COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-04 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-04

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-04

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-2612-2712-2112-2712-0812-2512-2712-2712-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2712-2812-2712-2712-2912-2712-2811-1512-2812-2110-2912-2612-2712-2712-1312-2812-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2811-0312-2112-2812-2512-0812-2712-2112-2112-2512-2212-2812-2712-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3012-2612-2712-2812-2712-2512-2212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2712-2712-282021-01-1310-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2712-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2712-2812-2112-2812-2212-2712-1412-222021-01-0412-2912-2612-2712-2512-272021-01-0412-2712-2812-2712-2712-2712-2712-2712-2112-2712-2712-2712-2112-2812-2712-2812-2712-2212-2712-1312-2712-2312-2812-2112-2712-2712-2812-2812-2512-2712-2912-2812-2712-2812-2812-2812-2512-2812-2712-2712-2712-2712-3012-2712-2812-2612-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-2112-2812-3012-3012-2211-0412-2712-2112-2112-2712-2212-2712-2212-2612-2812-2712-3011-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2712-2711-0412-2112-3011-0312-2511-0412-2812-2112-3012-2712-2612-2712-2812-2712-2712-282021-01-0312-292021-01-0212-2812-2711-032021-01-0312-2212-2812-2112-2812-2812-1312-3012-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-27 --12-2912-2912-282021-01-0312-2112-2712-2812-2412-2712-3012-2812-2712-2112-2212-2812-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-2012-3012-2712-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2712-2112-2612-2710-3112-2212-2812-2711-0112-2112-2712-2712-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-2712-2712-2812-2912-2712-2512-2712-2712-2112-1212-2312-2712-2712-2612-2812-2212-2712-2110-2812-2712-2712-1812-2712-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2712-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2812-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2812-3012-2612-27
Peak daily increment 64 90 100 172 113 172 182 77 489 587 191 62 326 136 101 109 238 432 1265 75 163 66 58 159 49 495 142 441 229 111 531 155 317 323 110 505 94 189 62 125 125 141 98 262 88 149 176 174 301 89 265 55 203 250 285 60 90 71 67 255 56 101 288 35 368 293 41 191 619 151 71 191 74 256 24 249 193 118 327 545 60 54 81 160 110 52 225 108 167 151 108 55 143 600 271 95 73 54 90 76 127 55 38 130 83 94 58 182 91 464 120 226 61 201 57 410 180 110 348 101 110 135 125 482 103 156 48 460 58 117 456 141 84 136 248 285 153 73 102 123 199 196 316 439 109 391 294 107 461 74 113 747 290 200 90 37 381 90 419 29 47 297 49 62 148 123 363 81 109 65 123 85 742 23 51 159 107 51 108 59 126 122 41 58 283 158 126 232 91 46 132 129 117 155 116 205 101 180 626 95 81 171 53 187 41 139 139 57 96 199 82 88 63 178 26 166 454 40 82 414 68 130 252 216 247 170 98 107 107 70 184 28 41 85 82 96 79 109 79 69 105 113 245 294 477 133 153 220 96 57 112 180 135 194 66 43 208 108 323 189 185 128 56 109 47 139 337 91 47 141 124 369 138 51 11 562 154 92 110 85 258 328 469 387 231 77 139 117 159 67 156 87 22 85 42 67 122 220 223 267 83 149 448 109 140 385 108 117 97 176 72 71 191
Days since peak 39 40 39 45 39 58 41 39 39 43 114 39 43 38 24 36 39 39 38 39 39 37 39 38 81 38 45 98 40 39 39 53 38 38 41 45 40 44 36 36 38 93 45 38 41 58 39 45 45 41 44 38 39 44 45 32 45 45 36 40 39 38 39 41 44 39 38 39 39 45 41 39 39 38 22 113 39 59 40 39 42 37 39 45 94 40 96 39 39 38 45 38 44 39 52 44 31 37 40 39 41 39 31 39 38 39 39 39 39 39 45 39 39 39 45 38 39 38 39 44 39 53 39 43 38 45 39 39 38 38 41 39 37 38 39 38 38 38 41 38 39 39 39 39 36 39 38 40 39 39 67 39 39 44 45 38 36 36 44 92 39 45 45 39 44 39 44 40 38 39 36 92 38 58 39 102 39 39 92 45 36 93 41 92 38 45 36 39 40 39 38 39 39 38 32 37 33 38 39 93 32 44 38 45 38 38 53 36 53 110 36 39 39 39 37 37 38 32 45 39 38 42 39 36 38 39 45 44 38 38 40 41 31 44 87 42 44 46 36 39 39 44 45 52 38 39 45 40 39 96 44 38 39 95 45 39 39 39 45 59 41 38 39 39 38 37 39 41 39 39 45 54 43 39 39 40 38 44 39 45 99 39 39 48 39 45 45 44 45 39 39 46 53 38 59 44 38 39 38 37 44 44 38 39 44 39 38 39 39 38 36 40 39
