COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-15

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	2021-01-01	2021-01-02	2021-01-04	2021-01-01	12-07	12-25	12-27	12-27	12-21	10-13	2021-01-03	12-18	--	10-26	--	12-27	12-18	2021-01-03	12-27	--	10-11	--	10-12	11-15	--	12-21	2021-01-04	12-26	2021-01-03	12-27	12-10	2021-01-01	2021-01-03	2021-01-01	12-21	--	12-22	--	2021-01-03	2021-01-03	2021-01-02	12-25	12-27	--	12-08	2021-01-01	12-19	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	2021-01-02	12-25	12-25	12-31	--	2021-01-01	12-21	2021-01-04	2021-01-01	--	2021-01-01	2021-01-01	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	2021-01-02	2021-01-01	12-28	12-26	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	--	2021-01-04	10-14	--	12-07	2021-01-01	12-27	12-25	--	12-31	12-21	11-02	2021-01-03	10-31	--	--	2021-01-01	12-21	12-27	12-19	12-25	12-18	12-25	--	12-29	2021-01-01	--	12-18	2021-01-03	--	2021-01-02	2021-01-03	2021-01-01	--	12-22	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	2021-01-01	2021-01-01	12-22	2021-01-01	12-21	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-22	2021-01-01	12-10	12-28	12-14	2021-01-02	12-21	--	12-28	--	2021-01-03	12-25	2021-01-01	--	2021-01-01	2021-01-01	12-27	12-29	--	--	10-28	12-21	2021-01-01	12-27	12-28	--	2021-01-04	--	12-27	12-28	2021-01-03	11-29	2021-01-04	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	09-22	--	12-08	11-04	--	12-21	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	2021-01-01	12-17	12-26	2021-01-01	--	09-26	11-04	12-28	12-07	2021-01-03	10-25	2021-01-03	10-29	11-04	12-27	--	2021-01-03	--	--	2021-01-01	12-21	--	2021-01-04	2021-01-01	12-27	2021-01-04	--	--	--	--	2021-01-04	--	2021-01-04	12-21	2021-01-01	--	12-21	2021-01-01	12-18	2021-01-03	2021-01-02	12-08	2021-01-02	12-10	10-17	2021-01-03	12-27	12-28	2021-01-03	2021-01-03	2021-01-01	2021-01-03	2021-01-03	11-01	12-21	2021-01-03	2021-01-03	12-21	12-31	--	2021-01-01	--	--	12-21	12-21	12-28	2021-01-01	--	--	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-24	--	2021-01-01	--	12-22	2021-01-01	12-19	12-28	12-27	12-21	2021-01-03	--	10-31	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-01	11-01	2021-01-01	12-28	2021-01-01	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	2021-01-04	--	12-23	--	--	12-27	12-21	12-27	2021-01-01	12-21	12-12	12-21	2021-01-03	12-28	12-26	2021-01-02	12-21	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	--	12-21	12-18	2021-01-01	12-28	12-21	12-22	12-28	--	2021-01-01	12-20	12-13	2021-01-01	12-07	12-28	2021-01-02	12-28	2021-01-01	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	2021-01-03	12-29	12-27	2021-01-01	--	2021-01-01	--	12-28	2021-01-02	--	2021-01-01
Peak daily increment	61	102	97	172	116	174	176	77	470	553	191	62	310		77		235	419	1343	69		99		235	49		136	260	223	127	528	151	323	344	113	497		184		134	128	95	92	253		150	190	173	307	108	255	56	188	239	285		94	68	69	242		107	315	34	353	311	41	190	593	144	78	186	71		26	249		123	345	552	55		76	154	110	52	225			157	103	53	139	577	265	92		52	92		124	53		115	81	89		176	95	440	118	246	57	195	55	394	168	112	337	96	105	133	120	466	107	155		441		115	447	143		144	272	268	145			295	192	198	332	428		394		106	442	72	114	827	271	195	86	42	611		417	29		292	47	61	144	124	352	77	114		391	85	699	24	55	159	104	49	108	58		84			298	149		248	92	43	130					208		181	606	96		166	54	184	42	135	139	61	93	199	81	84	59	174	16	26	171	491	85	78	463	70	128	245		252			104	97	68	197			82	83	95	75	104		66		110	248	290	441	130	149	256		57	107	191	136	194	69	41	206	105	326	195	175	133		104			313	85	43	137	122	359	135	60	11	545	172	89	104	80	143		438	382	243	74	134	111	156		161	85	23	89	43	63	111	216	233	296	77	143	477	105	135	407		126		169	75		201
Days since peak	18	14	13	11	14	39	21	19	19	25	94	12	28		81		19	28	12	19		96		95	61		25	11	20	12	19	36	14	12	14	25		24		12	12	13	21	19		38	14	27	25	11	24	13	21	21	15		14	25	11	14		14	14	21	25	14	13	14	18	20	12	25	25		11	93		39	14	19	21		15	25	74	12	76			14	25	19	27	21	28	21		17	14		28	12		13	12	14		24	14	18	19	14	14	24	14	25	19	14	18	24	14	36	18	32	13	25		18		12	21	14		14	14	19	17			79	25	14	19	18		11		19	18	12	47	11	12	25	25	11	115		38	72		25	25	12	25	14	29	20	14		111	72	18	39	12	82	12	78	72	19		12			14	25		11	14	19	11					11		11	25	14		25	14	28	12	13	38	13	36	90	12	19	18	12	12	14	12	12	75	25	12	12	25	15		14			25	25	18	14			24	67	22	25	22		14		24	14	27	18	19	25	12		76	19	12	14	75	14	18	14	19	25	39	21	11		23			19	25	19	14	25	34	25	12	18	20	13	25	20	25	14		25	28	14	18	25	24	18		14	26	33	14	39	18	13	18	14	11	25	25	12	17	19	14		14		18	13		14
