COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-09

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	12-27	12-27	--	12-08	12-28	12-27	12-29	12-28	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	10-26	--	12-27	12-27	--	--	--	12-25	12-27	12-29	11-15	--	12-26	10-29	12-27	--	12-27	12-14	12-28	--	12-29	12-21	--	12-27	--	--	12-27	11-03	12-25	12-29	12-28	12-08	12-29	12-21	12-27	10-13	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-27	--	12-27	12-28	--	12-27	12-29	--	12-29	12-28	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-28	12-29	12-28	--	12-28	--	--	12-29	12-29	12-29	12-04	12-29	12-27	12-28	--	--	12-27	11-02	--	10-31	--	12-29	--	12-27	12-29	12-26	12-28	12-18	12-27	--	12-29	12-28	--	12-25	12-28	--	12-27	--	12-27	--	12-29	12-27	12-29	12-27	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-14	12-29	12-26	12-29	12-28	--	12-29	12-28	12-27	--	--	12-27	12-29	--	--	12-29	10-28	12-27	10-27	--	--	--	12-28	--	--	--	--	11-29	--	--	12-27	12-27	--	09-22	--	12-21	11-04	--	12-27	12-21	12-28	12-21	--	12-21	12-29	--	--	09-26	11-04	12-29	12-10	12-27	10-25	12-27	12-28	11-04	12-27	--	11-03	12-28	12-27	12-29	12-28	--	12-29	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	12-29	--	--	12-27	--	--	12-28	12-28	12-21	12-27	10-18	12-13	10-12	12-13	10-17	--	12-29	10-09	12-28	12-29	12-29	10-19	--	11-01	12-26	--	--	12-26	09-29	12-29	--	--	12-26	12-28	12-27	12-28	--	--	--	12-29	11-09	12-26	12-26	12-24	--	12-29	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-21	--	12-27	12-21	--	--	10-31	12-27	--	--	11-01	--	12-28	--	12-27	12-27	12-07	12-27	10-18	--	12-27	--	--	12-27	12-28	12-29	--	12-26	12-12	12-21	--	--	12-28	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	10-28	12-29	--	12-18	--	--	12-26	--	12-28	--	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-03	--	12-28	12-29	12-21	--	12-26	12-26	12-29	12-29	12-28	12-29	--	12-28	--	12-29	--	--	--
Peak daily increment			117	186		167	184	99	566	618	191	68	318	140	79		298	433				56	69	160	49		147	441	237		619	152	360		123	506		192			136	141	105	270	97	146	202	176	261	131	265	58	231	278	310		110	74		287	67		339	37	408	322	44	219	626	158		195			30	187	213	116	360	640	69			165	110		225		181		117	65	152	610	268	99		70	100		127	64		141		103		185	101	538	138		61	204	61	414	186	127	355	111	116	134	145	470	116	159	56	481		135	494	156			330	283			114	295	201	360				416					116			198	90		611		418	29		298	50	72	148		354	90			392	85	886	22	56	159	118	52	108	75		122	46	59	322	178		249			256					228			621			189	59	187	54	196	139	64	95	199		102	67	205	18	28	237		85	92			134	438	234			104	98	129	81				103	83	106	83	121		81	111	110	278	296		144	153			57	134			194		44		129	323	182	205	177		118			395	103	51		125	362	138			572	170	89	136	93	258	367		383			144		188		172	87	18	92	42		130	224	213		89	160	514	125	163	437		138		212
Days since peak			13	13		32	12	13	11	12	88	13	17	12	75		13	13				15	13	11	55		14	72	13		13	26	12		11	19		13			13	67	15	11	12	32	11	19	13	88	13	12	13	13	13		13	12		13	11		11	12	13	11	11	12	11	12		12			11	11	11	36	11	13	12			13	68		70		11		13	11	14	12	22	13		11	12		15	12		13		13		11	13	11	13		13	12	14	11	13	13	11	12	13	27	11	26	11	14	11	12		11	12	13			13	11			11	73	13	74				12					41			13	13		109		19	66		13	19	12	19		19	11			105	66	11	30	13	76	13	12	66	13		67	12	13	11	12		11			76					11			13			12	12	19	13	83	27	89	27	84		11	92	12	11	11	82		69	14			14	102	11			14	12	13	12				11	61	14	14	16		11	11	13	12	19		13	19			70	13			69		12		13	13	33	13	83		13			13	12	11		14	28	19			12	12	19	13	13	73	11		22			14		12		13	13	27	11	37		12	11	19		14	14	11	11	12	11		12		11
Last total	1910	3037	6012	4799	6122	7703	7940	2834	17443	21878	13480	2920	14178	5266	5467	5959	8962	17371	67897	4841	13419	6960	3898	18843	3526	15280	5058	35879	7830	3915	18821	5784	10344	22302	3868	18750	4356	7047	4849	7579	13035	10686	3996	10410	4753	8000	5781	6323	10774	8752	9592	2787	6473	14916	15187	4042	3043	2934	5534	7375	1904	2859	9038	1877	28122	15369	2097	4975	21929	5888	5150	7888	2813	13145	1886	16610	6815	6270	17772	20308	1923	2969	3360	6089	4934	2966	13444	6394	5570	4175	3602	2188	5600	22814	10157	3793	4451	3970	3411	2917	6005	2194	3332	10635	5602	4658	2374	7863	3492	16121	5277	8204	2917	9137	3485	15425	5727	5482	14464	3043	6577	4664	4993	21570	4635	6022	3418	17895	3996	3936	16169	4803	5613	4888	4379	11204	6548	3464	4574	14359	9011	24648	11928	17352	6391	45726	25259	3275	15840	4467	5345	35068	13092	9930	2763	1648	39747	4923	21120	1863	2133	11486	1485	2168	4940	8212	14027	3212	3917	4768	18941	6391	25921	1636	4206	6481	4088	3927	6672	1998	7159	9113	2738	3729	11796	12880	4444	22471	5774	3736	18142	6555	7360	9129	6430	9609	9619	7075	25315	6342	3541	6259	3324	7954	1769	16213	4943	4619	3782	14882	4261	4064	4895	5291	904	1289	17158	21529	4502	3476	16564	3434	5218	32313	9503	9903	9801	3699	3589	3849	4912	10579	1164	3058	4849	3387	3661	3411	4165	5339	3384	5882	8758	9006	11063	16519	5155	5803	11075	6391	4021	3686	14575	10954	14565	3515	2647	15683	3972	11355	11050	7873	13150	3411	3989	1951	6922	5968	3297	2104	8878	4686	13878	6314	2757	813	22437	12235	4199	3636	3537	17841	16318	18732	16154	12875	5220	5653	4266	5582	2936	5239	4234	855	6448	3279	2982	4176	10141	21736	10651	3518	6080	16943	4652	5923	16395	3682	3237	3772	7000	4883	3591	9255
