COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-02

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	12-21	--	12-21	--	12-07	12-21	--	--	12-22	12-21	--	12-18	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	11-02	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	11-15	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	12-19	--	11-01	--	12-21	--	12-22	--	--	10-25	11-03	--	--	--	12-08	--	--	12-21	10-13	12-22	--	--	--	--	10-19	12-21	--	10-11	--	--	12-22	12-21	--	--	--	--	--	12-22	12-22	--	12-21	12-21	--	--	10-14	--	12-07	12-21	--	--	--	--	12-21	11-02	--	11-01	--	--	--	12-21	--	12-22	12-21	12-19	--	--	09-27	--	12-21	--	--	12-22	--	12-14	--	12-22	--	--	--	12-22	--	--	12-22	--	12-21	--	--	--	--	--	12-14	--	--	12-21	12-21	10-28	--	--	12-21	--	12-21	12-22	--	12-21	12-22	12-22	--	--	11-02	12-21	10-27	--	12-21	12-22	09-27	--	--	12-21	--	11-29	09-29	12-21	12-22	--	12-21	09-22	12-22	12-22	11-03	--	12-21	12-21	--	12-21	--	12-22	--	--	09-27	09-26	11-04	--	12-08	12-21	10-25	--	--	11-04	12-22	--	11-03	--	--	--	12-21	--	12-22	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	12-22	12-21	12-22	--	12-21	11-03	--	--	--	12-21	--	10-18	12-19	10-11	--	10-17	--	--	12-22	--	--	--	12-21	12-21	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	12-21	--	10-27	--	--	--	--	11-09	--	--	--	10-12	--	12-22	--	--	12-21	12-21	--	12-21	12-21	--	10-31	--	10-18	12-21	11-01	12-21	--	--	--	12-21	12-07	--	10-18	12-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-21	--	12-22	12-22	12-22	12-22	--	12-22	--	--	10-29	--	12-21	12-18	--	--	--	--	12-21	--	--	--	--	10-05	12-12	--	--	--	12-21	--	--	--	12-21	--	12-21	--	12-21	--	--	--	--	12-22	--
Peak daily increment		107		232		171	175			655	111		312		77					63	163	98	55	235	49			441				171		319		644		255			159	141				147			308	132	294					53	118		62			96	390						675	184		229	98			249		115	336					201	109		226				157		171	594	292			75		97			40		50		62				138			242		501						135			108	191	43			133		179	80		292	323	144			285	233	360		424	87	541			511		117	528	316	198		46	609	83	429	29		363	58		164		442			54	391	85		23	54	159			109	75		121				190		212			257				132	212	84		733	94				210		196	153	64		199			72				134	470	84					437					123		66					83				69		121			325	512		213	147		57		183	134	194	76				409	184		177	58								161		143	36	11	636		93			261		526	415					197					91	42				243				405		154		107					72
Days since peak		12		12		26	12			11	12		15		68					61	76	83	67	82	48			65				14		62		12		11			69	60				25			12	81	11					75	12		83			11	12						11	11		12	12			80		26	12					12	61		62				12		11	12	14			97		12			11		19		11				11			11		12						19			12	12	66			12		12	11		12	11	11			61	12	67		12	11	97			12		34	95	12	11		12	102	11	11	60		12	12		12		11			97	98	59		25	12	69			59	11		60				12		11			69				11	12	11		12	60				12		76	14	83		77			11				12	12	62					95					12		67					54				82		11			12	12		12	12		63		76	12	62	12				12	26		76	11								12		11	11	11	11		11			65		12	15					12					89	21				12				12		12		12					11
Last total	1459	2375	5355	3758	5341	6690	6685	2346	14109	18044	12865	2521	12214	4306	5138	5175	7273	14540	58800	4403	12318	6524	3497	17766	3329	11778	4207	34301	6444	3174	15158	5138	8150	19981	3147	15724	3694	5885	4428	6714	12149	10101	3373	8613	4142	6995	4610	5308	9105	8132	7954	2408	5112	13344	13342	3636	2457	2489	5063	5780	1533	2134	7018	1678	25832	13285	1855	3691	17545	4930	4681	6656	2354	11411	1709	15517	5555	5606	15556	16529	1587	2596	2854	5078	4702	2598	12680	5657	4421	3123	3000	1820	4758	18771	8701	3204	3966	3553	2809	2386	5190	1816	3066	9867	5020	4066	1965	6653	2946	12841	4509	6633	2522	7739	3154	12519	4532	4789	12083	2460	5877	3932	4146	18667	3889	5051	3061	14761	3604	3173	13194	3872	5018	3910	2750	9173	5456	2968	3891	13482	7839	23274	9809	14005	5648	43090	23237	2553	12466	3944	4996	29861	10938	8660	2238	1406	37090	4311	18595	1717	1814	9653	1229	1773	4143	7517	11759	2671	3182	4288	18076	5955	20672	1516	3862	6232	3313	3590	6376	1608	6278	8526	2483	3363	9773	11971	3579	20798	5118	3451	17250	5630	6594	8035	5657	8228	8966	5811	21308	5754	3013	5178	2975	6919	1525	15267	4279	4207	3226	14053	3685	3483	4459	4154	803	1137	15955	18332	4190	2985	13575	2964	4481	30499	8039	8257	8659	3136	3012	3191	4412	9281	990	2780	4342	3048	3147	2899	3566	4813	2894	5170	8139	7389	9277	13111	4288	4944	9587	5756	3749	2930	13380	10065	13425	3064	2385	14411	3283	9462	10034	6751	12318	3001	3265	1617	5910	4236	2750	1795	7901	3997	11577	5514	2402	726	18505	11147	3611	3041	2948	16814	14068	15504	13529	11310	4747	4797	3575	4475	2448	4163	3721	782	5889	3050	2539	3403	8551	20230	8783	3057	5171	13897	3918	5013	13738	2896	2411	3082	5746	4385	3083	7874
