COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-21 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-21

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-21

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-0310-27 --10-2112-07 -- -- -- --10-1310-04 -- --10-2610-24 -- --11-0411-0210-1810-1110-2710-1211-1410-31 --10-29 --10-15 -- -- --10-28 -- --12-02 --10-0409-2810-2511-03 -- --10-24 -- -- -- --10-13 --11-02 --10-2811-0210-19 -- --10-11 --10-30 -- -- --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- --11-03 -- --10-2511-0210-1411-01 --11-02 -- -- -- -- --11-0210-2911-0111-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3012-08 --11-02 -- -- -- --09-2710-25 --11-03 -- --10-26 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-02 -- -- --10-11 -- --12-08 -- -- --11-0212-0910-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- --11-0111-2909-29 -- -- --10-2609-2210-26 --11-03 -- -- --12-10 --11-02 -- --11-0209-2709-2611-0412-10 --10-1410-25 --10-2911-04 --11-0411-0311-0511-04 --11-03 --09-3011-0211-0210-25 --10-11 --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-2612-1010-13 --11-0110-1812-0810-11 --10-17 --12-0910-09 -- --11-0310-1911-0211-01 --09-3011-05 --09-2911-01 --11-02 -- -- --10-2610-31 -- -- --11-09 -- -- --10-13 --10-2511-03 -- -- -- -- --10-0911-0110-31 --10-1810-1211-01 -- --11-02 -- --12-07 --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-12 --10-12 -- -- --10-2911-02 -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- --11-0311-01 -- -- --10-1111-0310-06
Peak daily increment 26 82 62 242 191 28 77 72 625 63 163 99 55 235 49 136 441 50 321 69 57 70 159 141 51 131 27 128 145 53 62 23 293 144 20 53 165 29 249 57 252 108 31 226 77 55 75 41 129 55 24 71 32 44 65 75 43 52 59 252 285 153 360 152 85 542 255 60 100 529 14 610 61 29 31 91 36 55 392 85 450 51 159 49 109 91 122 35 58 131 609 68 40 257 64 82 102 94 43 89 41 19 197 159 64 198 53 67 17 237 231 85 183 36 435 113 95 66 141 83 70 76 89 117 82 57 183 125 194 160 201 177 46 90 47 10 138 261 162 135 91 320 137 138 37 65 41 130
Days since peak 48 55 61 14 69 78 56 58 47 49 64 71 55 70 37 51 53 67 54 19 78 84 57 48 58 69 49 54 49 63 71 52 79 49 50 48 57 49 68 50 49 49 53 50 49 71 85 71 52 13 49 85 57 48 56 48 54 49 71 13 49 12 55 83 75 85 50 50 22 83 56 90 56 48 11 49 49 85 86 47 11 68 57 53 47 47 48 46 47 48 82 49 49 57 71 48 69 48 56 11 69 50 64 13 71 65 12 73 48 63 49 50 82 46 83 50 49 56 51 42 69 57 48 73 50 51 64 70 50 49 14 64 53 48 57 39 70 53 49 62 77 61 78 48 50 71 48 76
Last total 904 1734 4374 2151 4360 4928 4717 1535 9083 11719 11795 2209 8557 3230 4594 4333 4991 9599 48999 3827 10982 5935 3053 16589 3008 8582 2660 32269 3728 2212 10070 3442 5417 17500 2141 9834 2945 3746 3878 5657 11100 9254 2455 5712 3369 5480 3169 3283 6249 7291 4932 1968 3395 10894 10715 3208 1670 1700 4466 3488 1268 1543 4635 1280 22306 10891 1545 2095 10942 3176 4045 4483 1702 9467 1464 13975 3965 4447 12878 11474 995 2199 2027 3379 4300 2110 11438 4693 3108 1907 2036 1256 3088 12056 5572 2064 3416 3127 1915 1790 3714 1337 2763 8605 4303 3115 1487 4600 2172 8166 3092 5309 1969 5525 2551 8075 2705 4056 8183 1457 4811 2516 2852 13222 3020 3270 2727 9905 3092 2066 8498 2631 4420 2766 1227 6234 3874 2368 2898 12197 5454 21617 8402 9409 4858 39568 20739 1532 7710 3279 4401 26071 8559 6335 1226 1128 34449 3646 13717 1465 1350 6121 969 1182 2765 6565 7665 1827 2308 3710 17067 5353 13282 1299 3370 5843 2294 2999 5764 1037 5157 7729 2108 2826 7429 10286 2573 18967 4229 3001 16201 4504 5715 6502 4688 6178 8268 4278 14315 5154 2453 3215 2479 4630 1177 14196 2735 3802 2146 12866 2940 2563 3876 2378 626 885 14762 14954 3609 2124 11409 2492 2902 28316 6693 5859 7204 2163 1933 2140 3791 7752 751 2370 3379 2612 2117 2095 2457 4278 2260 4243 7091 5074 5879 8534 2820 3244 8449 4917 3342 1851 11808 8874 12069 2462 1905 12547 2154 5830 8089 5041 11320 2596 2049 1276 5023 2489 1917 1377 6399 2556 7354 3900 2153 604 12282 9749 2577 1848 2134 15420 11450 10572 9150 9497 3968 3192 2337 2947 1927 2647 2697 639 5190 2621 1891 2275 6098 18415 6630 2185 3471 11096 2731 3495 10593 2205 1426 2403 3996 3839 2499 6344
