COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-05

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	10-30	10-21	10-27	11-08	10-29	--	--	10-30	--	11-01	10-13	10-04	--	10-30	10-27	10-24	10-30	11-04	11-03	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-16	10-29	--	10-27	--	10-15	11-08	--	10-12	10-27	10-27	--	11-02	--	10-04	09-27	10-26	10-29	11-01	10-05	10-27	--	10-25	--	10-30	10-13	11-05	10-31	10-29	10-27	10-30	10-19	10-28	10-30	10-11	10-16	10-30	10-31	11-02	10-30	10-03	11-01	10-31	10-18	--	11-05	11-03	11-08	11-01	10-27	11-02	10-14	10-31	--	11-02	10-30	09-30	11-01	10-30	11-03	11-03	10-27	10-30	11-02	11-03	11-08	10-20	10-30	11-05	--	--	11-03	10-11	09-27	10-28	11-02	--	11-08	10-11	10-27	10-11	11-09	11-03	--	10-28	--	10-27	09-27	10-25	10-17	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	10-27	11-03	--	10-30	--	11-02	--	10-27	10-30	10-31	11-02	11-07	10-31	10-11	--	10-27	10-30	10-13	10-30	10-27	10-28	--	10-27	09-29	10-27	10-07	09-27	11-01	11-08	--	10-31	11-04	09-28	11-08	--	--	10-27	09-22	10-26	--	10-31	11-15	--	11-08	10-28	11-04	10-31	--	10-21	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-01	--	10-31	10-14	10-25	11-02	10-27	11-04	11-13	11-01	11-03	11-01	11-01	10-29	10-31	11-09	09-30	11-01	10-31	10-25	11-03	10-11	--	11-02	11-02	10-13	10-25	--	11-03	10-26	11-01	10-13	10-13	10-31	10-18	--	10-12	--	10-17	11-01	--	10-09	10-27	10-28	11-02	10-19	10-31	10-30	11-04	09-30	11-03	11-05	09-29	10-31	11-02	11-01	10-28	11-05	10-29	10-26	10-30	11-01	10-30	10-30	11-09	11-02	10-25	10-30	10-13	11-03	10-25	10-30	11-01	--	10-12	10-30	11-03	10-06	10-25	10-30	10-30	10-18	10-12	10-30	10-25	10-29	10-30	11-01	--	--	11-01	10-18	10-29	10-29	10-27	10-28	10-05	11-01	11-03	11-11	11-03	11-24	--	10-25	11-24	--	10-13	--	10-28	10-31	10-29	11-02	--	10-30	10-20	10-26	--	10-28	11-08	11-03	10-26	10-30	10-27	10-05	10-31	10-26	10-13	10-26	10-21	11-07	11-02	11-02	10-04	--	--	11-02	10-30	11-08	10-29	10-27	10-11	10-29	10-06
Peak daily increment	8	28	88	48	63			20		96	191	28		34	80	72	37	90	612	62	163	98	58	234	49	138		446		50	97		71	322	26		38		57	70	160	142	48	47	52		40		50	132	32	26	35	132	144	53	25	14	62	32	23	19	68	21	291	138	20	30		27	51	47	28	168	25	249	57		248	117	16	35	27	36	101	33	226	75	28	17	32	16	25			25	55	76	28	18		15	41	131	71	37	23		31		35	71	34	55	43			66		16	74		40		47		43	95	52	22	75	28	59		17	53	35	28	30	295		365	152	74	85	542	252	13		60	56	529	87			14	612	62		27	20		16	10	30	90		25	34	55	392	84		20	51	163	25	50	107	19	87	118	34	57	90	131	27	614	67	39	263	49	64		81	84	101	37		92	43	34	41	42	18	197		64		199	42		66	18	8	16	237	231	86	27	184	36	30	438	111	73	94	23	18	26	65	140	12	27	43	83	38	32	29	70	34	76	88	74		61	34	30	118	83	57	19	183	125	187	31	33	158	25			66	177	46	18	15	90	21	19	20	103	23	70		48	11		138		19	25	268	160		77	135	58		22	40	18	29	28	8	91	34	22	24	62	320	84	32	38	137			134	37	15	31	48	65	41	130
Days since peak	36	45	39	27	37			36		34	53	62		36	39	42	36	31	32	33	48	55	39	54	19	37		39		51	27		54	39	39		33		62	69	40	37	34	61	39		41		36	53	30	35	37	39	36	47	38	36	55	50	36	35	33	36	63	34	35	48		30	32	27	34	39	33	52	35		33	36	66	34	36	32	32	39	36	33	32	27	46	36	30			32	55	69	38	33		27	55	39	55	26	32		38		39	69	41	49	32			40		39	32		36		33		39	36	35	33	28	35	55		39	36	53	36	39	38		39	67	39	59	69	34	27		35	31	68	27			39	74	40		35	20		27	38	31	35		45	33	69	70	34		35	52	41	33	39	31	22	34	32	34	34	37	35	26	66	34	35	41	32	55		33	33	53	41		32	40	34	53	53	35	48		54		49	34		57	39	38	33	47	35	36	31	66	32	30	67	35	33	34	38	30	37	40	36	34	36	36	26	33	41	36	53	32	41	36	34		54	36	32	60	41	36	36	48	54	36	41	37	36	34			34	48	37	37	39	38	61	34	32	24	32	11		41	11		53		38	35	37	33		36	46	40		38	27	32	40	36	39	61	35	40	53	40	45	28	33	33	62			33	36	27	37	39	55	37	60
