COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-30 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-01-30

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-01-30

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2212-2512-2112-2112-2212-0812-2212-2212-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2112-2312-2812-2712-2512-292021-01-072021-01-0311-152021-01-0112-2110-2912-2212-2512-2712-2212-2212-2712-2212-2112-2612-2212-3012-2612-2711-0312-2112-2212-2212-0812-2512-2212-2112-2512-2212-2312-2312-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2212-3112-2212-2612-2512-2112-2212-2212-2512-2312-2512-2612-2212-2212-2112-212021-01-022021-01-1410-1412-2512-0712-2512-2612-2412-2912-2212-2111-0212-2210-3112-2512-2912-2212-2112-2512-2212-2512-2212-232021-01-0412-2112-2312-2112-2212-232021-01-0412-2112-2612-2212-2212-2212-2112-2212-2112-2512-2212-2112-2212-2112-2212-2612-2212-2212-2212-1312-2112-1412-2812-2312-2912-2312-2812-2412-2212-212021-01-0112-2612-2212-2212-2712-2812-2210-2812-2210-2712-2712-212021-01-0512-2512-2912-2212-2412-2211-2912-2712-2112-2212-212021-01-0312-282021-01-0312-2211-0412-3012-2112-2112-2212-2212-2212-2212-2612-2612-2612-3011-0412-2312-0812-2210-2512-2612-2111-0412-2212-2911-0312-2211-0412-2212-222021-01-0212-2612-2112-2212-2512-2212-262021-01-032021-01-0512-282021-01-0212-3012-2311-032021-01-0312-2212-2512-2212-2312-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-2912-2412-2212-2212-2512-2312-2912-2911-0312-2212-2712-2712-2212-2612-2712-2112-2512-2112-2212-2112-2512-2512-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2612-2512-2212-2112-2212-2612-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2211-0112-2112-2212-2212-2212-2212-0712-2512-2612-2212-2312-3012-2912-2712-2112-2312-2112-2312-2212-2312-3012-2212-2312-2212-2212-2212-2210-2812-2212-2512-1812-2512-2212-2112-2212-2112-2512-2512-2212-1312-2812-0712-2212-2312-2012-2112-2712-2212-2212-2912-2612-2212-2512-3012-2312-2512-2112-3012-2212-26
Peak daily increment 61 87 96 177 109 172 185 79 475 648 191 56 337 127 92 107 237 435 1230 70 156 64 57 154 49 477 145 441 234 105 516 157 306 313 109 511 92 193 61 121 122 141 100 263 88 149 170 177 306 88 280 53 202 264 291 60 92 74 65 259 51 91 286 37 388 287 39 183 593 160 71 190 72 243 25 249 184 118 324 527 61 49 78 165 110 51 225 104 159 143 111 55 148 596 273 104 72 54 93 72 129 54 38 130 79 95 56 183 92 448 122 219 61 206 58 400 189 101 347 106 118 135 122 477 98 163 45 469 56 116 450 139 82 130 230 283 145 69 101 296 205 360 302 428 105 378 284 110 465 72 113 723 269 208 90 36 369 87 436 29 45 303 48 64 152 122 369 79 102 61 121 85 722 23 50 159 104 52 108 61 120 122 42 58 277 165 119 219 91 45 123 127 106 153 113 194 101 168 652 95 79 177 52 193 39 127 139 55 96 199 75 85 60 178 16 26 158 444 86 85 396 61 135 240 202 243 168 99 114 101 68 179 29 41 88 82 97 84 113 78 65 101 120 250 302 446 129 155 215 94 57 120 176 134 194 67 44 209 105 327 189 184 123 54 110 44 136 330 93 45 141 125 372 145 47 12 570 150 98 108 88 258 319 450 387 231 78 142 119 161 63 153 89 22 82 42 72 122 218 221 256 90 155 420 106 149 375 104 115 93 178 68 69 185
Days since peak 39 36 40 40 39 53 39 39 35 38 109 34 38 33 19 31 40 38 33 34 36 32 23 27 76 29 40 93 39 36 34 39 39 34 39 40 35 39 31 35 34 88 40 39 39 53 36 39 40 36 39 38 38 39 40 27 40 39 30 39 35 36 40 39 39 36 38 36 35 39 39 40 40 28 16 108 36 54 36 35 37 32 39 40 89 39 91 36 32 39 40 36 39 36 39 38 26 40 38 40 39 38 26 40 35 39 39 39 40 39 40 36 39 40 39 40 39 35 39 39 39 48 40 47 33 38 32 38 33 37 39 40 29 35 39 39 34 33 39 94 39 95 34 40 25 36 32 39 37 39 62 34 40 39 40 27 33 27 39 87 31 40 40 39 39 39 39 35 35 35 31 87 38 53 39 97 35 40 87 39 32 88 39 87 39 39 28 35 40 39 36 39 35 27 25 33 28 31 38 88 27 39 36 39 38 33 48 30 48 105 32 37 39 39 36 38 32 32 88 39 34 34 39 35 34 40 36 40 39 40 36 36 36 26 39 82 40 39 41 27 35 36 39 40 39 35 35 40 35 36 91 39 33 39 90 40 39 39 39 39 54 36 35 39 38 31 32 34 40 38 40 38 39 38 31 39 38 39 39 39 39 94 39 36 43 36 39 40 39 40 36 36 39 48 33 54 39 38 41 40 34 39 39 32 35 39 36 31 38 36 40 31 39 35
