COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-19

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	10-21	10-27	12-06	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	--	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-04	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-14	10-31	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	12-02	--	10-04	09-27	10-25	11-03	11-01	--	10-24	--	11-09	--	--	10-13	12-08	11-02	--	10-28	11-02	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	10-30	11-01	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	11-03	--	11-02	10-25	11-02	10-14	10-31	--	11-02	--	--	11-01	--	--	11-09	10-29	11-01	11-02	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	11-30	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	09-27	10-25	--	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	12-08	--	11-02	--	11-02	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-08	11-29	09-29	--	--	--	10-26	09-22	10-26	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-04	--	--	10-14	10-25	--	10-29	11-08	--	11-04	11-03	11-05	11-04	--	11-03	--	09-30	11-02	11-02	10-25	--	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-13	12-06	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	--	11-01	10-18	12-08	10-12	--	10-17	--	--	10-09	--	11-01	11-03	10-20	11-02	11-01	--	09-30	11-08	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	12-08	--	--	10-26	10-31	11-04	11-01	--	11-09	--	--	--	10-13	--	10-25	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	11-01	10-31	--	10-18	10-12	11-01	--	10-29	11-02	--	--	12-07	11-01	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	11-08	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-29	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-07	10-05	--	12-08	--	--	10-21	11-09	--	--	10-04	--	--	11-03	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment		29	82	60	62						191	28			77	72			625	63	163	99	55	235	48	135		441		50				321			64		57	70	159	141	49		52		41			131	197	27		128	145	53			62		23	20	69		293	144	20				53		29	165	29	249	57		252			38			110	31	225	77			32						55	75				48	41	129	71		24					71	32		44			65			75				48		43		52				59			290		29		285		360	152		85	542	254			62	99	529				14	610	61		29						91			36	55	392	85			51	159		49	110		91	121	35	58		131		609	67	40	257		64		82		101	112		94	43		41		19	197	163	64		199			67		8	17	242	231	85		184	37		435	113		95	42			66	141	12	27		83				70		76	89						117	82	57		183	125	193		33	160			227	66	177	46			90			21					47			138				261	162			135	58							20	91		37			320	93			137			138	37				65	41	130
Days since peak		59	53	13	59						67	76			54	56			45	47	62	69	53	68	35	49		51		65				52			17		76	83	55	46	48		56		40			67	11	47		52	47	61			69		50	48	47		77	47	48				46		47	55	47	66	49		47			48			40	51	48	47			60						69	83				19	69	50	69		46					83	55		46			54			46				47		52		47				69			11		47		47		53	81		73	83	47			41	20	81				54	88	54		46						47			47	83	84	45			66	55		51	41		45	46	44	45		46		80	47	47	55		69		46		67	13		46	54		67		48	62	11	68		63			71		48	46	60	47	48		80	41		81	48		47	11			54	49	45	48		40				67		55	46						74	48	49		62	68	48		51	47			12	48	62	51			46			41					55			67				51	47			60	62							12	75		11			59	40			76			46	48				69	46	74
Last total	831	1687	4259	2021	4242	4589	4382	1421	8422	10787	11634	2188	7911	3076	4500	4211	4677	8796	47731	3748	10819	5869	3005	16452	2933	8410	2448	31987	3294	2090	9403	3016	5202	17211	2009	9083	2835	3416	3805	5519	10957	9120	2346	5353	3257	5146	3057	2957	5776	7159	4428	1911	3160	10616	10469	3156	1593	1592	4408	3241	1246	1496	4450	1212	21880	10578	1520	1998	10254	2975	3947	4198	1616	9275	1416	13722	3858	4233	12551	10882	926	2119	1948	3088	4253	2032	11245	4579	2920	1748	1957	1177	2844	11081	5032	1963	3342	3059	1840	1717	3518	1249	2723	8449	4200	2999	1432	4299	2099	7525	2949	5237	1910	5212	2478	7440	2435	4007	7677	1377	4679	2245	2661	12302	2903	2979	2667	9175	3013	1999	8005	2516	4341	2618	1152	5797	3653	2283	2760	11970	5203	21355	8321	8712	4781	39078	20387	1425	7120	3198	4260	25774	8191	5933	1088	1107	34087	3562	12876	1431	1290	5709	931	1134	2635	6469	6904	1758	2252	3630	16941	5264	12415	1254	3300	5786	2147	2883	5680	955	5010	7625	2063	2754	7164	10125	2436	18757	4122	2934	16077	4309	5583	6223	4586	5912	8157	4019	13308	5092	2392	3075	2402	4342	1148	14042	2471	3764	1950	12722	2794	2452	3778	2229	605	860	14581	14596	3540	2011	11266	2441	2651	27966	6585	5585	6977	2028	1781	2006	3691	7590	720	2303	3246	2558	2015	1986	2302	4201	2152	4141	6991	4876	5294	7841	2626	2965	8346	4799	3252	1693	11585	8697	11801	2366	1820	12377	2062	5433	7763	4865	11201	2543	1929	1229	4916	2289	1828	1317	6169	2322	6710	3619	2130	588	11376	9580	2412	1671	2016	15231	11150	9821	8537	9314	3835	2983	2237	2728	1842	2474	2496	591	5125	2518	1800	2133	5696	18228	6357	2109	3246	10875	2591	3254	10260	2152	1362	2300	3719	3775	2425	6196
