COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-14

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-0410-27 --10-21 -- --10-31 -- --10-1310-04 --11-0510-2610-24 -- --11-0511-0510-1810-1110-2710-1211-1510-31 --10-29 --10-15 -- --10-1310-28 -- --12-02 --10-0410-0110-2511-0311-01 --10-24 --11-08 -- --10-13 --11-05 --10-2911-0310-1911-03 --10-11 --10-3011-0311-0211-0311-0311-0411-05 -- -- --11-03 --11-0310-2511-0210-1411-05 --11-02 -- -- --11-05 --11-0410-2910-3111-06 -- --10-2011-02 -- -- --12-0310-1109-2711-06 -- --11-3010-1110-3010-11 --11-03 --10-28 -- --09-2710-25 --11-03 -- --10-26 -- --11-03 -- -- --11-05 --10-28 --11-0311-05 -- --10-11 --11-03 -- --11-03 --11-02 --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-02 -- --11-0811-2909-28 -- -- --10-2609-2210-26 --11-0311-06 --11-08 -- --11-03 -- --11-0309-2709-2611-04 --11-0510-1410-25 --10-2911-05 --11-0411-0411-0511-0311-0311-03 --09-3011-0411-0510-25 --10-11 --11-0311-0410-13 -- --11-0311-03 --10-13 --11-0110-18 --10-12 --10-17 -- --10-09 -- --11-0310-2011-0311-0311-0509-3011-05 --09-2911-01 --11-03 -- -- --11-0511-0311-0411-0311-0311-0911-0210-25 --10-1311-0310-2511-0311-03 -- -- -- --10-0911-0311-05 --10-1811-0511-0311-0410-2911-04 -- -- --11-0310-1811-04 --10-2111-03 --11-0511-0611-05 -- -- --10-2511-05 --10-13 -- -- --10-2911-05 -- --10-2010-17 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2910-05 --10-24 -- --10-2111-0811-05 --10-04 -- --11-0511-0310-2211-03 --10-1111-0310-06
Peak daily increment 29 82 62 20 191 28 37 77 72 641 64 163 99 55 235 48 135 441 50 71 321 46 57 70 159 144 49 52 40 131 28 128 148 53 25 62 23 20 69 21 299 145 20 54 30 165 29 249 59 252 29 115 31 225 78 32 16 37 55 75 28 57 41 129 71 25 28 71 32 44 65 77 49 43 53 24 59 17 30 285 360 152 85 541 255 63 99 529 14 612 61 30 19 20 94 36 55 392 87 22 51 159 49 111 94 124 38 60 88 133 609 68 41 256 64 84 90 101 97 43 41 19 196 64 199 67 18 242 234 86 31 184 38 435 113 96 66 142 13 28 45 83 41 33 70 36 76 93 78 118 85 59 183 126 196 31 33 161 67 177 46 15 94 21 22 105 47 9 138 261 166 135 58 8 91 22 320 92 34 137 142 37 14 32 65 41 130
Days since peak 40 48 54 44 62 71 39 49 51 39 39 57 64 48 63 29 44 46 60 62 47 12 71 74 50 41 43 51 36 62 39 46 41 56 41 64 45 41 42 41 41 40 39 41 41 50 42 61 39 42 39 40 46 44 38 55 42 11 64 78 38 14 64 45 64 41 47 78 50 41 49 41 39 47 41 39 64 41 41 42 48 76 68 78 42 36 15 77 49 83 49 41 38 36 41 41 78 79 40 39 61 50 46 39 40 40 39 41 41 41 75 40 39 50 64 41 40 62 41 41 62 43 57 63 58 66 41 55 41 41 39 75 39 76 43 41 39 41 40 41 41 35 42 50 62 41 50 41 41 66 41 39 57 39 41 40 46 40 41 57 40 54 41 39 38 39 50 39 62 46 39 55 58 46 70 51 54 36 39 71 39 41 53 41 64 41 69
Last total 690 1595 3997 1764 4025 3744 3726 1239 6876 9146 11318 2157 6437 2852 4288 4043 4102 7089 45621 3603 10535 5715 2868 16141 2744 7935 2068 31371 2578 1918 8171 2356 4697 16658 1808 7333 2695 2837 3663 5216 10683 8902 2166 4559 3080 4484 2894 2201 4928 6922 3542 1782 2743 10015 9992 2985 1445 1433 4227 2784 1225 1402 4140 1100 21094 10000 1465 1764 8475 2621 3809 3491 1505 8848 1350 13309 3629 3613 11980 9616 834 1989 1749 2716 4085 1923 10912 4305 2657 1509 1835 1035 2451 9207 3859 1681 3226 2916 1653 1578 2876 1114 2648 8228 3951 2762 1322 3649 1955 6224 2638 5058 1837 4503 2327 6095 1915 3917 6621 1221 4429 1614 2289 10029 2712 2472 2598 7948 2841 1853 6939 2318 4194 2380 1039 4745 3178 2151 2487 11562 4506 20885 8175 7226 4572 38243 19628 1195 5845 3040 4009 25160 7414 5018 815 1050 33321 3363 10726 1370 1172 4775 840 1000 2308 6229 5588 1573 2119 3441 16644 5030 10386 1137 3148 5667 1908 2741 5448 825 4720 7421 1982 2623 6695 9678 2151 18189 3923 2800 15742 3982 5322 5656 4387 5313 7892 3544 10910 4979 2253 2660 2288 3711 1103 13720 1789 3655 1459 12275 2503 2197 3606 1929 580 817 14224 13922 3352 1836 10997 2352 2160 27332 6381 5014 6688 1831 1531 1750 3522 7195 671 2171 3032 2420 1800 1762 2101 4043 1959 3976 6677 4457 3976 6447 2255 2528 8139 4560 3073 1458 11291 8353 11230 2235 1683 12045 1797 4614 6719 4562 10977 2444 1604 1123 4706 1985 1681 1217 5524 1937 5026 2967 2056 532 9413 9270 1988 1437 1833 14848 10663 8053 6953 8916 3609 2630 1998 2279 1681 2180 2170 530 5004 2336 1621 1872 4919 17902 5960 1930 2887 10543 2210 2873 9665 2041 1227 2171 3233 3657 2306 5969
