COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-21

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	11-03	10-27	--	10-21	12-07	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	--	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-04	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-14	10-31	--	10-29	--	10-15	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	12-02	--	10-04	09-28	10-25	11-03	--	--	10-24	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	11-02	--	10-28	11-02	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	10-30	--	--	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	10-25	11-02	10-14	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	10-29	11-01	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	12-08	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	09-27	10-25	--	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	12-08	--	--	--	11-02	12-09	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	11-01	11-29	09-29	--	--	--	10-26	09-22	10-26	--	11-03	--	--	--	12-10	--	11-02	--	--	11-02	09-27	09-26	11-04	12-10	--	10-14	10-25	--	10-29	11-04	--	11-04	11-03	11-05	11-04	--	11-03	--	09-30	11-02	11-02	10-25	--	10-11	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	12-10	10-13	--	11-01	10-18	12-08	10-11	--	10-17	--	12-09	10-09	--	--	11-03	10-19	11-02	11-01	--	09-30	11-05	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-26	10-31	--	--	--	11-09	--	--	--	10-13	--	10-25	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	11-01	10-31	--	10-18	10-12	11-01	--	--	11-02	--	--	12-07	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-12	--	10-12	--	--	--	10-29	11-02	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	11-03	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment		26	82		62	242					191	28			77	72			625	63	163	99	55	235	49	136		441		50				321			69		57	70	159	141			51					131		27		128	145	53			62		23				293	144	20				53			165	29	249	57		252						108	31	226	77									55	75					41	129	55		24					71	32		44			65			75						43		52				59			252				285	153	360	152		85	542	255			60	100	529				14	610	61		29				31		91			36	55	392	85	450		51	159		49	109		91	122	35	58		131		609	68	40	257		64		82		102			94	43	89	41		19	197	159	64		198		53	67			17	237	231	85		183	36		435	113		95				66	141				83				70		76	89						117	82	57		183	125	194			160			201		177	46			90								47	10		138				261	162			135									91					320				137			138	37				65	41	130
Days since peak		48	55		61	14					69	78			56	58			47	49	64	71	55	70	37	51		53		67				54			19		78	84	57	48			58					69		49		54	49	63			71		52				79	49	50				48			57	49	68	50		49						49	53	50	49									71	85					71	52	13		49					85	57		48			56			48						54		49				71			13				49	12	55	83		75	85	50			50	22	83				56	90	56		48				11		49			49	85	86	47	11		68	57		53	47		47	48	46	47		48		82	49	49	57		71		48		69			48	56	11	69		50	64	13	71		65		12	73			48	63	49	50		82	46		83	50		49				56	51				42				69		57	48						73	50	51		64	70	50			49			14		64	53			48								57	39		70				53	49			62									77					61				78			48	50				71	48	76
Last total	904	1734	4374	2151	4360	4928	4717	1535	9083	11719	11795	2209	8557	3230	4594	4333	4991	9599	48999	3827	10982	5935	3053	16589	3008	8582	2660	32269	3728	2212	10070	3442	5417	17500	2141	9834	2945	3746	3878	5657	11100	9254	2455	5712	3369	5480	3169	3283	6249	7291	4932	1968	3395	10894	10715	3208	1670	1700	4466	3488	1268	1543	4635	1280	22306	10891	1545	2095	10942	3176	4045	4483	1702	9467	1464	13975	3965	4447	12878	11474	995	2199	2027	3379	4300	2110	11438	4693	3108	1907	2036	1256	3088	12056	5572	2064	3416	3127	1915	1790	3714	1337	2763	8605	4303	3115	1487	4600	2172	8166	3092	5309	1969	5525	2551	8075	2705	4056	8183	1457	4811	2516	2852	13222	3020	3270	2727	9905	3092	2066	8498	2631	4420	2766	1227	6234	3874	2368	2898	12197	5454	21617	8402	9409	4858	39568	20739	1532	7710	3279	4401	26071	8559	6335	1226	1128	34449	3646	13717	1465	1350	6121	969	1182	2765	6565	7665	1827	2308	3710	17067	5353	13282	1299	3370	5843	2294	2999	5764	1037	5157	7729	2108	2826	7429	10286	2573	18967	4229	3001	16201	4504	5715	6502	4688	6178	8268	4278	14315	5154	2453	3215	2479	4630	1177	14196	2735	3802	2146	12866	2940	2563	3876	2378	626	885	14762	14954	3609	2124	11409	2492	2902	28316	6693	5859	7204	2163	1933	2140	3791	7752	751	2370	3379	2612	2117	2095	2457	4278	2260	4243	7091	5074	5879	8534	2820	3244	8449	4917	3342	1851	11808	8874	12069	2462	1905	12547	2154	5830	8089	5041	11320	2596	2049	1276	5023	2489	1917	1377	6399	2556	7354	3900	2153	604	12282	9749	2577	1848	2134	15420	11450	10572	9150	9497	3968	3192	2337	2947	1927	2647	2697	639	5190	2621	1891	2275	6098	18415	6630	2185	3471	11096	2731	3495	10593	2205	1426	2403	3996	3839	2499	6344
