COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-01

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	11-04	10-21	10-27	11-08	10-21	--	10-26	10-31	11-19	11-08	10-13	10-04	--	11-02	10-24	10-18	11-05	11-08	11-03	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-24	10-12	11-16	10-31	10-26	10-24	11-17	10-15	11-08	10-24	10-12	10-27	10-27	--	11-02	11-03	10-04	09-27	10-26	10-29	11-02	10-05	10-24	--	10-25	11-19	11-01	10-13	11-05	11-01	10-29	10-27	10-31	10-22	10-28	10-24	10-11	10-13	10-30	10-31	11-02	10-30	10-03	11-03	11-02	10-18	11-09	11-09	11-04	11-19	11-01	10-26	11-02	10-14	10-28	--	11-02	11-04	--	11-01	10-25	11-03	11-03	10-26	10-30	11-02	11-03	11-09	10-21	10-27	11-05	--	11-10	11-03	10-11	09-27	11-01	11-03	--	11-10	10-11	10-27	10-11	11-17	11-03	11-20	10-30	11-17	10-26	09-27	10-25	10-17	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	10-27	11-03	--	11-05	11-06	11-02	11-17	10-27	11-04	11-01	11-02	11-07	10-29	10-11	--	04-21	10-30	10-13	11-03	10-26	11-01	10-13	10-27	09-29	10-24	10-07	09-27	11-01	11-09	--	11-01	11-20	09-29	--	--	--	10-24	09-22	10-26	--	11-01	11-15	--	11-08	10-31	11-08	11-01	--	10-21	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-01	11-20	11-01	10-14	10-25	11-03	11-01	11-04	11-13	11-01	11-03	11-03	11-01	10-25	11-01	11-09	09-30	11-01	11-02	10-25	11-01	10-11	--	11-01	11-03	10-13	--	11-20	11-03	10-26	11-01	10-13	10-13	11-01	10-23	--	10-11	11-13	10-17	11-01	--	10-09	10-12	11-03	11-02	10-21	10-29	11-01	11-05	09-30	11-03	11-03	09-29	10-28	11-02	10-31	11-01	11-05	10-28	10-26	10-31	11-01	11-01	11-20	11-09	11-02	10-25	10-30	10-13	11-03	10-25	11-03	11-01	--	10-12	11-01	11-03	10-06	10-25	10-31	11-03	10-18	10-12	11-01	10-23	10-29	11-01	--	11-04	11-17	10-31	10-18	10-31	11-01	10-21	10-28	10-05	11-01	11-04	11-19	11-03	--	--	10-25	--	11-05	10-13	11-08	11-01	11-02	10-26	10-30	--	11-01	10-21	10-17	10-26	10-21	11-08	11-03	10-26	10-29	10-23	10-05	11-01	10-23	10-13	10-23	10-21	11-08	11-02	11-02	10-04	--	--	11-02	10-26	10-22	10-29	10-26	10-11	10-31	10-06
Peak daily increment	8	27	79	43	64		41	19	91	96	191	28		34	77	72	37	90	600	60	163	98	55	235	50	136	21	446	27	50	99	26	71	321	25		37	31	57	70	160	140	46	47	52		40	26	49	132	32	26	35	126	143	54	23	14	62	32	22	19	63	20	291	137	20	30	86	27	51	48	27	167	27	249	56		245	115		36	28	36	102	31	222	75	29	18	32	16	25		41	28	55	76	26	19		15	41	129	71	37	23	65	27	75	33	71	33	55	42			66		15	72		40	132	45	22	43	95	51	22	76	27	59		16	52	35	27	29	279	47	359	152	73	85	542	248	13		59	64	528				14	610	61		26	21		15	10	31	89		26	33	55	392	83	126	21	51	158	26	47	105	20	85	115	34	55	88	128	27	612	66	39	262	47	64		80	81	101		137	92	43	37	41	42	17	203		64	20	199	42		66	18	7	16	242	229	81	27	183	35	30	438	109	73	92	22	18	24	65	139	12	26	45	81	38	32	27	70	34	76	85	74		61	33	30	117	82	56	18	183	125	188	32	30	154		48	136	65	177	45	18	15	88	21	18	19	116	23			47		114	138	19	18	25	250	158		75	133	58	26	22	42	18	29	27	8	91	34	21	24	64	331	83	31	37	137			135	37	15	30	46	65	40	130
Days since peak	27	41	35	23	41		36	31	12	23	49	58		29	38	44	26	23	28	29	44	51	38	50	15	31	36	38	14	47	23	38	50	35	35		29	28	58	65	36	33	29	57	38		37	12	30	49	26	30	33	35	31	40	34	38	51	49	32	31	29	32	59	28	29	44	22	22	27	12	30	36	29	48	34		29	27		30	37	28	28	36	32	29	28	22	41	35	26		21	28	51	65	30	28		21	51	35	51	14	28	11	32	14	36	65	37	45	28			36		35	28		26	25	29	14	35	27	30	29	24	33	51		224	32	49	28	36	30	49	35	63	38	55	65	30	22		30	11	63				38	70	36		30	16		23	31	23	30		41	29	65	66	30	11	30	48	37	28	30	27	18	30	28	28	30	37	30	22	62	30	29	37	30	51		30	28	49		11	28	36	30	49	49	30	39		51	18	45	30		53	50	28	29	41	33	30	26	62	28	28	63	34	29	31	30	26	34	36	31	30	30	11	22	29	37	32	49	28	37	28	30		50	30	28	56	37	31	28	44	50	30	39	33	30		27	14	31	44	31	30	41	34	57	30	27	12	28			37		26	49	23	30	29	36	32		30	41	45	36	41	23	28	36	33	39	57	30	39	49	39	41	23	29	29	58			29	36	40	33	36	51	31	56