Last total	2191	3479	6501	5669	6691	8307	8808	3168	19297	24286	13992	3220	15165	6085	5722	6575	10033	18830	75180	5232	14313	7352	4234	19839	3628	18143	5518	37130	8596	4547	21626	6063	11630	24106	4450	20393	4844	7654	5220	8206	13712	11083	4378	11546	5250	8568	6599	7022	11934	9289	10557	3021	7209	16020	16498	4392	3549	3273	5902	8410	2180	3275	10435	2036	29667	17017	2274	5706	24812	6537	5512	8642	3109	14652	2026	17369	7876	6736	19678	23108	2163	3273	3734	6700	5086	3225	14009	6984	6488	5015	4112	2391	6100	25049	10811	4208	4919	4255	3834	3293	6580	2440	3556	11198	6033	5084	2686	8531	3990	17997	5829	9208	3239	10129	3754	17122	6397	5960	16033	3428	7049	5101	5573	23162	5190	6632	3696	19903	4362	4409	18511	5368	6118	5550	5265	12435	7217	3868	5143	14878	9725	25626	13407	19499	7063	47689	26981	3729	17725	4834	5610	38709	14449	10760	3052	1899	41988	5504	22549	1963	2426	12767	1612	2489	5463	9024	15441	3519	4499	5105	19696	6745	28891	1721	4493	6651	4647	4195	6903	2276	7874	9508	2961	4081	13130	13615	5198	23712	6251	3946	18782	7281	7926	10099	7199	10767	10255	8102	27472	6973	4059	7064	3601	8591	1980	16891	5359	4927	4127	15517	4643	4416	5165	6050	988	1445	18051	24250	4731	3831	18560	3698	5698	33511	10760	11296	10829	4272	3889	4254	5264	11544	1306	3341	5232	3675	4137	3747	4543	5811	3735	6479	9155	10181	12140	18514	5744	6314	12391	6885	4237	4215	15758	11832	15474	3838	2835	16725	4451	12649	11680	8535	13912	3742	4416	2230	7740	7134	3718	2289	9585	5102	15167	6853	3047	858	24712	13066	4638	3983	3866	18524	18182	20628	17865	13922	5546	6263	4764	6419	3273	5991	4678	934	6938	3480	3242	4696	11221	22949	12189	3871	6656	19175	5231	6484	18494	4288	3865	4368	7784	5246	3957	10069
Last daily increment	45	44	68	115	73	87	136	71	245	330	99	31	155	132	35	86	174	210	1058	59	114	53	76	126	20	343	70	188	86	101	385	30	129	224	80	210	65	84	50	56	105	63	55	144	88	69	118	96	175	94	146	28	116	142	180	40	66	49	52	161	34	51	183	20	238	251	19	90	363	91	48	106	41	217	15	92	163	68	301	396	26	31	40	101	18	33	77	83	114	103	83	26	68	274	68	59	86	37	56	59	76	21	35	76	68	51	35	106	76	255	78	129	39	135	35	235	81	62	220	19	51	41	73	199	90	81	43	271	60	73	319	65	67	81	118	201	79	61	61	80	88	172	206	268	105	263	277	46	216	43	40	432	219	110	31	30	308	74	178	11	45	143	18	41	57	84	229	26	70	38	114	54	414	6	38	27	91	42	25	28	73	54	42	57	185	120	113	177	71	31	84	119	64	165	109	110	88	132	309	71	93	117	34	87	30	105	51	41	57	101	45	51	48	88	12	13	121	440	22	38	239	33	57	136	205	208	173	82	41	59	45	107	17	41	75	42	78	41	53	48	59	88	57	148	190	275	80	63	157	84	24	77	142	89	125	47	24	123	46	139	86	86	87	49	58	23	155	153	64	23	114	42	159	63	36	4	315	88	63	43	47	106	309	274	212	125	56	99	62	133	49	83	55	20	63	24	33	74	118	172	186	55	77	277	74	80	332	106	81	78	143	42	58	101
Last week	270	439	482	853	560	578	846	328	1726	2276	508	294	934	771	252	610	1043	1385	7162	387	885	384	336	970	101	2778	440	1240	743	614	2659	275	1230	1766	569	1533	483	590	362	615	664	396	358	1023	493	542	810	656	1144	533	925	222	721	1081	1292	332	494	331	367	993	274	410	1325	152	1475	1640	175	684	2671	636	326	716	286	1467	133	747	1031	442	1879	2674	237	287	344	578	152	257	559	566	886	815	487	203	481	2164	610	394	464	282	397	358	555	236	222	549	422	417	303	634	489	1792	531	988	263	929	270	1607	623	464	1475	360	410	420	574	1517	540	582	245	1935	364	448	2215	552	497	642	835	1154	615	397	562	509	666	968	1464	1994	659	1946	1695	434	1783	362	263	3593	1333	796	278	247	2167	561	1368	99	272	1220	124	305	502	585	1383	278	543	332	747	349	2779	82	285	170	547	264	226	271	694	389	221	351	1313	726	733	1227	472	206	632	707	554	938	758	1093	628	995	2043	498	510	754	264	588	180	661	386	307	334	633	380	342	270	727	83	152	860	2696	220	343	1971	260	457	1119	1231	1351	1003	558	285	395	345	943	138	271	370	276	462	332	362	471	347	596	389	1129	1027	1842	558	481	1306	482	216	518	1031	699	885	321	182	1016	460	1212	602	642	734	324	403	268	808	1093	391	184	674	402	1244	507	286	44	2081	811	417	343	317	673	1839	1830	1576	1033	325	595	487	798	333	725	416	79	481	192	253	501	1003	1189	1483	331	548	2211	560	543	2074	597	594	591	770	354	365	795
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	11-08	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-19	--	--	11-04	--	10-19	--	10-25	--	--	10-29	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	11-02	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	11-03	--	--	10-25	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-28	11-02	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	11-02	--	11-02	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	10-29	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-18	09-27	11-02	--	--	--	10-12	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	11-03	--	--	10-26	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-26	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-05	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-03	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	11-03	11-03	11-02	08-02	--	--	09-30	11-02	--	10-20	11-02	--	--	11-02	11-05	10-21	--	--	11-03	11-02	