COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-19

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-19

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd) --10-2110-2712-0610-21 -- -- -- -- --10-1310-04 -- --10-2610-24 -- --11-0411-0210-1810-1110-2710-1211-1410-31 --10-29 --10-15 -- -- --10-28 -- --12-02 --10-0409-2710-2511-0311-01 --10-24 --11-09 -- --10-1312-0811-02 --10-2811-0210-19 -- --10-11 --10-3011-0111-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- --11-03 --11-0210-2511-0210-1410-31 --11-02 -- --11-01 -- --11-0910-2911-0111-02 -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- --11-3010-1110-3010-11 --11-03 -- -- -- --09-2710-25 --11-03 -- --10-26 -- --11-03 -- -- --11-02 --10-28 --11-02 -- -- --10-11 -- --12-08 --11-02 --11-02 --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-02 -- --11-0811-2909-29 -- -- --10-2609-2210-26 --11-03 -- -- -- -- --11-02 -- --11-0209-2709-2611-04 -- --10-1410-25 --10-2911-08 --11-0411-0311-0511-04 --11-03 --09-3011-0211-0210-25 --10-11 --11-03 --10-1312-06 --11-0310-26 --10-13 --11-0110-1812-0810-12 --10-17 -- --10-09 --11-0111-0310-2011-0211-01 --09-3011-08 --09-2911-01 --11-0212-08 -- --10-2610-3111-0411-01 --11-09 -- -- --10-13 --10-2511-03 -- -- -- -- --10-0611-0110-31 --10-1810-1211-01 --10-2911-02 -- --12-0711-0110-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- --11-08 -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- -- --10-2911-02 -- --10-2010-18 -- -- -- -- -- --12-0710-05 --12-08 -- --10-2111-09 -- --10-04 -- --11-0311-01 -- -- --10-1111-0310-06
Peak daily increment 29 82 60 62 191 28 77 72 625 63 163 99 55 235 48 135 441 50 321 64 57 70 159 141 49 52 41 131 197 27 128 145 53 62 23 20 69 293 144 20 53 29 165 29 249 57 252 38 110 31 225 77 32 55 75 48 41 129 71 24 71 32 44 65 75 48 43 52 59 290 29 285 360 152 85 542 254 62 99 529 14 610 61 29 91 36 55 392 85 51 159 49 110 91 121 35 58 131 609 67 40 257 64 82 101 112 94 43 41 19 197 163 64 199 67 8 17 242 231 85 184 37 435 113 95 42 66 141 12 27 83 70 76 89 117 82 57 183 125 193 33 160 227 66 177 46 90 21 47 138 261 162 135 58 20 91 37 320 93 137 138 37 65 41 130
Days since peak 59 53 13 59 67 76 54 56 45 47 62 69 53 68 35 49 51 65 52 17 76 83 55 46 48 56 40 67 11 47 52 47 61 69 50 48 47 77 47 48 46 47 55 47 66 49 47 48 40 51 48 47 60 69 83 19 69 50 69 46 83 55 46 54 46 47 52 47 69 11 47 47 53 81 73 83 47 41 20 81 54 88 54 46 47 47 83 84 45 66 55 51 41 45 46 44 45 46 80 47 47 55 69 46 67 13 46 54 67 48 62 11 68 63 71 48 46 60 47 48 80 41 81 48 47 11 54 49 45 48 40 67 55 46 74 48 49 62 68 48 51 47 12 48 62 51 46 41 55 67 51 47 60 62 12 75 11 59 40 76 46 48 69 46 74
Last total 831 1687 4259 2021 4242 4589 4382 1421 8422 10787 11634 2188 7911 3076 4500 4211 4677 8796 47731 3748 10819 5869 3005 16452 2933 8410 2448 31987 3294 2090 9403 3016 5202 17211 2009 9083 2835 3416 3805 5519 10957 9120 2346 5353 3257 5146 3057 2957 5776 7159 4428 1911 3160 10616 10469 3156 1593 1592 4408 3241 1246 1496 4450 1212 21880 10578 1520 1998 10254 2975 3947 4198 1616 9275 1416 13722 3858 4233 12551 10882 926 2119 1948 3088 4253 2032 11245 4579 2920 1748 1957 1177 2844 11081 5032 1963 3342 3059 1840 1717 3518 1249 2723 8449 4200 2999 1432 4299 2099 7525 2949 5237 1910 5212 2478 7440 2435 4007 7677 1377 4679 2245 2661 12302 2903 2979 2667 9175 3013 1999 8005 2516 4341 2618 1152 5797 3653 2283 2760 11970 5203 21355 8321 8712 4781 39078 20387 1425 7120 3198 4260 25774 8191 5933 1088 1107 34087 3562 12876 1431 1290 5709 931 1134 2635 6469 6904 1758 2252 3630 16941 5264 12415 1254 3300 5786 2147 2883 5680 955 5010 7625 2063 2754 7164 10125 2436 18757 4122 2934 16077 4309 5583 6223 4586 5912 8157 4019 13308 5092 2392 3075 2402 4342 1148 14042 2471 3764 1950 12722 2794 2452 3778 2229 605 860 14581 14596 3540 2011 11266 2441 2651 27966 6585 5585 6977 2028 1781 2006 3691 7590 720 2303 3246 2558 2015 1986 2302 4201 2152 4141 6991 4876 5294 7841 2626 2965 8346 4799 3252 1693 11585 8697 11801 2366 1820 12377 2062 5433 7763 4865 11201 2543 1929 1229 4916 2289 1828 1317 6169 2322 6710 3619 2130 588 11376 9580 2412 1671 2016 15231 11150 9821 8537 9314 3835 2983 2237 2728 1842 2474 2496 591 5125 2518 1800 2133 5696 18228 6357 2109 3246 10875 2591 3254 10260 2152 1362 2300 3719 3775 2425 6196