Last total	581	1464	3568	1406	3605	2477	2857	1047	4848	7266	10636	1995	4007	2496	3784	3701	3378	5103	41112	3189	9827	5300	2554	15334	2193	7326	1506	29578	1619	1672	6677	1600	4147	15563	1470	5345	2348	1916	3397	4700	9932	8261	1915	3658	2701	2911	2661	1539	3701	6410	2457	1588	2316	9187	9123	2741	1269	1138	3806	2322	1194	1253	3800	981	19544	8876	1349	1487	6367	2050	3446	2604	1321	7946	1258	12144	3278	2393	10770	8135	660	1617	1542	2177	3636	1681	10053	3681	2213	1250	1680	921	2011	6445	2572	1351	2961	2710	1419	1313	1928	847	2519	7870	3537	2279	1112	2627	1663	4554	2190	4751	1742	3801	2074	4528	1415	3639	5066	995	4026	736	1792	6881	2522	1911	2388	6397	2550	1596	5658	2054	3871	1880	986	3713	2657	1932	2095	10597	3402	19541	7875	5710	4230	36208	17981	999	4378	2712	3179	24243	6110	3251	525	956	31512	2998	7040	1170	937	3564	701	831	1921	5708	4003	1336	1869	3019	15877	4569	7593	906	2916	5325	1558	2234	4892	664	4215	6939	1801	2363	5712	8686	1750	17186	3504	2496	14969	3440	4876	4607	4060	4486	7310	2812	7913	4618	2047	2175	2052	2970	1009	12874	1103	3358	903	11220	2140	1755	3362	1577	490	744	13518	12637	2961	1576	10616	2152	1621	25775	5851	4028	6040	1538	1246	1420	3039	6359	610	1901	2532	2152	1520	1518	1783	3687	1566	3621	5904	3998	2631	5032	1806	2044	7734	4003	2697	1207	10696	7729	9745	2009	1429	11212	1398	3407	4822	4039	10572	2242	1197	978	4270	1680	1531	1031	4271	1544	3204	1908	1954	451	7018	8794	1387	1151	1567	13841	9650	5656	5527	8311	3142	2058	1686	1781	1428	1814	1700	430	4656	1833	1456	1604	4141	16828	5238	1761	2463	10088	1690	2214	8378	1920	1089	1909	2546	3410	2079	5694
Last daily increment	4	10	27	18	17	47	81	10	88	81	44	4	106	25	97	33	36	98	315	27	50	26	19	93	43	32	19	148	27	27	73	33	36	56	18	82	14	35	23	28	63	69	16	39	14	79	9	13	40	29	25	8	11	60	52	19	10	15	32	19	4	10	20	9	95	62	16	12	94	25	40	39	16	47	6	109	26	62	79	83	12	26	12	34	46	6	107	36	19	17	12	8	27	75	30	19	15	20	12	15	62	17	13	26	30	38	12	65	16	87	26	19	8	27	11	71	29	18	70	10	26	24	26	121	13	14	14	99	23	20	50	9	16	24	8	49	15	31	16	68	57	136	19	67	27	184	152	11	54	23	53	55	94	100	14	11	151	12	259	14	9	55	9	8	16	41	70	10	10	27	61	44	120	14	12	48	17	38	47	6	39	55	5	18	35	85	20	70	26	24	75	36	41	52	16	28	47	36	110	27	7	23	10	22	14	62	18	31	30	59	20	34	22	8	4	4	52	122	27	15	24	19	25	111	34	53	53	14	12	6	22	67	2	17	57	14	21	15	11	32	48	22	45	20	49	62	25	28	41	31	31	15	81	42	181	10	14	53	23	32	117	39	45	12	20	11	27	16	8	13	76	28	59	46	2	9	118	26	24	8	19	97	85	123	67	34	17	26	16	42	16	24	11	12	14	31	9	24	42	114	56	10	25	19	47	24	88	12	2	10	37	16	16	15
Last week	17	57	148	89	136	223	232	63	508	488	324	37	551	144	255	152	145	494	1809	159	369	157	95	449	253	236	110	953	112	78	402	129	142	549	128	475	95	158	124	198	329	403	63	195	161	356	65	127	205	197	167	77	86	371	289	118	46	75	179	140	29	52	121	39	661	417	71	34	455	127	204	249	78	279	47	531	137	312	630	443	45	126	57	190	243	91	479	223	106	53	64	19	119	496	224	103	118	114	83	92	226	58	87	210	147	188	99	325	96	353	128	133	54	149	77	381	166	112	352	46	189	72	98	684	98	128	64	413	102	72	329	71	143	148	27	253	136	107	108	461	284	793	122	313	145	997	767	47	281	129	289	369	499	573	46	43	787	112	1424	74	71	318	42	37	118	201	373	92	53	184	354	259	695	59	87	268	103	225	257	45	232	308	76	101	288	437	127	434	197	110	356	159	221	342	132	199	226	194	761	150	122	127	64	126	43	436	111	152	112	447	108	175	114	54	27	33	293	634	139	84	168	84	140	709	187	323	264	99	58	61	110	338	32	124	240	73	107	84	57	156	140	164	286	132	241	286	106	121	207	204	180	98	293	274	796	51	77	348	100	240	713	230	267	104	92	43	202	83	43	74	507	95	292	258	55	61	563	201	128	62	66	538	518	558	320	221	128	148	65	153	82	105	69	40	100	179	35	76	208	546	333	76	134	150	178	160	557	63	26	81	215	111	84	105
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																			29														75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																			1														6	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-02 to 2020-12-08

