COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-08

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-08

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)11-0310-2110-2811-0810-29 -- --10-31 -- --10-1310-04 --11-0210-2910-24 -- --11-0211-0210-1810-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --10-29 --10-15 -- --10-1210-2810-30 --11-03 --10-0409-2710-2810-2911-0110-3110-24 --11-04 -- --10-13 --10-3111-0210-2911-0210-1911-02 --10-1110-1610-3111-0211-0210-3011-0211-0211-0110-18 -- --11-0111-0211-0210-2911-0210-1410-31 --11-0211-02 --11-0111-0111-0211-0210-3010-3111-0111-0211-0810-2010-31 -- -- --11-0310-1109-2711-0211-03 -- --10-1110-3010-1111-0911-02 --10-28 --10-2809-2710-2510-1711-03 -- --10-30 --10-3011-02 -- -- --11-02 --10-28 --11-0211-0111-0711-0110-11 --04-2110-3010-1311-0210-3110-28 --10-2909-2910-2810-0709-2711-0211-02 --11-01 --09-29 -- -- --10-3009-2210-2611-2511-02 -- --11-0810-3011-0211-02 --10-2111-0209-2709-2610-29 --10-3110-1410-2511-0210-2911-0211-1311-0211-0211-0311-0110-3011-02 --09-3011-0210-3110-2511-0110-11 --11-0211-0210-13 -- --11-0210-3011-0110-1310-1311-0110-18 --10-12 --10-1711-02 --10-0910-3110-3011-0210-1911-0210-3011-0409-3011-0311-0209-2911-0111-0211-0210-3011-0210-2910-2810-3111-0210-3110-3111-0911-0211-0310-3010-13 --10-2510-3011-02 -- --10-30 --10-0611-0110-3011-0210-1810-1210-3110-3110-2911-0211-01 --11-2511-0110-1811-02 --10-2811-0210-0511-0311-0311-1111-02 -- --10-2511-21 --10-13 --10-3011-0210-2911-02 -- --10-2010-17 --10-3011-0811-0110-3011-0210-3010-05 --10-3110-1310-2310-2111-0711-0211-0210-04 -- --11-0310-3011-0810-30 --10-1110-3010-06
Peak daily increment 8 28 84 49 64 21 191 28 36 79 72 618 63 163 99 55 235 138 446 50 71 325 26 40 57 70 159 142 54 49 51 40 132 27 35 134 146 53 25 62 32 23 20 70 22 297 148 21 30 52 47 29 166 27 249 59 253 120 37 28 37 111 32 231 77 31 17 32 17 25 55 76 28 19 41 132 71 37 24 29 35 71 32 55 43 66 16 76 48 43 53 24 75 29 59 16 55 35 29 30 291 362 152 71 85 542 257 13 61 530 14 610 61 259 29 18 11 32 93 25 38 55 391 85 21 51 161 27 50 109 18 91 123 35 58 93 132 615 68 41 260 50 64 83 88 101 95 43 36 41 42 20 197 64 199 44 66 18 8 18 237 233 87 28 185 37 31 435 113 75 97 23 18 26 65 141 12 28 44 80 42 33 30 70 76 90 77 35 118 82 58 19 183 125 196 31 34 162 25 139 67 177 47 15 90 21 19 20 102 24 47 9 138 19 26 273 164 135 58 22 40 18 30 29 8 91 23 24 62 320 87 33 41 137 137 38 15 32 65 42 130
Days since peak 35 48 41 30 40 38 56 65 36 40 45 36 36 51 58 42 57 40 40 54 57 41 39 35 65 72 41 40 37 38 45 34 56 38 36 40 36 50 36 58 53 38 36 36 39 36 36 37 51 37 36 36 40 36 55 38 36 36 37 37 36 36 39 38 37 36 30 49 38 35 58 72 36 35 58 39 58 29 36 41 41 72 44 52 35 39 39 36 36 41 36 37 31 37 58 231 39 56 36 38 41 40 70 41 62 72 36 36 37 70 39 77 43 13 36 30 39 36 36 48 36 72 73 40 38 55 44 36 40 36 25 36 36 35 37 39 36 69 36 38 44 37 58 36 36 56 36 39 37 56 56 37 51 57 52 36 60 38 39 36 50 36 39 34 69 35 36 70 37 36 36 39 36 40 41 38 36 38 38 29 36 35 39 56 44 39 36 39 63 37 39 36 51 57 38 38 40 36 37 13 37 51 36 41 36 64 35 35 27 36 44 17 56 39 36 40 36 49 52 39 30 37 39 36 39 64 38 56 46 48 31 36 36 65 35 39 30 39 58 39 63
Last total 615 1532 3780 1537 3818 2972 3227 1119 5616 8038 10973 2093 5066 2659 4044 3888 3643 5833 43381 3420 10220 5509 2706 15759 2492 7588 1746 30529 1951 1774 7293 1891 4343 16151 1615 6101 2482 2265 3526 4958 10374 8622 2013 3984 2885 3602 2767 1781 4189 6650 2865 1701 2477 9569 9506 2875 1350 1273 4041 2508 1215 1328 3912 1015 20374 9418 1412 1596 7147 2296 3663 2951 1396 8377 1314 12742 3440 2961 11406 8760 743 1781 1622 2400 3883 1787 10466 3986 2405 1328 1753 964 2188 7482 3020 1480 3096 2819 1525 1430 2331 966 2583 8049 3707 2532 1213 3118 1801 5220 2362 4912 1785 4046 2225 5149 1627 3786 5690 1093 4251 1043 2009 8103 2615 2127 2498 7032 2689 1739 6164 2155 4027 2125 1002 4060 2865 2016 2262 11106 3862 20263 8019 6227 4359 37304 18832 1060 4884 2873 3690 24713 6737 4030 643 994 32499 3132 8701 1293 1036 4069 769 886 2068 5987 4610 1407 1998 3225 16216 4811 8686 998 3034 5511 1704 2537 5176 744 4490 7204 1905 2499 6230 9207 1963 