Last total 2633 4196 7476 6926 7820 9083 10232 3534 21643 27751 15259 3718 16558 7188 6542 7476 11755 20798 87161 5896 15903 8091 4983 21685 3936 22326 6266 40335 9840 5575 25528 6467 13183 27059 5291 22728 5502 8515 5955 9028 14852 11997 4986 12943 6074 9442 7601 7764 13789 10303 11716 3363 8207 17898 18794 5158 4232 3771 6650 9930 2590 4115 12511 2308 32838 20068 2509 6850 28342 7531 6178 9555 3555 17220 2377 18897 9809 7285 23132 27237 2532 3618 4295 7555 5435 3780 15228 7922 7639 6099 4817 2717 6727 27908 11741 4743 5767 4551 4464 4038 7529 2740 4079 12142 6757 5830 3266 9574 4828 20584 6629 10675 3670 11567 4259 19324 7234 6687 18491 3860 7697 5736 6275 25177 5996 7507 4183 23171 4977 5070 21756 6336 6878 6514 6242 13893 8088 4707 6283 15912 10976 27906 15625 22158 8175 52108 30404 4429 20174 5571 6136 43646 16902 11789 3474 2249 45888 6498 24558 2201 2928 14532 1841 2910 6176 10297 17626 3977 5315 5761 21043 7381 32677 1830 5148 6975 5592 4660 7371 2674 8887 10416 3470 4726 15448 15013 6372 26312 7153 4309 20055 8329 8762 12032 8218 12529 11511 9717 30452 7966 4960 8321 3999 9647 2220 18224 5887 5429 4638 17009 5313 4904 5759 7070 1155 1609 19776 28780 4999 4408 21257 4171 6402 36482 12629 13291 12543 5189 4343 4959 6036 13186 1497 3902 6068 4100 4932 4220 5148 6686 4474 7567 9971 12039 13494 20857 6565 7083 14634 7607 4636 5061 17483 13224 17019 4321 3179 18733 5054 14449 12511 9560 15375 4374 5047 2592 9150 8689 4548 2614 10551 5686 16567 7565 3557 920 27096 14393 5210 4450 4451 20302 21617 23139 20001 15661 6212 7122 5318 7347 3948 7205 5441 1084 7778 3792 3596 5570 12790 25048 14352 4358 7459 21991 5974 7322 21622 5171 4613 5353 9071 5874 4579 11113
Last daily increment 16 32 36 44 53 25 61 15 65 108 47 18 70 21 35 25 52 59 478 26 70 28 20 70 20 144 32 140 50 30 137 11 42 142 29 64 15 28 30 23 36 31 15 41 31 24 16 32 74 40 59 17 35 80 112 30 16 16 33 40 12 26 61 5 144 129 8 36 99 36 30 23 16 105 10 84 60 10 114 164 20 6 16 29 9 24 52 34 34 22 27 13 25 94 25 28 36 6 28 30 19 6 29 42 31 25 26 34 40 70 31 52 16 47 19 75 17 38 75 14 30 17 24 71 26 28 8 104 31 32 133 36 22 38 20 45 29 36 37 46 33 108 56 85 35 226 124 27 61 13 10 161 75 33 17 7 191 31 78 11 13 62 16 7 14 49 79 8 20 29 62 19 133 0 27 20 26 20 27 13 25 55 24 30 103 55 47 153 34 25 58 36 24 77 23 83 45 61 93 34 34 24 11 54 10 48 22 16 29 53 29 16 23 35 20 7 81 150 8 19 93 16 15 110 54 70 65 38 14 24 27 63 3 24 31 15 27 12 19 35 21 32 34 74 48 58 22 29 80 15 9 25 87 64 60 24 13 117 24 65 33 38 65 28 18 20 53 51 28 9 23 18 33 19 15 2 76 50 22 14 25 80 143 95 75 60 29 40 24 23 25 50 24 2 21 5 18 21 45 117 79 9 36 82 29 37 104 34 26 34 49 29 25 31
Last week 149 264 337 469 440 218 502 110 670 978 456 184 443 297 321 317 599 535 4088 221 559 284 261 680 132 1273 268 1168 405 396 1169 92 464 1079 267 691 208 249 256 274 395 319 183 370 300 267 281 216 638 365 380 126 305 660 833 266 219 177 261 475 132 317 805 85 1198 1053 74 369 1009 356 253 228 146 858 109 612 733 147 1201 1254 132 129 197 249 169 208 472 359 322 304 267 112 187 871 267 173 282 64 214 272 259 114 190 377 275 232 228 301 311 701 270 478 166 494 179 638 249 265 777 136 272 204 216 581 260 288 182 1062 207 230 1017 354 229 345 283 452 269 309 414 367 452 911 661 836 367 1580 1141 213 726 268 162 1490 845 307 113 115 1436 332 587 95 163 550 81 117 223 445 688 136 246 231 456 239 1071 36 214 128 301 198 194 124 333 363 164 241 802 479 387 979 325 152 510 352 287 743 276 572 424 549 799 325 307 416 133 379 83 484 155 142 158 533 228 190 201 297 79 44 622 1509 102 213 857 169 207 1092 627 644 597 344 132 254 283 541 68 217 321 133 265 161 182 324 254 370 289 631 387 702 267 256 737 221 148 294 624 496 531 177 143 789 178 560 246 385 548 239 211 115 502 496 335 105 292 201 436 217 216 22 582 457 186 147 198 654 1207 677 678 603 209 323 200 262 266 414 258 37 250 105 139 311 469 746 693 160 244 809 223 305 933 292 249 399 470 229 250 329
Previous peak date -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1810-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-1210-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --09-17 --10-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1109-2910-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2711-02 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- -- --10-26 --10-13 -- --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-01 -- --09-30 -- --09-2910-21 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-18 -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 -- -- --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 63 29 77 72 95 163 99 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 32 117 53 62 29 293 165 29 55 32 55 75 41 73 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 152 86 540 254 529 611 61 71 391 51 68 608 256 82 101 43 41 196 64 44 67 237 232 183 435 87 66 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 89 47 138 134 58 91 22 320 137 38 65 130