Last total 2698 4396 7721 7186 8107 9235 10539 3597 22050 28389 15629 3836 16820 7372 6775 7624 12165 21129 89713 6060 16263 8321 5185 22290 4035 23112 6470 41240 10073 5794 26212 6547 13443 27750 5490 23116 5631 8685 6122 9180 15146 12283 5102 13175 6250 9557 7733 7885 14165 10581 11939 3423 8363 18451 19313 5332 4387 3879 6835 10260 2672 4349 12858 2363 33611 20737 2552 7072 28992 7726 6344 9729 3660 17761 2477 19324 10260 7399 23755 28082 2624 3670 4439 7674 5590 3919 15543 8235 7913 6238 5029 2789 6836 28368 11903 4865 5974 4574 4630 4265 7672 2814 4202 12404 6974 5992 3403 9726 5010 21022 6813 10959 3753 11889 4377 19658 7394 6848 18948 3959 7836 5853 6444 25569 6152 7702 4335 23893 5153 5222 22439 6578 7059 6688 6382 14123 8267 4937 6603 16219 11241 28571 16029 22693 8406 53295 31252 4547 20585 5772 6200 44699 17404 12069 3542 2338 46984 6793 24914 2263 3022 14923 1930 2976 6275 10696 18043 4041 5484 5948 21358 7541 33337 1852 5301 7116 5767 4812 7528 2771 9137 10750 3563 4873 15926 15389 6670 27081 7362 4419 20449 8549 8937 12522 8366 12877 11891 9992 30959 8215 5161 8567 4092 9943 2290 18623 6004 5526 4704 17471 5512 5014 5932 7260 1318 1654 20289 29802 5085 4574 21884 4266 6501 37245 13110 13670 12895 5401 4425 5170 6217 13561 1532 4078 6294 4165 5071 4310 5256 6945 4656 7798 10168 12447 13803 21268 6747 7252 15142 7798 4724 5247 17993 13639 17501 4429 3270 19356 5125 14837 12662 9815 15677 4548 5137 2678 9531 8966 4737 2675 10718 5792 16828 7666 3690 929 27405 14733 5314 4548 4564 20848 22538 23524 20475 16059 6359 7298 5452 7503 4104 7422 5645 1113 7946 3857 3684 5742 13055 25607 14845 4501 7635 22525 6171 7493 22262 5371 4746 5559 9400 6042 4715 11346
Last daily increment 12 39 37 40 48 22 47 8 71 91 76 29 44 25 57 25 68 61 437 26 67 34 34 113 11 126 47 201 33 31 99 13 54 136 27 68 32 30 35 26 57 70 23 30 36 13 24 14 58 55 38 14 22 117 91 48 30 21 43 47 20 52 57 2 147 142 10 48 125 31 33 27 11 96 16 93 62 18 102 141 12 8 15 21 13 26 56 62 41 20 43 11 38 68 36 27 42 6 28 57 30 10 21 56 45 23 27 23 23 77 32 39 22 50 20 50 21 36 82 20 19 18 23 77 26 30 32 131 26 18 103 51 34 33 24 24 33 40 69 75 52 137 70 89 45 224 145 34 62 26 12 210 90 64 3 10 229 58 53 16 14 63 24 13 14 84 72 11 34 29 60 25 107 7 31 33 18 18 29 13 67 49 21 30 77 63 65 126 44 20 86 34 32 67 32 65 77 47 75 42 36 27 11 66 9 59 24 23 11 96 26 12 29 13 51 13 107 176 19 31 121 22 12 129 87 83 65 27 24 40 25 73 7 32 38 15 14 13 17 38 21 54 37 74 75 71 26 31 95 50 14 34 90 73 79 19 21 121 10 55 29 40 56 28 16 15 69 42 26 13 28 17 34 15 21 3 41 64 14 20 20 102 173 66 72 81 24 34 28 31 33 27 47 4 32 7 11 27 52 104 87 21 20 93 44 22 118 31 18 27 46 13 23 38
Last week 79 230 277 297 337 168 363 73 463 728 415 136 324 207 265 169 463 377 2994 192 426 255 220 669 115 924 233 1037 275 247 807 93 293 831 221 442 143 199 191 175 330 314 132 259 206 136 143 153 450 317 279 79 187 628 629 204 170 122 218 360 93 260 405 61 912 790 51 255 721 226 196 192 119 645 108 508 502 122 730 995 111 58 154 146 164 162 366 341 281 156 235 82 128 541 177 145 240 31 190 257 159 79 151 301 244 184 161 186 219 498 208 335 97 358 136 380 172 200 528 108 167 132 189 444 180 223 159 811 206 178 803 276 200 197 155 267 200 264 354 352 292 767 460 593 263 1400 966 141 461 215 74 1209 568 308 85 95 1258 326 434 73 106 434 103 72 110 445 491 68 186 213 371 179 766 21 182 158 195 172 183 107 271 385 118 175 586 424 339 909 244 136 446 249 199 558 172 428 420 333 576 284 235 258 102 347 81 441 134 112 90 510 224 122 195 218 184 53 586 1155 92 170 713 111 112 848 535 430 423 241 95 237 206 432 36 200 253 79 155 100 125 292 176 255 228 479 347 438 197 198 584 205 96 211 592 478 539 133 103 736 92 440 182 291 363 202 107 103 428 322 214 69 189 120 284 121 149 11 373 385 125 110 138 620 1051 465 525 458 173 212 145 173 180 268 229 30 188 70 102 195 304 666 567 151 204 604 219 205 729 230 149 236 376 197 160 263
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --09-17 --10-03 --11-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-28 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- -- --10-26 --10-13 -- --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- --10-2910-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --10-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 -- -- --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 63 29 77 72 95 163 99 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 29 293 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 28 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 296 360 152 86 540 75 529 611 61 71 391 51 68 608 256 82 101 43 41 196 64 44 67 237 232 86 183 435 113 25 66 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 89 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 136 38 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 61 94 20 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 