COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-11 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-11

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-11

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-2612-2712-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-112021-01-0312-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-042021-01-0311-152021-01-0112-2110-2912-222021-01-0312-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-222021-01-0212-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-212021-01-0412-2612-2712-2812-2112-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-0211-0210-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-242021-01-0212-2412-2111-0212-2611-0112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-222021-01-0609-2712-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2812-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2812-2112-2912-272021-01-0612-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2212-2712-2712-292021-01-0112-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-032021-01-0112-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-272021-01-012021-01-042021-01-012021-01-0412-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2712-212021-01-0312-2812-132021-01-0112-1310-172021-01-0112-2712-2712-252021-01-272021-01-0212-2912-292021-01-0312-212021-01-0212-2812-2212-272021-01-0312-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2612-2712-2112-0712-252021-01-0312-3012-232021-01-042021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-1212-222021-01-0312-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2912-2512-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-282021-01-0312-2112-3012-3012-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 96 173 109 177 178 77 476 588 191 59 326 134 110 109 232 430 1252 74 158 71 59 163 49 490 141 441 228 107 525 154 310 318 107 504 93 189 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 266 52 200 251 284 62 90 71 68 244 53 95 288 35 368 289 38 183 598 150 69 188 72 247 28 249 187 118 323 537 60 53 76 160 109 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 591 271 95 75 75 89 73 125 53 39 122 80 93 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 200 57 398 176 103 340 101 109 135 121 477 100 156 47 444 58 115 450 138 85 134 236 275 148 71 100 285 197 190 312 429 109 379 287 104 447 71 113 726 273 200 90 39 376 94 420 29 47 297 49 62 147 119 364 79 105 63 124 85 721 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 123 121 41 58 275 157 128 225 90 44 126 126 109 157 122 207 106 174 621 85 82 171 52 187 40 133 138 57 96 199 80 86 60 175 38 27 163 450 44 82 406 65 130 243 211 245 168 98 107 101 69 180 27 43 85 82 96 80 108 83 67 102 113 245 294 456 131 151 223 93 57 112 178 132 194 66 42 201 105 320 189 181 126 55 107 49 146 322 90 44 138 125 369 137 50 11 557 152 92 107 85 262 325 452 387 228 77 139 117 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 264 83 149 433 106 139 376 108 115 100 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 46 47 46 52 46 66 52 50 47 50 121 46 50 45 31 39 46 51 44 46 46 39 38 39 88 41 52 105 51 39 46 60 46 45 48 52 47 51 40 43 46 100 52 47 48 65 46 52 52 38 51 44 47 51 52 38 52 52 38 47 46 45 52 51 51 43 45 46 46 52 48 52 52 40 101 120 46 66 47 46 49 40 49 52 101 47 102 46 44 45 52 48 51 48 59 51 36 137 50 