COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-04

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-25	12-27	12-27	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-27	12-28	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-26	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-28	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-28	11-03	12-21	12-28	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-25	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-27	12-27	12-28	2021-01-13	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-27	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-22	12-27	12-14	12-22	2021-01-04	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-25	12-27	2021-01-04	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-28	12-28	12-25	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-28	12-28	12-25	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-26	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-30	12-30	12-22	11-04	12-27	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-27	12-30	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-27	12-27	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-25	11-04	12-28	12-21	12-30	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-28	2021-01-03	12-29	2021-01-02	12-28	12-27	11-03	2021-01-03	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-28	12-13	12-30	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-27	--	12-29	12-29	12-28	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-22	12-20	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-27	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-27	12-25	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-27	12-27	12-26	12-28	12-22	12-27	12-21	10-28	12-27	12-27	12-18	12-27	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-28	12-30	12-26	12-27
Peak daily increment	64	90	100	172	113	172	182	77	489	587	191	62	326	136	101	109	238	432	1265	75	163	66	58	159	49	495	142	441	229	111	531	155	317	323	110	505	94	189	62	125	125	141	98	262	88	149	176	174	301	89	265	55	203	250	285	60	90	71	67	255	56	101	288	35	368	293	41	191	619	151	71	191	74	256	24	249	193	118	327	545	60	54	81	160	110	52	225	108	167	151	108	55	143	600	271	95	73	54	90	76	127	55	38	130	83	94	58	182	91	464	120	226	61	201	57	410	180	110	348	101	110	135	125	482	103	156	48	460	58	117	456	141	84	136	248	285	153	73	102	123	199	196	316	439	109	391	294	107	461	74	113	747	290	200	90	37	381	90	419	29	47	297	49	62	148	123	363	81	109	65	123	85	742	23	51	159	107	51	108	59	126	122	41	58	283	158	126	232	91	46	132	129	117	155	116	205	101	180	626	95	81	171	53	187	41	139	139	57	96	199	82	88	63	178		26	166	454	40	82	414	68	130	252	216	247	170	98	107	107	70	184	28	41	85	82	96	79	109	79	69	105	113	245	294	477	133	153	220	96	57	112	180	135	194	66	43	208	108	323	189	185	128	56	109	47	139	337	91	47	141	124	369	138	51	11	562	154	92	110	85	258	328	469	387	231	77	139	117	159	67	156	87	22	85	42	67	122	220	223	267	83	149	448	109	140	385	108	117	97	176	72	71	191
Days since peak	39	40	39	45	39	58	41	39	39	43	114	39	43	38	24	36	39	39	38	39	39	37	39	38	81	38	45	98	40	39	39	53	38	38	41	45	40	44	36	36	38	93	45	38	41	58	39	45	45	41	44	38	39	44	45	32	45	45	36	40	39	38	39	41	44	39	38	39	39	45	41	39	39	38	22	113	39	59	40	39	42	37	39	45	94	40	96	39	39	38	45	38	44	39	52	44	31	37	40	39	41	39	31	39	38	39	39	39	39	39	45	39	39	39	45	38	39	38	39	44	39	53	39	43	38	45	39	39	38	38	41	39	37	38	39	38	38	38	41	38	39	39	39	39	36	39	38	40	39	39	67	39	39	44	45	38	36	36	44	92	39	45	45	39	44	39	44	40	38	39	36	92	38	58	39	102	39	39	92	45	36	93	41	92	38	45	36	39	40	39	38	39	39	38	32	37	33	38	39	93	32	44	38	45	38	38	53	36	53	110	36	39	39	39		37	37	38	32	45	39	38	42	39	36	38	39	45	44	38	38	40	41	31	44	87	42	44	46	36	39	39	44	45	52	38	39	45	40	39	96	44	38	39	95	45	39	39	39	45	59	41	38	39	39	38	37	39	41	39	39	45	54	43	39	39	40	38	44	39	45	99	39	39	48	39	45	45	44	45	39	39	46	53	38	59	44	38	39	38	37	44	44	38	39	44	39	38	39	39	38	36	40	39