Last daily increment 23 20 47 67 47 180 98 19 277 264 69 13 328 33 65 35 107 267 493 42 79 33 30 78 77 80 70 153 141 25 186 126 78 114 46 251 28 120 28 59 69 58 40 142 39 196 36 108 151 58 174 14 65 102 120 10 20 41 34 82 1 15 65 16 183 150 15 26 299 79 37 136 19 96 7 138 50 143 115 181 15 54 35 81 33 22 97 48 56 48 16 19 50 374 192 31 29 18 30 34 149 26 12 34 67 36 28 122 43 229 62 37 12 118 18 215 87 34 199 33 40 126 66 441 23 76 21 235 35 20 175 40 57 41 13 188 87 26 50 115 150 124 42 214 28 189 188 43 232 41 71 112 165 179 37 9 168 50 391 21 34 147 16 35 56 54 229 33 34 55 69 47 414 35 18 35 47 39 79 25 68 41 15 33 99 102 43 116 47 14 77 60 43 118 43 99 46 123 403 34 39 70 29 107 6 71 148 32 75 104 59 43 23 62 8 4 65 135 67 37 52 25 69 101 54 97 59 58 41 51 46 87 16 44 57 37 33 22 33 29 38 26 74 76 238 216 45 84 34 49 52 41 68 50 165 33 23 77 48 178 130 47 44 22 59 14 55 60 18 25 145 56 272 121 14 10 326 52 64 48 41 91 115 324 202 80 58 76 44 66 41 56 87 15 30 58 20 53 110 94 70 31 58 68 57 104 123 17 20 30 88 28 18 23
Last week 74 65 214 224 206 761 492 117 1243 1088 340 63 1354 192 239 154 458 1248 2193 189 308 196 163 374 248 344 317 809 613 142 871 467 346 524 196 1222 198 567 139 256 306 272 148 569 192 872 131 417 734 259 670 77 259 437 486 106 95 162 184 271 8 68 228 84 701 575 56 168 1312 322 144 537 90 472 34 567 187 647 574 838 89 192 123 306 196 107 431 312 248 181 76 71 259 1709 849 197 129 108 126 145 513 134 79 175 233 224 107 526 154 1007 271 137 52 433 96 951 278 126 928 127 170 542 282 1902 98 342 99 903 151 108 770 166 168 256 37 678 311 133 226 439 636 611 146 988 209 915 815 129 939 157 328 448 669 964 168 50 783 220 1982 72 136 708 70 114 242 239 964 163 118 206 414 221 1684 138 114 148 204 201 273 80 223 224 73 117 478 466 179 512 196 99 393 325 219 561 164 443 269 409 1871 162 104 315 125 506 53 395 482 144 333 547 216 202 130 238 42 33 339 628 208 154 186 94 331 710 276 552 313 176 167 208 236 411 44 156 255 156 131 135 162 144 192 168 383 254 809 875 240 288 191 237 197 153 258 294 730 136 141 352 260 753 910 280 189 88 242 87 219 166 93 88 653 244 1205 593 47 49 1450 259 304 181 163 428 499 1354 907 327 238 323 195 300 152 211 309 54 176 267 96 162 484 484 375 110 252 258 272 367 628 61 84 155 401 140 120 131
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 68 75 75 68 27
Low between peaks 27 2 1 7 14 7 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-15 to 2020-12-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-14 690 1595 3997 1764 4025 3744 3726 1239 6876 9146 11318 2157 6437 2852 4288 4043 4102 7089 45621 3603 10535 5715 2868 16141 2744 7935 2068 31371 2578 1918 8171 2356 4697 16658 1808 7333 2695 2837 3663 5216 10683 8902 2166 4559 3080 4484 2894 2201 4928 6922 3542 1782 2743 10015 9992 2985 1445 1433 4227 2784 1225 1402 4140 1100 21094 10000 1465 1764 8475 2621 3809 3491 1505 8848 1350 13309 3629 3613 11980 9616 834 1989 1749 2716 4085 1923 10912 4305 2657 1509 1835 1035 2451 9207 3859 1681 3226 2916 1653 1578 2876 1114 2648 8228 3951 2762 1322 3649 1955 6224 2638 5058 1837 4503 2327 6095 1915 3917 6621 1221 4429 1614 2289 10029 2712 2472 2598 7948 2841 1853 6939 2318 4194 2380 1039 4745 3178 2151 2487 11562 4506 20885 8175 7226 4572 38243 19628 1195 5845 3040 4009 25160 7414 5018 815 1050 33321 3363 10726 1370 1172 4775 840 1000 2308 6229 5588 1573 2119 3441 16644 5030 10386 1137 3148 5667 1908 2741 5448 825 4720 7421 1982 2623 6695 9678 2151 18189 3923 2800 15742 3982 5322 5656 4387 5313 7892 3544 10910 4979 2253 2660 2288 3711 1103 13720 1789 3655 1459 12275 2503 2197 3606 1929 580 817 14224 13922 3352 1836 10997 2352 2160 27332 6381 5014 6688 1831 1531 1750 3522 7195 671 2171 3032 2420 1800 1762 2101 4043 1959 3976 6677 4457 3976 6447 2255 2528 8139 4560 3073 1458 11291 8353 11230 2235 1683 12045 1797 4614 6719 4562 10977 2444 1604 1123 4706 1985 1681 1217 5524 1937 5026 2967 2056 532 9413 9270 1988 1437 1833 14848 10663 8053 6953 8916 3609 2630 1998 2279 1681 2180 2170 530 5004 2336 1621 1872 4919 17902 5960 1930 2887 10543 2210 2873 9665 2041 1227 2171 3233 3657 2306 5969
