COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-23

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	11-10	10-21	10-25	11-08	10-19	11-11	11-03	10-31	--	11-10	10-13	10-04	--	11-06	10-26	10-18	11-10	11-10	11-10	11-09	10-15	10-13	10-28	10-13	11-09	10-28	11-02	10-29	--	10-15	--	11-10	10-13	11-01	--	11-11	11-05	11-10	10-04	10-01	10-20	10-29	11-01	10-11	10-18	--	11-10	--	11-02	10-13	11-10	11-08	10-25	10-28	10-31	10-18	11-04	11-04	10-13	10-16	10-26	11-08	11-02	11-01	10-03	11-03	11-09	10-18	11-10	11-10	11-09	11-12	11-01	10-25	11-02	10-15	11-01	--	11-02	11-09	09-30	11-01	11-09	11-10	11-10	11-02	10-30	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-11	11-10	11-09	11-12	11-03	10-11	09-27	11-05	11-11	--	--	10-13	10-30	10-13	--	11-09	--	10-30	--	10-29	09-27	10-25	10-15	11-08	10-12	--	10-26	11-10	10-29	11-09	--	11-09	11-09	11-09	--	10-27	11-09	11-07	11-10	11-10	11-01	10-13	--	11-10	11-09	10-13	11-12	11-12	11-01	10-13	10-27	09-29	11-05	10-07	09-27	11-02	11-12	11-10	11-01	11-05	09-29	11-10	--	11-10	10-27	09-22	10-26	--	11-09	--	--	--	11-01	11-10	11-09	11-10	10-21	11-03	09-27	09-26	11-04	--	11-07	10-15	10-25	11-03	11-08	11-09	--	11-09	11-03	11-04	11-04	11-08	11-07	11-11	09-30	11-10	11-12	10-22	11-01	10-11	11-11	11-02	11-05	10-13	11-12	--	11-06	11-06	11-01	10-13	10-13	11-01	10-18	11-10	10-13	--	10-16	11-09	11-10	10-16	10-13	11-09	11-02	10-16	11-02	11-02	11-10	09-30	11-09	11-10	09-29	11-01	11-10	11-05	11-09	11-09	10-28	10-27	10-31	11-02	11-09	11-10	11-09	11-10	--	11-01	10-13	11-08	10-25	11-08	11-03	11-08	10-13	11-10	11-11	10-13	11-01	10-31	11-05	10-18	10-13	11-07	10-26	10-29	11-02	--	11-10	--	11-01	10-15	10-29	11-07	10-24	11-01	10-05	11-10	11-11	--	11-10	--	--	10-25	11-05	11-10	10-13	11-09	11-08	11-05	10-27	11-05	--	11-09	10-19	10-15	11-02	10-18	--	11-10	10-30	11-05	10-31	10-05	11-09	10-24	10-13	10-18	10-15	11-10	11-05	11-03	10-04	11-01	--	11-11	11-02	10-19	11-01	11-02	10-13	11-10	10-06
Peak daily increment	8	27	79	41	61	27	41	19		102	194	28		35	76	72	41	102	618	62	167	99	53	236	52	131	21	432		53		27	72	313		79	38	33	57	70	158	138	47	47	51		40		50	135	34	27	34	123	141	53	23	15	63	33	21	21	64	19	291	138	21	29	98	30	53	55	25	163	32	257	56		250	118	16	42	28	39	111	30	217	76			30	16	27	111	45	24	55	75	27	20			41	123	71		23		27		32	71	31	56	45	61		64	70	15	75		42	145	47		41	97	53	24	79	26	60		17	55	35	28	31	279	48	354	152	71	85	542	249	14	54	59	58	529	94		8	14	605	59		29				10	35	89	77	24	33	55	391	84		20	52	160	26	49	113		86	120	34	56	88	134	30	611	71	41	252	47	64	64	77	82	101	40		94	42	38	42	43	18	196	23	65		202	42	30	68	18	8	17	237	228	81	29	185	36	35	435	112	82	93	22	19	24	64	138	11	27	46	72	42		26	72	36	76	89	73	43	61	35	33	117	83	57	19	184	126	192	30	31	154		51		66	179	46	19	14	87	21	19	23		24			46	9	119	139	22	18	24	247	160		76	133	58	26	22		19	28	27	8	91	35	21	25	61	329	90	32	39	137	23		139	36	14	31	47	67	42	130
Days since peak	13	33	29	15	35	12	20	23		13	41	50		17	28	36	13	13	13	14	39	41	26	41	14	26	21	25		39		13	41	22		12	18	13	50	53	34	25	22	43	36		13		21	41	13	15	29	26	23	36	19	19	41	38	28	15	21	22	51	20	14	36	13	13	14	11	22	29	21	39	22		21	14	54	22	14	13	13	21	24	21			34	43	13	14	11	20	43	57	18	12			41	24	41		14		24		25	57	29	39	15	42		28	13	25	14		14	14	14		27	14	16	13	13	22	41		13	14	41	11	11	22	41	27	55	18	47	57	21	11	13	22	18	55	13		13	27	62	28		14				22	13	14	13	33	20	57	58	19		16	39	29	20	15	14		14	20	19	19	15	16	12	54	13	11	32	22	43	12	21	18	41	11		17	17	22	41	41	22	36	13	41		38	14	13	38	41	14	21	38	21	21	13	54	14	13	55	22	13	18	14	14	26	27	23	21	14	13	14	13		22	41	15	29	15	20	15	41	13	12	41	22	23	18	36	41	16	28	25	21		13		22	39	25	16	30	22	49	13	12		13			29	18	13	41	14	15	18	27	18		14	35	39	21	36		13	24	18	23	49	14	30	41	36	39	13	18	20	50	22		12	21	35	22	21	41	13	48