Last daily increment	33	70	62	89	94	64	97	33	204	289	61	36	96	59	21	103	143	182	952	35	119	41	40	128	14	372	64	182	75	57	330	41	141	246	46	198	58	79	32	58	104	47	36	107	55	67	107	80	168	93	107	34	72	144	195	44	59	43	54	109	20	56	176	10	194	206	17	94	317	67	32	83	35	213	15	125	108	50	244	330	25	25	45	73	20	44	98	45	119	76	63	33	51	325	66	35	73	41	61	28	58	28	32	61	44	43	49	102	43	238	62	157	39	81	40	208	90	40	220	56	60	43	83	180	65	83	32	228	36	52	182	82	73	89	132	127	74	41	55	73	73	133	235	237	58	303	194	41	248	39	27	532	207	79	40	14	265	61	178	15	20	127	12	26	53	43	177	32	58	35	90	28	350	11	41	19	73	29	19	25	143	47	25	45	193	76	71	155	73	21	84	91	64	125	72	143	95	85	298	47	50	71	34	80	15	81	43	55	33	73	52	45	42	97	10	16	135	339	20	41	317	46	42	143	149	154	119	45	46	40	33	132	17	20	32	33	41	50	46	81	51	82	65	151	97	180	74	75	164	61	26	69	100	84	111	49	26	110	62	133	62	98	80	37	41	31	113	102	57	33	81	51	165	54	38	2	238	94	33	42	55	108	244	201	158	173	37	71	44	92	41	118	53	6	67	29	36	35	125	164	218	36	70	304	80	74	242	70	56	64	76	60	55	139
Last week	380	567	535	848	650	821	982	429	2665	3057	520	345	1436	804	284	695	1307	2279	7712	372	943	384	353	933	165	2986	692	1350	1160	654	3020	486	1848	2006	624	2307	550	928	358	725	747	493	472	1402	519	789	993	771	1334	521	1303	329	994	1302	1509	356	483	375	413	1350	305	604	1689	174	1887	1777	210	998	3426	787	385	994	395	1487	153	942	1060	556	1879	3163	266	323	428	806	198	305	661	606	940	887	515	307	682	3210	1075	452	399	355	489	462	697	322	234	644	462	508	338	1024	470	2613	636	1323	327	1104	279	2291	964	588	1984	487	559	602	708	2166	641	767	308	2574	328	633	2405	793	505	834	1497	1529	886	439	576	778	943	1172	1805	2719	646	2265	1716	616	2639	430	293	4401	1706	1043	405	207	2264	528	2022	115	278	1453	208	324	635	576	1830	431	599	399	739	363	4128	100	290	227	648	287	248	338	784	508	211	303	1675	769	758	1428	569	243	756	748	649	963	685	1184	577	1074	3091	476	449	849	294	802	208	801	513	346	479	673	485	493	381	943	89	131	1033	2739	250	402	2531	407	561	1451	1246	1398	953	442	461	539	417	1109	158	221	413	289	412	409	465	475	398	604	549	1311	1362	2695	718	677	1247	524	220	603	1007	702	961	399	229	1040	555	1475	777	898	709	321	534	284	855	1489	464	257	797	553	1802	620	321	71	2937	942	485	478	450	850	1902	2511	2068	1323	393	703	556	928	396	922	420	62	471	201	345	640	1288	1289	1592	383	729	2576	607	746	2231	671	683	602	1010	449	442	1150
Previous peak date	--	11-03	10-27	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	03-23	--	10-14	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	10-28	--	10-19	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-25	--	10-14	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-30	10-12	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	09-28	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-21	--	--	11-03	11-02	11-01	10-13	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-29	10-28	10-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-03	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	05-11	11-02	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-18	--	10-19	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-26	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-01	--	10-12	10-30	10-06
Previous peak daily increment		26	82		62							29				77			95		163	99	55	235		135		55					71	320					58	75	159						40						34	128		61			66				69		293	144	20				53			182		249	57		252				28			37		81			32						59	75					41	128	76				28			79	31	55				65							48		43		52				65										160		86	541	255					564						64								91									51						97				68			608		43					82		101			94	49	37	41	42							41							231			196				113					25	66	141							24	73		76							122	89			183	125		36		160					27	46			95								47			138					162			135	60		23						91		21			320				137				41		35		68	40	130
