COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-12-27

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	12-07	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-04	--	--	10-26	10-24	--	--	11-04	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-16	--	12-14	10-29	--	--	--	12-15	--	10-28	12-14	--	12-02	--	10-04	12-14	10-25	11-03	--	--	10-24	12-14	--	--	--	12-14	--	12-15	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	10-30	12-14	--	--	10-03	--	11-01	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	10-25	11-02	10-14	--	12-13	11-02	--	--	11-01	12-14	--	11-02	--	11-01	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-14	12-15	10-11	09-27	--	12-16	--	--	10-11	10-30	12-14	--	--	12-14	--	--	--	09-27	12-14	12-15	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	12-14	--	12-14	12-15	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-11	--	12-13	--	12-14	--	--	11-02	12-14	10-27	12-14	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	12-16	11-01	11-29	12-14	12-13	12-14	--	12-15	09-22	10-26	12-14	11-03	12-14	--	12-13	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	09-27	09-26	11-04	--	--	12-11	10-25	--	10-29	11-04	--	11-04	11-03	11-05	11-04	--	11-03	--	09-30	11-02	11-02	10-25	--	10-12	12-14	12-15	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	12-15	--	--	10-18	12-15	10-12	--	10-17	--	--	12-14	--	--	11-03	10-19	11-01	11-01	--	09-30	11-04	12-15	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-27	10-31	--	--	--	11-09	--	--	--	10-13	--	10-25	11-03	--	12-16	--	12-16	--	10-09	11-01	10-31	--	12-14	10-12	11-01	--	--	11-02	--	--	12-14	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	12-14	--	12-15	12-13	10-25	--	--	12-15	12-14	--	--	10-29	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-13	10-05	12-14	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Peak daily increment			82		62	179					191	28			77	72			625	63	163	99	55	235	50		111	441				179		320	64		69		57	67	159	141			51	157				65		29				53			62		23	22			293		20				53			165	29	249		126	252			37	58		108		225	77							302	90	55	75		36			41	129	58			159				71	53	191	44			65			75	172		535	58		43		52				59		79		137			285	179	360	46		86	541	255		440	61	113	162	164	198		22	610	61	445	29	37		19			91				54	392	85			30	159		49	109		91	122	35	58		131		609	68	40	257		64	128	162		101			94	43		34			197	168	63		199			39			18	237	231	85		184	36	144	435	112		94				66	140				82				70		76	89		340		105		118	82	57		95	125	193			160			187		177	46			90				124		415	146	47			99	97			261	162			135	58							22	91	44				320								37				65	41	130
Days since peak			61		67	20					75	84			62	64			53	55	70	77	61	76	41		13	59				12		60	13		25		84	13	63	54			64	13				13		12				69			77		58	13			85		56				54			63	55	74		14	55			56	13		55		56	55							13	12	77	91		11			77	58	13			13				91	13	12	54			62			54	13		13	12		60		55				77		14		13			55	13	61	13		81	91	56		11	56	28	13	14	13		12	96	62	13	54	13		14			55				91	92	53			16	63		59	53		53	54	52	53		54		88	55	55	63		76	13	12		75			54	62		12			70	12	76		71			13			54	69	56	56		88	53	12	89	56		55				61	57				48				75		63	54		11		11		79	56	57		13	76	56			55			13		70	59			54				13		12	14	63			12	13			59	55			68	71							14	83	13				67								56				77	54	82
Last total	1111	1934	4789	2728	4673	5764	5627	1853	11196	14604	12262	2273	10234	3665	4814	4590	5965	11989	52577	4054	11440	6163	3225	17017	3160	9606	3300	33084	4953	2544	12276	4221	6434	18324	2515	12631	3233	4730	4067	6044	11494	9565	2816	7080	3656	6199	3655	4236	7538	7618	6359	2127	3995	11764	11593	3350	1923	2080	4726	4200	1323	1680	5396	1439	23555	11716	1619	2671	14053	3999	4265	5466	1930	10112	1559	14591	4520	4956	13768	13631	1212	2364	2349	4151	4452	2313	11984	5078	3540	2362	2376	1491	3750	15239	7072	2558	3599	3285	2275	1985	4341	1484	2876	9096	4562	3475	1653	5515	2392	10239	3780	5588	2212	6508	2780	10224	3506	4259	10103	1804	5216	3220	3403	15853	3340	4104	2833	12056	3272	2468	10375	3043	4611	3152	1519	7666	4579	2568	3269	12713	6435	22201	8710	11535	5167	40861	21699	1939	9921	3536	4694	27029	9569	7395	1678	1232	35332	3882	15970	1585	1562	7760	1067	1368	3322	6858	9563	2169	2632	3942	17433	5601	16708	1399	3538	5972	2714	3292	6010	1241	5588	8037	2217	3006	8292	10918	2986	19660	4584	3177	16580	4930	5992	7173	5176	7084	8513	4903	17389	5334	2622	4050	2661	5702	1301	14614	3483	3960	2620	13383	3225	2932	4103	3057	698	980	15173	16070	3819	2473	11948	2656	3615	29215	7052	6865	7692	2508	2412	2573	4022	8254	836	2529	3802	2757	2533	2423	2870	4421	2519	4589	7428	5962	7381	10588	3371	4024	8753	5214	3519	2301	12380	9287	12577	2653	2109	13101	2616	7467	9003	5636	11689	2729	2583	1433	5249	2998	2200	1528	7022	3243	9340	4654	2246	664	15269	10276	3035	2356	2454	15983	12232	12898	11226	10047	4232	3947	2798	3530	2131	3274	3140	720	5438	2840	2113	2675	7268	19021	7390	2542	4230	11832	3248	4157	11695	2392	1794	2655	4736	4005	2689	6885
