COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-02

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-02

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2512-2612-2512-2112-2512-0812-2512-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-2912-2612-2312-2812-2712-2512-2912-2712-2811-1512-2812-2110-2912-2512-2612-2712-1312-2512-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-2612-2811-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2512-2112-2112-2512-2212-2812-2612-2312-232021-01-0312-2112-2112-2912-2612-2612-2512-2112-2512-2212-2512-2612-2612-2612-2112-2512-2412-212021-01-022021-01-1310-1412-2512-0712-2512-2612-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2512-2712-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0412-2112-2312-2512-2512-262021-01-0412-2712-2612-2512-2512-2512-2112-2512-2112-2512-2512-2312-2112-2612-2212-2612-2712-2212-2212-1312-2512-1412-2812-2312-2812-2312-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2812-2812-2812-2512-2812-2512-2612-2712-2612-2812-2512-2612-2612-2412-2511-2912-2712-2712-2312-2112-2812-2812-3012-2211-0412-2812-2112-2112-2312-2212-2512-2212-2612-2612-2812-3011-0412-2812-0812-2610-2512-2612-2511-0412-2512-2811-0312-252021-01-0212-2612-2112-2812-2712-2612-2612-2812-2712-2712-282021-01-0412-292021-01-0212-2812-2311-032021-01-0312-2212-2512-2112-2812-2812-1312-2912-1310-1712-2812-2612-2512-2512-2512-2512-2912-2811-0312-2312-2712-2812-2412-2612-2712-2412-2512-2112-2212-2812-2612-2612-252021-01-0412-2511-0912-2412-2212-242021-01-0212-2612-2512-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-3112-2212-2812-2511-0112-2112-2512-2612-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-2712-2312-2812-2912-2712-2512-2612-2612-2112-1212-2312-2712-2512-2612-2812-2212-2612-2310-2812-2612-2612-1812-2512-2512-2112-2312-2312-2512-2512-2512-1312-2812-0712-2212-2312-2712-2612-2812-2312-2212-2812-2612-2212-2512-2812-2812-2512-2312-3012-2612-26
Peak daily increment 62 91 96 172 112 172 185 78 489 625 191 59 333 134 98 108 233 429 1255 72 162 65 57 156 49 491 142 441 230 108 524 155 312 319 112 504 94 188 60 122 124 141 98 258 90 149 173 174 301 89 265 53 205 254 288 60 90 71 65 258 54 95 280 36 367 293 39 187 608 151 72 189 72 245 24 249 190 118 331 544 62 53 77 160 110 52 225 105 164 147 108 56 143 604 271 100 72 53 92 73 129 53 38 125 82 94 57 181 90 459 120 221 60 201 57 402 176 110 340 101 109 135 122 477 101 157 46 449 57 117 459 138 83 134 234 279 150 72 104 122 197 192 311 436 105 386 286 109 456 73 113 738 279 201 90 36 377 87 419 29 46 297 49 63 148 123 363 81 106 63 123 85 725 23 51 159 106 51 108 59 124 122 41 55 282 157 119 226 91 45 128 128 111 154 115 201 101 175 638 95 80 171 52 187 40 136 139 56 96 199 78 87 61 179 17 26 163 451 86 83 408 66 135 248 206 244 171 97 107 103 69 185 30 41 85 82 97 79 109 77 67 103 113 245 294 464 132 153 218 97 57 112 178 134 194 66 44 209 105 323 189 187 126 55 109 46 138 330 92 47 139 123 369 142 49 12 562 153 92 110 85 258 325 458 387 233 77 138 117 159 65 155 88 22 84 42 67 119 217 221 263 85 149 439 108 140 385 106 115 95 174 70 71 188
Days since peak 39 38 39 43 39 56 39 41 38 41 112 37 41 36 22 35 38 41 36 37 39 35 37 36 79 36 43 96 39 38 37 51 39 36 39 43 38 42 34 38 36 91 43 38 39 56 39 43 43 39 42 36 38 41 41 30 43 43 35 38 38 39 43 39 42 39 38 38 38 43 39 40 43 31 20 111 39 57 39 38 40 35 40 43 92 38 94 39 37 36 43 39 42 39 50 41 29 43 41 39 39 38 29 37 38 39 39 39 43 39 43 39 39 41 43 38 42 38 37 42 42 51 39 50 36 41 36 41 36 40 39 43 32 36 37 36 36 36 39 36 39 38 37 38 36 39 38 38 40 39 65 37 37 41 43 36 36 34 42 90 36 43 43 41 42 39 42 38 38 36 34 90 36 56 38 100 38 39 90 39 36 91 39 31 38 43 36 37 38 38 36 37 37 36 29 35 31 36 41 91 30 42 39 43 36 36 51 35 51 108 36 38 39 39 39 39 35 36 91 41 37 36 40 38 37 40 39 43 42 36 38 38 39 29 39 85 40 42 40 31 38 39 42 43 50 36 38 43 39 39 94 42 36 39 93 43 39 38 37 43 57 39 36 37 41 36 35 37 39 38 38 43 52 41 37 39 38 36 42 38 41 97 38 38 46 39 39 43 41 41 39 39 39 51 36 57 42 41 37 38 36 41 42 36 38 42 39 36 36 39 41 34 38 38