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-01	581	1464	3568	1406	3605	2477	2857	1047	4848	7266	10636	1995	4007	2496	3784	3701	3378	5103	41112	3189	9827	5300	2554	15334	2193	7326	1506	29578	1619	1672	6677	1600	4147	15563	1470	5345	2348	1916	3397	4700	9932	8261	1915	3658	2701	2911	2661	1539	3701	6410	2457	1588	2316	9187	9123	2741	1269	1138	3806	2322	1194	1253	3800	981	19544	8876	1349	1487	6367	2050	3446	2604	1321	7946	1258	12144	3278	2393	10770	8135	660	1617	1542	2177	3636	1681	10053	3681	2213	1250	1680	921	2011	6445	2572	1351	2961	2710	1419	1313	1928	847	2519	7870	3537	2279	1112	2627	1663	4554	2190	4751	1742	3801	2074	4528	1415	3639	5066	995	4026	736	1792	6881	2522	1911	2388	6397	2550	1596	5658	2054	3871	1880	986	3713	2657	1932	2095	10597	3402	19541	7875	5710	4230	36208	17981	999	4378	2712	3179	24243	6110	3251	525	956	31512	2998	7040	1170	937	3564	701	831	1921	5708	4003	1336	1869	3019	15877	4569	7593	906	2916	5325	1558	2234	4892	664	4215	6939	1801	2363	5712	8686	1750	17186	3504	2496	14969	3440	4876	4607	4060	4486	7310	2812	7913	4618	2047	2175	2052	2970	1009	12874	1103	3358	903	11220	2140	1755	3362	1577	490	744	13518	12637	2961	1576	10616	2152	1621	25775	5851	4028	6040	1538	1246	1420	3039	6359	610	1901	2532	2152	1520	1518	1783	3687	1566	3621	5904	3998	2631	5032	1806	2044	7734	4003	2697	1207	10696	7729	9745	2009	1429	11212	1398	3407	4822	4039	10572	2242	1197	978	4270	1680	1531	1031	4271	1544	3204	1908	1954	451	7018	8794	1387	1151	1567	13841	9650	5656	5527	8311	3142	2058	1686	1781	1428	1814	1700	430	4656	1833	1456	1604	4141	16828	5238	1761	2463	10088	1690	2214	8378	1920	1089	1909	2546	3410	2079	5694
2020-12-02	586	1475	3584	1421	3651	2514	2893	1060	4915	7350	10710	2002	4088	2521	3859	3727	3407	5185	41540	3225	9930	5320	2601	15540	2257	7380	1522	29760	1663	1686	6827	1623	4171	15730	1490	5417	2370	1948	3435	4772	10080	8334	1930	3723	2731	3002	2674	1562	3736	6442	2485	1605	2338	9310	9165	2751	1278	1149	3838	2342	1200	1265	3830	985	19670	9002	1362	1495	6470	2072	3484	2654	1334	7998	1269	12260	3297	2460	10880	8223	673	1642	1553	2208	3698	1695	10130	3768	2233	1264	1690	927	2031	6472	2609	1373	2970	2731	1433	1329	1969	859	2538	7933	3587	2314	1130	2685	1676	4664	2212	4838	1753	3812	2089	4616	1451	3663	5066	1004	4046	742	1816	6999	2537	1932	2407	6473	2567	1611	5780	2066	3894	1930	993	3755	2701	1952	2115	10720	3447	19670	7934	5765	4253	36750	18120	1025	4433	2736	3229	24340	6170	3377	538	965	31700	3008	7404	1184	956	3631	708	837	1943	5749	4020	1349	1886	3071	15940	4610	7705	920	2929	5366	1576	2271	4979	672	4240	6964	1814	2378	5757	8765	1773	17250	3516	2522	15100	3467	4943	4624	4121	4517	7403	2850	8058	4643	2069	2196	2066	3019	1019	13020	1117	3386	921	11330	2166	1788	3379	1595	494	752	13610	12800	2981	1595	10720	2183	1645	25930	5884	4139	6083	1554	1259	1430	3098	6473	613	1921	2571	2164	1544	1533	1794	3718	1592	3658	5953	4020	2694	5081	1812	2067	7759	4033	2729	1222	10760	7776	9890	2021	1440	11370	1428	3447	4974	4078	10610	2261	1212	987	4297	1693	1539	1046	4406	1562	3238	1949	1977	460	7161	8865	1406	1162	1580	13980	9730	5656	5581	8366	3163	2080	1700	1813	1443	1833	1709	436	4690	1863	1465	1617	4189	16960	5303	1791	2488	10120	1716	2223	8578	1935	1094	1920	2581	3435	2086	5709
2020-12-03	590	1485	3597	1434	3668	2549	2922	1072	4992	7432	10750	2008	4165	2545	3924	3752	3436	5263	41750	3257	10000	5338	2644	15620	2302	7411	1537	29900	1677	1699	6896	1644	4194	15830	1509	5486	2392	1968	3458	4807	10130	8389	1945	3756	2760	3089	2686	1586	3770	6473	2512	1622	2359	9430	9204	2762	1286	1160	3869	2361	1207	1277	3860	988	19800	9121	1375	1503	6534	2094	3522	2696	1347	8048	1280	12340	3314	2527	10970	8308	684	1665	1564	2238	3761	1710	10180	3851	2252	1277	1700	927	2050	6500	2645	1394	2977	2751	1445	1345	2009	871	2557	7955	3601	2348	1147	2741	1688	4724	2233	4872	1763	3823	2102	4675	1483	3687	5076	1012	4065	747	1837	7114	2551	1953	2409	6547	2584	1625	5845	2078	3916	1957	1000	3794	2726	1971	2136	10800	3490	19800	7955	5817	4275	36980	18250	1035	4474	2757	3277	24390	6224	3493	549	973	31800	3017	7678	1198	964	3696	715	843	1965	5788	4040	1361	1901	3102	15990	4647	7820	934	2940	5402	1594	2306	5011	679	4262	6987	1825	2392	5799	8814	1795	17310	3528	2549	15160	3490	4972	4645	4141	4543	7448	2876	8193	4668	2091	2217	2079	3039	1028	13070	1130	3413	939	11410	2192	1819	3393	1611	499	760	13640	12900	2996	1613	10750	2193	1669	26030	5912	4191	6120	1570	1271	1438	3122	6543	616	1940	2606	2175	1567	1546	1805	3749	1617	3668	5998	4042	2754	5120	1818	2089	7778	4060	2757	1236	10780	7821	10040	2032	1450	11430	1444	3486	5102	4115	10640	2278	1225	996	4324	1706	1547	1062	4485	1578	3263	1989	1991	469	7244	8886	1425	1172	1593	14050	9810	5680	5631	8409	3183	2100	1713	1844	1457	1851	1716	441	4708	1893	1473	1629	4234	17020	5365	1819	2512	10140	1744	2233	8668	1949	1099	1930	2613	3450	2093	5722