Low between peaks			28									8										27	19	60				27					21								55						9						16	55									14		106	71	9									85	18		91												8							16						24					12				6	24				16							12		11																			154																													14										6			70														15	12	20																					33					10	22								11			24																					2															27					74												19					75				21

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-10 to 2021-01-16

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-09	1910	3037	6012	4799	6122	7703	7940	2834	17443	21878	13480	2920	14178	5266	5467	5959	8962	17371	67897	4841	13419	6960	3898	18843	3526	15280	5058	35879	7830	3915	18821	5784	10344	22302	3868	18750	4356	7047	4849	7579	13035	10686	3996	10410	4753	8000	5781	6323	10774	8752	9592	2787	6473	14916	15187	4042	3043	2934	5534	7375	1904	2859	9038	1877	28122	15369	2097	4975	21929	5888	5150	7888	2813	13145	1886	16610	6815	6270	17772	20308	1923	2969	3360	6089	4934	2966	13444	6394	5570	4175	3602	2188	5600	22814	10157	3793	4451	3970	3411	2917	6005	2194	3332	10635	5602	4658	2374	7863	3492	16121	5277	8204	2917	9137	3485	15425	5727	5482	14464	3043	6577	4664	4993	21570	4635	6022	3418	17895	3996	3936	16169	4803	5613	4888	4379	11204	6548	3464	4574	14359	9011	24648	11928	17352	6391	45726	25259	3275	15840	4467	5345	35068	13092	9930	2763	1648	39747	4923	21120	1863	2133	11486	1485	2168	4940	8212	14027	3212	3917	4768	18941	6391	25921	1636	4206	6481	4088	3927	6672	1998	7159	9113	2738	3729	11796	12880	4444	22471	5774	3736	18142	6555	7360	9129	6430	9609	9619	7075	25315	6342	3541	6259	3324	7954	1769	16213	4943	4619	3782	14882	4261	4064	4895	5291	904	1289	17158	21529	4502	3476	16564	3434	5218	32313	9503	9903	9801	3699	3589	3849	4912	10579	1164	3058	4849	3387	3661	3411	4165	5339	3384	5882	8758	9006	11063	16519	5155	5803	11075	6391	4021	3686	14575	10954	14565	3515	2647	15683	3972	11355	11050	7873	13150	3411	3989	1951	6922	5968	3297	2104	8878	4686	13878	6314	2757	813	22437	12235	4199	3636	3537	17841	16318	18732	16154	12875	5220	5653	4266	5582	2936	5239	4234	855	6448	3279	2982	4176	10141	21736	10651	3518	6080	16943	4652	5923	16395	3682	3237	3772	7000	4883	3591	9255
2021-01-10	1910	3128	6048	4928	6247	7876	8102	2861	17850	22330	13550	2967	14660	5266	5506	6025	8962	17900	69090	4912	13580	6979	3915	18950	3550	15790	5163	36110	8029	3915	19310	6077	10340	22590	4005	19460	4356	7280	4864	7672	13080	10690	4070	10630	4753	8133	6021	6586	11000	8857	9820	2787	6526	15230	15620	4064	3125	2995	5534	7643	1965	2894	9320	1907	28220	15690	2123	5219	22460	6017	5150	8099	2864	13360	1907	16610	7043	6357	18170	20310	1938	3016	3411	6224	4964	3000	13510	6479	5709	4382	3682	2202	5722	23330	10610	3877	4557	3985	3522	3041	6125	2194	3366	10640	5691	4687	2428	8022	3628	16500	5387	8343	2963	9330	3594	15780	5848	5611	14780	3177	6780	4821	5097	22270	4687	6213	3456	18290	4015	4058	16170	4947	5740	4888	4565	11490	6678	3489	4574	14390	9180	24870	12200	17740	6499	46000	25530	3361	16240	4467	5398	35670	13320	10170	2840	1693	40060	4994	21710	1882	2172	11740	1485	2168	4966	8379	14340	3246	4063	4869	19050	6413	26520	1652	4254	6512	4214	3972	6737	2004	7310	9187	2796	3742	12140	12970	4504	22680	5774	3773	18290	6586	7360	9290	6517	9680	9700	7288	25850	6442	3541	6384	3366	8230	1778	16370	5163	4671	3888	14980	4364	4134	4947	5515	918	1310	17280	21960	4545	3600	16860	3492	5427	32480	9630	10230	10010	3773	3671	3902	4912	10780	1173	3091	4916	3387	3739	3454	4248	5425	3441	5979	8839	9300	11490	16910	5272	5929	11260	6391	4055	3779	14720	11080	14690	3515	2684	15920	4060	11620	11280	8126	13290	3477	4080	1985	6996	6152	3321	2104	9000	4864	14340	6530	2805	827	23070	12320	4297	3745	3607	18050	16720	19130	16570	13140	5327	5776	4348	5606	3001	5356	4349	865	6553	3312	3008	4176	10330	21980	10960	3568	6222	17410	4745	6021	16870	3682	3347	3942	7145	4930	3675	9500
2021-01-11	1960	3252	6155	5049	6384	8094	8267	2941	18250	22900	13650	3015	14980	5326	5565	6151	9094	18390	70590	4978	13780	7001	3932	19120	3579	16360	5296	36370	8237	4000	19810	6192	10560	22990	4128	20000	4401	7512	4938	7817	13210	10730	4142	10860	4805	8289	6219	6763	11230	8950	10060	2812	6581	15470	15910	4086	3207	3058	5570	7936	2029	2927	9680	1937	28320	16080	2162	5415	23010	6150	5202	8322	2914	13580	1928	16740	7246	6445	18550	20550	1954	3063	3492	6362	4995	3048	13670	6563	5908	4610	3764	2220	5844	23860	10860	3962	4655	4002	3622	3154	6289	2264	3400	10690	5779	4794	2481	8184	3737	16880	5493	8482	3009	9570	3664	16140	6084	5740	15090	3275	6955	4961	5200	22740	4791	6380	3515	18700	4036	4191	16370	5109	5862	4982	4850	11800	6811	3550	4634	14550	9350	25120	12470	18140	