COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-29

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	11-04	10-21	10-25	11-08	10-21	--	--	10-31	--	11-08	10-13	10-04	--	11-03	10-24	10-19	11-05	--	11-03	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-24	10-12	11-16	10-26	10-25	10-24	--	10-15	11-08	--	10-12	10-30	11-01	--	11-03	11-03	10-04	09-27	10-25	10-29	11-02	10-05	10-24	11-15	10-25	--	11-01	10-13	11-07	11-01	10-25	10-28	10-31	10-22	10-27	11-03	10-11	10-17	10-26	10-31	11-02	10-30	10-03	11-03	11-04	10-18	11-10	11-18	11-04	--	11-01	10-25	11-02	10-19	10-27	11-16	11-02	11-04	09-30	11-01	11-01	11-03	11-08	10-25	10-30	11-02	11-03	11-15	10-20	10-26	11-05	11-09	11-10	11-03	10-11	09-27	11-01	11-03	--	--	10-11	10-28	10-11	11-17	11-03	--	10-30	--	10-29	09-27	10-24	10-17	11-03	10-12	--	10-22	11-08	10-21	11-03	11-15	11-05	11-08	11-02	--	10-22	11-04	11-01	11-04	11-10	10-29	10-11	--	04-21	11-04	10-13	11-03	10-25	11-01	10-13	10-27	09-29	10-21	10-07	09-27	11-02	11-09	--	11-01	--	09-29	11-08	--	11-05	10-24	09-22	10-21	--	11-01	11-16	--	11-08	10-31	11-08	11-03	--	10-21	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-01	--	11-03	10-19	10-25	11-03	11-01	11-07	11-13	11-01	11-03	11-03	11-01	10-28	10-31	11-11	09-30	11-01	11-02	10-20	11-01	10-11	11-11	11-02	11-03	10-13	10-25	--	11-03	10-26	11-01	10-13	10-13	11-01	10-22	11-10	10-12	--	10-22	11-01	11-07	10-09	10-11	11-04	11-02	10-21	10-29	11-01	11-05	09-30	11-03	11-03	09-29	10-31	11-02	10-31	11-01	11-07	10-28	10-21	10-31	11-01	11-02	--	11-09	11-02	11-04	10-30	10-13	11-03	10-25	11-03	11-03	11-03	10-12	11-01	11-06	10-09	10-31	10-31	11-04	10-18	10-12	11-01	10-25	10-29	11-01	11-01	11-04	--	11-01	10-18	10-29	11-01	10-21	10-28	10-05	11-03	11-04	--	11-03	--	--	10-25	--	11-05	10-13	11-09	11-01	11-02	10-22	11-02	--	11-01	10-20	10-19	10-29	10-21	11-18	11-03	10-25	10-29	10-30	10-05	11-18	10-24	10-13	10-20	10-21	11-08	11-03	11-02	10-04	--	11-04	11-02	10-30	10-21	10-30	11-02	10-11	10-31	10-06
Peak daily increment	8	29	79	41	64			19		96	191	28		34	75	73	37		600	60	163	99	54	235	52	135	21	443		50	99		71	320	25		37	31	57	70	159	140	45	47	51	67	40		49	132	32	26	34	124	142	54	23	14	62	32	22	19	63	20	291	136	20	30	87	29	51		26	164	29	252	55	55	245	116	16	36	27	37	102	30	220	74	29	18	33	16	25	101	41	26	55	75	26	19			41	126	71	38	23		27		32	71	32	55	42	61		65	65	15	71	14	39	132	45		42	95	50	22	76	27	59		16	52	34	27	29	278	47	357	152	72	85	541	245	13		59		528	87		7	14	605	60		26	20		15	10	31	88		26	32	55	391	83		20	51	159	26	48	103	20	85	116	34	55	87	127	27	611	66	39	261	47	64	61	78	80	101	36		92	41	38	41	42	17	200	19	63		201	42	28	66	18	7	16	245	228	79	28	184	35	30	435	109	73	91	22	18	24	65	138	11	26		73	37	31	26	70	34	75	84	74	42	61	34	30	118	81	56	19	183	125	188	32	30	153	25	48		64	177	46	18	15	87	21	18	19		23			46		114	138	20	18	24	252	157		74	136	59	25	22	44	18	28	26	8	91	41	22	24	62	340	84	30	38	137		32	135	36	15	30	46	65	40	130
Days since peak	25	39	35	21	39			29		21	47	56		26	36	41	24		26	27	42	49	36	48	13	34	35	36		45	21		48	30	28		26	26	56	63	35	31	27	55	36	14	35		28	47	22	28	35	32	29	38	33	26	49	43	34	29	27	30	57	26	25	42	19	11	25		28	35	27	41	33	13	27	25	60	28	28	26	21	35	30	27	26	14	40	34	24	20	19	26	49	63	28	26			49	32	49	12	26		30		31	63	36	43	26	48		38	21	39	26	14	24	21	27		38	25	28	25	19	31	49		222	25	47	26	35	28	47	33	61	39	53	63	27	20		28		61	21		24	36	68	39		28	13		21	29	21	26		39	27	63	64	28		26	41	35	26	28	22	16	28	26	26	28	32	29	18	60	28	27	40	28	49	18	27	26	47	35		26	34	28	47	47	28	38	19	48		38	28	22	51	49	25	27	39	31	28	24	60	26	26	61	29	27	29	28	22	32	39	29	28	27		20	27	25	30	47	26	35	26	26	26	48	28	23	51	29	29	25	42	48	28	35	31	28	28	25		28	42	31	28	39	32	55	26	25		26			35		24	47	20	28	27	38	27		28	40	41	31	39	11	26	35	31	30	55	11	36	47	40	39	21	26	27	56		25	27	30	39	30	27	49	29	54