Last daily increment	36	25	64	50	70	197	194	60	234	393	86	12	258	65	53	77	162	355	515	38	93	38	27	76	49	56	103	174	200	64	256	179	105	180	66	265	50	155	38	82	87	80	47	140	45	149	69	134	206	72	217	21	149	163	142	33	25	54	27	111	14	28	103	44	230	153	16	23	226	94	59	126	40	80	19	113	38	104	174	247	31	29	32	141	24	34	90	54	90	81	21	52	103	424	219	39	37	36	30	20	84	56	23	77	44	61	29	107	50	251	69	42	36	119	42	250	155	22	212	32	65	129	78	387	38	119	18	352	46	22	200	68	55	67	44	168	93	38	51	104	89	146	48	216	52	271	180	49	206	34	47	165	181	192	54	8	211	49	361	19	33	153	19	25	41	63	312	31	23	34	72	51	343	38	29	33	59	34	43	44	96	45	21	28	135	84	81	107	56	38	59	107	80	126	60	130	50	104	345	25	27	37	34	96	19	86	115	18	106	57	56	53	54	72	6	11	116	186	40	63	86	23	108	109	58	133	107	75	71	60	45	90	21	27	54	35	44	60	71	39	66	48	57	92	238	294	68	132	57	57	42	75	127	76	120	47	44	89	37	135	151	84	68	21	40	22	51	107	37	35	110	105	270	123	10	9	348	97	88	77	68	105	157	231	183	100	66	95	40	133	37	90	103	36	35	43	57	69	145	101	139	33	108	128	54	98	185	16	25	58	133	29	38	77
Last week	185	127	289	317	295	890	832	256	1827	2160	391	44	1726	336	249	255	748	2154	2802	189	379	184	153	377	216	559	515	775	973	233	1597	939	606	698	283	2093	214	780	186	363	344	285	246	1000	239	828	232	917	1154	312	1188	152	571	711	667	161	201	235	182	612	35	122	411	161	1030	737	63	269	2042	496	191	824	177	508	93	537	290	652	752	1548	139	176	232	594	163	164	421	293	388	329	173	185	558	2371	1450	308	164	177	212	172	657	186	109	313	287	289	134	785	184	1657	386	210	116	863	194	1656	649	117	1315	195	285	761	460	2678	278	695	116	1700	211	181	1365	254	184	326	160	1255	581	194	347	522	778	611	206	1831	230	1128	905	291	1532	209	293	778	951	1053	341	65	952	225	2375	74	150	1138	108	148	380	271	1811	217	153	222	329	256	2432	134	168	133	338	214	255	184	362	251	108	173	631	486	365	634	249	157	368	455	330	695	254	702	313	592	2839	143	168	444	162	796	61	384	764	123	535	441	363	286	236	394	40	61	448	855	197	254	346	115	593	775	257	698	437	286	339	321	238	444	66	167	311	161	260	275	321	193	257	221	324	534	1638	1781	458	637	272	290	226	347	446	374	658	203	191	438	301	1040	951	409	289	133	361	121	263	405	210	142	644	545	1839	732	85	57	2413	408	495	369	252	463	663	2100	1809	496	291	490	296	578	219	411	446	73	154	235	217	336	988	439	583	211	520	492	440	540	782	141	174	210	674	149	167	307
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95									56																																					68																																								71									55																																75	75																																						74											74																																																																			27
Low between peaks																			9									27																																					1																																								25																																									7	14																																																																																																																				2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-22 to 2020-12-28

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-21	904	1734	4374	2151	4360	4928	4717	1535	9083	11719	11795	2209	8557	3230	4594	4333	4991	9599	48999	3827	10982	5935	3053	16589	3008	8582	2660	32269	3728	2212	10070	3442	5417	17500	2141	9834	2945	3746	3878	5657	11100	9254	2455	5712	3369	5480	3169	3283	6249	7291	4932	1968	3395	10894	10715	3208	1670	1700	4466	3488	1268	1543	4635	1280	22306	10891	1545	2095	10942	3176	4045	4483	1702	9467	1464	13975	3965	4447	12878	11474	995	2199	2027	3379	4300	2110	11438	4693	3108	1907	2036	1256	3088	12056	5572	2064	3416	3127	1915	1790	3714	1337	2763	8605	4303	3115	1487	4600	2172	8166	3092	5309	1969	5525	2551	8075	2705	4056	8183	1457	4811	2516	2852	13222	3020	3270	2727	9905	3092	2066	8498	2631	4420	2766	1227	6234	3874	2368	2898	12197	5454	21617	8402	