Last daily increment 15 15 46 24 24 53 105 8 153 225 46 5 166 35 41 25 112 243 197 20 31 21 19 51 19 51 51 87 59 21 112 106 55 74 27 233 11 84 21 37 51 33 16 76 10 50 35 95 126 51 107 12 56 81 82 25 25 27 33 47 1 21 43 17 142 75 10 18 215 57 12 93 14 68 4 50 37 53 80 122 7 10 29 52 21 20 26 31 28 38 17 22 60 203 125 26 25 18 29 6 57 19 17 47 33 16 19 72 17 151 32 36 12 89 23 167 46 16 134 16 30 84 49 296 29 95 5 104 42 13 119 24 17 15 21 136 57 21 40 35 72 87 29 142 25 120 122 27 139 21 25 90 101 81 33 8 101 37 223 4 12 78 3 13 28 36 197 16 18 19 34 34 206 12 14 18 31 20 34 26 39 30 8 14 66 63 31 74 21 26 54 46 38 62 19 92 32 29 310 12 17 36 18 58 4 55 77 14 69 62 19 22 18 41 4 3 57 96 22 32 55 5 69 68 29 62 29 37 32 17 26 51 8 11 29 23 39 28 32 17 21 31 49 85 183 161 34 77 46 34 24 31 58 49 61 15 12 51 33 78 64 32 33 10 44 21 31 19 33 14 75 57 203 60 5 1 207 49 49 24 23 58 77 301 171 41 30 68 34 53 21 46 31 6 21 21 26 18 84 42 45 33 46 69 42 45 80 17 20 24 57 21 8 39
Last week 164 113 309 321 261 1012 748 201 1809 1888 384 45 1781 256 276 202 681 1962 2581 186 363 186 166 387 265 553 449 766 847 193 1403 786 582 658 247 1980 164 694 171 362 341 274 220 927 214 856 199 859 995 293 1051 142 479 649 653 182 168 200 214 538 20 109 371 126 958 720 69 258 2065 434 174 834 130 522 70 545 281 757 685 1430 106 183 233 452 200 131 421 322 319 287 136 161 436 2243 1360 316 144 158 218 171 783 155 86 255 315 274 136 763 187 1526 368 216 85 820 167 1554 601 124 1248 188 273 757 434 2705 209 582 90 1457 207 165 1232 235 203 279 126 1232 560 158 319 523 841 594 196 1680 235 1018 935 272 1488 200 319 721 934 1088 309 66 921 249 2532 81 151 1076 106 169 382 294 1536 217 167 243 366 277 2426 151 169 150 285 182 310 156 354 241 93 163 562 547 328 682 242 146 411 379 304 684 239 696 315 593 2791 144 178 485 142 735 48 391 823 142 564 544 351 296 194 360 34 46 422 809 255 210 318 114 548 723 257 670 347 251 290 305 213 478 63 175 270 173 247 248 236 185 231 190 384 492 1551 1597 417 522 247 284 230 273 361 343 728 162 160 408 314 997 1164 348 267 121 384 118 263 360 165 125 789 436 1933 770 88 66 2276 361 483 281 220 470 599 2080 1765 470 284 426 283 515 202 349 410 76 149 238 195 314 884 420 463 207 416 400 433 483 714 127 155 160 571 144 137 233
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 68 59 75 75 74 27
Low between peaks 27 2 1 7 14 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-20 to 2020-12-26

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-19 831 1687 4259 2021 4242 4589 4382 1421 8422 10787 11634 2188 7911 3076 4500 4211 4677 8796 47731 3748 10819 5869 3005 16452 2933 8410 2448 31987 3294 2090 9403 3016 5202 17211 2009 9083 2835 3416 3805 5519 10957 9120 2346 5353 3257 5146 3057 2957 5776 7159 4428 1911 3160 10616 10469 3156 1593 1592 4408 3241 1246 1496 4450 1212 21880 10578 1520 1998 10254 2975 3947 4198 1616 9275 1416 13722 3858 4233 12551 10882 926 2119 1948 3088 4253 2032 11245 4579 2920 1748 1957 1177 2844 11081 5032 1963 3342 3059 1840 1717 3518 1249 2723 8449 4200 2999 1432 4299 2099 7525 2949 5237 1910 5212 2478 7440 2435 4007 7677 1377 4679 2245 2661 12302 2903 2979 2667 9175 3013 1999 8005 2516 4341 2618 1152 5797 3653 2283 2760 11970 5203 21355 8321 8712 4781 39078 20387 1425 7120 3198 4260 25774 8191 5933 1088 1107 34087 3562 12876 1431 1290 5709 931 1134 2635 6469 6904 1758 2252 3630 16941 5264 12415 1254 3300 5786 2147 2883 5680 955 5010 7625 2063 2754 7164 10125 2436 18757 4122 2934 16077 4309 5583 6223 4586 5912 8157 4019 13308 5092 2392 3075 2402 4342 1148 14042 2471 3764 1950 12722 2794 2452 3778 2229 605 860 14581 14596 3540 2011 11266 2441 2651 27966 6585 5585 6977 2028 1781 2006 3691 7590 720 2303 3246 2558 2015 1986 2302 4201 2152 4141 6991 4876 5294 7841 2626 2965 8346 4799 3252 1693 11585 8697 11801 2366 1820 12377 2062 5433 7763 4865 11201 2543 1929 1229 4916 2289 1828 1317 6169 2322 6710 3619 2130 588 11376 9580 2412 1671 2016 15231 11150 9821 8537 9314 3835 2983 2237 2728 1842 2474 2496 591 5125 2518 1800 2133 5696 18228 6357 2109 3246 10875 2591 3254 10260 2152 1362 2300 3719 3775 2425 6196