Last total	2698	4396	7721	7186	8107	9235	10539	3597	22050	28389	15629	3836	16820	7372	6775	7624	12165	21129	89713	6060	16263	8321	5185	22290	4035	23112	6470	41240	10073	5794	26212	6547	13443	27750	5490	23116	5631	8685	6122	9180	15146	12283	5102	13175	6250	9557	7733	7885	14165	10581	11939	3423	8363	18451	19313	5332	4387	3879	6835	10260	2672	4349	12858	2363	33611	20737	2552	7072	28992	7726	6344	9729	3660	17761	2477	19324	10260	7399	23755	28082	2624	3670	4439	7674	5590	3919	15543	8235	7913	6238	5029	2789	6836	28368	11903	4865	5974	4574	4630	4265	7672	2814	4202	12404	6974	5992	3403	9726	5010	21022	6813	10959	3753	11889	4377	19658	7394	6848	18948	3959	7836	5853	6444	25569	6152	7702	4335	23893	5153	5222	22439	6578	7059	6688	6382	14123	8267	4937	6603	16219	11241	28571	16029	22693	8406	53295	31252	4547	20585	5772	6200	44699	17404	12069	3542	2338	46984	6793	24914	2263	3022	14923	1930	2976	6275	10696	18043	4041	5484	5948	21358	7541	33337	1852	5301	7116	5767	4812	7528	2771	9137	10750	3563	4873	15926	15389	6670	27081	7362	4419	20449	8549	8937	12522	8366	12877	11891	9992	30959	8215	5161	8567	4092	9943	2290	18623	6004	5526	4704	17471	5512	5014	5932	7260	1318	1654	20289	29802	5085	4574	21884	4266	6501	37245	13110	13670	12895	5401	4425	5170	6217	13561	1532	4078	6294	4165	5071	4310	5256	6945	4656	7798	10168	12447	13803	21268	6747	7252	15142	7798	4724	5247	17993	13639	17501	4429	3270	19356	5125	14837	12662	9815	15677	4548	5137	2678	9531	8966	4737	2675	10718	5792	16828	7666	3690	929	27405	14733	5314	4548	4564	20848	22538	23524	20475	16059	6359	7298	5452	7503	4104	7422	5645	1113	7946	3857	3684	5742	13055	25607	14845	4501	7635	22525	6171	7493	22262	5371	4746	5559	9400	6042	4715	11346
Last daily increment	12	39	37	40	48	22	47	8	71	91	76	29	44	25	57	25	68	61	437	26	67	34	34	113	11	126	47	201	33	31	99	13	54	136	27	68	32	30	35	26	57	70	23	30	36	13	24	14	58	55	38	14	22	117	91	48	30	21	43	47	20	52	57	2	147	142	10	48	125	31	33	27	11	96	16	93	62	18	102	141	12	8	15	21	13	26	56	62	41	20	43	11	38	68	36	27	42	6	28	57	30	10	21	56	45	23	27	23	23	77	32	39	22	50	20	50	21	36	82	20	19	18	23	77	26	30	32	131	26	18	103	51	34	33	24	24	33	40	69	75	52	137	70	89	45	224	145	34	62	26	12	210	90	64	3	10	229	58	53	16	14	63	24	13	14	84	72	11	34	29	60	25	107	7	31	33	18	18	29	13	67	49	21	30	77	63	65	126	44	20	86	34	32	67	32	65	77	47	75	42	36	27	11	66	9	59	24	23	11	96	26	12	29	13	51	13	107	176	19	31	121	22	12	129	87	83	65	27	24	40	25	73	7	32	38	15	14	13	17	38	21	54	37	74	75	71	26	31	95	50	14	34	90	73	79	19	21	121	10	55	29	40	56	28	16	15	69	42	26	13	28	17	34	15	21	3	41	64	14	20	20	102	173	66	72	81	24	34	28	31	33	27	47	4	32	7	11	27	52	104	87	21	20	93	44	22	118	31	18	27	46	13	23	38
Last week	79	230	277	297	337	168	363	73	463	728	415	136	324	207	265	169	463	377	2994	192	426	255	220	669	115	924	233	1037	275	247	807	93	293	831	221	442	143	199	191	175	330	314	132	259	206	136	143	153	450	317	279	79	187	628	629	204	170	122	218	360	93	260	405	61	912	790	51	255	721	226	196	192	119	645	108	508	502	122	730	995	111	58	154	146	164	162	366	341	281	156	235	82	128	541	177	145	240	31	190	257	159	79	151	301	244	184	161	186	219	498	208	335	97	358	136	380	172	200	528	108	167	132	189	444	180	223	159	811	206	178	803	276	200	197	155	267	200	264	354	352	292	767	460	593	263	1400	966	141	461	215	74	1209	568	308	85	95	1258	326	434	73	106	434	103	72	110	445	491	68	186	213	371	179	766	21	182	158	195	172	183	107	271	385	118	175	586	424	339	909	244	136	446	249	199	558	172	428	420	333	576	284	235	258	102	347	81	441	134	112	90	510	224	122	195	218	184	53	586	1155	92	170	713	111	112	848	535	430	423	241	95	237	206	432	36	200	253	79	155	100	125	292	176	255	228	479	347	438	197	198	584	205	96	211	592	478	539	133	103	736	92	440	182	291	363	202	107	103	428	322	214	69	189	120	284	121	149	11	373	385	125	110	138	620	1051	465	525	458	173	212	145	173	180	268	229	30	188	70	102	195	304	666	567	151	204	604	219	205	729	230	149	236	376	197	160	263
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	09-17	--	10-03	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	06-14	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-26	--	10-13	--	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		63							29			77	72			95		163	99	55	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				29		293		20							165	29		55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				28			71	31	56				65									43		52				59							296		360	152		86	540	75					529					611	61								71					391				51										68			608			256				82		101				43		41			196		64			44		67				237	232	86		183			435	113					25	66								24	70		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			89								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				136				38				65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	62		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106		9							53	7		18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	23				18									11		14				21							61		94	20		23	154	15					58					136	19								34					54				14										6			70			58				19		40				13		12			62		22			19		14				49	91	19		26			119	34					10	22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								8			