COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-05

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-05

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd) -- -- -- -- --12-07 -- -- --12-2212-21 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- --12-25 --10-1211-15 -- --10-29 -- -- --12-22 -- -- --12-21 --12-22 -- --10-2511-0312-25 -- --12-08 --12-2212-2512-2512-22 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --12-25 -- -- -- --10-14 --12-06 -- -- -- -- -- --11-02 --11-01 -- -- --12-21 --12-2212-2512-22 -- --09-27 --12-2112-25 --12-22 -- -- -- --12-22 -- -- -- -- --12-2212-2512-21 -- -- -- -- --12-13 --12-22 --12-24 -- -- -- --12-25 -- -- --12-22 --12-22 -- --11-02 --10-27 --12-21 --09-27 -- -- -- --11-29 -- -- -- -- --09-22 --12-2111-03 --12-2512-21 -- -- --12-22 -- -- --09-2611-04 --12-10 --10-25 -- --11-04 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- --10-12 --12-2111-03 --12-22 --12-22 --10-1812-1310-1112-1310-17 -- -- -- -- -- --10-19 --11-01 -- -- --12-2509-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0912-24 --12-25 -- -- -- -- --12-22 -- -- -- -- --10-31 -- -- --11-01 -- -- -- -- --12-07 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --12-2112-2112-21 -- --12-22 --12-22 -- --10-29 -- --12-22 -- --12-25 -- -- -- --12-2512-13 --12-0912-21 --12-2212-21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Peak daily increment 172 612 103 77 64 235 49 441 161 535 199 159 141 128 147 189 278 106 273 80 249 115 109 226 134 159 675 276 75 84 145 33 183 212 64 412 133 469 168 538 259 140 285 360 415 541 117 609 416 29 307 54 384 391 85 23 159 108 121 609 257 101 648 94 191 202 196 140 64 94 199 237 84 141 438 82 113 137 314 57 194 184 177 133 363 138 580 89 261 394 158 90 18 41 74 227 234
Days since peak 29 14 15 71 11 85 51 68 14 15 14 72 63 11 28 14 11 11 14 11 83 30 64 65 15 14 11 14 100 15 11 14 14 14 11 15 23 14 12 11 14 14 64 70 15 100 37 105 15 63 11 15 14 101 62 26 72 62 63 97 72 85 15 63 14 14 79 23 86 23 80 78 65 11 98 57 12 11 14 66 65 29 79 15 15 15 14 14 68 14 11 11 23 27 15 14 15
Last total 1681 2700 5679 4266 5680 7210 7305 2558 15729 19905 13166 2739 13339 4731 5297 5504 8096 16004 62795 4637 12846 6708 3707 18239 3423 13311 4595 34999 7102 3500 16781 5499 9209 21086 3475 17281 4005 6505 4618 7142 12578 10391 3708 9482 4434 7525 5178 5853 9917 8399 8751 2595 5903 14131 14231 3815 2738 2699 5255 6564 1737 2504 8060 1783 27027 14252 1975 4325 19665 5386 4918 7304 2565 12155 1795 15995 6128 5918 16610 18171 1759 2783 3092 5628 4820 2754 13057 6014 4958 3644 3271 2010 5160 20877 9509 3493 4177 3756 3104 2585 5626 2022 3180 10271 5307 4390 2168 7215 3205 14415 4887 7386 2735 8439 3290 13912 5165 5179 13193 2741 6227 4297 4533 20211 4223 5537 3208 16243 3794 3565 14595 4292 5287 4344 3381 10244 5927 3196 4217 13848 8399 23928 10785 15525 5963 44357 24138 2924 14040 4177 5170 32300 12003 9300 2499 1518 38332 4577 19961 1782 1977 10508 1364 1981 4562 7896 12854 2929 3556 4507 18489 6184 23228 1579 4026 6358 3658 3754 6526 1784 6680 8800 2598 3538 10677 12466 3890 21514 5408 3593 17701 6040 6971 8488 5987 8830 9230 6374 23346 6061 3247 5695 3140 7395 1655 15730 4649 4390 3480 14483 3922 3778 4682 4736 837 1197 16502 19795 4367 3235 14935 3192 4894 31381 8741 9051 9192 3445 3279 3557 4643 9939 1065 2912 4597 3215 3384 3140 3890 4990 3148 5510 8460 8162 10221 14750 4711 5380 10286 6088 3884 3274 13949 10502 13931 3260 2519 15085 3635 10385 10627 7345 12688 3186 3649 1788 6349 5130 2993 1946 8383 4326 12716 5938 2563 775 20501 11642 3910 3366 3261 17307 15065 17067 14816 12062 4979 5172 3945 5015 2692 4638 3972 820 6176 3152 2767 3791 9280 20903 9647 3293 5618 15310 4249 5457 14949 3250 2802 3380 6388 4584 3305 8541
Last daily increment 46 86 75 118 73 105 126 60 400 485 81 62 270 127 53 116 169 372 1061 52 143 46 59 138 28 450 92 213 156 90 402 72 227 365 95 295 81 134 45 121 137 85 84 174 81 149 184 119 175 79 182 70 168 249 266 48 67 53 58 176 53 112 306 37 294 244 31 136 408 92 69 180 54 215 27 134 163 72 307 424 30 60 58 117 43 41 100 71 120 165 84 64 116 482 150 54 42 63 77 42 146 66 30 120 72 112 65 164 72 331 99 199 54 155 36 312 137 114 313 85 90 80 75 314 92 105 36 403 50 100 360 101 65 112 140 228 105 86 93 110 123 204 307 305 91 361 259 114 332 62 40 718 232 167 50 27 398 61 348 10 54 155 51 52 100 104 252 82 98 55 128 69 547 24 38 40 77 46 36 38 139 96 28 44 209 146 62 180 80 35 140 77 94 136 121 197 86 148 437 73 51 117 54 92 25 139 81 52 67 147 62 103 59 161 10 15 190 413 53 64 428 83 85 221 189 240 153 96 71 87 48 209 22 31 64 61 61 52 64 51 79 104 105 209 186 342 120 79 202 100 24 66 173 116 140 67 58 174 91 184 133 148 107 37 90 66 115 150 39 47 105 86 267 88 45 14 339 135 78 70 59 134 267 274 279 218 58 89 103 139 63 140 59 8 90 35 44 101 184 173 263 69 125 418 89 100 329 84 91 83 173 59 72 195
