COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-02

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	11-03	10-21	10-27	11-08	10-21	--	10-25	10-31	11-19	11-08	10-13	10-04	--	11-02	10-26	10-18	11-05	11-04	11-03	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-24	10-12	11-16	10-31	10-27	10-24	11-17	10-15	11-08	--	10-12	10-27	10-27	--	11-02	--	10-04	10-01	10-25	10-29	11-02	10-05	10-24	--	10-25	--	10-27	10-13	11-06	11-01	10-29	10-27	10-28	10-22	10-28	10-24	10-11	10-07	10-27	10-31	11-02	10-30	10-03	11-03	11-02	10-18	--	11-06	11-04	11-12	11-01	10-26	11-02	10-13	10-29	--	11-02	11-01	09-30	11-01	10-25	11-03	11-03	10-27	10-27	11-02	11-03	11-09	10-20	10-28	--	11-09	11-09	11-03	10-11	09-27	10-28	--	--	11-10	10-11	10-27	10-11	11-11	11-03	11-19	10-30	--	10-27	09-27	10-25	10-17	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	10-27	11-03	--	11-05	11-05	11-02	--	10-27	11-04	11-01	11-02	11-07	10-29	10-11	--	04-21	10-25	10-13	11-03	10-25	10-28	10-12	10-27	09-29	10-24	10-07	09-27	11-02	11-08	--	11-01	--	09-29	--	--	--	10-25	09-22	10-25	--	11-01	11-15	--	11-08	10-27	11-04	11-03	11-03	10-24	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-01	--	11-03	10-14	10-25	11-03	10-27	11-04	11-13	11-01	11-03	11-03	11-01	10-25	10-31	11-10	09-30	11-01	11-02	10-25	11-03	10-11	11-11	11-02	11-03	10-13	--	11-20	11-03	10-26	11-01	10-13	10-13	11-01	10-23	--	10-12	11-13	10-22	11-02	--	10-09	10-11	10-28	11-02	10-19	10-29	11-01	11-04	09-30	11-03	11-05	09-29	10-31	11-02	10-31	10-27	11-05	10-28	10-25	10-31	11-01	11-02	10-25	11-09	11-02	10-25	10-30	10-13	11-03	10-25	11-03	11-02	--	10-12	11-01	11-03	10-09	10-25	10-31	11-03	10-18	10-12	11-01	10-23	10-29	11-01	11-01	--	--	11-01	10-18	10-29	11-01	10-24	10-28	10-05	11-02	11-04	11-19	11-03	--	--	10-25	--	11-05	10-13	--	10-31	11-02	10-25	10-30	--	11-01	10-20	10-17	10-26	10-22	11-08	11-03	10-25	10-29	10-25	10-05	11-01	10-26	10-13	10-23	10-24	11-08	11-02	10-27	10-04	--	11-04	11-02	10-30	10-22	10-27	10-27	10-11	10-31	10-06
Peak daily increment	8	28	84	45	62		42	19	90	96	191	28		34	79	72	37	90	605	61	163	99	56	234	50	136	21	447	26	50	98		71	321	25		37		57	70	161	140	46	47	52		41		49	132	32	26	35	129	143	54	24	14	62	32	23	19	64	20	291	137	20	30		27	51	47	27	167	26	248	56		246	115	16	36	28	36	102	31	222	75	29	18	32	16		100	40	29	55	76	26			15	41	130	71	37	23	62	28		33	71	34	55	42			66		15	73		40	132	46		43	95	51	22	76	28	59		16	52	35	27	29	280	47	361	152	73	85	542	249	13		60		529				14	612	62		26	19		15	10	31	89	69	25	33	55	392	83		20	51	160	26	48	106	21	86	115	34	56	89	129	27	615	66	39	265	48	64	61	81	82	101		135	92	43	37	41	42	17	199		63	20	199	43		66	18	7	16	237	230	83	27	185	35	30	438	109	73	92	22	18	25	66	139	12	26	43	81	38	32	27	70	34	76	85	74		61	33	30	118	83	57	18	183	125	187	31	31	155	25			65	177	46	18	15	89	21	18	19	112	23			48		114	138		17	25	251	159		75	135	58	26	22	41	18	29	27	8	91	34	22	24	63	322	83	31	38	137		32	135	37	15	31	46	65	40	130
Days since peak	29	42	36	24	42		38	32	13	24	50	59		30	37	45	27	28	29	30	45	52	39	51	16	32	36	39	15	48	24		51	36	36		30		59	62	38	34	30	58	39		38		36	50	26	31	34	36	35	41	35	39	52	56	36	32	30	33	60	29	30	45		26	28	20	31	37	30	50	34		30	31	63	31	38	29	29	36	36	30	29	23	43	35		23	23	29	52	66	35			22	52	36	52	21	29	13	33		36	66	38	46	29			37		36	29		27	27	30		36	28	31	30	25	34	52		225	38	50	29	38	35	51	36	64	39	56	66	30	24		31		64				38	71	38		31	17		24	36	28	29	29	39	30	66	67	31		29	49	38	29	36	28	19	31	29	29	31	38	32	22	63	31	30	38	29	52	21	30	29	50		12	29	37	31	50	50	31	40		51	19	41	30		54	52	35	30	44	34	31	28	63	29	27	64	32	30	32	36	27	35	38	32	31	30	38	23	30	38	33	50	29	38	29	30		51	31	29	54	38	32	29	45	51	31	40	34	31	31			31	45	34	31	39	35	58	30	28	13	29			38		27	50		32	30	38	33		31	43	46	37	41	24	29	38	34	38	58	31	37	50	40	39	24	30	36	59		28	30	33	41	36	36	52	32	57