Last daily increment	41	53	100	139	72	131	172	52	410	546	95	17	315	86	49	57	196	440	691	48	69	42	45	68	18	204	112	150	256	57	385	144	191	206	64	545	73	181	44	82	94	73	79	240	59	103	152	219	243	63	284	31	123	193	210	29	38	102	46	126	14	34	211	34	272	148	19	59	475	161	45	192	53	130	14	138	123	59	193	330	56	19	36	160	28	42	84	71	116	70	70	56	79	499	220	51	56	30	80	43	82	26	29	101	57	78	28	160	60	383	111	76	32	126	59	409	178	50	351	71	106	75	107	498	62	126	21	307	38	58	192	102	42	76	8	274	101	51	90	80	123	111	96	261	46	260	203	73	387	40	52	219	211	197	90	20	202	47	466	24	50	235	11	30	82	68	288	23	69	46	63	56	667	15	32	23	80	54	53	48	108	56	26	34	198	126	89	141	93	33	80	81	30	109	96	194	53	111	562	50	43	114	39	87	34	94	120	37	63	109	78	56	44	120	14	21	81	219	40	68	156	42	136	157	92	180	101	82	94	109	41	127	23	32	91	32	82	84	90	32	67	87	92	191	230	302	58	166	60	48	37	91	117	88	114	34	35	134	83	306	121	137	79	25	51	29	53	105	44	22	122	122	346	168	28	6	554	83	73	127	58	110	156	427	204	147	52	110	83	112	63	106	94	11	59	35	54	76	181	137	204	90	142	185	102	129	239	38	90	59	136	35	36	128
Last week	178	198	385	525	298	779	868	303	1910	2700	452	65	1552	414	215	251	919	2201	3433	220	428	225	159	421	145	934	610	801	1166	294	2049	745	941	797	362	2464	281	919	184	384	387	303	356	1236	286	661	480	911	1226	312	1342	151	585	842	864	136	205	367	254	660	55	137	754	156	1219	816	74	477	2685	689	218	899	219	598	86	585	483	452	865	2006	214	155	282	748	145	200	479	344	416	419	307	233	586	2867	1343	419	174	151	333	185	550	144	111	482	247	345	162	836	216	1901	623	276	239	863	220	1961	755	202	1799	311	377	629	520	2402	306	778	102	2045	177	345	1693	401	190	375	248	1318	623	199	359	475	853	570	302	1830	295	1271	898	364	1963	248	266	935	955	987	431	101	885	221	2046	113	196	1404	95	179	474	290	1699	286	294	208	363	239	3085	93	158	124	403	259	213	199	422	307	107	175	820	627	397	668	332	167	371	416	274	654	482	847	243	578	2801	177	164	677	182	914	111	416	669	151	447	452	282	327	223	622	63	96	412	1079	187	345	539	163	642	796	338	979	480	337	451	415	218	489	85	155	384	143	394	316	407	145	257	337	333	816	1366	1828	497	754	287	283	165	429	564	356	484	184	201	550	392	1453	835	591	371	127	440	152	224	497	269	148	577	655	1763	701	89	53	2657	517	410	493	317	543	763	2104	1720	543	254	702	420	531	191	605	427	68	245	203	205	372	1063	572	739	330	735	731	456	628	1071	182	338	245	703	161	184	536
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-21	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-16	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-22	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																			95									56					70							70										132			36	39									34		68												56																												71									56																													152			75	75					529																							51										74										65	74							41	42									67																																								183										27															138											23									26	64					136
Low between peaks																			9									27												31										31															1																																								21									22																													21			7	14					57																							14																				20								12										13																																								47										2															30

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-12-28 to 2021-01-03

