COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-26

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-13	10-21	10-27	--	10-21	12-07	12-13	--	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	--	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-04	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-15	12-15	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	12-14	--	12-02	--	10-04	12-15	10-25	11-03	--	--	10-24	12-14	--	12-14	--	12-14	12-14	--	--	--	12-15	10-19	12-13	--	10-11	--	10-30	12-15	--	--	10-03	--	11-01	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	10-25	11-02	10-14	--	--	11-02	--	--	11-01	--	--	11-02	--	11-01	11-02	--	--	12-14	--	12-13	--	--	12-15	10-11	09-27	--	12-11	12-12	12-13	10-11	10-30	12-14	12-15	--	--	--	--	--	12-15	12-14	12-14	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	12-14	12-15	12-14	12-15	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	12-14	10-27	09-29	12-13	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	11-03	11-29	12-15	--	12-14	--	12-15	09-22	10-26	12-14	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	12-13	--	--	09-27	09-26	11-04	--	--	12-13	10-25	--	10-29	11-04	12-15	11-04	11-03	11-05	11-04	--	11-03	--	09-30	11-02	11-02	10-25	12-15	10-12	12-14	12-15	--	10-13	12-13	--	11-03	10-26	--	12-15	12-13	12-15	10-18	12-14	10-12	--	10-17	--	--	12-13	--	--	11-03	10-20	11-01	11-01	--	09-30	11-05	12-15	09-29	11-01	--	12-13	12-15	--	12-15	10-26	10-31	--	12-15	12-14	11-09	--	12-15	12-15	10-13	--	10-25	11-03	--	12-14	--	12-14	--	10-09	11-01	10-31	--	10-18	10-12	11-01	12-15	--	11-02	12-13	--	12-13	--	10-18	10-29	12-15	12-14	11-03	--	--	--	12-14	--	12-14	12-13	10-25	--	--	12-15	12-13	--	--	10-29	11-02	12-15	--	10-20	12-15	12-15	12-15	12-13	12-13	--	--	12-13	10-05	12-14	12-13	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	12-14	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment	54	29	82		62	182	179				191	28			77	72			626	63	163	98	55	234	50	154		441						322	65		71		57	68	159	141			51	162		188		69	257				151	53	52		62		23	23			293		20				53			165	28	249			252			38			108		225	77			47		136			95	55	75		32	133	32	41	129	59	54						44	50	189	44			65			75	179	99	543	60		43		52				59							285	180	360	152	387	86	541	255			60	107	161		201		24	610	61	455	29						91	368			54	392	85			31	159		49	109	40	91	122	35	58		131		609	67	40	257	86	64	132	164		101	122		94	43		38	204	20	197	171	64		199			40			17	237	231	85		183	36	157	435	112		95	72		69	66	141		32	73	82		57	71	70		76	89		338		102		118	82	57		183	125	194	45		160	81		190		177	46	104	28	90				124		422	147	47			97	101			261	162	429		135	55	134	70	116	39			26	91	45	57			320				137			186	37				65	41	130
Days since peak	13	66	60		66	19	13				74	83			61	63			52	54	69	76	60	75	41	11		58						59	12		24		83	11	62	53			63	12		12		12	12				11	68	13		76		57	11			84		55				53			62	54	73			54			55			54		55	54			12		13			11	76	90		15	14	13	76	57	12	11						11	12	12	53			61			53	12	11	12	11		59		54				76							54	12	60	88	13	80	90	55			53	27	11		12		11	95	61	12	53						54	13			90	91	52			13	62		58	52	11	52	53	51	52		53		87	54	54	62	11	75	12	11		74	13		53	61		11	13	11	69	12	75		70			13			53	67	55	55		87	51	11	88	55		13	11		11	61	56		11	12	47		11	11	74		62	53		12		12		78	55	56		69	75	55	11		54	13		13		69	58	11	12	53				12		12	13	62			11	13			58	54	11		67	11	11	11	13	13			13	82	12	13			66				83			12	55				76	53	81
Last total	1069	1878	4683	2586	4594	5624	5453	1793	10701	13958	12163	2256	9886	3580	4756	4525	5754	11499	51782	4006	11344	6123	3177	16917	3142	9397	3176	32929	4689	2482	11836	4037	6223	18107	2449	11949	3155	4542	4019	5956	11389	9488	2736	6782	3594	6079	3503	4008	7275	7547	6031	2093	3862	11544	11349	3315	1882	1975	4673	4073	1309	1644	5180	1406	23261	11560	1598	2565	13402	3826	4218	5236	1873	9966	1545	14418	4394	4887	13555	13198	1156	2344	2299	3976	4423	2268	11893	5003	3418	2283	2301	1435	3638	14678	6826	2453	3542	3249	2184	1942	4237	1452	2845	8986	4501	3394	1623	5318	2332	9800	3642	5504	2177	6319	2721	9742	3322	4209	9716	1726	5099	3123	3294	15273	3277	3960	2812	11666	3234	2383	10045	2939	4561	3067	1507	7330	4444	2513	3178	12627	6266	22084	8613	11154	5106	40594	21482	1861	9458	3493	4637	26780	9343	7157	1587	1208	35105	3829	15463	1557	1513	7422	1055	1337	3214	6786	9250	2119	2560	3888	17368	5543	15959	1384	3499	5949	2629	3234	5957	1190	5477	7980	