COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-02

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-02

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)11-0310-2110-2711-0810-21 --10-2510-3111-1911-0810-1310-04 --11-0210-2610-1811-0511-0411-0311-0210-1810-1110-2410-1211-1610-3110-2710-2411-1710-1511-08 --10-1210-2710-27 --11-02 --10-0410-0110-2510-2911-0210-0510-24 --10-25 --10-2710-1311-0611-0110-2910-2710-2810-2210-2810-2410-1110-0710-2710-3111-0210-3010-0311-0311-0210-18 --11-0611-0411-1211-0110-2611-0210-1310-29 --11-0211-0109-3011-0110-2511-0311-0310-2710-2711-0211-0311-0910-2010-28 --11-0911-0911-0310-1109-2710-28 -- --11-1010-1110-2710-1111-1111-0311-1910-30 --10-2709-2710-2510-1711-03 -- --10-26 --10-2711-03 --11-0511-0511-02 --10-2711-0411-0111-0211-0710-2910-11 --04-2110-2510-1311-0310-2510-2810-1210-2709-2910-2410-0709-2711-0211-08 --11-01 --09-29 -- -- --10-2509-2210-25 --11-0111-15 --11-0810-2711-0411-0311-0310-2411-0209-2709-2611-01 --11-0310-1410-2511-0310-2711-0411-1311-0111-0311-0311-0110-2510-3111-1009-3011-0111-0210-2511-0310-1111-1111-0211-0310-13 --11-2011-0310-2611-0110-1310-1311-0110-23 --10-1211-1310-2211-02 --10-0910-1110-2811-0210-1910-2911-0111-0409-3011-0311-0509-2910-3111-0210-3110-2711-0510-2810-2510-3111-0111-0210-2511-0911-0210-2510-3010-1311-0310-2511-0311-02 --10-1211-0111-0310-0910-2510-3111-0310-1810-1211-0110-2310-2911-0111-01 -- --11-0110-1810-2911-0110-2410-2810-0511-0211-0411-1911-03 -- --10-25 --11-0510-13 --10-3111-0210-2510-30 --11-0110-2010-1710-2610-2211-0811-0310-2510-2910-2510-0511-0110-2610-1310-2310-2411-0811-0210-2710-04 --11-0411-0210-3010-2210-2710-2710-1110-3110-06
Peak daily increment 8 28 84 45 62 42 19 90 96 191 28 34 79 72 37 90 605 61 163 99 56 234 50 136 21 447 26 50 98 71 321 25 37 57 70 161 140 46 47 52 41 49 132 32 26 35 129 143 54 24 14 62 32 23 19 64 20 291 137 20 30 27 51 47 27 167 26 248 56 246 115 16 36 28 36 102 31 222 75 29 18 32 16 100 40 29 55 76 26 15 41 130 71 37 23 62 28 33 71 34 55 42 66 15 73 40 132 46 43 95 51 22 76 28 59 16 52 35 27 29 280 47 361 152 73 85 542 249 13 60 529 14 612 62 26 19 15 10 31 89 69 25 33 55 392 83 20 51 160 26 48 106 21 86 115 34 56 89 129 27 615 66 39 265 48 64 61 81 82 101 135 92 43 37 41 42 17 199 63 20 199 43 66 18 7 16 237 230 83 27 185 35 30 438 109 73 92 22 18 25 66 139 12 26 43 81 38 32 27 70 34 76 85 74 61 33 30 118 83 57 18 183 125 187 31 31 155 25 65 177 46 18 15 89 21 18 19 112 23 48 114 138 17 25 251 159 75 135 58 26 22 41 18 29 27 8 91 34 22 24 63 322 83 31 38 137 32 135 37 15 31 46 65 40 130
Days since peak 29 42 36 24 42 38 32 13 24 50 59 30 37 45 27 28 29 30 45 52 39 51 16 32 36 39 15 48 24 51 36 36 30 59 62 38 34 30 58 39 38 36 50 26 31 34 36 35 41 35 39 52 56 36 32 30 33 60 29 30 45 26 28 20 31 37 30 50 34 30 31 63 31 38 29 29 36 36 30 29 23 43 35 23 23 29 52 66 35 22 52 36 52 21 29 13 33 36 66 38 46 29 37 36 29 27 27 30 36 28 31 30 25 34 52 225 38 50 29 38 35 51 36 64 39 56 66 30 24 31 64 38 71 38 31 17 24 36 28 29 29 39 30 66 67 31 29 49 38 29 36 28 19 31 29 29 31 38 32 22 63 31 30 38 29 52 21 30 29 50 12 29 37 31 50 50 31 40 51 19 41 30 54 52 35 30 44 34 31 28 63 29 27 64 32 30 32 36 27 35 38 32 31 30 38 23 30 38 33 50 29 38 29 30 51 31 29 54 38 32 29 45 51 31 40 34 31 31 31 45 34 31 39 35 58 30 28 13 29 38 27 50 32 30 38 33 31 43 46 37 41 24 29 38 34 38 58 31 37 50 40 39 24 30 36 59 28 30 33 41 36 36 52 32 57
Last total 587 1481 3611 1417 3641 2520 2893 1056 4971 7408 10699 1999 4151 2521 3828 3722 3419 5216 41454 3214 9897 5332 2573 15401 2256 7363 1538 29747 1654 1685 6749 1636 4181 15664 1496 5437 2365 1961 3416 4738 10021 8321 1934 3698 2728 2990 2676 1577 3751 6451 2476 1596 2336 9244 9180 2759 1277 1146 3829 2350 1195 1265 3822 987 19659 8955 1358 1499 6467 2081 3481 2638 1331 8019 1266 12246 3295 2446 10876 8235 675 1646 1552 2213 3676 1686 10108 3721 2237 1263 1690 925 2044 6588 2630 1362 2985 2723 1430 1330 1979 856 2525 7895 3550 2309 1121 2681 1685 4648 2207 4769 1748 3825 2097 4610 1446 3669 5152 1004 4059 769 1830 7017 2539 1938 2405 6485 2568 1611 5749 2067 3902 1902 989 3749 2682 1949 2126 10684 3482 