COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-07

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-28	12-30	12-27	12-21	12-28	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-30	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-30	12-27	12-28	2021-01-03	12-27	12-30	11-15	12-30	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-13	12-28	12-30	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-28	11-03	12-21	12-28	12-25	12-08	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-28	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	2021-01-12	10-14	12-28	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-28	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-28	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-04	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-29	2021-01-04	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-28	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-28	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-29	12-28	12-30	12-28	12-25	12-29	2021-01-01	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-30	12-28	12-28	12-31	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-30	12-30	12-28	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-28	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-30	12-30	12-30	12-22	11-04	12-30	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-28	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	11-04	12-28	12-21	12-30	12-30	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-30	12-30	2021-01-04	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	11-03	2021-01-04	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-28	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-28	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-30	12-29	12-24	12-28	12-30	12-28	12-29	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-28	12-25	2021-01-02	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-22	12-20	12-31	12-28	12-28	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-28	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-29	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-30	12-30	12-23	12-30	12-31	12-27	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-29	12-22	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-28	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-29	12-30	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-28	12-30	12-29	12-30	12-30	12-28
Peak daily increment	62	90	97	172	110	172	178	77	477	588	191	59	326	133	104	109	232	422	1268	74	159	69	57	161	49	494	141	441	228	110	525	155	312	322	107	505	93	189	63	132	123	141	98	259	87	149	173	173	301	89	265	55	199	250	293	61	90	71	69	244	53	98	294	35	368	291	40	184	605	151	69	188	72	252	24	249	190	118	323	539	60	55	77	160	110	52	225	104	169	149	108	55	143	591	271	95	74	54	89	74	125	54	38	122	83	92	57	180	90	453	120	223	59	200	57	405	175	107	342	101	110	135	122	482	103	156	48	449	58	116	450	142	85	136	236	280	152	73	100	126	197	193	312	446	112	384	291	104	451	72	113	732	272	200	90	38	387	92	420	29	47	297	49	62	148	118	361	79	108	64	123	85	738	23	50	159	105	50	108	59	129	122	41	58	281	157	131	229	92	44	129	128	111	158	116	205	104	178	621	95	81	171	52	187	40	136	139	57	96	199	86	86	61	176	41	26	166	454	44	82	413	67	130	244	219	245	167	98	107	103	70	180	27	42	85	82	96	79	109	81	68	104	113	245	294	466	131	153	219	93	57	112	179	132	194	66	42	201	106	322	189	181	128	57	107	49	140	321	91	45	138	123	369	138	52	11	557	153	92	107	85	258	327	453	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	84	42	67	119	218	222	270	83	149	441	107	140	381	106	116	99	176	72	72	189
Days since peak	41	39	42	48	41	61	48	46	43	46	117	42	46	39	27	39	42	47	39	42	41	35	42	39	84	39	48	101	47	41	42	56	41	39	44	48	43	47	39	39	41	96	48	41	44	61	41	48	48	44	47	40	43	47	48	36	48	48	39	43	42	41	40	47	47	41	41	41	41	48	44	48	48	41	26	116	41	62	43	42	45	40	41	48	97	43	99	41	39	41	48	41	47	44	55	47	34	48	46	41	51	40	34	41	39	48	41	41	48	41	48	41	47	48	48	41	47	41	41	47	47	56	41	46	39	48	40	41	39	41	44	40	37	39	42	41	39	41	41	38	48	41	42	39	39	41	41	48	41	41	70	42	42	47	48	39	39	39	47	95	39	48	48	48	47	44	47	43	41	41	35	95	41	61	42	105	43	48	95	48	39	96	48	95	41	48	39	39	39	42	41	40	39	39	34	40	36	40	48	96	34	47	41	48	41	41	56	38	56	113	39	42	41	41	12	36	40	40	35	48	39	40	45	41	39	41	40	48	47	41	41	41	44	36	47	90	45	47	49	38	41	41	47	48	55	41	43	48	35	44	99	47	41	41	98	48	46	43	40	48	62	44	39	39	46	39	38	42	48	41	48	48	57	46	39	40	47	39	47	43	48	102	41	41	51	44	48	48	47	48	42	41	49	56	41	62	47	41	41	40	39	47	47	41	41	47	41	41	41	39	40	39	39	41