2189	2971	8087	10788	2895	19499	4488	3142	16494	4845	5960	7062	5075	6884	8446	4781	16748	5282	2576	3849	2618	5504	1268	14519	3345	3924	2542	13273	3139	2826	4052	2929	685	958	15092	15824	3779	2405	11787	2614	3457	29030	6955	6681	7575	2423	2309	2461	3974	8125	813	2495	3701	2722	2450	2335	2778	4383	2451	4494	7313	5764	7064	10158	3269	3841	8688	5158	3480	2205	12236	9171	12461	2612	2074	12930	2522	7041	8859	5494	11610	2700	2486	1401	5192	2892	2157	1506	6881	3100	8953	4452	2218	657	14619	10143	2946	2220	2393	15870	12069	12422	10932	9900	4174	3815	2699	3397	2065	3159	3045	709	5377	2799	2056	2598	7042	18863	7178	2452	4075	11642	3083	4023	11439	2347	1700	2592	4594	3968	2645	6757
Last daily increment	37	32	55	99	54	122	163	70	348	470	100	10	276	75	40	53	131	433	613	41	88	50	27	75	16	186	122	125	214	69	415	127	167	154	84	351	54	167	33	64	47	51	76	180	57	108	96	178	215	49	249	25	113	145	116	25	42	51	44	157	8	22	219	28	203	142	15	101	320	94	26	150	45	111	20	115	108	60	158	306	37	32	47	126	26	41	102	73	95	87	69	36	57	542	221	25	25	29	67	38	63	30	16	84	44	60	37	158	34	353	125	47	57	100	50	339	112	36	344	67	79	104	100	412	52	138	23	339	23	75	249	79	35	74	65	212	87	33	64	85	82	87	37	251	64	199	155	56	339	59	39	147	174	178	83	17	128	44	386	16	28	172	23	30	89	38	302	31	54	37	59	40	518	6	36	19	61	51	38	29	77	59	19	21	148	104	93	147	51	32	53	64	50	136	54	148	25	97	538	30	22	93	41	65	26	70	121	26	81	76	46	18	52	120	8	18	56	198	32	87	88	40	83	142	79	183	77	57	97	94	44	85	22	20	52	18	102	36	91	21	46	64	51	157	161	316	57	153	56	53	22	85	109	58	66	30	37	92	62	149	164	122	62	24	70	20	48	102	64	35	87	98	321	102	14	12	422	76	30	85	60	109	130	422	210	88	49	134	81	97	23	129	65	8	37	35	37	47	153	97	123	62	140	145	36	120	150	28	64	38	147	28	40	103
Last week	197	169	369	484	300	876	924	315	1809	2620	452	60	1570	411	212	267	918	2236	3268	213	455	225	145	403	181	864	615	831	1154	329	1995	771	894	781	376	2329	260	940	178	384	376	311	331	1184	270	745	400	859	1220	326	1306	145	609	808	776	141	222	328	233	683	55	129	644	167	1171	819	69	463	2586	653	231	868	209	573	97	546	458	533	845	1949	192	172	297	736	145	192	498	361	397	452	284	231	641	2997	1452	414	160	160	298	169	593	171	104	455	238	335	163	818	209	1861	607	238	242	894	212	1895	760	177	1728	301	336	730	515	2405	291	800	103	2091	188	329	1707	376	196	365	321	1249	651	182	333	519	873	607	249	1930	299	1300	911	370	1920	247	277	862	957	1003	411	89	870	229	2084	107	194	1392	105	178	475	282	1867	308	266	206	368	239	2961	122	155	138	391	255	210	195	415	296	100	173	783	585	400	634	314	179	348	443	322	686	446	829	236	605	2752	153	147	642	175	936	109	409	721	132	504	446	255	302	231	616	58	85	446	1050	208	342	466	144	651	798	315	949	478	332	444	376	227	459	83	151	363	144	376	297	391	146	256	298	276	783	1405	1877	510	724	293	299	178	426	553	340	502	195	211	469	399	1302	914	536	361	124	467	146	218	506	277	163	589	644	1845	671	73	62	2627	491	447	449	324	549	769	2055	1879	500	273	713	397	571	173	596	445	106	220	216	221	386	1077	549	682	298	708	673	395	622	1020	160	295	245	727	156	184	490
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95									56					70							70										132				40											68												56																												71							71		55																																75	75					529																							51										67										65	74							41	42									67																																																		27															138									58
Low between peaks																			9									27												33										32															1																																								21							22		22																																7	14					61																							15																				21								12	19									14																																																		2															30									17

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-27 to 2021-01-02

