COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-22

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	12-30	12-27	12-21	--	12-08	12-25	12-27	12-26	12-21	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-04	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-17	2021-01-03	--	12-27	2021-01-03	--	2021-01-08	11-15	--	12-18	10-29	12-22	--	12-27	12-14	12-27	--	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-22	--	12-27	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-27	12-08	--	12-15	12-21	2021-01-04	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	--	--	--	12-21	2021-01-04	12-25	12-27	--	--	12-23	--	--	12-27	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	--	11-02	10-14	--	12-07	2021-01-03	12-27	12-23	2021-01-03	12-26	12-21	11-02	--	10-31	--	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-19	12-25	12-14	12-24	2021-01-10	12-21	12-26	--	12-18	12-27	10-11	10-30	12-26	12-22	--	12-22	--	12-27	12-18	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-26	12-27	12-26	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-27	12-14	12-29	12-21	12-29	12-21	2021-01-05	12-24	12-25	--	2021-01-11	12-28	12-27	12-21	12-27	--	--	10-28	12-21	10-27	12-27	12-27	2021-01-11	12-27	--	12-27	12-27	--	11-29	12-27	12-25	12-14	12-21	--	2021-01-05	2021-01-11	12-14	11-04	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	--	12-17	12-26	--	--	2021-01-10	11-04	12-27	12-08	2021-01-03	10-25	12-26	10-29	11-04	12-27	12-30	11-03	--	--	12-25	12-21	2021-01-03	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-27	--	2021-01-10	12-29	--	2021-01-03	12-21	12-30	--	12-21	12-26	12-15	12-27	12-28	12-15	2021-01-02	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-26	12-27	12-25	12-29	2021-01-03	2021-01-03	--	11-01	12-21	12-31	12-27	12-15	09-29	--	12-25	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	--	--	12-29	--	12-22	2021-01-07	--	12-21	12-20	2021-01-08	--	--	12-21	12-21	12-14	12-27	12-26	12-21	2021-01-08	12-25	10-31	12-27	12-28	--	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-21	2021-01-03	12-30	12-23	2021-01-08	--	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-15	12-12	12-14	2021-01-03	12-18	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	12-21	10-28	--	12-21	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-28	--	12-25	12-18	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-21	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-21	--	2021-01-08	12-28	2021-01-03	12-21	12-30	--	12-26
Peak daily increment	60	86	95	163		172	173	75	457	552	191	59	318	129	100	104	229	418	1233		153	63		161	49		135	441	222		516	158	294		104	485	90	181		115	119	141	92	249	85	149		177	289	91	253	49	186	238				69	64	231	50			34			36	172	581	144	67	185	70		29	249		118	321	528	55	49	74	152	110		225		157	142	101	52	139	564	283	91	76	52	86		123	52	41	129	78	87		175		430	117	208	57	194	55	392	165	98	331	93	102	138	118	488	98	151	45	435	57	108	439		87	129	226	267	141			296	192	360	306	420	108	369		103	429		113	695	265	194	85		366	98	419	29		286	50	60	147		353	75			127	85	683	23	50	159	103	49	108	57	119	122			269	151	121	218	88	42	118	122	102		121	195		169	610	86		167	50	192	39	124	140	55	98	199	76	81	58	168	15	25	157		85	79	386	60	129	435		242		94	98	98			25		81	46		75	103	81			112	237	302	430	127	147	234	89	57	106	173		194	63	40	197	102	315	189	172	122	55	104	44		285	86	43	134	119	373	137	49	11	542	148	88	102	81	258		437	379	218	74	132	112	153		151	86	22	81	42	63	110	213	212	256	77	143	410	104	133		107	112	95	166	69		176
Days since peak	25	23	26	32		45	28	26	27	32	101	26	30	18	11	23	26	36	19		26	19		14	68		35	85	31		26	39	26		26	32	27	31		26	26	80	32	27	26	45		38	32	18	32	26	31	32				32	18	28	26			30			26	28	26	32	28	32	32		81	100		46	19	26	30	19	27	32	81		83		24	25	32	30	34	28	39	29	12	32	27		35	26	103	84	27	31		31		26	35	26	31	31	32	32	27	26	27	31	32	39	26	39	24	32	24	32	17	29	28		11	25	26	32	26			86	32	87	26	26	11	26		26	26		54	26	28	39	32		17	11	39	79		32	32	32	32		36	27			12	79	26	45	19	89	27	85	79	26	23	80			28	32	19	24	26	26	26	24	26		12	24		19	32	23		32	27	38	26	25	38	20	40	97	23	27	26	28	24	19	19		82	32	22	26	38	115		28		32	32	32			24		31	15		32	33	14			32	32	39	26	27	32	14	28	83	26	25		82	32	30	28	26	32	46	32	19	23	30	14		26	32	28	32	38	41	39	19	35	32	20	32	32	32	86		32	35	28	32	32	31	25		28	35	40	25	46	32	28	31	26	21	32	32	24	26	32		14	25	19	32	23		27