17691 3726 2691 15339 3652 5109 5083 4223 4865 7599 3143 9015 4815 2145 2343 2159 3203 1048 13325 1304 3508 1118 11709 2275 1990 3451 1692 535 784 13878 13287 3143 1677 10816 2253 1829 26584 6104 4458 6375 1655 1363 1543 3256 6752 627 2008 2771 2264 1665 1625 1933 3881 1765 3802 6293 4194 3160 5557 2011 2237 7943 4323 2885 1304 11021 8046 10491 2094 1540 11679 1530 3856 5789 4278 10785 2359 1359 1035 4483 1812 1585 1119 4866 1687 3813 2366 2006 479 7952 9007 1656 1258 1666 14405 10142 6689 6042 8583 3379 2304 1795 1976 1528 1968 1856 474 4821 2060 1513 1706 4427 17411 5583 1821 2635 10276 1936 2485 9043 1996 1141 2016 2830 3519 2183 5836
Last daily increment 6 10 35 21 39 112 63 10 128 122 68 10 212 22 59 21 49 122 327 28 60 32 21 67 58 40 40 130 63 15 102 46 41 104 26 151 33 64 14 46 56 51 12 59 35 112 18 71 103 32 84 15 36 55 55 16 11 38 34 28 4 10 17 5 137 107 11 29 127 28 29 51 14 65 9 85 30 117 93 93 16 21 10 46 36 12 67 53 26 13 9 7 29 189 79 28 27 14 16 18 69 49 17 37 32 51 11 66 31 83 36 25 4 60 20 98 48 22 106 19 32 52 48 219 14 40 25 110 26 23 81 22 20 33 3 69 41 13 21 76 75 112 18 116 26 169 102 21 104 20 55 61 90 116 18 4 170 17 241 30 19 90 12 10 19 56 95 12 10 40 63 38 157 16 20 26 28 37 40 12 50 35 28 25 89 98 23 66 29 21 48 33 27 79 22 59 47 48 194 27 11 36 20 31 5 74 41 19 50 77 22 23 21 26 7 2 58 87 25 17 34 23 33 112 48 86 56 22 16 28 43 71 1 17 35 21 18 24 21 21 43 28 81 27 94 117 34 34 34 90 41 23 43 46 94 14 13 64 19 90 136 32 20 16 22 5 44 22 11 8 70 23 130 84 7 3 168 26 43 21 6 90 66 168 107 38 38 34 17 41 20 29 26 8 36 42 11 21 52 78 57 15 30 20 43 49 111 12 9 31 55 19 19 14
Last week 27 50 167 114 173 449 331 60 637 607 271 79 913 137 215 160 222 601 1886 197 311 175 133 353 231 223 206 759 294 90 532 243 158 472 119 654 112 295 108 218 346 298 76 282 156 607 92 203 435 193 383 96 127 314 325 112 73 127 208 155 18 58 80 28 700 448 53 95 648 211 176 309 64 356 45 483 143 505 514 509 66 131 66 184 196 96 337 258 161 60 62 32 142 864 383 115 110 93 93 100 347 107 57 151 154 219 90 429 113 560 146 143 37 211 125 532 179 112 524 88 186 270 179 1070 72 188 96 528 120 125 408 84 124 221 13 307 181 62 137 412 370 593 126 439 103 877 739 53 434 132 423 392 536 665 102 35 807 106 1395 108 80 429 55 50 114 237 505 63 115 162 276 201 921 78 96 150 121 239 238 54 227 213 83 119 434 415 147 409 185 165 306 182 188 400 137 313 242 275 962 170 85 143 91 193 31 384 174 124 180 419 118 179 74 102 40 33 287 512 144 86 157 86 180 618 220 375 267 96 101 102 182 335 13 92 195 90 106 93 131 164 163 150 350 171 476 465 177 160 179 275 158 76 276 245 611 76 85 382 116 364 810 200 170 88 140 51 188 123 37 70 496 114 529 401 41 20 815 182 224 89 77 456 413 871 435 218 215 216 91 167 82 133 138 36 127 199 45 87 245 493 283 51 143 166 200 214 576 59 49 91 246 95 92 104
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 68 75 75 68 27
Low between peaks 27 2 1 6 14 7 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-09 to 2020-12-15

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-08 615 1532 3780 1537 3818 2972 3227 1119 5616 8038 10973 2093 5066 2659 4044 3888 3643 5833 43381 3420 10220 5509 2706 15759 2492 7588 1746 30529 1951 1774 7293 1891 4343 16151 1615 6101 2482 2265 3526 4958 10374 8622 2013 3984 2885 3602 2767 1781 4189 6650 2865 1701 2477 9569 9506 2875 1350 1273 4041 2508 1215 1328 3912 1015 20374 9418 1412 1596 7147 2296 3663 2951 1396 8377 1314 12742 3440 2961 11406 8760 743 1781 1622 2400 3883 1787 10466 3986 2405 1328 1753 964 2188 7482 3020 1480 3096 2819 1525 1430 2331 966 2583 8049 3707 2532 1213 3118 1801 5220 2362 4912 1785 4046 2225 5149 1627 3786 5690 1093 4251 1043 2009 8103 2615 2127 2498 7032 2689 1739 6164 2155 4027 2125 1002 4060 2865 2016 2262 11106 3862 20263 8019 6227 4359 37304 18832 1060 4884 2873 3690 24713 6737 4030 643 994 32499 3132 8701 1293 1036 4069 769 886 2068 5987 4610 1407 1998 3225 16216 4811 8686 998 3034 5511 1704 2537 5176 744 4490 7204 1905 2499 6230 9207 1963 17691 3726 2691 15339 3652 5109 5083 4223 4865 7599 3143 9015 4815 2145 2343 2159 3203 1048 13325 1304 3508 1118 11709 2275 1990 3451 1692 535 784 13878 13287 3143 1677 10816 2253 1829 26584 6104 4458 6375 1655 1363 1543 3256 6752 627 2008 2771 2264 1665 1625 1933 3881 1765 3802 6293 4194 3160 5557 2011 2237 7943 4323 2885 1304 11021 8046 10491 2094 1540 11679 1530 3856 5789 4278 10785 2359 1359 1035 4483 1812 1585 1119 4866 1687 3813 2366 2006 479 7952 9007 1656 1258 1666 14405 10142 6689 6042 8583 3379 2304 1795 1976 1528 1968 1856 474 4821 2060 1513 1706 4427 17411 5583 1821 2635 10276 1936 2485 9043 1996 1141 2016 2830 3519 2183 5836