2020-12-15 706 1602 4016 1796 4037 3942 3831 1253 7120 9310 11370 2167 6816 2878 4326 4068 4184 7131 45870 3634 10610 5739 2890 16240 2802 7937 2138 31610 2688 1936 8336 2462 4774 16660 1824 7553 2716 2837 3674 5234 10760 9011 2184 4604 3095 4652 2910 2296 5132 6957 3683 1796 2782 10040 9990 3010 1457 1469 4258 2829 1227 1412 4169 1113 21220 10080 1475 1809 8641 2685 3862 3586 1519 8914 1357 13380 3629 3756 12010 9670 850 2018 1749 2761 4118 1940 10980 4352 2698 1529 1845 1049 2494 9590 4057 1712 3241 2933 1669 1587 3008 1123 2659 8237 3951 2796 1338 3736 1976 6394 2638 5080 1847 4590 2340 6276 1955 3936 6663 1249 4458 1754 2289 10570 2727 2538 2605 8088 2861 1870 7038 2337 4217 2406 1039 4745 3225 2168 2487 11640 4627 21030 8188 7226 4597 38460 19750 1228 5967 3056 4073 25200 7531 5174 852 1056 33510 3363 10780 1383 1189 4913 850 1023 2357 6266 5688 1599 2135 3461 16710 5073 10600 1154 3158 5678 1933 2778 5494 837 4785 7529 1994 2642 6764 9750 2180 18260 3955 2820 15770 4034 5354 5704 4411 5407 7927 3636 11210 5007 2279 2708 2305 3785 1110 13800 1893 3676 1515 12310 2537 2223 3616 1967 586 822 14260 14050 3379 1836 11030 2366 2212 27480 6396 5109 6724 1847 1546 1786 3552 7232 675 2190 3071 2438 1814 1779 2135 4070 1988 3987 6732 4489 4140 6447 2273 2583 8176 4613 3091 1486 11360 8396 11350 2251 1705 12120 1823 4753 6856 4602 11020 2469 1643 1133 4733 2026 1691 1228 5553 1990 5295 3068 2065 539 9560 9281 2050 1462 1857 14970 10720 8053 7071 8923 3642 2695 2033 2289 1709 2224 2249 537 5005 2387 1641 1906 4922 18030 6014 1944 2924 10540 2252 2933 9740 2050 1236 2189 3289 3662 2319 5982
2020-12-16 721 1609 4052 1824 4066 4135 3928 1267 7395 9530 11420 2177 7193 2903 4362 4092 4275 7368 46220 3663 10660 5775 2911 16300 2844 7981 2195 31750 2794 1952 8495 2584 4844 16690 1856 7762 2737 2913 3695 5272 10820 9063 2200 4704 3121 4811 2924 2394 5297 6991 3812 1809 2824 10100 10050 3032 1469 1504 4288 2871 1229 1421 4196 1126 21350 10160 1485 1845 8794 2743 3884 3677 1532 8977 1363 13480 3650 3897 12090 9810 865 2046 1763 2818 4150 1957 11050 4397 2743 1561 1855 1063 2535 9950 4274 1743 3260 2949 1684 1612 3134 1129 2670 8257 3984 2830 1353 3821 1995 6619 2672 5100 1857 4669 2353 6486 1996 3955 6813 1268 4486 1898 2320 11070 2741 2600 2626 8243 2880 1887 7131 2361 4239 2431 1043 4792 3278 2185 2520 11720 4745 21130 8209 7354 4621 38610 19880 1258 6199 3075 4134 25260 7646 5380 889 1062 33670 3407 11010 1396 1205 5048 859 1044 2401 6302 5779 1624 2151 3495 16770 5114 10960 1169 3179 5688 1955 2814 5537 856 4824 7588 2006 2661 6830 9830 2209 18330 3987 2839 15800 4084 5389 5787 4434 5495 7965 3722 11500 5033 2303 2764 2320 3895 1117 13860 1993 3698 1562 12410 2568 2248 3637 2011 592 827 14320 14170 3404 1870 11050 2380 2271 27580 6446 5200 6782 1877 1559 1825 3581 7303 679 2209 3108 2455 1840 1796 2167 4096 2016 4009 6785 4540 4361 6558 2289 2636 8214 4661 3123 1512 11410 8439 11470 2266 1750 12180 1865 4920 6993 4639 11040 2492 1679 1143 4776 2064 1701 1240 5650 2040 5569 3168 2073 546 9790 9320 2110 1484 1881 15060 10790 8196 7268 8970 3673 2758 2065 2320 1735 2265 2326 544 5037 2437 1658 1938 5011 18110 6066 1957 2969 10570 2297 3007 9840 2059 1244 2207 3344 3688 2332 5994
2020-12-17 736 1618 4081 1854 4095 4338 4027 1280 7682 9720 11480 2187 7536 2929 4399 4116 4366 7604 46560 3693 10700 5804 2931 16360 2889 8025 2259 31910 2902 1969 8657 2682 4915 16730 1890 7980 2758 2980 3714 5316 10850 9112 2216 4824 3162 4970 2939 2479 5481 7026 3942 1823 2867 10180 10120 3051 1481 1540 4317 2914 1232 1430 4222 1138 21470 10240 1494 1884 8947 2799 3907 3769 1545 9040 1369 13560 3681 4041 12170 9940 881 2074 1782 2874 4182 1973 11110 4442 2799 1596 1865 1086 2573 10300 4483 1774 3288 2965 1700 1642 3264 1137 2680 8268 4018 2864 1369 3905 2014 6867 2702 5116 1866 4750 2366 6690 2038 3974 6960 1292 4514 2055 2334 11640 2756 2665 2644 8415 