COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-14

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	11-04	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	10-31	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	11-05	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-05	11-05	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-15	10-31	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	10-13	10-28	--	--	12-02	--	10-04	10-01	10-25	11-03	11-01	--	10-24	--	11-08	--	--	10-13	--	11-05	--	10-29	11-03	10-19	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-30	11-03	11-02	11-03	11-03	11-04	11-05	--	--	--	11-03	--	11-03	10-25	11-02	10-14	11-05	--	11-02	--	--	--	11-05	--	11-04	10-29	10-31	11-06	--	--	10-20	11-02	--	--	--	12-03	10-11	09-27	11-06	--	--	11-30	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-28	--	--	09-27	10-25	--	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-05	--	10-28	--	11-03	11-05	--	--	10-11	--	11-03	--	--	11-03	--	11-02	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-08	11-29	09-28	--	--	--	10-26	09-22	10-26	--	11-03	11-06	--	11-08	--	--	11-03	--	--	11-03	09-27	09-26	11-04	--	11-05	10-14	10-25	--	10-29	11-05	--	11-04	11-04	11-05	11-03	11-03	11-03	--	09-30	11-04	11-05	10-25	--	10-11	--	11-03	11-04	10-13	--	--	11-03	11-03	--	10-13	--	11-01	10-18	--	10-12	--	10-17	--	--	10-09	--	--	11-03	10-20	11-03	11-03	11-05	09-30	11-05	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-05	11-03	11-04	11-03	11-03	11-09	11-02	10-25	--	10-13	11-03	10-25	11-03	11-03	--	--	--	--	10-09	11-03	11-05	--	10-18	11-05	11-03	11-04	10-29	11-04	--	--	--	11-03	10-18	11-04	--	10-21	11-03	--	11-05	11-06	11-05	--	--	--	10-25	11-05	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-29	11-05	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	11-08	11-05	--	10-04	--	--	11-05	11-03	10-22	11-03	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment		29	82		62			20			191	28		37	77	72			641	64	163	99	55	235	48	135		441		50			71	321			46		57	70	159	144	49		52		40			131		28		128	148	53	25		62		23	20	69	21	299	145	20				54		30	165	29	249	59		252				29		115	31	225	78			32	16				37	55	75	28			57	41	129	71		25		28			71	32		44			65			77				49		43		53	24			59		17			30		285		360	152		85	541	255			63	99	529				14	612	61		30	19		20			94			36	55	392	87		22	51	159		49	111		94	124	38	60	88	133		609	68	41	256		64		84	90	101			97	43		41		19	196		64		199			67			18	242	234	86	31	184	38		435	113		96				66	142	13	28	45	83	41	33		70	36	76	93	78					118	85	59		183	126	196	31	33	161				67	177	46		15	94		21	22	105				47	9		138				261	166			135	58							8	91		22			320	92	34		137			142	37	14	32		65	41	130
Days since peak		40	48		54			44			62	71		39	49	51			39	39	57	64	48	63	29	44		46		60			62	47			12		71	74	50	41	43		51		36			62		39		46	41	56	41		64		45	41	42	41	41	40	39				41		41	50	42	61	39		42				39		40	46	44	38			55	42				11	64	78	38			14	64	45	64		41		47			78	50		41			49			41				39		47		41	39			64		41			41		42		48	76		68	78	42			36	15	77				49	83	49		41	38		36			41			41	78	79	40		39	61	50		46	39		40	40	39	41	41	41		75	40	39	50		64		41	40	62			41	41		62		43	57		63		58			66			41	55	41	41	39	75	39		76	43		41				39	41	40	41	41	35	42	50		62	41	50	41	41					66	41	39		57	39	41	40	46	40				41	57	40		54	41		39	38	39				50	39		62				46	39			55	58							46	70		51			54	36	39		71			39	41	53	41		64	41	69
Last total	690	1595	3997	1764	4025	3744	3726	1239	6876	9146	11318	2157	6437	2852	4288	4043	4102	7089	45621	3603	10535	5715	2868	16141	2744	7935	2068	31371	2578	1918	8171	2356	4697	16658	1808	7333	2695	2837	3663	5216	10683	8902	2166	4559	3080	4484	2894	2201	4928	6922	3542	1782	2743	10015	9992	2985	1445	1433	4227	2784	1225	1402	4140	1100	21094	10000	1465	1764	8475	2621	3809	3491	1505	8848	1350	13309	3629	3613	11980	9616	834	1989	1749	2716	4085	1923	10912	4305	2657	1509	1835	1035	2451	9207	3859	1681	3226	2916	1653	1578	2876	1114	2648	8228	3951	2762	1322	3649	1955	6224	2638	5058	1837	4503	2327	6095	1915	3917	6621	1221	4429	1614	2289	10029	2712	2472	2598	7948	2841	1853	6939	2318	4194	2380	1039	4745	3178	2151	2487	11562	4506	20885	8175	7226	4572	38243	19628	1195	5845	3040	4009	25160	7414	5018	815	1050	33321	3363	10726	1370	