COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-26

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-26

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-1310-2110-27 --10-2112-0712-13 -- -- --10-1310-04 -- --10-2610-24 -- --11-0411-0210-1810-1110-2710-1211-1512-15 --10-29 -- -- -- -- --10-2812-14 --12-02 --10-0412-1510-2511-03 -- --10-2412-14 --12-14 --12-1412-14 -- -- --12-1510-1912-13 --10-11 --10-3012-15 -- --10-03 --11-01 -- -- --11-03 -- --10-2511-0210-14 -- --11-02 -- --11-01 -- --11-02 --11-0111-02 -- --12-14 --12-13 -- --12-1510-1109-27 --12-1112-1212-1310-1110-3012-1412-15 -- -- -- -- --12-1512-1412-1411-03 -- --10-26 -- --11-0312-1412-1512-1412-15 --10-28 --11-02 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- --11-0212-1410-2709-2912-1310-0709-2711-01 -- --11-0311-2912-15 --12-14 --12-1509-2210-2612-1411-03 -- -- -- -- --11-0212-13 -- --09-2709-2611-04 -- --12-1310-25 --10-2911-0412-1511-0411-0311-0511-04 --11-03 --09-3011-0211-0210-2512-1510-1212-1412-15 --10-1312-13 --11-0310-26 --12-1512-1312-1510-1812-1410-12 --10-17 -- --12-13 -- --11-0310-2011-0111-01 --09-3011-0512-1509-2911-01 --12-1312-15 --12-1510-2610-31 --12-1512-1411-09 --12-1512-1510-13 --10-2511-03 --12-14 --12-14 --10-0911-0110-31 --10-1810-1211-0112-15 --11-0212-13 --12-13 --10-1810-2912-1512-1411-03 -- -- --12-14 --12-1412-1310-25 -- --12-1512-13 -- --10-2911-0212-15 --10-2012-1512-1512-1512-1312-13 -- --12-1310-0512-1412-13 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- --12-1411-01 -- -- --10-1111-0310-06
Peak daily increment 54 29 82 62 182 179 191 28 77 72 626 63 163 98 55 234 50 154 441 322 65 71 57 68 159 141 51 162 188 69 257 151 53 52 62 23 23 293 20 53 165 28 249 252 38 108 225 77 47 136 95 55 75 32 133 32 41 129 59 54 44 50 189 44 65 75 179 99 543 60 43 52 59 285 180 360 152 387 86 541 255 60 107 161 201 24 610 61 455 29 91 368 54 392 85 31 159 49 109 40 91 122 35 58 131 609 67 40 257 86 64 132 164 101 122 94 43 38 204 20 197 171 64 199 40 17 237 231 85 183 36 157 435 112 95 72 69 66 141 32 73 82 57 71 70 76 89 338 102 118 82 57 183 125 194 45 160 81 190 177 46 104 28 90 124 422 147 47 97 101 261 162 429 135 55 134 70 116 39 26 91 45 57 320 137 186 37 65 41 130
Days since peak 13 66 60 66 19 13 74 83 61 63 52 54 69 76 60 75 41 11 58 59 12 24 83 11 62 53 63 12 12 12 12 11 68 13 76 57 11 84 55 53 62 54 73 54 55 54 55 54 12 13 11 76 90 15 14 13 76 57 12 11 11 12 12 53 61 53 12 11 12 11 59 54 76 54 12 60 88 13 80 90 55 53 27 11 12 11 95 61 12 53 54 13 90 91 52 13 62 58 52 11 52 53 51 52 53 87 54 54 62 11 75 12 11 74 13 53 61 11 13 11 69 12 75 70 13 53 67 55 55 87 51 11 88 55 13 11 11 61 56 11 12 47 11 11 74 62 53 12 12 78 55 56 69 75 55 11 54 13 13 69 58 11 12 53 12 12 13 62 11 13 58 54 11 67 11 11 11 13 13 13 82 12 13 66 83 12 55 76 53 81
Last total 1069 1878 4683 2586 4594 5624 5453 1793 10701 13958 12163 2256 9886 3580 4756 4525 5754 11499 51782 4006 11344 6123 3177 16917 3142 9397 3176 32929 4689 2482 11836 4037 6223 18107 2449 11949 3155 4542 4019 5956 11389 9488 2736 6782 3594 6079 3503 4008 7275 7547 6031 2093 3862 11544 11349 3315 1882 1975 4673 4073 1309 1644 5180 1406 23261 11560 1598 2565 13402 3826 4218 5236 1873 9966 1545 14418 4394 4887 13555 13198 1156 2344 2299 3976 4423 2268 11893 5003 3418 2283 2301 1435 3638 14678 6826 2453 3542 3249 2184 1942 4237 1452 2845 8986 4501 3394 1623 5318 2332 9800 3642 5504 2177 6319 2721 9742 3322 4209 9716 1726 5099 3123 3294 15273 3277 3960 2812 11666 3234 2383 10045 2939 4561 3067 1507 7330 4444 2513 3178 12627 6266 22084 8613 11154 5106 40594 21482 1861 9458 3493 4637 26780 9343 7157 1587 1208 35105 3829 15463 1557 1513 7422 1055 1337 3214 6786 9250 2119 2560 3888 17368 5543 15959 1384 3499 5949 2629 3234 5957 1190 5477 7980 2189 2971 8087 10788 2895 19499 4488 3142 16494 4845 5960 7062 5075 6884 8446 4781 16748 5282 2576 3849 2618 5504 1268 14519 3345 3924 2542 13273 3139 2826 4052 2929 685 958 15092 15824 3779 2405 11787 2614 3457 29030 6955 6681 7575 2423 2309 2461 3974 8125 813 2495 3701 2722 2450 2335 2778 4383 2451 4494 7313 5764 7064 10158 3269 3841 8688 5158 3480 2205 12236 9171 12461 2612 2074 12930 2522 7041 8859 5494 11610 2700 2486 1401 5192 2892 2157 1506 6881 3100 8953 4452 2218 657 14619 10143 2946 2220 2393 15870 12069 12422 10932 9900 4174 3815 2699 3397 2065 3159 3045 709 5377 2799 2056 2598 7042 18863 7178 2452 4075 11642 3083 4023 11439 2347 1700 2592 4594 3968 2645 6757