Last total	2720	4455	7830	7303	8260	9292	10679	3611	22200	28601	15803	3877	16899	7453	6883	7691	12326	21252	90853	6125	16422	8409	5244	22620	4073	23395	6532	41708	10136	5865	26490	6572	13531	28030	5544	23257	5702	8747	6209	9251	15292	12444	5141	13267	6343	9597	7785	7932	14336	10697	12010	3455	8427	18641	19504	5399	4462	3922	6925	10351	2722	4453	13033	2383	33984	21001	2567	7164	29222	7794	6415	9787	3716	17974	2508	19564	10423	7446	24011	28396	2664	3709	4497	7720	5643	3968	15737	8355	7994	6277	5092	2828	6896	28555	11959	4899	6059	4607	4693	4357	7719	2836	4261	12538	7094	6034	3448	9766	5068	21169	6872	11084	3810	12003	4441	19776	7441	6906	19121	3983	7920	5905	6501	25751	6193	7770	4393	24118	5218	5283	22690	6680	7116	6764	6422	14226	8342	5055	6692	16383	11348	28894	16224	22872	8483	53911	31593	4578	20719	5849	6250	45170	17673	12165	3565	2368	47401	6913	25028	2294	3055	15079	1974	3007	6329	10888	18177	4077	5552	6060	21513	7612	33580	1856	5369	7160	5855	4860	7605	2796	9230	10868	3619	4947	16159	15532	6775	27433	7451	4466	20607	8619	9002	12729	8422	13006	12059	10080	31153	8301	5236	8640	4132	10035	2308	18795	6042	5566	4724	17671	5601	5089	6020	7329	1354	1678	20512	30236	5126	4659	22136	4323	6544	37617	13316	13823	13088	5481	4463	5240	6290	13739	1544	4135	6376	4189	5123	4352	5316	7066	4704	7903	10270	12647	13885	21401	6812	7320	15355	7866	4762	5321	18184	13797	17680	4484	3324	19616	5151	14955	12708	9905	15832	4613	5189	2716	9682	9048	4802	2695	10783	5845	16922	7704	3740	934	27537	14846	5360	4574	4606	21115	22935	23679	20638	16212	6427	7374	5492	7556	4159	7536	5713	1114	8045	3904	3727	5798	13151	25823	15068	4534	7714	22739	6221	7565	22539	5437	4803	5649	9492	6094	4778	11427
Last daily increment	10	11	24	37	42	9	37	4	41	66	48	7	24	23	40	18	52	27	307	21	50	34	15	97	11	71	17	155	18	12	73	13	16	102	11	31	20	10	22	18	51	41	11	24	35	16	14	16	54	29	17	7	13	52	50	17	23	9	25	13	15	22	57	6	100	61	1	20	62	13	27	17	11	65	4	67	46	17	73	86	12	8	19	12	12	20	66	43	11	7	17	14	21	50	16	11	24	8	18	32	9	4	16	45	41	9	16	11	9	33	19	46	23	26	24	28	13	21	43	3	24	14	17	53	12	20	20	50	18	12	70	31	20	5	12	20	15	35	28	42	26	88	61	40	27	172	102	5	30	32	13	129	84	25	5	13	130	31	31	7	15	40	6	7	12	67	45	8	19	31	53	19	55	0	21	13	18	10	22	4	35	38	12	22	64	43	22	89	20	8	56	13	22	62	13	32	63	28	48	21	20	18	7	24	8	46	8	13	6	73	27	11	38	19	5	6	50	108	5	28	53	27	6	88	54	49	57	23	7	17	26	52	2	12	17	9	17	7	12	37	16	35	28	59	19	31	23	17	83	17	13	19	63	44	49	13	13	82	5	30	11	25	37	20	9	15	41	9	22	6	8	12	31	10	11	1	27	27	7	9	14	95	89	33	42	47	16	18	9	18	8	31	16	1	22	25	9	10	28	67	68	10	26	66	15	25	74	17	18	25	35	9	14	26
Last week	59	171	244	256	316	132	329	52	398	571	394	105	219	186	254	161	398	332	2599	172	358	223	177	676	84	757	178	978	182	205	663	73	242	679	160	359	145	167	171	148	328	348	103	219	185	105	140	108	393	279	196	73	150	519	493	171	173	109	208	302	99	253	375	50	801	664	45	220	601	174	178	156	101	538	90	474	418	119	594	794	87	69	133	117	131	136	376	305	222	115	190	76	129	438	130	110	199	44	170	232	123	64	139	285	249	130	117	127	168	398	166	293	110	289	142	294	135	144	427	76	152	103	151	396	134	181	153	662	147	144	622	255	157	180	135	225	174	249	303	343	262	691	429	475	210	1323	824	95	370	203	82	1131	568	282	57	76	1050	297	303	70	83	386	100	68	109	442	384	66	176	221	337	167	593	17	160	128	180	134	177	78	255	290	111	165	536	345	290	774	205	123	424	201	152	486	150	335	392	250	457	229	198	211	81	263	55	379	96	98	47	482	195	135	199	171	168	49	507	1065	96	176	662	114	98	776	503	392	404	200	91	188	175	408	38	155	210	61	123	89	123	257	135	237	221	439	266	356	177	165	537	193	93	190	507	395	460	118	110	637	60	329	144	225	334	155	106	84	369	238	178	57	166	112	225	95	123	10	269	311	98	92	121	571	984	367	418	414	162	170	107	140	151	224	203	20	204	77	89	167	253	544	533	118	176	528	182	164	644	175	134	192	261	142	134	196
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	11-01	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	06-14	--	--	11-01	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	09-30	11-02	--	10-25	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-11	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	11-02	--	--	10-29	10-25	10-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		63							29			77	72			95		163	99	55	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293		20							165	29		57						27			31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65							48		43		52				59							296		360	152		86	541	75			60		529					611	61								71					391				51										68			608	68		256				82		102				43		41	42		196		64			44		67				237	232	86		183			435	113		94			25	66	141							24	71		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				137				38		31		65	41	130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	62		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106		9							53	7		18						10			15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	23				18							12		11		14				21							61		94	20		23	154	15			21		58					136	19								34					54				14										6			70	30		57				19		40				13		12	20		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34		42			10	22	57							11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								35	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18	13	15