Last total	592	1502	3678	1462	3712	2683	3032	1080	5230	7702	10822	2042	4517	2584	3921	3830	3508	5490	42379	3323	10036	5424	2629	15568	2340	7462	1637	30137	1749	1727	6975	1739	4237	15909	1544	5708	2413	2077	3459	4832	10160	8461	1978	3817	2794	3256	2714	1641	3902	6537	2617	1645	2400	9384	9326	2825	1304	1193	3923	2418	1204	1295	3870	1001	19983	9166	1380	1540	6743	2169	3552	2788	1357	8169	1284	12504	3371	2645	11126	8479	701	1703	1587	2285	3775	1716	10296	3840	2309	1290	1723	936	2102	6937	2785	1403	3033	2768	1478	1388	2130	891	2543	7960	3597	2406	1151	2907	1743	4918	2280	4841	1769	3914	2150	4871	1502	3725	5410	1040	4142	872	1893	7496	2573	2014	2443	6731	2628	1667	5917	2104	3954	2012	996	3885	2765	1983	2191	10902	3633	19948	7955	5959	4302	36809	18452	1021	4626	2805	3436	24483	6451	3672	578	977	32046	3071	7945	1236	983	3799	736	857	1986	5853	4288	1372	1944	3130	16053	4700	8167	953	2979	5424	1634	2414	5061	716	4354	7070	1848	2435	6003	8943	1871	17465	3632	2618	15165	3562	5013	4851	4130	4685	7476	2969	8452	4726	2100	2262	2101	3087	1026	13124	1204	3446	1004	11457	2203	1910	3412	1625	511	767	13701	13025	3057	1630	10709	2197	1719	26209	5957	4234	6225	1603	1312	1483	3143	6558	623	1954	2661	2194	1614	1575	1859	3801	1661	3712	6074	4098	2864	5278	1909	2159	7862	4147	2792	1256	10863	7891	10145	2042	1496	11477	1469	3646	5343	4177	10696	2309	1275	1011	4389	1739	1565	1079	4624	1608	3480	2149	1980	472	7498	8912	1519	1201	1618	14149	9927	6193	5772	8450	3257	2183	1743	1875	1477	1895	1761	460	4747	1944	1485	1650	4267	17132	5429	1790	2549	10193	1814	2371	8740	1962	1107	1950	2691	3467	2121	5773
Last daily increment	1	5	14	12	17	48	42	5	85	79	37	11	117	13	30	25	23	58	261	30	29	33	10	27	20	29	26	86	33	6	67	25	15	64	14	72	10	35	19	27	40	32	14	37	17	68	10	25	45	23	44	11	12	35	39	19	6	12	21	19	1	5	14	4	86	56	4	11	71	26	30	46	7	37	6	73	17	55	62	67	4	14	5	19	19	8	54	34	23	6	7	3	14	107	47	9	11	11	13	10	42	9	4	16	19	29	5	59	21	57	26	19	6	28	14	80	17	15	56	7	20	25	11	142	6	24	11	73	23	18	44	7	13	20	4	54	23	6	18	72	52	80	14	49	19	96	97	7	47	17	54	39	82	91	10	5	98	18	198	16	9	50	8	5	8	32	70	11	25	15	26	21	118	17	9	14	9	28	38	7	33	18	9	19	46	36	18	50	11	10	35	26	26	50	21	33	34	17	122	20	10	22	13	21	1	41	18	22	15	47	14	21	7	9	4	2	28	74	12	11	5	10	25	59	25	48	29	15	9	9	19	43	0	13	21	6	11	4	9	29	11	18	41	23	43	58	28	23	20	28	23	11	30	28	67	12	19	42	19	47	109	25	29	9	10	5	26	15	3	10	58	12	61	58	3	6	106	28	15	14	7	55	56	118	40	22	36	34	10	17	7	17	11	1	11	13	9	11	22	50	32	5	16	24	22	29	74	8	1	8	33	9	10	21
Last week	19	60	182	90	144	298	282	66	578	611	296	62	742	139	274	196	199	590	1912	186	341	175	119	418	251	221	172	875	182	96	435	193	155	503	121	566	114	233	107	198	400	363	86	234	152	499	83	148	290	198	214	79	115	334	306	119	59	82	176	153	22	62	111	36	656	427	63	70	580	174	185	293	67	333	43	594	137	399	550	517	59	150	66	195	228	53	454	238	138	69	62	27	140	686	293	103	124	100	81	116	306	65	75	150	134	197	75	410	128	512	140	137	50	171	104	496	166	133	479	63	171	180	148	879	81	141	81	503	122	108	371	75	121	196	23	281	166	98	135	465	359	686	131	390	129	972	785	41	356	148	360	373	562	619	77	43	837	113	1444	96	71	337	51	45	110	229	432	64	98	183	300	227	848	67	93	207	119	274	269	70	212	259	68	111	386	434	159	444	182	162	328	189	231	370	113	280	266	236	793	172	81	151	75	157	41	408	142	138	148	425	105	215	99	68	30	34	294	595	165	91	158	76	147	656	178	307	281	100	90	88	146	331	20	104	249	75	145	90	99	173	166	143	279	155	323	385	141	169	213	215	174	92	309	260	731	58	94	400	112	327	821	219	232	100	127	51	182	96	48	75	518	103	403	341	37	44	710	181	187	70	82	518	456	779	378	213	160	172	90	172	90	125	85	50	122	161	46	89	210	539	332	49	138	164	200	225	571	71	31	65	234	102	76	113
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																			29														75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																			1														6	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-06 to 2020-12-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-05	592	1502	3678	1462	3712	2683	3032	1080	5230	7702	10822	2042	4517	2584	3921	3830	3508	5490	42379	3323	10036	5424	2629	15568	2340	7462	1637	30137	1749	1727	6975	1739	4237	15909	1544	5708	2413	2077	3459	4832	10160	8461	1978	3817	2794	3256	2714	1641	3902	6537	2617	1645	2400	9384	9326	2825	1304	1193	3923	2418	1204	1295	3870	1001	19983	9166	1380	1540	6743	2169	3552	2788	1357	8169	1284	12504	3371	2645	11126	8479	701	1703	1587	2285	3775	1716	10296	3840	2309	1290	1723	936	2102	6937	2785	1403	3033	2768	1478	1388	2130	891	2543	7960	3597	2406	1151	2907	1743	4918	2280	4841	1769	3914	2150	4871	1502	3725	5410	1040	4142	872	1893	7496	2573	2014	2443	6731	2628	