COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-16

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	10-21	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	11-05	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-05	11-05	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-15	10-31	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	12-02	--	10-04	09-28	10-25	11-03	11-01	--	10-24	--	11-08	--	--	10-13	--	11-05	--	10-28	11-02	10-19	11-02	--	10-11	--	10-30	11-01	11-02	10-30	10-03	11-02	11-07	--	--	--	11-07	--	11-02	10-25	11-02	10-14	11-05	--	11-02	--	--	11-01	--	--	11-05	10-29	10-31	11-06	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	11-30	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	11-05	--	--	--	--	09-27	10-25	--	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-05	--	10-28	--	11-02	11-05	--	--	10-11	--	04-21	--	--	11-02	--	11-02	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-08	11-29	09-29	--	--	--	10-26	09-22	10-26	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-05	--	--	10-14	10-25	--	10-29	11-07	--	11-05	11-03	11-05	11-04	10-31	11-07	--	09-30	11-02	11-02	10-25	--	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	--	11-01	10-18	--	10-12	--	10-17	--	--	10-09	--	--	11-03	10-20	11-02	11-01	11-05	09-30	11-07	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-26	10-31	11-04	11-01	11-01	11-09	11-02	--	--	10-13	11-05	10-25	11-03	11-03	--	--	--	--	10-09	11-01	11-05	--	10-18	10-12	11-01	10-27	10-29	11-02	--	--	--	11-01	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	11-07	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-29	11-05	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	10-21	11-08	11-05	--	10-04	--	--	11-05	11-01	--	11-02	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment		28	82		62						191	28		36	77	72			633	63	163	99	55	235	48	135		441		50				321			58		57	69	159	141	49		52		41			131		27		127	145	53	24		62		23	20	69	20	293	144	22				54		29	165	29	249	58		252			38			111	31	225	77			32						55	75				50	41	129	71		24					71	32		44			65			75				48		43		52	23			59		16			29		285		360	152		85	542	254			62	101	529				14	612	61		29						91			36	55	392	86			51	159		49	112		92	121	37	58	88	133		609	67	40	256		64		82		101			94	43		41		19	196		64		199			67			17	242	231	85	30	184	38		435	113		95				66	141	12	27	44	86	41			70	36	76	89	76					118	82	58		183	125	193	31	33	160				66	177	46			90			21					47			138				261	164			135	58								91					320	94	33		137			140	37		31		65	41	130
Days since peak		56	50		56						64	73		41	51	53			41	41	59	66	50	65	31	46		48		62				49			14		73	79	52	43	45		53		38			64		41		49	44	58	44		66		47	45	44	47	74	44	39				39		44	52	44	63	41		44			45			41	48	46	40			57						66	80				16	66	47	66		41					80	52		43			51			43				41		49		44	41			66		239			44		44		50	78		70	80	44			38	17	78				51	85	51		43						44			44	80	81	41			63	52		48	39		41	43	41	42	46	39		77	44	44	52		66		43		64			43	51		64		45	59		65		60			68			43	57	44	45	41	77	39		78	45		44				51	46	42	45	45	37	44			64	41	52	43	43					68	45	41		59	65	45	50	48	44				45	59	48			43			39					52			64				48	41			57	60								72					56	38	41		73			41	45		44		66	43	71
Last total	729	1627	4105	1858	4096	4100	3996	1319	7388	9664	11440	2170	7077	2926	4368	4109	4308	7596	46507	3660	10651	5773	2913	16253	2834	8133	2194	31568	2823	1998	8575	2594	4898	16895	1897	7921	2748	3025	3720	5361	10791	8990	2250	4807	3152	4692	2955	2508	5242	7016	3822	1831	2893	10286	10180	3056	1490	1476	4310	2948	1235	1436	4280	1134	21358	10220	1486	1834	9119	2752	3878	3714	1548	9033	1378	13496	3712	3832	12167	10096	883	2038	1823	2841	4149	1951	11073	4443	2778	1590	1881	1088	2579	9819	4257	1792	3261	2969	1734	1637	3082	1173	2662	8316	4053	2871	1369	3855	2007	6671	2764	5135	1858	4760	2376	6519	2139	3953	6987	1277	4508	1773	2453	10756	2765	2636	2623	8383	2902	1902	7280	2405	4268	2472	1071	5073	3356	2194	2598	11736	4761	21060	8234	7722	4666	38567	19965	1283	6299	3096	4101	25379	7748	5319	913	1073	33631	3463	11487	1395	1214	5143	885	1060	2438	6338	6061	1639	2171	3509	16780	5140	11095	1196	3210	5726	1996	2796	5540	865	4841	7506	2010	2671	6875	9862	2253	18405	4017	2858	15890	4082	5428	5911	4474	5573	8005	3732	11684	5028	2303	2836	2324	3925	1119	13853	2073	3705	1651	12481	2625	2302	3674	2021	591	828	14359	14173	3440	1900	11103	2388	2352	27597	6460	5259	6817	1910	1629	1872	3578	7387	694	2217	3106	2473	1883	1865	2177	4117	2038	4043	6819	4597	4396	6918	2412	2667	8205	4650	3148	1547	11400	8460	11495	2286	1747	12160	1897	4929	7214	4698	11062	2475	1726	1169	4786	2122	1744	1247	5781	2071	5732	3219	2083	561	10026	9386	2136	1494	1908	15007	10855	8594	7478	9048	3714	2745	2082	2413	1729	2289	2302	572	5049	2416	1707	1992	5199	18032	6111	2012	3013	10659	2352	3001	9899	2078	1277	2210	3417	3716	2343	6056