27								35	21		11						19		5			77				21				9				18		15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-04	2698	4396	7721	7186	8107	9235	10539	3597	22050	28389	15629	3836	16820	7372	6775	7624	12165	21129	89713	6060	16263	8321	5185	22290	4035	23112	6470	41240	10073	5794	26212	6547	13443	27750	5490	23116	5631	8685	6122	9180	15146	12283	5102	13175	6250	9557	7733	7885	14165	10581	11939	3423	8363	18451	19313	5332	4387	3879	6835	10260	2672	4349	12858	2363	33611	20737	2552	7072	28992	7726	6344	9729	3660	17761	2477	19324	10260	7399	23755	28082	2624	3670	4439	7674	5590	3919	15543	8235	7913	6238	5029	2789	6836	28368	11903	4865	5974	4574	4630	4265	7672	2814	4202	12404	6974	5992	3403	9726	5010	21022	6813	10959	3753	11889	4377	19658	7394	6848	18948	3959	7836	5853	6444	25569	6152	7702	4335	23893	5153	5222	22439	6578	7059	6688	6382	14123	8267	4937	6603	16219	11241	28571	16029	22693	8406	53295	31252	4547	20585	5772	6200	44699	17404	12069	3542	2338	46984	6793	24914	2263	3022	14923	1930	2976	6275	10696	18043	4041	5484	5948	21358	7541	33337	1852	5301	7116	5767	4812	7528	2771	9137	10750	3563	4873	15926	15389	6670	27081	7362	4419	20449	8549	8937	12522	8366	12877	11891	9992	30959	8215	5161	8567	4092	9943	2290	18623	6004	5526	4704	17471	5512	5014	5932	7260	1318	1654	20289	29802	5085	4574	21884	4266	6501	37245	13110	13670	12895	5401	4425	5170	6217	13561	1532	4078	6294	4165	5071	4310	5256	6945	4656	7798	10168	12447	13803	21268	6747	7252	15142	7798	4724	5247	17993	13639	17501	4429	3270	19356	5125	14837	12662	9815	15677	4548	5137	2678	9531	8966	4737	2675	10718	5792	16828	7666	3690	929	27405	14733	5314	4548	4564	20848	22538	23524	20475	16059	6359	7298	5452	7503	4104	7422	5645	1113	7946	3857	3684	5742	13055	25607	14845	4501	7635	22525	6171	7493	22262	5371	4746	5559	9400	6042	4715	11346
2021-02-05	2705	4470	7834	7213	8233	9273	10760	3616	22150	28520	15710	3863	16850	7432	6846	7747	12260	21200	90520	6091	16350	8366	5228	22400	4055	23280	6552	41540	10090	5848	26440	6560	13550	27910	5599	23200	5659	8726	6162	9271	15220	12360	5128	13250	6334	9750	7772	7912	14240	10650	12000	3437	8389	18550	19440	5373	4418	3900	6863	10330	2692	4397	13310	2376	33790	20920	2558	7119	29140	7745	6415	9765	3682	17880	2497	19460	10370	7413	24050	28460	2646	3686	4469	7704	5614	3950	15610	8295	7965	6360	5064	2808	6866	28510	11930	4885	6040	4582	4656	4339	7740	2865	4231	12460	7018	6030	3435	9770	5054	21110	6849	11020	3789	12020	4398	19760	7435	6886	19040	3983	7869	5955	6475	25660	6234	7798	4364	24080	5188	5297	22700	6596	7106	6853	6427	14190	8341	4986	6731	16320	11260	28770	16110	22930	8463	53720	31450	4589	20700	5857	6207	45020	17570	12140	3557	2356	47290	6851	25020	2277	3047	15010	1946	3008	6325	10780	18130	4047	5534	5986	21420	7576	33480	1857	5351	7139	5864	4842	7558	2793	9164	10810	3585	4908	16150	15470	6709	27240	7483	4442	20530	8612	8951	12760	8442	12960	11970	10070	31110	8271	5201	8627	4111	10010	2305	18750	6023	5545	4731	17610	5531	5038	5967	7354	1344	1664	20390	30120	5101	4606	22060	4279	6523	37550	13210	13790	13040	5450	4445	5209	6317	13670	1541	4134	6342	4179	5137	4333	5289	6996	4760	7868	10210	12600	13840	21390	6785	7267	15340	7833	4746	5282	18090	13720	17560	4452	3290	19520	5149	14950	12730	9840	15860	4613	5156	2697	9670	9047	4845	2691	10760	5813	16910	7737	3719	932	27440	14870	5339	4569	4574	20990	22730	23620	20650	16280	6390	7345	5490	7522	4189	7485	5688	1120	7995	3871	3707	5786	13220	25720	14960	4532	7667	22730	6200	7565	22620	5416	4835	5609	9471	6106	4783	11410
2021-02-06	2711	4497	7865	7242	8271	9286	10810	3635	22250	28640	15780	3890	16860	7436	6878	7763	12350	21270	90900	6120	16430	8410	5271	22520	4074	23440	6578	41670	10120	5903	26530	6572	13550	27980	5615	23290	5686	8767	6201	9271	15250	12390	5154	13280	6357	9810	7812	7940	14320	10690	12050	3450	8416	18610	19510	5414	4418	3920	6869	10410	2712	4445	13420	2390	33960	21010	2563	7164	29270	7767	6442	9801	3703	17930	2517	19530	10470	7427	24140	28620	2668	3704	4498	7734	5637	3981	15680	8353	8016	6377	5082	2826	6894	28640	11930	4904	6076	4590	4664	4362	7740	2874	4260	12490	7061	6068	3468	9820	5099	21190	6885	11080	3823	12050	4418	19860	7474	6923	19130	3997	7901	5963	6505	25750	6249	7827	4393	24260	5224	5326	22810	6596	7122	6894	6473	14260	8367	5034	6759	16360	11290	28870	16190	22990	8521	53900	31540	4629	20810	5869	6214	45100	17610	12170	3571	2375	47470	6907	25110	2291	3072	15080	1960	3010	6326	10850	18210	4055	5540	6023	21480	7612	33610	1862	5398	7161	5889	4871	7587	2815	9182	10850	3607	4943	16240	15550	6748	27390	7514	4463	20600	8630	8967	12830	8450	13050	12040	10130	31260	8326	5241	8687	4130	10070	2319	18800	6042	5562	4743	17660	5550	5061	6002	7396	1369	1673	20460	30250	5117	4638	22100	4279	6544	37660	13240	13830	13100	5499	4464	5244	6339	13710	1551	4154	6391	4192	5201	4355	5295	7046	4777	7889	10260	12660	13890	21510	6822	7282	15400	7865	4767	5318	18150	13800	17600	4465	3309	19620	5171	15050	12750	9870	15910	4636	5175	2716	9720	9053	4872	2706	10800	5833	16990	7761	3747	935	27470	14910	5339	4589	4585	21070	22850	23710	20730	16330	6418	7392	5500	7542	4211	7501	5730	1127	8009	3885	3730	5831	13270	25790	15020	4563	7699	22770	6229	7590	22750	5461	4845	5659	9543	6134	4795	11430
