COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-05

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	--	--	--	12-07	--	--	--	12-22	12-21	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-25	--	10-12	11-15	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	12-22	--	--	--	12-21	--	12-22	--	--	10-25	11-03	12-25	--	--	12-08	--	12-22	12-25	12-25	12-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-25	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	12-06	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	11-01	--	--	--	12-21	--	12-22	12-25	12-22	--	--	09-27	--	12-21	12-25	--	12-22	--	--	--	--	12-22	--	--	--	--	--	12-22	12-25	12-21	--	--	--	--	--	12-13	--	12-22	--	12-24	--	--	--	--	12-25	--	--	--	12-22	--	12-22	--	--	11-02	--	10-27	--	12-21	--	09-27	--	--	--	--	11-29	--	--	--	--	--	09-22	--	12-21	11-03	--	12-25	12-21	--	--	--	12-22	--	--	--	09-26	11-04	--	12-10	--	10-25	--	--	11-04	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	12-21	11-03	--	12-22	--	12-22	--	10-18	12-13	10-11	12-13	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-19	--	11-01	--	--	--	12-25	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-09	12-24	--	12-25	--	--	--	--	--	12-22	--	--	--	--	--	10-31	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	12-07	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	--	--	12-22	--	12-22	--	--	10-29	--	--	12-22	--	--	12-25	--	--	--	--	12-25	12-13	--	12-09	12-21	--	12-22	12-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Peak daily increment						172				612	103				77							64		235	49			441				161				535		199			159	141	128			147		189	278	106	273																				80					249		115							109		226				134		159	675	276			75		84	145		33					183						212	64	412						133		469		168					538				259		140			285		360		415		541					117						609		416	29		307	54				384				391	85		23		159			108			121						609			257						101		648	94		191		202		196	140	64	94	199							237		84				141	438												82	113		137						314						57				194						184		177									133	363	138			580		89			261			394			158					90	18		41	74		227	234
Days since peak						29				14	15				71							11		85	51			68				14				15		14			72	63	11			28		14	11	11	14																				11					83		30							64		65				15		14	11	14			100		15	11		14					14						14	11	15						23		14		12					11				14		14			64		70		15		100					37						105		15	63		11	15				14				101	62		26		72			62			63						97			72						85		15	63		14		14		79	23	86	23	80							78		65				11	98												57	12		11						14						66				65						29		79									15	15	15			14		14			68			14			11					11	23		27	15		14	15
Last total	1681	2700	5679	4266	5680	7210	7305	2558	15729	19905	13166	2739	13339	4731	5297	5504	8096	16004	62795	4637	12846	6708	3707	18239	3423	13311	4595	34999	7102	3500	16781	5499	9209	21086	3475	17281	4005	6505	4618	7142	12578	10391	3708	9482	4434	7525	5178	5853	9917	8399	8751	2595	5903	14131	14231	3815	2738	2699	5255	6564	1737	2504	8060	1783	27027	14252	1975	4325	19665	5386	4918	7304	2565	12155	1795	15995	6128	5918	16610	18171	1759	2783	3092	5628	4820	2754	13057	6014	4958	3644	3271	2010	5160	20877	9509	3493	4177	3756	3104	2585	5626	2022	3180	10271	5307	4390	2168	7215	3205	14415	4887	7386	2735	8439	3290	13912	5165	5179	13193	2741	6227	4297	4533	20211	4223	5537	3208	16243	3794	3565	14595	4292	5287	4344	3381	10244	5927	3196	4217	13848	8399	23928	10785	15525	5963	44357	24138	2924	14040	4177	5170	32300	12003	9300	2499	1518	38332	4577	19961	1782	1977	10508	1364	1981	4562	7896	12854	2929	3556	4507	18489	6184	23228	1579	4026	6358	3658	3754	6526	1784	6680	8800	2598	3538	10677	12466	3890	21514	5408	3593	17701	6040	6971	8488	5987	8830	9230	6374	23346	6061	3247	5695	3140	7395	1655	15730	4649	4390	3480	14483	3922	3778	4682	4736	837	1197	16502	19795	4367	3235	14935	3192	4894	31381	8741	9051	9192	3445	3279	3557	4643	9939	1065	2912	4597	3215	3384	3140	3890	4990	3148	5510	8460	8162	10221	14750	4711	5380	10286	6088	3884	3274	13949	10502	13931	3260	2519	15085	3635	10385	10627	7345	12688	3186	3649	1788	6349	5130	2993	1946	8383	4326	12716	5938	2563	775	20501	11642	3910	3366	3261	17307	15065	17067	14816	12062	4979	5172	3945	5015	2692	4638	3972	820	6176	3152	2767	3791	9280	20903	9647	3293	5618	15310	4249	5457	14949	3250	2802	3380	6388	4584	3305	8541