2900 1903 7225 2389 4262 2458 1047 4839 3340 2201 2546 11790 4865 21230 8234 7477 4645 38760 20010 1289 6440 3104 4195 25320 7762 5578 927 1068 33800 3436 11260 1409 1221 5186 868 1065 2445 6337 5864 1650 2166 3526 16840 5155 11320 1185 3194 5700 1978 2850 5580 869 4874 7641 2018 2680 6894 9900 2238 18400 4019 2858 15840 4135 5422 5863 4457 5581 8023 3809 11790 5060 2326 2834 2336 3984 1124 13910 2098 3719 1622 12500 2601 2272 3659 2062 597 832 14370 14260 3430 1892 11080 2393 2341 27690 6495 5293 6823 1908 1572 1861 3610 7367 683 2228 3145 2472 1866 1813 2198 4121 2044 4023 6837 4595 4621 6716 2306 2690 8249 4688 3156 1538 11440 8481 11570 2281 1780 12240 1914 5089 7127 4678 11060 2505 1716 1153 4814 2103 1711 1252 5760 2091 5884 3272 2081 553 10070 9361 2170 1505 1904 15140 10850 8309 7515 9024 3704 2821 2096 2367 1760 2307 2414 550 5066 2487 1676 1969 5102 18180 6118 1969 3015 10610 2342 3077 9950 2069 1252 2223 3402 3710 2344 6007
2020-12-18 750 1627 4106 1881 4126 4543 4125 1293 7988 9940 11520 2197 7883 2953 4435 4140 4452 7826 46870 3722 10750 5836 2951 16420 2928 8075 2321 32050 3007 1984 8815 2778 4981 16760 1923 8193 2778 3068 3736 5357 10900 9155 2232 4930 3190 5125 2953 2561 5657 7059 4067 1836 2907 10240 10200 3071 1492 1576 4347 2957 1234 1439 4247 1150 21590 10310 1504 1923 9092 2853 3924 3860 1557 9100 1376 13640 3708 4187 12270 10100 896 2101 1803 2929 4214 1990 11170 4486 2856 1615 1875 1101 2611 10630 4705 1805 3300 2980 1715 1674 3395 1142 2691 8277 4043 2897 1384 3988 2032 7100 2739 5138 1876 4827 2378 6875 2081 3993 7140 1317 4541 2220 2364 12130 2770 2728 2657 8595 2918 1919 7315 2415 4284 2484 1054 4892 3397 2217 2574 11860 4984 21320 8254 7609 4668 38900 20120 1319 6695 3124 4255 25400 7878 5772 965 1074 33930 3466 11530 1422 1236 5323 876 1086 2488 6372 5947 1674 2180 3555 16900 5196 11680 1200 3210 5711 1999 2886 5620 891 4921 7688 2029 2699 6957 9970 2267 18460 4050 2878 15860 4185 5464 5954 4478 5665 8073 3896 12080 5086 2349 2888 2351 4071 1130 13970 2203 3739 1695 12570 2636 2296 3679 2103 603 837 14420 14380 3455 1911 11110 2406 2407 27800 6529 5385 6884 1934 1584 1910 3637 7412 687 2247 3181 2488 1885 1829 2228 4147 2071 4046 6888 4647 4899 6844 2321 2742 8270 4725 3188 1564 11470 8523 11700 2295 1800 12300 1962 5248 7262 4715 11080 2522 1750 1162 4849 2141 1720 1264 5866 2142 6198 3376 2088 560 10330 9397 2230 1524 1927 15210 10920 8457 7725 9063 3732 2884 2125 2413 1784 2348 2501 557 5085 2537 1693 2012 5191 18260 6169 1981 3057 10650 2385 3157 10070 2078 1259 2240 3460 3726 2356 6018
2020-12-19 764 1636 4127 1909 4149 4757 4225 1306 8235 10110 11570 2207 8086 2978 4471 4164 4521 7963 47130 3751 10780 5866 2971 16470 2947 8123 2374 32170 3114 2000 8977 2881 5048 16810 1949 8413 2798 3129 3752 5391 10930 9194 2247 5039 3208 5281 2967 2648 5805 7093 4194 1849 2939 10280 10260 3085 1503 1612 4376 2999 1236 1448 4271 1162 21710 10390 1513 1953 9239 2907 3942 3953 1569 9160 1382 13700 3725 4339 12320 10220 912 2129 1812 2985 4245 2006 11240 4530 2900 1645 1885 1114 2648 10920 4892 1836 3316 2996 1730 1691 3532 1147 2701 8288 4065 2931 1399 4072 2050 7270 2771 5161 1885 4904 2391 7034 2125 4012 7289 1340 4569 2399 2377 12790 2784 2793 2665 8723 2937 1936 7407 2440 4305 2511 1058 4953 3455 2233 2592 11930 5107 21420 8270 7773 4691 39000 20220 1350 6912 3145 4315 25440 7995 5925 1006 1080 34020 3485 11750 1435 1252 5463 885 1108 2531 6406 6032 1699 2195 3581 16960 5237 11970 1215 3222 5722 2021 2922 5661 905 4952 7738 2041 2718 7020 10020 2297 18530 4082 2897 15890 4234 5488 6036 4500 5749 8111 3984 12370 5112 2371 2954 2366 4143 1136 14030 2313 3760 1752 12640 2657 2320 3696 2144 609 842 14460 14470 3480 1924 11120 2419 2458 27890 6549 5478 6915 1962 1596 1947 3665 7465 691 2266 3218 2504 1897 1845 2258 4172 2098 4082 6939 4702 5171 6968 2337 2795 8295 4752 3207 1590 11500 8566 11770 2308 1819 12350 2019 5377 7398 4752 11100 2542 1785 1171 4874 2179 1729 1276 5939 2194 6540 3483 2096 566 10590 9426 2290 1544 1950 15270 11000 8590 7929 9100 3762 2948 2153 2456 1807 2389 2595 564 5116 2589 1710 2034 5279 18320 6220 1993 3095 10680 2422 3222 10150 2087 1267 2256 3519 3742 2369 6030