19662 7890 5770 4249 36400 18081 1012 4442 2740 3261 24310 6191 3354 539 958 31667 3021 7268 1185 951 3629 712 835 1953 5750 4078 1345 1882 3062 15937 4604 7737 916 2934 5351 1582 2289 4937 690 4253 6988 1821 2379 5783 8780 1809 17272 3540 2524 15031 3464 4919 4672 4081 4548 7360 2856 8044 4641 2057 2197 2064 3003 1015 12933 1129 3380 938 11278 2156 1802 3373 1586 492 752 13582 12760 2998 1591 10649 2163 1643 25912 5877 4078 6107 1557 1260 1437 3069 6406 614 1915 2574 2167 1554 1533 1796 3712 1598 3643 5938 4020 2677 5084 1830 2075 7770 4040 2723 1225 10738 7769 9864 2018 1452 11292 1409 3476 4968 4074 10611 2268 1216 983 4294 1687 1546 1044 4362 1570 3275 1958 1964 460 7123 8820 1423 1167 1583 13931 9722 5792 5597 8351 3160 2077 1703 1805 1444 1830 1716 436 4695 1856 1466 1615 4170 16917 5289 1768 2490 10110 1731 2256 8457 1934 1091 1923 2583 3422 2090 5722
Last daily increment 5 18 40 10 33 41 34 10 119 137 59 5 132 25 46 17 36 112 325 25 68 31 19 64 61 35 32 162 34 13 73 34 33 91 21 86 16 44 19 37 74 56 18 37 28 75 14 38 50 39 17 6 20 53 42 17 8 8 21 29 1 11 20 7 109 75 9 12 97 27 34 34 10 65 7 97 15 50 102 94 15 24 10 35 34 5 49 40 21 15 10 4 31 141 56 10 23 14 11 17 48 6 6 22 13 30 9 50 23 89 17 16 6 22 23 78 28 29 80 7 33 29 37 125 13 26 15 86 18 15 90 10 28 22 3 35 23 17 31 78 80 112 20 54 18 176 97 9 63 26 77 58 71 103 13 3 152 23 217 15 14 61 11 2 31 43 67 8 13 36 56 35 135 7 17 25 23 54 45 25 36 49 20 15 67 92 59 68 33 28 59 23 42 59 18 62 55 41 129 23 9 25 13 32 6 52 26 23 35 61 17 45 10 10 3 7 59 118 36 15 37 9 19 111 25 49 64 15 14 13 26 39 3 13 41 13 33 14 14 24 32 21 32 23 44 49 22 29 30 33 26 17 42 39 114 7 21 81 9 69 145 34 33 24 18 4 25 6 14 13 87 25 68 49 6 9 103 25 33 16 16 84 69 132 65 33 17 18 16 24 16 15 13 6 32 22 9 8 30 72 49 7 25 20 40 41 79 13 2 13 35 12 11 17
Last week 22 61 161 87 140 221 233 66 556 556 332 38 600 147 263 148 169 511 1778 155 368 162 100 433 278 226 129 936 135 76 402 152 159 539 127 494 94 184 109 198 373 388 68 193 161 378 62 140 213 199 156 62 97 345 302 113 45 73 170 145 23 57 127 41 650 411 74 40 494 136 193 242 78 287 51 560 116 319 588 473 55 131 54 201 238 85 442 213 103 64 60 23 129 564 253 103 125 112 73 98 241 54 81 189 136 177 88 325 105 392 128 126 51 143 82 411 176 129 391 48 186 98 118 718 98 131 70 437 104 77 347 72 136 149 27 250 133 106 122 458 311 766 122 329 132 1012 718 45 299 131 319 370 497 587 54 42 781 122 1425 79 69 327 45 39 129 207 402 86 58 186 340 256 713 60 86 248 110 248 254 59 214 284 73 100 309 452 155 423 197 114 335 155 231 339 124 240 237 196 757 148 94 131 68 134 45 420 113 148 127 428 109 196 108 54 28 34 294 625 153 80 173 76 135 712 174 318 276 97 65 68 114 319 30 129 259 81 123 89 65 147 154 153 269 135 240 303 110 135 198 205 176 101 285 260 778 56 87 371 100 264 753 215 247 103 105 43 171 85 49 73 527 110 317 268 45 59 570 192 148 73 78 535 502 626 330 213 117 137 75 155 85 114 67 41 121 150 40 79 193 537 319 61 141 140 188 179 539 68 23 70 227 107 86 109
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 68 29 75 75 68 27
Low between peaks 27 2 1 1 6 14 7 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-03 to 2020-12-09

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-02 587 1481 3611 1417 3641 2520 2893 1056 4971 7408 10699 1999 4151 2521 3828 3722 3419 5216 41454 3214 9897 5332 2573 15401 2256 7363 1538 29747 1654 1685 6749 1636 4181 15664 1496 5437 2365 1961 3416 4738 10021 8321 1934 3698 2728 2990 2676 1577 3751 6451 2476 1596 2336 9244 9180 2759 1277 1146 3829 2350 1195 1265 3822 987 19659 8955 1358 1499 6467 2081 3481 2638 1331 8019 1266 12246 3295 2446 10876 8235 675 1646 1552 2213 3676 1686 10108 3721 2237 1263 1690 925 2044 6588 2630 1362 2985 2723 1430 1330 1979 856 2525 7895 3550 2309 1121 2681 1685 4648 2207 4769 1748 3825 2097 4610 1446 3669 5152 1004 4059 769 1830 7017 2539 1938 2405 6485 2568 1611 5749 2067 3902 1902 989 3749 2682 1949 2126 10684 3482 19662 7890 5770 4249 36400 18081 1012 4442 2740 3261 24310 6191 3354 539 958 31667 3021 7268 1185 951 3629 712 835 1953 5750 4078 1345 1882 3062 15937 4604 7737 916 2934 5351 1582 2289 4937 