Last total	2434	3850	7030	6321	7268	8786	9601	3392	20711	26395	14651	3491	15967	6765	6150	7072	10989	20030	82095	5611	15165	7732	4661	20804	3771	20627	5925	38821	9316	5071	23920	6329	12558	25683	4923	21777	5234	8173	5620	8687	14326	11570	4732	12407	5698	9073	7192	7463	12969	9849	11185	3213	7784	17048	17741	4825	3953	3558	6314	9291	2431	3719	11508	2207	31348	18775	2406	6355	26979	7073	5859	9224	3364	16121	2224	18144	8932	7076	21652	25526	2338	3463	4057	7208	5229	3519	14624	7489	7190	5688	4481	2563	6479	26722	11375	4532	5383	4444	4179	3704	7168	2603	3828	11695	6393	5525	2968	9163	4446	19652	6288	10054	3471	10906	4013	18454	6923	6367	17458	3688	7338	5471	5985	24357	5677	7111	3942	21717	4704	4773	20409	5898	6583	6060	5865	13265	7704	4319	5765	15402	10397	26758	14738	21040	7686	50070	28964	4131	19201	5238	5922	41638	15804	11365	3317	2105	44007	6085	23727	2082	2729	13793	1734	2745	5892	9714	16719	3794	4990	5456	20431	7089	31161	1787	4855	6811	5215	4409	7136	2513	8456	9965	3270	4447	14449	14417	5854	25032	6738	4119	19399	7895	8422	11085	7859	11745	10940	9012	29277	7536	4597	7781	3819	9145	2119	17593	5657	5229	4409	16298	5028	4668	5489	6671	1069	1553	18954	26920	4869	4150	20108	3948	6125	34912	11879	12448	11788	4759	4158	4648	5678	12445	1409	3634	5657	3926	4603	4020	4918	6280	4154	7079	9590	11213	12970	19906	6212	6744	13653	7322	4449	4686	16635	12573	16331	4107	3006	17727	4821	13722	12168	9088	14649	4073	4771	2449	8505	8045	4117	2478	10159	5439	15987	7275	3292	893	26238	13785	4978	4258	4210	19464	20123	22177	19130	14872	5957	6720	5060	6999	3625	6673	5102	1034	7443	3659	3422	5194	12145	24056	13427	4161	7118	20918	5688	6943	20388	4807	4293	4867	8496	5569	4271	10684
Last daily increment	29	53	68	83	73	57	105	30	162	253	75	24	85	85	36	57	122	128	835	30	106	43	44	117	14	268	43	186	49	64	303	38	99	178	71	145	32	64	44	36	82	63	29	110	64	40	49	35	113	58	69	32	45	108	159	57	43	44	45	97	34	58	140	25	197	207	15	73	245	65	43	73	33	173	48	90	99	38	229	292	25	29	31	49	18	37	86	82	82	67	46	25	50	186	57	38	50	20	36	49	79	19	38	35	33	48	39	69	45	158	38	96	22	79	41	167	62	39	167	28	29	40	45	124	35	66	30	263	37	50	187	72	50	73	60	97	57	58	84	66	69	143	177	160	50	277	244	51	164	61	35	334	153	53	32	16	261	74	119	28	40	107	11	34	36	77	152	31	57	32	71	37	254	11	48	19	64	28	37	27	39	57	41	39	158	107	72	167	58	30	98	64	64	151	55	129	74	115	225	68	70	83	25	65	19	76	37	39	27	99	54	18	29	55	13	8	97	356	17	30	168	29	55	136	99	152	110	42	25	52	36	98	9	48	63	29	57	36	59	49	45	69	38	111	87	180	56	60	136	52	33	39	126	86	117	20	27	102	47	134	59	71	92	38	43	23	92	72	47	20	74	45	87	38	24	5	180	85	47	31	38	93	231	187	142	128	48	46	29	62	46	94	45	9	60	20	21	63	109	134	149	28	51	166	52	56	225	53	67	74	91	31	49	64
Last week	196	335	452	573	523	410	701	196	1163	1790	577	235	672	554	404	422	790	988	5932	327	736	326	372	816	128	2115	357	1462	600	473	1929	228	761	1308	444	1163	317	430	348	419	518	404	298	725	396	437	510	352	913	480	536	165	484	842	1075	374	337	244	350	743	227	387	915	147	1443	1478	113	536	1803	454	296	504	223	1270	178	658	906	284	1704	2016	148	152	265	421	119	262	533	437	558	573	299	140	303	1369	472	259	394	145	303	364	525	127	243	407	318	386	235	506	412	1370	384	725	199	631	226	1132	429	340	1206	224	244	330	348	963	405	416	203	1514	297	294	1571	448	384	452	506	696	392	388	559	448	569	963	1130	1246	550	2050	1743	346	1236	352	252	2472	1152	534	221	184	1699	512	979	100	263	849	109	225	344	574	1078	232	434	299	621	297	1830	59	317	148	476	181	209	217	478	409	266	323	1136	700	591	1147	415	148	522	508	429	863	553	829	596	770	1492	509	465	603	181	473	128	577	255	240	249	666	324	213	290	525	66	88	771	2306	110	281	1311	210	378	1138	914	959	822	413	231	352	367	759	91	264	370	217	416	235	335	413	346	524	376	887	710	1158	402	378	1080	386	182	397	754	636	744	220	142	826	316	907	411	496	629	286	293	185	675	746	354	163	508	287	686	356	203	32	1260	634	277	234	297	824	1674	1269	1043	799	314	390	249	489	303	588	367	87	432	140	155	447	736	961	1062	227	404	1482	395	391	1630	419	376	428	610	278	282	517
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	11-04	11-03	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-28	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-12	10-13	11-02	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	11-09	11-02	--	10-04	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	11-02	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	11-01	10-11	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	11-03	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	11-02	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-03	11-02	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-12	--	--	11-03	11-02	--	10-13	--	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-26	10-28	--	--	--	11-09	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-13	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	11-03	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	11-01	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		63							29			77	72			625	67	163	99	55	235		140		55					71	333					58	70	159						44			131			32	117	154	53			62			23	76		305	146								182			60		252							37		81			32						55	75							71				31			71	31	56				65									43		52			33	59					30					152		86	540	254			65		529					611	61								99			38		391				51								35	61	68			608			256				82		101			95	50		41			196		64			44		67				237	247			183				115		104				69	144				82			24	70		82							118				183	134		31		127					177	46			95								47			138					167			134	58								91		22			320				137				38		31		65	48	130