1172	4775	840	1000	2308	6229	5588	1573	2119	3441	16644	5030	10386	1137	3148	5667	1908	2741	5448	825	4720	7421	1982	2623	6695	9678	2151	18189	3923	2800	15742	3982	5322	5656	4387	5313	7892	3544	10910	4979	2253	2660	2288	3711	1103	13720	1789	3655	1459	12275	2503	2197	3606	1929	580	817	14224	13922	3352	1836	10997	2352	2160	27332	6381	5014	6688	1831	1531	1750	3522	7195	671	2171	3032	2420	1800	1762	2101	4043	1959	3976	6677	4457	3976	6447	2255	2528	8139	4560	3073	1458	11291	8353	11230	2235	1683	12045	1797	4614	6719	4562	10977	2444	1604	1123	4706	1985	1681	1217	5524	1937	5026	2967	2056	532	9413	9270	1988	1437	1833	14848	10663	8053	6953	8916	3609	2630	1998	2279	1681	2180	2170	530	5004	2336	1621	1872	4919	17902	5960	1930	2887	10543	2210	2873	9665	2041	1227	2171	3233	3657	2306	5969
Last daily increment	23	20	47	67	47	180	98	19	277	264	69	13	328	33	65	35	107	267	493	42	79	33	30	78	77	80	70	153	141	25	186	126	78	114	46	251	28	120	28	59	69	58	40	142	39	196	36	108	151	58	174	14	65	102	120	10	20	41	34	82	1	15	65	16	183	150	15	26	299	79	37	136	19	96	7	138	50	143	115	181	15	54	35	81	33	22	97	48	56	48	16	19	50	374	192	31	29	18	30	34	149	26	12	34	67	36	28	122	43	229	62	37	12	118	18	215	87	34	199	33	40	126	66	441	23	76	21	235	35	20	175	40	57	41	13	188	87	26	50	115	150	124	42	214	28	189	188	43	232	41	71	112	165	179	37	9	168	50	391	21	34	147	16	35	56	54	229	33	34	55	69	47	414	35	18	35	47	39	79	25	68	41	15	33	99	102	43	116	47	14	77	60	43	118	43	99	46	123	403	34	39	70	29	107	6	71	148	32	75	104	59	43	23	62	8	4	65	135	67	37	52	25	69	101	54	97	59	58	41	51	46	87	16	44	57	37	33	22	33	29	38	26	74	76	238	216	45	84	34	49	52	41	68	50	165	33	23	77	48	178	130	47	44	22	59	14	55	60	18	25	145	56	272	121	14	10	326	52	64	48	41	91	115	324	202	80	58	76	44	66	41	56	87	15	30	58	20	53	110	94	70	31	58	68	57	104	123	17	20	30	88	28	18	23
Last week	74	65	214	224	206	761	492	117	1243	1088	340	63	1354	192	239	154	458	1248	2193	189	308	196	163	374	248	344	317	809	613	142	871	467	346	524	196	1222	198	567	139	256	306	272	148	569	192	872	131	417	734	259	670	77	259	437	486	106	95	162	184	271	8	68	228	84	701	575	56	168	1312	322	144	537	90	472	34	567	187	647	574	838	89	192	123	306	196	107	431	312	248	181	76	71	259	1709	849	197	129	108	126	145	513	134	79	175	233	224	107	526	154	1007	271	137	52	433	96	951	278	126	928	127	170	542	282	1902	98	342	99	903	151	108	770	166	168	256	37	678	311	133	226	439	636	611	146	988	209	915	815	129	939	157	328	448	669	964	168	50	783	220	1982	72	136	708	70	114	242	239	964	163	118	206	414	221	1684	138	114	148	204	201	273	80	223	224	73	117	478	466	179	512	196	99	393	325	219	561	164	443	269	409	1871	162	104	315	125	506	53	395	482	144	333	547	216	202	130	238	42	33	339	628	208	154	186	94	331	710	276	552	313	176	167	208	236	411	44	156	255	156	131	135	162	144	192	168	383	254	809	875	240	288	191	237	197	153	258	294	730	136	141	352	260	753	910	280	189	88	242	87	219	166	93	88	653	244	1205	593	47	49	1450	259	304	181	163	428	499	1354	907	327	238	323	195	300	152	211	309	54	176	267	96	162	484	484	375	110	252	258	272	367	628	61	84	155	401	140	120	131
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																																	75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																																	7	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-15 to 2020-12-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-14	690	1595	3997	1764	4025	3744	3726	1239	6876	9146	11318	2157	6437	2852	4288	4043	4102	7089	45621	3603	10535	5715	2868	16141	2744	7935	2068	31371	2578	1918	8171	2356	4697	16658	1808	7333	2695	2837	3663	5216	10683	8902	2166	4559	3080	4484	2894	2201	4928	6922	3542	1782	2743	10015	9992	2985	1445	1433	4227	2784	1225	1402	4140	1100	21094	10000	1465	1764	8475	2621	3809	3491	1505	8848	1350	13309	3629	3613	11980	9616	834	1989	1749	2716	4085	1923	10912	4305	2657	1509	1835	1035	2451	9207	3859	1681	3226	2916	1653	1578	2876	1114	2648	8228	3951	2762	1322	3649	1955	6224	2638	5058	1837	4503	2327	6095	1915	3917	6621	1221	4429	1614	2289	10029	2712	2472	2598	7948	2841	1853	6939	2318	4194	2380	1039	4745	3178	2151	2487	11562	4506	20885	8175	7226	4572	38243	19628	1195	5845	3040	4009	25160	7414	5018	815	1050	33321	3363	10726	1370	1172	4775	840	