COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-08

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	11-03	10-21	10-28	11-08	10-29	--	--	10-31	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	11-02	10-29	10-24	--	--	11-02	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	10-12	10-28	10-30	--	11-03	--	10-04	09-27	10-28	10-29	11-01	10-31	10-24	--	11-04	--	--	10-13	--	10-31	11-02	10-29	11-02	10-19	11-02	--	10-11	10-16	10-31	11-02	11-02	10-30	11-02	11-02	11-01	10-18	--	--	11-01	11-02	11-02	10-29	11-02	10-14	10-31	--	11-02	11-02	--	11-01	11-01	11-02	11-02	10-30	10-31	11-01	11-02	11-08	10-20	10-31	--	--	--	11-03	10-11	09-27	11-02	11-03	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	11-09	11-02	--	10-28	--	10-28	09-27	10-25	10-17	11-03	--	--	10-30	--	10-30	11-02	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-02	11-01	11-07	11-01	10-11	--	04-21	10-30	10-13	11-02	10-31	10-28	--	10-29	09-29	10-28	10-07	09-27	11-02	11-02	--	11-01	--	09-29	--	--	--	10-30	09-22	10-26	11-25	11-02	--	--	11-08	10-30	11-02	11-02	--	10-21	11-02	09-27	09-26	10-29	--	10-31	10-14	10-25	11-02	10-29	11-02	11-13	11-02	11-02	11-03	11-01	10-30	11-02	--	09-30	11-02	10-31	10-25	11-01	10-11	--	11-02	11-02	10-13	--	--	11-02	10-30	11-01	10-13	10-13	11-01	10-18	--	10-12	--	10-17	11-02	--	10-09	10-31	10-30	11-02	10-19	11-02	10-30	11-04	09-30	11-03	11-02	09-29	11-01	11-02	11-02	10-30	11-02	10-29	10-28	10-31	11-02	10-31	10-31	11-09	11-02	11-03	10-30	10-13	--	10-25	10-30	11-02	--	--	10-30	--	10-06	11-01	10-30	11-02	10-18	10-12	10-31	10-31	10-29	11-02	11-01	--	11-25	11-01	10-18	11-02	--	10-28	11-02	10-05	11-03	11-03	11-11	11-02	--	--	10-25	11-21	--	10-13	--	10-30	11-02	10-29	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-30	11-08	11-01	10-30	11-02	10-30	10-05	--	10-31	10-13	10-23	10-21	11-07	11-02	11-02	10-04	--	--	11-03	10-30	11-08	10-30	--	10-11	10-30	10-06
Peak daily increment	8	28	84	49	64			21			191	28		36	79	72			618	63	163	99	55	235		138		446		50			71	325	26		40		57	70	159	142	54	49	51		40			132		27	35	134	146	53	25		62	32	23	20	70	22	297	148	21	30			52	47	29	166	27	249	59		253	120		37	28	37	111	32	231	77	31	17	32	17				25	55	76	28	19			41	132	71	37	24		29		35	71	32	55	43			66		16	76				48		43		53	24	75	29	59		16	55	35	29	30	291		362	152	71	85	542	257	13		61		530				14	610	61	259	29			18	11	32	93		25	38	55	391	85		21	51	161	27	50	109	18	91	123	35	58	93	132		615	68	41	260	50	64		83	88	101			95	43	36	41	42	20	197		64		199	44		66	18	8	18	237	233	87	28	185	37	31	435	113	75	97	23	18	26	65	141	12	28	44	80	42	33	30	70		76	90	77			35		118	82	58	19	183	125	196	31	34	162	25		139	67	177	47		15	90	21	19	20	102	24			47	9		138		19	26	273	164			135	58		22	40	18	30	29	8	91		23	24	62	320	87	33	41	137			137	38	15	32		65	42	130
Days since peak	35	48	41	30	40			38			56	65		36	40	45			36	36	51	58	42	57		40		40		54			57	41	39		35		65	72	41	40	37	38	45		34			56		38	36	40	36	50	36		58	53	38	36	36	39	36	36	37	51			37	36	36	40	36	55	38		36	36		37	37	36	36	39	38	37	36	30	49	38				35	58	72	36	35			58	39	58	29	36		41		41	72	44	52	35			39		39	36				36		41		36	37	31	37	58		231	39	56	36	38	41		40	70	41	62	72	36	36		37		70				39	77	43	13	36			30	39	36	36		48	36	72	73	40		38	55	44	36	40	36	25	36	36	35	37	39	36		69	36	38	44	37	58		36	36	56			36	39	37	56	56	37	51		57		52	36		60	38	39	36	50	36	39	34	69	35	36	70	37	36	36	39	36	40	41	38	36	38	38	29	36	35	39	56		44	39	36			39		63	37	39	36	51	57	38	38	40	36	37		13	37	51	36		41	36	64	35	35	27	36			44	17		56		39	36	40	36			49	52		39	30	37	39	36	39	64		38	56	46	48	31	36	36	65			35	39	30	39		58	39	63