6631	46430	25850	3454	16640	4498	5462	36300	13550	10410	2919	1737	40500	5064	22160	1902	2211	12000	1506	2208	5058	8521	14650	3283	4199	4959	19160	6481	27120	1668	4316	6543	4349	4017	6797	2078	7458	9260	2837	3757	12470	13130	4634	22890	5833	3810	18450	6704	7441	9490	6601	9890	9780	7499	26400	6546	3584	6543	3407	8391	1788	16540	5291	4722	4003	15080	4466	4203	4999	5722	932	1331	17470	22500	4588	3683	17100	3547	5573	32720	9760	10520	10200	3846	3755	4021	4963	11010	1182	3125	4984	3412	3818	3527	4327	5509	3496	6095	8916	9540	11810	17320	5389	6060	11440	6466	4112	3868	14890	11210	14820	3556	2722	16130	4146	11890	11450	8306	13420	3544	4173	2036	7069	6331	3345	2126	9123	4979	14740	6695	2853	840	23720	12470	4409	3854	3674	18270	17110	19540	17020	13410	5423	5912	4449	5809	3066	5505	4448	876	6646	3344	3072	4243	10580	22230	11310	3643	6348	17910	4836	6186	17310	3744	3489	4089	7289	4977	3766	9730
2021-01-12	1988	3349	6250	5172	6482	8257	8429	3026	18660	23530	13740	3063	15340	5451	5618	6275	9210	18920	71930	5047	13940	7022	3949	19290	3610	16980	5442	36620	8442	4062	20330	6307	10700	23380	4246	20560	4443	7726	4997	7949	13330	10760	4214	11090	4846	8454	6426	6942	11460	9047	10290	2849	6642	15730	16220	4109	3288	3119	5602	8161	2074	2959	10010	1967	28430	16420	2191	5605	23540	6280	5249	8551	2964	13790	1949	16840	7442	6532	18880	20830	1972	3110	3562	6498	5025	3103	13790	6646	6080	4888	3845	2239	5968	24390	11110	4046	4739	4020	3728	3301	6464	2329	3434	10750	5866	4893	2535	8346	3832	17270	5597	8623	3054	9800	3732	16510	6282	5843	15400	3377	7116	5088	5305	23200	4884	6541	3560	19090	4056	4302	16610	5275	5991	5052	5127	12120	6942	3622	4693	14690	9520	25350	12750	18530	6752	46740	26130	3545	17040	4524	5515	36920	13770	10630	2997	1781	40900	5134	22580	1921	2249	12260	1539	2238	5141	8641	14980	3321	4322	5036	19270	6549	27740	1683	4356	6573	4468	4062	6841	2144	7606	9335	2873	3773	12770	13280	4735	23100	5883	3847	18590	6802	7500	9700	6686	10130	9860	7707	26940	6621	3620	6711	3448	8552	1799	16690	5397	4773	4106	15170	4570	4275	5050	5910	945	1351	17660	22970	4631	3757	17340	3603	5709	32930	9890	10820	10380	3918	3838	4136	4995	11230	1191	3158	5053	3445	3897	3595	4407	5596	3552	6209	8993	9830	12100	17720	5503	6188	11630	6540	4140	3958	15050	11320	14940	3606	2759	16290	4231	12160	11640	8475	13550	3599	4265	2105	7144	6512	3371	2146	9244	5124	15130	6827	2901	854	24340	12610	4515	3941	3741	18480	17450	19950	17460	13630	5504	6056	4554	5978	3129	5652	4532	886	6733	3375	3118	4303	10860	22460	11670	3724	6493	18380	4929	6317	17700	3796	3628	4227	7437	5025	3862	9940
2021-01-13	2018	3451	6334	5293	6589	8407	8593	3110	19070	24070	13830	3111	15610	5503	5663	6387	9306	19320	73200	5115	14080	7042	3966	19410	3641	17550	5571	36870	8654	4118	20830	6418	10830	23670	4350	21010	4470	7892	5048	8086	13420	10800	4286	11330	4885	8585	6617	7081	11690	9138	10530	2880	6703	15980	16490	4130	3371	3181	5636	8404	2110	2988	10320	1998	28540	16730	2218	5780	24090	6414	5274	8744	3013	14010	1969	16900	7599	6620	19180	21130	1990	3157	3622	6637	5056	3153	13880	6730	6225	5111	3927	2259	6091	24940	11340	4131	4825	4037	3798	3435	6587	2380	3467	10810	5953	4970	2589	8511	3921	17660	5701	8764	3099	9980	3810	16880	6467	5932	15720	3484	7251	5200	5411	23620	4988	6707	3621	19490	4075	4400	16840	5412	6119	5088	5357	12430	7076	3689	4734	14800	9700	25570	13030	18930	6876	47050	26410	3640	17450	4573	5561	37560	13990	10830	3077	1824	41270	5203	22970	1940	2288	12530	1557	2267	5214	8761	15300	3359	4432	5099	19380	6614	28360	1699	4403	6604	4578	4107	6880	2203	7754	9409	2907	3790	13040	13420	4838	23300	5930	3885	18740	6895	7532	9850	6768	10290	9930	7911	27500	6702	3640	6870	3489	8720	1811	16830	5487	4824	4182	15270	4674	4347	5100	6082	958	1372	17830	23390	4674	3829	17420	3658	5816	33110	10020	11140	10520	3991	3922	4229	5035	11410	1200	3192	5123	3467	3977	3681	4486	5683	3608	6306	9070	10040	12360	18120	5619	6319	11820	6605	4180	4047	15200	11410	15070	3644	2797	16450	4316	12430	11770	8631	13670	3658	4359	2150	7217	6692	3397	2173	9366	5216	15470	6933	2949	868	24910	12740	4607	4040	3806	18630	17810	20360	17820	13830	5573	6184	4651	6119	3194	5802	4601	896	6815	3407	3149	4345	11080	22650	11940	3792	6652	18800	5022	6436	18090	3831	3758	4357	7587	5071	3943	10150
