COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-26

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-13	12-27	12-22	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-13	2021-01-03	11-15	2021-01-01	12-21	10-29	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-21	12-26	12-19	12-30	12-27	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-21	12-19	12-31	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-30	12-26	12-26	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	11-02	10-14	12-28	12-07	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-21	12-21	11-02	12-21	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-19	2021-01-06	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	2021-01-13	10-30	12-26	12-21	--	12-22	12-21	12-26	12-18	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-19	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-21	12-14	12-29	12-21	12-29	12-22	2021-01-04	12-25	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-22	10-28	12-21	10-27	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-27	2021-01-03	12-21	12-26	12-21	11-29	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-28	2021-01-09	12-22	11-04	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-26	12-27	12-29	12-30	11-04	12-26	12-08	12-21	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-29	11-03	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	12-21	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-27	--	2021-01-06	12-28	2021-01-12	12-30	12-21	2021-01-11	2021-01-06	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	2021-01-01	12-13	10-17	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-26	12-29	12-29	12-30	12-30	11-03	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-18	09-29	2021-01-03	12-25	12-28	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-29	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-18	12-21	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-16	12-27	12-26	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-07	12-21	12-29	12-30	12-22	12-30	2021-01-03	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-18	12-12	12-18	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	10-28	12-29	12-21	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-25	12-20	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-27	12-30	12-28	2021-01-03	12-21	12-30	12-27	12-26
Peak daily increment	59	86	95	172	107	172	179	75	469	568	191	56	325	128	92	105	232	433	1225	76	154	64	58	156	49	474	142	441	228	104	514	163	298	312	105	508	90	192	61	117	121	141	99	257	85	149	168	175	310	89	262	50	196	246	285	60	90	72	65	238	51	91	282	34	364	287	37	175	584	154	69	189	70	244	29	249	182	118	319	527	57	49	76	160	110	50	225	99	158	143	107	53	143	584	276	92	73	53	91	71	125	52	38	129	78	92		181	90	440	121	211	58	203	57	402	175	98	335	100	110	135	122	477	98	156	45	434	57	112	440	137	82	129	223	278	145	70	98	296	201	360	300	425	106	371	284	105	438	70	113	703	268	201	92	36	365	91	422	29	45	296	49	62	143	117	370	78	102	61	121	85	702	23	50	159	103	51	108	59	119	122	41	55	269	155	120	219	90	43	119	125	103		114	193	103	169	627	81	81	170	51	189	38	126	139	55	96	199	75	84	58	173	15	25	157	444	86	82	383	62	134	435	204	241	165	98	113	104	67	176	25	42	84	82	95	79	110	78	65	100	111	247	297	441	130	154	214	90	57	116	174	132	194	66	42	200	103	317	189	179	121	54	107	44	137	316	90	43	140	131	369	140	48	11	561	149	91	106	85	258	320	446	392	223	77	138	121	160	63	151	88	22	82	42	66	112	216	218	256	83	148	411	104	139	369	104	111	94	175	68	67	180
Days since peak	29	27	36	36	36	49	36	35	31	36	105	30	35	24	15	28	36	36	27	30	30	28	13	23	72	25	36	89	36	29	30	36	30	30	36	36	31	38	27	30	30	84	36	35	30	49	30	36	36	22	35	30	35	35	36	22	36	38	26	35	30	30	36	36	35	27	31	31	31	36	36	36	36	24	85	104	29	50	30	30	35	28	36	36	85	36	87	30	28	29	36	34	35	36	36	38	20	36	36	36	36	30	13	88	31	36		35	36	31	39	30	35	36	36	36	35	30	38	35	35	44	36	43	28	36	28	35	22	32	32	36	25	29	30	35	30	29	35	90	36	91	30	36	21	30	23	36	31	36	58	30	36	35	36	23	29	17	35	83	22	36	36	36	36	36	35	31	30	28	27	83	31	49	36	93	31	36	83	36	28	84	36	23	32	36	24	28	36	36	32	35	30		20	29	14	27	36	15	20	36	30	36	30	29	44	25	44	101	28	31	35	31	28	28	27	27	84	36	30	30	39	119	23	32	29	36	35	36	29	30	28	22	35	78	39	36	37	23	29	30	35	36	41	30	31	36	23	32	87	35	29	36	86	36	36	36	35	36	50	36	28	27	35	27	23	30	36	32	36	39	45	39	27	36	35	30	35	36	36	90	28	36	39	32	36	36	36	36	30	32	37	44	29	50	35	32	37	36	30	35	36	28	31	35	30	27	29	23	36	27	30	31