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-26	1069	1878	4683	2586	4594	5624	5453	1793	10701	13958	12163	2256	9886	3580	4756	4525	5754	11499	51782	4006	11344	6123	3177	16917	3142	9397	3176	32929	4689	2482	11836	4037	6223	18107	2449	11949	3155	4542	4019	5956	11389	9488	2736	6782	3594	6079	3503	4008	7275	7547	6031	2093	3862	11544	11349	3315	1882	1975	4673	4073	1309	1644	5180	1406	23261	11560	1598	2565	13402	3826	4218	5236	1873	9966	1545	14418	4394	4887	13555	13198	1156	2344	2299	3976	4423	2268	11893	5003	3418	2283	2301	1435	3638	14678	6826	2453	3542	3249	2184	1942	4237	1452	2845	8986	4501	3394	1623	5318	2332	9800	3642	5504	2177	6319	2721	9742	3322	4209	9716	1726	5099	3123	3294	15273	3277	3960	2812	11666	3234	2383	10045	2939	4561	3067	1507	7330	4444	2513	3178	12627	6266	22084	8613	11154	5106	40594	21482	1861	9458	3493	4637	26780	9343	7157	1587	1208	35105	3829	15463	1557	1513	7422	1055	1337	3214	6786	9250	2119	2560	3888	17368	5543	15959	1384	3499	5949	2629	3234	5957	1190	5477	7980	2189	2971	8087	10788	2895	19499	4488	3142	16494	4845	5960	7062	5075	6884	8446	4781	16748	5282	2576	3849	2618	5504	1268	14519	3345	3924	2542	13273	3139	2826	4052	2929	685	958	15092	15824	3779	2405	11787	2614	3457	29030	6955	6681	7575	2423	2309	2461	3974	8125	813	2495	3701	2722	2450	2335	2778	4383	2451	4494	7313	5764	7064	10158	3269	3841	8688	5158	3480	2205	12236	9171	12461	2612	2074	12930	2522	7041	8859	5494	11610	2700	2486	1401	5192	2892	2157	1506	6881	3100	8953	4452	2218	657	14619	10143	2946	2220	2393	15870	12069	12422	10932	9900	4174	3815	2699	3397	2065	3159	3045	709	5377	2799	2056	2598	7042	18863	7178	2452	4075	11642	3083	4023	11439	2347	1700	2592	4594	3968	2645	6757
2020-12-27	1102	1899	4730	2712	4636	5708	5584	1888	11220	14900	12230	2265	10210	3652	4803	4570	5917	11630	52260	4038	11350	6137	3202	16960	3197	9490	3342	33030	4978	2550	12450	4214	6553	18120	2514	12530	3185	4816	4034	5956	11420	9524	2866	7287	3600	6223	3524	4121	7677	7588	6178	2115	4075	11700	11460	3338	1914	2024	4695	4262	1318	1660	5180	1434	23340	11700	1608	2723	13530	3976	4228	5418	1923	10050	1557	14500	4479	5023	13670	13610	1174	2378	2370	4171	4450	2304	11970	5037	3463	2484	2353	1510	3703	15460	7074	2533	3556	3271	2267	1968	4296	1478	2859	9067	4530	3442	1658	5458	2359	10080	3837	5504	2222	6342	2721	10340	3433	4232	10290	1817	5144	3248	3340	15860	3323	4257	2829	12250	3261	2387	10460	3041	4590	3129	1584	7716	4591	2540	3254	12710	6410	22190	8665	11290	5147	40630	21590	1953	10210	3524	4685	26940	9530	7321	1697	1219	35240	3863	15810	1572	1534	7683	1082	1375	3290	6828	9650	2166	2612	3921	17430	5581	16730	1403	3522	5970	2695	3271	5997	1212	5516	7997	2204	2995	8260	10820	2966	19590	4509	3167	16570	4914	6005	7165	5121	7122	8509	4917	17450	5307	2601	3901	2642	5592	1279	14570	3544	3946	2577	13380	3211	2875	4082	3164	693	969	15150	15990	3812	2462	11850	2634	3612	29150	6976	6846	7575	2472	2445	2468	4005	8165	832	2519	3728	2738	2450	2381	2833	4409	2489	4562	7366	5814	7121	10720	3374	3956	8693	5193	3519	2257	12330	9228	12640	2625	2115	12960	2585	7244	9060	5585	11610	2710	2572	1407	5229	3045	2265	1535	6984	3255	9280	4559	2229	660	14950	10240	2946	2331	2464	15900	12130	12820	11100	9900	4216	3939	2735	3452	2091	3244	3154	709	5379	2837	2063	2664	7314	18900	7278	2502	4189	11760	3204	4155	11630	2373	1784	2626	4736	3991	2670	6840
2020-12-28	1133	1920	4776	2834	4677	5795	5766	1979	11600	15850	12290	2273	10510	3722	4854	4615	6149	11980	52880	4069	11460	6175	3227	17040	3251	9620	3486	33190	5257	2613	12930	4394	6819	18230	2579	13130	3214	5072	4073	5999	11520	9598	2954	7658	3648	6403	3635	4273	7966	7629	6327	2137	4239	11920	11570	3360	1946	2072	4730	4445	1328	1675	5300	1461	23410	11850	1618	2862	13850	4114	4282	5590	1969	10130	1568	14620	4583	5156	13780	14020	1193	2417	2438	4357	4476	2338	12040	5120	3511	2654	2404	1580	3787	16230	7388	2605	3593	3293	2340	1994	4411	1502	2873	9146	4577	3489	1701	5595	2387	10420	4005	5542	2264	6443	2758	10920	3547	4254	10750	1916	5186	3376	3420	16400	3369	4491	2850	12930	3289	2432	10860	3139	4618	3186	1655	8059	4731	2568	3313	12790	6573	22320	8728	11570	5185	40860	21800	2027	10840	3555	4734	27110	9710	7482	1805	1229	35440	3895	16150	1586	1556	7973	1106	1410	3364	6871	10070	2216	2661	3970	17480	5620	17550	1423	3545	5991	2758	3308	6036	1248	5609	8044	2219	3019	8459	10910	3036	19690	4530	3192	16630	4983	6049	7264	5169	7310	8558	5042	18140	5331	2626	3999	2664	5735	1289	14650	3709	3968	2658	13490	3254	2927	4111	3404	701	981	15210	16190	3845	2533	11940	2653	3752	29320	7041	7013	7630	2521	2576	2522	4054	8255	850	2544	3756	2755	2482	2427	2904	4435	2526	4628	7420	5932	7252	11320	3471	4097	8753	5258	3567	2309	12440	9285	12770	2638	2151	13050	2647	7478	9270	5673	11680	2735	2661	1414	5266	3194	2356	1562	7090	3405	9680	4662	2240	664	15420	10330	2992	2438	2548	16020	12190	13220	11370	9990	4257	4064	2802	3575	2117	3323	3267	736	5416	2875	2070	2740	7562	19020	7379	2556	4326	11880	3282	4291	11820	2400	1867	2666	4879	4014	2695	6923
