COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-11

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	11-03	11-04	10-27	11-08	10-21	--	--	10-31	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	11-02	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-04	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-15	11-02	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	10-12	11-02	--	--	11-03	--	10-04	09-27	10-25	11-03	11-01	--	10-24	--	11-06	--	--	10-13	--	11-02	11-02	10-29	11-03	10-19	11-02	--	10-11	--	10-30	11-02	11-02	11-02	11-03	11-02	11-01	10-18	--	--	11-03	--	11-03	10-25	11-02	10-14	11-02	--	11-02	11-02	--	11-01	11-02	11-03	11-02	11-02	10-31	11-02	11-02	11-05	10-20	11-02	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-30	10-11	11-02	10-11	--	11-02	--	11-02	--	10-28	09-27	10-25	10-14	11-03	--	--	10-31	--	--	11-03	--	11-02	--	11-03	--	10-28	--	11-02	11-02	--	11-03	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-13	11-02	--	11-02	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	11-03	--	11-03	11-29	09-29	--	--	--	10-26	09-22	10-26	--	11-03	--	--	11-08	11-01	--	11-02	--	10-22	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-03	--	11-02	10-14	10-25	11-02	11-02	11-02	11-13	11-04	11-02	11-05	11-03	11-02	11-03	--	09-30	11-02	11-02	10-25	11-03	10-11	--	11-02	11-03	10-13	--	--	11-02	11-02	11-01	10-13	--	11-01	10-18	--	10-12	--	10-17	11-02	--	10-09	--	11-02	11-03	10-20	11-02	11-02	11-04	09-30	11-03	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	11-02	11-03	11-03	10-26	11-02	11-04	11-02	11-02	11-09	11-02	10-25	--	10-13	11-02	11-02	11-03	11-02	--	--	--	11-02	10-09	11-03	11-03	11-02	10-18	10-12	11-02	11-02	10-29	11-02	--	--	--	11-03	10-18	11-02	--	10-21	11-03	11-30	11-05	11-06	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	11-01	11-02	10-29	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	--	11-08	--	11-01	--	10-31	10-05	--	10-31	10-13	--	10-21	11-06	11-03	11-03	10-04	--	--	11-03	11-02	11-08	11-03	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment	9	31	82	49	62			21			191	28		37	77	72			631	64	163	99	55	235	49	138		441		50			71	330			44		57	70	159	145	51		52		40			131		28	37	129	151	53	26		62		23	21	71	21	303	155	21	30			55		30	165	30	249	58		257	124		38	28	39	118	32	229	78	33	18	32	17					55	75	30			63	41	130	71		25		30		34	71	32	55	44			66			77		44		49		43		54	24		30	59		18		34	31		298		360	152		85	542	260	14		62	96	529				14	610	61		32			19	10		96		24	40	55	392	88		22	51	161	28	50	110	20	93	125	36	61	92	134		609	69	42	260	52	64		85	92	101			98	45	38	41		20	197		64		199	45		67		8	19	242	235	89	30	184	37		435	114		97	23	19	27	66	143	13	29	45	77	45	33		70	36	77	94	79				32	118	86	58	20	183	125	205	32	33	168				68	177	47		15	96	24	20	20					48			138		19	27	261	166			135	58			38		29		8	91		22	25		320	89	33	42	137			143	37	16	33		65	42	130
Days since peak	38	37	45	33	51			41			59	68		39	46	48			37	39	54	61	45	60	26	39		43		57			60	39			38		68	75	47	38	40		48		35			59		39	39	43	38	53	39		61		42	39	39	39	38	39	40	54			38		38	47	39	58	39		39	39		40	39	38	39	39	41	39	39	36	52	39					61	75	39			11	61	39	61		39		39		44	75	47	58	38			41			38		39		38		44		39	39		38	61		38		59	39		39		45	73		65	75	39	38		38	12	73				46	80	46		38			33	40		39		50	39	75	76	38		39	58	47	39	39	39	28	37	39	36	38	39	38		72	39	39	47	38	61		39	38	59			39	39	40	59		40	54		60		55	39		63		39	38	52	39	39	37	72	38		73	40		39	39	38	38	46	39	37	39	39	32	39	47		59	39	39	38	39				39	63	38	38	39	54	60	39	39	43	39				38	54	39		51	38	11	36	35					47			59		40	39	43	39			52	55			33		40		41	67		41	59		51	35	38	38	68			38	39	33	38		61	38	66
