COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-12

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-31	--	--	--	--	12-07	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-28	10-13	--	12-23	--	10-26	--	12-27	12-25	--	--	--	12-30	--	10-12	11-15	--	12-21	10-29	12-26	12-29	12-27	12-14	12-29	--	--	12-21	--	12-22	--	--	2021-01-01	11-03	12-25	12-29	--	12-05	--	12-19	12-21	12-30	12-25	--	12-29	--	--	--	--	12-29	--	12-29	--	--	--	12-29	12-29	--	--	12-29	12-30	12-29	--	12-21	12-29	--	12-31	10-14	12-29	12-05	--	12-27	12-29	--	12-31	12-29	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-29	--	--	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-27	12-18	12-26	--	12-29	12-29	--	12-18	12-31	--	--	--	--	--	12-30	--	12-29	12-27	2021-01-01	12-29	12-27	2021-01-01	12-27	12-27	--	12-30	12-29	12-29	12-13	12-29	12-14	--	12-21	12-30	12-30	--	12-29	12-29	--	--	12-30	--	12-27	12-30	--	--	12-30	12-21	12-30	--	12-30	--	12-29	--	12-29	12-30	12-29	11-29	--	12-29	12-21	12-21	--	2021-01-01	--	12-21	11-04	12-30	12-21	12-21	--	12-21	--	12-17	12-29	12-31	12-31	12-30	11-04	12-29	12-07	--	10-25	12-29	12-29	11-07	12-27	--	11-03	--	--	12-29	12-28	--	12-30	--	12-29	12-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	12-21	--	--	12-29	--	12-18	--	10-18	12-13	--	12-13	10-17	--	12-29	12-30	12-29	12-30	--	2021-01-01	--	12-29	12-29	--	--	12-25	12-31	--	12-29	--	--	12-21	12-31	12-28	--	--	--	12-29	11-09	--	12-31	12-24	--	12-29	--	12-22	--	12-20	12-30	12-27	12-21	--	--	10-31	12-27	--	--	11-01	--	12-29	--	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-29	10-18	--	12-27	--	--	--	--	12-29	--	12-21	12-12	12-21	--	12-30	12-27	--	12-21	12-26	12-29	2021-01-01	--	12-27	12-18	--	12-28	12-25	12-29	12-28	12-28	12-29	12-25	12-13	12-29	12-03	12-30	12-29	12-27	12-31	--	12-29	12-25	--	12-29	12-27	12-29	12-31	--	--	12-29	--	--	12-31
Peak daily increment	67					169	178	82	485	567	191		315		79		251	423				66		234	49		138	441	228	116	554	152	350			501		186			133	141	96	259		149		175	274	91	258		214					70		265				35	369			208	606	149		187	77		27	249	207	119		575	60		77	156	110	53	225	104			111	58	140	586	268	94		55	97		125	55						178		462	122	257	59	198	61	398	172		345	108	113	131	126	470		156	50	452		128	477			148		272	149			123	194	204		439		400		118	456	74	114		277	197	87		389		416	29	46	293	43		146		353	81	120	67	128	85	734	23		159	109	50	108	62		122			311	153		239		45	134								611			174		185		196	137		94	199		87	62	193	16		171		51	86			130	256		262			97	101	71				87	83		76	109		68		106		294	453	134	150			57	113			194		42		109	316	188	192	177		108					47		122	361	138		11	554		89	110	84	160		442	385		78	134	119	164	65	168	86	20	89	42	66	119	217	237		77	146		108	142	417	120			180			211
Days since peak	12					36	16	16	16	15	91		20		78		16	18				13		92	58		22	75	17	14	16	29	14			22		21			11	70	18	14		38		24	22	13	18		14					14		14				14	14			14	13	14		22	14		12	90	14	38		16	14		12	14	71	17	73	14			14	14	21	16	25	17		14	14		25	12						13		14	16	11	14	16	11	16	16		13	14	14	30	14	29		22	13	13		14	14			13		16	13			13	22	13		13		14		14	13	14	44		14	22	22		11		22	69	13	22	22		22		26	14	12	12	13	69	14	36		79	14	14	66	16		70			14	15		13		14	13								22			14		25		86	30		30	87		14	13	14	13		11		14	14			18	12		14			22	12	15				14	64		12	19		14		21		23	13	16	22			73	16			72		14		16	22	36	14	86		16					14		22	31	22		13	16		22	17	14	11		16	25		15	18	14	15	15	14	18	30	14	40	13	14	16	12		14	18		14	16	14	12			14			12
Last total	2025	3269	6256	5211	6406	7958	8356	2972	18292	22966	13751	3073	14665	5575	5612	6267	9461	18043	71023	5030	13883	7148	4038	19346	3574	16531	5227	36536	8163	4152	20021	5912	10896	23211	4113	19497	4548	7312	5013	7894	13391	10898	4168	10908	4953	8262	6180	6648	11253	9002	10003	2907	6788	15470	15824	4200	3241	3098	5709	7798	2036	3066	9727	1950	28873	16146	2198	5266	23151	6146	5329	8224	2935	13886	1963	17042	7244	6438	18552	21558	2042	3128	3524	6343	5010	3086	13740	6641	5921	4534	3842	2289	5796	23791	10463	3907	4650	4100	3618	3059	6272	2329	3446	10942	5808	4889	2514	8139	3709	16961	5531	8723	3112	9555	3623	16126	6007	5764	15199	3204	6799	4876	5294	22273	4878	6323	3556	18674	4151	4109	17041	5070	5839	5168	4760	11741	6858	3643	4822	14633	9263	25187	12674	18197	6680	46834	26035	3455	16661	4631	5493	36925	13687	10258	2878	1767	40789	5227	21730	1904	2259	12024	1547	2305	5161	8689	14637	3351	4173	4914	19278	6546	27257	1684	4330	6566	4296	4052	6779	2095	7535	9316	2839	3893	12420	13179	4766	23048	5997	3843	18448	6870	7660	9532	6740	10212	9912	7545	26307	6702	3748	6579	3450	8154	1913	16539	5117	4770	3914	15203	4451	4202	5014	5629	946	1373	17593	22689	4632	3649	17597	3571	5420	32939	10035	10550	10248	3969	3730	4032	5065	11077	1227	3185	5014	3517	3875	3583	4340	5582	3545	6100	8951	9605	11517	17372	5370	6033	11750	6579	4135	3886	15184	11365	15009	3660	2748	16185	4190	11885	11323	8202	13526	3558	4181	2090	7261	6452	3503	2198	9198	4895	14470	6530	2931	836	23453	12651	4381	3785	3684	18241	17032	19574	16816	13469	5338	5914	4464	5922	3094	5620	4447	882	6676	3391	3112	4383	10610	22337	11367	3680	6340	18137	4933	6159	17236	3930	3523	4069	7319	5063	3761	9701