Last total	552	1388	3313	1298	3398	2190	2545	964	4171	6584	10158	1942	3281	2290	3458	3499	3168	4473	38333	2955	9320	5059	2400	14674	1796	6970	1365	28187	1439	1569	6084	1420	3963	14720	1285	4736	2210	1708	3224	4413	9443	7682	1821	3383	2478	2420	2562	1363	3418	6141	2239	1472	2201	8624	8729	2587	1195	1047	3548	2132	1156	1172	3639	933	18529	8240	1247	1427	5750	1882	3160	2282	1209	7488	1189	11377	3106	1946	9833	7493	603	1444	1449	1936	3226	1552	9393	3379	2076	1177	1598	893	1855	5801	2293	1223	2806	2546	1305	1187	1623	765	2382	7555	3330	2006	952	2167	1549	4072	2010	4556	1660	3594	1944	4057	1205	3483	4637	928	3746	647	1650	5986	2379	1747	2303	5837	2422	1502	5179	1947	3680	1679	942	3397	2470	1785	1951	9919	3024	18401	7688	5306	4024	34775	16894	925	4008	2521	2778	23680	5450	2498	471	893	30327	2831	5147	1066	832	3161	649	779	1780	5418	3521	1210	1782	2775	15341	4220	6616	786	2783	4947	1424	1949	4497	595	3861	6494	1682	2194	5317	8065	1583	16561	3211	2336	14430	3218	4562	4122	3873	4213	6995	2538	6876	4388	1889	2003	1948	2791	948	12254	963	3127	766	10571	1973	1545	3221	1506	454	694	13076	11703	2788	1436	10346	2026	1442	24680	5539	3569	5678	1402	1160	1337	2880	5881	571	1731	2211	2054	1364	1411	1694	3427	1352	3396	5492	3797	2324	4636	1667	1873	7447	3694	2443	1085	10257	7283	8661	1931	1316	10702	1270	3080	3853	3705	10179	2087	1084	925	3977	1560	1461	926	3576	1424	2797	1556	1869	349	6247	8530	1226	1064	1476	13054	8893	4928	5123	7997	2980	1873	1594	1572	1317	1678	1606	383	4518	1583	1403	1505	3863	16044	4795	1653	2290	9863	1453	2004	7608	1827	1061	1798	2284	3251	1946	5548
Last daily increment	3	12	38	17	35	35	50	17	88	83	88	11	85	19	48	25	29	100	439	27	66	33	31	119	76	62	17	240	37	13	68	18	31	139	27	75	33	30	24	37	77	82	20	48	42	87	28	32	25	21	33	22	29	65	60	25	23	9	43	22	5	15	36	4	168	124	10	13	71	16	47	55	14	79	16	96	33	75	177	112	9	54	21	37	87	19	141	52	28	21	10	4	14	96	41	13	30	33	10	18	46	14	16	54	35	23	10	83	9	93	31	33	13	30	36	53	32	37	69	10	29	13	23	106	20	31	24	84	18	17	74	16	38	28	6	44	26	23	23	165	44	204	43	55	31	254	193	12	59	23	68	98	75	96	8	12	173	26	205	13	39	45	7	3	22	44	49	14	7	37	109	53	116	17	25	85	28	48	73	10	75	100	21	24	53	106	21	89	54	43	122	35	51	70	38	58	57	22	143	39	31	17	15	27	10	151	18	29	24	81	27	22	24	9	2	13	66	138	29	21	63	23	16	161	100	86	64	18	23	14	37	93	3	21	32	17	27	24	10	43	24	53	54	32	29	59	19	25	50	57	28	10	84	63	165	20	24	80	16	30	190	48	67	32	12	11	66	14	16	11	131	21	60	45	18	12	125	61	17	15	15	138	128	97	73	57	29	17	17	47	12	15	12	6	26	40	11	9	40	117	65	12	29	34	44	27	113	14	8	18	55	19	31	31
Last week	29	69	253	85	233	147	217	90	450	464	485	50	426	117	262	171	173	459	2866	226	377	201	170	673	256	397	72	1385	143	71	490	108	167	917	96	354	152	163	137	234	411	481	90	198	201	301	166	136	181	254	162	107	137	446	384	114	84	52	181	109	52	80	240	33	1015	609	63	78	469	140	235	253	84	482	92	550	174	305	1007	565	63	163	112	157	381	92	702	315	134	92	84	38	100	556	232	94	150	134	89	96	186	77	124	400	161	184	82	353	66	402	150	167	94	223	199	297	164	159	340	52	219	74	157	661	159	132	115	459	143	95	405	94	226	189	50	241	150	117	133	838	220	1197	176	348	124	1515	1039	63	247	198	269	499	515	440	38	58	1030	197	1074	90	126	265	56	37	147	293	332	62	83	212	638	371	629	82	175	439	109	195	421	77	350	461	152	198	374	563	147	493	303	189	651	188	247	348	222	300	306	168	776	280	155	117	97	152	59	605	94	174	116	456	172	111	148	66	26	52	423	958	200	109	288	131	136	944	421	388	413	88	79	73	207	441	35	105	199	98	143	150	73	189	114	260	388	187	176	276	134	134	220	324	178	71	450	447	809	110	108	544	118	218	752	266	373	187	69	70	338	69	77	91	565	125	311	221	110	48	579	299	82	62	77	858	691	503	285	294	174	100	91	188	87	119	91	37	139	167	53	73	229	715	381	92	165	256	153	162	691	104	42	113	206	120	174	199
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																			29														75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																			1														6	16																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-24 to 2020-11-30