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-08 to 2021-02-14

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-07	2720	4455	7830	7303	8260	9292	10679	3611	22200	28601	15803	3877	16899	7453	6883	7691	12326	21252	90853	6125	16422	8409	5244	22620	4073	23395	6532	41708	10136	5865	26490	6572	13531	28030	5544	23257	5702	8747	6209	9251	15292	12444	5141	13267	6343	9597	7785	7932	14336	10697	12010	3455	8427	18641	19504	5399	4462	3922	6925	10351	2722	4453	13033	2383	33984	21001	2567	7164	29222	7794	6415	9787	3716	17974	2508	19564	10423	7446	24011	28396	2664	3709	4497	7720	5643	3968	15737	8355	7994	6277	5092	2828	6896	28555	11959	4899	6059	4607	4693	4357	7719	2836	4261	12538	7094	6034	3448	9766	5068	21169	6872	11084	3810	12003	4441	19776	7441	6906	19121	3983	7920	5905	6501	25751	6193	7770	4393	24118	5218	5283	22690	6680	7116	6764	6422	14226	8342	5055	6692	16383	11348	28894	16224	22872	8483	53911	31593	4578	20719	5849	6250	45170	17673	12165	3565	2368	47401	6913	25028	2294	3055	15079	1974	3007	6329	10888	18177	4077	5552	6060	21513	7612	33580	1856	5369	7160	5855	4860	7605	2796	9230	10868	3619	4947	16159	15532	6775	27433	7451	4466	20607	8619	9002	12729	8422	13006	12059	10080	31153	8301	5236	8640	4132	10035	2308	18795	6042	5566	4724	17671	5601	5089	6020	7329	1354	1678	20512	30236	5126	4659	22136	4323	6544	37617	13316	13823	13088	5481	4463	5240	6290	13739	1544	4135	6376	4189	5123	4352	5316	7066	4704	7903	10270	12647	13885	21401	6812	7320	15355	7866	4762	5321	18184	13797	17680	4484	3324	19616	5151	14955	12708	9905	15832	4613	5189	2716	9682	9048	4802	2695	10783	5845	16922	7704	3740	934	27537	14846	5360	4574	4606	21115	22935	23679	20638	16212	6427	7374	5492	7556	4159	7536	5713	1114	8045	3904	3727	5798	13151	25823	15068	4534	7714	22739	6221	7565	22539	5437	4803	5649	9492	6094	4778	11427
2021-02-08	2727	4546	7952	7374	8382	9342	10760	3624	22270	28860	15870	3892	17010	7479	6947	7724	12420	21310	91550	6154	16470	8448	5256	22760	4111	23670	6621	42010	10170	5909	26700	6584	13550	28220	5648	23330	5726	8787	6221	9297	15370	12500	5161	13310	6395	9673	7810	7951	14410	10750	12030	3460	8549	18770	19700	5410	4476	3946	6942	10400	2737	4527	13090	2387	34060	21210	2576	7237	29320	7808	6489	9820	3723	18140	2525	19700	10570	7465	24290	28740	2685	3721	4522	7743	5666	3995	15800	8427	8035	6345	5150	2844	6917	28760	11980	4921	6095	4615	4752	4436	7766	2870	4287	12660	7128	6074	3528	9793	5115	21240	6904	11170	3827	12060	4465	19900	7456	6931	19320	4020	7951	5941	6527	25820	6229	7801	4440	24230	5228	5312	22900	6705	7161	6799	6432	14240	8430	5099	6828	16470	11390	29120	16320	23160	8510	54310	31800	4594	20790	5886	6283	45390	17870	12200	3571	2380	47590	6961	25090	2307	3062	15140	1988	3019	6349	10940	18250	4085	5600	6096	21570	7651	33800	1860	5411	7180	5964	4886	7634	2815	9276	10970	3638	4974	16290	15740	6822	27570	7496	4485	20720	8719	9025	12790	8478	13070	12100	10110	31230	8335	5270	8727	4150	10080	2319	18960	6093	5589	4743	17810	5641	5113	6052	7363	1365	1683	20630	30520	5139	4688	22390	4342	6569	37940	13430	13940	13180	5517	4480	5281	6387	13840	1551	4204	6474	4205	5146	4371	5370	7112	4753	7955	10320	12730	13930	21460	6842	7348	15480	7916	4780	5384	18350	13850	17760	4516	3343	19750	5190	14980	12760	9970	16020	4687	5213	2742	9820	9067	4813	2727	10800	5862	16970	7712	3802	936	27580	14930	5384	4591	4614	21280	23120	23730	20790	16240	6449	7386	5573	7586	4189	7655	5816	1116	8083	3919	3743	5822	13270	25960	15220	4546	7733	22900	6243	7662	22660	5545	4911	5690	9584	6173	4860	11550