Last total 2677 4319 7641 7084 7999 9184 10418 3570 21889 28147 15462 3787 16727 7304 6675 7568 12004 20987 88703 5990 16113 8237 5102 22055 4005 22827 6387 40773 9994 5722 25971 6511 13348 27463 5421 22973 5580 8623 6059 9122 15018 12115 5056 13106 6187 9517 7682 7851 14027 10458 11860 3394 8307 18216 19113 5256 4315 3837 6757 10140 2640 4250 12721 2342 33306 20461 2529 6975 28737 7654 6271 9666 3629 17543 2433 19155 10089 7351 23521 27779 2591 3649 4397 7622 5559 3854 15424 8113 7816 6194 4935 2766 6776 28185 11843 4811 5890 4568 4553 4155 7620 2786 4155 12292 6877 5935 3352 9669 4932 20866 6742 10863 3706 11764 4326 19538 7332 6777 18783 3924 7787 5816 6386 25414 6089 7621 4274 23600 5094 5171 22189 6466 6989 6616 6310 14042 8192 4847 6465 16093 11140 28250 15890 22475 8308 52753 30925 4498 20434 5706 6177 44268 17201 11934 3523 2305 46528 6660 24791 2235 2985 14782 1886 2955 6236 10517 17873 4020 5415 5880 21235 7478 33086 1844 5239 7056 5700 4763 7471 2736 9017 10642 3521 4808 15741 15254 6537 26778 7278 4366 20278 8454 8878 12327 8300 12746 11742 9891 30785 8123 5091 8495 4064 9816 2263 18484 5959 5481 4683 17246 5446 4972 5852 7199 1203 1632 20086 29351 5048 4515 21591 4228 6464 36916 12915 13506 12753 5326 4387 5089 6155 13404 1513 4002 6211 4133 5034 4278 5218 6857 4603 7705 10080 12287 13681 21120 6679 7172 14918 7702 4686 5165 17774 13477 17304 4379 3234 19103 5106 14702 12604 9716 15549 4488 5103 2644 9380 8862 4660 2651 10659 5750 16750 7632 3647 925 27307 14589 5279 4499 4514 20617 22145 23380 20310 15896 6301 7235 5405 7443 4038 7350 5549 1104 7876 3838 3645 5678 12949 25380 14620 4464 7578 22306 6070 7431 22024 5291 4692 5494 9278 6001 4672 11266
Last daily increment 17 39 56 42 60 25 76 12 94 129 55 18 47 39 51 41 76 80 485 38 54 53 37 120 18 196 34 57 46 66 153 14 60 118 39 80 24 48 27 21 56 25 18 61 30 24 38 29 84 41 50 13 31 102 104 28 27 26 43 94 18 55 70 9 131 136 7 37 122 38 34 39 17 112 22 69 102 25 121 181 15 10 34 23 47 24 62 68 52 35 41 15 9 75 17 27 38 4 33 33 26 12 34 42 33 34 24 32 33 99 37 74 9 56 29 66 27 17 92 20 21 14 40 69 34 37 37 158 24 37 134 42 31 31 28 47 34 45 79 55 59 58 95 94 36 177 174 15 89 64 11 236 115 54 17 15 201 45 66 11 15 97 13 17 17 75 87 12 42 45 66 32 112 4 32 25 32 37 43 20 44 70 13 25 121 67 56 136 34 24 101 44 29 94 29 80 83 64 102 51 52 69 14 49 10 73 16 15 10 62 42 23 34 43 18 3 92 198 19 32 130 19 19 90 111 80 72 46 16 38 42 78 8 26 49 8 34 16 25 49 35 44 32 86 68 86 44 23 103 33 18 38 101 79 90 14 22 127 16 84 40 37 54 33 20 12 74 54 42 14 45 20 55 24 31 1 50 56 19 19 31 82 208 77 99 97 35 36 20 28 34 43 42 10 36 12 11 47 51 117 91 47 43 106 35 33 141 35 29 41 62 50 28 37
Last week 98 241 309 357 378 183 406 74 508 809 393 148 360 234 243 218 500 401 3424 197 447 274 227 670 132 1042 244 915 323 318 943 85 342 840 227 511 148 200 211 208 324 250 152 300 237 154 188 175 548 300 309 94 207 588 657 222 165 146 235 385 108 291 498 59 984 857 55 293 790 281 184 208 135 719 104 557 558 126 901 1116 135 96 173 161 189 168 381 354 282 220 242 97 134 608 196 135 255 45 170 211 212 85 167 313 240 208 189 220 227 581 241 379 116 382 146 474 174 217 627 123 204 173 202 466 197 228 168 895 226 196 904 281 208 248 167 321 221 315 376 339 322 721 516 635 271 1354 1024 149 552 241 106 1231 649 259 99 100 1273 300 498 74 122 471 86 98 152 404 506 85 203 220 385 200 859 23 197 135 240 174 199 122 260 402 116 195 657 441 332 929 257 139 438 281 227 565 208 456 429 372 679 299 269 313 120 341 79 460 128 117 121 458 223 145 198 251 89 46 580 1204 84 171 705 139 141 874 557 439 490 258 103 245 252 441 40 190 285 80 185 117 144 302 229 280 235 483 325 536 223 198 591 183 105 230 590 459 522 134 125 766 144 488 194 324 416 230 142 98 437 383 265 84 235 141 342 152 196 9 471 384 161 93 140 611 1064 503 566 515 199 272 155 171 194 319 228 33 199 91 109 221 345 688 564 170 223 651 187 231 808 232 166 295 374 238 196 281
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --09-17 --10-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- -- --10-26 --10-13 -- --10-18 --10-11 -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-01 -- --09-30 -- --09-2910-21 -- -- -- --10-2910-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --10-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 -- -- --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 63 29 77 72 95 163 99 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 29 293 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 296 360 152 86 541 75 529 611 61 71 391 51 58 68 608 256 82 102 43 41 196 64 67 237 232 183 435 87 25 66 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 89 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 137 38 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 61 95 20 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 6 70 58 19 40 13 12 62 22 14 49 91 26 119 34 10 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 35 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 18 15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-03 to 2021-02-09