Low between peaks			28									8			36	24			302		54	28		62				27					21							33	55									32			16	55					31																				91												8						17	17							23							21	7	23				17									11		14				21										20		23	154						58					136	19													54				14										6			70			58				19					22			12			62		22			19		14				49				26															11			11	28									30				46			9		58					33	15											7			27								35	21								19		5			77				21				9		11		18		15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-23 to 2021-01-29

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-22	2434	3850	7030	6321	7268	8786	9601	3392	20711	26395	14651	3491	15967	6765	6150	7072	10989	20030	82095	5611	15165	7732	4661	20804	3771	20627	5925	38821	9316	5071	23920	6329	12558	25683	4923	21777	5234	8173	5620	8687	14326	11570	4732	12407	5698	9073	7192	7463	12969	9849	11185	3213	7784	17048	17741	4825	3953	3558	6314	9291	2431	3719	11508	2207	31348	18775	2406	6355	26979	7073	5859	9224	3364	16121	2224	18144	8932	7076	21652	25526	2338	3463	4057	7208	5229	3519	14624	7489	7190	5688	4481	2563	6479	26722	11375	4532	5383	4444	4179	3704	7168	2603	3828	11695	6393	5525	2968	9163	4446	19652	6288	10054	3471	10906	4013	18454	6923	6367	17458	3688	7338	5471	5985	24357	5677	7111	3942	21717	4704	4773	20409	5898	6583	6060	5865	13265	7704	4319	5765	15402	10397	26758	14738	21040	7686	50070	28964	4131	19201	5238	5922	41638	15804	11365	3317	2105	44007	6085	23727	2082	2729	13793	1734	2745	5892	9714	16719	3794	4990	5456	20431	7089	31161	1787	4855	6811	5215	4409	7136	2513	8456	9965	3270	4447	14449	14417	5854	25032	6738	4119	19399	7895	8422	11085	7859	11745	10940	9012	29277	7536	4597	7781	3819	9145	2119	17593	5657	5229	4409	16298	5028	4668	5489	6671	1069	1553	18954	26920	4869	4150	20108	3948	6125	34912	11879	12448	11788	4759	4158	4648	5678	12445	1409	3634	5657	3926	4603	4020	4918	6280	4154	7079	9590	11213	12970	19906	6212	6744	13653	7322	4449	4686	16635	12573	16331	4107	3006	17727	4821	13722	12168	9088	14649	4073	4771	2449	8505	8045	4117	2478	10159	5439	15987	7275	3292	893	26238	13785	4978	4258	4210	19464	20123	22177	19130	14872	5957	6720	5060	6999	3625	6673	5102	1034	7443	3659	3422	5194	12145	24056	13427	4161	7118	20918	5688	6943	20388	4807	4293	4867	8496	5569	4271	10684
2021-01-23	2476	3916	7106	6432	7533	8870	9720	3436	20810	26510	14710	3534	16050	6876	6192	7157	11140	20110	83520	5654	15360	7790	4718	20980	3796	20910	5952	38960	9357	5265	24310	6354	12730	25930	5005	21870	5300	8205	5684	8770	14500	11640	4786	12460	5770	9157	7431	7495	13140	9940	11230	3248	7818	17210	18570	4884	4007	3604	6373	9440	2472	3849	11780	2231	32240	19080	2430	6466	27360	7162	5912	9264	3408	16590	2230	18350	9018	7138	21970	25930	2348	3500	4109	7293	5252	3588	14710	7613	7312	5908	4545	2574	6505	26830	11420	4586	5449	4480	4237	3894	7256	2635	3865	11770	6452	5590	3164	9199	4510	19930	6362	10200	3509	11040	4053	18530	6957	6436	17530	3737	7360	5533	6060	24440	5755	7142	4009	22020	4771	4839	20720	6097	6693	6154	5995	13320	7733	4395	5904	15490	10430	26920	14910	21320	7806	50440	29200	4198	19460	5321	5966	42050	16020	11410	3360	2157	44470	6164	23810	2099	2806	13960	1754	2788	5975	10010	16790	3809	5111	5503	20530	7140	31300	1798	4889	6837	5301	4444	7171	2552	8662	10030	3315	4559	14660	14530	5962	25230	6812	4149	19500	7996	8504	11410	7960	11900	11010	9160	29500	7616	4693	7843	3857	9214	2144	17770	5701	5276	4457	16400	5088	4715	5535	6717	1082	1572	19140	27500	4897	4199	20390	3990	6192	35220	12080	12640	12130	4869	4191	4668	5745	12570	1428	3682	5718	3966	4887	4067	4942	6352	4243	7313	9650	11380	13030	20170	6250	6802	13920	7393	4495	4760	16780	12850	16460	4153	3033	17880	4886	13900	12200	9120	14780	4129	4792	2486	8647	8154	4179	2508	10260	5495	16050	7345	3333	900	26350	13900	5036	4275	4262	19570	20490	22270	19350	15030	6013	6799	5081	7105	3696	6785	5164	1046	7535	3687	3457	5275	12290	24340	13640	4207	7148	21220	5765	6969	20860	4887	4374	4950	8611	5622	4345	10800