Last daily increment	46	86	75	118	73	105	126	60	400	485	81	62	270	127	53	116	169	372	1061	52	143	46	59	138	28	450	92	213	156	90	402	72	227	365	95	295	81	134	45	121	137	85	84	174	81	149	184	119	175	79	182	70	168	249	266	48	67	53	58	176	53	112	306	37	294	244	31	136	408	92	69	180	54	215	27	134	163	72	307	424	30	60	58	117	43	41	100	71	120	165	84	64	116	482	150	54	42	63	77	42	146	66	30	120	72	112	65	164	72	331	99	199	54	155	36	312	137	114	313	85	90	80	75	314	92	105	36	403	50	100	360	101	65	112	140	228	105	86	93	110	123	204	307	305	91	361	259	114	332	62	40	718	232	167	50	27	398	61	348	10	54	155	51	52	100	104	252	82	98	55	128	69	547	24	38	40	77	46	36	38	139	96	28	44	209	146	62	180	80	35	140	77	94	136	121	197	86	148	437	73	51	117	54	92	25	139	81	52	67	147	62	103	59	161	10	15	190	413	53	64	428	83	85	221	189	240	153	96	71	87	48	209	22	31	64	61	61	52	64	51	79	104	105	209	186	342	120	79	202	100	24	66	173	116	140	67	58	174	91	184	133	148	107	37	90	66	115	150	39	47	105	86	267	88	45	14	339	135	78	70	59	134	267	274	279	218	58	89	103	139	63	140	59	8	90	35	44	101	184	173	263	69	125	418	89	100	329	84	91	83	173	59	72	195
Last week	344	515	546	858	599	798	964	441	2654	3004	553	326	1804	637	296	565	1274	2418	6729	405	896	345	327	800	170	2489	673	1225	1265	572	2762	675	1734	1817	602	2513	532	975	337	723	700	534	525	1357	496	806	1022	968	1319	521	1382	312	1203	1431	1654	311	478	337	334	1429	320	565	1619	201	2099	1657	239	1018	3271	778	399	1019	400	1291	150	843	1053	572	1875	2822	339	279	437	840	223	264	657	592	912	818	511	346	752	3307	1345	522	376	280	505	348	720	332	189	710	481	565	313	988	479	2430	665	1305	322	1080	303	2129	980	661	1859	511	592	614	689	2620	563	790	236	2422	332	631	2449	747	428	726	1134	1530	759	399	576	647	1036	1111	1572	2284	510	2237	1594	598	2382	393	299	3907	1547	1111	470	185	2024	426	2287	113	260	1467	174	360	700	647	1889	458	614	364	705	389	3888	102	288	219	593	275	283	304	665	473	219	331	1511	894	565	1240	481	262	739	665	680	799	523	1021	434	914	3462	483	427	904	322	871	230	767	657	306	480	701	424	496	374	1032	85	134	891	2550	330	471	2192	372	707	1377	1181	1329	956	525	453	605	397	1113	154	195	461	292	498	421	548	372	370	583	601	1317	1530	2421	760	752	1108	592	224	556	1030	726	889	359	261	1195	603	1608	972	1114	663	260	629	239	756	1392	445	273	809	584	1900	701	224	66	2930	859	468	596	466	797	1863	2466	1947	1349	465	682	647	881	373	855	475	59	502	188	364	700	1134	1204	1480	426	790	2396	587	753	2206	588	595	494	978	363	390	1097
Previous peak date	--	10-28	10-26	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	10-05	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	10-19	10-11	10-25	--	--	10-28	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-29	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-27	04-22	--	10-19	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	09-16	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-28	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	10-05	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	10-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	10-18	10-13	--	10-25	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-18	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	10-24	10-18	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	10-12	--	10-05
Previous peak daily increment		27	77		63						191	28				79					168	98	58			139		56					70	333					58	74					53		44			132			35	40		53			65				34		305									180			56														32						58						41	133	76							79	36	56				73									45						65										152		99	75	80					555						66								79									53										74											74								42									70								192										73	143							24	73		83							121				192	135		35		138					27												47			144								140	60		23						98		22	26		320				138				41				64		141
Low between peaks											50											28						27																						32																																									6												11											20																																7																																																										21																																			11																								2																																		5			77