2020-12-29	1163	1941	4822	2964	4717	5881	5916	2071	11980	16840	12350	2282	10760	3792	4900	4658	6375	12300	53490	4099	11530	6212	3251	17100	3297	9770	3636	33340	5548	2676	13460	4551	7071	18310	2642	13750	3243	5333	4105	6037	11580	9653	3068	8019	3691	6560	3739	4445	8273	7668	6475	2158	4383	12110	11680	3382	1978	2122	4774	4640	1336	1690	5435	1489	23500	11990	1627	3031	14230	4249	4332	5767	2014	10210	1580	14720	4669	5267	13890	14460	1212	2446	2506	4517	4502	2370	12110	5188	3560	2815	2454	1642	3850	17050	7700	2680	3622	3315	2416	2019	4524	1527	2887	9229	4628	3534	1740	5731	2413	10760	4183	5576	2305	6543	2780	11490	3666	4275	11270	2010	5229	3500	3507	16900	3413	4750	2868	13630	3315	2474	11280	3232	4645	3242	1725	8451	4857	2595	3369	12860	6743	22440	8791	11850	5222	41080	21930	2105	11470	3586	4782	27260	9890	7640	1920	1240	35600	3929	16480	1601	1576	8263	1128	1446	3437	6912	10410	2263	2709	4005	17540	5657	18350	1442	3567	6011	2821	3345	6075	1281	5679	8104	2234	3042	8631	11040	3105	19780	4554	3215	16700	5050	6092	7361	5215	7496	8606	5155	18860	5355	2650	4118	2687	5883	1300	14730	3842	3988	2731	13570	3285	2979	4139	3630	709	994	15260	16380	3877	2595	12030	2671	3893	29460	7092	7180	7683	2569	2711	2579	4092	8345	868	2567	3785	2771	2511	2473	2976	4461	2561	4697	7472	6059	7372	11930	3579	4230	8799	5322	3607	2362	12530	9340	12860	2652	2190	13140	2708	7728	9480	5762	11740	2762	2749	1422	5302	3328	2446	1589	7191	3565	10050	4763	2250	668	15880	10410	3033	2547	2626	16130	12250	13610	11640	10060	4299	4187	2880	3667	2142	3407	3360	754	5458	2912	2079	2819	7821	19110	7480	2595	4461	11980	3359	4416	12000	2426	1961	2698	5025	4036	2718	7004
2020-12-30	1193	1961	4867	3097	4757	5970	6075	2161	12390	17440	12410	2290	10930	3861	4933	4701	6619	12620	54050	4130	11590	6250	3275	17160	3328	9920	3777	33490	5836	2736	13980	4712	7309	18400	2705	14390	3271	5591	4133	6088	11630	9701	3173	8415	3730	6693	3840	4606	8606	7707	6626	2180	4516	12250	11790	3404	2010	2173	4817	4837	1345	1705	5576	1518	23580	12130	1637	3172	14510	4382	4364	5947	2059	10290	1591	14800	4767	5377	14000	14990	1232	2476	2565	4670	4529	2401	12180	5252	3609	2966	2504	1698	3896	17870	8012	2740	3647	3336	2490	2043	4651	1551	2901	9316	4669	3579	1774	5868	2441	11110	4308	5609	2346	6623	2817	12080	3790	4296	11760	2076	5270	3591	3576	17400	3457	5002	2889	13950	3342	2513	11700	3295	4672	3297	1793	8661	4977	2622	3431	12940	6899	22530	8854	12100	5257	41290	22090	2181	12090	3616	4831	27410	10070	7799	2040	1250	35740	3961	16810	1615	1598	8512	1149	1483	3513	6953	10770	2312	2756	4048	17600	5694	19140	1462	3589	6032	2883	3381	6114	1307	5740	8158	2249	3066	8817	11140	3175	19870	4577	3239	16770	5117	6135	7458	5262	7685	8651	5253	19600	5379	2674	4189	2710	6008	1311	14800	3982	4009	2773	13650	3322	3033	4166	3872	716	1007	15300	16560	3909	2665	12120	2690	4001	29580	7136	7350	7734	2618	2843	2625	4138	8431	886	2591	3813	2788	2531	2519	3047	4486	2597	4758	7525	6168	7468	12480	3650	4356	8844	5374	3628	2416	12620	9395	12950	2666	2230	13210	2769	7934	9650	5850	11790	2780	2811	1429	5338	3455	2536	1616	7295	3728	10360	4866	2261	672	16330	10500	3082	2656	2682	16210	12310	14000	11870	10160	4340	4312	2941	3745	2167	3489	3451	767	5491	2950	2088	2881	8081	19200	7584	2652	4598	12100	3432	4523	12170	2452	2045	2735	5174	4058	2741	7085
2020-12-31	1223	1982	4913	3235	4797	6059	6204	2253	12740	18490	12470	2299	11230	3932	4957	4744	6944	12810	54560	4160	11640	6278	3300	17220	3352	10050	3907	33590	6132	2796	14520	4841	7646	18490	2769	15060	3300	5913	4152	6122	11690	9734	3283	8841	3776	6811	3970	4742	9060	7746	6780	2202	4756	12350	11900	3427	2042	2226	4852	5044	1353	1720	5762	1547	23660	12270	1646	3356	14880	4517	4392	6132	2103	10380	1602	14870	4869	5458	14110	15220	1253	2501	2644	4839	4555	2432	12260	5289	3659	3143	2555	1799	3966	18730	8270	2806	3667	3357	2572	2068	4772	1575	2914	9386	4714	3625	1799	6007	2468	11330	4510	5658	2386	6691	2857	12750	3918	4317	12460	2207	5311	3689	3635	17800	3502	5269	2902	14780	3369	2550	12140	3368	4700	3353	1861	9078	5101	2649	3473	13020	7075	22610	8919	12340	5292	41500	22210	2260	12890	3646	4879	27550	10250	7959	2166	1261	35860	3994	17150	1629	1619	8788	1163	1520	3589	6995	11070	2362	2802	4076	17650	5731	20100	1482	