Last total	646	1554	3881	1631	3917	3338	3477	1167	6201	8522	11135	2127	5695	2751	4155	3959	3873	6429	44499	3514	10371	5626	2798	15952	2629	7738	1883	30996	2248	1854	7699	2060	4503	16368	1705	6688	2571	2544	3593	5080	10527	8759	2084	4224	2997	4040	2823	1943	4557	6793	3154	1738	2597	9803	9713	2939	1394	1350	4137	2621	1219	1368	4004	1051	20728	9673	1432	1674	7711	2457	3733	3208	1451	8602	1331	13024	3517	3250	11720	9168	789	1880	1685	2527	4006	1861	10682	4168	2512	1395	1799	988	2311	8269	3386	1582	3156	2864	1587	1504	2578	1047	2618	8130	3817	2667	1269	3376	1883	5696	2489	4979	1805	4234	2275	5549	1749	3849	6105	1143	4336	1271	2120	8880	2663	2278	2558	7395	2771	1801	6541	2213	4077	2256	1020	4368	2979	2091	2381	11317	4143	20599	8094	6676	4483	37803	19233	1121	5311	2951	3846	24933	7038	4509	707	1015	32935	3274	9681	1332	1106	4386	801	925	2171	6116	5051	1491	2045	3334	16440	4918	9476	1063	3083	5598	1788	2646	5287	774	4603	7312	1943	2553	6441	9441	2053	17912	3824	2742	15548	3811	5217	5368	4294	5087	7772	3298	9774	4896	2181	2465	2212	3431	1071	13529	1477	3583	1260	12027	2363	2078	3528	1800	560	802	14057	13598	3231	1767	10896	2300	1983	26944	6246	4717	6547	1723	1429	1630	3419	6989	649	2099	2893	2332	1743	1690	2014	3968	1863	3878	6474	4299	3461	5969	2128	2350	8056	4451	2978	1364	11147	8207	10899	2156	1632	11854	1650	4209	6310	4408	10875	2396	1465	1079	4606	1885	1643	1170	5195	1805	4285	2651	2029	511	8591	9148	1835	1329	1744	14645	10386	7274	6424	8733	3475	2440	1896	2100	1603	2061	1982	502	4915	2195	1571	1783	4658	17668	5771	1867	2741	10390	2071	2664	9378	2010	1188	2073	3023	3590	2238	5897
Last daily increment	7	5	33	31	32	109	80	15	201	176	63	5	206	30	32	20	81	221	358	34	50	34	43	59	40	64	51	135	87	33	154	57	56	68	35	183	12	105	28	38	50	36	29	88	31	133	24	54	135	62	95	7	41	74	84	17	14	22	38	45	1	14	38	18	115	76	5	25	180	48	22	82	16	55	3	88	25	97	100	158	14	24	23	37	25	19	52	58	42	16	10	10	33	269	133	47	14	19	21	25	71	23	14	20	29	41	23	91	33	150	42	21	7	61	20	145	40	23	170	20	28	85	32	269	18	41	9	135	31	20	130	31	22	38	10	103	53	30	44	57	96	107	22	152	22	137	116	33	145	21	56	83	111	145	26	10	113	40	353	12	30	81	12	16	41	38	175	27	8	35	68	33	269	24	10	18	38	33	29	13	32	35	11	16	79	78	26	61	31	14	61	59	48	107	18	76	48	67	244	31	10	49	11	79	4	65	61	20	59	84	23	30	17	35	6	5	62	106	36	23	34	20	62	87	39	103	77	23	28	38	29	51	5	33	34	23	20	19	30	25	18	27	65	40	95	144	51	44	26	35	32	24	30	50	150	18	14	49	43	118	195	44	24	16	40	13	33	20	19	21	112	36	183	96	7	9	229	43	51	26	25	65	79	215	114	40	31	49	31	44	27	32	50	14	19	41	15	36	84	89	57	20	41	38	43	66	124	15	15	30	77	16	16	20
Last week	52	52	203	167	198	653	437	84	949	815	312	70	1162	165	237	128	358	923	2089	192	317	193	171	368	279	276	244	834	489	126	712	317	252	470	165	953	140	463	137	241	357	296	107	397	197	780	108	300	648	240	522	95	194	405	381	111	89	158	213	202	12	67	132	49	719	498	53	130	910	285	176	417	78	438	43	519	147	596	583	671	87	166	94	235	224	130	380	319	192	106	74	45	207	1309	605	178	119	107	107	116	444	154	88	167	204	258	117	464	136	761	206	128	37	315	122	676	244	116	689	104	180	384	229	1362	88	260	115	654	142	125	614	111	123	234	24	477	220	103	195	415	491	646	136	699	173	963	791	97	674	139	412	435	577	826	129	28	855	189	1710	94	124	570	64	67	184	258	733	117	99	197	375	215	1287	110	101	171	152	224	226	56	242	237	93	110	437	481	171	454	188	114	377	240	208	513	158	399	273	326	1299	163	75	194	108	339	43	402	272	133	261	555	149	157	91	170	49	35	342	567	173	135	181	99	262	699	278	471	325	119	117	141	245	395	26	136	231	127	124	114	147	164	202	159	396	199	588	675	217	190	191	301	192	107	277	283	736	111	131	364	179	545	944	223	182	91	179	67	212	143	76	82	564	188	802	497	49	37	1079	230	311	131	118	489	436	1048	653	276	228	255	151	222	124	165	217	41	164	242	81	132	374	526	334	79	191	194	249	280	644	60	78	123	329	124	113	117
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																																	75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																																	7	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-12 to 2020-12-18

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-11	646	1554	3881	1631	3917	3338	3477	1167	6201	8522	11135	2127	5695	2751	4155	3959	3873	6429	44499	3514	10371	5626	2798	15952	2629	7738	1883	30996	2248	1854	7699	2060	4503	16368	1705	6688	2571	2544	3593	5080	10527	8759	2084	4224	2997	4040	2823	1943	4557	6793	3154	1738	2597	9803	9713	2939	1394	1350	4137	2621	1219	1368	4004	1051	20728	9673	1432	1674	7711	2457	3733	3208	1451	8602	1331	13024	3517	3250	11720	9168	789	1880	1685	2527	4006	1861	10682	4168	2512	1395	1799	988	2311	8269	3386	1582	3156	2864	1587	1504	2578	1047	2618	8130	3817	2667	1269	3376	1883	5696	2489	4979	1805	4234	2275	5549	1749	3849	6105	1143	4336	1271	2120	8880	2663	2278	2558	7395	2771	1801	6541	2213	4077	