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-06 to 2021-01-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-05	1681	2700	5679	4266	5680	7210	7305	2558	15729	19905	13166	2739	13339	4731	5297	5504	8096	16004	62795	4637	12846	6708	3707	18239	3423	13311	4595	34999	7102	3500	16781	5499	9209	21086	3475	17281	4005	6505	4618	7142	12578	10391	3708	9482	4434	7525	5178	5853	9917	8399	8751	2595	5903	14131	14231	3815	2738	2699	5255	6564	1737	2504	8060	1783	27027	14252	1975	4325	19665	5386	4918	7304	2565	12155	1795	15995	6128	5918	16610	18171	1759	2783	3092	5628	4820	2754	13057	6014	4958	3644	3271	2010	5160	20877	9509	3493	4177	3756	3104	2585	5626	2022	3180	10271	5307	4390	2168	7215	3205	14415	4887	7386	2735	8439	3290	13912	5165	5179	13193	2741	6227	4297	4533	20211	4223	5537	3208	16243	3794	3565	14595	4292	5287	4344	3381	10244	5927	3196	4217	13848	8399	23928	10785	15525	5963	44357	24138	2924	14040	4177	5170	32300	12003	9300	2499	1518	38332	4577	19961	1782	1977	10508	1364	1981	4562	7896	12854	2929	3556	4507	18489	6184	23228	1579	4026	6358	3658	3754	6526	1784	6680	8800	2598	3538	10677	12466	3890	21514	5408	3593	17701	6040	6971	8488	5987	8830	9230	6374	23346	6061	3247	5695	3140	7395	1655	15730	4649	4390	3480	14483	3922	3778	4682	4736	837	1197	16502	19795	4367	3235	14935	3192	4894	31381	8741	9051	9192	3445	3279	3557	4643	9939	1065	2912	4597	3215	3384	3140	3890	4990	3148	5510	8460	8162	10221	14750	4711	5380	10286	6088	3884	3274	13949	10502	13931	3260	2519	15085	3635	10385	10627	7345	12688	3186	3649	1788	6349	5130	2993	1946	8383	4326	12716	5938	2563	775	20501	11642	3910	3366	3261	17307	15065	17067	14816	12062	4979	5172	3945	5015	2692	4638	3972	820	6176	3152	2767	3791	9280	20903	9647	3293	5618	15310	4249	5457	14949	3250	2802	3380	6388	4584	3305	8541
2021-01-06	1686	2808	5714	4309	5680	7450	7440	2588	15890	20820	13260	2790	13650	4887	5331	5638	8127	16420	63880	4684	13050	6708	3740	18360	3460	13750	4710	35260	7313	3541	17040	5746	9370	21560	3537	17730	4068	6680	4618	7275	12690	10500	3868	9710	4521	7672	5365	6015	10150	8510	8990	2654	5903	14440	14650	3828	2895	2769	5342	6676	1765	2641	8360	1817	27210	14450	2021	4325	20190	5451	5006	7504	2675	12380	1821	16050	6334	6014	17040	18470	1831	2824	3095	5690	4853	2773	13100	6126	4958	3806	3377	2063	5366	21390	9760	3578	4177	3797	3152	2642	5750	2022	3192	10400	5362	4507	2255	7380	3288	14800	4902	7551	2781	8620	3382	14280	5306	5257	13510	2785	6287	4416	4705	20670	4302	5622	3263	16840	3840	3635	15230	4488	5341	4365	3667	10490	6052	3283	4291	13960	8577	24130	11140	15910	6052	44840	24290	3036	14580	4228	5220	32880	12190	9520	2577	1535	38540	4623	20490	1801	2026	10770	1406	2008	4621	8020	13190	3025	3640	4511	18600	6262	24140	1597	4026	6391	3716	3819	6574	1790	6806	8800	2642	3597	10710	12650	3911	21700	5490	3618	17820	6117	6981	8652	6065	9100	9368	6528	23920	6131	3281	6005	3196	7557	1667	15860	4838	4430	3604	14520	4001	3866	4751	4776	856	1197	16660	20290	4415	3235	15310	3270	5018	31590	8833	9330	9380	3551	3361	3585	4704	10150	1079	2946	4714	3269	3534	3199	4086	5081	3224	5610	8631	8346	10500	15150	4800	5491	10540	6088	3919	3457	14120	10580	14050	3332	2584	15260	3713	10660	10840	7410	12820	3265	3788	1827	6501	5688	3156	1980	8570	4434	13060	6130	2592	786	21000	11870	4027	3415	3261	17310	15330	17480	15160	12280	5089	5375	4014	5168	2754	4738	4053	845	6311	3186	2818	3802	9480	21090	10010	3344	5946	15690	4339	5622	15370	3326	2874	3509	6555	4645	3392	8727
2021-01-07	1708	2912	5742	4375	5714	7587	7578	2619	16080	21450	13350	2828	13960	4966	5375	5720	8245	16820	64940	4738	13200	6749	3787	18470	3480	14180	4830	35460	7520	3574	17310	5854	9540	21900	3601	18180	4146	6851	4645	7391	12800	10580	3958	9930	4608	7797	5547	6176	10380	8606	9230	2710	6004	14670	14940	3840	2972	2840	5395	6783	1822	2789	8660	1850	27410	14630	2056	4385	20710	5515	5073	7709	2744	12600	1847	16180	6503	6109	17360	18780	1904	2863	3111	5758	4884	2792	13200	6234	4994	3933	3485	2115	5518	21880	10010	3662	4206	3833	3199	2679	5857	2055	3204	10520	5415	4624	2340	7541	3373	15200	4936	7703	2827	8794	3436	14640	5448	5337	13810	2812	6346	4535	4831	21120	4380	5696	3300	17380	3885	3703	15650	4609	5394	4414	3811	10750	6173	3352	4365	14060	8755	24310	11400	16280	6121	45210	24480	3149	14910	4278	5268	33440	12360	9710	2656	1552	38810	4667	20850	1819	2073	11030	1443	2035	4676	8145	13510	3114	3724	4553	18700	6320	24770	1615	4038	6421	3774	3881	6620	1812	6930	8823	2685	3655	10840	12830	3966	21880	5532	3641	17940	6191	7081	8763	6135	9260	9466	6676	24480	6198	3315	6189	3251	7716	1679	16000	4957	4471	3684	14600	4080	3950	4810	4859	875	1213	16790	20670	4462	3265	15700	3344	5141	31750	8914	9500	9530	3659	3442	3635	4765	10350	1092	2979	4774	3306	3621	3254	4171	5166	3298	5707	8725	8474	10780	15530	4859	5507	10740	6117	3951	3530	14280	10690	14170	3402	2638	15420	3797	10920	11010	7482	12920	3313	3920	1861	6623	6095	3235	2016	8677	4541	13400	6244	2620	797	21490	11980	4095	3465	3287	17340	15600	17890	15490	12500	5170	5499	4084	5302	2813	4838	4134	853	6416	3219	2865	3873	9670	21260	10260	3392	6108	16180	4427	5720	15850	3429	2917	3606	6704	4697	3466	8912