Last week 344 515 546 858 599 798 964 441 2654 3004 553 326 1804 637 296 565 1274 2418 6729 405 896 345 327 800 170 2489 673 1225 1265 572 2762 675 1734 1817 602 2513 532 975 337 723 700 534 525 1357 496 806 1022 968 1319 521 1382 312 1203 1431 1654 311 478 337 334 1429 320 565 1619 201 2099 1657 239 1018 3271 778 399 1019 400 1291 150 843 1053 572 1875 2822 339 279 437 840 223 264 657 592 912 818 511 346 752 3307 1345 522 376 280 505 348 720 332 189 710 481 565 313 988 479 2430 665 1305 322 1080 303 2129 980 661 1859 511 592 614 689 2620 563 790 236 2422 332 631 2449 747 428 726 1134 1530 759 399 576 647 1036 1111 1572 2284 510 2237 1594 598 2382 393 299 3907 1547 1111 470 185 2024 426 2287 113 260 1467 174 360 700 647 1889 458 614 364 705 389 3888 102 288 219 593 275 283 304 665 473 219 331 1511 894 565 1240 481 262 739 665 680 799 523 1021 434 914 3462 483 427 904 322 871 230 767 657 306 480 701 424 496 374 1032 85 134 891 2550 330 471 2192 372 707 1377 1181 1329 956 525 453 605 397 1113 154 195 461 292 498 421 548 372 370 583 601 1317 1530 2421 760 752 1108 592 224 556 1030 726 889 359 261 1195 603 1608 972 1114 663 260 629 239 756 1392 445 273 809 584 1900 701 224 66 2930 859 468 596 466 797 1863 2466 1947 1349 465 682 647 881 373 855 475 59 502 188 364 700 1134 1204 1480 426 790 2396 587 753 2206 588 595 494 978 363 390 1097
Previous peak date --10-2810-26 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-1310-05 -- -- --10-19 -- -- -- --10-1910-1110-25 -- --10-28 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1810-27 -- -- -- --10-1109-29 -- -- -- --10-25 --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2704-22 --10-19 -- --10-12 -- -- --09-16 --10-04 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-19 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- --10-1110-2810-13 -- -- -- -- -- --09-2810-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0504-1406-15 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2510-28 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- --10-12 -- -- --10-1810-13 --10-25 --10-04 -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-27 -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-18 --10-19 -- -- -- -- --10-04 --10-2410-18 --10-21 -- -- --10-12 -- -- --10-29 -- -- --10-12 --10-05
Previous peak daily increment 27 77 63 191 28 79 168 98 58 139 56 70 333 58 74 53 44 132 35 40 53 65 34 305 180 56 32 58 41 133 76 79 36 56 73 45 65 152 99 75 80 555 66 79 53 74 74 42 70 192 73 143 24 73 83 121 192 135 35 138 27 47 144 140 60 23 98 22 26 320 138 41 64 141
Low between peaks 50 28 27 32 6 11 20 7 21 11 2 5 77

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-06 to 2021-01-12

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-01-05 1681 2700 5679 4266 5680 7210 7305 2558 15729 19905 13166 2739 13339 4731 5297 5504 8096 16004 62795 4637 12846 6708 3707 18239 3423 13311 4595 34999 7102 3500 16781 5499 9209 21086 3475 17281 4005 6505 4618 7142 12578 10391 3708 9482 4434 7525 5178 5853 9917 8399 8751 2595 5903 14131 14231 3815 2738 2699 5255 6564 1737 2504 8060 1783 27027 14252 1975 4325 19665 5386 4918 7304 2565 12155 1795 15995 6128 5918 16610 18171 1759 2783 3092 5628 4820 2754 13057 6014 4958 3644 3271 2010 5160 20877 9509 3493 4177 3756 3104 2585 5626 2022 3180 10271 5307 4390 2168 7215 3205 14415 4887 7386 2735 8439 3290 13912 5165 5179 13193 2741 6227 4297 4533 20211 4223 5537 3208 16243 3794 3565 14595 4292 5287 4344 3381 10244 5927 3196 4217 13848 8399 23928 10785 15525 5963 44357 24138 2924 14040 4177 5170 32300 12003 9300 2499 1518 38332 4577 19961 1782 1977 10508 1364 1981 4562 7896 12854 2929 3556 4507 18489 6184 23228 1579 4026 6358 3658 3754 6526 1784 6680 8800 2598 3538 10677 12466 3890 21514 