Last total	572	1442	3497	1370	3565	2385	2752	1013	4644	7074	10512	1981	3777	2443	3643	3627	3306	4899	40433	3131	9697	5249	2510	15153	2079	7237	1464	29241	1567	1632	6537	1544	4082	15387	1423	5129	2298	1842	3351	4633	9758	8095	1890	3579	2641	2750	2632	1493	3608	6340	2399	1566	2284	9044	9001	2704	1247	1110	3744	2266	1181	1232	3751	965	19325	8726	1317	1470	6160	1992	3365	2493	1290	7834	1239	11905	3234	2240	10575	7958	642	1552	1518	2085	3540	1662	9837	3597	2166	1221	1660	909	1958	6246	2492	1298	2907	2654	1396	1269	1824	822	2467	7808	3461	2207	1075	2496	1612	4402	2137	4703	1718	3737	2044	4373	1335	3591	4920	976	3968	690	1745	6610	2487	1873	2361	6221	2505	1558	5540	2028	3829	1814	973	3601	2597	1886	2056	10428	3275	19253	7829	5562	4175	35822	17651	983	4272	2656	3072	24093	5879	3050	501	933	31175	2957	6490	1137	909	3459	684	810	1876	5625	3843	1307	1846	2949	15752	4471	7306	885	2883	5206	1515	2136	4788	645	4138	6811	1780	2324	5609	8505	1709	17004	3449	2451	14836	3370	4781	4476	4014	4400	7211	2731	7652	4553	2018	2110	2025	2931	984	12711	1063	3302	856	11021	2095	1695	3309	1558	480	734	13402	12421	2891	1537	10554	2120	1573	25505	5759	3923	5937	1497	1221	1394	2994	6222	603	1839	2411	2120	1469	1487	1754	3629	1491	3565	5790	3947	2538	4888	1769	1989	7652	3933	2617	1163	10554	7627	9401	1983	1398	11078	1348	3318	4520	3957	10459	2207	1149	959	4208	1643	1514	1001	4097	1504	3069	1804	1937	425	6780	8726	1330	1131	1537	13622	9467	5408	5389	8229	3093	2009	1650	1701	1386	1770	1675	408	4624	1780	1436	1560	4048	16596	5088	1739	2407	10026	1611	2145	8165	1885	1076	1884	2455	3365	2045	5659
Last daily increment	0	5	15	6	23	35	36	2	75	83	42	6	69	22	24	20	21	45	246	15	41	27	12	46	20	28	20	147	11	7	60	23	12	74	20	51	11	20	15	16	24	41	5	23	20	36	1	11	27	29	27	5	11	56	31	19	6	10	20	18	1	8	17	6	95	48	14	1	55	11	13	32	12	37	8	70	13	36	68	50	8	6	6	22	21	10	43	23	12	9	6	1	17	97	31	13	19	25	17	7	30	1	7	34	12	21	13	39	7	45	15	22	9	14	12	55	13	16	58	3	30	5	6	90	17	22	7	62	6	4	35	4	15	19	0	37	12	11	10	52	27	112	9	33	20	134	72	2	29	23	24	58	53	81	7	3	89	12	208	6	9	39	6	5	16	25	46	17	2	19	40	31	76	7	13	29	14	34	30	5	32	26	13	6	49	58	11	57	48	9	35	23	29	43	9	18	20	23	107	12	9	12	11	13	4	68	12	20	12	55	9	38	7	8	8	2	39	89	13	6	32	14	14	78	18	49	31	9	5	7	14	52	11	11	28	13	9	17	10	24	13	23	28	18	21	33	27	13	21	31	10	12	21	36	69	9	7	49	14	43	94	37	34	9	6	3	22	8	4	6	74	15	32	25	7	5	68	18	16	13	6	64	96	81	43	35	16	21	6	11	7	15	5	2	15	26	3	6	19	69	33	11	9	20	18	16	65	8	2	8	23	17	5	11
Last week	19	54	185	77	170	195	208	51	473	506	353	37	501	153	180	128	141	435	2070	174	371	191	106	471	281	269	101	1036	132	65	452	122	130	656	139	415	92	139	126	215	304	411	65	207	167	331	69	133	198	205	164	94	87	393	282	115	52	64	190	130	25	63	114	33	785	486	69	46	403	118	202	210	82	344	49	516	131	285	749	466	39	110	67	156	307	105	440	223	93	50	63	15	106	442	198	77	105	111	93	82	202	54	84	244	131	202	117	327	62	331	124	146	57	148	98	323	137	108	291	51	220	46	96	631	109	131	58	390	88	65	365	81	147	135	36	206	128	102	100	504	257	846	129	268	150	1032	765	58	273	139	299	395	435	546	30	42	801	129	1327	71	70	310	35	31	110	203	322	95	53	177	407	252	690	73	99	257	90	188	289	49	268	318	99	128	296	433	124	427	231	121	400	151	209	336	139	186	207	189	783	159	133	109	77	144	38	447	101	169	91	442	120	145	91	53	23	39	316	714	101	100	199	94	133	753	225	356	265	92	60	58	114	338	32	106	177	66	107	80	64	200	137	170	272	148	214	261	104	121	203	241	173	75	285	325	729	59	82	364	81	247	663	256	263	120	66	37	236	83	56	79	531	83	274	245	68	55	535	201	104	67	62	564	578	484	275	221	120	137	60	131	72	97	70	24	103	200	35	54	185	545	289	87	118	157	156	143	560	58	20	84	175	111	100	112
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																			29														75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																			1														6	16																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-30 to 2020-12-06

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-29	572	1442	3497	1370	3565	2385	2752	1013	4644	7074	10512	1981	3777	2443	3643	3627	3306	4899	40433	3131	9697	5249	2510	15153	2079	7237	1464	29241	1567	1632	6537	1544	4082	15387	1423	5129	2298	1842	3351	4633	9758	8095	1890	3579	2641	2750	2632	1493	3608	6340	2399	1566	2284	9044	9001	2704	1247	1110	3744	2266	1181	1232	3751	965	19325	8726	1317	1470	6160	1992	3365	2493	1290	7834	1239	11905	3234	2240	10575	7958	642	1552	1518	2085	3540	1662	9837	3597	2166	1221	1660	909	1958	6246	2492	1298	2907	2654	1396	1269	1824	822	2467	7808	3461	2207	1075	2496	1612	4402	2137	4703	1718	3737	2044	4373	1335	