Last total	587	1481	3611	1417	3641	2520	2893	1056	4971	7408	10699	1999	4151	2521	3828	3722	3419	5216	41454	3214	9897	5332	2573	15401	2256	7363	1538	29747	1654	1685	6749	1636	4181	15664	1496	5437	2365	1961	3416	4738	10021	8321	1934	3698	2728	2990	2676	1577	3751	6451	2476	1596	2336	9244	9180	2759	1277	1146	3829	2350	1195	1265	3822	987	19659	8955	1358	1499	6467	2081	3481	2638	1331	8019	1266	12246	3295	2446	10876	8235	675	1646	1552	2213	3676	1686	10108	3721	2237	1263	1690	925	2044	6588	2630	1362	2985	2723	1430	1330	1979	856	2525	7895	3550	2309	1121	2681	1685	4648	2207	4769	1748	3825	2097	4610	1446	3669	5152	1004	4059	769	1830	7017	2539	1938	2405	6485	2568	1611	5749	2067	3902	1902	989	3749	2682	1949	2126	10684	3482	19662	7890	5770	4249	36400	18081	1012	4442	2740	3261	24310	6191	3354	539	958	31667	3021	7268	1185	951	3629	712	835	1953	5750	4078	1345	1882	3062	15937	4604	7737	916	2934	5351	1582	2289	4937	690	4253	6988	1821	2379	5783	8780	1809	17272	3540	2524	15031	3464	4919	4672	4081	4548	7360	2856	8044	4641	2057	2197	2064	3003	1015	12933	1129	3380	938	11278	2156	1802	3373	1586	492	752	13582	12760	2998	1591	10649	2163	1643	25912	5877	4078	6107	1557	1260	1437	3069	6406	614	1915	2574	2167	1554	1533	1796	3712	1598	3643	5938	4020	2677	5084	1830	2075	7770	4040	2723	1225	10738	7769	9864	2018	1452	11292	1409	3476	4968	4074	10611	2268	1216	983	4294	1687	1546	1044	4362	1570	3275	1958	1964	460	7123	8820	1423	1167	1583	13931	9722	5792	5597	8351	3160	2077	1703	1805	1444	1830	1716	436	4695	1856	1466	1615	4170	16917	5289	1768	2490	10110	1731	2256	8457	1934	1091	1923	2583	3422	2090	5722
Last daily increment	5	18	40	10	33	41	34	10	119	137	59	5	132	25	46	17	36	112	325	25	68	31	19	64	61	35	32	162	34	13	73	34	33	91	21	86	16	44	19	37	74	56	18	37	28	75	14	38	50	39	17	6	20	53	42	17	8	8	21	29	1	11	20	7	109	75	9	12	97	27	34	34	10	65	7	97	15	50	102	94	15	24	10	35	34	5	49	40	21	15	10	4	31	141	56	10	23	14	11	17	48	6	6	22	13	30	9	50	23	89	17	16	6	22	23	78	28	29	80	7	33	29	37	125	13	26	15	86	18	15	90	10	28	22	3	35	23	17	31	78	80	112	20	54	18	176	97	9	63	26	77	58	71	103	13	3	152	23	217	15	14	61	11	2	31	43	67	8	13	36	56	35	135	7	17	25	23	54	45	25	36	49	20	15	67	92	59	68	33	28	59	23	42	59	18	62	55	41	129	23	9	25	13	32	6	52	26	23	35	61	17	45	10	10	3	7	59	118	36	15	37	9	19	111	25	49	64	15	14	13	26	39	3	13	41	13	33	14	14	24	32	21	32	23	44	49	22	29	30	33	26	17	42	39	114	7	21	81	9	69	145	34	33	24	18	4	25	6	14	13	87	25	68	49	6	9	103	25	33	16	16	84	69	132	65	33	17	18	16	24	16	15	13	6	32	22	9	8	30	72	49	7	25	20	40	41	79	13	2	13	35	12	11	17
Last week	22	61	161	87	140	221	233	66	556	556	332	38	600	147	263	148	169	511	1778	155	368	162	100	433	278	226	129	936	135	76	402	152	159	539	127	494	94	184	109	198	373	388	68	193	161	378	62	140	213	199	156	62	97	345	302	113	45	73	170	145	23	57	127	41	650	411	74	40	494	136	193	242	78	287	51	560	116	319	588	473	55	131	54	201	238	85	442	213	103	64	60	23	129	564	253	103	125	112	73	98	241	54	81	189	136	177	88	325	105	392	128	126	51	143	82	411	176	129	391	48	186	98	118	718	98	131	70	437	104	77	347	72	136	149	27	250	133	106	122	458	311	766	122	329	132	1012	718	45	299	131	319	370	497	587	54	42	781	122	1425	79	69	327	45	39	129	207	402	86	58	186	340	256	713	60	86	248	110	248	254	59	214	284	73	100	309	452	155	423	197	114	335	155	231	339	124	240	237	196	757	148	94	131	68	134	45	420	113	148	127	428	109	196	108	54	28	34	294	625	153	80	173	76	135	712	174	318	276	97	65	68	114	319	30	129	259	81	123	89	65	147	154	153	269	135	240	303	110	135	198	205	176	101	285	260	778	56	87	371	100	264	753	215	247	103	105	43	171	85	49	73	527	110	317	268	45	59	570	192	148	73	78	535	502	626	330	213	117	137	75	155	85	114	67	41	121	150	40	79	193	537	319	61	141	140	188	179	539	68	23	70	227	107	86	109
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																			29														75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																			1														6	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-03 to 2020-12-09

