COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-11

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-07	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	2021-01-03	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-04	2021-01-03	11-15	2021-01-01	12-21	10-29	12-22	2021-01-03	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	2021-01-02	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	11-02	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	2021-01-02	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	11-01	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-06	09-27	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-28	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-14	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	2021-01-06	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-01	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-03	2021-01-01	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	2021-01-01	2021-01-04	2021-01-01	2021-01-04	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	12-22	12-27	12-21	2021-01-03	12-28	12-13	2021-01-01	12-13	10-17	2021-01-01	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-27	2021-01-02	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	2021-01-02	12-28	12-22	12-27	2021-01-03	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-26	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	2021-01-03	12-30	12-23	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-22	2021-01-03	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-29	12-25	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	2021-01-03	12-21	12-30	12-30	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	96	173	109	177	178	77	476	588	191	59	326	134	110	109	232	430	1252	74	158	71	59	163	49	490	141	441	228	107	525	154	310	318	107	504	93	189	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	266	52	200	251	284	62	90	71	68	244	53	95	288	35	368	289	38	183	598	150	69	188	72	247	28	249	187	118	323	537	60	53	76	160	109	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	591	271	95	75	75	89	73	125	53	39	122	80	93	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	200	57	398	176	103	340	101	109	135	121	477	100	156	47	444	58	115	450	138	85	134	236	275	148	71	100	285	197	190	312	429	109	379	287	104	447	71	113	726	273	200	90	39	376	94	420	29	47	297	49	62	147	119	364	79	105	63	124	85	721	23	50	159	105	51	109	59	123	121	41	58	275	157	128	225	90	44	126	126	109	157	122	207	106	174	621	85	82	171	52	187	40	133	138	57	96	199	80	86	60	175	38	27	163	450	44	82	406	65	130	243	211	245	168	98	107	101	69	180	27	43	85	82	96	80	108	83	67	102	113	245	294	456	131	151	223	93	57	112	178	132	194	66	42	201	105	320	189	181	126	55	107	49	146	322	90	44	138	125	369	137	50	11	557	152	92	107	85	262	325	452	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	264	83	149	433	106	139	376	108	115	100	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	46	47	46	52	46	66	52	50	47	50	121	46	50	45	31	39	46	51	44	46	46	39	38	39	88	41	52	105	51	39	46	60	46	45	48	52	47	51	40	43	46	100	52	47	48	65	46	52	52	38	51	44	47	51	52	38	52	52	38	47	46	45	52	51	51	43	45	46	46	52	48	52	52	40	101	120	46	66	47	46	49	40	49	52	101	47	102	46	44	45	52	48	51	48	59	51	36	137	50	45	55	45	38	46	47	52	45	51	52	46	52	46	51	52	52	52	51	46	46	51	51	60	46	59	45	52	44	46	36	49	48	52	41	45	46	51	45	45	48	102	51	46	46	44	41	46	45	52	46	46	74	46	46	51	52	38	43	39	51	100	41	52	52	52	51	48	51	47	45	44	39	99	45	65	46	109	47	52	99	52	43	100	52	38	46	52	41	44	52	46	45	46	46	41	38	41	38	44	52	36	36	51	46	52	39	45	60	41	60	117	41	46	46	48	15	40	44	44	39	52	40	45	51	46	39	48	46	52	51	52	45	47	48	38	51	94	49	51	53	39	45	46	51	52	59	45	47	52	47	48	103	51	45	52	102	52	50	47	46	52	66	48	39	43	50	38	38	46	52	47	52	52	61	51	39	52	51	45	51	47	52	105	48	46	55	48	52	52	51	52	46	48	53	60	45	66	51	46	46	44	44	51	51	45	46	51	46	41	45	39	52	43	43	45
Last total	2748	4560	7953	7435	8486	9382	10835	3645	22406	28874	16098	3938	16982	7560	7021	7794	12553	21404	92406	6247	16624	8538	5358	23055	4159	23786	6606	42393	10294	5999	26819	6611	13664	28508	5605	23463	5785	8808	6315	9324	15547	12698	5201	13377	6471	9651	7888	7985	14562	10920	12137	3512	8525	18945	19822	5522	4543	3973	7071	10465	2835	4600	13258	2422	34530	21372	2578	7291	29480	7891	6556	9861	3789	18293	2559	19922	10697	7487	24396	28814	2722	3771	4577	7788	5704	4068	15978	8540	8100	6350	5196	2858	6956	28760	12018	4954	6197	4667	4764	4515	7795	2883	4324	12701	7229	6105	3509	9839	5138	21350	6956	11214	3879	12193	4547	19949	7531	7005	19344	4033	8001	5975	6583	25931	6289	7840	4468	24464	5328	5363	22985	6835	7193	