 579 1459 3612 1345 3616 2279 2702 1031 4509 6993 10450 1988 3571 2433 3739 3547 3320 4852 40900 3203 9430 5233 2548 15040 1957 7698 1431 29030 1572 1639 6498 1533 4138 15070 1496 4995 2359 1832 3246 4631 9704 8229 1905 3561 2667 2743 2736 1454 3613 6413 2357 1579 2303 9107 8967 2622 1284 1110 3714 2214 1171 1234 3908 981 19670 8778 1331 1496 6083 1983 3371 2507 1286 7931 1263 11590 3322 2241 10780 7972 641 1560 1551 2076 3691 1635 10220 3690 2180 1243 1667 944 1942 6157 2466 1302 3003 2648 1418 1251 1782 821 2514 8028 3492 2141 1026 2465 1620 4356 2116 4724 1742 3801 2085 4283 1301 3536 4918 973 4034 669 1818 6476 2558 1830 2512 6230 2623 1600 5491 2028 3877 1742 1014 3585 2596 1881 2070 11000 3186 18980 7812 5596 4117 35860 17880 973 4221 2768 2987 24010 5814 2871 498 947 32000 3053 6047 1153 904 3343 690 811 1894 5776 3676 1264 1921 2939 16080 4566 7061 855 2912 5332 1510 2128 4921 624 4194 6947 1822 2424 5667 8580 1683 17140 3430 2480 14680 3364 4780 4344 4176 4544 7210 2686 7356 4773 2061 2087 1976 2936 1004 12870 1063 3256 849 10850 2138 1665 3313 1564 478 733 13240 12670 3095 1555 10500 2172 1543 25170 5933 3828 6059 1496 1226 1433 3110 6140 604 1820 2390 2140 1450 1524 1796 3559 1486 3674 5826 3861 2468 4847 1811 1978 7710 4022 2669 1149 10390 7777 9441 2021 1435 11310 1345 3288 4951 3953 10290 2266 1160 975 4310 1618 1525 958 4137 1511 3087 1779 1986 380 6726 8756 1296 1123 1550 13310 9533 5249 5378 8197 3176 1977 1663 1779 1396 1791 1717 409 4554 1709 1458 1577 4078 16540 5102 1782 2436 10180 1531 2075 8195 1933 1108 1893 2443 3287 2110 5593
2020-11-28 585 1476 3643 1356 3649 2301 2730 1048 4569 7045 10520 1999 3606 2450 3776 3553 3345 4911 41290 3236 9456 5277 2585 15140 1996 7817 1447 29230 1596 1656 6563 1543 4182 15100 1526 5060 2379 1857 3259 4660 9783 8304 1926 3579 2692 2829 2756 1476 3636 6482 2386 1591 2329 9166 9025 2631 1299 1116 3740 2235 1175 1249 3939 994 19810 8864 1341 1513 6157 2009 3403 2546 1306 8044 1276 11630 3347 2317 10950 8043 650 1589 1570 2101 3740 1656 10330 3738 2205 1260 1684 952 1965 6244 2492 1323 3024 2673 1428 1267 1822 835 2527 8091 3519 2175 1045 2545 1638 4423 2142 4745 1762 3827 2120 4319 1326 3548 4956 984 4065 675 1842 6591 2577 1850 2553 6287 2649 1610 5541 2048 3909 1772 1019 3632 2612 1905 2088 11130 3226 19110 7831 5642 4140 36180 18030 985 4248 2796 3040 24110 5869 2961 505 954 32320 3088 6268 1176 922 3388 700 819 1923 5830 3707 1277 1930 2965 16170 4620 7131 873 2944 5431 1531 2156 4969 647 4244 7014 1844 2458 5720 8651 1708 17280 3484 2515 14730 3401 4816 4399 4219 4588 7239 2711 7474 4808 2082 2108 1982 2950 1018 12960 1087 3288 870 10910 2160 1682 3332 1578 485 739 13290 12800 3129 1569 10540 2189 1569 25310 5985 3891 6113 1505 1242 1441 