2021-01-24	2517	3983	7183	6546	7625	8954	9850	3482	20900	26630	14780	3577	16140	6987	6236	7243	11300	20190	84290	5699	15460	7847	4773	21090	3806	21220	5977	39150	9402	5313	24700	6380	12910	26200	5087	21950	5370	8237	5749	8857	14580	11710	4842	12510	5842	9242	7445	7526	13300	10020	11280	3283	7854	17370	19000	4941	4063	3650	6432	9600	2513	3981	12050	2255	32560	19390	2455	6580	27750	7251	5965	9302	3452	16760	2248	18430	9111	7201	22190	26330	2359	3538	4162	7378	5275	3650	14800	7735	7437	5983	4611	2584	6534	26940	11460	4641	5516	4518	4296	3938	7345	2667	3901	11850	6513	5655	3231	9235	4579	20200	6439	10360	3548	11170	4093	18610	6990	6506	17610	3788	7381	5597	6138	24520	5836	7172	4035	22310	4808	4905	21040	6291	6748	6249	6130	13380	7762	4473	6041	15570	10470	27080	15080	21610	7867	50710	29440	4267	19730	5401	6009	42460	16230	11450	3404	2178	44740	6232	23890	2115	2883	14130	1775	2832	6059	10150	16860	3824	5232	5549	20640	7192	31450	1810	4930	6862	5389	4480	7205	2592	8723	10100	3359	4607	14870	14640	6070	25430	6886	4178	19600	8098	8588	11590	8063	12060	11100	9310	29720	7696	4790	7905	3896	9281	2170	17850	5744	5322	4507	16500	5149	4765	5582	6765	1094	1591	19230	28080	4925	4250	20670	4033	6259	35390	12290	12830	12270	4922	4224	4688	5813	12710	1447	3730	5777	4006	5042	4114	4964	6423	4331	7402	9720	11550	13080	20440	6289	6856	14070	7466	4517	4837	16920	12940	16600	4200	3061	18030	4950	14070	12230	9153	14860	4165	4812	2523	8791	8270	4241	2539	10360	5551	16110	7415	3375	906	26460	14020	5094	4292	4315	19670	20860	22370	19580	15200	6069	6880	5103	7215	3767	6897	5226	1058	7595	3714	3492	5355	12440	24460	13850	4254	7177	21530	5843	6996	21320	4969	4456	5034	8727	5676	4423	10920
2021-01-25	2559	4049	7258	6657	7760	9037	9970	3525	21000	26750	14890	3620	16220	7098	6279	7327	11460	20260	85410	5743	15620	7903	4828	21260	3834	21520	6002	39430	9443	5402	25080	6407	13090	26450	5169	22030	5437	8270	5813	8941	14690	11770	4897	12570	5912	9326	7497	7555	13470	10100	11320	3317	7891	17530	19470	4998	4116	3695	6490	9750	2554	4116	12330	2278	33020	19700	2479	6691	28120	7339	6017	9339	3495	17060	2277	18560	9202	7263	22560	26730	2371	3575	4214	7462	5298	3711	14890	7860	7559	6128	4675	2595	6559	27050	11500	4695	5581	4554	4354	4021	7431	2699	3937	11930	6573	5720	3321	9272	4648	20480	6512	10500	3586	11300	4132	18700	7024	6575	17690	3837	7401	5659	6213	24600	5915	7201	4080	22610	4867	4970	21350	6497	6824	6341	6262	13430	7793	4550	6175	15650	10510	27240	15250	21880	7993	51140	29740	4334	20000	5480	6052	42860	16440	11490	3446	2220	45060	6344	23970	2131	2962	14300	1795	2874	6143	10330	16940	3841	5351	5593	20740	7243	31590	1821	4994	6887	5475	4515	7238	2631	8842	10160	3404	4678	15080	14750	6176	25620	6959	4208	19690	8199	8669	11810	8164	12210	11200	9450	29930	7775	4886	7968	3933	9348	2195	17970	5787	5368	4555	16610	5209	4812	5627	6814	1107	1610	19360	28660	4952	4299	20950	4076	6324	35630	12490	13020	12450	5007	4256	4710	5881	12830	1466	3776	5837	4047	5224	4161	4987	6493	4422	7519	9780	11710	13130	20700	6330	6911	14290	7536	4567	4912	17060	13080	16730	4246	3087	18170	5014	14240	12260	9191	14990	4226	4834	2560	8934	8384	4302	2568	10450	5606	16170	7485	3415	913	26560	14140	5151	4310	4367	19840	21230	22470	19800	15350	6125	6959	5124	7322	3837	7008	5287	1070	7688	3742	3527	5435	12590	24660	14060	4300	7206	21840	5919	7025	21790	5049	4537	5116	8841	5730	4505	11040
2021-01-26	2601	4116	7333	6771	7889	9121	10090	3571	21090	26870	14980	3664	16300	7210	6322	7412	11610	20330	86470	5788	15760	7959	4882	21420	3858	21820	6025	39700	9483	5506	25470	6434	13270	26710	5251	22110	5507	8300	5878	9029	14780	11840	4953	12620	5984	9411	7497	7583	13630	10180	11370	3352	7929	17690	19960	5054	4169	3740	6548	9900	2595	4258	12620	2302	33360	20010	2503	6805	28510	7428	6070	9373	3539	17370	2306	18680	9295	7326	22850	27130	2383	3613	4267	7548	5321	3770	14970	7986	7683	6247	4741	2605	6585	27150	11530	4750	5647	4592	4414	4126	7518	2732	3972	12010	6634	5785	3397	9306	4719	20760	6587	10650	3625	11430	4171	18780	7057	6645	17770	3887	7421	5722	6290	24670	5996	7228	4110	22900	4928	5037	21660	6706	6903	6435	6399	13490	7823	4628	6307	15730	10540	27400	15430	22170	8119	51520	30080	4402	20270	5558	6094	43270	16650	11530	3489	2268	45380	6442	24040	2147	3041	14470	1815	2918	6229	10450	17010	3858	5473	5637	20840	7295	31730	1832	5046	6913	5562	4550	7271	2671	8944	10230	3449	4761	15290	14860	6283	25810	7032	4236	19790	8301	8752	12020	8266	12370	11320	9600	30150	7854	4984	8029	3972	9414	2220	18070	5830	5413	4605	16740	5269	4861	5673	6863	1119	1629	19510	29240	4980	4349	21230	4118	6390	35830	12700	13200	12650	5094	4288	4732	5950	12950	1486	3823	5896	4088	5401	4208	5006	6563	4513	7639	9840	11880	13170	20970	6371	6964	14510	7608	4595	4990	17200	13220	16860	4293	3114	18320	5079	14420	12290	9226	15120	4281	4854	2598	9081	8501	4363	2599	10550	5661	16220	7556	3455	919	26660	14260	5209	4326	4419	19990	21610	22550	20030	15510	6180	7040	5145	7432	3909	7119	5349	1082	7772	3769	3562	5515	12740	24850	14280	4346	7234	22140	5998	7052	22270	5131	4619	5200	8957	5784	4589	11160