6841	6536	14341	8425	5200	6843	16653	11471	29378	16475	23111	8628	54653	32161	4642	20892	5950	6320	45776	17979	12252	3610	2421	48034	7078	25182	2332	3112	15264	2012	3032	6403	11136	18395	4140	5661	6266	21712	7702	33874	1874	5463	7271	5940	4960	7700	2831	9338	11073	3693	5083	16416	15794	6904	27922	7589	4505	20877	8715	9099	13068	8488	13227	12257	10203	31360	8476	5334	8730	4201	10139	2354	19053	6088	5627	4755	18034	5712	5163	6161	7402	1392	1705	20841	30821	5173	4751	22463	4383	6588	38040	13615	13986	13342	5581	4514	5323	6436	14008	1559	4237	6479	4254	5177	4391	5379	7192	4780	8054	10397	12867	14034	21556	6918	7428	15653	7990	4832	5424	18547	14033	17933	4548	3410	19998	5198	15112	12806	10041	16121	4704	5234	2763	9905	9228	4881	2725	10843	5902	17050	7735	3831	939	27695	15049	5408	4629	4661	21482	23392	23861	20866	16455	6523	7466	5556	7627	4267	7658	5813	1123	8153	3965	3765	5891	13275	26186	15419	4591	7790	22999	6309	7637	22891	5545	4865	5764	9664	6171	4861	11541
Last daily increment	3	20	26	26	51	14	32	6	51	54	63	10	21	15	30	19	41	47	353	32	33	28	30	97	17	73	12	156	27	25	63	8	35	99	23	40	15	10	15	19	58	45	11	33	23	14	12	11	46	49	26	8	16	68	60	21	18	8	29	31	20	26	47	9	124	98	4	20	48	20	34	17	15	74	11	111	48	10	83	92	13	17	16	19	9	33	54	34	23	17	26	10	12	54	7	17	30	28	21	17	10	4	13	28	34	16	14	21	24	32	11	34	16	37	27	35	25	25	46	9	17	15	17	36	23	13	19	68	23	20	51	26	12	25	12	28	17	39	31	62	28	119	63	34	30	174	141	9	35	24	25	123	66	19	11	9	169	53	44	8	11	44	8	6	16	68	58	9	33	40	57	12	53	3	27	33	22	26	15	3	22	55	12	40	51	46	30	104	26	10	63	20	15	51	21	53	54	29	45	47	24	21	20	13	8	50	12	11	6	80	21	10	25	18	6	10	84	116	12	17	77	15	6	61	56	27	75	13	10	19	36	64	0	27	27	20	15	13	9	31	19	35	29	49	25	24	28	25	61	30	14	19	87	58	60	8	22	71	6	39	28	18	82	22	7	6	43	47	19	10	14	12	27	5	13	1	33	42	10	11	16	80	96	43	51	63	16	21	16	15	30	23	18	5	29	14	3	30	26	93	80	10	12	46	14	8	85	24	13	17	33	14	28	25
Last week	42	128	179	204	320	116	233	42	298	403	400	85	136	152	214	142	317	221	2228	161	308	181	147	651	112	543	109	982	181	171	471	55	167	654	92	264	114	88	155	111	348	353	79	154	180	77	134	78	326	287	154	68	111	410	413	156	117	74	199	150	147	199	317	51	743	522	15	177	385	131	188	100	103	443	72	494	324	67	534	599	85	79	112	96	91	131	354	264	140	93	141	54	96	315	96	75	190	81	109	216	96	55	110	254	211	93	85	96	101	253	116	213	109	242	141	236	108	134	319	60	130	101	114	271	123	113	104	461	150	109	442	217	104	105	133	168	116	210	200	374	172	678	364	334	191	1099	766	75	243	149	102	905	469	138	52	70	895	238	227	56	80	273	57	37	99	382	290	80	154	266	297	133	432	19	135	135	124	121	145	47	160	285	102	181	398	342	186	694	183	65	368	133	131	469	100	278	306	172	309	219	141	130	92	149	56	359	75	89	39	490	168	122	196	110	50	40	451	828	69	145	460	104	63	611	409	252	361	144	69	118	191	385	21	126	141	80	87	59	98	200	103	209	191	332	183	218	139	151	443	165	94	138	486	346	363	90	112	544	59	212	131	185	385	137	67	74	305	218	117	40	87	90	187	50	105	6	212	271	66	73	79	523	676	266	309	345	137	129	89	100	138	188	137	10	162	98	59	115	179	495	471	76	122	394	118	115	505	151	93	169	220	105	120	161
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-16	10-11	10-24	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-27	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	09-17	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-02	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	11-03	11-05	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	--	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-01	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	10-27	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	11-02	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-20	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	11-01	--	11-03	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		163	98	54	234		137		56					71	320					57	71	159						40			132			35	117		53			62				29		293	144	20							165			55									31					32						55						41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65									43		52				59									360	152		86	541	255					528					609	61								73					391				51									58	68			609			256				82	87	102			95	43		41			196		63			44		67				237	231	84		183			435	113						66								24	71		76							117	82			183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				136				37		31		65	41	130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	18	61		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						10			32			16	56		18			31				12		106	70	9							53			18									15					9						17						11	25	23				12			21	7	24				18									11		15				20									94	20		23	154	122					58					136	19								34					54				14									16	7			70			57				19	35	40			25	13		12			62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30	36			46	49		9		58					33	15			31								8			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18	13	16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-12 to 2021-02-18