Last daily increment 37 32 55 99 54 122 163 70 348 470 100 10 276 75 40 53 131 433 613 41 88 50 27 75 16 186 122 125 214 69 415 127 167 154 84 351 54 167 33 64 47 51 76 180 57 108 96 178 215 49 249 25 113 145 116 25 42 51 44 157 8 22 219 28 203 142 15 101 320 94 26 150 45 111 20 115 108 60 158 306 37 32 47 126 26 41 102 73 95 87 69 36 57 542 221 25 25 29 67 38 63 30 16 84 44 60 37 158 34 353 125 47 57 100 50 339 112 36 344 67 79 104 100 412 52 138 23 339 23 75 249 79 35 74 65 212 87 33 64 85 82 87 37 251 64 199 155 56 339 59 39 147 174 178 83 17 128 44 386 16 28 172 23 30 89 38 302 31 54 37 59 40 518 6 36 19 61 51 38 29 77 59 19 21 148 104 93 147 51 32 53 64 50 136 54 148 25 97 538 30 22 93 41 65 26 70 121 26 81 76 46 18 52 120 8 18 56 198 32 87 88 40 83 142 79 183 77 57 97 94 44 85 22 20 52 18 102 36 91 21 46 64 51 157 161 316 57 153 56 53 22 85 109 58 66 30 37 92 62 149 164 122 62 24 70 20 48 102 64 35 87 98 321 102 14 12 422 76 30 85 60 109 130 422 210 88 49 134 81 97 23 129 65 8 37 35 37 47 153 97 123 62 140 145 36 120 150 28 64 38 147 28 40 103
Last week 197 169 369 484 300 876 924 315 1809 2620 452 60 1570 411 212 267 918 2236 3268 213 455 225 145 403 181 864 615 831 1154 329 1995 771 894 781 376 2329 260 940 178 384 376 311 331 1184 270 745 400 859 1220 326 1306 145 609 808 776 141 222 328 233 683 55 129 644 167 1171 819 69 463 2586 653 231 868 209 573 97 546 458 533 845 1949 192 172 297 736 145 192 498 361 397 452 284 231 641 2997 1452 414 160 160 298 169 593 171 104 455 238 335 163 818 209 1861 607 238 242 894 212 1895 760 177 1728 301 336 730 515 2405 291 800 103 2091 188 329 1707 376 196 365 321 1249 651 182 333 519 873 607 249 1930 299 1300 911 370 1920 247 277 862 957 1003 411 89 870 229 2084 107 194 1392 105 178 475 282 1867 308 266 206 368 239 2961 122 155 138 391 255 210 195 415 296 100 173 783 585 400 634 314 179 348 443 322 686 446 829 236 605 2752 153 147 642 175 936 109 409 721 132 504 446 255 302 231 616 58 85 446 1050 208 342 466 144 651 798 315 949 478 332 444 376 227 459 83 151 363 144 376 297 391 146 256 298 276 783 1405 1877 510 724 293 299 178 426 553 340 502 195 211 469 399 1302 914 536 361 124 467 146 218 506 277 163 589 644 1845 671 73 62 2627 491 447 449 324 549 769 2055 1879 500 273 713 397 571 173 596 445 106 220 216 221 386 1077 549 682 298 708 673 395 622 1020 160 295 245 727 156 184 490
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --03-23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- --09-27 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- --04-22 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-19 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- --09-27 --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-1710-13 -- -- -- -- -- --10-1310-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 95 56 70 70 132 40 68 56 71 71 55 75 75 529 51 67 65 74 41 42 67 27 138 58
Low between peaks 9 27 33 32 1 21 22 22 7 14 61 15 21 12 19 14 2 30 17

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-27 to 2021-01-02

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-26 1069 1878 4683 2586 4594 5624 5453 1793 10701 13958 12163 2256 9886 3580 4756 4525 5754 11499 51782 4006 11344 6123 3177 16917 3142 9397 3176 32929 4689 2482 11836 4037 6223 18107 2449 11949 3155 4542 4019 5956 11389 9488 2736 6782 3594 6079 3503 4008 7275 7547 6031 2093 3862 11544 11349 3315 1882 1975 4673 4073 1309 1644 5180 1406 23261 11560 1598 2565 13402 3826 4218 5236 1873 9966 1545 14418 4394 4887 13555 13198 1156 2344 2299 3976 4423 2268 11893 5003 3418 2283 2301 1435 3638 14678 6826 2453 3542 3249 2184 1942 4237 1452 2845 8986 4501 3394 1623 5318 2332 9800 3642 5504 2177 6319 2721 9742 3322 4209 9716 1726 5099 3123 3294 15273 3277 3960 2812 11666 3234 2383 10045 2939 4561 3067 1507 7330 4444 2513 3178 12627 6266 22084 8613 11154 5106 40594 21482 1861 9458 3493 4637 26780 9343 7157 1587 1208 35105 3829 15463 1557 1513 7422 1055 1337 3214 6786 9250 2119 2560 3888 17368 5543 15959 1384 3499 5949 2629 3234 5957 1190 5477 7980 2189 2971 8087 10788 