690 4253 6988 1821 2379 5783 8780 1809 17272 3540 2524 15031 3464 4919 4672 4081 4548 7360 2856 8044 4641 2057 2197 2064 3003 1015 12933 1129 3380 938 11278 2156 1802 3373 1586 492 752 13582 12760 2998 1591 10649 2163 1643 25912 5877 4078 6107 1557 1260 1437 3069 6406 614 1915 2574 2167 1554 1533 1796 3712 1598 3643 5938 4020 2677 5084 1830 2075 7770 4040 2723 1225 10738 7769 9864 2018 1452 11292 1409 3476 4968 4074 10611 2268 1216 983 4294 1687 1546 1044 4362 1570 3275 1958 1964 460 7123 8820 1423 1167 1583 13931 9722 5792 5597 8351 3160 2077 1703 1805 1444 1830 1716 436 4695 1856 1466 1615 4170 16917 5289 1768 2490 10110 1731 2256 8457 1934 1091 1923 2583 3422 2090 5722
2020-12-03 592 1493 3647 1440 3696 2554 2926 1067 5014 7497 10770 2006 4258 2546 3871 3748 3449 5301 41840 3232 10000 5359 2580 15460 2303 7418 1555 29980 1678 1693 6892 1660 4207 15820 1516 5526 2372 2058 3455 4773 10020 8432 1949 3758 2757 3067 2689 1601 3788 6486 2502 1612 2354 9266 9223 2777 1299 1156 3859 2370 1201 1277 3832 990 19750 9040 1371 1510 6572 2104 3518 2695 1342 8138 1277 12360 3334 2500 10980 8321 684 1671 1562 2244 3734 1699 10200 3735 2257 1277 1699 932 2084 6683 2667 1378 3007 2743 1456 1374 2019 867 2542 7944 3599 2343 1137 2739 1698 4830 2228 4777 1755 3855 2111 4637 1477 3691 5279 1012 4092 784 1850 7135 2560 1960 2423 6561 2584 1626 5858 2077 3957 1922 996 3788 2706 1968 2147 10770 3529 19780 7945 5823 4272 36790 18240 1022 4482 2774 3382 24400 6260 3477 543 965 31980 3031 7648 1190 967 3680 722 841 1976 5779 4140 1358 1886 3110 16000 4644 7835 929 2944 5370 1600 2326 5004 701 4299 7044 1837 2388 5821 8858 1834 17410 3610 2550 15140 3491 4977 4741 4128 4596 7435 2896 8187 4664 2078 2218 2079 3045 1024 13010 1144 3407 949 11370 2180 1810 3388 1589 496 760 13760 12870 3022 1609 10750 2198 1666 26100 5891 4184 6141 1573 1273 1448 3122 6503 619 1933 2612 2179 1578 1547 1807 3742 1625 3702 5981 4042 2798 5126 1850 2098 7805 4083 2740 1240 10820 7877 10000 2030 1466 11380 1427 3603 5514 4112 10700 2305 1231 991 4366 1700 1555 1059 4455 1588 3401 2028 1996 477 7253 8894 1438 1178 1596 14150 9800 5826 5664 8375 3185 2098 1716 1835 1459 1848 1732 442 4717 1885 1467 1627 4206 17130 5350 1773 2506 10150 1749 2282 8557 1941 1103 1939 2617 3453 2099 5738
2020-12-04 596 1505 3683 1462 3716 2588 2958 1079 5104 7583 10830 2013 4362 2570 3910 3773 3477 5381 42030 3249 10060 5379 2588 15500 2347 7443 1571 30150 1700 1701 6956 1682 4231 15920 1535 5613 2380 2118 3469 4808 10030 8504 1962 3781 2787 3141 2701 1625 3823 6520 2529 1628 2371 9289 9264 2795 1318 1166 3889 2390 1207 1289 3840 992 19840 9126 1383 1520 6674 2125 3555 2729 1353 8179 1287 12440 3358 2555 11080 8405 692 1694 1572 2274 3792 1713 10290 3751 2276 1290 1707 932 2121 6773 2703 1394 3020 2762 1480 1398 2058 878 2559 7964 3614 2377 1154 2796 1712 4885 2249 4787 1761 3884 2124 4692 1507 3712 5376 1021 4124 798 1865 7250 2580 1981 2434 6633 2600 1640 5908 2087 4010 1942 1003 3826 2730 1986 2168 10840 3574 19900 7969 5875 4294 36960 18330 1032 4532 2785 3499 24460 6327 3603 546 973 32140 3040 7928 1195 983 3730 732 847 1998 5807 4201 1370 1889 3138 16070 4682 7953 943 2945 5382 1618 2362 5040 711 4342 7094 1853 2397 5859 8914 1857 17530 3678 2576 15170 3517 5015 4793 4145 4640 7465 2935 8337 4686 2099 2238 2093 3070 1032 13050 1158 3434 970 11420 2205 1818 3403 1593 500 767 13820 12950 3043 1627 10780 2209 1689 26230 5903 4247 6166 1588 1285 1459 3136 6548 623 1952 2647 2191 1601 1559 1818 3772 1650 3726 6021 4064 2873 5172 1869 2121 7832 4106 2757 1254 10850 7928 10130 2042 1478 11420 1444 3672 5688 4149 10730 2321 1244 999 4391 1713 1563 1073 4546 1605 3472 2094 2006 493 7356 8929 1452 1189 1608 14250 9870 5925 5727 8388 3210 2119 1729 1865 1473 1866 1746 447 4731 1914 1469 1639 4242 17220 5410 1779 2522 10170 1774 2307 8658 1948 1114 1955 2650 3468 2106 5753