Last total	2551	4038	7267	6625	7555	8963	9938	3473	21229	27149	14988	3601	16284	7007	6334	7277	11408	20451	84457	5754	15576	7907	4817	21246	3839	21530	6089	39611	9598	5346	24812	6409	12916	26407	5138	22336	5390	8374	5785	8866	14609	11802	4881	12722	5891	9309	7429	7648	13378	10077	11479	3281	8024	17496	18286	4983	4117	3652	6481	9673	2515	3901	12082	2247	32103	19415	2458	6619	27737	7291	6021	9420	3460	16654	2297	18492	9407	7192	22429	26453	2438	3534	4192	7411	5330	3645	14937	7690	7443	5920	4655	2644	6611	27391	11588	4646	5566	4509	4333	3884	7377	2681	3963	11918	6580	5680	3133	9392	4644	20138	6461	10390	3566	11263	4140	18936	7100	6514	17998	3773	7541	5617	6140	24826	5834	7344	4071	22507	4833	4922	21130	6098	6738	6300	6100	13637	7915	4495	6029	15685	10734	27334	15242	21659	7967	51129	29656	4300	19744	5394	6042	42722	16395	11619	3413	2185	44981	6292	24206	2144	2829	14189	1785	2838	6046	10025	17220	3901	5173	5619	20773	7232	32011	1817	5007	6890	5404	4540	7235	2586	8682	10189	3365	4574	14947	14707	6135	25646	6961	4204	19742	8111	8605	11598	8055	12193	11241	9419	29922	7776	4770	8089	3923	9407	2168	17943	5803	5337	4521	16692	5172	4788	5613	6895	1099	1581	19382	27879	4940	4295	20737	4061	6277	35751	12248	12941	12167	4987	4262	4804	5853	12857	1456	3759	5871	4018	4782	4115	5042	6498	4319	7370	9790	11683	13281	20425	6402	6925	14195	7472	4541	4884	17070	12925	16674	4208	3073	18206	4940	14108	12359	9314	15026	4219	4927	2517	8842	8399	4350	2546	10376	5559	16316	7443	3418	910	26744	14112	5091	4374	4352	19880	20841	22733	19598	15270	6076	6897	5204	7214	3805	6955	5279	1065	7625	3727	3511	5393	12520	24517	13926	4259	7309	21523	5834	7139	21046	4992	4470	5115	8803	5713	4438	10917
Last daily increment	28	53	80	68	70	49	102	34	126	154	84	31	74	57	57	60	127	75	718	43	109	59	49	116	18	213	40	213	64	60	195	21	74	196	67	122	48	35	47	61	69	67	32	65	66	56	65	49	123	69	67	19	52	137	138	41	42	30	40	83	29	76	146	6	214	184	15	76	194	67	34	38	26	166	12	111	129	21	259	200	20	21	33	53	29	50	74	65	56	54	56	21	20	158	45	35	52	7	39	42	48	14	47	82	51	38	41	54	48	134	44	89	25	104	37	120	45	40	118	25	50	45	32	99	42	68	37	170	29	42	174	52	43	58	56	88	41	60	68	58	107	160	124	148	76	297	231	30	127	70	26	258	172	65	18	23	253	49	121	19	17	90	14	23	42	89	131	25	38	38	91	48	205	10	40	15	55	21	31	21	61	59	31	47	166	76	85	153	65	25	86	51	60	168	51	110	49	105	121	75	62	102	21	64	13	98	29	28	16	93	36	29	35	55	6	10	103	320	19	51	146	16	35	168	117	128	139	60	26	53	44	107	11	31	65	18	67	33	30	75	36	86	47	137	75	124	50	53	129	52	28	48	96	103	90	36	20	126	26	95	38	55	111	41	43	20	96	93	75	12	53	35	81	45	41	4	105	74	42	41	49	110	254	124	112	100	32	50	33	64	79	90	31	6	39	20	33	43	77	117	121	18	48	157	40	64	192	52	37	84	100	32	44	56
Last week	177	288	363	450	435	298	533	137	815	1241	505	161	511	430	274	318	617	689	4022	235	618	258	265	669	98	1539	259	1174	426	422	1462	140	535	1100	356	881	219	317	260	272	421	356	215	522	310	329	354	279	670	382	429	118	322	641	839	280	260	173	261	593	146	299	870	82	1201	1055	78	412	1244	353	249	330	160	905	148	531	744	205	1226	1499	140	115	202	319	136	202	491	348	435	359	253	132	221	1021	338	195	281	90	234	288	333	107	216	316	257	263	236	361	312	840	244	532	137	527	204	770	297	231	899	130	261	221	242	716	235	365	190	1244	218	251	1138	340	254	365	374	557	308	292	416	405	482	849	856	929	398	1636	1182	266	862	269	203	1786	919	390	155	119	1454	349	755	96	171	633	80	159	236	504	826	163	305	256	506	223	1338	46	250	119	301	183	165	137	344	336	175	217	810	480	447	959	347	138	505	351	294	802	326	708	446	617	1039	370	301	491	158	399	91	517	210	171	170	591	240	166	192	346	57	49	656	1623	93	202	984	175	258	1058	570	767	619	323	158	238	274	627	64	203	335	161	312	162	242	316	268	443	291	735	512	838	293	291	842	245	140	294	652	538	557	154	115	695	217	650	293	364	544	218	245	106	518	531	344	105	356	205	509	261	168	24	828	501	208	169	222	633	1178	934	760	627	214	279	206	337	274	457	274	52	297	102	130	347	588	720	788	158	290	958	243	303	1107	292	301	374	477	213	258	364
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-18	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-12	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	09-17	--	10-03	11-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-02	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	--	--	10-18	--	10-11	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	10-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment					63							29			77	72			95		163	98	55	235		136		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			32	117		53			62				29		293	144								165			57														32						55	75					41		71				25			71	31	56				65							48		43		52				59										152		86	541	254					529					611	61								71					391				51									58	68			608			256				82		102			95	43		41			196		64			44		67				237	231			183				113						66	141							24	