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-11	2748	4560	7953	7435	8486	9382	10835	3645	22406	28874	16098	3938	16982	7560	7021	7794	12553	21404	92406	6247	16624	8538	5358	23055	4159	23786	6606	42393	10294	5999	26819	6611	13664	28508	5605	23463	5785	8808	6315	9324	15547	12698	5201	13377	6471	9651	7888	7985	14562	10920	12137	3512	8525	18945	19822	5522	4543	3973	7071	10465	2835	4600	13258	2422	34530	21372	2578	7291	29480	7891	6556	9861	3789	18293	2559	19922	10697	7487	24396	28814	2722	3771	4577	7788	5704	4068	15978	8540	8100	6350	5196	2858	6956	28760	12018	4954	6197	4667	4764	4515	7795	2883	4324	12701	7229	6105	3509	9839	5138	21350	6956	11214	3879	12193	4547	19949	7531	7005	19344	4033	8001	5975	6583	25931	6289	7840	4468	24464	5328	5363	22985	6835	7193	6841	6536	14341	8425	5200	6843	16653	11471	29378	16475	23111	8628	54653	32161	4642	20892	5950	6320	45776	17979	12252	3610	2421	48034	7078	25182	2332	3112	15264	2012	3032	6403	11136	18395	4140	5661	6266	21712	7702	33874	1874	5463	7271	5940	4960	7700	2831	9338	11073	3693	5083	16416	15794	6904	27922	7589	4505	20877	8715	9099	13068	8488	13227	12257	10203	31360	8476	5334	8730	4201	10139	2354	19053	6088	5627	4755	18034	5712	5163	6161	7402	1392	1705	20841	30821	5173	4751	22463	4383	6588	38040	13615	13986	13342	5581	4514	5323	6436	14008	1559	4237	6479	4254	5177	4391	5379	7192	4780	8054	10397	12867	14034	21556	6918	7428	15653	7990	4832	5424	18547	14033	17933	4548	3410	19998	5198	15112	12806	10041	16121	4704	5234	2763	9905	9228	4881	2725	10843	5902	17050	7735	3831	939	27695	15049	5408	4629	4661	21482	23392	23861	20866	16455	6523	7466	5556	7627	4267	7658	5813	1123	8153	3965	3765	5891	13275	26186	15419	4591	7790	22999	6309	7637	22891	5545	4865	5764	9664	6171	4861	11541
2021-02-12	2758	4591	8070	7487	8543	9438	10970	3649	22450	29040	16170	3971	17030	7597	7060	7811	12620	21440	93210	6277	16740	8574	5388	23190	4178	24020	6633	42640	10340	6077	27050	6619	13680	28730	5664	23510	5807	8830	6400	9408	15620	12750	5229	13420	6572	9687	7897	7999	14630	10970	12150	3525	8618	19130	19900	5541	4636	4019	7105	10510	2854	4688	13380	2432	34670	21590	2584	7306	29590	7917	6599	9900	3804	18510	2574	20030	10770	7495	24600	29040	2738	3785	4599	7795	5724	4094	16040	8636	8163	6460	5277	2869	6976	28850	12030	4978	6234	4679	4789	4576	7866	2914	4346	12770	7273	6157	3530	9849	5180	21440	6984	11260	3897	12240	4572	20150	7560	7039	19400	4048	8028	6049	6610	25950	6316	7886	4524	24550	5371	5394	23080	6899	7282	6881	6547	14370	8451	5240	6890	16710	11510	29500	16520	23140	8712	54990	32430	4648	20920	5981	6323	46260	18060	12360	3621	2443	48270	7180	25220	2343	3130	15310	2025	3044	6422	11240	18440	4167	5689	6294	21750	7768	34020	1878	5504	7292	5965	4984	7745	2887	9425	11130	3711	5106	16600	15880	6950	28060	7640	4522	20990	8822	9128	13130	8567	13350	12320	10260	31460	8510	5366	8774	4205	10160	2365	19170	6110	5640	4765	18130	5743	5184	6192	7412	1403	1720	20980	31130	5186	4791	22590	4399	6599	38120	13800	14070	13470	5697	4531	5427	6470	14070	1566	4306	6510	4260	5191	4396	5423	7233	4811	8127	10430	12970	14090	21600	6931	7460	15780	8037	4849	5450	18690	14100	17980	4589	3429	20200	5207	15160	12880	10080	16160	4731	5247	2776	9960	9281	4906	2735	10860	5907	17060	7783	3855	941	27720	15130	5463	4646	4680	21630	23750	23900	20950	16530	6548	7474	5575	7656	4296	7687	5902	1127	8230	3980	3778	5979	13340	26380	15520	4609	7825	23260	6365	7672	23060	5586	4865	5793	9710	6180	4949	11580
2021-02-13	2767	4623	8093	7511	8598	9456	11010	3652	22500	29060	16230	4002	17030	7634	7099	7817	12690	21480	93400	6307	16790	8610	5418	23280	4194	24030	6660	42760	10380	6143	27100	6627	13700	28830	5674	23560	5830	8851	6421	9423	15660	12800	5255	13460	6597	9697	7905	8012	14690	11020	12160	3538	8632	19180	19980	5561	4653	4030	7139	10550	2873	4710	13410	2442	34810	21650	2591	7323	29700	7942	6618	9940	3819	18570	2590	20090	10840	7503	24660	29100	2754	3798	4621	7802	5745	4119	16100	8661	8172	6471	5292	2880	6997	28850	12040	5002	6270	4690	4813	4597	7866	2918	4367	12800	7315	6158	3533	9859	5189	21530	7013	11300	3914	12280	4597	20220	7589	7073	19460	4064	8054	6062	6637	25970	6343	7896	4532	24630	5383	5422	23120	6915	7300	6893	6559	14390	8475	5280	6937	16770	11550	29620	16570	23160	8712	55110	32520	4657	20940	6012	6335	46460	18130	12380	3632	2443	48380	7205	