3591	4920	976	3968	690	1745	6610	2487	1873	2361	6221	2505	1558	5540	2028	3829	1814	973	3601	2597	1886	2056	10428	3275	19253	7829	5562	4175	35822	17651	983	4272	2656	3072	24093	5879	3050	501	933	31175	2957	6490	1137	909	3459	684	810	1876	5625	3843	1307	1846	2949	15752	4471	7306	885	2883	5206	1515	2136	4788	645	4138	6811	1780	2324	5609	8505	1709	17004	3449	2451	14836	3370	4781	4476	4014	4400	7211	2731	7652	4553	2018	2110	2025	2931	984	12711	1063	3302	856	11021	2095	1695	3309	1558	480	734	13402	12421	2891	1537	10554	2120	1573	25505	5759	3923	5937	1497	1221	1394	2994	6222	603	1839	2411	2120	1469	1487	1754	3629	1491	3565	5790	3947	2538	4888	1769	1989	7652	3933	2617	1163	10554	7627	9401	1983	1398	11078	1348	3318	4520	3957	10459	2207	1149	959	4208	1643	1514	1001	4097	1504	3069	1804	1937	425	6780	8726	1330	1131	1537	13622	9467	5408	5389	8229	3093	2009	1650	1701	1386	1770	1675	408	4624	1780	1436	1560	4048	16596	5088	1739	2407	10026	1611	2145	8165	1885	1076	1884	2455	3365	2045	5659
2020-11-30	577	1453	3510	1381	3595	2416	2805	1025	4765	7158	10630	1987	3864	2468	3656	3669	3334	4974	40750	3169	9760	5261	2518	15330	2140	7363	1479	29470	1605	1643	6680	1565	4100	15530	1443	5193	2305	1886	3414	4670	9900	8155	1901	3647	2651	2817	2749	1515	3641	6370	2427	1584	2313	9067	9038	2727	1251	1120	3805	2286	1188	1245	3785	970	19430	8764	1330	1473	6234	2013	3403	2572	1301	7907	1252	12020	3251	2284	10620	8149	650	1616	1528	2113	3607	1678	9920	3612	2186	1234	1665	925	1977	6396	2549	1312	2916	2675	1401	1284	1864	853	2485	7857	3533	2241	1093	2574	1622	4529	2159	4712	1723	3769	2136	4424	1361	3618	4975	979	3999	700	1757	6723	2498	1898	2379	6294	2514	1572	5658	2038	3862	1874	981	3640	2649	1905	2077	10510	3315	19480	7873	5614	4197	36070	17700	994	4321	2671	3120	24170	5997	3160	507	941	31380	2987	6851	1152	949	3502	691	816	1899	5653	3914	1320	1851	2962	15820	4488	7406	900	2889	5253	1524	2154	4833	652	4160	6880	1794	2333	5626	8535	1732	17080	3498	2531	15010	3379	4878	4554	4100	4418	7318	2772	7799	4572	2042	2127	2037	2982	993	12870	1080	3328	911	11080	2118	1720	3338	1567	485	746	13520	12590	2909	1555	10660	2140	1597	25630	5778	4026	5959	1512	1234	1399	3005	6300	608	1857	2445	2127	1552	1508	1761	3661	1516	3590	5848	3969	2572	4957	1791	2011	7675	3982	2628	1176	10680	7680	9540	2011	1415	11120	1363	3358	4580	3969	10570	2216	1161	968	4256	1655	1517	1016	4202	1522	3147	1842	1944	429	6951	8820	1347	1143	1547	13700	9524	5538	5406	8305	3108	2030	1663	1729	1415	1788	1680	413	4643	1810	1439	1571	4062	16710	5149	1746	2431	10110	1635	2169	8377	1892	1082	1893	2488	3391	2069	5679
2020-12-01	582	1463	3523	1392	3605	2446	2841	1038	4848	7241	10680	1992	3953	2493	3669	3687	3362	5050	40950	3208	9800	5272	2526	15440	2218	7434	1494	29650	1634	1653	6771	1586	4116	15630	1463	5258	2313	1910	3437	4708	9960	8214	1911	3679	2661	2876	2801	1538	3674	6400	2455	1602	2321	9091	9076	2750	1255	1131	3837	2305	1195	1258	3820	975	19520	8805	1343	1477	6309	2034	3442	2607	1312	7976	1265	12130	3266	2327	10670	8226	658	1635	1538	2142	3678	1695	9990	3628	2206	1248	1669	930	1996	6479	2577	1326	2924	2697	1406	1300	1902	864	2505	7903	3559	2275	1111	2653	1631	4599	2180	4722	1728	3803	2160	4473	1386	3641	5029	982	4027	711	1768	6836	2508	1923	2395	6367	2522	1587	5734	2048	3896	1906	989	3680	2677	1924	2098	10590	3356	19640	7894	5666	4220	36230	17760	1005	4371	2684	3169	24240	6064	3244	513	949	31470	3017	7128	1167	968	3545	698	822	1922	5678	3983	1333	1856	2966	15870	4505	7542	916	2896	5296	1532	2172	4876	660	4182	6951	1807	2343	5643	8566	1756	17150	3547	2560	15070	3388	4925	4614	4130	4435	7362	2805	7948	4591	2067	2144	2047	3011	1003	12930	1097	3355	923	11140	2142	1744	3342	1574	489	758	13590	12710	2926	1574	10710	2154	1622	25730	5799	4097	5979	1528	1248	1403	3015	6342	613	1876	2478	2135	1580	1529	1768	3692	1541	3611	5907	3992	2607	5009	1813	2034	7694	4033	2639	1190	10730	7728	9670	2018	1433	11160	1378	3398	4644	3982	10630	2225	1174	977	4301	1670	1521	1032	4309	1540	3199	1880	1950	434	7038	8853	1365	1155	1556	13770	9581	5633	5424	8333	3122	2051	1676	1758	1430	1806	1686	418	4655	1841	1441	1582	4076	16720	5213	1752	2456	10150	1658	2194	8482	1899	1089	1900	2520	3412	2093	5697