2020-12-20 777 1644 4158 1937 4179 4982 4328 1319 8509 10320 11630 2216 8398 3002 4507 4188 4583 8168 47420 3780 10810 5887 2991 16510 2960 8168 2441 32270 3224 2016 9142 3010 5115 16840 1979 8639 2819 3194 3772 5423 10960 9229 2262 5150 3230 5440 2980 2738 5957 7127 4324 1862 2976 10330 10330 3096 1515 1649 4406 3043 1239 1458 4296 1173 21830 10470 1523 1985 9390 2961 3960 4048 1582 9221 1388 13760 3752 4496 12370 10360 928 2156 1824 3043 4277 2022 11300 4574 2964 1674 1895 1128 2685 11240 5107 1867 3332 3012 1745 1706 3674 1152 2711 8299 4092 2965 1415 4156 2069 7467 2804 5178 1894 4982 2404 7223 2170 4030 7442 1360 4596 2593 2391 13480 2798 2860 2674 8884 2955 1952 7500 2467 4327 2538 1058 5015 3513 2249 2603 12010 5232 21500 8282 7925 4715 39100 20320 1381 7161 3162 4376 25490 8115 6116 1048 1087 34110 3502 11990 1449 1268 5608 894 1129 2573 6441 6118 1724 2209 3598 17020 5277 12300 1229 3240 5733 2042 2959 5702 925 4985 7789 2053 2737 7083 10080 2326 18600 4113 2917 15920 4284 5511 6102 4522 5833 8138 4075 12670 5138 2394 3020 2381 4223 1142 14070 2429 3781 1803 12690 2688 2344 3714 2181 614 847 14500 14550 3505 1938 11140 2432 2516 27980 6593 5572 6964 1992 1608 1984 3693 7517 695 2285 3255 2520 1902 1861 2289 4198 2125 4102 6991 4752 5501 7098 2352 2850 8311 4778 3220 1617 11530 8608 11830 2322 1838 12400 2063 5521 7535 4789 11110 2556 1819 1180 4896 2219 1738 1288 6022 2247 6887 3595 2103 573 10840 9458 2350 1563 1973 15310 11070 8756 8162 9148 3791 3014 2181 2515 1831 2432 2681 570 5128 2641 1727 2066 5383 18390 6271 2005 3140 10710 2461 3287 10220 2097 1275 2272 3579 3757 2381 6042
2020-12-21 791 1653 4199 1966 4218 5217 4433 1332 8779 10550 11680 2226 8736 3027 4543 4212 4679 8390 47850 3810 10890 5916 3012 16580 3032 8235 2512 32420 3336 2031 9310 3123 5182 16930 2023 8871 2839 3343 3798 5470 11040 9292 2278 5234 3266 5603 2994 2825 6116 7160 4458 1875 3015 10420 10420 3110 1526 1687 4436 3087 1241 1467 4320 1185 21950 10540 1532 2009 9543 3016 3997 4146 1594 9282 1395 13880 3789 4660 12470 10510 944 2184 1850 3117 4309 2038 11360 4619 3006 1706 1905 1140 2722 11570 5304 1899 3356 3028 1761 1737 3822 1157 2722 8332 4151 2999 1430 4241 2087 7611 2866 5206 1904 5060 2417 7389 2216 4049 7655 1391 4624 2803 2447 13760 2812 2928 2692 9095 2974 1968 7595 2489 4348 2565 1067 5228 3585 2264 2645 12080 5361 21610 8318 8168 4738 39270 20480 1414 7331 3196 4436 25590 8236 6323 1091 1093 34260 3540 12410 1462 1283 5757 903 1152 2616 6475 6205 1749 2224 3644 17080 5318 12700 1244 3258 5744 2063 2995 5743 944 5038 7827 2065 2756 7146 10170 2357 18670 4145 2936 15950 4334 5551 6191 4544 5918 8180 4168 12980 5164 2416 3075 2396 4292 1149 14140 2551 3802 1878 12790 2735 2368 3732 2233 620 852 14560 14660 3530 1967 11180 2445 2590 28080 6642 5669 7014 2037 1620 2029 3721 7597 699 2305 3291 2536 1932 1877 2319 4223 2152 4128 7042 4806 5639 7314 2367 2905 8344 4821 3266 1644 11590 8650 11990 2336 1856 12470 2106 5684 7673 4826 11150 2576 1854 1189 4941 2259 1748 1301 6152 2302 7153 3710 2111 580 11110 9506 2412 1583 1997 15410 11170 9150 8308 9211 3820 3081 2209 2565 1855 2475 2736 577 5154 2695 1744 2109 5476 18480 6323 2016 3189 10760 2510 3380 10330 2106 1282 2288 3640 3780 2393 6054

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-15 to 2020-12-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-14 690 1595 3997 1764 4025 3744 3726 1239 6876 9146 11318 2157 6437 2852 4288 4043 4102 7089 45621 3603 10535 5715 2868 16141 2744 7935 2068 31371 2578 1918 8171 2356 4697 16658 1808 7333 2695 2837 3663 5216 10683 8902 2166 4559 3080 4484 2894 2201 4928 6922 3542 1782 2743 10015 9992 2985 1445 1433 4227 2784 1225 1402 4140 1100 21094 10000 1465 1764 8475 2621 3809 3491 1505 8848 1350 13309 3629 3613 11980 9616 834 1989 1749 2716 4085 1923 10912 4305 2657 1509 1835 1035 2451 9207 3859 1681 3226 2916 1653 1578 2876 1114 2648 8228 3951 2762 1322 3649 1955 6224 2638 5058 1837 4503 2327 6095 1915 3917 6621 1221 4429 1614 2289 10029 2712 2472 2598 7948 2841 