Last daily increment	40	54	61	90	93	42	87	30	178	261	84	46	116	71	37	82	153	146	902	55	134	46	34	145	14	279	25	211	56	48	233	36	103	289	52	145	35	50	51	101	87	64	38	99	54	44	102	62	85	86	84	35	71	139	171	54	28	43	49	109	21	57	186	19	200	244	29	63	227	63	37	64	40	201	21	172	106	14	212	323	32	33	36	50	25	32	90	57	57	81	58	19	25	207	68	9	64	38	50	32	40	34	29	83	51	70	37	66	53	175	62	128	40	79	42	171	50	68	177	28	54	51	69	158	37	59	27	209	56	32	137	65	68	64	57	119	58	50	39	93	49	163	200	169	72	375	282	32	195	33	48	517	153	57	11	35	265	87	85	13	35	98	17	29	50	79	164	22	49	43	108	35	266	10	25	22	43	50	36	15	91	37	28	58	173	83	59	172	52	32	84	84	80	104	92	115	84	104	268	67	48	47	35	27	18	81	26	34	44	112	35	24	37	69	10	24	127	287	30	54	237	41	32	175	136	187	135	69	22	50	37	138	22	30	34	39	36	44	43	64	36	58	43	132	101	192	35	51	183	59	21	46	128	87	141	34	20	130	29	86	44	96	109	36	44	53	94	86	35	27	61	48	150	50	52	8	164	104	23	39	32	136	161	186	104	167	39	71	45	61	45	84	44	5	61	31	35	38	120	173	158	39	53	341	60	57	245	76	53	71	79	44	57	128
Last week	255	469	452	756	576	550	813	281	1847	2288	472	276	970	596	265	607	1030	1501	6365	331	838	353	268	907	108	2495	445	1229	787	508	2424	298	1204	1712	500	1553	411	586	323	602	678	402	338	996	401	574	799	618	985	492	930	231	651	1033	1297	326	408	309	379	947	250	437	1327	128	1450	1447	175	659	2569	538	312	688	274	1396	133	875	879	367	1558	2558	220	281	333	534	163	251	568	450	732	676	450	232	482	2104	684	309	388	271	411	305	487	239	223	527	402	419	285	688	390	1861	508	1057	260	848	264	1556	620	474	1545	340	431	415	589	1502	492	575	236	1808	290	399	1776	572	431	615	900	1071	676	332	479	645	603	988	1547	1941	565	2075	1489	386	1858	320	271	3729	1271	693	270	203	1982	532	1344	100	229	1125	149	234	445	485	1359	315	462	331	657	274	2912	85	249	177	464	234	207	214	722	425	193	300	1297	580	709	1178	474	206	598	633	559	817	619	1098	569	934	2181	441	421	653	250	538	197	647	356	314	324	602	420	323	244	696	77	145	869	2279	216	326	2116	283	395	1243	1041	1234	858	438	337	343	309	952	131	218	319	247	397	333	343	481	314	478	397	1122	983	1825	505	476	1189	379	200	450	915	670	816	310	181	893	410	1097	534	672	654	283	394	257	728	985	374	188	660	429	1274	434	314	42	2070	815	363	309	317	770	1483	1811	1441	1145	271	561	380	692	314	767	402	56	408	196	281	445	968	1125	1367	295	560	2243	539	527	1737	549	523	551	689	391	351	932
Previous peak date	--	11-03	11-01	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	11-02	11-03	10-19	10-11	10-25	--	--	10-28	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-27	--	--	11-02	--	10-11	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	10-25	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	11-05	11-02	11-01	11-01	10-19	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	11-02	--	11-02	11-02	11-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	11-01	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	10-29	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	09-27	11-02	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	10-12	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	11-01	10-18	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-05	09-27	11-02	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	11-02	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	11-03	11-02	08-02	--	--	09-30	11-03	11-02	10-20	11-02	--	--	11-02	11-04	10-21	--	--	11-01	11-02	11-01	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-02	11-01	--	10-04	11-03	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	10-29	10-25	10-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-26	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-03	--	--	10-19	10-13	--	10-25	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	05-11	11-01	--	--	11-01	--	11-04	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-28	11-03	--	--	10-20	10-20	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-02	--	10-12	11-01	10-06