2021-02-07	2716	4519	7898	7270	8304	9305	10840	3654	22340	28770	15860	3916	16860	7444	6918	7783	12440	21330	91210	6149	16510	8454	5314	22630	4086	23610	6589	41820	10140	5957	26630	6583	13550	28030	5649	23380	5713	8807	6240	9271	15290	12420	5179	13300	6391	9850	7851	7967	14400	10730	12100	3463	8442	18690	19580	5454	4418	3941	6874	10480	2731	4492	13520	2404	34130	21080	2569	7209	29410	7788	6452	9838	3723	17990	2537	19610	10580	7441	24200	28790	2689	3720	4527	7764	5661	4012	15750	8410	8068	6399	5116	2844	6922	28780	11940	4924	6111	4599	4666	4387	7740	2882	4289	12530	7104	6105	3499	9870	5144	21280	6921	11140	3856	12090	4438	19960	7512	6960	19220	4005	7934	5974	6535	25840	6264	7851	4422	24430	5259	5344	22920	6596	7138	6934	6519	14330	8387	5082	6796	16400	11310	28970	16270	23040	8579	54070	31630	4668	20920	5896	6221	45230	17670	12220	3585	2393	47640	6964	25210	2305	3097	15160	1975	3017	6333	10930	18290	4062	5550	6059	21540	7647	33750	1867	5445	7182	5906	4899	7616	2837	9202	10910	3628	4977	16310	15630	6788	27540	7544	4485	20680	8636	8982	12890	8467	13130	12110	10200	31410	8380	5281	8746	4148	10130	2333	18860	6061	5580	4744	17720	5570	5085	6036	7427	1395	1682	20550	30380	5132	4669	22170	4279	6565	37780	13280	13870	13150	5547	4483	5281	6352	13760	1561	4178	6438	4205	5265	4377	5298	7096	4792	7908	10300	12720	13930	21620	6859	7297	15480	7897	4788	5353	18220	13880	17660	4474	3328	19720	5194	15160	12770	9900	15950	4664	5193	2734	9780	9055	4898	2722	10840	5854	17060	7777	3775	938	27510	14960	5342	4609	4596	21140	22950	23800	20790	16400	6448	7439	5500	7562	4220	7520	5771	1134	8034	3899	3752	5874	13320	25870	15060	4593	7731	22830	6257	7601	22860	5505	4851	5709	9614	6163	4808	11450
2021-02-08	2721	4563	7954	7297	8385	9341	10920	3673	22440	28890	15930	3942	16890	7489	6970	7818	12530	21400	91790	6178	16600	8497	5356	22730	4114	23770	6643	42030	10160	6011	26820	6594	13580	28150	5695	23470	5740	8847	6279	9287	15350	12480	5204	13330	6431	9930	7890	7994	14470	10790	12160	3475	8467	18800	19690	5494	4423	3961	6894	10550	2750	4539	13680	2417	34300	21240	2574	7254	29540	7809	6497	9874	3743	18060	2557	19700	10680	7455	24390	29050	2711	3737	4556	7793	5684	4042	15820	8467	8120	6457	5157	2863	6950	28910	11990	4944	6148	4607	4689	4441	7740	2895	4318	12590	7147	6143	3531	9910	5188	21360	6956	11200	3888	12150	4458	20060	7550	6997	19310	4029	7967	6017	6565	25930	6312	7890	4450	24610	5294	5383	23100	6611	7182	6986	6566	14400	8435	5130	6868	16470	11330	29130	16350	23160	8637	54330	31780	4707	21030	5933	6228	45430	17820	12280	3599	2411	47900	7020	25310	2318	3122	15240	1989	3036	6361	11000	18370	4070	5581	6096	21600	7682	33890	1872	5490	7203	5958	4928	7644	2859	9260	10990	3650	5012	16450	15700	6828	27690	7599	4507	20750	8688	8996	13010	8508	13210	12180	10270	31550	8435	5320	8806	4166	10200	2346	18950	6079	5598	4753	17830	5589	5109	6070	7497	1420	1691	20670	30600	5147	4701	22280	4280	6585	37960	13380	13970	13220	5596	4501	5316	6405	13840	1570	4222	6486	4217	5329	4399	5341	7145	4844	7969	10340	12820	13970	21740	6895	7311	15580	7928	4809	5387	18300	13960	17750	4500	3347	19840	5217	15260	12800	9930	16030	4706	5211	2753	9880	9184	4942	2737	10880	5874	17140	7806	3804	940	27540	15030	5348	4628	4606	21270	23140	23890	20910	16480	6476	7486	5527	7582	4260	7562	5812	1141	8068	3912	3775	5918	13400	25970	15190	4623	7763	22960	6285	7640	23060	5549	4886	5760	9686	6198	4833	11510