Last daily increment	15	15	46	24	24	53	105	8	153	225	46	5	166	35	41	25	112	243	197	20	31	21	19	51	19	51	51	87	59	21	112	106	55	74	27	233	11	84	21	37	51	33	16	76	10	50	35	95	126	51	107	12	56	81	82	25	25	27	33	47	1	21	43	17	142	75	10	18	215	57	12	93	14	68	4	50	37	53	80	122	7	10	29	52	21	20	26	31	28	38	17	22	60	203	125	26	25	18	29	6	57	19	17	47	33	16	19	72	17	151	32	36	12	89	23	167	46	16	134	16	30	84	49	296	29	95	5	104	42	13	119	24	17	15	21	136	57	21	40	35	72	87	29	142	25	120	122	27	139	21	25	90	101	81	33	8	101	37	223	4	12	78	3	13	28	36	197	16	18	19	34	34	206	12	14	18	31	20	34	26	39	30	8	14	66	63	31	74	21	26	54	46	38	62	19	92	32	29	310	12	17	36	18	58	4	55	77	14	69	62	19	22	18	41	4	3	57	96	22	32	55	5	69	68	29	62	29	37	32	17	26	51	8	11	29	23	39	28	32	17	21	31	49	85	183	161	34	77	46	34	24	31	58	49	61	15	12	51	33	78	64	32	33	10	44	21	31	19	33	14	75	57	203	60	5	1	207	49	49	24	23	58	77	301	171	41	30	68	34	53	21	46	31	6	21	21	26	18	84	42	45	33	46	69	42	45	80	17	20	24	57	21	8	39
Last week	164	113	309	321	261	1012	748	201	1809	1888	384	45	1781	256	276	202	681	1962	2581	186	363	186	166	387	265	553	449	766	847	193	1403	786	582	658	247	1980	164	694	171	362	341	274	220	927	214	856	199	859	995	293	1051	142	479	649	653	182	168	200	214	538	20	109	371	126	958	720	69	258	2065	434	174	834	130	522	70	545	281	757	685	1430	106	183	233	452	200	131	421	322	319	287	136	161	436	2243	1360	316	144	158	218	171	783	155	86	255	315	274	136	763	187	1526	368	216	85	820	167	1554	601	124	1248	188	273	757	434	2705	209	582	90	1457	207	165	1232	235	203	279	126	1232	560	158	319	523	841	594	196	1680	235	1018	935	272	1488	200	319	721	934	1088	309	66	921	249	2532	81	151	1076	106	169	382	294	1536	217	167	243	366	277	2426	151	169	150	285	182	310	156	354	241	93	163	562	547	328	682	242	146	411	379	304	684	239	696	315	593	2791	144	178	485	142	735	48	391	823	142	564	544	351	296	194	360	34	46	422	809	255	210	318	114	548	723	257	670	347	251	290	305	213	478	63	175	270	173	247	248	236	185	231	190	384	492	1551	1597	417	522	247	284	230	273	361	343	728	162	160	408	314	997	1164	348	267	121	384	118	263	360	165	125	789	436	1933	770	88	66	2276	361	483	281	220	470	599	2080	1765	470	284	426	283	515	202	349	410	76	149	238	195	314	884	420	463	207	416	400	433	483	714	127	155	160	571	144	137	233
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																	59																																75	75																																						74																																																																														27
Low between peaks																												27																										2											1																																																																																	7	14																																																																																																																				2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-20 to 2020-12-26

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-19	831	1687	4259	2021	4242	4589	4382	1421	8422	10787	11634	2188	7911	3076	4500	4211	4677	8796	47731	3748	10819	5869	3005	16452	2933	8410	2448	31987	3294	2090	9403	3016	5202	17211	2009	9083	2835	3416	3805	5519	10957	9120	2346	5353	3257	5146	3057	2957	5776	7159	4428	1911	3160	10616	10469	3156	1593	1592	4408	3241	1246	1496	4450	1212	21880	10578	1520	1998	10254	2975	3947	4198	1616	9275	1416	13722	3858	4233	12551	10882	926	2119	1948	3088	4253	2032	11245	4579	2920	1748	1957	1177	2844	11081	5032	1963	3342	3059	1840	1717	3518	1249	2723	8449	4200	2999	1432	4299	2099	7525	2949	5237	1910	5212	2478	7440	2435	4007	7677	1377	4679	2245	2661	12302	2903	2979	2667	9175	3013	1999	8005	2516	4341	2618	1152	5797	3653	2283	2760	