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-23	552	1388	3313	1298	3398	2190	2545	964	4171	6584	10158	1942	3281	2290	3458	3499	3168	4473	38333	2955	9320	5059	2400	14674	1796	6970	1365	28187	1439	1569	6084	1420	3963	14720	1285	4736	2210	1708	3224	4413	9443	7682	1821	3383	2478	2420	2562	1363	3418	6141	2239	1472	2201	8624	8729	2587	1195	1047	3548	2132	1156	1172	3639	933	18529	8240	1247	1427	5750	1882	3160	2282	1209	7488	1189	11377	3106	1946	9833	7493	603	1444	1449	1936	3226	1552	9393	3379	2076	1177	1598	893	1855	5801	2293	1223	2806	2546	1305	1187	1623	765	2382	7555	3330	2006	952	2167	1549	4072	2010	4556	1660	3594	1944	4057	1205	3483	4637	928	3746	647	1650	5986	2379	1747	2303	5837	2422	1502	5179	1947	3680	1679	942	3397	2470	1785	1951	9919	3024	18401	7688	5306	4024	34775	16894	925	4008	2521	2778	23680	5450	2498	471	893	30327	2831	5147	1066	832	3161	649	779	1780	5418	3521	1210	1782	2775	15341	4220	6616	786	2783	4947	1424	1949	4497	595	3861	6494	1682	2194	5317	8065	1583	16561	3211	2336	14430	3218	4562	4122	3873	4213	6995	2538	6876	4388	1889	2003	1948	2791	948	12254	963	3127	766	10571	1973	1545	3221	1506	454	694	13076	11703	2788	1436	10346	2026	1442	24680	5539	3569	5678	1402	1160	1337	2880	5881	571	1731	2211	2054	1364	1411	1694	3427	1352	3396	5492	3797	2324	4636	1667	1873	7447	3694	2443	1085	10257	7283	8661	1931	1316	10702	1270	3080	3853	3705	10179	2087	1084	925	3977	1560	1461	926	3576	1424	2797	1556	1869	349	6247	8530	1226	1064	1476	13054	8893	4928	5123	7997	2980	1873	1594	1572	1317	1678	1606	383	4518	1583	1403	1505	3863	16044	4795	1653	2290	9863	1453	2004	7608	1827	1061	1798	2284	3251	1946	5548
2020-11-24	559	1406	3463	1310	3493	2213	2595	981	4267	6728	10240	1953	3329	2359	3593	3533	3225	4582	39250	3065	9349	5103	2437	14810	1839	7281	1382	28420	1486	1587	6213	1463	4006	14930	1367	4802	2272	1746	3238	4493	9539	7945	1842	3453	2554	2500	2637	1386	3514	6208	2269	1516	2227	8861	8792	2596	1240	1076	3625	2153	1160	1188	3756	945	19070	8442	1290	1444	5828	1907	3242	2346	1228	7598	1212	11440	3216	2021	10210	7652	613	1473	1487	1989	3420	1573	9810	3504	2102	1194	1615	925	1877	5893	2334	1243	2913	2572	1358	1203	1663	779	2439	7795	3417	2040	970	2240	1567	4147	2037	4643	1680	3666	1980	4124	1228	3497	4732	939	3883	652	1713	6116	2452	1769	2405	5978	2533	1542	5270	1967	3760	1682	972	3444	2511	1809	1996	10480	3065	18560	7728	5399	4048	35110	17300	937	4080	2634	2831	23820	5532	2580	478	914	31040	2936	5371	1087	851	3207	660	787	1809	5602	3566	1224	1857	2830	15690	4351	6726	803	2816	5042	1446	2025	4664	599	3994	6676	1735	2296	5459	8264	1608	16710	3268	2373	14500	3255	4647	4178	4031	4359	7063	2593	6999	4569	1969	2024	1955	2852	962	12560	990	3159	788	10640	2027	1600	3262	1521	460	712	13180	12090	2954	1488	10380	2095	1468	24850	5707	3636	5823	1441	1177	1385	2994	5956	579	1753	2272	2079	1397	1440	1750	3460	1407	3538	5612	3850	2360	4698	1727	1900	7598	3827	2554	1101	10290	7504	8984	1954	1372	10990	1289	3157	4164	3804	10210	2163	1121	942	4126	1578	1477	934	3745	1446	2895	1612	1898	357	6395	8614	1244	1079	1494	13180	9155	5009	5188	8077	3084	1920	1612	1646	1344	1727	1658	390	4526	1615	1417	1531	3959	16180	4872	1724	2349	10030	1466	2021	7796	1853	1086	1822	2324	3261	2008	5559
2020-11-25	565	1423	3527	1321	3537	2235	2640	998	4362	6811	10310	1965	3409	2384	3646	3539	3268	4678	39850	3122	9376	5147	2474	14890	1878	7430	1398	28630	1519	1604	6317	1487	4050	14980	1407	4868	2305	1777	3245	4539	9589	8056	1863	3496	2596	2579	2673	1409	3555	6277	2299	1534	2253	8963	8850	2605	1258	1084	3656	2173	1164	1203	3806	957	19300	8553	1310	1462	5920	1933	3294	2404	1248	7710	1225	11490	3256	2093	10410	7759	622	1502	1512	2032	3504	1594	9950	3571	2128	1211	1632	935	1899	5982	2388	1263	2942	2598	1384	1219	1702	793	2473	7884	3449	2075	989	2314	1585	4219	2063	4667	1701	3716	2016	4183	1252	3510	4799	950	3932	658	1747	6234	2487	1789	2440	6064	2571	1563	5350	1988	3805	1706	990	3492	2538	1833	2021	10670	3106	18710	7758	5470	4071	35370	17520	949	4125	2689	2883	23860	5634	2671	485	928	31350	2982	5601	1110	869	3253	670	795	1838	5667	3604	1237	1884	2873	15850	4427	6864	821	2849	5140	1467	2060	4754	607	4061	6771	1760	2345	5536	8388	1633	16860	3322	2409	14560	3292	4690	4234	4082	4426	7117	2625	7119	4651	1999	2045	1962	2885	976	12660	1015	3192	809	10710	2068	1624	3282	1535	466	720	13210	12290	3009	1521	10410	2125	1494	24950	5787	3701	5907	1468	1193	1404	3043	6024	588	1776	2320	2100	1412	1468	1767	3494	1437	3590	5700	3851	2397	4749	1757	1926	7640	3896	2598	1117	10320	7617	9135	1976	1398	11110	1308	3208	4434	3854	10240	2203	1136	954	4188	1590	1493	939	3868	1468	2961	1667	1928	365	6518	8654	1261	1093	1513	13230	9286	5090	5253	8123	3117	1940	1629	1692	1368	1749	1675	396	4535	1647	1431	1554	3998	16300	4950	1744	2385	10090	1487	2040	7941	1879	1096	1846	2364	3269	2047	5570