45 55 45 38 46 47 52 45 51 52 46 52 46 51 52 52 52 51 46 46 51 51 60 46 59 45 52 44 46 36 49 48 52 41 45 46 51 45 45 48 102 51 46 46 44 41 46 45 52 46 46 74 46 46 51 52 38 43 39 51 100 41 52 52 52 51 48 51 47 45 44 39 99 45 65 46 109 47 52 99 52 43 100 52 38 46 52 41 44 52 46 45 46 46 41 38 41 38 44 52 36 36 51 46 52 39 45 60 41 60 117 41 46 46 48 15 40 44 44 39 52 40 45 51 46 39 48 46 52 51 52 45 47 48 38 51 94 49 51 53 39 45 46 51 52 59 45 47 52 47 48 103 51 45 52 102 52 50 47 46 52 66 48 39 43 50 38 38 46 52 47 52 52 61 51 39 52 51 45 51 47 52 105 48 46 55 48 52 52 51 52 46 48 53 60 45 66 51 46 46 44 44 51 51 45 46 51 46 41 45 39 52 43 43 45
Last total 2748 4560 7953 7435 8486 9382 10835 3645 22406 28874 16098 3938 16982 7560 7021 7794 12553 21404 92406 6247 16624 8538 5358 23055 4159 23786 6606 42393 10294 5999 26819 6611 13664 28508 5605 23463 5785 8808 6315 9324 15547 12698 5201 13377 6471 9651 7888 7985 14562 10920 12137 3512 8525 18945 19822 5522 4543 3973 7071 10465 2835 4600 13258 2422 34530 21372 2578 7291 29480 7891 6556 9861 3789 18293 2559 19922 10697 7487 24396 28814 2722 3771 4577 7788 5704 4068 15978 8540 8100 6350 5196 2858 6956 28760 12018 4954 6197 4667 4764 4515 7795 2883 4324 12701 7229 6105 3509 9839 5138 21350 6956 11214 3879 12193 4547 19949 7531 7005 19344 4033 8001 5975 6583 25931 6289 7840 4468 24464 5328 5363 22985 6835 7193 6841 6536 14341 8425 5200 6843 16653 11471 29378 16475 23111 8628 54653 32161 4642 20892 5950 6320 45776 17979 12252 3610 2421 48034 7078 25182 2332 3112 15264 2012 3032 6403 11136 18395 4140 5661 6266 21712 7702 33874 1874 5463 7271 5940 4960 7700 2831 9338 11073 3693 5083 16416 15794 6904 27922 7589 4505 20877 8715 9099 13068 8488 13227 12257 10203 31360 8476 5334 8730 4201 10139 2354 19053 6088 5627 4755 18034 5712 5163 6161 7402 1392 1705 20841 30821 5173 4751 22463 4383 6588 38040 13615 13986 13342 5581 4514 5323 6436 14008 1559 4237 6479 4254 5177 4391 5379 7192 4780 8054 10397 12867 14034 21556 6918 7428 15653 7990 4832 5424 18547 14033 17933 4548 3410 19998 5198 15112 12806 10041 16121 4704 5234 2763 9905 9228 4881 2725 10843 5902 17050 7735 3831 939 27695 15049 5408 4629 4661 21482 23392 23861 20866 16455 6523 7466 5556 7627 4267 7658 5813 1123 8153 3965 3765 5891 13275 26186 15419 4591 7790 22999 6309 7637 22891 5545 4865 5764 9664 6171 4861 11541
Last daily increment 3 20 26 26 51 14 32 6 51 54 63 10 21 15 30 19 41 47 353 32 33 28 30 97 17 73 12 156 27 25 63 8 35 99 23 40 15 10 15 19 58 45 11 33 23 14 12 11 46 49 26 8 16 68 60 21 18 8 29 31 20 26 47 9 124 98 4 20 48 20 34 17 15 74 11 111 48 10 83 92 13 17 16 19 9 33 54 34 23 17 26 10 12 54 7 17 30 28 21 17 10 4 13 28 34 16 14 21 24 32 11 34 16 37 27 35 25 25 46 9 17 15 17 36 23 13 19 68 23 20 51 26 12 25 12 28 17 39 31 62 28 119 63 34 30 174 141 9 35 24 25 123 66 19 11 9 169 53 44 8 11 44 8 6 16 68 58 9 33 40 57 12 53 3 27 33 22 26 15 3 22 55 12 40 51 46 30 104 26 10 63 20 15 51 21 53 54 29 45 47 24 21 20 13 8 50 12 11 6 80 21 10 25 18 6 10 84 116 12 17 77 15 6 61 56 27 75 13 10 19 36 64 0 27 27 20 15 13 9 31 19 35 29 49 25 24 28 25 61 30 14 19 87 58 60 8 22 71 6 39 28 18 82 22 7 6 43 47 19 10 14 12 27 5 13 1 33 42 10 11 16 80 96 43 51 63 16 21 16 15 30 23 18 5 29 14 3 30 26 93 80 10 12 46 14 8 85 24 13 17 33 14 28 25