2895 19499 4488 3142 16494 4845 5960 7062 5075 6884 8446 4781 16748 5282 2576 3849 2618 5504 1268 14519 3345 3924 2542 13273 3139 2826 4052 2929 685 958 15092 15824 3779 2405 11787 2614 3457 29030 6955 6681 7575 2423 2309 2461 3974 8125 813 2495 3701 2722 2450 2335 2778 4383 2451 4494 7313 5764 7064 10158 3269 3841 8688 5158 3480 2205 12236 9171 12461 2612 2074 12930 2522 7041 8859 5494 11610 2700 2486 1401 5192 2892 2157 1506 6881 3100 8953 4452 2218 657 14619 10143 2946 2220 2393 15870 12069 12422 10932 9900 4174 3815 2699 3397 2065 3159 3045 709 5377 2799 2056 2598 7042 18863 7178 2452 4075 11642 3083 4023 11439 2347 1700 2592 4594 3968 2645 6757
2020-12-27 1102 1899 4730 2712 4636 5708 5584 1888 11220 14900 12230 2265 10210 3652 4803 4570 5917 11630 52260 4038 11350 6137 3202 16960 3197 9490 3342 33030 4978 2550 12450 4214 6553 18120 2514 12530 3185 4816 4034 5956 11420 9524 2866 7287 3600 6223 3524 4121 7677 7588 6178 2115 4075 11700 11460 3338 1914 2024 4695 4262 1318 1660 5180 1434 23340 11700 1608 2723 13530 3976 4228 5418 1923 10050 1557 14500 4479 5023 13670 13610 1174 2378 2370 4171 4450 2304 11970 5037 3463 2484 2353 1510 3703 15460 7074 2533 3556 3271 2267 1968 4296 1478 2859 9067 4530 3442 1658 5458 2359 10080 3837 5504 2222 6342 2721 10340 3433 4232 10290 1817 5144 3248 3340 15860 3323 4257 2829 12250 3261 2387 10460 3041 4590 3129 1584 7716 4591 2540 3254 12710 6410 22190 8665 11290 5147 40630 21590 1953 10210 3524 4685 26940 9530 7321 1697 1219 35240 3863 15810 1572 1534 7683 1082 1375 3290 6828 9650 2166 2612 3921 17430 5581 16730 1403 3522 5970 2695 3271 5997 1212 5516 7997 2204 2995 8260 10820 2966 19590 4509 3167 16570 4914 6005 7165 5121 7122 8509 4917 17450 5307 2601 3901 2642 5592 1279 14570 3544 3946 2577 13380 3211 2875 4082 3164 693 969 15150 15990 3812 2462 11850 2634 3612 29150 6976 6846 7575 2472 2445 2468 4005 8165 832 2519 3728 2738 2450 2381 2833 4409 2489 4562 7366 5814 7121 10720 3374 3956 8693 5193 3519 2257 12330 9228 12640 2625 2115 12960 2585 7244 9060 5585 11610 2710 2572 1407 5229 3045 2265 1535 6984 3255 9280 4559 2229 660 14950 10240 2946 2331 2464 15900 12130 12820 11100 9900 4216 3939 2735 3452 2091 3244 3154 709 5379 2837 2063 2664 7314 18900 7278 2502 4189 11760 3204 4155 11630 2373 1784 2626 4736 3991 2670 6840
2020-12-28 1133 1920 4776 2834 4677 5795 5766 1979 11600 15850 12290 2273 10510 3722 4854 4615 6149 11980 52880 4069 11460 6175 3227 17040 3251 9620 3486 33190 5257 2613 12930 4394 6819 18230 2579 13130 3214 5072 4073 5999 11520 9598 2954 7658 3648 6403 3635 4273 7966 7629 6327 2137 4239 11920 11570 3360 1946 2072 4730 4445 1328 1675 5300 1461 23410 11850 1618 2862 13850 4114 4282 5590 1969 10130 1568 14620 4583 5156 13780 14020 1193 2417 2438 4357 4476 2338 12040 5120 3511 2654 2404 1580 3787 16230 7388 2605 3593 3293 2340 1994 4411 1502 2873 9146 4577 3489 1701 5595 2387 10420 4005 5542 2264 6443 2758 10920 3547 4254 10750 1916 5186 3376 3420 16400 3369 4491 2850 12930 3289 2432 10860 3139 4618 3186 1655 8059 4731 2568 3313 12790 6573 22320 8728 11570 5185 40860 21800 2027 10840 3555 4734 27110 9710 7482 1805 1229 35440 3895 16150 1586 1556 7973 1106 1410 3364 6871 10070 2216 2661 3970 17480 5620 17550 1423 3545 5991 2758 3308 6036 1248 5609 8044 2219 3019 8459 10910 3036 19690 4530 3192 16630 4983 6049 7264 5169 7310 8558 5042 18140 5331 2626 3999 2664 5735 1289 14650 3709 3968 2658 13490 3254 2927 4111 3404 701 981 15210 16190 3845 2533 11940 2653 3752 29320 7041 7013 7630 2521 2576 2522 4054 8255 850 2544 3756 2755 2482 2427 2904 4435 2526 4628 7420 5932 7252 11320 3471 4097 8753 5258 3567 2309 12440 9285 12770 2638 2151 13050 2647 7478 9270 5673 11680 2735 2661 1414 5266 3194 2356 1562 7090 3405 9680 4662 2240 664 15420 10330 2992 2438 2548 16020 12190 13220 11370 9990 4257 4064 2802 3575 2117 3323 3267 736 5416 2875 2070 2740 7562 19020 7379 2556 4326 11880 3282 4291 11820 2400 1867 2666 4879 4014 2695 6923