Last daily increment	11	19	31	43	33	83	123	42	137	164	40	6	263	39	29	31	71	170	365	28	49	24	19	50	49	114	60	84	77	21	127	97	91	103	40	194	22	80	27	70	41	24	45	110	29	52	19	147	160	40	89	20	74	127	110	12	22	13	27	77	3	17	62	19	109	83	5	19	245	74	29	78	24	81	9	62	37	60	66	200	27	17	33	58	27	8	58	46	62	16	21	17	55	174	145	44	13	21	29	26	43	28	9	31	44	46	19	49	21	170	65	39	7	118	23	116	91	14	149	23	20	41	68	239	26	73	17	199	25	17	171	36	33	38	7	106	78	21	48	62	94	55	31	192	42	129	147	43	140	26	38	108	152	52	31	12	142	45	180	8	17	172	25	29	54	48	222	30	16	27	48	49	269	30	13	17	44	16	33	11	50	31	15	25	91	66	46	82	39	18	54	48	44	123	45	107	59	65	227	20	25	66	10	105	7	49	114	20	47	56	52	32	37	45	6	3	52	89	28	32	43	12	58	71	27	107	57	34	38	57	29	85	12	17	40	23	31	51	40	35	33	22	59	64	170	169	63	64	30	23	35	49	47	31	97	32	33	60	45	145	97	72	36	19	44	16	32	41	39	15	40	75	234	66	17	15	183	57	58	20	28	50	76	136	180	58	43	53	45	48	23	59	56	5	14	31	42	54	95	64	75	40	67	58	70	51	103	14	25	19	98	28	17	32
Last week	90	78	256	258	212	871	596	167	1376	1294	364	49	1572	201	245	168	514	1377	2327	178	328	180	155	360	240	453	362	702	645	177	1016	590	448	590	226	1395	128	584	153	318	310	262	195	663	185	784	159	616	815	283	756	99	333	522	585	133	110	148	211	367	14	82	312	101	741	614	60	182	1571	343	162	586	112	482	50	557	217	678	547	1078	109	178	160	348	166	108	443	333	307	211	92	100	297	1803	996	258	109	121	168	154	571	147	58	202	257	243	122	565	154	1113	316	176	60	575	120	1109	428	125	1046	154	192	585	361	2128	122	396	74	1115	161	120	868	222	212	256	61	802	423	129	257	471	701	562	154	1168	201	892	844	194	1121	163	309	529	815	936	229	67	788	227	2148	74	137	830	95	152	308	259	1175	176	133	207	402	254	1876	155	137	144	246	183	279	104	270	228	73	133	507	495	225	530	223	129	400	326	255	649	198	563	282	491	2125	161	131	417	113	567	53	391	656	141	444	532	286	248	151	257	36	30	361	675	244	154	243	108	424	719	249	643	347	207	227	281	188	448	50	148	245	160	159	195	188	172	193	189	387	333	1025	1081	334	359	176	229	200	207	281	280	737	144	129	349	284	831	1090	332	205	95	298	102	212	255	120	98	697	301	1620	650	59	59	1650	280	348	190	188	424	540	1523	1150	351	265	349	215	354	152	258	353	84	148	262	148	245	623	452	395	164	313	305	324	400	640	83	104	165	470	137	120	170
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																																																	75	75																																						68																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																																	7	14																																						7																																																																														2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-17 to 2020-12-23

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-16	729	1627	4105	1858	4096	4100	3996	1319	7388	9664	11440	2170	7077	2926	4368	4109	4308	7596	46507	3660	10651	5773	2913	16253	2834	8133	2194	31568	2823	1998	8575	2594	4898	16895	1897	7921	2748	3025	3720	5361	10791	8990	2250	4807	3152	4692	2955	2508	5242	7016	3822	1831	2893	10286	10180	3056	1490	1476	4310	2948	1235	1436	4280	1134	21358	10220	1486	1834	9119	2752	3878	3714	1548	9033	1378	13496	3712	3832	12167	10096	883	2038	1823	2841	4149	1951	11073	4443	2778	1590	1881	1088	2579	9819	4257	1792	3261	2969	1734	1637	3082	1173	2662	8316	4053	2871	1369	3855	2007	6671	2764	5135	1858	4760	2376	6519	2139	3953	6987	1277	4508	1773	2453	10756	2765	2636	2623	8383	2902	1902	7280	2405	4268	2472	1071	5073	3356	2194	2598	11736	4761	21060	8234	7722	4666	38567	19965	1283	6299	3096	4101	25379	7748	5319	913	1073	33631	3463	11487	1395	1214	5143	885	1060	2438	6338	