71		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138					163			134	58								91		22			320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks					26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	62		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106	71								53			18														8						17	17					11		23				12			22	7	23				18							12		11		14				21										20		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14									16	6			70			58				19		40			25	13		12			62		22			19		14				49	91			26				34						22	57							11	27		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27					75			35	21								19		5			77				21				9		11		18		15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-27 to 2021-02-02

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-26	2551	4038	7267	6625	7555	8963	9938	3473	21229	27149	14988	3601	16284	7007	6334	7277	11408	20451	84457	5754	15576	7907	4817	21246	3839	21530	6089	39611	9598	5346	24812	6409	12916	26407	5138	22336	5390	8374	5785	8866	14609	11802	4881	12722	5891	9309	7429	7648	13378	10077	11479	3281	8024	17496	18286	4983	4117	3652	6481	9673	2515	3901	12082	2247	32103	19415	2458	6619	27737	7291	6021	9420	3460	16654	2297	18492	9407	7192	22429	26453	2438	3534	4192	7411	5330	3645	14937	7690	7443	5920	4655	2644	6611	27391	11588	4646	5566	4509	4333	3884	7377	2681	3963	11918	6580	5680	3133	9392	4644	20138	6461	10390	3566	11263	4140	18936	7100	6514	17998	3773	7541	5617	6140	24826	5834	7344	4071	22507	4833	4922	21130	6098	6738	6300	6100	13637	7915	4495	6029	15685	10734	27334	15242	21659	7967	51129	29656	4300	19744	5394	6042	42722	16395	11619	3413	2185	44981	6292	24206	2144	2829	14189	1785	2838	6046	10025	17220	3901	5173	5619	20773	7232	32011	1817	5007	6890	5404	4540	7235	2586	8682	10189	3365	4574	14947	14707	6135	25646	6961	4204	19742	8111	8605	11598	8055	12193	11241	9419	29922	7776	4770	8089	3923	9407	2168	17943	5803	5337	4521	16692	5172	4788	5613	6895	1099	1581	19382	27879	4940	4295	20737	4061	6277	35751	12248	12941	12167	4987	4262	4804	5853	12857	1456	3759	5871	4018	4782	4115	5042	6498	4319	7370	9790	11683	13281	20425	6402	6925	14195	7472	4541	4884	17070	12925	16674	4208	3073	18206	4940	14108	12359	9314	15026	4219	4927	2517	8842	8399	4350	2546	10376	5559	16316	7443	3418	910	26744	14112	5091	4374	4352	19880	20841	22733	19598	15270	6076	6897	5204	7214	3805	6955	5279	1065	7625	3727	3511	5393	12520	24517	13926	4259	7309	21523	5834	7139	21046	4992	4470	5115	8803	5713	4438	10917
2021-01-27	2585	4094	7389	6659	7635	9026	10050	3480	21730	27470	15070	3637	16580	7097	6387	7335	11460	20840	85010	5861	15800	7958	4868	21490	3870	21770	6216	39920	9690	5425	25050	6433	12950	26900	5207	22430	5427	8460	5881	8906	14800	11860	4904	12770	6019	9424	7500	7668	13520	10150	11520	3292	8274	17680	18340	5074	4173	3689	6533	9870	2548	3959	12150	2265	32390	19900	2493	6717	27890	7364	6066	9650	3504	17070	2319	18710	9660	7206	22940	26560	2467	3563	4235	7478	5352	3718	15020	7758	7603	6199	4709	2678	6715	28140	11680	4666	5694	4518	4351	3989	7559	2728	4000	11990	6633	5732	3345	9562	4768	20230	6483	10500	3597	11310	4175	19290	7448	6567	18110	3793	7613	5642	6160	25060	6039	7499	4138	22660	4934	4975	21300	6167	6900	6330	6191	13680	7970	4611	6168	15790	10840	27490	15430	21750	8156	51650	30140	4352	19840	5444	6109	42970	16580	11680	3440	2260	45540	6456	24620	2160	2910	14330	1812	2871	6079	10160	17680	3995	5237	5707	20870	7327	32840	1826	5074	6912	5599	4575	7264	2616	8763	10250	3425	4669	15120	14920	6228	25820	7087	4228	19830	8192	8671	11900	8313	12330	11400	9550	30760	7917	4917	8156	3949	9484	2187	18120	5931	5376	4557	16830	5222	4816	5652	6923	1110	1591	19610	28660	4960	4339	20820	4096	6323	36070	12660	13000	12440	5130	4293	4920	5955	12980	1472	3823	5928	4050	4892	4183	5147	6620	4421	7513	9840	11830	13660	20610	6445	6961	14540	7529	4568	4947	17090	13020	16780	4222	3095	18470	4981	14160	12540	9531	15200	4308	4948	2611	8949	8494	4408	2559	10400	5584	16420	7606	3455	915	27260	14260	5138	4488	4396	20060	21370	23230	19690	15380	6120	6921	5241	7246	3856	7034	5400	1076	7769	3734	3558	5456	12610	24870	14040	4299	7349	21690	5879	7380	21240	5063	4494	5191	8901	5757	4485	10980