2020-12-29 1163 1941 4822 2964 4717 5881 5916 2071 11980 16840 12350 2282 10760 3792 4900 4658 6375 12300 53490 4099 11530 6212 3251 17100 3297 9770 3636 33340 5548 2676 13460 4551 7071 18310 2642 13750 3243 5333 4105 6037 11580 9653 3068 8019 3691 6560 3739 4445 8273 7668 6475 2158 4383 12110 11680 3382 1978 2122 4774 4640 1336 1690 5435 1489 23500 11990 1627 3031 14230 4249 4332 5767 2014 10210 1580 14720 4669 5267 13890 14460 1212 2446 2506 4517 4502 2370 12110 5188 3560 2815 2454 1642 3850 17050 7700 2680 3622 3315 2416 2019 4524 1527 2887 9229 4628 3534 1740 5731 2413 10760 4183 5576 2305 6543 2780 11490 3666 4275 11270 2010 5229 3500 3507 16900 3413 4750 2868 13630 3315 2474 11280 3232 4645 3242 1725 8451 4857 2595 3369 12860 6743 22440 8791 11850 5222 41080 21930 2105 11470 3586 4782 27260 9890 7640 1920 1240 35600 3929 16480 1601 1576 8263 1128 1446 3437 6912 10410 2263 2709 4005 17540 5657 18350 1442 3567 6011 2821 3345 6075 1281 5679 8104 2234 3042 8631 11040 3105 19780 4554 3215 16700 5050 6092 7361 5215 7496 8606 5155 18860 5355 2650 4118 2687 5883 1300 14730 3842 3988 2731 13570 3285 2979 4139 3630 709 994 15260 16380 3877 2595 12030 2671 3893 29460 7092 7180 7683 2569 2711 2579 4092 8345 868 2567 3785 2771 2511 2473 2976 4461 2561 4697 7472 6059 7372 11930 3579 4230 8799 5322 3607 2362 12530 9340 12860 2652 2190 13140 2708 7728 9480 5762 11740 2762 2749 1422 5302 3328 2446 1589 7191 3565 10050 4763 2250 668 15880 10410 3033 2547 2626 16130 12250 13610 11640 10060 4299 4187 2880 3667 2142 3407 3360 754 5458 2912 2079 2819 7821 19110 7480 2595 4461 11980 3359 4416 12000 2426 1961 2698 5025 4036 2718 7004
2020-12-30 1193 1961 4867 3097 4757 5970 6075 2161 12390 17440 12410 2290 10930 3861 4933 4701 6619 12620 54050 4130 11590 6250 3275 17160 3328 9920 3777 33490 5836 2736 13980 4712 7309 18400 2705 14390 3271 5591 4133 6088 11630 9701 3173 8415 3730 6693 3840 4606 8606 7707 6626 2180 4516 12250 11790 3404 2010 2173 4817 4837 1345 1705 5576 1518 23580 12130 1637 3172 14510 4382 4364 5947 2059 10290 1591 14800 4767 5377 14000 14990 1232 2476 2565 4670 4529 2401 12180 5252 3609 2966 2504 1698 3896 17870 8012 2740 3647 3336 2490 2043 4651 1551 2901 9316 4669 3579 1774 5868 2441 11110 4308 5609 2346 6623 2817 12080 3790 4296 11760 2076 5270 3591 3576 17400 3457 5002 2889 13950 3342 2513 11700 3295 4672 3297 1793 8661 4977 2622 3431 12940 6899 22530 8854 12100 5257 41290 22090 2181 12090 3616 4831 27410 10070 7799 2040 1250 35740 3961 16810 1615 1598 8512 1149 1483 3513 6953 10770 2312 2756 4048 17600 5694 19140 1462 3589 6032 2883 3381 6114 1307 5740 8158 2249 3066 8817 11140 3175 19870 4577 3239 16770 5117 6135 7458 5262 7685 8651 5253 19600 5379 2674 4189 2710 6008 1311 14800 3982 4009 2773 13650 3322 3033 4166 3872 716 1007 15300 16560 3909 2665 12120 2690 4001 29580 7136 7350 7734 2618 2843 2625 4138 8431 886 2591 3813 2788 2531 2519 3047 4486 2597 4758 7525 6168 7468 12480 3650 4356 8844 5374 3628 2416 12620 9395 12950 2666 2230 13210 2769 7934 9650 5850 11790 2780 2811 1429 5338 3455 2536 1616 7295 3728 10360 4866 2261 672 16330 10500 3082 2656 2682 16210 12310 14000 11870 10160 4340 4312 2941 3745 2167 3489 3451 767 5491 2950 2088 2881 8081 19200 7584 2652 4598 12100 3432 4523 12170 2452 2045 2735 5174 4058 2741 7085
2020-12-31 1223 1982 4913 3235 4797 6059 6204 2253 12740 18490 12470 2299 11230 3932 4957 4744 6944 12810 54560 4160 11640 6278 3300 17220 3352 10050 3907 33590 6132 2796 14520 4841 7646 18490 2769 15060 3300 5913 4152 6122 11690 9734 3283 8841 3776 6811 3970 4742 9060 7746 6780 2202 4756 12350 11900 3427 2042 2226 4852 5044 1353 1720 5762 1547 23660 12270 1646 3356 14880 4517 4392 6132 2103 10380 1602 14870 4869 5458 14110 15220 1253 2501 2644 4839 4555 2432 12260 5289 3659 3143 2555 1799 3966 18730 8270 2806 3667 3357 2572 2068 4772 1575 2914 9386 4714 3625 1799 6007 2468 11330 4510 5658 2386 6691 2857 12750 3918 4317 12460 2207 5311 3689 3635 17800 3502 5269 2902 14780 3369 2550 12140 3368 4700 3353 1861 9078 5101 2649 3473 13020 7075 22610 8919 12340 5292 41500 22210 2260 12890 3646 4879 27550 10250 7959 2166 1261 35860 3994 17150 1629 1619 8788 1163 1520 3589 6995 11070 2362 2802 4076 17650 5731 20100 1482 3612 6052 2946 3418 6154 1333 5807 8191 2263 3089 9000 11220 3247 19960 4600 3262 16830 5184 6178 7555 5310 7891 8691 5352 20370 5403 2699 4289 2732 6149 1321 14860 4108 4030 2804 13710 3350 3088 4193 4251 724 1020 15360 16750 3942 2719 12190 2708 4125 29690 7176 7524 7780 2666 2977 2671 4172 8494 905 2615 3842 2806 2567 2566 3102 4512 2633 4820 7578 6286 7551 13290 3738 4474 8880 5402 3657 2471 12700 9451 13030 2680 2264 13270 2831 8140 9780 5938 11840 2794 2890 1437 5374 3609 2628 1644 7400 3898 10670 4968 2271 677 16760 10590 3110 2767 2738 16270 12370 14390 12110 10250 4382 4439 2997 3841 2193 3573 3535 781 5524 2988 2096 2948 8348 19260 7689 2693 4778 12220 3497 4667 12310 2478 2151 2766 5328 4080 2764 7167