Last daily increment 36 25 64 50 70 197 194 60 234 393 86 12 258 65 53 77 162 355 515 38 93 38 27 76 49 56 103 174 200 64 256 179 105 180 66 265 50 155 38 82 87 80 47 140 45 149 69 134 206 72 217 21 149 163 142 33 25 54 27 111 14 28 103 44 230 153 16 23 226 94 59 126 40 80 19 113 38 104 174 247 31 29 32 141 24 34 90 54 90 81 21 52 103 424 219 39 37 36 30 20 84 56 23 77 44 61 29 107 50 251 69 42 36 119 42 250 155 22 212 32 65 129 78 387 38 119 18 352 46 22 200 68 55 67 44 168 93 38 51 104 89 146 48 216 52 271 180 49 206 34 47 165 181 192 54 8 211 49 361 19 33 153 19 25 41 63 312 31 23 34 72 51 343 38 29 33 59 34 43 44 96 45 21 28 135 84 81 107 56 38 59 107 80 126 60 130 50 104 345 25 27 37 34 96 19 86 115 18 106 57 56 53 54 72 6 11 116 186 40 63 86 23 108 109 58 133 107 75 71 60 45 90 21 27 54 35 44 60 71 39 66 48 57 92 238 294 68 132 57 57 42 75 127 76 120 47 44 89 37 135 151 84 68 21 40 22 51 107 37 35 110 105 270 123 10 9 348 97 88 77 68 105 157 231 183 100 66 95 40 133 37 90 103 36 35 43 57 69 145 101 139 33 108 128 54 98 185 16 25 58 133 29 38 77
Last week 185 127 289 317 295 890 832 256 1827 2160 391 44 1726 336 249 255 748 2154 2802 189 379 184 153 377 216 559 515 775 973 233 1597 939 606 698 283 2093 214 780 186 363 344 285 246 1000 239 828 232 917 1154 312 1188 152 571 711 667 161 201 235 182 612 35 122 411 161 1030 737 63 269 2042 496 191 824 177 508 93 537 290 652 752 1548 139 176 232 594 163 164 421 293 388 329 173 185 558 2371 1450 308 164 177 212 172 657 186 109 313 287 289 134 785 184 1657 386 210 116 863 194 1656 649 117 1315 195 285 761 460 2678 278 695 116 1700 211 181 1365 254 184 326 160 1255 581 194 347 522 778 611 206 1831 230 1128 905 291 1532 209 293 778 951 1053 341 65 952 225 2375 74 150 1138 108 148 380 271 1811 217 153 222 329 256 2432 134 168 133 338 214 255 184 362 251 108 173 631 486 365 634 249 157 368 455 330 695 254 702 313 592 2839 143 168 444 162 796 61 384 764 123 535 441 363 286 236 394 40 61 448 855 197 254 346 115 593 775 257 698 437 286 339 321 238 444 66 167 311 161 260 275 321 193 257 221 324 534 1638 1781 458 637 272 290 226 347 446 374 658 203 191 438 301 1040 951 409 289 133 361 121 263 405 210 142 644 545 1839 732 85 57 2413 408 495 369 252 463 663 2100 1809 496 291 490 296 578 219 411 446 73 154 235 217 336 988 439 583 211 520 492 440 540 782 141 174 210 674 149 167 307
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 95 56 68 71 55 75 75 74 74 27
Low between peaks 9 27 1 25 7 14 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-22 to 2020-12-28

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-21 904 1734 4374 2151 4360 4928 4717 1535 9083 11719 11795 2209 8557 3230 4594 4333 4991 9599 48999 3827 10982 5935 3053 16589 3008 8582 2660 32269 3728 2212 10070 3442 5417 17500 2141 9834 2945 3746 3878 5657 11100 9254 2455 5712 3369 5480 3169 3283 6249 7291 4932 1968 3395 10894 10715 3208 1670 1700 4466 3488 1268 1543 4635 1280 22306 10891 1545 2095 10942 3176 4045 4483 1702 9467 1464 13975 3965 4447 12878 11474 995 2199 2027 3379 4300 2110 11438 4693 3108 1907 2036 1256 3088 12056 5572 2064 3416 3127 1915 1790 3714 1337 2763 8605 4303 3115 1487 4600 2172 8166 3092 5309 1969 5525 2551 8075 2705 4056 8183 1457 4811 2516 2852 13222 3020 3270 2727 9905 3092 2066 8498 2631 4420 2766 1227 6234 3874 2368 2898 12197 5454 21617 8402 9409 4858 39568 20739 1532 7710 3279 4401 26071 8559 6335 1226 1128 34449 3646 13717 1465 1350 6121 969 1182 2765 6565 7665 1827 2308 3710 17067 5353 13282 1299 3370 5843 2294 2999 5764 1037 5157 7729 2108 2826 7429 10286 2573 18967 4229 3001 16201 4504 5715 6502 4688 6178 8268 4278 14315 5154 2453 3215 2479 4630 1177 14196 2735 3802 2146 12866 2940 2563 3876 2378 626 885 14762 14954 3609 2124 11409 2492 2902 28316 6693 5859 7204 2163 1933 2140 3791 7752 751 2370 3379 2612 2117 2095 2457 4278 2260 4243 7091 5074 5879 8534 2820 3244 8449 4917 3342 1851 11808 8874 12069 2462 1905 12547 2154 5830 8089 5041 11320 2596 2049 1276 5023 2489 1917 1377 6399 2556 7354 3900 2153 604 12282 9749 2577 1848 2134 15420 11450 10572 9150 9497 3968 3192 2337 2947 1927 2647 2697 639 5190 2621 1891 2275 6098 18415 6630 2185 3471 11096 2731 3495 10593 2205 1426 2403 3996 3839 2499 6344