1000	2308	6229	5588	1573	2119	3441	16644	5030	10386	1137	3148	5667	1908	2741	5448	825	4720	7421	1982	2623	6695	9678	2151	18189	3923	2800	15742	3982	5322	5656	4387	5313	7892	3544	10910	4979	2253	2660	2288	3711	1103	13720	1789	3655	1459	12275	2503	2197	3606	1929	580	817	14224	13922	3352	1836	10997	2352	2160	27332	6381	5014	6688	1831	1531	1750	3522	7195	671	2171	3032	2420	1800	1762	2101	4043	1959	3976	6677	4457	3976	6447	2255	2528	8139	4560	3073	1458	11291	8353	11230	2235	1683	12045	1797	4614	6719	4562	10977	2444	1604	1123	4706	1985	1681	1217	5524	1937	5026	2967	2056	532	9413	9270	1988	1437	1833	14848	10663	8053	6953	8916	3609	2630	1998	2279	1681	2180	2170	530	5004	2336	1621	1872	4919	17902	5960	1930	2887	10543	2210	2873	9665	2041	1227	2171	3233	3657	2306	5969
2020-12-15	706	1602	4016	1796	4037	3942	3831	1253	7120	9310	11370	2167	6816	2878	4326	4068	4184	7131	45870	3634	10610	5739	2890	16240	2802	7937	2138	31610	2688	1936	8336	2462	4774	16660	1824	7553	2716	2837	3674	5234	10760	9011	2184	4604	3095	4652	2910	2296	5132	6957	3683	1796	2782	10040	9990	3010	1457	1469	4258	2829	1227	1412	4169	1113	21220	10080	1475	1809	8641	2685	3862	3586	1519	8914	1357	13380	3629	3756	12010	9670	850	2018	1749	2761	4118	1940	10980	4352	2698	1529	1845	1049	2494	9590	4057	1712	3241	2933	1669	1587	3008	1123	2659	8237	3951	2796	1338	3736	1976	6394	2638	5080	1847	4590	2340	6276	1955	3936	6663	1249	4458	1754	2289	10570	2727	2538	2605	8088	2861	1870	7038	2337	4217	2406	1039	4745	3225	2168	2487	11640	4627	21030	8188	7226	4597	38460	19750	1228	5967	3056	4073	25200	7531	5174	852	1056	33510	3363	10780	1383	1189	4913	850	1023	2357	6266	5688	1599	2135	3461	16710	5073	10600	1154	3158	5678	1933	2778	5494	837	4785	7529	1994	2642	6764	9750	2180	18260	3955	2820	15770	4034	5354	5704	4411	5407	7927	3636	11210	5007	2279	2708	2305	3785	1110	13800	1893	3676	1515	12310	2537	2223	3616	1967	586	822	14260	14050	3379	1836	11030	2366	2212	27480	6396	5109	6724	1847	1546	1786	3552	7232	675	2190	3071	2438	1814	1779	2135	4070	1988	3987	6732	4489	4140	6447	2273	2583	8176	4613	3091	1486	11360	8396	11350	2251	1705	12120	1823	4753	6856	4602	11020	2469	1643	1133	4733	2026	1691	1228	5553	1990	5295	3068	2065	539	9560	9281	2050	1462	1857	14970	10720	8053	7071	8923	3642	2695	2033	2289	1709	2224	2249	537	5005	2387	1641	1906	4922	18030	6014	1944	2924	10540	2252	2933	9740	2050	1236	2189	3289	3662	2319	5982
2020-12-16	721	1609	4052	1824	4066	4135	3928	1267	7395	9530	11420	2177	7193	2903	4362	4092	4275	7368	46220	3663	10660	5775	2911	16300	2844	7981	2195	31750	2794	1952	8495	2584	4844	16690	1856	7762	2737	2913	3695	5272	10820	9063	2200	4704	3121	4811	2924	2394	5297	6991	3812	1809	2824	10100	10050	3032	1469	1504	4288	2871	1229	1421	4196	1126	21350	10160	1485	1845	8794	2743	3884	3677	1532	8977	1363	13480	3650	3897	12090	9810	865	2046	1763	2818	4150	1957	11050	4397	2743	1561	1855	1063	2535	9950	4274	1743	3260	2949	1684	1612	3134	1129	2670	8257	3984	2830	1353	3821	1995	6619	2672	5100	1857	4669	2353	6486	1996	3955	6813	1268	4486	1898	2320	11070	2741	2600	2626	8243	2880	1887	7131	2361	4239	2431	1043	4792	3278	2185	2520	11720	4745	21130	8209	7354	4621	38610	19880	1258	6199	3075	4134	25260	7646	5380	889	1062	33670	3407	11010	1396	1205	5048	859	1044	2401	6302	5779	1624	2151	3495	16770	5114	10960	1169	3179	5688	1955	2814	5537	856	4824	7588	2006	2661	6830	9830	2209	18330	3987	2839	15800	4084	5389	5787	4434	5495	7965	3722	11500	5033	2303	2764	2320	3895	1117	13860	1993	3698	1562	12410	2568	2248	3637	2011	592	827	14320	14170	3404	1870	11050	2380	2271	27580	6446	5200	6782	1877	1559	1825	3581	7303	679	2209	3108	2455	1840	1796	2167	4096	2016	4009	6785	4540	4361	6558	2289	2636	8214	4661	3123	1512	11410	8439	11470	2266	1750	12180	1865	4920	6993	4639	11040	2492	1679	1143	4776	2064	1701	1240	5650	2040	5569	3168	2073	546	9790	9320	2110	1484	1881	15060	10790	8196	7268	8970	3673	2758	2065	2320	1735	2265	2326	544	5037	2437	1658	1938	5011	18110	6066	1957	2969	10570	2297	3007	9840	2059	1244	2207	3344	3688	2332	5994