2020-12-02	587	1473	3536	1404	3614	2476	2882	1050	4940	7323	10730	1998	4043	2518	3682	3709	3390	5126	41060	3246	9870	5284	2534	15550	2271	7503	1508	29810	1669	1664	6859	1607	4133	15740	1482	5321	2321	1934	3471	4746	10020	8283	1921	3723	2672	2939	2843	1560	3707	6428	2483	1620	2333	9118	9113	2772	1259	1141	3868	2325	1203	1271	3854	979	19610	8846	1356	1480	6382	2055	3480	2644	1322	8045	1278	12220	3281	2369	10730	8318	666	1658	1547	2170	3747	1711	10070	3645	2226	1262	1674	935	2015	6551	2613	1339	2932	2718	1412	1315	1939	873	2523	7949	3577	2309	1129	2732	1641	4669	2201	4732	1733	3835	2185	4523	1412	3665	5083	985	4056	721	1780	6949	2519	1949	2411	6439	2530	1602	5798	2058	3930	1931	997	3718	2700	1943	2118	10660	3396	19790	7913	5717	4242	36390	17810	1016	4421	2698	3217	24310	6155	3353	519	957	31580	3046	7412	1182	982	3588	704	828	1944	5704	4049	1346	1860	2989	15930	4524	7676	930	2903	5341	1542	2191	4919	667	4206	7020	1821	2352	5664	8597	1779	17230	3595	2577	15140	3398	4980	4676	4160	4452	7401	2838	8098	4610	2092	2161	2059	3035	1012	13010	1114	3381	934	11190	2165	1769	3342	1582	494	769	13660	12810	2942	1593	10750	2165	1646	25820	5819	4164	5999	1543	1262	1408	3025	6409	618	1894	2511	2143	1616	1550	1774	3724	1566	3634	5965	4014	2640	5055	1834	2056	7715	4082	2650	1203	10780	7778	9810	2022	1451	11200	1393	3438	4702	3998	10690	2234	1187	986	4347	1688	1525	1047	4411	1557	3260	1917	1957	438	7147	8887	1382	1167	1565	13840	9638	5729	5441	8364	3137	2071	1689	1786	1445	1824	1692	423	4671	1871	1444	1593	4091	16740	5274	1758	2480	10200	1681	2218	8589	1905	1095	1908	2552	3439	2117	5716
2020-12-03	592	1482	3549	1415	3625	2506	2913	1063	5005	7405	10760	2003	4135	2543	3694	3725	3418	5203	41170	3285	9920	5296	2541	15640	2311	7569	1523	29970	1680	1674	6934	1628	4149	15870	1502	5385	2329	1955	3507	4784	10060	8336	1931	3759	2682	2990	2892	1583	3739	6456	2511	1639	2339	9145	9150	2793	1263	1151	3895	2344	1210	1284	3889	984	19700	8888	1369	1484	6456	2077	3519	2686	1332	8114	1291	12280	3296	2412	10780	8391	674	1679	1556	2198	3819	1728	10150	3662	2247	1276	1679	936	2034	6630	2643	1353	2940	2739	1418	1330	1975	884	2542	7995	3595	2342	1147	2814	1650	4726	2222	4741	1737	3868	2208	4571	1438	3687	5136	988	4085	731	1791	7061	2529	1974	2427	6512	2537	1616	5866	2068	3964	1953	1005	3757	2724	1963	2139	10730	3436	19950	7929	5769	4264	36560	17870	1027	4471	2711	3266	24360	6234	3462	524	965	31660	3076	7704	1197	997	3631	711	834	1967	5728	4113	1358	1865	3008	15990	4542	7782	946	2910	5384	1551	2209	4962	674	4229	7092	1834	2362	5684	8629	1803	17300	3643	2598	15200	3407	5029	4737	4196	4467	7450	2871	8249	4629	2117	2177	2069	3056	1022	13050	1131	3407	958	11220	2189	1792	3342	1590	498	781	13720	12940	2958	1612	10790	2183	1670	25900	5840	4219	6017	1559	1275	1412	3034	6472	622	1912	2545	2152	1645	1571	1780	3755	1591	3654	6025	4036	2674	5092	1856	2078	7735	4132	2661	1216	10820	7826	9950	2022	1469	11240	1408	3477	4761	4013	10750	2243	1200	995	4392	1698	1529	1063	4515	1575	3304	1955	1963	443	7239	8912	1399	1178	1574	13910	9695	5814	5458	8401	3152	2092	1703	1815	1459	1841	1697	428	4684	1901	1447	1605	4105	16810	5338	1764	2505	10240	1704	2243	8688	1910	1101	1916	2584	3454	2142	5734
2020-12-04	597	1492	3562	1427	3637	2536	2944	1075	5058	7487	10800	2008	4229	2568	3706	3753	3446	5281	41300	3324	10000	5307	2549	15760	2344	7623	1537	30130	1701	1685	7005	1649	4165	15970	1522	5450	2337	1982	3539	4822	10090	8394	1942	3785	2693	3052	2944	1606	3773	6485	2539	1658	2353	9172	9187	2815	1267	1161	3930	2363	1217	1298	3925	988	19790	8930	1382	1488	6531	2099	3559	2721	1343	8183	1304	12340	3311	2454	10830	8474	682	1696	1565	2226	3892	1744	10230	3679	2267	1290	1683	936	2053	6702	2691	1366	2947	2760	1423	1346	2011	897	2562	8042	3616	2376	1165	2898	1659	4778	2244	4751	1742	3901	2223	4621	1464	3710	5190	992	4113	741	1803	7175	2539	1999	2443	6586	2544	1631	5918	2078	3998	1976	1014	3796	2743	1982	2160	10810	3476	20060	7944	5821	4286	36760	17930	1038	4521	2724	3315	24420	6306	3589	530	973	31770	3106	8001	1213	1009	3675	718	840	1991	5752	4177	1370	1869	3026	16050	4561	7889	961	2917	5427	1560	2228	5005	681	4253	7165	1847	2371	5704	8660	1827	17370	3692	2623	15250	3417	5092	4788	4236	4483	7489	2898	8403	4648	2143	2194	2080	3085	1032	13180	1148	3434	978	11290	2212	1816	3352	1598	503	793	13760	13100	2974	1631	10830	2192	1694	26030	5860	4285	6035	1574	1289	1416	3043	6520	627	1931	2578	2161	1676	1592	1786	3787	1617	3675	6085	4058	2709	5137	1877	2101	7755	4183	2672	1229	10850	7875	10090	2022	1487	11280	1424	3516	4821	4028	10810	2252	1213	1005	4437	1710	1533	1079	4621	1593	3354	1993	1969	448	7345	8955	1416	1190	1583	13980	9751	5905	5475	8430	3166	2113	1716	1845	1469	1859	1703	433	4695	1932	1449	1616	4120	16820	5402	1770	2530	10280	1727	2267	8803	1916	1108	1924	2616	3468	2167	5752