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-27	1111	1934	4789	2728	4673	5764	5627	1853	11196	14604	12262	2273	10234	3665	4814	4590	5965	11989	52577	4054	11440	6163	3225	17017	3160	9606	3300	33084	4953	2544	12276	4221	6434	18324	2515	12631	3233	4730	4067	6044	11494	9565	2816	7080	3656	6199	3655	4236	7538	7618	6359	2127	3995	11764	11593	3350	1923	2080	4726	4200	1323	1680	5396	1439	23555	11716	1619	2671	14053	3999	4265	5466	1930	10112	1559	14591	4520	4956	13768	13631	1212	2364	2349	4151	4452	2313	11984	5078	3540	2362	2376	1491	3750	15239	7072	2558	3599	3285	2275	1985	4341	1484	2876	9096	4562	3475	1653	5515	2392	10239	3780	5588	2212	6508	2780	10224	3506	4259	10103	1804	5216	3220	3403	15853	3340	4104	2833	12056	3272	2468	10375	3043	4611	3152	1519	7666	4579	2568	3269	12713	6435	22201	8710	11535	5167	40861	21699	1939	9921	3536	4694	27029	9569	7395	1678	1232	35332	3882	15970	1585	1562	7760	1067	1368	3322	6858	9563	2169	2632	3942	17433	5601	16708	1399	3538	5972	2714	3292	6010	1241	5588	8037	2217	3006	8292	10918	2986	19660	4584	3177	16580	4930	5992	7173	5176	7084	8513	4903	17389	5334	2622	4050	2661	5702	1301	14614	3483	3960	2620	13383	3225	2932	4103	3057	698	980	15173	16070	3819	2473	11948	2656	3615	29215	7052	6865	7692	2508	2412	2573	4022	8254	836	2529	3802	2757	2533	2423	2870	4421	2519	4589	7428	5962	7381	10588	3371	4024	8753	5214	3519	2301	12380	9287	12577	2653	2109	13101	2616	7467	9003	5636	11689	2729	2583	1433	5249	2998	2200	1528	7022	3243	9340	4654	2246	664	15269	10276	3035	2356	2454	15983	12232	12898	11226	10047	4232	3947	2798	3530	2131	3274	3140	720	5438	2840	2113	2675	7268	19021	7390	2542	4230	11832	3248	4157	11695	2392	1794	2655	4736	4005	2689	6885
2020-12-28	1149	1973	4844	2863	4719	5903	5904	1896	11900	15450	12330	2283	10590	3787	4868	4612	6196	12380	52980	4087	11500	6183	3251	17060	3248	9800	3415	33220	5304	2610	12610	4317	6623	18360	2563	13600	3271	4922	4085	6101	11540	9611	2884	7378	3697	6425	3798	4631	7776	7667	6626	2149	4189	11990	11770	3374	1959	2176	4743	4307	1331	1699	5722	1502	23730	11850	1630	2735	14440	4136	4297	5676	1972	10210	1572	14670	4669	5163	13900	14060	1259	2408	2392	4380	4478	2346	12060	5135	3646	2461	2478	1569	3891	15800	7367	2636	3611	3309	2344	2013	4551	1570	2892	9182	4597	3535	1692	5653	2432	10620	3823	5631	2253	6711	2835	10850	3718	4259	10530	1865	5310	3424	3532	16450	3396	4192	2852	12290	3301	2512	10690	3069	4642	3216	1566	7960	4647	2623	3344	12820	6643	22340	8788	11960	5208	40940	21840	2020	10230	3570	4777	27150	9720	7568	1768	1249	35470	3918	16340	1601	1590	7947	1082	1403	3406	6905	9960	2199	2680	3985	17490	5642	17360	1418	3563	5992	2803	3331	6079	1324	5620	8080	2234	3032	8441	10950	3060	19760	4636	3202	16650	5028	6036	7280	5241	7311	8576	5050	17950	5357	2649	4187	2687	5930	1316	14670	3709	3975	2661	13510	3294	3000	4136	3212	711	997	15220	16200	3853	2560	12030	2698	3766	29350	7154	7005	7761	2575	2497	2683	4059	8295	852	2562	3906	2781	2624	2542	2917	4448	2561	4653	7489	6259	7806	10950	3489	4287	8796	5267	3573	2418	12480	9348	12770	2710	2139	13200	2746	7940	9270	5804	11690	2742	2583	1465	5288	3094	2242	1542	7131	3389	9740	4768	2259	688	16350	10370	3103	2464	2516	16030	12310	13160	11370	10130	4277	4064	2870	3714	2193	3444	3260	732	5471	2878	2176	2818	7548	19070	7421	2621	4414	12170	3331	4322	11890	2422	1881	2704	4856	4019	2716	6977
2020-12-29	1186	2011	4893	2979	4762	6039	6116	1939	12340	16150	12400	2291	10940	3889	4914	4630	6424	12750	53540	4119	11570	6220	3276	17130	3291	9990	3549	33370	5560	2674	12980	4423	6796	18500	2609	14230	3306	5125	4120	6153	11610	9666	2950	7620	3735	6585	3939	4875	8004	7714	6898	2169	4312	12190	11940	3397	1996	2268	4788	4410	1338	1715	5990	1541	23890	12020	1640	2819	14820	4273	4328	5884	2011	10290	1583	14780	4783	5276	14010	14570	1304	2437	2434	4542	4504	2380	12130	5205	3744	2551	2570	1624	3992	16260	7661	2713	3641	3332	2411	2039	4669	1612	2907	9273	4648	3593	1726	5784	2473	11010	3890	5688	2292	6883	2885	11250	3930	4292	10890	1925	5396	3576	3651	16940	3449	4278	2871	12520	3328	2554	11010	3147	4671	3275	1612	8258	4714	2663	3418	12930	6827	22450	8866	12320	5246	41160	21990	2099	10570	3601	4826	27310	9850	7734	1858	1265	35640	3952	16680	1616	1615	8130	1096	1438	3490	6950	10250	2242	2725	4022	17550	5682	18000	1438	3586	6012	2892	3369	6122	1380	5690	8121	2249	3056	8591	11070	3133	19860	4681	3227	16720	5122	6079	7380	5302	7503	8626	5160	18510	5381	2676	4300	2710	6109	1334	14750	3833	4003	2741	13600	3359	3075	4164	3338	723	1013	15280	16370	3887	2634	12140	2747	3919	29490	7239	7141	7824	2637	2579	2772	4095	8389	866	2593	4001	2804	2723	2645	2988	4475	2600	4720	7547	6530	8104	11300	3603	4536	8837	5332	3613	2532	12580	9406	12870	2740	2173	13330	2838	8340	9490	5962	11750	2770	2632	1504	5326	3190	2283	1556	7238	3536	10070	4875	2271	706	16990	10460	3167	2574	2577	16150	12370	13480	11500	10200	4320	4182	2940	3832	2252	3604	3377	744	5502	2917	2220	2941	7775	19160	7548	2680	4585	12450	3411	4461	12120	2451	1963	2750	4977	4050	2741	7066