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-02 2677 4319 7641 7084 7999 9184 10418 3570 21889 28147 15462 3787 16727 7304 6675 7568 12004 20987 88703 5990 16113 8237 5102 22055 4005 22827 6387 40773 9994 5722 25971 6511 13348 27463 5421 22973 5580 8623 6059 9122 15018 12115 5056 13106 6187 9517 7682 7851 14027 10458 11860 3394 8307 18216 19113 5256 4315 3837 6757 10140 2640 4250 12721 2342 33306 20461 2529 6975 28737 7654 6271 9666 3629 17543 2433 19155 10089 7351 23521 27779 2591 3649 4397 7622 5559 3854 15424 8113 7816 6194 4935 2766 6776 28185 11843 4811 5890 4568 4553 4155 7620 2786 4155 12292 6877 5935 3352 9669 4932 20866 6742 10863 3706 11764 4326 19538 7332 6777 18783 3924 7787 5816 6386 25414 6089 7621 4274 23600 5094 5171 22189 6466 6989 6616 6310 14042 8192 4847 6465 16093 11140 28250 15890 22475 8308 52753 30925 4498 20434 5706 6177 44268 17201 11934 3523 2305 46528 6660 24791 2235 2985 14782 1886 2955 6236 10517 17873 4020 5415 5880 21235 7478 33086 1844 5239 7056 5700 4763 7471 2736 9017 10642 3521 4808 15741 15254 6537 26778 7278 4366 20278 8454 8878 12327 8300 12746 11742 9891 30785 8123 5091 8495 4064 9816 2263 18484 5959 5481 4683 17246 5446 4972 5852 7199 1203 1632 20086 29351 5048 4515 21591 4228 6464 36916 12915 13506 12753 5326 4387 5089 6155 13404 1513 4002 6211 4133 5034 4278 5218 6857 4603 7705 10080 12287 13681 21120 6679 7172 14918 7702 4686 5165 17774 13477 17304 4379 3234 19103 5106 14702 12604 9716 15549 4488 5103 2644 9380 8862 4660 2651 10659 5750 16750 7632 3647 925 27307 14589 5279 4499 4514 20617 22145 23380 20310 15896 6301 7235 5405 7443 4038 7350 5549 1104 7876 3838 3645 5678 12949 25380 14620 4464 7578 22306 6070 7431 22024 5291 4692 5494 9278 6001 4672 11266
2021-02-03 2698 4361 7751 7301 8114 9206 10490 3590 21970 28250 15600 3814 16750 7325 6751 7681 12080 21020 89370 6024 16320 8307 5146 22170 4020 23070 6419 41180 10100 5782 26090 6531 13540 27820 5527 23020 5635 8652 6158 9221 15130 12230 5078 13190 6236 9587 7762 7886 14120 10530 11940 3412 8338 18520 19260 5351 4334 3851 6796 10230 2655 4299 13210 2391 33490 20620 2554 6993 28900 7709 6357 9683 3646 17710 2454 19260 10340 7379 23770 27950 2613 3738 4481 7649 5587 3922 15560 8210 7878 6278 4968 2786 6790 28290 11920 4838 5932 4571 4611 4254 7666 2864 4186 12350 6969 5949 3386 9698 4969 20920 6783 10910 3727 11930 4351 19640 7383 6816 18860 3945 7837 5948 6425 25470 6170 7695 4303 23690 5131 5204 22350 6624 7031 6725 6387 14120 8252 4897 6583 16200 11190 28510 15980 22560 8361 53250 31130 4533 20490 5787 6202 44450 17310 12050 3545 2325 46890 6718 24840 2249 3012 14840 1901 2972 6262 10650 17970 4042 5457 5920 21300 7558 33250 1849 5313 7078 5795 4793 7502 2747 9075 10700 3541 4845 15880 15430 6561 26940 7328 4388 20400 8535 8920 12580 8359 12820 11820 9980 30840 8245 5133 8555 4089 9880 2271 18620 6043 5494 4712 17410 5488 5000 5886 7241 1215 1634 20180 29660 5057 4603 21750 4254 6487 37250 13090 13640 12850 5463 4396 5132 6236 13470 1534 4066 6261 4140 5048 4298 5243 6910 4692 7745 10130 12400 13750 21240 6711 7212 15030 7769 4744 5206 17920 13530 17340 4410 3254 19280 5151 14790 12650 9780 15730 4549 5136 2663 9526 8900 4708 2667 10690 5760 16870 7680 3678 939 27340 14760 5339 4519 4541 20780 22380 23480 20590 16100 6313 7321 5443 7602 4122 7420 5676 1112 7922 3854 3666 5821 13020 25490 14710 4496 7624 22440 6109 7482 22220 5365 4800 5550 9325 6056 4707 11300
2021-02-04 2717 4400 7793 7377 8168 9215 10560 3610 22030 28280 15670 3841 16770 7344 6792 7722 12150 21050 89970 6055 16390 8352 5190 22280 4046 23210 6450 41310 10200 5840 26150 6551 13590 27980 5566 23070 5664 8677 6198 9259 15180 12270 5097 13200 6257 9587 7785 7919 14200 10590 12010 3430 8365 18640 19330 5397 4349 3864 6831 10310 2668 4346 13390 2399 33670 20750 2554 7009 29070 7762 6390 9696 3662 17840 2474 19350 10460 7407 23910 28120 2634 3780 4506 7672 5612 3951 15620 8266 7939 6316 5003 2805 6804 28400 11990 4865 5971 4575 4635 4284 7712 2891 4216 12400 7013 5958 3420 9726 4979 20970 6823 10970 3749 12000 4373 19740 7388 6854 18940 3965 7865 5998 6463 25530 6208 7714 4332 23780 5168 5234 22500 6687 7059 6776 6387 14190 8311 4946 6643 16250 11240 28600 16070 22640 8367 53450 31280 4566 20540 5824 6229 44510 17410 12100 3566 2345 47100 6774 24890 2263 3039 14890 1915 2987 6271 10720 18050 4064 5483 5958 21370 7595 33410 1854 5351 7098 5843 4823 7532 2758 9114 10760 3560 4881 16010 15490 6582 27090 7377 4410 20470 8589 8951 12680 8398 12840 11890 10060 30890 8292 5170 8590 4114 9940 2279 18690 6071 5507 4720 17490 5528 5027 5920 7280 1226 1637 20250 29870 5066 4626 21800 4280 6508 37400 13200 13700 12930 5498 4404 5174 6288 13500 1553 4096 6311 4149 5061 4318 5265 6962 4731 7754 10170 12460 13820 21350 6741 7251 15100 7790 4761 5246 18020 13560 17380 4426 3274 19390 5197 14870 12660 9830 15810 4596 5169 2682 9609 8930 4756 2684 10710 5771 16920 7704 3708 939 27380 14820 5367 4537 4564 20880 22570 23570 20700 16190 6324 7385 5479 7637 4162 7460 5738 1120 7949 3870 3687 5858 13060 25580 14740 4520 7669 22530 6146 7506 22360 5402 4837 5605 9369 6095 4740 11330