2020-12-05 601 1518 3717 1484 3729 2622 2978 1090 5168 7669 10900 2020 4469 2594 3951 3798 3506 5437 42190 3266 10120 5395 2595 15510 2383 7470 1587 30280 1717 1710 7002 1704 4255 15980 1555 5700 2388 2168 3482 4842 10040 8567 1976 3802 2815 3214 2713 1649 3857 6554 2555 1644 2389 9314 9306 2813 1338 1176 3919 2410 1213 1300 3848 995 19940 9209 1395 1531 6778 2147 3591 2754 1364 8217 1298 12510 3374 2610 11170 8490 701 1718 1582 2304 3850 1726 10370 3767 2295 1304 1715 937 2156 6863 2740 1410 3033 2782 1503 1414 2098 890 2575 7977 3626 2410 1170 2853 1725 4920 2270 4795 1768 3913 2137 4715 1538 3733 5459 1029 4156 812 1878 7365 2600 2002 2441 6707 2616 1655 5953 2096 4063 1961 1009 3864 2754 2004 2189 10920 3619 20020 7986 5927 4316 37090 18400 1042 4570 2790 3618 24500 6395 3687 549 981 32260 3050 8136 1200 999 3780 741 852 2020 5836 4262 1382 1892 3161 16130 4719 8038 956 2954 5388 1636 2398 5059 722 4386 7146 1868 2405 5887 8946 1882 17650 3744 2600 15210 3542 5043 4836 4153 4684 7492 2973 8431 4708 2119 2258 2107 3081 1041 13070 1172 3460 985 11470 2229 1829 3417 1597 504 775 13880 12990 3065 1645 10800 2216 1712 26320 5916 4283 6191 1603 1297 1469 3153 6584 628 1970 2684 2202 1624 1572 1828 3801 1677 3748 6062 4086 2944 5199 1888 2143 7857 4119 2774 1268 10890 7962 10270 2053 1491 11440 1461 3745 5803 4186 10760 2331 1258 1007 4404 1726 1571 1088 4637 1623 3518 2160 2015 508 7405 8952 1466 1199 1621 14360 9940 5997 5790 8400 3233 2139 1742 1894 1487 1884 1760 453 4751 1942 1472 1651 4277 17290 5469 1784 2538 10180 1803 2333 8757 1956 1123 1971 2683 3488 2114 5769
2020-12-06 606 1530 3752 1506 3760 2656 3012 1101 5236 7753 10960 2027 4575 2618 3990 3823 3534 5484 42480 3283 10160 5423 2603 15510 2406 7490 1603 30410 1727 1718 7056 1725 4279 16060 1574 5787 2395 2205 3493 4876 10040 8620 1990 3825 2844 3285 2724 1672 3891 6588 2582 1660 2406 9337 9346 2830 1357 1186 3949 2430 1219 1312 3856 998 20030 9294 1408 1541 6880 2168 3628 2785 1375 8256 1308 12580 3388 2665 11270 8573 709 1742 1591 2333 3909 1739 10460 3782 2314 1317 1723 940 2190 6951 2776 1426 3063 2801 1526 1431 2138 901 2592 7999 3639 2444 1187 2909 1738 4950 2290 4804 1774 3942 2149 4757 1569 3754 5519 1037 4188 825 1882 7479 2619 2023 2444 6778 2631 1669 5993 2106 4115 1980 1016 3901 2778 2022 2209 11000 3662 20140 7995 5977 4338 37190 18500 1052 4596 2803 3738 24540 6462 3773 551 988 32400 3059 8385 1205 1015 3830 750 858 2042 5863 4322 1395 1895 3186 16190 4755 8121 969 2966 5404 1654 2434 5086 732 4428 7196 1883 2413 5943 9020 1906 17760 3810 2625 15240 3567 5059 4877 4154 4726 7518 3010 8535 4729 2141 2278 2122 3092 1049 13090 1186 3486 998 11520 2254 1838 3431 1601 508 783 13940 13050 3085 1663 10830 2230 1735 26430 5927 4329 6235 1618 1310 1480 3171 6628 632 1988 2719 2213 1648 1585 1839 3831 1702 3771 6102 4108 3008 5233 1907 2165 7873 4147 2790 1282 10920 7996 10400 2064 1502 11480 1479 3830 5952 4222 10780 2351 1272 1015 4417 1738 1579 1103 4728 1640 3559 2226 2019 523 7467 8975 1480 1210 1633 14450 10010 6101 5851 8421 3257 2159 1754 1924 1501 1901 1773 459 4764 1971 1474 1662 4312 17410 5529 1789 2554 10210 1819 2358 8856 1963 1133 1986 2715 3503 2122 5784
2020-12-07 610 1542 3787 1528 3785 2690 3046 1112 5339 7837 11030 2034 4683 2641 4028 3847 3562 5584 42820 3300 10240 5450 2610 15550 2472 7556 1618 30630 1758 1726 7133 1747 4302 16160 1593 5875 2403 2270 3521 4911 10110 8708 2004 3865 2873 3356 2736 1695 3924 6621 2609 1676 2423 9360 9386 2848 1376 1196 3979 2450 1225 1324 3863 1000 20120 9378 1420 1550 6985 2190 3664 2849 1386 8340 1319 12700 3411 2722 11360 8656 717 1766 1601 2362 3968 1753 10550 3797 2333 1330 1731 947 2223 7039 2812 1442 3097 2821 1549 1453 2179 912 2610 8046 3681 2477 1204 2966 1751 5023 2310 4813 1781 3971 2162 4781 1600 3775 5624 1045 4221 838 1899 7593 2639 2044 2462 6849 2646 1683 6064 2116 4167 2000 1022 3939 2802 2039 2229 11080 3706 20260 8023 6028 4360 37340 18640 1062 4651 2824 3863 24620 6530 3887 554 996 32580 3068 8702 1210 1031 3881 760 864 2064 5891 4382 1407 1897 3218 16260 4792 8260 982 2995 5469 1671 2469 5134 742 4471 7245 1899 2420 5996 9115 1930 17880 3876 2649 15310 3592 5108 4949 4178 4769 7571 3048 8673 4751 2162 2298 2136 3117 1057 13160 1200 3512 1018 11620 2279 1848 3445 1604 512 791 14020 13140 3106 1681 10870 2244 1758 26560 5938 4388 6282 1634 1322 1490 3191 6685 637 2006 2755 2224 1672 1597 1849 3861 1727 3806 6142 4129 3072 5300 1926 2187 7909 4211 2807 1296 10990 8065 10530 2075 1514 11530 1496 3882 6156 4258 10850 2371 1285 1023 4459 1751 1587 1117 4820 1657 3661 2295 2031 537 7583 9023 1493 1220 1645 14580 10080 6225 5913 8462 3280 2180 1767 1953 1515 1919 1787 464 4784 2000 1477 1674 4347 17530 5589 1794 2570 10250 1854 2384 8956 1970 1143 2002 2748 3529 2129 5799