2020-12-04	595	1496	3611	1448	3683	2585	2955	1084	5077	7515	10810	2015	4243	2569	3990	3777	3464	5343	41930	3290	10080	5358	2684	15720	2346	7441	1552	30040	1697	1713	6960	1666	4217	15940	1529	5558	2414	1995	3475	4844	10200	8446	1960	3778	2790	3179	2698	1609	3805	6504	2540	1638	2380	9550	9244	2773	1294	1170	3900	2381	1213	1290	3890	992	19920	9242	1388	1511	6622	2116	3560	2732	1360	8098	1292	12420	3330	2596	11070	8394	696	1689	1573	2269	3823	1724	10220	3933	2271	1291	1709	927	2070	6526	2681	1415	2986	2771	1457	1361	2048	883	2576	7986	3617	2381	1165	2798	1700	4779	2254	4903	1773	3834	2116	4747	1517	3710	5099	1020	4083	752	1859	7229	2565	1974	2418	6621	2600	1640	5893	2089	3938	1980	1007	3834	2744	1990	2156	10880	3533	19930	7981	5871	4298	37250	18380	1043	4524	2779	3326	24460	6276	3627	561	981	31910	3026	7947	1212	971	3762	721	850	1987	5827	4062	1374	1917	3130	16050	4686	7932	947	2952	5439	1612	2342	5051	687	4285	7011	1837	2406	5842	8861	1817	17380	3542	2574	15220	3515	5012	4668	4167	4573	7481	2898	8340	4692	2113	2238	2092	3064	1037	13140	1145	3441	957	11470	2217	1851	3409	1627	503	767	13660	12980	3013	1632	10780	2202	1693	26160	5943	4257	6158	1586	1284	1448	3142	6609	619	1960	2644	2187	1590	1559	1816	3779	1643	3679	6045	4064	2813	5167	1825	2112	7794	4089	2787	1251	10790	7867	10180	2044	1460	11480	1456	3525	5226	4153	10650	2296	1240	1004	4350	1719	1555	1077	4592	1596	3293	2029	2000	479	7349	8927	1443	1183	1605	14120	9890	5715	5682	8440	3203	2121	1726	1875	1471	1869	1724	447	4725	1922	1481	1641	4280	17090	5429	1846	2536	10160	1769	2244	8775	1963	1103	1941	2647	3465	2100	5735
2020-12-05	599	1506	3623	1461	3699	2620	2977	1096	5138	7596	10850	2022	4319	2594	4052	3802	3492	5421	42170	3322	10140	5376	2724	15780	2380	7464	1567	30170	1714	1726	7014	1687	4239	16020	1548	5626	2435	2014	3495	4869	10240	8493	1975	3802	2819	3269	2709	1631	3838	6534	2567	1655	2401	9660	9283	2784	1302	1180	3931	2401	1220	1302	3920	996	20040	9362	1400	1518	6674	2137	3597	2758	1372	8147	1303	12480	3346	2665	11160	8479	706	1713	1583	2298	3886	1738	10250	4013	2291	1304	1718	929	2088	6550	2716	1435	2992	2791	1469	1377	2087	895	2594	8014	3632	2415	1182	2854	1712	4819	2275	4936	1782	3843	2129	4782	1549	3732	5099	1027	4100	757	1879	7342	2579	1995	2425	6693	2617	1654	5940	2101	3960	2006	1014	3872	2760	2008	2176	10920	3575	20060	7996	5922	4320	37480	18510	1049	4562	2800	3374	24510	6325	3726	571	989	31950	3035	8195	1226	973	3829	728	856	2008	5865	4083	1387	1932	3153	16110	4723	8015	961	2963	5473	1629	2376	5101	694	4306	7031	1849	2420	5883	8905	1840	17440	3556	2600	15280	3538	5043	4674	4181	4601	7507	2924	8434	4716	2136	2259	2105	3076	1046	13220	1159	3468	975	11530	2242	1882	3423	1642	507	775	13670	13100	3027	1651	10800	2215	1716	26260	5971	4297	6194	1601	1296	1456	3162	6661	622	1978	2679	2198	1613	1572	1826	3809	1669	3707	6090	4085	2871	5195	1831	2134	7824	4116	2815	1265	10810	7912	10310	2055	1470	11570	1465	3564	5317	4189	10660	2313	1253	1013	4375	1731	1562	1092	4660	1612	3314	2068	2010	488	7404	8947	1461	1193	1617	14200	9970	5720	5730	8477	3222	2142	1739	1905	1485	1887	1732	452	4747	1951	1488	1652	4325	17150	5491	1873	2560	10170	1801	2254	8841	1977	1108	1950	2680	3478	2107	5748
2020-12-06	604	1516	3635	1474	3730	2655	3012	1108	5207	7678	10910	2028	4395	2618	4115	3826	3520	5498	42510	3355	10190	5394	2764	15820	2403	7483	1582	30300	1725	1739	7070	1708	4261	16080	1567	5695	2457	2035	3511	4887	10290	8530	1989	3830	2849	3361	2720	1654	3871	6564	2595	1672	2421	9780	9321	2796	1309	1190	3962	2420	1226	1314	3950	1000	20170	9482	1412	1526	6729	2158	3635	2790	1384	8197	1314	12550	3362	2736	11260	8564	717	1736	1592	2327	3949	1753	10250	4093	2310	1317	1728	931	2107	6574	2751	1455	2999	2811	1481	1393	2127	906	2612	8048	3648	2449	1200	2911	1723	4866	2296	4979	1792	3853	2142	4827	1583	3755	5099	1035	4117	763	1900	7456	2592	2016	2427	6765	2633	1668	5983	2112	3981	2025	1021	3911	2778	2026	2196	10950	3618	20180	8008	5974	4341	37680	18630	1051	4590	2821	3422	24560	6373	3832	582	998	32020	3043	8481	1240	982	3896	735	862	2030	5904	4103	1399	1948	3175	16160	4760	8098	975	2975	5508	1647	2411	5130	702	4328	7052	1861	2433	5924	8982	