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	--	--	09-30	11-06	--	09-29	11-02	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-25	10-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-12	--	10-31	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	10-09	11-03	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	10-18	11-01	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-28	11-03	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-02	--	10-12	11-01	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82	49	62							29				77			625		170		58			135		441					71	321			43		57	70	159	141			54		40			131			34	128	146	61			62				68		293	144	20				52			182	29		60		252				27			31		81			32						59	75	28				41	129	71				28			71	31	55	44			65			75				48		45		55				65					30				360	152		99	541	268			60		529						64								92			36						51						96	122	35	61	68			608	67		256	53			86	88	101			95	50		41	42		196		64			43		67				237	232			184	36		438	116		104				66	141							24	69		75		76					118	89			184	125		31		161					177	48			95								47			138				258	166			133	58		22						91		22			320				137				41		31		64	48	130
Low between peaks			28	11	26							7							303									117					21	81						33	53	43					9			32			16	55	42				31				14		106	71	8				22				7				91				10			15					8							17	13					25	23				12			21	5	24	15			18			30				12																	92	20			154				20		58														34			10						14							35			6			70	30		58					36				25			12	20		59		22			19		15				48	91			26	14		116							22	56							11					22					28				46	48		9		58					33												7			27				69				34	21		11						19		5			74				21								18		15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-16 to 2021-01-22

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-15	2191	3479	6501	5669	6691	8307	8808	3168	19297	24286	13992	3220	15165	6085	5722	6575	10033	18830	75180	5232	14313	7352	4234	19839	3628	18143	5518	37130	8596	4547	21626	6063	11630	24106	4450	20393	4844	7654	5220	8206	13712	11083	4378	11546	5250	8568	6599	7022	11934	9289	10557	3021	7209	16020	16498	4392	3549	3273	5902	8410	2180	3275	10435	2036	29667	17017	2274	5706	24812	6537	5512	8642	3109	14652	2026	17369	7876	6736	19678	23108	2163	3273	3734	6700	5086	3225	14009	6984	6488	5015	4112	2391	6100	25049	10811	4208	4919	4255	3834	3293	6580	2440	3556	11198	6033	5084	2686	8531	3990	17997	5829	9208	3239	10129	3754	17122	6397	5960	16033	3428	7049	5101	5573	23162	5190	6632	3696	19903	4362	4409	18511	5368	6118	5550	5265	12435	7217	3868	5143	14878	9725	25626	13407	19499	7063	47689	26981	3729	17725	4834	5610	38709	14449	10760	3052	1899	41988	5504	22549	1963	2426	12767	1612	2489	5463	9024	15441	3519	4499	5105	19696	6745	28891	1721	4493	6651	4647	4195	6903	2276	7874	9508	2961	4081	13130	13615	5198	23712	6251	3946	18782	7281	7926	10099	7199	10767	10255	8102	27472	6973	4059	7064	3601	8591	1980	16891	5359	4927	4127	15517	4643	4416	5165	6050	988	1445	18051	24250	4731	3831	18560	3698	5698	33511	10760	11296	10829	4272	3889	4254	5264	11544	1306	3341	5232	3675	4137	3747	4543	5811	3735	6479	9155	10181	12140	18514	5744	6314	12391	6885	4237	4215	15758	11832	15474	3838	2835	16725	4451	12649	11680	8535	13912	3742	4416	2230	7740	7134	3718	2289	9585	5102	15167	6853	3047	858	24712	13066	4638	3983	3866	18524	18182	20628	17865	13922	5546	6263	4764	6419	3273	5991	4678	934	6938	3480	3242	4696	11221	22949	12189	3871	6656	19175	5231	6484	18494	4288	3865	4368	7784	5246	3957	10069
2021-01-16	2244	3607	6601	5811	6782	8423	8962	3233	19680	24750	14080	3281	15380	6135	5781	6575	10230	19140	76420	5291	14390	7412	4321	19960	3671	18610	5617	37290	8763	4597	22140	6087	11880	24460	4530	20740	4846	7784	5253	8303	13790	11180	4453	11760	5345	8676	6748	7152	12120	9376	10750	3063	7362	16220	17000	4482	3634	3332	5961	8610	2193	3354	10790	2064	29950	17320	2353	5851	25330	6658	5574	8789	3165	14820	2048	17550	7923	6819	20000	23580	2209	3352	3801	6821	5114	3271	14110	7043	6629	5159	4191	2435	6203	25500	10970	4285	5013	4303	3924	3341	6751	2485	3600	11350	6105	5201	2717	8672	4072	18370	5930	9520	3288	10300	3802	17450	6532	5997	16330	3500	7132	5183	5678	23490	5250	6748	3774	20280	4428	4499	18990	5525	6214	5636	5483	12670	7340	3899	5197	14980	9870	25770	13670	19880	7144	48020	27240	3817	18090	4898	5656	39360	14690	10920	3115	1913	42310	5622	22840	1981	2471	13000	1640	2543	5563	9098	15720	3581	4594	5178	19810	6802	29480	1736	4529	6682	4744	4239	6943	2326	7995	9597	3006	4144	13370	13750	5364	23840	6333	3983	18850	7424	8068	10260	7303	10970	10320	8263	27930	7056	4176	7207	3646	8718	2013	16980	5441	4971	4195	15620	4712	4485	5217	6190	1002	1459	18230	24640	4772	3897	19050	3758	5789	33790	10990	11470	11010	4420	3957	4336	5324	11780	1326	3376	5301	3746	4215	3811	4618	5873	3796	6600	9234	10420	12360	18890	5854	6418	12490	6978	4274	4311	15930	11940	15620	3893	2869	16820	4539	12890	11800	8671	14020	3798	4500	2271	8030	7334	3792	2326	9710	5186	15430	6952	3097	867	25150	13190	4713	4058	3934	18700	18460	20990	18170	14290	5609	6375	4856	6563	3341	6167	4751	945	7022	3513	3294	4794	11410	23220	12520	3935	6770	19670	5329	6594	18870	4488	3914	4368	7933	5340	4038	10380