3143 6216 613 1842 2419 2159 1470 1552 1807 3592 1501 3713 5890 3868 2505 4879 1827 2004 7738 4067 2693 1165 10420 7843 9548 2044 1453 11390 1364 3323 5136 3994 10320 2299 1169 991 4365 1624 1541 966 4246 1532 3137 1838 2017 388 6796 8793 1313 1137 1569 13360 9632 5329 5442 8227 3199 1991 1680 1806 1409 1807 1731 415 4563 1741 1472 1583 4106 16660 5179 1800 2462 10210 1552 2093 8285 1960 1116 1917 2482 3295 2135 5604
2020-11-29 592 1494 3676 1368 3678 2323 2756 1066 4609 7105 10590 2011 3662 2466 3795 3553 3374 4964 41590 3275 9482 5321 2623 15180 2035 7908 1464 29420 1612 1674 6626 1554 4226 15100 1559 5124 2397 1876 3259 4687 9804 8361 1947 3608 2710 2917 2769 1499 3668 6552 2416 1607 2354 9215 9082 2640 1306 1120 3761 2255 1178 1264 3963 1006 19940 8940 1347 1531 6211 2035 3436 2588 1326 8157 1284 11630 3361 2397 11070 8113 659 1618 1582 2125 3777 1678 10420 3776 2231 1276 1702 957 1987 6332 2517 1343 3038 2699 1441 1283 1864 849 2543 8123 3531 2209 1065 2627 1657 4490 2169 4770 1783 3849 2156 4354 1352 3561 4997 995 4096 681 1858 6676 2597 1871 2578 6351 2672 1623 5591 2068 3941 1792 1019 3680 2634 1929 2103 11210 3267 19250 7843 5676 4163 36330 18160 997 4271 2820 3092 24130 5944 3018 512 956 32550 3100 6459 1199 940 3434 710 827 1952 5860 3732 1291 1938 2993 16240 4663 7220 890 2977 5530 1553 2185 5033 650 4282 7058 1863 2479 5776 8733 1733 17420 3537 2551 14790 3438 4834 4455 4239 4615 7273 2730 7594 4839 2098 2128 1989 2967 1032 13000 1110 3321 890 10980 2182 1699 3336 1592 491 743 13300 12920 3151 1579 10550 2209 1594 25370 6028 3955 6162 1510 1259 1448 3165 6247 622 1865 2440 2179 1475 1581 1815 3625 1513 3743 5940 3868 2541 4905 1842 2030 7752 4094 2709 1181 10450 7892 9654 2066 1467 11450 1382 3348 5316 4018 10350 2323 1180 998 4408 1631 1557 969 4342 1554 3178 1899 2047 396 6861 8815 1331 1152 1587 13360 9729 5410 5505 8242 3220 2004 1697 1821 1417 1822 1740 422 4572 1773 1486 1584 4134 16780 5257 1812 2482 10230 1574 2111 8360 1987 1117 1941 2522 3303 2154 5616
2020-11-30 599 1512 3733 1380 3723 2345 2807 1083 4711 7207 10660 2022 3754 2492 3850 3587 3407 5060 42150 3324 9508 5365 2661 15310 2074 7984 1481 29620 1647 1692 6713 1577 4271 15220 1578 5190 2435 1909 3282 4729 9887 8461 1968 3659 2757 3008 2802 1522 3703 6623 2446 1633 2379 9302 9140 2648 1330 1130 3804 2276 1182 1279 4011 1019 20150 9072 1364 1548 6281 2061 3488 2641 1346 8271 1302 11750 3406 2479 11280 8234 669 1647 1604 2163 3883 1699 10590 3842 2257 1293 1719 965 2009 6420 2561 1363 3076 2724 1459 1299 1907 863 2567 8201 3575 2243 1084 2712 1675 4557 2196 4810 1804 3890 2191 4410 1378 3573 5068 1007 4139 687 1889 6791 2625 1891 2600 6442 2712 1645 5674 2089 3988 1818 1033 3728 2663 1954 2132 11440 3307 19380 7886 