9409	4858	39568	20739	1532	7710	3279	4401	26071	8559	6335	1226	1128	34449	3646	13717	1465	1350	6121	969	1182	2765	6565	7665	1827	2308	3710	17067	5353	13282	1299	3370	5843	2294	2999	5764	1037	5157	7729	2108	2826	7429	10286	2573	18967	4229	3001	16201	4504	5715	6502	4688	6178	8268	4278	14315	5154	2453	3215	2479	4630	1177	14196	2735	3802	2146	12866	2940	2563	3876	2378	626	885	14762	14954	3609	2124	11409	2492	2902	28316	6693	5859	7204	2163	1933	2140	3791	7752	751	2370	3379	2612	2117	2095	2457	4278	2260	4243	7091	5074	5879	8534	2820	3244	8449	4917	3342	1851	11808	8874	12069	2462	1905	12547	2154	5830	8089	5041	11320	2596	2049	1276	5023	2489	1917	1377	6399	2556	7354	3900	2153	604	12282	9749	2577	1848	2134	15420	11450	10572	9150	9497	3968	3192	2337	2947	1927	2647	2697	639	5190	2621	1891	2275	6098	18415	6630	2185	3471	11096	2731	3495	10593	2205	1426	2403	3996	3839	2499	6344
2020-12-22	954	1762	4415	2246	4399	5172	4971	1559	9080	12270	11850	2219	8557	3232	4637	4392	5205	10230	49590	3856	11010	5965	3077	16650	3064	8669	2795	32420	4180	2238	10490	3642	5570	17520	2156	10050	2968	3902	3878	5726	11160	9302	2525	5931	3376	5607	3226	3581	6525	7335	5288	1987	3496	10990	10810	3231	1700	1743	4498	3580	1272	1563	4780	1280	22510	11060	1555	2154	11320	3303	4066	4528	1736	9541	1475	14070	4011	4617	12910	11980	1021	2229	2073	3503	4329	2131	11510	4743	3211	2024	2060	1292	3212	12570	5840	2071	3420	3150	1936	1800	3881	1372	2776	8671	4368	3168	1506	4726	2217	8540	3135	5309	1996	5661	2576	8500	2769	4076	8427	1497	4852	2680	2986	13550	3072	3434	2734	10250	3120	2084	8780	2684	4449	2833	1243	6453	3999	2407	2934	12250	5573	21740	8440	9630	4891	39650	20830	1596	8031	3307	4455	26160	8680	6627	1289	1136	34530	3679	14300	1479	1383	6284	990	1207	2765	6608	7990	1895	2316	3735	17120	5383	13590	1325	3398	5881	2366	3036	5807	1079	5205	7770	2122	2849	7538	10360	2649	19060	4266	3025	16260	4603	5715	6502	4748	6340	8298	4401	14510	5179	2474	3302	2501	4721	1184	14260	2927	3823	2420	12980	3003	2604	3916	2480	633	901	14830	14970	3641	2177	11480	2509	3020	28420	6735	5986	7292	2238	2035	2215	3845	7821	768	2395	3422	2637	2176	2179	2505	4306	2309	4249	7148	5215	6213	8850	2915	3371	8449	4954	3375	1923	11810	8930	12220	2512	1935	12580	2154	5920	8250	5127	11320	2597	2049	1312	5060	2570	1959	1399	6505	2660	7664	4089	2163	612	12980	9810	2710	1986	2167	15510	11550	10570	9540	9580	4040	3294	2390	3035	1963	2756	2864	663	5216	2660	1950	2374	6267	18510	6728	2227	3579	11160	2783	3600	10620	2218	1461	2445	4175	3861	2521	6392
2020-12-23	995	1788	4454	2317	4434	5359	5185	1585	9240	12810	11910	2228	8746	3274	4678	4446	5343	10800	50180	3885	11060	5994	3101	16710	3113	8774	2913	32540	4494	2268	10840	3841	5695	17630	2210	10270	2990	4057	3906	5801	11200	9346	2590	6154	3419	5738	3267	3843	6776	7376	5569	2005	3597	11120	10910	3253	1728	1784	4530	3671	1275	1581	4908	1294	22710	11210	1565	2191	11650	3412	4096	4662	1768	9613	1485	14150	4053	4789	13020	12370	1045	2258	2125	3623	4358	2151	11570	4791	3306	2104	2081	1320	3331	13080	6118	2098	3441	3171	1957	1811	4052	1404	2789	8731	4413	3219	1524	4852	2259	8910	3177	5346	2019	5797	2599	8890	2840	4095	8634	1535	4890	2849	3083	14070	3128	3597	2755	10600	3147	2109	9060	2734	4477	2888	1258	6673	4124	2444	2970	12330	5692	21850	8486	9880	4922	39840	20980	1659	8307	3334	4507	26290	8795	6863	1352	1144	34690	3709	14780	1492	1414	6446	1009	1231	2789	6650	8315	1956	2324	3772	17180	5429	13960	1350	3426	5915	2436	3072	5849	1123	5250	7809	2136	2871	7640	10450	2733	19140	4301	3048	16320	4698	5764	6594	4815	6499	8357	4509	14690	5203	2494	3383	2522	4838	1191	14320	3078	3843	2579	13060	3065	2642	3955	2556	640	914	14920	15100	3672	2228	11560	2525	3139	28550	6775	6109	7399	2306	2120	2290	3896	7887	783	2420	3483	2662	2240	2252	2567	4332	2357	4278	7206	5345	6547	9160	3011	3492	8489	5000	3407	1993	11870	8983	12330	2556	1983	12660	2180	6011	8407	5208	11360	2620	2076	1335	5096	2646	1999	1420	6609	2761	7916	4237	2172	619	13470	9880	2839	2080	2214	15580	11630	10820	9870	9660	4096	3385	2439	3176	1999	2855	2985	683	5241	2697	2008	2452	6436	18580	6822	2270	3683	11240	2864	3704	10750	2231	1495	2483	4337	3882	2542	6438