2020-12-08 615 1554 3822 1550 3806 2724 3108 1124 5427 7921 11090 2041 4794 2665 4067 3872 3590 5674 43110 3316 10290 5474 2617 15600 2532 7589 1634 30800 1785 1734 7202 1769 4326 16220 1613 5964 2411 2332 3539 4945 10140 8789 2018 3897 2902 3427 2748 1719 3958 6655 2636 1692 2441 9384 9427 2865 1395 1205 4008 2470 1232 1336 3871 1003 20210 9463 1432 1560 7091 2211 3701 2883 1397 8407 1330 12820 3437 2779 11460 8740 725 1789 1611 2392 4028 1766 10630 3813 2352 1343 1739 955 2255 7128 2848 1458 3117 2840 1572 1472 2220 923 2627 8068 3706 2511 1220 3023 1764 5101 2331 4822 1787 4000 2174 4816 1632 3796 5742 1053 4253 852 1922 7709 2658 2066 2474 6921 2661 1697 6115 2126 4219 2019 1029 3976 2826 2057 2250 11160 3750 20370 8046 6079 4382 37510 18760 1072 4701 2841 3992 24670 6599 3992 557 1003 32750 3077 8980 1215 1047 3933 769 870 2086 5918 4443 1420 1900 3243 16320 4828 8390 996 3004 5498 1689 2505 5177 752 4514 7295 1914 2428 6034 9198 1954 17990 3942 2674 15380 3617 5143 5005 4186 4811 7614 3087 8792 4772 2184 2318 2150 3138 1066 13200 1215 3539 1042 11680 2304 1858 3459 1608 516 799 14100 13250 3127 1699 10900 2261 1782 26660 5948 4447 6324 1649 1334 1500 3212 6742 641 2024 2790 2235 1695 1610 1860 3891 1752 3828 6182 4151 3154 5361 1945 2209 7945 4243 2823 1310 11060 8112 10660 2087 1526 11570 1514 3949 6323 4294 10900 2383 1299 1031 4482 1763 1595 1132 4912 1674 3740 2366 2036 552 7688 9052 1506 1231 1657 14690 10160 6354 5974 8481 3303 2200 1779 1983 1529 1936 1800 469 4800 2029 1479 1685 4382 17640 5650 1799 2586 10270 1895 2409 9056 1977 1152 2017 2781 3545 2136 5814
2020-12-09 619 1566 3857 1572 3836 2759 3145 1135 5533 8006 11160 2047 4908 2689 4106 3897 3618 5774 43440 3333 10360 5503 2624 15660 2591 7628 1650 30970 1820 1743 7277 1790 4349 16310 1632 6055 2418 2359 3559 4980 10210 8854 2031 3935 2932 3499 2759 1743 3992 6688 2663 1709 2458 9407 9467 2883 1414 1215 4038 2490 1238 1347 3878 1005 20300 9549 1445 1570 7199 2232 3738 2918 1408 8478 1341 12910 3458 2838 11550 8825 733 1813 1621 2422 4088 1780 10720 3828 2371 1356 1747 959 2288 7217 2885 1475 3132 2860 1595 1488 2263 934 2644 8093 3724 2545 1237 3081 1778 5172 2352 4831 1793 4029 2186 4876 1665 3817 5806 1061 4285 866 1954 7825 2678 2087 2490 6994 2677 1711 6195 2136 4272 2039 1036 4014 2850 2075 2270 11240 3794 20490 8065 6130 4404 37710 18870 1082 4760 2872 4125 24740 6668 4109 559 1011 32890 3086 9242 1220 1063 3985 778 875 2108 5946 4504 1433 1902 3281 16380 4865 8523 1009 3019 5539 1707 2541 5235 762 4556 7345 1930 2436 6090 9279 1978 18100 4008 2699 15440 3642 5186 5068 4212 4854 7659 3125 8927 4794 2205 2339 2165 3167 1074 13250 1229 3565 1071 11750 2329 1867 3473 1612 521 807 14150 13380 3147 1717 10940 2276 1805 26780 5959 4502 6380 1664 1347 1511 3242 6797 646 2042 2826 2246 1719 1622 1870 3921 1778 3853 6223 4173 3171 5409 1964 2232 7979 4271 2839 1324 11110 8160 10800 2098 1538 11670 1531 4001 6460 4330 10940 2405 1312 1039 4513 1776 1603 1147 5006 1691 3788 2439 2044 567 7792 9078 1519 1242 1669 14780 10230 6469 6036 8513 3327 2220 1792 2013 1543 1954 1814 475 4829 2058 1482 1696 4418 17700 5710 1805 2602 10290 1929 2435 9157 1984 1162 2033 2814 3560 2143 5829

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-03 to 2020-12-09