2020-12-09 621 1541 3829 1558 3880 3033 3285 1130 5740 8158 11010 2102 5248 2675 4082 3915 3658 5923 43850 3450 10280 5569 2726 15870 2535 7648 1796 30760 1951 1787 7364 1920 4361 16410 1635 6237 2506 2319 3558 4982 10470 8691 2025 3992 2920 3695 2783 1799 4266 6683 2887 1716 2493 9669 9531 2894 1360 1295 4072 2531 1218 1338 3928 1021 20490 9513 1422 1610 7282 2317 3703 2965 1408 8416 1322 12860 3457 3051 11580 8841 753 1813 1633 2430 3900 1802 10640 4023 2426 1339 1764 964 2198 7660 3074 1497 3130 2836 1529 1445 2394 997 2602 8077 3729 2566 1229 3185 1816 5220 2384 4961 1792 4079 2245 5246 1643 3807 5690 1104 4294 1085 2102 8440 2635 2158 2510 7118 2711 1755 6229 2170 4072 2143 1012 4105 2891 2029 2282 11220 3914 20530 8021 6232 4394 37590 19010 1069 4884 2920 3741 24800 6805 4197 668 1000 32710 3173 8950 1308 1045 4138 776 893 2088 6036 4692 1419 2010 3270 16270 4858 8787 1010 3051 5553 1722 2575 5227 750 4548 7224 1921 2525 6289 9316 1970 17760 3759 2714 15480 3680 5169 5168 4250 4911 7622 3174 9153 4841 2151 2364 2173 3214 1055 13420 1336 3521 1126 11830 2296 2017 3468 1704 540 790 13970 13470 3164 1692 10880 2269 1854 26780 6138 4517 6435 1670 1376 1557 3274 6830 630 2025 2805 2291 1707 1641 1948 3908 1815 3839 6360 4217 3246 5618 2034 2292 7987 4398 2921 1317 11070 8091 10600 2105 1550 11740 1548 3955 5886 4352 10870 2404 1377 1043 4547 1812 1594 1136 4951 1705 3847 2429 2015 502 7962 9043 1694 1270 1678 14570 10270 6879 6176 8632 3414 2329 1808 2004 1543 1987 1856 479 4824 2097 1523 1719 4450 17630 5627 1833 2657 10300 1978 2535 9199 2010 1142 2034 2912 3548 2199 5852
2020-12-10 625 1550 3856 1577 3911 3108 3342 1140 5840 8259 11030 2111 5424 2692 4119 3944 3671 6007 44140 3479 10330 5603 2745 15930 2577 7684 1843 30890 1983 1799 7432 1948 4378 16540 1654 6367 2530 2375 3572 5014 10510 8719 2037 4032 2942 3786 2798 1818 4339 6715 2947 1730 2509 9717 9574 2911 1370 1314 4101 2553 1221 1348 3943 1027 20610 9558 1430 1623 7411 2336 3741 3018 1420 8455 1330 12950 3484 3137 11660 8918 762 1835 1644 2458 3917 1815 10710 4064 2446 1349 1774 965 2207 7830 3127 1512 3152 2852 1534 1460 2456 1023 2620 8104 3743 2599 1243 3251 1831 5274 2405 4986 1799 4110 2266 5342 1664 3828 5744 1114 4327 1126 2160 8760 2654 2187 2519 7202 2732 1770 6291 2184 4098 2182 1021 4146 2915 2042 2302 11270 3965 20660 8031 6288 4413 37750 19140 1078 4948 2948 3794 24870 6868 4341 694 1006 32860 3182 9180 1322 1054 4205 783 899 2106 6082 4771 1430 2021 3294 16320 4887 8908 1021 3068 5592 1739 2612 5276 757 4579 7243 1936 2549 6345 9382 1981 17830 3791 2737 15540 3708 5202 5219 4275 4953 7648 3203 9286 4865 2156 2384 2186 3236 1061 13490 1367 3534 1146 11900 2315 2043 3484 1716 545 796 14030 13560 3183 1706 10900 2284 1878 26870 6169 4574 6478 1685 1389 1570 3292 6879 633 2041 2838 2314 1728 1656 1962 3935 1863 3855 6420 4241 3329 5697 2055 2334 8024 4446 2944 1330 11120 8136 10710 2116 1560 11780 1565 4026 6015 4391 10890 2425 1395 1050 4606 1831 1602 1152 5033 1721 3917 2493 2024 506 8097 9060 1732 1282 1690 14650 10330 7063 6289 8669 3448 2353 1821 2031 1555 2005 1873 487 4839 2132 1532 1731 4491 17750 5670 1844 2679 10330 2016 2574 9305 2023 1145 2051 2964 3563 2214 5868