Low between peaks 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 53 7 18 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 20 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 6 70 57 19 40 13 12 62 22 19 14 49 91 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 31 8 27 35 21 19 5 77 21 9 18 15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-31 to 2021-02-06

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-01-30 2633 4196 7476 6926 7820 9083 10232 3534 21643 27751 15259 3718 16558 7188 6542 7476 11755 20798 87161 5896 15903 8091 4983 21685 3936 22326 6266 40335 9840 5575 25528 6467 13183 27059 5291 22728 5502 8515 5955 9028 14852 11997 4986 12943 6074 9442 7601 7764 13789 10303 11716 3363 8207 17898 18794 5158 4232 3771 6650 9930 2590 4115 12511 2308 32838 20068 2509 6850 28342 7531 6178 9555 3555 17220 2377 18897 9809 7285 23132 27237 2532 3618 4295 7555 5435 3780 15228 7922 7639 6099 4817 2717 6727 27908 11741 4743 5767 4551 4464 4038 7529 2740 4079 12142 6757 5830 3266 9574 4828 20584 6629 10675 3670 11567 4259 19324 7234 6687 18491 3860 7697 5736 6275 25177 5996 7507 4183 23171 4977 5070 21756 6336 6878 6514 6242 13893 8088 4707 6283 15912 10976 27906 15625 22158 8175 52108 30404 4429 20174 5571 6136 43646 16902 11789 3474 2249 45888 6498 24558 2201 2928 14532 1841 2910 6176 10297 17626 3977 5315 5761 21043 7381 32677 1830 5148 6975 5592 4660 7371 2674 8887 10416 3470 4726 15448 15013 6372 26312 7153 4309 20055 8329 8762 12032 8218 12529 11511 9717 30452 7966 4960 8321 3999 9647 2220 18224 5887 5429 4638 17009 5313 4904 5759 7070 1155 1609 19776 28780 4999 4408 21257 4171 6402 36482 12629 13291 12543 5189 4343 4959 6036 13186 1497 3902 6068 4100 4932 4220 5148 6686 4474 7567 9971 12039 13494 20857 6565 7083 14634 7607 4636 5061 17483 13224 17019 4321 3179 18733 5054 14449 12511 9560 15375 4374 5047 2592 9150 8689 4548 2614 10551 5686 16567 7565 3557 920 27096 14393 5210 4450 4451 20302 21617 23139 20001 15661 6212 7122 5318 7347 3948 7205 5441 1084 7778 3792 3596 5570 12790 25048 14352 4358 7459 21991 5974 7322 21622 5171 4613 5353 9071 5874 4579 11113
2021-01-31 2659 4241 7534 6986 7891 9124 10280 3555 21870 28000 15370 3748 16590 7212 6566 7522 11810 21000 87470 5937 16000 8138 5028 21800 3942 22550 6310 40580 9860 5641 26040 6493 13270 27060 5311 22860 5530 8568 6029 9086 14940 12080 5012 12990 6096 9573 7675 7808 13830 10350 11780 3385 8265 18020 18940 5205 4275 3782 6696 10050 2615 4166 12520 2324 33030 20130 2517 6916 28580 7610 6235 9650 3582 17290 2398 19060 9930 7309 23350 27460 2540 3636 4321 7588 5457 3814 15300 7980 7694 6140 4840 2738 6742 27970 11790 4767 5821 4560 4493 4083 7695 2755 4112 12200 6786 5874 3303 9640 4882 20720 6672 10760 3696 11630 4291 19540 7285 6746 18600 3887 7716 5742 6312 25220 6028 7553 4213 23350 5017 5108 21900 6389 6880 6564 6328 13970 8119 4759 6396 16000 11040 28040 15760 22250 8245 52520 30880 4483 20270 5615 6167 44060 17040 11890 3493 2271 45920 6559 24670 2216 2960 14630 1854 2920 6192 10410 17670 4020 5343 5802 21110 7419 32860 1837 5216 6995 5592 4691 7400 2698 8932 10470 3501 4767 15500 15160 6448 26480 7208 4337 20130 8362 8845 12210 8251 12640 11590 9820 30740 8026 5018 8413 4024 9710 2233 18340 5925 5449 4674 17140 5360 4931 5795 7133 1166 1614 19880 28810 5015 4423 21420 4199 6425 36740 12630 13350 12580 5288 4363 5003 6082 13290 1509 3950 6120 4110 4982 4242 5266 6742 4550 7634 10020 12130 13530 20910 6614 7138 14740 7650 4661 5103 17660 13310 17050 4332 3201 18860 5091 14550 12530 9630 15530 4429 5086 2616 9228 8784 4601 2637 10570 5719 16630 7600 3591 922 27220 14470 5230 4459 4485 20430 21690 23300 20110 15800 6251 7169 5364 7389 3989 7302 5488 1093 7814 3806 3605 5626 12920 25140 14470 4380 7511 22300 5997 7369 21750 5214 4667 5416 9149 5910 4632 11170
2021-02-01 2686 4286 7593 7084 7961 9164 10340 3575 22080 28180 15460 3779 16620 7237 6623 7565 11870 21190 88110 5978 16100 8184 5074 21920 3961 22770 6353 40820 9890 5708 26360 6519 13350 27190 5330 22990 5557 8621 6070 9140 15010 12130 5036 13030 6119 9647 7749 7853 13870 10400 11850 3407 8323 18140 19080 5253 4319 3793 6742 10170 2639 4216 12700 2341 33220 20190 2523 6982 28810 7684 6292 9740 3608 17410 2419 19180 10060 7334 23570 27670 2547 3653 4345 7624 5478 3848 15380 8038 7748 6177 4862 2759 6758 28030 11850 4789 5876 4570 4520 4128 7747 2767 4145 12260 6814 5918 3340 9710 4935 20860 6713 10840 3721 11690 4324 19750 7337 6802 18700 3914 7733 5759 6349 25260 6055 7597 4243 23530 5056 5148 22040 6443 6901 6622 6407 14050 8150 4811 6494 16080 11110 28180 15890 22340 8317 52830 31140 4535 20370 5659 6199 44330 17180 11970 3511 2294 46090 6623 24780 2231 2992 14720 1867 2930 6209 