1862	17490	3570	2626	15330	3562	5056	4676	4185	4628	7532	2926	8539	4740	2159	2279	2117	3089	1055	13250	1174	3495	994	11590	2268	1913	3437	1658	512	783	13680	13180	3042	1669	10820	2227	1740	26350	6000	4345	6230	1617	1309	1465	3185	6718	626	1997	2714	2209	1637	1585	1837	3840	1694	3717	6135	4106	2931	5229	1837	2155	7829	4143	2843	1279	10820	7957	10450	2066	1479	11630	1471	3603	5404	4225	10660	2330	1266	1021	4401	1744	1570	1107	4726	1629	3329	2108	2013	497	7472	8973	1479	1204	1630	14270	10050	5741	5778	8523	3242	2162	1752	1935	1498	1905	1739	458	4763	1981	1496	1664	4370	17260	5553	1901	2584	10190	1819	2264	8912	1991	1112	1960	2712	3492	2113	5760
2020-12-07	609	1526	3647	1487	3748	2692	3044	1120	5309	7760	10970	2035	4472	2642	4178	3851	3547	5577	42800	3387	10280	5413	2804	15910	2470	7523	1596	30460	1756	1752	7136	1729	4283	16180	1587	5764	2478	2066	3532	4919	10400	8605	2004	3864	2879	3456	2732	1677	3904	6595	2622	1690	2442	9890	9360	2807	1317	1201	3993	2440	1233	1326	3980	1005	20300	9603	1425	1534	6824	2179	3672	2853	1396	8246	1325	12680	3377	2809	11360	8650	728	1760	1602	2357	4013	1767	10320	4173	2329	1330	1737	935	2126	6598	2787	1475	3005	2831	1493	1409	2168	918	2631	8079	3684	2483	1217	2968	1734	4940	2317	5020	1801	3863	2155	4888	1618	3778	5099	1043	4135	768	1921	7571	2606	2037	2435	6838	2649	1682	6045	2123	4003	2061	1028	3950	2813	2045	2216	11050	3660	20310	8042	6026	4363	37940	18760	1059	4643	2842	3471	24630	6422	3952	592	1006	32130	3052	8802	1254	996	3965	741	868	2052	5943	4124	1412	1963	3211	16220	4797	8242	989	2986	5542	1664	2446	5177	709	4349	7072	1872	2446	5965	9067	1885	17550	3584	2652	15400	3585	5098	4711	4202	4655	7578	2955	8680	4764	2182	2299	2130	3108	1064	13350	1189	3522	1012	11700	2293	1946	3452	1674	516	791	13710	13270	3057	1688	10860	2239	1763	26470	6028	4402	6266	1632	1322	1474	3213	6796	629	2016	2749	2220	1660	1598	1847	3870	1719	3737	6180	4127	2992	5296	1844	2178	7859	4170	2871	1293	10850	8002	10590	2076	1489	11710	1488	3642	5585	4262	10680	2348	1280	1030	4426	1757	1577	1122	4835	1646	3372	2148	2022	507	7578	9010	1497	1215	1642	14370	10120	5788	5827	8572	3261	2183	1765	1965	1512	1922	1747	463	4786	2011	1504	1675	4416	17370	5616	1928	2608	10220	1853	2274	9014	2004	1116	1970	2745	3518	2120	5773
2020-12-08	613	1537	3659	1500	3770	2728	3106	1132	5393	7842	11020	2041	4550	2666	4241	3876	3575	5656	43120	3419	10320	5431	2844	16010	2523	7567	1611	30610	1782	1765	7213	1750	4305	16250	1606	5833	2500	2097	3548	4952	10460	8680	2019	3899	2908	3554	2743	1700	3938	6625	2650	1707	2463	10000	9399	2818	1325	1211	4024	2460	1239	1338	4011	1009	20420	9724	1438	1541	6910	2201	3710	2890	1408	8296	1337	12780	3393	2884	11450	8736	739	1784	1611	2386	4078	1782	10430	4254	2348	1344	1746	944	2145	6621	2823	1495	3012	2851	1505	1424	2209	930	2649	8117	3715	2517	1235	3025	1746	5016	2338	5035	1811	3872	2169	4940	1653	3801	5158	1051	4152	773	1942	7687	2620	2059	2450	6911	2665	1697	6101	2135	4025	2078	1035	3989	2833	2063	2236	11140	3703	20440	8065	6078	4385	38120	18880	1071	4693	2863	3520	24680	6470	4061	603	1014	32290	3060	9086	1268	1010	4035	748	874	2075	5981	4145	1424	1979	3237	16280	4834	8365	1003	2997	5576	1682	2482	5224	716	4370	7093	1884	2460	6007	9153	1908	17610	3598	2678	15460	3608	5137	4764	4228	4683	7623	2991	8794	4788	2206	2320	2143	3134	1073	13420	1204	3550	1031	11760	2319	1979	3466	1690	520	799	13770	13390	3071	1707	10890	2258	1787	26580	6057	4463	6301	1648	1334	1483	3238	6852	632	2035	2785	2232	1684	1611	1858	3901	1745	3763	6225	4149	3054	5356	1850	2200	7897	4197	2900	1307	10920	8047	10730	2087	1498	11760	1510	3681	5701	4298	10740	2365	1293	1039	4452	1770	1584	1137	4924	1663	3438	2189	2030	516	7691	9040	1515	1225	1654	14460	10200	5893	5875	8600	3281	2203	1777	1996	1526	1940	1754	469	4798	2041	1511	1687	4461	17460	5679	1956	2632	10250	1888	2284	9111	2018	1120	1980	2778	3535	2127	5785

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-02 to 2020-12-08