2020-12-11 630 1559 3873 1596 3948 3186 3400 1150 5945 8367 11060 2120 5606 2708 4155 3977 3697 6093 44460 3508 10390 5644 2764 16000 2619 7720 1893 31010 2024 1812 7501 1977 4396 16640 1674 6499 2553 2431 3584 5046 10550 8744 2049 4069 2964 3880 2813 1839 4415 6747 3000 1744 2527 9765 9625 2929 1381 1333 4130 2576 1225 1357 3959 1033 20720 9622 1439 1635 7542 2355 3780 3058 1431 8494 1338 13010 3508 3226 11760 8997 771 1847 1654 2486 3934 1829 10760 4110 2467 1359 1784 966 2216 8003 3182 1528 3169 2868 1539 1474 2519 1049 2637 8131 3756 2632 1258 3315 1846 5325 2427 5024 1806 4142 2281 5439 1690 3848 5808 1124 4363 1168 2207 9070 2673 2216 2540 7286 2753 1785 6353 2198 4118 2221 1029 4188 2940 2055 2322 11340 4018 20760 8034 6357 4426 37900 19260 1086 5026 2973 3851 24930 6930 4482 712 1013 33010 3199 9410 1337 1062 4273 790 905 2125 6128 4853 1441 2033 3319 16370 4917 9054 1033 3085 5633 1756 2649 5325 764 4602 7263 1952 2572 6402 9437 1985 17900 3823 2760 15600 3736 5233 5279 4301 4998 7672 3232 9421 4890 2161 2404 2199 3270 1068 13570 1399 3548 1167 11970 2335 2069 3501 1727 550 801 14080 13650 3203 1719 10920 2299 1902 26970 6201 4630 6524 1700 1402 1583 3311 6922 636 2057 2872 2337 1745 1671 1976 3963 1911 3882 6483 4260 3417 5773 2077 2371 8059 4511 2971 1342 11170 8180 10830 2128 1571 11840 1582 4111 6138 4431 10910 2443 1413 1057 4664 1846 1610 1167 5116 1738 3998 2559 2033 510 8215 9080 1771 1293 1702 14730 10400 7297 6425 8700 3482 2378 1833 2058 1566 2023 1892 497 4853 2168 1542 1744 4521 17870 5713 1855 2701 10350 2053 2620 9431 2036 1147 2068 3026 3578 2229 5883
2020-12-12 635 1568 3885 1614 3973 3262 3457 1160 6045 8442 11090 2129 5786 2724 4190 3994 3702 6176 44720 3536 10420 5677 2783 16030 2661 7755 1943 31100 2068 1824 7568 2004 4413 16750 1693 6628 2575 2469 3601 5074 10580 8758 2061 4101 2984 3972 2827 1858 4488 6779 3036 1758 2543 9792 9662 2946 1391 1350 4159 2598 1227 1367 3974 1039 20830 9649 1448 1647 7671 2372 3818 3097 1443 8532 1345 13070 3526 3314 11830 9074 780 1861 1665 2513 3949 1843 10810 4147 2487 1369 1794 968 2224 8172 3236 1543 3181 2884 1545 1489 2582 1074 2654 8157 3773 2664 1272 3379 1860 5338 2448 5047 1813 4172 2292 5535 1709 3868 5837 1134 4381 1209 2218 9300 2692 2245 2547 7369 2773 1800 6414 2212 4133 2247 1038 4228 2964 2068 2341 11410 4071 20880 8034 6408 4440 38030 19360 1094 5088 2990 3907 24970 6989 4611 724 1019 33100 3211 9610 1351 1069 4339 796 912 2143 6172 4934 1452 2044 3335 16420 4941 9150 1045 3101 5672 1773 2685 5374 772 4633 7280 1967 2596 6457 9476 1994 17960 3854 2782 15650 3763 5260 5328 4326 5040 7694 3258 9555 4914 2165 2424 2212 3288 1074 13610 1431 3561 1183 12020 2354 2095 3517 1738 554 807 14120 13740 3221 1733 10940 2314 1925 27040 6231 4685 6558 1714 1414 1596 3329 6955 639 2073 2904 2359 1754 1686 1990 3989 1958 3904 6543 4276 3503 5829 2098 2398 8078 4557 2996 1354 11220 8224 10930 2139 1581 11860 1599 4194 6245 4460 10930 2459 1431 1064 4722 1860 1619 1183 5197 1754 4052 2625 2042 516 8318 9094 1809 1305 1713 14800 10450 7481 6497 8722 3515 2402 1846 2084 1573 2041 1900 499 4862 2204 1551 1755 4542 17950 5755 1866 2722 10370 2089 2656 9540 2048 1150 2085 3082 3589 2243 5899
2020-12-13 640 1576 3914 1633 3999 3341 3515 1170 6172 8520 11100 2138 5973 2740 4225 4007 3703 6259 45000 3565 10470 5709 2802 16080 2703 7785 1994 31200 2092 1836 7636 2032 4430 16840 1712 6760 2598 2521 3613 5102 10620 8767 2073 4131 3002 4066 2842 1874 4563 6810 3086 1771 2561 9831 9701 2963 1401 1368 4187 2619 1230 1376 3989 1044 20940 9678 1456 1658 7802 2389 3855 3136 1454 8569 1353 13130 3535 3404 11900 9151 788 1879 1675 2541 3964 1856 10840 4177 2506 1379 1804 972 2232 8345 3291 1557 3194 2899 1551 1503 2647 1098 2672 8183 3793 2696 1286 3442 1874 5349 2470 5075 1820 4202 2312 5634 1738 3889 5866 1144 4402 1252 2240 9590 2711 2274 2560 7453 2794 1815 6474 2225 4149 2268 1046 4268 2988 2081 2360 11470 4124 20990 8036 6440 4453 38130 19460 1102 5139 3004 3963 25010 7047 4732 743 1025 33240 3218 9820 1365 1077 4407 803 918 2160 6217 5016 1463 2055 3358 16470 4965 9248 1056 3118 5712 1789 2721 5423 779 4642 7298 1982 2619 6513 9532 1994 18030 3886 2805 15700 3790 5289 5341 4351 5083 7707 3283 9691 4938 2169 2445 2224 3307 1081 13660 1463 3574 1186 12080 2373 2122 3533 1748 559 812 14160 13810 3240 1746 10960 2329 1948 27130 6261 4740 6595 1728 1426 1609 3347 6987 642 2089 2937 2380 1760 1702 2004 4016 2007 3919 6602 4290 3591 5875 2119 2417 8086 4597 3003 1366 11270 8268 11050 2150 1592 11890 1615 4261 6336 4484 10930 2477 1450 1072 4779 1871 1627 1198 5279 1770 4110 2694 2051 519 8412 9097 1849 1316 1725 14860 10520 7662 6590 8745 3548 2427 1858 2109 1584 2059 1909 501 4866 2240 1560 1767 4568 18080 5797 1877 2744 10390 2125 2689 9626 2061 1153 2101 3111 3603 2257 5914