2020-12-05	602	1501	3575	1438	3637	2567	2960	1088	5104	7570	10820	2013	4325	2594	3719	3762	3474	5359	41300	3364	10040	5319	2556	15820	2382	7660	1552	30210	1719	1695	7056	1670	4180	16020	1543	5514	2345	1998	3558	4861	10110	8428	1952	3802	2704	3098	2976	1628	3806	6513	2566	1677	2360	9198	9224	2837	1271	1171	3951	2382	1224	1311	3960	992	19880	8972	1395	1491	6606	2121	3598	2746	1353	8253	1318	12380	3326	2497	10890	8530	690	1709	1575	2255	3966	1761	10310	3696	2288	1304	1688	939	2072	6762	2716	1380	2955	2781	1428	1361	2047	903	2581	8088	3626	2410	1183	2984	1668	4818	2265	4760	1747	3935	2235	4670	1490	3734	5244	995	4142	752	1814	7290	2550	2025	2459	6659	2552	1646	5962	2088	4033	2001	1022	3836	2758	2002	2181	10880	3517	20170	7951	5873	4308	36850	17980	1049	4573	2737	3364	24450	6362	3682	536	981	31800	3137	8228	1228	1016	3720	724	846	2014	5777	4240	1382	1873	3032	16110	4580	7970	977	2924	5471	1570	2247	5048	688	4277	7238	1860	2380	5724	8692	1851	17450	3742	2636	15270	3427	5130	4832	4258	4499	7516	2919	8561	4667	2169	2210	2091	3096	1042	13220	1165	3460	989	11310	2236	1840	3354	1605	507	806	13790	13150	2990	1651	10850	2193	1719	26070	5881	4329	6054	1590	1303	1421	3053	6550	631	1949	2612	2170	1697	1614	1792	3818	1642	3696	6145	4080	2743	5161	1899	2124	7774	4234	2683	1242	10870	7924	10230	2022	1505	11320	1439	3556	4881	4043	10840	2261	1226	1014	4483	1722	1537	1094	4727	1611	3383	2031	1976	453	7392	8979	1433	1202	1592	14060	9809	5986	5493	8446	3181	2133	1730	1874	1477	1877	1709	439	4707	1962	1452	1627	4135	16820	5466	1776	2555	10300	1750	2292	8858	1922	1114	1931	2649	3483	2192	5771
2020-12-06	607	1511	3588	1449	3648	2598	2993	1101	5196	7653	10880	2018	4424	2619	3731	3785	3503	5437	41490	3404	10070	5330	2564	15860	2406	7696	1566	30340	1729	1706	7109	1691	4196	16100	1563	5579	2353	2020	3573	4900	10160	8475	1962	3826	2715	3135	2977	1652	3839	6541	2594	1696	2375	9226	9261	2858	1275	1181	3972	2401	1231	1325	3996	997	19970	9014	1408	1495	6682	2143	3638	2776	1363	8322	1331	12440	3341	2540	10940	8587	698	1725	1584	2284	4041	1778	10390	3713	2309	1318	1693	943	2091	6849	2744	1394	2962	2802	1434	1377	2083	908	2601	8134	3640	2445	1202	3074	1677	4863	2287	4770	1751	3968	2249	4719	1517	3757	5298	998	4170	763	1825	7405	2560	2052	2475	6733	2559	1661	6003	2098	4067	2014	1030	3875	2773	2022	2203	10950	3558	20270	7964	5925	4330	36990	18040	1060	4625	2750	3414	24500	6421	3775	542	990	31920	3167	8525	1244	1028	3765	731	852	2038	5801	4303	1395	1877	3054	16160	4598	8048	993	2931	5514	1579	2266	5091	695	4301	7311	1873	2390	5744	8724	1875	17520	3792	2651	15320	3436	5150	4873	4275	4516	7542	2941	8721	4686	2195	2227	2101	3110	1052	13270	1182	3487	1010	11370	2260	1864	3357	1613	512	818	13830	13220	3007	1671	10880	2207	1744	26160	5902	4377	6072	1606	1317	1425	3062	6604	636	1968	2646	2180	1707	1635	1799	3850	1668	3717	6205	4102	2777	5197	1921	2147	7794	4285	2695	1256	10910	7972	10370	2029	1523	11360	1454	3596	4943	4059	10880	2270	1239	1023	4529	1729	1541	1111	4835	1629	3415	2070	1982	458	7458	9005	1450	1214	1601	14130	9866	6096	5510	8478	3196	2154	1744	1904	1482	1895	1714	444	4723	1993	1454	1638	4150	16860	5530	1782	2580	10320	1774	2317	8928	1928	1121	1939	2681	3500	2217	5789

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-30 to 2020-12-06