1667	5917	2104	3954	2012	996	3885	2765	1983	2191	10902	3633	19948	7955	5959	4302	36809	18452	1021	4626	2805	3436	24483	6451	3672	578	977	32046	3071	7945	1236	983	3799	736	857	1986	5853	4288	1372	1944	3130	16053	4700	8167	953	2979	5424	1634	2414	5061	716	4354	7070	1848	2435	6003	8943	1871	17465	3632	2618	15165	3562	5013	4851	4130	4685	7476	2969	8452	4726	2100	2262	2101	3087	1026	13124	1204	3446	1004	11457	2203	1910	3412	1625	511	767	13701	13025	3057	1630	10709	2197	1719	26209	5957	4234	6225	1603	1312	1483	3143	6558	623	1954	2661	2194	1614	1575	1859	3801	1661	3712	6074	4098	2864	5278	1909	2159	7862	4147	2792	1256	10863	7891	10145	2042	1496	11477	1469	3646	5343	4177	10696	2309	1275	1011	4389	1739	1565	1079	4624	1608	3480	2149	1980	472	7498	8912	1519	1201	1618	14149	9927	6193	5772	8450	3257	2183	1743	1875	1477	1895	1761	460	4747	1944	1485	1650	4267	17132	5429	1790	2549	10193	1814	2371	8740	1962	1107	1950	2691	3467	2121	5773
2020-12-06	593	1512	3692	1474	3755	2724	3036	1090	5300	7788	10870	2055	4574	2595	3959	3856	3536	5515	42750	3351	10110	5463	2647	15620	2390	7501	1637	30330	1750	1740	7048	1779	4262	16060	1563	5709	2431	2085	3463	4866	10260	8516	1991	3841	2812	3340	2728	1665	3939	6568	2648	1659	2417	9405	9367	2853	1313	1204	3952	2439	1210	1299	3886	1007	20090	9254	1390	1548	6772	2193	3584	2810	1369	8219	1293	12600	3371	2719	11210	8545	709	1725	1599	2312	3795	1728	10350	3875	2329	1301	1733	937	2121	7119	2811	1417	3033	2785	1490	1404	2174	902	2548	8014	3632	2439	1164	2926	1758	4933	2301	4859	1778	3941	2150	4871	1523	3734	5410	1049	4168	900	1901	7785	2586	2036	2470	6804	2647	1681	5977	2116	3978	2020	1001	3925	2789	1998	2211	10980	3633	20070	7980	6013	4323	36890	18560	1029	4663	2826	3487	24520	6500	3804	588	984	32310	3164	8171	1250	987	3872	743	863	2004	5888	4408	1384	1957	3169	16090	4751	8225	965	2992	5474	1651	2451	5105	723	4366	7086	1860	2453	6059	9032	1894	17530	3662	2642	15250	3589	5048	4851	4155	4727	7476	2982	8563	4752	2117	2280	2120	3110	1032	13190	1230	3459	1004	11560	2216	1946	3423	1635	515	773	13710	13120	3065	1636	10710	2214	1742	26370	5970	4290	6259	1618	1325	1495	3165	6608	625	1970	2694	2205	1632	1589	1872	3830	1684	3737	6092	4120	2864	5278	1929	2182	7868	4183	2805	1269	10900	7927	10210	2065	1509	11490	1486	3718	5429	4224	10720	2339	1290	1019	4408	1743	1572	1092	4714	1623	3487	2149	1989	480	7536	8942	1519	1212	1629	14230	10060	6260	5810	8472	3280	2184	1755	1901	1490	1913	1782	460	4754	1971	1492	1661	4298	17290	5475	1799	2570	10210	1835	2400	8797	1973	1111	1962	2725	3488	2135	5786
2020-12-07	595	1521	3706	1486	3777	2766	3056	1099	5430	7873	10920	2067	4716	2605	3997	3881	3563	5616	43090	3378	10170	5500	2663	15700	2455	7546	1647	30490	1775	1752	7119	1817	4288	16160	1581	5818	2448	2097	3472	4899	10370	8587	2004	3877	2829	3419	2742	1688	3974	6598	2677	1674	2433	9457	9407	2880	1321	1214	3980	2460	1215	1303	3900	1013	20190	9336	1401	1556	6872	2215	3617	2872	1381	8268	1301	12710	3379	2793	11300	8610	717	1747	1610	2340	3815	1739	10400	3907	2348	1312	1742	940	2139	7295	2860	1431	3064	2802	1500	1420	2219	912	2553	8041	3666	2472	1178	3000	1772	5008	2322	4881	1787	3966	2165	4942	1565	3765	5470	1058	4193	926	1909	8030	2599	2058	2490	6876	2665	1694	6037	2127	3999	2052	1006	3963	2813	2013	2231	11060	3668	20180	8005	6065	4344	37000	18710	1038	4721	2847	3537	24580	6610	3926	597	991	32490	3208	8442	1263	991	3943	750	869	2023	5921	4525	1395	1969	3206	16140	4793	8380	977	3009	5523	1667	2487	5149	730	4379	7106	1872	2471	6115	9119	1917	17590	3691	2665	15310	3615	5084	4893	4171	4769	7500	3023	8706	4777	2134	2297	2137	3133	1038	13290	1257	3471	1022	11680	2229	1982	3434	1645	520	778	13740	13190	3074	1642	10730	2231	1764	26500	5984	4345	6305	1633	1337	1507	3186	6671	627	1986	2728	2216	1649	1602	1885	3859	1708	3759	6111	4141	2906	5348	1948	2204	7906	4218	2819	1282	10940	7963	10270	2084	1522	11550	1503	3787	5636	4263	10770	2357	1304	1027	4429	1762	1579	1105	4802	1638	3557	2206	1998	489	7650	8976	1549	1222	1640	14330	10160	6430	5848	8517	3302	2200	1767	1928	1503	1931	1801	469	4776	1998	1499	1672	4328	17410	5519	1807	2592	10240	1871	2429	8853	1984	1115	1973	2757	3512	2149	5799