Last daily increment	53	88	89	118	111	109	141	102	447	444	94	51	313	80	63	99	205	409	1144	63	153	87	48	158	35	394	102	225	244	122	427	122	253	294	131	364	95	160	60	120	122	87	77	221	79	118	189	161	212	88	249	47	206	277	336	67	68	55	69	275	44	87	228	49	368	299	55	147	452	113	57	149	80	231	20	167	198	114	344	479	69	37	87	128	55	46	129	80	137	118	104	57	103	500	226	87	58	28	85	74	133	50	27	138	98	91	42	162	100	369	97	275	47	159	71	284	141	135	303	93	131	91	106	451	70	123	40	424	62	73	387	115	63	106	187	179	95	67	90	137	150	192	331	281	95	400	294	85	387	69	48	736	241	191	94	27	309	60	394	19	26	243	13	73	98	107	303	81	96	53	124	63	555	11	45	32	89	50	63	46	103	85	52	64	266	168	107	229	83	46	107	115	125	155	94	155	76	125	576	70	82	126	57	128	34	128	99	53	96	97	85	70	64	174	27	23	144	455	58	75	418	82	129	198	224	239	161	76	82	92	70	154	49	30	89	53	95	69	103	88	43	107	108	230	216	327	157	122	242	123	40	89	195	126	166	51	37	206	94	270	133	214	121	33	95	27	172	219	73	53	149	85	315	119	30	3	375	185	68	119	79	118	348	347	244	302	103	130	88	116	61	154	94	8	107	44	67	121	164	278	285	69	137	433	97	110	402	109	81	82	128	66	55	172
Last week	346	436	559	1018	661	901	1023	489	2778	3237	599	246	1940	630	321	581	1264	2481	6187	350	835	358	265	736	167	2164	851	1197	1483	624	2761	884	1687	1651	633	2954	459	1092	357	652	639	531	551	1452	481	771	954	1048	1530	513	1570	277	1091	1557	1719	284	512	401	334	1505	210	454	1618	238	2253	1560	233	1005	3303	918	414	1156	419	1291	145	908	1029	629	1784	2769	373	230	472	908	246	281	665	569	875	755	623	328	908	3374	1549	571	367	265	531	401	830	330	189	767	451	585	311	1111	553	2540	698	1047	305	1153	373	2184	988	524	1932	642	631	697	733	2732	543	895	224	2537	329	689	2531	806	397	745	1214	1442	808	397	620	757	1239	1057	1095	2293	470	2226	1518	605	2455	402	303	2798	1350	1222	557	174	1752	416	2587	131	248	1751	162	399	811	652	2179	428	548	331	645	349	3825	116	317	256	582	295	345	364	686	481	266	352	1465	1042	589	1125	526	278	658	680	596	844	480	1113	445	854	3667	418	388	1014	310	1039	224	657	759	244	588	661	455	489	352	1072	102	155	775	2248	367	506	1619	305	829	1236	981	1381	959	623	584	615	388	1025	154	233	532	288	609	466	681	386	369	574	699	1421	1764	2381	822	894	821	538	227	610	990	728	839	405	274	1287	630	1909	1002	1112	626	266	624	185	662	1209	544	260	863	738	2176	823	150	61	3098	868	559	673	477	824	1824	2524	2078	1253	506	830	734	927	313	877	567	62	442	209	418	714	1213	1191	1354	511	902	2054	624	818	2031	496	606	426	977	377	392	981
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-05	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-29	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-17	--	10-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-29	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	10-07	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-17	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	10-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-18	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-22	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	10-05
Previous peak daily increment					63						191	28				72			95									56					70						58	74					53		44						35	39									29		293									165			56														32						58						41	75	71							79	36	55				73															59										160		86	75	75											61								73									51										74			609							65		102																67				242				181																					76							118					125		31		126					27												48			144								140	60		23									26	64	320				137								64		138
Low between peaks											50																	27																																			7																												8												11		21									21																			20												21	7												18																	14													69							13		40																13				47																									20							29					46		8							3												7																									80				17

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-03 to 2021-01-09