Previous peak daily increment		27	84		63							28				77			650	67	170	99	58			139		55					71	334			43		58	75	159				54		44			131		31	34	137	151	61			65				77		293	146	21							182	29		57		269				27			31		77			32						59	75	28				40	133	77				30			71	31	55	44			73							51		43		55			33	65					30		295		360	160		99	541	263					529					611	64								99			36		392				53						97		35	61	68			608	68	40	256	53			88	87	101			103	49	37		42				68			44		67				237	247	85		196	38		438	118		104			25	66	144							24	73		83		78					122	88			186	134		36		171					27	48			95		20						46			140				258	166			142	58		22						91		22			320				147				37		31		68	48	130
Low between peaks																						28						27					21								52									32			16												106										7		18						10			15		37			8							17	13													21	1	23	15												11													61		98				154											136												10		54														6			70		19	58											15		20									14				48		18					119						10	22								11																								2																			68					21		11						19		5			75								9						15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-13 to 2021-01-19

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-12	2025	3269	6256	5211	6406	7958	8356	2972	18292	22966	13751	3073	14665	5575	5612	6267	9461	18043	71023	5030	13883	7148	4038	19346	3574	16531	5227	36536	8163	4152	20021	5912	10896	23211	4113	19497	4548	7312	5013	7894	13391	10898	4168	10908	4953	8262	6180	6648	11253	9002	10003	2907	6788	15470	15824	4200	3241	3098	5709	7798	2036	3066	9727	1950	28873	16146	2198	5266	23151	6146	5329	8224	2935	13886	1963	17042	7244	6438	18552	21558	2042	3128	3524	6343	5010	3086	13740	6641	5921	4534	3842	2289	5796	23791	10463	3907	4650	4100	3618	3059	6272	2329	3446	10942	5808	4889	2514	8139	3709	16961	5531	8723	3112	9555	3623	16126	6007	5764	15199	3204	6799	4876	5294	22273	4878	6323	3556	18674	4151	4109	17041	5070	5839	5168	4760	11741	6858	3643	4822	14633	9263	25187	12674	18197	6680	46834	26035	3455	16661	4631	5493	36925	13687	10258	2878	1767	40789	5227	21730	1904	2259	12024	1547	2305	5161	8689	14637	3351	4173	4914	19278	6546	27257	1684	4330	6566	4296	4052	6779	2095	7535	9316	2839	3893	12420	13179	4766	23048	5997	3843	18448	6870	7660	9532	6740	10212	9912	7545	26307	6702	3748	6579	3450	8154	1913	16539	5117	4770	3914	15203	4451	4202	5014	5629	946	1373	17593	22689	4632	3649	17597	3571	5420	32939	10035	10550	10248	3969	3730	4032	5065	11077	1227	3185	5014	3517	3875	3583	4340	5582	3545	6100	8951	9605	11517	17372	5370	6033	11750	6579	4135	3886	15184	11365	15009	3660	2748	16185	4190	11885	11323	8202	13526	3558	4181	2090	7261	6452	3503	2198	9198	4895	14470	6530	2931	836	23453	12651	4381	3785	3684	18241	17032	19574	16816	13469	5338	5914	4464	5922	3094	5620	4447	882	6676	3391	3112	4383	10610	22337	11367	3680	6340	18137	4933	6159	17236	3930	3523	4069	7319	5063	3761	9701
2021-01-13	2076	3298	6343	5330	6448	8267	8630	3035	18680	23940	13870	3147	15330	5678	5659	6267	9660	18890	71420	5071	13970	7204	4061	19480	3624	16530	5497	36880	8614	4198	20420	5940	11050	23630	4196	20530	4656	7703	5039	8019	13510	11050	4242	11390	5010	8495	6254	6780	11700	9124	10500	3030	7056	15620	15900	4200	3280	3160	5807	7976	2036	3088	9750	2014	29160	16250	2211	5613	23660	6423	5368	8594	2990	13980	1985	17260	7463	6632	18670	21810	2088	3244	3590	6642	5041	3131	13870	6754	6016	4884	3864	2335	6073	24930	11040	4097	4711	4144	3754	3254	6507	2377	3462	10980	5913	4959	2585	8468	3744	17340	5635	9050	3163	9880	3670	16870	6325	5835	15500	3413	6892	5105	5406	23220	4978	6609	3632	19440	4224	4357	17680	5256	5912	5404	4994	12240	6985	3671	4892	14770	9670	25430	12950	18870	6736	47350	26630	3537	17040	4692	5555	37910	13920	10670	2944	1813	41120	5315	22590	1923	2301	12560	1573	2344	5345	8752	15260	3414	4334	4967	19390	6596	27850	1700	4417	6597	4383	4126	6820	2190	7617	9362	2849	3981	12850	13300	4915	23280	6133	3881	18630	6971	7813	9670	6813	10350	10010	7752	27460	6740	3773	6850	3486	8541	1927	16590	5381	4843	4086	15310	4521	4351	5065	5783	961	1392	17780	22760	4677	3756	17600	3589	5696	33020	10110	10910	10250	4119	3790	4115	5121	11240	1231	3221	5161	3580	3929	3649	4525	5590	3603	6133	9023	9710	12090	17750	5477	6145	11990	6652	4181	3972	15240	11470	15200	3689	2815	16250	4278	12470	11650	8331	13670	3562	4371	2159	7272	6794	3530	2236	9440	5119	15160	6806	2989	858	24530	12650	4544	4001	3751	18350	17140	20340	17520	13510	5399	6141	4657	6056	3121	5675	4573	889	6791	3424	3167	4473	10970	22630	11400	3811	6606	18330	5032	6270	17850	4026	3564	4149	7465	5089	3797	9940