2020-12-30	1223	2050	4944	3084	4806	6177	6303	1982	12720	16820	12460	2300	11310	3987	4949	4649	6663	13130	54060	4151	11630	6262	3302	17200	3320	10180	3667	33520	5910	2738	13380	4535	6953	18630	2656	14730	3342	5331	4151	6207	11660	9717	3016	7871	3774	6711	4071	5082	8231	7761	7178	2190	4430	12390	12100	3421	2033	2360	4835	4513	1346	1732	6292	1582	24040	12150	1651	2858	15200	4415	4358	6098	2049	10380	1595	14870	4903	5379	14130	15160	1350	2468	2477	4690	4530	2407	12210	5275	3845	2612	2663	1686	4075	16780	7937	2788	3670	3355	2480	2066	4784	1636	2922	9368	4682	3650	1754	5918	2514	11410	3959	5751	2332	7039	2936	11620	4154	4327	11240	1988	5485	3678	3734	17400	3503	4361	2893	12760	3356	2597	11270	3223	4701	3347	1657	8563	4783	2696	3492	13010	6999	22550	8940	12620	5285	41360	22160	2183	10920	3634	4881	27460	9990	7901	1949	1281	35790	3987	17030	1631	1642	8308	1110	1474	3576	6993	10530	2297	2768	4068	17610	5721	18670	1457	3611	6032	2982	3407	6157	1430	5751	8162	2265	3080	8741	11190	3207	19960	4725	3251	16790	5216	6122	7483	5360	7688	8674	5254	19080	5406	2703	4385	2735	6279	1351	14830	3957	4029	2775	13680	3422	3147	4195	3470	735	1029	15340	16540	3920	2720	12240	2790	4046	29620	7321	7279	7890	2699	2664	2847	4131	8486	881	2624	4090	2827	2821	2747	3061	4501	2638	4780	7604	6768	8351	11610	3685	4794	8878	5388	3635	2652	12670	9465	12960	2780	2208	13450	2905	8710	9660	6117	11810	2790	2653	1531	5364	3289	2324	1570	7344	3689	10350	4986	2283	722	17700	10550	3231	2687	2639	16230	12440	13810	11630	10270	4363	4286	3010	3917	2312	3770	3497	755	5532	2955	2268	3034	7973	19260	7652	2746	4766	12730	3492	4577	12330	2480	2054	2795	5101	4079	2767	7154
2020-12-31	1261	2088	4992	3192	4848	6314	6494	2026	13050	17320	12520	2309	11680	4061	4976	4667	6904	13500	54590	4182	11690	6291	3327	17250	3342	10370	3784	33630	6120	2803	13700	4599	7099	18740	2701	15180	3375	5487	4173	6258	11720	9751	3082	8025	3811	6831	4195	5264	8452	7806	7466	2210	4547	12520	12260	3443	2071	2450	4870	4614	1354	1748	6594	1613	24190	12260	1661	2907	15600	4560	4388	6314	2087	10460	1607	14950	5014	5457	14250	15480	1394	2493	2518	4837	4555	2439	12280	5314	3943	2678	2756	1750	4165	17120	8160	2850	3691	3377	2549	2092	4874	1661	2936	9442	4716	3708	1771	6049	2555	11820	4028	5818	2370	7178	2983	11850	4385	4348	11600	2051	5569	3792	3817	17760	3556	4445	2906	13010	3383	2639	11550	3271	4729	3402	1702	8875	4850	2740	3566	13070	7176	22630	9009	12900	5321	41530	22280	2267	11220	3664	4916	27600	10120	8064	2042	1296	35920	4020	17370	1646	1668	8490	1124	1511	3663	7035	10770	2335	2809	4099	17660	5759	19360	1476	3634	6051	3073	3444	6185	1479	5816	8201	2281	3104	8891	11270	3281	20050	4767	3275	16850	5310	6164	7581	5416	7838	8715	5345	19670	5430	2730	4482	2758	6434	1368	14880	4069	4051	2796	13730	3484	3208	4223	3607	746	1045	15390	16690	3952	2788	12320	2823	4166	29740	7394	7413	7952	2760	2748	2918	4166	8547	894	2655	4165	2849	2931	2843	3113	4527	2676	4834	7659	7011	8559	11850	3772	5056	8916	5418	3666	2774	12760	9522	13030	2804	2237	13560	2977	9110	9790	6247	11870	2806	2653	1555	5400	3388	2366	1584	7450	3846	10580	5093	2294	736	18410	10620	3294	2804	2670	16290	12500	14090	11750	10340	4405	4386	3080	4010	2372	3936	3618	767	5561	2993	2316	3121	8176	19330	7757	2805	4940	13060	3574	4696	12500	2508	2145	2838	5227	4103	2791	7240
2021-01-01	1299	2127	5040	3258	4890	6451	6607	2070	13290	17890	12580	2317	12070	4116	4999	4685	7153	13880	54930	4213	11740	6312	3352	17310	3359	10560	3861	33710	6248	2868	13910	4664	7182	18790	2747	15290	3409	5619	4191	6309	11750	9777	3150	8175	3848	6896	4304	5356	8676	7852	7766	2229	4662	12600	12420	3466	2109	2541	4889	4715	1362	1764	6923	1630	24340	12350	1671	2937	16000	4710	4417	6539	2124	10550	1618	15000	5076	5517	14360	15860	1439	2510	2560	4905	4581	2450	12350	5340	4044	2692	2851	1780	4217	17510	8318	2903	3703	3399	2620	2118	4942	1673	2950	9493	4751	3766	1786	6181	2596	12240	4097	5868	2409	7270	3031	12100	4629	4361	11800	2116	5654	3868	3859	18070	3609	4531	2913	13250	3411	2680	11780	3320	4757	3432	1748	9198	4919	2760	3642	13120	7290	22680	9058	13090	5358	41690	22380	2355	11390	3695	4947	27690	10250	8229	2139	1311	36000	4053	17710	1661	1693	8675	1138	1548	3753	7078	10990	2359	2850	4118	17720	5797	