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-02	1459	2375	5355	3758	5341	6690	6685	2346	14109	18044	12865	2521	12214	4306	5138	5175	7273	14540	58800	4403	12318	6524	3497	17766	3329	11778	4207	34301	6444	3174	15158	5138	8150	19981	3147	15724	3694	5885	4428	6714	12149	10101	3373	8613	4142	6995	4610	5308	9105	8132	7954	2408	5112	13344	13342	3636	2457	2489	5063	5780	1533	2134	7018	1678	25832	13285	1855	3691	17545	4930	4681	6656	2354	11411	1709	15517	5555	5606	15556	16529	1587	2596	2854	5078	4702	2598	12680	5657	4421	3123	3000	1820	4758	18771	8701	3204	3966	3553	2809	2386	5190	1816	3066	9867	5020	4066	1965	6653	2946	12841	4509	6633	2522	7739	3154	12519	4532	4789	12083	2460	5877	3932	4146	18667	3889	5051	3061	14761	3604	3173	13194	3872	5018	3910	2750	9173	5456	2968	3891	13482	7839	23274	9809	14005	5648	43090	23237	2553	12466	3944	4996	29861	10938	8660	2238	1406	37090	4311	18595	1717	1814	9653	1229	1773	4143	7517	11759	2671	3182	4288	18076	5955	20672	1516	3862	6232	3313	3590	6376	1608	6278	8526	2483	3363	9773	11971	3579	20798	5118	3451	17250	5630	6594	8035	5657	8228	8966	5811	21308	5754	3013	5178	2975	6919	1525	15267	4279	4207	3226	14053	3685	3483	4459	4154	803	1137	15955	18332	4190	2985	13575	2964	4481	30499	8039	8257	8659	3136	3012	3191	4412	9281	990	2780	4342	3048	3147	2899	3566	4813	2894	5170	8139	7389	9277	13111	4288	4944	9587	5756	3749	2930	13380	10065	13425	3064	2385	14411	3283	9462	10034	6751	12318	3001	3265	1617	5910	4236	2750	1795	7901	3997	11577	5514	2402	726	18505	11147	3611	3041	2948	16814	14068	15504	13529	11310	4747	4797	3575	4475	2448	4163	3721	782	5889	3050	2539	3403	8551	20230	8783	3057	5171	13897	3918	5013	13738	2896	2411	3082	5746	4385	3083	7874
2021-01-03	1520	2443	5448	3983	5456	6852	6734	2453	14700	18560	12960	2556	12410	4367	5151	5269	7534	15340	60100	4459	12470	6601	3530	17890	3367	12080	4348	34300	6826	3292	15640	5235	8329	20250	3255	16140	3734	6037	4497	6852	12290	10190	3509	8880	4229	7154	4915	5585	9310	8245	8175	2455	5310	13710	13650	3636	2576	2510	5107	6107	1540	2203	7365	1737	26220	13560	1872	3778	17990	5043	4758	6688	2422	11670	1734	15520	5753	5706	15890	17240	1678	2628	2961	5195	4702	2650	12770	5728	4519	3248	3133	1893	4845	18910	8860	3301	4012	3584	2940	2442	5389	1816	3092	9990	5020	4161	2029	6791	3061	13230	4509	6683	2579	7739	3241	12760	4717	4914	12240	2581	6026	4072	4241	19270	3973	5221	3099	15400	3687	3309	13730	4026	5086	4062	2918	9210	5456	3034	4016	13490	7868	23430	9960	14010	5648	43510	23490	2661	12800	4022	5063	30440	11030	8812	2361	1435	37380	4311	18950	1734	1847	9690	1246	1857	4310	7644	11760	2789	3336	4291	18210	6050	21150	1534	3920	6261	3422	3633	6403	1697	6405	8604	2541	3425	10090	12160	3716	20970	5174	3498	17380	5762	6699	8176	5680	8228	9053	5937	21500	5811	3081	5294	3030	7035	1562	15390	4431	4236	3545	14090	3771	3537	4501	4316	823	1161	16110	18710	4234	3071	13930	3029	4647	30500	8212	8560	8860	3238	3087	3274	4412	9430	1020	2811	4433	3104	3231	2971	3702	4877	2894	5284	8261	7683	9410	13160	4536	5094	9780	5877	3784	3046	13530	10180	13460	3153	2422	14630	3361	9550	10200	6939	12440	3033	3380	1641	6071	4504	2840	1856	8066	3997	12250	5635	2410	735	18680	11270	3660	3217	3042	16940	14390	15870	13580	11570	4797	4946	3648	4688	2506	4399	3852	798	5972	3085	2619	3520	8780	20480	9080	3104	5371	14260	4007	5129	13990	2984	2454	3173	5794	4464	3143	8179
2021-01-04	1606	2510	5577	4160	5629	7018	6903	2558	15230	19090	13060	2589	12740	4481	5209	5363	7798	15830	61280	4513	12630	6672	3563	18030	3392	12530	4491	34470	7166	3449	16120	5372	8577	20510	3396	16540	3817	6185	4564	6987	12440	10290	3614	9140	4314	7291	5247	5798	9510	8351	8387	2507	5511	14050	13930	3678	2681	2533	5149	6456	1574	2272	7640	1793	26610	13840	1913	3967	18420	5151	4833	6859	2489	11940	1757	15650	5951	5805	16230	17810	1766	2658	3070	5304	4731	2697	12860	5800	4720	3397	3255	1952	4962	19450	9090	3382	4082	3615	3070	2498	5590	1867	3119	10120	5088	4256	2095	6933	3173	13600	4538	6868	2635	7857	3324	12990	4898	5035	12400	2700	6169	4192	4334	19870	4056	5377	3144	15890	3764	3422	14240	4156	5163	4192	3086	9340	5558	3099	4122	13610	8037	23630	10110	14240	5711	43970	23760	2767	13130	4097	5112	31040	11140	9035	2483	1465	37680	4351	19370	1752	1880	9920	1263	1937	4461	7762	11970	2899	3485	4342	18340	6123	21710	1553	3971	6289	3530	3676	6461	1757	6588	8676	2596	3486	10400	12370	3841	21150	5256	3543	17520	5889	6814	8311	5705	8296	9127	6083	22010	5866	3146	5418	3083	7182	1598	15540	4569	4263	3757	14180	3853	3592	4541	4536	842	1184	16270	19100	4277	3157	14230	3088	4812	30600	8375	8810	9051	3335	3158	3369	4475	9580	1048	2842	4537	3172	3365	3054	3816	4938	2923	5385	8388	7941	9680	13520	4766	5235	9980	5999	3817	3159	13700	10300	13560	3234	2457	14840	3469	9640	10340	7122	12570	3071	3504	1665	6230	4772	2932	1914	8221	4052	12830	5771	2418	745	19100	11470	3757	3344	3141	17070	14740	16240	13800	11820	4891	5096	3718	4855	2563	4629	3981	815	6051	3120	2723	3680	8990	20720	9360	3219	5564	14600	4094	5260	14420	3069	2532	3257	5917	4538	3202	8418