Last total	615	1532	3780	1537	3818	2972	3227	1119	5616	8038	10973	2093	5066	2659	4044	3888	3643	5833	43381	3420	10220	5509	2706	15759	2492	7588	1746	30529	1951	1774	7293	1891	4343	16151	1615	6101	2482	2265	3526	4958	10374	8622	2013	3984	2885	3602	2767	1781	4189	6650	2865	1701	2477	9569	9506	2875	1350	1273	4041	2508	1215	1328	3912	1015	20374	9418	1412	1596	7147	2296	3663	2951	1396	8377	1314	12742	3440	2961	11406	8760	743	1781	1622	2400	3883	1787	10466	3986	2405	1328	1753	964	2188	7482	3020	1480	3096	2819	1525	1430	2331	966	2583	8049	3707	2532	1213	3118	1801	5220	2362	4912	1785	4046	2225	5149	1627	3786	5690	1093	4251	1043	2009	8103	2615	2127	2498	7032	2689	1739	6164	2155	4027	2125	1002	4060	2865	2016	2262	11106	3862	20263	8019	6227	4359	37304	18832	1060	4884	2873	3690	24713	6737	4030	643	994	32499	3132	8701	1293	1036	4069	769	886	2068	5987	4610	1407	1998	3225	16216	4811	8686	998	3034	5511	1704	2537	5176	744	4490	7204	1905	2499	6230	9207	1963	17691	3726	2691	15339	3652	5109	5083	4223	4865	7599	3143	9015	4815	2145	2343	2159	3203	1048	13325	1304	3508	1118	11709	2275	1990	3451	1692	535	784	13878	13287	3143	1677	10816	2253	1829	26584	6104	4458	6375	1655	1363	1543	3256	6752	627	2008	2771	2264	1665	1625	1933	3881	1765	3802	6293	4194	3160	5557	2011	2237	7943	4323	2885	1304	11021	8046	10491	2094	1540	11679	1530	3856	5789	4278	10785	2359	1359	1035	4483	1812	1585	1119	4866	1687	3813	2366	2006	479	7952	9007	1656	1258	1666	14405	10142	6689	6042	8583	3379	2304	1795	1976	1528	1968	1856	474	4821	2060	1513	1706	4427	17411	5583	1821	2635	10276	1936	2485	9043	1996	1141	2016	2830	3519	2183	5836
Last daily increment	6	10	35	21	39	112	63	10	128	122	68	10	212	22	59	21	49	122	327	28	60	32	21	67	58	40	40	130	63	15	102	46	41	104	26	151	33	64	14	46	56	51	12	59	35	112	18	71	103	32	84	15	36	55	55	16	11	38	34	28	4	10	17	5	137	107	11	29	127	28	29	51	14	65	9	85	30	117	93	93	16	21	10	46	36	12	67	53	26	13	9	7	29	189	79	28	27	14	16	18	69	49	17	37	32	51	11	66	31	83	36	25	4	60	20	98	48	22	106	19	32	52	48	219	14	40	25	110	26	23	81	22	20	33	3	69	41	13	21	76	75	112	18	116	26	169	102	21	104	20	55	61	90	116	18	4	170	17	241	30	19	90	12	10	19	56	95	12	10	40	63	38	157	16	20	26	28	37	40	12	50	35	28	25	89	98	23	66	29	21	48	33	27	79	22	59	47	48	194	27	11	36	20	31	5	74	41	19	50	77	22	23	21	26	7	2	58	87	25	17	34	23	33	112	48	86	56	22	16	28	43	71	1	17	35	21	18	24	21	21	43	28	81	27	94	117	34	34	34	90	41	23	43	46	94	14	13	64	19	90	136	32	20	16	22	5	44	22	11	8	70	23	130	84	7	3	168	26	43	21	6	90	66	168	107	38	38	34	17	41	20	29	26	8	36	42	11	21	52	78	57	15	30	20	43	49	111	12	9	31	55	19	19	14
Last week	27	50	167	114	173	449	331	60	637	607	271	79	913	137	215	160	222	601	1886	197	311	175	133	353	231	223	206	759	294	90	532	243	158	472	119	654	112	295	108	218	346	298	76	282	156	607	92	203	435	193	383	96	127	314	325	112	73	127	208	155	18	58	80	28	700	448	53	95	648	211	176	309	64	356	45	483	143	505	514	509	66	131	66	184	196	96	337	258	161	60	62	32	142	864	383	115	110	93	93	100	347	107	57	151	154	219	90	429	113	560	146	143	37	211	125	532	179	112	524	88	186	270	179	1070	72	188	96	528	120	125	408	84	124	221	13	307	181	62	137	412	370	593	126	439	103	877	739	53	434	132	423	392	536	665	102	35	807	106	1395	108	80	429	55	50	114	237	505	63	115	162	276	201	921	78	96	150	121	239	238	54	227	213	83	119	434	415	147	409	185	165	306	182	188	400	137	313	242	275	962	170	85	143	91	193	31	384	174	124	180	419	118	179	74	102	40	33	287	512	144	86	157	86	180	618	220	375	267	96	101	102	182	335	13	92	195	90	106	93	131	164	163	150	350	171	476	465	177	160	179	275	158	76	276	245	611	76	85	382	116	364	810	200	170	88	140	51	188	123	37	70	496	114	529	401	41	20	815	182	224	89	77	456	413	871	435	218	215	216	91	167	82	133	138	36	127	199	45	87	245	493	283	51	143	166	200	214	576	59	49	91	246	95	92	104
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																																	75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																																	6	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-09 to 2020-12-15

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-08	615	1532	3780	1537	3818	2972	3227	1119	5616	8038	10973	2093	5066	2659	4044	3888	3643	5833	43381	3420	10220	5509	2706	15759	2492	7588	1746	30529	1951	1774	7293	1891	4343	16151	1615	6101	2482	2265	3526	4958	10374	8622	2013	3984	2885	3602	2767	1781	4189	6650	2865	1701	2477	9569	9506	2875	1350	1273	4041	2508	1215	1328	3912	1015	20374	9418	1412	1596	7147	2296	3663	2951	1396	8377	1314	12742	3440	2961	11406	8760	743	1781	1622	2400	3883	1787	10466	3986	2405	1328	1753	964	2188	7482	3020	1480	3096	2819	1525	1430	2331	966	2583	8049	3707	2532	1213	3118	1801	5220	2362	4912	1785	4046	2225	5149	1627	3786	5690	1093	4251	1043	2009	8103	2615	2127	2498	7032	2689	1739	6164	2155	4027	2125	1002	4060	2865	2016	2262	11106	3862	20263	