20060	1496	3657	6071	3167	3481	6210	1530	5856	8241	2296	3128	9044	11320	3356	20140	4808	3299	16880	5405	6207	7680	5472	7935	8746	5420	20270	5455	2757	4529	2781	6562	1385	14920	4158	4061	2808	13790	3547	3253	4251	3693	759	1061	15440	16820	3985	2839	12380	2849	4253	29830	7448	7550	8014	2822	2833	2955	4201	8586	908	2687	4215	2871	2976	2914	3146	4553	2713	4893	7715	7301	8725	12020	3827	5333	8955	5448	3687	2902	12860	9579	13090	2829	2256	13630	3036	9440	9880	6396	11890	2817	2685	1563	5437	3491	2408	1599	7556	4010	10750	5201	2305	744	18930	10670	3357	2925	2715	16340	12560	14360	11880	10400	4447	4465	3152	4096	2434	4108	3744	778	5590	3031	2318	3216	8364	19380	7784	2854	5114	13260	3658	4783	12590	2536	2240	2881	5356	4115	2815	7327
2021-01-02	1338	2166	5088	3354	4932	6590	6791	2115	13640	18510	12640	2326	12470	4193	5036	4702	7412	14270	55440	4244	11800	6351	3377	17380	3368	10750	3987	33810	6451	2935	14290	4762	7282	18920	2794	15580	3443	5798	4220	6360	11800	9816	3219	8322	3885	6995	4400	5540	8902	7898	8078	2249	4790	12770	12580	3489	2148	2634	4929	4818	1369	1780	7145	1660	24490	12470	1681	2984	16410	4865	4447	6772	2162	10630	1629	15100	5194	5582	14480	16360	1485	2535	2602	5011	4606	2481	12420	5399	4148	2747	2950	1827	4274	17930	8525	2956	3728	3422	2692	2143	5007	1703	2965	9576	4788	3826	1816	6315	2639	12680	4166	5923	2448	7401	3079	12390	4888	4390	12110	2184	5739	3961	3930	18460	3662	4620	2932	13510	3439	2721	12060	3383	4785	3483	1794	9534	4988	2788	3719	13200	7412	22750	9117	13360	5395	41860	22520	2446	11690	3726	4978	27820	10390	8394	2239	1327	36130	4086	18060	1676	1719	8865	1152	1586	3844	7121	11250	2384	2891	4148	17780	5835	20800	1515	3680	6090	3264	3518	6242	1579	5920	8281	2311	3151	9199	11410	3433	20230	4850	3323	16930	5503	6249	7780	5528	8077	8774	5499	20880	5480	2784	4592	2805	6680	1402	14980	4273	4083	2860	13850	3609	3299	4279	3815	771	1077	15490	16990	4018	2970	12470	2888	4357	29960	7525	7687	8076	2885	2920	3023	4236	8661	922	2719	4279	2893	3134	2994	3224	4580	2750	4951	7770	7507	8903	12310	3893	5626	8994	5494	3709	3036	12950	9637	13150	2859	2283	13730	3104	9760	10020	6574	11950	2838	2713	1583	5474	3597	2451	1613	7663	4181	11020	5309	2316	755	19580	10740	3421	3052	2769	16430	12620	14680	12010	10470	4490	4586	3225	4202	2497	4289	3874	789	5619	3069	2340	3287	8537	19460	7874	2910	5291	13540	3743	4906	12740	2564	2339	2924	5489	4139	2839	7413
2021-01-03	1378	2207	5137	3507	4974	6730	6967	2161	14040	19160	12710	2334	12880	4282	5077	4720	7681	14660	56040	4276	11860	6384	3403	17440	3383	10950	4094	33940	6714	3004	14640	4903	7441	19070	2841	16300	3477	5966	4255	6411	11880	9880	3289	8578	3922	7104	4452	5761	9132	7943	8404	2269	4855	12940	12750	3512	2188	2729	4967	4921	1377	1795	7296	1697	24630	12600	1691	3035	16840	5025	4477	7013	2201	10710	1641	15220	5297	5651	14590	16610	1532	2560	2644	5180	4632	2519	12500	5456	4255	2839	3052	1883	4381	18540	8763	3015	3769	3444	2767	2170	5093	1729	2979	9660	4833	3887	1842	6450	2681	13140	4236	5967	2487	7535	3127	12930	5161	4427	12430	2253	5824	4059	4038	18930	3715	4710	2950	13770	3466	2763	12290	3487	4814	3545	1841	9884	5059	2823	3798	13270	7546	22850	9182	13640	5432	42070	22690	2541	12040	3757	5029	28000	10520	8561	2344	1342	36300	4120	18400	1691	1745	9060	1166	1626	3938	7164	11560	2435	2933	4185	17830	5873	21560	1535	3703	6110	3364	3556	6289	1624	6000	8321	2327	3175	9357	11510	3512	20320	4891	3347	17000	5602	6292	7880	5584	8258	8816	5607	21520	5504	2811	4700	2828	6798	1419	15050	4398	4111	2925	13940	3673	3356	4307	3960	784	1093	15550	17170	4051	3011	12590	2916	4488	30100	7588	7826	8139	2949	3010	3115	4272	8756	935	2751	4362	2916	3184	3060	3304	4606	2788	5015	7826	7683	9146	12600	3967	5934	9033	5535	3741	3177	13050	9694	13260	2887	2319	13830	3196	10100	10130	6680	12000	2858	2784	1609	5511	3706	2495	1628	7771	4360	11350	5418	2328	759	20140	10820	3485	3185	2832	16520	12680	15070	12140	10540	4532	4702	3300	4332	2562	4478	4008	801	5648	3108	2385	3337	8726	19560	8062	2973	5471	13630	3831	5056	12900	2592	2442	2967	5625	4169	2863	7501

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-12-28 to 2021-01-03