2021-01-27	2644	4183	7409	6885	7908	9205	10220	3616	21180	26980	15080	3708	16390	7322	6366	7498	11770	20410	87480	5833	15880	8015	4936	21550	3879	22130	6048	39950	9524	5506	25860	6460	13450	26970	5333	22180	5577	8330	5944	9116	14870	11910	5009	12680	6055	9497	7497	7611	13800	10260	11410	3387	7967	17860	20260	5110	4222	3786	6606	10060	2637	4404	12910	2326	33470	20330	2528	6920	28900	7518	6122	9407	3583	17490	2331	18800	9390	7390	23110	27540	2395	3651	4320	7634	5344	3829	15060	8114	7809	6356	4807	2615	6610	27260	11560	4805	5713	4630	4474	4175	7606	2765	4008	12090	6695	5850	3446	9340	4791	21040	6663	10800	3664	11560	4211	18870	7089	6716	17850	3939	7440	5785	6367	24740	6078	7255	4154	23200	4980	5103	21980	6923	6974	6529	6538	13540	7853	4708	6438	15820	10580	27560	15600	22460	8211	51860	30340	4470	20540	5638	6136	43690	16870	11570	3533	2304	45670	6532	24110	2163	3122	14640	1836	2961	6315	10580	17080	3875	5597	5681	20950	7347	31870	1844	5096	6938	5651	4585	7305	2710	9026	10290	3494	4803	15500	14970	6390	26000	7106	4265	19890	8403	8836	12220	8369	12530	11400	9740	30360	7933	5084	8091	4010	9481	2245	18170	5873	5459	4654	16840	5329	4911	5720	6913	1132	1648	19630	29840	5008	4400	21510	4161	6457	36000	12910	13400	12730	5164	4321	4754	6019	13080	1505	3870	5955	4129	5492	4255	5026	6633	4606	7702	9910	12050	13220	21240	6412	7017	14680	7680	4623	5069	17350	13280	16990	4340	3141	18470	5144	14590	12320	9262	15230	4337	4875	2637	9231	8620	4425	2630	10650	5717	16280	7627	3496	926	26760	14380	5268	4343	4472	20120	21990	22650	20250	15680	6236	7121	5166	7543	3982	7232	5411	1093	7843	3797	3598	5596	12890	25010	14490	4393	7262	22460	6076	7080	22750	5213	4701	5284	9073	5839	4674	11280
2021-01-28	2687	4251	7485	7000	7973	9290	10340	3662	21270	27100	15160	3752	16470	7436	6410	7584	11930	20480	88340	5878	15990	8071	4990	21680	3895	22440	6071	40130	9566	5530	26260	6487	13640	27230	5416	22260	5648	8361	6011	9204	14940	11970	5066	12730	6127	9584	7497	7640	13970	10340	11460	3422	8005	18020	20690	5166	4276	3832	6665	10210	2678	4556	13210	2350	33760	20650	2553	7035	29300	7608	6175	9442	3628	17710	2356	18880	9486	7453	23330	27940	2407	3689	4374	7721	5368	3888	15150	8244	7935	6440	4874	2624	6636	27360	11600	4860	5780	4668	4534	4227	7694	2798	4043	12170	6757	5916	3521	9375	4864	21320	6740	10960	3704	11700	4250	18950	7122	6787	17930	3990	7460	5849	6445	24810	6160	7283	4184	23500	5031	5170	22300	7147	7036	6625	6679	13590	7883	4789	6570	15900	10610	27720	15770	22750	8290	52100	30610	4540	20810	5719	6178	44100	17080	11610	3577	2332	45940	6600	24180	2179	3205	14810	1857	3005	6402	10720	17150	3892	5725	5725	21050	7398	32010	1855	5142	6964	5739	4621	7338	2751	9104	10360	3540	4848	15710	15080	6499	26200	7180	4295	19980	8507	8920	12420	8473	12680	11480	9890	30570	8012	5187	8154	4049	9547	2271	18260	5916	5504	4704	16930	5390	4960	5766	6963	1144	1667	19750	30450	5036	4451	21800	4205	6524	36140	13130	13590	12870	5230	4354	4776	6089	13200	1525	3918	6014	4170	5660	4302	5046	6703	4702	7785	9970	12220	13270	21510	6453	7071	14830	7753	4642	5148	17490	13380	17120	4388	3168	18620	5210	14770	12350	9297	15320	4377	4896	2675	9383	8740	4487	2660	10750	5773	16330	7698	3537	933	26860	14500	5326	4359	4525	20220	22390	22740	20480	15840	6292	7202	5187	7655	4056	7345	5474	1105	7899	3825	3634	5678	13040	25140	14710	4441	7290	22770	6156	7108	23240	5296	4784	5369	9190	5893	4762	11400
2021-01-29	2730	4320	7562	7117	8017	9375	10470	3708	21360	27220	15230	3797	16560	7550	6453	7671	12090	20550	89230	5924	16090	8127	5045	21790	3910	22750	6094	40300	9607	5604	26650	6514	13820	27500	5500	22340	5719	8391	6078	9293	15020	12040	5123	12780	6200	9670	7497	7668	14140	10420	11500	3458	8044	18190	20780	5223	4330	3878	6723	10370	2720	4714	13520	2374	33900	20970	2578	7152	29690	7699	6228	9477	3673	17900	2392	18970	9582	7517	23570	28360	2419	3728	4428	7808	5391	3949	15230	8376	8063	6527	4941	2634	6662	27460	11630	4916	5847	4707	4595	4280	7783	2831	4079	12250	6818	5982	3549	9410	4938	21610	6816	11110	3743	11830	4289	19040	7155	6859	18010	4042	7479	5914	6524	24880	6242	7310	4216	23800	5070	5238	22620	7378	7088	6721	6821	13650	7914	4872	6702	15980	10650	27880	15950	23040	8359	52360	30840	4609	21090	5800	6220	44520	17300	11650	3621	2350	46210	6673	24250	2195	3291	14980	1878	3050	6489	10780	17230	3909	5855	5769	21150	7450	32160	1867	5185	6989	5829	4656	7371	2791	9154	10420	3587	4877	15920	15200	6609	26390	7254	4324	20080	8611	9004	12570	8578	12840	11560	10040	30790	8092	5291	8217	4088	9614	2296	18340	5960	5550	4755	17020	5451	5010	5813	7014	1157	1687	19850	31070	5065	4502	22090	4248	6591	36280	13350	13780	12990	5288	4387	4798	6161	13320	1544	3966	6074	4211	5683	4350	5066	6774	4799	7834	10040	12390	13320	21790	6495	7124	14970	7826	4671	5227	17630	13450	17250	4436	3195	18770	5276	14950	12380	9333	15400	4416	4916	2714	9537	8862	4550	2691	10850	5829	16390	7770	3579	939	26960	14620	5385	4376	4578	20310	22790	22830	20710	16000	6348	7284	5208	7768	4132	7459	5537	1117	7957	3852	3670	5760	13190	25280	14930	4488	7318	23090	6235	7136	23750	5379	4869	5454	9308	5948	4851	11520