8019	6227	4359	37304	18832	1060	4884	2873	3690	24713	6737	4030	643	994	32499	3132	8701	1293	1036	4069	769	886	2068	5987	4610	1407	1998	3225	16216	4811	8686	998	3034	5511	1704	2537	5176	744	4490	7204	1905	2499	6230	9207	1963	17691	3726	2691	15339	3652	5109	5083	4223	4865	7599	3143	9015	4815	2145	2343	2159	3203	1048	13325	1304	3508	1118	11709	2275	1990	3451	1692	535	784	13878	13287	3143	1677	10816	2253	1829	26584	6104	4458	6375	1655	1363	1543	3256	6752	627	2008	2771	2264	1665	1625	1933	3881	1765	3802	6293	4194	3160	5557	2011	2237	7943	4323	2885	1304	11021	8046	10491	2094	1540	11679	1530	3856	5789	4278	10785	2359	1359	1035	4483	1812	1585	1119	4866	1687	3813	2366	2006	479	7952	9007	1656	1258	1666	14405	10142	6689	6042	8583	3379	2304	1795	1976	1528	1968	1856	474	4821	2060	1513	1706	4427	17411	5583	1821	2635	10276	1936	2485	9043	1996	1141	2016	2830	3519	2183	5836
2020-12-09	621	1541	3829	1558	3880	3033	3285	1130	5740	8158	11010	2102	5248	2675	4082	3915	3658	5923	43850	3450	10280	5569	2726	15870	2535	7648	1796	30760	1951	1787	7364	1920	4361	16410	1635	6237	2506	2319	3558	4982	10470	8691	2025	3992	2920	3695	2783	1799	4266	6683	2887	1716	2493	9669	9531	2894	1360	1295	4072	2531	1218	1338	3928	1021	20490	9513	1422	1610	7282	2317	3703	2965	1408	8416	1322	12860	3457	3051	11580	8841	753	1813	1633	2430	3900	1802	10640	4023	2426	1339	1764	964	2198	7660	3074	1497	3130	2836	1529	1445	2394	997	2602	8077	3729	2566	1229	3185	1816	5220	2384	4961	1792	4079	2245	5246	1643	3807	5690	1104	4294	1085	2102	8440	2635	2158	2510	7118	2711	1755	6229	2170	4072	2143	1012	4105	2891	2029	2282	11220	3914	20530	8021	6232	4394	37590	19010	1069	4884	2920	3741	24800	6805	4197	668	1000	32710	3173	8950	1308	1045	4138	776	893	2088	6036	4692	1419	2010	3270	16270	4858	8787	1010	3051	5553	1722	2575	5227	750	4548	7224	1921	2525	6289	9316	1970	17760	3759	2714	15480	3680	5169	5168	4250	4911	7622	3174	9153	4841	2151	2364	2173	3214	1055	13420	1336	3521	1126	11830	2296	2017	3468	1704	540	790	13970	13470	3164	1692	10880	2269	1854	26780	6138	4517	6435	1670	1376	1557	3274	6830	630	2025	2805	2291	1707	1641	1948	3908	1815	3839	6360	4217	3246	5618	2034	2292	7987	4398	2921	1317	11070	8091	10600	2105	1550	11740	1548	3955	5886	4352	10870	2404	1377	1043	4547	1812	1594	1136	4951	1705	3847	2429	2015	502	7962	9043	1694	1270	1678	14570	10270	6879	6176	8632	3414	2329	1808	2004	1543	1987	1856	479	4824	2097	1523	1719	4450	17630	5627	1833	2657	10300	1978	2535	9199	2010	1142	2034	2912	3548	2199	5852
2020-12-10	625	1550	3856	1577	3911	3108	3342	1140	5840	8259	11030	2111	5424	2692	4119	3944	3671	6007	44140	3479	10330	5603	2745	15930	2577	7684	1843	30890	1983	1799	7432	1948	4378	16540	1654	6367	2530	2375	3572	5014	10510	8719	2037	4032	2942	3786	2798	1818	4339	6715	2947	1730	2509	9717	9574	2911	1370	1314	4101	2553	1221	1348	3943	1027	20610	9558	1430	1623	7411	2336	3741	3018	1420	8455	1330	12950	3484	3137	11660	8918	762	1835	1644	2458	3917	1815	10710	4064	2446	1349	1774	965	2207	7830	3127	1512	3152	2852	1534	1460	2456	1023	2620	8104	3743	2599	1243	3251	1831	5274	2405	4986	1799	4110	2266	5342	1664	3828	5744	1114	4327	1126	2160	8760	2654	2187	2519	7202	2732	1770	6291	2184	4098	2182	1021	4146	2915	2042	2302	11270	3965	20660	8031	6288	4413	37750	19140	1078	4948	2948	3794	24870	6868	4341	694	1006	32860	3182	9180	1322	1054	4205	783	899	2106	6082	4771	1430	2021	3294	16320	4887	8908	1021	3068	5592	1739	2612	5276	757	4579	7243	1936	2549	6345	9382	1981	17830	3791	2737	15540	3708	5202	5219	4275	4953	7648	3203	9286	4865	2156	2384	2186	3236	1061	13490	1367	3534	1146	11900	2315	2043	3484	1716	545	796	14030	13560	3183	1706	10900	2284	1878	26870	6169	4574	6478	1685	1389	1570	3292	6879	633	2041	2838	2314	1728	1656	1962	3935	1863	3855	6420	4241	3329	5697	2055	2334	8024	4446	2944	1330	11120	8136	10710	2116	1560	11780	1565	4026	6015	4391	10890	2425	1395	1050	4606	1831	1602	1152	5033	1721	3917	2493	2024	506	8097	9060	1732	1282	1690	14650	10330	7063	6289	8669	3448	2353	1821	2031	1555	2005	1873	487	4839	2132	1532	1731	4491	17750	5670	1844	2679	10330	2016	2574	9305	2023	1145	2051	2964	3563	2214	5868