2021-01-01 1254 2003 4959 3380 4837 6150 6295 2346 12940 19220 12530 2307 11350 4003 4976 4788 7141 12940 54980 4191 11680 6301 3324 17270 3365 10130 3963 33670 6437 2857 15090 4960 7838 18530 2834 15760 3329 6103 4172 6124 11720 9758 3351 9026 3807 6883 4066 4852 9295 7785 6936 2224 4864 12460 12010 3449 2075 2279 4872 5259 1362 1735 5864 1577 23750 12420 1656 3460 15030 4653 4407 6322 2147 10460 1613 14920 4927 5522 14220 15480 1274 2521 2675 4886 4582 2463 12330 5317 3709 3228 2607 1836 3997 19630 8403 2851 3679 3379 2618 2093 4827 1600 2928 9431 4730 3670 1819 6147 2496 11530 4628 5677 2427 6717 2874 13200 4051 4338 12870 2277 5352 3726 3670 18080 3547 5550 2910 15260 3396 2556 12590 3407 4727 3410 1931 9299 5200 2677 3491 13100 7156 22660 8952 12460 5328 41610 22310 2343 13330 3677 4928 27660 10440 8121 2300 1271 35940 4028 17480 1644 1641 8935 1172 1557 3668 7037 11330 2413 2848 4096 17710 5769 20730 1502 3634 6073 3009 3454 6193 1349 5848 8214 2278 3113 9130 11270 3321 20050 4624 3286 16850 5252 6221 7653 5357 7993 8720 5421 21180 5427 2723 4307 2755 6215 1331 14890 4190 4051 2804 13760 3356 3144 4220 4480 731 1032 15400 16880 3974 2758 12250 2726 4215 29780 7202 7702 7807 2715 3114 2702 4187 8534 924 2640 3870 2823 2567 2613 3131 4538 2670 4871 7631 6350 7561 13750 3782 4563 8906 5433 3677 2528 12750 9507 13080 2693 2287 13310 2893 8278 9860 6027 11870 2807 2945 1445 5410 3673 2724 1672 7505 4075 10900 5072 2281 681 17110 10650 3110 2882 2776 16310 12430 14780 12210 10290 4424 4567 3035 3897 2218 3658 3593 785 5543 3026 2105 2989 8624 19300 7795 2734 4883 12290 3515 4743 12450 2504 2210 2771 5486 4102 2787 7249
2021-01-02 1285 2023 5005 3531 4877 6242 6439 2441 13320 19620 12590 2316 11700 4074 5014 4831 7240 13320 55450 4222 11750 6339 3349 17330 3381 10290 4089 33780 6754 2918 15680 5076 7853 18650 2899 16500 3357 6246 4197 6178 11770 9797 3405 9129 3847 6978 4122 5012 9490 7824 7095 2246 4867 12580 12120 3471 2107 2334 4909 5484 1371 1751 6026 1607 23830 12560 1665 3552 15360 4793 4426 6519 2192 10540 1625 15020 5022 5586 14330 15830 1295 2544 2706 5016 4608 2494 12400 5372 3760 3262 2658 1852 4079 20570 8600 2884 3701 3401 2675 2118 4890 1625 2942 9510 4764 3716 1849 6290 2524 11850 4668 5713 2467 6820 2908 13340 4189 4360 13190 2335 5394 3833 3752 18450 3592 5846 2928 15570 3423 2613 13060 3450 4754 3467 2002 9511 5285 2705 3557 13180 7242 22730 8978 12710 5363 41770 22450 2428 13650 3707 4977 27770 10630 8284 2442 1282 36050 4061 17820 1659 1663 9120 1188 1596 3748 7078 11630 2464 2894 4125 17770 5807 21220 1522 3656 6094 3074 3491 6233 1376 5908 8259 2293 3137 9233 11360 3396 20130 4648 3310 16910 5320 6264 7751 5405 8088 8746 5510 22010 5451 2748 4387 2778 6287 1342 14950 4322 4072 2883 13820 3406 3202 4248 4583 739 1045 15450 17040 4007 2829 12320 2745 4295 29900 7259 7885 7864 2765 3256 2774 4222 8603 943 2664 3899 2840 2644 2661 3206 4564 2706 4917 7685 6485 7731 13920 3844 4698 8950 5476 3700 2586 12840 9563 13150 2707 2321 13380 2956 8438 10000 6117 11920 2825 3008 1453 5446 3765 2823 1700 7612 4261 11180 5176 2292 686 17470 10710 3144 3001 2822 16400 12490 15180 12430 10350 4466 4698 3101 3978 2243 3746 3653 791 5573 3065 2114 3031 8909 19380 7903 2778 4979 12410 3557 4863 12590 2530 2276 2807 5650 4124 2810 7331

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-27 to 2021-01-02