2021-02-05 2737 4441 7844 7450 8235 9233 10630 3630 22100 28340 15730 3868 16790 7362 6822 7776 12220 21080 90440 6087 16460 8391 5234 22400 4060 23370 6481 41460 10290 5899 26200 6572 13670 28130 5604 23110 5688 8704 6230 9289 15240 12310 5118 13220 6286 9587 7801 7953 14280 10630 12080 3447 8394 18770 19410 5431 4365 3876 6867 10390 2682 4393 13580 2410 33850 20870 2560 7026 29230 7817 6412 9710 3678 17960 2494 19430 10540 7435 24060 28290 2655 3811 4534 7696 5638 3980 15690 8325 7999 6347 5038 2825 6818 28500 12060 4891 6011 4579 4656 4317 7758 2923 4246 12450 7053 5965 3454 9754 4980 21030 6863 11020 3770 12070 4396 19840 7406 6893 19020 3985 7896 6041 6502 25590 6259 7743 4360 23870 5206 5265 22660 6755 7089 6825 6387 14260 8369 4995 6718 16310 11290 28720 16160 22730 8367 53660 31410 4599 20590 5865 6255 44610 17510 12140 3587 2364 47330 6831 24940 2276 3066 14950 1930 3002 6280 10780 18140 4085 5515 5997 21440 7624 33570 1860 5381 7119 5907 4852 7561 2769 9138 10820 3579 4918 16090 15560 6606 27240 7426 4432 20540 8646 8970 12770 8438 12860 11970 10150 30940 8338 5209 8628 4138 10000 2288 18760 6095 5521 4736 17560 5569 5054 5954 7321 1238 1640 20340 30080 5075 4650 21840 4305 6529 37540 13310 13770 13000 5544 4413 5216 6325 13530 1571 4127 6360 4156 5075 4338 5288 7014 4775 7763 10210 12530 13890 21460 6772 7291 15160 7821 4779 5287 18120 13580 17420 4440 3294 19510 5242 14960 12680 9890 15870 4622 5202 2701 9695 8966 4803 2700 10730 5782 16970 7732 3739 940 27410 14910 5407 4554 4588 20960 22750 23660 20840 16310 6337 7436 5516 7677 4188 7499 5796 1128 7968 3886 3708 5909 13090 25650 14790 4546 7714 22630 6183 7527 22490 5449 4867 5660 9414 6131 4774 11360
2021-02-06 2756 4480 7884 7479 8282 9257 10690 3649 22170 28360 15780 3895 16830 7377 6848 7806 12290 21110 90810 6118 16520 8417 5277 22510 4078 23510 6512 41590 10390 5957 26240 6592 13710 28280 5645 23150 5709 8729 6258 9308 15290 12340 5137 13230 6308 9587 7801 7987 14360 10670 12160 3465 8422 18890 19470 5459 4380 3887 6902 10470 2695 4440 13690 2415 34030 21020 2560 7042 29390 7870 6443 9721 3694 18060 2514 19490 10600 7463 24180 28450 2675 3830 4548 7718 5661 4001 15730 8356 8059 6364 5059 2844 6832 28600 12130 4917 6050 4583 4677 4344 7804 2943 4276 12510 7078 5966 3488 9782 4980 21080 6901 11070 3791 12120 4418 19940 7422 6931 19090 4004 7927 6074 6539 25640 6290 7758 4388 23960 5243 5295 22790 6810 7108 6859 6387 14340 8427 5044 6751 16350 11330 28820 16250 22810 8367 53850 31470 4633 20640 5881 6281 44660 17610 12160 3608 2384 47520 6888 24980 2290 3094 15000 1944 3016 6287 10830 18220 4106 5531 6035 21500 7643 33730 1865 5408 7139 5942 4881 7590 2779 9172 10870 3598 4954 16210 15610 6627 27390 7475 4453 20600 8691 8984 12850 8460 12900 12040 10230 30990 8374 5246 8628 4162 10060 2297 18810 6125 5535 4755 17620 5610 5081 5987 7360 1249 1642 20410 30230 5084 4671 21860 4331 6550 37660 13360 13820 13080 5574 4420 5258 6353 13570 1589 4147 6409 4164 5088 4357 5310 7066 4798 7765 10260 12600 13960 21560 6802 7331 15220 7844 4792 5327 18190 13600 17450 4455 3314 19610 5288 15040 12710 9950 15930 4650 5235 2720 9749 8997 4851 2716 10760 5793 17010 7754 3768 942 27440 14960 5429 4571 4611 21040 22890 23750 20930 16370 6349 7475 5553 7699 4214 7524 5847 1136 7981 3901 3728 5926 13110 25730 14820 4556 7757 22700 6220 7552 22580 5481 4885 5716 9457 6163 4806 11390