2021-01-08	1708	3023	5769	4375	5714	7663	7717	2653	16270	21900	13440	2863	14260	5023	5405	5803	8273	17230	66040	4793	13300	6773	3822	18570	3498	14630	4952	35610	7728	3586	17580	5949	9540	22170	3669	18640	4209	7024	4645	7469	12880	10640	4003	10160	4697	7870	5728	6341	10610	8662	9470	2768	6004	14810	15130	3853	3034	2913	5428	6892	1865	2868	8970	1884	27500	14830	2083	4414	21230	5581	5111	7917	2799	12830	1873	16260	6611	6204	17590	19100	1979	2903	3117	5828	4915	2798	13260	6341	5014	3999	3592	2167	5624	22420	10260	3745	4209	3871	3248	2711	5928	2068	3215	10650	5467	4744	2429	7704	3461	15610	4948	7858	2875	8971	3474	15000	5593	5399	14110	2828	6407	4655	4882	21580	4453	5725	3329	17920	3931	3774	15990	4701	5448	4435	3932	11010	6299	3410	4441	14160	8931	24450	11650	16660	6160	45480	24610	3267	15010	4328	5317	34010	12530	9830	2735	1569	38970	4713	21100	1837	2121	11300	1480	2065	4709	8275	13840	3203	3809	4575	18810	6365	25100	1633	4047	6452	3835	3943	6668	1812	7055	8823	2727	3713	10860	13020	3974	22070	5561	3666	18010	6267	7124	8842	6208	9330	9546	6826	25040	6267	3350	6356	3307	7878	1692	16100	5040	4511	3748	14680	4161	4034	4829	4898	893	1213	16890	20970	4508	3265	16080	3420	5265	31880	8995	9630	9650	3767	3523	3656	4827	10550	1105	3011	4818	3351	3696	3279	4228	5214	3374	5802	8791	8510	11060	15920	4890	5507	10930	6133	3982	3611	14450	10750	14290	3432	2686	15590	3844	11190	11100	7565	12980	3352	4053	1885	6730	6528	3276	2037	8771	4647	13750	6325	2650	807	21990	12030	4156	3519	3287	17340	15870	18300	15840	12720	5227	5569	4154	5357	2873	4939	4216	857	6486	3252	2916	3908	9860	21400	10440	3440	6239	16550	4515	5791	16140	3541	2919	3675	6794	4727	3515	9099
2021-01-09	1731	3132	5796	4399	5722	7781	7857	2687	16460	22520	13520	2905	14570	5112	5460	5900	8349	17640	67120	4848	13440	6834	3863	18690	3524	15080	5077	35790	7933	3656	17860	6093	9610	22520	3737	19090	4290	7194	4658	7592	12970	10720	4091	10380	4785	7986	5908	6503	10830	8723	9710	2825	6061	15050	15450	3865	3126	2986	5484	6996	1907	2977	9280	1918	27710	15020	2127	4464	21750	5648	5166	8129	2877	13050	1899	16390	6784	6298	17880	19430	2056	2941	3146	5898	4945	2823	13370	6445	5060	4129	3701	2218	5757	22940	10520	3828	4224	3906	3296	2768	6047	2101	3225	10780	5517	4863	2518	7864	3549	16020	5002	8004	2922	9143	3534	15350	5739	5481	14400	2874	6468	4774	4993	22030	4519	5804	3370	18440	3977	3845	16360	4834	5501	4471	4097	11270	6421	3473	4517	14260	9107	24640	11910	17030	6240	45840	24760	3386	15390	4377	5364	34570	12700	10010	2814	1586	39210	4757	21490	1855	2168	11560	1515	2093	4762	8404	14160	3289	3895	4608	18920	6410	25720	1650	4064	6481	3896	4004	6714	1818	7179	8851	2770	3770	11020	13210	4019	22250	5617	3690	18100	6339	7180	8975	6276	9500	9643	6972	25600	6333	3383	6550	3363	8039	1704	16210	5162	4549	3842	14770	4242	4116	4880	4986	910	1222	17020	21400	4553	3290	16470	3494	5389	32090	9067	9830	9790	3878	3604	3723	4889	10760	1119	3043	4886	3390	3792	3319	4332	5294	3450	5896	8892	8707	11340	16300	5002	5611	11210	6187	4015	3723	14610	10840	14400	3472	2728	15760	3926	11450	11240	7646	13090	3398	4183	1919	6898	6948	3356	2080	8878	4752	14090	6442	2678	818	22480	12150	4220	3573	3296	17380	16140	18700	16180	12930	5317	5693	4225	5462	2931	5043	4297	866	6591	3284	2965	3962	10050	21590	10750	3487	6400	17010	4602	5906	16550	3691	3028	3774	6893	4776	3569	9286
2021-01-10	1758	3245	5822	4462	5779	7902	7999	2722	16650	23240	13610	2937	14880	5209	5496	5991	8483	18050	68220	4904	13580	6891	3904	18790	3546	15550	5204	35910	8140	3702	18140	6213	9720	22840	3807	19560	4379	7366	4678	7712	13100	10810	4203	10600	4875	8116	6090	6668	11060	8810	9950	2883	6141	15230	15740	3876	3209	3059	5532	7101	1970	3070	9610	1953	27930	15220	2157	4560	22270	5716	5235	8347	2943	13280	1926	16510	6990	6392	18150	19760	2135	2980	3177	5970	4975	2853	13460	6548	5136	4241	3812	2269	5896	23470	10780	3912	4265	3941	3345	2809	6137	2128	3236	10900	5568	4986	2609	8025	3640	16440	5026	8151	2971	9317	3584	15710	5889	5557	14700	2917	6529	4895	5092	22490	4586	5919	3407	18970	4022	3916	16810	4960	5555	4534	4276	11530	6544	3527	4594	14360	9285	24840	12170	17410	6301	46220	24950	3511	15740	4426	5412	35130	12870	10190	2895	1604	39500	