2020-12-17	736	1618	4081	1854	4095	4338	4027	1280	7682	9720	11480	2187	7536	2929	4399	4116	4366	7604	46560	3693	10700	5804	2931	16360	2889	8025	2259	31910	2902	1969	8657	2682	4915	16730	1890	7980	2758	2980	3714	5316	10850	9112	2216	4824	3162	4970	2939	2479	5481	7026	3942	1823	2867	10180	10120	3051	1481	1540	4317	2914	1232	1430	4222	1138	21470	10240	1494	1884	8947	2799	3907	3769	1545	9040	1369	13560	3681	4041	12170	9940	881	2074	1782	2874	4182	1973	11110	4442	2799	1596	1865	1086	2573	10300	4483	1774	3288	2965	1700	1642	3264	1137	2680	8268	4018	2864	1369	3905	2014	6867	2702	5116	1866	4750	2366	6690	2038	3974	6960	1292	4514	2055	2334	11640	2756	2665	2644	8415	2900	1903	7225	2389	4262	2458	1047	4839	3340	2201	2546	11790	4865	21230	8234	7477	4645	38760	20010	1289	6440	3104	4195	25320	7762	5578	927	1068	33800	3436	11260	1409	1221	5186	868	1065	2445	6337	5864	1650	2166	3526	16840	5155	11320	1185	3194	5700	1978	2850	5580	869	4874	7641	2018	2680	6894	9900	2238	18400	4019	2858	15840	4135	5422	5863	4457	5581	8023	3809	11790	5060	2326	2834	2336	3984	1124	13910	2098	3719	1622	12500	2601	2272	3659	2062	597	832	14370	14260	3430	1892	11080	2393	2341	27690	6495	5293	6823	1908	1572	1861	3610	7367	683	2228	3145	2472	1866	1813	2198	4121	2044	4023	6837	4595	4621	6716	2306	2690	8249	4688	3156	1538	11440	8481	11570	2281	1780	12240	1914	5089	7127	4678	11060	2505	1716	1153	4814	2103	1711	1252	5760	2091	5884	3272	2081	553	10070	9361	2170	1505	1904	15140	10850	8309	7515	9024	3704	2821	2096	2367	1760	2307	2414	550	5066	2487	1676	1969	5102	18180	6118	1969	3015	10610	2342	3077	9950	2069	1252	2223	3402	3710	2344	6007
2020-12-18	750	1627	4106	1881	4126	4543	4125	1293	7988	9940	11520	2197	7883	2953	4435	4140	4452	7826	46870	3722	10750	5836	2951	16420	2928	8075	2321	32050	3007	1984	8815	2778	4981	16760	1923	8193	2778	3068	3736	5357	10900	9155	2232	4930	3190	5125	2953	2561	5657	7059	4067	1836	2907	10240	10200	3071	1492	1576	4347	2957	1234	1439	4247	1150	21590	10310	1504	1923	9092	2853	3924	3860	1557	9100	1376	13640	3708	4187	12270	10100	896	2101	1803	2929	4214	1990	11170	4486	2856	1615	1875	1101	2611	10630	4705	1805	3300	2980	1715	1674	3395	1142	2691	8277	4043	2897	1384	3988	2032	7100	2739	5138	1876	4827	2378	6875	2081	3993	7140	1317	4541	2220	2364	12130	2770	2728	2657	8595	2918	1919	7315	2415	4284	2484	1054	4892	3397	2217	2574	11860	4984	21320	8254	7609	4668	38900	20120	1319	6695	3124	4255	25400	7878	5772	965	1074	33930	3466	11530	1422	1236	5323	876	1086	2488	6372	5947	1674	2180	3555	16900	5196	11680	1200	3210	5711	1999	2886	5620	891	4921	7688	2029	2699	6957	9970	2267	18460	4050	2878	15860	4185	5464	5954	4478	5665	8073	3896	12080	5086	2349	2888	2351	4071	1130	13970	2203	3739	1695	12570	2636	2296	3679	2103	603	837	14420	14380	3455	1911	11110	2406	2407	27800	6529	5385	6884	1934	1584	1910	3637	7412	687	2247	3181	2488	1885	1829	2228	4147	2071	4046	6888	4647	4899	6844	2321	2742	8270	4725	3188	1564	11470	8523	11700	2295	1800	12300	1962	5248	7262	4715	11080	2522	1750	1162	4849	2141	1720	1264	5866	2142	6198	3376	2088	560	10330	9397	2230	1524	1927	15210	10920	8457	7725	9063	3732	2884	2125	2413	1784	2348	2501	557	5085	2537	1693	2012	5191	18260	6169	1981	3057	10650	2385	3157	10070	2078	1259	2240	3460	3726	2356	6018
2020-12-19	764	1636	4127	1909	4149	4757	4225	1306	8235	10110	11570	2207	8086	2978	4471	4164	4521	7963	47130	3751	10780	5866	2971	16470	2947	8123	2374	32170	3114	2000	8977	2881	5048	16810	1949	8413	2798	3129	3752	5391	10930	9194	2247	5039	3208	5281	2967	2648	5805	7093	4194	1849	2939	10280	10260	3085	1503	1612	4376	2999	1236	1448	4271	1162	21710	10390	1513	1953	9239	2907	3942	3953	1569	9160	1382	13700	3725	4339	12320	10220	912	2129	1812	2985	4245	2006	11240	4530	2900	1645	1885	1114	2648	10920	4892	1836	3316	2996	1730	1691	3532	1147	2701	8288	4065	2931	1399	4072	2050	7270	2771	5161	1885	4904	2391	7034	2125	4012	7289	1340	4569	2399	2377	12790	2784	2793	2665	8723	2937	1936	7407	2440	4305	2511	1058	4953	3455	2233	2592	11930	5107	21420	8270	7773	4691	39000	20220	1350	6912	3145	4315	25440	7995	5925	1006	1080	34020	3485	11750	1435	1252	5463	885	1108	2531	6406	6032	1699	2195	3581	16960	5237	11970	1215	3222	5722	2021	2922	5661	905	4952	7738	2041	2718	7020	10020	2297	18530	4082	2897	15890	4234	5488	6036	4500	5749	8111	3984	12370	5112	2371	2954	2366	4143	1136	14030	2313	3760	1752	12640	2657	2320	3696	2144	609	842	14460	14470	3480	1924	11120	2419	2458	27890	6549	5478	6915	1962	1596	1947	3665	7465	691	2266	3218	2504	1897	1845	2258	4172	2098	4082	6939	4702	5171	6968	2337	2795	8295	4752	3207	1590	11500	8566	11770	2308	1819	12350	2019	5377	7398	4752	11100	2542	1785	1171	4874	2179	1729	1276	5939	2194	6540	3483	2096	566	10590	9426	2290	1544	1950	15270	11000	8590	7929	9100	3762	2948	2153	2456	1807	2389	2595	564	5116	2589	1710	2034	5279	18320	6220	1993	3095	10680	2422	3222	10150	2087	1267	2256	3519	3742	2369	6030