2020-12-11	630	1559	3873	1596	3948	3186	3400	1150	5945	8367	11060	2120	5606	2708	4155	3977	3697	6093	44460	3508	10390	5644	2764	16000	2619	7720	1893	31010	2024	1812	7501	1977	4396	16640	1674	6499	2553	2431	3584	5046	10550	8744	2049	4069	2964	3880	2813	1839	4415	6747	3000	1744	2527	9765	9625	2929	1381	1333	4130	2576	1225	1357	3959	1033	20720	9622	1439	1635	7542	2355	3780	3058	1431	8494	1338	13010	3508	3226	11760	8997	771	1847	1654	2486	3934	1829	10760	4110	2467	1359	1784	966	2216	8003	3182	1528	3169	2868	1539	1474	2519	1049	2637	8131	3756	2632	1258	3315	1846	5325	2427	5024	1806	4142	2281	5439	1690	3848	5808	1124	4363	1168	2207	9070	2673	2216	2540	7286	2753	1785	6353	2198	4118	2221	1029	4188	2940	2055	2322	11340	4018	20760	8034	6357	4426	37900	19260	1086	5026	2973	3851	24930	6930	4482	712	1013	33010	3199	9410	1337	1062	4273	790	905	2125	6128	4853	1441	2033	3319	16370	4917	9054	1033	3085	5633	1756	2649	5325	764	4602	7263	1952	2572	6402	9437	1985	17900	3823	2760	15600	3736	5233	5279	4301	4998	7672	3232	9421	4890	2161	2404	2199	3270	1068	13570	1399	3548	1167	11970	2335	2069	3501	1727	550	801	14080	13650	3203	1719	10920	2299	1902	26970	6201	4630	6524	1700	1402	1583	3311	6922	636	2057	2872	2337	1745	1671	1976	3963	1911	3882	6483	4260	3417	5773	2077	2371	8059	4511	2971	1342	11170	8180	10830	2128	1571	11840	1582	4111	6138	4431	10910	2443	1413	1057	4664	1846	1610	1167	5116	1738	3998	2559	2033	510	8215	9080	1771	1293	1702	14730	10400	7297	6425	8700	3482	2378	1833	2058	1566	2023	1892	497	4853	2168	1542	1744	4521	17870	5713	1855	2701	10350	2053	2620	9431	2036	1147	2068	3026	3578	2229	5883
2020-12-12	635	1568	3885	1614	3973	3262	3457	1160	6045	8442	11090	2129	5786	2724	4190	3994	3702	6176	44720	3536	10420	5677	2783	16030	2661	7755	1943	31100	2068	1824	7568	2004	4413	16750	1693	6628	2575	2469	3601	5074	10580	8758	2061	4101	2984	3972	2827	1858	4488	6779	3036	1758	2543	9792	9662	2946	1391	1350	4159	2598	1227	1367	3974	1039	20830	9649	1448	1647	7671	2372	3818	3097	1443	8532	1345	13070	3526	3314	11830	9074	780	1861	1665	2513	3949	1843	10810	4147	2487	1369	1794	968	2224	8172	3236	1543	3181	2884	1545	1489	2582	1074	2654	8157	3773	2664	1272	3379	1860	5338	2448	5047	1813	4172	2292	5535	1709	3868	5837	1134	4381	1209	2218	9300	2692	2245	2547	7369	2773	1800	6414	2212	4133	2247	1038	4228	2964	2068	2341	11410	4071	20880	8034	6408	4440	38030	19360	1094	5088	2990	3907	24970	6989	4611	724	1019	33100	3211	9610	1351	1069	4339	796	912	2143	6172	4934	1452	2044	3335	16420	4941	9150	1045	3101	5672	1773	2685	5374	772	4633	7280	1967	2596	6457	9476	1994	17960	3854	2782	15650	3763	5260	5328	4326	5040	7694	3258	9555	4914	2165	2424	2212	3288	1074	13610	1431	3561	1183	12020	2354	2095	3517	1738	554	807	14120	13740	3221	1733	10940	2314	1925	27040	6231	4685	6558	1714	1414	1596	3329	6955	639	2073	2904	2359	1754	1686	1990	3989	1958	3904	6543	4276	3503	5829	2098	2398	8078	4557	2996	1354	11220	8224	10930	2139	1581	11860	1599	4194	6245	4460	10930	2459	1431	1064	4722	1860	1619	1183	5197	1754	4052	2625	2042	516	8318	9094	1809	1305	1713	14800	10450	7481	6497	8722	3515	2402	1846	2084	1573	2041	1900	499	4862	2204	1551	1755	4542	17950	5755	1866	2722	10370	2089	2656	9540	2048	1150	2085	3082	3589	2243	5899
2020-12-13	640	1576	3914	1633	3999	3341	3515	1170	6172	8520	11100	2138	5973	2740	4225	4007	3703	6259	45000	3565	10470	5709	2802	16080	2703	7785	1994	31200	2092	1836	7636	2032	4430	16840	1712	6760	2598	2521	3613	5102	10620	8767	2073	4131	3002	4066	2842	1874	4563	6810	3086	1771	2561	9831	9701	2963	1401	1368	4187	2619	1230	1376	3989	1044	20940	9678	1456	1658	7802	2389	3855	3136	1454	8569	1353	13130	3535	3404	11900	9151	788	1879	1675	2541	3964	1856	10840	4177	2506	1379	1804	972	2232	8345	3291	1557	3194	2899	1551	1503	2647	1098	2672	8183	3793	2696	1286	3442	1874	5349	2470	5075	1820	4202	2312	5634	1738	3889	5866	1144	4402	1252	2240	9590	2711	2274	2560	7453	2794	1815	6474	2225	4149	2268	1046	4268	2988	2081	2360	11470	4124	20990	8036	6440	4453	38130	19460	1102	5139	3004	3963	25010	7047	4732	743	1025	33240	3218	9820	1365	1077	4407	803	918	2160	6217	5016	1463	2055	3358	16470	4965	9248	1056	3118	5712	1789	2721	5423	779	4642	7298	1982	2619	6513	9532	1994	18030	3886	2805	15700	3790	5289	5341	4351	5083	7707	3283	9691	4938	2169	2445	2224	3307	1081	13660	1463	3574	1186	12080	2373	2122	3533	1748	559	812	14160	13810	3240	1746	10960	2329	1948	27130	6261	4740	6595	1728	1426	1609	3347	6987	642	2089	2937	2380	1760	1702	2004	4016	2007	3919	6602	4290	3591	5875	2119	2417	8086	4597	3003	1366	11270	8268	11050	2150	1592	11890	1615	4261	6336	4484	10930	2477	1450	1072	4779	1871	1627	1198	5279	1770	4110	2694	2051	519	8412	9097	1849	1316	1725	14860	10520	7662	6590	8745	3548	2427	1858	2109	1584	2059	1909	501	4866	2240	1560	1767	4568	18080	5797	1877	2744	10390	2125	2689	9626	2061	1153	2101	3111	3603	2257	5914