2021-02-09	2733	4582	8017	7382	8437	9367	10810	3638	22330	28950	15940	3905	17040	7505	7004	7759	12510	21370	91950	6183	16500	8487	5269	22870	4128	23820	6654	42100	10200	5953	26800	6595	13570	28320	5685	23390	5751	8826	6233	9315	15420	12540	5182	13350	6423	9689	7835	7970	14480	10800	12040	3466	8590	18860	19800	5422	4489	3964	6960	10460	2750	4578	13150	2390	34130	21340	2586	7271	29410	7824	6515	9850	3731	18250	2543	19770	10630	7482	24410	28900	2705	3732	4547	7767	5689	4022	15870	8479	8079	6361	5189	2860	6938	28820	12000	4942	6131	4622	4785	4468	7766	2876	4313	12720	7161	6083	3548	9819	5120	21320	6936	11230	3843	12110	4488	19960	7471	6957	19400	4043	7983	5950	6542	25890	6250	7827	4469	24340	5238	5342	23000	6713	7186	6836	6441	14260	8470	5143	6890	16520	11430	29200	16410	23280	8535	54490	31950	4610	20860	5923	6296	45560	17990	12250	3579	2391	47700	7009	25150	2319	3068	15210	2002	3030	6370	10990	18320	4093	5637	6132	21620	7676	33880	1864	5436	7200	6009	4911	7674	2818	9314	11030	3657	5000	16390	15830	6866	27690	7513	4505	20800	8760	9047	12820	8500	13110	12130	10140	31300	8367	5303	8784	4168	10120	2331	19050	6116	5611	4743	17880	5678	5138	6084	7397	1377	1689	20710	30720	5151	4716	22540	4359	6594	38060	13540	14010	13250	5535	4498	5318	6424	13910	1558	4242	6517	4220	5168	4390	5402	7157	4759	8002	10380	12800	13970	21520	6872	7376	15550	7952	4798	5422	18440	13900	17840	4537	3362	19850	5195	15010	12790	10000	16090	4715	5236	2766	9900	9091	4825	2736	10820	5879	17010	7724	3830	938	27620	14970	5393	4608	4622	21360	23310	23780	20870	16290	6471	7398	5597	7597	4220	7712	5864	1119	8112	3934	3760	5844	13330	26040	15320	4569	7752	22990	6268	7706	22760	5587	4938	5732	9622	6212	4884	11590
2021-02-10	2740	4610	8069	7398	8483	9395	10860	3651	22390	29050	16010	3920	17080	7530	7047	7792	12600	21430	92340	6212	16540	8525	5283	22970	4147	23950	6680	42320	10230	5996	26890	6607	13590	28450	5721	23460	5775	8864	6245	9329	15480	12620	5202	13390	6448	9703	7860	7989	14550	10850	12060	3471	8639	18940	19910	5435	4501	3978	6978	10510	2764	4614	13210	2394	34210	21460	2595	7302	29510	7838	6550	9880	3739	18350	2560	19840	10690	7500	24520	29040	2726	3744	4571	7790	5712	4048	15930	8521	8121	6380	5219	2875	6960	28920	12010	4963	6167	4630	4825	4514	7766	2891	4338	12800	7195	6086	3566	9846	5137	21390	6967	11270	3859	12160	4510	20010	7485	6982	19480	4056	8013	5962	6548	25960	6279	7856	4494	24450	5249	5371	23110	6736	7217	6873	6450	14280	8512	5187	6938	16570	11470	29350	16490	23400	8561	54740	32100	4626	20930	5958	6308	45710	18110	12290	3585	2402	47830	7057	25210	2332	3075	15270	2015	3042	6389	11050	18400	4101	5668	6167	21680	7707	33980	1867	5460	7220	6069	4936	7699	2824	9363	11080	3676	5026	16490	15920	6909	27820	7534	4524	20880	8811	9069	12860	8533	13150	12170	10170	31370	8400	5336	8817	4185	10170	2342	19130	6140	5632	4743	17970	5716	5162	6116	7431	1387	1694	20790	30960	5164	4744	22690	4376	6619	38220	13650	14080	13320	5553	4515	5347	6456	13980	1564	4268	6553	4235	5189	4410	5428	7201	4766	8039	10430	12860	14010	21580	6901	7403	15640	8000	4815	5465	18530	13960	17930	4565	3380	19960	5195	15040	12820	10040	16170	4743	5259	2790	9970	9114	4837	2744	10840	5896	17050	7733	3846	941	27650	15030	5401	4625	4630	21470	23480	23830	20930	16320	6493	7410	5619	7607	4250	7754	5920	1121	8141	3948	3776	5866	13390	26120	15440	4575	7770	23080	6302	7755	22850	5644	4969	5773	9665	6239	4901	11640
2021-02-11	2746	4642	8119	7410	8530	9411	10910	3665	22450	29100	16070	3933	17130	7556	7092	7826	12690	21490	92750	6240	16590	8563	5297	23070	4161	24070	6722	42490	10260	6040	26960	6618	13610	28570	5747	23530	5799	8901	6257	9369	15530	12670	5223	13430	6476	9703	7885	8007	14620	10900	12080	3477	8680	19020	19990	5448	4514	4010	6997	10560	2777	4666	13270	2397	34290	21600	2605	7339	29600	7852	6582	9910	3747	18450	2577	19920	10760	7517	24610	29170	2746	3755	4596	7813	5734	4075	16000	8572	8165	6393	5253	2891	6981	28960	12030	4984	6202	4638	4863	4560	7800	2900	4364	12860	7228	6095	3591	9872	5146	21470	6998	11300	3875	12210	4533	20040	7499	7008	19560	4074	8045	5985	6553	26030	6302	7881	4521	24560	5260	5401	23220	6767	7247	6911	6458	14290	8549	5231	6997	16620	11500	29460	16580	23530	8586	54940	32220	4641	21000	5995	6340	45870	18230	12340	3593	2413	47950	7105	25280	2344	3082	15330	2030	3053	6410	11110	18470	4108	5701	6202	21730	7737	34060	1871	5486	7240	6100	4961	7727	2833	9421	11130	3695	5051	16580	16020	6952	27950	7571	4543	20950	8857	9089	12890	8559	13210	12210	10200	31430	8433	5369	8848	4203	10210	2353	19210	6165	5654	4746	18060	5752	5186	6147	7465	1398	1699	20870	31140	5176	4772	22840	4393	6644	38350	13740	14150	13380	5564	4533	5376	6486	14040	1571	4298	6589	4249	5210	4429	5451	7246	4774	8094	10480	12930	14050	21640	6930	7430	15720	8041	4832	5505	18620	14010	17990	4587	3398	20080	5195	15070	12840	10080	16250	4774	5283	2813	10040	9140	4849	2760	10860	5913	17100	7734	3865	943	27690	15080	5411	4642	4638	21570	23640	23880	20990	16370	6515	7422	5649	7634	4281	7797	5981	1124	8165	3962	3793	5888	13450	26190	15530	4580	7788	23180	6336	7792	22930	5678	4993	5815	9710	6255	4928	11690