2256	1020	4368	2979	2091	2381	11317	4143	20599	8094	6676	4483	37803	19233	1121	5311	2951	3846	24933	7038	4509	707	1015	32935	3274	9681	1332	1106	4386	801	925	2171	6116	5051	1491	2045	3334	16440	4918	9476	1063	3083	5598	1788	2646	5287	774	4603	7312	1943	2553	6441	9441	2053	17912	3824	2742	15548	3811	5217	5368	4294	5087	7772	3298	9774	4896	2181	2465	2212	3431	1071	13529	1477	3583	1260	12027	2363	2078	3528	1800	560	802	14057	13598	3231	1767	10896	2300	1983	26944	6246	4717	6547	1723	1429	1630	3419	6989	649	2099	2893	2332	1743	1690	2014	3968	1863	3878	6474	4299	3461	5969	2128	2350	8056	4451	2978	1364	11147	8207	10899	2156	1632	11854	1650	4209	6310	4408	10875	2396	1465	1079	4606	1885	1643	1170	5195	1805	4285	2651	2029	511	8591	9148	1835	1329	1744	14645	10386	7274	6424	8733	3475	2440	1896	2100	1603	2061	1982	502	4915	2195	1571	1783	4658	17668	5771	1867	2741	10390	2071	2664	9378	2010	1188	2073	3023	3590	2238	5897
2020-12-12	651	1563	3911	1658	3941	3452	3549	1178	6314	8640	11190	2137	5865	2775	4191	3994	3945	6567	44820	3545	10450	5654	2820	16060	2666	7763	1935	31220	2248	1871	7818	2138	4503	16540	1731	6688	2578	2600	3604	5108	10580	8848	2100	4231	3012	4131	2838	1979	4670	6823	3255	1752	2632	9850	9730	2960	1394	1358	4155	2659	1222	1378	4027	1058	20850	9750	1441	1674	7842	2496	3769	3285	1463	8618	1335	13110	3519	3345	11750	9177	801	1890	1697	2528	4041	1877	10740	4197	2537	1408	1811	988	2327	8490	3442	1582	3178	2881	1604	1518	2687	1064	2630	8155	3817	2677	1285	3465	1901	5806	2489	5007	1813	4299	2297	5647	1749	3855	6225	1154	4367	1360	2120	9090	2678	2309	2558	7475	2791	1818	6606	2213	4098	2279	1024	4478	2979	2108	2401	11370	4237	20790	8117	6802	4486	37990	19390	1121	5440	2970	3902	24990	7177	4611	729	1021	33030	3282	9960	1346	1142	4438	810	933	2208	6149	5190	1520	2059	3356	16500	4967	9660	1077	3098	5636	1788	2684	5307	783	4603	7363	1957	2572	6460	9501	2078	17980	3856	2762	15610	3846	5254	5444	4309	5087	7802	3354	9960	4925	2191	2507	2226	3431	1077	13650	1524	3605	1286	12050	2382	2125	3544	1821	566	808	14100	13740	3254	1770	10900	2315	2009	27090	6248	4857	6577	1726	1444	1630	3419	7042	653	2118	2929	2347	1763	1708	2053	3996	1863	3923	6494	4313	3497	6021	2168	2377	8095	4474	3000	1379	11190	8257	11020	2169	1635	11910	1667	4289	6459	4445	10930	2423	1509	1088	4623	1885	1653	1186	5320	1832	4285	2651	2032	526	8798	9187	1886	1345	1744	14700	10510	7445	6424	8750	3502	2489	1915	2131	1625	2061	1993	504	4917	2231	1580	1783	4726	17750	5824	1879	2741	10410	2106	2725	9460	2018	1188	2087	3023	3602	2242	5917
2020-12-13	656	1571	3933	1684	3963	3566	3620	1189	6467	8754	11240	2147	6034	2798	4226	4009	4012	6691	45090	3575	10480	5672	2842	16110	2685	7795	1986	31330	2327	1886	7930	2213	4525	16580	1756	6804	2590	2676	3625	5132	10610	8881	2115	4286	3032	4218	2853	2012	4774	6855	3354	1765	2667	9890	9780	2979	1403	1365	4177	2694	1225	1388	4048	1064	20970	9820	1451	1683	7966	2535	3803	3357	1475	8662	1338	13160	3527	3438	11770	9245	812	1906	1709	2558	4076	1893	10800	4231	2561	1419	1823	994	2341	8710	3534	1599	3193	2897	1619	1527	2794	1080	2642	8169	3838	2707	1300	3550	1919	5913	2508	5029	1821	4358	2319	5784	1781	3863	6330	1164	4398	1450	2140	9370	2693	2338	2568	7551	2810	1834	6699	2221	4118	2304	1027	4578	3004	2123	2421	11420	4327	20890	8128	6919	4500	38060	19490	1124	5559	2978	3957	25040	7271	4723	750	1027	33110	3299	10200	1360	1174	4487	818	941	2244	6182	5318	1545	2072	3378	16570	5014	9840	1091	3105	5673	1801	2721	5327	792	4610	7412	1970	2591	6510	9556	2103	18050	3888	2783	15670	3878	5279	5520	4331	5123	7832	3409	10140	4953	2200	2544	2240	3472	1083	13710	1571	3627	1318	12120	2400	2145	3551	1847	571	813	14140	13810	3276	1780	10900	2330	2046	27160	6280	4957	6617	1736	1459	1640	3441	7094	657	2137	2964	2361	1782	1724	2082	4023	1880	3945	6528	4338	3536	6121	2204	2402	8113	4498	3014	1393	11240	8305	11130	2182	1646	11960	1694	4365	6605	4480	10940	2438	1545	1097	4638	1898	1663	1202	5435	1857	4402	2696	2035	529	8978	9211	1936	1359	1753	14750	10580	7625	6505	8778	3528	2536	1934	2159	1646	2079	2004	507	4929	2267	1589	1795	4798	17820	5875	1891	2760	10430	2138	2776	9520	2026	1196	2101	3055	3615	2247	5937