2020-12-14	644	1585	3949	1651	4041	3421	3574	1179	6290	8640	11140	2147	6165	2756	4260	4035	3735	6343	45360	3594	10530	5745	2820	16150	2746	7842	2046	31350	2164	1848	7705	2061	4447	16960	1731	6895	2620	2592	3636	5140	10710	8814	2085	4185	3032	4163	2856	1910	4640	6841	3162	1785	2578	9892	9756	2980	1411	1385	4216	2641	1233	1386	4004	1050	21050	9742	1464	1670	7936	2406	3893	3199	1466	8607	1361	13210	3553	3497	11990	9229	796	1912	1685	2568	3979	1870	10910	4234	2526	1389	1814	976	2240	8522	3346	1572	3214	2915	1557	1518	2714	1123	2689	8210	3834	2728	1300	3506	1889	5402	2491	5099	1827	4232	2332	5734	1779	3909	5927	1153	4433	1295	2275	9950	2730	2304	2578	7537	2814	1830	6535	2239	4182	2308	1054	4308	3011	2094	2380	11560	4178	21130	8045	6527	4470	38320	19590	1110	5241	3037	4020	25080	7105	4885	774	1031	33410	3239	10090	1379	1084	4476	810	924	2178	6261	5099	1475	2066	3388	16520	5001	9418	1067	3134	5751	1806	2758	5472	786	4668	7316	1997	2642	6569	9620	2002	18100	3918	2827	15780	3817	5326	5413	4377	5125	7731	3308	9830	4963	2173	2465	2237	3347	1087	13750	1496	3587	1212	12180	2392	2148	3549	1759	564	818	14220	13890	3258	1760	10990	2343	1971	27260	6292	4796	6648	1743	1438	1622	3365	7046	645	2104	2970	2401	1779	1717	2017	4044	2057	3950	6662	4329	3682	5971	2140	2453	8121	4660	3037	1378	11310	8312	11160	2161	1602	11950	1632	4340	6527	4525	10980	2501	1468	1079	4837	1899	1635	1213	5362	1787	4210	2764	2060	524	8528	9126	1889	1327	1736	14970	10600	7922	6725	8800	3581	2452	1870	2135	1599	2077	1947	506	4892	2277	1569	1779	4621	18210	5839	1888	2765	10430	2161	2733	9748	2073	1156	2118	3171	3619	2271	5929
2020-12-15	649	1594	3978	1670	4072	3504	3634	1189	6418	8757	11200	2156	6364	2772	4295	4057	3782	6427	45670	3622	10580	5773	2839	16220	2790	7877	2099	31470	2217	1860	7774	2090	4464	17040	1750	7032	2643	2653	3650	5180	10770	8869	2097	4234	3060	4262	2871	1959	4718	6873	3217	1799	2595	9956	9806	2998	1421	1402	4245	2663	1236	1396	4019	1056	21160	9836	1473	1682	8072	2422	3931	3244	1477	8645	1368	13300	3576	3593	12080	9307	804	1935	1696	2596	3994	1883	10990	4277	2546	1399	1824	981	2249	8703	3403	1587	3238	2931	1564	1532	2782	1148	2706	8236	3865	2761	1314	3571	1903	5485	2512	5120	1834	4262	2350	5835	1819	3929	6025	1163	4467	1340	2309	10090	2749	2334	2596	7623	2835	1845	6596	2253	4201	2334	1062	4348	3035	2107	2399	11630	4233	21240	8062	6619	4497	38480	19710	1118	5332	3059	4078	25150	7162	5013	794	1037	33560	3258	10330	1394	1092	4546	816	931	2197	6306	5184	1486	2077	3421	16570	5038	9573	1078	3151	5791	1823	2795	5521	794	4715	7334	2012	2666	6625	9711	2022	18160	3949	2850	15830	3844	5355	5470	4402	5168	7775	3333	9971	4987	2178	2485	2250	3377	1094	13810	1530	3600	1253	12250	2411	2175	3565	1770	568	824	14270	13990	3277	1773	11020	2358	1995	27370	6322	4852	6695	1758	1450	1635	3384	7109	648	2120	3003	2422	1798	1732	2031	4071	2108	3977	6721	4354	3775	6028	2161	2485	8156	4725	3071	1390	11360	8356	11270	2172	1613	12000	1649	4410	6650	4557	11010	2514	1487	1086	4895	1918	1643	1229	5445	1803	4337	2837	2069	529	8689	9154	1931	1338	1748	15050	10670	8077	6787	8836	3614	2478	1883	2162	1617	2095	1968	514	4918	2314	1578	1791	4666	18290	5881	1899	2787	10450	2198	2776	9841	2086	1159	2135	3226	3636	2285	5944

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-09 to 2020-12-15