2020-12-14 644 1585 3949 1651 4041 3421 3574 1179 6290 8640 11140 2147 6165 2756 4260 4035 3735 6343 45360 3594 10530 5745 2820 16150 2746 7842 2046 31350 2164 1848 7705 2061 4447 16960 1731 6895 2620 2592 3636 5140 10710 8814 2085 4185 3032 4163 2856 1910 4640 6841 3162 1785 2578 9892 9756 2980 1411 1385 4216 2641 1233 1386 4004 1050 21050 9742 1464 1670 7936 2406 3893 3199 1466 8607 1361 13210 3553 3497 11990 9229 796 1912 1685 2568 3979 1870 10910 4234 2526 1389 1814 976 2240 8522 3346 1572 3214 2915 1557 1518 2714 1123 2689 8210 3834 2728 1300 3506 1889 5402 2491 5099 1827 4232 2332 5734 1779 3909 5927 1153 4433 1295 2275 9950 2730 2304 2578 7537 2814 1830 6535 2239 4182 2308 1054 4308 3011 2094 2380 11560 4178 21130 8045 6527 4470 38320 19590 1110 5241 3037 4020 25080 7105 4885 774 1031 33410 3239 10090 1379 1084 4476 810 924 2178 6261 5099 1475 2066 3388 16520 5001 9418 1067 3134 5751 1806 2758 5472 786 4668 7316 1997 2642 6569 9620 2002 18100 3918 2827 15780 3817 5326 5413 4377 5125 7731 3308 9830 4963 2173 2465 2237 3347 1087 13750 1496 3587 1212 12180 2392 2148 3549 1759 564 818 14220 13890 3258 1760 10990 2343 1971 27260 6292 4796 6648 1743 1438 1622 3365 7046 645 2104 2970 2401 1779 1717 2017 4044 2057 3950 6662 4329 3682 5971 2140 2453 8121 4660 3037 1378 11310 8312 11160 2161 1602 11950 1632 4340 6527 4525 10980 2501 1468 1079 4837 1899 1635 1213 5362 1787 4210 2764 2060 524 8528 9126 1889 1327 1736 14970 10600 7922 6725 8800 3581 2452 1870 2135 1599 2077 1947 506 4892 2277 1569 1779 4621 18210 5839 1888 2765 10430 2161 2733 9748 2073 1156 2118 3171 3619 2271 5929
2020-12-15 649 1594 3978 1670 4072 3504 3634 1189 6418 8757 11200 2156 6364 2772 4295 4057 3782 6427 45670 3622 10580 5773 2839 16220 2790 7877 2099 31470 2217 1860 7774 2090 4464 17040 1750 7032 2643 2653 3650 5180 10770 8869 2097 4234 3060 4262 2871 1959 4718 6873 3217 1799 2595 9956 9806 2998 1421 1402 4245 2663 1236 1396 4019 1056 21160 9836 1473 1682 8072 2422 3931 3244 1477 8645 1368 13300 3576 3593 12080 9307 804 1935 1696 2596 3994 1883 10990 4277 2546 1399 1824 981 2249 8703 3403 1587 3238 2931 1564 1532 2782 1148 2706 8236 3865 2761 1314 3571 1903 5485 2512 5120 1834 4262 2350 5835 1819 3929 6025 1163 4467 1340 2309 10090 2749 2334 2596 7623 2835 1845 6596 2253 4201 2334 1062 4348 3035 2107 2399 11630 4233 21240 8062 6619 4497 38480 19710 1118 5332 3059 4078 25150 7162 5013 794 1037 33560 3258 10330 1394 1092 4546 816 931 2197 6306 5184 1486 2077 3421 16570 5038 9573 1078 3151 5791 1823 2795 5521 794 4715 7334 2012 2666 6625 9711 2022 18160 3949 2850 15830 3844 5355 5470 4402 5168 7775 3333 9971 4987 2178 2485 2250 3377 1094 13810 1530 3600 1253 12250 2411 2175 3565 1770 568 824 14270 13990 3277 1773 11020 2358 1995 27370 6322 4852 6695 1758 1450 1635 3384 7109 648 2120 3003 2422 1798 1732 2031 4071 2108 3977 6721 4354 3775 6028 2161 2485 8156 4725 3071 1390 11360 8356 11270 2172 1613 12000 1649 4410 6650 4557 11010 2514 1487 1086 4895 1918 1643 1229 5445 1803 4337 2837 2069 529 8689 9154 1931 1338 1748 15050 10670 8077 6787 8836 3614 2478 1883 2162 1617 2095 1968 514 4918 2314 1578 1791 4666 18290 5881 1899 2787 10450 2198 2776 9841 2086 1159 2135 3226 3636 2285 5944

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-09 to 2020-12-15