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-12-26 1069 1878 4683 2586 4594 5624 5453 1793 10701 13958 12163 2256 9886 3580 4756 4525 5754 11499 51782 4006 11344 6123 3177 16917 3142 9397 3176 32929 4689 2482 11836 4037 6223 18107 2449 11949 3155 4542 4019 5956 11389 9488 2736 6782 3594 6079 3503 4008 7275 7547 6031 2093 3862 11544 11349 3315 1882 1975 4673 4073 1309 1644 5180 1406 23261 11560 1598 2565 13402 3826 4218 5236 1873 9966 1545 14418 4394 4887 13555 13198 1156 2344 2299 3976 4423 2268 11893 5003 3418 2283 2301 1435 3638 14678 6826 2453 3542 3249 2184 1942 4237 1452 2845 8986 4501 3394 1623 5318 2332 9800 3642 5504 2177 6319 2721 9742 3322 4209 9716 1726 5099 3123 3294 15273 3277 3960 2812 11666 3234 2383 10045 2939 4561 3067 1507 7330 4444 2513 3178 12627 6266 22084 8613 11154 5106 40594 21482 1861 9458 3493 4637 26780 9343 7157 1587 1208 35105 3829 15463 1557 1513 7422 1055 1337 3214 6786 9250 2119 2560 3888 17368 5543 15959 1384 3499 5949 2629 3234 5957 1190 5477 7980 2189 2971 8087 10788 2895 19499 4488 3142 16494 4845 5960 7062 5075 6884 8446 4781 16748 5282 2576 3849 2618 5504 1268 14519 3345 3924 2542 13273 3139 2826 4052 2929 685 958 15092 15824 3779 2405 11787 2614 3457 29030 6955 6681 7575 2423 2309 2461 3974 8125 813 2495 3701 2722 2450 2335 2778 4383 2451 4494 7313 5764 7064 10158 3269 3841 8688 5158 3480 2205 12236 9171 12461 2612 2074 12930 2522 7041 8859 5494 11610 2700 2486 1401 5192 2892 2157 1506 6881 3100 8953 4452 2218 657 14619 10143 2946 2220 2393 15870 12069 12422 10932 9900 4174 3815 2699 3397 2065 3159 3045 709 5377 2799 2056 2598 7042 18863 7178 2452 4075 11642 3083 4023 11439 2347 1700 2592 4594 3968 2645 6757
2020-12-27 1105 1904 4730 2670 4633 5743 5592 1846 11000 14400 12230 2262 10140 3646 4788 4563 5882 11790 52280 4039 11410 6153 3194 16970 3158 9520 3274 33030 4857 2531 12150 4167 6369 18200 2502 12290 3198 4685 4046 6000 11440 9531 2797 6950 3639 6182 3551 4147 7466 7587 6239 2119 3958 11670 11450 3335 1917 2024 4703 4190 1317 1660 5277 1429 23420 11690 1608 2648 13740 3909 4246 5364 1906 10050 1557 14500 4471 4969 13680 13510 1183 2379 2336 4106 4444 2299 11970 5054 3481 2369 2341 1470 3721 15160 7062 2502 3567 3272 2235 1967 4303 1478 2860 9052 4531 3443 1649 5441 2353 10090 3740 5531 2207 6451 2748 10030 3436 4236 10000 1777 5148 3237 3377 15670 3314 4095 2829 12020 3257 2423 10310 2997 4588 3121 1549 7532 4547 2540 3236 12700 6390 22160 8644 11400 5140 40760 21610 1923 9770 3530 4675 26910 9490 7309 1658 1218 35230 3861 15760 1570 1539 7633 1074 1364 3292 6820 9560 2158 2600 3915 17420 5578 16430 1398 3523 5966 2687 3270 5991 1217 5527 8022 2203 2994 8208 10870 2956 19600 4525 3166 16550 4909 6004 7152 5116 7018 8479 4882 17180 5306 2599 3946 2642 5639 1282 14570 3483 3944 2618 13340 3194 2866 4084 3025 695 972 15150 15970 3806 2459 11850 2639 3555 29170 7001 6843 7633 2471 2391 2523 4007 8188 825 2515 3755 2741 2502 2380 2837 4405 2492 4535 7355 5865 7257 10390 3346 3975 8727 5202 3504 2271 12320 9218 12530 2640 2108 13000 2577 7269 8990 5578 11660 2719 2549 1421 5228 2977 2206 1531 6967 3208 9190 4540 2229 665 14990 10210 2984 2297 2439 15930 12170 12740 11300 9960 4215 3926 2756 3477 2089 3247 3122 718 5401 2832 2085 2654 7175 18940 7277 2497 4178 11770 3131 4137 11570 2369 1748 2623 4709 3995 2671 6833
2020-12-28 1140 1927 4789 2770 4690 5932 5774 1900 11380 15000 12300 2269 10470 3717 4831 4616 6054 12230 52800 4071 11510 6187 3224 17040 3202 9650 3389 33170 5085 2608 12490 4335 6509 18340 2554 12740 3238 4875 4080 6067 11510 9590 2849 7153 3684 6357 3605 4324 7671 7636 6489 2146 4078 11830 11580 3360 1957 2078 4737 4315 1325 1680 5366 1463 23610 11830 1618 2728 14250 4054 4289 5540 1936 10140 1571 14620 4545 5103 13810 13880 1211 2415 2394 4272 4469 2328 12050 5123 3545 2471 2381 1517 3834 15750 7403 2588 3602 3295 2286 1995 4429 1520 2876 9118 4577 3496 1680 5604 2394 10460 3826 5564 2231 6638 2776 10410 3596 4261 10290 1831 5200 3414 3472 16240 3354 4249 2848 12460 3290 2461 10620 3067 4617 3181 1590 7773 4676 2570 3301 12800 6569 22290 8683 11840 5182 40990 21810 2012 10160 3565 4721 27050 9650 7545 1743 1229 35410 3901 16220 1584 1569 7906 1092 1394 3387 6865 9950 2212 2638 3962 17480 5621 17060 1420 3550 5991 2756 3308 6034 1261 5604 8065 2219 3022 8339 10950 3027 19690 4575 3191 16610 4988 6057 7275 5174 7163 8527 5000 17720 5331 2628 4084 2670 5822 1295 14660 3664 3965 2749 13440 3243 2927 4119 3162 704 984 15220 16150 3849 2513 11920 2660 3692 29320 7051 6992 7707 2524 2479 2592 4050 8268 841 2542 3820 2766 2563 2436 2909 4434 2539 4575 7409 5987 7598 10730 3445 4129 8784 5258 3545 2347 12410 9280 12650 2679 2142 13080 2657 7540 9170 5660 11720 2742 2645 1442 5268 3079 2251 1560 7084 3338 9660 4680 2239 676 15490 10280 3084 2389 2502 16040 12280 13170 11790 10050 4271 4052 2825 3605 2123 3329 3231 736 5435 2873 2123 2740 7383 19040 7395 2542 4281 11910 3210 4264 11730 2395 1792 2664 4851 4020 2697 6903