1853 6939 2318 4194 2380 1039 4745 3178 2151 2487 11562 4506 20885 8175 7226 4572 38243 19628 1195 5845 3040 4009 25160 7414 5018 815 1050 33321 3363 10726 1370 1172 4775 840 1000 2308 6229 5588 1573 2119 3441 16644 5030 10386 1137 3148 5667 1908 2741 5448 825 4720 7421 1982 2623 6695 9678 2151 18189 3923 2800 15742 3982 5322 5656 4387 5313 7892 3544 10910 4979 2253 2660 2288 3711 1103 13720 1789 3655 1459 12275 2503 2197 3606 1929 580 817 14224 13922 3352 1836 10997 2352 2160 27332 6381 5014 6688 1831 1531 1750 3522 7195 671 2171 3032 2420 1800 1762 2101 4043 1959 3976 6677 4457 3976 6447 2255 2528 8139 4560 3073 1458 11291 8353 11230 2235 1683 12045 1797 4614 6719 4562 10977 2444 1604 1123 4706 1985 1681 1217 5524 1937 5026 2967 2056 532 9413 9270 1988 1437 1833 14848 10663 8053 6953 8916 3609 2630 1998 2279 1681 2180 2170 530 5004 2336 1621 1872 4919 17902 5960 1930 2887 10543 2210 2873 9665 2041 1227 2171 3233 3657 2306 5969
2020-12-15 705 1607 4032 1806 4061 3881 3820 1256 7084 9330 11370 2166 6717 2881 4334 4068 4178 7260 45970 3633 10590 5744 2892 16200 2794 7986 2130 31500 2693 1938 8331 2448 4759 16740 1840 7539 2722 2928 3682 5262 10740 8953 2188 4658 3109 4637 2916 2291 5057 6964 3671 1796 2787 10080 10070 3000 1461 1463 4263 2832 1227 1413 4177 1114 21230 10100 1475 1795 8700 2676 3837 3586 1521 8926 1356 13410 3664 3732 12060 9760 848 2022 1766 2775 4109 1946 10990 4354 2701 1542 1847 1048 2490 9530 4018 1715 3250 2933 1674 1598 2977 1135 2662 8255 3989 2802 1340 3744 1979 6390 2677 5081 1845 4580 2343 6267 1970 3941 6776 1246 4459 1731 2341 10400 2728 2531 2615 8125 2866 1874 7066 2351 4226 2413 1044 4850 3239 2170 2517 11640 4619 20990 8197 7389 4605 38410 19750 1220 6019 3067 4067 25230 7527 5183 847 1058 33470 3389 11040 1384 1192 4905 852 1023 2349 6274 5743 1598 2140 3480 16700 5065 10680 1158 3165 5689 1942 2775 5497 837 4772 7460 1995 2643 6779 9760 2181 18270 3953 2818 15800 4034 5351 5747 4414 5386 7934 3622 11250 5006 2274 2724 2308 3798 1112 13790 1895 3677 1535 12360 2543 2232 3626 1972 587 821 14280 14030 3388 1860 11030 2368 2216 27440 6421 5103 6740 1862 1561 1788 3560 7262 678 2195 3075 2444 1818 1782 2130 4072 2000 3998 6740 4501 4131 6586 2296 2585 8173 4612 3109 1487 11340 8397 11350 2257 1702 12110 1839 4753 6859 4607 11000 2459 1646 1135 4738 2018 1694 1231 5609 1976 5287 3074 2062 539 9670 9303 2043 1468 1857 14930 10740 8290 7122 8967 3649 2685 2024 2331 1705 2217 2221 541 5034 2377 1638 1903 4995 17980 6020 1950 2931 10580 2259 2938 9770 2052 1239 2193 3305 3677 2323 5991
2020-12-16 714 1615 4061 1832 4090 4007 3904 1269 7277 9490 11420 2175 6969 2906 4371 4091 4246 7431 46280 3661 10640 5774 2914 16250 2833 8025 2182 31620 2795 1955 8465 2523 4805 16800 1868 7719 2743 3022 3702 5296 10790 8997 2205 4728 3134 4767 2932 2349 5170 6996 3779 1808 2817 10140 10130 3019 1473 1487 4289 2867 1229 1422 4197 1123 21330 10170 1484 1819 8883 2721 3862 3662 1533 8987 1362 13500 3684 3843 12130 9870 861 2045 1779 2818 4138 1958 11040 4402 2732 1564 1857 1055 2526 9800 4154 1742 3269 2948 1689 1620 3064 1152 2673 8278 4016 2839 1355 3826 2000 6527 2705 5099 1851 4636 2357 6424 2012 3962 6890 1263 4486 1839 2376 10710 2741 2580 2631 8254 2885 1890 7168 2371 4245 2450 1047 4934 3279 2185 2544 11690 4712 21100 8217 7531 4632 38570 19880 1235 6151 3085 4127 25290 7618 5370 875 1062 33610 3422 11340 1398 1207 5014 862 1037 2377 6310 5872 1619 2156 3513 16750 5097 10920 1173 3183 5714 1968 2813 5535 849 4797 7496 2006 2660 6846 9830 2209 18340 3982 2837 15840 4075 5385 5822 4434 5448 7971 3679 11520 5029 2286 2763 2324 3865 1118 13850 1970 3697 1580 12450 2571 2262 3642 2008 592 826 14330 14130 3415 1886 11050 2381 2261 27550 6455 5174 6789 1881 1580 1819 3594 7324 681 2214 3113 2462 1843 1800 2154 4095 2032 4019 6794 4532 4241 6691 2326 2623 8210 4655 3139 1507 11380 8438 11460 2271 1735 12160 1875 4868 7007 4643 11030 2473 1683 1146 4773 2039 1703 1243 5701 2010 5499 3168 2066 546 9860 9335 2099 1490 1882 15010 10800 8516 7260 9008 3678 2734 2047 2355 1725 2245 2258 547 5064 2416 1650 1922 5067 18060 6067 1961 2965 10600 2300 2992 9860 2061 1247 2210 3363 3699 2336 6008