6061	1639	2171	3509	16780	5140	11095	1196	3210	5726	1996	2796	5540	865	4841	7506	2010	2671	6875	9862	2253	18405	4017	2858	15890	4082	5428	5911	4474	5573	8005	3732	11684	5028	2303	2836	2324	3925	1119	13853	2073	3705	1651	12481	2625	2302	3674	2021	591	828	14359	14173	3440	1900	11103	2388	2352	27597	6460	5259	6817	1910	1629	1872	3578	7387	694	2217	3106	2473	1883	1865	2177	4117	2038	4043	6819	4597	4396	6918	2412	2667	8205	4650	3148	1547	11400	8460	11495	2286	1747	12160	1897	4929	7214	4698	11062	2475	1726	1169	4786	2122	1744	1247	5781	2071	5732	3219	2083	561	10026	9386	2136	1494	1908	15007	10855	8594	7478	9048	3714	2745	2082	2413	1729	2289	2302	572	5049	2416	1707	1992	5199	18032	6111	2012	3013	10659	2352	3001	9899	2078	1277	2210	3417	3716	2343	6056
2020-12-17	729	1637	4108	1913	4107	4316	4116	1345	7522	9660	11490	2180	7298	2954	4399	4130	4446	7760	46730	3690	10710	5803	2935	16350	2891	8133	2264	31840	2823	2026	8700	2710	4973	16960	1931	8195	2763	3117	3727	5428	10860	9036	2286	4928	3176	4845	2973	2606	5401	7053	3921	1846	2943	10380	10310	3069	1490	1501	4342	3015	1237	1447	4329	1150	21470	10240	1495	1834	9630	2874	3906	3796	1563	9102	1385	13580	3712	3966	12270	10110	904	2056	1841	2882	4180	1968	11140	4490	2824	1609	1881	1096	2638	10060	4667	1825	3288	2987	1750	1645	3183	1197	2672	8347	4053	2917	1387	3933	2016	7012	2812	5138	1866	4885	2395	6656	2205	3973	7305	1292	4539	1831	2542	11040	2781	2718	2640	8558	2924	1921	7391	2442	4268	2520	1071	5216	3409	2212	2652	11830	4836	21170	8248	7819	4695	38800	20070	1308	6362	3113	4152	25390	7871	5555	942	1081	33780	3463	11880	1409	1234	5312	902	1086	2496	6378	6294	1662	2189	3532	16850	5176	11100	1215	3215	5759	2036	2831	5581	884	4872	7543	2022	2690	6948	9930	2284	18480	4052	2879	15950	4126	5445	5947	4501	5678	8036	3803	11970	5055	2320	2900	2340	3970	1126	13930	2184	3727	1770	12530	2669	2339	3694	2075	600	833	14390	14250	3440	1922	11110	2392	2414	27730	6496	5333	6836	1928	1668	1923	3608	7413	707	2238	3144	2496	1883	1895	2231	4145	2059	4060	6877	4655	4562	7157	2412	2708	8247	4690	3166	1581	11450	8506	11610	2303	1767	12250	1964	5113	7375	4698	11100	2500	1780	1185	4812	2173	1768	1260	5803	2132	5882	3323	2094	574	10400	9389	2190	1502	1916	15100	10880	9030	7651	9048	3749	2814	2129	2413	1744	2339	2333	582	5072	2460	1724	2025	5265	18150	6169	2042	3070	10710	2408	3001	9970	2088	1298	2241	3417	3724	2359	6056
2020-12-18	739	1647	4140	1962	4139	4539	4234	1370	7730	9810	11540	2190	7522	2981	4434	4156	4555	7914	47070	3718	10760	5838	2956	16410	2927	8193	2335	31970	2899	2053	8826	2826	5038	17020	1963	8465	2775	3234	3752	5498	10910	9082	2318	5042	3207	5003	2989	2713	5559	7089	4020	1861	2999	10490	10430	3091	1505	1526	4373	3077	1240	1458	4373	1165	21580	10330	1504	1850	10090	2963	3933	3876	1577	9167	1392	13660	3742	4101	12380	10280	923	2077	1870	2923	4212	1985	11190	4535	2895	1624	1893	1103	2696	10310	5037	1879	3302	3004	1765	1677	3289	1219	2683	8375	4067	2963	1403	4010	2027	7326	2867	5162	1873	5005	2416	6794	2269	3992	7607	1314	4570	1895	2599	11320	2797	2797	2655	8728	2945	1938	7495	2476	4290	2568	1079	5357	3494	2229	2701	11900	4912	21230	8269	8038	4723	38960	20190	1332	6426	3134	4202	25470	7984	5751	978	1088	33900	3501	12360	1423	1252	5478	918	1112	2557	6417	6521	1684	2206	3564	16910	5215	11310	1232	3233	5790	2074	2866	5621	905	4906	7578	2034	2709	7017	10000	2316	18560	4085	2899	16020	4166	5489	6054	4526	5787	8087	3870	12270	5082	2336	2961	2356	4054	1132	14000	2296	3749	1887	12620	2711	2372	3712	2123	609	838	14440	14360	3476	1942	11140	2409	2474	27850	6533	5447	6903	1946	1704	1982	3637	7465	718	2258	3182	2518	1895	1932	2271	4172	2079	4089	6932	4708	4729	7382	2437	2768	8273	4730	3201	1614	11490	8550	11730	2320	1785	12310	2021	5286	7536	4742	11120	2516	1836	1203	4838	2219	1789	1272	5866	2191	6171	3430	2104	586	10740	9429	2245	1509	1939	15160	10940	9440	7831	9093	3783	2881	2175	2448	1758	2387	2391	591	5094	2504	1747	2076	5366	18230	6224	2068	3124	10780	2463	3029	10090	2098	1318	2270	3507	3743	2375	6075