2021-02-07 2776 4519 7923 7498 8322 9296 10750 3669 22230 28380 15850 3922 16830 7393 6881 7833 12350 21130 91070 6148 16590 8447 5321 22620 4089 23670 6542 41750 10490 6016 26300 6612 13750 28380 5681 23190 5723 8754 6279 9332 15340 12380 5156 13230 6326 9587 7817 8020 14440 10710 12230 3483 8449 19040 19540 5485 4394 3899 6937 10550 2708 4486 13780 2420 34210 21070 2560 7058 29560 7924 6459 9732 3710 18120 2533 19580 10650 7491 24320 28620 2695 3853 4550 7741 5685 4018 15780 8386 8119 6368 5076 2863 6846 28700 12200 4943 6088 4587 4689 4374 7850 2959 4306 12560 7097 5974 3522 9810 4995 21130 6940 11120 3813 12160 4441 20040 7447 6970 19170 4024 7937 6094 6576 25690 6319 7765 4415 24050 5281 5325 22890 6864 7120 6881 6387 14410 8486 5093 6800 16400 11380 28930 16340 22890 8367 54070 31620 4666 20690 5914 6307 44750 17710 12210 3630 2404 47670 6944 25030 2304 3121 15060 1959 3030 6287 10880 18310 4127 5551 6072 21570 7668 33890 1870 5438 7158 5954 4910 7618 2790 9208 10930 3617 4991 16270 15670 6648 27540 7525 4474 20640 8707 9007 12930 8485 12930 12110 10320 31040 8414 5283 8642 4186 10120 2305 18870 6154 5548 4770 17690 5651 5108 6020 7399 1260 1645 20510 30360 5092 4680 21880 4357 6570 37790 13400 13860 13110 5605 4428 5301 6372 13640 1606 4175 6459 4171 5102 4377 5332 7117 4820 7770 10300 12680 14030 21670 6832 7370 15290 7891 4806 5367 18280 13640 17480 4459 3333 19720 5334 15120 12710 10000 15990 4681 5268 2739 9813 9029 4898 2732 10780 5804 17050 7776 3798 943 27470 15020 5447 4588 4634 21120 22990 23840 21010 16440 6360 7497 5590 7713 4227 7553 5900 1144 8005 3917 3749 5952 13130 25800 14830 4570 7801 22810 6256 7574 22660 5510 4902 5772 9500 6193 4839 11420
2021-02-08 2795 4558 7976 7563 8397 9316 10820 3688 22300 28430 15920 3949 16860 7409 6929 7868 12420 21160 91540 6178 16670 8494 5364 22730 4117 23840 6573 41940 10580 6075 26350 6632 13830 28540 5725 23230 5757 8779 6317 9373 15410 12430 5175 13230 6345 9587 7825 8054 14520 10760 12310 3501 8477 19190 19640 5521 4409 3911 6971 10630 2721 4533 13950 2435 34390 21210 2560 7073 29720 7979 6498 9743 3726 18230 2553 19670 10770 7519 24480 28780 2716 3879 4592 7764 5709 4042 15860 8449 8179 6399 5110 2882 6860 28800 12270 4969 6127 4591 4723 4418 7897 2989 4336 12610 7139 5989 3556 9837 5004 21180 6979 11170 3834 12240 4463 20140 7481 7009 19240 4043 7974 6148 6614 25740 6364 7791 4443 24130 5319 5354 23040 6929 7162 6921 6387 14480 8544 5141 6860 16470 11420 29070 16420 22970 8387 54280 31750 4699 20740 5944 6334 44830 17810 12260 3651 2423 47900 7001 25070 2318 3149 15110 1973 3044 6288 10960 18390 4148 5582 6111 21640 7703 34050 1876 5467 7178 5999 4939 7647 2800 9257 10990 3636 5028 16370 15760 6669 27690 7574 4496 20710 8764 9046 13030 8517 12980 12190 10400 31080 8470 5321 8677 4210 10180 2314 18960 6188 5562 4779 17780 5691 5135 6053 7438 1271 1647 20600 30560 5101 4710 21920 4383 6590 37950 13510 13930 13170 5656 4436 5343 6416 13690 1624 4215 6508 4179 5115 4396 5353 7169 4868 7781 10350 12770 14090 21780 6863 7410 15360 7920 4821 5407 18380 13690 17520 4476 3353 19830 5380 15210 12730 10060 16050 4719 5301 2758 9909 9060 4946 2749 10810 5815 17110 7801 3828 945 27500 15100 5469 4605 4657 21240 23190 23930 21150 16520 6372 7545 5626 7755 4261 7598 5968 1152 8036 3932 3770 5987 13160 25880 14900 4604 7845 22920 6293 7606 22800 5558 4938 5828 9543 6231 4872 11450
2021-02-09 2814 4597 8040 7628 8461 9345 10880 3708 22370 28560 15980 3976 16910 7425 6985 7912 12490 21190 92130 6209 16740 8548 5408 22840 4135 24040 6604 42040 10680 6134 26500 6653 13900 28680 5769 23260 5785 8804 6355 9405 15470 12470 5194 13280 6387 9612 7868 8087 14600 10810 12380 3519 8505 19290 19760 5559 4423 3923 7006 10710 2733 4580 14040 2447 34570 21350 2564 7089 29890 8033 6533 9754 3742 18360 2573 19760 10880 7546 24610 28950 2737 3889 4632 7786 5733 4076 15920 8517 8239 6445 5158 2902 6874 28900 12340 4996 6167 4596 4761 4456 7943 2999 4367 12670 7181 6029 3590 9865 5044 21240 7018 11220 3856 12310 4485 20240 7505 7048 19320 4063 8003 6175 6651 25800 6398 7839 4471 24220 5356 5384 23180 6969 7200 6965 6419 14560 8603 5191 6934 16520 11470 29160 16510 23050 8442 54500 31940 4732 20790 6005 6360 45060 17910 12320 3672 2443 48110 7058 25120 2331 3177 15170 1988 3059 6308 11040 18470 4169 5623 6149 21700 7739 34200 1881 5502 7198 6037 4968 7676 2811 9303 11040 3655 5065 16480 15830 6690 27850 7624 4517 20800 8807 9087 13140 8550 13060 12260 10490 31130 8529 5358 8751 4234 10240 2323 19040 6210 5576 4789 17850 5732 5162 6087 7477 1282 1650 20690 30790 5109 4748 22070 4409 6610 38080 13620 14030 13260 5710 4444 5385 6463 13760 1642 4244 6557 4186 5129 4416 5375 7221 4904 7834 10390 12860 14160 21890 6893 7450 15480 7949 4842 5447 18490 13770 17550 4497 3373 19950 5426 15290 12770 10120 16120 4755 5334 2777 9986 9092 4994 2765 10830 5826 17170 7827 3858 948 27530 15160 5500 4621 4680 21340 23400 24020 21250 16620 6383 7591 5663 7806 4309 7651 5999 1160 8076 3948 3790 6034 13220 26000 15010 4646 7890 23020 6330 7643 22970 5602 4976 5885 9586 6280 4905 11480

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-03 to 2021-02-09