25250	2354	3130	15360	2037	3057	6442	11290	18480	4191	5698	6328	21780	7784	34020	1881	5520	7313	5990	5008	7770	2892	9435	11180	3730	5127	16660	15910	6997	28190	7657	4539	21030	8843	9158	13140	8576	13390	12370	10310	31560	8545	5399	8781	4211	10180	2375	19210	6124	5654	4769	18180	5775	5205	6223	7421	1413	1727	21030	31190	5200	4803	22590	4414	6610	38120	13840	14080	13510	5710	4547	5447	6504	14120	1572	4313	6514	4266	5205	4402	5438	7274	4816	8147	10470	13010	14140	21630	6945	7492	15810	8042	4865	5476	18750	14160	18040	4603	3448	20280	5216	15200	12900	10120	16200	4758	5260	2789	10020	9333	4930	2745	10880	5913	17070	7800	3878	943	27750	15160	5476	4663	4700	21690	23850	23930	21030	16570	6574	7482	5575	7685	4324	7717	5914	1131	8256	3994	3792	5998	13340	26450	15540	4628	7861	23330	6377	7676	23090	5626	4865	5819	9760	6186	4982	11620
2021-02-14	2777	4653	8112	7531	8653	9471	11040	3656	22550	29070	16300	4034	17030	7670	7138	7822	12760	21520	93510	6336	16840	8646	5449	23360	4203	24040	6687	42890	10420	6207	27150	6635	13720	28930	5678	23610	5852	8871	6438	9434	15710	12830	5282	13500	6635	9709	7914	8026	14760	11070	12170	3551	8642	19240	20060	5581	4677	4036	7174	10590	2892	4728	13440	2451	34950	21690	2597	7339	29810	7967	6635	9970	3835	18630	2605	20160	10920	7511	24730	29140	2770	3811	4643	7810	5766	4144	16160	8694	8173	6479	5306	2891	7016	28850	12050	5024	6306	4702	4838	4622	7866	2919	4388	12840	7357	6163	3536	9869	5194	21620	7041	11350	3932	12320	4621	20280	7617	7106	19520	4079	8080	6070	6663	25990	6370	7903	4548	24710	5396	5450	23140	6930	7319	6893	6571	14410	8499	5319	6983	16810	11590	29740	16620	23190	8714	55220	32640	4665	20970	6043	6345	46630	18210	12410	3643	2444	48500	7226	25280	2365	3130	15400	2050	3069	6461	11350	18520	4216	5704	6356	21810	7802	34020	1885	5539	7335	6015	5031	7788	2899	9455	11230	3748	5149	16700	15950	7043	28320	7672	4556	21070	8849	9188	13150	8583	13430	12430	10360	31650	8579	5430	8787	4217	10210	2386	19250	6130	5667	4774	18240	5806	5225	6253	7430	1423	1733	21070	31210	5213	4818	22590	4429	6620	38120	13890	14080	13560	5731	4564	5473	6537	14170	1579	4324	6519	4272	5219	4407	5447	7314	4824	8179	10500	13060	14190	21670	6959	7523	15880	8051	4882	5502	18810	14230	18090	4611	3466	20360	5225	15240	12910	10160	16240	4785	5272	2802	10080	9385	4955	2755	10900	5919	17090	7813	3901	944	27780	15180	5482	4680	4719	21770	23910	23970	21110	16610	6599	7490	5575	7714	4351	7746	5924	1135	8279	4009	3805	6014	13340	26510	15570	4646	7896	23390	6384	7686	23100	5664	4865	5846	9810	6186	5007	11650
2021-02-15	2786	4684	8157	7562	8707	9496	11110	3659	22600	29130	16360	4065	17030	7707	7176	7856	12820	21560	93810	6365	16900	8681	5480	23480	4226	24110	6715	43070	10460	6269	27240	6643	13730	29090	5705	23660	5874	8891	6470	9457	15770	12900	5308	13540	6669	9741	7923	8039	14820	11120	12190	3564	8677	19320	20130	5601	4708	4052	7208	10630	2911	4763	13520	2461	35090	21790	2603	7356	29920	7991	6678	10010	3850	18730	2620	20240	10990	7519	24870	29250	2785	3824	4665	7817	5787	4168	16220	8747	8207	6508	5333	2901	7037	28850	12060	5047	6342	4712	4863	4668	7872	2932	4409	12890	7399	6174	3561	9879	5215	21710	7069	11390	3950	12370	4645	20360	7646	7138	19580	4094	8107	6091	6691	26010	6397	7917	4570	24800	5419	5478	23210	6965	7349	6925	6584	14430	8523	5359	7030	16870	11620	29850	16670	23220	8737	55390	32790	4674	20990	6074	6366	46840	18280	12440	3653	2453	48680	7284	25320	2376	3133	15450	2063	3081	6481	11400	18570	4240	5722	6414	21850	7831	34020	1888	5556	7355	6040	5055	7811	2906	9485	11280	3766	5170	16800	16050	7089	28450	7715	4573	21150	8879	9217	13190	8600	13490	12490	10410	31740	8613	5461	8817	4224	10230	2396	19330	6144	5680	4780	18330	5837	5246	6284	7438	1433	1744	21150	31310	5225	4845	22640	4445	6630	38160	13970	14110	13620	5760	4580	5502	6570	14230	1585	4358	6547	4277	5233	4412	5466	7354	4851	8226	10530	13110	14240	21710	6973	7555	15960	8071	4898	5529	18900	14290	18140	4634	3485	20460	5235	15290	12940	10200	16310	4811	5284	2815	10130	9438	4979	2765	10920	5926	17100	7830	3924	946	27800	15240	5491	4697	4739	21870	24040	24010	21190	16670	6624	7497	5575	7743	4379	7776	5962	1139	8309	4023	3819	6050	13370	26610	15660	4664	7931	23480	6409	7717	23170	5702	4876	5872	9860	6205	5049	11690