10490 17710 4059 5370 5843 21170 7457 33040 1844 5257 7015 5631 4721 7429 2723 8976 10530 3532 4808 15550 15260 6526 26640 7265 4363 20210 8396 8923 12340 8279 12740 11670 9920 31020 8086 5076 8502 4049 9770 2244 18430 5957 5467 4709 17250 5404 4956 5830 7196 1176 1618 19980 29000 5031 4437 21580 4227 6449 36960 12710 13460 12620 5357 4382 5047 6129 13390 1522 3991 6171 4120 5033 4263 5331 6799 4607 7702 10070 12210 13560 20970 6664 7192 14850 7694 4686 5143 17790 13390 17090 4354 3222 18990 5128 14640 12560 9700 15640 4471 5124 2639 9302 8881 4653 2660 10590 5753 16700 7632 3623 925 27350 14540 5254 4470 4520 20550 21840 23460 20220 15920 6290 7215 5410 7427 4031 7382 5536 1103 7858 3818 3613 5682 13010 25230 14590 4399 7564 22480 6031 7416 21870 5253 4737 5480 9225 5945 4684 11220
2021-02-02 2712 4330 7651 7146 8031 9204 10390 3595 22300 28330 15550 3809 16620 7259 6697 7610 11920 21380 88780 6019 16200 8230 5120 22030 3980 23000 6397 41030 9910 5774 26650 6545 13430 27300 5350 23120 5585 8673 6118 9205 15060 12190 5061 13080 6142 9712 7823 7896 13920 10450 11910 3429 8379 18260 19220 5300 4362 3804 6788 10280 2664 4266 12810 2357 33410 20250 2531 7048 29040 7760 6325 9830 3634 17540 2440 19320 10180 7358 23780 27880 2556 3670 4370 7656 5499 3883 15450 8097 7800 6216 4884 2779 6772 28090 11900 4811 5930 4579 4548 4173 7784 2781 4178 12320 6843 5962 3377 9780 4988 20990 6754 10930 3746 11750 4355 19960 7385 6857 18810 3940 7751 5776 6387 25300 6085 7641 4273 23710 5095 5186 22180 6496 6922 6674 6486 14130 8181 4863 6561 16130 11180 28320 16030 22430 8388 53110 31470 4587 20460 5704 6230 44560 17310 12040 3530 2317 46250 6684 24890 2246 3024 14810 1880 2939 6225 10570 17750 4098 5397 5882 21230 7495 33220 1851 5295 7035 5664 4751 7458 2747 9020 10580 3562 4849 15600 15340 6602 26800 7320 4390 20290 8430 8998 12490 8309 12840 11750 10020 31310 8146 5133 8595 4073 9820 2255 18510 5976 5485 4745 17340 5449 4981 5865 7259 1187 1623 20070 29200 5048 4453 21730 4254 6472 37160 12780 13550 12650 5415 4401 5091 6175 13480 1534 4028 6221 4130 5083 4284 5389 6855 4642 7769 10130 12300 13590 21030 6713 7247 14930 7737 4710 5182 17920 13480 17120 4377 3244 19120 5164 14740 12570 9760 15770 4510 5162 2662 9377 8975 4705 2683 10620 5786 16770 7665 3656 927 27470 14610 5285 4480 4554 20660 22030 23610 20330 16020 6328 7262 5449 7467 4072 7469 5583 1112 7889 3832 3620 5740 13090 25330 14700 4420 7616 22640 6053 7461 21990 5294 4781 5542 9301 5980 4736 11280
2021-02-03 2739 4375 7710 7202 8101 9243 10440 3615 22510 28470 15630 3839 16650 7281 6754 7653 11980 21570 89420 6059 16300 8276 5166 22150 4007 23220 6441 41260 9940 5841 26930 6571 13510 27450 5369 23260 5612 8726 6171 9236 15130 12250 5084 13130 6164 9756 7897 7940 13950 10490 11980 3450 8437 18370 19360 5347 4406 3815 6833 10400 2689 4317 12870 2374 33590 20310 2537 7115 29280 7835 6373 9930 3660 17680 2461 19450 10300 7383 24000 28090 2564 3687 4394 7690 5520 3917 15530 8155 7852 6253 4905 2798 6787 28150 11950 4832 5984 4589 4575 4218 7818 2794 4210 12380 6870 6006 3414 9840 5042 21120 6794 11010 3772 11810 4387 20170 7435 6912 18920 3967 7767 5790 6424 25340 6113 7685 4303 23890 5134 5224 22310 6550 6960 6727 6565 14210 8212 4915 6615 16210 11250 28450 16160 22520 8460 53370 31790 4640 20560 5749 6261 44760 17450 12090 3548 2340 46430 6748 25010 2261 3056 14900 1892 2948 6240 10650 17790 4137 5424 5923 21300 7534 33390 1858 5328 7054 5730 4780 7486 2771 9063 10640 3593 4890 15640 15430 6679 26950 7376 4416 20360 8463 9075 12630 8338 12950 11830 10120 31590 8206 5191 8668 4097 9880 2267 18590 6004 5503 4780 17430 5492 5006 5900 7322 1197 1627 20180 29400 5064 4468 21890 4282 6496 37370 12870 13620 12690 5483 4420 5136 6221 13580 1547 4073 6272 4139 5134 4304 5440 6911 4689 7837 10180 12380 13610 21080 6762 7302 15020 7781 4735 5221 18010 13560 17160 4400 3265 19240 5201 14830 12580 9830 15880 4550 5200 2685 9450 9073 4756 2707 10640 5819 16830 7698 3688 929 27590 14680 5325 4491 4588 20760 22240 23780 20440 16120 6367 7308 5479 7505 4113 7533 5630 1121 7934 3844 3627 5798 13170 25440 14820 4440 7669 22770 6084 7506 22110 5334 4817 5606 9377 6014 4787 11330