2021-01-28	2619	4149	7444	6691	7712	9088	10150	3485	21880	27580	15150	3673	16680	7188	6437	7387	11510	20960	85220	5918	15890	8008	4919	21610	3883	21870	6265	40090	9780	5503	25270	6459	12970	27090	5275	22530	5458	8540	5934	8939	14860	11920	4926	12820	6068	9459	7567	7687	13650	10220	11560	3301	8339	17860	18400	5129	4228	3726	6586	10050	2581	4016	12210	2283	32660	20090	2525	6809	28020	7438	6111	9720	3544	17250	2341	18780	9820	7217	23150	26660	2497	3591	4277	7545	5373	3754	15100	7825	7761	6261	4762	2711	6744	28350	11690	4682	5747	4526	4369	4039	7591	2769	4035	12050	6685	5785	3423	9617	4829	20320	6502	10600	3627	11340	4210	19370	7555	6620	18220	3810	7683	5665	6180	25290	6080	7562	4166	22800	4980	5025	21440	6233	6951	6356	6280	13720	8023	4672	6245	15890	10950	27630	15610	21820	8231	51890	30370	4404	19920	5494	6148	43190	16760	11700	3467	2284	45790	6518	24780	2175	2945	14470	1838	2904	6106	10250	17860	4029	5301	5762	20970	7364	33080	1835	5118	6932	5651	4608	7293	2646	8844	10310	3460	4711	15290	14990	6322	26000	7146	4252	19920	8273	8735	12060	8391	12470	11490	9670	31060	7978	4978	8217	3972	9559	2205	18200	5974	5416	4590	16920	5270	4843	5690	6951	1120	1599	19730	28960	4980	4381	20900	4131	6369	36220	12770	13060	12550	5189	4323	4961	6011	13100	1487	3854	5982	4083	4953	4246	5197	6675	4468	7590	9900	11970	13790	20790	6487	6997	14700	7586	4596	5009	17100	13120	16890	4234	3117	18570	5018	14200	12590	9618	15280	4343	4969	2630	9056	8592	4463	2573	10430	5605	16420	7657	3491	920	27360	14400	5185	4511	4438	20170	21580	23400	19780	15470	6164	6942	5243	7275	3905	7105	5446	1087	7817	3741	3601	5515	12680	24980	14050	4338	7388	21850	5919	7462	21270	5135	4515	5265	8996	5802	4531	11040
2021-01-29	2653	4204	7497	6724	7791	9149	10250	3492	22020	27670	15230	3709	16790	7278	6487	7442	11560	21070	85380	5948	15980	8058	4970	21710	3896	21890	6312	40260	9870	5581	25490	6484	13000	27260	5342	22630	5492	8622	5975	8975	14920	11980	4949	12870	6121	9493	7633	7707	13790	10290	11600	3311	8389	18030	18450	5181	4284	3762	6637	10230	2614	4072	12260	2302	32930	20270	2557	6901	28150	7509	6156	9790	3585	17400	2363	18850	9920	7228	23360	26780	2525	3620	4320	7610	5394	3787	15180	7892	7920	6319	4815	2743	6785	28570	11700	4700	5797	4533	4386	4079	7646	2810	4070	12120	6736	5837	3500	9676	4873	20410	6523	10710	3658	11380	4245	19490	7662	6672	18330	3826	7753	5689	6200	25520	6116	7628	4195	22950	5012	5075	21600	6298	6992	6382	6369	13760	8076	4718	6306	15990	11050	27780	15790	21890	8298	52120	30590	4457	20000	5543	6182	43420	16940	11700	3493	2300	46020	6582	24910	2191	2982	14600	1863	2936	6136	10320	18040	4060	5365	5794	21070	7394	33320	1844	5158	6954	5711	4641	7321	2675	8924	10370	3496	4746	15460	15070	6414	26170	7198	4276	20000	8353	8799	12240	8453	12600	11560	9800	31370	8033	5046	8281	3996	9633	2224	18270	6029	5454	4625	17010	5319	4870	5728	6978	1131	1608	19830	29280	4999	4423	20970	4165	6413	36360	12870	13120	12660	5236	4352	5006	6041	13220	1502	3894	6037	4116	5004	4309	5248	6721	4510	7657	9950	12110	13920	20960	6529	7033	14820	7641	4623	5072	17130	13220	17000	4247	3139	18660	5056	14250	12650	9692	15360	4377	4990	2649	9161	8690	4519	2586	10450	5627	16430	7690	3528	925	27490	14540	5230	4539	4481	20250	21790	23560	19860	15570	6208	6963	5244	7302	3953	7179	5485	1098	7866	3749	3644	5576	12760	25100	14060	4376	7427	22000	5962	7540	21300	5206	4537	5339	9092	5845	4578	11100
2021-01-30	2687	4259	7553	6754	7868	9211	10360	3498	22170	27750	15310	3745	16890	7370	6535	7494	11600	21180	85440	5982	16070	8107	5020	21810	3912	21890	6349	40410	9960	5658	25710	6510	13020	27410	5410	22730	5522	8702	6011	9008	14980	12040	4971	12920	6160	9553	7698	7727	13920	10360	11640	3319	8454	18210	18510	5215	4339	3799	6689	10410	2646	4129	12310	2320	33200	20420	2588	6992	28270	7580	6200	9850	3625	17530	2385	18930	10010	7238	23540	26890	2554	3648	4361	7676	5414	3814	15260	7958	8079	6363	4868	2774	6818	28770	11700	4715	5852	4540	4402	4109	7693	2851	4105	12180	6787	5889	3588	9729	4901	20490	6541	10810	3688	11420	4279	19580	7753	6724	18440	3841	7821	5710	6220	25750	6147	7693	4223	23090	5045	5125	21750	6363	7030	6406	6459	13800	8129	4758	6347	16090	11160	27920	15970	21950	8349	52320	30760	4509	20070	5592	6206	43640	17120	11700	3518	2316	46200	6630	25050	2206	3003	14740	1887	2969	6162	10390	18200	4091	5430	5838	21170	7420	33550	1853	5189	6975	5758	4674	7349	2706	9004	10430	3516	4775	15620	15120	6507	26340	7247	4299	20080	8435	8863	12370	8499	12740	11630	9930	31670	8078	5087	8341	4019	9706	2242	18350	6082	5493	4659	17090	5368	4896	5767	7004	1141	1616	19910	29520	5018	4464	21040	4199	6458	36530	12950	13170	12760	5267	4380	5036	6078	13330	1518	3916	6091	4150	5039	4372	5272	6762	4545	7715	10000	12240	14030	21130	6570	7068	14960	7696	4649	5135	17140	13310	17110	4258	3160	18750	5092	14290	12700	9768	15420	4407	5011	2665	9267	8788	4574	2600	10480	5647	16440	7745	3564	930	27600	14680	5276	4554	4522	20340	21970	23690	19940	15670	6252	6981	5249	7326	4000	7249	5526	1109	7907	3757	3686	5634	12840	25190	14090	4415	7464	22160	6002	7601	21340	5277	4555	5412	9186	5890	4623	11160