2021-02-12	2753	4672	8181	7423	8589	9436	11000	3678	22510	29160	16140	3947	17160	7582	7123	7860	12770	21550	93080	6269	16660	8601	5311	23190	4172	24200	6752	42650	10280	6084	27080	6630	13630	28670	5773	23600	5823	8939	6270	9409	15580	12720	5243	13460	6514	9727	7910	8026	14700	10950	12100	3483	8718	19080	20080	5462	4526	4031	7015	10610	2790	4712	13330	2401	34370	21710	2614	7368	29700	7866	6604	9940	3756	18530	2595	19990	10860	7534	24720	29340	2766	3767	4620	7837	5757	4102	16060	8612	8209	6415	5273	2907	7002	29040	12050	5004	6238	4645	4887	4592	7817	2911	4389	12920	7261	6109	3615	9899	5161	21540	7030	11340	3890	12260	4555	20100	7513	7033	19630	4087	8076	6018	6559	26100	6329	7915	4546	24680	5271	5431	23330	6770	7274	6950	6466	14310	8593	5275	7050	16680	11540	29580	16670	23640	8612	55160	32330	4657	21070	6031	6355	46010	18350	12380	3600	2424	48050	7153	25340	2357	3088	15390	2044	3065	6430	11150	18540	4116	5726	6238	21780	7770	34150	1875	5517	7260	6165	4986	7750	2840	9446	11170	3714	5077	16670	16130	6995	28070	7614	4562	21010	8899	9110	12930	8581	13300	12250	10240	31500	8466	5402	8891	4220	10250	2365	19300	6184	5675	4749	18120	5788	5210	6179	7500	1409	1704	20950	31320	5189	4800	22980	4410	6668	38480	13830	14210	13450	5587	4551	5408	6514	14100	1577	4327	6634	4264	5231	4448	5479	7290	4787	8137	10530	12990	14080	21700	6959	7457	15800	8067	4850	5540	18680	14060	18050	4609	3416	20190	5197	15100	12870	10120	16330	4793	5306	2837	10110	9165	4862	2780	10870	5930	17140	7742	3895	945	27730	15140	5413	4659	4646	21660	23770	23930	21050	16440	6537	7434	5664	7649	4312	7846	6037	1126	8194	3975	3810	5910	13520	26240	15630	4588	7807	23270	6355	7830	23050	5710	5018	5857	9768	6276	4949	11730
2021-02-13	2759	4680	8216	7423	8625	9450	11030	3692	22570	29190	16210	3961	17190	7607	7149	7894	12860	21600	93310	6298	16680	8639	5326	23260	4188	24260	6762	42770	10310	6128	27130	6642	13650	28730	5786	23670	5847	8978	6282	9420	15620	12770	5264	13500	6525	9727	7935	8045	14770	11000	12120	3490	8742	19110	20130	5475	4538	4037	7033	10660	2804	4733	13390	2404	34450	21780	2624	7391	29800	7880	6620	9980	3764	18590	2613	20050	10860	7551	24780	29440	2786	3779	4645	7860	5780	4128	16120	8628	8253	6415	5285	2923	7023	29080	12070	5025	6274	4653	4907	4612	7817	2912	4415	12970	7294	6109	3623	9925	5161	21620	7061	11360	3906	12310	4578	20120	7528	7059	19660	4096	8107	6025	6559	26170	6340	7924	4555	24790	5282	5461	23410	6770	7284	6988	6474	14320	8619	5319	7062	16730	11580	29670	16760	23720	8637	55320	32390	4672	21140	6067	6370	46120	18440	12390	3607	2435	48090	7202	25400	2369	3095	15450	2058	3076	6450	11180	18620	4123	5744	6273	21840	7781	34190	1879	5532	7280	6198	5011	7775	2840	9463	11200	3733	5102	16730	16190	7038	28200	7618	4581	21050	8926	9131	12930	8591	13320	12280	10270	31570	8498	5436	8907	4238	10290	2376	19360	6207	5697	4749	18170	5825	5234	6211	7535	1420	1709	21000	31440	5202	4829	23080	4427	6693	38570	13870	14250	13490	5587	4569	5420	6529	14150	1583	4334	6652	4279	5252	4468	5501	7335	4787	8154	10580	13030	14120	21750	6989	7484	15840	8083	4867	5557	18740	14110	18100	4625	3435	20260	5197	15130	12880	10130	16400	4812	5329	2861	10140	9191	4874	2781	10890	5947	17190	7742	3899	947	27760	15160	5413	4676	4655	21720	23870	23980	21100	16460	6559	7446	5680	7649	4343	7885	6065	1129	8213	3989	3827	5932	13550	26270	15690	4588	7825	23330	6366	7851	23100	5746	5035	5899	9768	6294	4964	11760
2021-02-14	2766	4696	8242	7458	8664	9468	11050	3706	22630	29250	16280	3975	17220	7633	7186	7928	12950	21660	93580	6326	16720	8678	5340	23350	4198	24350	6778	42910	10340	6173	27220	6653	13670	28830	5806	23730	5871	9016	6294	9429	15660	12810	5284	13540	6556	9736	7959	8063	14840	11040	12140	3496	8752	19170	20180	5488	4551	4040	7052	10710	2817	4757	13450	2408	34530	21840	2634	7419	29900	7894	6642	10010	3772	18650	2630	20120	10890	7568	24870	29510	2806	3790	4669	7883	5803	4155	16190	8661	8297	6423	5304	2938	7044	29130	12080	5046	6310	4660	4919	4637	7827	2916	4440	13010	7327	6110	3639	9951	5161	21690	7093	11400	3921	12360	4600	20160	7542	7085	19710	4097	8139	6031	6578	26240	6352	7938	4573	24900	5293	5491	23470	6801	7301	7026	6483	14340	8634	5363	7084	16770	11620	29760	16850	23750	8663	55490	32490	4688	21210	6104	6378	46260	18510	12420	3614	2446	48230	7250	25460	2381	3101	15510	2072	3088	6470	11240	18690	4131	5760	6308	21890	7796	34260	1882	5555	7300	6200	5036	7796	2840	9495	11240	3752	5127	16790	16220	7082	28320	7632	4600	21090	8930	9152	12970	8606	13340	12320	10300	31640	8531	5469	8926	4256	10340	2388	19410	6218	5718	4756	18240	5861	5258	6242	7569	1432	1715	21070	31530	5214	4857	23130	4443	6718	38670	13920	14290	13540	5592	4587	5445	6548	14210	1589	4348	6676	4294	5273	4487	5507	7380	4791	8181	10630	13090	14160	21810	7018	7511	15910	8104	4885	5573	18820	14170	18150	4636	3453	20340	5207	15150	12890	10150	16430	4834	5352	2884	10180	9217	4887	2782	10910	5964	17230	7753	3913	950	27800	15190	5420	4693	4663	21800	23940	24030	21140	16500	6581	7458	5688	7658	4375	7906	6076	1132	8237	4003	3844	5953	13580	26340	15750	4595	7843	23390	6378	7869	23160	5756	5053	5941	9786	6308	4982	11790