11970	5203	21355	8321	8712	4781	39078	20387	1425	7120	3198	4260	25774	8191	5933	1088	1107	34087	3562	12876	1431	1290	5709	931	1134	2635	6469	6904	1758	2252	3630	16941	5264	12415	1254	3300	5786	2147	2883	5680	955	5010	7625	2063	2754	7164	10125	2436	18757	4122	2934	16077	4309	5583	6223	4586	5912	8157	4019	13308	5092	2392	3075	2402	4342	1148	14042	2471	3764	1950	12722	2794	2452	3778	2229	605	860	14581	14596	3540	2011	11266	2441	2651	27966	6585	5585	6977	2028	1781	2006	3691	7590	720	2303	3246	2558	2015	1986	2302	4201	2152	4141	6991	4876	5294	7841	2626	2965	8346	4799	3252	1693	11585	8697	11801	2366	1820	12377	2062	5433	7763	4865	11201	2543	1929	1229	4916	2289	1828	1317	6169	2322	6710	3619	2130	588	11376	9580	2412	1671	2016	15231	11150	9821	8537	9314	3835	2983	2237	2728	1842	2474	2496	591	5125	2518	1800	2133	5696	18228	6357	2109	3246	10875	2591	3254	10260	2152	1362	2300	3719	3775	2425	6196
2020-12-20	844	1699	4259	2066	4242	4643	4426	1459	8670	10790	11650	2197	8043	3100	4540	4216	4798	9150	47740	3777	10850	5893	3029	16510	2958	8475	2521	32140	3294	2127	9510	3151	5202	17230	2046	9290	2852	3595	3807	5570	11000	9164	2376	5353	3270	5297	3088	2957	5854	7199	4581	1928	3197	10620	10560	3156	1630	1612	4427	3267	1248	1496	4503	1232	22010	10580	1530	2056	10500	3022	3973	4328	1624	9345	1425	13800	3898	4390	12620	10880	938	2130	1970	3157	4289	2050	11310	4625	2953	1801	1977	1208	2907	11340	5232	1963	3350	3079	1875	1720	3579	1258	2735	8449	4253	3043	1450	4455	2108	7747	2968	5237	1920	5264	2478	7700	2500	4025	7677	1387	4680	2378	2661	12300	2933	3065	2678	9310	3060	2011	8005	2551	4341	2687	1174	5945	3653	2303	2812	12010	5281	21510	8321	8794	4781	39190	20450	1439	7332	3198	4305	25850	8206	6211	1107	1115	34160	3592	13220	1445	1305	5853	961	1143	2656	6509	7084	1793	2262	3634	17000	5278	12660	1287	3300	5794	2174	2916	5697	955	5010	7661	2076	2775	7248	10160	2473	18800	4153	2956	16110	4332	5583	6402	4586	6023	8171	4070	13480	5117	2411	3157	2421	4342	1156	14110	2644	3785	1985	12770	2858	2463	3795	2259	611	866	14590	14610	3571	2018	11270	2446	2651	28080	6609	5764	7002	2067	1826	2049	3705	7606	726	2325	3286	2584	2040	2025	2302	4228	2189	4154	7049	4952	5534	8330	2690	3052	8347	4819	3254	1734	11630	8749	11890	2412	1840	12420	2110	5433	7804	4887	11210	2549	1983	1229	4916	2318	1860	1317	6299	2392	7075	3867	2139	596	11380	9611	2437	1715	2016	15310	11170	9980	8540	9379	3886	3057	2271	2728	1853	2516	2514	598	5149	2554	1829	2178	5805	18340	6417	2150	3282	10930	2667	3313	10300	2152	1374	2314	3786	3782	2444	6223
2020-12-21	857	1711	4312	2111	4286	4698	4547	1498	8910	10990	11720	2206	8182	3138	4580	4250	4917	9500	48080	3806	10930	5924	3052	16580	3027	8562	2596	32280	3410	2158	9620	3291	5233	17340	2084	9610	2884	3761	3835	5620	11090	9208	2407	5414	3313	5449	3118	3031	5930	7237	4736	1945	3259	10670	10650	3185	1662	1630	4467	3291	1251	1511	4556	1252	22130	10710	1539	2119	10750	3069	3998	4460	1631	9413	1433	13920	3950	4545	12740	10990	949	2181	2009	3226	4324	2068	11370	4672	2987	1867	1996	1242	2970	11600	5436	1980	3380	3099	1909	1749	3640	1267	2746	8484	4318	3087	1468	4610	2117	7978	2986	5270	1929	5416	2501	7999	2567	4053	7725	1397	4724	2514	2684	12510	2961	3150	2697	9450	3103	2022	8089	2591	4391	2743	1193	6095	3702	2322	2863	12100	5358	21650	8358	8878	4812	39380	20630	1454	7554	3236	4351	25970	8346	6456	1126	1123	34330	3621	13780	1459	1319	6001	982	1152	2677	6549	7261	1828	2273	3684	17050	5327	12910	1319	3333	5802	2201	2949	5763	970	5072	7696	2088	2795	7332	10260	2510	18840	4184	2977	16180	4354	5628	6585	4627	6152	8219	4125	13650	5142	2429	3235	2439	4388	1163	14180	2808	3806	2087	12890	2920	2472	3825	2336	617	872	14650	14730	3601	2048	11320	2467	2712	28210	6661	5885	7061	2105	1870	2092	3721	7690	732	2347	3326	2608	2081	2060	2320	4254	2226	4187	7106	5027	5775	8830	2753	3138	8382	4875	3303	1773	11680	8799	12050	2448	1860	12490	2158	5526	7987	4910	11250	2570	2064	1233	4965	2348	1890	1342	6426	2463	7397	4116	2148	603	11590	9671	2505	1760	2048	15410	11280	10350	8870	9465	3934	3129	2306	2782	1864	2558	2532	605	5172	2590	1858	2224	5955	18430	6476	2192	3317	11010	2753	3420	10430	2160	1387	2328	3855	3807	2462	6249