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-02	587	1481	3611	1417	3641	2520	2893	1056	4971	7408	10699	1999	4151	2521	3828	3722	3419	5216	41454	3214	9897	5332	2573	15401	2256	7363	1538	29747	1654	1685	6749	1636	4181	15664	1496	5437	2365	1961	3416	4738	10021	8321	1934	3698	2728	2990	2676	1577	3751	6451	2476	1596	2336	9244	9180	2759	1277	1146	3829	2350	1195	1265	3822	987	19659	8955	1358	1499	6467	2081	3481	2638	1331	8019	1266	12246	3295	2446	10876	8235	675	1646	1552	2213	3676	1686	10108	3721	2237	1263	1690	925	2044	6588	2630	1362	2985	2723	1430	1330	1979	856	2525	7895	3550	2309	1121	2681	1685	4648	2207	4769	1748	3825	2097	4610	1446	3669	5152	1004	4059	769	1830	7017	2539	1938	2405	6485	2568	1611	5749	2067	3902	1902	989	3749	2682	1949	2126	10684	3482	19662	7890	5770	4249	36400	18081	1012	4442	2740	3261	24310	6191	3354	539	958	31667	3021	7268	1185	951	3629	712	835	1953	5750	4078	1345	1882	3062	15937	4604	7737	916	2934	5351	1582	2289	4937	690	4253	6988	1821	2379	5783	8780	1809	17272	3540	2524	15031	3464	4919	4672	4081	4548	7360	2856	8044	4641	2057	2197	2064	3003	1015	12933	1129	3380	938	11278	2156	1802	3373	1586	492	752	13582	12760	2998	1591	10649	2163	1643	25912	5877	4078	6107	1557	1260	1437	3069	6406	614	1915	2574	2167	1554	1533	1796	3712	1598	3643	5938	4020	2677	5084	1830	2075	7770	4040	2723	1225	10738	7769	9864	2018	1452	11292	1409	3476	4968	4074	10611	2268	1216	983	4294	1687	1546	1044	4362	1570	3275	1958	1964	460	7123	8820	1423	1167	1583	13931	9722	5792	5597	8351	3160	2077	1703	1805	1444	1830	1716	436	4695	1856	1466	1615	4170	16917	5289	1768	2490	10110	1731	2256	8457	1934	1091	1923	2583	3422	2090	5722
2020-12-03	592	1493	3647	1440	3696	2554	2926	1067	5014	7497	10770	2006	4258	2546	3871	3748	3449	5301	41840	3232	10000	5359	2580	15460	2303	7418	1555	29980	1678	1693	6892	1660	4207	15820	1516	5526	2372	2058	3455	4773	10020	8432	1949	3758	2757	3067	2689	1601	3788	6486	2502	1612	2354	9266	9223	2777	1299	1156	3859	2370	1201	1277	3832	990	19750	9040	1371	1510	6572	2104	3518	2695	1342	8138	1277	12360	3334	2500	10980	8321	684	1671	1562	2244	3734	1699	10200	3735	2257	1277	1699	932	2084	6683	2667	1378	3007	2743	1456	1374	2019	867	2542	7944	3599	2343	1137	2739	1698	4830	2228	4777	1755	3855	2111	4637	1477	3691	5279	1012	4092	784	1850	7135	2560	1960	2423	6561	2584	1626	5858	2077	3957	1922	996	3788	2706	1968	2147	10770	3529	19780	7945	5823	4272	36790	18240	1022	4482	2774	3382	24400	6260	3477	543	965	31980	3031	7648	1190	967	3680	722	841	1976	5779	4140	1358	1886	3110	16000	4644	7835	929	2944	5370	1600	2326	5004	701	4299	7044	1837	2388	5821	8858	1834	17410	3610	2550	15140	3491	4977	4741	4128	4596	7435	2896	8187	4664	2078	2218	2079	3045	1024	13010	1144	3407	949	11370	2180	1810	3388	1589	496	760	13760	12870	3022	1609	10750	2198	1666	26100	5891	4184	6141	1573	1273	1448	3122	6503	619	1933	2612	2179	1578	1547	1807	3742	1625	3702	5981	4042	2798	5126	1850	2098	7805	4083	2740	1240	10820	7877	10000	2030	1466	11380	1427	3603	5514	4112	10700	2305	1231	991	4366	1700	1555	1059	4455	1588	3401	2028	1996	477	7253	8894	1438	1178	1596	14150	9800	5826	5664	8375	3185	2098	1716	1835	1459	1848	1732	442	4717	1885	1467	1627	4206	17130	5350	1773	2506	10150	1749	2282	8557	1941	1103	1939	2617	3453	2099	5738
2020-12-04	596	1505	3683	1462	3716	2588	2958	1079	5104	7583	10830	2013	4362	2570	3910	3773	3477	5381	42030	3249	10060	5379	2588	15500	2347	7443	1571	30150	1700	1701	6956	1682	4231	15920	1535	5613	2380	2118	3469	4808	10030	8504	1962	3781	2787	3141	2701	1625	3823	6520	2529	1628	2371	9289	9264	2795	1318	1166	3889	2390	1207	1289	3840	992	19840	9126	1383	1520	6674	2125	3555	2729	1353	8179	1287	12440	3358	2555	11080	8405	692	1694	1572	2274	3792	1713	10290	3751	2276	1290	1707	932	2121	6773	2703	1394	3020	2762	1480	1398	2058	878	2559	7964	3614	2377	1154	2796	1712	4885	2249	4787	1761	3884	2124	4692	1507	3712	5376	1021	4124	798	1865	7250	2580	1981	2434	6633	2600	1640	5908	2087	4010	1942	1003	3826	2730	1986	2168	10840	3574	19900	7969	5875	4294	36960	18330	1032	4532	2785	3499	24460	6327	3603	546	973	32140	3040	7928	1195	983	3730	732	847	1998	5807	4201	1370	1889	3138	16070	4682	7953	943	2945	5382	1618	2362	5040	711	4342	7094	1853	2397	5859	8914	1857	17530	3678	2576	15170	3517	5015	4793	4145	4640	7465	2935	8337	4686	2099	2238	2093	3070	1032	13050	1158	3434	970	11420	2205	1818	3403	1593	500	767	13820	12950	3043	1627	10780	2209	1689	26230	5903	4247	6166	1588	1285	1459	3136	6548	623	1952	2647	2191	1601	1559	1818	3772	1650	3726	6021	4064	2873	5172	1869	2121	7832	4106	2757	1254	10850	7928	10130	2042	1478	11420	1444	3672	5688	4149	10730	2321	1244	999	4391	1713	1563	1073	4546	1605	3472	2094	2006	493	7356	8929	1452	1189	1608	14250	9870	5925	5727	8388	3210	2119	1729	1865	1473	1866	1746	447	4731	1914	1469	1639	4242	17220	5410	1779	2522	10170	1774	2307	8658	1948	1114	1955	2650	3468	2106	5753