2021-01-14	2036	3534	6423	5414	6684	8530	8759	3189	19490	24660	13920	3159	15840	5536	5700	6477	9404	19650	74290	5184	14210	7063	3983	19550	3664	18050	5703	37010	8869	4129	21260	6490	10980	23940	4453	21360	4504	8031	5125	8229	13500	10830	4358	11560	4919	8693	6789	7188	11920	9224	10770	2903	6765	16180	16740	4151	3454	3243	5674	8615	2155	3018	10550	2028	28650	16990	2247	5938	24650	6549	5291	8876	3062	14230	1989	16990	7771	6708	19460	21390	2007	3203	3676	6778	5086	3212	13960	6813	6357	5289	4011	2280	6216	25480	11530	4217	4907	4055	3867	3561	6674	2428	3500	10830	6039	5056	2644	8677	3994	18060	5806	8906	3145	10160	3885	17260	6590	6035	16040	3560	7390	5283	5518	23970	5063	6806	3667	19890	4095	4479	17020	5538	6250	5196	5589	12620	7211	3731	4787	14910	9870	25740	13320	19340	6970	47320	26650	3737	17870	4592	5597	38210	14210	10980	3158	1866	41580	5272	23260	1959	2327	12800	1575	2282	5280	8835	15640	3398	4525	5155	19490	6670	28980	1715	4446	6634	4673	4153	6916	2271	7906	9483	2937	3806	13280	13560	4972	23510	5971	3923	18840	6994	7570	10000	6852	10490	10010	8115	28060	6760	3679	7035	3531	8856	1823	16960	5569	4874	4259	15370	4781	4420	5151	6237	972	1393	17960	23770	4718	3896	17680	3715	5906	33290	10150	11350	10660	4064	4007	4322	5067	11560	1209	3225	5194	3481	4058	3758	4565	5762	3664	6396	9147	10250	12600	18540	5736	6452	12010	6629	4209	4136	15330	11500	15190	3684	2834	16590	4402	12710	11900	8786	13770	3703	4454	2191	7291	6875	3424	2189	9489	5308	15760	7019	2997	882	25310	12840	4680	4130	3872	18800	18080	20780	18140	14020	5633	6319	4691	6286	3258	5921	4668	907	6873	3438	3179	4380	11280	22810	12210	3876	6786	19230	5116	6572	18440	3882	3863	4458	7737	5118	4015	10320
2021-01-15	2047	3613	6487	5537	6762	8600	8927	3235	19910	25030	13970	3208	16000	5562	5744	6564	9441	19930	75190	5254	14300	7084	4000	19660	3679	18510	5789	37140	9086	4158	21550	6544	11010	24160	4533	21640	4540	8130	5163	8287	13580	10830	4431	11800	4928	8795	6938	7297	12160	9277	11020	2903	6828	16310	16940	4173	3539	3307	5694	8787	2193	3048	10780	2059	28760	17200	2262	6067	25210	6686	5299	8999	3111	14450	2010	17060	7914	6797	19680	21490	2026	3250	3693	6920	5117	3248	14030	6897	6487	5409	4095	2301	6341	26040	11650	4304	4975	4073	3932	3660	6737	2467	3534	10840	6126	5122	2701	8845	4053	18450	5911	9049	3191	10290	3940	17630	6707	6078	16360	3616	7499	5350	5625	24230	5136	6890	3702	20300	4114	4536	17090	5625	6383	5196	5790	12810	7347	3767	4803	15020	10050	25870	13610	19740	7065	47550	26840	3837	18290	4608	5637	38880	14440	11090	3240	1910	41870	5342	23470	1978	2367	13070	1597	2282	5314	8895	15970	3437	4589	5222	19600	6710	29620	1730	4479	6665	4752	4198	6947	2301	8060	9558	2965	3823	13470	13640	5089	23720	6007	3962	18930	7063	7570	10110	6935	10640	10090	8321	28630	6804	3710	7158	3572	8958	1835	17040	5626	4924	4322	15460	4891	4493	5202	6349	985	1413	18080	24090	4761	3942	17920	3772	5973	33420	10280	11560	10770	4138	4093	4376	5075	11710	1218	3259	5265	3497	4140	3805	4645	5818	3720	6472	9223	10410	12770	18950	5854	6586	12200	6672	4235	4226	15440	11570	15310	3706	2872	16670	4488	12990	11960	8876	13850	3736	4551	2211	7366	7061	3450	2191	9613	5385	15970	7089	3046	896	25700	12930	4737	4184	3939	18950	18320	21200	18380	14160	5677	6408	4709	6391	3324	6012	4727	917	6928	3469	3207	4406	11430	22950	12440	3908	6881	19560	5211	6666	18710	3932	3933	4536	7889	5166	4072	10480
2021-01-16	2088	3690	6552	5661	6858	8680	9096	3280	20340	25380	14040	3257	16160	5636	5776	6675	9601	20200	76240	5324	14420	7105	4017	19790	3697	18910	5870	37290	9306	4245	21940	6620	11190	24420	4610	21930	4612	8242	5194	8371	13670	10890	4504	12040	4990	8879	7082	7414	12390	9357	11270	2941	6891	16480	17160	4195	3625	3371	5753	8952	2223	3079	10980	2091	28870	17430	2287	6206	25770	6824	5353	9108	3161	14680	2030	17180	8064	6887	19950	21870	2044	3297	3748	7064	5147	3282	14120	6981	6608	5488	4181	2322	6468	26600	11770	4392	5042	4090	4001	3700	6808	2494	3568	10920	6213	5172	2758	9014	4110	18860	6017	9194	3237	10410	3979	18020	6812	6142	16690	3683	7559	5415	5733	24510	5208	6992	3739	20710	4134	4605	17350	5719	6520	5280	5984	12990	7485	3814	4872	15100	10230	26010	13910	20160	7132	47830	27050	3939	18710	4655	5668	39550	14660	11200	3323	1954	42120	5413	23720	1997	2406	13340	1613	2318	5387	8954	16310	3477	4662	5257	19710	6739	30250	1746	4518	6695	4836	4244	6976	2332	8218	9632	2996	3840	13690	13720	5196	23930	6084	4001	19000	7145	7637	10230	7020	10790	10170	8529	29200	6855	3769	7248	3614	9069	1848	17130	5699	4975	4377	15560	5003	4567	5254	6473	999	1434	18210	24470	4805	3994	18250	3831	6044	33590	10410	11700	10910	4212	4180	4429	5115	11840	1227	3293	5336	3533	4223	3856	4725	5887	3777	6551	9301	10580	12930	19370	5973	6722	12400	6740	4261	4317	15560	11670	15440	3757	2910	16780	4575	13280	12050	9002	13940	3772	4648	2232	7441	7250	3477	2225	9737	5458	16200	7165	3095	910	26050	13040	4780	4239	4006	19040	18580	21620	18620	14360	5736	6497	4773	6487	3390	6151	4788	928	7002	3501	3257	4466	11580	23130	12660	3951	6963	19900	5306	6750	19000	4022	4009	4629	8042	5214	4128	10630