2020-12-20 844 1699 4259 2066 4242 4643 4426 1459 8670 10790 11650 2197 8043 3100 4540 4216 4798 9150 47740 3777 10850 5893 3029 16510 2958 8475 2521 32140 3294 2127 9510 3151 5202 17230 2046 9290 2852 3595 3807 5570 11000 9164 2376 5353 3270 5297 3088 2957 5854 7199 4581 1928 3197 10620 10560 3156 1630 1612 4427 3267 1248 1496 4503 1232 22010 10580 1530 2056 10500 3022 3973 4328 1624 9345 1425 13800 3898 4390 12620 10880 938 2130 1970 3157 4289 2050 11310 4625 2953 1801 1977 1208 2907 11340 5232 1963 3350 3079 1875 1720 3579 1258 2735 8449 4253 3043 1450 4455 2108 7747 2968 5237 1920 5264 2478 7700 2500 4025 7677 1387 4680 2378 2661 12300 2933 3065 2678 9310 3060 2011 8005 2551 4341 2687 1174 5945 3653 2303 2812 12010 5281 21510 8321 8794 4781 39190 20450 1439 7332 3198 4305 25850 8206 6211 1107 1115 34160 3592 13220 1445 1305 5853 961 1143 2656 6509 7084 1793 2262 3634 17000 5278 12660 1287 3300 5794 2174 2916 5697 955 5010 7661 2076 2775 7248 10160 2473 18800 4153 2956 16110 4332 5583 6402 4586 6023 8171 4070 13480 5117 2411 3157 2421 4342 1156 14110 2644 3785 1985 12770 2858 2463 3795 2259 611 866 14590 14610 3571 2018 11270 2446 2651 28080 6609 5764 7002 2067 1826 2049 3705 7606 726 2325 3286 2584 2040 2025 2302 4228 2189 4154 7049 4952 5534 8330 2690 3052 8347 4819 3254 1734 11630 8749 11890 2412 1840 12420 2110 5433 7804 4887 11210 2549 1983 1229 4916 2318 1860 1317 6299 2392 7075 3867 2139 596 11380 9611 2437 1715 2016 15310 11170 9980 8540 9379 3886 3057 2271 2728 1853 2516 2514 598 5149 2554 1829 2178 5805 18340 6417 2150 3282 10930 2667 3313 10300 2152 1374 2314 3786 3782 2444 6223
2020-12-21 857 1711 4312 2111 4286 4698 4547 1498 8910 10990 11720 2206 8182 3138 4580 4250 4917 9500 48080 3806 10930 5924 3052 16580 3027 8562 2596 32280 3410 2158 9620 3291 5233 17340 2084 9610 2884 3761 3835 5620 11090 9208 2407 5414 3313 5449 3118 3031 5930 7237 4736 1945 3259 10670 10650 3185 1662 1630 4467 3291 1251 1511 4556 1252 22130 10710 1539 2119 10750 3069 3998 4460 1631 9413 1433 13920 3950 4545 12740 10990 949 2181 2009 3226 4324 2068 11370 4672 2987 1867 1996 1242 2970 11600 5436 1980 3380 3099 1909 1749 3640 1267 2746 8484 4318 3087 1468 4610 2117 7978 2986 5270 1929 5416 2501 7999 2567 4053 7725 1397 4724 2514 2684 12510 2961 3150 2697 9450 3103 2022 8089 2591 4391 2743 1193 6095 3702 2322 2863 12100 5358 21650 8358 8878 4812 39380 20630 1454 7554 3236 4351 25970 8346 6456 1126 1123 34330 3621 13780 1459 1319 6001 982 1152 2677 6549 7261 1828 2273 3684 17050 5327 12910 1319 3333 5802 2201 2949 5763 970 5072 7696 2088 2795 7332 10260 2510 18840 4184 2977 16180 4354 5628 6585 4627 6152 8219 4125 13650 5142 2429 3235 2439 4388 1163 14180 2808 3806 2087 12890 2920 2472 3825 2336 617 872 14650 14730 3601 2048 11320 2467 2712 28210 6661 5885 7061 2105 1870 2092 3721 7690 732 2347 3326 2608 2081 2060 2320 4254 2226 4187 7106 5027 5775 8830 2753 3138 8382 4875 3303 1773 11680 8799 12050 2448 1860 12490 2158 5526 7987 4910 11250 2570 2064 1233 4965 2348 1890 1342 6426 2463 7397 4116 2148 603 11590 9671 2505 1760 2048 15410 11280 10350 8870 9465 3934 3129 2306 2782 1864 2558 2532 605 5172 2590 1858 2224 5955 18430 6476 2192 3317 11010 2753 3420 10430 2160 1387 2328 3855 3807 2462 6249
2020-12-22 871 1723 4374 2157 4321 4754 4667 1538 9160 11180 11790 2216 8329 3180 4619 4281 5038 9860 48400 3834 10990 5956 3076 16630 3073 8640 2670 32380 3499 2189 9750 3436 5253 17440 2122 9970 2912 3907 3861 5680 11150 9251 2437 5469 3348 5597 3146 3094 6006 7275 4894 1961 3320 10720 10750 3218 1694 1648 4513 3317 1253 1528 4609 1272 22250 10840 1549 2204 11000 3118 4024 4599 1639 9481 1441 14030 3994 4702 12880 11170 961 2212 2050 3295 4359 2086 11430 4717 3022 1942 2016 1284 3033 11870 5643 2015 3399 3119 1942 1779 3701 1277 2757 8536 4362 3132 1485 4767 2127 8223 3005 5301 1938 5545 2526 8301 2638 4073 7828 1407 4773 2652 2724 12650 2989 3238 2712 9600 3146 2033 8163 2635 4421 2792 1213 6246 3727 2341 2915 