2021-01-17	2298	3677	6682	5949	6855	8540	9116	3298	20060	25210	14160	3324	15600	6209	5821	6579	10430	19460	77440	5348	14460	7471	4390	20100	3680	19050	5719	37470	8935	4664	22570	6107	12120	24710	4606	21090	4888	7918	5298	8386	13900	11230	4529	11970	5439	8786	6898	7283	12300	9450	10950	3103	7517	16430	17280	4567	3717	3392	6020	8809	2207	3434	10970	2093	30240	17550	2394	5991	25850	6779	5608	8938	3221	14980	2071	17660	7948	6901	20230	23980	2257	3424	3868	6943	5142	3316	14200	7101	6751	5265	4257	2479	6308	25960	11130	4362	5091	4350	3973	3368	6824	2530	3642	11450	6175	5257	2749	8814	4153	18750	6031	9690	3338	10470	3850	17780	6671	6035	16620	3573	7217	5266	5785	23820	5316	6865	3812	20660	4493	4587	19330	5591	6310	5690	5559	12900	7466	3931	5254	15080	10010	25930	13850	20270	7209	48290	27490	3906	18470	4963	5701	39820	14930	11070	3179	1946	42650	5736	23140	1999	2515	13240	1668	2598	5664	9169	15990	3645	4690	5248	19930	6858	30070	1750	4564	6713	4841	4283	6983	2377	8118	9662	3048	4203	13610	13870	5528	23960	6412	4020	18920	7561	8180	10420	7405	11140	10380	8423	28400	7138	4265	7351	3690	8847	2045	17080	5524	5014	4263	15730	4781	4555	5269	6329	1017	1478	18360	25010	4815	3964	19370	3788	5883	33970	11220	11650	11190	4515	4027	4418	5384	11910	1346	3419	5369	3796	4292	3875	4696	5934	3857	6683	9313	10590	12570	19280	5967	6523	12630	7069	4304	4407	16080	12030	15770	3933	2904	16930	4628	13140	11920	8808	14120	3852	4585	2311	8199	7532	3866	2363	9830	5272	15700	7052	3146	876	25590	13320	4788	4135	4002	18810	18730	21360	18480	14460	5671	6487	4950	6707	3409	6281	4825	955	7098	3545	3347	4894	11600	23400	12750	3999	6886	20010	5426	6705	19150	4602	3964	4391	8082	5395	4118	10510
2021-01-18	2351	3788	6776	6092	6970	8655	9268	3362	20440	25670	14240	3391	15810	6350	5878	6662	10630	19770	78770	5404	14530	7528	4488	20290	3702	19610	5819	37700	9103	4792	23030	6127	12360	25070	4709	21440	4948	8048	5368	8522	14030	11320	4604	12180	5534	8893	7048	7412	12480	9548	11150	3144	7669	16630	17600	4654	3801	3451	6077	9005	2222	3513	11260	2121	30530	17880	2446	6131	26370	6900	5682	9085	3275	15140	2092	17810	8036	6983	20600	24430	2303	3494	3933	7063	5171	3360	14300	7157	7009	5443	4345	2523	6411	26420	11280	4439	5181	4396	4035	3411	6961	2575	3684	11570	6246	5363	2796	8955	4234	19120	6130	9900	3387	10640	3897	18110	6808	6073	16910	3648	7301	5349	5890	24140	5435	6981	3875	21040	4558	4675	19760	5722	6407	5805	5762	13130	7589	3964	5367	15180	10160	26120	14080	20650	7317	48710	27740	3994	18850	5025	5746	40420	15170	11230	3243	1995	43080	5849	23430	2017	2560	13470	1695	2652	5763	9241	16270	3707	4785	5314	20050	6913	30660	1765	4623	6744	4937	4327	7022	2427	8242	9746	3090	4261	13850	14000	5693	24080	6492	4056	18980	7695	8318	10570	7509	11410	10440	8581	28850	7219	4366	7494	3735	8973	2076	17210	5605	5056	4330	15830	4850	4624	5321	6470	1031	1509	18530	25540	4856	4030	19790	3836	5974	34210	11450	11890	11380	4664	4095	4499	5443	12120	1367	3470	5437	3851	4368	3939	4772	6032	3916	6806	9390	10830	12780	19660	6076	6627	12870	7162	4365	4503	16260	12170	15920	3997	2939	17090	4716	13380	12050	8940	14260	3907	4668	2350	8398	7728	3940	2399	9950	5356	15960	7152	3196	885	26030	13480	4862	4211	4069	18960	19010	21730	18790	14710	5732	6599	5044	6849	3476	6430	4898	966	7184	3576	3399	4991	11790	23640	13080	4063	7000	20480	5523	6815	19520	4743	4074	4480	8229	5465	4200	10690
2021-01-19	2405	3875	6878	6233	7088	8772	9421	3427	20830	26140	14330	3455	16030	6460	5926	6714	10830	20090	80100	5460	14600	7584	4563	20470	3725	20160	5922	37930	9277	4908	23580	6145	12600	25410	4828	21790	5013	8182	5445	8655	14160	11390	4680	12400	5628	9003	7198	7542	12660	9636	11350	3184	7824	16830	17940	4741	3884	3510	6134	9202	2236	3593	11530	2149	30810	18190	2500	6269	26900	7022	5742	9234	3330	15300	2115	17960	8168	7064	20930	24960	2350	3560	4000	7185	5201	3404	14400	7212	7188	5603	4460	2568	6517	26880	11440	4516	5278	4442	4112	3496	7082	2621	3724	11680	6315	5454	2851	9097	4315	19500	6231	10070	3437	10820	3945	18440	6949	6112	17210	3722	7387	5433	5997	24470	5529	7099	3926	21430	4623	4762	20220	5849	6505	5917	5980	13360	7715	3997	5455	15280	10300	26320	14300	21040	7399	49110	27990	4083	19230	5087	5790	41010	15410	11380	3308	2048	43460	5961	23730	2035	2604	13710	1723	2706	5863	9310	16540	3771	4882	5379	20160	6968	31260	1779	4672	6775	5032	4370	7062	2477	8367	9816	3130	4318	14090	14130	5860	24200	6570	4092	19050	7825	8467	10720	7612	11610	10500	8738	29320	7300	4465	7638	3778	9102	2108	17320	5688	5099	4398	15930	4919	4693	5371	6611	1045	1535	18690	26000	4898	4096	20180	3902	6067	34450	11680	12150	11560	4805	4166	4581	5502	12300	1387	3527	5504	3923	4443	4003	4849	6106	3976	6939	9468	11070	12990	20040	6188	6733	13070	7254	4396	4598	16450	12320	16060	4056	2973	17240	4805	13630	12170	9074	14400	3962	4754	2389	8614	7925	4013	2436	10080	5443	16230	7252	3245	894	26480	13640	4936	4288	4137	19100	19280	22100	19100	14930	5794	6711	5138	6991	3543	6578	4971	976	7270	3607	3452	5090	11980	23870	13380	4127	7116	20910	5620	6927	19900	4892	4170	4538	8377	5545	4283	10850