2020-12-14	661	1579	3971	1709	3987	3685	3712	1200	6633	8920	11290	2156	6206	2821	4261	4035	4079	6812	45450	3605	10550	5700	2863	16180	2749	7859	2040	31490	2419	1901	8045	2289	4558	16660	1781	6956	2612	2777	3649	5174	10710	8944	2130	4347	3064	4306	2868	2065	4876	6888	3454	1778	2711	9960	9850	2997	1420	1371	4221	2728	1228	1398	4070	1070	21090	9900	1460	1698	8093	2576	3837	3432	1487	8745	1342	13250	3540	3530	11810	9352	824	1945	1722	2599	4110	1909	10870	4293	2585	1431	1835	1000	2356	9000	3647	1645	3213	2913	1635	1548	2901	1096	2654	8200	3881	2743	1315	3634	1936	6026	2538	5044	1828	4417	2340	5937	1824	3877	6476	1175	4428	1546	2174	9670	2707	2369	2586	7627	2829	1850	6813	2239	4138	2346	1031	4682	3039	2139	2440	11470	4420	21020	8152	7036	4521	38240	19630	1137	5682	3001	4012	25120	7410	4877	771	1032	33260	3331	10580	1373	1206	4536	826	949	2279	6215	5447	1571	2085	3410	16630	5059	10020	1104	3127	5709	1830	2758	5348	801	4624	7461	1984	2610	6577	9647	2128	18120	3920	2803	15730	3910	5317	5640	4356	5198	7875	3464	10330	4980	2209	2582	2254	3538	1089	13810	1617	3649	1369	12210	2419	2176	3565	1879	577	818	14200	13900	3298	1800	10920	2344	2102	27290	6327	5058	6673	1756	1473	1660	3479	7170	661	2156	2999	2376	1802	1741	2117	4050	1919	3980	6612	4382	3578	6274	2249	2428	8148	4549	3047	1408	11280	8353	11250	2194	1663	12030	1727	4468	6755	4516	10990	2459	1587	1105	4667	1925	1673	1217	5548	1883	4554	2770	2038	532	9172	9262	1985	1373	1776	14830	10680	7899	6611	8839	3554	2584	1954	2188	1667	2104	2015	513	4956	2303	1598	1816	4884	17920	5927	1903	2792	10470	2177	2835	9630	2034	1210	2115	3109	3633	2253	5956
2020-12-15	666	1587	4002	1734	4011	3805	3800	1211	6783	9072	11350	2165	6378	2843	4296	4059	4145	6924	45780	3635	10600	5727	2884	16250	2808	7897	2093	31630	2496	1915	8156	2365	4597	16730	1805	7102	2635	2857	3663	5211	10770	9006	2144	4411	3091	4391	2882	2124	4972	6921	3555	1792	2756	10020	9900	3016	1431	1377	4258	2760	1231	1408	4090	1076	21210	9970	1469	1720	8216	2616	3871	3504	1498	8810	1346	13340	3560	3621	11860	9442	834	1969	1733	2639	4144	1924	10930	4340	2607	1442	1846	1006	2369	9240	3715	1680	3234	2929	1651	1565	3006	1112	2667	8232	3913	2792	1330	3716	1953	6137	2569	5063	1836	4473	2360	6114	1869	3891	6615	1185	4459	1645	2214	9980	2722	2398	2604	7702	2848	1866	6932	2257	4159	2377	1035	4782	3075	2154	2459	11520	4510	21150	8173	7149	4550	38390	19740	1157	5800	3018	4067	25180	7530	5014	792	1038	33390	3352	10970	1386	1237	4583	834	956	2314	6248	5567	1595	2097	3445	16690	5104	10200	1117	3142	5745	1853	2795	5368	809	4656	7509	1997	2628	6649	9739	2152	18180	3951	2824	15790	3941	5346	5747	4371	5246	7921	3519	10510	5007	2217	2618	2267	3579	1095	13870	1663	3671	1425	12280	2436	2207	3583	1913	582	824	14250	14000	3320	1818	10930	2359	2151	27410	6369	5163	6722	1775	1487	1680	3511	7244	665	2174	3034	2389	1821	1758	2146	4077	1961	4009	6671	4411	3618	6375	2284	2452	8185	4610	3082	1422	11330	8400	11360	2206	1676	12080	1758	4557	6903	4551	11020	2476	1616	1114	4692	1944	1682	1232	5656	1909	4700	2854	2040	535	9380	9298	2033	1386	1787	14910	10760	8110	6707	8879	3580	2632	1974	2216	1688	2130	2025	522	4982	2338	1606	1838	4957	17990	5977	1914	2818	10490	2221	2895	9720	2042	1218	2129	3158	3651	2259	5975
2020-12-16	670	1595	4032	1759	4034	3929	3889	1222	6937	9237	11400	2175	6555	2865	4332	4083	4212	7036	46120	3665	10660	5764	2905	16310	2853	7941	2147	31760	2623	1929	8268	2443	4638	16830	1830	7314	2656	2954	3685	5242	10830	9051	2158	4477	3117	4476	2897	2181	5068	6954	3659	1805	2797	10080	9950	3034	1445	1383	4283	2791	1234	1418	4111	1082	21330	10040	1479	1737	8341	2657	3905	3579	1510	8875	1350	13440	3569	3713	11880	9546	845	1994	1745	2675	4177	1940	10990	4399	2629	1453	1857	1010	2382	9510	3834	1705	3252	2945	1666	1584	3110	1128	2679	8264	3941	2831	1345	3799	1969	6249	2600	5085	1844	4530	2381	6282	1903	3909	6724	1195	4490	1751	2245	10310	2736	2428	2623	7778	2866	1881	7082	2270	4179	2417	1038	4885	3102	2169	2478	11570	4603	21290	8188	7263	4580	38530	19870	1170	5921	3031	4123	25240	7647	5191	813	1043	33540	3396	11270	1400	1269	4631	842	963	2349	6280	5688	1620	2110	3479	16750	5149	10380	1130	3161	5782	1874	2832	5389	818	4667	7557	2011	2647	6710	9808	2177	18250	3982	2844	15850	3971	5381	5846	4390	5299	7950	3574	10690	5034	2226	2654	2280	3626	1102	13940	1711	3692	1461	12380	2454	2240	3599	1944	587	829	14310	14100	3342	1846	10940	2373	2187	27500	6407	5250	6776	1795	1501	1703	3548	7320	669	2192	3069	2403	1840	1774	2183	4104	1997	4033	6722	4439	3660	6512	2317	2477	8227	4661	3109	1436	11370	8447	11470	2218	1703	12130	1785	4670	7055	4586	11050	2497	1657	1122	4744	1964	1691	1247	5764	1934	4866	2932	2043	540	9536	9341	2082	1400	1811	15000	10830	8411	6859	8922	3606	2680	1994	2244	1709	2149	2036	527	5007	2373	1614	1854	5044	18100	6028	1926	2849	10520	2264	2965	9820	2050	1227	2142	3206	3678	2265	5995