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-08 to 2021-02-14

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-07	2720	4455	7830	7303	8260	9292	10679	3611	22200	28601	15803	3877	16899	7453	6883	7691	12326	21252	90853	6125	16422	8409	5244	22620	4073	23395	6532	41708	10136	5865	26490	6572	13531	28030	5544	23257	5702	8747	6209	9251	15292	12444	5141	13267	6343	9597	7785	7932	14336	10697	12010	3455	8427	18641	19504	5399	4462	3922	6925	10351	2722	4453	13033	2383	33984	21001	2567	7164	29222	7794	6415	9787	3716	17974	2508	19564	10423	7446	24011	28396	2664	3709	4497	7720	5643	3968	15737	8355	7994	6277	5092	2828	6896	28555	11959	4899	6059	4607	4693	4357	7719	2836	4261	12538	7094	6034	3448	9766	5068	21169	6872	11084	3810	12003	4441	19776	7441	6906	19121	3983	7920	5905	6501	25751	6193	7770	4393	24118	5218	5283	22690	6680	7116	6764	6422	14226	8342	5055	6692	16383	11348	28894	16224	22872	8483	53911	31593	4578	20719	5849	6250	45170	17673	12165	3565	2368	47401	6913	25028	2294	3055	15079	1974	3007	6329	10888	18177	4077	5552	6060	21513	7612	33580	1856	5369	7160	5855	4860	7605	2796	9230	10868	3619	4947	16159	15532	6775	27433	7451	4466	20607	8619	9002	12729	8422	13006	12059	10080	31153	8301	5236	8640	4132	10035	2308	18795	6042	5566	4724	17671	5601	5089	6020	7329	1354	1678	20512	30236	5126	4659	22136	4323	6544	37617	13316	13823	13088	5481	4463	5240	6290	13739	1544	4135	6376	4189	5123	4352	5316	7066	4704	7903	10270	12647	13885	21401	6812	7320	15355	7866	4762	5321	18184	13797	17680	4484	3324	19616	5151	14955	12708	9905	15832	4613	5189	2716	9682	9048	4802	2695	10783	5845	16922	7704	3740	934	27537	14846	5360	4574	4606	21115	22935	23679	20638	16212	6427	7374	5492	7556	4159	7536	5713	1114	8045	3904	3727	5798	13151	25823	15068	4534	7714	22739	6221	7565	22539	5437	4803	5649	9492	6094	4778	11427
2021-02-08	2729	4487	7876	7368	8337	9313	10730	3619	22260	28720	15860	3890	16940	7481	6925	7718	12380	21290	91270	6149	16480	8444	5273	22740	4094	23520	6566	41880	10180	5898	26580	6581	13560	28160	5574	23300	5728	8767	6233	9276	15360	12500	5158	13300	6370	9613	7805	7952	14390	10740	12040	3466	8457	18750	19600	5421	4485	3936	6960	10380	2736	4492	13090	2390	34130	21130	2572	7209	29310	7818	6450	9806	3733	18070	2520	19650	10490	7460	24130	28560	2679	3722	4532	7737	5662	3990	15800	8408	8021	6302	5126	2841	6913	28630	11980	4916	6087	4614	4721	4413	7733	2850	4284	12600	7131	6054	3476	9780	5092	21210	6897	11130	3827	12040	4462	19820	7457	6939	19210	3995	7948	5925	6526	25810	6221	7793	4423	24210	5242	5309	22790	6715	7146	6786	6433	14260	8376	5093	6752	16440	11380	29040	16280	22990	8525	54140	31750	4588	20760	5876	6267	45330	17780	12200	3573	2385	47580	6952	25090	2305	3067	15130	1987	3016	6345	10960	18230	4086	5580	6101	21560	7636	33700	1858	5393	7180	5894	4879	7631	2810	9275	10930	3635	4973	16240	15600	6810	27550	7487	4482	20670	8666	9028	12810	8442	13060	12110	10110	31210	8329	5261	8684	4146	10080	2317	18890	6060	5581	4731	17770	5630	5109	6047	7361	1371	1686	20600	30410	5144	4685	22240	4341	6557	37760	13390	13880	13150	5508	4476	5270	6332	13800	1548	4164	6420	4198	5145	4366	5348	7112	4732	7954	10310	12710	13910	21450	6837	7345	15450	7891	4776	5348	18270	13860	17760	4506	3342	19720	5170	15010	12730	9940	15890	4645	5204	2732	9760	9088	4825	2707	10800	5865	16960	7713	3773	936	27590	14900	5370	4586	4624	21240	23080	23730	20720	16260	6450	7397	5517	7580	4181	7585	5752	1115	8078	3919	3744	5823	13200	25910	15170	4551	7737	22850	6245	7606	22630	5480	4831	5690	9532	6120	4806	11470
2021-02-09	2738	4522	7926	7413	8396	9333	10780	3631	22340	28820	15930	3905	16970	7507	6973	7754	12450	21330	91680	6175	16530	8485	5305	22840	4111	23640	6599	42010	10220	5940	26690	6591	13610	28270	5609	23360	5752	8792	6262	9294	15400	12540	5176	13330	6403	9639	7830	7974	14460	10790	12070	3479	8477	18840	19690	5450	4505	3951	6995	10420	2748	4535	13170	2398	34270	21250	2580	7250	29410	7849	6482	9828	3750	18180	2537	19730	10550	7473	24230	28710	2696	3734	4559	7757	5687	4017	15850	8463	8058	6331	5165	2855	6930	28700	12000	4937	6123	4618	4746	4451	7743	2859	4312	12640	7167	6077	3501	9800	5121	21270	6924	11180	3843	12090	4483	19870	7474	6965	19280	4012	7977	5938	6551	25870	6243	7822	4452	24330	5267	5338	22880	6748	7169	6819	6447	14290	8402	5135	6816	16490	11420	29130	16350	23070	8563	54340	31940	4603	20820	5915	6277	45490	17870	12250	3583	2400	47760	6998	25150	2317	3083	15180	2000	3025	6361	11030	18290	4096	5607	6137	21620	7661	33790	1862	