2020-12-22	871	1723	4374	2157	4321	4754	4667	1538	9160	11180	11790	2216	8329	3180	4619	4281	5038	9860	48400	3834	10990	5956	3076	16630	3073	8640	2670	32380	3499	2189	9750	3436	5253	17440	2122	9970	2912	3907	3861	5680	11150	9251	2437	5469	3348	5597	3146	3094	6006	7275	4894	1961	3320	10720	10750	3218	1694	1648	4513	3317	1253	1528	4609	1272	22250	10840	1549	2204	11000	3118	4024	4599	1639	9481	1441	14030	3994	4702	12880	11170	961	2212	2050	3295	4359	2086	11430	4717	3022	1942	2016	1284	3033	11870	5643	2015	3399	3119	1942	1779	3701	1277	2757	8536	4362	3132	1485	4767	2127	8223	3005	5301	1938	5545	2526	8301	2638	4073	7828	1407	4773	2652	2724	12650	2989	3238	2712	9600	3146	2033	8163	2635	4421	2792	1213	6246	3727	2341	2915	12190	5439	21780	8384	8962	4855	39540	20780	1470	7783	3265	4396	26080	8475	6690	1145	1131	34490	3649	14360	1472	1335	6153	1002	1161	2698	6588	7441	1868	2284	3723	17100	5376	13170	1350	3361	5810	2230	2982	5809	982	5132	7731	2101	2815	7416	10360	2552	18890	4216	2998	16250	4377	5679	6773	4664	6309	8272	4180	13820	5166	2447	3321	2457	4415	1170	14250	2957	3827	2170	12990	2982	2481	3859	2407	623	878	14730	14870	3631	2080	11370	2490	2777	28340	6704	6034	7124	2143	1915	2136	3736	7780	737	2369	3365	2633	2125	2115	2335	4280	2265	4220	7162	5102	6018	9330	2816	3226	8421	4935	3342	1811	11730	8849	12200	2470	1880	12550	2206	5614	8195	4934	11290	2586	2152	1243	5004	2377	1921	1357	6555	2534	7712	4337	2157	611	11790	9724	2558	1804	2073	15490	11370	10690	9230	9533	3984	3204	2343	2853	1875	2601	2552	612	5195	2625	1886	2269	6139	18490	6535	2235	3354	11060	2836	3502	10550	2169	1400	2342	3927	3833	2479	6275
2020-12-23	884	1734	4417	2203	4356	4808	4789	1578	9420	11410	11840	2225	8481	3221	4658	4310	5159	10220	48680	3862	11030	5988	3098	16690	3121	8719	2746	32490	3525	2219	9870	3587	5299	17550	2160	10350	2940	4081	3885	5740	11190	9295	2468	5516	3384	5749	3174	3198	6081	7313	5056	1977	3374	10770	10840	3238	1725	1665	4538	3340	1256	1543	4662	1292	22360	10930	1558	2280	11260	3167	4050	4740	1646	9547	1449	14100	4029	4859	12980	11310	972	2238	2089	3363	4394	2103	11490	4763	3057	1998	2035	1309	3096	12140	5856	2031	3418	3137	1975	1797	3761	1286	2768	8575	4401	3176	1502	4926	2137	8473	3023	5334	1946	5702	2544	8650	2710	4092	7828	1417	4808	2794	2754	12820	3016	3326	2730	9750	3186	2043	8305	2672	4448	2843	1233	6398	3763	2359	2967	12260	5518	21890	8411	9047	4893	39710	20930	1485	8020	3292	4441	26170	8581	6916	1165	1138	34640	3676	14910	1486	1349	6309	1025	1169	2718	6627	7620	1912	2294	3756	17160	5417	13430	1381	3382	5817	2259	3015	5852	989	5176	7766	2113	2835	7500	10440	2592	18930	4247	3018	16310	4398	5722	6957	4703	6453	8325	4236	14000	5190	2465	3407	2474	4492	1178	14300	3126	3848	2218	13070	3041	2490	3888	2485	629	884	14780	14990	3660	2109	11410	2505	2820	28460	6738	6165	7185	2181	1959	2180	3751	7861	743	2390	3403	2657	2165	2168	2360	4306	2304	4243	7218	5175	6263	9870	2880	3314	8458	4978	3377	1848	11770	8898	12310	2498	1899	12620	2255	5717	8370	4958	11330	2605	2217	1247	5043	2407	1952	1373	6681	2605	8005	4548	2165	618	12060	9774	2625	1848	2094	15550	11460	11010	9590	9590	4033	3279	2379	2908	1886	2644	2572	619	5218	2660	1915	2315	6282	18560	6593	2279	3389	11110	2914	3596	10660	2176	1413	2356	3998	3859	2497	6299
2020-12-24	897	1745	4450	2249	4403	4862	4913	1619	9700	11610	11890	2234	8638	3273	4697	4339	5282	10580	48930	3890	11090	6015	3121	16740	3153	8781	2823	32620	3642	2250	10000	3744	5352	17640	2198	10740	2963	4238	3907	5797	11230	9338	2500	5597	3423	5902	3202	3278	6156	7350	5221	1993	3434	10830	10930	3262	1756	1682	4564	3364	1258	1559	4716	1312	22480	11040	1567	2374	11520	3216	4075	4885	1653	9614	1457	14180	4064	5018	13100	11450	984	2263	2120	3432	4428	2121	11550	4809	3093	2072	2054	1340	3160	12420	6074	2068	3442	3156	2009	1823	3823	1296	2780	8595	4454	3221	1519	5089	2147	8732	3041	5360	1955	5856	2575	8974	2785	4107	7948	1427	4840	2941	2792	13160	3042	3417	2742	9900	3227	2054	8408	2707	4470	2901	1252	6553	3796	2378	3019	12330	5598	22010	8434	9132	4931	39860	21070	1501	8265	3318	4487	26270	8703	7161	1185	1146	34760	3704	15410	1499	1364	6466	1043	1178	2738	6666	7801	1953	2304	3795	17210	5456	13690	1412	3408	5825	2288	3049	5892	1003	5226	7800	2126	2855	7585	10520	2634	18970	4279	3039	16370	4419	5763	7092	4733	6599	8380	4292	14170	5214	2482	3486	2491	4576	1185	14360	3280	3868	2302	13130	3100	2499	3912	2611	635	889	14840	15110	3690	2132	11440	2518	2892	28570	6782	6315	7235	2220	2003	2224	3766	7921	749	2411	3442	2681	2201	2201	2385	4332	2343	4271	7274	5249	6513	10460	2943	3404	8494	5019	3414	1885	11820	8947	12410	2522	1919	12670	2303	5889	8589	4981	11370	2619	2277	1258	5080	2438	1983	1391	6807	2677	8356	4759	2174	626	12410	9810	2678	1892	2106	15610	11540	11340	10020	9659	4082	3356	2416	2972	1896	2688	2591	626	5241	2696	1943	2362	6447	18630	6652	2310	3425	11170	3007	3687	10770	2176	1426	2370	4071	3876	2514	6323