2020-11-26	572	1441	3562	1333	3575	2257	2670	1015	4444	6910	10380	1976	3500	2406	3694	3539	3291	4766	40380	3162	9404	5189	2511	14960	1919	7564	1415	28830	1540	1621	6418	1509	4094	15010	1443	4931	2329	1806	3245	4593	9629	8139	1884	3528	2630	2660	2712	1432	3581	6344	2328	1557	2278	9038	8909	2614	1270	1100	3684	2194	1168	1218	3857	969	19470	8657	1320	1479	5995	1958	3338	2462	1267	7819	1246	11520	3292	2167	10600	7864	631	1531	1529	2056	3601	1615	10100	3627	2154	1227	1649	940	1920	6070	2420	1282	2968	2623	1398	1235	1742	807	2493	7954	3467	2108	1007	2388	1602	4288	2089	4699	1721	3758	2050	4232	1276	3524	4858	961	3980	663	1787	6358	2521	1810	2471	6146	2599	1581	5429	2007	3845	1732	1004	3538	2568	1857	2047	10840	3146	18850	7783	5530	4095	35570	17700	961	4172	2725	2935	23910	5735	2767	491	935	31650	3017	5815	1131	887	3298	680	803	1866	5718	3633	1251	1899	2903	15970	4495	6965	838	2880	5235	1488	2094	4819	616	4129	6859	1787	2386	5600	8476	1658	17000	3376	2444	14620	3328	4731	4289	4126	4492	7176	2650	7238	4711	2033	2066	1969	2910	990	12760	1039	3224	829	10780	2099	1646	3304	1549	472	728	13240	12480	3057	1539	10440	2145	1518	25050	5863	3765	5986	1482	1210	1421	3072	6078	596	1798	2360	2121	1430	1496	1777	3527	1456	3627	5763	3854	2432	4798	1788	1952	7671	3967	2634	1133	10360	7698	9298	1999	1417	11210	1327	3247	4741	3900	10270	2233	1143	964	4246	1609	1509	948	3999	1490	3017	1723	1956	373	6614	8683	1278	1108	1531	13260	9412	5170	5315	8168	3144	1961	1646	1731	1385	1773	1696	402	4545	1678	1444	1566	4039	16420	5025	1762	2414	10130	1509	2057	8070	1906	1103	1869	2403	3278	2083	5582
2020-11-27	579	1459	3612	1345	3616	2279	2702	1031	4509	6993	10450	1988	3571	2433	3739	3547	3320	4852	40900	3203	9430	5233	2548	15040	1957	7698	1431	29030	1572	1639	6498	1533	4138	15070	1496	4995	2359	1832	3246	4631	9704	8229	1905	3561	2667	2743	2736	1454	3613	6413	2357	1579	2303	9107	8967	2622	1284	1110	3714	2214	1171	1234	3908	981	19670	8778	1331	1496	6083	1983	3371	2507	1286	7931	1263	11590	3322	2241	10780	7972	641	1560	1551	2076	3691	1635	10220	3690	2180	1243	1667	944	1942	6157	2466	1302	3003	2648	1418	1251	1782	821	2514	8028	3492	2141	1026	2465	1620	4356	2116	4724	1742	3801	2085	4283	1301	3536	4918	973	4034	669	1818	6476	2558	1830	2512	6230	2623	1600	5491	2028	3877	1742	1014	3585	2596	1881	2070	11000	3186	18980	7812	5596	4117	35860	17880	973	4221	2768	2987	24010	5814	2871	498	947	32000	3053	6047	1153	904	3343	690	811	1894	5776	3676	1264	1921	2939	16080	4566	7061	855	2912	5332	1510	2128	4921	624	4194	6947	1822	2424	5667	8580	1683	17140	3430	2480	14680	3364	4780	4344	4176	4544	7210	2686	7356	4773	2061	2087	1976	2936	1004	12870	1063	3256	849	10850	2138	1665	3313	1564	478	733	13240	12670	3095	1555	10500	2172	1543	25170	5933	3828	6059	1496	1226	1433	3110	6140	604	1820	2390	2140	1450	1524	1796	3559	1486	3674	5826	3861	2468	4847	1811	1978	7710	4022	2669	1149	10390	7777	9441	2021	1435	11310	1345	3288	4951	3953	10290	2266	1160	975	4310	1618	1525	958	4137	1511	3087	1779	1986	380	6726	8756	1296	1123	1550	13310	9533	5249	5378	8197	3176	1977	1663	1779	1396	1791	1717	409	4554	1709	1458	1577	4078	16540	5102	1782	2436	10180	1531	2075	8195	1933	1108	1893	2443	3287	2110	5593
2020-11-28	585	1476	3643	1356	3649	2301	2730	1048	4569	7045	10520	1999	3606	2450	3776	3553	3345	4911	41290	3236	9456	5277	2585	15140	1996	7817	1447	29230	1596	1656	6563	1543	4182	15100	1526	5060	2379	1857	3259	4660	9783	8304	1926	3579	2692	2829	2756	1476	3636	6482	2386	1591	2329	9166	9025	2631	1299	1116	3740	2235	1175	1249	3939	994	19810	8864	1341	1513	6157	2009	3403	2546	1306	8044	1276	11630	3347	2317	10950	8043	650	1589	1570	2101	3740	1656	10330	3738	2205	1260	1684	952	1965	6244	2492	1323	3024	2673	1428	1267	1822	835	2527	8091	3519	2175	1045	2545	1638	4423	2142	4745	1762	3827	2120	4319	1326	3548	4956	984	4065	675	1842	6591	2577	1850	2553	6287	2649	1610	5541	2048	3909	1772	1019	3632	2612	1905	2088	11130	3226	19110	7831	5642	4140	36180	18030	985	4248	2796	3040	24110	5869	2961	505	954	32320	3088	6268	1176	922	3388	700	819	1923	5830	3707	1277	1930	2965	16170	4620	7131	873	2944	5431	1531	2156	4969	647	4244	7014	1844	2458	5720	8651	1708	17280	3484	2515	14730	3401	4816	4399	4219	4588	7239	2711	7474	4808	2082	2108	1982	2950	1018	12960	1087	3288	870	10910	2160	1682	3332	1578	485	739	13290	12800	3129	1569	10540	2189	1569	25310	5985	3891	6113	1505	1242	1441	3143	6216	613	1842	2419	2159	1470	1552	1807	3592	1501	3713	5890	3868	2505	4879	1827	2004	7738	4067	2693	1165	10420	7843	9548	2044	1453	11390	1364	3323	5136	3994	10320	2299	1169	991	4365	1624	1541	966	4246	1532	3137	1838	2017	388	6796	8793	1313	1137	1569	13360	9632	5329	5442	8227	3199	1991	1680	1806	1409	1807	1731	415	4563	1741	1472	1583	4106	16660	5179	1800	2462	10210	1552	2093	8285	1960	1116	1917	2482	3295	2135	5604