Last week 42 128 179 204 320 116 233 42 298 403 400 85 136 152 214 142 317 221 2228 161 308 181 147 651 112 543 109 982 181 171 471 55 167 654 92 264 114 88 155 111 348 353 79 154 180 77 134 78 326 287 154 68 111 410 413 156 117 74 199 150 147 199 317 51 743 522 15 177 385 131 188 100 103 443 72 494 324 67 534 599 85 79 112 96 91 131 354 264 140 93 141 54 96 315 96 75 190 81 109 216 96 55 110 254 211 93 85 96 101 253 116 213 109 242 141 236 108 134 319 60 130 101 114 271 123 113 104 461 150 109 442 217 104 105 133 168 116 210 200 374 172 678 364 334 191 1099 766 75 243 149 102 905 469 138 52 70 895 238 227 56 80 273 57 37 99 382 290 80 154 266 297 133 432 19 135 135 124 121 145 47 160 285 102 181 398 342 186 694 183 65 368 133 131 469 100 278 306 172 309 219 141 130 92 149 56 359 75 89 39 490 168 122 196 110 50 40 451 828 69 145 460 104 63 611 409 252 361 144 69 118 191 385 21 126 141 80 87 59 98 200 103 209 191 332 183 218 139 151 443 165 94 138 486 346 363 90 112 544 59 212 131 185 385 137 67 74 305 218 117 40 87 90 187 50 105 6 212 271 66 73 79 523 676 266 309 345 137 129 89 100 138 188 137 10 162 98 59 115 179 495 471 76 122 394 118 115 505 151 93 169 220 105 120 161
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1610-1110-2410-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1211-01 -- -- -- --10-0409-2710-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --09-17 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-02 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-0311-0510-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-13 -- --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-0910-27 -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1811-02 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --11-01 --11-03 --10-1111-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 163 98 54 234 137 56 71 320 57 71 159 40 132 35 117 53 62 29 293 144 20 165 55 31 32 55 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 360 152 86 541 255 528 609 61 73 391 51 58 68 609 256 82 87 102 95 43 41 196 63 44 67 237 231 84 183 435 113 66 24 71 76 117 82 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 136 37 31 65 41 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 18 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 10 32 16 56 18 31 12 106 70 9 53 18 15 9 17 11 25 23 12 21 7 24 18 11 15 20 94 20 23 154 122 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 19 35 40 25 13 12 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 36 46 49 9 58 33 15 31 8 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-12 to 2021-02-18

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-11 2748 4560 7953 7435 8486 9382 10835 3645 22406 28874 16098 3938 16982 7560 7021 7794 12553 21404 92406 6247 16624 8538 5358 23055 4159 23786 6606 42393 10294 5999 26819 6611 13664 28508 5605 23463 5785 8808 6315 9324 15547 12698 5201 13377 6471 9651 7888 7985 14562 10920 12137 3512 8525 18945 19822 5522 4543 3973 7071 10465 2835 4600 13258 2422 34530 21372 2578 7291 29480 7891 6556 9861 3789 18293 2559 19922 10697 7487 24396 28814 2722 3771 4577 7788 5704 4068 15978 8540 8100 6350 5196 2858 6956 28760 12018 4954 6197 4667 4764 4515 7795 2883 4324 12701 7229 6105 3509 9839 5138 21350 6956 11214 3879 12193 4547 19949 7531 7005 19344 4033 8001 5975 6583 25931 6289 7840 4468 24464 5328 5363 22985 6835 7193 6841 6536 14341 8425 5200 6843 16653 11471 29378 16475 23111 8628 54653 32161 4642 20892 5950 