2020-12-08	596	1531	3719	1498	3802	2808	3103	1109	5537	7957	10970	2079	4852	2616	4034	3907	3591	5710	43460	3406	10220	5536	2679	15760	2507	7582	1655	30620	1797	1764	7191	1855	4313	16220	1599	5901	2464	2110	3477	4931	10460	8652	2017	3911	2847	3502	2756	1711	4010	6627	2707	1688	2449	9505	9447	2905	1329	1225	4009	2481	1221	1307	3914	1019	20290	9420	1411	1564	6964	2238	3649	2910	1394	8317	1309	12810	3393	2868	11390	8675	725	1769	1621	2367	3833	1751	10460	3940	2367	1323	1751	945	2158	7475	2893	1445	3080	2819	1512	1435	2263	923	2557	8070	3691	2505	1191	3067	1786	5093	2342	4897	1796	3991	2178	5000	1594	3785	5522	1066	4218	954	1918	8280	2612	2079	2511	6947	2682	1707	6097	2138	4022	2071	1011	4001	2836	2027	2251	11130	3705	20300	8019	6117	4365	37120	18850	1046	4760	2868	3587	24620	6700	4038	605	998	32690	3242	8688	1276	996	4015	757	875	2041	5955	4642	1407	1982	3232	16180	4829	8512	988	3023	5570	1684	2523	5193	737	4393	7127	1884	2489	6170	9206	1940	17660	3720	2689	15370	3641	5119	4911	4190	4810	7525	3059	8823	4803	2151	2315	2154	3156	1043	13350	1283	3485	1044	11760	2242	2018	3445	1654	524	783	13780	13300	3083	1647	10740	2248	1787	26610	5998	4400	6355	1647	1350	1519	3207	6727	628	2002	2761	2227	1666	1616	1898	3887	1731	3778	6130	4162	2953	5408	1968	2226	7942	4256	2833	1294	10970	7999	10330	2103	1535	11600	1520	3857	5734	4299	10810	2371	1318	1035	4450	1778	1587	1118	4889	1653	3616	2257	2007	497	7759	8996	1561	1232	1651	14400	10250	6567	5887	8546	3325	2218	1780	1955	1516	1948	1819	478	4790	2026	1506	1683	4359	17510	5563	1814	2612	10270	1912	2459	8909	1995	1119	1985	2790	3527	2163	5810
2020-12-09	597	1540	3733	1509	3833	2849	3118	1118	5667	8040	11010	2090	4977	2627	4071	3932	3618	5811	43800	3432	10270	5571	2694	15840	2563	7611	1669	30770	1818	1775	7261	1891	4339	16310	1618	5983	2480	2124	3488	4964	10560	8703	2030	3949	2865	3583	2770	1734	4044	6656	2736	1702	2465	9576	9487	2930	1337	1235	4037	2501	1226	1311	3928	1025	20390	9503	1421	1572	7059	2261	3681	2947	1406	8366	1318	12880	3393	2945	11470	8740	734	1791	1631	2394	3850	1762	10510	3972	2386	1335	1760	946	2176	7654	2936	1459	3092	2836	1522	1451	2308	933	2562	8089	3704	2537	1205	3131	1800	5173	2363	4920	1805	4016	2199	5060	1620	3812	5574	1075	4244	981	1926	8541	2625	2101	2528	7018	2700	1719	6156	2150	4043	2087	1016	4038	2860	2042	2271	11210	3747	20420	8035	6168	4386	37250	18960	1054	4812	2888	3636	24670	6780	4172	614	1004	32860	3284	8917	1288	1001	4086	764	881	2059	5988	4760	1418	1993	3267	16220	4856	8658	1000	3038	5617	1700	2559	5236	744	4408	7148	1896	2507	6225	9285	1963	17720	3748	2713	15420	3667	5154	4937	4207	4851	7552	3098	8959	4828	2169	2332	2170	3178	1049	13410	1309	3498	1063	11840	2254	2055	3456	1664	528	789	13810	13400	3092	1653	10760	2264	1808	26720	6012	4455	6408	1662	1362	1531	3228	6778	630	2018	2794	2238	1683	1629	1910	3915	1754	3789	6149	4183	2994	5458	1987	2248	7967	4285	2847	1307	11010	8035	10380	2120	1548	11670	1537	3926	5950	4336	10840	2391	1332	1042	4470	1788	1594	1131	4975	1668	3685	2304	2017	505	7866	9016	1580	1243	1662	14470	10330	6711	5925	8579	3347	2232	1791	1982	1530	1966	1836	483	4815	2053	1513	1694	4389	17580	5606	1821	2633	10280	1948	2489	8963	2005	1122	1996	2822	3540	2176	5822
2020-12-10	598	1550	3746	1521	3854	2892	3132	1128	5757	8124	11060	2102	5117	2638	4109	3957	3645	5897	44080	3459	10310	5607	2709	15890	2597	7636	1690	30890	1831	1787	7333	1927	4364	16400	1636	6056	2496	2138	3495	4997	10600	8755	2043	3987	2883	3665	2784	1757	4079	6685	2764	1716	2481	9608	9527	2955	1345	1245	4066	2522	1232	1314	3942	1030	20490	9586	1431	1579	7135	2283	3713	2997	1418	8416	1327	12970	3406	3023	11560	8804	742	1813	1642	2421	3867	1774	10560	4003	2405	1346	1769	946	2194	7838	2961	1473	3109	2853	1533	1466	2354	943	2566	8105	3719	2570	1219	3190	1814	5257	2384	4934	1814	4041	2218	5114	1637	3834	5624	1083	4269	1009	1935	8725	2638	2122	2541	7088	2718	1731	6215	2161	4065	2111	1021	4075	2883	2057	2291	11290	3771	20530	8057	6219	4406	37360	19090	1062	4851	2909	3685	24720	6865	4305	622	1011	33040	3307	9121	1301	1006	4159	771	886	2078	6021	4881	1429	2005	3295	16260	4885	8735	1011	3052	5664	1717	2595	5280	752	4422	7170	1907	2524	6279	9349	1986	17780	3776	2737	15470	3692	5189	4953	4224	4892	7576	3131	9083	4853	2186	2350	2186	3200	1055	13460	1336	3511	1081	11910	2266	2092	3467	1673	532	794	13860	13450	3102	1658	10780	2281	1830	26830	6026	4510	6443	1677	1374	1542	3248	6830	632	2034	2828	2249	1701	1643	1923	3944	1778	3800	6168	4204	3057	5511	2006	2270	7995	4315	2861	1319	11050	8071	10430	2138	1561	11720	1554	3997	6104	4370	10860	2408	1346	1050	4491	1805	1601	1144	5062	1684	3740	2351	2026	514	7970	9045	1602	1253	1673	14540	10400	6848	5963	8609	3369	2239	1803	2009	1543	1983	1854	490	4834	2080	1519	1705	4419	17670	5650	1829	2654	10310	1975	2518	9017	2016	1126	2007	2854	3555	2190	5834