2020-12-24	1043	1813	4493	2389	4471	5542	5375	1613	9410	13330	11960	2237	8827	3322	4719	4500	5518	11350	50760	3914	11110	6023	3124	16760	3146	8856	3044	32680	4827	2300	11200	4045	5817	17730	2251	10510	3013	4217	3931	5864	11250	9391	2638	6386	3462	5869	3311	4067	7024	7418	5850	2023	3698	11230	11000	3275	1757	1825	4561	3766	1278	1600	5035	1300	22900	11370	1575	2234	11990	3528	4119	4811	1800	9684	1495	14230	4106	4964	13160	12780	1070	2287	2165	3746	4387	2172	11640	4839	3389	2186	2099	1357	3453	13620	6408	2138	3468	3193	1979	1823	4234	1437	2802	8792	4463	3271	1542	4982	2300	9280	3220	5376	2043	5932	2621	9250	2915	4114	8887	1575	4927	3026	3168	14570	3185	3769	2768	10960	3173	2129	9340	2783	4503	2950	1274	6894	4253	2481	3009	12400	5811	21970	8528	10170	4953	40000	21130	1725	8582	3361	4560	26410	8912	7090	1419	1152	34830	3740	15240	1506	1446	6614	1029	1256	2816	6691	8639	2015	2333	3814	17230	5471	14290	1376	3452	5949	2508	3108	5888	1163	5295	7849	2150	2892	7740	10530	2813	19230	4336	3070	16370	4795	5812	6663	4872	6662	8416	4610	14880	5228	2514	3448	2542	4951	1197	14380	3202	3864	2756	13130	3127	2681	3993	2641	646	926	15010	15230	3702	2279	11620	2542	3264	28660	6815	6231	7495	2372	2199	2367	3947	7953	798	2445	3535	2687	2312	2306	2624	4359	2404	4309	7261	5474	6897	9480	3095	3612	8528	5045	3439	2066	11920	9037	12430	2591	2017	12710	2204	6103	8562	5290	11410	2639	2104	1355	5132	2720	2041	1442	6712	2864	8223	4382	2181	627	14030	9950	2964	2176	2247	15640	11720	11090	10240	9760	4149	3489	2486	3337	2036	2957	3130	704	5265	2735	2052	2528	6603	18640	6917	2299	3788	11330	2953	3809	10870	2244	1529	2521	4492	3903	2563	6483
2020-12-25	1088	1837	4529	2444	4505	5716	5563	1640	9640	13730	12020	2246	8827	3366	4760	4551	5690	11870	51260	3943	11180	6051	3147	16820	3181	8941	3164	32820	5019	2331	11550	4251	5903	17820	2296	10740	3035	4379	3964	5917	11290	9434	2691	6623	3494	6001	3360	4299	7290	7458	6159	2040	3802	11350	11100	3297	1784	1864	4592	3861	1281	1617	5159	1322	23090	11520	1584	2291	12350	3610	4142	4910	1832	9754	1505	14320	4155	5146	13270	13130	1093	2315	2219	3868	4415	2191	11700	4886	3478	2260	2120	1392	3573	14170	6710	2175	3488	3213	2001	1834	4421	1469	2814	8849	4503	3322	1560	5114	2341	9650	3261	5401	2066	6068	2642	9640	2993	4132	9117	1614	4962	3212	3250	14780	3237	3944	2787	11300	3198	2155	9630	2832	4528	3008	1289	7116	4384	2517	3046	12490	5929	22080	8573	10440	4982	40150	21250	1792	8850	3387	4611	26540	9026	7269	1487	1160	34980	3770	15690	1519	1478	6782	1048	1280	2843	6730	8967	2081	2342	3853	17290	5504	14650	1402	3479	5983	2580	3143	5931	1217	5337	7887	2164	2913	7836	10600	2915	19310	4370	3092	16430	4890	5864	6716	4923	6825	8461	4708	15060	5252	2533	3516	2562	5062	1204	14430	3362	3884	2936	13210	3188	2718	4030	2717	653	939	15100	15350	3732	2329	11700	2557	3392	28780	6853	6351	7588	2434	2273	2444	3996	8017	812	2469	3580	2711	2366	2366	2678	4385	2452	4335	7317	5602	7260	9850	3214	3728	8566	5086	3470	2139	11970	9089	12550	2626	2053	12780	2225	6195	8716	5370	11440	2659	2128	1371	5166	2792	2082	1464	6815	2965	8522	4534	2190	635	14530	10010	3100	2288	2294	15710	11800	11310	10640	9840	4189	3588	2533	3452	2072	3058	3185	724	5289	2771	2092	2603	6771	18700	7010	2330	3892	11410	3035	3914	10990	2257	1563	2556	4644	3923	2582	6527
2020-12-26	1127	1861	4566	2464	4539	5872	5726	1668	9880	14140	12070	2255	8972	3395	4800	4603	5835	12250	51760	3972	11210	6080	3170	16870	3200	9006	3273	32920	5289	2363	11900	4464	5961	17900	2329	10990	3056	4544	3983	5966	11340	9477	2723	6869	3512	6137	3396	4533	7525	7498	6426	2058	3892	11440	11200	3319	1811	1903	4623	3958	1285	1635	5287	1330	23270	11660	1593	2314	12640	3689	4160	4982	1865	9824	1514	14380	4193	5334	13370	13410	1117	2343	2272	3995	4444	2210	11770	4933	3534	2321	2136	1414	3698	14750	7027	2222	3510	3233	2023	1845	4617	1501	2826	8906	4537	3375	1578	5250	2383	10040	3303	5430	2088	6205	2664	9900	3074	4151	9283	1655	4997	3410	3304	15190	3294	4127	2801	11650	3224	2167	9920	2881	4554	3035	1304	7342	4519	2555	3083	12560	6049	22190	8605	10660	5011	40250	21370	1861	9098	3413	4663	26630	9140	7439	1558	1168	35070	3800	15940	1532	1511	6956	1067	1305	2866	6770	9300	2150	2351	3875	17340	5533	14940	1428	3505	6016	2654	3178	5968	1246	5380	7925	2178	2935	7931	10660	2976	19400	4404	3114	16490	4988	5896	6780	4959	6992	8496	4781	15230	5276	2551	3565	2582	5126	1210	14480	3499	3904	3138	13270	3250	2756	4068	2786	659	951	15180	15450	3762	2381	11760	2573	3524	28880	6892	6472	7660	2496	2339	2524	4045	8081	827	2494	3625	2736	2418	2420	2727	4411	2500	4371	7373	5733	7643	10120	3214	3846	8603	5121	3501	2215	12020	9141	12620	2652	2072	12830	2258	6287	8871	5451	11470	2673	2156	1391	5201	2865	2124	1486	6918	3069	8778	4674	2199	642	15050	10060	3235	2398	2318	15770	11890	11430	10930	9900	4212	3673	2579	3564	2109	3162	3227	744	5313	2808	2135	2656	6941	18760	7105	2355	3999	11500	3089	4022	11080	2270	1597	2591	4776	3943	2601	6571