2021-01-05	1708	2575	5721	4395	5798	7262	7143	2667	16010	19850	13160	2621	13190	4620	5263	5455	8173	16600	62410	4568	12780	6742	3594	18150	3422	13070	4636	34680	7576	3639	16580	5585	8942	20850	3570	16930	3898	6334	4631	7126	12600	10390	3742	9480	4398	7482	5592	6116	9710	8456	8603	2590	5830	14400	14250	3730	2782	2555	5190	6966	1611	2339	7940	1860	26990	14110	1960	4248	18850	5261	4910	7064	2555	12190	1781	15820	6151	5902	16520	18550	1855	2688	3226	5416	4774	2743	12950	5871	4902	3657	3375	2040	5143	20190	9480	3531	4168	3646	3208	2552	5798	1942	3146	10290	5172	4353	2156	7075	3288	13970	4620	7065	2694	8018	3411	13220	5088	5178	12560	2827	6316	4400	4425	20480	4141	5584	3191	16520	3851	3563	14790	4342	5235	4343	3255	9580	5688	3163	4237	13780	8254	23830	10270	14650	5790	44400	24030	2880	13450	4172	5188	31550	11250	9304	2609	1493	37990	4389	19980	1769	1912	10270	1279	2018	4611	7892	12280	3027	3637	4409	18470	6204	22430	1572	4024	6316	3643	3717	6531	1832	6769	8772	2652	3546	10700	12580	4007	21310	5363	3589	17660	6020	6916	8537	5731	8423	9204	6303	22650	5920	3212	5594	3136	7365	1634	15690	4729	4291	4055	14320	3936	3646	4582	4815	861	1206	16420	19500	4319	3242	14540	3145	4984	30730	8540	9150	9235	3430	3228	3547	4548	9780	1075	2872	4650	3241	3508	3164	3969	4998	2972	5492	8523	8395	10070	13980	5040	5422	10150	6141	3851	3278	13870	10410	13710	3308	2492	15050	3624	9750	10580	7355	12670	3100	3689	1708	6368	5048	3021	1974	8372	4163	13530	5992	2427	754	19760	11720	3903	3525	3263	17240	15050	16590	14140	12070	5017	5303	3790	5037	2620	4875	4139	831	6131	3155	2856	3890	9210	20950	9660	3354	5772	14950	4179	5412	14950	3153	2699	3340	6131	4598	3260	8694
2021-01-06	1810	2639	5847	4580	5947	7435	7340	2774	16670	20470	13260	2652	13580	4730	5311	5547	8503	17340	63530	4621	12920	6810	3624	18270	3454	13560	4784	34860	7922	3805	17040	5765	9257	21140	3722	17340	4000	6482	4697	7264	12740	10470	3847	9870	4483	7619	6014	6402	9900	8558	8818	2657	6092	14730	14540	3770	2876	2579	5230	7446	1637	2405	8222	1919	27360	14380	2000	4468	19290	5371	4986	7293	2622	12390	1804	15940	6354	6000	16840	19290	1944	2718	3347	5526	4825	2787	13040	5941	5082	3868	3486	2111	5295	20880	9800	3681	4246	3677	3348	2605	6012	1977	3173	10480	5246	4450	2206	7221	3405	14330	4669	7271	2753	8156	3496	13460	5282	5312	12730	2958	6463	4514	4516	21110	4225	5778	3237	17250	3916	3714	15340	4497	5285	4495	3425	9780	5797	3227	4342	13900	8473	24010	10430	14990	5863	44800	24280	2995	13770	4247	5239	32050	11360	9516	2736	1522	38280	4412	20480	1785	1944	10600	1296	2098	4759	8014	12510	3134	3787	4459	18600	6290	23160	1590	4084	6343	3757	3759	6586	1888	6919	8862	2708	3605	11000	12760	4153	21480	5463	3634	17810	6150	7006	8696	5757	8515	9287	6470	23330	5973	3278	5733	3188	7538	1671	15820	4868	4318	4232	14430	4020	3701	4622	5084	880	1229	16560	19850	4360	3329	14830	3200	5161	30830	8701	9490	9381	3524	3298	3653	4603	9950	1103	2902	4767	3295	3641	3289	4112	5057	3000	5603	8654	8835	10480	14420	5265	5580	10290	6279	3884	3398	14050	10520	13860	3375	2525	15270	3772	9860	10780	7558	12780	3127	3816	1743	6515	5327	3112	2033	8518	4255	14230	6142	2435	764	20410	11950	4011	3690	3368	17370	15350	16950	14470	12320	5100	5488	3859	5208	2677	5124	4258	847	6205	3190	2975	4057	9420	21140	9950	3471	5981	15320	4264	5555	15470	3234	2873	3419	6293	4667	3317	8965
2021-01-07	1937	2703	6008	4783	6107	7548	7479	2883	17330	21050	13350	2683	13770	4887	5351	5639	8894	17780	64480	4675	13050	6878	3654	18380	3478	13910	4935	35030	8272	3976	17500	5894	9591	21410	3856	17740	4074	6632	4764	7405	12890	10530	3947	10280	4569	7716	6488	6584	10100	8660	9034	2738	6330	15060	14800	3799	2964	2603	5270	7949	1679	2472	8502	1978	27730	14650	2037	4700	19730	5482	5063	7486	2689	12580	1827	16090	6565	6098	17090	20250	2035	2747	3501	5636	4849	2832	13120	6013	5235	4139	3597	2211	5426	21400	10060	3850	4331	3707	3494	2659	6234	2012	3200	10510	5292	4549	2257	7370	3526	14700	4725	7492	2813	8289	3584	13700	5483	5432	12890	3094	6613	4601	4608	21760	4310	5923	3268	18070	3996	3818	15910	4630	5329	4619	3599	9940	5880	3292	4433	