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-11-29	572	1442	3497	1370	3565	2385	2752	1013	4644	7074	10512	1981	3777	2443	3643	3627	3306	4899	40433	3131	9697	5249	2510	15153	2079	7237	1464	29241	1567	1632	6537	1544	4082	15387	1423	5129	2298	1842	3351	4633	9758	8095	1890	3579	2641	2750	2632	1493	3608	6340	2399	1566	2284	9044	9001	2704	1247	1110	3744	2266	1181	1232	3751	965	19325	8726	1317	1470	6160	1992	3365	2493	1290	7834	1239	11905	3234	2240	10575	7958	642	1552	1518	2085	3540	1662	9837	3597	2166	1221	1660	909	1958	6246	2492	1298	2907	2654	1396	1269	1824	822	2467	7808	3461	2207	1075	2496	1612	4402	2137	4703	1718	3737	2044	4373	1335	3591	4920	976	3968	690	1745	6610	2487	1873	2361	6221	2505	1558	5540	2028	3829	1814	973	3601	2597	1886	2056	10428	3275	19253	7829	5562	4175	35822	17651	983	4272	2656	3072	24093	5879	3050	501	933	31175	2957	6490	1137	909	3459	684	810	1876	5625	3843	1307	1846	2949	15752	4471	7306	885	2883	5206	1515	2136	4788	645	4138	6811	1780	2324	5609	8505	1709	17004	3449	2451	14836	3370	4781	4476	4014	4400	7211	2731	7652	4553	2018	2110	2025	2931	984	12711	1063	3302	856	11021	2095	1695	3309	1558	480	734	13402	12421	2891	1537	10554	2120	1573	25505	5759	3923	5937	1497	1221	1394	2994	6222	603	1839	2411	2120	1469	1487	1754	3629	1491	3565	5790	3947	2538	4888	1769	1989	7652	3933	2617	1163	10554	7627	9401	1983	1398	11078	1348	3318	4520	3957	10459	2207	1149	959	4208	1643	1514	1001	4097	1504	3069	1804	1937	425	6780	8726	1330	1131	1537	13622	9467	5408	5389	8229	3093	2009	1650	1701	1386	1770	1675	408	4624	1780	1436	1560	4048	16596	5088	1739	2407	10026	1611	2145	8165	1885	1076	1884	2455	3365	2045	5659
2020-11-30	575	1448	3521	1391	3600	2414	2794	1021	4743	7175	10570	1987	3862	2466	3668	3653	3328	4971	40740	3159	9760	5274	2531	15250	2135	7286	1479	29410	1605	1639	6620	1564	4096	15500	1442	5192	2315	1871	3372	4665	9820	8148	1900	3624	2663	2825	2658	1519	3634	6368	2425	1579	2298	9105	9041	2722	1253	1121	3783	2287	1184	1241	3773	969	19450	8790	1329	1476	6228	2009	3393	2539	1300	7873	1248	12000	3248	2289	10670	8074	649	1577	1530	2108	3590	1680	9880	3628	2180	1237	1669	912	1974	6336	2529	1311	2928	2673	1408	1285	1856	836	2479	7841	3485	2236	1089	2569	1620	4471	2155	4723	1726	3759	2070	4426	1358	3616	4987	982	3995	698	1756	6722	2503	1897	2369	6284	2516	1572	5605	2037	3855	1839	979	3640	2620	1901	2076	10490	3312	19400	7855	5612	4199	36030	17780	991	4328	2671	3120	24160	5955	3177	507	941	31310	2977	6772	1146	928	3508	693	815	1894	5651	3896	1321	1853	2977	15800	4507	7424	895	2898	5249	1530	2166	4825	653	4179	6866	1792	2343	5661	8566	1728	17070	3492	2476	14910	3389	4823	4549	4037	4432	7250	2759	7777	4570	2035	2128	2035	2960	990	12830	1079	3326	881	11080	2112	1722	3326	1566	484	741	13460	12530	2904	1552	10600	2134	1594	25610	5790	3988	5981	1509	1232	1404	3009	6277	608	1855	2461	2133	1495	1506	1762	3662	1508	3597	5833	3967	2569	4952	1786	2006	7682	3972	2639	1175	10610	7666	9520	2000	1413	11130	1363	3355	4631	3988	10520	2223	1161	965	4242	1656	1521	1012	4193	1520	3127	1843	1950	434	6906	8773	1348	1144	1545	13710	9560	5516	5435	8267	3110	2029	1659	1736	1398	1786	1685	412	4646	1806	1444	1574	4076	16690	5140	1750	2427	10060	1651	2170	8270	1891	1079	1897	2484	3384	2062	5675
2020-12-01	579	1454	3551	1406	3633	2442	2831	1032	4829	7265	10630	1991	3958	2491	3699	3665	3355	5050	41140	3195	9820	5301	2554	15330	2197	7339	1491	29570	1633	1649	6714	1585	4118	15600	1461	5261	2333	1897	3388	4703	9870	8206	1917	3656	2689	2889	2684	1542	3664	6395	2449	1597	2308	9174	9075	2736	1263	1130	3817	2307	1188	1254	3801	972	19570	8873	1339	1486	6307	2032	3430	2583	1311	7935	1258	12110	3266	2341	10800	8160	657	1598	1542	2133	3657	1697	9950	3669	2200	1251	1680	916	1991	6423	2562	1322	2949	2692	1421	1298	1893	848	2500	7883	3509	2272	1106	2636	1627	4543	2174	4746	1737	3788	2097	4472	1387	3636	5042	989	4026	708	1775	6825	2523	1919	2377	6354	2529	1587	5677	2048	3889	1864	988	3683	2644	1922	2095	10540	3352	19530	7877	5661	4223	36190	17930	1002	4369	2691	3176	24220	6028	3263	512	950	31460	3002	7032	1158	947	3558	700	820	1915	5679	3955	1332	1862	2999	15860	4553	7560	909	2917	5296	1546	2196	4877	660	4228	6932	1809	2367	5717	8644	1751	17150	3534	2503	14970	3412	4857	4606	4055	4472	7285	2792	7909	4589	2057	2147	2046	2989	997	12910	1095	3353	892	11160	2136	1744	3345	1574	487	750	13520	12670	2920	1571	10630	2150	1616	25730	5838	4052	6031	1523	1244	1415	3025	6315	611	1871	2495	2147	1514	1527	1769	3699	1532	3630	5887	3987	2601	5004	1804	2027	7714	4021	2665	1187	10660	7717	9660	2013	1428	11190	1379	3393	4758	4024	10560	2245	1174	973	4283	1670	1531	1028	4290	1539	3180	1886	1961	443	6994	8803	1364	1153	1553	13800	9650	5601	5482	8299	3125	2048	1671	1774	1412	1802	1698	417	4659	1837	1450	1585	4109	16770	5206	1765	2450	10090	1676	2194	8373	1897	1085	1909	2512	3399	2084	5698