2020-12-19	746	1657	4165	2006	4162	4787	4353	1395	7871	9900	11590	2199	7755	3008	4461	4176	4638	8082	47340	3747	10790	5866	2978	16440	2944	8246	2406	32070	2960	2080	8958	2949	5099	17100	1996	8741	2788	3321	3770	5562	10930	9128	2351	5160	3226	5165	3006	2819	5720	7125	4095	1876	3049	10570	10540	3105	1516	1551	4405	3141	1242	1469	4417	1180	21690	10410	1514	1857	10560	3052	3961	3959	1591	9233	1399	13720	3765	4238	12450	10420	942	2092	1886	2966	4243	2001	11250	4581	2958	1643	1904	1111	2755	10570	5415	1912	3316	3022	1781	1693	3401	1242	2693	8404	4078	3008	1420	4089	2039	7645	2920	5185	1881	5127	2431	6939	2335	4010	7862	1332	4588	1960	2649	11610	2812	2880	2661	8900	2966	1956	7599	2511	4315	2597	1085	5504	3569	2246	2751	11970	4989	21280	8284	8257	4750	39070	20290	1358	6493	3155	4252	25520	8096	5901	1008	1095	33970	3521	12750	1436	1271	5648	934	1139	2609	6455	6758	1707	2223	3591	16970	5247	11460	1249	3246	5822	2113	2901	5661	921	4935	7614	2045	2727	7086	10050	2350	18640	4118	2920	16070	4206	5516	6144	4551	5884	8125	3936	12580	5108	2352	3026	2372	4130	1139	14040	2411	3770	1980	12690	2754	2406	3730	2166	617	843	14490	14440	3495	1962	11160	2419	2539	27940	6569	5533	6934	1964	1743	2032	3666	7518	730	2278	3219	2540	1898	1961	2302	4199	2099	4124	6988	4761	4903	7553	2454	2820	8293	4754	3221	1648	11520	8595	11840	2335	1804	12360	2086	5418	7701	4781	11140	2531	1897	1218	4863	2266	1809	1285	5917	2251	6476	3541	2115	598	11120	9458	2302	1516	1963	15200	11000	9860	8026	9132	3816	2953	2221	2484	1772	2436	2429	601	5116	2548	1770	2106	5445	18270	6279	2094	3176	10830	2518	3042	10170	2108	1339	2301	3584	3759	2391	6093
2020-12-20	750	1667	4198	2048	4193	5037	4471	1420	8003	10010	11640	2209	7990	3034	4486	4197	4728	8242	47620	3775	10830	5886	2999	16490	2960	8288	2479	32190	3018	2106	9088	3073	5156	17160	2028	9019	2798	3409	3790	5618	10970	9174	2381	5276	3247	5333	3022	2907	5882	7160	4175	1890	3087	10660	10650	3117	1531	1577	4436	3204	1244	1479	4458	1195	21800	10480	1523	1867	11020	3135	3987	4041	1604	9296	1406	13790	3792	4377	12520	10570	960	2117	1895	3008	4274	2017	11290	4625	3032	1661	1913	1118	2813	10830	5798	1943	3329	3038	1796	1708	3513	1264	2703	8432	4088	3054	1437	4167	2052	7961	2961	5202	1888	5248	2452	7084	2399	4029	8135	1349	4612	2030	2707	11970	2827	2961	2670	9068	2986	1973	7699	2543	4338	2621	1085	5648	3641	2262	2799	12040	5066	21340	8300	8376	4776	39190	20390	1384	6560	3173	4302	25580	8201	6088	1045	1101	34060	3536	13110	1449	1289	5817	949	1165	2655	6493	6994	1729	2239	3609	17040	5282	11650	1266	3263	5853	2152	2936	5701	946	4958	7649	2057	2745	7153	10110	2376	18710	4150	2940	16120	4244	5541	6209	4575	5947	8152	3999	12880	5134	2367	3090	2388	4200	1146	14080	2527	3791	2075	12740	2795	2438	3747	2201	625	848	14530	14530	3524	1981	11180	2433	2602	28030	6604	5609	6975	1981	1780	2077	3694	7575	741	2297	3256	2561	1898	1991	2332	4225	2125	4153	7042	4810	5078	7707	2485	2869	8310	4779	3234	1682	11540	8638	11950	2350	1821	12410	2128	5569	7865	4828	11160	2545	1958	1232	4888	2309	1827	1297	5964	2309	6637	3653	2125	610	11470	9492	2360	1524	1974	15240	11050	10300	8214	9177	3847	3024	2266	2523	1785	2485	2472	611	5138	2592	1793	2145	5520	18340	6333	2119	3225	10890	2572	3066	10230	2118	1359	2331	3649	3774	2407	6117
2020-12-21	766	1676	4247	2115	4234	5299	4592	1445	8224	10160	11690	2219	8233	3060	4543	4227	4845	8405	48050	3803	10910	5914	3020	16560	3029	8356	2553	32350	3147	2132	9222	3203	5212	17270	2060	9305	2809	3586	3815	5683	11060	9221	2411	5394	3287	5507	3037	3046	6049	7195	4291	1904	3147	10770	10760	3143	1550	1603	4467	3268	1246	1490	4499	1210	21910	10600	1532	1883	11510	3219	4014	4124	1618	9360	1413	13910	3832	4521	12630	10720	978	2163	1923	3052	4305	2033	11390	4670	3108	1691	1927	1125	2873	11100	6207	1981	3356	3055	1811	1739	3628	1286	2713	8460	4127	3100	1453	4246	2064	8290	3029	5232	1896	5372	2475	7231	2465	4048	8519	1375	4650	2103	2776	12230	2842	3045	2689	9241	3006	1991	7797	2575	4385	2661	1094	5797	3731	2279	2848	12150	5144	21420	8332	8578	4803	39400	20560	1410	6628	3209	4352	25680	8307	6308	1091	1108	34220	3582	13640	1462	1308	5991	964	1192	2732	6530	7239	1752	2255	3656	17100	5330	12030	1282	3290	5885	2192	2972	5741	964	5011	7684	2068	2764	7220	10210	2424	18780	4183	2960	16210	4282	5582	6328	4598	6034	8195	4062	13200	5160	2382	3155	2403	4301	1153	14170	2649	3813	2221	12860	2837	2470	3765	2255	633	853	14590	14640	3581	2000	11230	2453	2667	28170	6640	5691	7028	1999	1818	2138	3723	7655	752	2317	3293	2582	1916	2021	2370	4252	2161	4184	7097	4860	5260	7893	2516	2934	8345	4829	3282	1716	11600	8682	12060	2365	1839	12490	2187	5743	8032	4872	11210	2562	2020	1246	4913	2354	1845	1310	5994	2370	6976	3770	2134	622	11930	9540	2420	1531	2017	15330	11140	10870	8413	9242	3879	3097	2312	2584	1798	2535	2534	620	5160	2637	1811	2194	5609	18420	6387	2143	3275	10960	2625	3107	10350	2128	1379	2360	3758	3798	2422	6141