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-02 587 1481 3611 1417 3641 2520 2893 1056 4971 7408 10699 1999 4151 2521 3828 3722 3419 5216 41454 3214 9897 5332 2573 15401 2256 7363 1538 29747 1654 1685 6749 1636 4181 15664 1496 5437 2365 1961 3416 4738 10021 8321 1934 3698 2728 2990 2676 1577 3751 6451 2476 1596 2336 9244 9180 2759 1277 1146 3829 2350 1195 1265 3822 987 19659 8955 1358 1499 6467 2081 3481 2638 1331 8019 1266 12246 3295 2446 10876 8235 675 1646 1552 2213 3676 1686 10108 3721 2237 1263 1690 925 2044 6588 2630 1362 2985 2723 1430 1330 1979 856 2525 7895 3550 2309 1121 2681 1685 4648 2207 4769 1748 3825 2097 4610 1446 3669 5152 1004 4059 769 1830 7017 2539 1938 2405 6485 2568 1611 5749 2067 3902 1902 989 3749 2682 1949 2126 10684 3482 19662 7890 5770 4249 36400 18081 1012 4442 2740 3261 24310 6191 3354 539 958 31667 3021 7268 1185 951 3629 712 835 1953 5750 4078 1345 1882 3062 15937 4604 7737 916 2934 5351 1582 2289 4937 690 4253 6988 1821 2379 5783 8780 1809 17272 3540 2524 15031 3464 4919 4672 4081 4548 7360 2856 8044 4641 2057 2197 2064 3003 1015 12933 1129 3380 938 11278 2156 1802 3373 1586 492 752 13582 12760 2998 1591 10649 2163 1643 25912 5877 4078 6107 1557 1260 1437 3069 6406 614 1915 2574 2167 1554 1533 1796 3712 1598 3643 5938 4020 2677 5084 1830 2075 7770 4040 2723 1225 10738 7769 9864 2018 1452 11292 1409 3476 4968 4074 10611 2268 1216 983 4294 1687 1546 1044 4362 1570 3275 1958 1964 460 7123 8820 1423 1167 1583 13931 9722 5792 5597 8351 3160 2077 1703 1805 1444 1830 1716 436 4695 1856 1466 1615 4170 16917 5289 1768 2490 10110 1731 2256 8457 1934 1091 1923 2583 3422 2090 5722
2020-12-03 591 1492 3643 1428 3661 2559 2929 1066 5053 7493 10740 2003 4267 2542 3877 3741 3449 5306 41720 3235 9960 5356 2588 15450 2302 7390 1558 29890 1666 1697 6813 1663 4205 15740 1516 5519 2379 1999 3436 4769 10060 8383 1949 3732 2754 3063 2682 1605 3789 6483 2497 1607 2349 9299 9221 2773 1286 1156 3853 2373 1198 1275 3839 992 19750 9028 1369 1506 6551 2105 3516 2677 1342 8076 1274 12330 3315 2512 10960 8301 685 1667 1560 2245 3713 1694 10170 3756 2256 1270 1699 927 2068 6684 2671 1375 3002 2740 1442 1347 2024 863 2536 7918 3568 2341 1134 2738 1701 4738 2227 4784 1755 3849 2108 4672 1477 3687 5213 1012 4085 789 1853 7130 2551 1960 2414 6561 2582 1623 5815 2078 3927 1925 994 3787 2703 1967 2145 10750 3539 19770 7908 5821 4272 36560 18190 1020 4492 2762 3320 24360 6271 3466 548 963 31810 3037 7534 1196 961 3685 718 840 1973 5784 4141 1356 1890 3099 15990 4641 7854 926 2947 5381 1601 2329 4976 702 4287 7031 1834 2391 5830 8851 1839 17350 3571 2544 15070 3490 4953 4732 4097 4582 7401 2893 8171 4661 2070 2219 2076 3021 1023 12980 1149 3405 958 11350 2174 1834 3387 1593 496 757 13630 12850 3022 1606 10670 2177 1664 26020 5901 4126 6150 1572 1271 1447 3090 6459 617 1932 2607 2180 1571 1543 1806 3740 1625 3665 5978 4037 2730 5119 1848 2099 7801 4071 2750 1240 10780 7815 10000 2022 1463 11350 1423 3535 5151 4110 10650 2286 1232 989 4323 1699 1555 1057 4430 1589 3335 2005 1976 470 7202 8840 1448 1179 1594 14020 9800 5876 5653 8382 3179 2098 1717 1831 1458 1848 1728 443 4713 1882 1471 1624 4204 17020 5341 1779 2512 10130 1764 2291 8524 1944 1095 1936 2617 3437 2101 5739
2020-12-04 594 1499 3668 1440 3679 2592 2962 1076 5130 7565 10780 2007 4366 2565 3906 3765 3474 5370 41950 3256 10020 5376 2601 15520 2345 7414 1572 30020 1685 1706 6879 1682 4222 15840 1535 5594 2390 2028 3452 4803 10100 8436 1960 3753 2778 3125 2694 1629 3818 6509 2518 1621 2361 9345 9251 2786 1293 1163 3882 2390 1202 1285 3856 994 19840 9098 1379 1510 6630 2127 3548 2711 1351 8111 1281 12400 3329 2573 11040 8378 693 1685 1568 2272 3754 1719 10220 3784 2272 1279 1707 927 2088 6760 2706 1390 3016 2758 1452 1364 2063 873 2549 7940 3586 2374 1149 2795 1710 4802 2245 4801 1763 3873 2117 4738 1508 3702 5267 1019 4108 800 1863 7233 2561 1981 2422 6626 2590 1634 5868 2087 3953 1945 999 3823 2723 1980 2165 10800 3581 19860 7926 5867 4292 36710 18280 1028 4539 2775 3373 24410 6342 3595 555 970 31930 3053 7816 1204 975 3738 725 846 1992 5808 4198 1368 1894 3127 16030 4673 7966 937 2957 5411 1615 2360 5007 709 4315 7075 1845 2403 5872 8903 1859 17410 3604 2564 15110 3509 4994 4780 4113 4601 7429 2924 8310 4674 2088 2237 2086 3045 1028 13050 1167 3430 976 11400 2194 1855 3400 1602 499 763 13660 12940 3033 1620 10700 2187 1684 26140 5922 4181 6179 1585 1282 1454 3102 6498 620 1949 2635 2192 1590 1555 1814 3764 1646 3682 6016 4052 2769 5162 1863 2119 7829 4100 2771 1251 10810 7852 10110 2030 1474 11380 1437 3573 5272 4141 10680 2300 1244 996 4350 1712 1561 1070 4514 1604 3389 2053 1982 480 7303 8870 1465 1192 1604 14080 9870 5967 5696 8406 3195 2117 1727 1857 1470 1863 1736 447 4724 1909 1475 1634 4232 17080 5395 1787 2531 10150 1786 2319 8620 1951 1099 1945 2646 3451 2113 5755