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-23 to 2021-01-29

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-22	2434	3850	7030	6321	7268	8786	9601	3392	20711	26395	14651	3491	15967	6765	6150	7072	10989	20030	82095	5611	15165	7732	4661	20804	3771	20627	5925	38821	9316	5071	23920	6329	12558	25683	4923	21777	5234	8173	5620	8687	14326	11570	4732	12407	5698	9073	7192	7463	12969	9849	11185	3213	7784	17048	17741	4825	3953	3558	6314	9291	2431	3719	11508	2207	31348	18775	2406	6355	26979	7073	5859	9224	3364	16121	2224	18144	8932	7076	21652	25526	2338	3463	4057	7208	5229	3519	14624	7489	7190	5688	4481	2563	6479	26722	11375	4532	5383	4444	4179	3704	7168	2603	3828	11695	6393	5525	2968	9163	4446	19652	6288	10054	3471	10906	4013	18454	6923	6367	17458	3688	7338	5471	5985	24357	5677	7111	3942	21717	4704	4773	20409	5898	6583	6060	5865	13265	7704	4319	5765	15402	10397	26758	14738	21040	7686	50070	28964	4131	19201	5238	5922	41638	15804	11365	3317	2105	44007	6085	23727	2082	2729	13793	1734	2745	5892	9714	16719	3794	4990	5456	20431	7089	31161	1787	4855	6811	5215	4409	7136	2513	8456	9965	3270	4447	14449	14417	5854	25032	6738	4119	19399	7895	8422	11085	7859	11745	10940	9012	29277	7536	4597	7781	3819	9145	2119	17593	5657	5229	4409	16298	5028	4668	5489	6671	1069	1553	18954	26920	4869	4150	20108	3948	6125	34912	11879	12448	11788	4759	4158	4648	5678	12445	1409	3634	5657	3926	4603	4020	4918	6280	4154	7079	9590	11213	12970	19906	6212	6744	13653	7322	4449	4686	16635	12573	16331	4107	3006	17727	4821	13722	12168	9088	14649	4073	4771	2449	8505	8045	4117	2478	10159	5439	15987	7275	3292	893	26238	13785	4978	4258	4210	19464	20123	22177	19130	14872	5957	6720	5060	6999	3625	6673	5102	1034	7443	3659	3422	5194	12145	24056	13427	4161	7118	20918	5688	6943	20388	4807	4293	4867	8496	5569	4271	10684
2021-01-23	2466	3900	7091	6381	7350	8848	9710	3422	20860	26610	14730	3521	16040	6856	6198	7107	11110	20150	82940	5656	15270	7783	4709	20930	3786	20940	5977	39030	9388	5129	24180	6349	12640	25880	4970	21930	5275	8227	5665	8725	14400	11630	4773	12510	5748	9123	7292	7514	13100	9920	11260	3233	7834	17170	17980	4884	4010	3597	6364	9400	2459	3781	11670	2228	31650	19020	2421	6428	27210	7141	5895	9288	3396	16360	2252	18240	9060	7117	21890	25780	2358	3479	4097	7271	5248	3560	14700	7555	7278	5742	4521	2584	6522	26900	11430	4572	5437	4465	4219	3754	7227	2616	3861	11750	6429	5577	3028	9231	4500	19850	6342	10160	3500	10990	4049	18590	6979	6410	17610	3709	7371	5525	6036	24490	5711	7169	3979	21960	4751	4808	20630	5977	6646	6100	5929	13360	7748	4375	5856	15470	10470	26890	14920	21140	7744	50340	29180	4174	19380	5286	5961	41970	15970	11420	3347	2130	44240	6162	23860	2099	2770	13920	1744	2776	5933	9830	16870	3822	5052	5494	20530	7134	31370	1795	4896	6830	5284	4439	7168	2522	8540	10020	3312	4489	14600	14520	5948	25210	6789	4145	19480	7960	8482	11210	7946	11870	11030	9123	29470	7602	4661	7857	3847	9210	2138	17680	5685	5268	4439	16390	5080	4696	5525	6736	1082	1562	19060	27280	4884	4188	20300	3979	6177	35090	12030	12570	11940	4811	4187	4688	5722	12570	1423	3672	5709	3956	4675	4054	4964	6335	4200	7170	9641	11340	13050	20020	6267	6794	13800	7375	4475	4741	16730	12690	16430	4128	3026	17840	4864	13860	12220	9148	14730	4107	4810	2461	8605	8130	4170	2501	10230	5480	16070	7327	3317	897	26390	13850	5005	4285	4249	19560	20380	22340	19250	15000	6008	6780	5092	7045	3670	6757	5152	1046	7503	3681	3443	5247	12220	24180	13570	4195	7168	21060	5735	6992	20650	4856	4335	4927	8590	5610	4322	10760
2021-01-24	2497	3955	7152	6465	7411	8916	9810	3457	21000	26850	14810	3559	16110	6955	6254	7157	11250	20290	83870	5708	15370	7833	4757	21050	3799	21300	6031	39230	9465	5187	24490	6369	12760	26040	5032	22070	5328	8283	5718	8792	14490	11690	4822	12610	5809	9190	7373	7574	13240	9990	11340	3256	7892	17310	18160	4942	4053	3637	6412	9520	2497	3844	11790	2249	31870	19290	2440	6496	27480	7212	5935	9360	3431	16550	2272	18310	9210	7168	22150	26070	2379	3501	4132	7332	5269	3596	14780	7612	7379	5805	4572	2604	6568	27110	11470	4612	5507	4498	4267	3785	7325	2635	3891	11820	6480	5637	3069	9306	4568	20070	6408	10280	3535	11090	4081	18750	7041	6467	17770	3740	7411	5583	6098	24630	5765	7228	4012	22210	4798	4843	20910	6035	6712	6167	6000	13480	7809	4437	5944	15540	10540	27020	