13980	8722	24160	10590	15220	5944	45130	24520	3115	14090	4323	5282	32520	11470	9676	2866	1550	38570	4446	20790	1802	1976	10940	1312	2180	4877	8101	12730	3263	3937	4504	18730	6364	23750	1609	4124	6370	3874	3801	6621	1950	7111	8934	2764	3665	11300	12900	4280	21650	5530	3680	17970	6284	7114	8836	5783	8598	9361	6649	24030	6026	3346	5846	3240	7680	1708	15960	4979	4345	4416	14510	4105	3756	4662	5372	899	1251	16680	20180	4401	3416	15110	3254	5344	30910	8865	9750	9514	3618	3368	3791	4655	10110	1131	2932	4881	3346	3757	3418	4204	5116	3013	5695	8756	8926	10740	14860	5532	5713	10450	6387	3917	3522	14220	10630	13970	3441	2559	15480	3929	9970	10930	7765	12880	3157	3978	1784	6630	5615	3204	2094	8665	4330	14710	6233	2443	773	20940	12170	4062	3848	3489	17480	15660	17310	14680	12580	5182	5645	3929	5367	2735	5384	4390	863	6277	3225	3100	4252	9620	21340	10250	3621	6196	15680	4349	5676	16050	3316	2873	3498	6435	4722	3376	9096
2021-01-08	2000	2768	6105	4905	6190	7625	7589	2995	17680	21380	13450	2715	13980	4959	5381	5732	9142	18070	65100	4729	13120	6947	3685	18470	3494	14190	5088	35160	8514	4093	17960	5998	9691	21610	3914	18150	4146	6783	4833	7549	12990	10590	3989	10470	4658	7785	6875	6757	10300	8763	9252	2788	6503	15390	14990	3826	3013	2627	5310	8352	1707	2539	8707	2023	28110	14930	2063	4880	20170	5594	5142	7593	2757	12740	1850	16170	6782	6197	17290	20720	2128	2777	3617	5747	4871	2878	13210	6086	5388	4298	3661	2265	5507	21750	10200	3932	4386	3738	3646	2713	6465	2030	3227	10560	5330	4650	2273	7523	3651	15080	4737	7647	2874	8304	3674	13940	5692	5530	13060	3238	6767	4686	4701	22430	4396	6017	3287	18480	4046	3902	16510	4731	5357	4714	3777	10010	5919	3357	4487	14040	8844	24270	10750	15310	5984	45380	24680	3240	14410	4401	5309	33000	11580	9800	3001	1579	38750	4451	21040	1819	2009	11100	1329	2263	4954	8178	12860	3363	4091	4536	18860	6423	23980	1628	4159	6397	3996	3843	6651	1981	7234	8976	2822	3725	11600	12980	4361	21810	5570	3727	18060	6420	7171	8934	5809	8598	9409	6778	24380	6079	3414	5943	3293	7748	1746	16050	5058	4372	4598	14580	4193	3813	4702	5562	918	1274	16760	20420	4442	3505	15400	3309	5534	30940	9033	9970	9620	3714	3438	3886	4685	10230	1161	2962	4953	3399	3853	3501	4275	5176	3017	5768	8819	9058	10930	15050	5711	5809	10580	6479	3951	3652	14330	10740	14060	3470	2594	15610	4035	10080	11020	7880	12940	3179	4104	1803	6729	5915	3297	2157	8812	4344	15170	6314	2451	783	21230	12310	4121	3963	3558	17550	15840	17680	14740	12830	5243	5741	3999	5441	2795	5658	4487	880	6317	3260	3176	4378	9830	21520	10570	3686	6420	15890	4435	5773	16400	3399	2900	3578	6535	4763	3434	9218
2021-01-09	2036	2834	6179	5057	6255	7739	7723	3110	18180	21780	13550	2746	14260	4993	5434	5826	9315	18460	66020	4784	13240	7015	3716	18600	3521	14590	5244	35330	8745	4195	18430	6120	9952	21890	4035	18560	4224	6935	4902	7695	13070	10660	4069	10710	4748	7892	6875	6895	10510	8866	9473	2826	6653	15720	15300	3873	3078	2652	5351	8619	1742	2607	8960	2057	28490	15220	2108	5050	20610	5706	5221	7725	2826	12930	1872	16290	7006	6297	17570	21060	2225	2806	3695	5859	4913	2925	13300	6160	5523	4418	3754	2304	5610	22200	10410	4019	4431	3770	3804	2767	6704	2079	3254	10700	5401	4755	2311	7680	3781	15460	4833	7939	2936	8454	3766	14180	5910	5596	13230	3388	6924	4793	4795	23120	4483	6140	3315	18900	4088	4001	17120	4863	5411	4825	3960	10200	6012	3423	4582	14140	8982	24420	10910	15600	6054	45690	24930	3371	14740	4479	5350	33470	11690	9972	3142	1608	39000	4508	21410	1836	2042	11310	1345	2348	5059	8263	13150	3439	4247	4578	18990	6467	24480	1648	4204	6424	4122	3885	6702	2038	7308	9047	2881	3786	11900	13130	4452	21980	5648	3774	18140	6559	7269	9086	5835	8730	9466	6896	24880	6132	3485	6082	3346	7885	1785	16130	5166	4400	4660	14660	4282	3870	4743	5722	937	1297	16860	20800	4484	3595	15700	3365	5730	31110	9203	10190	9751	3811	3509	3989	4738	10390	1191	2993	5031	3432	3969	3552	4392	5235	3057	5858	8908	9359	11150	15340	5824	5929	10730	6554	3984	3786	14500	10850	14180	3515	2628	15780	4129	10190	11150	8076	13030	3209	4201	1821	6845	6226	3390	2222	8961	4431	15450	6430	2459	793	21590	12380	4184	4058	3596	17660	16120	18050	14990	13100	5313	5875	4070	5565	2856	5945	4567	896	6398	3296	3221	4456	10040	21700	10890	3733	6652	16260	4521	5885	16720	3483	3018	3658	6678	4812	3493	9347

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-03 to 2021-01-09