2020-12-02	584	1460	3581	1421	3665	2470	2870	1044	4928	7354	10690	1994	4054	2514	3730	3681	3382	5128	41520	3231	9870	5328	2576	15410	2247	7385	1504	29710	1669	1659	6806	1605	4141	15690	1479	5330	2351	1923	3407	4739	9920	8267	1934	3695	2714	2956	2705	1568	3693	6421	2475	1615	2318	9242	9111	2750	1273	1139	3850	2327	1192	1266	3827	975	19690	8957	1351	1494	6386	2054	3468	2628	1322	7999	1269	12190	3284	2394	10930	8258	665	1621	1556	2159	3720	1712	10000	3711	2220	1264	1690	919	2008	6508	2598	1335	2967	2711	1433	1318	1930	859	2518	7926	3531	2308	1122	2707	1634	4615	2193	4769	1747	3818	2124	4519	1417	3655	5088	996	4056	718	1793	6941	2546	1943	2386	6423	2541	1599	5744	2060	3923	1885	997	3725	2668	1943	2115	10590	3392	19670	7896	5706	4244	36340	18070	1013	4417	2712	3232	24280	6108	3376	517	960	31590	3027	7298	1170	964	3609	708	825	1935	5703	4013	1343	1872	3035	15910	4598	7696	923	2937	5340	1562	2226	4930	671	4273	7000	1826	2393	5773	8722	1774	17220	3579	2529	15040	3435	4896	4666	4072	4512	7317	2823	8041	4607	2079	2162	2056	3012	1005	13000	1112	3380	905	11230	2160	1763	3362	1582	491	758	13570	12780	2941	1590	10660	2166	1639	25850	5886	4115	6081	1538	1257	1425	3039	6370	615	1887	2538	2162	1539	1547	1776	3734	1556	3657	5940	4005	2632	5051	1821	2048	7745	4069	2692	1198	10710	7769	9780	2026	1447	11250	1394	3431	4904	4060	10590	2269	1187	979	4322	1685	1541	1044	4388	1558	3238	1926	1970	453	7099	8827	1380	1163	1563	13890	9750	5690	5530	8331	3140	2068	1683	1804	1425	1818	1707	423	4675	1869	1458	1599	4141	16850	5272	1777	2471	10120	1701	2217	8478	1904	1090	1921	2541	3416	2106	5719
2020-12-03	588	1466	3609	1436	3695	2498	2904	1056	5003	7441	10740	1997	4153	2536	3761	3695	3409	5207	41890	3267	9930	5356	2594	15490	2294	7426	1516	29860	1680	1669	6890	1627	4163	15790	1498	5399	2367	1946	3428	4776	9960	8323	1953	3730	2740	3015	2727	1591	3722	6447	2500	1633	2327	9312	9143	2764	1283	1149	3880	2348	1196	1278	3854	977	19800	9042	1362	1499	6466	2077	3505	2676	1332	8057	1279	12260	3304	2446	11060	8340	673	1643	1568	2184	3787	1725	10060	3753	2240	1274	1701	920	2026	6596	2632	1346	2985	2730	1446	1332	1967	871	2535	7968	3553	2344	1138	2775	1641	4684	2212	4792	1758	3849	2151	4566	1446	3673	5137	1003	4086	728	1811	7054	2567	1966	2395	6492	2554	1611	5812	2071	3957	1906	1006	3767	2692	1964	2135	10640	3432	19800	7915	5753	4265	36480	18210	1025	4457	2732	3288	24330	6185	3486	522	966	31700	3052	7562	1182	981	3661	715	830	1956	5728	4070	1354	1881	3067	15970	4643	7807	938	2955	5388	1578	2256	4983	681	4320	7069	1843	2417	5830	8801	1797	17290	3623	2555	15110	3458	4929	4726	4090	4552	7353	2855	8173	4626	2102	2179	2067	3033	1012	13070	1129	3407	928	11290	2184	1784	3380	1591	495	765	13620	12900	2961	1608	10680	2183	1662	25960	5934	4174	6132	1552	1270	1435	3054	6416	618	1903	2573	2176	1559	1568	1782	3766	1578	3684	5994	4021	2665	5087	1838	2068	7773	4117	2719	1210	10760	7819	9910	2036	1461	11310	1408	3470	5041	4097	10630	2292	1199	986	4362	1697	1552	1060	4476	1577	3288	1968	1984	463	7184	8848	1395	1172	1569	13950	9850	5766	5578	8364	3155	2087	1695	1826	1438	1834	1721	428	4687	1901	1463	1609	4175	16940	5338	1792	2494	10140	1725	2246	8572	1911	1096	1936	2570	3431	2128	5739
2020-12-04	594	1472	3635	1453	3726	2526	2939	1068	5086	7525	10800	2000	4252	2560	3793	3723	3436	5286	42340	3303	9980	5383	2612	15570	2338	7462	1529	30010	1703	1678	6977	1648	4186	15870	1517	5469	2385	1976	3446	4821	10020	8379	1971	3761	2767	3082	2752	1618	3752	6473	2524	1652	2337	9375	9179	2777	1292	1158	3910	2368	1200	1291	3887	979	19920	9127	1373	1505	6546	2102	3543	2725	1340	8110	1293	12320	3322	2501	11200	8444	681	1664	1580	2209	3851	1747	10110	3795	2260	1288	1712	920	2043	6684	2674	1362	3008	2749	1459	1351	2005	886	2553	8010	3576	2381	1155	2847	1647	4752	2231	4815	1769	3886	2177	4614	1477	3693	5199	1010	4117	738	1836	7172	2592	1991	2403	6563	2568	1626	5878	2083	3991	1925	1016	3810	2715	1986	2158	10690	3473	