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-01	581	1464	3568	1406	3605	2477	2857	1047	4848	7266	10636	1995	4007	2496	3784	3701	3378	5103	41112	3189	9827	5300	2554	15334	2193	7326	1506	29578	1619	1672	6677	1600	4147	15563	1470	5345	2348	1916	3397	4700	9932	8261	1915	3658	2701	2911	2661	1539	3701	6410	2457	1588	2316	9187	9123	2741	1269	1138	3806	2322	1194	1253	3800	981	19544	8876	1349	1487	6367	2050	3446	2604	1321	7946	1258	12144	3278	2393	10770	8135	660	1617	1542	2177	3636	1681	10053	3681	2213	1250	1680	921	2011	6445	2572	1351	2961	2710	1419	1313	1928	847	2519	7870	3537	2279	1112	2627	1663	4554	2190	4751	1742	3801	2074	4528	1415	3639	5066	995	4026	736	1792	6881	2522	1911	2388	6397	2550	1596	5658	2054	3871	1880	986	3713	2657	1932	2095	10597	3402	19541	7875	5710	4230	36208	17981	999	4378	2712	3179	24243	6110	3251	525	956	31512	2998	7040	1170	937	3564	701	831	1921	5708	4003	1336	1869	3019	15877	4569	7593	906	2916	5325	1558	2234	4892	664	4215	6939	1801	2363	5712	8686	1750	17186	3504	2496	14969	3440	4876	4607	4060	4486	7310	2812	7913	4618	2047	2175	2052	2970	1009	12874	1103	3358	903	11220	2140	1755	3362	1577	490	744	13518	12637	2961	1576	10616	2152	1621	25775	5851	4028	6040	1538	1246	1420	3039	6359	610	1901	2532	2152	1520	1518	1783	3687	1566	3621	5904	3998	2631	5032	1806	2044	7734	4003	2697	1207	10696	7729	9745	2009	1429	11212	1398	3407	4822	4039	10572	2242	1197	978	4270	1680	1531	1031	4271	1544	3204	1908	1954	451	7018	8794	1387	1151	1567	13841	9650	5656	5527	8311	3142	2058	1686	1781	1428	1814	1700	430	4656	1833	1456	1604	4141	16828	5238	1761	2463	10088	1690	2214	8378	1920	1089	1909	2546	3410	2079	5694
2020-12-02	584	1473	3593	1418	3626	2516	2900	1058	4938	7349	10680	2000	4106	2517	3836	3724	3406	5178	41400	3213	9890	5323	2573	15420	2238	7363	1523	29720	1651	1688	6751	1623	4173	15650	1491	5427	2366	1943	3417	4734	9990	8330	1927	3697	2726	2978	2666	1560	3736	6437	2481	1600	2328	9256	9159	2755	1277	1148	3834	2343	1198	1263	3820	986	19650	8947	1362	1493	6454	2072	3480	2645	1335	7995	1266	12230	3295	2457	10860	8213	669	1637	1551	2210	3677	1692	10130	3717	2232	1263	1688	924	2031	6524	2606	1370	2978	2729	1430	1333	1972	852	2537	7901	3562	2312	1128	2686	1677	4622	2211	4779	1751	3825	2083	4607	1449	3655	5107	1002	4051	752	1809	6997	2536	1931	2397	6471	2564	1608	5714	2064	3890	1906	991	3756	2680	1950	2112	10670	3451	19670	7895	5765	4253	36390	18100	1010	4425	2732	3224	24310	6201	3365	534	966	31640	3015	7307	1181	948	3616	709	838	1940	5740	4066	1349	1877	3061	15930	4609	7728	916	2929	5364	1575	2271	4937	674	4243	6989	1812	2381	5756	8758	1769	17260	3532	2513	15030	3468	4919	4661	4079	4509	7345	2848	8048	4639	2062	2197	2063	2990	1018	12950	1122	3384	919	11290	2159	1780	3376	1587	494	749	13570	12730	2983	1593	10650	2168	1643	25880	5879	4083	6079	1553	1256	1429	3061	6426	614	1920	2573	2165	1538	1530	1793	3719	1594	3645	5948	4016	2670	5086	1822	2066	7769	4034	2723	1222	10740	7772	9880	2016	1444	11280	1415	3448	4966	4075	10610	2256	1213	984	4297	1695	1538	1044	4343	1562	3262	1949	1963	461	7129	8814	1406	1159	1581	13940	9730	5745	5581	8345	3161	2080	1699	1807	1442	1833	1707	437	4673	1860	1462	1621	4176	16920	5295	1771	2485	10110	1721	2239	8477	1933	1093	1920	2580	3431	2092	5709
2020-12-03	588	1479	3613	1430	3647	2548	2931	1067	5008	7429	10730	2003	4192	2537	3866	3738	3428	5249	41670	3239	9950	5346	2589	15490	2283	7397	1536	29850	1661	1697	6821	1642	4187	15740	1509	5497	2381	1965	3436	4768	10030	8382	1939	3730	2752	3040	2681	1582	3764	6464	2505	1615	2337	9316	9188	2769	1283	1157	3861	2363	1202	1273	3840	989	19750	9020	1372	1498	6526	2092	3514	2683	1344	8035	1275	12300	3308	2518	10950	8285	675	1656	1558	2237	3728	1703	10180	3752	2249	1272	1696	924	2047	6601	2637	1380	2993	2747	1440	1347	2007	861	2550	7925	3580	2346	1143	2745	1684	4683	2230	4799	1760	3849	2100	4657	1478	3667	5146	1008	4073	760	1822	7100	2549	1952	2401	6536	2572	1618	5776	2073	3915	1928	998	3793	2703	1966	2130	10720	3491	19780	7912	5813	4274	36520	18210	1019	4468	2746	3274	24350	6274	3477	540	971	31760	3034	7571	1190	963	3669	716	843	1959	5764	4119	1361	1883	3092	15980	4645	7840	928	2943	5396	1590	2301	4971	683	4278	7041	1824	2395	5803	8818	1790	17320	3567	2535	15080	3488	4950	4715	4094	4534	7381	2876	8179	4655	2082	2217	2073	3010	1024	13000	1139	3410	936	11350	2180	1802	3390	1595	498	755	13610	12820	2994	1609	10670	2180	1664	25980	5909	4135	6116	1566	1267	1437	3075	6471	617	1937	2604	2179	1552	1544	1800	3749	1613	3664	5991	4030	2705	5124	1836	2085	7792	4069	2745	1235	10780	7811	10000	2022	1453	11310	1429	3486	5088	4108	10650	2273	1226	991	4325	1707	1545	1057	4420	1576	3307	1988	1973	470	7205	8836	1423	1168	1586	14010	9810	5817	5623	8374	3177	2099	1709	1829	1455	1848	1716	441	4684	1888	1465	1631	4207	16990	5351	1784	2504	10130	1745	2260	8565	1942	1097	1930	2608	3445	2108	5723