2020-12-11	600	1559	3759	1533	3878	2935	3157	1137	5857	8208	11110	2113	5250	2649	4146	3982	3672	5997	44330	3486	10370	5642	2724	15940	2625	7661	1699	31010	1851	1799	7404	1964	4390	16460	1655	6153	2512	2152	3496	5030	10660	8800	2055	4018	2901	3750	2798	1780	4113	6715	2792	1731	2497	9631	9566	2980	1353	1255	4094	2543	1237	1318	3955	1036	20590	9670	1442	1587	7235	2306	3746	3035	1430	8465	1335	13040	3415	3103	11650	8869	750	1835	1653	2448	3884	1786	10620	4035	2424	1357	1778	946	2213	8027	3010	1487	3117	2870	1544	1482	2401	954	2571	8122	3728	2602	1233	3269	1828	5342	2404	4957	1823	4066	2228	5196	1660	3851	5685	1091	4295	1038	1943	8985	2651	2143	2563	7159	2735	1744	6275	2172	4087	2142	1026	4113	2906	2073	2310	11360	3788	20650	8068	6270	4427	37450	19180	1071	4907	2929	3735	24770	6942	4438	631	1018	33210	3338	9346	1314	1011	4234	778	892	2097	6055	5005	1441	2016	3319	16300	4910	8874	1022	3061	5712	1734	2631	5324	759	4437	7191	1919	2542	6334	9387	2009	17850	3804	2761	15520	3718	5224	4983	4237	4933	7593	3176	9232	4878	2204	2367	2203	3223	1061	13520	1363	3525	1101	11980	2278	2131	3478	1683	536	800	13880	13500	3111	1663	10790	2297	1852	26910	6041	4566	6477	1691	1386	1554	3269	6870	634	2050	2862	2261	1718	1657	1935	3972	1802	3814	6187	4225	3110	5568	2025	2293	8022	4347	2876	1332	11080	8108	10490	2155	1574	11760	1571	4068	6220	4404	10890	2418	1360	1058	4512	1818	1608	1157	5150	1699	3805	2418	2035	522	8093	9073	1631	1263	1684	14600	10480	7034	6001	8631	3392	2255	1815	2036	1556	2000	1871	500	4852	2108	1526	1716	4449	17740	5694	1836	2675	10330	2002	2549	9071	2027	1129	2018	2886	3571	2203	5846
2020-12-12	601	1569	3772	1544	3900	2979	3192	1147	5927	8292	11160	2125	5361	2660	4184	4008	3699	6052	44580	3513	10400	5678	2739	15980	2646	7692	1723	31110	1881	1810	7476	2000	4416	16530	1674	6215	2528	2167	3514	5063	10690	8840	2068	4049	2919	3837	2812	1803	4148	6744	2821	1745	2513	9663	9606	3004	1361	1265	4123	2563	1243	1322	3969	1042	20690	9754	1452	1595	7296	2328	3778	3074	1442	8515	1344	13110	3436	3185	11740	8934	759	1857	1664	2476	3901	1797	10670	4067	2442	1369	1787	949	2231	8220	3060	1502	3132	2888	1555	1497	2449	964	2576	8144	3745	2635	1247	3326	1842	5398	2425	4974	1832	4091	2242	5253	1678	3862	5719	1100	4321	1068	1952	9082	2665	2165	2572	7231	2753	1756	6335	2184	4109	2162	1031	4150	2930	2088	2330	11440	3838	20770	8081	6322	4448	37550	19290	1079	4934	2950	3785	24810	7014	4547	639	1025	33290	3355	9554	1326	1016	4310	785	898	2116	6088	5132	1452	2028	3336	16340	4943	8988	1034	3076	5759	1750	2667	5368	767	4452	7213	1931	2559	6389	9429	2032	17910	3832	2786	15560	3744	5259	5030	4254	4975	7622	3195	9340	4903	2221	2384	2219	3245	1067	13570	1391	3538	1117	12020	2291	2170	3489	1692	541	805	13910	13590	3121	1669	10790	2314	1875	26980	6055	4622	6511	1706	1398	1566	3290	6911	637	2066	2896	2272	1735	1670	1948	4000	1826	3841	6207	4247	3147	5618	2044	2315	8048	4380	2890	1345	11120	8144	10540	2173	1587	11810	1588	4142	6331	4432	10920	2432	1374	1066	4533	1831	1616	1170	5239	1714	3854	2466	2045	530	8180	9098	1648	1273	1696	14660	10540	7150	6039	8654	3414	2283	1827	2063	1569	2018	1889	503	4864	2136	1533	1727	4480	17790	5737	1843	2696	10350	2023	2579	9126	2037	1133	2030	2918	3582	2217	5858