2020-12-20	777	1644	4158	1937	4179	4982	4328	1319	8509	10320	11630	2216	8398	3002	4507	4188	4583	8168	47420	3780	10810	5887	2991	16510	2960	8168	2441	32270	3224	2016	9142	3010	5115	16840	1979	8639	2819	3194	3772	5423	10960	9229	2262	5150	3230	5440	2980	2738	5957	7127	4324	1862	2976	10330	10330	3096	1515	1649	4406	3043	1239	1458	4296	1173	21830	10470	1523	1985	9390	2961	3960	4048	1582	9221	1388	13760	3752	4496	12370	10360	928	2156	1824	3043	4277	2022	11300	4574	2964	1674	1895	1128	2685	11240	5107	1867	3332	3012	1745	1706	3674	1152	2711	8299	4092	2965	1415	4156	2069	7467	2804	5178	1894	4982	2404	7223	2170	4030	7442	1360	4596	2593	2391	13480	2798	2860	2674	8884	2955	1952	7500	2467	4327	2538	1058	5015	3513	2249	2603	12010	5232	21500	8282	7925	4715	39100	20320	1381	7161	3162	4376	25490	8115	6116	1048	1087	34110	3502	11990	1449	1268	5608	894	1129	2573	6441	6118	1724	2209	3598	17020	5277	12300	1229	3240	5733	2042	2959	5702	925	4985	7789	2053	2737	7083	10080	2326	18600	4113	2917	15920	4284	5511	6102	4522	5833	8138	4075	12670	5138	2394	3020	2381	4223	1142	14070	2429	3781	1803	12690	2688	2344	3714	2181	614	847	14500	14550	3505	1938	11140	2432	2516	27980	6593	5572	6964	1992	1608	1984	3693	7517	695	2285	3255	2520	1902	1861	2289	4198	2125	4102	6991	4752	5501	7098	2352	2850	8311	4778	3220	1617	11530	8608	11830	2322	1838	12400	2063	5521	7535	4789	11110	2556	1819	1180	4896	2219	1738	1288	6022	2247	6887	3595	2103	573	10840	9458	2350	1563	1973	15310	11070	8756	8162	9148	3791	3014	2181	2515	1831	2432	2681	570	5128	2641	1727	2066	5383	18390	6271	2005	3140	10710	2461	3287	10220	2097	1275	2272	3579	3757	2381	6042
2020-12-21	791	1653	4199	1966	4218	5217	4433	1332	8779	10550	11680	2226	8736	3027	4543	4212	4679	8390	47850	3810	10890	5916	3012	16580	3032	8235	2512	32420	3336	2031	9310	3123	5182	16930	2023	8871	2839	3343	3798	5470	11040	9292	2278	5234	3266	5603	2994	2825	6116	7160	4458	1875	3015	10420	10420	3110	1526	1687	4436	3087	1241	1467	4320	1185	21950	10540	1532	2009	9543	3016	3997	4146	1594	9282	1395	13880	3789	4660	12470	10510	944	2184	1850	3117	4309	2038	11360	4619	3006	1706	1905	1140	2722	11570	5304	1899	3356	3028	1761	1737	3822	1157	2722	8332	4151	2999	1430	4241	2087	7611	2866	5206	1904	5060	2417	7389	2216	4049	7655	1391	4624	2803	2447	13760	2812	2928	2692	9095	2974	1968	7595	2489	4348	2565	1067	5228	3585	2264	2645	12080	5361	21610	8318	8168	4738	39270	20480	1414	7331	3196	4436	25590	8236	6323	1091	1093	34260	3540	12410	1462	1283	5757	903	1152	2616	6475	6205	1749	2224	3644	17080	5318	12700	1244	3258	5744	2063	2995	5743	944	5038	7827	2065	2756	7146	10170	2357	18670	4145	2936	15950	4334	5551	6191	4544	5918	8180	4168	12980	5164	2416	3075	2396	4292	1149	14140	2551	3802	1878	12790	2735	2368	3732	2233	620	852	14560	14660	3530	1967	11180	2445	2590	28080	6642	5669	7014	2037	1620	2029	3721	7597	699	2305	3291	2536	1932	1877	2319	4223	2152	4128	7042	4806	5639	7314	2367	2905	8344	4821	3266	1644	11590	8650	11990	2336	1856	12470	2106	5684	7673	4826	11150	2576	1854	1189	4941	2259	1748	1301	6152	2302	7153	3710	2111	580	11110	9506	2412	1583	1997	15410	11170	9150	8308	9211	3820	3081	2209	2565	1855	2475	2736	577	5154	2695	1744	2109	5476	18480	6323	2016	3189	10760	2510	3380	10330	2106	1282	2288	3640	3780	2393	6054