2021-01-31	2721	4314	7601	6784	7945	9273	10460	3503	22260	27830	15390	3781	16950	7462	6584	7547	11640	21290	85440	6012	16150	8157	5071	21900	3921	21920	6377	40580	10040	5735	25930	6536	13040	27540	5478	22830	5553	8782	6043	9041	15050	12100	4993	12970	6198	9584	7763	7746	14060	10440	11680	3327	8487	18380	18560	5248	4394	3836	6741	10590	2679	4186	12360	2339	33460	20540	2620	7082	28400	7652	6245	9890	3665	17650	2408	19000	10080	7248	23670	26990	2583	3677	4403	7743	5434	3837	15340	8024	8238	6422	4920	2806	6830	28950	11700	4730	5898	4547	4418	4140	7763	2891	4139	12240	6838	5941	3624	9778	4947	20570	6559	10910	3718	11450	4313	19670	7822	6777	18540	3857	7890	5732	6239	25970	6176	7741	4248	23230	5074	5175	21890	6427	7066	6429	6549	13840	8181	4794	6404	16190	11260	28060	16160	22020	8397	52560	30900	4562	20150	5641	6232	43860	17300	11700	3544	2327	46400	6664	25160	2221	3017	14880	1912	3003	6189	10450	18320	4114	5495	5864	21260	7451	33730	1862	5225	6996	5786	4706	7377	2736	9085	10480	3539	4796	15790	15190	6601	26520	7286	4323	20170	8516	8927	12430	8547	12870	11700	10050	31900	8130	5120	8402	4042	9780	2261	18410	6123	5533	4692	17160	5417	4922	5805	7030	1151	1624	20010	29680	5037	4505	21110	4234	6502	36680	13020	13220	12830	5317	4408	5068	6108	13450	1533	3944	6144	4184	5076	4434	5319	6809	4578	7766	10050	12380	14100	21310	6612	7104	15070	7752	4676	5198	17190	13400	17220	4269	3182	18870	5129	14330	12740	9826	15500	4434	5032	2675	9373	8887	4629	2613	10500	5667	16440	7776	3600	935	27690	14820	5322	4572	4564	20420	22110	23830	20020	15760	6295	6999	5249	7350	4047	7320	5556	1121	7957	3764	3729	5693	12920	25310	14090	4453	7502	22310	6042	7648	21350	5349	4574	5486	9280	5934	4669	11220
2021-02-01	2755	4370	7655	6814	8023	9335	10560	3508	22400	27970	15470	3817	17050	7555	6632	7599	11680	21430	85590	6051	16280	8206	5122	22030	3939	21990	6434	40820	10130	5813	26150	6562	13060	27750	5547	22930	5584	8863	6086	9073	15140	12160	5015	13020	6247	9658	7828	7766	14200	10510	11720	3336	8572	18550	18610	5300	4450	3873	6793	10770	2713	4243	12400	2357	33730	20760	2652	7173	28520	7725	6289	9960	3705	17820	2430	19090	10260	7258	23930	27110	2612	3705	4444	7809	5454	3862	15420	8091	8397	6501	4973	2837	6868	29210	11710	4746	5938	4554	4435	4209	7822	2932	4174	12310	6890	5994	3724	9839	5015	20660	6578	11010	3748	11480	4348	19800	7947	6830	18650	3872	7959	5754	6258	26200	6240	7806	4282	23380	5111	5225	22040	6492	7113	6452	6640	13880	8234	4839	6507	16290	11370	28210	16340	22080	8491	52870	31090	4615	20220	5690	6276	44080	17480	11730	3570	2358	46660	6750	25320	2236	3067	15020	1937	3036	6216	10530	18500	4153	5561	5912	21360	7493	33970	1871	5268	7017	5844	4739	7405	2766	9166	10540	3570	4839	15960	15290	6695	26690	7354	4346	20250	8598	8991	12590	8619	13010	11790	10180	32170	8203	5185	8463	4066	9853	2279	18510	6182	5572	4726	17280	5466	4948	5844	7057	1161	1632	20130	29990	5057	4546	21180	4268	6547	36880	13150	13270	12920	5388	4437	5121	6165	13570	1549	3986	6198	4218	5127	4497	5372	6874	4640	7849	10110	12520	14240	21480	6653	7140	15250	7807	4703	5261	17230	13500	17330	4280	3203	18990	5165	14370	12810	9926	15600	4479	5053	2698	9479	8987	4684	2627	10520	5686	16490	7827	3636	940	27820	14960	5368	4607	4606	20540	22310	24010	20090	15860	6340	7018	5266	7374	4095	7391	5616	1132	8018	3772	3772	5752	12990	25430	14150	4492	7540	22460	6082	7731	21390	5421	4593	5560	9375	5978	4715	11270
2021-02-02	2789	4425	7737	6845	8101	9398	10670	3513	22580	28180	15550	3853	17140	7649	6681	7652	11720	21560	86330	6100	16390	8256	5173	22160	3958	22230	6491	41050	10220	5891	26370	6588	13080	27960	5616	23030	5615	8944	6137	9106	15210	12220	5037	13070	6315	9726	7893	7785	14330	10580	11760	3344	8645	18730	18660	5353	4506	3910	6845	10950	2746	4301	12450	2376	34000	20970	2683	7265	28640	7798	6334	10020	3745	18000	2452	19200	10410	7267	24190	27220	2642	3734	4486	7876	5474	3909	15500	8158	8557	6578	5026	2869	6906	29430	11790	4761	5992	4561	4451	4259	7878	2972	4209	12370	6941	6047	3724	9911	5073	20740	6596	11110	3779	11520	4382	19960	8002	6883	18760	3887	8028	5775	6278	26420	6291	7884	4316	23520	5151	5275	22190	6557	7166	6475	6732	13910	8287	4894	6580	16390	11470	28350	16530	22140	8580	53170	31350	4668	20300	5740	6308	44310	17660	11810	3595	2386	46940	6817	25470	2252	3096	15160	1962	3070	6243	10620	18650	4189	5627	5952	21460	7541	34240	1879	5309	7038	5909	4772	7433	2797	9247	10600	3601	4891	16130	15380	6790	26860	7418	4370	20340	8680	9055	12760	8687	13150	11860	10310	32340	8275	5247	8524	4089	9926	2298	18600	6216	5612	4760	17380	5516	4974	5883	7083	1172	1641	20240	30340	5076	4588	21250	4303	6592	37050	13300	13330	13060	5452	4465	5180	6213	13690	1565	4022	6253	4252	5192	4560	5412	6950	4682	7937	10160	12660	14340	21660	6695	7175	15400	7863	4730	5325	17340	13590	17440	4291	3225	19110	5202	14410	12870	9999	15720	4522	5074	2732	9587	9088	4740	2640	10550	5706	16600	7876	3673	945	28000	15100	5415	4650	4648	20660	22560	24180	20170	15960	6384	7036	5309	7398	4143	7462	5658	1143	8071	3780	3815	5811	13070	25570	14310	4531	7578	22620	6123	7801	21600	5494	4611	5634	9470	6023	4761	11330