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-06 to 2020-12-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-05	592	1502	3678	1462	3712	2683	3032	1080	5230	7702	10822	2042	4517	2584	3921	3830	3508	5490	42379	3323	10036	5424	2629	15568	2340	7462	1637	30137	1749	1727	6975	1739	4237	15909	1544	5708	2413	2077	3459	4832	10160	8461	1978	3817	2794	3256	2714	1641	3902	6537	2617	1645	2400	9384	9326	2825	1304	1193	3923	2418	1204	1295	3870	1001	19983	9166	1380	1540	6743	2169	3552	2788	1357	8169	1284	12504	3371	2645	11126	8479	701	1703	1587	2285	3775	1716	10296	3840	2309	1290	1723	936	2102	6937	2785	1403	3033	2768	1478	1388	2130	891	2543	7960	3597	2406	1151	2907	1743	4918	2280	4841	1769	3914	2150	4871	1502	3725	5410	1040	4142	872	1893	7496	2573	2014	2443	6731	2628	1667	5917	2104	3954	2012	996	3885	2765	1983	2191	10902	3633	19948	7955	5959	4302	36809	18452	1021	4626	2805	3436	24483	6451	3672	578	977	32046	3071	7945	1236	983	3799	736	857	1986	5853	4288	1372	1944	3130	16053	4700	8167	953	2979	5424	1634	2414	5061	716	4354	7070	1848	2435	6003	8943	1871	17465	3632	2618	15165	3562	5013	4851	4130	4685	7476	2969	8452	4726	2100	2262	2101	3087	1026	13124	1204	3446	1004	11457	2203	1910	3412	1625	511	767	13701	13025	3057	1630	10709	2197	1719	26209	5957	4234	6225	1603	1312	1483	3143	6558	623	1954	2661	2194	1614	1575	1859	3801	1661	3712	6074	4098	2864	5278	1909	2159	7862	4147	2792	1256	10863	7891	10145	2042	1496	11477	1469	3646	5343	4177	10696	2309	1275	1011	4389	1739	1565	1079	4624	1608	3480	2149	1980	472	7498	8912	1519	1201	1618	14149	9927	6193	5772	8450	3257	2183	1743	1875	1477	1895	1761	460	4747	1944	1485	1650	4267	17132	5429	1790	2549	10193	1814	2371	8740	1962	1107	1950	2691	3467	2121	5773
2020-12-06	594	1509	3696	1473	3731	2730	3071	1088	5311	7788	10860	2052	4627	2600	3952	3856	3534	5542	42630	3350	10070	5451	2644	15600	2366	7484	1665	30250	1765	1739	7036	1767	4254	15960	1560	5780	2426	2103	3469	4860	10200	8495	1990	3850	2815	3330	2723	1657	3944	6560	2654	1657	2413	9418	9362	2843	1312	1205	3946	2439	1206	1303	3881	1005	20080	9225	1388	1549	6815	2193	3578	2827	1367	8209	1289	12560	3386	2705	11190	8540	709	1721	1595	2308	3799	1723	10350	3872	2329	1295	1731	937	2120	7055	2831	1414	3044	2782	1490	1399	2175	899	2549	7981	3612	2437	1161	2965	1760	4981	2301	4861	1775	3938	2160	4944	1524	3738	5462	1048	4165	900	1906	7625	2582	2037	2453	6806	2643	1679	5967	2115	3969	2037	999	3928	2789	1995	2209	10970	3678	20030	7965	6005	4318	36870	18530	1027	4668	2822	3489	24520	6518	3755	587	981	32160	3093	8152	1249	992	3848	742	863	1999	5884	4353	1382	1960	3148	16090	4726	8282	964	2991	5447	1649	2451	5096	721	4379	7096	1857	2449	6063	8995	1892	17520	3655	2640	15190	3590	5036	4888	4139	4722	7503	2997	8575	4746	2113	2278	2112	3105	1029	13170	1228	3466	1016	11510	2217	1942	3420	1636	516	771	13720	13090	3071	1640	10720	2206	1742	26290	5977	4281	6258	1617	1326	1494	3162	6596	626	1969	2688	2203	1627	1588	1873	3826	1680	3730	6105	4118	2907	5317	1930	2182	7879	4173	2809	1267	10900	7921	10230	2050	1507	11510	1486	3695	5454	4208	10710	2318	1290	1016	4411	1751	1570	1089	4691	1621	3519	2194	1984	477	7582	8925	1541	1210	1627	14190	10000	6304	5820	8476	3282	2209	1755	1888	1488	1913	1772	465	4760	1970	1491	1658	4295	17190	5468	1795	2566	10210	1833	2395	8805	1970	1112	1958	2724	3480	2130	5787
2020-12-07	596	1517	3719	1488	3758	2771	3107	1097	5425	7891	10910	2058	4744	2619	3985	3888	3560	5628	42920	3370	10130	5476	2662	15660	2420	7524	1687	30390	1793	1750	7103	1792	4272	16040	1579	5864	2448	2134	3486	4891	10270	8554	2000	3891	2837	3391	2731	1685	3976	6585	2679	1669	2425	9476	9396	2858	1319	1215	3977	2460	1210	1311	3891	1009	20180	9286	1396	1557	6900	2214	3607	2874	1378	8255	1297	12670	3402	2774	11270	8630	717	1743	1605	2334	3827	1737	10400	3900	2345	1308	1738	941	2137	7157	2874	1436	3073	2798	1500	1420	2218	909	2565	8007	3637	2467	1174	3026	1772	5052	2319	4880	1781	3958	2170	5009	1556	3763	5524	1056	4187	923	1922	7770	2595	2059	2464	6874	2654	1693	6024	2125	3989	2067	1002	3963	2813	2008	2232	11030	3726	20140	7986	6065	4341	37010	18690	1034	4722	2839	3537	24580	6614	3874	596	989	32280	3109	8447	1258	1004	3899	750	869	2017	5912	4421	1394	1966	3184	16130	4762	8430	973	3008	5481	1665	2485	5128	732	4409	7136	1866	2461	6114	9067	1914	17590	3686	2661	15240	3613	5076	4954	4151	4759	7538	3033	8710	4759	2127	2303	2123	3128	1034	13260	1249	3487	1036	11610	2231	1973	3435	1645	521	776	13760	13170	3094	1652	10740	2216	1761	26400	5999	4330	6299	1630	1337	1508	3178	6641	629	1984	2738	2214	1651	1600	1885	3854	1701	3757	6149	4134	2946	5389	1946	2203	7914	4207	2833	1279	10940	7959	10340	2061	1522	11570	1505	3743	5584	4243	10750	2333	1304	1024	4440	1766	1577	1101	4788	1635	3592	2246	1993	487	7700	8951	1564	1220	1638	14290	10080	6436	5864	8512	3301	2233	1765	1917	1500	1929	1784	472	4781	1997	1497	1672	4325	17290	5508	1802	2585	10250	1866	2431	8894	1981	1116	1969	2754	3498	2142	5802