5420	7200	5923	4904	7661	2826	9310	10990	3652	5000	16330	15660	6851	27680	7517	4503	20740	8697	9054	12900	8458	13110	12170	10150	31280	8365	5291	8735	4161	10120	2327	18960	6073	5597	4736	17840	5659	5131	6078	7392	1392	1693	20690	30590	5158	4710	22340	4356	6573	37900	13470	13940	13220	5540	4490	5306	6369	13870	1553	4197	6465	4206	5176	4382	5373	7159	4758	8002	10340	12780	13950	21520	6866	7369	15530	7918	4792	5377	18360	13920	17840	4525	3361	19820	5184	15070	12760	9980	15950	4675	5219	2745	9830	9129	4860	2716	10830	5883	17010	7729	3802	938	27630	14940	5388	4605	4648	21330	23250	23790	20800	16320	6475	7427	5533	7600	4211	7629	5787	1118	8111	3930	3760	5855	13240	26010	15250	4579	7761	22930	6274	7635	22740	5512	4852	5731	9578	6154	4830	11500
2021-02-10	2746	4554	7965	7459	8443	9353	10820	3644	22410	28940	15990	3919	17010	7529	7015	7785	12520	21380	92090	6201	16590	8526	5342	22940	4130	23760	6630	42200	10250	5981	26780	6603	13640	28400	5641	23410	5773	8817	6291	9309	15460	12610	5194	13360	6429	9658	7852	7994	14520	10830	12110	3491	8498	18940	19780	5480	4525	3966	7020	10470	2761	4576	13240	2407	34410	21350	2588	7286	29510	7880	6516	9851	3767	18260	2554	19800	10620	7486	24330	28830	2713	3746	4585	7777	5712	4048	15910	8514	8093	6350	5197	2870	6947	28770	12020	4956	6159	4623	4774	4498	7754	2874	4335	12690	7202	6101	3525	9821	5151	21330	6951	11220	3858	12140	4505	19910	7492	6995	19350	4024	8006	5954	6573	25930	6269	7850	4479	24440	5294	5366	22970	6789	7193	6855	6462	14330	8433	5177	6865	16540	11460	29290	16410	23160	8598	54600	32100	4619	20890	5950	6286	45630	17950	12300	3592	2413	47940	7045	25210	2329	3098	15240	2015	3033	6376	11100	18350	4105	5629	6171	21670	7687	33900	1865	5445	7222	5958	4930	7688	2842	9349	11040	3669	5026	16410	15710	6893	27820	7549	4523	20810	8735	9074	12990	8474	13170	12230	10190	31360	8402	5321	8769	4177	10170	2338	19020	6090	5612	4745	17940	5688	5153	6109	7424	1419	1699	20770	30790	5174	4734	22440	4370	6589	38050	13550	13990	13280	5572	4503	5339	6403	13930	1559	4225	6505	4216	5200	4398	5394	7203	4784	8034	10380	12840	13980	21590	6894	7394	15610	7948	4811	5407	18450	13990	17910	4549	3378	19920	5193	15130	12780	10020	16010	4703	5235	2758	9890	9169	4894	2725	10860	5903	17050	7743	3822	940	27670	15000	5405	4621	4666	21430	23420	23840	20880	16380	6498	7457	5550	7622	4240	7661	5825	1122	8139	3941	3778	5887	13280	26100	15330	4596	7785	23010	6308	7666	22830	5551	4874	5770	9624	6182	4852	11540
2021-02-11	2754	4589	8002	7506	8492	9371	10870	3657	22480	29030	16060	3934	17050	7554	7059	7816	12580	21430	92500	6225	16640	8565	5374	23050	4146	23880	6665	42360	10280	6022	26860	6612	13690	28520	5669	23470	5799	8842	6321	9335	15510	12660	5212	13390	6457	9666	7874	8013	14580	10880	12140	3504	8515	19030	19860	5509	4548	3983	7056	10510	2773	4620	13300	2416	34560	21470	2595	7331	29590	7910	6548	9873	3784	18350	2571	19890	10690	7498	24420	28960	2730	3760	4606	7796	5738	4074	15960	8568	8129	6368	5233	2884	6964	28840	12040	4976	6196	4627	4802	4544	7777	2886	4359	12740	7237	6125	3551	9841	5181	21380	6977	11260	3873	12180	4525	19960	7510	7024	19420	4038	8035	5974	6595	25990	6289	7874	4507	24550	5320	5389	23060	6833	7218	6889	6477	14370	8459	5219	6924	16590	11500	29400	16470	23250	8632	54800	32240	4636	20950	5983	6298	45780	18040	12350	3601	2424	48120	7091	25270	2341	3114	15300	2033	3042	6391	11170	18410	4114	5655	6206	21720	7713	33990	1868	5473	7245	5981	4955	7716	2859	9399	11090	3686	5051	16490	15770	6934	27940	7588	4544	20880	8771	9101	13050	8492	13230	12290	10230	31430	8438	5351	8803	4192	10220	2349	19080	6105	5628	4757	18020	5717	5174	6139	7447	1445	1706	20860	30950	5187	4759	22540	4389	6605	38190	13620	14050	13330	5603	4519	5372	6436	13990	1564	4256	6545	4225	5222	4414	5415	7243	4810	8082	10410	12910	14020	21650	6920	7419	15700	7976	4825	5437	18530	14050	17980	4568	3398	20030	5206	15190	12800	10060	16070	4733	5251	2770	9950	9210	4928	2735	10880	5922	17100	7756	3845	942	27700	15040	5422	4635	4685	21520	23570	23900	20940	16440	6522	7487	5570	7645	4269	7694	5863	1125	8165	3952	3793	5914	13330	26180	15410	4613	7809	23090	6337	7692	22920	5581	4893	5809	9671	6205	4878	11570