15120	21290	7800	50610	29420	4223	19570	5338	6000	42430	16150	11500	3379	2158	44510	6244	23990	2114	2815	14070	1764	2810	5988	9910	17020	3857	5123	5536	20630	7183	31630	1804	4936	6854	5356	4473	7198	2551	8625	10080	3352	4528	14780	14620	6054	25390	6847	4170	19570	8035	8551	11310	8056	12000	11120	9251	29700	7677	4740	7939	3880	9284	2159	17760	5715	5311	4474	16480	5135	4737	5567	6810	1091	1577	19170	27630	4902	4231	20540	4013	6230	35270	12220	12730	12070	4870	4220	4732	5772	12690	1439	3710	5763	3988	4730	4092	4996	6398	4247	7240	9697	11480	13150	20180	6327	6840	13980	7438	4500	4813	16850	12780	16540	4159	3043	17980	4913	14000	12280	9214	14820	4143	4851	2485	8715	8246	4223	2527	10310	5523	16170	7385	3347	901	26560	13940	5045	4316	4287	19670	20650	22510	19410	15140	6056	6850	5133	7108	3711	6850	5204	1059	7558	3708	3466	5303	12320	24290	13750	4230	7222	21270	5802	7041	20910	4921	4387	4999	8689	5659	4374	10850
2021-01-25	2533	4012	7233	6579	7509	8983	9930	3492	21220	27170	14900	3600	16190	7066	6311	7247	11390	20430	84950	5763	15510	7891	4829	21210	3821	21740	6087	39470	9583	5282	24830	6390	12920	26330	5104	22240	5388	8339	5782	8884	14590	11750	4870	12720	5875	9269	7470	7644	13380	10070	11420	3289	7954	17470	18340	4999	4113	3677	6474	9630	2539	3914	11950	2270	32170	19560	2462	6596	27830	7288	5989	9432	3470	16780	2295	18440	9390	7221	22480	26480	2400	3539	4189	7411	5291	3634	14850	7692	7492	5948	4632	2625	6613	27320	11500	4660	5579	4534	4318	3844	7412	2661	3932	11890	6536	5703	3119	9382	4643	20290	6479	10410	3570	11210	4115	18930	7103	6540	17970	3775	7452	5643	6168	24780	5871	7286	4050	22480	4852	4896	21190	6121	6786	6246	6083	13590	7880	4502	6046	15610	10620	27190	15330	21590	7917	51000	29720	4278	19810	5395	6043	42910	16350	11600	3412	2192	44830	6343	24170	2129	2862	14210	1783	2846	6048	10020	17180	3892	5209	5593	20740	7231	31980	1814	4993	6880	5439	4506	7228	2603	8743	10140	3393	4583	14970	14720	6159	25580	6925	4195	19660	8141	8632	11460	8167	12160	11230	9399	29920	7766	4834	8054	3914	9363	2179	17870	5749	5358	4526	16600	5190	4778	5614	6899	1104	1598	19300	28030	4928	4275	20790	4048	6283	35470	12410	12900	12220	4945	4253	4792	5842	12810	1458	3750	5825	4028	4812	4133	5051	6475	4310	7335	9759	11620	13260	20400	6393	6890	14190	7506	4546	4886	16980	12900	16660	4206	3070	18120	4980	14160	12350	9284	14940	4199	4892	2526	8839	8377	4277	2556	10400	5565	16300	7446	3402	907	26800	14050	5097	4358	4342	19820	20940	22740	19620	15270	6106	6920	5173	7223	3763	6948	5271	1073	7645	3736	3498	5388	12460	24460	13960	4273	7283	21600	5885	7118	21190	5015	4460	5086	8788	5709	4426	10950
2021-01-26	2570	4068	7315	6679	7605	9050	10040	3527	21450	27480	14980	3639	16270	7172	6368	7329	11520	20580	86010	5817	15660	7949	4891	21360	3841	22230	6142	39720	9686	5373	25190	6416	13090	26600	5183	22400	5454	8395	5848	8970	14680	11810	4921	12840	5944	9349	7563	7719	13520	10150	11510	3320	8017	17630	18530	5057	4181	3716	6538	9750	2577	3988	12120	2291	32420	19830	2483	6707	28180	7365	6037	9503	3510	17000	2318	18560	9550	7274	22770	26880	2421	3569	4247	7487	5312	3675	14930	7774	7597	6077	4694	2645	6658	27520	11540	4711	5648	4570	4368	3934	7487	2690	3968	11960	6591	5768	3167	9457	4728	20520	6548	10530	3606	11320	4151	19110	7165	6609	18160	3819	7492	5703	6234	24940	5951	7344	4086	22740	4907	4955	21480	6205	6864	6327	6167	13710	7945	4567	6139	15680	10690	27360	15530	21850	8037	51370	30060	4331	20050	5451	6086	43390	16540	11700	3445	2231	45140	6440	24350	2144	2908	14360	1805	2882	6104	10130	17330	3927	5298	5640	20850	7280	32320	1823	5043	6904	5521	4540	7258	2647	8853	10210	3433	4649	15160	14820	6266	25770	6997	4220	19740	8238	8708	11610	8279	12310	11340	9542	30150	7849	4919	8162	3948	9443	2200	17970	5783	5402	4576	16730	5246	4820	5659	6986	1116	1616	19440	28460	4950	4318	21050	4084	6335	35660	12610	13070	12380	5021	4290	4858	5911	12930	1476	3790	5884	4069	4892	4173	5106	6556	4374	7434	9818	11770	13360	20660	6460	6939	14400	7573	4576	4960	17120	13020	16780	4247	3099	18260	5042	14320	12420	9355	15060	4250	4933	2575	8963	8502	4331	2584	10490	5607	16430	7508	3441	913	27040	14160	5147	4394	4397	19980	21220	22960	19830	15410	6159	6990	5214	7329	3821	7047	5334	1086	7725	3764	3526	5468	12610	24620	14160	4322	7341	21900	5959	7186	21510	5097	4524	5171	8888	5762	4479	11050