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-02	1459	2375	5355	3758	5341	6690	6685	2346	14109	18044	12865	2521	12214	4306	5138	5175	7273	14540	58800	4403	12318	6524	3497	17766	3329	11778	4207	34301	6444	3174	15158	5138	8150	19981	3147	15724	3694	5885	4428	6714	12149	10101	3373	8613	4142	6995	4610	5308	9105	8132	7954	2408	5112	13344	13342	3636	2457	2489	5063	5780	1533	2134	7018	1678	25832	13285	1855	3691	17545	4930	4681	6656	2354	11411	1709	15517	5555	5606	15556	16529	1587	2596	2854	5078	4702	2598	12680	5657	4421	3123	3000	1820	4758	18771	8701	3204	3966	3553	2809	2386	5190	1816	3066	9867	5020	4066	1965	6653	2946	12841	4509	6633	2522	7739	3154	12519	4532	4789	12083	2460	5877	3932	4146	18667	3889	5051	3061	14761	3604	3173	13194	3872	5018	3910	2750	9173	5456	2968	3891	13482	7839	23274	9809	14005	5648	43090	23237	2553	12466	3944	4996	29861	10938	8660	2238	1406	37090	4311	18595	1717	1814	9653	1229	1773	4143	7517	11759	2671	3182	4288	18076	5955	20672	1516	3862	6232	3313	3590	6376	1608	6278	8526	2483	3363	9773	11971	3579	20798	5118	3451	17250	5630	6594	8035	5657	8228	8966	5811	21308	5754	3013	5178	2975	6919	1525	15267	4279	4207	3226	14053	3685	3483	4459	4154	803	1137	15955	18332	4190	2985	13575	2964	4481	30499	8039	8257	8659	3136	3012	3191	4412	9281	990	2780	4342	3048	3147	2899	3566	4813	2894	5170	8139	7389	9277	13111	4288	4944	9587	5756	3749	2930	13380	10065	13425	3064	2385	14411	3283	9462	10034	6751	12318	3001	3265	1617	5910	4236	2750	1795	7901	3997	11577	5514	2402	726	18505	11147	3611	3041	2948	16814	14068	15504	13529	11310	4747	4797	3575	4475	2448	4163	3721	782	5889	3050	2539	3403	8551	20230	8783	3057	5171	13897	3918	5013	13738	2896	2411	3082	5746	4385	3083	7874
2021-01-03	1505	2440	5436	3916	5427	6810	6834	2431	14580	18640	12950	2554	12510	4389	5186	5259	7468	14910	59820	4456	12450	6581	3537	17880	3347	12090	4336	34460	6710	3261	15590	5269	8374	20250	3246	16170	3774	6049	4476	6817	12250	10190	3460	8820	4207	7103	4767	5494	9340	8208	8199	2451	5277	13580	13610	3677	2532	2543	5117	6027	1566	2197	7254	1718	26160	13510	1890	3815	18030	5067	4734	6811	2423	11620	1728	15640	5725	5692	15830	16940	1646	2627	2924	5209	4735	2641	12790	5738	4552	3224	3088	1877	4896	19250	8930	3287	4022	3587	2892	2440	5308	1855	3095	9980	5085	4155	2007	6815	3023	13200	4603	6782	2566	7891	3210	12850	4698	4891	12410	2553	5976	4034	4259	19100	3967	5199	3095	15200	3653	3277	13590	3988	5078	4011	2922	9360	5563	3028	3990	13580	8003	23430	10000	14300	5695	43450	23490	2645	12840	4001	5040	30350	11130	8860	2336	1432	37360	4359	19020	1734	1853	9890	1245	1830	4267	7618	12040	2747	3270	4334	18170	6012	21240	1531	3908	6267	3400	3639	6433	1666	6371	8601	2519	3417	9990	12130	3675	20970	5201	3490	17350	5725	6675	8150	5733	8384	9029	5937	21820	5809	3080	5374	3024	7087	1559	15380	4391	4243	3328	14160	3758	3560	4505	4329	821	1161	16080	18690	4242	3064	13840	3016	4605	30660	8202	8465	8815	3219	3091	3302	4465	9430	1019	2812	4429	3092	3242	2981	3672	4869	2940	5269	8240	7630	9520	13390	4431	5092	9710	5846	3783	3023	13540	10170	13550	3120	2425	14580	3389	9750	10150	6920	12420	3031	3370	1643	6026	4442	2825	1836	8034	4099	11960	5660	2424	732	18900	11260	3688	3171	3014	16930	14350	15890	13760	11510	4819	4923	3677	4614	2499	4310	3816	792	5958	3081	2602	3504	8710	20420	9030	3131	5311	14180	4044	5141	14030	2977	2489	3144	5873	4440	3139	8037
2021-01-04	1562	2500	5526	4094	5528	6963	7015	2513	15050	19240	13050	2579	12830	4487	5236	5355	7679	15320	60710	4506	12590	6631	3574	17980	3371	12410	4499	34620	6988	3366	16020	5423	8615	20470	3344	16690	3830	6254	4529	6912	12340	10270	3545	9070	4271	7233	4912	5675	9570	8278	8453	2485	5440	13800	13860	3714	2611	2615	5165	6268	1596	2258	7512	1755	26480	13720	1921	3988	18530	5231	4793	7011	2484	11810	1752	15770	5892	5778	16090	17330	1702	2660	2996	5361	4763	2677	12890	5822	4708	3330	3180	1930	5059	19840	9190	3358	4068	3624	2982	2493	5441	1913	3123	10100	5145	4240	2059	7002	3103	13640	4717	6906	2617	8102	3263	13250	4890	4959	12710	2658	6068	4150	4374	19500	4043	5371	3129	15640	3702	3389	14040	4102	5147	4126	3110	9630	5708	3086	4099	13690	8201	23610	10140	14680	5757	43820	23740	2747	13250	4056	5084	30730	11310	9090	2443	1454	37620	4423	19440	1753	1893	10190	1265	1887	4413	7709	12420	2822	3349	4384	18250	6063	21940	1548	3954	6300	3497	3685	6486	1740	6475	8669	2549	3466	10200	12290	3771	21130	5289	3529	17440	5820	6757	8262	5820	8570	9090	6079	22430	5860	3134	5553	3067	7295	1588	15480	4527	4272	3438	14250	3821	3643	4554	4525	834	1184	16200	19000	4306	3151	14050	3052	4748	30840	8335	8674	8962	3311	3197	3400	4524	9570	1045	2848	4522	3131	3359	3057	3787	4919	2997	5345	8338	7879	9830	13790	4569	5256	9810	5918	3822	3133	13690	10280	13650	3187	2463	14760	3483	10090	10300	7073	12520	3070	3479	1667	6121	4657	2910	1874	8149	4231	12410	5797	2442	743	19410	11350	3785	3282	3088	17070	14620	16290	14150	11680	4885	5071	3783	4769	2540	4470	3923	809	6013	3114	2661	3615	8899	20570	9220	3208	5464	14470	4146	5293	14300	3043	2579	3199	6034	4492	3195	8184