2020-12-27	1174	1885	4604	2521	4574	6026	5880	1695	10040	14600	12130	2264	9041	3452	4841	4654	5971	12640	52340	4001	11270	6108	3194	16910	3213	9098	3392	33010	5541	2396	12210	4686	6037	17990	2375	11230	3078	4715	4010	6021	11380	9520	2776	7125	3551	6277	3437	4732	7733	7538	6707	2075	3975	11540	11290	3340	1838	1943	4654	4057	1288	1653	5418	1344	23460	11810	1603	2359	12920	3765	4185	5053	1897	9894	1524	14460	4244	5530	13470	13700	1141	2371	2306	4125	4473	2230	11830	4980	3614	2405	2139	1438	3828	15340	7359	2252	3534	3253	2045	1857	4821	1533	2838	8964	4579	3428	1596	5390	2425	10430	3345	5454	2110	6343	2685	10200	3157	4170	9479	1696	5032	3619	3393	15620	3344	4318	2820	12010	3249	2189	10230	2930	4579	3078	1320	7572	4657	2592	3122	12620	6170	22300	8643	10900	5041	40410	21490	1933	9340	3439	4715	26740	9256	7647	1631	1176	35200	3830	16300	1546	1544	7134	1087	1330	2898	6810	9640	2207	2360	3902	17400	5565	15250	1455	3532	6049	2730	3213	5997	1285	5423	7963	2191	2956	8024	10730	3038	19480	4437	3135	16540	5087	5937	6832	5014	7164	8534	4889	15410	5300	2570	3627	2602	5210	1216	14540	3625	3924	3300	13340	3313	2793	4105	2837	666	963	15260	15570	3792	2433	11830	2589	3662	29020	6930	6594	7755	2559	2423	2607	4094	8146	842	2520	3681	2760	2479	2466	2791	4438	2550	4407	7429	5867	8046	10390	3319	3966	8639	5163	3533	2293	12090	9194	12710	2691	2110	12890	2270	6382	9028	5534	11510	2692	2186	1409	5235	2938	2166	1508	7021	3175	9041	4811	2208	650	15410	10130	3352	2426	2351	15820	11970	11560	11230	9980	4253	3775	2625	3684	2147	3270	3326	764	5337	2845	2175	2716	7114	18820	7200	2386	4108	11570	3157	4133	11180	2282	1632	2627	4923	3964	2621	6615
2020-12-28	1213	1909	4641	2590	4608	6223	6051	1723	10290	15040	12180	2273	9383	3505	4881	4706	6142	13000	52770	4030	11350	6137	3217	16980	3267	9165	3506	33170	5763	2428	12490	4918	6110	18130	2447	11490	3100	4890	4042	6093	11470	9563	2822	7392	3592	6420	3495	4883	7977	7578	7006	2093	4085	11680	11390	3362	1865	1982	4685	4159	1291	1671	5553	1391	23640	11960	1612	2380	13220	3841	4235	5180	1931	9964	1533	14580	4284	5733	13610	13970	1166	2399	2343	4261	4501	2249	11900	5028	3700	2485	2153	1477	3962	15970	7709	2295	3566	3273	2068	1868	5035	1565	2850	9022	4632	3482	1614	5534	2469	10830	3387	5489	2133	6484	2707	10430	3243	4189	9687	1739	5067	3842	3471	16140	3378	4518	2837	12380	3274	2209	10540	2979	4605	3137	1336	7805	4800	2630	3160	12720	6292	22420	8680	11150	5070	40650	21660	2008	9579	3466	4767	26890	9372	7891	1707	1184	35390	3860	16790	1559	1578	7316	1106	1355	2946	6849	9987	2230	2369	3939	17450	5614	15620	1483	3559	6083	2809	3248	6046	1317	5467	8001	2205	2977	8117	10810	3100	19560	4472	3157	16600	5189	6001	6960	5058	7340	8579	5012	15590	5324	2589	3679	2621	5322	1223	14620	3775	3944	3429	13410	3376	2831	4143	2892	672	976	15340	15720	3823	2487	11900	2605	3805	29130	6969	6717	7832	2622	2479	2693	4143	8211	856	2546	3738	2785	2514	2523	2858	4465	2600	4446	7486	6004	8472	10700	3387	4088	8684	5215	3564	2375	12190	9246	12840	2736	2150	12970	2310	6478	9186	5618	11570	2711	2235	1427	5270	3012	2210	1531	7126	3284	9359	4948	2216	657	15780	10200	3447	2463	2408	15920	12060	11870	11470	10070	4312	3877	2671	3836	2186	3381	3448	784	5361	2883	2223	2773	7289	18910	7297	2412	4221	11670	3209	4247	11340	2295	1668	2662	5051	3984	2640	6659

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-22 to 2020-12-28