5743 4186 36590 18380 1009 4337 2865 3145 24240 6028 3127 519 968 32730 3142 6667 1222 958 3480 720 835 1982 5924 3791 1304 1954 3033 16380 4738 7336 908 3009 5630 1574 2245 5119 660 4361 7162 1889 2525 5844 8848 1758 17560 3592 2587 14850 3475 4883 4511 4289 4688 7338 2758 7714 4896 2135 2149 1996 2999 1047 13160 1134 3353 911 11040 2212 1723 3362 1607 497 756 13380 13110 3204 1606 10620 2240 1619 25530 6130 4020 6243 1533 1275 1467 3214 6348 630 1888 2477 2198 1506 1609 1834 3659 1544 3808 6004 3905 2578 4967 1870 2056 7811 4168 2751 1198 10480 7981 9843 2089 1491 11570 1401 3387 5532 4073 10370 2360 1197 1009 4488 1645 1573 985 4475 1575 3252 1961 2078 404 6994 8873 1349 1167 1606 13530 9871 5491 5569 8305 3258 2026 1715 1877 1432 1843 1758 429 4581 1805 1500 1600 4182 16900 5336 1833 2517 10280 1596 2130 8484 2015 1130 1965 2563 3312 2193 5627

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-24 to 2020-11-30

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-23 552 1388 3313 1298 3398 2190 2545 964 4171 6584 10158 1942 3281 2290 3458 3499 3168 4473 38333 2955 9320 5059 2400 14674 1796 6970 1365 28187 1439 1569 6084 1420 3963 14720 1285 4736 2210 1708 3224 4413 9443 7682 1821 3383 2478 2420 2562 1363 3418 6141 2239 1472 2201 8624 8729 2587 1195 1047 3548 2132 1156 1172 3639 933 18529 8240 1247 1427 5750 1882 3160 2282 1209 7488 1189 11377 3106 1946 9833 7493 603 1444 1449 1936 3226 1552 9393 3379 2076 1177 1598 893 1855 5801 2293 1223 2806 2546 1305 1187 1623 765 2382 7555 3330 2006 952 2167 1549 4072 2010 4556 1660 3594 1944 4057 1205 3483 4637 928 3746 647 1650 5986 2379 1747 2303 5837 2422 1502 5179 1947 3680 1679 942 3397 2470 1785 1951 9919 3024 18401 7688 5306 4024 34775 16894 925 4008 2521 2778 23680 5450 2498 471 893 30327 2831 5147 1066 832 3161 649 779 1780 5418 3521 1210 1782 2775 15341 4220 6616 786 2783 4947 1424 1949 4497 595 3861 6494 1682 2194 5317 8065 1583 16561 3211 2336 14430 3218 4562 4122 3873 4213 6995 2538 6876 4388 1889 2003 1948 2791 948 12254 963 3127 766 10571 1973 1545 3221 1506 454 694 13076 11703 2788 1436 10346 2026 1442 24680 5539 3569 5678 1402 1160 1337 2880 5881 571 1731 2211 2054 1364 1411 1694 3427 1352 3396 5492 3797 2324 4636 1667 1873 7447 3694 2443 1085 10257 7283 8661 1931 1316 10702 1270 3080 3853 3705 10179 2087 1084 925 3977 1560 1461 926 3576 1424 2797 1556 1869 349 6247 8530 1226 1064 1476 13054 8893 4928 5123 7997 2980 1873 1594 1572 1317 1678 1606 383 4518 1583 1403 1505 3863 16044 4795 1653 2290 9863 1453 2004 7608 1827 1061 1798 2284 3251 1946 5548