5408 3593 17701 6040 6971 8488 5987 8830 9230 6374 23346 6061 3247 5695 3140 7395 1655 15730 4649 4390 3480 14483 3922 3778 4682 4736 837 1197 16502 19795 4367 3235 14935 3192 4894 31381 8741 9051 9192 3445 3279 3557 4643 9939 1065 2912 4597 3215 3384 3140 3890 4990 3148 5510 8460 8162 10221 14750 4711 5380 10286 6088 3884 3274 13949 10502 13931 3260 2519 15085 3635 10385 10627 7345 12688 3186 3649 1788 6349 5130 2993 1946 8383 4326 12716 5938 2563 775 20501 11642 3910 3366 3261 17307 15065 17067 14816 12062 4979 5172 3945 5015 2692 4638 3972 820 6176 3152 2767 3791 9280 20903 9647 3293 5618 15310 4249 5457 14949 3250 2802 3380 6388 4584 3305 8541
2021-01-06 1686 2808 5714 4309 5680 7450 7440 2588 15890 20820 13260 2790 13650 4887 5331 5638 8127 16420 63880 4684 13050 6708 3740 18360 3460 13750 4710 35260 7313 3541 17040 5746 9370 21560 3537 17730 4068 6680 4618 7275 12690 10500 3868 9710 4521 7672 5365 6015 10150 8510 8990 2654 5903 14440 14650 3828 2895 2769 5342 6676 1765 2641 8360 1817 27210 14450 2021 4325 20190 5451 5006 7504 2675 12380 1821 16050 6334 6014 17040 18470 1831 2824 3095 5690 4853 2773 13100 6126 4958 3806 3377 2063 5366 21390 9760 3578 4177 3797 3152 2642 5750 2022 3192 10400 5362 4507 2255 7380 3288 14800 4902 7551 2781 8620 3382 14280 5306 5257 13510 2785 6287 4416 4705 20670 4302 5622 3263 16840 3840 3635 15230 4488 5341 4365 3667 10490 6052 3283 4291 13960 8577 24130 11140 15910 6052 44840 24290 3036 14580 4228 5220 32880 12190 9520 2577 1535 38540 4623 20490 1801 2026 10770 1406 2008 4621 8020 13190 3025 3640 4511 18600 6262 24140 1597 4026 6391 3716 3819 6574 1790 6806 8800 2642 3597 10710 12650 3911 21700 5490 3618 17820 6117 6981 8652 6065 9100 9368 6528 23920 6131 3281 6005 3196 7557 1667 15860 4838 4430 3604 14520 4001 3866 4751 4776 856 1197 16660 20290 4415 3235 15310 3270 5018 31590 8833 9330 9380 3551 3361 3585 4704 10150 1079 2946 4714 3269 3534 3199 4086 5081 3224 5610 8631 8346 10500 15150 4800 5491 10540 6088 3919 3457 14120 10580 14050 3332 2584 15260 3713 10660 10840 7410 12820 3265 3788 1827 6501 5688 3156 1980 8570 4434 13060 6130 2592 786 21000 11870 4027 3415 3261 17310 15330 17480 15160 12280 5089 5375 4014 5168 2754 4738 4053 845 6311 3186 2818 3802 9480 21090 10010 3344 5946 15690 4339 5622 15370 3326 2874 3509 6555 4645 3392 8727
2021-01-07 1708 2912 5742 4375 5714 7587 7578 2619 16080 21450 13350 2828 13960 4966 5375 5720 8245 16820 64940 4738 13200 6749 3787 18470 3480 14180 4830 35460 7520 3574 17310 5854 9540 21900 3601 18180 4146 6851 4645 7391 12800 10580 3958 9930 4608 7797 5547 6176 10380 8606 9230 2710 6004 14670 14940 3840 2972 2840 5395 6783 1822 2789 8660 1850 27410 14630 2056 4385 20710 5515 5073 7709 2744 12600 1847 16180 6503 6109 17360 18780 1904 2863 3111 5758 4884 2792 13200 6234 4994 3933 3485 2115 5518 21880 10010 3662 4206 3833 3199 2679 5857 2055 3204 10520 5415 4624 2340 7541 3373 15200 4936 7703 2827 8794 3436 14640 5448 5337 13810 2812 6346 4535 4831 21120 4380 5696 3300 17380 3885 3703 15650 4609 5394 4414 3811 10750 6173 3352 4365 14060 8755 24310 11400 16280 6121 45210 24480 3149 14910 4278 5268 33440 12360 9710 2656 1552 38810 4667 20850 1819 2073 11030 1443 2035 4676 8145 13510 3114 3724 4553 18700 6320 24770 1615 4038 6421 3774 3881 6620 1812 6930 8823 2685 3655 10840 12830 3966 21880 5532 3641 17940 6191 7081 8763 6135 9260 9466 6676 24480 6198 3315 6189 3251 7716 1679 16000 4957 4471 3684 14600 4080 3950 4810 4859 875 1213 16790 20670 4462 3265 15700 3344 5141 31750 8914 9500 9530 3659 3442 3635 4765 10350 1092 2979 4774 3306 3621 3254 4171 5166 3298 5707 8725 8474 10780 15530 4859 5507 10740 6117 3951 3530 14280 10690 14170 3402 2638 15420 3797 10920 11010 7482 12920 3313 3920 1861 6623 6095 3235 2016 8677 4541 13400 6244 2620 797 21490 11980 4095 3465 3287 17340 15600 17890 15490 12500 5170 5499 4084 5302 2813 4838 4134 853 6416 3219 2865 3873 9670 21260 10260 3392 6108 16180 4427 5720 15850 3429 2917 3606 6704 4697 3466 8912