6 70 58 19 40 13 12 62 22 19 14 49 91 19 26 119 34 10 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 8 27 35 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 18 15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-04 2698 4396 7721 7186 8107 9235 10539 3597 22050 28389 15629 3836 16820 7372 6775 7624 12165 21129 89713 6060 16263 8321 5185 22290 4035 23112 6470 41240 10073 5794 26212 6547 13443 27750 5490 23116 5631 8685 6122 9180 15146 12283 5102 13175 6250 9557 7733 7885 14165 10581 11939 3423 8363 18451 19313 5332 4387 3879 6835 10260 2672 4349 12858 2363 33611 20737 2552 7072 28992 7726 6344 9729 3660 17761 2477 19324 10260 7399 23755 28082 2624 3670 4439 7674 5590 3919 15543 8235 7913 6238 5029 2789 6836 28368 11903 4865 5974 4574 4630 4265 7672 2814 4202 12404 6974 5992 3403 9726 5010 21022 6813 10959 3753 11889 4377 19658 7394 6848 18948 3959 7836 5853 6444 25569 6152 7702 4335 23893 5153 5222 22439 6578 7059 6688 6382 14123 8267 4937 6603 16219 11241 28571 16029 22693 8406 53295 31252 4547 20585 5772 6200 44699 17404 12069 3542 2338 46984 6793 24914 2263 3022 14923 1930 2976 6275 10696 18043 4041 5484 5948 21358 7541 33337 1852 5301 7116 5767 4812 7528 2771 9137 10750 3563 4873 15926 15389 6670 27081 7362 4419 20449 8549 8937 12522 8366 12877 11891 9992 30959 8215 5161 8567 4092 9943 2290 18623 6004 5526 4704 17471 5512 5014 5932 7260 1318 1654 20289 29802 5085 4574 21884 4266 6501 37245 13110 13670 12895 5401 4425 5170 6217 13561 1532 4078 6294 4165 5071 4310 5256 6945 4656 7798 10168 12447 13803 21268 6747 7252 15142 7798 4724 5247 17993 13639 17501 4429 3270 19356 5125 14837 12662 9815 15677 4548 5137 2678 9531 8966 4737 2675 10718 5792 16828 7666 3690 929 27405 14733 5314 4548 4564 20848 22538 23524 20475 16059 6359 7298 5452 7503 4104 7422 5645 1113 7946 3857 3684 5742 13055 25607 14845 4501 7635 22525 6171 7493 22262 5371 4746 5559 9400 6042 4715 11346
2021-02-05 2705 4470 7834 7213 8233 9273 10760 3616 22150 28520 15710 3863 16850 7432 6846 7747 12260 21200 90520 6091 16350 8366 5228 22400 4055 23280 6552 41540 10090 5848 26440 6560 13550 27910 5599 23200 5659 8726 6162 9271 15220 12360 5128 13250 6334 9750 7772 7912 14240 10650 12000 3437 8389 18550 19440 5373 4418 3900 6863 10330 2692 4397 13310 2376 33790 20920 2558 7119 29140 7745 6415 9765 3682 17880 2497 19460 10370 7413 24050 28460 2646 3686 4469 7704 5614 3950 15610 8295 7965 6360 5064 2808 6866 28510 11930 4885 6040 4582 4656 4339 7740 2865 4231 12460 7018 6030 3435 9770 5054 21110 6849 11020 3789 12020 4398 19760 7435 6886 19040 3983 7869 5955 6475 25660 6234 7798 4364 24080 5188 5297 22700 6596 7106 6853 6427 14190 8341 4986 6731 16320 11260 28770 16110 22930 8463 53720 31450 4589 20700 5857 6207 45020 17570 12140 3557 2356 47290 6851 25020 2277 3047 15010 1946 3008 6325 10780 18130 4047 5534 5986 21420 7576 33480 1857 5351 7139 5864 4842 7558 2793 9164 10810 3585 4908 16150 15470 6709 27240 7483 4442 20530 8612 8951 12760 8442 12960 11970 10070 31110 8271 5201 8627 4111 10010 2305 18750 6023 5545 4731 17610 5531 5038 5967 7354 1344 1664 20390 30120 5101 4606 22060 4279 6523 37550 13210 13790 13040 5450 4445 5209 6317 13670 1541 4134 6342 4179 5137 4333 5289 6996 4760 7868 10210 12600 13840 21390 6785 7267 15340 7833 4746 5282 18090 13720 17560 4452 3290 19520 5149 14950 12730 9840 15860 4613 5156 2697 9670 9047 4845 2691 10760 5813 16910 7737 3719 932 27440 14870 5339 4569 4574 20990 22730 23620 20650 16280 6390 7345 5490 7522 4189 7485 5688 1120 7995 3871 3707 5786 13220 25720 14960 4532 7667 22730 6200 7565 22620 5416 4835 5609 9471 6106 4783 11410
2021-02-06 2711 4497 7865 7242 8271 9286 10810 3635 22250 28640 15780 3890 16860 7436 6878 7763 12350 21270 90900 6120 16430 8410 5271 22520 4074 23440 6578 41670 10120 5903 26530 6572 13550 27980 5615 23290 5686 8767 6201 9271 15250 12390 5154 13280 6357 9810 7812 7940 14320 10690 12050 3450 8416 18610 19510 5414 4418 3920 6869 10410 2712 4445 13420 2390 33960 21010 2563 7164 29270 7767 6442 9801 3703 17930 2517 19530 10470 7427 24140 28620 2668 3704 4498 7734 5637 3981 15680 8353 8016 6377 5082 2826 6894 28640 11930 4904 6076 4590 4664 4362 7740 2874 4260 12490 7061 6068 3468 9820 5099 21190 6885 11080 3823 12050 4418 19860 7474 6923 19130 3997 7901 5963 6505 25750 6249 7827 4393 24260 5224 5326 22810 6596 7122 6894 6473 14260 8367 5034 6759 16360 11290 28870 16190 22990 8521 53900 31540 4629 20810 5869 6214 45100 17610 12170 3571 2375 47470 6907 25110 2291 3072 15080 1960 3010 6326 10850 18210 4055 5540 6023 21480 7612 33610 1862 