6320 45776 17979 12252 3610 2421 48034 7078 25182 2332 3112 15264 2012 3032 6403 11136 18395 4140 5661 6266 21712 7702 33874 1874 5463 7271 5940 4960 7700 2831 9338 11073 3693 5083 16416 15794 6904 27922 7589 4505 20877 8715 9099 13068 8488 13227 12257 10203 31360 8476 5334 8730 4201 10139 2354 19053 6088 5627 4755 18034 5712 5163 6161 7402 1392 1705 20841 30821 5173 4751 22463 4383 6588 38040 13615 13986 13342 5581 4514 5323 6436 14008 1559 4237 6479 4254 5177 4391 5379 7192 4780 8054 10397 12867 14034 21556 6918 7428 15653 7990 4832 5424 18547 14033 17933 4548 3410 19998 5198 15112 12806 10041 16121 4704 5234 2763 9905 9228 4881 2725 10843 5902 17050 7735 3831 939 27695 15049 5408 4629 4661 21482 23392 23861 20866 16455 6523 7466 5556 7627 4267 7658 5813 1123 8153 3965 3765 5891 13275 26186 15419 4591 7790 22999 6309 7637 22891 5545 4865 5764 9664 6171 4861 11541
2021-02-12 2758 4591 8070 7487 8543 9438 10970 3649 22450 29040 16170 3971 17030 7597 7060 7811 12620 21440 93210 6277 16740 8574 5388 23190 4178 24020 6633 42640 10340 6077 27050 6619 13680 28730 5664 23510 5807 8830 6400 9408 15620 12750 5229 13420 6572 9687 7897 7999 14630 10970 12150 3525 8618 19130 19900 5541 4636 4019 7105 10510 2854 4688 13380 2432 34670 21590 2584 7306 29590 7917 6599 9900 3804 18510 2574 20030 10770 7495 24600 29040 2738 3785 4599 7795 5724 4094 16040 8636 8163 6460 5277 2869 6976 28850 12030 4978 6234 4679 4789 4576 7866 2914 4346 12770 7273 6157 3530 9849 5180 21440 6984 11260 3897 12240 4572 20150 7560 7039 19400 4048 8028 6049 6610 25950 6316 7886 4524 24550 5371 5394 23080 6899 7282 6881 6547 14370 8451 5240 6890 16710 11510 29500 16520 23140 8712 54990 32430 4648 20920 5981 6323 46260 18060 12360 3621 2443 48270 7180 25220 2343 3130 15310 2025 3044 6422 11240 18440 4167 5689 6294 21750 7768 34020 1878 5504 7292 5965 4984 7745 2887 9425 11130 3711 5106 16600 15880 6950 28060 7640 4522 20990 8822 9128 13130 8567 13350 12320 10260 31460 8510 5366 8774 4205 10160 2365 19170 6110 5640 4765 18130 5743 5184 6192 7412 1403 1720 20980 31130 5186 4791 22590 4399 6599 38120 13800 14070 13470 5697 4531 5427 6470 14070 1566 4306 6510 4260 5191 4396 5423 7233 4811 8127 10430 12970 14090 21600 6931 7460 15780 8037 4849 5450 18690 14100 17980 4589 3429 20200 5207 15160 12880 10080 16160 4731 5247 2776 9960 9281 4906 2735 10860 5907 17060 7783 3855 941 27720 15130 5463 4646 4680 21630 23750 23900 20950 16530 6548 7474 5575 7656 4296 7687 5902 1127 8230 3980 3778 5979 13340 26380 15520 4609 7825 23260 6365 7672 23060 5586 4865 5793 9710 6180 4949 11580
2021-02-13 2767 4623 8093 7511 8598 9456 11010 3652 22500 29060 16230 4002 17030 7634 7099 7817 12690 21480 93400 6307 16790 8610 5418 23280 4194 24030 6660 42760 10380 6143 27100 6627 13700 28830 5674 23560 5830 8851 6421 9423 15660 12800 5255 13460 6597 9697 7905 8012 14690 11020 12160 3538 8632 19180 19980 5561 4653 4030 7139 10550 2873 4710 13410 2442 34810 21650 2591 7323 29700 7942 6618 9940 3819 18570 2590 20090 10840 7503 24660 29100 2754 3798 4621 7802 5745 4119 16100 8661 8172 6471 5292 2880 6997 28850 12040 5002 6270 4690 4813 4597 7866 2918 4367 12800 7315 6158 3533 9859 5189 21530 7013 11300 3914 12280 4597 20220 7589 7073 19460 4064 8054 6062 6637 25970 6343 7896 4532 24630 5383 5422 23120 6915 7300 6893 6559 14390 8475 5280 6937 16770 11550 29620 16570 23160 8712 55110 32520 4657 