2020-11-24 555 1403 3358 1312 3451 2215 2585 979 4261 6668 10230 1952 3351 2318 3508 3515 3201 4561 38880 3002 9372 5091 2437 14770 1846 7042 1378 28400 1470 1581 6189 1440 3989 14840 1311 4798 2234 1734 3241 4455 9508 7773 1839 3413 2513 2481 2612 1386 3456 6186 2265 1494 2219 8717 8792 2603 1213 1057 3587 2150 1161 1188 3686 940 18750 8352 1262 1441 5827 1903 3207 2326 1219 7556 1206 11470 3137 2004 10020 7579 613 1471 1467 1969 3316 1569 9530 3439 2101 1197 1611 900 1873 5893 2334 1238 2843 2569 1324 1202 1656 779 2407 7633 3360 2038 966 2233 1561 4149 2033 4591 1675 3631 1979 4105 1234 3507 4715 937 3796 659 1677 6105 2419 1770 2329 5921 2452 1522 5253 1963 3723 1706 949 3438 2498 1805 1975 10080 3066 18580 7721 5349 4044 35010 17100 935 4057 2557 2830 23760 5532 2568 477 904 30540 2865 5334 1080 855 3204 658 785 1805 5479 3575 1220 1801 2817 15480 4289 6736 801 2812 5007 1444 1988 4583 606 3924 6575 1708 2222 5388 8186 1608 16650 3267 2370 14510 3247 4605 4177 3928 4269 7049 2563 7011 4443 1920 2019 1962 2829 959 12370 981 3154 780 10650 2006 1576 3243 1519 457 706 13140 11920 2835 1459 10390 2057 1464 24820 5620 3642 5752 1416 1175 1350 2922 5946 577 1749 2240 2072 1386 1435 1710 3461 1374 3463 5561 3828 2355 4673 1691 1898 7499 3752 2478 1097 10330 7364 8824 1950 1341 10800 1292 3119 4015 3749 10240 2124 1102 938 4044 1574 1475 939 3701 1447 2857 1593 1875 357 6343 8575 1245 1078 1490 13160 9024 5013 5181 8042 3013 1895 1610 1616 1333 1699 1622 388 4536 1612 1410 1518 3907 16140 4861 1681 2315 9910 1476 2025 7760 1844 1068 1809 2320 3266 1972 5580
2020-11-25 562 1421 3412 1329 3497 2239 2624 996 4356 6750 10310 1962 3430 2344 3558 3551 3238 4652 39460 3057 9436 5131 2467 14890 1892 7131 1393 28650 1494 1599 6293 1465 4030 15030 1327 4868 2265 1763 3263 4500 9577 7880 1862 3453 2551 2547 2647 1410 3494 6250 2294 1516 2238 8817 8875 2626 1231 1067 3620 2170 1171 1204 3738 951 18970 8470 1281 1458 5913 1929 3255 2379 1238 7654 1222 11550 3177 2057 10220 7685 624 1497 1492 2004 3411 1586 9670 3508 2129 1216 1628 909 1896 5994 2382 1258 2874 2595 1347 1224 1687 794 2440 7718 3390 2076 986 2307 1576 4229 2056 4619 1694 3678 2018 4159 1261 3534 4776 948 3849 674 1712 6235 2455 1791 2351 6009 2492 1542 5331 1982 3768 1727 964 3486 2526 1830 2001 10260 3107 18820 7752 5421 4063 35280 17310 948 4103 2607 2882 23850 5624 2655 484 918 30740 2908 5547 1102 874 3254 668 793 1837 5545 3641 1231 1826 2860 15630 4362 6871 819 2842 5086 1465 2028 4673 616 3991 6670 1736 2268 5465 8303 1635 16730 3326 2407 14610 3281 4649 4239 3983 4337 7097 2596 7144 4514 1952 2039 1978 2863 973 12490 999 3185 800 10720 2042 1601 3271 1532 462 717 13230 12110 2882 1487 10430 2088 1492 24970 5695 3708 5836 1438 1192 1368 2970 6029 585 1771 2288 2099 1413 1466 1727 3493 1404 3514 5640 3868 2393 4722 1718 1924 7545 3813 2520 1113 10410 7470 8973 1971 1368 10920 1312 3166 4169 3798 10310 2163 1118 950 4110 1586 1491 956 3808 1469 2920 1637 1903 365 6456 8615 1264 1092 1506 13310 9158 5099 5243 8090 3048 1916 1627 1655 1353 1722 1641 394 4562 1643 1422 1539 3949 16250 4943 1701 2349 9970 1499 2053 7897 1869 1078 1833 2356 3283 2008 5614