5398 7161 5889 4871 7587 2815 9182 10850 3607 4943 16240 15550 6748 27390 7514 4463 20600 8630 8967 12830 8450 13050 12040 10130 31260 8326 5241 8687 4130 10070 2319 18800 6042 5562 4743 17660 5550 5061 6002 7396 1369 1673 20460 30250 5117 4638 22100 4279 6544 37660 13240 13830 13100 5499 4464 5244 6339 13710 1551 4154 6391 4192 5201 4355 5295 7046 4777 7889 10260 12660 13890 21510 6822 7282 15400 7865 4767 5318 18150 13800 17600 4465 3309 19620 5171 15050 12750 9870 15910 4636 5175 2716 9720 9053 4872 2706 10800 5833 16990 7761 3747 935 27470 14910 5339 4589 4585 21070 22850 23710 20730 16330 6418 7392 5500 7542 4211 7501 5730 1127 8009 3885 3730 5831 13270 25790 15020 4563 7699 22770 6229 7590 22750 5461 4845 5659 9543 6134 4795 11430
2021-02-07 2716 4519 7898 7270 8304 9305 10840 3654 22340 28770 15860 3916 16860 7444 6918 7783 12440 21330 91210 6149 16510 8454 5314 22630 4086 23610 6589 41820 10140 5957 26630 6583 13550 28030 5649 23380 5713 8807 6240 9271 15290 12420 5179 13300 6391 9850 7851 7967 14400 10730 12100 3463 8442 18690 19580 5454 4418 3941 6874 10480 2731 4492 13520 2404 34130 21080 2569 7209 29410 7788 6452 9838 3723 17990 2537 19610 10580 7441 24200 28790 2689 3720 4527 7764 5661 4012 15750 8410 8068 6399 5116 2844 6922 28780 11940 4924 6111 4599 4666 4387 7740 2882 4289 12530 7104 6105 3499 9870 5144 21280 6921 11140 3856 12090 4438 19960 7512 6960 19220 4005 7934 5974 6535 25840 6264 7851 4422 24430 5259 5344 22920 6596 7138 6934 6519 14330 8387 5082 6796 16400 11310 28970 16270 23040 8579 54070 31630 4668 20920 5896 6221 45230 17670 12220 3585 2393 47640 6964 25210 2305 3097 15160 1975 3017 6333 10930 18290 4062 5550 6059 21540 7647 33750 1867 5445 7182 5906 4899 7616 2837 9202 10910 3628 4977 16310 15630 6788 27540 7544 4485 20680 8636 8982 12890 8467 13130 12110 10200 31410 8380 5281 8746 4148 10130 2333 18860 6061 5580 4744 17720 5570 5085 6036 7427 1395 1682 20550 30380 5132 4669 22170 4279 6565 37780 13280 13870 13150 5547 4483 5281 6352 13760 1561 4178 6438 4205 5265 4377 5298 7096 4792 7908 10300 12720 13930 21620 6859 7297 15480 7897 4788 5353 18220 13880 17660 4474 3328 19720 5194 15160 12770 9900 15950 4664 5193 2734 9780 9055 4898 2722 10840 5854 17060 7777 3775 938 27510 14960 5342 4609 4596 21140 22950 23800 20790 16400 6448 7439 5500 7562 4220 7520 5771 1134 8034 3899 3752 5874 13320 25870 15060 4593 7731 22830 6257 7601 22860 5505 4851 5709 9614 6163 4808 11450
2021-02-08 2721 4563 7954 7297 8385 9341 10920 3673 22440 28890 15930 3942 16890 7489 6970 7818 12530 21400 91790 6178 16600 8497 5356 22730 4114 23770 6643 42030 10160 6011 26820 6594 13580 28150 5695 23470 5740 8847 6279 9287 15350 12480 5204 13330 6431 9930 7890 7994 14470 10790 12160 3475 8467 18800 19690 5494 4423 3961 6894 10550 2750 4539 13680 2417 34300 21240 2574 7254 29540 7809 6497 9874 3743 18060 2557 19700 10680 7455 24390 29050 2711 3737 4556 7793 5684 4042 15820 8467 8120 6457 5157 2863 6950 28910 11990 4944 6148 4607 4689 4441 7740 2895 4318 12590 7147 6143 3531 9910 5188 21360 6956 11200 3888 12150 4458 20060 7550 6997 19310 4029 7967 6017 6565 25930 6312 7890 4450 24610 5294 5383 23100 6611 7182 6986 6566 14400 8435 5130 6868 16470 11330 29130 16350 23160 8637 54330 31780 4707 21030 5933 6228 45430 17820 12280 3599 2411 47900 7020 25310 2318 3122 15240 1989 3036 6361 11000 18370 4070 5581 6096 21600 7682 33890 1872 5490 7203 5958 4928 7644 2859 9260 10990 3650 5012 16450 15700 6828 27690 7599 4507 20750 8688 8996 13010 8508 13210 12180 10270 31550 8435 5320 8806 4166 10200 2346 18950 6079 5598 4753 17830 5589 5109 6070 7497 1420 1691 20670 30600 5147 4701 22280 4280 6585 37960 13380 13970 13220 5596 4501 5316 6405 13840 1570 4222 6486 4217 5329 4399 5341 7145 4844 7969 10340 12820 13970 21740 6895 7311 15580 7928 4809 5387 18300 13960 17750 4500 3347 19840 5217 15260 12800 9930 16030 4706 5211 2753 9880 9184 4942 2737 10880 5874 17140 7806 3804 940 27540 15030 5348 4628 4606 21270 23140 23890 20910 16480 6476 7486 5527 7582 4260 7562 5812 1141 8068 3912 3775 5918 13400 25970 15190 4623 7763 22960 6285 7640 23060 5549 4886 5760 9686 6198 4833 11510