3612	6052	2946	3418	6154	1333	5807	8191	2263	3089	9000	11220	3247	19960	4600	3262	16830	5184	6178	7555	5310	7891	8691	5352	20370	5403	2699	4289	2732	6149	1321	14860	4108	4030	2804	13710	3350	3088	4193	4251	724	1020	15360	16750	3942	2719	12190	2708	4125	29690	7176	7524	7780	2666	2977	2671	4172	8494	905	2615	3842	2806	2567	2566	3102	4512	2633	4820	7578	6286	7551	13290	3738	4474	8880	5402	3657	2471	12700	9451	13030	2680	2264	13270	2831	8140	9780	5938	11840	2794	2890	1437	5374	3609	2628	1644	7400	3898	10670	4968	2271	677	16760	10590	3110	2767	2738	16270	12370	14390	12110	10250	4382	4439	2997	3841	2193	3573	3535	781	5524	2988	2096	2948	8348	19260	7689	2693	4778	12220	3497	4667	12310	2478	2151	2766	5328	4080	2764	7167
2021-01-01	1254	2003	4959	3380	4837	6150	6295	2346	12940	19220	12530	2307	11350	4003	4976	4788	7141	12940	54980	4191	11680	6301	3324	17270	3365	10130	3963	33670	6437	2857	15090	4960	7838	18530	2834	15760	3329	6103	4172	6124	11720	9758	3351	9026	3807	6883	4066	4852	9295	7785	6936	2224	4864	12460	12010	3449	2075	2279	4872	5259	1362	1735	5864	1577	23750	12420	1656	3460	15030	4653	4407	6322	2147	10460	1613	14920	4927	5522	14220	15480	1274	2521	2675	4886	4582	2463	12330	5317	3709	3228	2607	1836	3997	19630	8403	2851	3679	3379	2618	2093	4827	1600	2928	9431	4730	3670	1819	6147	2496	11530	4628	5677	2427	6717	2874	13200	4051	4338	12870	2277	5352	3726	3670	18080	3547	5550	2910	15260	3396	2556	12590	3407	4727	3410	1931	9299	5200	2677	3491	13100	7156	22660	8952	12460	5328	41610	22310	2343	13330	3677	4928	27660	10440	8121	2300	1271	35940	4028	17480	1644	1641	8935	1172	1557	3668	7037	11330	2413	2848	4096	17710	5769	20730	1502	3634	6073	3009	3454	6193	1349	5848	8214	2278	3113	9130	11270	3321	20050	4624	3286	16850	5252	6221	7653	5357	7993	8720	5421	21180	5427	2723	4307	2755	6215	1331	14890	4190	4051	2804	13760	3356	3144	4220	4480	731	1032	15400	16880	3974	2758	12250	2726	4215	29780	7202	7702	7807	2715	3114	2702	4187	8534	924	2640	3870	2823	2567	2613	3131	4538	2670	4871	7631	6350	7561	13750	3782	4563	8906	5433	3677	2528	12750	9507	13080	2693	2287	13310	2893	8278	9860	6027	11870	2807	2945	1445	5410	3673	2724	1672	7505	4075	10900	5072	2281	681	17110	10650	3110	2882	2776	16310	12430	14780	12210	10290	4424	4567	3035	3897	2218	3658	3593	785	5543	3026	2105	2989	8624	19300	7795	2734	4883	12290	3515	4743	12450	2504	2210	2771	5486	4102	2787	7249
2021-01-02	1285	2023	5005	3531	4877	6242	6439	2441	13320	19620	12590	2316	11700	4074	5014	4831	7240	13320	55450	4222	11750	6339	3349	17330	3381	10290	4089	33780	6754	2918	15680	5076	7853	18650	2899	16500	3357	6246	4197	6178	11770	9797	3405	9129	3847	6978	4122	5012	9490	7824	7095	2246	4867	12580	12120	3471	2107	2334	4909	5484	1371	1751	6026	1607	23830	12560	1665	3552	15360	4793	4426	6519	2192	10540	1625	15020	5022	5586	14330	15830	1295	2544	2706	5016	4608	2494	12400	5372	3760	3262	2658	1852	4079	20570	8600	2884	3701	3401	2675	2118	4890	1625	2942	9510	4764	3716	1849	6290	2524	11850	4668	5713	2467	6820	2908	13340	4189	4360	13190	2335	5394	3833	3752	18450	3592	5846	2928	15570	3423	2613	13060	3450	4754	3467	2002	9511	5285	2705	3557	13180	7242	22730	8978	12710	5363	41770	22450	2428	13650	3707	4977	27770	10630	8284	2442	1282	36050	4061	17820	1659	1663	9120	1188	1596	3748	7078	11630	2464	2894	4125	17770	5807	21220	1522	3656	6094	3074	3491	6233	1376	5908	8259	2293	3137	9233	11360	3396	20130	4648	3310	16910	5320	6264	7751	5405	8088	8746	5510	22010	5451	2748	4387	2778	6287	1342	14950	4322	4072	2883	13820	3406	3202	4248	4583	739	1045	15450	17040	4007	2829	12320	2745	4295	29900	7259	7885	7864	2765	3256	2774	4222	8603	943	2664	3899	2840	2644	2661	3206	4564	2706	4917	7685	6485	7731	13920	3844	4698	8950	5476	3700	2586	12840	9563	13150	2707	2321	13380	2956	8438	10000	6117	11920	2825	3008	1453	5446	3765	2823	1700	7612	4261	11180	5176	2292	686	17470	10710	3144	3001	2822	16400	12490	15180	12430	10350	4466	4698	3101	3978	2243	3746	3653	791	5573	3065	2114	3031	8909	19380	7903	2778	4979	12410	3557	4863	12590	2530	2276	2807	5650	4124	2810	7331

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-27 to 2021-01-02