2021-01-27	2609	4135	7386	6790	7685	9117	10160	3562	21650	27770	15070	3682	16340	7279	6425	7431	11660	20720	87110	5870	15790	8006	4949	21510	3861	22590	6197	39950	9774	5464	25600	6451	13300	26830	5271	22560	5534	8452	5909	9063	14780	11880	4967	12950	6016	9444	7641	7777	13660	10230	11590	3357	8072	17780	18690	5116	4230	3757	6594	9870	2619	4062	12270	2312	32640	20110	2508	6803	28560	7441	6087	9574	3547	17200	2341	18680	9740	7341	23050	27330	2442	3611	4303	7556	5334	3716	15000	7864	7723	6214	4758	2665	6702	27730	11580	4761	5724	4611	4428	4021	7578	2727	4006	12050	6650	5838	3212	9532	4825	20740	6618	10650	3642	11460	4193	19290	7227	6680	18360	3872	7533	5763	6300	25090	6053	7402	4124	23010	4960	5028	21810	6270	6943	6435	6286	13820	8045	4627	6229	15750	10770	27550	15770	22190	8133	51740	30340	4396	20280	5514	6126	43930	16760	11790	3479	2267	45440	6536	24500	2159	2955	14510	1823	2925	6179	10210	17480	3962	5374	5686	20960	7329	32680	1836	5092	6930	5611	4574	7288	2690	8975	10280	3476	4703	15360	14930	6373	25980	7078	4245	19830	8349	8785	11760	8392	12490	11430	9694	30370	7929	5014	8256	3989	9520	2221	18090	5817	5446	4621	16840	5302	4863	5704	7064	1128	1635	19600	28930	4976	4362	21350	4127	6389	35860	12810	13260	12520	5095	4326	4905	5977	13050	1495	3829	5941	4110	4949	4212	5147	6632	4434	7533	9878	11940	13460	20960	6525	6987	14610	7641	4608	5044	17270	13120	16900	4299	3126	18410	5099	14460	12480	9422	15170	4305	4973	2617	9082	8653	4385	2613	10580	5649	16560	7570	3488	921	27290	14290	5208	4430	4444	20100	21520	23180	20080	15570	6209	7061	5254	7449	3881	7161	5396	1098	7797	3792	3556	5540	12790	24780	14370	4364	7402	22280	6046	7252	21810	5193	4606	5262	8989	5818	4533	11180
2021-01-28	2643	4192	7455	6909	7735	9186	10270	3598	21820	28020	15150	3717	16420	7397	6482	7524	11810	20870	88190	5927	15920	8064	5002	21660	3878	23300	6254	40130	9860	5534	26020	6477	13450	27050	5353	22710	5600	8510	5978	9160	14870	11940	5014	13060	6089	9514	7713	7833	13800	10300	11670	3390	8127	17930	18870	5175	4283	3797	6652	9990	2661	4138	12410	2334	32830	20390	2528	6887	28880	7513	6142	9647	3586	17420	2362	18780	9890	7395	23340	27780	2464	3659	4351	7626	5356	3754	15080	7950	7851	6328	4816	2686	6749	27940	11620	4807	5794	4648	4479	4073	7656	2753	4042	12120	6714	5903	3259	9609	4898	20970	6685	10780	3678	11580	4228	19460	7290	6737	18540	3909	7574	5824	6367	25220	6132	7461	4164	23280	5013	5080	22100	6332	7020	6533	6368	13940	8111	4704	6326	15820	10850	27670	15980	22550	8224	51990	30610	4452	20500	5576	6168	44510	16960	11880	3512	2303	45770	6624	24650	2175	3004	14660	1846	2961	6238	10280	17640	3998	5441	5743	21070	7379	32980	1846	5133	6954	5699	4608	7319	2740	9088	10340	3514	4758	15580	15030	6483	26170	7154	4270	19920	8464	8864	11920	8507	12660	11530	9855	30590	8005	5096	8351	4025	9593	2242	18190	5855	5492	4664	16920	5359	4905	5749	7143	1141	1660	19740	29320	4997	4406	21610	4163	6443	36040	13010	13460	12650	5170	4358	4947	6045	13180	1514	3867	5991	4153	5010	4253	5185	6703	4487	7628	9932	12090	13570	21170	6590	7031	14840	7706	4639	5121	17420	13210	17020	4350	3148	18550	5150	14590	12540	9494	15280	4350	5015	2657	9192	8780	4441	2640	10670	5692	16670	7632	3527	927	27480	14400	5268	4462	4487	20180	21810	23370	20290	15710	6260	7133	5295	7549	3939	7262	5454	1109	7855	3820	3583	5609	12960	24920	14610	4404	7461	22610	6116	7310	22070	5280	4691	5342	9092	5869	4588	11280
2021-01-29	2674	4247	7517	6986	7801	9255	10380	3634	21970	28230	15230	3752	16520	7504	6540	7621	11950	21010	89280	5981	16040	8122	5062	21790	3895	23730	6311	40320	9925	5660	26370	6494	13590	27340	5421	22850	5656	8568	6037	9242	14970	12000	5060	13170	6165	9584	7789	7887	13950	10380	11760	3416	8181	18060	19020	5234	4335	3838	6702	10110	2700	4212	12550	2355	33070	20680	2548	6961	29150	7583	6194	9720	3619	17630	2384	18870	10120	7450	23620	28120	2485	3692	4389	7690	5378	3790	15160	8027	7962	6427	4872	2707	6794	28160	11660	4850	5867	4685	4530	4153	7720	2775	4076	12190	6768	5967	3297	9686	4974	21190	6751	10910	3715	11680	4259	19640	7354	6797	18690	3942	7615	5886	6429	25360	6229	7521	4201	23530	5066	5123	22400	6384	7093	6601	6453	14060	8171	4782	6417	15890	10920	27820	16190	22750	8313	52270	30850	4505	20690	5630	6209	44990	17140	11940	3542	2333	46100	6716	24760	2190	3053	14810	1865	2997	6295	10360	17800	4035	5524	5805	21180	7429	33230	1855	5174	6978	5781	4643	7349	2770	9188	10390	3554	4811	15770	15130	6594	26350	7219	4296	20020	8565	8933	12070	8624	12780	11620	10000	30820	8077	5204	8437	4060	9656	2263	18290	5892	5536	4702	17010	5416	4947	5793	7212	1153	1678	19860	29680	5017	4451	21860	4199	6498	36220	13220	13660	12810	5245	4390	4983	6106	13310	1532	3908	6042	4193	5048	4290	5217	6769	4540	7711	9988	12240	13670	21350	6651	7074	15020	7783	4670	5198	17560	13310	17130	4398	3171	18690	5192	14720	12600	9558	15370	4392	5057	2700	9316	8912	4497	2666	10750	5736	16760	7687	3569	932	27650	14480	5315	4491	4523	20260	22100	23550	20450	15840	6307	7206	5337	7632	3988	7360	5505	1123	7907	3849	3607	5668	13070	25060	14780	4438	7515	22840	6182	7362	22320	5387	4748	5428	9196	5920	4644	11380

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-22