2020-12-05 597 1506 3693 1451 3690 2625 2986 1085 5193 7626 10830 2011 4464 2585 3936 3777 3498 5425 42170 3278 10070 5396 2612 15570 2386 7433 1586 30130 1700 1715 6937 1702 4238 15890 1552 5666 2399 2053 3467 4832 10130 8482 1971 3773 2801 3188 2702 1647 3847 6535 2539 1633 2369 9386 9281 2799 1300 1171 3906 2408 1206 1295 3872 996 19910 9167 1388 1515 6705 2145 3581 2740 1360 8148 1290 12450 3341 2632 11120 8438 700 1702 1575 2298 3794 1727 10270 3813 2289 1288 1714 928 2106 6835 2742 1401 3027 2775 1463 1375 2100 879 2559 7961 3601 2406 1164 2852 1719 4864 2263 4819 1770 3897 2126 4789 1538 3714 5306 1026 4130 811 1873 7336 2571 2003 2428 6687 2599 1643 5918 2097 3978 1969 1004 3858 2743 1994 2181 10840 3623 19960 7939 5906 4306 36820 18350 1036 4580 2787 3423 24440 6411 3686 560 976 32010 3068 8032 1212 986 3789 730 851 2009 5831 4254 1380 1899 3147 16080 4705 8048 947 2970 5439 1630 2390 5037 719 4343 7110 1855 2416 5913 8950 1880 17470 3635 2583 15150 3527 5023 4820 4124 4618 7453 2956 8421 4687 2106 2253 2096 3054 1034 13100 1185 3455 990 11460 2213 1874 3412 1610 503 768 13690 12980 3042 1634 10720 2197 1705 26230 5942 4224 6206 1599 1291 1459 3115 6533 623 1966 2661 2204 1604 1567 1820 3791 1666 3702 6055 4065 2804 5185 1877 2138 7854 4127 2790 1263 10840 7883 10210 2036 1483 11420 1451 3610 5398 4172 10710 2312 1256 1004 4374 1725 1568 1082 4579 1619 3426 2098 1989 490 7346 8886 1482 1201 1612 14150 9930 6033 5739 8428 3210 2136 1737 1881 1481 1878 1744 452 4739 1936 1479 1640 4260 17130 5448 1795 2550 10150 1814 2342 8678 1958 1103 1953 2674 3464 2124 5770
2020-12-06 600 1513 3718 1462 3704 2658 3017 1094 5263 7700 10870 2014 4564 2605 3965 3795 3522 5483 42420 3299 10100 5415 2625 15610 2421 7448 1600 30250 1709 1724 6998 1721 4255 15930 1570 5735 2410 2075 3480 4857 10160 8524 1981 3795 2825 3250 2706 1664 3875 6561 2560 1647 2378 9429 9308 2812 1307 1178 3929 2426 1209 1304 3888 999 20000 9236 1398 1518 6782 2163 3614 2772 1369 8184 1298 12520 3352 2693 11190 8495 707 1720 1581 2324 3833 1736 10310 3841 2306 1297 1721 929 2125 6912 2777 1412 3043 2793 1473 1381 2139 884 2571 7983 3616 2439 1179 2910 1727 4926 2280 4836 1777 3921 2135 4844 1568 3728 5346 1032 4153 822 1883 7435 2582 2025 2433 6752 2607 1652 5965 2107 4003 1988 1009 3894 2763 2007 2196 10880 3665 20050 7951 5948 4323 36930 18440 1042 4613 2800 3474 24480 6479 3775 566 981 32110 3084 8287 1220 1001 3837 736 856 2026 5854 4310 1392 1903 3168 16120 4736 8134 958 2982 5469 1645 2420 5065 724 4368 7146 1866 2425 5958 9004 1901 17530 3669 2602 15180 3545 5044 4857 4132 4637 7477 2984 8539 4700 2125 2266 2107 3063 1040 13140 1203 3480 1004 11510 2232 1902 3423 1618 507 773 13720 13030 3049 1648 10740 2208 1725 26330 5963 4270 6234 1612 1301 1467 3129 6571 627 1983 2694 2216 1615 1580 1828 3817 1687 3722 6094 4077 2834 5213 1891 2157 7873 4157 2808 1274 10870 7917 10320 2043 1491 11460 1466 3652 5520 4203 10730 2323 1267 1010 4398 1738 1574 1094 4655 1634 3462 2139 1998 498 7392 8901 1498 1211 1620 14220 10000 6121 5781 8454 3226 2155 1748 1900 1491 1894 1750 457 4751 1964 1482 1646 4286 17200 5501 1803 2568 10170 1830 2365 8738 1965 1106 1962 2703 3478 2137 5784
2020-12-07 604 1521 3742 1484 3735 2692 3059 1103 5367 7801 10930 2018 4671 2627 3994 3822 3546 5551 42710 3320 10170 5436 2644 15690 2477 7493 1614 30400 1744 1733 7077 1740 4270 16020 1589 5817 2431 2112 3503 4891 10230 8584 1992 3834 2849 3314 2730 1695 3903 6589 2582 1661 2391 9491 9339 2826 1313 1186 3961 2444 1213 1314 3907 1001 20080 9305 1408 1523 6864 2183 3647 2823 1378 8222 1307 12610 3363 2762 11270 8611 715 1750 1590 2350 3874 1749 10370 3869 2322 1313 1728 933 2144 6998 2813 1431 3067 2810 1484 1403 2180 899 2592 8008 3649 2472 1194 2968 1736 4993 2298 4855 1785 3945 2154 4899 1601 3749 5405 1039 4175 833 1894 7552 2595 2047 2441 6816 2617 1667 6033 2117 4028 2019 1014 3930 2789 2021 2218 10940 