2021-02-16	2795	4716	8184	7620	8761	9514	11170	3662	22650	29180	16430	4096	17030	7744	7215	7884	12890	21590	94010	6395	16970	8717	5511	23600	4249	24180	6742	43200	10500	6331	27330	6650	13750	29230	5728	23700	5896	8910	6490	9468	15820	12950	5334	13590	6707	9759	7932	8052	14890	11170	12200	3576	8697	19400	20210	5622	4732	4066	7243	10670	2930	4811	13640	2471	35240	21870	2610	7372	30040	8016	6707	10040	3865	18810	2635	20320	11070	7527	25000	29340	2801	3837	4686	7824	5808	4192	16280	8803	8233	6522	5360	2911	7057	28870	12080	5070	6379	4723	4888	4708	7872	2946	4431	12930	7441	6185	3572	9888	5244	21790	7098	11440	3968	12410	4669	20450	7674	7171	19640	4110	8133	6105	6718	26030	6424	7940	4591	24880	5430	5506	23290	6979	7384	6942	6597	14450	8547	5398	7077	16940	11660	29970	16710	23240	8758	55540	32930	4683	21020	6105	6374	47060	18360	12470	3664	2465	48850	7309	25350	2387	3139	15500	2075	3094	6501	11460	18610	4264	5736	6455	21880	7857	34060	1892	5585	7376	6065	5078	7843	2912	9500	11330	3784	5191	16870	16100	7135	28580	7747	4590	21220	8894	9247	13210	8611	13560	12550	10450	31840	8646	5493	8864	4230	10250	2406	19390	6155	5693	4791	18420	5868	5266	6314	7447	1443	1751	21200	31390	5238	4871	22680	4460	6640	38210	14060	14140	13690	5781	4597	5543	6603	14310	1592	4384	6567	4283	5247	4418	5476	7395	4867	8259	10570	13180	14290	21750	6987	7587	16040	8084	4914	5556	18980	14360	18190	4651	3503	20550	5245	15330	12960	10250	16390	4838	5296	2827	10190	9490	5003	2776	10940	5932	17110	7847	3947	948	27830	15290	5509	4714	4758	21960	24160	24050	21270	16740	6649	7505	5581	7772	4406	7806	5974	1144	8328	4037	3833	6087	13380	26700	15710	4683	7967	23540	6426	7739	23220	5741	4883	5898	9910	6238	5098	11730
2021-02-17	2805	4747	8206	7651	8815	9545	11210	3665	22700	29220	16490	4128	17030	7781	7255	7907	12960	21630	94220	6424	17020	8752	5541	23690	4266	24220	6770	43380	10550	6393	27380	6658	13770	29370	5744	23750	5919	8930	6510	9481	15880	13020	5361	13630	6749	9774	7941	8065	14960	11220	12210	3589	8718	19480	20290	5642	4759	4085	7277	10710	2949	4844	13680	2481	35380	21950	2616	7389	30150	8041	6737	10070	3881	18890	2650	20390	11140	7535	25110	29400	2817	3850	4708	7832	5829	4216	16340	8840	8257	6541	5384	2922	7077	28880	12090	5093	6415	4734	4912	4752	7872	2958	4452	12970	7483	6196	3580	9898	5262	21880	7127	11480	3986	12450	4694	20520	7703	7204	19700	4125	8159	6112	6745	26050	6452	7955	4605	24960	5447	5535	23330	7002	7407	6957	6609	14480	8571	5438	7124	16990	11700	30090	16760	23270	8771	55690	33070	4692	21040	6136	6387	47220	18430	12500	3675	2468	48990	7344	25380	2398	3144	15540	2088	3106	6521	11530	18650	4287	5756	6493	21910	7882	34060	1895	5603	7397	6090	5101	7864	2923	9524	11380	3802	5212	16940	16150	7181	28710	7772	4607	21270	8923	9277	13260	8623	13620	12610	10500	31930	8680	5525	8880	4236	10270	2417	19450	6165	5706	4797	18500	5899	5287	6344	7456	1453	1755	21260	31490	5251	4890	22710	4475	6650	38230	14160	14160	13750	5809	4613	5573	6636	14370	1598	4403	6580	4288	5261	4423	5493	7436	4886	8295	10600	13240	14340	21780	7000	7619	16110	8110	4930	5583	19060	14430	18250	4666	3522	20640	5254	15380	12980	10290	16460	4865	5308	2840	10250	9543	5027	2786	10960	5939	17120	7862	3970	950	27860	15340	5524	4730	4778	22040	24260	24080	21350	16790	6674	7513	5582	7801	4434	7836	6000	1148	8358	4051	3847	6115	13390	26780	15770	4702	8003	23590	6443	7754	23260	5779	4883	5924	9960	6251	5125	11770
2021-02-18	2814	4778	8237	7678	8870	9560	11250	3668	22750	29280	16560	4159	17060	7819	7294	7922	13030	21670	94620	6453	17070	8788	5573	23790	4282	24310	6797	43530	10590	6455	27470	6666	13790	29470	5765	23800	5941	8950	6536	9512	15930	13060	5387	13670	6775	9785	7949	8078	15020	11260	12220	3602	8736	19550	20360	5662	4783	4100	7312	10750	2968	4881	13730	2491	35520	22050	2622	7405	30260	8065	6770	10110	3896	18980	2665	20490	11220	7544	25190	29510	2833	3863	4730	7839	5850	4240	16400	8882	8283	6565	5414	2932	7097	28930	12100	5116	6451	4744	4937	4779	7887	2966	4474	13010	7525	6220	3595	9908	5285	21970	7155	11530	4004	12490	4718	20550	7732	7237	19760	4141	8186	6135	6772	26070	6479	7973	4628	25050	5475	5563	23390	7041	7425	6979	6622	14500	8595	5478	7171	17050	11740	30200	16810	23300	8812	55870	33200	4701	21070	6167	6409	47380	18500	12530	3685	2479	49160	7398	25420	2409	3160	15590	2101	3119	6541	11600	18690	4311	5792	6531	21940	7902	34130	1899	5633	7418	6115	5125	7884	2934	9561	11430	3821	5234	17010	16200	7228	28840	7809	4624	21340	8952	9307	13330	8649	13680	12670	10550	32020	8714	5557	8899	4243	10290	2427	19500	6179	5719	4804	18580	5931	5308	6375	7464	1464	1764	21350	31630	5264	4908	22790	4490	6660	38300	14220	14200	13820	5833	4630	5593	6669	14430	1605	4430	6606	4293	5274	4428	5506	7476	4907	8336	10630	13290	14400	21820	7014	7651	16180	8145	4946	5609	19140	14490	18300	4678	3540	20730	5264	15420	13010	10330	16520	4892	5321	2853	10310	9595	5052	2796	10980	5946	17130	7869	3993	952	27890	15380	5539	4747	4798	22130	24380	24120	21430	16850	6699	7520	5599	7831	4461	7866	6027	1152	8388	4065	3861	6143	13430	26870	15860	4721	8039	23670	6465	7764	23360	5817	4895	5950	10010	6261	5146	11810