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-26	1069	1878	4683	2586	4594	5624	5453	1793	10701	13958	12163	2256	9886	3580	4756	4525	5754	11499	51782	4006	11344	6123	3177	16917	3142	9397	3176	32929	4689	2482	11836	4037	6223	18107	2449	11949	3155	4542	4019	5956	11389	9488	2736	6782	3594	6079	3503	4008	7275	7547	6031	2093	3862	11544	11349	3315	1882	1975	4673	4073	1309	1644	5180	1406	23261	11560	1598	2565	13402	3826	4218	5236	1873	9966	1545	14418	4394	4887	13555	13198	1156	2344	2299	3976	4423	2268	11893	5003	3418	2283	2301	1435	3638	14678	6826	2453	3542	3249	2184	1942	4237	1452	2845	8986	4501	3394	1623	5318	2332	9800	3642	5504	2177	6319	2721	9742	3322	4209	9716	1726	5099	3123	3294	15273	3277	3960	2812	11666	3234	2383	10045	2939	4561	3067	1507	7330	4444	2513	3178	12627	6266	22084	8613	11154	5106	40594	21482	1861	9458	3493	4637	26780	9343	7157	1587	1208	35105	3829	15463	1557	1513	7422	1055	1337	3214	6786	9250	2119	2560	3888	17368	5543	15959	1384	3499	5949	2629	3234	5957	1190	5477	7980	2189	2971	8087	10788	2895	19499	4488	3142	16494	4845	5960	7062	5075	6884	8446	4781	16748	5282	2576	3849	2618	5504	1268	14519	3345	3924	2542	13273	3139	2826	4052	2929	685	958	15092	15824	3779	2405	11787	2614	3457	29030	6955	6681	7575	2423	2309	2461	3974	8125	813	2495	3701	2722	2450	2335	2778	4383	2451	4494	7313	5764	7064	10158	3269	3841	8688	5158	3480	2205	12236	9171	12461	2612	2074	12930	2522	7041	8859	5494	11610	2700	2486	1401	5192	2892	2157	1506	6881	3100	8953	4452	2218	657	14619	10143	2946	2220	2393	15870	12069	12422	10932	9900	4174	3815	2699	3397	2065	3159	3045	709	5377	2799	2056	2598	7042	18863	7178	2452	4075	11642	3083	4023	11439	2347	1700	2592	4594	3968	2645	6757
2020-12-27	1105	1904	4730	2670	4633	5743	5592	1846	11000	14400	12230	2262	10140	3646	4788	4563	5882	11790	52280	4039	11410	6153	3194	16970	3158	9520	3274	33030	4857	2531	12150	4167	6369	18200	2502	12290	3198	4685	4046	6000	11440	9531	2797	6950	3639	6182	3551	4147	7466	7587	6239	2119	3958	11670	11450	3335	1917	2024	4703	4190	1317	1660	5277	1429	23420	11690	1608	2648	13740	3909	4246	5364	1906	10050	1557	14500	4471	4969	13680	13510	1183	2379	2336	4106	4444	2299	11970	5054	3481	2369	2341	1470	3721	15160	7062	2502	3567	3272	2235	1967	4303	1478	2860	9052	4531	3443	1649	5441	2353	10090	3740	5531	2207	6451	2748	10030	3436	4236	10000	1777	5148	3237	3377	15670	3314	4095	2829	12020	3257	2423	10310	2997	4588	3121	1549	7532	4547	2540	3236	12700	6390	22160	8644	11400	5140	40760	21610	1923	9770	3530	4675	26910	9490	7309	1658	1218	35230	3861	15760	1570	1539	7633	1074	1364	3292	6820	9560	2158	2600	3915	17420	5578	16430	1398	3523	5966	2687	3270	5991	1217	5527	8022	2203	2994	8208	10870	2956	19600	4525	3166	16550	4909	6004	7152	5116	7018	8479	4882	17180	5306	2599	3946	2642	5639	1282	14570	3483	3944	2618	13340	3194	2866	4084	3025	695	972	15150	15970	3806	2459	11850	2639	3555	29170	7001	6843	7633	2471	2391	2523	4007	8188	825	2515	3755	2741	2502	2380	2837	4405	2492	4535	7355	5865	7257	10390	3346	3975	8727	5202	3504	2271	12320	9218	12530	2640	2108	13000	2577	7269	8990	5578	11660	2719	2549	1421	5228	2977	2206	1531	6967	3208	9190	4540	2229	665	14990	10210	2984	2297	2439	15930	12170	12740	11300	9960	4215	3926	2756	3477	2089	3247	3122	718	5401	2832	2085	2654	7175	18940	7277	2497	4178	11770	3131	4137	11570	2369	1748	2623	4709	3995	2671	6833
2020-12-28	1140	1927	4789	2770	4690	5932	5774	1900	11380	15000	12300	2269	10470	3717	4831	4616	6054	12230	52800	4071	11510	6187	3224	17040	3202	9650	3389	33170	5085	2608	12490	4335	6509	18340	2554	12740	3238	4875	4080	6067	11510	9590	2849	7153	3684	6357	3605	4324	7671	7636	6489	2146	4078	11830	11580	3360	1957	2078	4737	4315	1325	1680	5366	1463	23610	11830	1618	2728	14250	4054	4289	5540	1936	10140	1571	14620	4545	5103	13810	13880	1211	2415	2394	4272	4469	2328	12050	5123	3545	2471	2381	1517	3834	15750	7403	2588	3602	3295	2286	1995	4429	1520	2876	9118	4577	3496	1680	5604	2394	10460	3826	5564	2231	6638	2776	10410	3596	4261	10290	1831	5200	3414	3472	16240	3354	4249	2848	12460	3290	2461	10620	3067	4617	3181	1590	7773	4676	2570	3301	12800	6569	22290	8683	11840	5182	40990	21810	2012	10160	3565	4721	27050	9650	7545	1743	1229	35410	3901	16220	1584	1569	7906	1092	1394	3387	6865	9950	2212	2638	3962	17480	5621	17060	1420	3550	5991	2756	3308	6034	1261	5604	8065	2219	3022	8339	10950	3027	19690	4575	3191	16610	4988	6057	7275	5174	7163	8527	5000	17720	5331	2628	4084	2670	5822	1295	14660	3664	3965	2749	13440	3243	2927	4119	3162	704	984	15220	16150	3849	2513	11920	2660	3692	29320	7051	6992	7707	2524	2479	2592	4050	8268	841	2542	3820	2766	2563	2436	2909	4434	2539	4575	7409	5987	7598	10730	3445	4129	8784	5258	3545	2347	12410	9280	12650	2679	2142	13080	2657	7540	9170	5660	11720	2742	2645	1442	5268	3079	2251	1560	7084	3338	9660	4680	2239	676	15490	10280	3084	2389	2502	16040	12280	13170	11790	10050	4271	4052	2825	3605	2123	3329	3231	736	5435	2873	2123	2740	7383	19040	7395	2542	4281	11910	3210	4264	11730	2395	1792	2664	4851	4020	2697	6903