2021-02-04 2766 4419 7769 7315 8171 9283 10490 3635 22720 28600 15700 3870 16680 7303 6795 7695 12040 21760 90090 6101 16400 8322 5212 22270 4031 23440 6485 41400 9960 5909 27230 6597 13590 27640 5388 23400 5639 8778 6217 9288 15210 12300 5107 13170 6187 9798 7971 7984 13990 10540 12040 3472 8494 18490 19490 5395 4451 3826 6879 10510 2714 4368 13050 2390 33780 20370 2544 7181 29510 7910 6414 10020 3687 17870 2482 19590 10430 7408 24220 28300 2572 3704 4418 7724 5542 3952 15600 8214 7904 6290 4927 2818 6801 28210 12010 4853 6038 4598 4603 4264 7876 2807 4243 12440 6898 6051 3451 9910 5096 21250 6834 11090 3797 11870 4420 20380 7484 6967 19030 3993 7783 5816 6462 25380 6140 7729 4334 24070 5173 5263 22450 6604 7013 6775 6645 14290 8243 4967 6685 16250 11320 28590 16290 22610 8532 53600 32120 4692 20660 5794 6293 44990 17590 12140 3566 2363 46660 6811 25120 2275 3089 15000 1905 2957 6256 10720 17830 4176 5451 5963 21360 7572 33570 1865 5371 7074 5766 4810 7514 2796 9107 10690 3624 4931 15690 15500 6757 27110 7432 4442 20440 8497 9151 12750 8367 13050 11910 10230 31870 8267 5249 8748 4121 9940 2278 18670 6017 5521 4815 17510 5537 5031 5935 7386 1208 1631 20280 29670 5080 4484 22050 4309 6520 37560 13020 13690 12720 5529 4439 5180 6267 13680 1559 4106 6323 4148 5185 4324 5499 6967 4729 7906 10230 12470 13640 21140 6811 7356 15150 7826 4760 5260 18130 13650 17190 4417 3286 19370 5237 14930 12600 9900 15990 4600 5238 2709 9524 9171 4808 2730 10670 5852 16900 7731 3721 932 27710 14750 5348 4502 4623 20870 22470 23940 20560 16220 6405 7354 5503 7543 4155 7604 5678 1131 7987 3857 3634 5856 13250 25580 14930 4459 7723 22910 6103 7552 22220 5373 4904 5671 9453 6048 4839 11390
2021-02-05 2793 4464 7828 7373 8241 9323 10540 3655 22940 28700 15760 3901 16690 7325 6823 7738 12090 21950 90610 6142 16500 8368 5258 22380 4043 23660 6529 41560 9990 5976 27460 6624 13670 27710 5407 23530 5666 8831 6248 9307 15250 12340 5131 13220 6209 9817 8046 8028 14030 10580 12110 3494 8552 18610 19630 5442 4495 3837 6925 10630 2739 4419 13140 2407 33960 20430 2550 7249 29750 7985 6436 10110 3713 17970 2503 19700 10550 7433 24440 28510 2580 3722 4442 7759 5563 3986 15670 8274 7956 6328 4948 2838 6815 28260 12060 4874 6093 4607 4630 4310 7900 2819 4276 12490 6926 6096 3488 9970 5150 21380 6874 11170 3822 11930 4452 20590 7534 7022 19130 4020 7800 5816 6499 25410 6168 7772 4364 24250 5213 5302 22590 6659 7032 6815 6724 14370 8275 5019 6757 16310 11380 28720 16430 22710 8604 53790 32370 4745 20760 5840 6325 45150 17720 12170 3584 2386 46800 6875 25240 2290 3121 15090 1917 2966 6271 10780 17880 4215 5477 6004 21420 7611 33740 1872 5401 7094 5809 4840 7542 2821 9151 10750 3655 4972 15730 15560 6836 27270 7488 4468 20520 8531 9228 12840 8395 13150 11980 10330 32150 8328 5307 8805 4145 10000 2289 18730 6029 5539 4851 17580 5581 5056 5970 7449 1218 1636 20360 29820 5096 4499 22210 4337 6545 37700 13080 13740 12760 5574 4458 5225 6314 13780 1572 4136 6374 4157 5236 4344 5550 7024 4765 7975 10280 12550 13670 21200 6860 7411 15190 7871 4785 5298 18240 13730 17220 4426 3307 19490 5274 15030 12600 9960 16080 4625 5276 2732 9598 9270 4859 2753 10690 5885 16970 7763 3753 934 27830 14820 5375 4514 4657 20960 22620 24100 20670 16320 6444 7400 5526 7581 4197 7658 5726 1141 8008 3870 3641 5915 13310 25660 15050 4479 7776 23010 6117 7598 22340 5412 4934 5735 9530 6083 4891 11450
2021-02-06 2820 4509 7887 7406 8312 9363 10590 3675 23160 28800 15800 3931 16750 7347 6852 7781 12150 22140 91050 6183 16590 8415 5305 22500 4061 23880 6573 41690 10020 6045 27620 6650 13750 27820 5426 23670 5694 8884 6280 9333 15290 12380 5154 13260 6232 9846 8120 8072 14070 10630 12170 3515 8610 18730 19770 5490 4540 3848 6971 10750 2764 4470 13200 2424 34150 20490 2557 7316 29990 8060 6466 10210 3740 18060 2524 19770 10680 7458 24650 28710 2588 3739 4466 7793 5584 4021 15750 8333 8008 6365 4969 2857 6830 28320 12120 4895 6148 4617 4657 4356 7927 2832 4308 12550 6954 6140 3525 10040 5204 21520 6914 11250 3848 11980 4484 20800 7584 7078 19240 4047 7816 5834 6537 25450 6196 7816 4395 24430 5252 5341 22730 6713 7050 6861 6804 14450 8306 5071 6787 16350 11450 28860 16560 22800 8677 53970 32460 4798 20850 5885 6357 45360 17860 12210 3602 2410 46970 6940 25350 2305 3154 15180 1930 2975 6287 10830 17920 4254 5504 6044 21480 7650 33920 1879 5428 7114 5833 4870 7571 2845 9195 10800 3687 5014 15780 15610 6914 27430 7545 4494 20590 8565 9305 12920 8424 13260 12060 10440 32430 8389 5366 8825 4169 10050 2300 18780 6052 5556 4886 17640 5625 5081 6006 7513 1229 1640 20430 29940 5113 4515 22370 4364 6569 37820 13120 13810 12790 5610 4476 5270 6361 13880 1585 4155 6425 4166 5288 4365 5564 7080 4791 8044 10330 12640 13700 21250 6910 7467 15260 7916 4809 5337 18320 13820 17250 4450 3328 19620 5311 15120 12630 10030 16140 4653 5315 2756 9671 9369 4911 2777 10710 5919 17030 7796 3786 937 27950 14890 5395 4525 4692 21030 22730 24260 20780 16400 6482 7447 5555 7619 4240 7717 5774 1150 8024 3883 3648 5973 13380 25740 15160 4498 7830 23130 6151 7644 22450 5452 4958 5801 9607 6117 4943 11500