12190 5439 21780 8384 8962 4855 39540 20780 1470 7783 3265 4396 26080 8475 6690 1145 1131 34490 3649 14360 1472 1335 6153 1002 1161 2698 6588 7441 1868 2284 3723 17100 5376 13170 1350 3361 5810 2230 2982 5809 982 5132 7731 2101 2815 7416 10360 2552 18890 4216 2998 16250 4377 5679 6773 4664 6309 8272 4180 13820 5166 2447 3321 2457 4415 1170 14250 2957 3827 2170 12990 2982 2481 3859 2407 623 878 14730 14870 3631 2080 11370 2490 2777 28340 6704 6034 7124 2143 1915 2136 3736 7780 737 2369 3365 2633 2125 2115 2335 4280 2265 4220 7162 5102 6018 9330 2816 3226 8421 4935 3342 1811 11730 8849 12200 2470 1880 12550 2206 5614 8195 4934 11290 2586 2152 1243 5004 2377 1921 1357 6555 2534 7712 4337 2157 611 11790 9724 2558 1804 2073 15490 11370 10690 9230 9533 3984 3204 2343 2853 1875 2601 2552 612 5195 2625 1886 2269 6139 18490 6535 2235 3354 11060 2836 3502 10550 2169 1400 2342 3927 3833 2479 6275
2020-12-23 884 1734 4417 2203 4356 4808 4789 1578 9420 11410 11840 2225 8481 3221 4658 4310 5159 10220 48680 3862 11030 5988 3098 16690 3121 8719 2746 32490 3525 2219 9870 3587 5299 17550 2160 10350 2940 4081 3885 5740 11190 9295 2468 5516 3384 5749 3174 3198 6081 7313 5056 1977 3374 10770 10840 3238 1725 1665 4538 3340 1256 1543 4662 1292 22360 10930 1558 2280 11260 3167 4050 4740 1646 9547 1449 14100 4029 4859 12980 11310 972 2238 2089 3363 4394 2103 11490 4763 3057 1998 2035 1309 3096 12140 5856 2031 3418 3137 1975 1797 3761 1286 2768 8575 4401 3176 1502 4926 2137 8473 3023 5334 1946 5702 2544 8650 2710 4092 7828 1417 4808 2794 2754 12820 3016 3326 2730 9750 3186 2043 8305 2672 4448 2843 1233 6398 3763 2359 2967 12260 5518 21890 8411 9047 4893 39710 20930 1485 8020 3292 4441 26170 8581 6916 1165 1138 34640 3676 14910 1486 1349 6309 1025 1169 2718 6627 7620 1912 2294 3756 17160 5417 13430 1381 3382 5817 2259 3015 5852 989 5176 7766 2113 2835 7500 10440 2592 18930 4247 3018 16310 4398 5722 6957 4703 6453 8325 4236 14000 5190 2465 3407 2474 4492 1178 14300 3126 3848 2218 13070 3041 2490 3888 2485 629 884 14780 14990 3660 2109 11410 2505 2820 28460 6738 6165 7185 2181 1959 2180 3751 7861 743 2390 3403 2657 2165 2168 2360 4306 2304 4243 7218 5175 6263 9870 2880 3314 8458 4978 3377 1848 11770 8898 12310 2498 1899 12620 2255 5717 8370 4958 11330 2605 2217 1247 5043 2407 1952 1373 6681 2605 8005 4548 2165 618 12060 9774 2625 1848 2094 15550 11460 11010 9590 9590 4033 3279 2379 2908 1886 2644 2572 619 5218 2660 1915 2315 6282 18560 6593 2279 3389 11110 2914 3596 10660 2176 1413 2356 3998 3859 2497 6299
2020-12-24 897 1745 4450 2249 4403 4862 4913 1619 9700 11610 11890 2234 8638 3273 4697 4339 5282 10580 48930 3890 11090 6015 3121 16740 3153 8781 2823 32620 3642 2250 10000 3744 5352 17640 2198 10740 2963 4238 3907 5797 11230 9338 2500 5597 3423 5902 3202 3278 6156 7350 5221 1993 3434 10830 10930 3262 1756 1682 4564 3364 1258 1559 4716 1312 22480 11040 1567 2374 11520 3216 4075 4885 1653 9614 1457 14180 4064 5018 13100 11450 984 2263 2120 3432 4428 2121 11550 4809 3093 2072 2054 1340 3160 12420 6074 2068 3442 3156 2009 1823 3823 1296 2780 8595 4454 3221 1519 5089 2147 8732 3041 5360 1955 5856 2575 8974 2785 4107 7948 1427 4840 2941 2792 13160 3042 3417 2742 9900 3227 2054 8408 2707 4470 2901 1252 6553 3796 2378 3019 12330 5598 22010 8434 9132 4931 39860 21070 1501 8265 3318 4487 26270 8703 7161 1185 1146 34760 3704 15410 1499 1364 6466 1043 1178 2738 6666 7801 1953 2304 3795 17210 5456 13690 1412 3408 5825 2288 3049 5892 1003 5226 7800 2126 2855 7585 10520 2634 18970 4279 3039 16370 4419 5763 7092 4733 6599 8380 4292 14170 5214 2482 3486 2491 4576 1185 14360 3280 3868 2302 13130 3100 2499 3912 2611 635 889 14840 15110 3690 2132 11440 2518 2892 28570 6782 6315 7235 2220 2003 2224 3766 7921 749 2411 3442 2681 2201 2201 2385 4332 2343 4271 7274 5249 6513 10460 2943 3404 8494 5019 3414 1885 11820 8947 12410 2522 1919 12670 2303 5889 8589 4981 11370 2619 2277 1258 5080 2438 1983 1391 6807 2677 8356 4759 2174 626 12410 9810 2678 1892 2106 15610 11540 11340 10020 9659 4082 3356 2416 2972 1896 2688 2591 626 5241 2696 1943 2362 6447 18630 6652 2310 3425 11170 3007 3687 10770 2176 1426 2370 4071 3876 2514 6323