4801	21900	1873	2216	11820	1550	2123	4812	8535	14490	3376	3984	4651	19020	6476	26360	1668	4078	6511	3957	4066	6760	1834	7305	8890	2812	3828	11190	13390	4085	22430	5671	3714	18220	6411	7236	9073	6345	9650	9755	7119	26160	6399	3416	6739	3420	8201	1717	16350	5282	4588	3904	14890	4324	4200	4912	5084	928	1232	17170	21770	4598	3326	16890	3569	5514	32270	9141	10000	9940	3992	3686	3797	4951	10970	1132	3075	4970	3438	3872	3382	4421	5348	3528	5989	8983	8877	11620	16680	5079	5636	11380	6226	4047	3787	14780	10940	14520	3511	2769	15930	4021	11710	11380	7729	13200	3451	4314	1947	7047	7388	3435	2114	8960	4859	14450	6582	2706	828	22970	12250	4295	3628	3323	17460	16410	19120	16530	13150	5391	5814	4297	5573	2989	5149	4379	872	6670	3317	3014	4039	10250	21760	11020	3534	6587	17540	4690	6003	16890	3769	3100	3867	7028	4822	3620	9476
2021-01-11	1821	3363	5849	4560	5844	8112	8145	2757	16840	23960	13700	2990	15200	5328	5555	6121	8639	18460	69350	4960	13780	6966	3988	18940	3574	16030	5335	36150	8351	3798	18430	6350	9960	23280	3878	20020	4486	7539	4719	7863	13250	10920	4316	10820	4966	8275	6276	6834	11290	8897	10200	2943	6250	15450	16030	3887	3318	3134	5589	7208	2049	3233	9950	1988	28200	15410	2204	4666	22790	5785	5319	8570	3027	13510	1952	16690	7183	6487	18500	20100	2216	3018	3224	6044	5005	2879	13610	6651	5245	4418	3924	2321	6044	24000	11040	3996	4304	3977	3395	2875	6309	2193	3247	11030	5618	5112	2704	8188	3734	16870	5095	8300	3020	9492	3633	16070	6044	5669	15000	2990	6591	5018	5245	22950	4689	6035	3458	19500	4069	3988	17260	5129	5609	4634	4452	11810	6668	3604	4672	14450	9464	25100	12460	17790	6398	46730	25170	3640	16160	4475	5460	35700	13040	10430	2977	1621	39880	4845	22390	1892	2264	12090	1586	2152	4901	8668	14820	3463	4074	4708	19130	6551	27160	1686	4115	6540	4020	4128	6806	1881	7433	8938	2855	3886	11380	13580	4165	22620	5758	3738	18360	6483	7344	9236	6413	9850	9871	7267	26720	6466	3450	6941	3478	8365	1729	16530	5427	4627	4017	15000	4409	4284	4985	5228	946	1238	17350	22310	4643	3368	17340	3647	5641	32500	9215	10230	10110	4110	3768	3900	5014	11180	1146	3107	5052	3494	3956	3447	4539	5420	3607	6083	9113	9044	11900	17070	5192	5720	11560	6278	4101	3899	14950	11060	14630	3574	2821	16110	4133	11980	11570	7812	13320	3519	4446	1994	7222	7850	3547	2159	9124	4967	14800	6735	2734	838	23480	12390	4409	3685	3380	17550	16690	19530	16880	13380	5478	5946	4371	5755	3048	5258	4461	892	6769	3350	3063	4145	10440	21980	11350	3581	6760	18130	4780	6165	17350	3926	3206	4000	7215	4897	3696	9671
2021-01-12	1891	3486	5876	4736	5922	8263	8293	2794	17040	24520	13790	3037	15510	5464	5605	6248	8884	18880	70490	5017	13930	7007	4047	19070	3603	16520	5469	36360	8563	3915	18720	6474	10170	23630	3950	20490	4568	7715	4765	7993	13370	11000	4434	11050	5060	8439	6465	7002	11530	8982	10450	3004	6450	15730	16340	3899	3410	3211	5640	7317	2101	3338	10300	2024	28550	15610	2241	4864	23330	5855	5395	8801	3100	13740	1979	16820	7386	6583	18750	20450	2299	3057	3300	6119	5035	2927	13720	6755	5381	4633	4039	2374	6184	24540	11300	4082	4356	4012	3446	2929	6479	2266	3257	11160	5669	5241	2803	8352	3830	17310	5220	8451	3070	9668	3676	16440	6202	5775	15300	3102	6654	5142	5370	23420	4799	6167	3496	20030	4116	4061	17700	5280	5664	4765	4654	12090	6793	3685	4752	14550	9645	25280	12730	18170	6476	47100	25370	3774	16690	4525	5507	36290	13210	10630	3059	1639	40240	4889	22810	1910	2313	12360	1622	2182	5059	8803	15150	3551	4168	4765	19240	6618	27990	1704	4159	6569	4084	4192	6853	1943	7564	9025	2898	3945	11630	13780	4261	22800	5857	3763	18490	6554	7426	9386	6482	10110	9942	7417	27300	6534	3484	7096	3537	8530	1742	16650	5539	4666	4118	15140	4495	4370	5034	5443	964	1257	17530	22760	4688	3442	17750	3726	5769	32730	9289	10500	10290	4232	3852	4031	5078	11400	1160	3140	5141	3555	4041	3522	4640	5461	3688	6178	9224	9314	12190	17460	5351	5850	11750	6375	4128	3991	15120	11190	14740	3656	2883	16280	4261	12250	11740	7897	13440	3557	4579	2053	7346	8339	3628	2216	9286	5075	15160	6866	2763	849	23980	12480	4508	3742	3460	17680	16970	19950	17230	13610	5562	6070	4446	5933	3107	5370	4544	904	6860	3383	3113	4291	10640	22170	11680	3630	6916	18520	4870	6312	17730	4028	3372	4098	7453	4961	3780	9870