2020-11-26 569 1440 3455 1347 3534 2262 2658 1013 4443 6846 10390 1972 3513 2367 3608 3579 3271 4738 40010 3107 9496 5171 2497 15000 1941 7212 1408 28900 1514 1617 6397 1489 4070 15210 1343 4938 2290 1791 3284 4552 9645 7978 1886 3485 2588 2614 2686 1432 3529 6311 2322 1540 2258 8897 8955 2648 1246 1080 3651 2189 1180 1220 3792 961 19170 8586 1296 1471 5999 1958 3302 2433 1259 7752 1240 11620 3216 2110 10420 7789 635 1522 1510 2036 3509 1602 9810 3570 2157 1232 1644 916 1920 6094 2420 1277 2904 2620 1368 1243 1718 810 2463 7799 3415 2113 1006 2375 1592 4309 2078 4651 1712 3722 2056 4208 1288 3563 4832 958 3904 689 1750 6371 2491 1813 2372 6096 2525 1561 5409 2001 3811 1753 978 3534 2555 1856 2027 10430 3150 19020 7783 5481 4080 35520 17490 962 4151 2651 2935 23950 5718 2743 491 926 30920 2946 5739 1125 892 3305 678 801 1868 5610 3706 1241 1849 2889 15770 4434 6973 837 2872 5169 1485 2067 4758 627 4060 6759 1766 2309 5535 8401 1663 16820 3383 2443 14710 3316 4690 4296 4038 4405 7147 2625 7275 4582 1985 2060 1994 2888 987 12590 1018 3215 819 10800 2075 1626 3298 1545 468 727 13320 12290 2921 1509 10480 2115 1519 25120 5770 3774 5918 1455 1209 1384 3008 6109 594 1794 2326 2125 1441 1497 1744 3525 1429 3554 5711 3911 2430 4769 1746 1951 7585 3874 2560 1130 10490 7565 9133 1991 1388 11030 1331 3210 4326 3847 10380 2196 1131 961 4172 1601 1508 976 3916 1492 2975 1680 1933 372 6547 8651 1282 1105 1519 13450 9293 5180 5300 8137 3081 1937 1644 1689 1371 1745 1661 401 4586 1674 1432 1551 3993 16360 5025 1722 2380 10020 1518 2081 8020 1893 1087 1856 2392 3300 2043 5647
2020-11-27 576 1459 3504 1365 3574 2285 2692 1031 4519 6932 10460 1981 3594 2395 3657 3619 3304 4824 40560 3159 9562 5211 2539 15120 1987 7290 1423 29150 1538 1634 6487 1515 4112 15390 1361 5009 2318 1818 3305 4595 9717 8078 1908 3516 2624 2683 2712 1456 3565 6375 2350 1563 2275 8970 9034 2672 1262 1090 3681 2209 1190 1237 3847 972 19380 8708 1312 1485 6088 1983 3346 2481 1278 7848 1256 11700 3248 2166 10620 7898 645 1547 1532 2068 3611 1623 9940 3637 2185 1245 1661 922 1944 6195 2466 1298 2939 2646 1390 1260 1749 823 2487 7881 3441 2152 1026 2443 1608 4385 2100 4678 1731 3766 2095 4258 1317 3599 4890 970 3961 704 1784 6491 2522 1835 2396 6184 2556 1580 5480 2020 3850 1770 990 3583 2584 1881 2051 10600 3192 19210 7809 5550 4100 35780 17670 975 4201 2698 2988 24060 5798 2837 499 938 31120 2984 5951 1148 911 3356 688 809 1901 5677 3776 1252 1873 2924 15920 4506 7075 856 2901 5250 1506 2108 4854 638 4125 6847 1798 