2020-12-22 954 1762 4415 2246 4399 5172 4971 1559 9080 12270 11850 2219 8557 3232 4637 4392 5205 10230 49590 3856 11010 5965 3077 16650 3064 8669 2795 32420 4180 2238 10490 3642 5570 17520 2156 10050 2968 3902 3878 5726 11160 9302 2525 5931 3376 5607 3226 3581 6525 7335 5288 1987 3496 10990 10810 3231 1700 1743 4498 3580 1272 1563 4780 1280 22510 11060 1555 2154 11320 3303 4066 4528 1736 9541 1475 14070 4011 4617 12910 11980 1021 2229 2073 3503 4329 2131 11510 4743 3211 2024 2060 1292 3212 12570 5840 2071 3420 3150 1936 1800 3881 1372 2776 8671 4368 3168 1506 4726 2217 8540 3135 5309 1996 5661 2576 8500 2769 4076 8427 1497 4852 2680 2986 13550 3072 3434 2734 10250 3120 2084 8780 2684 4449 2833 1243 6453 3999 2407 2934 12250 5573 21740 8440 9630 4891 39650 20830 1596 8031 3307 4455 26160 8680 6627 1289 1136 34530 3679 14300 1479 1383 6284 990 1207 2765 6608 7990 1895 2316 3735 17120 5383 13590 1325 3398 5881 2366 3036 5807 1079 5205 7770 2122 2849 7538 10360 2649 19060 4266 3025 16260 4603 5715 6502 4748 6340 8298 4401 14510 5179 2474 3302 2501 4721 1184 14260 2927 3823 2420 12980 3003 2604 3916 2480 633 901 14830 14970 3641 2177 11480 2509 3020 28420 6735 5986 7292 2238 2035 2215 3845 7821 768 2395 3422 2637 2176 2179 2505 4306 2309 4249 7148 5215 6213 8850 2915 3371 8449 4954 3375 1923 11810 8930 12220 2512 1935 12580 2154 5920 8250 5127 11320 2597 2049 1312 5060 2570 1959 1399 6505 2660 7664 4089 2163 612 12980 9810 2710 1986 2167 15510 11550 10570 9540 9580 4040 3294 2390 3035 1963 2756 2864 663 5216 2660 1950 2374 6267 18510 6728 2227 3579 11160 2783 3600 10620 2218 1461 2445 4175 3861 2521 6392
2020-12-23 995 1788 4454 2317 4434 5359 5185 1585 9240 12810 11910 2228 8746 3274 4678 4446 5343 10800 50180 3885 11060 5994 3101 16710 3113 8774 2913 32540 4494 2268 10840 3841 5695 17630 2210 10270 2990 4057 3906 5801 11200 9346 2590 6154 3419 5738 3267 3843 6776 7376 5569 2005 3597 11120 10910 3253 1728 1784 4530 3671 1275 1581 4908 1294 22710 11210 1565 2191 11650 3412 4096 4662 1768 9613 1485 14150 4053 4789 13020 12370 1045 2258 2125 3623 4358 2151 11570 4791 3306 2104 2081 1320 3331 13080 6118 2098 3441 3171 1957 1811 4052 1404 2789 8731 4413 3219 1524 4852 2259 8910 3177 5346 2019 5797 2599 8890 2840 4095 8634 1535 4890 2849 3083 14070 3128 3597 2755 10600 3147 2109 9060 2734 4477 2888 1258 6673 4124 2444 2970 12330 5692 21850 8486 9880 4922 39840 20980 1659 8307 3334 4507 26290 8795 6863 1352 1144 34690 3709 14780 1492 1414 6446 1009 1231 2789 6650 8315 1956 2324 3772 17180 5429 13960 1350 3426 5915 2436 3072 5849 1123 5250 7809 2136 2871 7640 10450 2733 19140 4301 3048 16320 4698 5764 6594 4815 6499 8357 4509 14690 5203 2494 3383 2522 4838 1191 14320 3078 3843 2579 13060 3065 2642 3955 2556 640 914 14920 15100 3672 2228 11560 2525 3139 28550 6775 6109 7399 2306 2120 2290 3896 7887 783 2420 3483 2662 2240 2252 2567 4332 2357 4278 7206 5345 6547 9160 3011 3492 8489 5000 3407 1993 11870 8983 12330 2556 1983 12660 2180 6011 8407 5208 11360 2620 2076 1335 5096 2646 1999 1420 6609 2761 7916 4237 2172 619 13470 9880 2839 2080 2214 15580 11630 10820 9870 9660 4096 3385 2439 3176 1999 2855 2985 683 5241 2697 2008 2452 6436 18580 6822 2270 3683 11240 2864 3704 10750 2231 1495 2483 4337 3882 2542 6438
2020-12-24 1043 1813 4493 2389 4471 5542 5375 1613 9410 13330 11960 2237 8827 3322 4719 4500 5518 11350 50760 3914 11110 6023 3124 16760 3146 8856 3044 32680 4827 2300 11200 4045 5817 17730 2251 10510 3013 4217 3931 5864 11250 9391 2638 6386 3462 5869 3311 4067 7024 7418 5850 2023 3698 11230 11000 3275 1757 1825 4561 3766 1278 1600 5035 1300 22900 11370 1575 2234 11990 3528 4119 4811 1800 9684 1495 14230 4106 4964 13160 12780 1070 2287 2165 3746 4387 2172 11640 4839 3389 2186 2099 1357 3453 13620 6408 2138 3468 3193 1979 1823 4234 1437 2802 8792 4463 3271 1542 4982 2300 9280 3220 5376 2043 5932 2621 9250 2915 4114 8887 1575 4927 3026 3168 14570 3185 3769 2768 10960 3173 2129 9340 2783 4503 2950 1274 6894 4253 2481 3009 12400 5811 21970 8528 