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-10 to 2021-01-16

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-09	1910	3037	6012	4799	6122	7703	7940	2834	17443	21878	13480	2920	14178	5266	5467	5959	8962	17371	67897	4841	13419	6960	3898	18843	3526	15280	5058	35879	7830	3915	18821	5784	10344	22302	3868	18750	4356	7047	4849	7579	13035	10686	3996	10410	4753	8000	5781	6323	10774	8752	9592	2787	6473	14916	15187	4042	3043	2934	5534	7375	1904	2859	9038	1877	28122	15369	2097	4975	21929	5888	5150	7888	2813	13145	1886	16610	6815	6270	17772	20308	1923	2969	3360	6089	4934	2966	13444	6394	5570	4175	3602	2188	5600	22814	10157	3793	4451	3970	3411	2917	6005	2194	3332	10635	5602	4658	2374	7863	3492	16121	5277	8204	2917	9137	3485	15425	5727	5482	14464	3043	6577	4664	4993	21570	4635	6022	3418	17895	3996	3936	16169	4803	5613	4888	4379	11204	6548	3464	4574	14359	9011	24648	11928	17352	6391	45726	25259	3275	15840	4467	5345	35068	13092	9930	2763	1648	39747	4923	21120	1863	2133	11486	1485	2168	4940	8212	14027	3212	3917	4768	18941	6391	25921	1636	4206	6481	4088	3927	6672	1998	7159	9113	2738	3729	11796	12880	4444	22471	5774	3736	18142	6555	7360	9129	6430	9609	9619	7075	25315	6342	3541	6259	3324	7954	1769	16213	4943	4619	3782	14882	4261	4064	4895	5291	904	1289	17158	21529	4502	3476	16564	3434	5218	32313	9503	9903	9801	3699	3589	3849	4912	10579	1164	3058	4849	3387	3661	3411	4165	5339	3384	5882	8758	9006	11063	16519	5155	5803	11075	6391	4021	3686	14575	10954	14565	3515	2647	15683	3972	11355	11050	7873	13150	3411	3989	1951	6922	5968	3297	2104	8878	4686	13878	6314	2757	813	22437	12235	4199	3636	3537	17841	16318	18732	16154	12875	5220	5653	4266	5582	2936	5239	4234	855	6448	3279	2982	4176	10141	21736	10651	3518	6080	16943	4652	5923	16395	3682	3237	3772	7000	4883	3591	9255
2021-01-10	1960	3134	6084	4946	6228	7813	8082	2886	17840	22370	13550	2967	14410	5368	5507	6057	9140	17740	69090	4889	13570	7012	3941	18980	3545	15760	5160	36090	7989	3995	19280	5873	10580	22600	3963	19150	4441	7190	4895	7683	13160	10750	4071	10630	4818	8122	5965	6468	10970	8841	9780	2823	6627	15140	15460	4095	3123	2989	5586	7586	1951	2939	9370	1901	28400	15630	2125	5144	22460	5994	5205	8036	2871	13360	1907	16740	6992	6344	18060	20730	1963	3009	3415	6212	4964	3010	13540	6479	5727	4320	3674	2233	5707	23310	10330	3865	4532	4014	3495	2981	6092	2233	3369	10710	5674	4719	2431	8011	3570	16480	5381	8399	2967	9290	3542	15760	5859	5576	14770	3115	6674	4747	5090	21950	4723	6152	3460	18280	4048	4021	16480	4927	5687	4989	4613	11420	6679	3520	4659	14460	9150	24840	12220	17760	6485	46070	25550	3349	16220	4520	5389	35780	13350	10100	2836	1678	40110	5000	21490	1882	2172	11710	1511	2209	5019	8316	14300	3273	4020	4833	19050	6436	26500	1649	4248	6509	4187	3967	6712	2033	7286	9188	2780	3777	12070	12980	4559	22680	5854	3772	18260	6655	7440	9250	6533	9770	9710	7241	25780	6418	3608	6388	3370	8097	1795	16360	5026	4676	3833	15020	4348	4135	4944	5465	918	1312	17320	21960	4543	3545	17010	3486	5313	32530	9680	10130	9960	3769	3660	3930	4963	10750	1180	3089	4914	3428	3726	3476	4230	5413	3450	5978	8828	9230	11280	16920	5271	5902	11290	6460	4053	3780	14730	11060	14710	3559	2676	15850	4062	11570	11160	8059	13260	3466	4070	1993	7050	6184	3364	2136	8998	4781	14150	6430	2801	822	22890	12350	4269	3723	3600	17990	16630	19120	16460	13090	5280	5761	4342	5698	3001	5380	4312	864	6526	3309	3035	4262	10310	21940	10910	3569	6221	17410	4749	6030	16750	3777	3334	3873	7136	4952	3658	9460
2021-01-11	2052	3254	6180	5131	6376	7988	8265	2969	18350	22980	13640	3024	14720	5507	5558	6192	9390	18180	70550	4950	13760	7076	4009	19140	3572	16330	5294	36310	8236	4139	19850	5977	10980	22990	4091	19630	4544	7380	4963	7822	13280	10840	4169	10890	4917	8271	6178	6633	11220	8927	10030	2880	6829	15410	15760	4146	3220	3056	5642	7900	2016	3052	9770	1935	28780	16000	2169	5392	23100	6147	5279	8228	2934	13620	1930	16910	7214	6433	18440	21300	2026	3061	3507	6376	4997	3055	13660	6607	5927	4519	3791	2293	5838	23920	10550	3954	4613	4068	3601	3067	6230	2304	3408	10840	5755	4822	2492	8188	3671	16930	5493	8618	3031	9500	3594	16160	6034	5704	15110	3231	6792	4849	5213	22410	4852	6304	3514	18730	4108	4182	16960	5099	5762	5147	4967	11700	6833	3597	4781	14590	9340	25070	12540	18300	6604	46540	25890	3489	16690	4597	5442	36520	13640	10350	2921	1716	40510	5081	21960	1902	2220	11990	1542	2285	5151	8450	14630	3355	4154	4901	19170	6500	27320	1665	4305	6547	4323	4015	6760	2112	7417	9281	