2352 5607 8507 1690 16900 3443 2481 14800 3352 4736 4347 4094 4468 7186 2660 7410 4650 2017 2082 2010 2913 1001 12710 1037 3247 840 10880 2113 1650 3321 1559 475 735 13390 12470 2963 1530 10540 2145 1548 25280 5844 3842 5995 1472 1226 1399 3048 6189 602 1816 2355 2152 1473 1526 1763 3557 1458 3595 5782 3952 2469 4816 1772 1979 7628 3928 2598 1147 10560 7658 9284 2012 1409 11140 1348 3255 4485 3898 10450 2228 1148 972 4240 1611 1524 996 4032 1514 3042 1724 1959 380 6654 8697 1301 1120 1536 13580 9426 5267 5362 8177 3115 1955 1660 1725 1385 1766 1685 407 4609 1706 1444 1563 4036 16480 5109 1743 2406 10070 1536 2107 8142 1919 1095 1877 2429 3317 2074 5683
2020-11-28 583 1478 3546 1380 3609 2309 2726 1049 4589 7008 10540 1990 3673 2419 3703 3647 3337 4890 41070 3210 9614 5250 2565 15220 2037 7372 1437 29410 1558 1656 6571 1536 4150 15570 1376 5081 2342 1851 3327 4632 9791 8171 1939 3538 2655 2752 2734 1478 3598 6438 2380 1584 2292 9056 9104 2693 1278 1100 3706 2228 1198 1253 3896 983 19560 8822 1327 1503 6172 2008 3391 2528 1295 7938 1272 11760 3283 2220 10820 7986 654 1569 1553 2100 3724 1638 10070 3698 2213 1262 1676 930 1969 6293 2501 1314 2965 2672 1410 1275 1781 835 2505 7958 3466 2191 1046 2507 1624 4457 2123 4706 1749 3806 2128 4303 1346 3625 4929 980 4012 719 1814 6612 2555 1857 2424 6259 2590 1594 5543 2039 3890 1794 1001 3632 2611 1907 2075 10740 3235 19400 7827 5600 4114 36120 17860 988 4240 2740 3042 24150 5860 2909 505 946 31300 3026 6140 1171 931 3408 698 817 1933 5742 3842 1262 1894 2952 16060 4573 7152 875 2930 5324 1527 2147 4938 656 4184 6941 1827 2400 5676 8601 1719 16990 3504 2517 14900 3386 4780 4396 4150 4539 7224 2690 7526 4711 2048 2107 2026 2926 1015 12800 1056 3278 856 10950 2145 1672 3346 1574 480 746 13460 12620 3018 1549 10580 2172 1576 25430 5912 3906 6065 1487 1242 1415 3087 6269 611 1840 2390 2179 1505 1557 1779 3587 1482 3638 5853 3990 2507 4848 1796 2006 7662 3982 2631 1164 10640 7746 9411 2032 1430 11240 1368 3304 4632 3950 10520 2264 1163 985 4309 1620 1541 1016 4140 1537 3095 1775 1979 388 6733 8732 1319 1135 1554 13690 9550 5350 5428 8218 3145 1974 1677 1748 1400 1787 1703 413 4630 1738 1454 1570 4074 16570 5193 1763 2434 10100 1558 2128 8244 1945 1104 1897 2464 3334 2101 5717
2020-11-29 589 1498 3601 1398 3638 2333 2759 1067 4643 7087 10620 1999 3756 2446 3749 3692 3372 4959 41560 3264 9657 5289 2591 15320 2085 7466 1453 29660 1573 1674 6638 1559 4192 15780 1391 5154 2371 1877 3348 4671 9858 8281 1964 3570 2692 2824 2757 1495 3635 6501 2407 1610 2308 9134 9202 2716 1295 1109 3738 2248 1205 1269 3946 994 19750 8936 1343 1516 6246 2036 3437 2581 1314 8035 1288 11820 3323 2275 11010 8080 663 1601 1575 2134 3813 1654 10210 3760 2242 1277 1691 940 1994 6396 2537 1334 