2021-01-14	2125	3329	6432	5378	6483	8374	8784	3100	19080	24410	13950	3173	15530	5722	5704	6280	9850	19190	71820	5113	14060	7257	4072	19610	3643	16670	5600	37140	8798	4245	20740	5964	11130	23880	4283	20850	4700	7834	5065	8145	13600	11110	4318	11600	5071	8596	6314	6916	11890	9234	10690	3093	7172	15690	15980	4215	3324	3222	5873	8068	2052	3127	9760	2038	29430	16360	2225	5738	24180	6545	5398	8724	3043	14070	2007	17440	7595	6691	18790	22060	2133	3314	3657	6752	5071	3174	13950	6824	6118	5041	3897	2381	6184	25350	11200	4168	4751	4187	3816	3323	6591	2424	3477	11020	6010	5029	2625	8625	3782	17720	5740	9250	3214	10070	3716	17190	6464	5865	15810	3478	6928	5174	5517	23520	5039	6712	3681	19840	4266	4446	18020	5370	5984	5536	5230	12450	7114	3690	4950	14890	9830	25580	13240	19330	6804	47710	26960	3620	17430	4750	5593	38540	14140	10800	3014	1842	41420	5399	22840	1941	2342	12800	1598	2385	5420	8778	15510	3478	4415	5018	19500	6646	28460	1715	4462	6629	4469	4163	6861	2246	7696	9408	2853	4033	13070	13430	5062	23510	6192	3919	18720	7072	7918	9810	6885	10490	10120	7955	27930	6778	3800	6972	3522	8664	1941	16670	5445	4873	4154	15410	4590	4427	5116	5855	975	1411	17910	22890	4721	3812	17720	3610	5776	33130	10180	11090	10290	4181	3854	4200	5177	11420	1231	3256	5222	3611	3956	3716	4589	5623	3661	6163	9096	9760	12310	18130	5589	6262	12100	6726	4210	4062	15290	11580	15380	3707	2846	16320	4367	12710	11760	8404	13770	3582	4462	2215	7317	7140	3559	2271	9560	5205	15420	6882	3040	866	24940	12690	4615	4061	3821	18470	17260	20720	17820	13590	5460	6263	4722	6192	3148	5742	4641	896	6840	3457	3222	4564	11170	22770	11450	3882	6718	18450	5129	6384	18150	4121	3610	4227	7614	5113	3832	10100
2021-01-15	2173	3363	6522	5378	6495	8439	8904	3164	19480	24770	14010	3183	15650	5758	5749	6301	10040	19410	72230	5156	14140	7310	4088	19720	3658	16730	5682	37340	8946	4295	20910	5983	11150	24050	4371	21070	4757	7901	5091	8273	13690	11170	4393	11750	5131	8698	6343	7052	12000	9341	10860	3136	7251	15700	16070	4234	3369	3283	5919	8132	2059	3132	9830	2056	29710	16470	2239	5851	24700	6621	5412	8824	3096	14170	2028	17590	7706	6747	18900	22210	2178	3362	3722	6849	5101	3217	14020	6878	6224	5153	3898	2425	6282	25680	11280	4229	4789	4229	3877	3380	6643	2471	3493	11050	6106	5099	2644	8732	3820	18110	5843	9400	3265	10180	3763	17430	6572	5865	16110	3534	6947	5230	5627	23730	5089	6787	3718	20150	4300	4511	18290	5439	6057	5641	5468	12610	7242	3699	4982	15000	9910	25690	13530	19620	6848	48020	27220	3700	17810	4808	5634	39100	14360	10900	3083	1862	41660	5484	23010	1960	2382	12960	1623	2425	5486	8783	15750	3540	4479	5069	19610	6699	29060	1731	4501	6660	4554	4194	6902	2277	7777	9455	2859	4067	13230	13550	5210	23740	6262	3956	18810	7175	7951	9940	6958	10620	10220	8162	28260	6814	3827	7096	3559	8745	1956	16710	5492	4907	4204	15510	4659	4475	5166	5894	990	1430	18030	22910	4766	3858	17890	3632	5824	33210	10250	11280	10310	4228	3916	4284	5231	11590	1236	3291	5272	3646	3966	3782	4647	5633	3719	6193	9168	9780	12450	18510	5698	6377	12180	6799	4236	4152	15350	11690	15560	3714	2875	16390	4456	12900	11810	8420	13850	3583	4528	2251	7345	7484	3586	2307	9640	5272	15590	6938	3077	872	25270	12710	4662	4115	3889	18580	17380	21000	18050	13610	5520	6345	4783	6326	3177	5775	4695	904	6892	3489	3277	4652	11320	22910	11470	3917	6814	18500	5226	6497	18390	4216	3661	4297	7760	5138	3867	10230
2021-01-16	2221	3396	6613	5410	6515	8526	9025	3229	19890	25150	14080	3191	15820	5774	5793	6326	10230	19680	72620	5198	14220	7361	4090	19860	3673	16830	5766	37600	9074	4344	21210	6000	11190	24220	4461	21360	4814	8008	5117	8402	13790	11230	4470	11930	5193	8780	6343	7191	12180	9445	11020	3184	7369	15700	16160	4263	3416	3345	5976	8217	2069	3148	9900	2075	29970	16570	2252	5982	25230	6706	5426	8939	3147	14270	2049	17770	7831	6813	19020	22450	2221	3426	3788	6942	5131	3259	14130	6954	6331	5290	3930	2469	6355	26080	11400	4293	4829	4270	3957	3423	6719	2517	3508	11080	6199	5169	2679	8861	3858	18500	5948	9580	3315	10320	3809	17720	6683	5876	16420	3603	6994	5292	5736	24000	5121	6896	3762	20450	4341	4595	18620	5492	6129	5755	5714	12800	7371	3699	5030	15090	10030	25830	13830	19930	6904	48370	27470	3781	18210	4865	5665	39670	14580	11020	3155	1881	41900	5566	23260	1978	2423	13160	1648	2466	5566	8783	15970	3603	4549	5120	19720	6751	29680	1746	4538	6691	4639	4230	6943	2309	7855	9501	2864	4109	13430	13670	5358	23960	6332	3993	18900	7277	8049	10070	7030	10760	10320	8370	28680	6848	3854	7227	3595	8863	1971	16780	5563	4951	4257	15610	4726	4531	5216	5960	1003	1450	18170	22970	4810	3915	17930	3654	5899	33330	10320	11460	10360	4293	3981	4369	5285	11770	1250	3325	5321	3692	4004	3849	4716	5655	3777	6224	9242	9780	12600	18900	5810	6495	12240	6873	4262	4244	15400	11800	15730	3725	2905	16450	4546	13110	11900	8488	13940	3585	4593	2283	7415	7837	3613	2341	9740	5336	15810	7016	3107	874	25650	12730	4710	4175	3958	18660	17500	21300	18310	13650	5581	6435	4866	6462	3204	5851	4764	911	6965	3521	3332	4742	11480	23100	11520	3961	6909	18590	5322	6612	18670	4312	3712	4360	7908	5161	3900	10390