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-15 to 2020-12-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-14	690	1595	3997	1764	4025	3744	3726	1239	6876	9146	11318	2157	6437	2852	4288	4043	4102	7089	45621	3603	10535	5715	2868	16141	2744	7935	2068	31371	2578	1918	8171	2356	4697	16658	1808	7333	2695	2837	3663	5216	10683	8902	2166	4559	3080	4484	2894	2201	4928	6922	3542	1782	2743	10015	9992	2985	1445	1433	4227	2784	1225	1402	4140	1100	21094	10000	1465	1764	8475	2621	3809	3491	1505	8848	1350	13309	3629	3613	11980	9616	834	1989	1749	2716	4085	1923	10912	4305	2657	1509	1835	1035	2451	9207	3859	1681	3226	2916	1653	1578	2876	1114	2648	8228	3951	2762	1322	3649	1955	6224	2638	5058	1837	4503	2327	6095	1915	3917	6621	1221	4429	1614	2289	10029	2712	2472	2598	7948	2841	1853	6939	2318	4194	2380	1039	4745	3178	2151	2487	11562	4506	20885	8175	7226	4572	38243	19628	1195	5845	3040	4009	25160	7414	5018	815	1050	33321	3363	10726	1370	1172	4775	840	1000	2308	6229	5588	1573	2119	3441	16644	5030	10386	1137	3148	5667	1908	2741	5448	825	4720	7421	1982	2623	6695	9678	2151	18189	3923	2800	15742	3982	5322	5656	4387	5313	7892	3544	10910	4979	2253	2660	2288	3711	1103	13720	1789	3655	1459	12275	2503	2197	3606	1929	580	817	14224	13922	3352	1836	10997	2352	2160	27332	6381	5014	6688	1831	1531	1750	3522	7195	671	2171	3032	2420	1800	1762	2101	4043	1959	3976	6677	4457	3976	6447	2255	2528	8139	4560	3073	1458	11291	8353	11230	2235	1683	12045	1797	4614	6719	4562	10977	2444	1604	1123	4706	1985	1681	1217	5524	1937	5026	2967	2056	532	9413	9270	1988	1437	1833	14848	10663	8053	6953	8916	3609	2630	1998	2279	1681	2180	2170	530	5004	2336	1621	1872	4919	17902	5960	1930	2887	10543	2210	2873	9665	2041	1227	2171	3233	3657	2306	5969
2020-12-15	705	1607	4032	1806	4061	3881	3820	1256	7084	9330	11370	2166	6717	2881	4334	4068	4178	7260	45970	3633	10590	5744	2892	16200	2794	7986	2130	31500	2693	1938	8331	2448	4759	16740	1840	7539	2722	2928	3682	5262	10740	8953	2188	4658	3109	4637	2916	2291	5057	6964	3671	1796	2787	10080	10070	3000	1461	1463	4263	2832	1227	1413	4177	1114	21230	10100	1475	1795	8700	2676	3837	3586	1521	8926	1356	13410	3664	3732	12060	9760	848	2022	1766	2775	4109	1946	10990	4354	2701	1542	1847	1048	2490	9530	4018	1715	3250	2933	1674	1598	2977	1135	2662	8255	3989	2802	1340	3744	1979	6390	2677	5081	1845	4580	2343	6267	1970	3941	6776	1246	4459	1731	2341	10400	2728	2531	2615	8125	2866	1874	7066	2351	4226	2413	1044	4850	3239	2170	2517	11640	4619	20990	8197	7389	4605	38410	19750	1220	6019	3067	4067	25230	7527	5183	847	1058	33470	3389	11040	1384	1192	4905	852	1023	2349	6274	5743	1598	2140	3480	16700	5065	10680	1158	3165	5689	1942	2775	5497	837	4772	7460	1995	2643	6779	9760	2181	18270	3953	2818	15800	4034	5351	5747	4414	5386	7934	3622	11250	5006	2274	2724	2308	3798	1112	13790	1895	3677	1535	12360	2543	2232	3626	1972	587	821	14280	14030	3388	1860	11030	2368	2216	27440	6421	5103	6740	1862	1561	1788	3560	7262	678	2195	3075	2444	1818	1782	2130	4072	2000	3998	6740	4501	4131	6586	2296	2585	8173	4612	3109	1487	11340	8397	11350	2257	1702	12110	1839	4753	6859	4607	11000	2459	1646	1135	4738	2018	1694	1231	5609	1976	5287	3074	2062	539	9670	9303	2043	1468	1857	14930	10740	8290	7122	8967	3649	2685	2024	2331	1705	2217	2221	541	5034	2377	1638	1903	4995	17980	6020	1950	2931	10580	2259	2938	9770	2052	1239	2193	3305	3677	2323	5991
2020-12-16	714	1615	4061	1832	4090	4007	3904	1269	7277	9490	11420	2175	6969	2906	4371	4091	4246	7431	46280	3661	10640	5774	2914	16250	2833	8025	2182	31620	2795	1955	8465	2523	4805	16800	1868	7719	2743	3022	3702	5296	10790	8997	2205	4728	3134	4767	2932	2349	5170	6996	3779	1808	2817	10140	10130	3019	1473	1487	4289	2867	1229	1422	4197	1123	21330	10170	1484	1819	8883	2721	3862	3662	1533	8987	1362	13500	3684	3843	12130	9870	861	2045	1779	2818	4138	1958	11040	4402	2732	1564	1857	1055	2526	9800	4154	1742	3269	2948	1689	1620	3064	1152	2673	8278	4016	2839	1355	3826	2000	6527	2705	5099	1851	4636	2357	6424	2012	3962	6890	1263	4486	1839	2376	10710	2741	2580	2631	8254	2885	1890	7168	2371	4245	2450	1047	4934	3279	2185	2544	11690	4712	21100	8217	7531	4632	38570	19880	1235	6151	3085	4127	25290	7618	5370	875	1062	33610	3422	11340	1398	1207	5014	862	1037	2377	6310	5872	1619	2156	3513	16750	5097	10920	1173	3183	5714	1968	2813	5535	849	4797	7496	2006	2660	6846	9830	2209	18340	3982	2837	15840	4075	5385	5822	4434	5448	7971	3679	11520	5029	2286	2763	2324	3865	1118	13850	1970	3697	1580	12450	2571	2262	3642	2008	592	826	14330	14130	3415	1886	11050	2381	2261	27550	6455	5174	6789	1881	1580	1819	3594	7324	681	2214	3113	2462	1843	1800	2154	4095	2032	4019	6794	4532	4241	6691	2326	2623	8210	4655	3139	1507	11380	8438	11460	2271	1735	12160	1875	4868	7007	4643	11030	2473	1683	1146	4773	2039	1703	1243	5701	2010	5499	3168	2066	546	9860	9335	2099	1490	1882	15010	10800	8516	7260	9008	3678	2734	2047	2355	1725	2245	2258	547	5064	2416	1650	1922	5067	18060	6067	1961	2965	10600	2300	2992	9860	2061	1247	2210	3363	3699	2336	6008