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-06 to 2021-01-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-05	1681	2700	5679	4266	5680	7210	7305	2558	15729	19905	13166	2739	13339	4731	5297	5504	8096	16004	62795	4637	12846	6708	3707	18239	3423	13311	4595	34999	7102	3500	16781	5499	9209	21086	3475	17281	4005	6505	4618	7142	12578	10391	3708	9482	4434	7525	5178	5853	9917	8399	8751	2595	5903	14131	14231	3815	2738	2699	5255	6564	1737	2504	8060	1783	27027	14252	1975	4325	19665	5386	4918	7304	2565	12155	1795	15995	6128	5918	16610	18171	1759	2783	3092	5628	4820	2754	13057	6014	4958	3644	3271	2010	5160	20877	9509	3493	4177	3756	3104	2585	5626	2022	3180	10271	5307	4390	2168	7215	3205	14415	4887	7386	2735	8439	3290	13912	5165	5179	13193	2741	6227	4297	4533	20211	4223	5537	3208	16243	3794	3565	14595	4292	5287	4344	3381	10244	5927	3196	4217	13848	8399	23928	10785	15525	5963	44357	24138	2924	14040	4177	5170	32300	12003	9300	2499	1518	38332	4577	19961	1782	1977	10508	1364	1981	4562	7896	12854	2929	3556	4507	18489	6184	23228	1579	4026	6358	3658	3754	6526	1784	6680	8800	2598	3538	10677	12466	3890	21514	5408	3593	17701	6040	6971	8488	5987	8830	9230	6374	23346	6061	3247	5695	3140	7395	1655	15730	4649	4390	3480	14483	3922	3778	4682	4736	837	1197	16502	19795	4367	3235	14935	3192	4894	31381	8741	9051	9192	3445	3279	3557	4643	9939	1065	2912	4597	3215	3384	3140	3890	4990	3148	5510	8460	8162	10221	14750	4711	5380	10286	6088	3884	3274	13949	10502	13931	3260	2519	15085	3635	10385	10627	7345	12688	3186	3649	1788	6349	5130	2993	1946	8383	4326	12716	5938	2563	775	20501	11642	3910	3366	3261	17307	15065	17067	14816	12062	4979	5172	3945	5015	2692	4638	3972	820	6176	3152	2767	3791	9280	20903	9647	3293	5618	15310	4249	5457	14949	3250	2802	3380	6388	4584	3305	8541
2021-01-06	1743	2803	5769	4398	5782	7367	7491	2633	16240	20500	13260	2801	13670	4871	5346	5617	8320	16460	64010	4706	13030	6757	3771	18380	3451	13810	4745	35240	7352	3617	17270	5635	9560	21460	3587	17730	4111	6692	4670	7272	12700	10480	3814	9740	4532	7666	5388	6019	10160	8482	8990	2661	6130	14420	14540	3865	2829	2773	5317	6852	1796	2623	8410	1817	27410	14540	2015	4532	20340	5557	4986	7542	2644	12380	1825	16150	6331	6009	16970	18710	1821	2835	3168	5796	4864	2798	13160	6134	5114	3828	3361	2075	5315	21490	9760	3599	4238	3807	3197	2661	5774	2078	3219	10410	5383	4501	2238	7391	3292	14870	4995	7606	2808	8642	3345	14300	5362	5288	13560	2842	6340	4394	4661	20680	4337	5688	3266	16730	3853	3709	15100	4440	5361	4477	3612	10540	6056	3273	4323	13960	8588	24150	11100	16000	6073	44800	24410	3059	14570	4253	5219	32940	12280	9520	2594	1551	38670	4649	20460	1801	2028	10790	1397	2045	4696	8038	13190	3012	3673	4562	18610	6258	24010	1597	4078	6400	3761	3804	6575	1835	6810	8883	2639	3595	10920	12650	3983	21730	5521	3635	17840	6156	7076	8635	6087	9040	9318	6542	23960	6147	3315	5895	3194	7546	1693	15880	4763	4442	3561	14610	3997	3891	4757	4967	851	1216	16670	20230	4426	3308	15340	3267	5019	31620	8930	9320	9370	3543	3367	3652	4715	10140	1090	2948	4707	3265	3482	3237	4028	5053	3224	5634	8577	8440	10520	15240	4841	5522	10490	6177	3926	3396	14130	10630	14080	3328	2569	15290	3762	10670	10810	7523	12810	3245	3761	1840	6489	5452	3080	1994	8522	4440	13070	6082	2612	788	21030	11800	4011	3483	3342	17450	15370	17530	15190	12320	5062	5314	4063	5210	2767	4797	4062	832	6283	3184	2840	3906	9500	21110	9930	3378	5822	15770	4349	5611	15370	3363	2916	3477	6585	4650	3379	8749
2021-01-07	1817	2889	5869	4586	5889	7499	7686	2718	16700	21090	13360	2837	13980	4983	5391	5699	8601	16860	65110	4764	13180	6803	3816	18500	3471	14230	4877	35440	7561	3716	17810	5759	9880	21720	3700	18240	4179	6877	4729	7393	12810	10560	3922	9990	4619	7789	5608	6168	10410	8565	9250	2719	6377	14670	14820	3906	2915	2845	5363	7144	1849	2726	8720	1852	27760	14810	2052	4753	20910	5723	5054	7757	2714	12590	1851	16270	6526	6096	17290	19270	1897	2871	3241	5947	4894	2841	13250	6230	5264	3989	3470	2134	5475	22070	10020	3697	4304	3845	3302	2715	5888	2125	3247	10520	5447	4603	2294	7561	3381	15350	5110	7797	2866	8831	3403	14690	5569	5385	13850	2946	6449	4491	4790	21150	4433	5840	3298	17160	3910	3832	15600	4583	5426	4589	3852	10870	6182	3337	4429	14060	8795	24310	11360	16380	6146	45140	24650	3176	15070	4319	5266	33520	12520	9700	2683	1581	38960	4712	20800	1822	2072	11100	1419	2111	4839	8135	13540	3087	3785	4612	18710	6316	24800	1613	4120	6432	3869	3846	6621	1897	6936	8951	2676	3650	11170	12810	4089	21920	5593	3675	17960	6267	7188	8747	6162	9230	9382	6707	24570	6220	3381	6066	3248	7721	1730	15990	4872	4483	3637	14700	4072	3976	4821	5180	867	1241	16800	20600	4474	3390	15670	3324	5154	31810	9100	9560	9530	3645	3459	3756	4779	10310	1108	2982	4787	3307	3585	3328	4134	5111	3278	5725	8674	8660	10810	15660	4992	5639	10670	6257	3959	3509	14300	10750	14200	3399	2613	15490	3880	10980	10970	7734	12920	3283	3873	1873	6584	5705	3177	2043	8646	4560	13400	6200	2637	798	21560	11930	4087	3593	3428	17550	15660	17950	15530	12540	5137	5462	4180	5383	2824	4981	4145	842	6367	3215	2892	4034	9700	21270	10180	3471	5981	16200	4452	5747	15780	3454	3031	3554	6777	4706	3445	8926