2020-12-29	1178	1950	4846	2865	4733	6111	5948	1956	11790	15630	12360	2276	10820	3787	4871	4655	6223	12670	53340	4103	11580	6220	3253	17110	3241	9800	3516	33300	5290	2663	12840	4503	6658	18450	2607	13200	3279	5056	4111	6131	11570	9638	2908	7360	3726	6515	3658	4516	7888	7683	6738	2177	4186	11970	11710	3384	1995	2133	4778	4443	1331	1699	5461	1489	23810	11970	1629	2832	14800	4187	4329	5710	1967	10230	1584	14720	4616	5231	13940	14300	1238	2443	2454	4422	4495	2357	12130	5186	3611	2568	2423	1560	3945	16340	7760	2677	3631	3318	2337	2028	4556	1552	2892	9187	4623	3548	1710	5772	2430	10840	3916	5595	2256	6829	2803	10790	3761	4289	10590	1884	5252	3594	3573	16790	3395	4405	2866	12940	3320	2500	10940	3132	4646	3234	1629	8027	4798	2601	3367	12890	6751	22400	8723	12290	5220	41200	21950	2107	10540	3600	4767	27180	9810	7753	1834	1242	35560	3937	16630	1599	1600	8183	1110	1425	3481	6914	10320	2266	2678	3997	17540	5661	17700	1443	3575	6015	2826	3345	6076	1302	5665	8115	2235	3053	8463	11060	3098	19790	4622	3215	16670	5066	6106	7392	5232	7312	8574	5118	18260	5355	2656	4246	2698	6038	1309	14730	3848	3987	2893	13530	3287	2990	4153	3280	713	995	15290	16300	3885	2563	11990	2684	3833	29450	7098	7149	7784	2578	2558	2664	4089	8349	856	2568	3884	2792	2624	2493	2980	4462	2581	4620	7462	6116	7949	11090	3547	4287	8829	5314	3583	2421	12490	9340	12740	2711	2178	13150	2730	7825	9350	5745	11770	2766	2743	1475	5305	3179	2297	1589	7196	3469	10100	4819	2252	687	15970	10360	3184	2468	2560	16150	12390	13600	12240	10120	4315	4179	2902	3711	2156	3414	3323	754	5475	2913	2160	2825	7593	19120	7514	2580	4386	12020	3292	4381	11900	2425	1839	2702	5003	4046	2724	6973
2020-12-30	1213	1973	4901	2954	4780	6289	6125	2013	12200	16040	12430	2284	11160	3857	4908	4691	6408	13120	53860	4135	11640	6255	3274	17170	3273	9940	3635	33440	5529	2717	13220	4680	6802	18560	2661	13680	3315	5240	4141	6202	11630	9684	2968	7584	3768	6657	3708	4699	8131	7729	6991	2205	4298	12100	11850	3409	2034	2188	4818	4573	1337	1719	5559	1521	23990	12110	1640	2900	15310	4325	4361	5897	1998	10320	1595	14800	4690	5358	14060	14760	1267	2473	2505	4565	4522	2384	12200	5249	3677	2649	2461	1604	4056	16930	8126	2759	3658	3341	2389	2061	4689	1578	2909	9256	4664	3601	1740	5934	2465	11240	3998	5625	2282	7014	2832	11190	3930	4317	10870	1932	5303	3769	3663	17340	3440	4564	2886	13310	3352	2536	11260	3187	4675	3296	1667	8266	4920	2630	3435	12970	6931	22500	8765	12700	5255	41400	22120	2184	10950	3637	4812	27320	9970	7939	1926	1261	35710	3975	17030	1614	1631	8455	1127	1456	3578	6960	10710	2322	2718	4040	17600	5700	18360	1466	3600	6038	2897	3383	6117	1337	5726	8163	2251	3079	8592	11150	3167	19880	4666	3240	16740	5146	6152	7509	5292	7461	8620	5232	18820	5379	2685	4354	2725	6219	1322	14810	4043	4008	2994	13610	3331	3049	4188	3414	721	1007	15360	16460	3919	2619	12060	2705	3962	29580	7143	7305	7856	2633	2647	2731	4132	8430	868	2595	3944	2817	2677	2552	3051	4488	2624	4658	7516	6234	8309	11390	3645	4449	8876	5366	3612	2498	12570	9400	12830	2743	2214	13230	2793	8094	9520	5831	11820	2785	2832	1498	5346	3276	2343	1617	7310	3602	10490	4956	2263	698	16430	10430	3288	2554	2608	16220	12500	14040	12570	10210	4357	4299	2972	3790	2188	3501	3413	768	5507	2955	2193	2896	7795	19200	7621	2628	4492	12140	3360	4479	12050	2455	1885	2741	5147	4072	2748	7041
2020-12-31	1244	1997	4951	3046	4818	6458	6290	2071	12600	16450	12490	2290	11510	3922	4941	4726	6595	13460	54350	4167	11690	6284	3299	17220	3305	10060	3749	33550	5826	2753	13560	4860	6943	18670	2715	14180	3340	5437	4165	6259	11680	9721	3024	7797	3810	6815	3752	4889	8368	7773	7238	2231	4411	12200	11980	3433	2070	2244	4848	4707	1344	1739	5664	1545	24130	12250	1649	2992	15870	4455	4388	6064	2029	10410	1607	14870	4769	5477	14190	15000	1296	2502	2548	4700	4547	2410	12260	5296	3745	2721	2497	1655	4173	17590	8466	2831	3676	3364	2443	2083	4818	1605	2921	9318	4707	3651	1764	6096	2500	11570	4091	5660	2305	7188	2861	11540	4098	4336	11210	1992	5346	3953	3755	17780	3480	