2021-02-12	2761	4628	8051	7560	8556	9392	10950	3670	22540	29110	16130	3947	17080	7581	7101	7858	12650	21470	92910	6250	16700	8604	5408	23150	4162	24000	6704	42530	10310	6063	26990	6621	13740	28630	5704	23520	5820	8867	6350	9367	15550	12710	5228	13430	6493	9697	7889	8030	14640	10920	12180	3519	8532	19090	19950	5539	4571	3999	7086	10550	2785	4663	13420	2425	34710	21580	2603	7363	29670	7940	6580	9896	3801	18430	2588	19960	10770	7511	24540	29100	2747	3773	4629	7813	5763	4099	16020	8615	8165	6395	5256	2898	6981	28910	12060	4988	6231	4631	4823	4582	7798	2902	4382	12780	7272	6150	3576	9862	5211	21440	7004	11300	3889	12240	4546	20010	7527	7049	19490	4050	8065	6003	6617	26050	6315	7911	4533	24670	5346	5419	23170	6864	7243	6939	6491	14410	8488	5261	6987	16650	11540	29530	16530	23340	8659	55030	32370	4653	21010	6022	6309	45940	18130	12380	3611	2434	48300	7137	25310	2353	3129	15350	2047	3053	6408	11230	18480	4124	5681	6238	21770	7739	34080	1872	5499	7264	6024	4981	7743	2872	9423	11140	3703	5075	16580	15830	6976	28070	7632	4564	20950	8805	9122	13150	8512	13290	12350	10270	31500	8475	5381	8842	4208	10260	2360	19150	6117	5644	4770	18100	5747	5195	6169	7478	1466	1713	20950	31090	5200	4784	22640	4403	6621	38340	13680	14100	13410	5636	4533	5403	6478	14050	1569	4288	6594	4233	5248	4431	5439	7281	4845	8116	10450	12980	14060	21700	6948	7444	15780	8001	4842	5466	18610	14110	18040	4586	3420	20140	5218	15240	12830	10100	16140	4758	5267	2781	10010	9255	4970	2744	10910	5937	17130	7774	3873	945	27740	15090	5438	4646	4700	21610	23720	23950	21010	16520	6546	7517	5589	7661	4305	7734	5894	1128	8195	3963	3808	5944	13380	26240	15490	4629	7833	23180	6356	7721	23020	5606	4920	5850	9720	6236	4908	11610
2021-02-13	2769	4658	8091	7590	8598	9412	10990	3683	22580	29180	16190	3961	17120	7598	7139	7879	12740	21520	93330	6275	16750	8642	5431	23240	4180	24090	6733	42680	10330	6101	27090	6631	13770	28730	5726	23580	5834	8893	6379	9391	15600	12760	5245	13450	6526	9717	7906	8045	14710	10960	12210	3528	8547	19160	20020	5569	4591	4013	7106	10600	2798	4704	13480	2434	34830	21670	2611	7392	29750	7968	6614	9919	3817	18490	2605	20030	10830	7524	24640	29220	2765	3782	4646	7831	5788	4120	16070	8659	8201	6408	5282	2913	6998	28970	12080	5001	6263	4635	4848	4607	7811	2909	4407	12820	7309	6174	3599	9883	5240	21500	7028	11340	3904	12290	4566	20050	7545	7075	19540	4062	8094	6018	6637	26100	6333	7934	4550	24770	5372	5444	23260	6904	7260	6967	6507	14450	8513	5304	7021	16700	11580	29640	16600	23400	8681	55230	32460	4674	21070	6051	6318	46080	18190	12410	3620	2443	48450	7185	25360	2366	3145	15410	2059	3061	6425	11280	18540	4133	5700	6268	21830	7763	34160	1875	5522	7283	6052	5006	7770	2882	9447	11190	3721	5098	16680	15880	7018	28200	7655	4585	21010	8835	9138	13190	8529	13340	12400	10310	31570	8512	5411	8862	4223	10300	2371	19210	6134	5659	4788	18150	5776	5218	6198	7501	1483	1719	21020	31210	5209	4809	22720	4417	6637	38480	13740	14150	13470	5666	4545	5423	6504	14110	1574	4312	6625	4242	5267	4446	5455	7320	4868	8135	10480	13050	14090	21750	6973	7466	15850	8025	4861	5493	18680	14170	18080	4600	3435	20230	5230	15290	12850	10130	16200	4786	5283	2791	10060	9292	5003	2752	10930	5951	17160	7788	3890	947	27770	15110	5453	4658	4714	21680	23850	23990	21050	16570	6570	7547	5610	7672	4333	7768	5920	1131	8213	3974	3824	5961	13410	26290	15550	4638	7857	23230	6374	7739	23100	5630	4946	5889	9762	6261	4938	11640
2021-02-14	2775	4689	8124	7623	8632	9433	11020	3696	22620	29240	16260	3974	17150	7616	7183	7897	12800	21560	93710	6300	16800	8685	5455	23340	4196	24200	6761	42850	10350	6139	27190	6640	13810	28810	5760	23630	5846	8918	6409	9403	15640	12800	5262	13480	6559	9737	7921	8061	14770	11000	12250	3537	8561	19220	20100	5600	4606	4027	7124	10640	2810	4745	13550	2443	34940	21750	2619	7419	29810	7997	6642	9942	3832	18560	2622	20100	10900	7537	24740	29300	2782	3792	4661	7847	5814	4141	16130	8708	8237	6423	5312	2927	7015	29040	12100	5012	6292	4639	4866	4630	7822	2916	4426	12860	7342	6198	3622	9904	5269	21550	7051	11380	3920	12330	4585	20090	7562	7097	19590	4069	8129	6030	6658	26150	6339	7956	4570	24880	5396	5461	23350	6938	7278	6995	6522	14480	8531	5348	7058	16740	11620	29750	16660	23430	8701	55420	32550	4689	21130	6089	6326	46220	18260	12430	3628	2451	48620	7232	25410	2378	3161	15470	2071	3069	6438	11360	18600	4143	5718	6291	21880	7788	34230	1879	5546	7305	6067	5032	7798	2892	9472	11250	3738	5118	16740	15920	7061	28330	7679	4605	21080	8849	9157	13250	8541	13390	12460	10340	31650	8549	5441	8887	4239	10340	2382	19250	6146	5675	4798	18220	5806	5238	6229	7522	1501	1725	21110	31300	5218	4834	22790	4430	6654	38610	13790	14200	13520	5697	4558	5450	6529	14160	1578	4342	6661	4250	5285	4461	5465	7360	4889	8148	10520	13110	14120	21800	6998	7491	15920	8049	4875	5520	18770	14240	18130	4610	3451	20320	5239	15330	12860	10170	16250	4814	5299	2801	10110	9328	5037	2759	10950	5965	17210	7800	3909	949	27800	15140	5471	4669	4725	21750	23970	24030	21100	16620	6591	7578	5622	7683	4360	7797	5940	1135	8230	3986	3836	5978	13440	26360	15600	4652	7882	23270	6387	7754	23150	5647	4967	5923	9807	6291	4961	11660

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-07 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-07