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-31 to 2021-02-06

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-01-30 2633 4196 7476 6926 7820 9083 10232 3534 21643 27751 15259 3718 16558 7188 6542 7476 11755 20798 87161 5896 15903 8091 4983 21685 3936 22326 6266 40335 9840 5575 25528 6467 13183 27059 5291 22728 5502 8515 5955 9028 14852 11997 4986 12943 6074 9442 7601 7764 13789 10303 11716 3363 8207 17898 18794 5158 4232 3771 6650 9930 2590 4115 12511 2308 32838 20068 2509 6850 28342 7531 6178 9555 3555 17220 2377 18897 9809 7285 23132 27237 2532 3618 4295 7555 5435 3780 15228 7922 7639 6099 4817 2717 6727 27908 11741 4743 5767 4551 4464 4038 7529 2740 4079 12142 6757 5830 3266 9574 4828 20584 6629 10675 3670 11567 4259 19324 7234 6687 18491 3860 7697 5736 6275 25177 5996 7507 4183 23171 4977 5070 21756 6336 6878 6514 6242 13893 8088 4707 6283 15912 10976 27906 15625 22158 8175 52108 30404 4429 20174 5571 6136 43646 16902 11789 3474 2249 45888 6498 24558 2201 2928 14532 1841 2910 6176 10297 17626 3977 5315 5761 21043 7381 32677 1830 5148 6975 5592 4660 7371 2674 8887 10416 3470 4726 15448 15013 6372 26312 7153 4309 20055 8329 8762 12032 8218 12529 11511 9717 30452 7966 4960 8321 3999 9647 2220 18224 5887 5429 4638 17009 5313 4904 5759 7070 1155 1609 19776 28780 4999 4408 21257 4171 6402 36482 12629 13291 12543 5189 4343 4959 6036 13186 1497 3902 6068 4100 4932 4220 5148 6686 4474 7567 9971 12039 13494 20857 6565 7083 14634 7607 4636 5061 17483 13224 17019 4321 3179 18733 5054 14449 12511 9560 15375 4374 5047 2592 9150 8689 4548 2614 10551 5686 16567 7565 3557 920 27096 14393 5210 4450 4451 20302 21617 23139 20001 15661 6212 7122 5318 7347 3948 7205 5441 1084 7778 3792 3596 5570 12790 25048 14352 4358 7459 21991 5974 7322 21622 5171 4613 5353 9071 5874 4579 11113
2021-01-31 2651 4234 7520 6984 7876 9112 10300 3548 21730 27830 15330 3739 16600 7223 6580 7504 11830 20860 87550 5931 15980 8131 5013 21770 3950 22470 6299 40500 9890 5625 25680 6478 13230 27160 5325 22820 5518 8548 5984 9058 14900 12040 5009 12990 6109 9472 7635 7793 13880 10340 11770 3379 8239 17990 18910 5193 4261 3792 6682 9990 2609 4159 12590 2319 32960 20190 2519 6897 28450 7581 6207 9591 3574 17310 2393 18970 9900 7305 23290 27370 2553 3631 4309 7586 5454 3806 15290 7969 7673 6129 4846 2733 6751 28010 11770 4746 5804 4558 4490 4062 7586 2748 4104 12190 6793 5865 3296 9615 4869 20670 6664 10730 3692 11630 4283 19390 7264 6724 18570 3876 7729 5759 6303 25250 6017 7537 4207 23320 5007 5095 21890 6375 6895 6551 6272 13950 8118 4752 6333 15960 11030 28000 15710 22230 8204 52320 30520 4459 20260 5606 6157 43840 17010 11820 3491 2258 46040 6530 24620 2215 2944 14600 1853 2926 6200 10360 17700 3994 5346 5786 21110 7413 32800 1834 5184 6994 5616 4686 7400 2691 8923 10470 3495 4752 15550 15090 6429 26460 7189 4333 20120 8357 8796 12100 8242 12610 11570 9790 30580 8013 4999 8353 4017 9700 2230 18270 5904 5448 4653 17080 5343 4924 5790 7104 1165 1612 19860 28820 5013 4432 21370 4194 6422 36630 12700 13360 12600 5234 4359 4990 6070 13270 1504 3930 6112 4115 4957 4238 5175 6726 4502 7598 10010 12120 13530 20920 6600 7120 14710 7639 4651 5096 17590 13290 17080 4336 3196 18860 5076 14520 12530 9614 15450 4399 5074 2608 9213 8756 4596 2628 10580 5710 16610 7585 3582 923 27160 14450 5227 4464 4469 20370 21740 23230 20040 15750 6244 7164 5340 7366 3978 7263 5471 1089 7806 3804 3610 5589 12830 25110 14440 4373 7492 22080 5996 7354 21720 5194 4639 5395 9129 5905 4613 11150
2021-02-01 2678 4273 7577 7067 7961 9146 10380 3560 21850 28020 15420 3767 16650 7278 6636 7563 11910 20960 88170 5970 16080 8176 5066 21890 3969 22690 6337 40710 9970 5692 25880 6493 13300 27330 5369 22940 5549 8587 6028 9109 14970 12100 5037 13050 6154 9533 7691 7833 13970 10390 11820 3401 8284 18100 19030 5240 4299 3816 6729 10070 2631 4205 12720 2335 33180 20360 2528 6967 28630 7632 6254 9630 3599 17440 2415 19060 10020 7329 23500 27580 2571 3649 4351 7632 5476 3836 15360 8027 7721 6191 4881 2747 6773 28130 11810 4770 5847 4565 4524 4122 7640 2769 4138 12240 6830 5906 3333 9664 4921 20770 6698 10800 3715 11700 4314 19500 7300 6771 18710 3894 7759 5788 6336 25340 6066 7575 4237 23490 5044 5134 22040 6427 6926 6603 6306 14010 8157 4801 6430 16020 11100 28170 15800 22370 8283 52620 30690 4495 20410 5650 6191 44070 17150 11890 3510 2283 46250 6596 24740 2230 2979 14680 1863 2947 6235 10450 17800 4015 5383 5831 21180 7450 32990 1840 5225 7015 5653 4714 7427 2713 8974 10530 3526 4793 15660 15170 6496 26620 7249 4353 20200 8422 8847 12230 8281 12700 11650 9880 30710 8073 5054 8439 4037 9760 2241 18370 5929 5471 4685 17190 5374 4947 5825 7160 1176 1619 19960 29040 5033 4461 21480 4218 6458 36820 12780 13480 12690 5294 4376 5037 6121 13360 1516 3969 6169 4138 5009 4259 5219 6784 4555 7672 10060 12210 13590 21030 6643 7163 14860 7680 4679 5130 17700 13380 17170 4364 3219 18970 5113 14610 12580 9673 15550 4441 5104 2626 9291 8835 4646 2648 10630 5735 16680 7622 3620 927 27270 14520 5250 4492 4509 20500 21910 23370 20180 15840 6280 7203 5375 7433 4019 7324 5525 1099 7854 3820 3628 5663 12930 25210 14550 4400 7539 22250 6033 7406 21850 5240 4682 5468 9195 5937 4649 11200