10170 4953 40000 21130 1725 8582 3361 4560 26410 8912 7090 1419 1152 34830 3740 15240 1506 1446 6614 1029 1256 2816 6691 8639 2015 2333 3814 17230 5471 14290 1376 3452 5949 2508 3108 5888 1163 5295 7849 2150 2892 7740 10530 2813 19230 4336 3070 16370 4795 5812 6663 4872 6662 8416 4610 14880 5228 2514 3448 2542 4951 1197 14380 3202 3864 2756 13130 3127 2681 3993 2641 646 926 15010 15230 3702 2279 11620 2542 3264 28660 6815 6231 7495 2372 2199 2367 3947 7953 798 2445 3535 2687 2312 2306 2624 4359 2404 4309 7261 5474 6897 9480 3095 3612 8528 5045 3439 2066 11920 9037 12430 2591 2017 12710 2204 6103 8562 5290 11410 2639 2104 1355 5132 2720 2041 1442 6712 2864 8223 4382 2181 627 14030 9950 2964 2176 2247 15640 11720 11090 10240 9760 4149 3489 2486 3337 2036 2957 3130 704 5265 2735 2052 2528 6603 18640 6917 2299 3788 11330 2953 3809 10870 2244 1529 2521 4492 3903 2563 6483
2020-12-25 1088 1837 4529 2444 4505 5716 5563 1640 9640 13730 12020 2246 8827 3366 4760 4551 5690 11870 51260 3943 11180 6051 3147 16820 3181 8941 3164 32820 5019 2331 11550 4251 5903 17820 2296 10740 3035 4379 3964 5917 11290 9434 2691 6623 3494 6001 3360 4299 7290 7458 6159 2040 3802 11350 11100 3297 1784 1864 4592 3861 1281 1617 5159 1322 23090 11520 1584 2291 12350 3610 4142 4910 1832 9754 1505 14320 4155 5146 13270 13130 1093 2315 2219 3868 4415 2191 11700 4886 3478 2260 2120 1392 3573 14170 6710 2175 3488 3213 2001 1834 4421 1469 2814 8849 4503 3322 1560 5114 2341 9650 3261 5401 2066 6068 2642 9640 2993 4132 9117 1614 4962 3212 3250 14780 3237 3944 2787 11300 3198 2155 9630 2832 4528 3008 1289 7116 4384 2517 3046 12490 5929 22080 8573 10440 4982 40150 21250 1792 8850 3387 4611 26540 9026 7269 1487 1160 34980 3770 15690 1519 1478 6782 1048 1280 2843 6730 8967 2081 2342 3853 17290 5504 14650 1402 3479 5983 2580 3143 5931 1217 5337 7887 2164 2913 7836 10600 2915 19310 4370 3092 16430 4890 5864 6716 4923 6825 8461 4708 15060 5252 2533 3516 2562 5062 1204 14430 3362 3884 2936 13210 3188 2718 4030 2717 653 939 15100 15350 3732 2329 11700 2557 3392 28780 6853 6351 7588 2434 2273 2444 3996 8017 812 2469 3580 2711 2366 2366 2678 4385 2452 4335 7317 5602 7260 9850 3214 3728 8566 5086 3470 2139 11970 9089 12550 2626 2053 12780 2225 6195 8716 5370 11440 2659 2128 1371 5166 2792 2082 1464 6815 2965 8522 4534 2190 635 14530 10010 3100 2288 2294 15710 11800 11310 10640 9840 4189 3588 2533 3452 2072 3058 3185 724 5289 2771 2092 2603 6771 18700 7010 2330 3892 11410 3035 3914 10990 2257 1563 2556 4644 3923 2582 6527
2020-12-26 1127 1861 4566 2464 4539 5872 5726 1668 9880 14140 12070 2255 8972 3395 4800 4603 5835 12250 51760 3972 11210 6080 3170 16870 3200 9006 3273 32920 5289 2363 11900 4464 5961 17900 2329 10990 3056 4544 3983 5966 11340 9477 2723 6869 3512 6137 3396 4533 7525 7498 6426 2058 3892 11440 11200 3319 1811 1903 4623 3958 1285 1635 5287 1330 23270 11660 1593 2314 12640 3689 4160 4982 1865 9824 1514 14380 4193 5334 13370 13410 1117 2343 2272 3995 4444 2210 11770 4933 3534 2321 2136 1414 3698 14750 7027 2222 3510 3233 2023 1845 4617 1501 2826 8906 4537 3375 1578 5250 2383 10040 3303 5430 2088 6205 2664 9900 3074 4151 9283 1655 4997 3410 3304 15190 3294 4127 2801 11650 3224 2167 9920 2881 4554 3035 1304 7342 4519 2555 3083 12560 6049 22190 8605 10660 5011 40250 21370 1861 9098 3413 4663 26630 9140 7439 1558 1168 35070 3800 15940 1532 1511 6956 1067 1305 2866 6770 9300 2150 2351 3875 17340 5533 14940 1428 3505 6016 2654 3178 5968 1246 5380 7925 2178 2935 7931 10660 2976 19400 4404 3114 16490 4988 5896 6780 4959 6992 8496 4781 15230 5276 2551 3565 2582 5126 1210 14480 3499 3904 3138 13270 3250 2756 4068 2786 659 951 15180 15450 3762 2381 11760 2573 3524 28880 6892 6472 7660 2496 2339 2524 4045 8081 827 2494 3625 2736 2418 2420 2727 4411 2500 4371 7373 5733 7643 10120 3214 3846 8603 5121 3501 2215 12020 9141 12620 2652 2072 12830 2258 6287 8871 5451 11470 2673 2156 1391 5201 2865 2124 1486 6918 3069 8778 4674 2199 642 15050 10060 3235 2398 2318 15770 11890 11430 10930 9900 4212 3673 2579 3564 2109 3162 3227 744 5313 2808 2135 2656 6941 18760 7105 2355 3999 11500 3089 4022 11080 2270 1597 2591 4776 3943 2601 6571