2020-12-17	675	1604	4060	1785	4058	4057	3965	1233	7122	9386	11450	2184	6737	2887	4367	4109	4280	7147	46460	3695	10700	5793	2926	16370	2896	7983	2203	31910	2727	1943	8382	2525	4672	16910	1855	7515	2683	3053	3702	5281	10860	9093	2172	4554	3158	4561	2911	2222	5163	6987	3765	1819	2841	10150	10010	3053	1456	1389	4307	2822	1237	1427	4131	1088	21450	10110	1488	1762	8468	2698	3938	3654	1521	8949	1354	13520	3593	3805	11930	9649	856	2023	1757	2709	4212	1956	11050	4450	2652	1465	1869	1018	2395	9770	3954	1731	3276	2961	1682	1610	3217	1143	2691	8283	3967	2870	1360	3882	1986	6364	2636	5101	1851	4587	2401	6471	1931	3914	6871	1206	4520	1864	2286	10660	2751	2458	2641	7854	2885	1897	7227	2286	4199	2454	1042	4990	3132	2184	2498	11630	4698	21400	8209	7379	4626	38650	20000	1177	6045	3056	4178	25310	7765	5349	834	1049	33650	3429	11640	1413	1300	4679	850	971	2384	6313	5809	1644	2123	3508	16810	5194	10570	1143	3176	5819	1895	2870	5409	827	4686	7606	2024	2666	6789	9880	2201	18320	4014	2865	15910	4002	5412	5954	4407	5368	8001	3630	10880	5061	2234	2689	2294	3695	1108	14000	1760	3714	1503	12460	2472	2273	3613	1983	593	834	14360	14190	3364	1864	10940	2388	2246	27590	6451	5346	6820	1815	1515	1723	3590	7389	673	2211	3104	2417	1859	1790	2213	4131	2030	4053	6774	4472	3702	6659	2354	2502	8264	4691	3141	1450	11420	8495	11580	2230	1727	12190	1830	4790	7211	4621	11070	2510	1689	1131	4778	1988	1700	1262	5872	1961	5050	3016	2046	546	9786	9382	2131	1413	1827	15050	10910	8660	7004	8973	3632	2729	2014	2272	1730	2180	2046	534	5034	2409	1623	1870	5142	18180	6079	1937	2875	10560	2304	3028	9920	2058	1240	2156	3252	3696	2271	6014
2020-12-18	679	1612	4089	1810	4081	4189	4043	1244	7281	9541	11500	2194	6925	2910	4402	4130	4349	7258	46790	3725	10750	5824	2946	16430	2935	8031	2261	32050	2802	1957	8498	2609	4712	16980	1880	7715	2697	3153	3723	5318	10900	9133	2186	4607	3188	4648	2926	2264	5260	7020	3876	1832	2870	10220	10080	3072	1467	1395	4347	2853	1240	1437	4152	1094	21560	10190	1498	1780	8597	2741	3973	3732	1533	8992	1358	13600	3617	3899	12030	9775	867	2042	1769	2741	4246	1971	11110	4497	2674	1476	1881	1025	2408	10030	4083	1764	3289	2977	1698	1636	3325	1159	2703	8304	3990	2907	1375	3966	2003	6481	2669	5124	1859	4644	2422	6580	1964	3933	7022	1216	4551	1985	2312	10860	2765	2489	2653	7931	2904	1913	7309	2310	4219	2485	1046	5097	3173	2199	2517	11680	4795	21500	8229	7497	4645	38780	20120	1200	6172	3075	4234	25380	7859	5519	855	1054	33760	3459	12030	1427	1332	4728	858	978	2419	6345	5930	1669	2136	3539	16870	5240	10760	1156	3186	5856	1926	2907	5430	835	4714	7654	2038	2684	6859	9949	2226	18380	4045	2886	15970	4033	5452	6044	4426	5430	8044	3688	11070	5089	2243	2725	2307	3761	1114	14070	1810	3736	1556	12530	2490	2306	3630	2010	598	840	14410	14290	3386	1884	10970	2402	2292	27690	6488	5442	6880	1834	1530	1751	3615	7435	676	2229	3139	2431	1878	1807	2229	4158	2048	4078	6829	4503	3744	6724	2398	2526	8290	4727	3170	1464	11460	8542	11700	2242	1741	12240	1865	4900	7370	4656	11100	2524	1729	1139	4809	2004	1709	1277	5981	1987	5228	3116	2049	552	9999	9418	2180	1426	1846	15120	10990	8848	7104	9004	3658	2780	2034	2300	1752	2207	2057	546	5051	2446	1631	1894	5195	18260	6129	1949	2907	10590	2338	3085	10030	2066	1250	2169	3314	3712	2278	6034

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-12 to 2020-12-18