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-21	904	1734	4374	2151	4360	4928	4717	1535	9083	11719	11795	2209	8557	3230	4594	4333	4991	9599	48999	3827	10982	5935	3053	16589	3008	8582	2660	32269	3728	2212	10070	3442	5417	17500	2141	9834	2945	3746	3878	5657	11100	9254	2455	5712	3369	5480	3169	3283	6249	7291	4932	1968	3395	10894	10715	3208	1670	1700	4466	3488	1268	1543	4635	1280	22306	10891	1545	2095	10942	3176	4045	4483	1702	9467	1464	13975	3965	4447	12878	11474	995	2199	2027	3379	4300	2110	11438	4693	3108	1907	2036	1256	3088	12056	5572	2064	3416	3127	1915	1790	3714	1337	2763	8605	4303	3115	1487	4600	2172	8166	3092	5309	1969	5525	2551	8075	2705	4056	8183	1457	4811	2516	2852	13222	3020	3270	2727	9905	3092	2066	8498	2631	4420	2766	1227	6234	3874	2368	2898	12197	5454	21617	8402	9409	4858	39568	20739	1532	7710	3279	4401	26071	8559	6335	1226	1128	34449	3646	13717	1465	1350	6121	969	1182	2765	6565	7665	1827	2308	3710	17067	5353	13282	1299	3370	5843	2294	2999	5764	1037	5157	7729	2108	2826	7429	10286	2573	18967	4229	3001	16201	4504	5715	6502	4688	6178	8268	4278	14315	5154	2453	3215	2479	4630	1177	14196	2735	3802	2146	12866	2940	2563	3876	2378	626	885	14762	14954	3609	2124	11409	2492	2902	28316	6693	5859	7204	2163	1933	2140	3791	7752	751	2370	3379	2612	2117	2095	2457	4278	2260	4243	7091	5074	5879	8534	2820	3244	8449	4917	3342	1851	11808	8874	12069	2462	1905	12547	2154	5830	8089	5041	11320	2596	2049	1276	5023	2489	1917	1377	6399	2556	7354	3900	2153	604	12282	9749	2577	1848	2134	15420	11450	10572	9150	9497	3968	3192	2337	2947	1927	2647	2697	639	5190	2621	1891	2275	6098	18415	6630	2185	3471	11096	2731	3495	10593	2205	1426	2403	3996	3839	2499	6344
2020-12-22	937	1755	4430	2215	4404	5098	4893	1575	9330	12130	11860	2218	8840	3277	4642	4382	5143	10010	49500	3859	11040	5968	3075	16650	3046	8665	2755	32390	3961	2254	10340	3629	5516	17630	2187	10160	2981	3890	3907	5726	11160	9306	2503	5854	3409	5627	3216	3456	6447	7342	5161	1994	3491	11020	10830	3237	1700	1743	4505	3587	1274	1565	4716	1301	22480	11020	1556	2163	11260	3255	4080	4604	1732	9552	1476	14080	4010	4567	13010	11780	1021	2232	2065	3485	4325	2136	11510	4744	3183	1988	2067	1294	3186	12480	5849	2118	3441	3154	1949	1820	3820	1374	2778	8670	4344	3164	1510	4727	2207	8450	3147	5340	1992	5655	2583	8370	2815	4077	8426	1492	4857	2657	2950	13590	3066	3393	2746	10190	3127	2093	8710	2678	4455	2820	1250	6424	3967	2402	2953	12290	5573	21730	8437	9730	4905	39750	20900	1583	7991	3313	4457	26190	8710	6543	1292	1138	34620	3685	14230	1478	1377	6289	986	1206	2816	6613	7965	1860	2331	3750	17130	5399	13640	1323	3401	5869	2352	3035	5805	1073	5229	7773	2125	2854	7536	10380	2633	19060	4273	3028	16270	4583	5774	6616	4735	6311	8320	4382	14720	5177	2478	3307	2506	4740	1188	14270	2877	3822	2282	12960	2998	2610	3914	2447	632	896	14860	15120	3642	2172	11480	2515	3017	28450	6740	5990	7294	2219	2000	2208	3829	7839	764	2395	3428	2639	2170	2155	2510	4312	2312	4283	7146	5177	6138	8840	2911	3361	8494	4975	3383	1910	11890	8939	12200	2496	1938	12610	2196	5999	8271	5114	11370	2615	2109	1302	5069	2562	1951	1401	6531	2656	7710	4023	2163	612	12700	9820	2661	1922	2180	15510	11570	10930	9400	9573	4021	3281	2383	3054	1962	2719	2801	658	5218	2662	1933	2337	6264	18480	6739	2223	3562	11170	2800	3592	10730	2225	1455	2437	4118	3869	2525	6397
2020-12-23	963	1771	4474	2273	4443	5262	5052	1611	9630	12570	11920	2225	9200	3318	4683	4416	5266	10400	49940	3889	11090	5999	3100	16700	3089	8757	2850	32500	4185	2288	10610	3811	5609	17740	2232	10510	3008	4068	3933	5787	11210	9348	2543	6014	3447	5787	3244	3648	6646	7383	5366	2013	3571	11130	10930	3260	1728	1781	4533	3676	1276	1582	4784	1322	22630	11130	1566	2208	11640	3338	4108	4758	1754	9632	1486	14160	4051	4715	13110	12070	1044	2260	2107	3577	4353	2151	11570	4796	3252	2037	2094	1319	3273	12950	6140	2165	3461	3175	1981	1850	3954	1401	2791	8710	4383	3211	1529	4861	2236	8800	3205	5371	2005	5797	2606	8690	2927	4096	8609	1526	4896	2827	3036	14170	3107	3516	2765	10460	3155	2117	8940	2720	4482	2870	1264	6634	4061	2427	3007	12360	5717	21820	8466	10060	4941	39930	21060	1639	8297	3342	4516	26300	8850	6776	1359	1147	34760	3720	14720	1491	1400	6483	1006	1234	2875	6657	8266	1896	2356	3785	17180	5439	14120	1347	3428	5890	2406	3069	5847	1097	5277	7809	2139	2876	7630	10450	2685	19140	4308	3049	16330	4648	5820	6740	4775	6434	8372	4484	15190	5201	2500	3404	2528	4869	1195	14330	3045	3843	2389	13040	3056	2651	3946	2514	639	902	14920	15240	3671	2207	11520	2532	3140	28570	6781	6106	7362	2258	2057	2271	3867	7914	772	2425	3483	2665	2212	2210	2563	4340	2356	4310	7206	5269	6443	9140	2987	3462	8532	5021	3419	1961	11950	8997	12300	2532	1973	12680	2252	6188	8447	5183	11410	2634	2175	1321	5108	2618	1979	1420	6651	2749	8090	4157	2175	622	13130	9880	2746	1987	2217	15570	11660	11350	9680	9638	4069	3361	2430	3159	1993	2781	2899	669	5240	2703	1971	2390	6419	18550	6824	2257	3638	11230	2870	3679	10840	2245	1480	2464	4235	3893	2547	6436