2021-01-05	1624	2560	5620	4311	5633	7156	7245	2597	15770	20050	13140	2606	13210	4605	5284	5455	7935	15810	61610	4555	12720	6684	3612	18090	3395	12770	4667	34810	7313	3490	16650	5615	8909	20740	3449	17270	3908	6492	4580	7010	12440	10350	3647	9380	4344	7394	5060	5900	9850	8357	8755	2537	5657	14050	14140	3756	2688	2687	5229	6578	1626	2320	7762	1797	26850	13940	1954	4247	19270	5409	4856	7228	2548	12010	1779	15930	6074	5872	16330	17890	1759	2697	3096	5530	4795	2720	12990	5913	4857	3527	3286	1994	5252	20540	9530	3491	4128	3662	3077	2558	5577	1992	3154	10220	5211	4332	2110	7226	3186	14170	4845	7028	2675	8331	3317	13680	5098	5047	13090	2770	6166	4287	4505	19940	4128	5569	3164	16200	3753	3523	14510	4235	5211	4250	3304	9930	5869	3144	4219	13820	8424	23790	10290	15250	5829	44190	24000	2879	13710	4115	5130	31080	11530	9360	2576	1482	37860	4484	20060	1772	1935	10530	1293	1945	4569	7810	12840	2905	3436	4449	18330	6115	22770	1566	4001	6335	3595	3739	6544	1825	6579	8749	2580	3519	10430	12450	3873	21300	5400	3567	17540	5926	6848	8459	5917	8785	9152	6232	23080	5911	3190	5800	3114	7520	1619	15600	4667	4302	3604	14390	3899	3733	4606	4779	849	1207	16330	19330	4356	3243	14250	3099	4912	31030	8469	8906	9115	3406	3311	3576	4589	9720	1067	2885	4627	3172	3485	3157	3940	4976	3064	5442	8437	8241	10200	14350	4727	5445	9920	6001	3854	3252	13830	10390	13770	3260	2512	14930	3628	10460	10500	7250	12610	3110	3615	1701	6210	4900	2999	1916	8307	4394	12980	5990	2461	754	20060	11470	3914	3430	3183	17230	14870	16790	14610	11840	4984	5246	3900	4987	2589	4637	4052	827	6082	3147	2748	3748	9124	20730	9450	3308	5634	14770	4281	5456	14620	3118	2702	3262	6221	4539	3254	8336
2021-01-06	1691	2621	5710	4497	5733	7321	7448	2682	16390	20740	13230	2633	13560	4717	5330	5542	8195	16300	62510	4604	12860	6738	3649	18190	3419	13110	4839	34970	7626	3607	17290	5794	9173	20990	3561	17830	3994	6699	4630	7114	12520	10430	3738	9730	4417	7524	5232	6116	10120	8424	9043	2586	5867	14320	14380	3793	2760	2762	5278	6883	1655	2383	8038	1836	27230	14150	1985	4456	19930	5575	4913	7461	2606	12180	1800	16050	6263	5963	16590	18470	1818	2731	3180	5685	4828	2761	13080	6006	5008	3681	3388	2057	5440	21230	9850	3618	4182	3700	3172	2620	5716	2039	3188	10360	5275	4422	2159	7440	3260	14670	4964	7152	2733	8549	3374	14120	5315	5129	13470	2887	6267	4404	4621	20440	4224	5769	3198	16750	3801	3675	15010	4356	5264	4373	3507	10230	6014	3203	4329	13920	8650	23960	10430	15760	5904	44540	24240	3003	14160	4178	5174	31430	11720	9590	2710	1514	38100	4537	20600	1791	1975	10890	1313	2004	4721	7909	13250	2983	3522	4500	18410	6169	23620	1584	4049	6371	3696	3787	6596	1891	6681	8827	2611	3567	10660	12600	3976	21470	5504	3605	17630	6035	6931	8596	5994	8979	9216	6382	23760	5961	3243	6009	3159	7747	1649	15700	4808	4331	3709	14510	3970	3833	4658	5032	863	1232	16450	19650	4415	3331	14460	3145	5071	31200	8604	9145	9257	3498	3426	3684	4644	9870	1090	2922	4737	3209	3594	3268	4093	5026	3122	5536	8535	8583	10580	14830	4875	5623	10020	6085	3889	3376	13980	10490	13900	3324	2553	15110	3766	10830	10690	7418	12700	3149	3736	1734	6305	5111	3084	1958	8438	4551	13470	6146	2486	765	20710	11580	4026	3563	3273	17360	15130	17270	15050	12020	5052	5418	4015	5173	2639	4809	4160	839	6143	3181	2825	3867	9359	20870	9650	3395	5805	15090	4382	5617	14940	3196	2823	3324	6407	4589	3313	8488