2020-12-25	910	1756	4487	2295	4447	4917	5031	1661	9970	11790	11950	2243	8801	3326	4736	4373	5409	10950	49160	3918	11150	6048	3144	16800	3183	8860	2901	32740	3690	2280	10130	3909	5378	17730	2237	11100	2987	4384	3939	5839	11280	9381	2531	5682	3452	6058	3230	3346	6232	7387	5389	2009	3497	10880	11030	3293	1789	1700	4600	3387	1260	1573	4769	1333	22600	11140	1577	2487	11790	3266	4101	5036	1660	9681	1465	14250	4105	5181	13210	11660	996	2290	2163	3502	4463	2139	11610	4855	3129	2125	2073	1378	3224	12700	6298	2088	3460	3175	2042	1844	3885	1305	2791	8627	4491	3267	1537	5258	2157	8999	3058	5386	1964	5977	2602	9299	2862	4123	8016	1437	4888	3093	2814	13350	3069	3511	2760	10050	3268	2064	8525	2740	4494	2952	1272	6710	3834	2396	3073	12410	5679	22120	8468	9218	4967	40000	21170	1516	8519	3355	4533	26380	8811	7359	1206	1153	34910	3732	15950	1512	1380	6626	1059	1187	2758	6705	7984	1998	2314	3831	17270	5492	13960	1444	3433	5832	2317	3082	5935	1024	5278	7835	2139	2874	7671	10600	2676	19010	4310	3059	16420	4441	5817	7229	4766	6718	8427	4350	14350	5239	2500	3568	2509	4643	1193	14410	3452	3889	2366	13220	3160	2508	3937	2701	641	895	14910	15230	3719	2164	11490	2538	2937	28660	6818	6437	7288	2258	2048	2269	3782	7982	754	2432	3481	2706	2233	2239	2402	4358	2383	4296	7330	5323	6769	11010	3008	3497	8534	5059	3442	1922	11860	8996	12510	2541	1938	12740	2353	5980	8756	5005	11400	2639	2358	1264	5119	2469	2014	1413	6932	2750	8666	4962	2183	634	12720	9865	2747	1937	2130	15670	11620	11590	10500	9721	4131	3435	2454	3023	1907	2732	2611	633	5264	2732	1972	2408	6612	18690	6710	2339	3460	11240	3094	3767	10890	2193	1439	2384	4145	3895	2532	6347
2020-12-26	924	1767	4522	2343	4468	4972	5144	1704	10190	12020	11990	2253	8968	3352	4775	4395	5540	11340	49380	3947	11180	6071	3167	16840	3203	8913	2980	32830	3777	2311	10260	4081	5421	17800	2276	11400	2996	4475	3957	5880	11320	9425	2563	5836	3461	6216	3258	3463	6307	7425	5560	2025	3546	10960	11120	3312	1822	1717	4628	3410	1263	1589	4823	1353	22720	11210	1586	2487	12060	3317	4127	5191	1667	9748	1474	14300	4136	5346	13280	11840	1007	2299	2191	3572	4498	2156	11670	4901	3165	2163	2092	1400	3289	12990	6526	2117	3481	3194	2076	1862	3947	1315	2802	8663	4520	3313	1554	5433	2167	9275	3076	5415	1972	6079	2621	9463	2942	4136	8141	1447	4915	3250	2866	13680	3096	3607	2765	10210	3309	2074	8655	2765	4512	2962	1293	6870	3889	2414	3127	12460	5762	22200	8489	9305	4988	40100	21270	1532	8781	3375	4578	26460	8923	7494	1227	1161	35000	3760	16250	1526	1395	6788	1064	1196	2778	6744	8171	2020	2324	3851	17320	5522	14240	1477	3444	5840	2347	3116	5965	1045	5310	7869	2151	2894	7758	10650	2719	19050	4342	3080	16470	4462	5848	7311	4784	6811	8458	4408	14530	5263	2517	3622	2526	4715	1200	14460	3575	3910	2447	13280	3221	2517	3953	2736	647	901	14960	15310	3749	2189	11530	2545	3013	28730	6842	6520	7316	2297	2093	2315	3797	8030	760	2454	3520	2730	2266	2270	2431	4384	2423	4326	7386	5397	7031	11010	3073	3593	8570	5086	3464	1960	11910	9046	12570	2552	1958	12790	2402	6076	8844	5029	11430	2650	2407	1280	5144	2500	2046	1424	7059	2824	8951	5077	2191	641	12940	9908	2799	1983	2149	15720	11700	11940	10620	9760	4181	3516	2492	3081	1917	2778	2631	640	5287	2768	2001	2456	6699	18720	6769	2355	3495	11290	3123	3827	10960	2208	1453	2398	4221	3912	2550	6371

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-20 to 2020-12-26