2021-02-09	2727	4605	8019	7325	8451	9363	10970	3691	22530	29010	16000	3968	16910	7536	7034	7859	12620	21460	92290	6206	16680	8540	5399	22840	4131	23940	6682	42140	10180	6066	26960	6605	13620	28240	5736	23550	5766	8888	6318	9293	15400	12520	5230	13410	6478	10020	7929	8021	14550	10840	12210	3488	8493	18910	19810	5534	4429	3981	6907	10620	2769	4586	13810	2431	34480	21370	2580	7298	29670	7831	6531	9910	3764	18240	2576	19790	10790	7470	24540	29250	2732	3753	4585	7822	5708	4073	15890	8524	8172	6501	5205	2882	6977	29050	12000	4964	6188	4615	4706	4481	7753	2899	4346	12660	7189	6180	3564	9960	5233	21440	6991	11260	3921	12200	4477	20160	7588	7034	19400	4052	8000	6030	6595	26010	6328	7942	4478	24790	5329	5417	23220	6621	7210	7029	6613	14470	8475	5178	6945	16530	11350	29220	16430	23260	8695	54550	32030	4746	21140	5992	6235	45670	17920	12350	3614	2430	48130	7075	25400	2332	3147	15320	2004	3050	6391	11080	18450	4077	5613	6133	21660	7717	34020	1877	5536	7224	5996	4956	7673	2881	9296	11050	3671	5046	16580	15780	6867	27840	7624	4528	20830	8713	9011	13120	8533	13290	12260	10340	31690	8489	5359	8866	4185	10260	2360	19030	6098	5616	4761	17910	5609	5132	6104	7548	1445	1700	20760	30810	5162	4732	22440	4292	6606	38100	13490	14050	13310	5646	4520	5351	6450	13920	1580	4262	6534	4229	5394	4421	5362	7195	4879	8047	10390	12900	14010	21860	6932	7326	15690	7958	4830	5422	18390	14040	17870	4521	3366	19960	5240	15360	12840	9960	16090	4741	5230	2772	9950	9233	4990	2752	10920	5895	17220	7839	3832	943	27580	15090	5359	4648	4616	21360	23350	23980	21040	16570	6504	7533	5536	7601	4305	7625	5853	1148	8106	3926	3797	5963	13480	26090	15310	4654	7794	23040	6313	7676	23230	5593	4912	5811	9758	6240	4850	11550
2021-02-10	2732	4634	8056	7352	8495	9384	11020	3710	22620	29130	16080	3994	16920	7561	7080	7888	12710	21530	92780	6234	16760	8584	5441	22950	4151	24110	6713	42360	10210	6121	27090	6616	13630	28330	5771	23640	5793	8928	6357	9298	15460	12600	5255	13450	6509	10080	7968	8048	14630	10890	12270	3501	8519	19010	19910	5574	4442	4001	6914	10690	2788	4633	13920	2445	34650	21480	2585	7343	29810	7853	6566	9947	3784	18320	2596	19860	10890	7484	24660	29430	2754	3770	4615	7852	5731	4103	15950	8581	8224	6528	5238	2900	7004	29180	12000	4984	6224	4623	4731	4524	7753	2915	4375	12710	7232	6218	3596	10000	5279	21520	7026	11320	3954	12260	4497	20260	7626	7072	19490	4069	8033	6046	6625	26100	6356	7984	4507	24960	5364	5451	23330	6643	7239	7080	6661	14540	8514	5226	6997	16580	11380	29380	16510	23370	8753	54790	32190	4786	21240	6030	6242	45840	18010	12410	3628	2448	48330	7131	25500	2345	3172	15400	2018	3059	6413	11160	18540	4085	5633	6169	21720	7752	34160	1882	5582	7245	6039	4985	7702	2904	9337	11100	3693	5081	16690	15860	6907	27990	7658	4549	20900	8749	9026	13220	8559	13380	12330	10400	31840	8544	5399	8926	4203	10320	2374	19090	6116	5633	4766	18000	5628	5156	6138	7600	1470	1708	20840	31030	5177	4763	22550	4293	6626	38250	13580	14120	13380	5696	4538	5386	6481	13980	1590	4290	6583	4241	5458	4442	5375	7244	4908	8080	10430	12980	14050	21980	6968	7340	15790	7988	4851	5457	18470	14120	17950	4547	3385	20080	5262	15470	12870	10000	16150	4769	5249	2791	10030	9274	5027	2768	10960	5915	17300	7871	3861	946	27610	15150	5364	4668	4626	21470	23540	24070	21140	16650	6533	7580	5546	7621	4330	7646	5894	1155	8136	3939	3820	6007	13550	26180	15410	4684	7826	23130	6341	7710	23370	5637	4935	5862	9830	6269	4859	11580
2021-02-11	2737	4677	8097	7380	8548	9412	11090	3729	22720	29250	16150	4021	16970	7601	7126	7926	12800	21600	93260	6263	16850	8627	5484	23060	4166	24270	6758	42530	10230	6176	27200	6627	13700	28490	5808	23730	5820	8969	6396	9332	15510	12650	5280	13490	6545	10090	8008	8076	14700	10950	12320	3514	8545	19120	20000	5615	4483	4021	6959	10760	2808	4681	14010	2459	34820	21630	2590	7387	29940	7874	6600	9983	3804	18420	2616	19960	11000	7499	24780	29570	2776	3787	4644	7881	5755	4134	16020	8639	8276	6563	5280	2919	7031	29310	12040	5003	6267	4631	4766	4574	7777	2931	4404	12760	7276	6257	3628	10050	5324	21600	7062	11380	3987	12330	4517	20360	7665	7109	19580	4089	8066	6074	6655	26190	6387	8019	4535	25140	5400	5477	23460	6698	7282	7120	6708	14610	8547	5274	7062	16640	11400	29500	16590	23470	8812	55000	32330	4825	21350	6063	6250	46030	18100	12460	3642	2467	48550	7187	25600	2359	3198	15480	2033	3075	6439	11230	18620	4093	5671	6206	21780	7787	34290	1887	5628	7266	6066	5014	7730	2926	9410	11150	3714	5116	16790	15940	6946	28140	7709	4571	20980	8791	9041	13300	8599	13460	12400	10470	31990	8599	5438	8986	4222	10380	2388	19160	6135	5651	4780	18090	5648	5179	6172	7621	1496	1717	20940	31220	5192	4795	22680	4318	6647	38380	13680	14200	13450	5746	4557	5422	6515	14070	1599	4321	6631	4254	5522	4464	5392	7294	4939	8123	10470	13060	14090	22100	7005	7354	15900	8019	4872	5492	18560	14200	18020	4563	3404	20200	5285	15570	12910	10030	16210	4803	5267	2810	10110	9324	5063	2783	11000	5936	17380	7898	3889	949	27650	15220	5382	4688	4636	21570	23720	24160	21220	16730	6561	7628	5574	7641	4367	7682	5935	1162	8169	3953	3842	6052	13600	26290	15520	4714	7858	23220	6369	7745	23500	5681	4965	5914	9903	6293	4889	11620

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-11