2021-02-09 2727 4605 8019 7325 8451 9363 10970 3691 22530 29010 16000 3968 16910 7536 7034 7859 12620 21460 92290 6206 16680 8540 5399 22840 4131 23940 6682 42140 10180 6066 26960 6605 13620 28240 5736 23550 5766 8888 6318 9293 15400 12520 5230 13410 6478 10020 7929 8021 14550 10840 12210 3488 8493 18910 19810 5534 4429 3981 6907 10620 2769 4586 13810 2431 34480 21370 2580 7298 29670 7831 6531 9910 3764 18240 2576 19790 10790 7470 24540 29250 2732 3753 4585 7822 5708 4073 15890 8524 8172 6501 5205 2882 6977 29050 12000 4964 6188 4615 4706 4481 7753 2899 4346 12660 7189 6180 3564 9960 5233 21440 6991 11260 3921 12200 4477 20160 7588 7034 19400 4052 8000 6030 6595 26010 6328 7942 4478 24790 5329 5417 23220 6621 7210 7029 6613 14470 8475 5178 6945 16530 11350 29220 16430 23260 8695 54550 32030 4746 21140 5992 6235 45670 17920 12350 3614 2430 48130 7075 25400 2332 3147 15320 2004 3050 6391 11080 18450 4077 5613 6133 21660 7717 34020 1877 5536 7224 5996 4956 7673 2881 9296 11050 3671 5046 16580 15780 6867 27840 7624 4528 20830 8713 9011 13120 8533 13290 12260 10340 31690 8489 5359 8866 4185 10260 2360 19030 6098 5616 4761 17910 5609 5132 6104 7548 1445 1700 20760 30810 5162 4732 22440 4292 6606 38100 13490 14050 13310 5646 4520 5351 6450 13920 1580 4262 6534 4229 5394 4421 5362 7195 4879 8047 10390 12900 14010 21860 6932 7326 15690 7958 4830 5422 18390 14040 17870 4521 3366 19960 5240 15360 12840 9960 16090 4741 5230 2772 9950 9233 4990 2752 10920 5895 17220 7839 3832 943 27580 15090 5359 4648 4616 21360 23350 23980 21040 16570 6504 7533 5536 7601 4305 7625 5853 1148 8106 3926 3797 5963 13480 26090 15310 4654 7794 23040 6313 7676 23230 5593 4912 5811 9758 6240 4850 11550
2021-02-10 2732 4634 8056 7352 8495 9384 11020 3710 22620 29130 16080 3994 16920 7561 7080 7888 12710 21530 92780 6234 16760 8584 5441 22950 4151 24110 6713 42360 10210 6121 27090 6616 13630 28330 5771 23640 5793 8928 6357 9298 15460 12600 5255 13450 6509 10080 7968 8048 14630 10890 12270 3501 8519 19010 19910 5574 4442 4001 6914 10690 2788 4633 13920 2445 34650 21480 2585 7343 29810 7853 6566 9947 3784 18320 2596 19860 10890 7484 24660 29430 2754 3770 4615 7852 5731 4103 15950 8581 8224 6528 5238 2900 7004 29180 12000 4984 6224 4623 4731 4524 7753 2915 4375 12710 7232 6218 3596 10000 5279 21520 7026 11320 3954 12260 4497 20260 7626 7072 19490 4069 8033 6046 6625 26100 6356 7984 4507 24960 5364 5451 23330 6643 7239 7080 6661 14540 8514 5226 6997 16580 11380 29380 16510 23370 8753 54790 32190 4786 21240 6030 6242 45840 18010 12410 3628 2448 48330 7131 25500 2345 3172 15400 2018 3059 6413 11160 18540 4085 5633 6169 21720 7752 34160 1882 5582 7245 6039 4985 7702 2904 9337 11100 3693 5081 16690 15860 6907 27990 7658 4549 20900 8749 9026 13220 8559 13380 12330 10400 31840 8544 5399 8926 4203 10320 2374 19090 6116 5633 4766 18000 5628 5156 6138 7600 1470 1708 20840 31030 5177 4763 22550 4293 6626 38250 13580 14120 13380 5696 4538 5386 6481 13980 1590 4290 6583 4241 5458 4442 5375 7244 4908 8080 10430 12980 14050 21980 6968 7340 15790 7988 4851 5457 18470 14120 17950 4547 3385 20080 5262 15470 12870 10000 16150 4769 5249 2791 10030 9274 5027 2768 10960 5915 17300 7871 3861 946 27610 15150 5364 4668 4626 21470 23540 24070 21140 16650 6533 7580 5546 7621 4330 7646 5894 1155 8136 3939 3820 6007 13550 26180 15410 4684 7826 23130 6341 7710 23370 5637 4935 5862 9830 6269 4859 11580
2021-02-11 2737 4677 8097 7380 8548 9412 11090 3729 22720 29250 16150 4021 16970 7601 7126 7926 12800 21600 93260 6263 16850 8627 5484 23060 4166 24270 6758 42530 10230 6176 27200 6627 13700 28490 5808 23730 5820 8969 6396 9332 15510 12650 5280 13490 6545 10090 8008 8076 14700 10950 12320 3514 8545 19120 20000 5615 4483 4021 6959 10760 2808 4681 14010 2459 34820 21630 2590 7387 29940 7874 6600 9983 3804 18420 2616 19960 11000 7499 24780 29570 2776 3787 4644 7881 5755 4134 16020 8639 8276 6563 5280 2919 7031 29310 12040 5003 6267 4631 4766 4574 7777 2931 4404 12760 7276 6257 3628 10050 5324 21600 7062 11380 3987 12330 4517 20360 7665 7109 19580 4089 8066 6074 6655 26190 6387 8019 4535 25140 5400 5477 23460 6698 7282 7120 6708 14610 8547 5274 7062 16640 11400 29500 16590 23470 8812 55000 32330 4825 21350 6063 6250 46030 18100 12460 3642 2467 48550 7187 25600 2359 3198 15480 2033 3075 6439 11230 18620 4093 5671 6206 21780 7787 34290 1887 5628 7266 6066 5014 7730 2926 9410 11150 3714 5116 16790 15940 6946 28140 7709 4571 20980 8791 9041 13300 8599 13460 12400 10470 31990 8599 5438 8986 4222 10380 2388 19160 6135 5651 4780 18090 5648 5179 6172 7621 1496 1717 20940 31220 5192 4795 22680 4318 6647 38380 13680 14200 13450 5746 4557 5422 6515 14070 1599 4321 6631 4254 5522 4464 5392 7294 4939 8123 10470 13060 14090 22100 7005 7354 15900 8019 4872 5492 18560 14200 18020 4563 3404 20200 5285 15570 12910 10030 16210 4803 5267 2810 10110 9324 5063 2783 11000 5936 17380 7898 3889 949 27650 15220 5382 4688 4636 21570 23720 24160 21220 16730 6561 7628 5574 7641 4367 7682 5935 1162 8169 3953 3842 6052 13600 26290 15520 4714 7858 23220 6369 7745 23500 5681 4965 5914 9903 6293 4889 11620