2021-01-17	2270	3430	6706	5410	6526	8632	9150	3294	20300	25550	14140	3201	16010	5804	5838	6333	10420	19960	73010	5241	14310	7412	4098	19980	3686	16980	5835	37810	9207	4394	21520	6016	11280	24390	4553	21650	4870	8125	5143	8533	13900	11270	4548	12110	5256	8866	6369	7330	12350	9549	11200	3226	7546	15750	16250	4265	3463	3408	6011	8284	2091	3152	9940	2094	30250	16680	2266	6095	25760	6802	5449	9066	3200	14370	2070	17900	7954	6874	19130	22740	2266	3470	3854	7031	5161	3301	14200	7041	6441	5430	3970	2514	6437	26460	11530	4349	4868	4311	4028	3464	6804	2563	3524	11120	6293	5239	2706	8971	3896	18890	6053	9780	3366	10460	3855	17990	6786	5893	16730	3666	7039	5354	5847	24280	5149	7004	3798	20760	4369	4669	19030	5561	6202	5854	5973	12980	7502	3699	5057	15150	10140	26000	14140	20190	6945	48690	27710	3863	18610	4922	5703	40240	14800	11150	3228	1907	42200	5649	23520	1996	2463	13350	1673	2507	5621	8783	16180	3667	4645	5170	19830	6803	30300	1761	4572	6722	4725	4266	6983	2339	7935	9547	2872	4149	13650	13790	5511	24190	6382	4030	19010	7382	8114	10210	7103	10890	10420	8583	29080	6883	3881	7330	3633	8959	1986	16840	5628	5002	4297	15710	4795	4584	5266	6041	1017	1469	18300	23010	4854	3979	18080	3676	5972	33440	10390	11670	10370	4344	4045	4455	5340	11950	1252	3360	5379	3711	4004	3915	4766	5688	3835	6255	9315	9830	12760	19290	5923	6615	12400	6948	4290	4337	15460	11900	15910	3730	2935	16520	4637	13310	11990	8552	14040	3596	4666	2341	7439	8200	3641	2376	9810	5418	16020	7103	3133	880	26000	12750	4770	4235	4028	18800	17630	21610	18540	13700	5642	6524	4930	6599	3231	5917	4823	918	7042	3552	3387	4832	11620	23280	11590	4013	7002	18670	5419	6729	18970	4408	3763	4431	8057	5185	3933	10530
2021-01-18	2319	3464	6800	5434	6583	8744	9351	3361	20710	26010	14260	3226	16210	5898	5882	6407	10620	20260	73400	5284	14390	7463	4135	20170	3706	17230	5928	38100	9391	4445	21830	6032	11390	24640	4648	21990	4931	8263	5169	8666	14030	11350	4626	12300	5319	8984	6458	7471	12580	9652	11380	3286	7689	15860	16340	4287	3511	3470	6065	8410	2122	3204	10110	2127	30520	16790	2279	6215	26300	6934	5493	9220	3252	14460	2091	18090	8105	6949	19250	22980	2310	3552	3921	7164	5191	3343	14330	7151	6553	5648	4010	2559	6535	26960	11660	4404	4916	4352	4101	3515	6936	2610	3539	11150	6387	5311	2745	9090	3935	19290	6159	10000	3417	10630	3901	18300	6941	5947	17040	3730	7094	5450	5959	24560	5235	7131	3852	21090	4426	4753	19350	5692	6276	5999	6243	13220	7634	3730	5141	15270	10250	26190	14460	20590	7026	49160	28020	3946	19010	4979	5765	40930	15020	11300	3302	1941	42570	5733	23810	2015	2504	13590	1698	2550	5711	8827	16450	3731	4739	5220	19940	6855	30930	1776	4629	6753	4812	4310	7024	2399	8016	9594	2891	4210	13900	13920	5667	24410	6463	4067	19140	7488	8209	10340	7177	11030	10530	8801	29480	6918	3909	7458	3670	9037	2001	16940	5706	5043	4361	15810	4864	4650	5316	6129	1031	1489	18450	23150	4898	4047	18250	3698	6069	33550	10460	11910	10450	4440	4111	4542	5394	12130	1262	3395	5452	3747	4021	3983	4853	5731	3894	6286	9389	9950	12960	19690	6038	6735	12580	7024	4354	4431	15510	12010	16090	3749	2975	16590	4729	13570	12120	8622	14170	3619	4744	2397	7488	8575	3669	2411	9910	5500	16290	7191	3201	891	26450	12810	4852	4316	4099	18950	17750	22000	18830	13810	5703	6631	5015	6737	3259	6006	4916	925	7120	3584	3443	4923	11800	23490	11700	4080	7119	18860	5516	6847	19310	4506	3816	4566	8208	5209	3965	10710
2021-01-19	2369	3498	6895	5598	6684	8826	9483	3428	21130	26430	14340	3282	16420	6035	5927	6514	10810	20550	73800	5327	14480	7514	4187	20320	3727	17630	6015	38300	9525	4497	22170	6048	11560	25020	4744	22300	4986	8381	5195	8801	14130	11420	4705	12470	5384	9078	6624	7614	12760	9757	11540	3341	7796	16080	16430	4342	3559	3534	6115	8569	2154	3293	10360	2156	30790	16900	2293	6337	26850	7036	5539	9349	3305	14560	2112	18230	8245	7002	19360	23380	2355	3589	3988	7263	5221	3386	14430	7212	6667	5830	4089	2604	6616	27340	11810	4450	4991	4394	4173	3597	7018	2657	3555	11180	6482	5383	2809	9216	3974	19690	6267	10170	3469	10770	3948	18580	7048	6041	17350	3789	7165	5541	6071	24840	5311	7239	3884	21420	4492	4820	19600	5818	6352	6094	6526	13410	7766	3797	5207	15370	10360	26370	14780	20880	7137	49530	28330	4030	19410	5037	5815	41540	15240	11410	3376	1987	42870	5818	24040	2034	2545	13770	1723	2593	5793	8938	16710	3796	4811	5271	20050	6908	31570	1791	4667	6784	4900	4364	7065	2439	8098	9641	2929	4277	14130	14040	5827	24640	6542	4105	19230	7595	8314	10480	7252	11170	10630	9026	29890	6953	3936	7556	3708	9129	2016	17020	5767	5087	4430	15910	4933	4706	5367	6237	1045	1508	18590	23510	4943	4107	18510	3721	6145	33740	10530	12130	10620	4534	4177	4629	5449	12310	1284	3430	5504	3794	4070	4051	4932	5791	3953	6318	9463	10190	13140	20090	6154	6856	12810	7100	4374	4526	15570	12120	16260	3808	3009	16650	4821	13750	12220	8752	14290	3666	4827	2442	7605	8963	3698	2446	10010	5589	16540	7280	3256	902	26800	12940	4912	4389	4170	19090	17870	22300	19060	14020	5765	6741	5092	6877	3287	6120	4978	933	7194	3616	3499	5014	11970	23690	11930	4145	7221	19310	5615	6966	19590	4605	3870	4652	8361	5232	3998	10860