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-04	2698	4396	7721	7186	8107	9235	10539	3597	22050	28389	15629	3836	16820	7372	6775	7624	12165	21129	89713	6060	16263	8321	5185	22290	4035	23112	6470	41240	10073	5794	26212	6547	13443	27750	5490	23116	5631	8685	6122	9180	15146	12283	5102	13175	6250	9557	7733	7885	14165	10581	11939	3423	8363	18451	19313	5332	4387	3879	6835	10260	2672	4349	12858	2363	33611	20737	2552	7072	28992	7726	6344	9729	3660	17761	2477	19324	10260	7399	23755	28082	2624	3670	4439	7674	5590	3919	15543	8235	7913	6238	5029	2789	6836	28368	11903	4865	5974	4574	4630	4265	7672	2814	4202	12404	6974	5992	3403	9726	5010	21022	6813	10959	3753	11889	4377	19658	7394	6848	18948	3959	7836	5853	6444	25569	6152	7702	4335	23893	5153	5222	22439	6578	7059	6688	6382	14123	8267	4937	6603	16219	11241	28571	16029	22693	8406	53295	31252	4547	20585	5772	6200	44699	17404	12069	3542	2338	46984	6793	24914	2263	3022	14923	1930	2976	6275	10696	18043	4041	5484	5948	21358	7541	33337	1852	5301	7116	5767	4812	7528	2771	9137	10750	3563	4873	15926	15389	6670	27081	7362	4419	20449	8549	8937	12522	8366	12877	11891	9992	30959	8215	5161	8567	4092	9943	2290	18623	6004	5526	4704	17471	5512	5014	5932	7260	1318	1654	20289	29802	5085	4574	21884	4266	6501	37245	13110	13670	12895	5401	4425	5170	6217	13561	1532	4078	6294	4165	5071	4310	5256	6945	4656	7798	10168	12447	13803	21268	6747	7252	15142	7798	4724	5247	17993	13639	17501	4429	3270	19356	5125	14837	12662	9815	15677	4548	5137	2678	9531	8966	4737	2675	10718	5792	16828	7666	3690	929	27405	14733	5314	4548	4564	20848	22538	23524	20475	16059	6359	7298	5452	7503	4104	7422	5645	1113	7946	3857	3684	5742	13055	25607	14845	4501	7635	22525	6171	7493	22262	5371	4746	5559	9400	6042	4715	11346
2021-02-05	2708	4436	7765	7215	8172	9257	10620	3611	22120	28490	15690	3857	16860	7400	6818	7665	12240	21190	90180	6090	16320	8359	5227	22390	4050	23250	6511	41410	10110	5837	26320	6559	13500	27860	5524	23190	5648	8715	6144	9202	15200	12340	5122	13220	6286	9580	7744	7907	14230	10630	11980	3439	8376	18530	19410	5363	4417	3897	6872	10320	2689	4393	12960	2371	33750	20870	2560	7109	29100	7762	6372	9756	3675	17850	2496	19410	10330	7418	23890	28270	2641	3680	4459	7694	5613	3944	15600	8289	7949	6268	5065	2802	6859	28440	11930	4888	6015	4578	4656	4300	7697	2829	4225	12450	7009	6021	3431	9755	5034	21090	6848	11000	3772	11950	4400	19710	7417	6879	19020	3974	7861	5873	6468	25630	6191	7737	4363	24030	5183	5254	22570	6617	7089	6732	6404	14170	8298	4980	6678	16280	11290	28700	16100	22790	8431	53510	31380	4571	20650	5811	6208	44880	17490	12110	3552	2352	47200	6848	24970	2276	3040	14990	1947	2989	6291	10760	18120	4052	5516	5977	21420	7566	33440	1856	5326	7140	5807	4838	7556	2784	9171	10810	3582	4903	16020	15440	6725	27220	7408	4442	20520	8594	8963	12610	8397	12920	11960	10040	31040	8255	5196	8603	4107	10000	2300	18690	6015	5543	4719	17550	5543	5034	5966	7293	1358	1661	20390	29990	5100	4593	21980	4284	6517	37380	13200	13740	12970	5433	4441	5206	6251	13630	1540	4109	6343	4169	5091	4326	5277	6987	4690	7831	10210	12520	13860	21350	6780	7282	15240	7832	4739	5280	18080	13710	17580	4447	3292	19480	5139	14900	12690	9860	15740	4571	5156	2691	9606	9012	4784	2687	10750	5809	16860	7690	3724	930	27460	14800	5334	4564	4582	20930	22720	23590	20550	16150	6387	7324	5472	7516	4136	7452	5685	1118	7969	3867	3701	5774	13100	25700	14930	4523	7662	22620	6206	7519	22380	5408	4767	5597	9452	6071	4744	11380
2021-02-06	2719	4471	7801	7246	8214	9275	10670	3625	22180	28560	15750	3877	16910	7416	6854	7682	12310	21240	90580	6115	16390	8397	5255	22490	4069	23360	6544	41560	10150	5882	26410	6568	13520	27970	5551	23250	5662	8743	6175	9223	15240	12380	5142	13250	6316	9602	7754	7931	14300	10670	12020	3452	8391	18600	19500	5397	4439	3913	6897	10370	2704	4434	13010	2382	33890	20980	2567	7139	29180	7801	6402	9781	3688	17930	2514	19470	10410	7436	24000	28380	2660	3691	4479	7713	5637	3965	15650	8335	7985	6274	5090	2818	6876	28510	11950	4909	6050	4583	4679	4322	7718	2841	4251	12480	7042	6054	3460	9787	5065	21160	6876	11040	3790	11990	4420	19760	7439	6910	19090	3986	7893	5890	6493	25690	6205	7767	4388	24150	5214	5280	22660	6652	7112	6761	6426	14220	8324	5026	6709	16320	11340	28800	16170	22860	8459	53700	31470	4595	20710	5840	6223	45000	17550	12130	3564	2364	47360	6896	25030	2289	3061	15050	1959	2998	6306	10810	18190	4067	5536	6011	21480	7593	33540	1860	5351	7159	5833	4865	7583	2796	9195	10860	3601	4931	16110	15500	6778	27370	7441	4463	20590	8623	8986	12670	8408	12980	12030	10100	31120	8299	5229	8618	4124	10050	2311	18740	6033	5559	4741	17600	5576	5053	5996	7320	1379	1664	20460	30090	5108	4614	22060	4303	6534	37510	13280	13790	13040	5470	4455	5228	6279	13690	1547	4134	6377	4181	5109	4340	5285	7028	4714	7850	10240	12590	13900	21420	6808	7309	15320	7854	4754	5311	18160	13780	17630	4463	3307	19580	5158	14960	12720	9900	15790	4596	5177	2706	9651	9039	4822	2700	10780	5823	16900	7705	3743	932	27510	14830	5351	4575	4599	21010	22850	23660	20600	16210	6412	7359	5490	7531	4165	7485	5714	1124	7980	3880	3717	5791	13140	25780	14990	4536	7692	22660	6230	7545	22460	5436	4785	5641	9507	6101	4771	11410