2020-12-24	991	1786	4515	2335	4489	5429	5197	1648	9960	12970	11970	2231	9550	3362	4721	4451	5401	10790	50370	3918	11140	6028	3126	16760	3126	8836	2950	32620	4445	2323	10880	3998	5700	17830	2275	10860	3037	4248	3958	5843	11260	9389	2579	6179	3486	5950	3273	3817	6846	7424	5576	2037	3654	11230	11030	3284	1757	1818	4561	3768	1279	1599	4846	1338	22770	11230	1575	2257	12020	3422	4134	4917	1776	9709	1496	14230	4097	4859	13210	12370	1067	2288	2137	3669	4379	2177	11630	4847	3313	2091	2118	1350	3360	13460	6472	2216	3488	3197	2012	1881	4092	1426	2803	8745	4427	3259	1548	5007	2266	9140	3258	5397	2019	5944	2632	8990	3036	4112	8859	1559	4933	3007	3114	14740	3150	3641	2780	10730	3184	2139	9170	2762	4509	2923	1280	6849	4158	2453	3062	12430	5863	21900	8493	10440	4978	40080	21210	1688	8601	3370	4574	26410	8991	7008	1432	1156	34900	3754	15190	1504	1424	6680	1023	1262	2934	6697	8573	1931	2380	3826	17240	5477	14580	1371	3456	5911	2460	3102	5889	1123	5326	7843	2153	2899	7723	10530	2735	19230	4344	3071	16390	4714	5865	6841	4811	6551	8426	4587	15670	5226	2521	3487	2550	5001	1203	14380	3215	3864	2514	13120	3116	2693	3977	2599	645	913	14980	15360	3694	2240	11570	2548	3269	28690	6824	6218	7425	2296	2113	2331	3905	7982	780	2449	3531	2692	2262	2252	2610	4366	2397	4338	7265	5364	6746	9460	3059	3567	8569	5066	3456	2015	12000	9054	12410	2562	1999	12740	2314	6387	8628	5245	11450	2651	2240	1339	5146	2679	2006	1441	6763	2842	8550	4294	2185	630	13610	9930	2833	2050	2247	15630	11740	11800	10000	9714	4114	3446	2476	3282	2027	2845	3013	680	5263	2744	1998	2444	6578	18600	6909	2285	3714	11310	2951	3777	10960	2262	1506	2492	4350	3913	2569	6473
2020-12-25	1019	1802	4556	2393	4530	5600	5351	1686	10340	13300	12030	2238	9880	3413	4761	4488	5539	11210	50770	3948	11200	6059	3156	16820	3163	8922	3044	32740	4614	2360	11150	4196	5778	17920	2317	11240	3064	4396	3988	5892	11310	9431	2617	6348	3521	6116	3303	3999	7051	7464	5810	2056	3748	11330	11130	3309	1788	1856	4594	3860	1282	1615	4902	1363	22910	11340	1584	2328	12430	3503	4160	5072	1797	9783	1505	14320	4144	5009	13320	12660	1090	2315	2178	3766	4407	2197	11690	4900	3382	2141	2147	1379	3447	13970	6781	2266	3508	3218	2043	1914	4235	1453	2819	8781	4466	3307	1567	5152	2299	9440	3311	5421	2032	6089	2657	9320	3157	4131	9094	1595	4972	3197	3182	15100	3192	3768	2798	11010	3212	2165	9410	2803	4535	2975	1295	7069	4262	2481	3115	12520	6013	22010	8523	10800	5007	40220	21330	1746	8898	3401	4633	26520	9132	7201	1513	1166	35040	3786	15690	1517	1447	6879	1039	1291	2999	6739	8888	1971	2405	3865	17300	5513	15060	1396	3482	5933	2515	3136	5932	1160	5374	7878	2166	2921	7818	10610	2792	19310	4378	3092	16450	4784	5916	6942	4847	6671	8473	4691	16180	5251	2542	3575	2572	5151	1211	14440	3400	3885	2636	13200	3176	2733	4007	2673	651	923	15060	15470	3723	2274	11620	2567	3370	28810	6864	6331	7490	2333	2170	2408	3941	8048	787	2475	3576	2718	2299	2301	2653	4395	2438	4365	7325	5456	7091	9810	3145	3672	8607	5110	3490	2067	12050	9110	12520	2588	2027	12800	2371	6600	8815	5309	11480	2671	2313	1355	5186	2747	2033	1461	6877	2933	9010	4437	2196	639	14050	9980	2924	2115	2286	15700	11830	12250	10330	9783	4155	3529	2524	3359	2063	2910	3071	691	5285	2786	2025	2504	6751	18660	6993	2312	3790	11370	3026	3878	11070	2291	1532	2517	4469	3934	2591	6510
2020-12-26	1046	1815	4592	2438	4552	5773	5480	1725	10640	13630	12090	2245	10280	3446	4798	4515	5668	11530	51150	3977	11240	6087	3178	16860	3194	8992	3123	32840	4822	2393	11430	4382	5844	18000	2358	11630	3079	4559	4009	5941	11360	9472	2650	6485	3547	6286	3325	4171	7258	7504	5991	2072	3824	11410	11230	3330	1812	1894	4622	3955	1284	1630	4957	1380	23020	11450	1594	2351	12820	3573	4185	5223	1818	9844	1515	14380	4182	5163	13400	12880	1114	2338	2212	3834	4433	2212	11750	4952	3434	2174	2166	1404	3536	14500	7089	2308	3529	3239	2072	1932	4383	1472	2828	8816	4502	3356	1587	5284	2324	9750	3365	5444	2045	6220	2677	9600	3275	4147	9261	1629	5010	3401	3250	15600	3232	3895	2813	11280	3241	2184	9660	2846	4557	3012	1310	7294	4358	2505	3167	12580	6165	22070	8546	11040	