2021-01-08	1880	2976	5957	4711	5952	7605	7820	2806	17030	21550	13450	2870	14270	5065	5433	5781	8837	17210	66190	4819	13280	6842	3851	18610	3490	14630	5005	35600	7718	3794	18360	5878	10050	21950	3803	18760	4242	7058	4775	7509	12900	10630	3997	10230	4699	7877	5804	6298	10670	8634	9500	2761	6528	14890	15060	3944	2995	2919	5402	7407	1896	2808	9030	1882	28050	15060	2087	4927	21330	5845	5108	7964	2778	12800	1872	16360	6701	6184	17570	19740	1976	2903	3295	6082	4923	2881	13340	6312	5411	4085	3563	2191	5620	22640	10260	3768	4348	3883	3406	2767	5989	2154	3269	10630	5506	4707	2338	7733	3463	15850	5218	7980	2919	8995	3459	15080	5772	5468	14050	3052	6557	4585	4874	21570	4525	5970	3322	17570	3953	3939	16070	4717	5490	4684	4085	11200	6302	3398	4532	14150	8988	24420	11610	16640	6186	45400	24850	3293	15370	4378	5313	34070	12750	9820	2772	1606	39190	4776	21020	1842	2115	11400	1441	2180	4974	8225	13880	3158	3884	4650	18820	6368	25440	1630	4161	6463	3980	3889	6667	1946	7055	9001	2712	3699	11410	12950	4183	22090	5649	3716	18040	6374	7264	8817	6238	9400	9438	6871	25150	6293	3435	6215	3300	7881	1764	16060	4966	4523	3702	14780	4126	4051	4870	5341	881	1263	16890	20910	4512	3465	15950	3372	5278	32000	9280	9790	9680	3744	3551	3838	4823	10490	1128	3017	4848	3348	3666	3397	4198	5154	3334	5797	8762	8830	11070	15920	5121	5742	10830	6336	3992	3624	14460	10840	14300	3443	2654	15700	3964	11280	11080	7887	13000	3318	3985	1901	6673	5951	3264	2088	8761	4675	13670	6296	2657	808	22050	12030	4159	3691	3492	17620	15950	18300	15850	12720	5191	5586	4300	5489	2878	5170	4215	850	6413	3246	2930	4142	9880	21410	10390	3528	6125	16520	4531	5850	16090	3546	3135	3619	6955	4754	3509	9102
2021-01-09	1943	3065	6046	4882	6039	7735	7998	2897	17540	22130	13540	2906	14590	5166	5481	5881	9081	17620	67330	4876	13430	6896	3896	18740	3512	15090	5146	35790	7948	3910	18920	6020	10320	22250	3921	19290	4325	7248	4829	7633	13000	10720	4102	10500	4787	7993	5944	6464	10940	8711	9760	2813	6735	15160	15370	3990	3089	2993	5452	7706	1946	2907	9370	1919	28400	15340	2126	5144	21840	5995	5169	8185	2856	13020	1896	16500	6910	6272	17870	20240	2057	2938	3373	6243	4958	2926	13430	6405	5571	4229	3673	2252	5778	23220	10520	3870	4399	3920	3518	2835	6119	2205	3295	10760	5575	4813	2400	7906	3553	16360	5337	8181	2979	9191	3519	15480	5994	5555	14350	3169	6673	4685	4989	22030	4614	6127	3360	18040	4006	4045	16560	4870	5554	4788	4354	11550	6425	3462	4641	14250	9189	24580	11870	17010	6257	45740	25090	3419	15850	4445	5359	34640	13000	10000	2871	1633	39460	4840	21430	1862	2159	11710	1463	2250	5113	8327	14240	3240	3996	4697	18920	6419	26220	1646	4206	6494	4093	3938	6716	2001	7168	9071	2753	3754	11670	13110	4284	22280	5735	3757	18140	6486	7362	8955	6314	9590	9501	7031	25790	6366	3502	6391	3355	8060	1800	16160	5078	4562	3791	14870	4197	4138	4927	5552	899	1287	17020	21320	4557	3550	16320	3437	5418	32220	9450	10040	9840	3848	3652	3949	4890	10660	1160	3051	4932	3389	3778	3474	4323	5210	3395	5905	8859	9120	11370	16320	5270	5892	11050	6421	4026	3746	14630	10960	14410	3489	2695	15900	4076	11590	11230	8097	13100	3359	4102	1931	6802	6256	3364	2141	8890	4803	14010	6424	2682	816	22590	12150	4239	3807	3563	17720	16250	18740	16200	12980	5272	5737	4421	5622	2938	5366	4303	860	6506	3277	2997	4256	10070	21600	10660	3599	6293	16960	4626	5984	16480	3674	3256	3698	7145	4811	3574	9288