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-13 to 2021-01-19

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-12	2025	3269	6256	5211	6406	7958	8356	2972	18292	22966	13751	3073	14665	5575	5612	6267	9461	18043	71023	5030	13883	7148	4038	19346	3574	16531	5227	36536	8163	4152	20021	5912	10896	23211	4113	19497	4548	7312	5013	7894	13391	10898	4168	10908	4953	8262	6180	6648	11253	9002	10003	2907	6788	15470	15824	4200	3241	3098	5709	7798	2036	3066	9727	1950	28873	16146	2198	5266	23151	6146	5329	8224	2935	13886	1963	17042	7244	6438	18552	21558	2042	3128	3524	6343	5010	3086	13740	6641	5921	4534	3842	2289	5796	23791	10463	3907	4650	4100	3618	3059	6272	2329	3446	10942	5808	4889	2514	8139	3709	16961	5531	8723	3112	9555	3623	16126	6007	5764	15199	3204	6799	4876	5294	22273	4878	6323	3556	18674	4151	4109	17041	5070	5839	5168	4760	11741	6858	3643	4822	14633	9263	25187	12674	18197	6680	46834	26035	3455	16661	4631	5493	36925	13687	10258	2878	1767	40789	5227	21730	1904	2259	12024	1547	2305	5161	8689	14637	3351	4173	4914	19278	6546	27257	1684	4330	6566	4296	4052	6779	2095	7535	9316	2839	3893	12420	13179	4766	23048	5997	3843	18448	6870	7660	9532	6740	10212	9912	7545	26307	6702	3748	6579	3450	8154	1913	16539	5117	4770	3914	15203	4451	4202	5014	5629	946	1373	17593	22689	4632	3649	17597	3571	5420	32939	10035	10550	10248	3969	3730	4032	5065	11077	1227	3185	5014	3517	3875	3583	4340	5582	3545	6100	8951	9605	11517	17372	5370	6033	11750	6579	4135	3886	15184	11365	15009	3660	2748	16185	4190	11885	11323	8202	13526	3558	4181	2090	7261	6452	3503	2198	9198	4895	14470	6530	2931	836	23453	12651	4381	3785	3684	18241	17032	19574	16816	13469	5338	5914	4464	5922	3094	5620	4447	882	6676	3391	3112	4383	10610	22337	11367	3680	6340	18137	4933	6159	17236	3930	3523	4069	7319	5063	3761	9701
2021-01-13	2067	3369	6351	5377	6489	8062	8521	3028	18660	23420	13850	3125	14860	5685	5658	6374	9650	18320	72070	5094	14040	7209	4080	19490	3597	16880	5315	36780	8325	4225	20410	5930	11080	23550	4201	19810	4625	7425	5066	8015	13500	10990	4226	11110	5018	8376	6328	6730	11440	9085	10180	2968	6902	15670	16040	4249	3311	3152	5776	7955	2072	3147	9940	1977	29140	16420	2236	5395	23550	6281	5382	8369	2980	14150	1985	17200	7391	6513	18850	22020	2085	3186	3588	6436	5038	3132	13840	6726	6049	4694	3881	2328	5887	24230	10600	3973	4713	4146	3685	3142	6385	2379	3483	11040	5874	4966	2565	8269	3789	17280	5614	8930	3162	9710	3668	16440	6136	5864	15480	3272	6868	4953	5408	22590	4992	6437	3606	19090	4203	4193	17360	5167	5915	5309	5010	11970	6967	3706	4893	14740	9390	25370	12920	18610	6786	47170	26370	3524	17040	4692	5540	37600	13950	10420	2924	1805	41130	5323	22010	1920	2300	12250	1577	2355	5252	8798	14880	3401	4262	4963	19390	6600	27820	1699	4379	6599	4375	4097	6812	2139	7649	9390	2872	3947	12660	13280	4880	23250	6096	3879	18560	6990	7747	9670	6846	10390	10010	7699	26750	6786	3802	6701	3495	8249	1954	16650	5176	4828	3965	15310	4518	4265	5058	5728	962	1401	17770	23100	4666	3709	17970	3630	5492	33120	10230	10780	10410	4055	3795	4094	5118	11260	1248	3222	5083	3560	3951	3646	4399	5655	3610	6175	9041	9810	11700	17650	5445	6119	11970	6655	4174	3961	15330	11480	15170	3717	2784	16350	4272	12140	11440	8294	13660	3606	4261	2134	7386	6669	3565	2234	9320	4966	14730	6599	2987	849	23930	12770	4448	3844	3741	18360	17280	19980	17100	13670	5384	6016	4551	6033	3147	5744	4505	889	6753	3424	3149	4456	10810	22540	11590	3742	6452	18590	5022	6236	17550	4031	3620	4163	7444	5124	3823	9870
2021-01-14	2117	3463	6437	5527	6576	8177	8677	3099	19070	23900	13930	3173	15080	5786	5704	6459	9840	18620	73200	5152	14190	7265	4117	19640	3619	17330	5424	36970	8503	4318	20900	5979	11340	23850	4310	20150	4681	7562	5130	8141	13610	11060	4305	11330	5097	8486	6487	6827	11640	9165	10380	3023	7021	15890	16280	4299	3396	3212	5836	8176	2123	3235	10200	2003	29410	16700	2271	5548	24070	6406	5442	8519	3032	14390	2006	17340	7580	6590	19140	22520	2132	3234	3660	6549	5069	3174	13930	6802	6213	4821	3967	2375	5998	24710	10750	4044	4778	4192	3766	3217	6476	2422	3514	11140	5946	5047	2625	8428	3860	17690	5713	9160	3216	9890	3717	16770	6285	5969	15770	3353	6951	5026	5519	22890	5088	6545	3651	19490	4252	4281	17740	5295	5998	5440	5235	12200	7105	3773	4981	14850	9540	25540	13250	19070	6878	47500	26640	3614	17460	4755	5579	38280	14180	