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-08 615 1532 3780 1537 3818 2972 3227 1119 5616 8038 10973 2093 5066 2659 4044 3888 3643 5833 43381 3420 10220 5509 2706 15759 2492 7588 1746 30529 1951 1774 7293 1891 4343 16151 1615 6101 2482 2265 3526 4958 10374 8622 2013 3984 2885 3602 2767 1781 4189 6650 2865 1701 2477 9569 9506 2875 1350 1273 4041 2508 1215 1328 3912 1015 20374 9418 1412 1596 7147 2296 3663 2951 1396 8377 1314 12742 3440 2961 11406 8760 743 1781 1622 2400 3883 1787 10466 3986 2405 1328 1753 964 2188 7482 3020 1480 3096 2819 1525 1430 2331 966 2583 8049 3707 2532 1213 3118 1801 5220 2362 4912 1785 4046 2225 5149 1627 3786 5690 1093 4251 1043 2009 8103 2615 2127 2498 7032 2689 1739 6164 2155 4027 2125 1002 4060 2865 2016 2262 11106 3862 20263 8019 6227 4359 37304 18832 1060 4884 2873 3690 24713 6737 4030 643 994 32499 3132 8701 1293 1036 4069 769 886 2068 5987 4610 1407 1998 3225 16216 4811 8686 998 3034 5511 1704 2537 5176 744 4490 7204 1905 2499 6230 9207 1963 17691 3726 2691 15339 3652 5109 5083 4223 4865 7599 3143 9015 4815 2145 2343 2159 3203 1048 13325 1304 3508 1118 11709 2275 1990 3451 1692 535 784 13878 13287 3143 1677 10816 2253 1829 26584 6104 4458 6375 1655 1363 1543 3256 6752 627 2008 2771 2264 1665 1625 1933 3881 1765 3802 6293 4194 3160 5557 2011 2237 7943 4323 2885 1304 11021 8046 10491 2094 1540 11679 1530 3856 5789 4278 10785 2359 1359 1035 4483 1812 1585 1119 4866 1687 3813 2366 2006 479 7952 9007 1656 1258 1666 14405 10142 6689 6042 8583 3379 2304 1795 1976 1528 1968 1856 474 4821 2060 1513 1706 4427 17411 5583 1821 2635 10276 1936 2485 9043 1996 1141 2016 2830 3519 2183 5836
2020-12-09 620 1542 3810 1556 3850 3059 3282 1130 5751 8179 11020 2102 5239 2682 4084 3907 3684 5946 43690 3447 10280 5539 2728 15820 2542 7626 1786 30660 2004 1789 7395 1934 4374 16240 1637 6221 2503 2326 3546 4990 10440 8669 2024 4030 2913 3704 2781 1819 4274 6683 2929 1717 2501 9630 9551 2891 1362 1297 4071 2535 1217 1337 3923 1020 20500 9497 1421 1613 7260 2327 3694 2997 1409 8439 1322 12820 3459 3054 11490 8855 756 1805 1633 2434 3914 1801 10530 4028 2430 1340 1763 968 2214 7652 3093 1500 3114 2835 1538 1448 2395 987 2594 8067 3730 2569 1231 3183 1819 5298 2386 4935 1790 4085 2245 5244 1660 3806 5769 1107 4282 1093 2059 8313 2630 2160 2513 7126 2706 1756 6234 2171 4050 2154 1005 4112 2896 2028 2283 11170 3930 20380 8033 6298 4374 37460 18950 1071 4953 2896 3772 24780 6823 4161 662 999 32630 3152 8950 1312 1052 4150 780 894 2089 6027 4700 1418 2012 3261 16260 4843 8848 1011 3051 5536 1725 2576 5211 761 4526 7239 1920 2517 6296 9287 1994 17760 3757 2714 15390 3680 5146 5161 4243 4920 7639 3191 9180 4838 2157 2367 2175 3235 1054 13380 1335 3528 1155 11780 2295 2019 3463 1708 541 790 13940 13390 3166 1689 10850 2267 1859 26690 6138 4521 6431 1671 1380 1559 3289 6806 629 2025 2812 2282 1692 1640 1953 3908 1798 3823 6350 4222 3242 5639 2039 2269 7971 4376 2914 1320 11070 8089 10600 2106 1554 11740 1546 3938 5933 4314 10820 2379 1382 1041 4514 1830 1592 1131 4947 1708 3923 2436 2013 486 8081 9030 1696 1275 1681 14490 10210 6863 6146 8622 3409 2340 1810 2001 1543 1989 1876 479 4847 2096 1521 1722 4470 17490 5631 1829 2658 10300 1978 2534 9149 2007 1148 2034 2877 3533 2199 5852
2020-12-10 622 1551 3835 1570 3865 3122 3324 1138 5842 8263 11060 2110 5380 2700 4117 3933 3713 6028 43940 3471 10320 5563 2742 15870 2582 7652 1825 30760 2030 1801 7470 1966 4393 16310 1656 6314 2515 2370 3561 5018 10480 8714 2034 4069 2934 3783 2792 1840 4331 6707 2975 1729 2513 9673 9588 2906 1370 1311 4095 2558 1219 1346 3933 1023 20590 9558 1429 1624 7351 2354 3722 3042 1419 8485 1327 12900 3481 3128 11560 8929 765 1826 1642 2461 3936 1815 10590 4059 2448 1346 1772 970 2232 7785 3139 1513 3135 2849 1548 1465 2447 997 2601 8083 3745 2599 1244 3250 1834 5373 2405 4952 1795 4110 2259 5323 1685 3822 5841 1117 4307 1134 2088 8486 2642 2185 2521 7203 2720 1773 6291 2182 4066 2184 1008 4152 2919 2040 2301 11210 3981 20470 8050 6355 4391 37590 19070 1078 5006 2914 3835 24830 6900 4292 678 1005 32750 3162 9200 1325 1064 4214 788 900 2105 6059 4773 1430 2023 3286 16300 4870 8982 1021 3064 5562 1741 2613 5242 770 4557 7269 1929 2532 6350 9346 2018 17830 3783 2734 15430 3708 5178 5208 4257 4956 7673 3228 9320 4853 2168 2388 2186 3257 1060 13430 1359 3547 1180 11840 2310 2049 3474 1718 546 795 13990 13460 3182 1699 10860 2277 1881 26780 6160 4571 6467 1685 1392 1572 3308 6849 631 2041 2845 2294 1713 1652 1971 3933 1825 3840 6392 4242 3319 5693 2057 2295 8004 4405 2934 1332 11110 8125 10700 2114 1565 11800 1563 3987 6056 4348 10840 2392 1399 1049 4539 1846 1598 1141 5030 1724 3999 2494 2021 490 8188 9052 1728 1286 1692 14550 10270 6989 6211 8653 3433 2368 1821 2024 1555 2007 1892 485 4863 2125 1525 1732 4505 17560 5669 1837 2679 10320 2006 2564 9226 2014 1152 2045 2910 3548 2207 5865