2020-12-17 723 1623 4088 1860 4117 4136 3980 1282 7482 9630 11460 2184 7222 2933 4408 4116 4313 7607 46580 3689 10690 5803 2937 16300 2874 8066 2235 31740 2881 1974 8600 2595 4843 16870 1896 7901 2796 3118 3721 5334 10830 9038 2220 4802 3168 4899 2946 2400 5287 7027 3874 1821 2850 10210 10190 3037 1484 1510 4314 2902 1231 1431 4217 1133 21440 10250 1492 1847 9066 2775 3887 3740 1544 9053 1367 13580 3711 3954 12200 9990 875 2069 1796 2858 4165 1974 11100 4444 2766 1590 1869 1067 2562 10080 4292 1769 3295 2963 1706 1646 3152 1167 2685 8296 4044 2876 1370 3911 2020 6666 2733 5115 1857 4691 2372 6580 2052 3976 7020 1281 4513 1953 2416 11010 2755 2627 2647 8392 2904 1907 7270 2392 4264 2485 1050 5018 3319 2200 2570 11750 4807 21190 8237 7679 4670 38700 20010 1249 6298 3108 4186 25350 7709 5553 904 1068 33730 3448 11660 1412 1222 5125 871 1051 2406 6346 6001 1639 2172 3543 16800 5128 11190 1189 3199 5740 1993 2851 5570 856 4832 7531 2017 2675 6919 9900 2237 18410 4011 2856 15890 4116 5418 5900 4454 5513 8016 3738 11790 5052 2297 2809 2339 3935 1124 13900 2047 3717 1638 12540 2600 2294 3659 2048 600 831 14380 14200 3436 1904 11070 2394 2311 27650 6490 5243 6830 1900 1599 1844 3630 7381 685 2233 3152 2478 1867 1817 2178 4120 2064 4035 6849 4566 4363 6807 2359 2661 8244 4687 3169 1526 11420 8483 11560 2286 1759 12210 1919 4989 7157 4680 11050 2482 1716 1156 4802 2060 1713 1255 5800 2046 5715 3265 2072 552 10100 9367 2154 1511 1900 15070 10870 8708 7408 9052 3707 2782 2069 2400 1745 2273 2307 554 5090 2455 1661 1940 5144 18120 6122 1971 2999 10640 2340 3042 9950 2068 1256 2226 3417 3718 2350 6023
2020-12-18 732 1631 4114 1889 4145 4269 4062 1295 7701 9790 11510 2193 7477 2957 4444 4139 4381 7783 46870 3716 10740 5832 2964 16360 2912 8110 2290 31860 2973 1992 8734 2669 4890 16930 1925 8085 2807 3221 3741 5372 10880 9077 2235 4872 3195 5031 2961 2453 5403 7059 3979 1833 2883 10270 10250 3056 1495 1534 4350 2936 1233 1440 4239 1142 21550 10320 1501 1876 9252 2822 3910 3817 1556 9110 1373 13660 3736 4067 12280 10130 888 2091 1814 2898 4190 1992 11150 4490 2802 1604 1879 1076 2596 10360 4435 1802 3308 2979 1722 1674 3241 1186 2695 8313 4068 2913 1386 3999 2040 6804 2761 5133 1863 4745 2387 6731 2094 3995 7173 1299 4540 2073 2451 11290 2769 2673 2660 8539 2925 1923 7366 2414 4282 2523 1053 5104 3362 2215 2598 11800 4902 21270 8256 7829 4693 38830 20120 1270 6446 3128 4246 25410 7795 5737 935 1075 33840 3474 12010 1426 1237 5231 879 1065 2435 6381 6136 1659 2187 3572 16850 5159 11460 1203 3214 5764 2019 2889 5603 867 4864 7564 2028 2692 6990 9960 2263 18470 4038 2875 15930 4157 5458 5987 4474 5577 8061 3798 12070 5075 2309 2852 2355 4011 1130 13960 2127 3738 1707 12620 2627 2325 3674 2082 606 836 14430 14300 3462 1922 11100 2406 2359 27760 6523 5320 6883 1919 1620 1882 3658 7430 689 2253 3189 2496 1886 1834 2202 4145 2089 4057 6904 4599 4475 6909 2394 2701 8267 4725 3199 1546 11450 8524 11670 2300 1774 12260 1960 5109 7321 4717 11080 2493 1752 1167 4830 2081 1723 1267 5898 2078 5939 3367 2077 558 10320 9397 2211 1534 1921 15130 10930 8939 7550 9090 3736 2833 2091 2438 1765 2302 2357 563 5109 2495 1671 1964 5218 18200 6173 1981 3032 10680 2380 3101 10060 2079 1265 2247 3479 3736 2365 6039
2020-12-19 739 1639 4138 1909 4162 4405 4126 1308 7888 9900 11550 2201 7712 2980 4480 4161 4441 7927 47140 3744 10780 5860 2981 16410 2941 8145 2336 31980 3042 2008 8857 2745 4917 17000 1952 8247 2815 3314 3758 5404 10920 9119 2251 4933 3217 5166 2971 2507 5513 7090 4081 1844 2910 10310 10300 3073 1505 1558 4372 2971 1235 1450 4259 1151 21630 10390 1510 1899 9444 2856 3933 3893 1567 9157 1379 13710 3752 4186 12340 10240 902 2109 1823 2934 4215 2004 11200 4529 2833 1621 1889 1083 2632 10650 4568 1826 3322 2994 1737 1687 3332 1201 2701 8330 4087 2944 1401 4078 2060 6936 2788 5152 1869 4800 2401 6858 2136 4010 7266 1317 4568 2200 2474 11600 2780 2717 2669 8666 2943 1936 7455 2436 4301 2551 1056 5193 3395 2231 2624 11850 4998 21350 8272 7994 4706 38940 20210 1284 6587 3148 4307 25460 7888 5880 965 