10550	2992	1841	41470	5413	22260	1939	2344	12490	1605	2413	5348	8900	15150	3469	4368	5014	19510	6655	28450	1714	4426	6632	4467	4139	6852	2191	7772	9467	2903	3998	12940	13410	5009	23470	6172	3918	18670	7102	7849	9800	6951	10580	10100	7879	27260	6871	3879	6817	3543	8367	1993	16770	5245	4877	4032	15400	4596	4341	5112	5874	976	1427	17920	23490	4705	3769	18380	3686	5575	33340	10440	11000	10540	4134	3867	4169	5177	11430	1265	3259	5141	3600	4030	3716	4457	5725	3671	6253	9127	10010	11900	18050	5557	6218	12170	6734	4205	4060	15480	11590	15310	3772	2815	16530	4348	12380	11560	8447	13780	3659	4353	2178	7504	6910	3641	2271	9440	5051	14990	6682	3032	858	24320	12890	4518	3909	3798	18470	17540	20360	17410	13870	5443	6135	4630	6168	3205	5892	4572	898	6806	3455	3201	4543	11010	22700	11830	3811	6571	19010	5117	6347	17900	4139	3744	4260	7599	5189	3889	10050
2021-01-15	2164	3556	6524	5648	6652	8273	8814	3168	19430	24200	14010	3218	15260	5883	5750	6549	10040	18890	74330	5208	14320	7321	4166	19780	3638	17750	5527	37150	8645	4419	21300	6025	11520	24120	4418	20440	4752	7674	5176	8257	13720	11130	4382	11510	5174	8598	6645	6928	11820	9230	10570	3061	7094	16060	16530	4350	3471	3269	5888	8389	2180	3320	10450	2029	29610	16980	2303	5680	24530	6511	5495	8661	3083	14640	2028	17460	7764	6666	19410	22910	2180	3276	3710	6645	5101	3210	14020	6873	6381	4927	4038	2422	6103	25150	10870	4111	4833	4238	3848	3284	6549	2466	3544	11230	6013	5130	2681	8572	3937	18100	5809	9380	3271	10050	3760	17060	6428	6004	16030	3430	7030	5096	5624	23110	5179	6642	3691	19870	4300	4345	18100	5403	6082	5549	5483	12420	7237	3835	5053	14960	9680	25670	13530	19380	6962	47800	26890	3705	17860	4817	5622	38950	14390	10650	3058	1874	41790	5504	22440	1958	2388	12710	1634	2472	5441	8975	15420	3537	4468	5071	19630	6709	28980	1729	4470	6664	4558	4179	6890	2220	7896	9534	2933	4036	13190	13520	5141	23680	6249	3957	18770	7207	7922	9920	7052	10770	10190	8055	27710	6959	3959	6932	3593	8442	2029	16850	5308	4931	4083	15500	4674	4411	5164	5995	990	1452	18050	23810	4742	3824	18760	3735	5645	33540	10660	11230	10680	4206	3939	4228	5228	11620	1288	3296	5192	3646	4088	3779	4512	5787	3731	6324	9211	10170	12070	18390	5663	6316	12340	6817	4234	4160	15630	11710	15440	3822	2846	16720	4419	12610	11640	8561	13880	3697	4441	2213	7618	7177	3718	2305	9550	5127	15170	6757	3072	866	24630	13010	4579	3964	3850	18570	17800	20670	17630	14050	5499	6231	4712	6274	3262	6026	4633	906	6857	3485	3252	4624	11150	22850	12060	3844	6673	19370	5199	6442	18210	4257	3866	4352	7757	5256	3953	10230
2021-01-16	2218	3658	6613	5781	6738	8376	8959	3237	19840	24590	14090	3260	15470	5972	5796	6662	10250	19170	75500	5264	14450	7377	4205	19930	3657	18210	5624	37360	8785	4523	21780	6073	11710	24400	4523	20780	4830	7801	5225	8374	13830	11210	4465	11710	5252	8697	6806	7050	12030	9309	10760	3108	7180	16260	16780	4403	3549	3329	5950	8607	2232	3408	10730	2055	29840	17270	2338	5832	25030	6626	5546	8809	3135	14890	2049	17590	7954	6746	19720	23370	2228	3321	3776	6754	5133	3252	14110	6951	6560	5036	4119	2470	6202	25630	11000	4181	4901	4284	3941	3340	6636	2508	3573	11330	6079	5215	2743	8725	4006	18520	5909	9600	3327	10220	3805	17370	6575	6094	16310	3510	7119	5165	5734	23380	5259	6756	3735	20270	4348	4429	18470	5516	6167	5665	5739	12650	7371	3895	5130	15060	9820	25820	13850	19730	7042	48120	27150	3799	18290	4884	5658	39630	14640	10770	3130	1905	42100	5595	22690	1977	2432	12950	1660	2533	5543	9042	15680	3607	4572	5114	19740	6762	29560	1744	4516	6695	4657	4221	6928	2256	8024	9601	2964	4080	13470	13640	5267	23900	6336	3997	18880	7316	8015	10050	7156	10970	10280	8218	28210	7039	4035	7049	3642	8557	2065	16940	5380	4985	4135	15590	4753	4482	5218	6146	1005	1476	18200	24180	4777	3883	19150	3793	5727	33760	10880	11460	10830	4288	4016	4299	5284	11800	1315	3334	5244	3696	4159	3846	4581	5853	3794	6411	9299	10360	12240	18750	5777	6425	12530	6905	4264	4262	15780	11830	15570	3875	2878	16900	4506	12860	11750	8706	13980	3740	4529	2247	7753	7444	3796	2345	9650	5203	15400	6843	3113	872	25030	13130	4638	4030	3912	18670	18070	21000	17900	14260	5557	6334	4802	6393	3320	6181	4703	914	6930	3516	3304	4698	11310	23020	12320	3891	6781	19800	5292	6539	18520	4363	3997	4442	7916	5322	4019	10410