2020-11-29	592	1494	3676	1368	3678	2323	2756	1066	4609	7105	10590	2011	3662	2466	3795	3553	3374	4964	41590	3275	9482	5321	2623	15180	2035	7908	1464	29420	1612	1674	6626	1554	4226	15100	1559	5124	2397	1876	3259	4687	9804	8361	1947	3608	2710	2917	2769	1499	3668	6552	2416	1607	2354	9215	9082	2640	1306	1120	3761	2255	1178	1264	3963	1006	19940	8940	1347	1531	6211	2035	3436	2588	1326	8157	1284	11630	3361	2397	11070	8113	659	1618	1582	2125	3777	1678	10420	3776	2231	1276	1702	957	1987	6332	2517	1343	3038	2699	1441	1283	1864	849	2543	8123	3531	2209	1065	2627	1657	4490	2169	4770	1783	3849	2156	4354	1352	3561	4997	995	4096	681	1858	6676	2597	1871	2578	6351	2672	1623	5591	2068	3941	1792	1019	3680	2634	1929	2103	11210	3267	19250	7843	5676	4163	36330	18160	997	4271	2820	3092	24130	5944	3018	512	956	32550	3100	6459	1199	940	3434	710	827	1952	5860	3732	1291	1938	2993	16240	4663	7220	890	2977	5530	1553	2185	5033	650	4282	7058	1863	2479	5776	8733	1733	17420	3537	2551	14790	3438	4834	4455	4239	4615	7273	2730	7594	4839	2098	2128	1989	2967	1032	13000	1110	3321	890	10980	2182	1699	3336	1592	491	743	13300	12920	3151	1579	10550	2209	1594	25370	6028	3955	6162	1510	1259	1448	3165	6247	622	1865	2440	2179	1475	1581	1815	3625	1513	3743	5940	3868	2541	4905	1842	2030	7752	4094	2709	1181	10450	7892	9654	2066	1467	11450	1382	3348	5316	4018	10350	2323	1180	998	4408	1631	1557	969	4342	1554	3178	1899	2047	396	6861	8815	1331	1152	1587	13360	9729	5410	5505	8242	3220	2004	1697	1821	1417	1822	1740	422	4572	1773	1486	1584	4134	16780	5257	1812	2482	10230	1574	2111	8360	1987	1117	1941	2522	3303	2154	5616
2020-11-30	599	1512	3733	1380	3723	2345	2807	1083	4711	7207	10660	2022	3754	2492	3850	3587	3407	5060	42150	3324	9508	5365	2661	15310	2074	7984	1481	29620	1647	1692	6713	1577	4271	15220	1578	5190	2435	1909	3282	4729	9887	8461	1968	3659	2757	3008	2802	1522	3703	6623	2446	1633	2379	9302	9140	2648	1330	1130	3804	2276	1182	1279	4011	1019	20150	9072	1364	1548	6281	2061	3488	2641	1346	8271	1302	11750	3406	2479	11280	8234	669	1647	1604	2163	3883	1699	10590	3842	2257	1293	1719	965	2009	6420	2561	1363	3076	2724	1459	1299	1907	863	2567	8201	3575	2243	1084	2712	1675	4557	2196	4810	1804	3890	2191	4410	1378	3573	5068	1007	4139	687	1889	6791	2625	1891	2600	6442	2712	1645	5674	2089	3988	1818	1033	3728	2663	1954	2132	11440	3307	19380	7886	5743	4186	36590	18380	1009	4337	2865	3145	24240	6028	3127	519	968	32730	3142	6667	1222	958	3480	720	835	1982	5924	3791	1304	1954	3033	16380	4738	7336	908	3009	5630	1574	2245	5119	660	4361	7162	1889	2525	5844	8848	1758	17560	3592	2587	14850	3475	4883	4511	4289	4688	7338	2758	7714	4896	2135	2149	1996	2999	1047	13160	1134	3353	911	11040	2212	1723	3362	1607	497	756	13380	13110	3204	1606	10620	2240	1619	25530	6130	4020	6243	1533	1275	1467	3214	6348	630	1888	2477	2198	1506	1609	1834	3659	1544	3808	6004	3905	2578	4967	1870	2056	7811	4168	2751	1198	10480	7981	9843	2089	1491	11570	1401	3387	5532	4073	10370	2360	1197	1009	4488	1645	1573	985	4475	1575	3252	1961	2078	404	6994	8873	1349	1167	1606	13530	9871	5491	5569	8305	3258	2026	1715	1877	1432	1843	1758	429	4581	1805	1500	1600	4182	16900	5336	1833	2517	10280	1596	2130	8484	2015	1130	1965	2563	3312	2193	5627

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-24 to 2020-11-30