2020-12-04	592	1486	3634	1442	3668	2579	2963	1076	5084	7502	10770	2007	4280	2560	3896	3762	3453	5320	41940	3265	10010	5368	2605	15570	2327	7425	1549	29980	1680	1705	6885	1662	4204	15820	1529	5568	2394	1990	3450	4804	10070	8433	1950	3754	2777	3102	2694	1605	3792	6491	2527	1631	2350	9370	9219	2781	1290	1166	3892	2381	1206	1284	3862	992	19840	9093	1382	1502	6605	2112	3549	2720	1352	8069	1283	12370	3319	2580	11040	8363	682	1673	1565	2263	3777	1729	10230	3787	2267	1281	1705	924	2064	6677	2669	1394	3009	2765	1450	1362	2043	872	2565	7951	3599	2379	1158	2804	1692	4742	2248	4819	1769	3871	2116	4715	1508	3681	5190	1015	4094	769	1834	7200	2561	1973	2408	6601	2580	1630	5831	2082	3940	1948	1005	3830	2723	1981	2150	10760	3532	19880	7929	5865	4294	36660	18310	1028	4514	2760	3325	24390	6344	3607	547	978	31870	3053	7845	1199	976	3724	723	848	1978	5788	4175	1373	1890	3121	16030	4682	7956	940	2956	5430	1606	2331	5005	690	4311	7090	1834	2411	5850	8878	1811	17380	3598	2557	15130	3507	4989	4759	4112	4558	7409	2904	8320	4670	2102	2237	2082	3034	1030	13060	1156	3435	954	11410	2200	1822	3405	1603	501	761	13640	12910	3005	1624	10690	2191	1685	26100	5938	4192	6152	1580	1278	1444	3087	6510	620	1955	2636	2193	1569	1559	1807	3775	1635	3681	6034	4046	2741	5168	1849	2105	7815	4104	2769	1247	10810	7850	10120	2031	1465	11350	1443	3522	5201	4141	10670	2289	1240	999	4352	1720	1553	1071	4512	1591	3356	2031	1980	480	7304	8867	1439	1179	1596	14070	9890	5905	5665	8400	3192	2118	1720	1855	1467	1863	1724	446	4695	1917	1469	1642	4237	17060	5407	1794	2525	10150	1766	2291	8666	1951	1101	1939	2636	3458	2124	5738
2020-12-05	595	1493	3655	1453	3683	2611	2987	1085	5147	7563	10810	2010	4362	2579	3925	3774	3476	5385	42220	3290	10050	5391	2619	15630	2369	7449	1562	30100	1695	1713	6945	1681	4219	15880	1546	5639	2406	2010	3466	4834	10110	8479	1961	3775	2802	3165	2702	1622	3820	6517	2549	1645	2358	9420	9248	2794	1296	1175	3917	2398	1210	1294	3883	994	19920	9167	1391	1508	6675	2129	3583	2754	1360	8106	1292	12420	3330	2641	11140	8428	688	1690	1572	2289	3820	1738	10270	3823	2284	1291	1713	925	2080	6752	2699	1405	3024	2783	1460	1375	2078	878	2576	7976	3616	2413	1174	2864	1698	4793	2266	4840	1777	3894	2132	4766	1537	3691	5221	1021	4115	777	1845	7304	2573	1994	2414	6663	2589	1640	5884	2090	3965	1971	1011	3867	2741	1997	2167	10800	3573	19980	7943	5906	4307	36780	18410	1037	4556	2773	3376	24430	6413	3701	552	985	31950	3072	8068	1208	988	3777	729	853	1996	5811	4227	1385	1896	3143	16070	4718	8039	951	2971	5461	1621	2361	5039	699	4344	7133	1845	2428	5897	8936	1833	17430	3630	2578	15170	3525	5016	4793	4125	4577	7434	2932	8434	4685	2122	2253	2091	3045	1036	13120	1173	3461	969	11470	2220	1841	3418	1611	504	766	13670	12950	3012	1639	10710	2203	1706	26200	5967	4238	6186	1594	1288	1450	3101	6545	623	1972	2663	2207	1584	1573	1813	3803	1655	3701	6077	4059	2774	5193	1862	2124	7840	4138	2790	1259	10840	7886	10230	2039	1475	11400	1454	3558	5304	4173	10700	2304	1254	1007	4378	1732	1560	1084	4589	1605	3393	2070	1986	489	7360	8884	1455	1187	1604	14130	9960	5969	5706	8427	3206	2137	1730	1879	1478	1879	1732	450	4709	1945	1472	1650	4266	17120	5463	1805	2544	10160	1792	2303	8729	1959	1104	1946	2664	3472	2140	5752
2020-12-06	598	1500	3675	1464	3699	2642	3018	1094	5222	7639	10860	2013	4441	2599	3955	3790	3499	5455	42510	3316	10080	5413	2634	15670	2404	7469	1575	30220	1705	1721	7012	1701	4235	15930	1562	5710	2419	2033	3479	4861	10160	8523	1973	3803	2828	3228	2709	1641	3848	6543	2575	1660	2367	9469	9276	2807	1303	1184	3938	2418	1213	1305	3903	997	20010	9241	1401	1512	6747	2147	3617	2790	1368	8144	1300	12490	3340	2708	11230	8487	695	1709	1579	2316	3864	1747	10310	3858	2301	1302	1720	928	2096	6823	2730	1415	3040	2801	1469	1386	2114	888	2590	8002	3633	2447	1189	2924	1705	4852	2284	4861	1786	3915	2147	4814	1567	3704	5252	1027	4137	786	1858	7403	2586	2015	2418	6729	