2021-01-20	2459	3953	6944	6375	7200	8890	9575	3492	21230	26610	14410	3502	16250	6571	5964	6753	11030	20420	81310	5515	14670	7640	4665	20600	3745	20620	6025	38180	9453	5033	24040	6162	12840	25700	4943	22150	5075	8318	5496	8763	14260	11480	4756	12610	5725	9113	7351	7674	12850	9714	11550	3224	7981	17040	18250	4830	3968	3570	6191	9400	2251	3674	11790	2177	31100	18470	2549	6409	27430	7144	5804	9384	3385	15460	2137	18100	8232	7146	21250	25490	2397	3627	4067	7307	5230	3449	14490	7267	7405	5758	4535	2613	6623	27350	11600	4594	5361	4488	4160	3549	7189	2667	3763	11760	6385	5513	2879	9241	4396	19880	6332	10230	3487	10990	3993	18780	7091	6151	17500	3798	7473	5519	6105	24800	5643	7218	3999	21810	4688	4850	20600	5968	6605	6024	6208	13590	7842	4030	5493	15380	10450	26530	14510	21430	7488	49500	28240	4173	19610	5150	5833	41510	15650	11540	3374	2081	43790	6072	24030	2053	2649	13950	1750	2761	5963	9380	16820	3835	4979	5443	20270	7023	31860	1794	4733	6806	5128	4413	7102	2528	8495	9876	3170	4376	14340	14260	6030	24330	6649	4128	19120	7955	8575	10860	7717	11790	10560	8897	29790	7381	4563	7783	3822	9231	2140	17460	5771	5142	4466	16030	4989	4764	5422	6753	1059	1562	18840	26440	4940	4163	20530	3965	6162	34650	11920	12390	11750	4849	4237	4664	5561	12450	1408	3575	5572	3980	4519	4068	4928	6180	4036	7053	9547	11280	13200	20430	6301	6840	13240	7348	4426	4694	16600	12440	16210	4127	3008	17400	4895	13880	12290	9209	14520	4017	4840	2429	8800	8124	4087	2473	10200	5530	16500	7353	3295	903	26930	13780	5011	4367	4205	19200	19550	22470	19410	15100	5855	6823	5233	7134	3610	6718	5045	986	7351	3638	3505	5190	12170	24060	13620	4191	7233	21250	5717	7039	20280	5049	4260	4579	8526	5596	4367	11000
2021-01-21	2514	4017	7011	6519	7283	9008	9731	3559	21620	27090	14490	3540	16480	6658	5993	6790	11230	20740	82430	5571	14740	7697	4738	20750	3758	21040	6129	38310	9630	5120	24510	6180	13080	25970	5030	22510	5123	8454	5559	8868	14350	11510	4833	12830	5823	9223	7504	7807	13030	9790	11760	3265	8139	17240	18510	4920	4053	3631	6248	9601	2266	3755	12000	2206	31390	18710	2579	6549	27970	7268	5864	9535	3440	15620	2159	18200	8332	7229	21530	25930	2445	3694	4134	7431	5260	3493	14590	7321	7571	5876	4613	2658	6730	27830	11770	4672	5445	4534	4207	3587	7255	2713	3803	11830	6456	5579	2919	9386	4479	20260	6435	10370	3538	11160	4041	19120	7234	6191	17800	3874	7559	5604	6214	25140	5720	7337	4048	22200	4755	4939	20970	6059	6706	6095	6324	13820	7970	4063	5577	15480	10600	26600	14670	21820	7563	49700	28490	4264	20000	5214	5877	41920	15890	11700	3441	2113	44130	6184	24330	2072	2694	14190	1778	2816	6065	9450	17100	3901	5077	5508	20390	7078	32470	1808	4768	6836	5226	4457	7142	2579	8624	9939	3210	4434	14580	14380	6206	24450	6728	4165	19180	8084	8679	11010	7823	11950	10630	9057	30260	7463	4656	7929	3866	9361	2172	17560	5855	5185	4535	16130	5059	4835	5474	6896	1073	1591	18970	26860	4982	4231	20810	4002	6256	34780	12170	12610	11940	4914	4308	4748	5621	12600	1428	3611	5641	4031	4595	4134	5006	6257	4097	7151	9625	11450	13420	20820	6415	6948	13360	7443	4457	4792	16740	12540	16360	4174	3043	17500	4986	14130	12410	9345	14620	4074	4926	2469	8971	8325	4162	2511	10320	5618	16770	7454	3346	912	27380	13890	5086	4446	4274	19280	19830	22840	19720	15220	5918	6936	5329	7279	3678	6840	5120	996	7416	3669	3559	5291	12360	24210	13830	4256	7351	21540	5816	7152	20590	5191	4327	4608	8676	5640	4453	11110
2021-01-22	2570	4068	7075	6664	7350	9127	9887	3625	22020	27570	14580	3571	16700	6759	6028	6874	11440	21070	83400	5628	14800	7754	4791	20870	3775	21400	6235	38470	9809	5211	24870	6199	13330	26180	5104	22870	5183	8591	5601	8932	14440	11570	4911	13050	5923	9334	7660	7941	13220	9870	11960	3306	8299	17450	18670	5013	4139	3692	6306	9804	2281	3838	12200	2234	31680	18930	2593	6691	28510	7392	5909	9687	3495	15790	2182	18290	8484	7312	21800	26300	2493	3761	4202	7556	5290	3537	14680	7376	7675	5979	4679	2704	6837	28310	11930	4752	5519	4580	4266	3648	7320	2760	3842	11910	6527	5640	2948	9532	4562	20650	6538	10520	3589	11340	4089	19460	7378	6231	18110	3951	7646	5691	6324	25470	5801	7458	4074	22590	4822	5028	21280	6129	6809	6180	6446	14060	8099	4096	5626	15590	10750	26740	14860	22220	7649	49950	28750	4356	20400	5278	5921	42370	16140	11860	3509	2142	44390	6298	24640	2090	2739	14430	1806	2872	6167	9520	17390	3966	5176	5573	20500	