2999 2699 1432 1290 1813 849 2528 8033 3497 2230 1067 2573 1640 4533 2145 4740 1769 3844 2162 4348 1377 3653 4973 990 4065 735 1847 6705 2592 1880 2446 6353 2628 1611 5610 2059 3933 1812 1012 3682 2639 1934 2095 10910 3279 19620 7847 5644 4128 36390 18050 1002 4277 2788 3098 24230 5931 2972 512 952 31480 3061 6321 1195 950 3461 705 825 1967 5810 3910 1273 1916 2979 16200 4636 7241 894 2960 5399 1548 2192 5029 665 4244 7024 1855 2437 5746 8705 1747 17070 3560 2555 15000 3421 4806 4448 4205 4596 7267 2719 7648 4775 2078 2127 2043 2945 1030 12880 1076 3310 877 11020 2178 1696 3370 1588 487 757 13520 12750 3049 1569 10640 2203 1606 25570 5982 3973 6141 1504 1262 1428 3119 6369 620 1863 2424 2206 1536 1590 1796 3617 1514 3683 5923 4048 2547 4883 1821 2034 7696 4034 2670 1181 10710 7845 9560 2052 1449 11360 1387 3348 4783 3994 10590 2300 1178 993 4369 1630 1558 1034 4236 1561 3143 1825 2019 396 6809 8761 1338 1148 1572 13850 9690 5429 5481 8260 3177 1994 1694 1767 1414 1809 1717 419 4651 1770 1462 1576 4114 16660 5279 1785 2465 10150 1574 2153 8333 1973 1111 1919 2500 3352 2141 5751
2020-11-30 600 1518 3670 1430 3697 2357 2803 1085 4762 7213 10700 2009 3847 2481 3811 3768 3409 5061 42220 3327 9747 5340 2630 15460 2136 7560 1472 29920 1604 1695 6760 1588 4257 16100 1404 5229 2418 1911 3380 4727 9934 8412 1991 3640 2739 2897 2800 1528 3679 6586 2437 1637 2327 9259 9305 2750 1317 1123 3787 2269 1219 1285 4011 1006 20070 9078 1366 1540 6333 2065 3491 2640 1342 8171 1306 11910 3382 2337 11260 8233 674 1632 1606 2169 3936 1677 10400 3844 2271 1301 1709 951 2019 6502 2585 1363 3063 2725 1458 1312 1846 872 2561 8136 3539 2271 1089 2669 1656 4633 2168 4785 1788 3896 2202 4403 1407 3714 5051 1002 4131 751 1888 6869 2638 1902 2472 6457 2694 1641 5701 2079 3991 1837 1031 3732 2670 1960 2134 11190 3323 19880 7878 5747 4151 36730 18340 1016 4344 2851 3154 24360 6029 3080 521 965 31660 3117 6580 1219 971 3515 719 833 2000 5897 3990 1283 1946 3017 16350 4727 7389 914 2991 5519 1574 2249 5133 679 4339 7142 1890 2505 5834 8831 1776 17160 3627 2596 15100 3462 4857 4514 4264 4685 7321 2760 7793 4859 2119 2161 2059 2987 1045 13050 1096 3342 907 11110 2214 1727 3404 1603 495 773 13630 13010 3118 1604 10710 2244 1636 25740 6077 4040 6243 1528 1282 1454 3182 6473 628 1887 2479 2234 1596 1628 1823 3654 1552 3757 6003 4119 2587 4952 1853 2063 7766 4112 2726 1199 10800 7967 9773 2076 1478 11510 1408 3396 4951 4054 10670 2346 1198 1004 4457 1643 1575 1060 4366 1585 3233 1880 2071 405 6966 8815 1359 1165 1590 14090 9856 5536 5561 8319 3226 2020 1711 1819 1434 1834 1749 426 4692 1804 1483 1596 4169 16770 5365 1819 2508 10230 1596 2192 8473 2004 1126 1951 2543 3370 2188 5787

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.