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-08	615	1532	3780	1537	3818	2972	3227	1119	5616	8038	10973	2093	5066	2659	4044	3888	3643	5833	43381	3420	10220	5509	2706	15759	2492	7588	1746	30529	1951	1774	7293	1891	4343	16151	1615	6101	2482	2265	3526	4958	10374	8622	2013	3984	2885	3602	2767	1781	4189	6650	2865	1701	2477	9569	9506	2875	1350	1273	4041	2508	1215	1328	3912	1015	20374	9418	1412	1596	7147	2296	3663	2951	1396	8377	1314	12742	3440	2961	11406	8760	743	1781	1622	2400	3883	1787	10466	3986	2405	1328	1753	964	2188	7482	3020	1480	3096	2819	1525	1430	2331	966	2583	8049	3707	2532	1213	3118	1801	5220	2362	4912	1785	4046	2225	5149	1627	3786	5690	1093	4251	1043	2009	8103	2615	2127	2498	7032	2689	1739	6164	2155	4027	2125	1002	4060	2865	2016	2262	11106	3862	20263	8019	6227	4359	37304	18832	1060	4884	2873	3690	24713	6737	4030	643	994	32499	3132	8701	1293	1036	4069	769	886	2068	5987	4610	1407	1998	3225	16216	4811	8686	998	3034	5511	1704	2537	5176	744	4490	7204	1905	2499	6230	9207	1963	17691	3726	2691	15339	3652	5109	5083	4223	4865	7599	3143	9015	4815	2145	2343	2159	3203	1048	13325	1304	3508	1118	11709	2275	1990	3451	1692	535	784	13878	13287	3143	1677	10816	2253	1829	26584	6104	4458	6375	1655	1363	1543	3256	6752	627	2008	2771	2264	1665	1625	1933	3881	1765	3802	6293	4194	3160	5557	2011	2237	7943	4323	2885	1304	11021	8046	10491	2094	1540	11679	1530	3856	5789	4278	10785	2359	1359	1035	4483	1812	1585	1119	4866	1687	3813	2366	2006	479	7952	9007	1656	1258	1666	14405	10142	6689	6042	8583	3379	2304	1795	1976	1528	1968	1856	474	4821	2060	1513	1706	4427	17411	5583	1821	2635	10276	1936	2485	9043	1996	1141	2016	2830	3519	2183	5836
2020-12-09	620	1542	3810	1556	3850	3059	3282	1130	5751	8179	11020	2102	5239	2682	4084	3907	3684	5946	43690	3447	10280	5539	2728	15820	2542	7626	1786	30660	2004	1789	7395	1934	4374	16240	1637	6221	2503	2326	3546	4990	10440	8669	2024	4030	2913	3704	2781	1819	4274	6683	2929	1717	2501	9630	9551	2891	1362	1297	4071	2535	1217	1337	3923	1020	20500	9497	1421	1613	7260	2327	3694	2997	1409	8439	1322	12820	3459	3054	11490	8855	756	1805	1633	2434	3914	1801	10530	4028	2430	1340	1763	968	2214	7652	3093	1500	3114	2835	1538	1448	2395	987	2594	8067	3730	2569	1231	3183	1819	5298	2386	4935	1790	4085	2245	5244	1660	3806	5769	1107	4282	1093	2059	8313	2630	2160	2513	7126	2706	1756	6234	2171	4050	2154	1005	4112	2896	2028	2283	11170	3930	20380	8033	6298	4374	37460	18950	1071	4953	2896	3772	24780	6823	4161	662	999	32630	3152	8950	1312	1052	4150	780	894	2089	6027	4700	1418	2012	3261	16260	4843	8848	1011	3051	5536	1725	2576	5211	761	4526	7239	1920	2517	6296	9287	1994	17760	3757	2714	15390	3680	5146	5161	4243	4920	7639	3191	9180	4838	2157	2367	2175	3235	1054	13380	1335	3528	1155	11780	2295	2019	3463	1708	541	790	13940	13390	3166	1689	10850	2267	1859	26690	6138	4521	6431	1671	1380	1559	3289	6806	629	2025	2812	2282	1692	1640	1953	3908	1798	3823	6350	4222	3242	5639	2039	2269	7971	4376	2914	1320	11070	8089	10600	2106	1554	11740	1546	3938	5933	4314	10820	2379	1382	1041	4514	1830	1592	1131	4947	1708	3923	2436	2013	486	8081	9030	1696	1275	1681	14490	10210	6863	6146	8622	3409	2340	1810	2001	1543	1989	1876	479	4847	2096	1521	1722	4470	17490	5631	1829	2658	10300	1978	2534	9149	2007	1148	2034	2877	3533	2199	5852
2020-12-10	622	1551	3835	1570	3865	3122	3324	1138	5842	8263	11060	2110	5380	2700	4117	3933	3713	6028	43940	3471	10320	5563	2742	15870	2582	7652	1825	30760	2030	1801	7470	1966	4393	16310	1656	6314	2515	2370	3561	5018	10480	8714	2034	4069	2934	3783	2792	1840	4331	6707	2975	1729	2513	9673	9588	2906	1370	1311	4095	2558	1219	1346	3933	1023	20590	9558	1429	1624	7351	2354	3722	3042	1419	8485	1327	12900	3481	3128	11560	8929	765	1826	1642	2461	3936	1815	10590	4059	2448	1346	1772	970	2232	7785	3139	1513	3135	2849	1548	1465	2447	997	2601	8083	3745	2599	1244	3250	1834	5373	2405	4952	1795	4110	2259	5323	1685	3822	5841	1117	4307	1134	2088	8486	2642	2185	2521	7203	2720	1773	6291	2182	4066	2184	1008	4152	2919	2040	2301	11210	3981	20470	8050	6355	4391	37590	19070	1078	5006	2914	3835	24830	6900	4292	678	1005	32750	3162	9200	1325	1064	4214	788	900	2105	6059	4773	1430	2023	3286	16300	4870	8982	1021	3064	5562	1741	2613	5242	770	4557	7269	1929	2532	6350	9346	2018	17830	3783	2734	15430	3708	5178	5208	4257	4956	7673	3228	9320	4853	2168	2388	2186	3257	1060	13430	1359	3547	1180	11840	2310	2049	3474	1718	546	795	13990	13460	3182	1699	10860	2277	1881	26780	6160	4571	6467	1685	1392	1572	3308	6849	631	2041	2845	2294	1713	1652	1971	3933	1825	3840	6392	4242	3319	5693	2057	2295	8004	4405	2934	1332	11110	8125	10700	2114	1565	11800	1563	3987	6056	4348	10840	2392	1399	1049	4539	1846	1598	1141	5030	1724	3999	2494	2021	490	8188	9052	1728	1286	1692	14550	10270	6989	6211	8653	3433	2368	1821	2024	1555	2007	1892	485	4863	2125	1525	1732	4505	17560	5669	1837	2679	10320	2006	2564	9226	2014	1152	2045	2910	3548	2207	5865