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-23	552	1388	3313	1298	3398	2190	2545	964	4171	6584	10158	1942	3281	2290	3458	3499	3168	4473	38333	2955	9320	5059	2400	14674	1796	6970	1365	28187	1439	1569	6084	1420	3963	14720	1285	4736	2210	1708	3224	4413	9443	7682	1821	3383	2478	2420	2562	1363	3418	6141	2239	1472	2201	8624	8729	2587	1195	1047	3548	2132	1156	1172	3639	933	18529	8240	1247	1427	5750	1882	3160	2282	1209	7488	1189	11377	3106	1946	9833	7493	603	1444	1449	1936	3226	1552	9393	3379	2076	1177	1598	893	1855	5801	2293	1223	2806	2546	1305	1187	1623	765	2382	7555	3330	2006	952	2167	1549	4072	2010	4556	1660	3594	1944	4057	1205	3483	4637	928	3746	647	1650	5986	2379	1747	2303	5837	2422	1502	5179	1947	3680	1679	942	3397	2470	1785	1951	9919	3024	18401	7688	5306	4024	34775	16894	925	4008	2521	2778	23680	5450	2498	471	893	30327	2831	5147	1066	832	3161	649	779	1780	5418	3521	1210	1782	2775	15341	4220	6616	786	2783	4947	1424	1949	4497	595	3861	6494	1682	2194	5317	8065	1583	16561	3211	2336	14430	3218	4562	4122	3873	4213	6995	2538	6876	4388	1889	2003	1948	2791	948	12254	963	3127	766	10571	1973	1545	3221	1506	454	694	13076	11703	2788	1436	10346	2026	1442	24680	5539	3569	5678	1402	1160	1337	2880	5881	571	1731	2211	2054	1364	1411	1694	3427	1352	3396	5492	3797	2324	4636	1667	1873	7447	3694	2443	1085	10257	7283	8661	1931	1316	10702	1270	3080	3853	3705	10179	2087	1084	925	3977	1560	1461	926	3576	1424	2797	1556	1869	349	6247	8530	1226	1064	1476	13054	8893	4928	5123	7997	2980	1873	1594	1572	1317	1678	1606	383	4518	1583	1403	1505	3863	16044	4795	1653	2290	9863	1453	2004	7608	1827	1061	1798	2284	3251	1946	5548
2020-11-24	555	1403	3358	1312	3451	2215	2585	979	4261	6668	10230	1952	3351	2318	3508	3515	3201	4561	38880	3002	9372	5091	2437	14770	1846	7042	1378	28400	1470	1581	6189	1440	3989	14840	1311	4798	2234	1734	3241	4455	9508	7773	1839	3413	2513	2481	2612	1386	3456	6186	2265	1494	2219	8717	8792	2603	1213	1057	3587	2150	1161	1188	3686	940	18750	8352	1262	1441	5827	1903	3207	2326	1219	7556	1206	11470	3137	2004	10020	7579	613	1471	1467	1969	3316	1569	9530	3439	2101	1197	1611	900	1873	5893	2334	1238	2843	2569	1324	1202	1656	779	2407	7633	3360	2038	966	2233	1561	4149	2033	4591	1675	3631	1979	4105	1234	3507	4715	937	3796	659	1677	6105	2419	1770	2329	5921	2452	1522	5253	1963	3723	1706	949	3438	2498	1805	1975	10080	3066	18580	7721	5349	4044	35010	17100	935	4057	2557	2830	23760	5532	2568	477	904	30540	2865	5334	1080	855	3204	658	785	1805	5479	3575	1220	1801	2817	15480	4289	6736	801	2812	5007	1444	1988	4583	606	3924	6575	1708	2222	5388	8186	1608	16650	3267	2370	14510	3247	4605	4177	3928	4269	7049	2563	7011	4443	1920	2019	1962	2829	959	12370	981	3154	780	10650	2006	1576	3243	1519	457	706	13140	11920	2835	1459	10390	2057	1464	24820	5620	3642	5752	1416	1175	1350	2922	5946	577	1749	2240	2072	1386	1435	1710	3461	1374	3463	5561	3828	2355	4673	1691	1898	7499	3752	2478	1097	10330	7364	8824	1950	1341	10800	1292	3119	4015	3749	10240	2124	1102	938	4044	1574	1475	939	3701	1447	2857	1593	1875	357	6343	8575	1245	1078	1490	13160	9024	5013	5181	8042	3013	1895	1610	1616	1333	1699	1622	388	4536	1612	1410	1518	3907	16140	4861	1681	2315	9910	1476	2025	7760	1844	1068	1809	2320	3266	1972	5580
2020-11-25	562	1421	3412	1329	3497	2239	2624	996	4356	6750	10310	1962	3430	2344	3558	3551	3238	4652	39460	3057	9436	5131	2467	14890	1892	7131	1393	28650	1494	1599	6293	1465	4030	15030	1327	4868	2265	1763	3263	4500	9577	7880	1862	3453	2551	2547	2647	1410	3494	6250	2294	1516	2238	8817	8875	2626	1231	1067	3620	2170	1171	1204	3738	951	18970	8470	1281	1458	5913	1929	3255	2379	1238	7654	1222	11550	3177	2057	10220	7685	624	1497	1492	2004	3411	1586	9670	3508	2129	1216	1628	909	1896	5994	2382	1258	2874	2595	1347	1224	1687	794	2440	7718	3390	2076	986	2307	1576	4229	2056	4619	1694	3678	2018	4159	1261	3534	4776	948	3849	674	1712	6235	2455	1791	2351	6009	2492	1542	5331	1982	3768	1727	964	3486	2526	1830	2001	10260	3107	18820	7752	5421	4063	35280	17310	948	4103	2607	2882	23850	5624	2655	484	918	30740	2908	5547	1102	874	3254	668	793	1837	5545	3641	1231	1826	2860	15630	4362	6871	819	2842	5086	1465	2028	4673	616	3991	6670	1736	2268	5465	8303	1635	16730	3326	2407	14610	3281	4649	4239	3983	4337	7097	2596	7144	4514	1952	2039	1978	2863	973	12490	999	3185	800	10720	2042	1601	3271	1532	462	717	13230	12110	2882	1487	10430	2088	1492	24970	5695	3708	5836	1438	1192	1368	2970	6029	585	1771	2288	2099	1413	1466	1727	3493	1404	3514	5640	3868	2393	4722	1718	1924	7545	3813	2520	1113	10410	7470	8973	1971	1368	10920	1312	3166	4169	3798	10310	2163	1118	950	4110	1586	1491	956	3808	1469	2920	1637	1903	365	6456	8615	1264	1092	1506	13310	9158	5099	5243	8090	3048	1916	1627	1655	1353	1722	1641	394	4562	1643	1422	1539	3949	16250	4943	1701	2349	9970	1499	2053	7897	1869	1078	1833	2356	3283	2008	5614