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-19	831	1687	4259	2021	4242	4589	4382	1421	8422	10787	11634	2188	7911	3076	4500	4211	4677	8796	47731	3748	10819	5869	3005	16452	2933	8410	2448	31987	3294	2090	9403	3016	5202	17211	2009	9083	2835	3416	3805	5519	10957	9120	2346	5353	3257	5146	3057	2957	5776	7159	4428	1911	3160	10616	10469	3156	1593	1592	4408	3241	1246	1496	4450	1212	21880	10578	1520	1998	10254	2975	3947	4198	1616	9275	1416	13722	3858	4233	12551	10882	926	2119	1948	3088	4253	2032	11245	4579	2920	1748	1957	1177	2844	11081	5032	1963	3342	3059	1840	1717	3518	1249	2723	8449	4200	2999	1432	4299	2099	7525	2949	5237	1910	5212	2478	7440	2435	4007	7677	1377	4679	2245	2661	12302	2903	2979	2667	9175	3013	1999	8005	2516	4341	2618	1152	5797	3653	2283	2760	11970	5203	21355	8321	8712	4781	39078	20387	1425	7120	3198	4260	25774	8191	5933	1088	1107	34087	3562	12876	1431	1290	5709	931	1134	2635	6469	6904	1758	2252	3630	16941	5264	12415	1254	3300	5786	2147	2883	5680	955	5010	7625	2063	2754	7164	10125	2436	18757	4122	2934	16077	4309	5583	6223	4586	5912	8157	4019	13308	5092	2392	3075	2402	4342	1148	14042	2471	3764	1950	12722	2794	2452	3778	2229	605	860	14581	14596	3540	2011	11266	2441	2651	27966	6585	5585	6977	2028	1781	2006	3691	7590	720	2303	3246	2558	2015	1986	2302	4201	2152	4141	6991	4876	5294	7841	2626	2965	8346	4799	3252	1693	11585	8697	11801	2366	1820	12377	2062	5433	7763	4865	11201	2543	1929	1229	4916	2289	1828	1317	6169	2322	6710	3619	2130	588	11376	9580	2412	1671	2016	15231	11150	9821	8537	9314	3835	2983	2237	2728	1842	2474	2496	591	5125	2518	1800	2133	5696	18228	6357	2109	3246	10875	2591	3254	10260	2152	1362	2300	3719	3775	2425	6196
2020-12-20	853	1704	4302	2065	4282	4713	4488	1450	8700	11020	11680	2193	8160	3114	4538	4234	4783	9090	48040	3774	10860	5895	3026	16510	2956	8483	2520	32100	3413	2118	9580	3150	5266	17290	2042	9380	2852	3537	3830	5563	11010	9159	2373	5460	3282	5270	3087	3066	5919	7200	4585	1931	3225	10700	10560	3179	1620	1624	4434	3308	1249	1510	4496	1233	22010	10670	1529	2040	10560	3035	3968	4327	1632	9343	1424	13780	3899	4345	12640	11070	940	2143	1972	3155	4279	2055	11290	4622	2966	1783	1977	1203	2913	11410	5238	1998	3359	3082	1871	1733	3622	1272	2738	8482	4240	3038	1451	4406	2120	7746	2991	5263	1922	5319	2502	7676	2517	4024	7844	1401	4714	2386	2714	12690	2933	3063	2679	9380	3046	2020	8161	2548	4364	2654	1169	5972	3723	2307	2810	12030	5319	21430	8346	8920	4804	39200	20500	1455	7319	3224	4302	25870	8306	6116	1139	1115	34200	3592	13230	1442	1310	5857	948	1154	2685	6506	7138	1791	2274	3651	16990	5298	12770	1274	3323	5805	2185	2910	5718	976	5050	7658	2076	2776	7243	10200	2482	18840	4153	2956	16130	4363	5617	6318	4615	6002	8194	4090	13710	5112	2414	3150	2424	4422	1155	14090	2599	3783	2027	12780	2839	2489	3805	2272	610	867	14640	14690	3573	2039	11310	2456	2726	28060	6622	5683	7024	2064	1827	2046	3724	7652	727	2324	3280	2584	2040	2021	2332	4225	2187	4168	7046	4943	5540	8092	2683	3042	8372	4835	3274	1726	11630	8748	11870	2391	1841	12430	2111	5563	7883	4912	11230	2555	1987	1244	4946	2331	1852	1333	6264	2387	6985	3747	2141	594	11630	9635	2481	1716	2039	15280	11230	10140	8730	9382	3873	3050	2280	2803	1868	2528	2553	597	5141	2552	1827	2173	5812	18290	6423	2137	3305	10930	2653	3318	10340	2167	1383	2319	3813	3794	2444	6234
2020-12-21	874	1718	4349	2122	4326	4904	4612	1482	9010	11290	11740	2202	8500	3149	4584	4266	4890	9400	48450	3803	10930	5925	3056	16570	3011	8571	2596	32220	3591	2148	9800	3286	5330	17390	2078	9720	2879	3670	3855	5614	11070	9200	2406	5592	3320	5435	3118	3200	6079	7240	4755	1950	3290	10790	10660	3204	1644	1654	4470	3374	1251	1524	4542	1251	22160	10780	1539	2073	10880	3111	3993	4467	1649	9419	1433	13900	3943	4494	12740	11280	957	2184	2006	3220	4308	2076	11360	4675	3025	1828	1996	1223	2979	11800	5476	2040	3387	3102	1901	1765	3751	1296	2750	8514	4288	3082	1469	4540	2150	7993	3043	5291	1931	5457	2523	7941	2616	4047	8062	1429	4751	2551	2780	13170	2959	3154	2696	9620	3075	2040	8328	2583	4402	2700	1182	6170	3810	2327	2861	12110	5449	21540	8376	9180	4832	39380	20670	1496	7571	3256	4359	25980	8433	6357	1195	1124	34350	3629	13710	1456	1330	6023	964	1177	2742	6550	7388	1824	2296	3701	17050	5339	13180	1298	3349	5829	2226	2942	5765	996	5103	7694	2089	2797	7330	10280	2525	18930	4189	2976	16190	4417	5661	6441	4651	6106	8240	4178	14150	5137	2435	3232	2443	4528	1163	14170	2749	3804	2170	12900	2896	2530	3831	2334	617	872	14700	14800	3620	2067	11350	2475	2813	28180	6664	5786	7080	2098	1874	2095	3762	7729	734	2347	3330	2610	2077	2057	2365	4252	2228	4199	7107	5010	5792	8336	2744	3121	8407	4883	3317	1762	11690	8800	12010	2427	1864	12500	2168	5735	8077	4960	11270	2574	2058	1258	4986	2376	1872	1352	6376	2452	7342	3907	2151	603	11960	9687	2563	1762	2075	15370	11320	10540	9000	9454	3917	3121	2319	2878	1896	2579	2634	606	5165	2592	1854	2227	5950	18370	6491	2164	3364	11000	2721	3413	10460	2182	1404	2344	3907	3817	2464	6260