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-04 2698 4396 7721 7186 8107 9235 10539 3597 22050 28389 15629 3836 16820 7372 6775 7624 12165 21129 89713 6060 16263 8321 5185 22290 4035 23112 6470 41240 10073 5794 26212 6547 13443 27750 5490 23116 5631 8685 6122 9180 15146 12283 5102 13175 6250 9557 7733 7885 14165 10581 11939 3423 8363 18451 19313 5332 4387 3879 6835 10260 2672 4349 12858 2363 33611 20737 2552 7072 28992 7726 6344 9729 3660 17761 2477 19324 10260 7399 23755 28082 2624 3670 4439 7674 5590 3919 15543 8235 7913 6238 5029 2789 6836 28368 11903 4865 5974 4574 4630 4265 7672 2814 4202 12404 6974 5992 3403 9726 5010 21022 6813 10959 3753 11889 4377 19658 7394 6848 18948 3959 7836 5853 6444 25569 6152 7702 4335 23893 5153 5222 22439 6578 7059 6688 6382 14123 8267 4937 6603 16219 11241 28571 16029 22693 8406 53295 31252 4547 20585 5772 6200 44699 17404 12069 3542 2338 46984 6793 24914 2263 3022 14923 1930 2976 6275 10696 18043 4041 5484 5948 21358 7541 33337 1852 5301 7116 5767 4812 7528 2771 9137 10750 3563 4873 15926 15389 6670 27081 7362 4419 20449 8549 8937 12522 8366 12877 11891 9992 30959 8215 5161 8567 4092 9943 2290 18623 6004 5526 4704 17471 5512 5014 5932 7260 1318 1654 20289 29802 5085 4574 21884 4266 6501 37245 13110 13670 12895 5401 4425 5170 6217 13561 1532 4078 6294 4165 5071 4310 5256 6945 4656 7798 10168 12447 13803 21268 6747 7252 15142 7798 4724 5247 17993 13639 17501 4429 3270 19356 5125 14837 12662 9815 15677 4548 5137 2678 9531 8966 4737 2675 10718 5792 16828 7666 3690 929 27405 14733 5314 4548 4564 20848 22538 23524 20475 16059 6359 7298 5452 7503 4104 7422 5645 1113 7946 3857 3684 5742 13055 25607 14845 4501 7635 22525 6171 7493 22262 5371 4746 5559 9400 6042 4715 11346
2021-02-05 2708 4436 7765 7215 8172 9257 10620 3611 22120 28490 15690 3857 16860 7400 6818 7665 12240 21190 90180 6090 16320 8359 5227 22390 4050 23250 6511 41410 10110 5837 26320 6559 13500 27860 5524 23190 5648 8715 6144 9202 15200 12340 5122 13220 6286 9580 7744 7907 14230 10630 11980 3439 8376 18530 19410 5363 4417 3897 6872 10320 2689 4393 12960 2371 33750 20870 2560 7109 29100 7762 6372 9756 3675 17850 2496 19410 10330 7418 23890 28270 2641 3680 4459 7694 5613 3944 15600 8289 7949 6268 5065 2802 6859 28440 11930 4888 6015 4578 4656 4300 7697 2829 4225 12450 7009 6021 3431 9755 5034 21090 6848 11000 3772 11950 4400 19710 7417 6879 19020 3974 7861 5873 6468 25630 6191 7737 4363 24030 5183 5254 22570 6617 7089 6732 6404 14170 8298 4980 6678 16280 11290 28700 16100 22790 8431 53510 31380 4571 20650 5811 6208 44880 17490 12110 3552 2352 47200 6848 24970 2276 3040 14990 1947 2989 6291 10760 18120 4052 5516 5977 21420 7566 33440 1856 5326 7140 5807 4838 7556 2784 9171 10810 3582 4903 16020 15440 6725 27220 7408 4442 20520 8594 8963 12610 8397 12920 11960 10040 31040 8255 5196 8603 4107 10000 2300 18690 6015 5543 4719 17550 5543 5034 5966 7293 1358 1661 20390 29990 5100 4593 21980 4284 6517 37380 13200 13740 12970 5433 4441 5206 6251 13630 1540 4109 6343 4169 5091 4326 5277 6987 4690 7831 10210 12520 13860 21350 6780 7282 15240 7832 4739 5280 18080 13710 17580 4447 3292 19480 5139 14900 12690 9860 15740 4571 5156 2691 9606 9012 4784 2687 10750 5809 16860 7690 3724 930 27460 14800 5334 4564 4582 20930 22720 23590 20550 16150 6387 7324 5472 7516 4136 7452 5685 1118 7969 3867 3701 5774 13100 25700 14930 4523 7662 22620 6206 7519 22380 5408 4767 5597 9452 6071 4744 11380
2021-02-06 2719 4471 7801 7246 8214 9275 10670 3625 22180 28560 15750 3877 16910 7416 6854 7682 12310 21240 90580 6115 16390 8397 5255 22490 4069 23360 6544 41560 10150 5882 26410 6568 13520 27970 5551 23250 5662 8743 6175 9223 15240 12380 5142 13250 6316 9602 7754 7931 14300 10670 12020 3452 8391 18600 19500 5397 4439 3913 6897 10370 2704 4434 13010 2382 33890 20980 2567 7139 29180 7801 6402 9781 3688 17930 2514 19470 10410 7436 24000 28380 2660 3691 4479 7713 5637 3965 15650 8335 7985 6274 5090 2818 6876 28510 11950 4909 6050 4583 4679 4322 7718 2841 4251 12480 7042 6054 3460 9787 5065 21160 6876 11040 3790 11990 4420 19760 7439 6910 19090 3986 7893 5890 6493 25690 6205 7767 4388 24150 5214 5280 22660 6652 7112 6761 6426 14220 8324 5026 6709 16320 11340 28800 16170 22860 8459 53700 31470 4595 20710 5840 6223 45000 17550 12130 3564 2364 47360 6896 25030 2289 3061 15050 1959 2998 6306 10810 18190 4067 5536 6011 21480 7593 33540 1860 5351 7159 5833 4865 7583 2796 9195 10860 3601 4931 16110 15500 6778 27370 7441 4463 20590 8623 8986 12670 8408 12980 12030 10100 31120 8299 5229 8618 4124 10050 2311 18740 6033 5559 4741 17600 5576 5053 5996 7320 1379 1664 20460 30090 5108 4614 22060 4303 6534 37510 13280 13790 13040 5470 4455 5228 6279 13690 1547 4134 6377 4181 5109 4340 5285 7028 4714 7850 10240 12590 13900 21420 6808 7309 15320 7854 4754 5311 18160 13780 17630 4463 3307 19580 5158 14960 12720 9900 15790 4596 5177 2706 9651 9039 4822 2700 10780 5823 16900 7705 3743 932 27510 14830 5351 4575 4599 21010 22850 23660 20600 16210 6412 7359 5490 7531 4165 7485 5714 1124 7980 3880 3717 5791 13140 25780 14990 4536 7692 22660 6230 7545 22460 5436 4785 5641 9507 6101 4771 11410