4710	2900	13770	3382	2575	11600	3240	4704	3354	1705	8538	5041	2659	3501	13040	7118	22570	8802	13140	5294	41570	22240	2262	11330	3675	4859	27450	10110	8118	2025	1271	35830	4011	17430	1629	1663	8741	1142	1487	3671	7001	11100	2378	2752	4068	17650	5739	18990	1489	3626	6062	2970	3421	6158	1368	5788	8198	2266	3106	8716	11230	3231	19970	4709	3265	16800	5227	6195	7617	5352	7623	8664	5349	19370	5404	2713	4479	2753	6408	1336	14860	4245	4029	3098	13670	3381	3102	4220	3569	729	1020	15420	16600	3947	2662	12120	2722	4108	29700	7185	7446	7919	2688	2730	2797	4169	8500	879	2622	3991	2843	2738	2604	3106	4512	2665	4688	7570	6346	8677	11710	3746	4611	8908	5404	3644	2570	12640	9465	12920	2775	2249	13290	2864	8361	9710	5916	11870	2800	2925	1516	5383	3371	2390	1642	7412	3732	11000	5083	2273	707	16940	10510	3373	2632	2645	16270	12610	14440	12990	10290	4402	4423	3038	3901	2221	3590	3500	783	5534	2997	2225	2968	7977	19250	7726	2661	4607	12250	3437	4599	12170	2477	1935	2777	5284	4094	2774	7109
2021-01-01	1283	2020	5006	3136	4856	6639	6460	2132	12980	17040	12550	2295	11840	3984	4975	4761	6770	13780	54840	4198	11730	6315	3328	17280	3338	10190	3845	33670	6072	2803	13960	5043	7052	18760	2771	14710	3363	5651	4190	6313	11730	9759	3076	8005	3845	6945	3800	5107	8566	7816	7500	2254	4534	12310	12090	3458	2112	2302	4876	4845	1351	1759	5754	1569	24260	12380	1659	3068	16390	4582	4411	6254	2060	10490	1619	14940	4834	5598	14300	15310	1326	2528	2594	4808	4572	2438	12330	5344	3814	2770	2530	1696	4284	18260	8826	2908	3693	3388	2494	2113	4955	1623	2935	9378	4748	3702	1789	6285	2532	11930	4174	5688	2331	7350	2887	11970	4269	4353	11490	2044	5398	4143	3841	18350	3522	4880	2915	14200	3414	2604	11950	3298	4733	3401	1748	8796	5155	2693	3567	13110	7294	22650	8837	13630	5325	41700	22360	2345	11780	3709	4905	27570	10260	8321	2125	1281	35960	4051	17910	1644	1695	9000	1155	1520	3758	7044	11500	2436	2789	4099	17710	5776	19690	1513	3649	6084	3045	3459	6198	1401	5846	8234	2282	3132	8840	11300	3289	20060	4748	3291	16850	5309	6237	7711	5412	7756	8707	5472	20040	5429	2743	4591	2782	6572	1349	14900	4453	4051	3174	13750	3423	3158	4250	3692	737	1031	15490	16720	3974	2703	12180	2740	4251	29820	7228	7606	7993	2745	2821	2871	4196	8560	888	2649	4039	2869	2767	2661	3156	4538	2703	4720	7625	6464	9048	12100	3845	4777	8937	5446	3675	2650	12700	9528	13010	2807	2276	13350	2932	8601	9870	5997	11900	2817	3018	1530	5420	3451	2437	1667	7510	3861	11550	5244	2284	715	17390	10580	3465	2716	2694	16320	12730	14900	13360	10370	4443	4553	3103	3999	2259	3682	3589	795	5549	3040	2257	3038	8215	19300	7818	2697	4715	12340	3499	4702	12300	2506	1980	2806	5448	4116	2800	7174
2021-01-02	1311	2044	5061	3214	4891	6815	6633	2194	13340	17390	12620	2301	12280	4052	5016	4798	6927	14310	55310	4229	11780	6346	3354	17330	3369	10320	3955	33780	6262	2846	14310	5239	7138	18860	2827	15240	3385	5826	4217	6372	11780	9798	3125	8179	3880	7067	3836	5301	8764	7863	7772	2281	4622	12430	12230	3484	2153	2360	4909	4987	1357	1778	5857	1600	24420	12530	1669	3133	16960	4749	4435	6434	2092	10580	1632	15020	4901	5720	14410	15640	1356	2550	2634	4942	4598	2464	12390	5397	3884	2825	2580	1732	4414	18900	9185	2983	3717	3411	2546	2140	5069	1645	2949	9448	4786	3751	1817	6449	2564	12320	4242	5718	2359	7541	2916	12250	4465	4370	11700	2094	5442	4358	3931	19000	3565	5047	2932	14600	3444	2637	12290	3350	4763	3450	1790	9062	5272	2722	3640	13190	7463	22740	8869	13930	5358	41830	22490	2431	12150	3744	4953	27680	10410	8487	2228	1295	36080	4090	18360	1659	1728	9274	1171	1553	3858	7084	11930	2496	2826	4129	17770	5814	20240	1537	3675	6108	3122	3498	6244	1441	5905	8272	2298	3158	8950	11380	3363	20150	4791	3316	16910	5392	6282	7807	5475	7887	8750	5590	20660	5453	2772	4694	2810	6732	1363	14960	4677	4073	3300	13830	3462	3209	4283	3792	745	1042	15550	16850	4004	2752	12240	2756	4390	29940	7275	7758	8059	2803	2907	2940	4231	8628	900	2677	4092	2895	2830	2716	3230	4564	2739	4759	7680	6592	9489	12340	3947	4958	8977	5492	3710	2730	12780	9589	13100	2840	2307	13410	3007	8835	10040	6077	11940	2834	3127	1553	5460	3548	2486	1696	7633	3995	11980	5372	2294	721	17670	10640	3575	2790	2736	16380	12850	15420	13760	10440	4483	4687	3171	4074	2292	3777	3663	807	5571	3083	2282	3080	8404	19340	7912	2735	4824	12440	3579	4798	12430	2535	2027	2843	5618	4140	2824	7239

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-26