2020-12-22	786	1686	4300	2156	4265	5575	4717	1470	8450	10350	11740	2228	8484	3086	4597	4256	4973	8572	48450	3832	10960	5945	3041	16620	3074	8420	2630	32470	3258	2159	9358	3338	5268	17370	2094	9601	2820	3719	3840	5761	11110	9267	2441	5515	3319	5688	3053	3187	6220	7230	4404	1918	3207	10880	10870	3174	1569	1629	4498	3333	1249	1500	4540	1226	22020	10710	1541	1902	12010	3303	4041	4209	1631	9423	1419	14020	3869	4670	12740	10930	996	2194	1950	3095	4337	2049	11470	4714	3182	1722	1946	1133	2934	11370	6646	2035	3376	3072	1827	1767	3748	1308	2723	8487	4145	3146	1470	4325	2077	8632	3089	5262	1903	5498	2498	7382	2533	4066	8818	1400	4693	2178	2856	12530	2857	3131	2701	9416	3027	2008	7895	2606	4414	2694	1112	5950	3815	2296	2898	12250	5224	21500	8354	8837	4829	39580	20700	1437	6696	3235	4402	25770	8413	6520	1143	1115	34360	3618	14240	1476	1326	6171	979	1219	2792	6568	7493	1775	2271	3692	17160	5381	12350	1299	3315	5916	2232	3007	5781	991	5065	7718	2080	2782	7287	10310	2471	18860	4215	2980	16290	4318	5629	6445	4622	6161	8244	4124	13520	5185	2397	3221	2419	4378	1159	14230	2777	3834	2338	12960	2880	2502	3782	2305	642	858	14660	14770	3624	2020	11270	2475	2734	28280	6676	5794	7088	2016	1857	2202	3751	7742	763	2336	3330	2604	1938	2072	2404	4278	2209	4217	7152	4910	5449	8149	2580	3001	8380	4886	3319	1750	11660	8726	12170	2380	1857	12540	2234	5916	8203	4925	11240	2575	2085	1266	4938	2399	1863	1322	6078	2432	7309	3891	2144	634	12430	9585	2482	1538	2050	15400	11210	11450	8668	9300	3911	3171	2359	2650	1811	2585	2576	630	5181	2683	1845	2250	5741	18480	6440	2168	3324	11020	2679	3136	10460	2139	1400	2391	3857	3823	2438	6176
2020-12-23	802	1696	4331	2199	4296	5866	4845	1496	8649	10540	11790	2238	8743	3112	4631	4282	5049	8742	48780	3860	11010	5972	3062	16670	3121	8501	2709	32560	3303	2186	9496	3480	5323	17460	2127	9907	2831	3770	3864	5809	11150	9314	2472	5639	3346	5874	3069	3319	6397	7265	4507	1933	3259	10970	10980	3189	1586	1655	4529	3399	1251	1511	4581	1241	22130	10790	1551	1926	12540	3387	4068	4296	1644	9487	1426	14090	3896	4824	12810	11140	1015	2215	1972	3140	4368	2065	11520	4759	3198	1741	1961	1140	2997	11650	7115	2073	3390	3089	1842	1789	3872	1329	2733	8515	4181	3193	1486	4404	2089	8989	3136	5293	1910	5627	2516	7536	2603	4085	8823	1424	4714	2256	2910	12830	2872	3220	2717	9595	3047	2025	7993	2637	4440	2728	1118	6107	3876	2312	2948	12310	5305	21570	8381	9063	4855	39710	20840	1465	6766	3258	4453	25850	8520	6643	1184	1122	34500	3658	14500	1489	1345	6357	994	1248	2843	6605	7756	1798	2287	3721	17220	5423	12590	1315	3330	5948	2273	3043	5821	1004	5106	7753	2091	2801	7354	10370	2519	18930	4248	3000	16340	4355	5668	6558	4646	6264	8291	4186	13860	5211	2412	3289	2435	4500	1166	14280	2911	3855	2393	13020	2923	2534	3799	2351	650	863	14710	14860	3650	2039	11310	2487	2803	28370	6712	5885	7142	2034	1897	2255	3780	7816	774	2356	3367	2625	1969	2116	2443	4304	2242	4238	7207	4959	5645	8260	2656	3062	8411	4917	3351	1786	11700	8769	12280	2395	1875	12600	2280	6081	8378	4983	11280	2593	2152	1278	4963	2445	1880	1335	6146	2496	7602	4016	2154	647	12430	9632	2545	1546	2066	15460	11290	11560	8862	9347	3943	3247	2406	2689	1824	2637	2641	640	5203	2729	1879	2293	5837	18560	6495	2192	3374	11050	2733	3193	10560	2149	1420	2421	3953	3849	2454	6202

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-17 to 2020-12-23