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-12-27	1111	1934	4789	2728	4673	5764	5627	1853	11196	14604	12262	2273	10234	3665	4814	4590	5965	11989	52577	4054	11440	6163	3225	17017	3160	9606	3300	33084	4953	2544	12276	4221	6434	18324	2515	12631	3233	4730	4067	6044	11494	9565	2816	7080	3656	6199	3655	4236	7538	7618	6359	2127	3995	11764	11593	3350	1923	2080	4726	4200	1323	1680	5396	1439	23555	11716	1619	2671	14053	3999	4265	5466	1930	10112	1559	14591	4520	4956	13768	13631	1212	2364	2349	4151	4452	2313	11984	5078	3540	2362	2376	1491	3750	15239	7072	2558	3599	3285	2275	1985	4341	1484	2876	9096	4562	3475	1653	5515	2392	10239	3780	5588	2212	6508	2780	10224	3506	4259	10103	1804	5216	3220	3403	15853	3340	4104	2833	12056	3272	2468	10375	3043	4611	3152	1519	7666	4579	2568	3269	12713	6435	22201	8710	11535	5167	40861	21699	1939	9921	3536	4694	27029	9569	7395	1678	1232	35332	3882	15970	1585	1562	7760	1067	1368	3322	6858	9563	2169	2632	3942	17433	5601	16708	1399	3538	5972	2714	3292	6010	1241	5588	8037	2217	3006	8292	10918	2986	19660	4584	3177	16580	4930	5992	7173	5176	7084	8513	4903	17389	5334	2622	4050	2661	5702	1301	14614	3483	3960	2620	13383	3225	2932	4103	3057	698	980	15173	16070	3819	2473	11948	2656	3615	29215	7052	6865	7692	2508	2412	2573	4022	8254	836	2529	3802	2757	2533	2423	2870	4421	2519	4589	7428	5962	7381	10588	3371	4024	8753	5214	3519	2301	12380	9287	12577	2653	2109	13101	2616	7467	9003	5636	11689	2729	2583	1433	5249	2998	2200	1528	7022	3243	9340	4654	2246	664	15269	10276	3035	2356	2454	15983	12232	12898	11226	10047	4232	3947	2798	3530	2131	3274	3140	720	5438	2840	2113	2675	7268	19021	7390	2542	4230	11832	3248	4157	11695	2392	1794	2655	4736	4005	2689	6885
2020-12-28	1152	1968	4857	2849	4739	5916	5830	1909	11670	15260	12340	2283	10530	3751	4860	4649	6153	12450	53140	4092	11560	6200	3259	17100	3198	9780	3417	33230	5246	2624	12690	4367	6614	18480	2577	13170	3289	4913	4103	6116	11570	9631	2880	7308	3712	6369	3766	4439	7757	7670	6678	2153	4136	11940	11750	3374	1966	2148	4762	4327	1333	1703	5587	1475	23780	11850	1633	2761	14520	4143	4312	5659	1971	10220	1573	14720	4628	5062	13920	14040	1250	2398	2405	4325	4476	2346	12070	5152	3636	2467	2438	1543	3851	15770	7350	2644	3640	3311	2340	2016	4460	1537	2897	9177	4608	3536	1685	5663	2438	10600	3879	5638	2249	6669	2824	10660	3668	4293	10460	1869	5291	3351	3508	16320	3385	4237	2852	12450	3304	2525	10660	3122	4644	3220	1552	7920	4683	2605	3339	12810	6590	22330	8768	11980	5218	41120	21920	2020	10340	3576	4745	27170	9760	7620	1767	1247	35520	3930	16410	1602	1595	8024	1083	1398	3414	6910	9920	2210	2682	3991	17490	5649	17400	1414	3567	5995	2785	3335	6055	1286	5675	8087	2236	3032	8440	11020	3067	19780	4647	3204	16640	5010	6044	7309	5237	7259	8559	5018	17910	5364	2652	4194	2691	5884	1323	14700	3633	3983	2728	13490	3290	2992	4145	3209	709	996	15250	16280	3862	2533	12050	2688	3760	29370	7124	7035	7775	2575	2509	2667	4061	8349	857	2556	3887	2780	2614	2498	2951	4448	2574	4643	7490	6149	7659	10960	3456	4194	8819	5270	3559	2388	12490	9356	12690	2698	2144	13210	2718	7778	9170	5746	11750	2752	2667	1457	5291	3106	2247	1555	7125	3378	9790	4797	2261	677	15890	10360	3109	2465	2521	16100	12350	13310	11550	10150	4287	4068	2873	3684	2174	3383	3244	737	5486	2875	2170	2752	7505	19140	7529	2607	4365	12020	3337	4298	11890	2422	1862	2703	4866	4033	2721	6980
2020-12-29	1189	1996	4915	2945	4782	6077	6008	1963	12100	15890	12410	2290	10850	3817	4902	4686	6326	12820	53650	4125	11630	6234	3286	17160	3237	9930	3533	33360	5447	2678	13080	4531	6774	18600	2633	13670	3329	5095	4135	6177	11640	9681	2940	7532	3754	6522	3836	4663	7962	7716	6934	2177	4242	12090	11900	3398	2003	2206	4803	4450	1341	1722	5713	1504	23970	11990	1644	2877	14970	4275	4350	5836	2004	10310	1586	14820	4704	5173	14030	14490	1282	2426	2463	4483	4501	2376	12150	5214	3699	2565	2493	1585	3979	16330	7684	2736	3669	3335	2396	2050	4590	1572	2914	9250	4653	3591	1715	5816	2475	10950	3983	5671	2280	6863	2854	11050	3836	4322	10780	1923	5347	3521	3608	16850	3423	4381	2870	12910	3336	2573	11000	3186	4675	3274	1591	8171	4798	2639	3403	12900	6768	22450	8815	12430	5259	41340	22060	2114	10770	3609	4790	27300	9930	7817	1853	1260	35680	3965	16800	1617	1623	8293	1100	1427	3518	6959	10290	2259	2725	4026	17550	5690	18040	1435	3591	6018	2855	3373	6095	1327	5738	8138	2252	3061	8564	11120	3142	19880	4695	3229	16710	5080	6093	7420	5285	7409	8605	5131	18430	5388	2681	4330	2717	6104	1337	14780	3802	4005	2869	13580	3343	3057	4177	3330	718	1007	15320	16430	3899	2579	12130	2715	3899	29510	7176	7192	7853	2633	2590	2747	4097	8431	873	2581	3964	2805	2680	2561	3021	4476	2616	4688	7543	6298	8020	11340	3565	4325	8865	5326	3595	2468	12570	9418	12780	2727	2179	13290	2808	8075	9350	5843	11810	2776	2770	1487	5328	3203	2291	1582	7236	3511	10220	4931	2274	689	16380	10440	3199	2547	2577	16210	12460	13720	11930	10230	4330	4192	2943	3796	2209	3477	3331	755	5524	2915	2208	2827	7750	19220	7653	2650	4485	12120	3430	4421	12070	2453	1912	2742	5016	4060	2750	7056