2823	3829	12410	13140	4695	22910	5966	3812	18400	6788	7578	9430	6635	9970	9800	7431	26370	6508	3690	6562	3424	8248	1836	16520	5128	4729	3953	15130	4430	4222	5007	5695	933	1337	17500	22520	4595	3628	17490	3548	5434	32780	9900	10370	10150	3858	3751	4058	5047	10960	1216	3125	5002	3478	3818	3554	4338	5480	3524	6095	8925	9500	11560	17440	5397	6042	11540	6549	4105	3890	14910	11200	14860	3630	2717	16080	4178	11880	11320	8265	13390	3526	4173	2039	7202	6478	3455	2185	9143	4891	14540	6580	2854	837	23490	12530	4370	3836	3695	18170	17010	19600	16910	13360	5364	5895	4461	5924	3072	5561	4403	875	6617	3339	3113	4412	10550	22180	11220	3648	6353	17950	4853	6189	17200	3933	3495	3979	7311	5025	3741	9690
2021-01-12	2120	3363	6281	5323	6487	8141	8448	3056	18900	23640	13730	3079	15040	5691	5607	6333	9630	18630	71930	5007	13940	7137	4065	19300	3599	16940	5440	36540	8477	4274	20450	6081	11340	23400	4221	20130	4643	7569	5021	7957	13410	10930	4271	11150	5011	8424	6399	6805	11460	9016	10270	2953	7029	15700	16080	4198	3320	3124	5698	8194	2077	3168	10160	1969	29130	16340	2211	5648	23740	6301	5355	8423	2999	13880	1953	17060	7438	6522	18800	21920	2089	3114	3597	6537	5033	3105	13760	6726	6121	4774	3909	2354	5974	24530	10780	4052	4684	4122	3713	3168	6376	2371	3444	10970	5832	4925	2559	8367	3771	17390	5604	8833	3092	9710	3647	16570	6207	5824	15450	3349	6908	4949	5334	22880	4972	6458	3562	19210	4168	4323	17460	5278	5838	5299	5342	11980	6983	3677	4900	14720	9530	25290	12880	18800	6714	46930	26200	3631	17170	4672	5491	37300	13940	10580	3011	1755	40900	5163	22420	1923	2266	12270	1578	2360	5281	8575	14960	3437	4286	4965	19280	6565	28150	1680	4352	6584	4453	4063	6806	2186	7548	9378	2865	3879	12750	13280	4825	23130	6068	3853	18530	6910	7698	9630	6738	10190	9900	7630	26970	6594	3767	6755	3479	8407	1875	16670	5224	4783	4060	15280	4514	4320	5067	5921	950	1362	17680	23030	4644	3711	18000	3617	5555	33030	10110	10630	10340	3955	3848	4192	5112	11170	1243	3162	5087	3533	3906	3632	4444	5548	3598	6212	9021	9800	11820	17970	5525	6184	11820	6639	4136	4004	15100	11340	15010	3705	2767	16300	4296	12200	11490	8468	13520	3583	4278	2096	7339	6783	3547	2234	9282	5007	14930	6714	2898	852	24100	12680	4471	3934	3778	18340	17380	20070	17340	13620	5444	6038	4583	6108	3145	5746	4486	886	6705	3370	3188	4561	10800	22410	11550	3736	6503	18490	4958	6332	17620	4061	3659	4084	7489	5099	3829	9910
2021-01-13	2192	3478	6369	5506	6601	8286	8629	3144	19410	24220	13830	3132	15330	5827	5655	6461	9880	19040	73320	5062	14100	7197	4112	19430	3626	17540	5577	36780	8702	4397	21050	6185	11680	23730	4347	20620	4728	7756	5076	8097	13530	11010	4374	11430	5103	8556	6604	6947	11710	9101	10520	3013	7224	15980	16380	4251	3422	3192	5752	8502	2135	3277	10550	2004	29470	16670	2253	5879	24370	6457	5422	8617	3064	14130	1976	17180	7657	6612	19150	22530	2154	3164	3674	6688	5066	3153	13860	6843	6302	4972	4014	2412	6109	25140	11000	4140	4751	4172	3809	3261	6499	2428	3481	11100	5904	5015	2624	8548	3870	17850	5714	9071	3153	9890	3704	16990	6383	5937	15790	3472	7016	5049	5453	23320	5104	6615	3618	19690	4221	4454	17960	5448	5914	5440	5718	12270	7141	3758	5003	14830	9720	25510	13240	19320	6827	47300	26510	3765	17650	4757	5538	38060	14220	10790	3102	1793	41270	5245	22830	1943	2313	12550	1606	2432	5407	8697	15300	3521	4415	5020	19400	6626	28960	1696	4401	6619	4578	4111	6851	2247	7679	9459	2907	3927	13070	13410	4952	23360	6171	3893	18660	7038	7792	9770	6843	10390	9990	7818	27580	6682	3836	6927	3535	8566	1914	16800	5318	4834	4138	15380	4599	4410	5127	6134	966	1389	17860	23490	4689	3794	18520	3677	5675	33270	10330	10870	10510	4047	3946	4293	5186	11360	1268	3199	5173	3581	3995	3720	4535	5616	3669	6312	9112	10080	12090	18460	5648	6328	12030	6729	4176	4122	15280	11460	15150	3773	2808	16510	4412	12520	11630	8662	13650	3641	4385	2140	7477	7100	3643	2285	9412	5118	15280	6830	2941	867	24690	12830	4564	4036	3859	18460	17760	20550	17730	13860	5510	6172	4698	6254	3213	5937	4562	897	6785	3400	3247	4675	11030	22600	11830	3808	6661	18970	5062	6463	18050	4181	3821	4184	7670	5165	3910	10140