2020-12-11 625 1560 3849 1583 3889 3186 3373 1147 5935 8357 11090 2119 5523 2720 4150 3963 3746 6116 44190 3495 10380 5589 2759 15930 2620 7675 1855 30860 2061 1813 7542 1998 4411 16360 1675 6410 2532 2414 3575 5047 10530 8756 2043 4103 2956 3862 2803 1863 4387 6734 3022 1741 2528 9720 9630 2922 1378 1325 4133 2581 1221 1354 3943 1027 20700 9623 1436 1634 7444 2379 3749 3083 1429 8526 1333 12970 3498 3201 11630 9007 774 1842 1653 2488 3958 1829 10630 4090 2467 1354 1782 972 2250 7921 3189 1528 3147 2864 1558 1481 2500 1012 2609 8098 3760 2629 1257 3321 1848 5447 2424 4974 1801 4134 2272 5424 1712 3838 5920 1127 4332 1176 2116 8646 2652 2210 2534 7286 2733 1787 6348 2193 4081 2216 1010 4191 2942 2053 2320 11260 4031 20550 8064 6417 4403 37720 19170 1084 5067 2929 3901 24880 6973 4421 691 1011 32860 3175 9440 1339 1076 4278 796 906 2120 6088 4849 1442 2033 3311 16330 4896 9132 1030 3074 5588 1757 2650 5274 777 4587 7295 1940 2547 6404 9397 2039 17900 3809 2755 15470 3735 5209 5267 4270 4992 7706 3268 9470 4869 2179 2408 2198 3288 1065 13500 1382 3566 1207 11900 2324 2079 3486 1729 550 800 14020 13530 3197 1709 10890 2286 1903 26870 6181 4622 6503 1698 1405 1585 3328 6889 634 2056 2875 2306 1731 1665 1985 3960 1850 3860 6431 4260 3393 5744 2076 2318 8034 4439 2955 1344 11140 8159 10800 2124 1576 11850 1580 4047 6179 4381 10870 2402 1422 1057 4565 1860 1604 1151 5113 1740 4084 2555 2027 496 8309 9075 1760 1296 1702 14620 10330 7158 6291 8681 3455 2397 1832 2047 1567 2024 1907 493 4878 2153 1531 1741 4535 17630 5707 1843 2698 10350 2034 2599 9318 2023 1157 2055 2948 3562 2215 5880
2020-12-12 628 1568 3863 1597 3907 3250 3416 1156 6025 8421 11130 2126 5666 2737 4182 3980 3773 6185 44420 3518 10410 5613 2772 15960 2656 7698 1883 30950 2095 1824 7614 2029 4429 16410 1694 6505 2543 2455 3591 5073 10560 8793 2053 4135 2975 3941 2811 1883 4442 6758 3064 1752 2538 9748 9665 2937 1386 1338 4156 2603 1223 1362 3952 1031 20770 9680 1444 1642 7534 2401 3776 3124 1438 8564 1340 13030 3513 3275 11690 9073 783 1857 1660 2514 3979 1838 10670 4120 2485 1360 1790 974 2267 8054 3240 1538 3157 2878 1569 1492 2554 1023 2615 8113 3777 2659 1270 3386 1863 5512 2443 4990 1806 4158 2284 5504 1737 3852 5967 1136 4355 1218 2133 8775 2661 2233 2541 7358 2745 1800 6405 2205 4095 2242 1013 4231 2964 2065 2336 11300 4086 20620 8077 6470 4415 37820 19270 1090 5112 2943 3966 24920 7047 4532 704 1017 32940 3188 9650 1352 1088 4341 802 912 2135 6116 4924 1453 2044 3325 16370 4922 9264 1040 3087 5613 1772 2688 5305 786 4614 7316 1949 2561 6457 9442 2060 17960 3832 2776 15510 3760 5235 5314 4283 5029 7737 3303 9620 4884 2189 2427 2209 3301 1070 13530 1405 3585 1226 11950 2338 2104 3497 1739 554 804 14050 13590 3210 1719 10900 2295 1925 26950 6202 4672 6532 1712 1416 1596 3347 6925 636 2072 2903 2317 1743 1674 1997 3986 1871 3880 6464 4276 3454 5792 2094 2339 8055 4467 2975 1356 11180 8191 10890 2133 1590 11890 1596 4098 6292 4412 10890 2410 1437 1063 4590 1873 1610 1161 5181 1755 4150 2614 2033 502 8390 9094 1792 1306 1711 14670 10380 7290 6343 8706 3477 2428 1843 2063 1578 2041 1919 497 4889 2182 1537 1750 4561 17670 5743 1848 2716 10370 2062 2627 9383 2031 1161 2066 2986 3575 2223 5894
2020-12-13 630 1577 3883 1610 3930 3316 3457 1165 6137 8481 11160 2133 5804 2753 4215 3994 3793 6246 44670 3542 10440 5636 2785 16010 2692 7724 1910 31050 2119 1835 7682 2061 4446 16460 1713 6601 2556 2499 3606 5099 10610 8831 2062 4169 2994 4021 2818 1904 4491 6780 3099 1764 2547 9787 9698 2952 1394 1352 4178 2626 1225 1371 3961 1034 20850 9736 1451 1649 7621 2421 3804 3162 1447 8607 1345 13080 3524 3351 11750 9135 792 1875 1666 2540 4001 1851 10710 4147 2504 1368 1797 977 2285 8193 3290 1548 3167 2892 1579 1503 2608 1033 2622 8132 3796 2689 1283 3449 1877 5581 2462 5009 1812 4180 2297 5570 1765 3864 6005 1144 4378 1263 2150 8956 2669 2255 2552 7415 2757 1812 6462 2216 4108 2264 1015 4271 2987 2078 2357 11330 4135 20690 8090 6510 4425 