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-11	646	1554	3881	1631	3917	3338	3477	1167	6201	8522	11135	2127	5695	2751	4155	3959	3873	6429	44499	3514	10371	5626	2798	15952	2629	7738	1883	30996	2248	1854	7699	2060	4503	16368	1705	6688	2571	2544	3593	5080	10527	8759	2084	4224	2997	4040	2823	1943	4557	6793	3154	1738	2597	9803	9713	2939	1394	1350	4137	2621	1219	1368	4004	1051	20728	9673	1432	1674	7711	2457	3733	3208	1451	8602	1331	13024	3517	3250	11720	9168	789	1880	1685	2527	4006	1861	10682	4168	2512	1395	1799	988	2311	8269	3386	1582	3156	2864	1587	1504	2578	1047	2618	8130	3817	2667	1269	3376	1883	5696	2489	4979	1805	4234	2275	5549	1749	3849	6105	1143	4336	1271	2120	8880	2663	2278	2558	7395	2771	1801	6541	2213	4077	2256	1020	4368	2979	2091	2381	11317	4143	20599	8094	6676	4483	37803	19233	1121	5311	2951	3846	24933	7038	4509	707	1015	32935	3274	9681	1332	1106	4386	801	925	2171	6116	5051	1491	2045	3334	16440	4918	9476	1063	3083	5598	1788	2646	5287	774	4603	7312	1943	2553	6441	9441	2053	17912	3824	2742	15548	3811	5217	5368	4294	5087	7772	3298	9774	4896	2181	2465	2212	3431	1071	13529	1477	3583	1260	12027	2363	2078	3528	1800	560	802	14057	13598	3231	1767	10896	2300	1983	26944	6246	4717	6547	1723	1429	1630	3419	6989	649	2099	2893	2332	1743	1690	2014	3968	1863	3878	6474	4299	3461	5969	2128	2350	8056	4451	2978	1364	11147	8207	10899	2156	1632	11854	1650	4209	6310	4408	10875	2396	1465	1079	4606	1885	1643	1170	5195	1805	4285	2651	2029	511	8591	9148	1835	1329	1744	14645	10386	7274	6424	8733	3475	2440	1896	2100	1603	2061	1982	502	4915	2195	1571	1783	4658	17668	5771	1867	2741	10390	2071	2664	9378	2010	1188	2073	3023	3590	2238	5897
2020-12-12	653	1561	3903	1656	3941	3448	3546	1180	6358	8629	11180	2137	5886	2778	4190	3980	3942	6601	44790	3544	10410	5656	2823	15990	2662	7772	1922	31110	2316	1876	7807	2114	4538	16420	1732	6830	2586	2625	3612	5114	10570	8796	2103	4284	3024	4161	2836	1989	4667	6832	3241	1748	2627	9850	9770	2958	1405	1371	4162	2656	1220	1379	4028	1061	20820	9740	1439	1692	7864	2497	3758	3283	1462	8651	1336	13090	3533	3341	11790	9256	802	1897	1699	2558	4038	1874	10730	4214	2542	1411	1811	995	2343	8508	3490	1604	3169	2881	1605	1517	2649	1067	2628	8147	3842	2703	1286	3453	1907	5826	2519	4995	1811	4284	2290	5663	1780	3866	6206	1157	4362	1345	2144	9100	2675	2316	2570	7505	2794	1818	6638	2230	4092	2289	1023	4463	3010	2111	2413	11370	4230	20690	8112	6814	4505	37930	19340	1135	5431	2968	3904	24990	7135	4632	727	1020	33030	3301	9950	1345	1128	4467	810	936	2201	6148	5176	1514	2058	3351	16500	4947	9680	1080	3097	5622	1811	2682	5318	785	4632	7343	1955	2569	6505	9496	2079	17980	3853	2758	15600	3853	5246	5442	4313	5145	7812	3351	9990	4920	2190	2500	2227	3478	1077	13580	1530	3605	1298	12090	2384	2107	3543	1831	566	806	14100	13670	3255	1785	10910	2313	2029	27030	6278	4797	6586	1740	1446	1652	3449	7041	654	2122	2924	2350	1758	1705	2038	3994	1884	3899	6523	4323	3543	6074	2165	2383	8080	4482	3006	1382	11180	8247	11000	2171	1653	11900	1682	4310	6459	4441	10890	2405	1494	1089	4635	1903	1657	1184	5293	1833	4412	2727	2036	520	8776	9182	1882	1350	1759	14700	10450	7444	6496	8768	3506	2483	1921	2130	1622	2085	2016	508	4936	2233	1585	1800	4719	17710	5820	1878	2767	10410	2108	2710	9458	2019	1198	2090	3072	3606	2249	5914
2020-12-13	657	1568	3927	1675	3964	3548	3604	1190	6493	8717	11220	2145	6065	2799	4225	3995	3982	6710	45040	3570	10450	5680	2840	16040	2693	7799	1959	31210	2369	1889	7893	2156	4559	16470	1752	6954	2600	2693	3629	5142	10610	8831	2114	4328	3045	4265	2845	2016	4752	6859	3310	1761	2643	9890	9820	2975	1414	1388	4186	2683	1222	1387	4040	1066	20920	9810	1448	1700	7979	2530	3785	3338	1472	8698	1342	13140	3547	3429	11860	9328	813	1915	1707	2588	4063	1891	10780	4247	2565	1421	1820	999	2366	8710	3568	1615	3184	2896	1617	1524	2718	1088	2638	8161	3863	2736	1300	3525	1924	5918	2540	5014	1816	4319	2304	5747	1812	3882	6277	1169	4390	1413	2165	9290	2685	2347	2582	7580	2808	1834	6709	2243	4107	2315	1025	4531	3036	2125	2437	11420	4299	20770	8126	6897	4516	38020	19440	1143	5504	2981	3965	25030	7213	4748	744	1023	33140	3315	10170	1358	1144	4539	819	943	2223	6179	5272	1528	2071	3372	16540	4974	9840	1092	3106	5648	1829	2721	5349	791	4657	7379	1967	2583	6563	9553	2104	18040	3878	2778	15650	3882	5271	5490	4332	5187	7844	3395	10160	4940	2199	2522	2240	3505	1082	13620	1571	3625	1323	12150	2402	2132	3554	1851	572	810	14130	13730	3272	1797	10930	2325	2057	27120	6307	4864	6623	1755	1459	1664	3472	7083	657	2140	2953	2363	1769	1719	2056	4017	1907	3917	6565	4344	3611	6137	2191	2408	8093	4514	3022	1396	11210	8284	11100	2182	1665	11940	1705	4384	6596	4471	10910	2416	1520	1096	4658	1920	1665	1194	5369	1855	4518	2798	2043	525	8900	9200	1928	1363	1769	14740	10510	7577	6566	8796	3531	2521	1936	2145	1636	2104	2036	513	4946	2267	1592	1813	4768	17790	5862	1886	2787	10440	2138	2743	9523	2027	1205	2103	3110	3620	2260	5930