2020-12-05	601	1518	3717	1484	3729	2622	2978	1090	5168	7669	10900	2020	4469	2594	3951	3798	3506	5437	42190	3266	10120	5395	2595	15510	2383	7470	1587	30280	1717	1710	7002	1704	4255	15980	1555	5700	2388	2168	3482	4842	10040	8567	1976	3802	2815	3214	2713	1649	3857	6554	2555	1644	2389	9314	9306	2813	1338	1176	3919	2410	1213	1300	3848	995	19940	9209	1395	1531	6778	2147	3591	2754	1364	8217	1298	12510	3374	2610	11170	8490	701	1718	1582	2304	3850	1726	10370	3767	2295	1304	1715	937	2156	6863	2740	1410	3033	2782	1503	1414	2098	890	2575	7977	3626	2410	1170	2853	1725	4920	2270	4795	1768	3913	2137	4715	1538	3733	5459	1029	4156	812	1878	7365	2600	2002	2441	6707	2616	1655	5953	2096	4063	1961	1009	3864	2754	2004	2189	10920	3619	20020	7986	5927	4316	37090	18400	1042	4570	2790	3618	24500	6395	3687	549	981	32260	3050	8136	1200	999	3780	741	852	2020	5836	4262	1382	1892	3161	16130	4719	8038	956	2954	5388	1636	2398	5059	722	4386	7146	1868	2405	5887	8946	1882	17650	3744	2600	15210	3542	5043	4836	4153	4684	7492	2973	8431	4708	2119	2258	2107	3081	1041	13070	1172	3460	985	11470	2229	1829	3417	1597	504	775	13880	12990	3065	1645	10800	2216	1712	26320	5916	4283	6191	1603	1297	1469	3153	6584	628	1970	2684	2202	1624	1572	1828	3801	1677	3748	6062	4086	2944	5199	1888	2143	7857	4119	2774	1268	10890	7962	10270	2053	1491	11440	1461	3745	5803	4186	10760	2331	1258	1007	4404	1726	1571	1088	4637	1623	3518	2160	2015	508	7405	8952	1466	1199	1621	14360	9940	5997	5790	8400	3233	2139	1742	1894	1487	1884	1760	453	4751	1942	1472	1651	4277	17290	5469	1784	2538	10180	1803	2333	8757	1956	1123	1971	2683	3488	2114	5769
2020-12-06	606	1530	3752	1506	3760	2656	3012	1101	5236	7753	10960	2027	4575	2618	3990	3823	3534	5484	42480	3283	10160	5423	2603	15510	2406	7490	1603	30410	1727	1718	7056	1725	4279	16060	1574	5787	2395	2205	3493	4876	10040	8620	1990	3825	2844	3285	2724	1672	3891	6588	2582	1660	2406	9337	9346	2830	1357	1186	3949	2430	1219	1312	3856	998	20030	9294	1408	1541	6880	2168	3628	2785	1375	8256	1308	12580	3388	2665	11270	8573	709	1742	1591	2333	3909	1739	10460	3782	2314	1317	1723	940	2190	6951	2776	1426	3063	2801	1526	1431	2138	901	2592	7999	3639	2444	1187	2909	1738	4950	2290	4804	1774	3942	2149	4757	1569	3754	5519	1037	4188	825	1882	7479	2619	2023	2444	6778	2631	1669	5993	2106	4115	1980	1016	3901	2778	2022	2209	11000	3662	20140	7995	5977	4338	37190	18500	1052	4596	2803	3738	24540	6462	3773	551	988	32400	3059	8385	1205	1015	3830	750	858	2042	5863	4322	1395	1895	3186	16190	4755	8121	969	2966	5404	1654	2434	5086	732	4428	7196	1883	2413	5943	9020	1906	17760	3810	2625	15240	3567	5059	4877	4154	4726	7518	3010	8535	4729	2141	2278	2122	3092	1049	13090	1186	3486	998	11520	2254	1838	3431	1601	508	783	13940	13050	3085	1663	10830	2230	1735	26430	5927	4329	6235	1618	1310	1480	3171	6628	632	1988	2719	2213	1648	1585	1839	3831	1702	3771	6102	4108	3008	5233	1907	2165	7873	4147	2790	1282	10920	7996	10400	2064	1502	11480	1479	3830	5952	4222	10780	2351	1272	1015	4417	1738	1579	1103	4728	1640	3559	2226	2019	523	7467	8975	1480	1210	1633	14450	10010	6101	5851	8421	3257	2159	1754	1924	1501	1901	1773	459	4764	1971	1474	1662	4312	17410	5529	1789	2554	10210	1819	2358	8856	1963	1133	1986	2715	3503	2122	5784
2020-12-07	610	1542	3787	1528	3785	2690	3046	1112	5339	7837	11030	2034	4683	2641	4028	3847	3562	5584	42820	3300	10240	5450	2610	15550	2472	7556	1618	30630	1758	1726	7133	1747	4302	16160	1593	5875	2403	2270	3521	4911	10110	8708	2004	3865	2873	3356	2736	1695	3924	6621	2609	1676	2423	9360	9386	2848	1376	1196	3979	2450	1225	1324	3863	1000	20120	9378	1420	1550	6985	2190	3664	2849	1386	8340	1319	12700	3411	2722	11360	8656	717	1766	1601	2362	3968	1753	10550	3797	2333	1330	1731	947	2223	7039	2812	1442	3097	2821	1549	1453	2179	912	2610	8046	3681	2477	1204	2966	1751	5023	2310	4813	1781	3971	2162	4781	1600	3775	5624	1045	4221	838	1899	7593	2639	2044	2462	6849	2646	1683	6064	2116	4167	2000	1022	3939	2802	2039	2229	11080	3706	20260	8023	6028	4360	37340	18640	1062	4651	2824	3863	24620	6530	3887	554	996	32580	3068	8702	1210	1031	3881	760	864	2064	5891	4382	1407	1897	3218	16260	4792	8260	982	2995	5469	1671	2469	5134	742	4471	7245	1899	2420	5996	9115	1930	17880	3876	2649	15310	3592	5108	4949	4178	4769	7571	3048	8673	4751	2162	2298	2136	3117	1057	13160	1200	3512	1018	11620	2279	1848	3445	1604	512	791	14020	13140	3106	1681	10870	2244	1758	26560	5938	4388	6282	1634	1322	1490	3191	6685	637	2006	2755	2224	1672	1597	1849	3861	1727	3806	6142	4129	3072	5300	1926	2187	7909	4211	2807	1296	10990	8065	10530	2075	1514	11530	1496	3882	6156	4258	10850	2371	1285	1023	4459	1751	1587	1117	4820	1657	3661	2295	2031	537	7583	9023	1493	1220	1645	14580	10080	6225	5913	8462	3280	2180	1767	1953	1515	1919	1787	464	4784	2000	1477	1674	4347	17530	5589	1794	2570	10250	1854	2384	8956	1970	1143	2002	2748	3529	2129	5799