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-16	729	1627	4105	1858	4096	4100	3996	1319	7388	9664	11440	2170	7077	2926	4368	4109	4308	7596	46507	3660	10651	5773	2913	16253	2834	8133	2194	31568	2823	1998	8575	2594	4898	16895	1897	7921	2748	3025	3720	5361	10791	8990	2250	4807	3152	4692	2955	2508	5242	7016	3822	1831	2893	10286	10180	3056	1490	1476	4310	2948	1235	1436	4280	1134	21358	10220	1486	1834	9119	2752	3878	3714	1548	9033	1378	13496	3712	3832	12167	10096	883	2038	1823	2841	4149	1951	11073	4443	2778	1590	1881	1088	2579	9819	4257	1792	3261	2969	1734	1637	3082	1173	2662	8316	4053	2871	1369	3855	2007	6671	2764	5135	1858	4760	2376	6519	2139	3953	6987	1277	4508	1773	2453	10756	2765	2636	2623	8383	2902	1902	7280	2405	4268	2472	1071	5073	3356	2194	2598	11736	4761	21060	8234	7722	4666	38567	19965	1283	6299	3096	4101	25379	7748	5319	913	1073	33631	3463	11487	1395	1214	5143	885	1060	2438	6338	6061	1639	2171	3509	16780	5140	11095	1196	3210	5726	1996	2796	5540	865	4841	7506	2010	2671	6875	9862	2253	18405	4017	2858	15890	4082	5428	5911	4474	5573	8005	3732	11684	5028	2303	2836	2324	3925	1119	13853	2073	3705	1651	12481	2625	2302	3674	2021	591	828	14359	14173	3440	1900	11103	2388	2352	27597	6460	5259	6817	1910	1629	1872	3578	7387	694	2217	3106	2473	1883	1865	2177	4117	2038	4043	6819	4597	4396	6918	2412	2667	8205	4650	3148	1547	11400	8460	11495	2286	1747	12160	1897	4929	7214	4698	11062	2475	1726	1169	4786	2122	1744	1247	5781	2071	5732	3219	2083	561	10026	9386	2136	1494	1908	15007	10855	8594	7478	9048	3714	2745	2082	2413	1729	2289	2302	572	5049	2416	1707	1992	5199	18032	6111	2012	3013	10659	2352	3001	9899	2078	1277	2210	3417	3716	2343	6056
2020-12-17	743	1641	4140	1906	4130	4258	4106	1347	7619	9860	11490	2178	7362	2961	4407	4138	4406	7824	46880	3689	10700	5802	2938	16310	2878	8208	2258	31690	2930	2027	8748	2701	4970	16990	1936	8181	2791	3128	3743	5422	10840	9024	2285	4916	3190	4816	2980	2623	5393	7057	3936	1849	2959	10390	10290	3078	1506	1501	4339	3017	1238	1450	4327	1149	21480	10310	1495	1861	9420	2825	3904	3808	1564	9116	1387	13580	3751	3942	12260	10290	903	2069	1856	2896	4179	1967	11150	4496	2827	1624	1898	1111	2634	10110	4459	1836	3289	2989	1765	1668	3180	1194	2672	8346	4094	2917	1389	3950	2033	6889	2818	5160	1867	4873	2396	6709	2220	3968	7164	1301	4540	1868	2523	11120	2785	2707	2640	8581	2928	1922	7428	2444	4297	2513	1080	5221	3430	2214	2644	11810	4875	21150	8261	7927	4712	38710	20110	1314	6487	3124	4155	25470	7887	5497	951	1082	33760	3499	11860	1409	1234	5312	903	1086	2493	6384	6270	1669	2193	3541	16840	5180	11400	1221	3229	5751	2035	2827	5582	881	4887	7543	2022	2691	6957	9940	2293	18500	4057	2879	15950	4129	5469	6018	4509	5686	8059	3817	12010	5053	2324	2915	2342	4005	1126	13910	2201	3728	1736	12580	2677	2347	3702	2074	599	833	14420	14270	3470	1926	11140	2402	2426	27700	6502	5365	6867	1943	1662	1926	3612	7462	704	2239	3147	2498	1914	1902	2215	4145	2072	4065	6882	4660	4608	7137	2467	2728	8239	4683	3183	1583	11450	8508	11610	2311	1772	12220	1952	5097	7399	4750	11090	2489	1779	1187	4824	2176	1767	1262	5891	2135	6018	3333	2094	572	10310	9432	2201	1521	1936	15070	10930	8860	7700	9105	3754	2803	2122	2474	1755	2337	2365	586	5077	2457	1740	2035	5316	18100	6179	2040	3070	10720	2410	3059	10010	2089	1298	2231	3486	3741	2361	6080
2020-12-18	755	1650	4170	1947	4162	4421	4210	1367	7879	10040	11540	2187	7644	2987	4445	4163	4487	8018	47210	3718	10750	5832	2967	16360	2914	8261	2321	31810	3037	2052	8910	2797	5029	17060	1968	8416	2803	3232	3765	5466	10880	9063	2309	5003	3219	4963	2999	2705	5528	7092	4056	1862	3007	10460	10360	3098	1520	1529	4377	3062	1240	1460	4361	1161	21590	10390	1504	1896	9650	2878	3927	3895	1578	9181	1392	13660	3779	4062	12350	10470	919	2091	1880	2944	4207	1986	11200	4543	2870	1644	1909	1125	2679	10420	4644	1880	3302	3005	1786	1698	3277	1216	2682	8367	4124	2957	1406	4049	2062	7061	2858	5181	1874	4965	2412	6903	2279	3987	7340	1323	4568	1993	2571	11440	2801	2768	2654	8762	2951	1939	7557	2476	4318	2555	1086	5354	3490	2230	2681	11870	4981	21230	8281	8115	4737	38850	20230	1341	6667	3146	4214	25540	7992	5688	989	1090	33880	3528	12260	1423	1250	5449	915	1105	2539	6423	6443	1694	2212	3572	16890	5211	11690	1239	3246	5775	2066	2862	5619	895	4923	7574	2033	2708	7030	10010	2323	18570	4087	2898	16010	4174	5511	6117	4532	5770	8105	3888	12350	5078	2339	2975	2359	4090	1133	13970	2322	3748	1826	12660	2713	2383	3720	2116	606	838	14470	14370	3500	1946	11170	2417	2497	27810	6538	5466	6925	1966	1690	1976	3644	7516	709	2260	3184	2520	1936	1929	2247	4170	2099	4090	6939	4704	4776	7296	2510	2778	8264	4722	3215	1609	11490	8552	11730	2328	1787	12270	2003	5243	7578	4790	11120	2500	1823	1200	4855	2213	1781	1276	5989	2178	6321	3450	2100	581	10570	9468	2270	1548	1958	15130	11000	9130	7877	9147	3787	2860	2152	2513	1776	2373	2421	599	5097	2498	1757	2068	5415	18170	6234	2056	3115	10770	2455	3123	10120	2101	1312	2253	3555	3759	2377	6100