2020-12-25 910 1756 4487 2295 4447 4917 5031 1661 9970 11790 11950 2243 8801 3326 4736 4373 5409 10950 49160 3918 11150 6048 3144 16800 3183 8860 2901 32740 3690 2280 10130 3909 5378 17730 2237 11100 2987 4384 3939 5839 11280 9381 2531 5682 3452 6058 3230 3346 6232 7387 5389 2009 3497 10880 11030 3293 1789 1700 4600 3387 1260 1573 4769 1333 22600 11140 1577 2487 11790 3266 4101 5036 1660 9681 1465 14250 4105 5181 13210 11660 996 2290 2163 3502 4463 2139 11610 4855 3129 2125 2073 1378 3224 12700 6298 2088 3460 3175 2042 1844 3885 1305 2791 8627 4491 3267 1537 5258 2157 8999 3058 5386 1964 5977 2602 9299 2862 4123 8016 1437 4888 3093 2814 13350 3069 3511 2760 10050 3268 2064 8525 2740 4494 2952 1272 6710 3834 2396 3073 12410 5679 22120 8468 9218 4967 40000 21170 1516 8519 3355 4533 26380 8811 7359 1206 1153 34910 3732 15950 1512 1380 6626 1059 1187 2758 6705 7984 1998 2314 3831 17270 5492 13960 1444 3433 5832 2317 3082 5935 1024 5278 7835 2139 2874 7671 10600 2676 19010 4310 3059 16420 4441 5817 7229 4766 6718 8427 4350 14350 5239 2500 3568 2509 4643 1193 14410 3452 3889 2366 13220 3160 2508 3937 2701 641 895 14910 15230 3719 2164 11490 2538 2937 28660 6818 6437 7288 2258 2048 2269 3782 7982 754 2432 3481 2706 2233 2239 2402 4358 2383 4296 7330 5323 6769 11010 3008 3497 8534 5059 3442 1922 11860 8996 12510 2541 1938 12740 2353 5980 8756 5005 11400 2639 2358 1264 5119 2469 2014 1413 6932 2750 8666 4962 2183 634 12720 9865 2747 1937 2130 15670 11620 11590 10500 9721 4131 3435 2454 3023 1907 2732 2611 633 5264 2732 1972 2408 6612 18690 6710 2339 3460 11240 3094 3767 10890 2193 1439 2384 4145 3895 2532 6347
2020-12-26 924 1767 4522 2343 4468 4972 5144 1704 10190 12020 11990 2253 8968 3352 4775 4395 5540 11340 49380 3947 11180 6071 3167 16840 3203 8913 2980 32830 3777 2311 10260 4081 5421 17800 2276 11400 2996 4475 3957 5880 11320 9425 2563 5836 3461 6216 3258 3463 6307 7425 5560 2025 3546 10960 11120 3312 1822 1717 4628 3410 1263 1589 4823 1353 22720 11210 1586 2487 12060 3317 4127 5191 1667 9748 1474 14300 4136 5346 13280 11840 1007 2299 2191 3572 4498 2156 11670 4901 3165 2163 2092 1400 3289 12990 6526 2117 3481 3194 2076 1862 3947 1315 2802 8663 4520 3313 1554 5433 2167 9275 3076 5415 1972 6079 2621 9463 2942 4136 8141 1447 4915 3250 2866 13680 3096 3607 2765 10210 3309 2074 8655 2765 4512 2962 1293 6870 3889 2414 3127 12460 5762 22200 8489 9305 4988 40100 21270 1532 8781 3375 4578 26460 8923 7494 1227 1161 35000 3760 16250 1526 1395 6788 1064 1196 2778 6744 8171 2020 2324 3851 17320 5522 14240 1477 3444 5840 2347 3116 5965 1045 5310 7869 2151 2894 7758 10650 2719 19050 4342 3080 16470 4462 5848 7311 4784 6811 8458 4408 14530 5263 2517 3622 2526 4715 1200 14460 3575 3910 2447 13280 3221 2517 3953 2736 647 901 14960 15310 3749 2189 11530 2545 3013 28730 6842 6520 7316 2297 2093 2315 3797 8030 760 2454 3520 2730 2266 2270 2431 4384 2423 4326 7386 5397 7031 11010 3073 3593 8570 5086 3464 1960 11910 9046 12570 2552 1958 12790 2402 6076 8844 5029 11430 2650 2407 1280 5144 2500 2046 1424 7059 2824 8951 5077 2191 641 12940 9908 2799 1983 2149 15720 11700 11940 10620 9760 4181 3516 2492 3081 1917 2778 2631 640 5287 2768 2001 2456 6699 18720 6769 2355 3495 11290 3123 3827 10960 2208 1453 2398 4221 3912 2550 6371

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-20 to 2020-12-26

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-19 831 1687 4259 2021 4242 4589 4382 1421 8422 10787 11634 2188 7911 3076 4500 4211 4677 8796 47731 3748 10819 5869 3005 16452 2933 8410 2448 31987 3294 2090 9403 3016 5202 17211 2009 9083 2835 3416 3805 5519 10957 9120 2346 5353 3257 5146 3057 2957 5776 7159 4428 1911 3160 10616 10469 3156 1593 1592 4408 3241 1246 1496 4450 1212 21880 10578 1520 1998 10254 2975 3947 4198 1616 9275 1416 13722 3858 4233 12551 10882 926 2119 1948 3088 4253 2032 11245 4579 2920 1748 1957 1177 2844 11081 5032 1963 3342 3059 1840 1717 3518 1249 2723 8449 4200 2999 1432 4299 2099 7525 2949 5237 1910 5212 2478 7440 2435 4007 7677 1377 4679 2245 2661 12302 2903 2979 2667 9175 3013 1999 8005 2516 4341 2618 1152 