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-12 to 2021-02-18

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-11	2748	4560	7953	7435	8486	9382	10835	3645	22406	28874	16098	3938	16982	7560	7021	7794	12553	21404	92406	6247	16624	8538	5358	23055	4159	23786	6606	42393	10294	5999	26819	6611	13664	28508	5605	23463	5785	8808	6315	9324	15547	12698	5201	13377	6471	9651	7888	7985	14562	10920	12137	3512	8525	18945	19822	5522	4543	3973	7071	10465	2835	4600	13258	2422	34530	21372	2578	7291	29480	7891	6556	9861	3789	18293	2559	19922	10697	7487	24396	28814	2722	3771	4577	7788	5704	4068	15978	8540	8100	6350	5196	2858	6956	28760	12018	4954	6197	4667	4764	4515	7795	2883	4324	12701	7229	6105	3509	9839	5138	21350	6956	11214	3879	12193	4547	19949	7531	7005	19344	4033	8001	5975	6583	25931	6289	7840	4468	24464	5328	5363	22985	6835	7193	6841	6536	14341	8425	5200	6843	16653	11471	29378	16475	23111	8628	54653	32161	4642	20892	5950	6320	45776	17979	12252	3610	2421	48034	7078	25182	2332	3112	15264	2012	3032	6403	11136	18395	4140	5661	6266	21712	7702	33874	1874	5463	7271	5940	4960	7700	2831	9338	11073	3693	5083	16416	15794	6904	27922	7589	4505	20877	8715	9099	13068	8488	13227	12257	10203	31360	8476	5334	8730	4201	10139	2354	19053	6088	5627	4755	18034	5712	5163	6161	7402	1392	1705	20841	30821	5173	4751	22463	4383	6588	38040	13615	13986	13342	5581	4514	5323	6436	14008	1559	4237	6479	4254	5177	4391	5379	7192	4780	8054	10397	12867	14034	21556	6918	7428	15653	7990	4832	5424	18547	14033	17933	4548	3410	19998	5198	15112	12806	10041	16121	4704	5234	2763	9905	9228	4881	2725	10843	5902	17050	7735	3831	939	27695	15049	5408	4629	4661	21482	23392	23861	20866	16455	6523	7466	5556	7627	4267	7658	5813	1123	8153	3965	3765	5891	13275	26186	15419	4591	7790	22999	6309	7637	22891	5545	4865	5764	9664	6171	4861	11541
2021-02-12	2754	4577	7987	7462	8536	9403	10880	3651	22450	28950	16160	3945	16990	7581	7043	7815	12600	21440	92750	6272	16670	8562	5383	23160	4173	23860	6623	42540	10320	6029	26880	6619	13690	28610	5622	23510	5803	8824	6341	9348	15600	12750	5214	13400	6508	9660	7903	8001	14610	10960	12160	3526	8549	19020	19880	5547	4568	3989	7100	10490	2852	4636	13310	2430	34660	21460	2582	7314	29540	7912	6580	9879	3805	18370	2572	20000	10730	7497	24470	28920	2735	3785	4596	7802	5717	4088	16040	8580	8124	6370	5223	2866	6969	28820	12020	4967	6225	4681	4774	4542	7812	2895	4338	12740	7258	6119	3523	9854	5152	21390	6975	11240	3894	12220	4571	20000	7549	7028	19390	4040	8023	5992	6601	25970	6304	7856	4487	24550	5355	5383	23030	6864	7213	6863	6552	14370	8446	5235	6867	16710	11500	29480	16530	23160	8646	54830	32280	4649	20930	5965	6334	45930	18050	12270	3619	2430	48170	7121	25210	2341	3122	15310	2021	3039	6415	11190	18440	4153	5680	6303	21760	7725	33950	1877	5484	7294	5963	4980	7725	2841	9361	11110	3709	5112	16470	15850	6938	28040	7618	4516	20940	8740	9117	13140	8504	13280	12300	10220	31410	8509	5357	8750	4214	10160	2365	19110	6098	5640	4761	18100	5738	5181	6189	7417	1401	1713	20920	30970	5185	4772	22530	4397	6597	38110	13690	14020	13410	5608	4527	5354	6463	14060	1563	4261	6509	4266	5191	4402	5399	7220	4796	8084	10430	12920	14070	21590	6942	7452	15710	8018	4843	5447	18620	14070	17990	4563	3432	20090	5206	15150	12830	10070	16180	4715	5243	2772	9940	9261	4900	2732	10860	5913	17080	7743	3853	941	27750	15080	5420	4640	4674	21560	23520	23900	20910	16510	6545	7484	5569	7645	4288	7681	5838	1126	8186	3978	3776	5917	13290	26260	15490	4603	7807	23060	6327	7653	22970	5566	4873	5787	9703	6181	4886	11570
2021-02-13	2760	4598	8014	7484	8574	9419	10910	3658	22490	29000	16230	3958	17010	7602	7075	7821	12660	21460	93080	6295	16710	8587	5406	23260	4189	23920	6647	42680	10350	6054	26940	6627	13700	28690	5636	23540	5819	8838	6366	9367	15640	12800	5228	13430	6532	9663	7916	8014	14670	11000	12190	3536	8561	19070	19930	5574	4584	4003	7126	10520	2870	4665	13350	2438	34760	21540	2587	7339	29600	7931	6601	9895	3822	18420	2584	20060	10780	7509	24530	28990	2749	3795	4610	7815	5738	4104	16080	8615	8137	6378	5241	2875	6985	28860	12030	4980	6254	4687	4793	4561	7823	2902	4358	12780	7289	6130	3533	9867	5165	21440	6998	11270	3911	12260	4593	20030	7567	7047	19440	4050	8047	6005	6621	26010	6320	7873	4495	24630	5379	5397	23100	6897	7228	6875	6566	14390	8469	5273	6886	16760	11530	29580	16580	23200	8664	54980	32350	4662	20970	5986	6342	46060	18110	12300	3626	2436	48290	7153	25250	2351	3131	15360	2033	3046	6428	11250	18490	4164	5697	6333	21800	7746	34020	1880	5502	7315	5981	5000	7751	2847	9381	11160	3724	5134	16530	15880	6975	28160	7641	4533	20990	8763	9132	13190	8516	13320	12360	10250	31460	8542	5382	8757	4227	10180	2375	19160	6109	5654	4767	18150	5767	5203	6217	7433	1414	1719	20980	31070	5195	4790	22590	4411	6606	38200	13740	14050	13460	5632	4538	5377	6488	14110	1568	4277	6523	4273	5199	4411	5414	7249	4804	8102	10460	12960	14100	21610	6965	7477	15760	8039	4856	5474	18680	14130	18050	4576	3447	20180	5215	15190	12850	10110	16220	4737	5252	2778	9980	9298	4921	2741	10870	5925	17100	7751	3865	942	27780	15110	5431	4651	4687	21620	23630	23940	20950	16550	6566	7504	5581	7660	4311	7709	5854	1128	8207	3991	3788	5927	13320	26310	15540	4615	7829	23110	6341	7666	23030	5588	4880	5808	9746	6194	4903	11590