2020-12-27 1174 1885 4604 2521 4574 6026 5880 1695 10040 14600 12130 2264 9041 3452 4841 4654 5971 12640 52340 4001 11270 6108 3194 16910 3213 9098 3392 33010 5541 2396 12210 4686 6037 17990 2375 11230 3078 4715 4010 6021 11380 9520 2776 7125 3551 6277 3437 4732 7733 7538 6707 2075 3975 11540 11290 3340 1838 1943 4654 4057 1288 1653 5418 1344 23460 11810 1603 2359 12920 3765 4185 5053 1897 9894 1524 14460 4244 5530 13470 13700 1141 2371 2306 4125 4473 2230 11830 4980 3614 2405 2139 1438 3828 15340 7359 2252 3534 3253 2045 1857 4821 1533 2838 8964 4579 3428 1596 5390 2425 10430 3345 5454 2110 6343 2685 10200 3157 4170 9479 1696 5032 3619 3393 15620 3344 4318 2820 12010 3249 2189 10230 2930 4579 3078 1320 7572 4657 2592 3122 12620 6170 22300 8643 10900 5041 40410 21490 1933 9340 3439 4715 26740 9256 7647 1631 1176 35200 3830 16300 1546 1544 7134 1087 1330 2898 6810 9640 2207 2360 3902 17400 5565 15250 1455 3532 6049 2730 3213 5997 1285 5423 7963 2191 2956 8024 10730 3038 19480 4437 3135 16540 5087 5937 6832 5014 7164 8534 4889 15410 5300 2570 3627 2602 5210 1216 14540 3625 3924 3300 13340 3313 2793 4105 2837 666 963 15260 15570 3792 2433 11830 2589 3662 29020 6930 6594 7755 2559 2423 2607 4094 8146 842 2520 3681 2760 2479 2466 2791 4438 2550 4407 7429 5867 8046 10390 3319 3966 8639 5163 3533 2293 12090 9194 12710 2691 2110 12890 2270 6382 9028 5534 11510 2692 2186 1409 5235 2938 2166 1508 7021 3175 9041 4811 2208 650 15410 10130 3352 2426 2351 15820 11970 11560 11230 9980 4253 3775 2625 3684 2147 3270 3326 764 5337 2845 2175 2716 7114 18820 7200 2386 4108 11570 3157 4133 11180 2282 1632 2627 4923 3964 2621 6615
2020-12-28 1213 1909 4641 2590 4608 6223 6051 1723 10290 15040 12180 2273 9383 3505 4881 4706 6142 13000 52770 4030 11350 6137 3217 16980 3267 9165 3506 33170 5763 2428 12490 4918 6110 18130 2447 11490 3100 4890 4042 6093 11470 9563 2822 7392 3592 6420 3495 4883 7977 7578 7006 2093 4085 11680 11390 3362 1865 1982 4685 4159 1291 1671 5553 1391 23640 11960 1612 2380 13220 3841 4235 5180 1931 9964 1533 14580 4284 5733 13610 13970 1166 2399 2343 4261 4501 2249 11900 5028 3700 2485 2153 1477 3962 15970 7709 2295 3566 3273 2068 1868 5035 1565 2850 9022 4632 3482 1614 5534 2469 10830 3387 5489 2133 6484 2707 10430 3243 4189 9687 1739 5067 3842 3471 16140 3378 4518 2837 12380 3274 2209 10540 2979 4605 3137 1336 7805 4800 2630 3160 12720 6292 22420 8680 11150 5070 40650 21660 2008 9579 3466 4767 26890 9372 7891 1707 1184 35390 3860 16790 1559 1578 7316 1106 1355 2946 6849 9987 2230 2369 3939 17450 5614 15620 1483 3559 6083 2809 3248 6046 1317 5467 8001 2205 2977 8117 10810 3100 19560 4472 3157 16600 5189 6001 6960 5058 7340 8579 5012 15590 5324 2589 3679 2621 5322 1223 14620 3775 3944 3429 13410 3376 2831 4143 2892 672 976 15340 15720 3823 2487 11900 2605 3805 29130 6969 6717 7832 2622 2479 2693 4143 8211 856 2546 3738 2785 2514 2523 2858 4465 2600 4446 7486 6004 8472 10700 3387 4088 8684 5215 3564 2375 12190 9246 12840 2736 2150 12970 2310 6478 9186 5618 11570 2711 2235 1427 5270 3012 2210 1531 7126 3284 9359 4948 2216 657 15780 10200 3447 2463 2408 15920 12060 11870 11470 10070 4312 3877 2671 3836 2186 3381 3448 784 5361 2883 2223 2773 7289 18910 7297 2412 4221 11670 3209 4247 11340 2295 1668 2662 5051 3984 2640 6659

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-22 to 2020-12-28

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-21 904 1734 4374 2151 4360 4928 4717 1535 9083 11719 11795 2209 8557 3230 4594 4333 4991 9599 48999 3827 10982 5935 3053 16589 3008 8582 2660 32269 3728 2212 10070 3442 5417 17500 2141 9834 2945 3746 3878 5657 11100 9254 2455 5712 3369 5480 3169 3283 6249 7291 4932 1968 3395 10894 10715 3208 1670 1700 4466 3488 1268 1543 4635 1280 22306 10891 1545 2095 10942 3176 4045 4483 1702 9467 1464 13975 3965 4447 12878 11474 995 2199 2027 3379 4300 2110 11438 4693 3108 1907 2036 1256 3088 12056 5572 2064 3416 3127 1915 1790 3714 1337 2763 8605 4303 3115 1487 4600 2172 8166 3092 5309 1969 5525 2551 8075 2705 4056 8183 1457 4811 2516 2852 13222 3020 3270 2727 9905 3092 2066 8498 2631 4420 2766 1227 6234 3874 2368 