7134	33090	1823	4803	6867	5324	4501	7183	2631	8755	9991	3250	4493	14830	14510	6386	24570	6807	4202	19250	8214	8708	11150	7930	12060	10690	9219	30740	7545	4755	8077	3910	9492	2204	17650	5939	5228	4604	16230	5130	4906	5525	7040	1087	1605	19080	27260	5024	4299	21050	4030	6352	34910	12420	12810	12130	4998	4381	4832	5681	12710	1450	3645	5710	4066	4672	4200	5086	6305	4158	7232	9704	11600	13630	21210	6530	7056	13510	7539	4480	4890	16880	12620	16500	4218	3078	17610	5078	14390	12540	9482	14700	4131	5014	2509	9110	8529	4237	2548	10450	5706	17050	7557	3397	922	27840	13980	5162	4525	4343	19380	20120	23220	20040	15340	5980	7051	5426	7425	3746	6923	5195	1006	7469	3700	3613	5393	12560	24360	14010	4322	7470	21820	5916	7266	20900	5303	4406	4685	8827	5687	4541	11220

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-16 to 2021-01-22

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-15	2191	3479	6501	5669	6691	8307	8808	3168	19297	24286	13992	3220	15165	6085	5722	6575	10033	18830	75180	5232	14313	7352	4234	19839	3628	18143	5518	37130	8596	4547	21626	6063	11630	24106	4450	20393	4844	7654	5220	8206	13712	11083	4378	11546	5250	8568	6599	7022	11934	9289	10557	3021	7209	16020	16498	4392	3549	3273	5902	8410	2180	3275	10435	2036	29667	17017	2274	5706	24812	6537	5512	8642	3109	14652	2026	17369	7876	6736	19678	23108	2163	3273	3734	6700	5086	3225	14009	6984	6488	5015	4112	2391	6100	25049	10811	4208	4919	4255	3834	3293	6580	2440	3556	11198	6033	5084	2686	8531	3990	17997	5829	9208	3239	10129	3754	17122	6397	5960	16033	3428	7049	5101	5573	23162	5190	6632	3696	19903	4362	4409	18511	5368	6118	5550	5265	12435	7217	3868	5143	14878	9725	25626	13407	19499	7063	47689	26981	3729	17725	4834	5610	38709	14449	10760	3052	1899	41988	5504	22549	1963	2426	12767	1612	2489	5463	9024	15441	3519	4499	5105	19696	6745	28891	1721	4493	6651	4647	4195	6903	2276	7874	9508	2961	4081	13130	13615	5198	23712	6251	3946	18782	7281	7926	10099	7199	10767	10255	8102	27472	6973	4059	7064	3601	8591	1980	16891	5359	4927	4127	15517	4643	4416	5165	6050	988	1445	18051	24250	4731	3831	18560	3698	5698	33511	10760	11296	10829	4272	3889	4254	5264	11544	1306	3341	5232	3675	4137	3747	4543	5811	3735	6479	9155	10181	12140	18514	5744	6314	12391	6885	4237	4215	15758	11832	15474	3838	2835	16725	4451	12649	11680	8535	13912	3742	4416	2230	7740	7134	3718	2289	9585	5102	15167	6853	3047	858	24712	13066	4638	3983	3866	18524	18182	20628	17865	13922	5546	6263	4764	6419	3273	5991	4678	934	6938	3480	3242	4696	11221	22949	12189	3871	6656	19175	5231	6484	18494	4288	3865	4368	7784	5246	3957	10069
2021-01-16	2240	3554	6564	5777	6771	8375	8927	3226	19570	24580	14070	3260	15310	6184	5760	6664	10210	19010	76350	5293	14440	7412	4283	20000	3644	18580	5582	37310	8670	4647	22070	6099	11720	24360	4534	20620	4903	7742	5275	8276	13810	11140	4445	11690	5338	8629	6702	7124	12120	9373	10700	3052	7315	16190	16730	4447	3626	3324	5957	8582	2210	3342	10630	2059	29870	17300	2302	5783	25250	6630	5558	8757	3149	14880	2046	17470	8037	6810	19990	23480	2201	3316	3790	6784	5112	3267	14100	7076	6626	5115	4184	2424	6162	25390	10890	4265	4999	4302	3902	3336	6649	2467	3592	11290	6103	5155	2736	8634	4067	18310	5910	9380	3282	10260	3796	17360	6497	6014	16260	3472	7115	5158	5659	23380	5251	6721	3734	20220	4418	4461	18860	5451	6199	5621	5403	12630	7327	3927	5229	14950	9830	25760	13620	19810	7145	47960	27200	3804	18020	4892	5642	39260	14670	10850	3098	1925	42300	5591	22740	1979	2474	12950	1630	2539	5536	9085	15660	3566	4581	5146	19820	6802	29300	1733	4535	6679	4741	4236	6938	2310	7983	9574	2998	4131	13340	13730	5314	23920	6328	3979	18870	7388	8010	10260	7318	10940	10350	8261	27810	7049	4150	7161	3643	8679	2008	16970	5421	4975	4168	15600	4705	4470	5212	6162	1000	1465	18210	24660	4758	3881	18880	3737	5763	33690	10990	11500	10980	4367	3938	4308	5320	11700	1333	3378	5279	3723	4199	3797	4592	5886	3790	6570	9217	10350	12290	18800	5834	6398	12560	6964	4265	4306	15920	11930	15600	3876	2859	16850	4515	12840	11760	8633	14010	3785	4478	2265	7888	7324	3784	2325	9700	5156	15320	6926	3083	862	25000	13180	4688	4025	3917	18620	18480	20900	18090	14100	5597	6352	4842	6537	3332	6105	4740	946	7015	3510	3280	4755	11360	23120	12440	3910	6728	19500	5317	6558	18820	4388	3947	4439	7922	5306	4022	10210