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-02 2677 4319 7641 7084 7999 9184 10418 3570 21889 28147 15462 3787 16727 7304 6675 7568 12004 20987 88703 5990 16113 8237 5102 22055 4005 22827 6387 40773 9994 5722 25971 6511 13348 27463 5421 22973 5580 8623 6059 9122 15018 12115 5056 13106 6187 9517 7682 7851 14027 10458 11860 3394 8307 18216 19113 5256 4315 3837 6757 10140 2640 4250 12721 2342 33306 20461 2529 6975 28737 7654 6271 9666 3629 17543 2433 19155 10089 7351 23521 27779 2591 3649 4397 7622 5559 3854 15424 8113 7816 6194 4935 2766 6776 28185 11843 4811 5890 4568 4553 4155 7620 2786 4155 12292 6877 5935 3352 9669 4932 20866 6742 10863 3706 11764 4326 19538 7332 6777 18783 3924 7787 5816 6386 25414 6089 7621 4274 23600 5094 5171 22189 6466 6989 6616 6310 14042 8192 4847 6465 16093 11140 28250 15890 22475 8308 52753 30925 4498 20434 5706 6177 44268 17201 11934 3523 2305 46528 6660 24791 2235 2985 14782 1886 2955 6236 10517 17873 4020 5415 5880 21235 7478 33086 1844 5239 7056 5700 4763 7471 2736 9017 10642 3521 4808 15741 15254 6537 26778 7278 4366 20278 8454 8878 12327 8300 12746 11742 9891 30785 8123 5091 8495 4064 9816 2263 18484 5959 5481 4683 17246 5446 4972 5852 7199 1203 1632 20086 29351 5048 4515 21591 4228 6464 36916 12915 13506 12753 5326 4387 5089 6155 13404 1513 4002 6211 4133 5034 4278 5218 6857 4603 7705 10080 12287 13681 21120 6679 7172 14918 7702 4686 5165 17774 13477 17304 4379 3234 19103 5106 14702 12604 9716 15549 4488 5103 2644 9380 8862 4660 2651 10659 5750 16750 7632 3647 925 27307 14589 5279 4499 4514 20617 22145 23380 20310 15896 6301 7235 5405 7443 4038 7350 5549 1104 7876 3838 3645 5678 12949 25380 14620 4464 7578 22306 6070 7431 22024 5291 4692 5494 9278 6001 4672 11266
2021-02-03 2692 4357 7694 7151 8054 9203 10480 3582 21970 28260 15530 3808 16770 7338 6724 7613 12080 21040 89240 6021 16180 8287 5142 22170 4030 23000 6422 40950 10050 5775 26080 6524 13420 27630 5468 23050 5610 8657 6100 9148 15080 12160 5078 13160 6223 9534 7714 7878 14100 10510 11910 3408 8341 18320 19220 5296 4339 3857 6787 10210 2655 4297 12840 2358 33460 20590 2538 7010 28860 7698 6308 9696 3648 17660 2452 19240 10190 7372 23660 27920 2610 3669 4433 7645 5593 3891 15500 8180 7861 6229 4968 2782 6790 28270 11870 4831 5933 4573 4584 4202 7629 2806 4179 12340 6919 5963 3381 9700 4964 20950 6772 10910 3721 11840 4349 19590 7361 6808 18880 3940 7819 5848 6421 25490 6134 7658 4304 23740 5126 5204 22300 6519 7026 6661 6345 14090 8230 4895 6509 16150 11190 28400 15970 22580 8344 52970 31090 4519 20510 5755 6190 44420 17300 11970 3538 2322 46740 6712 24860 2247 3003 14850 1900 2969 6252 10590 17950 4034 5447 5916 21300 7517 33230 1848 5267 7082 5748 4794 7504 2755 9060 10710 3542 4837 15840 15330 6592 26930 7322 4387 20360 8502 8912 12450 8327 12810 11810 9960 30870 8174 5131 8541 4083 9870 2274 18560 5983 5498 4701 17320 5485 4995 5885 7230 1216 1635 20190 29550 5062 4546 21680 4249 6484 37070 13020 13570 12820 5376 4402 5127 6197 13470 1521 4040 6258 4145 5055 4294 5233 6903 4644 7734 10120 12360 13740 21200 6711 7203 14990 7735 4709 5199 17860 13550 17380 4404 3255 19230 5126 14780 12630 9760 15620 4526 5125 2658 9459 8910 4695 2665 10690 5773 16820 7655 3676 929 27360 14670 5303 4516 4533 20720 22330 23470 20430 15980 6328 7278 5428 7488 4070 7392 5594 1111 7910 3852 3659 5726 13000 25480 14700 4495 7612 22370 6101 7473 22150 5335 4724 5541 9337 6042 4702 11310
2021-02-04 2710 4391 7740 7229 8111 9225 10540 3595 22060 28430 15600 3832 16810 7371 6766 7653 12150 21110 89810 6049 16250 8330 5182 22270 4053 23140 6458 41110 10110 5830 26210 6538 13480 27780 5501 23120 5632 8687 6139 9185 15130 12210 5098 13200 6258 9563 7753 7904 14170 10560 11950 3424 8365 18410 19320 5338 4361 3875 6823 10270 2671 4340 12950 2370 33630 20710 2545 7061 29000 7745 6342 9727 3670 17790 2471 19320 10290 7392 23800 28100 2627 3690 4461 7670 5617 3922 15560 8232 7899 6274 5001 2797 6808 28360 11900 4858 5968 4578 4609 4237 7671 2819 4210 12390 6956 5995 3413 9735 5002 21030 6803 10970 3740 11900 4372 19670 7383 6843 18980 3955 7848 5878 6449 25550 6156 7693 4331 23870 5161 5234 22430 6565 7059 6705 6380 14150 8263 4941 6562 16200 11250 28510 16040 22690 8385 53180 31270 4545 20600 5794 6217 44580 17420 12010 3552 2338 46950 6759 24930 2261 3026 14920 1913 2981 6276 10660 18030 4051 5474 5957 21360 7550 33360 1853 5303 7102 5787 4822 7532 2780 9094 10770 3562 4871 15930 15400 6645 27080 7367 4407 20430 8544 8949 12550 8352 12870 11880 10030 30980 8224 5167 8599 4103 9930 2285 18630 6001 5515 4720 17400 5519 5016 5918 7267 1226 1641 20270 29760 5072 4571 21780 4272 6505 37230 13100 13630 12900 5416 4421 5168 6246 13530 1528 4071 6304 4163 5086 4312 5259 6951 4684 7780 10160 12430 13780 21280 6746 7238 15070 7763 4727 5233 17950 13620 17450 4424 3275 19340 5157 14860 12660 9810 15690 4570 5151 2672 9524 8958 4741 2680 10730 5800 16870 7678 3702 931 27430 14720 5327 4527 4557 20820 22510 23560 20520 16060 6355 7318 5449 7516 4107 7441 5635 1118 7940 3864 3675 5768 13060 25580 14770 4515 7648 22460 6125 7509 22280 5366 4756 5590 9393 6074 4732 11340