2597	1649	5939	2099	3990	1990	1018	3904	2761	2012	2184	10850	3614	20070	7958	5961	4323	36880	18510	1044	4595	2786	3428	24470	6480	3791	558	990	32080	3091	8344	1217	1003	3827	737	858	2015	5834	4280	1396	1902	3163	16120	4754	8132	963	2984	5488	1636	2391	5072	707	4374	7172	1856	2441	5944	9000	1854	17490	3665	2599	15220	3545	5036	4829	4136	4608	7464	2958	8552	4700	2142	2267	2100	3055	1042	13160	1191	3487	988	11520	2240	1867	3431	1619	509	771	13700	13010	3018	1654	10730	2214	1727	26300	5996	4289	6218	1607	1299	1458	3114	6581	626	1989	2705	2221	1594	1590	1821	3829	1676	3717	6120	4073	2801	5229	1875	2144	7860	4174	2811	1272	10880	7925	10330	2046	1483	11440	1470	3592	5404	4206	10720	2319	1267	1013	4401	1744	1568	1098	4697	1620	3431	2110	1995	498	7409	8906	1471	1196	1611	14200	10040	6056	5748	8455	3221	2156	1741	1904	1489	1894	1738	454	4719	1974	1475	1656	4293	17180	5519	1815	2564	10180	1808	2313	8797	1968	1108	1953	2692	3486	2157	5766
2020-12-07	602	1507	3697	1485	3732	2675	3062	1104	5324	7740	10920	2017	4528	2621	3985	3814	3525	5529	42840	3343	10140	5436	2655	15760	2463	7515	1589	30370	1742	1729	7095	1721	4251	16040	1578	5783	2442	2063	3502	4896	10230	8582	1984	3847	2854	3293	2735	1671	3877	6572	2599	1676	2381	9536	9308	2821	1309	1192	3973	2441	1217	1315	3928	1000	20100	9316	1412	1518	6830	2167	3652	2836	1377	8184	1310	12580	3351	2779	11330	8607	701	1742	1588	2342	3920	1760	10360	3894	2319	1321	1728	931	2113	6914	2764	1431	3066	2820	1480	1404	2151	905	2610	8028	3664	2482	1205	2986	1712	4931	2302	4882	1795	3939	2173	4865	1600	3722	5299	1033	4159	794	1870	7520	2600	2037	2425	6795	2608	1665	6011	2108	4015	2021	1025	3942	2790	2028	2206	10900	3656	20190	7982	6025	4344	37040	18650	1054	4648	2801	3481	24530	6548	3923	565	998	32220	3111	8692	1226	1024	3883	748	863	2034	5858	4339	1408	1909	3194	16170	4792	8267	975	2999	5524	1651	2422	5108	719	4411	7229	1868	2457	5993	9065	1876	17550	3701	2629	15290	3566	5078	4887	4158	4637	7509	2987	8690	4716	2162	2288	2110	3081	1048	13260	1209	3513	1011	11590	2261	1889	3449	1627	512	777	13740	13110	3032	1672	10760	2226	1749	26410	6027	4352	6259	1621	1312	1470	3128	6633	629	2006	2762	2235	1621	1607	1829	3861	1697	3743	6165	4089	2836	5300	1888	2164	7885	4210	2837	1284	10940	7963	10460	2063	1496	11480	1496	3629	5551	4240	10770	2336	1283	1021	4431	1757	1575	1112	4810	1635	3509	2157	2002	507	7530	8942	1491	1205	1619	14280	10120	6163	5791	8495	3238	2176	1752	1948	1505	1910	1745	459	4737	2003	1480	1672	4327	17280	5577	1827	2584	10210	1837	2338	8911	1974	1112	1963	2721	3504	2175	5781
2020-12-08	606	1514	3718	1499	3761	2707	3104	1113	5400	7819	10980	2020	4621	2645	4015	3829	3554	5600	43180	3370	10180	5459	2676	15860	2525	7556	1602	30510	1771	1737	7185	1742	4263	16120	1598	5856	2456	2090	3516	4935	10290	8639	1996	3880	2880	3359	2755	1694	3905	6600	2622	1693	2390	9593	9340	2837	1316	1201	4004	2461	1221	1326	3948	1003	20200	9393	1422	1526	6914	2187	3688	2875	1383	8228	1319	12670	3360	2849	11430	8685	708	1764	1596	2369	3977	1772	10430	3930	2337	1337	1736	934	2130	6996	2796	1442	3084	2838	1490	1417	2189	919	2628	8055	3691	2517	1221	3048	1719	5006	2320	4901	1804	3962	2191	4913	1633	3735	5357	1040	4180	803	1883	7619	2613	2059	2434	6864	2616	1678	6084	2117	4041	2044	1032	3980	2815	2044	2224	10950	3698	20300	8006	6074	4366	37180	18770	1065	4694	2814	3534	24570	6617	4037	571	1006	32350	3131	9017	1236	1043	3940	756	869	2054	5880	4397	1421	1915	3217	16220	4829	8399	987	3014	5560	1667	2453	5144	726	4452	7279	1878	2472	6042	9131	1897	17610	3734	2652	15350	3583	5111	4947	4174	4663	7550	3017	8822	4731	2183	2311	2120	3110	1055	13320	1228	3540	1025	11660	2281	1910	3465	1634	515	783	13800	13210	3041	1688	10800	2239	1771	26520	6057	4417	6297	1635	1322	1478	3143	6669	632	2024	2796	2250	1636	1625	1835	3896	1720	3767	6209	4105	2868	5350	1902	2184	7909	4246	2861	1297	11000	8002	10580	2076	1507	11520	1520	3667	5668	4274	10820	2353	1300	1029	4461	1770	1583	1126	4903	1650	3571	2201	2008	517	7616	8969	1508	1213	1626	14350	10200	6277	5834	8520	3252	2195	1762	1990	1519	1926	1752	463	4747	2033	1484	1684	4358	17350	5634	1838	2603	10230	1862	2364	9016	1987	1115	1970	2749	3521	2192	5796

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-01