2020-12-29 1178 1950 4846 2865 4733 6111 5948 1956 11790 15630 12360 2276 10820 3787 4871 4655 6223 12670 53340 4103 11580 6220 3253 17110 3241 9800 3516 33300 5290 2663 12840 4503 6658 18450 2607 13200 3279 5056 4111 6131 11570 9638 2908 7360 3726 6515 3658 4516 7888 7683 6738 2177 4186 11970 11710 3384 1995 2133 4778 4443 1331 1699 5461 1489 23810 11970 1629 2832 14800 4187 4329 5710 1967 10230 1584 14720 4616 5231 13940 14300 1238 2443 2454 4422 4495 2357 12130 5186 3611 2568 2423 1560 3945 16340 7760 2677 3631 3318 2337 2028 4556 1552 2892 9187 4623 3548 1710 5772 2430 10840 3916 5595 2256 6829 2803 10790 3761 4289 10590 1884 5252 3594 3573 16790 3395 4405 2866 12940 3320 2500 10940 3132 4646 3234 1629 8027 4798 2601 3367 12890 6751 22400 8723 12290 5220 41200 21950 2107 10540 3600 4767 27180 9810 7753 1834 1242 35560 3937 16630 1599 1600 8183 1110 1425 3481 6914 10320 2266 2678 3997 17540 5661 17700 1443 3575 6015 2826 3345 6076 1302 5665 8115 2235 3053 8463 11060 3098 19790 4622 3215 16670 5066 6106 7392 5232 7312 8574 5118 18260 5355 2656 4246 2698 6038 1309 14730 3848 3987 2893 13530 3287 2990 4153 3280 713 995 15290 16300 3885 2563 11990 2684 3833 29450 7098 7149 7784 2578 2558 2664 4089 8349 856 2568 3884 2792 2624 2493 2980 4462 2581 4620 7462 6116 7949 11090 3547 4287 8829 5314 3583 2421 12490 9340 12740 2711 2178 13150 2730 7825 9350 5745 11770 2766 2743 1475 5305 3179 2297 1589 7196 3469 10100 4819 2252 687 15970 10360 3184 2468 2560 16150 12390 13600 12240 10120 4315 4179 2902 3711 2156 3414 3323 754 5475 2913 2160 2825 7593 19120 7514 2580 4386 12020 3292 4381 11900 2425 1839 2702 5003 4046 2724 6973
2020-12-30 1213 1973 4901 2954 4780 6289 6125 2013 12200 16040 12430 2284 11160 3857 4908 4691 6408 13120 53860 4135 11640 6255 3274 17170 3273 9940 3635 33440 5529 2717 13220 4680 6802 18560 2661 13680 3315 5240 4141 6202 11630 9684 2968 7584 3768 6657 3708 4699 8131 7729 6991 2205 4298 12100 11850 3409 2034 2188 4818 4573 1337 1719 5559 1521 23990 12110 1640 2900 15310 4325 4361 5897 1998 10320 1595 14800 4690 5358 14060 14760 1267 2473 2505 4565 4522 2384 12200 5249 3677 2649 2461 1604 4056 16930 8126 2759 3658 3341 2389 2061 4689 1578 2909 9256 4664 3601 1740 5934 2465 11240 3998 5625 2282 7014 2832 11190 3930 4317 10870 1932 5303 3769 3663 17340 3440 4564 2886 13310 3352 2536 11260 3187 4675 3296 1667 8266 4920 2630 3435 12970 6931 22500 8765 12700 5255 41400 22120 2184 10950 3637 4812 27320 9970 7939 1926 1261 35710 3975 17030 1614 1631 8455 1127 1456 3578 6960 10710 2322 2718 4040 17600 5700 18360 1466 3600 6038 2897 3383 6117 1337 5726 8163 2251 3079 8592 11150 3167 19880 4666 3240 16740 5146 6152 7509 5292 7461 8620 5232 18820 5379 2685 4354 2725 6219 1322 14810 4043 4008 2994 13610 3331 3049 4188 3414 721 1007 15360 16460 3919 2619 12060 2705 3962 29580 7143 7305 7856 2633 2647 2731 4132 8430 868 2595 3944 2817 2677 2552 3051 4488 2624 4658 7516 6234 8309 11390 3645 4449 8876 5366 3612 2498 12570 9400 12830 2743 2214 13230 2793 8094 9520 5831 11820 2785 2832 1498 5346 3276 2343 1617 7310 3602 10490 4956 2263 698 16430 10430 3288 2554 2608 16220 12500 14040 12570 10210 4357 4299 2972 3790 2188 3501 3413 768 5507 2955 2193 2896 7795 19200 7621 2628 4492 12140 3360 4479 12050 2455 1885 2741 5147 4072 2748 7041
2020-12-31 1244 1997 4951 3046 4818 6458 6290 2071 12600 16450 12490 2290 11510 3922 4941 4726 6595 13460 54350 4167 11690 6284 3299 17220 3305 10060 3749 33550 5826 2753 13560 4860 6943 18670 2715 14180 3340 5437 4165 6259 11680 9721 3024 7797 3810 6815 3752 4889 8368 7773 7238 2231 4411 12200 11980 3433 2070 2244 4848 4707 1344 1739 5664 1545 24130 12250 1649 2992 15870 4455 4388 6064 2029 10410 1607 14870 4769 5477 14190 15000 1296 2502 2548 4700 4547 2410 12260 5296 3745 2721 2497 1655 4173 17590 8466 2831 3676 3364 2443 2083 4818 1605 2921 9318 4707 3651 1764 6096 2500 11570 4091 5660 2305 7188 2861 11540 4098 4336 11210 1992 5346 3953 3755 17780 3480 4710 2900 13770 3382 2575 11600 3240 4704 3354 1705 8538 5041 2659 3501 13040 7118 