2020-12-08	615	1554	3822	1550	3806	2724	3108	1124	5427	7921	11090	2041	4794	2665	4067	3872	3590	5674	43110	3316	10290	5474	2617	15600	2532	7589	1634	30800	1785	1734	7202	1769	4326	16220	1613	5964	2411	2332	3539	4945	10140	8789	2018	3897	2902	3427	2748	1719	3958	6655	2636	1692	2441	9384	9427	2865	1395	1205	4008	2470	1232	1336	3871	1003	20210	9463	1432	1560	7091	2211	3701	2883	1397	8407	1330	12820	3437	2779	11460	8740	725	1789	1611	2392	4028	1766	10630	3813	2352	1343	1739	955	2255	7128	2848	1458	3117	2840	1572	1472	2220	923	2627	8068	3706	2511	1220	3023	1764	5101	2331	4822	1787	4000	2174	4816	1632	3796	5742	1053	4253	852	1922	7709	2658	2066	2474	6921	2661	1697	6115	2126	4219	2019	1029	3976	2826	2057	2250	11160	3750	20370	8046	6079	4382	37510	18760	1072	4701	2841	3992	24670	6599	3992	557	1003	32750	3077	8980	1215	1047	3933	769	870	2086	5918	4443	1420	1900	3243	16320	4828	8390	996	3004	5498	1689	2505	5177	752	4514	7295	1914	2428	6034	9198	1954	17990	3942	2674	15380	3617	5143	5005	4186	4811	7614	3087	8792	4772	2184	2318	2150	3138	1066	13200	1215	3539	1042	11680	2304	1858	3459	1608	516	799	14100	13250	3127	1699	10900	2261	1782	26660	5948	4447	6324	1649	1334	1500	3212	6742	641	2024	2790	2235	1695	1610	1860	3891	1752	3828	6182	4151	3154	5361	1945	2209	7945	4243	2823	1310	11060	8112	10660	2087	1526	11570	1514	3949	6323	4294	10900	2383	1299	1031	4482	1763	1595	1132	4912	1674	3740	2366	2036	552	7688	9052	1506	1231	1657	14690	10160	6354	5974	8481	3303	2200	1779	1983	1529	1936	1800	469	4800	2029	1479	1685	4382	17640	5650	1799	2586	10270	1895	2409	9056	1977	1152	2017	2781	3545	2136	5814
2020-12-09	619	1566	3857	1572	3836	2759	3145	1135	5533	8006	11160	2047	4908	2689	4106	3897	3618	5774	43440	3333	10360	5503	2624	15660	2591	7628	1650	30970	1820	1743	7277	1790	4349	16310	1632	6055	2418	2359	3559	4980	10210	8854	2031	3935	2932	3499	2759	1743	3992	6688	2663	1709	2458	9407	9467	2883	1414	1215	4038	2490	1238	1347	3878	1005	20300	9549	1445	1570	7199	2232	3738	2918	1408	8478	1341	12910	3458	2838	11550	8825	733	1813	1621	2422	4088	1780	10720	3828	2371	1356	1747	959	2288	7217	2885	1475	3132	2860	1595	1488	2263	934	2644	8093	3724	2545	1237	3081	1778	5172	2352	4831	1793	4029	2186	4876	1665	3817	5806	1061	4285	866	1954	7825	2678	2087	2490	6994	2677	1711	6195	2136	4272	2039	1036	4014	2850	2075	2270	11240	3794	20490	8065	6130	4404	37710	18870	1082	4760	2872	4125	24740	6668	4109	559	1011	32890	3086	9242	1220	1063	3985	778	875	2108	5946	4504	1433	1902	3281	16380	4865	8523	1009	3019	5539	1707	2541	5235	762	4556	7345	1930	2436	6090	9279	1978	18100	4008	2699	15440	3642	5186	5068	4212	4854	7659	3125	8927	4794	2205	2339	2165	3167	1074	13250	1229	3565	1071	11750	2329	1867	3473	1612	521	807	14150	13380	3147	1717	10940	2276	1805	26780	5959	4502	6380	1664	1347	1511	3242	6797	646	2042	2826	2246	1719	1622	1870	3921	1778	3853	6223	4173	3171	5409	1964	2232	7979	4271	2839	1324	11110	8160	10800	2098	1538	11670	1531	4001	6460	4330	10940	2405	1312	1039	4513	1776	1603	1147	5006	1691	3788	2439	2044	567	7792	9078	1519	1242	1669	14780	10230	6469	6036	8513	3327	2220	1792	2013	1543	1954	1814	475	4829	2058	1482	1696	4418	17700	5710	1805	2602	10290	1929	2435	9157	1984	1162	2033	2814	3560	2143	5829

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-03 to 2020-12-09