5797 3653 2283 2760 11970 5203 21355 8321 8712 4781 39078 20387 1425 7120 3198 4260 25774 8191 5933 1088 1107 34087 3562 12876 1431 1290 5709 931 1134 2635 6469 6904 1758 2252 3630 16941 5264 12415 1254 3300 5786 2147 2883 5680 955 5010 7625 2063 2754 7164 10125 2436 18757 4122 2934 16077 4309 5583 6223 4586 5912 8157 4019 13308 5092 2392 3075 2402 4342 1148 14042 2471 3764 1950 12722 2794 2452 3778 2229 605 860 14581 14596 3540 2011 11266 2441 2651 27966 6585 5585 6977 2028 1781 2006 3691 7590 720 2303 3246 2558 2015 1986 2302 4201 2152 4141 6991 4876 5294 7841 2626 2965 8346 4799 3252 1693 11585 8697 11801 2366 1820 12377 2062 5433 7763 4865 11201 2543 1929 1229 4916 2289 1828 1317 6169 2322 6710 3619 2130 588 11376 9580 2412 1671 2016 15231 11150 9821 8537 9314 3835 2983 2237 2728 1842 2474 2496 591 5125 2518 1800 2133 5696 18228 6357 2109 3246 10875 2591 3254 10260 2152 1362 2300 3719 3775 2425 6196
2020-12-20 853 1704 4302 2065 4282 4713 4488 1450 8700 11020 11680 2193 8160 3114 4538 4234 4783 9090 48040 3774 10860 5895 3026 16510 2956 8483 2520 32100 3413 2118 9580 3150 5266 17290 2042 9380 2852 3537 3830 5563 11010 9159 2373 5460 3282 5270 3087 3066 5919 7200 4585 1931 3225 10700 10560 3179 1620 1624 4434 3308 1249 1510 4496 1233 22010 10670 1529 2040 10560 3035 3968 4327 1632 9343 1424 13780 3899 4345 12640 11070 940 2143 1972 3155 4279 2055 11290 4622 2966 1783 1977 1203 2913 11410 5238 1998 3359 3082 1871 1733 3622 1272 2738 8482 4240 3038 1451 4406 2120 7746 2991 5263 1922 5319 2502 7676 2517 4024 7844 1401 4714 2386 2714 12690 2933 3063 2679 9380 3046 2020 8161 2548 4364 2654 1169 5972 3723 2307 2810 12030 5319 21430 8346 8920 4804 39200 20500 1455 7319 3224 4302 25870 8306 6116 1139 1115 34200 3592 13230 1442 1310 5857 948 1154 2685 6506 7138 1791 2274 3651 16990 5298 12770 1274 3323 5805 2185 2910 5718 976 5050 7658 2076 2776 7243 10200 2482 18840 4153 2956 16130 4363 5617 6318 4615 6002 8194 4090 13710 5112 2414 3150 2424 4422 1155 14090 2599 3783 2027 12780 2839 2489 3805 2272 610 867 14640 14690 3573 2039 11310 2456 2726 28060 6622 5683 7024 2064 1827 2046 3724 7652 727 2324 3280 2584 2040 2021 2332 4225 2187 4168 7046 4943 5540 8092 2683 3042 8372 4835 3274 1726 11630 8748 11870 2391 1841 12430 2111 5563 7883 4912 11230 2555 1987 1244 4946 2331 1852 1333 6264 2387 6985 3747 2141 594 11630 9635 2481 1716 2039 15280 11230 10140 8730 9382 3873 3050 2280 2803 1868 2528 2553 597 5141 2552 1827 2173 5812 18290 6423 2137 3305 10930 2653 3318 10340 2167 1383 2319 3813 3794 2444 6234
2020-12-21 874 1718 4349 2122 4326 4904 4612 1482 9010 11290 11740 2202 8500 3149 4584 4266 4890 9400 48450 3803 10930 5925 3056 16570 3011 8571 2596 32220 3591 2148 9800 3286 5330 17390 2078 9720 2879 3670 3855 5614 11070 9200 2406 5592 3320 5435 3118 3200 6079 7240 4755 1950 3290 10790 10660 3204 1644 1654 4470 3374 1251 1524 4542 1251 22160 10780 1539 2073 10880 3111 3993 4467 1649 9419 1433 13900 3943 4494 12740 11280 957 2184 2006 3220 4308 2076 11360 4675 3025 1828 1996 1223 2979 11800 5476 2040 3387 3102 1901 1765 3751 1296 2750 8514 4288 3082 1469 4540 2150 7993 3043 5291 1931 5457 2523 7941 2616 4047 8062 1429 4751 2551 2780 13170 2959 3154 2696 9620 3075 2040 8328 2583 4402 2700 1182 6170 3810 2327 2861 12110 5449 21540 8376 9180 4832 39380 20670 1496 7571 3256 4359 25980 8433 6357 1195 1124 34350 3629 13710 1456 1330 6023 964 1177 2742 6550 7388 1824 2296 3701 17050 5339 13180 1298 3349 5829 2226 2942 5765 996 5103 7694 2089 2797 7330 10280 2525 18930 4189 2976 16190 4417 5661 6441 4651 6106 8240 4178 14150 5137 2435 3232 2443 4528 1163 14170 2749 3804 2170 12900 2896 2530 3831 2334 617 872 14700 14800 3620 2067 11350 2475 2813 28180 6664 5786 7080 2098 1874 2095 3762 7729 734 2347 3330 2610 2077 2057 2365 4252 2228 4199 7107 5010 5792 8336 2744 3121 8407 4883 3317 1762 11690 8800 12010 2427 1864 12500 2168 5735 8077 4960 11270 2574 2058 1258 4986 2376 1872 1352 6376 2452 7342 3907 2151 603 11960 9687 2563 1762 2075 15370 11320 10540 9000 9454 3917 3121 2319 2878 1896 2579 2634 606 5165 2592 1854 2227 5950 18370 6491 2164 3364 11000 2721 3413 10460 2182 1404 2344 3907 3817 2464 6260