2021-02-14	2766	4618	8037	7512	8608	9432	10940	3665	22540	29050	16290	3968	17030	7623	7109	7828	12710	21490	93360	6317	16750	8617	5429	23350	4202	23980	6668	42820	10380	6080	27000	6636	13720	28770	5648	23570	5834	8852	6387	9381	15690	12850	5241	13450	6561	9667	7928	8030	14730	11030	12210	3545	8573	19130	19990	5601	4602	4016	7151	10550	2888	4692	13390	2447	34870	21610	2592	7358	29660	7951	6621	9910	3838	18480	2596	20120	10820	7521	24590	29050	2764	3805	4625	7827	5757	4122	16130	8653	8152	6384	5262	2884	7001	28900	12050	4992	6280	4693	4810	4587	7834	2907	4375	12810	7321	6143	3545	9879	5175	21480	7021	11300	3929	12290	4614	20070	7585	7068	19480	4058	8071	6017	6640	26050	6332	7888	4512	24710	5402	5408	23150	6929	7243	6886	6581	14410	8492	5311	6912	16800	11560	29660	16620	23240	8677	55130	32440	4672	21010	6012	6350	46190	18170	12320	3634	2444	48430	7183	25280	2362	3142	15400	2043	3053	6438	11310	18530	4175	5710	6356	21850	7766	34080	1882	5521	7336	5995	5019	7776	2854	9407	11200	3740	5154	16580	15920	7012	28280	7659	4548	21050	8779	9154	13230	8524	13340	12410	10270	31510	8571	5405	8769	4240	10200	2385	19200	6118	5667	4774	18210	5796	5220	6247	7449	1427	1725	21050	31140	5203	4808	22640	4425	6614	38290	13800	14080	13500	5657	4549	5402	6511	14150	1573	4295	6540	4281	5208	4420	5424	7285	4816	8125	10490	13010	14140	21640	6988	7503	15820	8059	4868	5500	18750	14180	18100	4585	3463	20270	5222	15230	12860	10140	16250	4757	5261	2786	10020	9329	4941	2749	10890	5937	17120	7757	3880	943	27800	15130	5440	4663	4699	21690	23730	23970	21000	16600	6585	7525	5593	7676	4331	7734	5866	1130	8225	4003	3798	5930	13330	26370	15590	4627	7851	23160	6354	7681	23070	5606	4890	5830	9789	6205	4918	11620
2021-02-15	2772	4647	8075	7542	8672	9451	10980	3673	22590	29120	16350	3981	17050	7649	7149	7853	12770	21520	93730	6343	16810	8650	5460	23460	4222	24080	6694	42980	10430	6115	27080	6644	13760	28890	5667	23610	5855	8867	6415	9401	15740	12910	5257	13480	6587	9680	7944	8047	14780	11080	12240	3557	8588	19210	20050	5628	4623	4030	7188	10580	2908	4727	13450	2455	35020	21700	2597	7392	29730	7972	6653	9925	3855	18560	2608	20190	10890	7533	24670	29170	2779	3816	4651	7840	5779	4145	16180	8701	8175	6405	5290	2894	7016	28950	12060	5008	6316	4698	4829	4635	7858	2921	4392	12860	7355	6156	3562	9892	5188	21530	7043	11340	3947	12330	4636	20100	7603	7094	19540	4070	8095	6037	6664	26100	6350	7905	4534	24800	5428	5432	23220	6969	7263	6902	6595	14440	8519	5349	6957	16860	11590	29790	16670	23310	8712	55320	32590	4687	21050	6040	6359	46330	18240	12340	3641	2459	48590	7229	25320	2372	3152	15450	2056	3060	6452	11370	18580	4185	5729	6412	21900	7790	34160	1885	5538	7359	6016	5042	7802	2862	9439	11260	3756	5179	16650	15980	7049	28420	7698	4563	21110	8804	9183	13320	8537	13380	12470	10290	31560	8605	5431	8794	4252	10230	2395	19280	6129	5680	4781	18300	5826	5240	6276	7468	1442	1732	21130	31280	5215	4834	22720	4439	6623	38390	13870	14120	13560	5685	4561	5429	6548	14210	1578	4323	6565	4289	5219	4430	5442	7326	4833	8167	10520	13060	14170	21670	7010	7528	15900	8085	4883	5527	18830	14240	18160	4606	3482	20370	5233	15280	12880	10180	16310	4781	5271	2804	10080	9363	4960	2758	10900	5953	17150	7765	3902	944	27840	15170	5449	4675	4717	21790	23860	24020	21060	16650	6607	7546	5606	7701	4354	7765	5898	1132	8252	4016	3810	5948	13370	26450	15680	4645	7873	23240	6382	7708	23160	5633	4904	5861	9832	6225	4940	11650