2021-02-07	2727	4505	7835	7278	8247	9295	10720	3639	22230	28640	15820	3897	16940	7433	6893	7697	12370	21290	90920	6140	16450	8435	5287	22590	4085	23480	6573	41720	10190	5928	26510	6577	13550	28060	5582	23310	5672	8771	6202	9243	15280	12420	5161	13280	6346	9621	7768	7953	14370	10710	12060	3463	8407	18670	19580	5429	4460	3929	6920	10420	2719	4475	13070	2393	34020	21050	2574	7169	29250	7843	6423	9806	3705	18000	2533	19550	10480	7454	24090	28470	2679	3702	4492	7731	5662	3983	15710	8382	8021	6277	5117	2833	6893	28590	11970	4924	6084	4588	4698	4343	7741	2848	4270	12520	7073	6086	3488	9818	5098	21220	6904	11070	3807	12040	4440	19800	7461	6938	19150	3994	7922	5905	6517	25750	6217	7795	4413	24270	5246	5295	22750	6684	7130	6784	6448	14270	8347	5071	6746	16370	11390	28900	16240	22910	8482	53890	31560	4615	20760	5873	6237	45130	17620	12150	3575	2377	47520	6945	25080	2302	3082	15110	1972	3007	6317	10870	18260	4081	5557	6037	21530	7622	33620	1864	5377	7181	5850	4892	7610	2812	9218	10910	3620	4957	16170	15560	6831	27510	7474	4483	20660	8636	9013	12720	8420	13030	12090	10170	31200	8343	5263	8644	4141	10100	2322	18800	6049	5575	4750	17660	5609	5072	6026	7342	1398	1667	20540	30180	5117	4632	22130	4321	6550	37640	13350	13830	13090	5506	4469	5260	6298	13750	1554	4163	6418	4190	5129	4356	5291	7075	4737	7864	10280	12660	13950	21470	6836	7337	15390	7879	4769	5341	18240	13850	17690	4472	3323	19680	5173	15010	12740	9950	15840	4625	5199	2722	9701	9066	4858	2711	10800	5841	16940	7717	3764	934	27550	14870	5365	4585	4611	21070	22960	23710	20650	16280	6436	7386	5503	7545	4187	7517	5738	1129	8001	3892	3730	5813	13170	25840	15030	4552	7722	22720	6249	7566	22520	5458	4798	5681	9563	6131	4800	11450
2021-02-08	2739	4542	7888	7341	8326	9321	10790	3653	22300	28760	15890	3918	16990	7465	6940	7732	12450	21340	91420	6165	16530	8479	5334	22700	4110	23630	6613	41910	10270	5978	26640	6587	13610	28210	5619	23390	5700	8799	6239	9278	15340	12470	5184	13320	6380	9656	7790	7982	14430	10760	12100	3477	8423	18780	19680	5465	4482	3947	6954	10470	2734	4519	13160	2405	34200	21190	2580	7215	29360	7885	6460	9832	3721	18090	2552	19630	10580	7472	24240	28680	2698	3716	4531	7753	5688	4012	15770	8437	8058	6309	5154	2848	6910	28670	12000	4948	6121	4593	4727	4398	7774	2864	4298	12570	7110	6119	3520	9849	5137	21290	6936	11130	3825	12100	4460	19870	7484	6980	19240	4010	7954	5937	6546	25820	6256	7831	4440	24400	5280	5328	22890	6726	7165	6821	6470	14320	8378	5117	6816	16430	11440	29060	16310	23030	8543	54130	31710	4638	20850	5910	6255	45300	17730	12200	3589	2398	47730	6993	25150	2315	3104	15180	1985	3018	6333	10950	18330	4096	5585	6075	21590	7655	33760	1868	5406	7203	5889	4920	7639	2833	9260	10980	3639	4989	16270	15630	6885	27660	7525	4504	20730	8688	9048	12840	8445	13110	12160	10230	31280	8393	5296	8704	4158	10160	2334	18900	6067	5591	4766	17760	5641	5092	6058	7380	1419	1674	20650	30370	5131	4660	22220	4340	6566	37820	13450	13890	13160	5549	4485	5298	6346	13810	1561	4200	6469	4203	5167	4372	5322	7126	4782	7915	10320	12740	14000	21550	6869	7366	15490	7902	4787	5373	18330	13920	17770	4496	3341	19800	5198	15090	12760	10000	15920	4663	5221	2739	9781	9108	4902	2726	10840	5863	17000	7736	3798	937	27620	14940	5382	4601	4633	21200	23130	23790	20750	16350	6462	7424	5529	7577	4222	7563	5784	1135	8033	3904	3749	5856	13220	25930	15120	4578	7751	22840	6281	7605	22650	5504	4825	5733	9626	6164	4830	11490