2020-12-30	1225	2024	4970	3040	4830	6238	6180	2017	12530	16380	12470	2298	11150	3894	4939	4724	6514	13250	54140	4157	11700	6270	3308	17230	3269	10090	3643	33500	5690	2734	13520	4703	6927	18720	2689	14160	3365	5290	4166	6245	11690	9728	2999	7767	3797	6655	3905	4890	8192	7761	7193	2200	4347	12230	12050	3423	2041	2265	4844	4576	1347	1742	5849	1537	24160	12120	1655	2950	15490	4411	4383	6027	2036	10400	1598	14910	4783	5282	14160	14960	1315	2456	2517	4637	4527	2404	12220	5277	3768	2643	2537	1632	4106	16900	8025	2823	3697	3359	2453	2082	4723	1597	2931	9326	4692	3647	1744	5969	2511	11320	4075	5706	2312	7051	2885	11450	4009	4351	11080	1973	5401	3680	3695	17360	3466	4526	2889	13260	3369	2620	11330	3246	4706	3337	1630	8400	4913	2671	3470	12980	6947	22540	8861	12840	5299	41540	22230	2192	11230	3643	4836	27420	10070	7998	1939	1279	35830	4006	17170	1632	1650	8560	1117	1457	3618	7007	10670	2313	2767	4071	17610	5730	18710	1455	3617	6041	2925	3411	6134	1363	5801	8187	2268	3086	8689	11220	3214	19980	4739	3254	16770	5148	6141	7533	5333	7559	8652	5239	18960	5412	2711	4459	2743	6311	1351	14850	3979	4027	2965	13660	3395	3121	4211	3470	728	1022	15380	16600	3933	2627	12210	2739	4023	29640	7227	7350	7930	2691	2682	2822	4136	8515	887	2612	4037	2830	2742	2630	3092	4502	2660	4727	7596	6411	8378	11710	3664	4454	8913	5378	3623	2553	12660	9480	12870	2766	2214	13380	2885	8360	9520	5945	11870	2796	2853	1512	5368	3296	2336	1609	7348	3652	10600	5063	2286	700	16860	10520	3294	2638	2628	16290	12570	14130	12190	10320	4372	4316	3010	3892	2242	3572	3423	769	5556	2956	2250	2897	7978	19310	7768	2702	4606	12240	3515	4528	12240	2485	1964	2782	5158	4087	2776	7131
2020-12-31	1263	2052	5020	3129	4867	6393	6339	2073	12920	16820	12540	2304	11460	3953	4972	4758	6716	13590	54650	4188	11760	6301	3330	17280	3297	10220	3757	33620	5917	2776	13870	4866	7076	18820	2745	14660	3398	5461	4193	6302	11750	9768	3057	7989	3842	6786	3970	5073	8414	7802	7461	2222	4451	12360	12190	3447	2078	2325	4878	4703	1356	1761	5985	1564	24310	12240	1665	3058	15990	4543	4415	6201	2069	10480	1609	14990	4866	5378	14280	15280	1347	2483	2565	4784	4551	2433	12290	5327	3837	2723	2581	1682	4238	17470	8343	2894	3719	3384	2511	2105	4843	1622	2944	9395	4727	3704	1768	6122	2546	11690	4167	5746	2342	7227	2916	11790	4180	4373	11420	2033	5453	3846	3787	17780	3509	4666	2905	13690	3400	2667	11680	3301	4736	3393	1670	8664	5027	2703	3535	13050	7132	22620	8905	13240	5339	41720	22360	2270	11640	3677	4880	27540	10220	8149	2029	1290	35970	4043	17490	1647	1678	8831	1133	1488	3714	7048	11040	2362	2805	4101	17670	5768	19320	1476	3642	6063	2997	3450	6170	1398	5866	8225	2284	3110	8813	11310	3282	20070	4782	3280	16830	5212	6185	7626	5382	7713	8695	5348	19480	5436	2741	4595	2769	6495	1365	14910	4160	4049	3058	13720	3451	3181	4241	3621	737	1039	15440	16740	3962	2671	12280	2760	4152	29770	7276	7505	7996	2753	2765	2896	4171	8585	898	2637	4098	2855	2812	2686	3148	4526	2701	4761	7649	6550	8732	12080	3765	4572	8955	5418	3655	2633	12740	9542	12950	2792	2248	13450	2965	8679	9680	6027	11920	2815	2937	1535	5406	3395	2380	1632	7447	3786	10980	5183	2295	711	17310	10590	3370	2722	2665	16350	12680	14480	12540	10400	4415	4440	3076	3989	2274	3669	3506	783	5588	2996	2291	2966	8205	19370	7881	2741	4732	12390	3600	4637	12390	2510	2019	2820	5292	4112	2803	7205
2021-01-01	1305	2080	5074	3209	4901	6556	6488	2130	13230	17330	12600	2310	11750	3992	5004	4789	6900	14020	55110	4219	11800	6329	3357	17340	3327	10350	3862	33720	6097	2819	14080	5041	7179	18900	2802	15140	3419	5617	4217	6355	11800	9804	3111	8198	3878	6892	4033	5218	8600	7843	7676	2245	4554	12460	12320	3472	2117	2385	4901	4834	1363	1779	6113	1585	24420	12360	1675	3120	16550	4659	4440	6405	2102	10560	1620	15050	4930	5470	14400	15670	1381	2506	2607	4874	4574	2460	12350	5371	3908	2766	2609	1717	4361	18070	8657	2964	3733	3408	2566	2135	4974	1638	2957	9455	4768	3762	1792	6272	2575	12040	4257	5776	2373	7378	2944	12190	4354	4390	11690	2087	5507	4009	3856	18280	3547	4814	2917	14080	3433	2708	12010	3356	