3707 20170 7973 6004 4344 37090 18560 1051 4669 2815 3526 24540 6546 3901 574 990 32240 3100 8623 1228 1019 3890 746 861 2046 5876 4367 1405 1907 3200 16160 4767 8268 969 2998 5509 1660 2451 5098 736 4400 7196 1877 2438 6003 9068 1922 17600 3703 2629 15250 3565 5091 4928 4153 4658 7519 3016 8670 4713 2143 2288 2117 3087 1046 13240 1221 3505 1026 11590 2251 1924 3439 1627 511 780 13770 13130 3064 1664 10770 2219 1746 26440 5983 4327 6271 1625 1313 1477 3143 6620 630 2000 2748 2227 1645 1596 1836 3847 1707 3746 6133 4091 2871 5283 1906 2176 7900 4191 2830 1285 10920 7954 10440 2058 1504 11500 1485 3686 5666 4235 10770 2337 1281 1017 4427 1750 1580 1109 4760 1649 3545 2195 2005 509 7515 8937 1518 1222 1629 14300 10070 6228 5824 8494 3243 2174 1758 1944 1507 1909 1759 461 4769 1992 1488 1662 4318 17290 5555 1812 2587 10200 1858 2397 8849 1974 1110 1973 2731 3497 2151 5800
2020-12-08 607 1528 3768 1498 3759 2725 3105 1112 5444 7877 10980 2021 4783 2651 4024 3840 3571 5615 43010 3342 10210 5458 2662 15780 2535 7528 1628 30530 1771 1744 7161 1761 4283 16080 1608 5894 2444 2146 3520 4928 10290 8641 2003 3863 2874 3379 2748 1717 3932 6617 2603 1676 2399 9541 9371 2841 1320 1193 3991 2462 1217 1324 3923 1003 20170 9377 1418 1531 6941 2204 3680 2860 1385 8266 1315 12700 3375 2831 11350 8688 723 1772 1599 2377 3922 1761 10440 3899 2339 1328 1737 937 2164 7077 2850 1443 3082 2828 1494 1413 2223 913 2608 8032 3675 2506 1209 3028 1745 5062 2315 4870 1792 3970 2165 4954 1635 3763 5477 1046 4198 844 1906 7656 2607 2069 2451 6883 2625 1681 6099 2127 4053 2043 1019 3967 2811 2034 2236 10990 3750 20290 7995 6050 4365 37240 18670 1061 4716 2829 3587 24580 6615 4012 581 997 32370 3116 8943 1236 1037 3945 753 866 2065 5897 4425 1417 1911 3223 16210 4800 8392 980 3011 5546 1675 2482 5131 744 4435 7242 1888 2450 6047 9133 1944 17660 3738 2650 15320 3582 5127 4982 4167 4676 7560 3050 8797 4726 2162 2310 2128 3114 1052 13290 1240 3530 1042 11650 2271 1945 3453 1635 514 786 13830 13230 3076 1679 10800 2232 1767 26550 6004 4387 6304 1639 1323 1484 3159 6658 633 2017 2780 2239 1662 1613 1843 3880 1730 3768 6172 4107 2909 5332 1920 2196 7929 4222 2852 1296 10980 7990 10550 2070 1514 11530 1502 3725 5795 4267 10830 2351 1296 1025 4454 1763 1587 1122 4841 1664 3614 2246 2010 518 7606 8964 1535 1232 1638 14380 10140 6351 5867 8518 3258 2194 1768 1986 1521 1925 1767 466 4781 2020 1493 1675 4348 17370 5609 1820 2604 10210 1887 2421 8950 1981 1114 1981 2760 3513 2164 5817
2020-12-09 611 1535 3793 1511 3785 2760 3145 1121 5536 7961 11030 2025 4894 2670 4053 3853 3596 5677 43290 3364 10260 5480 2677 15870 2589 7563 1642 30670 1808 1754 7248 1781 4298 16150 1626 5972 2456 2174 3540 4965 10350 8698 2015 3899 2898 3445 2762 1741 3961 6642 2624 1690 2407 9589 9397 2855 1327 1201 4019 2480 1220 1334 3939 1006 20260 9448 1428 1537 7033 2223 3714 2897 1394 8312 1323 12780 3387 2899 11430 8773 730 1793 1606 2404 3965 1772 10490 3928 2356 1344 1743 939 2184 7155 2887 1455 3093 2846 1505 1434 2266 920 2623 8058 3697 2540 1224 3088 1753 5131 2333 4893 1800 3994 2176 5024 1669 3776 5517 1053 4220 855 1919 7763 2619 2091 2459 6949 2632 1691 6169 2137 4079 2067 1025 4004 2833 2048 2256 11040 3793 20390 8017 6098 4383 37410 18770 1073 4766 2844 3644 24630 6687 4149 587 1005 32500 3132 9278 1244 1055 4000 762 871 2085 5919 4484 1429 1915 3260 16250 4832 8525 991 3025 5580 1690 2513 5170 757 4462 7288 1899 2462 6093 9190 1965 17730 3773 2670 15380 3600 5169 5041 4187 4698 7595 3083 8937 4739 2181 2329 2138 3139 1058 13360 1259 3556 1061 11710 2290 1963 3463 1644 516 793 13890 13320 3086 1695 10840 2245 1788 26660 6025 4448 6338 1653 1333 1489 3179 6709 636 2034 2814 2251 1682 1627 1850 3913 1752 3791 6213 4120 2937 5380 1935 2216 7954 4254 2870 1308 11020 8027 10670 2078 1527 11590 1518 3767 5952 4300 10860 2364 1307 1031 4482 1777 1593 1136 4922 1679 3679 2296 2017 529 7711 8986 1549 1240 1645 14450 10220 6446 5911 8548 3272 2213 1779 2018 1534 1941 1773 471 4797 2049 1497 1686 4378 17430 5664 1827 2622 10230 1912 2445 9052 1988 1118 1990 2790 3531 2176 5831

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.