2021-01-08 1708 3023 5769 4375 5714 7663 7717 2653 16270 21900 13440 2863 14260 5023 5405 5803 8273 17230 66040 4793 13300 6773 3822 18570 3498 14630 4952 35610 7728 3586 17580 5949 9540 22170 3669 18640 4209 7024 4645 7469 12880 10640 4003 10160 4697 7870 5728 6341 10610 8662 9470 2768 6004 14810 15130 3853 3034 2913 5428 6892 1865 2868 8970 1884 27500 14830 2083 4414 21230 5581 5111 7917 2799 12830 1873 16260 6611 6204 17590 19100 1979 2903 3117 5828 4915 2798 13260 6341 5014 3999 3592 2167 5624 22420 10260 3745 4209 3871 3248 2711 5928 2068 3215 10650 5467 4744 2429 7704 3461 15610 4948 7858 2875 8971 3474 15000 5593 5399 14110 2828 6407 4655 4882 21580 4453 5725 3329 17920 3931 3774 15990 4701 5448 4435 3932 11010 6299 3410 4441 14160 8931 24450 11650 16660 6160 45480 24610 3267 15010 4328 5317 34010 12530 9830 2735 1569 38970 4713 21100 1837 2121 11300 1480 2065 4709 8275 13840 3203 3809 4575 18810 6365 25100 1633 4047 6452 3835 3943 6668 1812 7055 8823 2727 3713 10860 13020 3974 22070 5561 3666 18010 6267 7124 8842 6208 9330 9546 6826 25040 6267 3350 6356 3307 7878 1692 16100 5040 4511 3748 14680 4161 4034 4829 4898 893 1213 16890 20970 4508 3265 16080 3420 5265 31880 8995 9630 9650 3767 3523 3656 4827 10550 1105 3011 4818 3351 3696 3279 4228 5214 3374 5802 8791 8510 11060 15920 4890 5507 10930 6133 3982 3611 14450 10750 14290 3432 2686 15590 3844 11190 11100 7565 12980 3352 4053 1885 6730 6528 3276 2037 8771 4647 13750 6325 2650 807 21990 12030 4156 3519 3287 17340 15870 18300 15840 12720 5227 5569 4154 5357 2873 4939 4216 857 6486 3252 2916 3908 9860 21400 10440 3440 6239 16550 4515 5791 16140 3541 2919 3675 6794 4727 3515 9099
2021-01-09 1731 3132 5796 4399 5722 7781 7857 2687 16460 22520 13520 2905 14570 5112 5460 5900 8349 17640 67120 4848 13440 6834 3863 18690 3524 15080 5077 35790 7933 3656 17860 6093 9610 22520 3737 19090 4290 7194 4658 7592 12970 10720 4091 10380 4785 7986 5908 6503 10830 8723 9710 2825 6061 15050 15450 3865 3126 2986 5484 6996 1907 2977 9280 1918 27710 15020 2127 4464 21750 5648 5166 8129 2877 13050 1899 16390 6784 6298 17880 19430 2056 2941 3146 5898 4945 2823 13370 6445 5060 4129 3701 2218 5757 22940 10520 3828 4224 3906 3296 2768 6047 2101 3225 10780 5517 4863 2518 7864 3549 16020 5002 8004 2922 9143 3534 15350 5739 5481 14400 2874 6468 4774 4993 22030 4519 5804 3370 18440 3977 3845 16360 4834 5501 4471 4097 11270 6421 3473 4517 14260 9107 24640 11910 17030 6240 45840 24760 3386 15390 4377 5364 34570 12700 10010 2814 1586 39210 4757 21490 1855 2168 11560 1515 2093 4762 8404 14160 3289 3895 4608 18920 6410 25720 1650 4064 6481 3896 4004 6714 1818 7179 8851 2770 3770 11020 13210 4019 22250 5617 3690 18100 6339 7180 8975 6276 9500 9643 6972 25600 6333 3383 6550 3363 8039 1704 16210 5162 4549 3842 14770 4242 4116 4880 4986 910 1222 17020 21400 4553 3290 16470 3494 5389 32090 9067 9830 9790 3878 3604 3723 4889 10760 1119 3043 4886 3390 3792 3319 4332 5294 3450 5896 8892 8707 11340 16300 5002 5611 11210 6187 4015 3723 14610 10840 14400 3472 2728 15760 3926 11450 11240 7646 13090 3398 4183 1919 6898 6948 3356 2080 8878 4752 14090 6442 2678 818 22480 12150 4220 3573 3296 17380 16140 18700 16180 12930 5317 5693 4225 5462 2931 5043 4297 866 6591 3284 2965 3962 10050 21590 10750 3487 6400 17010 4602 5906 16550 3691 3028 3774 6893 4776 3569 9286
2021-01-10 1758 3245 5822 4462 5779 7902 7999 2722 16650 23240 13610 2937 14880 5209 5496 5991 8483 18050 68220 4904 13580 6891 3904 18790 3546 15550 5204 35910 8140 3702 18140 6213 9720 22840 3807 19560 4379 7366 4678 7712 13100 10810 4203 10600 4875 8116 6090 6668 11060 8810 9950 2883 6141 15230 15740 3876 3209 3059 5532 7101 1970 3070 9610 1953 27930 15220 2157 4560 22270 5716 5235 8347 2943 13280 1926 16510 6990 6392 18150 19760 2135 2980 3177 5970 4975 2853 13460 6548 5136 4241 3812 2269 5896 23470 10780 3912 4265 3941 3345 2809 6137 2128 3236 10900 5568 4986 2609 8025 3640 16440 5026 8151 2971 9317 3584 15710 5889 5557 14700 2917 6529 4895 5092 22490 4586 5919 3407 18970 4022 3916 16810 4960 5555 4534 4276 11530 6544 3527 4594 14360 9285 24840 12170 17410 6301 46220 24950 3511 15740 4426 5412 35130 12870 10190 2895 1604 39500 4801 21900 1873 2216 11820 1550 2123 4812 8535 14490 3376 3984 4651 19020 6476 26360 1668 4078 6511 3957 4066 6760 1834 7305 8890 2812 3828 11190 13390 4085 22430 5671 3714 18220 6411 7236 9073 6345 9650 9755 7119 26160 6399 3416 6739 3420 8201 1717 16350 5282 4588 3904 14890 4324 4200 4912 5084 928 1232 17170 21770 4598 3326 16890 3569 5514 32270 9141 10000 9940 3992 3686 3797 4951 10970 1132 3075 4970 3438 3872 3382 4421 5348 3528 5989 8983 8877 11620 16680 5079 5636 11380 6226 4047 3787 14780 10940 14520 3511 2769 15930 4021 11710 11380 7729 13200 3451 4314 1947 7047 7388 3435 2114 8960 4859 14450 6582 2706 828 22970 12250 4295 3628 3323 17460 16410 19120 16530 13150 5391 5814 4297 5573 2989 5149 4379 872 6670 3317 3014 4039 10250 21760 11020 3534 6587 17540 4690 6003 16890 3769 3100 3867 7028 4822 3620 9476