22570 8802 13140 5294 41570 22240 2262 11330 3675 4859 27450 10110 8118 2025 1271 35830 4011 17430 1629 1663 8741 1142 1487 3671 7001 11100 2378 2752 4068 17650 5739 18990 1489 3626 6062 2970 3421 6158 1368 5788 8198 2266 3106 8716 11230 3231 19970 4709 3265 16800 5227 6195 7617 5352 7623 8664 5349 19370 5404 2713 4479 2753 6408 1336 14860 4245 4029 3098 13670 3381 3102 4220 3569 729 1020 15420 16600 3947 2662 12120 2722 4108 29700 7185 7446 7919 2688 2730 2797 4169 8500 879 2622 3991 2843 2738 2604 3106 4512 2665 4688 7570 6346 8677 11710 3746 4611 8908 5404 3644 2570 12640 9465 12920 2775 2249 13290 2864 8361 9710 5916 11870 2800 2925 1516 5383 3371 2390 1642 7412 3732 11000 5083 2273 707 16940 10510 3373 2632 2645 16270 12610 14440 12990 10290 4402 4423 3038 3901 2221 3590 3500 783 5534 2997 2225 2968 7977 19250 7726 2661 4607 12250 3437 4599 12170 2477 1935 2777 5284 4094 2774 7109
2021-01-01 1283 2020 5006 3136 4856 6639 6460 2132 12980 17040 12550 2295 11840 3984 4975 4761 6770 13780 54840 4198 11730 6315 3328 17280 3338 10190 3845 33670 6072 2803 13960 5043 7052 18760 2771 14710 3363 5651 4190 6313 11730 9759 3076 8005 3845 6945 3800 5107 8566 7816 7500 2254 4534 12310 12090 3458 2112 2302 4876 4845 1351 1759 5754 1569 24260 12380 1659 3068 16390 4582 4411 6254 2060 10490 1619 14940 4834 5598 14300 15310 1326 2528 2594 4808 4572 2438 12330 5344 3814 2770 2530 1696 4284 18260 8826 2908 3693 3388 2494 2113 4955 1623 2935 9378 4748 3702 1789 6285 2532 11930 4174 5688 2331 7350 2887 11970 4269 4353 11490 2044 5398 4143 3841 18350 3522 4880 2915 14200 3414 2604 11950 3298 4733 3401 1748 8796 5155 2693 3567 13110 7294 22650 8837 13630 5325 41700 22360 2345 11780 3709 4905 27570 10260 8321 2125 1281 35960 4051 17910 1644 1695 9000 1155 1520 3758 7044 11500 2436 2789 4099 17710 5776 19690 1513 3649 6084 3045 3459 6198 1401 5846 8234 2282 3132 8840 11300 3289 20060 4748 3291 16850 5309 6237 7711 5412 7756 8707 5472 20040 5429 2743 4591 2782 6572 1349 14900 4453 4051 3174 13750 3423 3158 4250 3692 737 1031 15490 16720 3974 2703 12180 2740 4251 29820 7228 7606 7993 2745 2821 2871 4196 8560 888 2649 4039 2869 2767 2661 3156 4538 2703 4720 7625 6464 9048 12100 3845 4777 8937 5446 3675 2650 12700 9528 13010 2807 2276 13350 2932 8601 9870 5997 11900 2817 3018 1530 5420 3451 2437 1667 7510 3861 11550 5244 2284 715 17390 10580 3465 2716 2694 16320 12730 14900 13360 10370 4443 4553 3103 3999 2259 3682 3589 795 5549 3040 2257 3038 8215 19300 7818 2697 4715 12340 3499 4702 12300 2506 1980 2806 5448 4116 2800 7174
2021-01-02 1311 2044 5061 3214 4891 6815 6633 2194 13340 17390 12620 2301 12280 4052 5016 4798 6927 14310 55310 4229 11780 6346 3354 17330 3369 10320 3955 33780 6262 2846 14310 5239 7138 18860 2827 15240 3385 5826 4217 6372 11780 9798 3125 8179 3880 7067 3836 5301 8764 7863 7772 2281 4622 12430 12230 3484 2153 2360 4909 4987 1357 1778 5857 1600 24420 12530 1669 3133 16960 4749 4435 6434 2092 10580 1632 15020 4901 5720 14410 15640 1356 2550 2634 4942 4598 2464 12390 5397 3884 2825 2580 1732 4414 18900 9185 2983 3717 3411 2546 2140 5069 1645 2949 9448 4786 3751 1817 6449 2564 12320 4242 5718 2359 7541 2916 12250 4465 4370 11700 2094 5442 4358 3931 19000 3565 5047 2932 14600 3444 2637 12290 3350 4763 3450 1790 9062 5272 2722 3640 13190 7463 22740 8869 13930 5358 41830 22490 2431 12150 3744 4953 27680 10410 8487 2228 1295 36080 4090 18360 1659 1728 9274 1171 1553 3858 7084 11930 2496 2826 4129 17770 5814 20240 1537 3675 6108 3122 3498 6244 1441 5905 8272 2298 3158 8950 11380 3363 20150 4791 3316 16910 5392 6282 7807 5475 7887 8750 5590 20660 5453 2772 4694 2810 6732 1363 14960 4677 4073 3300 13830 3462 3209 4283 3792 745 1042 15550 16850 4004 2752 12240 2756 4390 29940 7275 7758 8059 2803 2907 2940 4231 8628 900 2677 4092 2895 2830 2716 3230 4564 2739 4759 7680 6592 9489 12340 3947 4958 8977 5492 3710 2730 12780 9589 13100 2840 2307 13410 3007 8835 10040 6077 11940 2834 3127 1553 5460 3548 2486 1696 7633 3995 11980 5372 2294 721 17670 10640 3575 2790 2736 16380 12850 15420 13760 10440 4483 4687 3171 4074 2292 3777 3663 807 5571 3083 2282 3080 8404 19340 7912 2735 4824 12440 3579 4798 12430 2535 2027 2843 5618 4140 2824 7239

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.