2020-12-22	897	1730	4402	2175	4359	5102	4742	1514	9320	11580	11790	2210	8860	3183	4628	4295	5003	9710	48850	3833	10990	5956	3079	16630	3055	8652	2674	32330	3756	2178	10020	3424	5399	17490	2114	10070	2902	3798	3879	5671	11130	9241	2439	5717	3354	5603	3147	3330	6237	7278	4927	1972	3356	10880	10760	3232	1667	1684	4510	3439	1253	1537	4590	1269	22290	10890	1549	2124	11210	3171	4018	4606	1666	9492	1441	14000	3983	4641	12840	11540	975	2213	2039	3284	4337	2095	11420	4728	3081	1881	2015	1248	3045	12200	5720	2100	3407	3121	1931	1798	3883	1321	2760	8552	4327	3127	1487	4674	2178	8242	3090	5317	1939	5591	2544	8200	2718	4067	8281	1457	4789	2725	2855	13560	2984	3246	2712	9860	3103	2062	8493	2619	4430	2741	1195	6372	3890	2346	2908	12190	5581	21640	8400	9430	4868	39540	20820	1535	7833	3283	4417	26070	8558	6588	1255	1132	34500	3662	14230	1470	1350	6189	981	1199	2797	6593	7642	1859	2318	3738	17100	5382	13590	1321	3374	5852	2266	2975	5807	1015	5155	7729	2102	2818	7414	10370	2567	19020	4223	2997	16250	4467	5708	6568	4685	6220	8290	4269	14610	5162	2454	3324	2463	4617	1171	14240	2904	3825	2294	13010	2953	2575	3859	2387	623	878	14770	14940	3656	2095	11390	2494	2904	28300	6704	5900	7140	2133	1917	2145	3795	7809	741	2369	3369	2635	2117	2104	2398	4282	2274	4229	7168	5074	6050	8593	2804	3198	8443	4936	3353	1796	11740	8851	12140	2451	1887	12560	2220	5911	8278	5008	11300	2590	2130	1274	5021	2420	1892	1367	6488	2517	7695	4062	2159	612	12290	9735	2644	1803	2104	15450	11400	10950	9290	9516	3959	3190	2356	2966	1923	2631	2697	618	5188	2631	1884	2280	6112	18430	6556	2191	3422	11050	2784	3486	10570	2198	1424	2365	4000	3840	2483	6290
2020-12-23	918	1744	4445	2225	4395	5310	4874	1546	9640	11900	11840	2217	9210	3216	4669	4325	5100	10070	49230	3862	11040	5987	3102	16680	3101	8733	2753	32440	3902	2206	10260	3567	5473	17590	2150	10430	2925	3946	3903	5727	11180	9282	2473	5845	3389	5775	3169	3483	6402	7316	5101	1989	3422	10970	10850	3253	1690	1713	4537	3505	1255	1550	4636	1288	22420	10990	1558	2168	11540	3246	4043	4751	1683	9567	1449	14080	4018	4792	12930	11770	993	2240	2072	3348	4367	2109	11480	4780	3130	1920	2034	1267	3111	12610	5971	2146	3426	3140	1961	1825	4019	1344	2771	8586	4363	3173	1505	4807	2204	8523	3140	5346	1948	5732	2563	8497	2822	4085	8420	1484	4823	2908	2922	14070	3012	3342	2730	10110	3130	2083	8670	2655	4457	2784	1207	6579	3974	2365	2958	12260	5713	21720	8425	9710	4900	39710	20970	1577	8127	3310	4475	26160	8681	6824	1311	1141	34640	3699	14700	1483	1370	6363	999	1222	2856	6636	7905	1896	2339	3771	17160	5421	14070	1344	3395	5873	2308	3007	5847	1029	5198	7763	2115	2838	7496	10450	2612	19100	4257	3017	16310	4516	5751	6691	4720	6331	8341	4360	15100	5187	2473	3414	2482	4754	1178	14290	3068	3846	2388	13090	3006	2618	3886	2446	630	883	14830	15050	3687	2122	11430	2511	2997	28420	6742	6009	7199	2167	1963	2195	3831	7886	748	2392	3416	2660	2156	2149	2441	4309	2314	4254	7229	5138	6316	8883	2865	3274	8478	4980	3389	1832	11790	8901	12240	2480	1918	12620	2276	6098	8467	5058	11340	2608	2199	1288	5056	2465	1911	1383	6610	2582	8015	4221	2171	621	12650	9784	2729	1848	2132	15520	11480	11350	9590	9576	4000	3259	2394	3051	1949	2684	2771	627	5209	2672	1914	2329	6255	18500	6625	2220	3483	11100	2853	3567	10680	2213	1444	2386	4100	3864	2502	6319
2020-12-24	940	1756	4474	2273	4434	5528	4994	1579	9960	12220	11900	2224	9560	3253	4707	4352	5216	10320	49580	3892	11080	6015	3127	16740	3141	8797	2835	32570	4096	2235	10490	3712	5544	17660	2187	10800	2950	4084	3924	5776	11230	9323	2505	5981	3423	5952	3190	3608	6569	7353	5279	2010	3486	11050	10950	3276	1715	1743	4564	3572	1258	1564	4676	1306	22530	11080	1567	2208	11890	3319	4069	4892	1697	9639	1457	14150	4053	4939	13020	12000	1011	2265	2097	3413	4395	2130	11540	4826	3172	1963	2052	1287	3178	13030	6231	2195	3451	3159	1991	1853	4160	1364	2782	8608	4405	3219	1523	4940	2232	8800	3186	5366	1956	5878	2585	8787	2923	4102	8615	1511	4855	3102	2988	14650	3038	3441	2744	10360	3157	2103	8847	2690	4479	2831	1220	