2021-01-11 1821 3363 5849 4560 5844 8112 8145 2757 16840 23960 13700 2990 15200 5328 5555 6121 8639 18460 69350 4960 13780 6966 3988 18940 3574 16030 5335 36150 8351 3798 18430 6350 9960 23280 3878 20020 4486 7539 4719 7863 13250 10920 4316 10820 4966 8275 6276 6834 11290 8897 10200 2943 6250 15450 16030 3887 3318 3134 5589 7208 2049 3233 9950 1988 28200 15410 2204 4666 22790 5785 5319 8570 3027 13510 1952 16690 7183 6487 18500 20100 2216 3018 3224 6044 5005 2879 13610 6651 5245 4418 3924 2321 6044 24000 11040 3996 4304 3977 3395 2875 6309 2193 3247 11030 5618 5112 2704 8188 3734 16870 5095 8300 3020 9492 3633 16070 6044 5669 15000 2990 6591 5018 5245 22950 4689 6035 3458 19500 4069 3988 17260 5129 5609 4634 4452 11810 6668 3604 4672 14450 9464 25100 12460 17790 6398 46730 25170 3640 16160 4475 5460 35700 13040 10430 2977 1621 39880 4845 22390 1892 2264 12090 1586 2152 4901 8668 14820 3463 4074 4708 19130 6551 27160 1686 4115 6540 4020 4128 6806 1881 7433 8938 2855 3886 11380 13580 4165 22620 5758 3738 18360 6483 7344 9236 6413 9850 9871 7267 26720 6466 3450 6941 3478 8365 1729 16530 5427 4627 4017 15000 4409 4284 4985 5228 946 1238 17350 22310 4643 3368 17340 3647 5641 32500 9215 10230 10110 4110 3768 3900 5014 11180 1146 3107 5052 3494 3956 3447 4539 5420 3607 6083 9113 9044 11900 17070 5192 5720 11560 6278 4101 3899 14950 11060 14630 3574 2821 16110 4133 11980 11570 7812 13320 3519 4446 1994 7222 7850 3547 2159 9124 4967 14800 6735 2734 838 23480 12390 4409 3685 3380 17550 16690 19530 16880 13380 5478 5946 4371 5755 3048 5258 4461 892 6769 3350 3063 4145 10440 21980 11350 3581 6760 18130 4780 6165 17350 3926 3206 4000 7215 4897 3696 9671
2021-01-12 1891 3486 5876 4736 5922 8263 8293 2794 17040 24520 13790 3037 15510 5464 5605 6248 8884 18880 70490 5017 13930 7007 4047 19070 3603 16520 5469 36360 8563 3915 18720 6474 10170 23630 3950 20490 4568 7715 4765 7993 13370 11000 4434 11050 5060 8439 6465 7002 11530 8982 10450 3004 6450 15730 16340 3899 3410 3211 5640 7317 2101 3338 10300 2024 28550 15610 2241 4864 23330 5855 5395 8801 3100 13740 1979 16820 7386 6583 18750 20450 2299 3057 3300 6119 5035 2927 13720 6755 5381 4633 4039 2374 6184 24540 11300 4082 4356 4012 3446 2929 6479 2266 3257 11160 5669 5241 2803 8352 3830 17310 5220 8451 3070 9668 3676 16440 6202 5775 15300 3102 6654 5142 5370 23420 4799 6167 3496 20030 4116 4061 17700 5280 5664 4765 4654 12090 6793 3685 4752 14550 9645 25280 12730 18170 6476 47100 25370 3774 16690 4525 5507 36290 13210 10630 3059 1639 40240 4889 22810 1910 2313 12360 1622 2182 5059 8803 15150 3551 4168 4765 19240 6618 27990 1704 4159 6569 4084 4192 6853 1943 7564 9025 2898 3945 11630 13780 4261 22800 5857 3763 18490 6554 7426 9386 6482 10110 9942 7417 27300 6534 3484 7096 3537 8530 1742 16650 5539 4666 4118 15140 4495 4370 5034 5443 964 1257 17530 22760 4688 3442 17750 3726 5769 32730 9289 10500 10290 4232 3852 4031 5078 11400 1160 3140 5141 3555 4041 3522 4640 5461 3688 6178 9224 9314 12190 17460 5351 5850 11750 6375 4128 3991 15120 11190 14740 3656 2883 16280 4261 12250 11740 7897 13440 3557 4579 2053 7346 8339 3628 2216 9286 5075 15160 6866 2763 849 23980 12480 4508 3742 3460 17680 16970 19950 17230 13610 5562 6070 4446 5933 3107 5370 4544 904 6860 3383 3113 4291 10640 22170 11680 3630 6916 18520 4870 6312 17730 4028 3372 4098 7453 4961 3780 9870

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-06 to 2021-01-12