2020-12-19	766	1660	4196	1983	4184	4591	4295	1387	8084	10180	11590	2195	7911	3012	4482	4184	4559	8183	47500	3746	10780	5861	2987	16400	2940	8308	2377	31900	3131	2074	9067	2896	5066	17130	1998	8641	2815	3328	3783	5506	10920	9100	2331	5089	3242	5111	3012	2785	5654	7126	4165	1874	3047	10510	10440	3115	1532	1557	4402	3108	1241	1470	4393	1174	21680	10470	1513	1920	9890	2921	3949	3979	1590	9243	1399	13710	3802	4186	12420	10620	935	2109	1894	2988	4234	1998	11260	4590	2907	1671	1920	1136	2726	10730	4829	1908	3319	3021	1806	1714	3375	1232	2688	8388	4152	2997	1422	4139	2082	7229	2896	5200	1880	5049	2427	7075	2337	4003	7465	1345	4595	2124	2613	11790	2815	2829	2664	8925	2971	1954	7681	2509	4340	2589	1090	5490	3545	2247	2717	11930	5089	21300	8298	8308	4757	38950	20330	1362	6814	3168	4273	25590	8096	5837	1025	1099	33970	3552	12610	1437	1267	5586	925	1124	2583	6458	6611	1716	2230	3597	16940	5240	11930	1257	3261	5799	2098	2898	5655	905	4951	7603	2044	2724	7102	10070	2353	18640	4115	2918	16050	4215	5536	6199	4555	5849	8144	3957	12700	5103	2353	3034	2376	4159	1139	14020	2447	3769	1900	12730	2749	2417	3738	2157	614	843	14510	14440	3522	1963	11190	2429	2563	27920	6570	5556	6962	1989	1717	2016	3672	7572	714	2280	3220	2540	1949	1954	2271	4194	2127	4120	6996	4746	4943	7430	2548	2825	8286	4755	3239	1634	11520	8593	11800	2344	1803	12320	2057	5367	7748	4829	11140	2512	1864	1212	4880	2250	1794	1288	6079	2222	6636	3564	2106	588	10780	9498	2336	1570	1978	15180	11070	9380	8036	9189	3818	2917	2179	2553	1795	2410	2465	607	5125	2539	1773	2089	5496	18210	6284	2071	3159	10800	2495	3168	10200	2110	1327	2274	3620	3777	2392	6119
2020-12-20	777	1669	4227	2021	4214	4767	4388	1407	8297	10340	11640	2202	8201	3039	4519	4204	4632	8348	47800	3775	10820	5886	3004	16450	2966	8351	2442	32010	3224	2098	9219	3000	5115	17190	2029	8885	2829	3429	3803	5543	10970	9139	2353	5171	3267	5263	3027	2865	5782	7158	4278	1889	3088	10570	10510	3133	1545	1585	4428	3153	1243	1480	4422	1186	21780	10550	1522	1944	10140	2971	3972	4061	1603	9307	1405	13770	3828	4310	12480	10760	950	2133	1906	3038	4263	2016	11310	4636	2953	1696	1931	1147	2773	11050	5023	1939	3333	3038	1828	1726	3475	1253	2698	8410	4181	3037	1438	4231	2101	7401	2932	5217	1888	5132	2443	7251	2397	4020	7616	1366	4623	2265	2657	12220	2826	2889	2676	9094	2992	1970	7804	2540	4362	2618	1093	5622	3599	2263	2753	11980	5198	21370	8316	8483	4773	39060	20430	1382	6965	3188	4333	25650	8194	6026	1063	1105	34080	3575	12930	1451	1283	5728	937	1143	2625	6494	6781	1741	2248	3613	16990	5270	12210	1274	3278	5824	2129	2934	5693	919	4977	7636	2055	2740	7174	10130	2381	18710	4143	2938	16110	4260	5560	6268	4577	5921	8178	4029	13050	5128	2367	3093	2393	4229	1146	14070	2577	3789	1972	12790	2782	2449	3754	2191	620	847	14560	14510	3549	1979	11210	2443	2631	28010	6607	5646	7007	2012	1744	2054	3703	7629	720	2300	3255	2561	1957	1980	2295	4216	2156	4144	7053	4787	5133	7580	2591	2869	8304	4788	3258	1658	11550	8633	11880	2360	1817	12380	2100	5504	7912	4871	11160	2523	1909	1225	4904	2286	1807	1300	6175	2266	6888	3681	2112	596	11000	9530	2400	1597	1993	15220	11140	9640	8218	9233	3850	2973	2207	2603	1811	2446	2519	615	5137	2581	1789	2114	5589	18280	6336	2086	3205	10830	2537	3217	10260	2118	1341	2290	3685	3794	2408	6139
2020-12-21	788	1678	4265	2065	4245	4950	4495	1428	8532	10530	11680	2212	8525	3064	4560	4234	4717	8525	48160	3803	10890	5915	3028	16520	3019	8406	2510	32140	3331	2123	9374	3107	5156	17290	2061	9141	2849	3560	3825	5587	11040	9192	2376	5268	3299	5418	3045	2958	5916	7190	4415	1903	3131	10650	10580	3154	1559	1613	4463	3198	1245	1490	4454	1199	21900	10640	1531	1973	10370	3029	4004	4149	1616	9375	1411	13890	3860	4448	12570	10920	966	2171	1928	3102	4291	2035	11380	4678	2991	1723	1942	1159	2821	11380	5230	1967	3356	3054	1850	1753	3578	1277	2708	8437	4215	3079	1455	4333	2128	7579	2976	5240	1895	5234	2459	7433	2457	4041	7799	1389	4652	2414	2717	12600	2841	2958	2691	9282	3014	1990	7937	2569	4390	2658	1099	5752	3666	2279	