2020-12-08	599	1525	3740	1501	3780	2813	3164	1106	5513	7975	10950	2063	4862	2640	4017	3913	3587	5708	43200	3389	10180	5500	2679	15730	2470	7549	1708	30510	1818	1761	7169	1816	4290	16080	1599	5941	2461	2164	3500	4921	10320	8607	2010	3927	2859	3452	2740	1705	4008	6611	2703	1681	2435	9524	9431	2873	1326	1224	4007	2480	1213	1319	3901	1012	20280	9343	1405	1567	6983	2235	3635	2910	1388	8296	1303	12770	3420	2841	11340	8706	725	1763	1615	2359	3860	1746	10460	3925	2362	1321	1747	944	2155	7256	2914	1451	3092	2814	1511	1435	2261	920	2577	8028	3657	2497	1187	3085	1784	5127	2338	4894	1787	3979	2180	5070	1586	3778	5586	1065	4209	946	1938	7890	2608	2081	2473	6943	2665	1708	6079	2136	4008	2090	1005	3997	2834	2022	2251	11080	3775	20260	8001	6116	4364	37150	18820	1041	4771	2854	3584	24630	6695	3982	604	997	32410	3123	8717	1267	1015	3953	757	874	2033	5939	4487	1406	1972	3210	16160	4794	8567	982	3020	5514	1680	2519	5159	740	4441	7173	1875	2473	6163	9136	1936	17650	3715	2682	15290	3637	5110	5000	4160	4787	7572	3067	8834	4773	2140	2324	2134	3151	1039	13310	1270	3508	1063	11670	2245	2004	3449	1653	524	782	13800	13280	3113	1664	10750	2227	1781	26510	6020	4378	6338	1644	1348	1517	3195	6681	632	2000	2775	2225	1669	1612	1896	3885	1722	3776	6186	4149	2985	5442	1962	2224	7948	4235	2854	1291	10970	7994	10450	2069	1534	11600	1523	3788	5696	4277	10790	2344	1317	1032	4467	1780	1584	1112	4864	1649	3650	2296	1998	495	7802	8970	1584	1229	1650	14370	10150	6560	5908	8538	3318	2257	1776	1947	1513	1945	1795	479	4794	2025	1504	1688	4354	17380	5548	1809	2602	10260	1901	2456	8974	1990	1120	1978	2784	3512	2152	5818
2020-12-09	601	1532	3761	1512	3809	2854	3203	1114	5632	8081	10990	2068	4981	2659	4051	3931	3613	5793	43480	3407	10240	5525	2695	15790	2521	7575	1734	30630	1845	1772	7236	1841	4307	16150	1617	6019	2475	2196	3515	4952	10370	8654	2021	3965	2882	3513	2751	1730	4039	6636	2726	1693	2446	9572	9464	2887	1332	1232	4032	2501	1216	1327	3910	1015	20380	9402	1414	1578	7068	2255	3664	2948	1398	8343	1310	12840	3434	2908	11410	8790	733	1784	1626	2384	3889	1757	10510	3951	2378	1335	1755	945	2172	7361	2959	1463	3104	2830	1521	1452	2305	928	2587	8046	3673	2527	1201	3143	1796	5200	2356	4912	1793	3999	2190	5142	1614	3797	5646	1072	4231	969	1959	8026	2621	2102	2482	7012	2675	1719	6138	2146	4027	2112	1008	4032	2856	2036	2273	11130	3824	20370	8017	6168	4380	37300	18930	1048	4819	2871	3632	24670	6772	4109	613	1003	32530	3139	8989	1276	1026	4007	765	879	2051	5968	4553	1417	1978	3246	16200	4822	8709	991	3033	5544	1695	2553	5192	754	4469	7209	1884	2486	6214	9202	1959	17710	3744	2703	15340	3660	5147	5058	4170	4823	7606	3102	8968	4785	2154	2344	2144	3175	1043	13370	1292	3529	1091	11730	2258	2038	3459	1661	528	787	13840	13390	3131	1676	10770	2237	1800	26610	6039	4425	6383	1657	1359	1528	3214	6720	635	2016	2813	2236	1692	1623	1907	3914	1743	3792	6220	4164	3024	5491	1977	2244	7976	4260	2876	1303	11010	8032	10550	2077	1548	11660	1538	3847	5839	4311	10820	2361	1331	1037	4491	1791	1591	1123	4940	1664	3713	2344	2005	504	7908	8985	1606	1239	1662	14440	10220	6688	5953	8567	3334	2280	1786	1971	1525	1960	1805	484	4818	2052	1509	1701	4383	17440	5588	1815	2620	10280	1935	2497	9056	2000	1125	1987	2814	3526	2163	5832
2020-12-10	603	1540	3784	1524	3828	2896	3239	1123	5710	8153	11030	2073	5104	2677	4084	3955	3639	5865	43740	3426	10280	5548	2707	15830	2563	7601	1763	30760	1864	1781	7312	1866	4325	16230	1634	6096	2485	2233	3532	4983	10410	8706	2033	4004	2904	3574	2761	1756	4071	6659	2748	1705	2455	9608	9496	2902	1339	1241	4055	2522	1219	1335	3920	1019	20470	9469	1423	1587	7146	2276	3693	2991	1408	8392	1317	12940	3455	2981	11480	8860	741	1804	1635	2410	3916	1765	10560	3978	2394	1341	1762	947	2190	7462	2999	1475	3121	2846	1532	1475	2349	936	2595	8068	3693	2557	1214	3202	1808	5278	2374	4926	1800	4019	2201	5198	1641	3810	5701	1081	4253	992	1976	8153	2633	2124	2490	7079	2686	1730	6201	2157	