2021-02-05 2727 4425 7791 7300 8178 9246 10590 3607 22140 28540 15670 3854 16860 7402 6802 7699 12220 21180 90310 6078 16320 8371 5226 22370 4070 23280 6494 41270 10160 5884 26340 6553 13540 27920 5534 23190 5650 8718 6175 9212 15180 12250 5117 13250 6299 9583 7782 7937 14240 10610 12000 3444 8384 18490 19430 5378 4383 3892 6855 10330 2686 4384 13060 2383 33790 20850 2555 7103 29130 7790 6371 9758 3689 17910 2491 19410 10380 7411 23940 28280 2644 3704 4487 7692 5640 3952 15620 8285 7937 6312 5035 2813 6825 28450 11940 4879 6009 4583 4634 4272 7704 2832 4238 12440 6993 6026 3446 9769 5036 21110 6834 11020 3759 11960 4396 19750 7406 6880 19080 3969 7878 5905 6476 25600 6192 7732 4358 24000 5195 5262 22550 6609 7087 6748 6414 14200 8298 4988 6630 16250 11300 28630 16120 22770 8424 53390 31440 4574 20670 5834 6240 44740 17520 12050 3567 2355 47160 6807 24990 2275 3051 14990 1925 2992 6293 10720 18100 4069 5500 5988 21410 7583 33500 1858 5335 7121 5833 4849 7561 2798 9123 10820 3582 4905 16020 15470 6697 27230 7413 4428 20490 8588 8981 12640 8378 12930 11950 10100 31080 8275 5203 8654 4122 9980 2296 18700 6019 5532 4744 17470 5553 5039 5950 7298 1237 1645 20360 29940 5084 4597 21870 4295 6526 37390 13170 13710 12970 5460 4438 5209 6286 13590 1536 4103 6360 4176 5120 4330 5287 6996 4726 7825 10200 12500 13830 21370 6781 7272 15140 7792 4747 5266 18040 13690 17520 4442 3298 19450 5186 14930 12680 9860 15760 4597 5177 2687 9594 9006 4792 2695 10760 5822 16910 7705 3741 933 27510 14780 5356 4539 4577 20900 22680 23650 20610 16150 6384 7357 5469 7544 4140 7488 5671 1125 7966 3876 3692 5818 13120 25670 14840 4536 7684 22530 6151 7540 22390 5404 4781 5638 9449 6105 4762 11380
2021-02-06 2743 4458 7832 7335 8222 9267 10650 3620 22220 28630 15730 3876 16910 7430 6837 7720 12290 21240 90750 6107 16390 8409 5257 22470 4088 23410 6528 41430 10200 5935 26450 6568 13570 28040 5566 23260 5665 8748 6207 9232 15220 12290 5136 13290 6331 9605 7802 7966 14310 10650 12050 3457 8402 18570 19520 5415 4405 3909 6881 10390 2701 4428 13130 2395 33940 20970 2563 7135 29240 7832 6403 9789 3706 18000 2509 19460 10460 7430 24080 28420 2661 3715 4510 7714 5663 3977 15670 8332 7973 6321 5062 2828 6843 28530 11970 4898 6045 4589 4658 4297 7727 2845 4265 12480 7025 6054 3476 9804 5067 21180 6863 11060 3778 12010 4419 19820 7429 6915 19160 3981 7907 5926 6502 25650 6211 7764 4385 24110 5229 5286 22660 6649 7108 6777 6449 14260 8329 5035 6662 16290 11360 28740 16200 22860 8449 53590 31520 4603 20730 5868 6258 44880 17620 12070 3581 2369 47340 6854 25050 2289 3072 15060 1936 3004 6309 10780 18170 4086 5525 6022 21470 7615 33610 1863 5362 7140 5864 4876 7589 2810 9153 10870 3603 4937 16110 15520 6749 27370 7452 4448 20550 8620 9010 12710 8398 13000 12010 10170 31180 8319 5239 8669 4142 10020 2305 18750 6040 5550 4769 17530 5588 5059 5981 7330 1248 1648 20430 30050 5091 4618 21940 4318 6547 37530 13240 13770 13040 5495 4455 5240 6318 13660 1542 4129 6396 4190 5142 4346 5303 7039 4754 7858 10240 12570 13870 21430 6813 7305 15220 7820 4763 5300 18120 13750 17570 4459 3314 19570 5211 15000 12710 9910 15830 4624 5204 2701 9652 9055 4834 2709 10790 5840 16950 7723 3758 936 27560 14820 5376 4550 4596 20980 22820 23720 20680 16210 6410 7394 5490 7566 4170 7529 5702 1131 7978 3888 3706 5835 13150 25740 14910 4549 7717 22590 6176 7569 22470 5433 4801 5685 9505 6136 4792 11420