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-02	587	1481	3611	1417	3641	2520	2893	1056	4971	7408	10699	1999	4151	2521	3828	3722	3419	5216	41454	3214	9897	5332	2573	15401	2256	7363	1538	29747	1654	1685	6749	1636	4181	15664	1496	5437	2365	1961	3416	4738	10021	8321	1934	3698	2728	2990	2676	1577	3751	6451	2476	1596	2336	9244	9180	2759	1277	1146	3829	2350	1195	1265	3822	987	19659	8955	1358	1499	6467	2081	3481	2638	1331	8019	1266	12246	3295	2446	10876	8235	675	1646	1552	2213	3676	1686	10108	3721	2237	1263	1690	925	2044	6588	2630	1362	2985	2723	1430	1330	1979	856	2525	7895	3550	2309	1121	2681	1685	4648	2207	4769	1748	3825	2097	4610	1446	3669	5152	1004	4059	769	1830	7017	2539	1938	2405	6485	2568	1611	5749	2067	3902	1902	989	3749	2682	1949	2126	10684	3482	19662	7890	5770	4249	36400	18081	1012	4442	2740	3261	24310	6191	3354	539	958	31667	3021	7268	1185	951	3629	712	835	1953	5750	4078	1345	1882	3062	15937	4604	7737	916	2934	5351	1582	2289	4937	690	4253	6988	1821	2379	5783	8780	1809	17272	3540	2524	15031	3464	4919	4672	4081	4548	7360	2856	8044	4641	2057	2197	2064	3003	1015	12933	1129	3380	938	11278	2156	1802	3373	1586	492	752	13582	12760	2998	1591	10649	2163	1643	25912	5877	4078	6107	1557	1260	1437	3069	6406	614	1915	2574	2167	1554	1533	1796	3712	1598	3643	5938	4020	2677	5084	1830	2075	7770	4040	2723	1225	10738	7769	9864	2018	1452	11292	1409	3476	4968	4074	10611	2268	1216	983	4294	1687	1546	1044	4362	1570	3275	1958	1964	460	7123	8820	1423	1167	1583	13931	9722	5792	5597	8351	3160	2077	1703	1805	1444	1830	1716	436	4695	1856	1466	1615	4170	16917	5289	1768	2490	10110	1731	2256	8457	1934	1091	1923	2583	3422	2090	5722
2020-12-03	591	1492	3643	1428	3661	2559	2929	1066	5053	7493	10740	2003	4267	2542	3877	3741	3449	5306	41720	3235	9960	5356	2588	15450	2302	7390	1558	29890	1666	1697	6813	1663	4205	15740	1516	5519	2379	1999	3436	4769	10060	8383	1949	3732	2754	3063	2682	1605	3789	6483	2497	1607	2349	9299	9221	2773	1286	1156	3853	2373	1198	1275	3839	992	19750	9028	1369	1506	6551	2105	3516	2677	1342	8076	1274	12330	3315	2512	10960	8301	685	1667	1560	2245	3713	1694	10170	3756	2256	1270	1699	927	2068	6684	2671	1375	3002	2740	1442	1347	2024	863	2536	7918	3568	2341	1134	2738	1701	4738	2227	4784	1755	3849	2108	4672	1477	3687	5213	1012	4085	789	1853	7130	2551	1960	2414	6561	2582	1623	5815	2078	3927	1925	994	3787	2703	1967	2145	10750	3539	19770	7908	5821	4272	36560	18190	1020	4492	2762	3320	24360	6271	3466	548	963	31810	3037	7534	1196	961	3685	718	840	1973	5784	4141	1356	1890	3099	15990	4641	7854	926	2947	5381	1601	2329	4976	702	4287	7031	1834	2391	5830	8851	1839	17350	3571	2544	15070	3490	4953	4732	4097	4582	7401	2893	8171	4661	2070	2219	2076	3021	1023	12980	1149	3405	958	11350	2174	1834	3387	1593	496	757	13630	12850	3022	1606	10670	2177	1664	26020	5901	4126	6150	1572	1271	1447	3090	6459	617	1932	2607	2180	1571	1543	1806	3740	1625	3665	5978	4037	2730	5119	1848	2099	7801	4071	2750	1240	10780	7815	10000	2022	1463	11350	1423	3535	5151	4110	10650	2286	1232	989	4323	1699	1555	1057	4430	1589	3335	2005	1976	470	7202	8840	1448	1179	1594	14020	9800	5876	5653	8382	3179	2098	1717	1831	1458	1848	1728	443	4713	1882	1471	1624	4204	17020	5341	1779	2512	10130	1764	2291	8524	1944	1095	1936	2617	3437	2101	5739
2020-12-04	594	1499	3668	1440	3679	2592	2962	1076	5130	7565	10780	2007	4366	2565	3906	3765	3474	5370	41950	3256	10020	5376	2601	15520	2345	7414	1572	30020	1685	1706	6879	1682	4222	15840	1535	5594	2390	2028	3452	4803	10100	8436	1960	3753	2778	3125	2694	1629	3818	6509	2518	1621	2361	9345	9251	2786	1293	1163	3882	2390	1202	1285	3856	994	19840	9098	1379	1510	6630	2127	3548	2711	1351	8111	1281	12400	3329	2573	11040	8378	693	1685	1568	2272	3754	1719	10220	3784	2272	1279	1707	927	2088	6760	2706	1390	3016	2758	1452	1364	2063	873	2549	7940	3586	2374	1149	2795	1710	4802	2245	4801	1763	3873	2117	4738	1508	3702	5267	1019	4108	800	1863	7233	2561	1981	2422	6626	2590	1634	5868	2087	3953	1945	999	3823	2723	1980	2165	10800	3581	19860	7926	5867	4292	36710	18280	1028	4539	2775	3373	24410	6342	3595	555	970	31930	3053	7816	1204	975	3738	725	846	1992	5808	4198	1368	1894	3127	16030	4673	7966	937	2957	5411	1615	2360	5007	709	4315	7075	1845	2403	5872	8903	1859	17410	3604	2564	15110	3509	4994	4780	4113	4601	7429	2924	8310	4674	2088	2237	2086	3045	1028	13050	1167	3430	976	11400	2194	1855	3400	1602	499	763	13660	12940	3033	1620	10700	2187	1684	26140	5922	4181	6179	1585	1282	1454	3102	6498	620	1949	2635	2192	1590	1555	1814	3764	1646	3682	6016	4052	2769	5162	1863	2119	7829	4100	2771	1251	10810	7852	10110	2030	1474	11380	1437	3573	5272	4141	10680	2300	1244	996	4350	1712	1561	1070	4514	1604	3389	2053	1982	480	7303	8870	1465	1192	1604	14080	9870	5967	5696	8406	3195	2117	1727	1857	1470	1863	1736	447	4724	1909	1475	1634	4232	17080	5395	1787	2531	10150	1786	2319	8620	1951	1099	1945	2646	3451	2113	5755