6792	4051	2385	3010	12320	5849	21810	8448	9980	4933	39860	21100	1612	8465	3335	4534	26260	8806	7062	1368	1148	34770	3726	15100	1497	1390	6543	1015	1246	2912	6675	8161	1927	2361	3805	17220	5458	14510	1368	3416	5896	2349	3040	5888	1048	5237	7796	2126	2856	7580	10520	2652	19190	4290	3038	16370	4564	5789	6777	4748	6441	8390	4451	15590	5212	2493	3485	2502	4889	1186	14350	3237	3867	2497	13160	3063	2658	3912	2526	637	890	14880	15140	3709	2145	11460	2524	3097	28530	6783	6121	7247	2202	2004	2237	3869	7947	755	2415	3456	2686	2189	2183	2480	4333	2355	4275	7291	5201	6591	9193	2925	3346	8513	5022	3423	1869	11830	8951	12340	2508	1939	12680	2328	6296	8663	5109	11370	2621	2267	1303	5091	2510	1931	1398	6705	2649	8353	4381	2180	628	13010	9824	2813	1892	2153	15570	11560	11740	9890	9634	4036	3333	2432	3134	1976	2738	2847	634	5233	2713	1936	2371	6394	18560	6688	2241	3545	11150	2926	3640	10780	2223	1465	2405	4184	3882	2522	6341
2020-12-25	961	1768	4506	2326	4465	5756	5116	1612	10310	12410	11950	2233	9870	3289	4748	4381	5329	10630	49900	3922	11140	6047	3158	16800	3182	8869	2918	32690	4197	2265	10720	3859	5602	17740	2225	11190	2971	4212	3948	5827	11280	9364	2538	6106	3452	6134	3216	3736	6741	7390	5461	2025	3555	11130	11040	3298	1738	1774	4599	3641	1259	1577	4720	1325	22650	11160	1577	2263	12240	3380	4094	5027	1714	9709	1464	14230	4091	5094	13120	12170	1030	2288	2126	3478	4425	2148	11590	4880	3219	2004	2069	1308	3247	13470	6502	2238	3467	3179	2022	1875	4308	1387	2795	8635	4443	3266	1541	5071	2264	9037	3225	5383	1965	6010	2606	9076	3037	4121	8820	1539	4891	3310	3037	15020	3063	3540	2761	10610	3186	2124	9030	2726	4500	2876	1232	7012	4136	2404	3059	12390	5985	21900	8472	10210	4959	40000	21210	1655	8652	3362	4594	26360	8931	7266	1428	1155	34900	3751	15550	1512	1410	6716	1029	1270	2972	6716	8453	1957	2384	3834	17270	5491	14880	1393	3434	5918	2392	3073	5926	1068	5276	7830	2139	2876	7665	10590	2692	19270	4318	3059	16420	4616	5830	6861	4774	6552	8435	4550	16100	5237	2509	3555	2521	4973	1194	14410	3417	3888	2607	13240	3114	2696	3934	2592	644	898	14940	15220	3738	2171	11490	2540	3170	28640	6822	6236	7299	2237	2044	2288	3903	8005	763	2439	3496	2712	2216	2218	2514	4359	2390	4298	7353	5266	6878	9431	2987	3423	8546	5065	3451	1904	11870	9003	12450	2526	1960	12740	2382	6474	8864	5154	11400	2638	2328	1315	5126	2556	1951	1416	6804	2718	8707	4548	2187	635	13370	9862	2903	1932	2178	15640	11630	12020	10230	9692	4076	3406	2471	3183	2004	2793	2889	643	5256	2754	1959	2414	6544	18630	6746	2263	3607	11210	2986	3710	10870	2239	1486	2424	4263	3902	2542	6362
2020-12-26	983	1777	4534	2376	4483	5998	5227	1646	10620	12620	12000	2240	10240	3314	4785	4403	5433	10910	50240	3952	11180	6076	3181	16840	3215	8937	3003	32810	4337	2293	10960	4015	5658	17810	2262	11580	2982	4346	3967	5877	11320	9406	2569	6240	3476	6322	3235	3879	6909	7427	5647	2037	3622	11200	11140	3316	1757	1805	4627	3710	1261	1589	4767	1344	22740	11240	1586	2279	12600	3437	4120	5164	1729	9769	1471	14280	4124	5253	13200	12340	1049	2306	2149	3545	4454	2163	11640	4932	3275	2035	2085	1326	3316	13920	6782	2278	3485	3198	2053	1893	4459	1402	2803	8662	4480	3314	1560	5202	2287	9288	3275	5403	1973	6142	2623	9304	3151	4137	8995	1568	4925	3530	3100	15460	3082	3641	2773	10850	3213	2140	9219	2761	4521	2911	1244	7239	4223	2424	3107	12450	6126	21970	8491	10490	4976	40110	21300	1690	8876	3384	4654	26440	9057	7469	1491	1164	35000	3776	15910	1526	1431	6897	1041	1294	3028	6755	8742	1989	2406	3855	17330	5522	15270	1418	3445	5938	2434	3107	5965	1081	5308	7859	2152	2893	7749	10660	2733	19350	4346	3080	16480	4663	5853	6933	4796	6652	8475	4646	16630	5262	2523	3622	2541	5064	1202	14450	3598	3909	2721	13310	3169	2735	3956	2633	650	901	14980	15280	3760	2196	11520	2552	3272	28740	6856	6343	7336	2273	2085	2334	3940	8062	770	2462	3536	2738	2237	2255	2545	4383	2422	4326	7416	5330	7174	9559	3050	3497	8573	5101	3477	1939	11910	9052	12530	2544	1976	12790	2441	6645	9026	5200	11420	2650	2393	1328	5152	2602	1971	1427	6894	2788	9087	4704	2192	642	13610	9900	2988	1971	2199	15690	11700	12390	10490	9748	4116	3479	2504	3227	2027	2850	2925	652	5282	2796	1982	2446	6672	18670	6793	2282	3667	11250	3025	3767	10950	2251	1507	2452	4358	3920	2560	6383

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-19