2020-12-14	663	1575	3959	1699	3996	3650	3674	1200	6631	8836	11270	2154	6250	2821	4259	4021	4032	6829	45340	3596	10510	5708	2867	16100	2745	7841	1999	31330	2437	1904	7983	2202	4586	16540	1777	7083	2621	2769	3649	5178	10680	8881	2124	4376	3073	4369	2861	2057	4843	6887	3392	1776	2664	9960	9860	2992	1424	1405	4224	2709	1224	1396	4055	1071	21030	9880	1456	1715	8101	2573	3813	3402	1483	8755	1348	13230	3566	3525	11930	9423	824	1946	1721	2621	4091	1909	10830	4291	2587	1434	1829	1004	2389	8921	3651	1643	3201	2911	1629	1544	2788	1113	2652	8181	3894	2770	1314	3600	1942	6016	2563	5029	1821	4355	2319	5854	1849	3900	6379	1182	4417	1484	2191	9530	2700	2382	2596	7680	2826	1852	6783	2256	4125	2351	1028	4598	3063	2138	2461	11480	4368	20880	8146	6998	4534	38180	19580	1151	5601	3003	4027	25100	7295	4901	769	1029	33270	3335	10490	1372	1159	4616	827	951	2246	6217	5374	1543	2084	3403	16580	5005	10040	1103	3122	5677	1849	2760	5380	801	4687	7415	1980	2598	6623	9625	2128	18110	3906	2798	15700	3913	5306	5567	4351	5240	7882	3442	10340	4960	2208	2547	2253	3544	1087	13710	1612	3645	1362	12250	2419	2163	3566	1874	579	817	14180	13810	3298	1813	10950	2337	2089	27230	6337	4925	6669	1770	1474	1682	3507	7139	661	2157	2998	2376	1789	1733	2081	4045	1939	3947	6623	4374	3713	6223	2220	2433	8127	4554	3051	1410	11260	8324	11210	2195	1682	12000	1732	4467	6762	4505	10940	2431	1550	1104	4686	1942	1672	1206	5464	1879	4649	2874	2050	531	9051	9232	1975	1376	1787	14830	10580	7784	6664	8839	3561	2560	1951	2177	1653	2125	2073	519	4971	2302	1600	1830	4831	17870	5909	1894	2813	10470	2176	2785	9618	2038	1212	2116	3151	3637	2275	5945
2020-12-15	667	1582	3986	1720	4022	3753	3746	1210	6767	8948	11310	2162	6451	2842	4295	4042	4084	6949	45620	3622	10560	5734	2888	16150	2796	7870	2042	31450	2497	1918	8073	2246	4616	16600	1801	7212	2642	2842	3665	5214	10730	8931	2135	4423	3098	4473	2875	2105	4931	6916	3465	1790	2685	10010	9910	3009	1434	1422	4257	2736	1226	1405	4068	1076	21140	9950	1464	1736	8223	2606	3840	3461	1495	8807	1354	13310	3588	3622	12000	9510	834	1968	1733	2653	4115	1929	10890	4331	2609	1444	1839	1009	2414	9129	3728	1669	3221	2926	1642	1559	2858	1134	2667	8202	3920	2805	1329	3677	1959	6110	2585	5046	1827	4392	2333	5957	1890	3918	6483	1195	4444	1557	2218	9720	2712	2414	2612	7780	2843	1870	6857	2270	4140	2379	1030	4667	3090	2151	2483	11540	4437	20980	8164	7104	4558	38330	19680	1161	5697	3021	4089	25150	7375	5047	788	1034	33410	3351	10810	1386	1174	4694	836	958	2269	6253	5475	1558	2097	3437	16630	5035	10220	1115	3136	5704	1868	2799	5411	809	4723	7449	1993	2612	6684	9700	2153	18180	3933	2818	15740	3943	5334	5638	4368	5283	7923	3488	10520	4980	2216	2575	2266	3577	1093	13770	1655	3665	1418	12330	2436	2193	3580	1901	585	821	14230	13890	3319	1829	10970	2348	2119	27330	6367	4989	6711	1785	1488	1699	3538	7194	664	2174	3035	2388	1807	1747	2104	4075	1975	3969	6675	4396	3803	6303	2246	2458	8161	4602	3083	1424	11300	8362	11310	2207	1696	12050	1758	4550	6910	4538	10970	2443	1575	1111	4713	1961	1680	1216	5534	1902	4791	2952	2056	536	9218	9257	2024	1390	1797	14910	10640	7959	6747	8874	3586	2599	1966	2214	1669	2146	2105	526	4996	2336	1610	1848	4883	17930	5953	1903	2836	10490	2218	2827	9707	2047	1218	2130	3191	3654	2287	5961
2020-12-16	671	1588	4012	1740	4048	3860	3815	1221	6916	9075	11360	2169	6654	2863	4330	4061	4138	7070	45920	3648	10610	5766	2906	16210	2842	7903	2088	31570	2563	1933	8169	2294	4643	16680	1825	7352	2658	2918	3685	5243	10790	8977	2147	4467	3124	4579	2886	2140	5017	6944	3538	1801	2704	10070	9950	3026	1444	1440	4279	2762	1228	1414	4080	1081	21240	10020	1472	1751	8347	2636	3868	3516	1505	8860	1359	13400	3604	3719	12060	9603	845	1992	1743	2685	4145	1940	10950	4374	2631	1455	1849	1013	2439	9346	3818	1686	3237	2941	1654	1576	2929	1159	2678	8221	3943	2840	1343	3750	1976	6209	2607	5066	1832	4429	2347	6061	1922	3936	6549	1207	4471	1635	2242	9970	2724	2446	2627	7862	2858	1883	6936	2283	4159	2413	1033	4739	3116	2164	2509	11590	4507	21090	