2792	12050	5309	21460	8340	8669	4790	39220	20590	1411	7147	3216	4393	25730	8303	6243	1104	1112	34220	3603	13390	1466	1299	5868	949	1163	2674	6535	6957	1761	2266	3655	17040	5307	12540	1292	3300	5852	2161	2970	5734	933	5020	7668	2066	2759	7247	10210	2415	18790	4172	2957	16160	4305	5600	6362	4603	6003	8219	4098	13430	5153	2382	3152	2410	4309	1153	14140	2716	3810	2077	12890	2823	2485	3769	2241	627	852	14610	14600	3585	1999	11250	2458	2708	28130	6647	5727	7057	2038	1772	2097	3736	7696	725	2320	3301	2582	1987	2005	2328	4242	2189	4170	7111	4833	5306	7721	2633	2922	8337	4831	3294	1686	11610	8677	12020	2376	1835	12440	2150	5646	8102	4909	11200	2537	1953	1235	4938	2325	1820	1315	6281	2317	7236	3813	2119	606	11270	9567	2466	1621	2021	15300	11210	9970	8438	9283	3885	3034	2236	2651	1831	2483	2592	624	5157	2624	1806	2145	5681	18350	6390	2102	3251	10880	2588	3290	10360	2129	1355	2309	3752	3814	2424	6157
2020-12-22	800	1688	4302	2099	4270	5144	4603	1448	8787	10700	11730	2221	8868	3090	4601	4261	4802	8670	48490	3832	10940	5944	3049	16570	3064	8450	2575	32260	3450	2145	9544	3217	5202	17370	2091	9379	2867	3667	3845	5634	11090	9245	2397	5350	3327	5578	3062	3060	6061	7224	4550	1919	3181	10720	10650	3176	1573	1641	4501	3244	1247	1500	4488	1212	22010	10730	1540	2007	10610	3078	4032	4243	1630	9441	1417	13980	3887	4578	12640	11060	983	2196	1941	3149	4317	2053	11440	4727	3029	1751	1954	1172	2865	11730	5474	2000	3375	3071	1870	1773	3685	1300	2717	8462	4243	3124	1472	4438	2154	7736	3010	5261	1901	5337	2475	7608	2523	4061	7977	1413	4683	2575	2770	12820	2855	3022	2705	9464	3037	2011	8067	2599	4413	2690	1106	5896	3724	2296	2826	12120	5423	21550	8359	8842	4815	39380	20710	1434	7305	3239	4456	25790	8410	6432	1150	1118	34360	3627	13810	1480	1316	6021	959	1182	2714	6576	7137	1784	2285	3685	17090	5346	12820	1310	3316	5876	2193	3006	5772	947	5065	7703	2077	2775	7321	10290	2448	18860	4198	2977	16220	4347	5635	6450	4627	6078	8262	4173	13810	5178	2396	3217	2427	4371	1160	14210	2862	3830	2178	12970	2859	2527	3786	2283	635	857	14660	14700	3613	2016	11280	2474	2784	28250	6680	5823	7107	2059	1802	2136	3766	7760	730	2341	3340	2603	2008	2038	2350	4271	2225	4190	7169	4874	5489	7835	2681	2970	8371	4881	3327	1712	11660	8720	12130	2393	1852	12500	2193	5795	8281	4952	11240	2548	1998	1246	4963	2364	1833	1327	6371	2360	7508	3943	2124	614	11550	9597	2539	1642	2042	15370	11280	10270	8589	9324	3917	3089	2261	2695	1848	2521	2632	634	5178	2667	1823	2176	5767	18420	6443	2119	3296	10910	2637	3338	10450	2141	1370	2326	3826	3833	2440	6179
2020-12-23	812	1697	4330	2136	4295	5344	4716	1469	9043	10870	11780	2228	9229	3115	4640	4285	4885	8828	48810	3862	11000	5973	3071	16630	3106	8488	2639	32380	3546	2170	9711	3336	5251	17440	2124	9638	2882	3758	3865	5671	11150	9294	2421	5436	3353	5741	3076	3167	6203	7259	4691	1933	3227	10790	10710	3193	1586	1670	4527	3290	1249	1511	4519	1225	22110	10800	1549	2041	10860	3128	4056	4336	1642	9502	1423	14050	3906	4719	12720	11210	999	2217	1954	3198	4349	2066	11490	4777	3065	1777	1966	1183	2914	12090	5691	2027	3392	3087	1892	1791	3794	1321	2728	8484	4276	3168	1489	4530	2181	7920	3043	5279	1907	5424	2491	7810	2590	4083	8072	1435	4710	2746	2819	13130	2868	3092	2724	9642	3058	2030	8205	2628	4432	2730	1110	6042	3773	2313	2864	12180	5539	21640	8379	9032	4838	39530	20830	1454	7471	3260	4518	25850	8510	6633	1191	1123	34500	3658	14110	1495	1333	6169	971	1202	2760	6615	7323	1808	2303	3714	17140	5378	13110	1329	3333	5903	2225	3043	5811	957	5097	7733	2088	2793	7395	10360	2481	18930	4229	2997	16260	4385	5667	6523	4649	6153	8301	4247	14200	5203	2410	3269	2445	4480	1166	14270	3016	3851	2247	13050	2895	2559	3802	2327	641	861	14710	14780	3642	2039	11310	2486	2859	28350	6718	5915	7154	2083	1831	2182	3803	7821	736	2362	3380	2624	2040	2068	2378	4295	2257	4208	7227	4912	5663	7924	2726	3019	8405	4923	3357	1736	11700	8760	12230	2407	1880	12550	2240	5940	8473	4990	11260	2562	2035	1257	4996	2403	1845	1339	6461	2404	7853	4071	2129	626	11730	9629	2612	1664	2061	15440	11350	10480	8759	9364	3949	3150	2288	2720	1866	2560	2668	643	5205	2711	1840	2201	5859	18490	6492	2133	3343	10930	2686	3395	10530	2151	1385	2343	3899	3854	2454	6199

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-16