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-01-05 1681 2700 5679 4266 5680 7210 7305 2558 15729 19905 13166 2739 13339 4731 5297 5504 8096 16004 62795 4637 12846 6708 3707 18239 3423 13311 4595 34999 7102 3500 16781 5499 9209 21086 3475 17281 4005 6505 4618 7142 12578 10391 3708 9482 4434 7525 5178 5853 9917 8399 8751 2595 5903 14131 14231 3815 2738 2699 5255 6564 1737 2504 8060 1783 27027 14252 1975 4325 19665 5386 4918 7304 2565 12155 1795 15995 6128 5918 16610 18171 1759 2783 3092 5628 4820 2754 13057 6014 4958 3644 3271 2010 5160 20877 9509 3493 4177 3756 3104 2585 5626 2022 3180 10271 5307 4390 2168 7215 3205 14415 4887 7386 2735 8439 3290 13912 5165 5179 13193 2741 6227 4297 4533 20211 4223 5537 3208 16243 3794 3565 14595 4292 5287 4344 3381 10244 5927 3196 4217 13848 8399 23928 10785 15525 5963 44357 24138 2924 14040 4177 5170 32300 12003 9300 2499 1518 38332 4577 19961 1782 1977 10508 1364 1981 4562 7896 12854 2929 3556 4507 18489 6184 23228 1579 4026 6358 3658 3754 6526 1784 6680 8800 2598 3538 10677 12466 3890 21514 5408 3593 17701 6040 6971 8488 5987 8830 9230 6374 23346 6061 3247 5695 3140 7395 1655 15730 4649 4390 3480 14483 3922 3778 4682 4736 837 1197 16502 19795 4367 3235 14935 3192 4894 31381 8741 9051 9192 3445 3279 3557 4643 9939 1065 2912 4597 3215 3384 3140 3890 4990 3148 5510 8460 8162 10221 14750 4711 5380 10286 6088 3884 3274 13949 10502 13931 3260 2519 15085 3635 10385 10627 7345 12688 3186 3649 1788 6349 5130 2993 1946 8383 4326 12716 5938 2563 775 20501 11642 3910 3366 3261 17307 15065 17067 14816 12062 4979 5172 3945 5015 2692 4638 3972 820 6176 3152 2767 3791 9280 20903 9647 3293 5618 15310 4249 5457 14949 3250 2802 3380 6388 4584 3305 8541
2021-01-06 1743 2803 5769 4398 5782 7367 7491 2633 16240 20500 13260 2801 13670 4871 5346 5617 8320 16460 64010 4706 13030 6757 3771 18380 3451 13810 4745 35240 7352 3617 17270 5635 9560 21460 3587 17730 4111 6692 4670 7272 12700 10480 3814 9740 4532 7666 5388 6019 10160 8482 8990 2661 6130 14420 14540 3865 2829 2773 5317 6852 1796 2623 8410 1817 27410 14540 2015 4532 20340 5557 4986 7542 2644 12380 1825 16150 6331 6009 16970 18710 1821 2835 3168 5796 4864 2798 13160 6134 5114 3828 3361 2075 5315 21490 9760 3599 4238 3807 3197 2661 5774 2078 3219 10410 5383 4501 2238 7391 3292 14870 4995 7606 2808 8642 3345 14300 5362 5288 13560 2842 6340 4394 4661 20680 4337 5688 3266 16730 3853 3709 15100 4440 5361 4477 3612 10540 6056 3273 4323 13960 8588 24150 11100 16000 6073 44800 24410 3059 14570 4253 5219 32940 12280 9520 2594 1551 38670 4649 20460 1801 2028 10790 1397 2045 4696 8038 13190 3012 3673 4562 18610 6258 24010 1597 4078 6400 3761 3804 6575 1835 6810 8883 2639 3595 10920 12650 3983 21730 5521 3635 17840 6156 7076 8635 6087 9040 9318 6542 23960 6147 3315 5895 3194 7546 1693 15880 4763 4442 3561 14610 3997 3891 4757 4967 851 1216 16670 20230 4426 3308 15340 3267 5019 31620 8930 9320 9370 3543 3367 3652 4715 10140 1090 2948 4707 3265 3482 3237 4028 5053 3224 5634 8577 8440 10520 15240 4841 5522 10490 6177 3926 3396 14130 10630 14080 3328 2569 15290 3762 10670 10810 7523 12810 3245 3761 1840 6489 5452 3080 1994 8522 4440 13070 6082 2612 788 21030 11800 4011 3483 3342 17450 15370 17530 15190 12320 5062 5314 4063 5210 2767 4797 4062 832 6283 3184 2840 3906 9500 21110 9930 3378 5822 15770 4349 5611 15370 3363 2916 3477 6585 4650 3379 8749
2021-01-07 1817 2889 5869 4586 5889 7499 7686 2718 16700 21090 13360 2837 13980 4983 5391 5699 8601 16860 65110 4764 13180 6803 3816 18500 3471 14230 4877 35440 7561 3716 17810 5759 9880 21720 3700 18240 4179 6877 4729 7393 12810 10560 3922 9990 4619 7789 5608 6168 10410 8565 9250 2719 6377 14670 14820 3906 2915 2845 5363 7144 1849 2726 8720 1852 27760 14810 2052 4753 20910 5723 5054 7757 2714 12590 1851 16270 6526 6096 17290 19270 1897 2871 3241 5947 4894 2841 13250 6230 5264 3989 3470 2134 5475 22070 10020 3697 4304 3845 3302 2715 5888 2125 3247 10520 5447 4603 2294 7561 3381 15350 5110 7797 2866 8831 3403 14690 5569 5385 13850 2946 6449 4491 4790 21150 4433 5840 3298 17160 3910 3832 15600 4583 5426 4589 3852 10870 6182 3337 4429 14060 8795 24310 11360 16380 6146 45140 24650 3176 15070 4319 5266 33520 12520 9700 2683 1581 38960 4712 20800 1822 2072 11100 1419 2111 4839 8135 13540 3087 3785 4612 18710 6316 24800 1613 4120 6432 3869 3846 6621 1897 6936 8951 2676 3650 11170 12810 4089 21920 5593 3675 17960 6267 7188 8747 6162 9230 9382 6707 24570 6220 3381 6066 3248 7721 1730 15990 4872 4483 3637 14700 4072 3976 4821 5180 867 1241 16800 20600 4474 3390 15670 3324 5154 31810 9100 9560 9530 3645 3459 3756 4779 10310 1108 2982 4787 3307 3585 3328 4134 5111 3278 5725 8674 8660 10810 15660 4992 5639 10670 6257 3959 3509 14300 10750 14200 3399 2613 15490 3880 10980 10970 7734 12920 3283 3873 1873 6584 5705 3177 2043 8646 4560 13400 6200 2637 798 21560 11930 4087 3593 3428 17550 15660 17950 15530 12540 5137 5462 4180 5383 2824 4981 4145 842 6367 3215 2892 4034 9700 21270 10180 3471 5981 16200 4452 5747 15780 3454 3031 3554 6777 4706 3445 8926