2020-12-22 897 1730 4402 2175 4359 5102 4742 1514 9320 11580 11790 2210 8860 3183 4628 4295 5003 9710 48850 3833 10990 5956 3079 16630 3055 8652 2674 32330 3756 2178 10020 3424 5399 17490 2114 10070 2902 3798 3879 5671 11130 9241 2439 5717 3354 5603 3147 3330 6237 7278 4927 1972 3356 10880 10760 3232 1667 1684 4510 3439 1253 1537 4590 1269 22290 10890 1549 2124 11210 3171 4018 4606 1666 9492 1441 14000 3983 4641 12840 11540 975 2213 2039 3284 4337 2095 11420 4728 3081 1881 2015 1248 3045 12200 5720 2100 3407 3121 1931 1798 3883 1321 2760 8552 4327 3127 1487 4674 2178 8242 3090 5317 1939 5591 2544 8200 2718 4067 8281 1457 4789 2725 2855 13560 2984 3246 2712 9860 3103 2062 8493 2619 4430 2741 1195 6372 3890 2346 2908 12190 5581 21640 8400 9430 4868 39540 20820 1535 7833 3283 4417 26070 8558 6588 1255 1132 34500 3662 14230 1470 1350 6189 981 1199 2797 6593 7642 1859 2318 3738 17100 5382 13590 1321 3374 5852 2266 2975 5807 1015 5155 7729 2102 2818 7414 10370 2567 19020 4223 2997 16250 4467 5708 6568 4685 6220 8290 4269 14610 5162 2454 3324 2463 4617 1171 14240 2904 3825 2294 13010 2953 2575 3859 2387 623 878 14770 14940 3656 2095 11390 2494 2904 28300 6704 5900 7140 2133 1917 2145 3795 7809 741 2369 3369 2635 2117 2104 2398 4282 2274 4229 7168 5074 6050 8593 2804 3198 8443 4936 3353 1796 11740 8851 12140 2451 1887 12560 2220 5911 8278 5008 11300 2590 2130 1274 5021 2420 1892 1367 6488 2517 7695 4062 2159 612 12290 9735 2644 1803 2104 15450 11400 10950 9290 9516 3959 3190 2356 2966 1923 2631 2697 618 5188 2631 1884 2280 6112 18430 6556 2191 3422 11050 2784 3486 10570 2198 1424 2365 4000 3840 2483 6290
2020-12-23 918 1744 4445 2225 4395 5310 4874 1546 9640 11900 11840 2217 9210 3216 4669 4325 5100 10070 49230 3862 11040 5987 3102 16680 3101 8733 2753 32440 3902 2206 10260 3567 5473 17590 2150 10430 2925 3946 3903 5727 11180 9282 2473 5845 3389 5775 3169 3483 6402 7316 5101 1989 3422 10970 10850 3253 1690 1713 4537 3505 1255 1550 4636 1288 22420 10990 1558 2168 11540 3246 4043 4751 1683 9567 1449 14080 4018 4792 12930 11770 993 2240 2072 3348 4367 2109 11480 4780 3130 1920 2034 1267 3111 12610 5971 2146 3426 3140 1961 1825 4019 1344 2771 8586 4363 3173 1505 4807 2204 8523 3140 5346 1948 5732 2563 8497 2822 4085 8420 1484 4823 2908 2922 14070 3012 3342 2730 10110 3130 2083 8670 2655 4457 2784 1207 6579 3974 2365 2958 12260 5713 21720 8425 9710 4900 39710 20970 1577 8127 3310 4475 26160 8681 6824 1311 1141 34640 3699 14700 1483 1370 6363 999 1222 2856 6636 7905 1896 2339 3771 17160 5421 14070 1344 3395 5873 2308 3007 5847 1029 5198 7763 2115 2838 7496 10450 2612 19100 4257 3017 16310 4516 5751 6691 4720 6331 8341 4360 15100 5187 2473 3414 2482 4754 1178 14290 3068 3846 2388 13090 3006 2618 3886 2446 630 883 14830 15050 3687 2122 11430 2511 2997 28420 6742 6009 7199 2167 1963 2195 3831 7886 748 2392 3416 2660 2156 2149 2441 4309 2314 4254 7229 5138 6316 8883 2865 3274 8478 4980 3389 1832 11790 8901 12240 2480 1918 12620 2276 6098 8467 5058 11340 2608 2199 1288 5056 2465 1911 1383 6610 2582 8015 4221 2171 621 12650 9784 2729 1848 2132 15520 11480 11350 9590 9576 4000 3259 2394 3051 1949 2684 2771 627 5209 2672 1914 2329 6255 18500 6625 2220 3483 11100 2853 3567 10680 2213 1444 2386 4100 3864 2502 6319
2020-12-24 940 1756 4474 2273 4434 5528 4994 1579 9960 12220 11900 2224 9560 3253 4707 4352 5216 10320 49580 3892 11080 6015 3127 16740 3141 8797 2835 32570 4096 2235 10490 3712 5544 17660 2187 10800 2950 4084 3924 5776 11230 9323 2505 5981 3423 5952 3190 3608 6569 7353 5279 2010 3486 11050 10950 3276 1715 1743 4564 3572 1258 1564 4676 1306 22530 11080 1567 2208 11890 3319 4069 4892 1697 9639 1457 14150 4053 4939 13020 12000 1011 2265 2097 3413 4395 2130 11540 4826 3172 1963 2052 1287 3178 13030 6231 2195 3451 3159 1991 1853 4160 1364 2782 8608 4405 3219 1523 4940 2232 8800 3186 5366 1956 5878 2585 8787 2923 4102 8615 1511 4855 3102 2988 14650 3038 3441 2744 10360 3157 2103 8847 2690 4479 2831 1220 6792 4051 2385 3010 12320 5849 21810 8448 9980 4933 39860 21100 1612 8465 3335 4534 26260 8806 7062 1368 1148 34770 3726 