2021-01-17	2287	3645	6640	5911	6842	8476	9063	3289	19880	24950	14150	3310	15500	6290	5803	6729	10410	19280	77580	5351	14560	7474	4321	20150	3659	19110	5663	37500	8791	4733	22500	6148	11900	24640	4619	20910	4971	7856	5327	8378	13920	11200	4516	11880	5425	8723	6836	7242	12310	9455	10870	3087	7447	16390	16970	4506	3712	3380	6008	8761	2257	3432	10860	2085	30120	17560	2334	5876	25720	6740	5607	8891	3192	15110	2069	17580	8203	6889	20290	23890	2245	3359	3838	6878	5141	3307	14190	7155	6780	5224	4252	2468	6249	25810	11020	4330	5068	4352	3975	3385	6732	2506	3621	11390	6175	5231	2792	8759	4150	18670	6002	9590	3332	10410	3842	17660	6621	6087	16510	3530	7199	5233	5762	23670	5317	6827	3759	20590	4467	4519	19220	5545	6289	5716	5574	12840	7449	3983	5324	15040	9950	25910	13880	20120	7220	48240	27440	3893	18380	4958	5681	39970	14900	10970	3156	1963	42670	5691	22980	1997	2520	13160	1653	2595	5621	9177	15910	3630	4685	5201	19940	6859	29790	1747	4573	6709	4838	4278	6977	2349	8106	9640	3033	4172	13600	13850	5447	24130	6396	4016	18980	7491	8090	10380	7434	11130	10460	8436	28230	7134	4243	7283	3691	8776	2040	17070	5492	5028	4207	15700	4780	4535	5260	6285	1013	1486	18350	25040	4789	3942	19290	3784	5841	33890	11240	11710	11100	4451	4000	4377	5378	11860	1350	3419	5337	3766	4264	3860	4645	5959	3851	6639	9292	10550	12460	19120	5938	6491	12770	7045	4297	4401	16090	12040	15740	3923	2889	17020	4595	13050	11860	8756	14130	3831	4556	2305	8019	7535	3858	2361	9810	5229	15510	7011	3129	869	25350	13270	4752	4082	3965	18730	18790	21220	18340	14310	5653	6446	4928	6648	3390	6234	4802	955	7090	3541	3325	4836	11510	23290	12700	3963	6825	19880	5411	6647	19120	4488	4045	4527	8064	5373	4093	10360
2021-01-18	2346	3753	6729	6085	6958	8591	9232	3353	20270	25420	14240	3370	15690	6438	5851	6870	10610	19560	78960	5410	14730	7536	4394	20340	3680	19720	5755	37730	8976	4851	23000	6197	12180	25010	4722	21220	5050	7974	5389	8505	14050	11270	4589	12090	5515	8845	7005	7377	12500	9545	11050	3133	7573	16610	17220	4570	3810	3435	6072	8972	2312	3535	11180	2112	30420	17890	2372	6033	26240	6859	5670	9030	3245	15380	2092	17730	8391	6970	20650	24380	2290	3418	3920	6996	5171	3351	14280	7265	6969	5415	4342	2513	6344	26250	11140	4403	5148	4402	4052	3451	6860	2565	3661	11490	6246	5314	2855	8889	4237	19040	6099	9820	3382	10580	3891	17980	6753	6201	16790	3605	7284	5312	5870	23960	5445	6935	3807	20960	4532	4611	19640	5675	6380	5858	5808	13070	7579	4050	5427	15140	10090	26110	14150	20550	7340	48660	27730	3983	18760	5025	5735	40740	15150	11150	3214	2014	43090	5791	23280	2014	2566	13390	1681	2651	5719	9281	16160	3695	4798	5261	20060	6915	30410	1761	4626	6740	4935	4320	7016	2407	8241	9713	3069	4233	13870	13970	5593	24350	6494	4053	19100	7614	8200	10550	7559	11350	10560	8613	28660	7229	4339	7428	3739	8886	2076	17210	5563	5084	4279	15810	4856	4605	5312	6434	1029	1515	18520	25560	4843	4003	19750	3838	5923	34120	11500	11940	11300	4542	4059	4458	5444	12060	1376	3462	5412	3814	4350	3925	4727	6052	3915	6750	9367	10790	12660	19510	6048	6584	13040	7130	4352	4496	16270	12170	15900	3987	2927	17210	4704	13280	11980	8888	14260	3886	4635	2346	8168	7761	3933	2399	9930	5302	15780	7106	3193	879	25800	13420	4836	4157	4033	18870	19110	21610	18670	14550	5713	6548	5017	6813	3456	6382	4890	964	7172	3572	3381	4937	11710	23510	13010	4024	6938	20410	5516	6763	19500	4610	4175	4660	8207	5448	4165	10550
2021-01-19	2405	3854	6821	6247	7072	8700	9386	3417	20700	25910	14320	3429	15890	6586	5897	6985	10810	19860	80360	5470	14880	7597	4454	20510	3702	20340	5850	37960	9144	4969	23530	6246	12450	25360	4836	21540	5133	8094	5457	8633	14170	11350	4667	12310	5609	8959	7180	7510	12700	9637	11230	3177	7704	16820	17480	4636	3908	3491	6138	9179	2362	3634	11460	2139	30720	18210	2412	6196	26760	6985	5728	9168	3302	15650	2115	17890	8605	7052	21000	24940	2336	3467	3992	7112	5200	3398	14380	7367	7144	5599	4454	2558	6438	26680	11270	4482	5236	4453	4136	3544	6975	2617	3697	11600	6317	5395	2920	9026	4325	19410	6193	10030	3433	10750	3937	18310	6884	6290	17080	3681	7369	5393	5976	24280	5539	7045	3856	21350	4596	4696	20060	5798	6471	5999	6052	13300	7710	4121	5528	15250	10230	26300	14420	20980	7437	49060	28050	4074	19150	5092	5783	41520	15400	11310	3272	2072	43480	5892	23570	2032	2612	13610	1708	2708	5817	9383	16420	3760	4913	5320	20180	6972	31030	1776	4673	6773	5033	4365	7055	2466	8370	9782	3107	4299	14140	14090	5738	24560	6577	4090	19210	7733	8305	10720	7683	11560	10680	8792	29100	7319	4434	7578	3788	9009	2110	17320	5634	5139	4357	15930	4933	4677	5365	6576	1044	1540	18690	26040	4884	4066	20210	3899	6005	34350	11760	12180	11500	4634	4122	4547	5510	12240	1400	3507	5476	3871	4423	3988	4815	6136	3978	6875	9443	11010	12860	19930	6158	6682	13290	7219	4384	4593	16470	12300	16040	4048	2963	17390	4799	13530	12090	9025	14410	3941	4717	2401	8321	8000	4010	2439	10060	5379	16050	7208	3244	889	26250	13560	4915	4226	4092	19010	19420	21990	18990	14780	5772	6651	5108	6968	3520	6527	4972	972	7258	3603	3435	5044	11920	23710	13330	4088	7044	20900	5614	6876	19910	4737	4297	4769	8352	5528	4238	10730