2020-12-17	723	1623	4088	1860	4117	4136	3980	1282	7482	9630	11460	2184	7222	2933	4408	4116	4313	7607	46580	3689	10690	5803	2937	16300	2874	8066	2235	31740	2881	1974	8600	2595	4843	16870	1896	7901	2796	3118	3721	5334	10830	9038	2220	4802	3168	4899	2946	2400	5287	7027	3874	1821	2850	10210	10190	3037	1484	1510	4314	2902	1231	1431	4217	1133	21440	10250	1492	1847	9066	2775	3887	3740	1544	9053	1367	13580	3711	3954	12200	9990	875	2069	1796	2858	4165	1974	11100	4444	2766	1590	1869	1067	2562	10080	4292	1769	3295	2963	1706	1646	3152	1167	2685	8296	4044	2876	1370	3911	2020	6666	2733	5115	1857	4691	2372	6580	2052	3976	7020	1281	4513	1953	2416	11010	2755	2627	2647	8392	2904	1907	7270	2392	4264	2485	1050	5018	3319	2200	2570	11750	4807	21190	8237	7679	4670	38700	20010	1249	6298	3108	4186	25350	7709	5553	904	1068	33730	3448	11660	1412	1222	5125	871	1051	2406	6346	6001	1639	2172	3543	16800	5128	11190	1189	3199	5740	1993	2851	5570	856	4832	7531	2017	2675	6919	9900	2237	18410	4011	2856	15890	4116	5418	5900	4454	5513	8016	3738	11790	5052	2297	2809	2339	3935	1124	13900	2047	3717	1638	12540	2600	2294	3659	2048	600	831	14380	14200	3436	1904	11070	2394	2311	27650	6490	5243	6830	1900	1599	1844	3630	7381	685	2233	3152	2478	1867	1817	2178	4120	2064	4035	6849	4566	4363	6807	2359	2661	8244	4687	3169	1526	11420	8483	11560	2286	1759	12210	1919	4989	7157	4680	11050	2482	1716	1156	4802	2060	1713	1255	5800	2046	5715	3265	2072	552	10100	9367	2154	1511	1900	15070	10870	8708	7408	9052	3707	2782	2069	2400	1745	2273	2307	554	5090	2455	1661	1940	5144	18120	6122	1971	2999	10640	2340	3042	9950	2068	1256	2226	3417	3718	2350	6023
2020-12-18	732	1631	4114	1889	4145	4269	4062	1295	7701	9790	11510	2193	7477	2957	4444	4139	4381	7783	46870	3716	10740	5832	2964	16360	2912	8110	2290	31860	2973	1992	8734	2669	4890	16930	1925	8085	2807	3221	3741	5372	10880	9077	2235	4872	3195	5031	2961	2453	5403	7059	3979	1833	2883	10270	10250	3056	1495	1534	4350	2936	1233	1440	4239	1142	21550	10320	1501	1876	9252	2822	3910	3817	1556	9110	1373	13660	3736	4067	12280	10130	888	2091	1814	2898	4190	1992	11150	4490	2802	1604	1879	1076	2596	10360	4435	1802	3308	2979	1722	1674	3241	1186	2695	8313	4068	2913	1386	3999	2040	6804	2761	5133	1863	4745	2387	6731	2094	3995	7173	1299	4540	2073	2451	11290	2769	2673	2660	8539	2925	1923	7366	2414	4282	2523	1053	5104	3362	2215	2598	11800	4902	21270	8256	7829	4693	38830	20120	1270	6446	3128	4246	25410	7795	5737	935	1075	33840	3474	12010	1426	1237	5231	879	1065	2435	6381	6136	1659	2187	3572	16850	5159	11460	1203	3214	5764	2019	2889	5603	867	4864	7564	2028	2692	6990	9960	2263	18470	4038	2875	15930	4157	5458	5987	4474	5577	8061	3798	12070	5075	2309	2852	2355	4011	1130	13960	2127	3738	1707	12620	2627	2325	3674	2082	606	836	14430	14300	3462	1922	11100	2406	2359	27760	6523	5320	6883	1919	1620	1882	3658	7430	689	2253	3189	2496	1886	1834	2202	4145	2089	4057	6904	4599	4475	6909	2394	2701	8267	4725	3199	1546	11450	8524	11670	2300	1774	12260	1960	5109	7321	4717	11080	2493	1752	1167	4830	2081	1723	1267	5898	2078	5939	3367	2077	558	10320	9397	2211	1534	1921	15130	10930	8939	7550	9090	3736	2833	2091	2438	1765	2302	2357	563	5109	2495	1671	1964	5218	18200	6173	1981	3032	10680	2380	3101	10060	2079	1265	2247	3479	3736	2365	6039
2020-12-19	739	1639	4138	1909	4162	4405	4126	1308	7888	9900	11550	2201	7712	2980	4480	4161	4441	7927	47140	3744	10780	5860	2981	16410	2941	8145	2336	31980	3042	2008	8857	2745	4917	17000	1952	8247	2815	3314	3758	5404	10920	9119	2251	4933	3217	5166	2971	2507	5513	7090	4081	1844	2910	10310	10300	3073	1505	1558	4372	2971	1235	1450	4259	1151	21630	10390	1510	1899	9444	2856	3933	3893	1567	9157	1379	13710	3752	4186	12340	10240	902	2109	1823	2934	4215	2004	11200	4529	2833	1621	1889	1083	2632	10650	4568	1826	3322	2994	1737	1687	3332	1201	2701	8330	4087	2944	1401	4078	2060	6936	2788	5152	1869	4800	2401	6858	2136	4010	7266	1317	4568	2200	2474	11600	2780	2717	2669	8666	2943	1936	7455	2436	4301	2551	1056	5193	3395	2231	