2021-02-09	2751	4579	7951	7401	8395	9344	10850	3667	22370	28870	15970	3939	17040	7490	6994	7775	12520	21400	91870	6190	16620	8526	5377	22800	4127	23760	6649	42060	10320	6029	26750	6600	13680	28330	5657	23450	5723	8826	6279	9315	15390	12520	5205	13370	6420	9712	7832	8007	14500	10810	12140	3491	8438	18870	19800	5508	4504	3964	6989	10520	2749	4564	13250	2416	34390	21320	2592	7256	29470	7926	6497	9857	3735	18240	2570	19700	10690	7490	24370	28820	2717	3728	4560	7775	5715	4043	15830	8492	8094	6344	5195	2864	6927	28740	12030	4971	6159	4598	4758	4443	7817	2873	4333	12620	7154	6152	3550	9880	5185	21350	6966	11190	3842	12160	4480	19950	7506	7011	19310	4027	7986	5961	6569	25870	6277	7881	4467	24520	5312	5355	23000	6766	7194	6860	6496	14370	8405	5163	6895	16480	11490	29160	16380	23110	8618	54370	31950	4665	20910	5959	6280	45520	17810	12250	3601	2415	47930	7041	25220	2328	3125	15240	1996	3028	6360	11030	18400	4110	5614	6110	21650	7686	33870	1872	5441	7222	5921	4947	7668	2851	9290	11040	3658	5022	16360	15710	6938	27810	7563	4524	20800	8717	9079	12960	8463	13190	12220	10290	31360	8451	5329	8778	4176	10210	2349	18980	6087	5607	4781	17850	5674	5113	6090	7412	1439	1679	20730	30560	5142	4694	22360	4360	6583	37970	13550	13960	13230	5600	4499	5336	6394	13890	1567	4237	6519	4222	5217	4388	5345	7177	4820	7986	10360	12810	14050	21640	6901	7393	15590	7925	4810	5406	18420	14000	17850	4515	3360	19920	5217	15140	12800	10040	16000	4698	5243	2755	9849	9140	4953	2739	10870	5880	17040	7758	3824	940	27670	14990	5407	4621	4659	21290	23290	23860	20830	16440	6489	7460	5550	7605	4266	7626	5823	1140	8069	3916	3766	5910	13280	26030	15210	4602	7781	22920	6313	7638	22780	5536	4855	5779	9684	6199	4858	11520
2021-02-10	2763	4615	8003	7475	8452	9362	10900	3681	22450	29000	16050	3959	17080	7515	7044	7820	12590	21450	92370	6216	16710	8572	5424	22900	4148	23910	6683	42280	10370	6079	26860	6610	13740	28490	5701	23520	5749	8855	6322	9344	15450	12580	5227	13420	6457	9750	7865	8031	14560	10860	12180	3505	8455	18980	19900	5552	4527	3982	7015	10580	2764	4608	13380	2432	34570	21440	2603	7295	29570	7972	6538	9882	3750	18350	2589	19780	10800	7508	24500	28950	2736	3740	4592	7798	5740	4082	15900	8551	8134	6376	5228	2879	6945	28830	12050	4992	6198	4603	4788	4500	7841	2895	4359	12670	7198	6185	3580	9912	5223	21420	6992	11230	3860	12230	4500	20010	7531	7045	19400	4040	8020	5994	6594	25930	6308	7924	4494	24650	5343	5382	23100	6818	7224	6909	6529	14420	8439	5209	6950	16540	11540	29340	16460	23200	8667	54660	32130	4687	20980	6004	6299	45670	17900	12310	3612	2431	48130	7091	25280	2341	3147	15310	2009	3037	6378	11110	18470	4125	5641	6144	21710	7724	33990	1877	5477	7244	5965	4974	7696	2868	9326	11090	3678	5054	16450	15780	6992	27960	7605	4545	20880	8758	9111	13090	8487	13270	12290	10350	31450	8508	5363	8827	4193	10260	2361	19050	6113	5624	4798	17960	5707	5134	6124	7442	1458	1682	20820	30770	5153	4727	22460	4379	6600	38150	13650	14030	13290	5654	4514	5373	6437	13950	1575	4273	6567	4237	5248	4403	5363	7222	4863	8026	10400	12880	14100	21710	6929	7424	15670	7952	4836	5439	18520	14080	17910	4540	3379	20040	5235	15220	12820	10090	16080	4733	5265	2770	9928	9173	4995	2753	10900	5900	17100	7780	3846	945	27720	15060	5430	4636	4679	21400	23470	23940	20930	16530	6513	7503	5568	7650	4303	7669	5861	1146	8101	3928	3782	5967	13340	26110	15290	4630	7811	23000	6343	7677	22890	5575	4889	5825	9737	6233	4885	11560
2021-02-11	2775	4652	8051	7558	8505	9380	10980	3695	22520	29090	16120	3979	17130	7547	7092	7861	12660	21490	92890	6241	16780	8615	5464	23010	4169	24060	6727	42460	10430	6130	26970	6619	13790	28650	5743	23590	5769	8883	6366	9396	15500	12630	5249	13450	6494	9774	7902	8053	14630	10910	12220	3519	8478	19070	20000	5590	4554	4001	7052	10630	2779	4659	13490	2444	34750	21570	2611	7340	29650	8017	6576	9908	3769	18470	2608	19870	10900	7526	24630	29090	2759	3757	4616	7820	5764	4116	15950	8605	8179	6407	5260	2895	6962	28920	12080	5011	6233	4608	4822	4544	7873	2913	4387	12710	7243	6219	3611	9944	5270	21480	7021	11280	3878	12300	4521	20070	7551	7077	19490	4053	8052	6031	6623	26000	6333	7965	4524	24790	5377	5410	23220	6863	7256	6957	6552	14470	8470	5256	7016	16590	11590	29460	16530	23300	8727	54890	32290	4710	21060	6041	6318	45850	17990	12340	3624	2446	48330	7140	25350	2355	3168	15370	2023	3048	6398	11190	18540	4140	5673	6181	21770	7761	34110	1881	5511	7266	5998	5002	7726	2897	9368	11150	3697	5086	16550	15860	7047	28100	7660	4565	20950	8805	9141	13200	8513	13350	12360	10420	31530	8555	5396	8883	4211	10310	2373	19130	6131	5640	4817	18050	5741	5153	6155	7467	1476	1687	20900	30930	5162	4757	22570	4401	6616	38330	13760	14090	13370	5693	4530	5407	6487	14010	1582	4308	6618	4254	5279	4420	5380	7266	4906	8067	10450	12960	14140	21780	6961	7453	15770	7974	4854	5478	18610	14150	17980	4557	3399	20150	5255	15280	12850	10140	16160	4777	5287	2785	9991	9206	5044	2767	10930	5922	17150	7801	3872	947	27770	15110	5454	4650	4699	21500	23630	24010	21000	16620	6539	7552	5596	7687	4338	7718	5899	1151	8128	3940	3796	6005	13400	26190	15360	4650	7841	23080	6371	7717	22990	5605	4923	5872	9810	6267	4922	11590

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-04 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-04