2020-11-26	569	1440	3455	1347	3534	2262	2658	1013	4443	6846	10390	1972	3513	2367	3608	3579	3271	4738	40010	3107	9496	5171	2497	15000	1941	7212	1408	28900	1514	1617	6397	1489	4070	15210	1343	4938	2290	1791	3284	4552	9645	7978	1886	3485	2588	2614	2686	1432	3529	6311	2322	1540	2258	8897	8955	2648	1246	1080	3651	2189	1180	1220	3792	961	19170	8586	1296	1471	5999	1958	3302	2433	1259	7752	1240	11620	3216	2110	10420	7789	635	1522	1510	2036	3509	1602	9810	3570	2157	1232	1644	916	1920	6094	2420	1277	2904	2620	1368	1243	1718	810	2463	7799	3415	2113	1006	2375	1592	4309	2078	4651	1712	3722	2056	4208	1288	3563	4832	958	3904	689	1750	6371	2491	1813	2372	6096	2525	1561	5409	2001	3811	1753	978	3534	2555	1856	2027	10430	3150	19020	7783	5481	4080	35520	17490	962	4151	2651	2935	23950	5718	2743	491	926	30920	2946	5739	1125	892	3305	678	801	1868	5610	3706	1241	1849	2889	15770	4434	6973	837	2872	5169	1485	2067	4758	627	4060	6759	1766	2309	5535	8401	1663	16820	3383	2443	14710	3316	4690	4296	4038	4405	7147	2625	7275	4582	1985	2060	1994	2888	987	12590	1018	3215	819	10800	2075	1626	3298	1545	468	727	13320	12290	2921	1509	10480	2115	1519	25120	5770	3774	5918	1455	1209	1384	3008	6109	594	1794	2326	2125	1441	1497	1744	3525	1429	3554	5711	3911	2430	4769	1746	1951	7585	3874	2560	1130	10490	7565	9133	1991	1388	11030	1331	3210	4326	3847	10380	2196	1131	961	4172	1601	1508	976	3916	1492	2975	1680	1933	372	6547	8651	1282	1105	1519	13450	9293	5180	5300	8137	3081	1937	1644	1689	1371	1745	1661	401	4586	1674	1432	1551	3993	16360	5025	1722	2380	10020	1518	2081	8020	1893	1087	1856	2392	3300	2043	5647
2020-11-27	576	1459	3504	1365	3574	2285	2692	1031	4519	6932	10460	1981	3594	2395	3657	3619	3304	4824	40560	3159	9562	5211	2539	15120	1987	7290	1423	29150	1538	1634	6487	1515	4112	15390	1361	5009	2318	1818	3305	4595	9717	8078	1908	3516	2624	2683	2712	1456	3565	6375	2350	1563	2275	8970	9034	2672	1262	1090	3681	2209	1190	1237	3847	972	19380	8708	1312	1485	6088	1983	3346	2481	1278	7848	1256	11700	3248	2166	10620	7898	645	1547	1532	2068	3611	1623	9940	3637	2185	1245	1661	922	1944	6195	2466	1298	2939	2646	1390	1260	1749	823	2487	7881	3441	2152	1026	2443	1608	4385	2100	4678	1731	3766	2095	4258	1317	3599	4890	970	3961	704	1784	6491	2522	1835	2396	6184	2556	1580	5480	2020	3850	1770	990	3583	2584	1881	2051	10600	3192	19210	7809	5550	4100	35780	17670	975	4201	2698	2988	24060	5798	2837	499	938	31120	2984	5951	1148	911	3356	688	809	1901	5677	3776	1252	1873	2924	15920	4506	7075	856	2901	5250	1506	2108	4854	638	4125	6847	1798	2352	5607	8507	1690	16900	3443	2481	14800	3352	4736	4347	4094	4468	7186	2660	7410	4650	2017	2082	2010	2913	1001	12710	1037	3247	840	10880	2113	1650	3321	1559	475	735	13390	12470	2963	1530	10540	2145	1548	25280	5844	3842	5995	1472	1226	1399	3048	6189	602	1816	2355	2152	1473	1526	1763	3557	1458	3595	5782	3952	2469	4816	1772	1979	7628	3928	2598	1147	10560	7658	9284	2012	1409	11140	1348	3255	4485	3898	10450	2228	1148	972	4240	1611	1524	996	4032	1514	3042	1724	1959	380	6654	8697	1301	1120	1536	13580	9426	5267	5362	8177	3115	1955	1660	1725	1385	1766	1685	407	4609	1706	1444	1563	4036	16480	5109	1743	2406	10070	1536	2107	8142	1919	1095	1877	2429	3317	2074	5683
2020-11-28	583	1478	3546	1380	3609	2309	2726	1049	4589	7008	10540	1990	3673	2419	3703	3647	3337	4890	41070	3210	9614	5250	2565	15220	2037	7372	1437	29410	1558	1656	6571	1536	4150	15570	1376	5081	2342	1851	3327	4632	9791	8171	1939	3538	2655	2752	2734	1478	3598	6438	2380	1584	2292	9056	9104	2693	1278	1100	3706	2228	1198	1253	3896	983	19560	8822	1327	1503	6172	2008	3391	2528	1295	7938	1272	11760	3283	2220	10820	7986	654	1569	1553	2100	3724	1638	10070	3698	2213	1262	1676	930	1969	6293	2501	1314	2965	2672	1410	1275	1781	835	2505	7958	3466	2191	1046	2507	1624	4457	2123	4706	1749	3806	2128	4303	1346	3625	4929	980	4012	719	1814	6612	2555	1857	2424	6259	2590	1594	5543	2039	3890	1794	1001	3632	2611	1907	2075	