2021-01-17	2270	3757	6703	5921	6813	8494	9107	3304	20250	25050	14170	3299	15710	6060	5841	6756	10440	19500	76650	5322	14590	7434	4241	20070	3675	18690	5718	37530	8952	4618	22260	6148	11990	24680	4638	21150	4901	7945	5272	8496	13960	11280	4547	11940	5333	8802	6971	7190	12230	9391	10950	3141	7362	16450	17030	4453	3625	3390	5996	8825	2273	3502	11010	2080	30140	17570	2371	6018	25560	6747	5607	8961	3196	15150	2070	17710	8154	6823	20030	23890	2277	3362	3837	6875	5164	3299	14200	7038	6722	5187	4202	2519	6303	26110	11170	4262	4976	4330	4032	3394	6732	2553	3599	11430	6149	5299	2807	8872	4081	18950	6022	9840	3384	10390	3864	17690	6723	6178	16620	3597	7216	5244	5847	23710	5331	6880	3775	20680	4392	4528	18890	5648	6252	5776	5971	12890	7507	3953	5223	15160	9960	26000	14160	20050	7104	48450	27380	3895	18730	4946	5700	40330	14860	10910	3213	1942	42470	5688	23010	1995	2477	13180	1684	2595	5633	9107	15940	3677	4693	5157	19860	6814	30220	1759	4559	6728	4748	4263	6971	2298	8152	9675	2994	4127	13770	13750	5389	24110	6410	4036	19000	7415	8093	10160	7252	11160	10370	8394	28690	7117	4103	7184	3693	8676	2107	17040	5464	5040	4176	15690	4833	4555	5271	6334	1021	1499	18350	24520	4818	3952	19590	3851	5821	33960	11100	11700	10950	4363	4096	4395	5336	11990	1334	3372	5315	3735	4217	3922	4658	5923	3860	6488	9388	10580	12440	19130	5903	6535	12720	6985	4297	4366	15930	11940	15700	3916	2915	17080	4610	13100	11860	8896	14100	3786	4621	2287	7868	7685	3876	2383	9770	5297	15640	6952	3149	879	25430	13230	4708	4124	3980	18790	18340	21350	18160	14480	5626	6440	4881	6505	3380	6333	4772	923	7014	3547	3365	4794	11470	23220	12580	3960	6915	20200	5395	6652	18860	4481	4132	4543	8079	5385	4079	10590
2021-01-18	2337	3866	6796	6127	6920	8649	9304	3382	20740	25630	14260	3350	15990	6214	5891	6880	10650	19910	77870	5382	14770	7491	4302	20240	3701	19310	5839	37760	9184	4735	22870	6236	12440	25020	4747	21590	4976	8125	5339	8625	14100	11350	4634	12190	5425	8941	7110	7362	12480	9483	11180	3200	7556	16650	17270	4507	3730	3457	6041	9127	2337	3607	11360	2115	30510	17870	2411	6281	26200	6881	5668	9143	3271	15410	2093	17860	8382	6916	20330	24460	2329	3412	3932	7034	5198	3349	14300	7137	6922	5397	4333	2570	6428	26690	11370	4345	5053	4378	4133	3469	6878	2628	3632	11540	6227	5389	2862	9037	4178	19380	6131	10100	3441	10590	3913	18090	6887	6252	16960	3726	7310	5353	5967	24160	5436	7027	3827	21100	4455	4667	19360	5820	6339	5958	6241	13160	7652	4017	5345	15280	10130	26230	14500	20530	7179	48950	27640	3994	19170	5010	5760	41080	15100	11140	3289	1981	42880	5783	23450	2015	2523	13440	1710	2660	5743	9210	16270	3750	4828	5218	19980	6872	31030	1774	4609	6763	4844	4307	7020	2377	8297	9744	3027	4189	14110	13900	5526	24340	6503	4076	19130	7547	8201	10320	7354	11380	10460	8606	29260	7185	4185	7354	3745	8817	2157	17190	5570	5096	4276	15810	4915	4643	5337	6517	1037	1524	18510	24920	4878	4021	20080	3919	5940	34200	11330	11970	11110	4466	4175	4522	5407	12180	1360	3410	5406	3786	4292	3998	4779	5990	3928	6576	9479	10860	12710	19620	6026	6669	13020	7075	4352	4474	16090	12050	15850	3966	2958	17270	4735	13380	12020	9094	14230	3841	4717	2340	7983	8065	3958	2427	9900	5400	16010	7089	3192	892	26010	13330	4804	4238	4071	18950	18620	21840	18540	14730	5690	6566	4981	6705	3442	6512	4876	931	7108	3579	3442	4922	11690	23460	12880	4043	7038	20720	5505	6820	19330	4633	4265	4672	8244	5457	4147	10850
2021-01-19	2413	3974	6887	6316	7047	8799	9487	3461	21320	26330	14350	3419	16320	6427	5940	7043	10870	20370	79240	5441	14950	7549	4378	20410	3728	20040	5976	37960	9439	4874	23470	6331	12900	25520	4887	22090	5080	8316	5397	8761	14230	11440	4744	12460	5526	9084	7329	7549	12740	9564	11430	3277	7757	16930	17540	4565	3834	3523	6100	9418	2397	3724	11760	2152	30860	18190	2449	6584	26890	7030	5741	9338	3340	15680	2118	18000	8617	7011	20650	25180	2381	3459	4021	7216	5232	3403	14400	7238	7160	5674	4478	2621	6562	27300	11600	4425	5145	4426	4244	3600	7031	2695	3662	11660	6302	5499	2947	9227	4283	19830	6239	10350	3500	10800	3963	18510	7063	6414	17290	3842	7426	5465	6084	24660	5562	7178	3871	21530	4522	4822	19810	5994	6428	6113	6534	13450	7808	4094	5468	15390	10320	26470	14960	21040	7278	49390	27940	4095	19640	5077	5812	41870	15350	11370	3369	2026	43280	5879	23920	2034	2570	13720	1740	2726	5863	9358	16620	3824	4962	5282	20100	6931	31900	1789	4657	6802	4946	4358	7063	2452	8437	9830	3063	4251	14450	14050	5663	24590	6619	4117	19250	7668	8337	10500	7464	11600	10570	8818	29880	7281	4287	7546	3797	8985	2197	17330	5674	5164	4387	15950	4998	4726	5396	6762	1053	1549	18700	25490	4928	4091	20640	3991	6063	34450	11570	12240	11300	4573	4257	4661	5480	12370	1389	3449	5494	3846	4396	4074	4901	6065	3995	6696	9571	11270	12990	20180	6153	6814	13340	7167	4383	4583	16260	12200	16000	4057	3011	17460	4859	13690	12180	9296	14360	3902	4829	2396	8146	8435	4042	2477	10050	5521	16410	7226	3239	904	26650	13460	4902	4339	4158	19110	18910	22350	18950	15030	5754	6706	5090	6906	3511	6701	4965	940	7207	3610	3516	5067	11970	23680	13230	4121	7182	21460	5617	6972	19820	4790	4446	4786	8413	5536	4219	11080

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-12