2021-02-02 2703 4312 7640 7133 8030 9180 10460 3572 21980 28200 15500 3793 16710 7333 6697 7618 11990 21030 88820 6010 16190 8221 5115 22010 3987 22880 6374 40920 10040 5756 26040 6510 13370 27490 5417 23070 5581 8626 6074 9160 15030 12150 5066 13110 6200 9584 7747 7873 14060 10450 11870 3421 8324 18210 19160 5288 4337 3840 6773 10150 2652 4250 12840 2351 33380 20510 2538 7040 28790 7684 6291 9669 3621 17570 2436 19150 10140 7354 23700 27770 2590 3665 4382 7676 5497 3876 15430 8085 7767 6245 4918 2761 6795 28250 11850 4795 5899 4572 4558 4171 7688 2782 4173 12290 6867 5947 3368 9714 4970 20880 6729 10860 3738 11780 4345 19610 7336 6811 18820 3913 7790 5816 6366 25430 6102 7616 4266 23640 5079 5170 22180 6475 6957 6659 6339 14070 8189 4850 6500 16070 11170 28330 15900 22500 8355 52910 30930 4530 20560 5693 6222 44280 17280 11960 3527 2307 46460 6655 24850 2245 3007 14760 1874 2967 6267 10520 17900 4036 5421 5868 21250 7487 33160 1847 5263 7035 5695 4742 7455 2736 9024 10590 3557 4835 15770 15250 6563 26770 7307 4374 20270 8474 8895 12380 8316 12800 11720 9980 30840 8133 5106 8522 4057 9820 2251 18450 5950 5494 4708 17290 5405 4969 5859 7207 1185 1626 20050 29290 5049 4490 21600 4241 6492 37000 12870 13570 12780 5348 4393 5087 6169 13450 1527 4005 6223 4159 5067 4279 5256 6846 4593 7746 10110 12310 13650 21140 6684 7204 14990 7721 4704 5162 17800 13460 17250 4391 3240 19090 5142 14690 12610 9728 15640 4479 5135 2649 9366 8914 4695 2666 10680 5760 16750 7657 3654 931 27360 14580 5280 4520 4546 20610 22090 23500 20280 15930 6314 7241 5401 7493 4063 7385 5568 1108 7891 3836 3646 5712 13010 25320 14650 4423 7580 22390 6063 7456 21990 5279 4722 5538 9262 5968 4685 11250
2021-02-03 2728 4350 7696 7205 8094 9214 10530 3584 22100 28310 15580 3819 16760 7386 6754 7674 12070 21120 89420 6049 16280 8266 5164 22120 4010 23060 6412 41130 10090 5819 26200 6526 13430 27650 5462 23190 5611 8665 6122 9191 15090 12210 5093 13170 6245 9626 7797 7907 14150 10500 11920 3442 8362 18300 19290 5334 4376 3864 6812 10230 2673 4295 12950 2366 33570 20670 2548 7099 28960 7738 6334 9708 3646 17700 2458 19240 10250 7379 23910 27930 2608 3682 4411 7719 5518 3915 15500 8143 7812 6297 4947 2775 6817 28370 11890 4809 5957 4578 4592 4223 7733 2795 4203 12340 6904 5988 3402 9763 5020 20980 6759 10920 3761 11850 4376 19710 7371 6848 18940 3930 7820 5844 6397 25520 6150 7655 4295 23810 5116 5213 22310 6525 6993 6708 6372 14120 8226 4898 6558 16120 11230 28480 15990 22620 8419 53160 31150 4565 20710 5737 6253 44480 17420 12000 3544 2329 46660 6715 24950 2259 3036 14840 1885 2987 6299 10600 18010 4057 5458 5907 21320 7524 33330 1853 5297 7056 5747 4770 7482 2759 9074 10640 3587 4874 15880 15330 6630 26930 7362 4394 20350 8528 8940 12520 8352 12890 11790 10070 30980 8192 5159 8593 4076 9880 2261 18520 5972 5516 4739 17380 5436 4991 5894 7249 1195 1629 20160 29510 5066 4518 21710 4265 6528 37180 12960 13670 12870 5405 4409 5127 6215 13540 1539 4046 6275 4182 5117 4300 5288 6898 4638 7805 10150 12400 13710 21250 6724 7248 15110 7762 4729 5195 17890 13540 17320 4417 3263 19200 5169 14780 12650 9781 15730 4518 5165 2670 9441 8992 4745 2684 10720 5785 16830 7692 3684 935 27460 14650 5304 4546 4576 20710 22280 23640 20370 16010 6349 7279 5425 7549 4103 7444 5614 1116 7934 3852 3661 5762 13080 25420 14760 4448 7620 22500 6098 7505 22120 5322 4760 5601 9329 5999 4721 11290