8179	7208	4584	38480	19800	1169	5773	3041	4152	25210	7455	5216	806	1039	33530	3378	11110	1400	1189	4778	844	966	2294	6284	5576	1572	2110	3470	16670	5065	10400	1127	3152	5734	1886	2839	5442	820	4752	7486	2003	2626	6744	9767	2178	18240	3961	2839	15800	3973	5368	5704	4387	5331	7958	3534	10700	4999	2225	2600	2279	3614	1098	13830	1698	3685	1448	12410	2453	2222	3593	1924	589	825	14280	13980	3339	1847	11000	2360	2149	27430	6397	5063	6758	1801	1502	1716	3572	7251	667	2192	3071	2401	1831	1760	2126	4100	2006	3990	6724	4418	3882	6382	2274	2483	8193	4646	3111	1438	11340	8399	11410	2217	1720	12100	1783	4651	7058	4576	11000	2458	1604	1119	4746	1982	1688	1228	5620	1924	4921	3031	2061	545	9332	9285	2071	1404	1814	14980	10710	8157	6850	8911	3609	2638	1980	2233	1686	2166	2124	531	5017	2372	1617	1861	4940	18010	5994	1911	2858	10510	2258	2871	9799	2055	1225	2142	3230	3675	2299	5976
2020-12-17	675	1596	4041	1759	4069	3970	3875	1231	7065	9181	11400	2176	6857	2885	4366	4081	4183	7189	46210	3674	10660	5793	2922	16270	2886	7936	2125	31710	2612	1948	8266	2341	4664	16760	1849	7493	2675	2998	3703	5276	10840	9024	2158	4515	3154	4687	2896	2169	5103	6969	3601	1814	2719	10130	9990	3043	1453	1457	4302	2788	1230	1423	4093	1086	21330	10080	1480	1766	8469	2671	3896	3572	1516	8919	1364	13480	3627	3817	12140	9691	856	2017	1754	2716	4172	1954	11000	4411	2653	1466	1858	1018	2463	9566	3903	1698	3258	2956	1666	1599	3002	1181	2688	8240	3963	2875	1358	3827	1994	6312	2630	5083	1837	4465	2361	6171	1950	3950	6634	1218	4499	1717	2270	10200	2734	2481	2639	7931	2872	1897	7015	2296	4175	2444	1037	4815	3142	2177	2532	11640	4579	21180	8200	7297	4614	38610	19930	1178	5846	3063	4217	25270	7535	5381	826	1044	33650	3399	11440	1415	1205	4855	852	973	2319	6317	5677	1587	2123	3498	16710	5098	10590	1139	3166	5762	1905	2880	5474	830	4781	7521	2014	2640	6807	9835	2203	18310	3986	2859	15850	4004	5403	5769	4405	5381	7997	3576	10880	5019	2234	2628	2292	3648	1104	13890	1743	3706	1478	12490	2470	2257	3604	1945	595	831	14330	14060	3356	1862	11020	2371	2182	27540	6427	5126	6798	1816	1516	1733	3600	7302	670	2209	3110	2414	1852	1772	2147	4124	2034	4007	6773	4443	3961	6460	2301	2509	8226	4680	3137	1452	11380	8440	11510	2228	1737	12150	1814	4738	7228	4613	11030	2470	1627	1126	4774	2000	1695	1238	5708	1950	5046	3113	2067	553	9465	9311	2122	1415	1826	15040	10780	8316	6943	8948	3633	2675	1994	2255	1701	2187	2143	538	5035	2408	1624	1873	4995	18080	6041	1918	2882	10540	2295	2911	9884	2061	1232	2152	3271	3691	2309	5992
2020-12-18	679	1603	4067	1779	4090	4083	3937	1242	7195	9292	11440	2185	7058	2906	4402	4109	4229	7280	46490	3700	10720	5821	2941	16340	2927	7967	2166	31840	2674	1961	8353	2382	4689	16830	1874	7636	2688	3076	3719	5311	10890	9071	2167	4552	3179	4798	2905	2202	5189	6996	3674	1827	2732	10180	10040	3061	1462	1474	4339	2814	1232	1432	4106	1091	21420	10150	1489	1775	8596	2706	3925	3633	1527	8962	1369	13560	3649	3912	12220	9780	868	2034	1765	2743	4196	1970	11050	4449	2676	1472	1867	1023	2484	9791	3991	1711	3272	2971	1679	1621	3077	1206	2697	8257	3980	2910	1373	3911	2011	6411	2653	5105	1842	4497	2375	6264	1980	3966	6732	1231	4527	1803	2288	10370	2744	2514	2652	8020	2888	1911	7087	2311	4191	2477	1041	4879	3168	2191	2559	11700	4651	21250	8218	7392	4624	38740	20040	1188	5928	3083	4282	25330	7613	5545	843	1050	33780	3415	11760	1429	1221	4935	861	981	2338	6351	5784	1602	2136	3525	16750	5127	10780	1151	3176	5788	1925	2920	5505	839	4811	7553	2026	2654	6869	9897	2229	18370	4010	2880	15890	4036	5437	5829	4423	5417	8035	3625	11080	5039	2243	2653	2306	3681	1109	13950	1789	3726	1516	12540	2488	2291	3617	1964	600	835	14360	14130	3373	1876	11050	2383	2209	27650	6453	5194	6842	1832	1531	1747	3617	7345	674	2227	3145	2427	1870	1785	2160	4150	2054	4028	6821	4465	4040	6518	2331	2534	8257	4720	3165	1466	11420	8478	11620	2238	1746	12210	1836	4825	7389	4647	11060	2482	1659	1133	4798	2016	1703	1249	5784	1969	5164	3198	2071	559	9593	9334	2173	1426	1838	15090	10840	8497	7030	8977	3659	2716	2007	2275	1715	2209	2165	546	5048	2444	1629	1886	5040	18150	6085	1925	2903	10560	2329	2950	9977	2069	1239	2163	3313	3707	2321	6007

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-11 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-11