5024	40340	21430	1790	9180	3426	4693	26600	9277	7374	1588	1175	35150	3816	16000	1531	1471	7078	1051	1320	3053	6777	9213	2005	2430	3882	17350	5544	15400	1421	3500	5952	2571	3170	5973	1179	5413	7908	2179	2940	7907	10670	2840	19390	4408	3114	16500	4847	5942	7025	4876	6783	8514	4794	16690	5276	2560	3634	2595	5279	1219	14490	3588	3906	2748	13270	3237	2769	4033	2745	657	928	15110	15540	3743	2307	11650	2581	3500	28920	6901	6432	7535	2367	2225	2452	3980	8105	795	2494	3619	2745	2328	2342	2695	4418	2472	4394	7386	5545	7403	10100	3195	3769	8642	5149	3517	2119	12090	9158	12600	2612	2048	12860	2424	6779	8963	5359	11510	2684	2377	1372	5214	2794	2060	1478	6957	3026	9450	4573	2202	645	14420	10030	3016	2167	2310	15760	11910	12540	10540	9841	4186	3610	2566	3444	2091	2976	3121	702	5309	2828	2053	2550	6907	18700	7052	2335	3863	11430	3068	3941	11150	2306	1557	2549	4582	3953	2612	6542
2020-12-27	1074	1829	4626	2483	4584	5951	5609	1765	10880	13950	12140	2251	10680	3488	4837	4542	5796	11870	51590	4008	11290	6114	3199	16920	3223	9070	3218	32950	5007	2428	11690	4597	5902	18070	2402	11990	3094	4750	4031	5992	11410	9514	2687	6639	3578	6462	3352	4325	7462	7543	6181	2088	3893	11500	11330	3350	1837	1933	4648	4051	1287	1644	5013	1396	23150	11550	1603	2387	13220	3644	4212	5375	1840	9916	1524	14450	4225	5323	13490	13120	1138	2367	2236	3917	4460	2235	11800	5006	3491	2219	2184	1431	3628	15030	7462	2342	3548	3260	2104	1953	4537	1500	2839	8849	4543	3406	1607	5418	2348	10100	3411	5462	2058	6371	2696	9890	3404	4166	9445	1660	5049	3620	3318	16080	3263	4029	2829	11570	3269	2205	9890	2889	4580	3058	1325	7527	4445	2527	3224	12630	6322	22150	8567	11300	5040	40480	21530	1835	9464	3450	4754	26700	9408	7620	1667	1181	35260	3847	16400	1544	1496	7274	1069	1350	3112	6816	9550	2035	2455	3901	17410	5576	15810	1446	3523	5974	2628	3205	6010	1194	5447	7940	2193	2962	7995	10740	2888	19470	4438	3136	16560	4908	5970	7095	4905	6900	8553	4904	17230	5301	2579	3716	2617	5364	1228	14540	3784	3927	2877	13330	3299	2809	4062	2791	665	934	15160	15620	3769	2337	11690	2596	3629	29030	6941	6543	7594	2405	2285	2497	4019	8166	803	2516	3664	2772	2353	2382	2740	4444	2514	4421	7447	5611	7753	10320	3256	3868	8666	5190	3543	2168	12130	9212	12670	2641	2075	12920	2463	6942	9108	5416	11530	2697	2441	1387	5245	2853	2087	1497	7049	3115	9770	4701	2208	652	14770	10080	3109	2223	2337	15810	11980	12840	10810	9910	4222	3697	2612	3520	2120	3044	3194	713	5329	2871	2077	2592	7059	18770	7119	2360	3942	11480	3117	4014	11230	2317	1582	2574	4695	3974	2634	6578
2020-12-28	1101	1844	4670	2548	4628	6141	5772	1805	11200	14360	12190	2258	11160	3525	4880	4576	5945	12220	52000	4038	11360	6145	3232	16980	3277	9159	3319	33080	5261	2467	11980	4830	5967	18170	2453	12390	3124	4968	4056	6049	11480	9556	2725	6813	3614	6642	3385	4501	7681	7585	6431	2107	3978	11600	11430	3374	1865	1973	4684	4151	1291	1659	5076	1419	23300	11660	1613	2415	13650	3730	4244	5551	1862	9999	1534	14560	4274	5502	13590	13420	1163	2403	2263	4015	4489	2258	11870	5060	3557	2274	2205	1462	3724	15590	7878	2383	3574	3282	2138	1986	4697	1537	2852	8885	4594	3456	1627	5561	2385	10480	3470	5485	2071	6535	2715	10220	3546	4188	9680	1698	5090	3854	3395	16680	3298	4172	2846	11880	3298	2226	10130	2932	4613	3113	1340	7765	4551	2551	3284	12710	6482	22260	8592	11640	5067	40660	21700	1887	9788	3481	4815	26820	9548	7907	1755	1191	35410	3884	16960	1557	1520	7490	1087	1381	3179	6860	9898	2061	2480	3944	17470	5617	16370	1472	3553	6000	2686	3240	6057	1212	5489	7977	2207	2983	8091	10820	2933	19560	4475	3157	16620	4973	6013	7214	4940	7026	8598	5018	17780	5327	2601	3806	2640	5480	1236	14620	4002	3948	3053	13440	3362	2848	4094	2860	672	940	15220	15720	3804	2370	11720	2614	3776	29150	6986	6653	7651	2447	2338	2559	4060	8237	811	2548	3723	2799	2380	2431	2785	4471	2561	4449	7509	5676	8161	10580	3314	3979	8696	5237	3581	2226	12190	9271	12810	2681	2103	12980	2532	7142	9308	5471	11570	2714	2521	1405	5287	2922	2114	1518	7178	3213	10360	4870	2216	660	15240	10140	3202	2282	2381	15900	12080	13350	11110	9987	4289	3788	2661	3607	2155	3114	3312	724	5355	2914	2110	2643	7229	18850	7192	2390	4024	11560	3180	4112	11350	2334	1610	2607	4816	3995	2656	6617

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-21 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-21