2898 12197 5454 21617 8402 9409 4858 39568 20739 1532 7710 3279 4401 26071 8559 6335 1226 1128 34449 3646 13717 1465 1350 6121 969 1182 2765 6565 7665 1827 2308 3710 17067 5353 13282 1299 3370 5843 2294 2999 5764 1037 5157 7729 2108 2826 7429 10286 2573 18967 4229 3001 16201 4504 5715 6502 4688 6178 8268 4278 14315 5154 2453 3215 2479 4630 1177 14196 2735 3802 2146 12866 2940 2563 3876 2378 626 885 14762 14954 3609 2124 11409 2492 2902 28316 6693 5859 7204 2163 1933 2140 3791 7752 751 2370 3379 2612 2117 2095 2457 4278 2260 4243 7091 5074 5879 8534 2820 3244 8449 4917 3342 1851 11808 8874 12069 2462 1905 12547 2154 5830 8089 5041 11320 2596 2049 1276 5023 2489 1917 1377 6399 2556 7354 3900 2153 604 12282 9749 2577 1848 2134 15420 11450 10572 9150 9497 3968 3192 2337 2947 1927 2647 2697 639 5190 2621 1891 2275 6098 18415 6630 2185 3471 11096 2731 3495 10593 2205 1426 2403 3996 3839 2499 6344
2020-12-22 937 1755 4430 2215 4404 5098 4893 1575 9330 12130 11860 2218 8840 3277 4642 4382 5143 10010 49500 3859 11040 5968 3075 16650 3046 8665 2755 32390 3961 2254 10340 3629 5516 17630 2187 10160 2981 3890 3907 5726 11160 9306 2503 5854 3409 5627 3216 3456 6447 7342 5161 1994 3491 11020 10830 3237 1700 1743 4505 3587 1274 1565 4716 1301 22480 11020 1556 2163 11260 3255 4080 4604 1732 9552 1476 14080 4010 4567 13010 11780 1021 2232 2065 3485 4325 2136 11510 4744 3183 1988 2067 1294 3186 12480 5849 2118 3441 3154 1949 1820 3820 1374 2778 8670 4344 3164 1510 4727 2207 8450 3147 5340 1992 5655 2583 8370 2815 4077 8426 1492 4857 2657 2950 13590 3066 3393 2746 10190 3127 2093 8710 2678 4455 2820 1250 6424 3967 2402 2953 12290 5573 21730 8437 9730 4905 39750 20900 1583 7991 3313 4457 26190 8710 6543 1292 1138 34620 3685 14230 1478 1377 6289 986 1206 2816 6613 7965 1860 2331 3750 17130 5399 13640 1323 3401 5869 2352 3035 5805 1073 5229 7773 2125 2854 7536 10380 2633 19060 4273 3028 16270 4583 5774 6616 4735 6311 8320 4382 14720 5177 2478 3307 2506 4740 1188 14270 2877 3822 2282 12960 2998 2610 3914 2447 632 896 14860 15120 3642 2172 11480 2515 3017 28450 6740 5990 7294 2219 2000 2208 3829 7839 764 2395 3428 2639 2170 2155 2510 4312 2312 4283 7146 5177 6138 8840 2911 3361 8494 4975 3383 1910 11890 8939 12200 2496 1938 12610 2196 5999 8271 5114 11370 2615 2109 1302 5069 2562 1951 1401 6531 2656 7710 4023 2163 612 12700 9820 2661 1922 2180 15510 11570 10930 9400 9573 4021 3281 2383 3054 1962 2719 2801 658 5218 2662 1933 2337 6264 18480 6739 2223 3562 11170 2800 3592 10730 2225 1455 2437 4118 3869 2525 6397
2020-12-23 963 1771 4474 2273 4443 5262 5052 1611 9630 12570 11920 2225 9200 3318 4683 4416 5266 10400 49940 3889 11090 5999 3100 16700 3089 8757 2850 32500 4185 2288 10610 3811 5609 17740 2232 10510 3008 4068 3933 5787 11210 9348 2543 6014 3447 5787 3244 3648 6646 7383 5366 2013 3571 11130 10930 3260 1728 1781 4533 3676 1276 1582 4784 1322 22630 11130 1566 2208 11640 3338 4108 4758 1754 9632 1486 14160 4051 4715 13110 12070 1044 2260 2107 3577 4353 2151 11570 4796 3252 2037 2094 1319 3273 12950 6140 2165 3461 3175 1981 1850 3954 1401 2791 8710 4383 3211 1529 4861 2236 8800 3205 5371 2005 5797 2606 8690 2927 4096 8609 1526 4896 2827 3036 14170 3107 3516 2765 10460 3155 2117 8940 2720 4482 2870 1264 6634 4061 2427 3007 12360 5717 21820 8466 10060 4941 39930 21060 1639 8297 3342 4516 26300 8850 6776 1359 1147 34760 3720 14720 1491 1400 6483 1006 1234 2875 6657 8266 1896 2356 3785 17180 5439 14120 1347 3428 5890 2406 3069 5847 1097 5277 7809 2139 2876 7630 10450 2685 19140 4308 3049 16330 4648 5820 6740 4775 6434 8372 4484 15190 5201 2500 3404 2528 4869 1195 14330 3045 3843 2389 13040 3056 2651 3946 2514 639 902 14920 15240 3671 2207 11520 2532 3140 28570 6781 6106 7362 2258 2057 2271 3867 7914 772 2425 3483 2665 2212 2210 2563 4340 2356 4310 7206 5269 6443 9140 2987 3462 8532 5021 3419 1961 11950 8997 12300 2532 1973 12680 2252 6188 8447 5183 11410 2634 2175 1321 5108 2618 1979 1420 6651 2749 8090 4157 2175 622 13130 9880 2746 1987 2217 15570 11660 11350 9680 9638 4069 3361 2430 3159 1993 2781 2899 669 5240 2703 1971 2390 6419 18550 6824 2257 3638 11230 2870 3679 10840 2245 1480 2464 4235 3893 2547 6436