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-27 to 2021-02-02

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-01-26	2551	4038	7267	6625	7555	8963	9938	3473	21229	27149	14988	3601	16284	7007	6334	7277	11408	20451	84457	5754	15576	7907	4817	21246	3839	21530	6089	39611	9598	5346	24812	6409	12916	26407	5138	22336	5390	8374	5785	8866	14609	11802	4881	12722	5891	9309	7429	7648	13378	10077	11479	3281	8024	17496	18286	4983	4117	3652	6481	9673	2515	3901	12082	2247	32103	19415	2458	6619	27737	7291	6021	9420	3460	16654	2297	18492	9407	7192	22429	26453	2438	3534	4192	7411	5330	3645	14937	7690	7443	5920	4655	2644	6611	27391	11588	4646	5566	4509	4333	3884	7377	2681	3963	11918	6580	5680	3133	9392	4644	20138	6461	10390	3566	11263	4140	18936	7100	6514	17998	3773	7541	5617	6140	24826	5834	7344	4071	22507	4833	4922	21130	6098	6738	6300	6100	13637	7915	4495	6029	15685	10734	27334	15242	21659	7967	51129	29656	4300	19744	5394	6042	42722	16395	11619	3413	2185	44981	6292	24206	2144	2829	14189	1785	2838	6046	10025	17220	3901	5173	5619	20773	7232	32011	1817	5007	6890	5404	4540	7235	2586	8682	10189	3365	4574	14947	14707	6135	25646	6961	4204	19742	8111	8605	11598	8055	12193	11241	9419	29922	7776	4770	8089	3923	9407	2168	17943	5803	5337	4521	16692	5172	4788	5613	6895	1099	1581	19382	27879	4940	4295	20737	4061	6277	35751	12248	12941	12167	4987	4262	4804	5853	12857	1456	3759	5871	4018	4782	4115	5042	6498	4319	7370	9790	11683	13281	20425	6402	6925	14195	7472	4541	4884	17070	12925	16674	4208	3073	18206	4940	14108	12359	9314	15026	4219	4927	2517	8842	8399	4350	2546	10376	5559	16316	7443	3418	910	26744	14112	5091	4374	4352	19880	20841	22733	19598	15270	6076	6897	5204	7214	3805	6955	5279	1065	7625	3727	3511	5393	12520	24517	13926	4259	7309	21523	5834	7139	21046	4992	4470	5115	8803	5713	4438	10917
2021-01-27	2583	4085	7324	6686	7623	9012	10030	3491	21400	27360	15070	3623	16380	7053	6384	7331	11510	20570	84990	5796	15680	7950	4862	21360	3856	21720	6137	39840	9670	5415	25040	6425	13000	26590	5197	22460	5425	8422	5831	8904	14680	11860	4915	12800	5946	9370	7486	7687	13490	10130	11540	3296	8102	17620	18420	5034	4145	3681	6516	9770	2533	3950	12220	2260	32330	19600	2472	6689	27930	7353	6054	9489	3486	16800	2317	18580	9540	7216	22650	26670	2458	3556	4231	7466	5354	3691	15010	7741	7510	5990	4699	2663	6650	27610	11640	4675	5624	4523	4370	3943	7434	2703	4001	11980	6623	5717	3195	9460	4701	20250	6505	10470	3592	11350	4170	19070	7177	6552	18130	3790	7589	5653	6176	24950	5895	7412	4108	22690	4871	4965	21300	6151	6789	6359	6157	13710	7959	4552	6099	15750	10820	27480	15380	21800	8045	51430	29880	4341	19860	5437	6073	42960	16560	11670	3439	2215	45220	6360	24360	2160	2857	14290	1798	2863	6082	10120	17390	3934	5213	5660	20860	7276	32300	1826	5052	6911	5474	4571	7262	2607	8717	10250	3401	4618	15090	14800	6213	25810	7024	4225	19820	8166	8658	11760	8128	12310	11320	9510	30140	7849	4831	8163	3946	9472	2182	18030	5843	5362	4549	16790	5212	4814	5647	6944	1108	1585	19490	28180	4960	4335	20880	4088	6317	35930	12370	13040	12280	5052	4287	4855	5907	12940	1469	3798	5932	4039	4842	4145	5085	6553	4367	7458	9840	11810	13390	20550	6450	6971	14310	7515	4560	4938	17170	13020	16770	4237	3093	18340	4969	14200	12420	9390	15130	4267	4962	2532	8915	8486	4408	2563	10430	5589	16410	7502	3443	915	26930	14200	5126	4416	4393	19990	21060	22910	19710	15360	6111	6940	5237	7271	3852	7024	5341	1075	7679	3745	3534	5448	12610	24640	14030	4289	7356	21650	5874	7216	21200	5032	4512	5168	8889	5748	4482	10970
2021-01-28	2612	4130	7380	6763	7693	9064	10130	3509	21520	27550	15160	3647	16440	7139	6429	7383	11610	20660	85710	5846	15770	7996	4913	21480	3870	22000	6173	40030	9750	5485	25280	6445	13080	26780	5257	22580	5453	8473	5884	8945	14750	11920	4951	12870	5997	9410	7538	7730	13610	10210	11590	3313	8147	17730	18550	5087	4193	3713	6566	9860	2558	3997	12350	2278	32520	19800	2484	6752	28110	7411	6096	9542	3514	16990	2339	18650	9680	7246	22870	26940	2479	3578	4268	7524	5372	3726	15080	7802	7587	6047	4743	2679	6678	27760	11690	4707	5676	4545	4405	3994	7476	2720	4038	12030	6668	5765	3227	9516	4757	20370	6548	10540	3618	11430	4203	19170	7223	6592	18280	3805	7625	5687	6216	25060	5933	7464	4138	22870	4915	5004	21470	6197	6840	6411	6212	13780	8001	4609	6173	15810	10890	27590	15520	21980	8113	51660	30110	4383	19970	5483	6110	43240	16720	11740	3461	2238	45460	6425	24490	