2021-01-10	2013	3158	6145	5052	6124	7868	8200	2991	17970	22830	13640	2942	14890	5290	5521	5966	9353	18030	68450	4935	13560	6944	3932	18850	3533	15560	5290	35940	8150	4004	19500	6147	10550	22510	4040	19840	4406	7447	4882	7759	13120	10800	4225	10740	4869	8120	6153	6644	11200	8786	10020	2858	6942	15400	15660	4024	3183	3069	5497	8022	1998	2994	9720	1956	28760	15610	2163	5360	22370	6149	5236	8411	2928	13240	1918	16600	7126	6360	18170	20770	2141	2971	3448	6425	4984	2971	13520	6502	5740	4380	3789	2314	5936	23890	10760	3960	4457	3958	3635	2890	6227	2240	3322	10890	5638	4921	2454	8081	3648	16880	5453	8352	3043	9371	3578	15890	6247	5652	14690	3293	6789	4786	5112	22470	4701	6301	3390	18520	4055	4160	17110	5027	5619	4894	4651	11910	6550	3523	4754	14340	9373	24740	12130	17420	6317	46070	25320	3549	16390	4510	5407	35230	13250	10180	2975	1662	39760	4904	21830	1883	2204	12000	1487	2322	5250	8414	14570	3313	4114	4744	19020	6483	27030	1663	4246	6526	4209	3990	6761	2059	7289	9141	2792	3810	11940	13270	4396	22470	5818	3798	18240	6596	7429	9056	6390	9790	9571	7199	26360	6440	3569	6591	3410	8255	1836	16280	5191	4603	3861	14960	4278	4231	4983	5770	913	1311	17150	21700	4596	3635	16660	3493	5540	32440	9630	10300	10000	3955	3754	4075	4947	10840	1179	3086	5030	3434	3880	3565	4447	5253	3466	5994	8958	9410	11630	16710	5433	6053	11190	6505	4057	3866	14800	11070	14510	3539	2730	16110	4202	11920	11380	8299	13210	3400	4228	1962	6920	6547	3466	2192	9007	4922	14330	6566	2707	826	23070	12260	4319	3948	3640	17840	16530	19180	16560	13200	5332	5887	4546	5764	3001	5571	4386	870	6558	3308	3061	4378	10290	21760	10930	3684	6473	17300	4744	6135	16760	3736	3386	3771	7329	4870	3639	9474
2021-01-11	2094	3257	6249	5268	6226	8035	8432	3089	18430	23550	13740	2977	15220	5433	5571	6077	9636	18440	69580	4996	13720	7001	3988	18970	3558	16060	5471	36110	8401	4141	20090	6288	10870	22820	4160	20400	4485	7661	4943	7890	13220	10890	4348	11000	4951	8264	6362	6828	11480	8870	10290	2907	7168	15640	15980	4063	3294	3148	5545	8343	2059	3102	10090	1996	29130	15870	2204	5603	22940	6325	5323	8658	3007	13470	1943	16730	7338	6451	18510	21310	2227	3007	3532	6605	5011	3017	13630	6602	5939	4555	3925	2376	6105	24500	11020	4050	4516	3996	3752	2959	6372	2296	3351	11020	5707	5033	2514	8260	3752	17410	5576	8547	3114	9572	3637	16310	6497	5749	15030	3415	6910	4901	5255	22910	4810	6475	3422	18990	4112	4293	17670	5198	5685	5013	4978	12280	6684	3587	4866	14440	9584	24930	12420	17850	6385	46490	25590	3709	16910	4576	5455	35830	13510	10410	3078	1688	40080	4970	22260	1904	2250	12320	1512	2396	5411	8520	14930	3389	4236	4797	19120	6545	27930	1680	4298	6558	4328	4038	6812	2127	7423	9214	2835	3867	12210	13410	4511	22650	5912	3839	18360	6717	7510	9195	6468	10000	9647	7375	27000	6514	3631	6803	3463	8446	1876	16400	5325	4645	3955	15050	4348	4327	5040	6027	927	1335	17290	22160	4648	3723	16980	3553	5692	32660	9810	10570	10160	4067	3860	4205	5009	11010	1208	3121	5126	3484	4014	3650	4611	5305	3541	6087	9064	9720	11910	17180	5599	6226	11380	6592	4100	3995	14970	11170	14620	3597	2767	16320	4338	12270	11530	8495	13330	3445	4348	1997	7035	6913	3588	2245	9157	5046	14730	6710	2736	838	23580	12390	4414	4089	3729	17970	16840	19640	16910	13420	5399	6047	4678	5938	3060	5784	4488	884	6610	3340	3146	4511	10480	21960	11210	3765	6642	17780	4863	6316	17080	3843	3525	3850	7540	4935	3708	9673
2021-01-12	2185	3350	6362	5608	6354	8216	8721	3191	19020	24340	13840	3016	15600	5608	5620	6203	9983	18920	70790	5051	13870	7047	4035	19100	3583	16570	5705	36310	8709	4306	20710	6446	11260	23110	4297	20980	4559	7890	5004	8021	13320	10990	4497	11280	5048	8414	6622	7054	11760	8958	10560	2976	7525	15940	16330	4110	3407	3228	5598	8776	2111	3196	10550	2045	29580	16170	2244	5970	23630	6534	5406	8927	3090	13700	1972	16870	7577	6542	18850	21940	2318	3047	3654	6882	5046	3071	13720	6709	6140	4832	4090	2446	6295	25200	11330	4178	4585	4035	3881	3046	6533	2376	3379	11170	5777	5148	2579	8442	3861	17970	5718	8749	3185	9793	3696	16750	6770	5876	15410	3552	7032	5031	5418	23440	4937	6682	3452	19510	4176	4445	18280	5384	5751	5165	5330	12660	6822	3657	4990	14540	9805	25100	12700	18410	6459	46890	25860	3899	17720	4646	5503	36490	13780	10670	3189	1720	40390	5036	22820	1925	2297	12670	1548	2474	5614	8656	15330	3466	4355	4852	19230	6607	28980	1697	4348	6594	4452	4102	6864	2226	7558	9305	2878	3930	12500	13590	4638	22850	6040	3881	18470	6835	7615	9382	6547	10250	9709	7568	27660	6589	3701	7067	3523	8655	1913	16520	5457	4686	4075	15180	4440	4437	5102	6377	944	1361	17440	22590	4696	3824	17290	3616	5869	32890	10000	10870	10350	4191	3988	4407	5074	11200	1233	3157	5247	3538	4168	3760	4816	5354	3631	6195	9171	10170	12250	17760	5805	6483	11580	6686	4132	4126	15140	11310	14720	3673	2818	16530	4517	12650	11720	8741	13440	3487	4478	2041	7127	7246	3712	2305	9319	5184	15170	6882	2759	849	24150	12520	4536	4266	3858	18140	17150	20190	17310	13630	5497	6228	4823	6216	3124	6008	4598	897	6688	3372	3228	4681	10710	22150	11500	3878	6843	18140	5012	6510	17490	3930	3684	3935	7775	4997	3780	9881

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-05