2021-01-20	2464	3956	6905	6422	7185	8824	9557	3483	21150	26480	14410	3482	16140	6737	5941	7093	11010	20190	81740	5529	15030	7660	4520	20660	3725	21020	5956	38190	9347	5091	24010	6295	12800	25730	4948	21930	5228	8240	5511	8743	14280	11430	4744	12540	5700	9088	7375	7639	12910	9719	11440	3237	7884	17030	17740	4706	4001	3548	6196	9381	2407	3742	11770	2169	31060	18540	2451	6399	27300	7131	5793	9334	3368	15930	2139	18030	8845	7145	21360	25540	2382	3522	4073	7248	5230	3449	14470	7472	7311	5803	4535	2603	6550	27200	11440	4563	5324	4504	4214	3655	7101	2674	3731	11700	6388	5474	2980	9182	4417	19790	6289	10250	3484	10930	3985	18670	7017	6385	17390	3764	7459	5488	6094	24680	5666	7172	3915	21790	4665	4832	20460	5932	6564	6158	6319	13560	7841	4183	5624	15340	10390	26490	14700	21430	7555	49430	28380	4168	19600	5160	5825	42300	15680	11510	3332	2115	43850	5995	23960	2050	2659	13860	1742	2766	5922	9525	16720	3827	5029	5382	20300	7029	31750	1790	4728	6809	5133	4410	7095	2524	8500	9860	3147	4359	14420	14210	5876	24780	6665	4128	19330	7866	8407	10880	7810	11760	10770	8974	29620	7413	4532	7742	3837	9155	2142	17460	5707	5193	4431	16060	5011	4745	5415	6741	1060	1567	18870	26510	4923	4130	20660	3965	6107	34540	12020	12420	11720	4714	4196	4643	5574	12420	1430	3549	5563	3921	4505	4055	4911	6214	4051	6992	9537	11250	13090	20310	6268	6789	13560	7310	4418	4692	16650	12440	16210	4126	3006	17590	4907	13800	12240	9158	14550	4005	4810	2443	8503	8216	4087	2478	10180	5469	16380	7321	3298	901	26810	13700	5000	4315	4174	19130	19740	22440	19350	15000	5831	6764	5207	7128	3586	6671	5052	981	7350	3634	3486	5161	12160	23920	13640	4164	7168	21420	5711	7002	20310	4898	4421	4865	8498	5593	4313	10910
2021-01-21	2530	4061	6987	6597	7290	8953	9721	3550	21580	26990	14490	3531	16340	6873	5985	7200	11220	20540	83090	5590	15170	7723	4576	20820	3747	21590	6069	38400	9523	5197	24500	6345	13130	26090	5053	22260	5313	8361	5573	8890	14400	11500	4819	12770	5792	9205	7573	7753	13100	9805	11630	3293	8004	17270	17990	4773	4101	3605	6259	9593	2464	3857	12110	2196	31370	18830	2489	6593	27850	7248	5856	9476	3429	16190	2163	18160	9056	7226	21700	26130	2430	3572	4152	7364	5260	3497	14560	7563	7511	5962	4619	2650	6665	27640	11580	4637	5406	4556	4298	3731	7202	2727	3761	11800	6460	5555	3046	9345	4503	20170	6389	10480	3537	11130	4033	18990	7172	6497	17690	3840	7545	5567	6201	24990	5775	7282	3958	22180	4725	4938	20860	6050	6658	6284	6587	13790	7971	4259	5729	15450	10530	26640	14990	21900	7664	49740	28700	4264	20000	5229	5871	43100	15930	11680	3392	2156	44250	6099	24250	2067	2707	14100	1771	2826	6027	9650	16990	3895	5138	5447	20430	7087	32430	1805	4764	6840	5235	4453	7134	2586	8630	9929	3183	4420	14720	14340	6030	25000	6734	4166	19440	7991	8506	11030	7941	11960	10880	9161	30070	7508	4648	7887	3887	9270	2177	17590	5781	5248	4511	16160	5090	4817	5468	6910	1076	1595	19020	27000	4966	4195	21130	4028	6189	34750	12300	12650	11900	4799	4256	4734	5637	12600	1455	3587	5628	3974	4585	4129	4980	6303	4111	7091	9613	11450	13290	20740	6388	6880	13810	7407	4455	4792	16820	12560	16370	4186	3039	17760	4999	14030	12370	9324	14670	4064	4894	2481	8668	8447	4166	2517	10290	5546	16680	7415	3356	911	27240	13810	5077	4387	4240	19220	20070	22800	19690	15230	5899	6883	5297	7286	3647	6831	5120	990	7419	3665	3543	5273	12370	24110	13910	4232	7301	21920	5814	7127	20670	5057	4545	4976	8647	5663	4389	11090
2021-01-22	2584	4160	7051	6717	7370	9069	9860	3619	21970	27350	14570	3589	16530	7005	6030	7319	11430	20820	84380	5652	15280	7786	4624	20960	3769	22140	6161	38580	9663	5303	24970	6396	13370	26380	5143	22540	5396	8476	5626	8988	14500	11570	4895	12970	5896	9327	7732	7869	13290	9889	11810	3331	8111	17440	18220	4843	4194	3663	6317	9792	2520	3962	12390	2223	31640	19110	2518	6743	28330	7353	5912	9615	3476	16450	2186	18290	9272	7309	22020	26570	2478	3620	4208	7465	5290	3538	14640	7656	7680	6087	4699	2697	6762	28080	11700	4705	5480	4608	4376	3816	7298	2778	3793	11890	6533	5636	3108	9479	4590	20560	6481	10690	3590	11270	4079	19330	7308	6587	17940	3919	7629	5645	6303	25270	5876	7390	3990	22560	4782	5014	21240	6160	6753	6418	6838	14020	8100	4322	5831	15560	10660	26800	15260	22280	7770	50050	29000	4361	20380	5298	5917	43910	16170	11800	3453	2191	44590	6206	24480	2085	2756	14320	1801	2887	6121	9729	17250	3963	5251	5517	20550	7144	33010	1819	4805	6871	5338	4495	7174	2625	8769	9994	3219	4461	14990	14450	6190	25210	6815	4205	19560	8108	8566	11170	8069	12140	10980	9351	30510	7593	4751	8023	3938	9355	2211	17700	5855	5303	4566	16260	5171	4895	5525	7039	1090	1615	19170	27450	5009	4253	21580	4077	6269	34940	12580	12870	12100	4887	4315	4804	5706	12780	1483	3627	5686	4018	4654	4192	5038	6383	4172	7174	9686	11650	13480	21120	6492	6972	14020	7499	4486	4895	16990	12660	16500	4245	3072	17930	5081	14240	12460	9440	14780	4108	4976	2521	8810	8686	4247	2556	10430	5621	16870	7494	3414	919	27610	13920	5152	4445	4297	19340	20430	23160	19960	15430	5955	6982	5388	7420	3710	6962	5183	998	7478	3697	3598	5378	12550	24280	14160	4278	7399	22390	5906	7226	21060	5217	4660	5083	8799	5737	4467	11290

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-15 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-15