15100 1497 1390 6543 1015 1246 2912 6675 8161 1927 2361 3805 17220 5458 14510 1368 3416 5896 2349 3040 5888 1048 5237 7796 2126 2856 7580 10520 2652 19190 4290 3038 16370 4564 5789 6777 4748 6441 8390 4451 15590 5212 2493 3485 2502 4889 1186 14350 3237 3867 2497 13160 3063 2658 3912 2526 637 890 14880 15140 3709 2145 11460 2524 3097 28530 6783 6121 7247 2202 2004 2237 3869 7947 755 2415 3456 2686 2189 2183 2480 4333 2355 4275 7291 5201 6591 9193 2925 3346 8513 5022 3423 1869 11830 8951 12340 2508 1939 12680 2328 6296 8663 5109 11370 2621 2267 1303 5091 2510 1931 1398 6705 2649 8353 4381 2180 628 13010 9824 2813 1892 2153 15570 11560 11740 9890 9634 4036 3333 2432 3134 1976 2738 2847 634 5233 2713 1936 2371 6394 18560 6688 2241 3545 11150 2926 3640 10780 2223 1465 2405 4184 3882 2522 6341
2020-12-25 961 1768 4506 2326 4465 5756 5116 1612 10310 12410 11950 2233 9870 3289 4748 4381 5329 10630 49900 3922 11140 6047 3158 16800 3182 8869 2918 32690 4197 2265 10720 3859 5602 17740 2225 11190 2971 4212 3948 5827 11280 9364 2538 6106 3452 6134 3216 3736 6741 7390 5461 2025 3555 11130 11040 3298 1738 1774 4599 3641 1259 1577 4720 1325 22650 11160 1577 2263 12240 3380 4094 5027 1714 9709 1464 14230 4091 5094 13120 12170 1030 2288 2126 3478 4425 2148 11590 4880 3219 2004 2069 1308 3247 13470 6502 2238 3467 3179 2022 1875 4308 1387 2795 8635 4443 3266 1541 5071 2264 9037 3225 5383 1965 6010 2606 9076 3037 4121 8820 1539 4891 3310 3037 15020 3063 3540 2761 10610 3186 2124 9030 2726 4500 2876 1232 7012 4136 2404 3059 12390 5985 21900 8472 10210 4959 40000 21210 1655 8652 3362 4594 26360 8931 7266 1428 1155 34900 3751 15550 1512 1410 6716 1029 1270 2972 6716 8453 1957 2384 3834 17270 5491 14880 1393 3434 5918 2392 3073 5926 1068 5276 7830 2139 2876 7665 10590 2692 19270 4318 3059 16420 4616 5830 6861 4774 6552 8435 4550 16100 5237 2509 3555 2521 4973 1194 14410 3417 3888 2607 13240 3114 2696 3934 2592 644 898 14940 15220 3738 2171 11490 2540 3170 28640 6822 6236 7299 2237 2044 2288 3903 8005 763 2439 3496 2712 2216 2218 2514 4359 2390 4298 7353 5266 6878 9431 2987 3423 8546 5065 3451 1904 11870 9003 12450 2526 1960 12740 2382 6474 8864 5154 11400 2638 2328 1315 5126 2556 1951 1416 6804 2718 8707 4548 2187 635 13370 9862 2903 1932 2178 15640 11630 12020 10230 9692 4076 3406 2471 3183 2004 2793 2889 643 5256 2754 1959 2414 6544 18630 6746 2263 3607 11210 2986 3710 10870 2239 1486 2424 4263 3902 2542 6362
2020-12-26 983 1777 4534 2376 4483 5998 5227 1646 10620 12620 12000 2240 10240 3314 4785 4403 5433 10910 50240 3952 11180 6076 3181 16840 3215 8937 3003 32810 4337 2293 10960 4015 5658 17810 2262 11580 2982 4346 3967 5877 11320 9406 2569 6240 3476 6322 3235 3879 6909 7427 5647 2037 3622 11200 11140 3316 1757 1805 4627 3710 1261 1589 4767 1344 22740 11240 1586 2279 12600 3437 4120 5164 1729 9769 1471 14280 4124 5253 13200 12340 1049 2306 2149 3545 4454 2163 11640 4932 3275 2035 2085 1326 3316 13920 6782 2278 3485 3198 2053 1893 4459 1402 2803 8662 4480 3314 1560 5202 2287 9288 3275 5403 1973 6142 2623 9304 3151 4137 8995 1568 4925 3530 3100 15460 3082 3641 2773 10850 3213 2140 9219 2761 4521 2911 1244 7239 4223 2424 3107 12450 6126 21970 8491 10490 4976 40110 21300 1690 8876 3384 4654 26440 9057 7469 1491 1164 35000 3776 15910 1526 1431 6897 1041 1294 3028 6755 8742 1989 2406 3855 17330 5522 15270 1418 3445 5938 2434 3107 5965 1081 5308 7859 2152 2893 7749 10660 2733 19350 4346 3080 16480 4663 5853 6933 4796 6652 8475 4646 16630 5262 2523 3622 2541 5064 1202 14450 3598 3909 2721 13310 3169 2735 3956 2633 650 901 14980 15280 3760 2196 11520 2552 3272 28740 6856 6343 7336 2273 2085 2334 3940 8062 770 2462 3536 2738 2237 2255 2545 4383 2422 4326 7416 5330 7174 9559 3050 3497 8573 5101 3477 1939 11910 9052 12530 2544 1976 12790 2441 6645 9026 5200 11420 2650 2393 1328 5152 2602 1971 1427 6894 2788 9087 4704 2192 642 13610 9900 2988 1971 2199 15690 11700 12390 10490 9748 4116 3479 2504 3227 2027 2850 2925 652 5282 2796 1982 2446 6672 18670 6793 2282 3667 11250 3025 3767 10950 2251 1507 2452 4358 3920 2560 6383

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.