2020-12-11	625	1560	3849	1583	3889	3186	3373	1147	5935	8357	11090	2119	5523	2720	4150	3963	3746	6116	44190	3495	10380	5589	2759	15930	2620	7675	1855	30860	2061	1813	7542	1998	4411	16360	1675	6410	2532	2414	3575	5047	10530	8756	2043	4103	2956	3862	2803	1863	4387	6734	3022	1741	2528	9720	9630	2922	1378	1325	4133	2581	1221	1354	3943	1027	20700	9623	1436	1634	7444	2379	3749	3083	1429	8526	1333	12970	3498	3201	11630	9007	774	1842	1653	2488	3958	1829	10630	4090	2467	1354	1782	972	2250	7921	3189	1528	3147	2864	1558	1481	2500	1012	2609	8098	3760	2629	1257	3321	1848	5447	2424	4974	1801	4134	2272	5424	1712	3838	5920	1127	4332	1176	2116	8646	2652	2210	2534	7286	2733	1787	6348	2193	4081	2216	1010	4191	2942	2053	2320	11260	4031	20550	8064	6417	4403	37720	19170	1084	5067	2929	3901	24880	6973	4421	691	1011	32860	3175	9440	1339	1076	4278	796	906	2120	6088	4849	1442	2033	3311	16330	4896	9132	1030	3074	5588	1757	2650	5274	777	4587	7295	1940	2547	6404	9397	2039	17900	3809	2755	15470	3735	5209	5267	4270	4992	7706	3268	9470	4869	2179	2408	2198	3288	1065	13500	1382	3566	1207	11900	2324	2079	3486	1729	550	800	14020	13530	3197	1709	10890	2286	1903	26870	6181	4622	6503	1698	1405	1585	3328	6889	634	2056	2875	2306	1731	1665	1985	3960	1850	3860	6431	4260	3393	5744	2076	2318	8034	4439	2955	1344	11140	8159	10800	2124	1576	11850	1580	4047	6179	4381	10870	2402	1422	1057	4565	1860	1604	1151	5113	1740	4084	2555	2027	496	8309	9075	1760	1296	1702	14620	10330	7158	6291	8681	3455	2397	1832	2047	1567	2024	1907	493	4878	2153	1531	1741	4535	17630	5707	1843	2698	10350	2034	2599	9318	2023	1157	2055	2948	3562	2215	5880
2020-12-12	628	1568	3863	1597	3907	3250	3416	1156	6025	8421	11130	2126	5666	2737	4182	3980	3773	6185	44420	3518	10410	5613	2772	15960	2656	7698	1883	30950	2095	1824	7614	2029	4429	16410	1694	6505	2543	2455	3591	5073	10560	8793	2053	4135	2975	3941	2811	1883	4442	6758	3064	1752	2538	9748	9665	2937	1386	1338	4156	2603	1223	1362	3952	1031	20770	9680	1444	1642	7534	2401	3776	3124	1438	8564	1340	13030	3513	3275	11690	9073	783	1857	1660	2514	3979	1838	10670	4120	2485	1360	1790	974	2267	8054	3240	1538	3157	2878	1569	1492	2554	1023	2615	8113	3777	2659	1270	3386	1863	5512	2443	4990	1806	4158	2284	5504	1737	3852	5967	1136	4355	1218	2133	8775	2661	2233	2541	7358	2745	1800	6405	2205	4095	2242	1013	4231	2964	2065	2336	11300	4086	20620	8077	6470	4415	37820	19270	1090	5112	2943	3966	24920	7047	4532	704	1017	32940	3188	9650	1352	1088	4341	802	912	2135	6116	4924	1453	2044	3325	16370	4922	9264	1040	3087	5613	1772	2688	5305	786	4614	7316	1949	2561	6457	9442	2060	17960	3832	2776	15510	3760	5235	5314	4283	5029	7737	3303	9620	4884	2189	2427	2209	3301	1070	13530	1405	3585	1226	11950	2338	2104	3497	1739	554	804	14050	13590	3210	1719	10900	2295	1925	26950	6202	4672	6532	1712	1416	1596	3347	6925	636	2072	2903	2317	1743	1674	1997	3986	1871	3880	6464	4276	3454	5792	2094	2339	8055	4467	2975	1356	11180	8191	10890	2133	1590	11890	1596	4098	6292	4412	10890	2410	1437	1063	4590	1873	1610	1161	5181	1755	4150	2614	2033	502	8390	9094	1792	1306	1711	14670	10380	7290	6343	8706	3477	2428	1843	2063	1578	2041	1919	497	4889	2182	1537	1750	4561	17670	5743	1848	2716	10370	2062	2627	9383	2031	1161	2066	2986	3575	2223	5894
2020-12-13	630	1577	3883	1610	3930	3316	3457	1165	6137	8481	11160	2133	5804	2753	4215	3994	3793	6246	44670	3542	10440	5636	2785	16010	2692	7724	1910	31050	2119	1835	7682	2061	4446	16460	1713	6601	2556	2499	3606	5099	10610	8831	2062	4169	2994	4021	2818	1904	4491	6780	3099	1764	2547	9787	9698	2952	1394	1352	4178	2626	1225	1371	3961	1034	20850	9736	1451	1649	7621	2421	3804	3162	1447	8607	1345	13080	3524	3351	11750	9135	792	1875	1666	2540	4001	1851	10710	4147	2504	1368	1797	977	2285	8193	3290	1548	3167	2892	1579	1503	2608	1033	2622	8132	3796	2689	1283	3449	1877	5581	2462	5009	1812	4180	2297	5570	1765	3864	6005	1144	4378	1263	2150	8956	2669	2255	2552	7415	2757	1812	6462	2216	4108	2264	