4767	3435	1710	8908	5137	2736	3598	13120	7296	22690	8942	13680	5369	41840	22470	2342	12040	3709	4924	27650	10360	8328	2120	1298	36080	4080	17910	1662	1706	9105	1150	1519	3805	7089	11410	2406	2841	4125	17720	5805	20020	1498	3665	6085	3070	3488	6207	1432	5921	8259	2299	3135	8935	11380	3343	20160	4820	3305	16880	5283	6223	7705	5430	7835	8735	5459	20100	5460	2771	4706	2795	6667	1378	14940	4341	4069	3114	13780	3496	3233	4271	3738	745	1050	15500	16860	3989	2715	12350	2778	4270	29880	7321	7652	8063	2811	2857	2968	4202	8641	908	2658	4129	2880	2836	2728	3199	4551	2736	4790	7702	6665	9079	12360	3855	4678	8982	5458	3684	2715	12810	9602	13020	2820	2272	13510	3035	8968	9830	6104	11960	2830	3027	1547	5442	3471	2426	1655	7541	3909	11420	5331	2306	718	17670	10660	3449	2808	2709	16400	12790	14860	12810	10470	4455	4568	3139	4095	2305	3770	3584	795	5604	3037	2307	3038	8421	19420	7957	2776	4851	12460	3668	4728	12510	2536	2071	2850	5452	4132	2829	7275
2021-01-02	1340	2108	5128	3293	4936	6719	6668	2189	13610	17740	12670	2315	12130	4045	5044	4826	7066	14340	55590	4250	11850	6363	3383	17400	3357	10480	3977	33840	6279	2863	14490	5225	7271	19000	2860	15670	3443	5801	4245	6414	11850	9845	3162	8388	3915	7013	4083	5424	8778	7888	7886	2267	4657	12590	12480	3497	2155	2447	4937	4969	1370	1798	6238	1618	24580	12490	1685	3202	17070	4814	4466	6585	2136	10650	1633	15130	5001	5570	14520	16010	1415	2530	2661	5014	4599	2488	12420	5426	3973	2820	2648	1753	4488	18700	8983	3035	3757	3433	2623	2166	5080	1660	2970	9529	4805	3820	1820	6432	2609	12410	4346	5808	2408	7567	2975	12460	4554	4409	11910	2138	5561	4196	3908	18870	3588	4973	2935	14430	3465	2747	12360	3406	4798	3485	1752	9156	5256	2767	3669	13200	7460	22770	8978	13960	5405	41980	22610	2425	12490	3740	4969	27770	10500	8491	2215	1312	36210	4116	18320	1678	1735	9395	1167	1551	3913	7130	11820	2451	2880	4155	17780	5843	20570	1519	3689	6108	3145	3527	6248	1473	5982	8299	2316	3159	9057	11460	3421	20250	4862	3330	16940	5348	6268	7802	5482	7964	8776	5567	20680	5485	2801	4810	2821	6798	1392	15000	4540	4090	3234	13860	3546	3287	4302	3848	753	1063	15550	17000	4020	2769	12430	2799	4393	30010	7373	7799	8137	2864	2945	3020	4239	8712	922	2684	4181	2905	2916	2774	3266	4577	2774	4831	7756	6806	9480	12660	3954	4787	9022	5503	3717	2803	12900	9663	13110	2846	2303	13580	3115	9208	10000	6196	12000	2848	3136	1569	5481	3560	2472	1681	7661	4044	11860	5465	2317	726	18010	10730	3550	2885	2752	16470	12900	15360	13100	10540	4494	4703	3209	4177	2340	3875	3662	806	5628	3079	2330	3091	8609	19470	8057	2819	4972	12540	3743	4833	12650	2565	2126	2887	5619	4155	2857	7345
2021-01-03	1381	2139	5183	3401	4978	6888	6852	2250	14070	18290	12740	2321	12490	4115	5083	4864	7242	14700	56100	4283	11910	6392	3407	17460	3386	10620	4093	33950	6501	2912	14850	5432	7410	19100	2919	16270	3479	6011	4274	6467	11900	9891	3221	8643	3955	7152	4124	5643	8999	7932	8169	2292	4752	12720	12630	3522	2199	2510	4967	5107	1377	1816	6336	1651	24760	12620	1696	3306	17610	4946	4495	6779	2170	10750	1645	15210	5077	5677	14650	16320	1450	2562	2712	5188	4624	2519	12490	5481	4038	2912	2685	1798	4642	19370	9353	3110	3787	3458	2686	2199	5216	1694	2987	9602	4843	3880	1849	6598	2639	12810	4448	5834	2438	7786	3001	12910	4757	4433	12220	2196	5616	4394	4005	19500	3625	5139	2953	14900	3495	2788	12720	3473	4830	3539	1795	9463	5391	2800	3744	13270	7642	22860	9018	14400	5433	42130	22750	2522	12990	3773	5016	27900	10640	8698	2314	1323	36350	4149	18770	1693	1764	9686	1183	1584	4029	7173	12260	2501	2922	4188	17840	5882	21270	1541	3715	6130	3223	3567	6291	1511	6041	8339	2332	3187	9182	11530	3489	20350	4906	3356	17010	5416	6312	7902	5532	8116	8821	5692	21290	5509	2832	4961	2848	7000	1406	15060	4759	4113	3358	13940	3606	3346	4332	3978	764	1076	15620	17150	4052	2812	12500	2821	4539	30140	7419	7956	8207	2931	3040	3109	4278	8783	934	2712	4251	2931	2963	2822	3329	4604	2819	4871	7811	6913	9911	13070	4063	4923	9058	5549	3750	2896	12980	9728	13200	2881	2338	13650	3210	9524	10160	6285	12040	2868	3245	1594	5523	3664	2519	1708	7778	4203	12410	5589	2330	734	18380	10810	3634	2984	2800	16520	13020	15850	13650	10610	4535	4840	3280	4292	2380	3982	3762	817	5647	3121	2372	3146	8846	19530	8174	2865	5086	12590	3844	4966	12780	2592	2175	2922	5778	4182	2885	7422

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-12-27 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-12-27