2021-02-07 2757 4492 7872 7377 8257 9292 10700 3633 22280 28730 15800 3896 16950 7458 6873 7739 12350 21300 91130 6136 16450 8447 5293 22560 4104 23540 6561 41600 10240 5986 26600 6582 13610 28120 5597 23330 5677 8779 6240 9259 15270 12340 5154 13320 6363 9638 7821 7992 14380 10690 12090 3469 8419 18660 19620 5451 4427 3926 6903 10450 2716 4472 13190 2407 34050 21060 2570 7164 29340 7877 6429 9820 3726 18070 2527 19530 10530 7449 24210 28520 2678 3726 4525 7732 5686 3998 15730 8378 8013 6323 5086 2844 6861 28620 12000 4913 6082 4594 4679 4319 7776 2855 4286 12530 7057 6084 3505 9839 5101 21260 6891 11100 3797 12060 4442 19880 7453 6943 19230 3991 7934 5944 6528 25710 6230 7795 4412 24230 5263 5300 22760 6687 7125 6803 6484 14310 8355 5083 6707 16340 11410 28850 16270 22920 8466 53800 31680 4628 20790 5905 6277 45050 17720 12100 3596 2384 47480 6902 25100 2303 3094 15120 1949 3016 6323 10840 18250 4103 5551 6048 21530 7647 33710 1867 5393 7160 5884 4904 7617 2823 9181 10930 3623 4967 16190 15590 6802 27520 7488 4469 20620 8639 9038 12780 8417 13060 12070 10240 31280 8364 5276 8699 4161 10070 2315 18820 6062 5567 4783 17600 5622 5078 6012 7358 1257 1650 20520 30130 5103 4635 22020 4341 6568 37690 13290 13820 13090 5536 4472 5274 6344 13720 1548 4160 6439 4201 5165 4363 5326 7084 4785 7886 10290 12640 13910 21480 6844 7340 15280 7851 4778 5334 18220 13820 17630 4469 3329 19680 5231 15060 12730 9950 15890 4654 5230 2718 9711 9103 4877 2723 10810 5860 16990 7740 3778 938 27610 14860 5392 4558 4609 21050 22930 23780 20740 16290 6435 7430 5509 7583 4194 7576 5728 1138 8004 3900 3717 5855 13190 25790 14970 4564 7749 22670 6195 7590 22530 5453 4822 5727 9561 6167 4822 11450
2021-02-08 2776 4526 7934 7454 8346 9326 10760 3646 22350 28840 15890 3919 17010 7493 6921 7776 12430 21360 91660 6165 16550 8491 5343 22660 4124 23700 6605 41800 10310 6041 26770 6598 13670 28270 5631 23400 5703 8810 6286 9303 15330 12390 5174 13360 6398 9689 7846 8018 14450 10730 12140 3484 8437 18760 19730 5492 4449 3944 6937 10510 2732 4517 13300 2421 34280 21190 2576 7204 29450 7921 6476 9851 3746 18170 2549 19610 10670 7468 24360 28720 2696 3741 4562 7759 5709 4026 15800 8429 8058 6357 5113 2860 6879 28700 12060 4933 6118 4600 4706 4382 7837 2868 4317 12580 7092 6126 3539 9873 5150 21340 6925 11180 3816 12120 4466 19980 7479 6982 19330 4007 7965 5984 6558 25770 6261 7836 4439 24370 5299 5325 22920 6746 7157 6844 6520 14370 8392 5131 6791 16410 11470 29000 16350 23010 8527 54100 31850 4656 20870 5944 6311 45260 17830 12150 3612 2405 47690 6951 25170 2317 3127 15190 1961 3028 6345 10930 18320 4121 5578 6088 21590 7681 33830 1872 5433 7181 5927 4932 7646 2840 9215 10990 3645 5002 16270 15680 6855 27670 7538 4490 20680 8695 9079 12910 8444 13130 12150 10310 31380 8428 5313 8777 4181 10120 2327 18910 6090 5584 4804 17720 5657 5098 6045 7401 1270 1659 20610 30330 5120 4671 22130 4365 6590 37880 13360 13910 13150 5596 4491 5316 6399 13790 1555 4200 6497 4219 5214 4382 5363 7134 4839 7954 10330 12720 13960 21540 6881 7375 15380 7881 4803 5368 18310 13900 17700 4491 3347 19790 5259 15140 12760 10000 15980 4696 5257 2733 9781 9153 4929 2739 10850 5881 17040 7762 3810 941 27670 14920 5415 4573 4635 21180 23090 23870 20830 16380 6463 7469 5541 7614 4236 7635 5777 1145 8041 3913 3730 5921 13260 25880 15050 4588 7788 22790 6221 7624 22650 5490 4853 5779 9619 6199 4852 11490
2021-02-09 2795 4560 8001 7524 8417 9352 10810 3659 22420 28940 15970 3942 17060 7523 6978 7824 12500 21420 92230 6195 16650 8539 5390 22770 4143 23840 6641 42000 10370 6097 26950 6618 13740 28410 5669 23480 5729 8841 6332 9348 15380 12450 5195 13410 6443 9748 7896 8049 14520 10780 12180 3499 8454 18860 19850 5540 4472 3962 6971 10580 2748 4562 13410 2434 34480 21320 2589 7256 29580 7966 6515 9883 3764 18280 2568 19690 10790 7488 24510 28880 2713 3752 4593 7786 5732 4062 15860 8486 8095 6394 5151 2876 6897 28790 12100 4951 6157 4605 4736 4435 7887 2877 4354 12640 7135 6162 3573 9909 5201 21420 6956 11240 3835 12190 4490 20090 7504 7020 19420 4021 7994 6014 6583 25820 6285 7888 4467 24490 5334 5352 23050 6793 7186 6889 6559 14420 8421 5180 6863 16460 11530 29140 16420 23090 8602 54380 32070 4689 20940 5992 6342 45480 17940 12210 3628 2424 47900 7000 25250 2331 3151 15260 1971 3040 6374 11010 18400 4139 5607 6123 21650 7715 33950 1877 5472 7199 5965 4959 7674 2857 9249 11040 3666 5039 16360 15760 6909 27820 7586 4511 20750 8729 9117 13060 8469 13220 12220 10390 31480 8493 5350 8862 4200 10170 2341 19000 6114 5601 4824 17820 5692 5121 6078 7440 1281 1664 20700 30550 5132 4706 22260 4388 6611 38060 13430 13990 13230 5652 4508 5364 6450 13860 1561 4235 6552 4242 5272 4400 5395 7190 4882 8032 10370 12800 14000 21620 6918 7409 15470 7911 4828 5403 18400 13980 17760 4513 3367 19920 5287 15210 12790 10050 16080 4734 5284 2748 9847 9202 4985 2755 10880 5904 17080 7785 3838 945 27720 14970 5446 4591 4664 21280 23260 23950 20930 16470 6492 7508 5566 7648 4285 7698 5811 1152 8074 3925 3747 5982 13330 25970 15150 4610 7825 22870 6248 7663 22770 5524 4887 5833 9676 6232 4883 11530

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.