1015	4271	2987	2078	2357	11330	4135	20690	8090	6510	4425	37900	19360	1097	5151	2955	4026	24960	7120	4647	717	1020	33060	3201	9890	1365	1100	4402	809	919	2150	6143	4992	1465	2054	3347	16400	4950	9395	1050	3097	5639	1788	2726	5334	791	4638	7340	1959	2574	6511	9499	2077	18020	3854	2798	15550	3785	5259	5346	4298	5065	7763	3337	9770	4900	2200	2442	2221	3317	1076	13560	1429	3603	1242	12000	2352	2127	3506	1749	559	808	14080	13650	3220	1727	10920	2305	1948	27040	6224	4722	6566	1725	1427	1605	3367	6961	639	2087	2929	2329	1754	1686	2009	4009	1891	3900	6493	4294	3510	5822	2112	2351	8065	4496	2987	1368	11220	8226	10980	2142	1599	11930	1611	4146	6395	4443	10910	2423	1452	1068	4612	1885	1616	1169	5240	1771	4218	2673	2040	506	8478	9110	1821	1315	1719	14720	10450	7390	6392	8732	3497	2456	1854	2078	1590	2058	1929	501	4895	2211	1541	1760	4591	17750	5780	1854	2735	10380	2086	2648	9436	2039	1165	2077	3015	3589	2232	5906
2020-12-14	634	1586	3914	1626	3956	3384	3503	1174	6240	8563	11200	2139	5961	2770	4248	4013	3822	6325	44970	3566	10510	5667	2801	16070	2743	7762	1941	31180	2161	1846	7744	2091	4465	16540	1732	6704	2570	2545	3626	5129	10690	8885	2072	4208	3022	4102	2829	1937	4545	6803	3143	1777	2559	9841	9733	2968	1402	1365	4208	2650	1227	1379	3972	1038	20940	9797	1459	1657	7716	2452	3832	3213	1458	8651	1351	13170	3542	3432	11840	9212	801	1903	1674	2566	4022	1866	10760	4183	2522	1377	1804	980	2301	8335	3342	1568	3185	2907	1589	1518	2663	1043	2632	8157	3826	2720	1296	3522	1892	5654	2480	5027	1817	4204	2311	5644	1799	3878	6056	1153	4403	1309	2164	9159	2680	2283	2564	7487	2771	1824	6520	2227	4127	2296	1018	4311	3008	2091	2376	11390	4190	20790	8112	6573	4447	38010	19470	1103	5209	2979	4086	25020	7192	4793	734	1027	33190	3217	10220	1378	1112	4470	819	925	2165	6176	5069	1477	2065	3382	16430	4979	9558	1059	3110	5669	1803	2764	5367	801	4675	7379	1969	2588	6566	9571	2099	18090	3873	2819	15600	3813	5294	5410	4313	5098	7793	3377	9930	4915	2211	2463	2232	3344	1081	13660	1454	3623	1262	12100	2367	2156	3516	1759	564	813	14120	13710	3236	1738	10940	2318	1970	27160	6246	4772	6608	1739	1441	1615	3386	7015	641	2103	2971	2341	1769	1697	2021	4036	1914	3926	6541	4317	3573	5876	2131	2370	8097	4532	3014	1380	11260	8262	11090	2152	1610	11980	1631	4201	6549	4478	10940	2441	1469	1075	4637	1903	1622	1180	5333	1787	4297	2735	2047	514	8562	9143	1851	1324	1730	14800	10530	7538	6460	8770	3522	2483	1866	2110	1603	2076	1948	507	4914	2241	1546	1773	4630	17830	5820	1860	2756	10410	2117	2674	9513	2047	1169	2087	3051	3608	2243	5919
2020-12-15	636	1596	3937	1642	3977	3453	3562	1183	6342	8641	11250	2146	6121	2791	4282	4031	3859	6412	45250	3590	10560	5692	2817	16130	2791	7786	1971	31300	2185	1859	7806	2127	4482	16590	1751	6798	2584	2592	3643	5160	10750	8946	2081	4242	3044	4185	2838	1965	4600	6827	3182	1788	2569	9900	9770	2983	1410	1379	4235	2673	1229	1387	3982	1042	21030	9877	1466	1665	7811	2476	3859	3253	1468	8694	1357	13260	3559	3514	11910	9282	811	1924	1682	2593	4045	1876	10820	4213	2541	1383	1812	984	2318	8475	3388	1581	3203	2921	1599	1531	2720	1057	2641	8179	3849	2751	1310	3593	1906	5734	2499	5045	1822	4229	2324	5724	1830	3896	6118	1163	4428	1356	2184	9296	2689	2304	2575	7576	2784	1839	6579	2239	4143	2321	1021	4352	3031	2104	2393	11440	4246	20890	8131	6636	4474	38150	19590	1110	5260	2997	4150	25070	7274	4927	749	1033	33320	3233	10520	1392	1125	4532	826	931	2180	6204	5148	1489	2076	3410	16470	5008	9711	1069	3123	5701	1819	2803	5402	807	4709	7411	1980	2600	6621	9644	2123	18160	3898	2841	15650	3839	5328	5464	4328	5130	7831	3416	10080	4931	2223	2486	2244	3365	1087	13710	1479	3642	1293	12170	2381	2186	3530	1769	568	817	14150	13790	3248	1749	10960	2332	1993	27270	6268	4823	6643	1752	1452	1627	3401	7067	644	2119	3010	2353	1785	1709	2032	4065	1949	3946	6578	4333	3639	5918	2149	2391	8130	4567	3040	1392	11300	8293	11180	2163	1620	12030	1650	4243	6668	4515	10980	2451	1484	1081	4661	1916	1628	1191	5413	1802	4383	2795	2053	523	8649	9170	1884	1334	1740	14870	10600	7661	6509	8803	3544	2514	1877	2149	1617	2094	1960	514	4930	2271	1552	1786	4661	17900	5854	1867	2776	10420	2157	2698	9577	2053	1173	2099	3088	3625	2251	5935

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-08