2020-12-24 991 1786 4515 2335 4489 5429 5197 1648 9960 12970 11970 2231 9550 3362 4721 4451 5401 10790 50370 3918 11140 6028 3126 16760 3126 8836 2950 32620 4445 2323 10880 3998 5700 17830 2275 10860 3037 4248 3958 5843 11260 9389 2579 6179 3486 5950 3273 3817 6846 7424 5576 2037 3654 11230 11030 3284 1757 1818 4561 3768 1279 1599 4846 1338 22770 11230 1575 2257 12020 3422 4134 4917 1776 9709 1496 14230 4097 4859 13210 12370 1067 2288 2137 3669 4379 2177 11630 4847 3313 2091 2118 1350 3360 13460 6472 2216 3488 3197 2012 1881 4092 1426 2803 8745 4427 3259 1548 5007 2266 9140 3258 5397 2019 5944 2632 8990 3036 4112 8859 1559 4933 3007 3114 14740 3150 3641 2780 10730 3184 2139 9170 2762 4509 2923 1280 6849 4158 2453 3062 12430 5863 21900 8493 10440 4978 40080 21210 1688 8601 3370 4574 26410 8991 7008 1432 1156 34900 3754 15190 1504 1424 6680 1023 1262 2934 6697 8573 1931 2380 3826 17240 5477 14580 1371 3456 5911 2460 3102 5889 1123 5326 7843 2153 2899 7723 10530 2735 19230 4344 3071 16390 4714 5865 6841 4811 6551 8426 4587 15670 5226 2521 3487 2550 5001 1203 14380 3215 3864 2514 13120 3116 2693 3977 2599 645 913 14980 15360 3694 2240 11570 2548 3269 28690 6824 6218 7425 2296 2113 2331 3905 7982 780 2449 3531 2692 2262 2252 2610 4366 2397 4338 7265 5364 6746 9460 3059 3567 8569 5066 3456 2015 12000 9054 12410 2562 1999 12740 2314 6387 8628 5245 11450 2651 2240 1339 5146 2679 2006 1441 6763 2842 8550 4294 2185 630 13610 9930 2833 2050 2247 15630 11740 11800 10000 9714 4114 3446 2476 3282 2027 2845 3013 680 5263 2744 1998 2444 6578 18600 6909 2285 3714 11310 2951 3777 10960 2262 1506 2492 4350 3913 2569 6473
2020-12-25 1019 1802 4556 2393 4530 5600 5351 1686 10340 13300 12030 2238 9880 3413 4761 4488 5539 11210 50770 3948 11200 6059 3156 16820 3163 8922 3044 32740 4614 2360 11150 4196 5778 17920 2317 11240 3064 4396 3988 5892 11310 9431 2617 6348 3521 6116 3303 3999 7051 7464 5810 2056 3748 11330 11130 3309 1788 1856 4594 3860 1282 1615 4902 1363 22910 11340 1584 2328 12430 3503 4160 5072 1797 9783 1505 14320 4144 5009 13320 12660 1090 2315 2178 3766 4407 2197 11690 4900 3382 2141 2147 1379 3447 13970 6781 2266 3508 3218 2043 1914 4235 1453 2819 8781 4466 3307 1567 5152 2299 9440 3311 5421 2032 6089 2657 9320 3157 4131 9094 1595 4972 3197 3182 15100 3192 3768 2798 11010 3212 2165 9410 2803 4535 2975 1295 7069 4262 2481 3115 12520 6013 22010 8523 10800 5007 40220 21330 1746 8898 3401 4633 26520 9132 7201 1513 1166 35040 3786 15690 1517 1447 6879 1039 1291 2999 6739 8888 1971 2405 3865 17300 5513 15060 1396 3482 5933 2515 3136 5932 1160 5374 7878 2166 2921 7818 10610 2792 19310 4378 3092 16450 4784 5916 6942 4847 6671 8473 4691 16180 5251 2542 3575 2572 5151 1211 14440 3400 3885 2636 13200 3176 2733 4007 2673 651 923 15060 15470 3723 2274 11620 2567 3370 28810 6864 6331 7490 2333 2170 2408 3941 8048 787 2475 3576 2718 2299 2301 2653 4395 2438 4365 7325 5456 7091 9810 3145 3672 8607 5110 3490 2067 12050 9110 12520 2588 2027 12800 2371 6600 8815 5309 11480 2671 2313 1355 5186 2747 2033 1461 6877 2933 9010 4437 2196 639 14050 9980 2924 2115 2286 15700 11830 12250 10330 9783 4155 3529 2524 3359 2063 2910 3071 691 5285 2786 2025 2504 6751 18660 6993 2312 3790 11370 3026 3878 11070 2291 1532 2517 4469 3934 2591 6510
2020-12-26 1046 1815 4592 2438 4552 5773 5480 1725 10640 13630 12090 2245 10280 3446 4798 4515 5668 11530 51150 3977 11240 6087 3178 16860 3194 8992 3123 32840 4822 2393 11430 4382 5844 18000 2358 11630 3079 4559 4009 5941 11360 9472 2650 6485 3547 6286 3325 4171 7258 7504 5991 2072 3824 11410 11230 3330 1812 1894 4622 3955 1284 1630 4957 1380 23020 11450 1594 2351 12820 3573 4185 5223 1818 9844 1515 14380 4182 5163 13400 12880 1114 2338 2212 3834 4433 2212 11750 4952 3434 2174 2166 1404 3536 14500 7089 2308 3529 3239 2072 1932 4383 1472 2828 8816 4502 3356 1587 5284 2324 9750 3365 5444 2045 6220 2677 9600 3275 4147 9261 1629 5010 3401 3250 15600 3232 3895 2813 11280 3241 2184 9660 2846 4557 3012 1310 7294 4358 2505 3167 12580 6165 22070 8546 11040 5024 40340 21430 1790 9180 3426 4693 26600 9277 7374 1588 1175 35150 3816 16000 