2175	2894	14410	1814	2893	6114	10210	17520	3957	5268	5712	20960	7314	32500	1834	5095	6932	5533	4602	7289	2639	8776	10310	3435	4659	15240	14890	6299	25980	7083	4246	19900	8238	8713	11870	8207	12430	11410	9620	30310	7912	4893	8243	3970	9537	2197	18110	5871	5394	4581	16880	5257	4838	5685	6996	1118	1596	19610	28460	4974	4371	21030	4115	6357	36090	12480	13170	12390	5110	4310	4892	5961	13050	1482	3832	5983	4070	4904	4171	5129	6607	4414	7533	9890	11930	13470	20670	6492	7013	14460	7563	4580	4999	17270	13110	16860	4266	3111	18450	5003	14300	12470	9444	15210	4303	4993	2552	9003	8578	4458	2582	10490	5635	16470	7543	3465	919	27050	14280	5165	4441	4433	20090	21280	23070	19820	15450	6153	6988	5266	7334	3895	7091	5392	1087	7723	3764	3554	5505	12700	24740	14160	4321	7396	21800	5917	7268	21380	5084	4558	5227	8967	5789	4523	11010
2021-01-29	2641	4175	7436	6834	7757	9117	10220	3527	21630	27730	15240	3672	16520	7220	6474	7437	11710	20750	86400	5887	15860	8039	4961	21590	3885	22230	6209	40210	9810	5555	25530	6468	13150	26950	5318	22700	5483	8524	5930	8982	14820	11970	4986	12940	6051	9454	7578	7776	13740	10270	11640	3331	8182	17840	18680	5140	4237	3746	6606	9950	2585	4044	12460	2296	32700	19990	2497	6812	28290	7466	6136	9596	3540	17150	2364	18720	9790	7277	23090	27190	2500	3602	4301	7580	5390	3761	15150	7867	7666	6099	4788	2694	6708	27900	11740	4737	5728	4566	4441	4037	7535	2738	4073	12080	6711	5812	3260	9573	4805	20480	6591	10620	3644	11510	4236	19290	7274	6630	18420	3819	7662	5722	6256	25170	5978	7518	4168	23050	4954	5041	21650	6243	6887	6465	6267	13860	8041	4661	6243	15870	10960	27720	15660	22120	8170	51910	30330	4425	20070	5529	6146	43510	16870	11790	3482	2255	45690	6493	24590	2190	2932	14520	1828	2923	6146	10280	17650	3980	5323	5747	21050	7351	32700	1842	5136	6953	5596	4633	7316	2668	8821	10360	3471	4697	15390	14970	6386	26140	7139	4267	19980	8308	8767	12000	8280	12560	11490	9730	30470	7974	4961	8326	3994	9591	2212	18180	5903	5429	4613	16980	5301	4860	5723	7045	1127	1605	19710	28750	4990	4406	21190	4142	6396	36250	12590	13290	12510	5165	4332	4932	5997	13150	1495	3872	6039	4101	4959	4196	5173	6650	4459	7597	9940	12050	13560	20790	6534	7054	14600	7614	4605	5060	17370	13200	16960	4293	3134	18560	5035	14390	12520	9492	15290	4338	5023	2572	9096	8670	4509	2601	10550	5682	16530	7578	3490	924	27180	14350	5205	4468	4467	20170	21490	23220	19920	15540	6195	7036	5294	7393	3938	7159	5439	1098	7768	3784	3574	5555	12790	24840	14280	4348	7433	21930	5961	7320	21560	5145	4603	5291	9046	5830	4565	11050
2021-01-30	2669	4221	7491	6895	7813	9170	10310	3545	21740	27880	15320	3692	16580	7292	6519	7483	11810	20840	87020	5929	15960	8079	4998	21690	3901	22440	6243	40390	9860	5620	25770	6486	13210	27100	5376	22820	5515	8575	5973	9018	14880	12020	5022	13010	6097	9497	7623	7819	13860	10320	11690	3344	8217	17950	18810	5185	4278	3779	6642	10050	2604	4091	12570	2314	32850	20150	2510	6866	28440	7521	6173	9648	3566	17290	2386	18790	9890	7307	23300	27440	2521	3622	4335	7632	5408	3789	15220	7920	7749	6131	4830	2710	6736	28040	11780	4763	5783	4587	4476	4065	7583	2754	4104	12130	6752	5859	3295	9629	4845	20600	6634	10690	3670	11590	4269	19390	7318	6670	18550	3832	7698	5756	6296	25290	5998	7571	4198	23220	4990	5071	21830	6288	6931	6514	6323	13930	8080	4711	6285	15930	11030	27840	15810	22260	8212	52120	30490	4467	20160	5574	6176	43780	17030	11820	3503	2272	45890	6551	24700	2204	2960	14630	1841	2953	6177	10360	17780	4002	5372	5788	21150	7384	32880	1850	5168	6972	5652	4664	7343	2689	8879	10410	3501	4727	15540	15050	6472	26310	7189	4287	20050	8370	8817	12100	8341	12680	11570	9840	30630	8030	5013	8383	4019	9640	2227	18250	5934	5462	4642	17050	5346	4881	5759	7095	1137	1613	19790	28990	5003	4442	21340	4169	6435	36420	12680	13400	12610	5208	4356	4960	6035	13250	1507	3902	6085	4128	4999	4220	5203	6692	4499	7651	9990	12170	13630	20880	6575	7096	14730	7663	4627	5122	17470	13280	17050	4319	3152	18670	5065	14480	12560	9538	15360	4369	5054	2588	9179	8762	4559	2620	10610	5729	16580	7616	3507	928	27290	14420	5243	4489	4499	20250	21690	23360	20010	15630	6235	7083	5323	7444	3981	7227	5485	1110	7805	3804	3592	5592	12880	24920	14400	4375	7469	22040	6000	7364	21720	5198	4648	5348	9124	5871	4606	11090