2021-01-07	1758	2682	5801	4672	5818	7458	7609	2771	16950	21420	13320	2655	13810	4805	5370	5610	8455	16750	63310	4654	12960	6785	3678	18270	3446	13450	5017	35140	7911	3696	17690	5947	9444	21200	3664	18390	4051	6934	4684	7212	12610	10490	3813	10080	4482	7637	5392	6319	10320	8488	9333	2630	6036	14540	14600	3823	2829	2838	5311	7142	1689	2447	8302	1875	27510	14370	2014	4637	20510	5736	4968	7678	2661	12340	1823	16160	6434	6056	16820	19040	1878	2763	3258	5851	4852	2792	13150	6075	5142	3827	3467	2131	5619	21800	10140	3736	4233	3738	3264	2659	5859	2077	3214	10450	5320	4505	2208	7640	3348	15180	5087	7277	2787	8771	3422	14530	5522	5199	13780	2990	6360	4517	4719	21040	4302	5947	3223	17320	3850	3762	15520	4463	5314	4480	3715	10520	6144	3263	4427	14000	8894	24090	10550	16170	5962	44790	24430	3111	14620	4232	5216	31760	11910	9760	2829	1537	38340	4595	20930	1811	2015	11240	1328	2064	4853	7989	13650	3060	3609	4541	18490	6220	24390	1602	4090	6395	3800	3828	6635	1956	6788	8888	2642	3612	10880	12730	4074	21620	5573	3644	17720	6119	7014	8711	6081	9165	9277	6536	24430	6011	3296	6194	3202	7956	1680	15780	4949	4361	3825	14570	4041	3922	4708	5259	877	1257	16540	19870	4451	3421	14660	3180	5241	31350	8741	9362	9388	3587	3535	3787	4684	10000	1107	2955	4823	3245	3681	3352	4184	5071	3177	5613	8620	8713	10870	15270	5029	5794	10100	6156	3921	3490	14130	10600	14000	3384	2593	15270	3889	11200	10840	7589	12790	3182	3854	1765	6372	5280	3171	1997	8540	4695	13890	6258	2503	775	21260	11680	4099	3679	3343	17450	15380	17720	15470	12200	5110	5576	4123	5324	2682	4987	4268	853	6195	3214	2887	3988	9592	20970	9830	3471	5993	15420	4472	5763	15250	3250	2887	3379	6580	4634	3370	8626
2021-01-08	1819	2747	5884	4814	5868	7581	7771	2864	17320	21920	13420	2679	14060	4865	5403	5678	8680	17200	64050	4705	13050	6831	3705	18350	3469	13770	5200	35260	8167	3762	18170	6104	9653	21370	3762	18920	4092	7124	4731	7307	12700	10560	3883	10340	4548	7734	5534	6489	10500	8551	9583	2658	6188	14760	14810	3849	2891	2917	5332	7375	1716	2513	8564	1905	27790	14590	2043	4800	20870	5889	5015	7858	2720	12480	1841	16230	6599	6142	17050	19480	1941	2792	3314	6001	4878	2824	13210	6128	5280	3909	3548	2186	5780	22360	10370	3815	4272	3776	3360	2705	6005	2093	3236	10550	5360	4595	2252	7828	3428	15650	5201	7396	2836	8939	3467	14970	5735	5259	14020	3105	6455	4629	4827	21490	4383	6110	3247	17750	3894	3839	16020	4573	5360	4583	3945	10770	6241	3324	4504	14070	9076	24180	10690	16470	6002	45020	24580	3221	15030	4284	5257	32090	12050	9880	2954	1557	38540	4648	21170	1830	2050	11530	1346	2126	4976	8056	14030	3128	3682	4563	18570	6270	25060	1620	4131	6420	3906	3869	6672	2006	6889	8942	2670	3656	11090	12850	4170	21780	5621	3683	17800	6210	7076	8788	6146	9309	9333	6687	25050	6063	3340	6339	3245	8143	1709	15840	5090	4388	3914	14620	4097	3994	4754	5412	889	1278	16620	20120	4476	3508	14870	3208	5387	31500	8882	9576	9506	3678	3656	3871	4719	10120	1126	2983	4882	3279	3755	3418	4269	5112	3222	5673	8701	8878	11180	15540	5158	5961	10180	6216	3951	3623	14240	10690	14060	3429	2630	15430	3969	11550	10950	7743	12860	3214	3971	1788	6443	5440	3260	2038	8653	4835	14310	6366	2516	784	21720	11760	4173	3794	3400	17520	15610	18070	15800	12340	5151	5721	4233	5432	2723	5174	4348	865	6237	3248	2924	4093	9808	21070	9990	3529	6163	15690	4530	5895	15480	3314	2954	3430	6744	4678	3421	8766
2021-01-09	1875	2812	5967	5000	5922	7729	7928	2959	17840	22530	13510	2700	14350	4937	5445	5755	8890	17710	64940	4756	13170	6883	3734	18460	3491	14120	5390	35390	8428	3846	18740	6264	9894	21570	3872	19490	4147	7343	4778	7400	12770	10630	3971	10610	4619	7849	5641	6649	10690	8615	9833	2690	6354	14990	15070	3878	2964	2998	5369	7637	1744	2580	8848	1938	28090	14810	2075	4969	21390	6050	5059	8041	2785	12630	1864	16330	6784	6231	17310	19940	2005	2822	3380	6161	4907	2857	13300	6205	5407	4028	3646	2242	5961	22980	10630	3907	4307	3815	3462	2759	6156	2128	3261	10660	5405	4687	2302	8047	3508	16150	5335	7534	2893	9153	3518	15420	5968	5317	14380	3221	6553	4751	4933	21930	4470	6300	3275	18300	3937	3943	16560	4694	5419	4691	4191	11080	6359	3386	4606	14150	9261	24300	10840	16890	6059	45280	24780	3343	15450	4342	5301	32430	12230	10050	3088	1583	38740	4712	21550	1850	2083	11850	1364	2191	5123	8124	14460	3209	3757	4592	18650	6315	25850	1639	4176	6449	4017	3918	6715	2071	6984	9011	2698	3698	11310	13000	4261	21940	5690	3723	17880	6295	7151	8915	6228	9504	9388	6842	25700	6114	3385	6540	3292	8369	1737	15910	5239	4418	4002	14690	4157	4082	4804	5611	902	1304	16720	20410	4501	3603	15090	3248	5542	31680	9025	9800	9641	3773	3780	3981	4766	10260	1152	3012	4948	3307	3867	3484	4389	5154	3281	5754	8789	9136	11490	15940	5274	6149	10280	6271	3981	3756	14390	10790	14140	3486	2667	15590	4077	11940	11100	7915	12950	3250	4085	1811	6526	5644	3357	2079	8758	4990	14640	6500	2533	794	22190	11840	4252	3923	3454	17620	15870	18490	16170	12510	5197	5886	4353	5580	2765	5369	4432	880	6291	3283	2965	4184	10000	21210	10160	3601	6349	15970	4609	6053	15720	3384	3052	3483	6919	4725	3479	8908

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-02