2021-01-14	2260	3581	6454	5688	6713	8421	8808	3229	19930	24850	13920	3182	15610	5945	5701	6563	10140	19440	74630	5118	14260	7257	4155	19570	3649	18090	5718	36950	8943	4485	21680	6279	12070	24030	4474	21080	4793	7942	5143	8232	13640	11090	4471	11700	5193	8678	6813	7080	11970	9184	10770	3063	7415	16220	16690	4304	3527	3262	5805	8805	2199	3391	10890	2040	29830	16960	2295	6121	25010	6608	5482	8806	3130	14390	2000	17330	7884	6703	19500	23110	2219	3207	3748	6838	5097	3201	13950	6943	6482	5121	4149	2475	6248	25720	11210	4238	4810	4223	3909	3340	6603	2478	3517	11210	5968	5107	2678	8733	3966	18320	5824	9270	3206	10100	3758	17410	6555	6026	16140	3603	7125	5146	5572	23720	5209	6740	3666	20110	4266	4594	18440	5613	5991	5600	6111	12550	7293	3834	5120	14940	9920	25670	13630	19820	6911	47660	26770	3900	18150	4830	5582	38720	14500	10960	3190	1827	41590	5329	23150	1964	2359	12850	1633	2499	5530	8783	15650	3607	4539	5075	19510	6680	29750	1711	4448	6651	4694	4159	6897	2315	7816	9543	2948	3976	13410	13560	5092	23590	6260	3934	18770	7159	7881	9910	6948	10600	10070	8002	28200	6764	3910	7107	3591	8735	1955	16920	5410	4885	4215	15470	4684	4507	5189	6346	981	1420	18000	23910	4736	3877	18980	3730	5794	33500	10540	11110	10690	4141	4039	4395	5251	11540	1291	3236	5255	3624	4114	3803	4638	5682	3737	6404	9202	10360	12360	18940	5773	6464	12170	6816	4207	4237	15450	11580	15260	3842	2848	16710	4510	12820	11780	8865	13770	3691	4494	2179	7605	7432	3740	2330	9538	5231	15600	6941	2981	877	25200	12960	4647	4140	3935	18590	18110	21000	18080	14100	5563	6312	4793	6429	3276	6122	4647	908	6846	3431	3292	4789	11250	22770	12100	3905	6808	19440	5167	6594	18470	4293	3965	4276	7854	5233	3989	10360
2021-01-15	2311	3688	6536	5865	6800	8538	8989	3316	20390	25210	14000	3234	15860	6059	5746	6653	10400	19750	75850	5173	14380	7304	4200	19700	3669	18640	5842	37130	9141	4568	22190	6374	12350	24300	4605	21530	4858	8128	5192	8353	13730	11170	4574	11930	5276	8787	7004	7196	12220	9254	11020	3100	7594	16450	16980	4358	3636	3334	5848	9100	2261	3511	11230	2076	30130	17230	2334	6351	25540	6757	5538	8998	3199	14630	2023	17430	8112	6796	19830	23570	2287	3248	3803	6997	5130	3247	14030	7024	6660	5221	4276	2534	6382	26340	11420	4323	4874	4276	4008	3405	6698	2523	3550	11320	6029	5206	2731	8921	4062	18800	5933	9475	3259	10250	3810	17790	6733	6105	16410	3712	7234	5244	5688	24050	5315	6859	3710	20550	4309	4714	18910	5772	6069	5719	6553	12830	7425	3910	5205	15030	10120	25800	13830	20110	6976	47970	26980	4023	18660	4896	5625	39380	14730	11080	3279	1859	41880	5414	23390	1985	2402	13150	1661	2565	5657	8870	16000	3695	4651	5133	19630	6736	30390	1727	4495	6686	4802	4208	6942	2364	7945	9617	2988	4024	13720	13680	5225	23800	6332	3976	18870	7270	7947	10010	7035	10780	10150	8185	28840	6844	3981	7279	3648	8841	1995	17000	5501	4934	4269	15540	4748	4581	5245	6565	997	1446	18120	24290	4779	3959	19260	3779	5913	33710	10760	11360	10860	4236	4135	4474	5299	11720	1314	3274	5329	3670	4212	3864	4737	5744	3798	6487	9280	10620	12590	19260	5893	6608	12300	6907	4237	4364	15630	11690	15350	3891	2890	16900	4610	13160	11890	9028	13870	3734	4607	2211	7730	7783	3841	2376	9641	5345	15850	7044	3019	886	25640	13070	4716	4229	4009	18700	18450	21390	18310	14320	5615	6420	4913	6530	3338	6300	4720	919	6902	3462	3336	4893	11450	22910	12360	3938	6920	19850	5257	6727	18820	4407	4100	4361	8043	5297	4065	10540
2021-01-16	2381	3802	6627	6080	6923	8669	9183	3400	20900	25690	14090	3289	16170	6199	5795	6771	10680	20150	77240	5232	14550	7361	4251	19850	3692	19240	5969	37320	9373	4709	22800	6497	12700	24630	4741	22000	4946	8320	5247	8482	13850	11260	4672	12180	5376	8896	7244	7352	12480	9336	11280	3158	7802	16710	17310	4413	3747	3406	5907	9430	2326	3635	11590	2112	30500	17560	2380	6645	26110	6931	5601	9192	3268	14900	2047	17590	8356	6889	20200	24200	2364	3298	3890	7149	5166	3289	14120	7145	6849	5359	4401	2601	6525	26990	11650	4426	4940	4328	4117	3475	6815	2573	3584	11450	6105	5295	2788	9112	4167	19300	6045	9681	3317	10430	3859	18200	6912	6216	16750	3836	7335	5342	5818	24460	5422	7002	3758	21060	4359	4857	19460	5945	6148	5879	7014	13120	7576	3991	5310	15140	10320	25980	14140	20490	7060	48350	27260	4166	19180	4976	5668	40100	15020	11260	3374	1895	42190	5501	23770	2007	2450	13450	1682	2648	5792	8978	16360	3785	4783	5182	19750	6787	31170	1743	4544	6722	4929	4258	6988	2420	8080	9706	3029	4074	14070	13810	5365	24040	6431	4017	18980	7391	8063	10150	7119	10980	10230	8380	29480	6929	4062	7441	3706	8990	2040	17110	5611	4985	4351	15640	4826	4659	5307	6794	1015	1473	18260	24770	4824	4044	19760	3840	6034	33950	11000	11600	11050	4328	4247	4571	5373	11910	1356	3312	5417	3720	4330	3930	4853	5810	3861	6599	9377	10920	12840	19710	6020	6773	12470	7002	4271	4484	15820	11830	15470	3949	2932	17120	4724	13510	12040	9238	13990	3784	4721	2246	7874	8147	3944	2432	9777	5461	16180	7167	3056	892	26140	13230	4791	4322	4092	18810	18830	21860	18630	14590	5694	6551	5032	6643	3407	6500	4801	931	6999	3493	3409	5020	11650	23130	12670	4007	7049	20390	5357	6869	19260	4556	4278	4461	8236	5370	4143	10760

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-09