2021-01-08 1880 2976 5957 4711 5952 7605 7820 2806 17030 21550 13450 2870 14270 5065 5433 5781 8837 17210 66190 4819 13280 6842 3851 18610 3490 14630 5005 35600 7718 3794 18360 5878 10050 21950 3803 18760 4242 7058 4775 7509 12900 10630 3997 10230 4699 7877 5804 6298 10670 8634 9500 2761 6528 14890 15060 3944 2995 2919 5402 7407 1896 2808 9030 1882 28050 15060 2087 4927 21330 5845 5108 7964 2778 12800 1872 16360 6701 6184 17570 19740 1976 2903 3295 6082 4923 2881 13340 6312 5411 4085 3563 2191 5620 22640 10260 3768 4348 3883 3406 2767 5989 2154 3269 10630 5506 4707 2338 7733 3463 15850 5218 7980 2919 8995 3459 15080 5772 5468 14050 3052 6557 4585 4874 21570 4525 5970 3322 17570 3953 3939 16070 4717 5490 4684 4085 11200 6302 3398 4532 14150 8988 24420 11610 16640 6186 45400 24850 3293 15370 4378 5313 34070 12750 9820 2772 1606 39190 4776 21020 1842 2115 11400 1441 2180 4974 8225 13880 3158 3884 4650 18820 6368 25440 1630 4161 6463 3980 3889 6667 1946 7055 9001 2712 3699 11410 12950 4183 22090 5649 3716 18040 6374 7264 8817 6238 9400 9438 6871 25150 6293 3435 6215 3300 7881 1764 16060 4966 4523 3702 14780 4126 4051 4870 5341 881 1263 16890 20910 4512 3465 15950 3372 5278 32000 9280 9790 9680 3744 3551 3838 4823 10490 1128 3017 4848 3348 3666 3397 4198 5154 3334 5797 8762 8830 11070 15920 5121 5742 10830 6336 3992 3624 14460 10840 14300 3443 2654 15700 3964 11280 11080 7887 13000 3318 3985 1901 6673 5951 3264 2088 8761 4675 13670 6296 2657 808 22050 12030 4159 3691 3492 17620 15950 18300 15850 12720 5191 5586 4300 5489 2878 5170 4215 850 6413 3246 2930 4142 9880 21410 10390 3528 6125 16520 4531 5850 16090 3546 3135 3619 6955 4754 3509 9102
2021-01-09 1943 3065 6046 4882 6039 7735 7998 2897 17540 22130 13540 2906 14590 5166 5481 5881 9081 17620 67330 4876 13430 6896 3896 18740 3512 15090 5146 35790 7948 3910 18920 6020 10320 22250 3921 19290 4325 7248 4829 7633 13000 10720 4102 10500 4787 7993 5944 6464 10940 8711 9760 2813 6735 15160 15370 3990 3089 2993 5452 7706 1946 2907 9370 1919 28400 15340 2126 5144 21840 5995 5169 8185 2856 13020 1896 16500 6910 6272 17870 20240 2057 2938 3373 6243 4958 2926 13430 6405 5571 4229 3673 2252 5778 23220 10520 3870 4399 3920 3518 2835 6119 2205 3295 10760 5575 4813 2400 7906 3553 16360 5337 8181 2979 9191 3519 15480 5994 5555 14350 3169 6673 4685 4989 22030 4614 6127 3360 18040 4006 4045 16560 4870 5554 4788 4354 11550 6425 3462 4641 14250 9189 24580 11870 17010 6257 45740 25090 3419 15850 4445 5359 34640 13000 10000 2871 1633 39460 4840 21430 1862 2159 11710 1463 2250 5113 8327 14240 3240 3996 4697 18920 6419 26220 1646 4206 6494 4093 3938 6716 2001 7168 9071 2753 3754 11670 13110 4284 22280 5735 3757 18140 6486 7362 8955 6314 9590 9501 7031 25790 6366 3502 6391 3355 8060 1800 16160 5078 4562 3791 14870 4197 4138 4927 5552 899 1287 17020 21320 4557 3550 16320 3437 5418 32220 9450 10040 9840 3848 3652 3949 4890 10660 1160 3051 4932 3389 3778 3474 4323 5210 3395 5905 8859 9120 11370 16320 5270 5892 11050 6421 4026 3746 14630 10960 14410 3489 2695 15900 4076 11590 11230 8097 13100 3359 4102 1931 6802 6256 3364 2141 8890 4803 14010 6424 2682 816 22590 12150 4239 3807 3563 17720 16250 18740 16200 12980 5272 5737 4421 5622 2938 5366 4303 860 6506 3277 2997 4256 10070 21600 10660 3599 6293 16960 4626 5984 16480 3674 3256 3698 7145 4811 3574 9288
2021-01-10 2013 3158 6145 5052 6124 7868 8200 2991 17970 22830 13640 2942 14890 5290 5521 5966 9353 18030 68450 4935 13560 6944 3932 18850 3533 15560 5290 35940 8150 4004 19500 6147 10550 22510 4040 19840 4406 7447 4882 7759 13120 10800 4225 10740 4869 8120 6153 6644 11200 8786 10020 2858 6942 15400 15660 4024 3183 3069 5497 8022 1998 2994 9720 1956 28760 15610 2163 5360 22370 6149 5236 8411 2928 13240 1918 16600 7126 6360 18170 20770 2141 2971 3448 6425 4984 2971 13520 6502 5740 4380 3789 2314 5936 23890 10760 3960 4457 3958 3635 2890 6227 2240 3322 10890 5638 4921 2454 8081 3648 16880 5453 8352 3043 9371 3578 15890 6247 5652 14690 3293 6789 4786 5112 22470 4701 6301 3390 18520 4055 4160 17110 5027 5619 4894 4651 11910 6550 3523 4754 14340 9373 24740 12130 