2624	11850	4998	21350	8272	7994	4706	38940	20210	1284	6587	3148	4307	25460	7888	5880	965	1083	33940	3493	12350	1440	1253	5332	887	1079	2463	6410	6267	1679	2203	3594	16900	5189	11670	1219	3227	5788	2044	2927	5637	878	4886	7593	2039	2706	7051	10020	2288	18540	4063	2894	15980	4199	5482	6056	4493	5628	8097	3857	12340	5098	2320	2891	2370	4056	1136	14010	2210	3758	1753	12670	2652	2358	3689	2115	612	840	14460	14370	3480	1934	11120	2418	2404	27860	6549	5407	6915	1938	1639	1907	3678	7480	692	2272	3223	2512	1899	1849	2219	4169	2112	4083	6951	4626	4583	6983	2425	2734	8292	4756	3222	1564	11490	8561	11750	2313	1785	12310	2004	5210	7447	4753	11100	2505	1784	1175	4850	2102	1732	1279	5970	2108	6179	3457	2084	563	10500	9424	2266	1551	1936	15170	11000	9128	7667	9124	3763	2883	2112	2465	1782	2331	2395	569	5132	2535	1681	1976	5278	18240	6215	1990	3065	10700	2414	3147	10120	2087	1272	2265	3537	3751	2376	6056
2020-12-20	746	1647	4164	1926	4183	4548	4193	1321	8061	10020	11600	2208	7977	3005	4516	4179	4502	8063	47420	3772	10820	5884	2995	16460	2971	8175	2390	32080	3104	2025	8986	2826	4946	17040	1980	8413	2825	3413	3776	5429	10970	9162	2266	4994	3240	5304	2982	2548	5625	7120	4184	1857	2937	10350	10350	3090	1515	1582	4396	3005	1237	1459	4276	1160	21710	10460	1519	1914	9648	2896	3958	3963	1577	9210	1384	13770	3773	4305	12390	10330	915	2129	1830	2973	4242	2020	11250	4566	2864	1638	1898	1090	2668	10940	4715	1849	3337	3010	1752	1695	3426	1216	2709	8350	4107	2978	1417	4158	2081	7073	2811	5170	1876	4856	2416	6998	2181	4025	7362	1334	4595	2337	2496	11970	2789	2758	2678	8803	2960	1952	7554	2456	4320	2577	1059	5283	3432	2246	2649	11900	5097	21410	8287	8133	4714	39030	20310	1296	6745	3166	4369	25520	7976	6046	998	1087	34040	3510	12630	1454	1268	5443	897	1093	2488	6440	6402	1700	2219	3610	16950	5220	11930	1234	3241	5814	2069	2966	5671	889	4906	7626	2049	2721	7111	10080	2312	18610	4089	2914	16020	4240	5508	6107	4513	5677	8130	3918	12630	5122	2331	2925	2386	4100	1142	14050	2298	3779	1791	12720	2677	2386	3703	2144	618	844	14500	14430	3500	1945	11140	2431	2452	27950	6581	5477	6954	1957	1656	1927	3700	7531	696	2292	3256	2527	1908	1864	2239	4191	2137	4102	6997	4653	4701	7071	2455	2765	8310	4786	3239	1584	11520	8599	11820	2326	1796	12360	2037	5320	7573	4788	11120	2516	1823	1182	4870	2120	1740	1291	6042	2138	6376	3553	2090	568	10690	9450	2322	1571	1950	15210	11060	9301	7788	9160	3789	2933	2134	2497	1799	2360	2439	575	5140	2576	1690	1995	5347	18300	6257	1998	3099	10720	2450	3186	10180	2093	1279	2278	3588	3766	2387	6072
2020-12-21	753	1655	4195	1945	4208	4695	4272	1335	8241	10160	11640	2219	8248	3029	4553	4208	4576	8210	47750	3801	10890	5912	3018	16520	3025	8221	2446	32210	3164	2043	9111	2907	4977	17110	2010	8596	2842	3534	3798	5466	11040	9219	2282	5058	3269	5446	2992	2597	5742	7149	4306	1873	2964	10420	10410	3108	1527	1606	4434	3040	1239	1469	4293	1169	21820	10530	1529	1935	9833	2945	3990	4036	1589	9277	1390	13860	3795	4435	12450	10420	929	2158	1844	3020	4268	2038	11300	4609	2893	1654	1908	1096	2704	11240	4866	1880	3356	3025	1768	1716	3523	1235	2718	8375	4138	3016	1433	4241	2101	7205	2839	5188	1882	4912	2432	7145	2224	4045	7495	1353	4623	2482	2539	12240	2801	2809	2692	8952	2980	1971	7656	2474	4338	2617	1062	5394	3474	2262	2679	11960	5197	21500	8309	8269	4724	39190	20450	1311	6860	3189	4432	25590	8072	6239	1032	1092	34180	3532	13040	1469	1283	5547	906	1108	2515	6479	6542	1720	2235	3643	16990	5252	12200	1249	3257	5842	2095	3006	5710	898	4936	7660	2059	2737	7182	10150	2343	18680	4116	2933	16070	4282	5546	6186	4534	5741	8170	3977	12930	5145	2343	2963	2402	4160	1148	14130	2389	3799	1848	12810	2708	2418	3716	2181	625	850	14560	14500	3528	1960	11170	2444	2505	28060	6617	5540	7001	1978	1674	1953	3733	7592	700	2311	3304	2542	1933	1880	2265	4217	2172	4126	7058	4691	4818	7164	2487	2800	8344	4826	3271	1604	11570	8642	11950	2339	1814	12430	2076	5428	7756	4822	11160	2529	1856	1189	4898	2142	1748	1304	6140	2173	6567	3660	2095	574	10880	9483	2385	1586	1969	15290	11140	9567	7897	9204	3822	2988	2156	2531	1818	2390	2494	581	5156	2618	1699	2016	5423	18380	6311	2005	3134	10760	2494	3241	10270	2104	1287	2293	3646	3784	2401	6087

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-14