2021-01-31	2695	4267	7546	6963	7862	9223	10400	3563	21820	28000	15400	3720	16640	7357	6565	7530	11910	20920	87670	5968	16050	8124	5034	21800	3913	22660	6276	40580	9920	5682	26010	6504	13270	27260	5430	22940	5543	8627	6014	9051	14960	12080	5054	13080	6149	9531	7663	7854	13990	10380	11740	3357	8248	18050	18940	5231	4326	3812	6679	10140	2631	4139	12690	2332	32990	20340	2522	6916	28580	7576	6212	9699	3591	17440	2406	18860	10000	7336	23500	27660	2543	3643	4360	7682	5427	3813	15290	7966	7822	6190	4870	2726	6762	28180	11820	4786	5838	4609	4511	4093	7658	2769	4133	12180	6795	5903	3325	9684	4900	20710	6676	10760	3696	11670	4302	19490	7355	6706	18670	3845	7734	5791	6335	25400	6034	7622	4228	23390	5027	5097	22000	6334	6982	6565	6379	14000	8115	4757	6336	15990	11100	27950	15950	22370	8262	52360	30660	4509	20240	5618	6206	44060	17180	11860	3526	2289	46140	6607	24780	2219	2988	14750	1855	2983	6208	10440	17910	4024	5422	5813	21240	7419	33030	1858	5203	6991	5700	4695	7371	2711	8947	10470	3531	4757	15690	15130	6560	26470	7229	4308	20130	8421	8868	12170	8417	12800	11650	9930	30790	8092	5069	8432	4043	9685	2242	18330	5961	5501	4665	17130	5391	4903	5796	7137	1145	1621	19900	29180	5016	4477	21500	4196	6474	36590	12790	13510	12720	5267	4381	4989	6067	13350	1520	3936	6128	4153	5036	4245	5231	6746	4541	7703	10040	12300	13690	20970	6617	7137	14870	7710	4649	5184	17570	13360	17140	4344	3165	18780	5089	14560	12600	9585	15450	4401	5084	2607	9271	8855	4610	2638	10660	5778	16630	7652	3542	932	27380	14490	5279	4509	4523	20320	21890	23470	20090	15710	6274	7131	5351	7488	4020	7296	5520	1122	7857	3824	3608	5623	12950	25030	14520	4401	7507	22170	6039	7396	21850	5235	4693	5397	9204	5912	4647	11130
2021-02-01	2724	4314	7615	7068	7965	9277	10500	3582	21920	28200	15480	3761	16720	7463	6611	7598	12020	21030	88570	6021	16190	8180	5104	21950	3932	22990	6314	40810	9990	5770	26270	6525	13350	27530	5490	23060	5601	8679	6070	9108	15060	12140	5088	13160	6212	9585	7716	7897	14110	10460	11790	3376	8297	18170	19080	5287	4394	3845	6740	10230	2671	4187	12820	2351	33190	20590	2535	6976	28760	7629	6266	9754	3617	17680	2429	18970	10170	7367	23800	27960	2564	3671	4405	7739	5445	3845	15360	8043	7902	6306	4921	2742	6791	28330	11870	4817	5904	4631	4548	4162	7742	2792	4171	12250	6849	5954	3362	9742	4968	20830	6724	10840	3722	11750	4335	19620	7411	6762	18820	3862	7770	5827	6377	25500	6135	7676	4265	23560	5077	5131	22190	6382	7048	6617	6437	14070	8157	4818	6454	16050	11170	28130	16100	22560	8372	52720	30920	4552	20370	5664	6251	44340	17350	11930	3549	2328	46450	6695	24890	2234	3039	14870	1869	3014	6241	10520	18040	4048	5495	5870	21340	7467	33230	1866	5253	7013	5777	4726	7398	2735	9040	10520	3566	4807	15840	15230	6650	26650	7308	4329	20210	8524	8931	12280	8519	12930	11750	10080	30950	8173	5150	8520	4068	9751	2257	18440	5999	5547	4694	17240	5437	4930	5835	7189	1156	1638	20030	29570	5035	4513	21650	4224	6514	36790	12960	13670	12850	5345	4406	5034	6132	13480	1534	3978	6184	4192	5099	4273	5269	6823	4606	7798	10090	12420	13790	21090	6663	7175	15110	7762	4686	5248	17680	13460	17250	4376	3186	18920	5128	14650	12650	9643	15560	4452	5116	2643	9398	8950	4662	2658	10730	5827	16690	7695	3601	936	27500	14580	5322	4539	4563	20450	22160	23620	20190	15800	6317	7181	5382	7559	4065	7366	5583	1135	7933	3844	3629	5675	13040	25180	14710	4434	7550	22440	6094	7450	22100	5330	4740	5488	9285	5954	4690	11180
2021-02-02	2752	4361	7699	7150	8048	9331	10600	3601	22030	28460	15560	3799	16810	7570	6657	7659	12120	21120	89590	6078	16330	8237	5172	22100	3953	23370	6351	41040	10050	5843	26530	6559	13430	27770	5557	23180	5644	8732	6132	9157	15140	12200	5128	13220	6282	9646	7766	7949	14240	10540	11830	3393	8336	18300	19210	5348	4460	3879	6804	10330	2707	4236	12930	2369	33390	20850	2548	7026	28940	7692	6315	9808	3644	17900	2453	19100	10330	7398	24090	28260	2586	3693	4451	7801	5463	3893	15430	8121	7987	6419	4972	2758	6821	28480	11950	4848	5979	4652	4584	4231	7817	2811	4208	12300	6895	6014	3391	9802	5037	20950	6771	10910	3749	11830	4368	19750	7463	6807	18960	3878	7807	5863	6420	25610	6207	7732	4297	23750	5135	5160	22370	6429	7118	6675	6495	14140	8197	4880	6548	16110	11240	28300	16250	22730	8493	53080	31280	4596	20470	5720	6293	44620	17510	12010	3569	2368	46760	6783	25000	2249	3085	14980	1883	3045	6274	10610	18170	4072	5570	5918	21430	7516	33430	1874	5302	7035	5857	4758	7426	2764	9129	10580	3605	4871	16000	15330	6740	26820	7380	4350	20300	8619	8991	12430	8623	13070	11850	10220	31100	8258	5226	8612	4093	9812	2273	18540	6032	5585	4727	17370	5483	4954	5874	7257	1165	1649	20170	29990	5050	4550	21810	4251	6554	36990	13130	13830	13000	5421	4434	5092	6195	13610	1547	4024	6238	4232	5172	4298	5314	6910	4664	7893	10140	12550	13870	21210	6705	7218	15340	7827	4717	5312	17800	13570	17350	4407	3209	19060	5164	14760	12710	9687	15680	4502	5147	2691	9517	9045	4714	2680	10790	5878	16740	7735	3644	941	27630	14660	5365	4567	4605	20600	22440	23780	20320	15890	6362	7230	5416	7629	4117	7437	5638	1147	8009	3864	3647	5724	13150	25370	14870	4469	7585	22620	6145	7513	22380	5410	4787	5572	9367	5996	4732	11220

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-26