17420 6317 46070 25320 3549 16390 4510 5407 35230 13250 10180 2975 1662 39760 4904 21830 1883 2204 12000 1487 2322 5250 8414 14570 3313 4114 4744 19020 6483 27030 1663 4246 6526 4209 3990 6761 2059 7289 9141 2792 3810 11940 13270 4396 22470 5818 3798 18240 6596 7429 9056 6390 9790 9571 7199 26360 6440 3569 6591 3410 8255 1836 16280 5191 4603 3861 14960 4278 4231 4983 5770 913 1311 17150 21700 4596 3635 16660 3493 5540 32440 9630 10300 10000 3955 3754 4075 4947 10840 1179 3086 5030 3434 3880 3565 4447 5253 3466 5994 8958 9410 11630 16710 5433 6053 11190 6505 4057 3866 14800 11070 14510 3539 2730 16110 4202 11920 11380 8299 13210 3400 4228 1962 6920 6547 3466 2192 9007 4922 14330 6566 2707 826 23070 12260 4319 3948 3640 17840 16530 19180 16560 13200 5332 5887 4546 5764 3001 5571 4386 870 6558 3308 3061 4378 10290 21760 10930 3684 6473 17300 4744 6135 16760 3736 3386 3771 7329 4870 3639 9474
2021-01-11 2094 3257 6249 5268 6226 8035 8432 3089 18430 23550 13740 2977 15220 5433 5571 6077 9636 18440 69580 4996 13720 7001 3988 18970 3558 16060 5471 36110 8401 4141 20090 6288 10870 22820 4160 20400 4485 7661 4943 7890 13220 10890 4348 11000 4951 8264 6362 6828 11480 8870 10290 2907 7168 15640 15980 4063 3294 3148 5545 8343 2059 3102 10090 1996 29130 15870 2204 5603 22940 6325 5323 8658 3007 13470 1943 16730 7338 6451 18510 21310 2227 3007 3532 6605 5011 3017 13630 6602 5939 4555 3925 2376 6105 24500 11020 4050 4516 3996 3752 2959 6372 2296 3351 11020 5707 5033 2514 8260 3752 17410 5576 8547 3114 9572 3637 16310 6497 5749 15030 3415 6910 4901 5255 22910 4810 6475 3422 18990 4112 4293 17670 5198 5685 5013 4978 12280 6684 3587 4866 14440 9584 24930 12420 17850 6385 46490 25590 3709 16910 4576 5455 35830 13510 10410 3078 1688 40080 4970 22260 1904 2250 12320 1512 2396 5411 8520 14930 3389 4236 4797 19120 6545 27930 1680 4298 6558 4328 4038 6812 2127 7423 9214 2835 3867 12210 13410 4511 22650 5912 3839 18360 6717 7510 9195 6468 10000 9647 7375 27000 6514 3631 6803 3463 8446 1876 16400 5325 4645 3955 15050 4348 4327 5040 6027 927 1335 17290 22160 4648 3723 16980 3553 5692 32660 9810 10570 10160 4067 3860 4205 5009 11010 1208 3121 5126 3484 4014 3650 4611 5305 3541 6087 9064 9720 11910 17180 5599 6226 11380 6592 4100 3995 14970 11170 14620 3597 2767 16320 4338 12270 11530 8495 13330 3445 4348 1997 7035 6913 3588 2245 9157 5046 14730 6710 2736 838 23580 12390 4414 4089 3729 17970 16840 19640 16910 13420 5399 6047 4678 5938 3060 5784 4488 884 6610 3340 3146 4511 10480 21960 11210 3765 6642 17780 4863 6316 17080 3843 3525 3850 7540 4935 3708 9673
2021-01-12 2185 3350 6362 5608 6354 8216 8721 3191 19020 24340 13840 3016 15600 5608 5620 6203 9983 18920 70790 5051 13870 7047 4035 19100 3583 16570 5705 36310 8709 4306 20710 6446 11260 23110 4297 20980 4559 7890 5004 8021 13320 10990 4497 11280 5048 8414 6622 7054 11760 8958 10560 2976 7525 15940 16330 4110 3407 3228 5598 8776 2111 3196 10550 2045 29580 16170 2244 5970 23630 6534 5406 8927 3090 13700 1972 16870 7577 6542 18850 21940 2318 3047 3654 6882 5046 3071 13720 6709 6140 4832 4090 2446 6295 25200 11330 4178 4585 4035 3881 3046 6533 2376 3379 11170 5777 5148 2579 8442 3861 17970 5718 8749 3185 9793 3696 16750 6770 5876 15410 3552 7032 5031 5418 23440 4937 6682 3452 19510 4176 4445 18280 5384 5751 5165 5330 12660 6822 3657 4990 14540 9805 25100 12700 18410 6459 46890 25860 3899 17720 4646 5503 36490 13780 10670 3189 1720 40390 5036 22820 1925 2297 12670 1548 2474 5614 8656 15330 3466 4355 4852 19230 6607 28980 1697 4348 6594 4452 4102 6864 2226 7558 9305 2878 3930 12500 13590 4638 22850 6040 3881 18470 6835 7615 9382 6547 10250 9709 7568 27660 6589 3701 7067 3523 8655 1913 16520 5457 4686 4075 15180 4440 4437 5102 6377 944 1361 17440 22590 4696 3824 17290 3616 5869 32890 10000 10870 10350 4191 3988 4407 5074 11200 1233 3157 5247 3538 4168 3760 4816 5354 3631 6195 9171 10170 12250 17760 5805 6483 11580 6686 4132 4126 15140 11310 14720 3673 2818 16530 4517 12650 11720 8741 13440 3487 4478 2041 7127 7246 3712 2305 9319 5184 15170 6882 2759 849 24150 12520 4536 4266 3858 18140 17150 20190 17310 13630 5497 6228 4823 6216 3124 6008 4598 897 6688 3372 3228 4681 10710 22150 11500 3878 6843 18140 5012 6510 17490 3930 3684 3935 7775 4997 3780 9881

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.