19920	7935	5818	4283	36670	18350	1036	4502	2753	3346	24390	6263	3621	529	975	31850	3077	7868	1194	998	3716	723	836	1977	5757	4131	1365	1891	3097	16020	4702	7923	952	2974	5437	1595	2287	5036	689	4368	7136	1860	2443	5887	8880	1820	17370	3665	2582	15190	3481	4969	4777	4108	4591	7390	2886	8308	4644	2125	2196	2078	3063	1019	13160	1146	3434	949	11370	2208	1807	3399	1600	499	772	13650	13070	2980	1627	10710	2198	1685	26110	5983	4239	6182	1566	1283	1444	3067	6457	621	1919	2609	2191	1586	1591	1788	3792	1602	3708	6059	4043	2697	5136	1855	2089	7801	4166	2745	1222	10810	7871	10040	2048	1477	11360	1424	3507	5164	4134	10670	2315	1213	996	4401	1710	1562	1077	4597	1596	3346	2014	1992	475	7297	8889	1412	1183	1578	14070	9950	5867	5625	8401	3169	2106	1707	1860	1453	1850	1734	434	4698	1934	1469	1622	4207	17020	5404	1806	2517	10170	1742	2273	8691	1918	1101	1950	2599	3444	2150	5771
2020-12-05	598	1479	3662	1466	3750	2555	2968	1080	5167	7592	10860	2004	4361	2581	3825	3734	3464	5368	42700	3341	10020	5411	2627	15640	2381	7490	1542	30140	1722	1687	7065	1670	4208	15940	1535	5541	2399	2002	3470	4853	10060	8432	1989	3781	2793	3141	2771	1637	3782	6497	2547	1669	2346	9434	9210	2792	1302	1167	3935	2388	1204	1304	3912	982	20000	9214	1384	1511	6628	2124	3581	2768	1349	8167	1304	12380	3340	2551	11330	8517	689	1684	1589	2235	3911	1757	10170	3838	2280	1304	1722	923	2061	6771	2709	1372	3025	2769	1472	1364	2043	898	2568	8053	3597	2418	1172	2921	1654	4819	2250	4838	1780	3914	2203	4658	1510	3708	5246	1016	4148	749	1852	7285	2613	2013	2412	6632	2581	1637	5942	2095	4026	1952	1026	3854	2737	2007	2178	10730	3514	20020	7952	5858	4296	36790	18480	1048	4543	2774	3405	24430	6332	3716	534	982	31940	3102	8104	1206	1014	3771	730	841	1999	5779	4196	1376	1901	3116	16080	4748	8002	967	2994	5485	1611	2318	5091	703	4412	7198	1877	2467	5945	8960	1844	17440	3712	2609	15240	3504	4998	4819	4125	4626	7420	2915	8438	4664	2148	2210	2089	3075	1027	13220	1163	3462	974	11420	2233	1825	3418	1608	503	779	13690	13140	2997	1644	10740	2214	1708	26220	6033	4297	6231	1580	1296	1451	3082	6498	624	1935	2641	2205	1608	1611	1794	3822	1625	3732	6113	4059	2730	5164	1872	2110	7825	4216	2768	1235	10850	7920	10150	2058	1490	11430	1438	3545	5359	4171	10710	2337	1226	1008	4440	1721	1573	1094	4687	1616	3391	2058	2000	486	7367	8908	1428	1191	1584	14150	10060	5950	5673	8434	3182	2126	1720	1892	1466	1866	1744	439	4709	1968	1474	1631	4238	17110	5472	1818	2539	10180	1767	2295	8782	1923	1106	1961	2628	3458	2173	5793
2020-12-06	602	1485	3689	1479	3774	2584	3001	1092	5236	7662	10920	2006	4465	2601	3858	3746	3492	5439	43090	3378	10050	5440	2643	15700	2424	7509	1555	30260	1735	1696	7146	1692	4232	15990	1551	5613	2412	2026	3488	4886	10110	8488	2008	3810	2820	3193	2784	1657	3812	6520	2574	1687	2355	9491	9240	2806	1312	1177	3957	2409	1208	1317	3937	985	20090	9301	1395	1517	6711	2147	3620	2817	1358	8225	1314	12430	3360	2600	11470	8580	697	1707	1599	2261	3972	1767	10230	3881	2301	1315	1732	926	2078	6863	2743	1382	3041	2788	1486	1374	2083	911	2585	8096	3620	2456	1189	2985	1661	4892	2269	4861	1791	3942	2230	4704	1543	3724	5287	1022	4179	760	1870	7380	2630	2036	2421	6704	2593	1648	6006	2107	4061	1974	1035	3899	2760	2029	2196	10770	3556	20110	7969	5907	4312	36870	18600	1059	4572	2795	3464	24460	6404	3795	539	987	32060	3128	8364	1219	1033	3821	739	846	2020	5800	4256	1387	1911	3140	16140	4793	8102	981	3013	5529	1628	2349	5146	712	4456	7258	1895	2489	6004	9041	1867	17510	3755	2635	15310	3527	5022	4857	4140	4673	7454	2942	8570	4683	2172	2221	2100	3088	1035	13280	1181	3490	997	11470	2258	1844	3435	1616	507	785	13720	13210	3012	1661	10770	2230	1732	26340	6084	4356	6279	1595	1309	1460	3096	6535	627	1952	2678	2220	1620	1635	1800	3850	1649	3754	6168	4076	2763	5193	1889	2132	7849	4266	2792	1247	10900	7973	10270	2067	1502	11490	1454	3580	5540	4209	10730	2360	1239	1014	4476	1731	1584	1111	4806	1636	3435	2099	2009	494	7421	8931	1443	1199	1590	14220	10160	6033	5718	8468	3195	2145	1732	1920	1477	1882	1753	445	4719	2002	1478	1637	4269	17160	5540	1829	2561	10180	1780	2318	8851	1928	1112	1972	2657	3472	2197	5815

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-29 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-29