2021-02-07 2727 4505 7835 7278 8247 9295 10720 3639 22230 28640 15820 3897 16940 7433 6893 7697 12370 21290 90920 6140 16450 8435 5287 22590 4085 23480 6573 41720 10190 5928 26510 6577 13550 28060 5582 23310 5672 8771 6202 9243 15280 12420 5161 13280 6346 9621 7768 7953 14370 10710 12060 3463 8407 18670 19580 5429 4460 3929 6920 10420 2719 4475 13070 2393 34020 21050 2574 7169 29250 7843 6423 9806 3705 18000 2533 19550 10480 7454 24090 28470 2679 3702 4492 7731 5662 3983 15710 8382 8021 6277 5117 2833 6893 28590 11970 4924 6084 4588 4698 4343 7741 2848 4270 12520 7073 6086 3488 9818 5098 21220 6904 11070 3807 12040 4440 19800 7461 6938 19150 3994 7922 5905 6517 25750 6217 7795 4413 24270 5246 5295 22750 6684 7130 6784 6448 14270 8347 5071 6746 16370 11390 28900 16240 22910 8482 53890 31560 4615 20760 5873 6237 45130 17620 12150 3575 2377 47520 6945 25080 2302 3082 15110 1972 3007 6317 10870 18260 4081 5557 6037 21530 7622 33620 1864 5377 7181 5850 4892 7610 2812 9218 10910 3620 4957 16170 15560 6831 27510 7474 4483 20660 8636 9013 12720 8420 13030 12090 10170 31200 8343 5263 8644 4141 10100 2322 18800 6049 5575 4750 17660 5609 5072 6026 7342 1398 1667 20540 30180 5117 4632 22130 4321 6550 37640 13350 13830 13090 5506 4469 5260 6298 13750 1554 4163 6418 4190 5129 4356 5291 7075 4737 7864 10280 12660 13950 21470 6836 7337 15390 7879 4769 5341 18240 13850 17690 4472 3323 19680 5173 15010 12740 9950 15840 4625 5199 2722 9701 9066 4858 2711 10800 5841 16940 7717 3764 934 27550 14870 5365 4585 4611 21070 22960 23710 20650 16280 6436 7386 5503 7545 4187 7517 5738 1129 8001 3892 3730 5813 13170 25840 15030 4552 7722 22720 6249 7566 22520 5458 4798 5681 9563 6131 4800 11450
2021-02-08 2739 4542 7888 7341 8326 9321 10790 3653 22300 28760 15890 3918 16990 7465 6940 7732 12450 21340 91420 6165 16530 8479 5334 22700 4110 23630 6613 41910 10270 5978 26640 6587 13610 28210 5619 23390 5700 8799 6239 9278 15340 12470 5184 13320 6380 9656 7790 7982 14430 10760 12100 3477 8423 18780 19680 5465 4482 3947 6954 10470 2734 4519 13160 2405 34200 21190 2580 7215 29360 7885 6460 9832 3721 18090 2552 19630 10580 7472 24240 28680 2698 3716 4531 7753 5688 4012 15770 8437 8058 6309 5154 2848 6910 28670 12000 4948 6121 4593 4727 4398 7774 2864 4298 12570 7110 6119 3520 9849 5137 21290 6936 11130 3825 12100 4460 19870 7484 6980 19240 4010 7954 5937 6546 25820 6256 7831 4440 24400 5280 5328 22890 6726 7165 6821 6470 14320 8378 5117 6816 16430 11440 29060 16310 23030 8543 54130 31710 4638 20850 5910 6255 45300 17730 12200 3589 2398 47730 6993 25150 2315 3104 15180 1985 3018 6333 10950 18330 4096 5585 6075 21590 7655 33760 1868 5406 7203 5889 4920 7639 2833 9260 10980 3639 4989 16270 15630 6885 27660 7525 4504 20730 8688 9048 12840 8445 13110 12160 10230 31280 8393 5296 8704 4158 10160 2334 18900 6067 5591 4766 17760 5641 5092 6058 7380 1419 1674 20650 30370 5131 4660 22220 4340 6566 37820 13450 13890 13160 5549 4485 5298 6346 13810 1561 4200 6469 4203 5167 4372 5322 7126 4782 7915 10320 12740 14000 21550 6869 7366 15490 7902 4787 5373 18330 13920 17770 4496 3341 19800 5198 15090 12760 10000 15920 4663 5221 2739 9781 9108 4902 2726 10840 5863 17000 7736 3798 937 27620 14940 5382 4601 4633 21200 23130 23790 20750 16350 6462 7424 5529 7577 4222 7563 5784 1135 8033 3904 3749 5856 13220 25930 15120 4578 7751 22840 6281 7605 22650 5504 4825 5733 9626 6164 4830 11490