10740	3235	19400	7827	5600	4114	36120	17860	988	4240	2740	3042	24150	5860	2909	505	946	31300	3026	6140	1171	931	3408	698	817	1933	5742	3842	1262	1894	2952	16060	4573	7152	875	2930	5324	1527	2147	4938	656	4184	6941	1827	2400	5676	8601	1719	16990	3504	2517	14900	3386	4780	4396	4150	4539	7224	2690	7526	4711	2048	2107	2026	2926	1015	12800	1056	3278	856	10950	2145	1672	3346	1574	480	746	13460	12620	3018	1549	10580	2172	1576	25430	5912	3906	6065	1487	1242	1415	3087	6269	611	1840	2390	2179	1505	1557	1779	3587	1482	3638	5853	3990	2507	4848	1796	2006	7662	3982	2631	1164	10640	7746	9411	2032	1430	11240	1368	3304	4632	3950	10520	2264	1163	985	4309	1620	1541	1016	4140	1537	3095	1775	1979	388	6733	8732	1319	1135	1554	13690	9550	5350	5428	8218	3145	1974	1677	1748	1400	1787	1703	413	4630	1738	1454	1570	4074	16570	5193	1763	2434	10100	1558	2128	8244	1945	1104	1897	2464	3334	2101	5717
2020-11-29	589	1498	3601	1398	3638	2333	2759	1067	4643	7087	10620	1999	3756	2446	3749	3692	3372	4959	41560	3264	9657	5289	2591	15320	2085	7466	1453	29660	1573	1674	6638	1559	4192	15780	1391	5154	2371	1877	3348	4671	9858	8281	1964	3570	2692	2824	2757	1495	3635	6501	2407	1610	2308	9134	9202	2716	1295	1109	3738	2248	1205	1269	3946	994	19750	8936	1343	1516	6246	2036	3437	2581	1314	8035	1288	11820	3323	2275	11010	8080	663	1601	1575	2134	3813	1654	10210	3760	2242	1277	1691	940	1994	6396	2537	1334	2999	2699	1432	1290	1813	849	2528	8033	3497	2230	1067	2573	1640	4533	2145	4740	1769	3844	2162	4348	1377	3653	4973	990	4065	735	1847	6705	2592	1880	2446	6353	2628	1611	5610	2059	3933	1812	1012	3682	2639	1934	2095	10910	3279	19620	7847	5644	4128	36390	18050	1002	4277	2788	3098	24230	5931	2972	512	952	31480	3061	6321	1195	950	3461	705	825	1967	5810	3910	1273	1916	2979	16200	4636	7241	894	2960	5399	1548	2192	5029	665	4244	7024	1855	2437	5746	8705	1747	17070	3560	2555	15000	3421	4806	4448	4205	4596	7267	2719	7648	4775	2078	2127	2043	2945	1030	12880	1076	3310	877	11020	2178	1696	3370	1588	487	757	13520	12750	3049	1569	10640	2203	1606	25570	5982	3973	6141	1504	1262	1428	3119	6369	620	1863	2424	2206	1536	1590	1796	3617	1514	3683	5923	4048	2547	4883	1821	2034	7696	4034	2670	1181	10710	7845	9560	2052	1449	11360	1387	3348	4783	3994	10590	2300	1178	993	4369	1630	1558	1034	4236	1561	3143	1825	2019	396	6809	8761	1338	1148	1572	13850	9690	5429	5481	8260	3177	1994	1694	1767	1414	1809	1717	419	4651	1770	1462	1576	4114	16660	5279	1785	2465	10150	1574	2153	8333	1973	1111	1919	2500	3352	2141	5751
2020-11-30	600	1518	3670	1430	3697	2357	2803	1085	4762	7213	10700	2009	3847	2481	3811	3768	3409	5061	42220	3327	9747	5340	2630	15460	2136	7560	1472	29920	1604	1695	6760	1588	4257	16100	1404	5229	2418	1911	3380	4727	9934	8412	1991	3640	2739	2897	2800	1528	3679	6586	2437	1637	2327	9259	9305	2750	1317	1123	3787	2269	1219	1285	4011	1006	20070	9078	1366	1540	6333	2065	3491	2640	1342	8171	1306	11910	3382	2337	11260	8233	674	1632	1606	2169	3936	1677	10400	3844	2271	1301	1709	951	2019	6502	2585	1363	3063	2725	1458	1312	1846	872	2561	8136	3539	2271	1089	2669	1656	4633	2168	4785	1788	3896	2202	4403	1407	3714	5051	1002	4131	751	1888	6869	2638	1902	2472	6457	2694	1641	5701	2079	3991	1837	1031	3732	2670	1960	2134	11190	3323	19880	7878	5747	4151	36730	18340	1016	4344	2851	3154	24360	6029	3080	521	965	31660	3117	6580	1219	971	3515	719	833	2000	5897	3990	1283	1946	3017	16350	4727	7389	914	2991	5519	1574	2249	5133	679	4339	7142	1890	2505	5834	8831	1776	17160	3627	2596	15100	3462	4857	4514	4264	4685	7321	2760	7793	4859	2119	2161	2059	2987	1045	13050	1096	3342	907	11110	2214	1727	3404	1603	495	773	13630	13010	3118	1604	10710	2244	1636	25740	6077	4040	6243	1528	1282	1454	3182	6473	628	1887	2479	2234	1596	1628	1823	3654	1552	3757	6003	4119	2587	4952	1853	2063	7766	4112	2726	1199	10800	7967	9773	2076	1478	11510	1408	3396	4951	4054	10670	2346	1198	1004	4457	1643	1575	1060	4366	1585	3233	1880	2071	405	6966	8815	1359	1165	1590	14090	9856	5536	5561	8319	3226	2020	1711	1819	1434	1834	1749	426	4692	1804	1483	1596	4169	16770	5365	1819	2508	10230	1596	2192	8473	2004	1126	1951	2543	3370	2188	5787

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-23 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-23