2020-12-05	597	1506	3693	1451	3690	2625	2986	1085	5193	7626	10830	2011	4464	2585	3936	3777	3498	5425	42170	3278	10070	5396	2612	15570	2386	7433	1586	30130	1700	1715	6937	1702	4238	15890	1552	5666	2399	2053	3467	4832	10130	8482	1971	3773	2801	3188	2702	1647	3847	6535	2539	1633	2369	9386	9281	2799	1300	1171	3906	2408	1206	1295	3872	996	19910	9167	1388	1515	6705	2145	3581	2740	1360	8148	1290	12450	3341	2632	11120	8438	700	1702	1575	2298	3794	1727	10270	3813	2289	1288	1714	928	2106	6835	2742	1401	3027	2775	1463	1375	2100	879	2559	7961	3601	2406	1164	2852	1719	4864	2263	4819	1770	3897	2126	4789	1538	3714	5306	1026	4130	811	1873	7336	2571	2003	2428	6687	2599	1643	5918	2097	3978	1969	1004	3858	2743	1994	2181	10840	3623	19960	7939	5906	4306	36820	18350	1036	4580	2787	3423	24440	6411	3686	560	976	32010	3068	8032	1212	986	3789	730	851	2009	5831	4254	1380	1899	3147	16080	4705	8048	947	2970	5439	1630	2390	5037	719	4343	7110	1855	2416	5913	8950	1880	17470	3635	2583	15150	3527	5023	4820	4124	4618	7453	2956	8421	4687	2106	2253	2096	3054	1034	13100	1185	3455	990	11460	2213	1874	3412	1610	503	768	13690	12980	3042	1634	10720	2197	1705	26230	5942	4224	6206	1599	1291	1459	3115	6533	623	1966	2661	2204	1604	1567	1820	3791	1666	3702	6055	4065	2804	5185	1877	2138	7854	4127	2790	1263	10840	7883	10210	2036	1483	11420	1451	3610	5398	4172	10710	2312	1256	1004	4374	1725	1568	1082	4579	1619	3426	2098	1989	490	7346	8886	1482	1201	1612	14150	9930	6033	5739	8428	3210	2136	1737	1881	1481	1878	1744	452	4739	1936	1479	1640	4260	17130	5448	1795	2550	10150	1814	2342	8678	1958	1103	1953	2674	3464	2124	5770
2020-12-06	600	1513	3718	1462	3704	2658	3017	1094	5263	7700	10870	2014	4564	2605	3965	3795	3522	5483	42420	3299	10100	5415	2625	15610	2421	7448	1600	30250	1709	1724	6998	1721	4255	15930	1570	5735	2410	2075	3480	4857	10160	8524	1981	3795	2825	3250	2706	1664	3875	6561	2560	1647	2378	9429	9308	2812	1307	1178	3929	2426	1209	1304	3888	999	20000	9236	1398	1518	6782	2163	3614	2772	1369	8184	1298	12520	3352	2693	11190	8495	707	1720	1581	2324	3833	1736	10310	3841	2306	1297	1721	929	2125	6912	2777	1412	3043	2793	1473	1381	2139	884	2571	7983	3616	2439	1179	2910	1727	4926	2280	4836	1777	3921	2135	4844	1568	3728	5346	1032	4153	822	1883	7435	2582	2025	2433	6752	2607	1652	5965	2107	4003	1988	1009	3894	2763	2007	2196	10880	3665	20050	7951	5948	4323	36930	18440	1042	4613	2800	3474	24480	6479	3775	566	981	32110	3084	8287	1220	1001	3837	736	856	2026	5854	4310	1392	1903	3168	16120	4736	8134	958	2982	5469	1645	2420	5065	724	4368	7146	1866	2425	5958	9004	1901	17530	3669	2602	15180	3545	5044	4857	4132	4637	7477	2984	8539	4700	2125	2266	2107	3063	1040	13140	1203	3480	1004	11510	2232	1902	3423	1618	507	773	13720	13030	3049	1648	10740	2208	1725	26330	5963	4270	6234	1612	1301	1467	3129	6571	627	1983	2694	2216	1615	1580	1828	3817	1687	3722	6094	4077	2834	5213	1891	2157	7873	4157	2808	1274	10870	7917	10320	2043	1491	11460	1466	3652	5520	4203	10730	2323	1267	1010	4398	1738	1574	1094	4655	1634	3462	2139	1998	498	7392	8901	1498	1211	1620	14220	10000	6121	5781	8454	3226	2155	1748	1900	1491	1894	1750	457	4751	1964	1482	1646	4286	17200	5501	1803	2568	10170	1830	2365	8738	1965	1106	1962	2703	3478	2137	5784
2020-12-07	604	1521	3742	1484	3735	2692	3059	1103	5367	7801	10930	2018	4671	2627	3994	3822	3546	5551	42710	3320	10170	5436	2644	15690	2477	7493	1614	30400	1744	1733	7077	1740	4270	16020	1589	5817	2431	2112	3503	4891	10230	8584	1992	3834	2849	3314	2730	1695	3903	6589	2582	1661	2391	9491	9339	2826	1313	1186	3961	2444	1213	1314	3907	1001	20080	9305	1408	1523	6864	2183	3647	2823	1378	8222	1307	12610	3363	2762	11270	8611	715	1750	1590	2350	3874	1749	10370	3869	2322	1313	1728	933	2144	6998	2813	1431	3067	2810	1484	1403	2180	899	2592	8008	3649	2472	1194	2968	1736	4993	2298	4855	1785	3945	2154	4899	1601	3749	5405	1039	4175	833	1894	7552	2595	2047	2441	6816	2617	