2021-02-04 2751 4390 7757 7286 8158 9248 10610 3597 22200 28650 15650 3845 16840 7441 6801 7720 12150 21220 90020 6089 16370 8311 5214 22250 4030 23350 6460 41310 10150 5881 26360 6539 13490 27810 5504 23300 5633 8705 6172 9241 15150 12260 5118 13230 6299 9678 7845 7936 14240 10560 11970 3461 8397 18400 19420 5386 4414 3889 6858 10310 2695 4340 13080 2382 33780 20860 2557 7161 29100 7789 6377 9747 3671 17880 2479 19340 10390 7403 24150 28150 2627 3701 4436 7758 5540 3948 15560 8198 7854 6343 4976 2789 6839 28490 11940 4867 6018 4585 4626 4271 7786 2806 4238 12390 6940 6030 3437 9813 5078 21080 6789 10980 3784 11930 4407 19840 7407 6881 19070 3947 7850 5874 6428 25620 6182 7699 4325 23970 5161 5248 22460 6586 7040 6754 6405 14180 8261 4957 6640 16170 11300 28600 16090 22730 8498 53420 31390 4601 20870 5781 6285 44690 17550 12050 3562 2356 46900 6787 25090 2274 3072 14920 1897 3007 6338 10680 18130 4077 5496 5950 21390 7562 33470 1859 5343 7075 5787 4799 7509 2787 9124 10690 3619 4922 15990 15420 6698 27090 7415 4415 20420 8576 8985 12630 8413 12980 11880 10160 31110 8261 5224 8655 4096 9930 2272 18610 5990 5539 4770 17470 5467 5012 5928 7303 1205 1641 20260 29800 5079 4547 21820 4288 6574 37360 13050 13770 12980 5466 4425 5165 6272 13630 1552 4082 6324 4204 5173 4321 5321 6952 4685 7880 10200 12490 13780 21350 6766 7289 15280 7803 4752 5229 17980 13640 17400 4440 3281 19320 5198 14850 12700 9839 15820 4567 5196 2688 9516 9072 4795 2701 10770 5810 16890 7744 3710 939 27560 14700 5326 4566 4607 20820 22490 23750 20510 16100 6384 7318 5447 7597 4149 7504 5663 1125 7985 3868 3675 5825 13160 25530 14860 4471 7671 22650 6126 7545 22250 5356 4801 5660 9396 6030 4757 11340
2021-02-05 2774 4429 7812 7347 8223 9283 10680 3609 22300 28820 15730 3869 16910 7494 6849 7769 12240 21300 90580 6129 16460 8357 5264 22360 4045 23520 6498 41500 10200 5946 26550 6565 13570 27940 5550 23410 5652 8746 6219 9275 15220 12320 5144 13290 6345 9715 7884 7968 14330 10610 12020 3481 8434 18490 19550 5439 4453 3913 6898 10390 2717 4387 13190 2398 33930 21020 2567 7213 29240 7835 6413 9788 3691 18000 2503 19420 10510 7428 24350 28310 2646 3716 4457 7798 5561 3982 15630 8256 7912 6385 5011 2803 6861 28610 12000 4900 6072 4591 4661 4313 7831 2815 4271 12440 6977 6072 3474 9864 5126 21180 6817 11040 3808 12000 4437 19950 7444 6915 19170 3964 7880 5901 6456 25710 6218 7741 4355 24120 5198 5277 22610 6640 7069 6794 6440 14240 8290 5006 6715 16220 11370 28740 16190 22810 8556 53680 31640 4637 21030 5826 6316 44910 17670 12100 3579 2375 47110 6860 25180 2290 3111 15000 1906 3028 6375 10750 18240 4099 5534 5984 21460 7599 33600 1866 5383 7094 5828 4827 7537 2808 9166 10750 3650 4959 16100 15500 6767 27240 7469 4435 20500 8624 9026 12750 8450 13070 11960 10260 31250 8320 5279 8740 4116 9980 2282 18680 6011 5563 4803 17560 5499 5035 5964 7338 1214 1647 20350 30010 5093 4576 21940 4312 6609 37520 13140 13860 13100 5527 4439 5204 6314 13730 1566 4120 6379 4226 5225 4341 5357 7001 4732 7953 10240 12590 13840 21430 6807 7327 15410 7845 4779 5263 18070 13720 17470 4457 3303 19440 5224 14930 12750 9890 15910 4601 5226 2707 9593 9153 4845 2719 10810 5836 16940 7776 3756 942 27640 14750 5351 4586 4634 20910 22680 23870 20600 16200 6420 7357 5469 7642 4190 7563 5706 1137 8020 3885 3690 5882 13230 25630 14950 4492 7712 22750 6154 7581 22370 5393 4834 5716 9464 6062 4793 11390
2021-02-06 2796 4469 7864 7402 8277 9318 10760 3622 22400 28970 15810 3893 16970 7545 6891 7806 12320 21370 91060 6170 16560 8403 5304 22470 4062 23700 6535 41690 10240 6009 26700 6580 13620 28070 5594 23530 5670 8786 6264 9302 15270 12370 5172 13350 6388 9759 7921 8000 14420 10660 12070 3496 8468 18580 19680 5483 4493 3938 6932 10470 2739 4433 13290 2415 34100 21170 2577 7259 29360 7884 6453 9828 3711 18120 2524 19460 10620 7453 24560 28460 2665 3728 4480 7835 5583 4010 15690 8310 7958 6416 5039 2818 6884 28740 12030 4921 6123 4597 4695 4346 7875 2824 4303 12490 7014 6114 3509 9914 5173 21290 6844 11100 3831 12080 4468 20030 7481 6946 19270 3980 7911 5931 6484 25790 6241 7779 4385 24280 5233 5300 22730 6685 7097 6827 6475 14300 8319 5055 6778 16270 11440 28850 16290 22880 8600 53910 31760 4673 21190 5871 6348 45150 17800 12130 3595 2390 47280 6917 25260 2305 3138 15080 1916 3048 6407 10830 18340 4120 5573 6021 21540 7637 33710 1872 5414 7113 5857 4856 7564 2823 9214 10790 3682 4993 16210 15570 6837 27390 7518 4456 20570 8658 9065 12850 8483 13160 12040 10350 31380 8378 5332 8782 4137 10020 2293 18740 6036 5586 4834 17640 5531 5055 5997 7378 1224 1652 20430 30160 5103 4605 22050 4336 6644 37690 13230 13960 13180 5571 4454 5234 6355 13820 1578 4152 6425 4247 5266 4358 5381 7048 4772 8007 10290 12680 13890 21490 6844 7369 15560 7888 4801 5297 18150 13790 17540 4477 3318 19560 5247 15010 12780 9938 15980 4634 5258 2724 9664 9234 4896 2737 10850 5862 16990 7805 3779 946 27700 14800 5368 4605 4660 20990 22850 23990 20670 16270 6455 7396 5490 7682 4231 7623 5750 1146 8047 3901 3702 5913 13290 25690 15050 4510 7748 22870 6178 7614 22490 5423 4864 5780 9533 6094 4830 11430

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.