2021-02-09 2751 4579 7951 7401 8395 9344 10850 3667 22370 28870 15970 3939 17040 7490 6994 7775 12520 21400 91870 6190 16620 8526 5377 22800 4127 23760 6649 42060 10320 6029 26750 6600 13680 28330 5657 23450 5723 8826 6279 9315 15390 12520 5205 13370 6420 9712 7832 8007 14500 10810 12140 3491 8438 18870 19800 5508 4504 3964 6989 10520 2749 4564 13250 2416 34390 21320 2592 7256 29470 7926 6497 9857 3735 18240 2570 19700 10690 7490 24370 28820 2717 3728 4560 7775 5715 4043 15830 8492 8094 6344 5195 2864 6927 28740 12030 4971 6159 4598 4758 4443 7817 2873 4333 12620 7154 6152 3550 9880 5185 21350 6966 11190 3842 12160 4480 19950 7506 7011 19310 4027 7986 5961 6569 25870 6277 7881 4467 24520 5312 5355 23000 6766 7194 6860 6496 14370 8405 5163 6895 16480 11490 29160 16380 23110 8618 54370 31950 4665 20910 5959 6280 45520 17810 12250 3601 2415 47930 7041 25220 2328 3125 15240 1996 3028 6360 11030 18400 4110 5614 6110 21650 7686 33870 1872 5441 7222 5921 4947 7668 2851 9290 11040 3658 5022 16360 15710 6938 27810 7563 4524 20800 8717 9079 12960 8463 13190 12220 10290 31360 8451 5329 8778 4176 10210 2349 18980 6087 5607 4781 17850 5674 5113 6090 7412 1439 1679 20730 30560 5142 4694 22360 4360 6583 37970 13550 13960 13230 5600 4499 5336 6394 13890 1567 4237 6519 4222 5217 4388 5345 7177 4820 7986 10360 12810 14050 21640 6901 7393 15590 7925 4810 5406 18420 14000 17850 4515 3360 19920 5217 15140 12800 10040 16000 4698 5243 2755 9849 9140 4953 2739 10870 5880 17040 7758 3824 940 27670 14990 5407 4621 4659 21290 23290 23860 20830 16440 6489 7460 5550 7605 4266 7626 5823 1140 8069 3916 3766 5910 13280 26030 15210 4602 7781 22920 6313 7638 22780 5536 4855 5779 9684 6199 4858 11520
2021-02-10 2763 4615 8003 7475 8452 9362 10900 3681 22450 29000 16050 3959 17080 7515 7044 7820 12590 21450 92370 6216 16710 8572 5424 22900 4148 23910 6683 42280 10370 6079 26860 6610 13740 28490 5701 23520 5749 8855 6322 9344 15450 12580 5227 13420 6457 9750 7865 8031 14560 10860 12180 3505 8455 18980 19900 5552 4527 3982 7015 10580 2764 4608 13380 2432 34570 21440 2603 7295 29570 7972 6538 9882 3750 18350 2589 19780 10800 7508 24500 28950 2736 3740 4592 7798 5740 4082 15900 8551 8134 6376 5228 2879 6945 28830 12050 4992 6198 4603 4788 4500 7841 2895 4359 12670 7198 6185 3580 9912 5223 21420 6992 11230 3860 12230 4500 20010 7531 7045 19400 4040 8020 5994 6594 25930 6308 7924 4494 24650 5343 5382 23100 6818 7224 6909 6529 14420 8439 5209 6950 16540 11540 29340 16460 23200 8667 54660 32130 4687 20980 6004 6299 45670 17900 12310 3612 2431 48130 7091 25280 2341 3147 15310 2009 3037 6378 11110 18470 4125 5641 6144 21710 7724 33990 1877 5477 7244 5965 4974 7696 2868 9326 11090 3678 5054 16450 15780 6992 27960 7605 4545 20880 8758 9111 13090 8487 13270 12290 10350 31450 8508 5363 8827 4193 10260 2361 19050 6113 5624 4798 17960 5707 5134 6124 7442 1458 1682 20820 30770 5153 4727 22460 4379 6600 38150 13650 14030 13290 5654 4514 5373 6437 13950 1575 4273 6567 4237 5248 4403 5363 7222 4863 8026 10400 12880 14100 21710 6929 7424 15670 7952 4836 5439 18520 14080 17910 4540 3379 20040 5235 15220 12820 10090 16080 4733 5265 2770 9928 9173 4995 2753 10900 5900 17100 7780 3846 945 27720 15060 5430 4636 4679 21400 23470 23940 20930 16530 6513 7503 5568 7650 4303 7669 5861 1146 8101 3928 3782 5967 13340 26110 15290 4630 7811 23000 6343 7677 22890 5575 4889 5825 9737 6233 4885 11560
2021-02-11 2775 4652 8051 7558 8505 9380 10980 3695 22520 29090 16120 3979 17130 7547 7092 7861 12660 21490 92890 6241 16780 8615 5464 23010 4169 24060 6727 42460 10430 6130 26970 6619 13790 28650 5743 23590 5769 8883 6366 9396 15500 12630 5249 13450 6494 9774 7902 8053 14630 10910 12220 3519 8478 19070 20000 5590 4554 4001 7052 10630 2779 4659 13490 2444 34750 21570 2611 7340 29650 8017 6576 9908 3769 18470 2608 19870 10900 7526 24630 29090 2759 3757 4616 7820 5764 4116 15950 8605 8179 6407 5260 2895 6962 28920 12080 5011 6233 4608 4822 4544 7873 2913 4387 12710 7243 6219 3611 9944 5270 21480 7021 11280 3878 12300 4521 20070 7551 7077 19490 4053 8052 6031 6623 26000 6333 7965 4524 24790 5377 5410 23220 6863 7256 6957 6552 14470 8470 5256 7016 16590 11590 29460 16530 23300 8727 54890 32290 4710 21060 6041 6318 45850 17990 12340 3624 2446 48330 7140 25350 2355 3168 15370 2023 3048 6398 11190 18540 4140 5673 6181 21770 7761 34110 1881 5511 7266 5998 5002 7726 2897 9368 11150 3697 5086 16550 15860 7047 28100 7660 4565 20950 8805 9141 13200 8513 13350 12360 10420 31530 8555 5396 8883 4211 10310 2373 19130 6131 5640 4817 18050 5741 5153 6155 7467 1476 1687 20900 30930 5162 4757 22570 4401 6616 38330 13760 14090 13370 5693 4530 5407 6487 14010 1582 4308 6618 4254 5279 4420 5380 7266 4906 8067 10450 12960 14140 21780 6961 7453 15770 7974 4854 5478 18610 14150 17980 4557 3399 20150 5255 15280 12850 10140 16160 4777 5287 2785 9991 9206 5044 2767 10930 5922 17150 7801 3872 947 27770 15110 5454 4650 4699 21500 23630 24010 21000 16620 6539 7552 5596 7687 4338 7718 5899 1151 8128 3940 3796 6005 13400 26190 15360 4650 7841 23080 6371 7717 22990 5605 4923 5872 9810 6267 4922 11590

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.