37900 19360 1097 5151 2955 4026 24960 7120 4647 717 1020 33060 3201 9890 1365 1100 4402 809 919 2150 6143 4992 1465 2054 3347 16400 4950 9395 1050 3097 5639 1788 2726 5334 791 4638 7340 1959 2574 6511 9499 2077 18020 3854 2798 15550 3785 5259 5346 4298 5065 7763 3337 9770 4900 2200 2442 2221 3317 1076 13560 1429 3603 1242 12000 2352 2127 3506 1749 559 808 14080 13650 3220 1727 10920 2305 1948 27040 6224 4722 6566 1725 1427 1605 3367 6961 639 2087 2929 2329 1754 1686 2009 4009 1891 3900 6493 4294 3510 5822 2112 2351 8065 4496 2987 1368 11220 8226 10980 2142 1599 11930 1611 4146 6395 4443 10910 2423 1452 1068 4612 1885 1616 1169 5240 1771 4218 2673 2040 506 8478 9110 1821 1315 1719 14720 10450 7390 6392 8732 3497 2456 1854 2078 1590 2058 1929 501 4895 2211 1541 1760 4591 17750 5780 1854 2735 10380 2086 2648 9436 2039 1165 2077 3015 3589 2232 5906
2020-12-14 634 1586 3914 1626 3956 3384 3503 1174 6240 8563 11200 2139 5961 2770 4248 4013 3822 6325 44970 3566 10510 5667 2801 16070 2743 7762 1941 31180 2161 1846 7744 2091 4465 16540 1732 6704 2570 2545 3626 5129 10690 8885 2072 4208 3022 4102 2829 1937 4545 6803 3143 1777 2559 9841 9733 2968 1402 1365 4208 2650 1227 1379 3972 1038 20940 9797 1459 1657 7716 2452 3832 3213 1458 8651 1351 13170 3542 3432 11840 9212 801 1903 1674 2566 4022 1866 10760 4183 2522 1377 1804 980 2301 8335 3342 1568 3185 2907 1589 1518 2663 1043 2632 8157 3826 2720 1296 3522 1892 5654 2480 5027 1817 4204 2311 5644 1799 3878 6056 1153 4403 1309 2164 9159 2680 2283 2564 7487 2771 1824 6520 2227 4127 2296 1018 4311 3008 2091 2376 11390 4190 20790 8112 6573 4447 38010 19470 1103 5209 2979 4086 25020 7192 4793 734 1027 33190 3217 10220 1378 1112 4470 819 925 2165 6176 5069 1477 2065 3382 16430 4979 9558 1059 3110 5669 1803 2764 5367 801 4675 7379 1969 2588 6566 9571 2099 18090 3873 2819 15600 3813 5294 5410 4313 5098 7793 3377 9930 4915 2211 2463 2232 3344 1081 13660 1454 3623 1262 12100 2367 2156 3516 1759 564 813 14120 13710 3236 1738 10940 2318 1970 27160 6246 4772 6608 1739 1441 1615 3386 7015 641 2103 2971 2341 1769 1697 2021 4036 1914 3926 6541 4317 3573 5876 2131 2370 8097 4532 3014 1380 11260 8262 11090 2152 1610 11980 1631 4201 6549 4478 10940 2441 1469 1075 4637 1903 1622 1180 5333 1787 4297 2735 2047 514 8562 9143 1851 1324 1730 14800 10530 7538 6460 8770 3522 2483 1866 2110 1603 2076 1948 507 4914 2241 1546 1773 4630 17830 5820 1860 2756 10410 2117 2674 9513 2047 1169 2087 3051 3608 2243 5919
2020-12-15 636 1596 3937 1642 3977 3453 3562 1183 6342 8641 11250 2146 6121 2791 4282 4031 3859 6412 45250 3590 10560 5692 2817 16130 2791 7786 1971 31300 2185 1859 7806 2127 4482 16590 1751 6798 2584 2592 3643 5160 10750 8946 2081 4242 3044 4185 2838 1965 4600 6827 3182 1788 2569 9900 9770 2983 1410 1379 4235 2673 1229 1387 3982 1042 21030 9877 1466 1665 7811 2476 3859 3253 1468 8694 1357 13260 3559 3514 11910 9282 811 1924 1682 2593 4045 1876 10820 4213 2541 1383 1812 984 2318 8475 3388 1581 3203 2921 1599 1531 2720 1057 2641 8179 3849 2751 1310 3593 1906 5734 2499 5045 1822 4229 2324 5724 1830 3896 6118 1163 4428 1356 2184 9296 2689 2304 2575 7576 2784 1839 6579 2239 4143 2321 1021 4352 3031 2104 2393 11440 4246 20890 8131 6636 4474 38150 19590 1110 5260 2997 4150 25070 7274 4927 749 1033 33320 3233 10520 1392 1125 4532 826 931 2180 6204 5148 1489 2076 3410 16470 5008 9711 1069 3123 5701 1819 2803 5402 807 4709 7411 1980 2600 6621 9644 2123 18160 3898 2841 15650 3839 5328 5464 4328 5130 7831 3416 10080 4931 2223 2486 2244 3365 1087 13710 1479 3642 1293 12170 2381 2186 3530 1769 568 817 14150 13790 3248 1749 10960 2332 1993 27270 6268 4823 6643 1752 1452 1627 3401 7067 644 2119 3010 2353 1785 1709 2032 4065 1949 3946 6578 4333 3639 5918 2149 2391 8130 4567 3040 1392 11300 8293 11180 2163 1620 12030 1650 4243 6668 4515 10980 2451 1484 1081 4661 1916 1628 1191 5413 1802 4383 2795 2053 523 8649 9170 1884 1334 1740 14870 10600 7661 6509 8803 3544 2514 1877 2149 1617 2094 1960 514 4930 2271 1552 1786 4661 17900 5854 1867 2776 10420 2157 2698 9577 2053 1173 2099 3088 3625 2251 5935

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.