1667	6033	2117	4028	2019	1014	3930	2789	2021	2218	10940	3707	20170	7973	6004	4344	37090	18560	1051	4669	2815	3526	24540	6546	3901	574	990	32240	3100	8623	1228	1019	3890	746	861	2046	5876	4367	1405	1907	3200	16160	4767	8268	969	2998	5509	1660	2451	5098	736	4400	7196	1877	2438	6003	9068	1922	17600	3703	2629	15250	3565	5091	4928	4153	4658	7519	3016	8670	4713	2143	2288	2117	3087	1046	13240	1221	3505	1026	11590	2251	1924	3439	1627	511	780	13770	13130	3064	1664	10770	2219	1746	26440	5983	4327	6271	1625	1313	1477	3143	6620	630	2000	2748	2227	1645	1596	1836	3847	1707	3746	6133	4091	2871	5283	1906	2176	7900	4191	2830	1285	10920	7954	10440	2058	1504	11500	1485	3686	5666	4235	10770	2337	1281	1017	4427	1750	1580	1109	4760	1649	3545	2195	2005	509	7515	8937	1518	1222	1629	14300	10070	6228	5824	8494	3243	2174	1758	1944	1507	1909	1759	461	4769	1992	1488	1662	4318	17290	5555	1812	2587	10200	1858	2397	8849	1974	1110	1973	2731	3497	2151	5800
2020-12-08	607	1528	3768	1498	3759	2725	3105	1112	5444	7877	10980	2021	4783	2651	4024	3840	3571	5615	43010	3342	10210	5458	2662	15780	2535	7528	1628	30530	1771	1744	7161	1761	4283	16080	1608	5894	2444	2146	3520	4928	10290	8641	2003	3863	2874	3379	2748	1717	3932	6617	2603	1676	2399	9541	9371	2841	1320	1193	3991	2462	1217	1324	3923	1003	20170	9377	1418	1531	6941	2204	3680	2860	1385	8266	1315	12700	3375	2831	11350	8688	723	1772	1599	2377	3922	1761	10440	3899	2339	1328	1737	937	2164	7077	2850	1443	3082	2828	1494	1413	2223	913	2608	8032	3675	2506	1209	3028	1745	5062	2315	4870	1792	3970	2165	4954	1635	3763	5477	1046	4198	844	1906	7656	2607	2069	2451	6883	2625	1681	6099	2127	4053	2043	1019	3967	2811	2034	2236	10990	3750	20290	7995	6050	4365	37240	18670	1061	4716	2829	3587	24580	6615	4012	581	997	32370	3116	8943	1236	1037	3945	753	866	2065	5897	4425	1417	1911	3223	16210	4800	8392	980	3011	5546	1675	2482	5131	744	4435	7242	1888	2450	6047	9133	1944	17660	3738	2650	15320	3582	5127	4982	4167	4676	7560	3050	8797	4726	2162	2310	2128	3114	1052	13290	1240	3530	1042	11650	2271	1945	3453	1635	514	786	13830	13230	3076	1679	10800	2232	1767	26550	6004	4387	6304	1639	1323	1484	3159	6658	633	2017	2780	2239	1662	1613	1843	3880	1730	3768	6172	4107	2909	5332	1920	2196	7929	4222	2852	1296	10980	7990	10550	2070	1514	11530	1502	3725	5795	4267	10830	2351	1296	1025	4454	1763	1587	1122	4841	1664	3614	2246	2010	518	7606	8964	1535	1232	1638	14380	10140	6351	5867	8518	3258	2194	1768	1986	1521	1925	1767	466	4781	2020	1493	1675	4348	17370	5609	1820	2604	10210	1887	2421	8950	1981	1114	1981	2760	3513	2164	5817
2020-12-09	611	1535	3793	1511	3785	2760	3145	1121	5536	7961	11030	2025	4894	2670	4053	3853	3596	5677	43290	3364	10260	5480	2677	15870	2589	7563	1642	30670	1808	1754	7248	1781	4298	16150	1626	5972	2456	2174	3540	4965	10350	8698	2015	3899	2898	3445	2762	1741	3961	6642	2624	1690	2407	9589	9397	2855	1327	1201	4019	2480	1220	1334	3939	1006	20260	9448	1428	1537	7033	2223	3714	2897	1394	8312	1323	12780	3387	2899	11430	8773	730	1793	1606	2404	3965	1772	10490	3928	2356	1344	1743	939	2184	7155	2887	1455	3093	2846	1505	1434	2266	920	2623	8058	3697	2540	1224	3088	1753	5131	2333	4893	1800	3994	2176	5024	1669	3776	5517	1053	4220	855	1919	7763	2619	2091	2459	6949	2632	1691	6169	2137	4079	2067	1025	4004	2833	2048	2256	11040	3793	20390	8017	6098	4383	37410	18770	1073	4766	2844	3644	24630	6687	4149	587	1005	32500	3132	9278	1244	1055	4000	762	871	2085	5919	4484	1429	1915	3260	16250	4832	8525	991	3025	5580	1690	2513	5170	757	4462	7288	1899	2462	6093	9190	1965	17730	3773	2670	15380	3600	5169	5041	4187	4698	7595	3083	8937	4739	2181	2329	2138	3139	1058	13360	1259	3556	1061	11710	2290	1963	3463	1644	516	793	13890	13320	3086	1695	10840	2245	1788	26660	6025	4448	6338	1653	1333	1489	3179	6709	636	2034	2814	2251	1682	1627	1850	3913	1752	3791	6213	4120	2937	5380	1935	2216	7954	4254	2870	1308	11020	8027	10670	2078	1527	11590	1518	3767	5952	4300	10860	2364	1307	1031	4482	1777	1593	1136	4922	1679	3679	2296	2017	529	7711	8986	1549	1240	1645	14450	10220	6446	5911	8548	3272	2213	1779	2018	1534	1941	1773	471	4797	2049	1497	1686	4378	17430	5664	1827	2622	10230	1912	2445	9052	1988	1118	1990	2790	3531	2176	5831

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-02