1083 33940 3493 12350 1440 1253 5332 887 1079 2463 6410 6267 1679 2203 3594 16900 5189 11670 1219 3227 5788 2044 2927 5637 878 4886 7593 2039 2706 7051 10020 2288 18540 4063 2894 15980 4199 5482 6056 4493 5628 8097 3857 12340 5098 2320 2891 2370 4056 1136 14010 2210 3758 1753 12670 2652 2358 3689 2115 612 840 14460 14370 3480 1934 11120 2418 2404 27860 6549 5407 6915 1938 1639 1907 3678 7480 692 2272 3223 2512 1899 1849 2219 4169 2112 4083 6951 4626 4583 6983 2425 2734 8292 4756 3222 1564 11490 8561 11750 2313 1785 12310 2004 5210 7447 4753 11100 2505 1784 1175 4850 2102 1732 1279 5970 2108 6179 3457 2084 563 10500 9424 2266 1551 1936 15170 11000 9128 7667 9124 3763 2883 2112 2465 1782 2331 2395 569 5132 2535 1681 1976 5278 18240 6215 1990 3065 10700 2414 3147 10120 2087 1272 2265 3537 3751 2376 6056
2020-12-20 746 1647 4164 1926 4183 4548 4193 1321 8061 10020 11600 2208 7977 3005 4516 4179 4502 8063 47420 3772 10820 5884 2995 16460 2971 8175 2390 32080 3104 2025 8986 2826 4946 17040 1980 8413 2825 3413 3776 5429 10970 9162 2266 4994 3240 5304 2982 2548 5625 7120 4184 1857 2937 10350 10350 3090 1515 1582 4396 3005 1237 1459 4276 1160 21710 10460 1519 1914 9648 2896 3958 3963 1577 9210 1384 13770 3773 4305 12390 10330 915 2129 1830 2973 4242 2020 11250 4566 2864 1638 1898 1090 2668 10940 4715 1849 3337 3010 1752 1695 3426 1216 2709 8350 4107 2978 1417 4158 2081 7073 2811 5170 1876 4856 2416 6998 2181 4025 7362 1334 4595 2337 2496 11970 2789 2758 2678 8803 2960 1952 7554 2456 4320 2577 1059 5283 3432 2246 2649 11900 5097 21410 8287 8133 4714 39030 20310 1296 6745 3166 4369 25520 7976 6046 998 1087 34040 3510 12630 1454 1268 5443 897 1093 2488 6440 6402 1700 2219 3610 16950 5220 11930 1234 3241 5814 2069 2966 5671 889 4906 7626 2049 2721 7111 10080 2312 18610 4089 2914 16020 4240 5508 6107 4513 5677 8130 3918 12630 5122 2331 2925 2386 4100 1142 14050 2298 3779 1791 12720 2677 2386 3703 2144 618 844 14500 14430 3500 1945 11140 2431 2452 27950 6581 5477 6954 1957 1656 1927 3700 7531 696 2292 3256 2527 1908 1864 2239 4191 2137 4102 6997 4653 4701 7071 2455 2765 8310 4786 3239 1584 11520 8599 11820 2326 1796 12360 2037 5320 7573 4788 11120 2516 1823 1182 4870 2120 1740 1291 6042 2138 6376 3553 2090 568 10690 9450 2322 1571 1950 15210 11060 9301 7788 9160 3789 2933 2134 2497 1799 2360 2439 575 5140 2576 1690 1995 5347 18300 6257 1998 3099 10720 2450 3186 10180 2093 1279 2278 3588 3766 2387 6072
2020-12-21 753 1655 4195 1945 4208 4695 4272 1335 8241 10160 11640 2219 8248 3029 4553 4208 4576 8210 47750 3801 10890 5912 3018 16520 3025 8221 2446 32210 3164 2043 9111 2907 4977 17110 2010 8596 2842 3534 3798 5466 11040 9219 2282 5058 3269 5446 2992 2597 5742 7149 4306 1873 2964 10420 10410 3108 1527 1606 4434 3040 1239 1469 4293 1169 21820 10530 1529 1935 9833 2945 3990 4036 1589 9277 1390 13860 3795 4435 12450 10420 929 2158 1844 3020 4268 2038 11300 4609 2893 1654 1908 1096 2704 11240 4866 1880 3356 3025 1768 1716 3523 1235 2718 8375 4138 3016 1433 4241 2101 7205 2839 5188 1882 4912 2432 7145 2224 4045 7495 1353 4623 2482 2539 12240 2801 2809 2692 8952 2980 1971 7656 2474 4338 2617 1062 5394 3474 2262 2679 11960 5197 21500 8309 8269 4724 39190 20450 1311 6860 3189 4432 25590 8072 6239 1032 1092 34180 3532 13040 1469 1283 5547 906 1108 2515 6479 6542 1720 2235 3643 16990 5252 12200 1249 3257 5842 2095 3006 5710 898 4936 7660 2059 2737 7182 10150 2343 18680 4116 2933 16070 4282 5546 6186 4534 5741 8170 3977 12930 5145 2343 2963 2402 4160 1148 14130 2389 3799 1848 12810 2708 2418 3716 2181 625 850 14560 14500 3528 1960 11170 2444 2505 28060 6617 5540 7001 1978 1674 1953 3733 7592 700 2311 3304 2542 1933 1880 2265 4217 2172 4126 7058 4691 4818 7164 2487 2800 8344 4826 3271 1604 11570 8642 11950 2339 1814 12430 2076 5428 7756 4822 11160 2529 1856 1189 4898 2142 1748 1304 6140 2173 6567 3660 2095 574 10880 9483 2385 1586 1969 15290 11140 9567 7897 9204 3822 2988 2156 2531 1818 2390 2494 581 5156 2618 1699 2016 5423 18380 6311 2005 3134 10760 2494 3241 10270 2104 1287 2293 3646 3784 2401 6087

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.