4046	2140	1011	4066	2877	2050	2291	11190	3871	20470	8040	6214	4399	37430	19040	1056	4866	2890	3681	24730	6854	4243	622	1010	32670	3151	9269	1285	1038	4062	772	885	2065	5996	4618	1429	1984	3274	16240	4854	8838	1000	3044	5571	1711	2587	5226	764	4499	7241	1893	2497	6263	9262	1981	17770	3772	2724	15380	3684	5181	5099	4183	4852	7642	3135	9100	4798	2167	2360	2155	3196	1048	13420	1314	3550	1108	11790	2272	2068	3471	1669	532	792	13890	13460	3145	1687	10790	2249	1820	26720	6057	4479	6416	1670	1370	1538	3233	6764	638	2032	2842	2248	1709	1633	1920	3941	1765	3811	6258	4180	3069	5535	1992	2265	8006	4288	2895	1315	11050	8070	10660	2083	1559	11710	1553	3902	5976	4345	10850	2378	1344	1045	4520	1806	1597	1134	5015	1678	3779	2393	2017	513	7998	9005	1628	1250	1671	14500	10280	6782	5997	8595	3353	2302	1796	2003	1538	1976	1815	490	4833	2080	1514	1709	4414	17520	5628	1822	2638	10300	1959	2518	9132	2006	1129	1997	2844	3541	2174	5846
2020-12-11	606	1548	3804	1534	3865	2939	3282	1133	5792	8230	11080	2078	5230	2697	4118	3978	3666	5943	44010	3446	10340	5575	2721	15900	2606	7622	1783	30890	1887	1790	7378	1891	4343	16300	1655	6179	2496	2262	3547	5014	10460	8754	2043	4040	2927	3636	2770	1784	4102	6684	2770	1716	2466	9663	9532	2917	1346	1250	4082	2543	1222	1343	3930	1022	20550	9537	1432	1594	7232	2295	3723	3028	1416	8426	1324	13020	3471	3053	11570	8935	749	1821	1645	2435	3944	1783	10610	4005	2411	1353	1771	949	2207	7555	3044	1486	3129	2862	1543	1491	2395	948	2604	8090	3708	2588	1227	3265	1820	5345	2392	4946	1806	4040	2210	5265	1670	3825	5757	1089	4275	1017	1990	8276	2643	2146	2501	7138	2696	1740	6257	2167	4065	2166	1014	4101	2897	2064	2312	11260	3919	20560	8060	6256	4416	37560	19130	1063	4918	2901	3730	24770	6927	4388	630	1016	32800	3166	9569	1294	1049	4119	778	891	2082	6020	4688	1441	1991	3302	16280	4883	8975	1010	3052	5604	1726	2622	5257	773	4536	7276	1903	2508	6313	9319	2004	17830	3800	2746	15430	3708	5214	5139	4196	4883	7675	3170	9244	4811	2181	2375	2165	3218	1053	13490	1337	3572	1130	11850	2285	2100	3484	1678	536	796	13920	13540	3160	1698	10820	2260	1840	26820	6082	4529	6447	1684	1380	1548	3245	6805	641	2048	2867	2259	1724	1644	1931	3968	1787	3831	6295	4193	3111	5581	2007	2286	8034	4317	2918	1327	11090	8101	10740	2090	1569	11760	1568	3946	6097	4382	10870	2390	1358	1051	4553	1818	1604	1145	5102	1693	3847	2453	2023	522	8113	9028	1651	1261	1680	14580	10350	6908	6042	8619	3370	2327	1807	2028	1551	1993	1827	497	4843	2108	1519	1717	4439	17610	5669	1828	2655	10320	1981	2542	9214	2013	1133	2006	2874	3557	2184	5862
2020-12-12	608	1556	3823	1545	3884	2982	3316	1142	5859	8284	11120	2083	5355	2714	4151	3989	3693	5995	44250	3465	10390	5597	2730	15940	2649	7645	1799	30990	1912	1798	7440	1917	4361	16350	1673	6248	2503	2295	3564	5043	10490	8801	2053	4069	2950	3700	2777	1805	4134	6708	2793	1727	2475	9693	9564	2931	1353	1259	4114	2564	1225	1352	3939	1026	20620	9595	1441	1600	7302	2313	3752	3064	1424	8461	1330	13080	3485	3121	11640	8992	757	1840	1651	2461	3972	1790	10660	4031	2427	1361	1778	952	2225	7649	3088	1495	3134	2879	1554	1506	2441	955	2611	8107	3728	2619	1241	3321	1832	5400	2410	4960	1812	4060	2219	5316	1698	3835	5787	1097	4297	1041	2003	8358	2651	2169	2507	7202	2705	1747	6313	2178	4085	2190	1018	4137	2918	2078	2328	11310	3971	20630	8078	6293	4430	37660	19210	1070	4959	2912	3779	24810	6993	4505	636	1021	32880	3180	9839	1302	1061	4174	783	896	2097	6041	4757	1453	1997	3322	16320	4916	9103	1019	3064	5635	1742	2657	5285	783	4560	7308	1912	2518	6361	9369	2027	17890	3825	2767	15470	3732	5243	5183	4203	4911	7705	3196	9365	4824	2195	2388	2176	3230	1058	13520	1360	3594	1143	11890	2299	2127	3496	1685	539	799	13940	13590	3172	1709	10830	2267	1861	26920	6099	4575	6476	1697	1389	1555	3257	6840	644	2065	2889	2271	1735	1653	1941	3994	1809	3848	6341	4207	3145	5609	2023	2308	8052	4342	2936	1340	11120	8130	10830	2096	1581	11790	1581	3994	6212	4416	10900	2402	1372	1058	4574	1829	1611	1155	5172	1708	3889	2497	2029	532	8160	9042	1673	1271	1686	14640	10410	6982	6087	8642	3385	2352	1817	2046	1563	2009	1836	501	4851	2136	1523	1723	4466	17660	5710	1833	2671	10340	2008	2557	9279	2018	1137	2014	2905	3571	2193	5877

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-05