1531 1471 7078 1051 1320 3053 6777 9213 2005 2430 3882 17350 5544 15400 1421 3500 5952 2571 3170 5973 1179 5413 7908 2179 2940 7907 10670 2840 19390 4408 3114 16500 4847 5942 7025 4876 6783 8514 4794 16690 5276 2560 3634 2595 5279 1219 14490 3588 3906 2748 13270 3237 2769 4033 2745 657 928 15110 15540 3743 2307 11650 2581 3500 28920 6901 6432 7535 2367 2225 2452 3980 8105 795 2494 3619 2745 2328 2342 2695 4418 2472 4394 7386 5545 7403 10100 3195 3769 8642 5149 3517 2119 12090 9158 12600 2612 2048 12860 2424 6779 8963 5359 11510 2684 2377 1372 5214 2794 2060 1478 6957 3026 9450 4573 2202 645 14420 10030 3016 2167 2310 15760 11910 12540 10540 9841 4186 3610 2566 3444 2091 2976 3121 702 5309 2828 2053 2550 6907 18700 7052 2335 3863 11430 3068 3941 11150 2306 1557 2549 4582 3953 2612 6542
2020-12-27 1074 1829 4626 2483 4584 5951 5609 1765 10880 13950 12140 2251 10680 3488 4837 4542 5796 11870 51590 4008 11290 6114 3199 16920 3223 9070 3218 32950 5007 2428 11690 4597 5902 18070 2402 11990 3094 4750 4031 5992 11410 9514 2687 6639 3578 6462 3352 4325 7462 7543 6181 2088 3893 11500 11330 3350 1837 1933 4648 4051 1287 1644 5013 1396 23150 11550 1603 2387 13220 3644 4212 5375 1840 9916 1524 14450 4225 5323 13490 13120 1138 2367 2236 3917 4460 2235 11800 5006 3491 2219 2184 1431 3628 15030 7462 2342 3548 3260 2104 1953 4537 1500 2839 8849 4543 3406 1607 5418 2348 10100 3411 5462 2058 6371 2696 9890 3404 4166 9445 1660 5049 3620 3318 16080 3263 4029 2829 11570 3269 2205 9890 2889 4580 3058 1325 7527 4445 2527 3224 12630 6322 22150 8567 11300 5040 40480 21530 1835 9464 3450 4754 26700 9408 7620 1667 1181 35260 3847 16400 1544 1496 7274 1069 1350 3112 6816 9550 2035 2455 3901 17410 5576 15810 1446 3523 5974 2628 3205 6010 1194 5447 7940 2193 2962 7995 10740 2888 19470 4438 3136 16560 4908 5970 7095 4905 6900 8553 4904 17230 5301 2579 3716 2617 5364 1228 14540 3784 3927 2877 13330 3299 2809 4062 2791 665 934 15160 15620 3769 2337 11690 2596 3629 29030 6941 6543 7594 2405 2285 2497 4019 8166 803 2516 3664 2772 2353 2382 2740 4444 2514 4421 7447 5611 7753 10320 3256 3868 8666 5190 3543 2168 12130 9212 12670 2641 2075 12920 2463 6942 9108 5416 11530 2697 2441 1387 5245 2853 2087 1497 7049 3115 9770 4701 2208 652 14770 10080 3109 2223 2337 15810 11980 12840 10810 9910 4222 3697 2612 3520 2120 3044 3194 713 5329 2871 2077 2592 7059 18770 7119 2360 3942 11480 3117 4014 11230 2317 1582 2574 4695 3974 2634 6578
2020-12-28 1101 1844 4670 2548 4628 6141 5772 1805 11200 14360 12190 2258 11160 3525 4880 4576 5945 12220 52000 4038 11360 6145 3232 16980 3277 9159 3319 33080 5261 2467 11980 4830 5967 18170 2453 12390 3124 4968 4056 6049 11480 9556 2725 6813 3614 6642 3385 4501 7681 7585 6431 2107 3978 11600 11430 3374 1865 1973 4684 4151 1291 1659 5076 1419 23300 11660 1613 2415 13650 3730 4244 5551 1862 9999 1534 14560 4274 5502 13590 13420 1163 2403 2263 4015 4489 2258 11870 5060 3557 2274 2205 1462 3724 15590 7878 2383 3574 3282 2138 1986 4697 1537 2852 8885 4594 3456 1627 5561 2385 10480 3470 5485 2071 6535 2715 10220 3546 4188 9680 1698 5090 3854 3395 16680 3298 4172 2846 11880 3298 2226 10130 2932 4613 3113 1340 7765 4551 2551 3284 12710 6482 22260 8592 11640 5067 40660 21700 1887 9788 3481 4815 26820 9548 7907 1755 1191 35410 3884 16960 1557 1520 7490 1087 1381 3179 6860 9898 2061 2480 3944 17470 5617 16370 1472 3553 6000 2686 3240 6057 1212 5489 7977 2207 2983 8091 10820 2933 19560 4475 3157 16620 4973 6013 7214 4940 7026 8598 5018 17780 5327 2601 3806 2640 5480 1236 14620 4002 3948 3053 13440 3362 2848 4094 2860 672 940 15220 15720 3804 2370 11720 2614 3776 29150 6986 6653 7651 2447 2338 2559 4060 8237 811 2548 3723 2799 2380 2431 2785 4471 2561 4449 7509 5676 8161 10580 3314 3979 8696 5237 3581 2226 12190 9271 12810 2681 2103 12980 2532 7142 9308 5471 11570 2714 2521 1405 5287 2922 2114 1518 7178 3213 10360 4870 2216 660 15240 10140 3202 2282 2381 15900 12080 13350 11110 9987 4289 3788 2661 3607 2155 3114 3312 724 5355 2914 2110 2643 7229 18850 7192 2390 4024 11560 3180 4112 11350 2334 1610 2607 4816 3995 2656 6617

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.