2021-02-16	2779	4681	8108	7588	8726	9470	11030	3680	22640	29180	16410	4002	17080	7671	7187	7870	12820	21550	94110	6368	16860	8688	5488	23570	4243	24190	6725	43120	10460	6144	27180	6652	13790	29010	5691	23650	5875	8881	6439	9420	15790	12960	5270	13510	6617	9690	7964	8062	14840	11120	12270	3570	8601	19290	20150	5656	4644	4044	7226	10610	2926	4773	13530	2464	35170	21790	2603	7423	29790	7994	6681	9940	3872	18650	2621	20270	10970	7545	24770	29280	2794	3827	4671	7852	5805	4167	16220	8753	8200	6426	5325	2903	7032	29000	12080	5023	6352	4704	4855	4670	7877	2933	4414	12900	7389	6173	3574	9905	5209	21570	7066	11380	3963	12380	4657	20140	7621	7116	19590	4086	8119	6056	6691	26140	6378	7930	4559	24890	5452	5451	23300	6999	7291	6916	6610	14460	8545	5387	7010	16910	11620	29900	16720	23380	8747	55510	32720	4700	21100	6076	6366	46500	18300	12370	3649	2474	48750	7260	25360	2383	3163	15500	2066	3067	6472	11430	18620	4196	5749	6450	21940	7816	34240	1888	5561	7380	6042	5068	7829	2871	9468	11320	3771	5205	16720	16020	7086	28550	7727	4580	21180	8828	9205	13390	8551	13430	12520	10330	31610	8643	5460	8825	4265	10250	2406	19340	6139	5693	4788	18380	5855	5260	6306	7493	1456	1736	21210	31420	5225	4858	22810	4454	6633	38520	13940	14160	13620	5716	4574	5458	6585	14270	1583	4352	6592	4298	5235	4443	5454	7369	4846	8196	10550	13120	14200	21690	7033	7553	15970	8109	4898	5554	18920	14310	18220	4623	3500	20480	5243	15320	12900	10230	16380	4810	5280	2817	10150	9412	4982	2766	10920	5966	17180	7773	3933	946	27870	15210	5464	4690	4735	21880	24000	24060	21120	16720	6628	7566	5626	7718	4384	7804	5915	1135	8271	4029	3823	5970	13400	26540	15740	4664	7895	23300	6403	7727	23230	5658	4914	5887	9875	6255	4968	11680
2021-02-17	2785	4712	8147	7621	8780	9492	11080	3688	22690	29250	16470	4023	17110	7695	7229	7890	12880	21580	94490	6396	16920	8726	5522	23670	4261	24280	6750	43300	10500	6175	27270	6663	13830	29130	5712	23690	5891	8897	6468	9440	15850	13010	5284	13540	6654	9698	7982	8076	14890	11170	12290	3581	8614	19380	20230	5683	4674	4059	7254	10640	2945	4813	13580	2473	35310	21890	2608	7450	29850	8016	6712	9955	3887	18730	2635	20340	11060	7557	24860	29370	2809	3837	4689	7865	5827	4192	16260	8800	8224	6443	5356	2912	7048	29040	12100	5037	6386	4710	4887	4712	7884	2954	4433	12940	7427	6190	3586	9918	5230	21620	7088	11420	3980	12430	4678	20180	7639	7141	19640	4101	8143	6079	6712	26180	6405	7955	4583	24980	5477	5472	23400	7044	7317	6930	6624	14490	8573	5426	7062	16960	11660	30040	16770	23430	8775	55740	32870	4712	21130	6110	6375	46660	18350	12410	3656	2487	48900	7307	25390	2394	3174	15550	2080	3077	6491	11490	18670	4207	5778	6481	21990	7840	34310	1891	5580	7402	6071	5094	7854	2888	9502	11370	3787	5234	16810	16090	7124	28680	7756	4600	21240	8866	9228	13470	8567	13490	12580	10370	31670	8682	5486	8848	4278	10290	2416	19420	6151	5707	4795	18480	5885	5281	6335	7514	1478	1740	21290	31580	5236	4880	22890	4469	6641	38620	14020	14210	13680	5747	4585	5486	6613	14330	1588	4380	6618	4308	5246	4455	5470	7411	4860	8225	10580	13180	14240	21720	7057	7579	16050	8138	4916	5581	19010	14380	18280	4644	3517	20580	5251	15370	12920	10270	16420	4839	5291	2826	10210	9448	5004	2775	10930	5980	17200	7787	3959	949	27900	15260	5484	4704	4749	21970	24140	24100	21190	16770	6649	7587	5639	7738	4407	7841	5952	1137	8296	4041	3836	5995	13430	26610	15820	4686	7918	23380	6430	7751	23300	5691	4925	5912	9919	6275	4984	11710
2021-02-18	2792	4747	8186	7652	8826	9511	11120	3696	22740	29310	16540	4042	17140	7716	7272	7903	12940	21610	94970	6424	16970	8763	5551	23770	4278	24420	6776	43470	10530	6205	27360	6671	13880	29230	5733	23720	5910	8912	6500	9467	15900	13070	5299	13560	6685	9703	7996	8090	14950	11220	12320	3592	8627	19480	20300	5711	4701	4073	7289	10670	2963	4858	13620	2481	35450	22000	2613	7489	29920	8038	6741	9971	3903	18830	2648	20430	11140	7569	24940	29500	2824	3849	4707	7877	5847	4215	16310	8853	8248	6468	5395	2922	7063	29090	12120	5054	6419	4716	4918	4750	7912	2968	4452	12990	7463	6211	3601	9930	5244	21660	7110	11450	3998	12470	4700	20210	7664	7165	19690	4115	8168	6106	6734	26230	6431	7979	4613	25080	5503	5491	23490	7090	7343	6946	6639	14510	8599	5465	7121	17010	11690	30160	16810	23490	8817	55950	33010	4737	21180	6143	6384	46820	18420	12460	3663	2500	49070	7357	25430	2404	3190	15600	2099	3085	6511	11560	18720	4218	5806	6511	22040	7867	34390	1894	5605	7425	6097	5115	7880	2907	9552	11420	3803	5263	16890	16130	7161	28810	7791	4617	21320	8902	9258	13540	8592	13530	12640	10390	31720	8725	5512	8869	4291	10320	2426	19480	6165	5720	4801	18560	5915	5298	6364	7530	1505	1748	21400	31740	5247	4901	22990	4484	6649	38750	14100	14270	13740	5783	4597	5515	6642	14390	1594	4411	6645	4317	5256	4466	5483	7447	4873	8271	10610	13230	14270	21750	7080	7605	16130	8174	4932	5608	19100	14460	18340	4663	3537	20700	5260	15410	12950	10310	16470	4870	5301	2837	10280	9484	5023	2784	10950	5994	17230	7797	3979	950	27920	15300	5499	4717	4765	22060	24300	24140	21270	16830	6668	7608	5655	7754	4431	7880	5991	1139	8323	4054	3848	6015	13470	26700	15910	4703	7944	23470	6461	7772	23410	5714	4938	5936	9962	6289	5001	11740

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-11 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-11