20940 6012 6335 46460 18130 12380 3632 2443 48380 7205 25250 2354 3130 15360 2037 3057 6442 11290 18480 4191 5698 6328 21780 7784 34020 1881 5520 7313 5990 5008 7770 2892 9435 11180 3730 5127 16660 15910 6997 28190 7657 4539 21030 8843 9158 13140 8576 13390 12370 10310 31560 8545 5399 8781 4211 10180 2375 19210 6124 5654 4769 18180 5775 5205 6223 7421 1413 1727 21030 31190 5200 4803 22590 4414 6610 38120 13840 14080 13510 5710 4547 5447 6504 14120 1572 4313 6514 4266 5205 4402 5438 7274 4816 8147 10470 13010 14140 21630 6945 7492 15810 8042 4865 5476 18750 14160 18040 4603 3448 20280 5216 15200 12900 10120 16200 4758 5260 2789 10020 9333 4930 2745 10880 5913 17070 7800 3878 943 27750 15160 5476 4663 4700 21690 23850 23930 21030 16570 6574 7482 5575 7685 4324 7717 5914 1131 8256 3994 3792 5998 13340 26450 15540 4628 7861 23330 6377 7676 23090 5626 4865 5819 9760 6186 4982 11620
2021-02-14 2777 4653 8112 7531 8653 9471 11040 3656 22550 29070 16300 4034 17030 7670 7138 7822 12760 21520 93510 6336 16840 8646 5449 23360 4203 24040 6687 42890 10420 6207 27150 6635 13720 28930 5678 23610 5852 8871 6438 9434 15710 12830 5282 13500 6635 9709 7914 8026 14760 11070 12170 3551 8642 19240 20060 5581 4677 4036 7174 10590 2892 4728 13440 2451 34950 21690 2597 7339 29810 7967 6635 9970 3835 18630 2605 20160 10920 7511 24730 29140 2770 3811 4643 7810 5766 4144 16160 8694 8173 6479 5306 2891 7016 28850 12050 5024 6306 4702 4838 4622 7866 2919 4388 12840 7357 6163 3536 9869 5194 21620 7041 11350 3932 12320 4621 20280 7617 7106 19520 4079 8080 6070 6663 25990 6370 7903 4548 24710 5396 5450 23140 6930 7319 6893 6571 14410 8499 5319 6983 16810 11590 29740 16620 23190 8714 55220 32640 4665 20970 6043 6345 46630 18210 12410 3643 2444 48500 7226 25280 2365 3130 15400 2050 3069 6461 11350 18520 4216 5704 6356 21810 7802 34020 1885 5539 7335 6015 5031 7788 2899 9455 11230 3748 5149 16700 15950 7043 28320 7672 4556 21070 8849 9188 13150 8583 13430 12430 10360 31650 8579 5430 8787 4217 10210 2386 19250 6130 5667 4774 18240 5806 5225 6253 7430 1423 1733 21070 31210 5213 4818 22590 4429 6620 38120 13890 14080 13560 5731 4564 5473 6537 14170 1579 4324 6519 4272 5219 4407 5447 7314 4824 8179 10500 13060 14190 21670 6959 7523 15880 8051 4882 5502 18810 14230 18090 4611 3466 20360 5225 15240 12910 10160 16240 4785 5272 2802 10080 9385 4955 2755 10900 5919 17090 7813 3901 944 27780 15180 5482 4680 4719 21770 23910 23970 21110 16610 6599 7490 5575 7714 4351 7746 5924 1135 8279 4009 3805 6014 13340 26510 15570 4646 7896 23390 6384 7686 23100 5664 4865 5846 9810 6186 5007 11650
2021-02-15 2786 4684 8157 7562 8707 9496 11110 3659 22600 29130 16360 4065 17030 7707 7176 7856 12820 21560 93810 6365 16900 8681 5480 23480 4226 24110 6715 43070 10460 6269 27240 6643 13730 29090 5705 23660 5874 8891 6470 9457 15770 12900 5308 13540 6669 9741 7923 8039 14820 11120 12190 3564 8677 19320 20130 5601 4708 4052 7208 10630 2911 4763 13520 2461 35090 21790 2603 7356 29920 7991 6678 10010 3850 18730 2620 20240 10990 7519 24870 29250 2785 3824 4665 7817 5787 4168 16220 8747 8207 6508 5333 2901 7037 28850 12060 5047 6342 4712 4863 4668 7872 2932 4409 12890 7399 6174 3561 9879 5215 21710 7069 11390 3950 12370 4645 20360 7646 7138 19580 4094 8107 6091 6691 26010 6397 7917 4570 24800 5419 5478 23210 6965 7349 6925 6584 14430 8523 5359 7030 16870 11620 29850 16670 23220 8737 55390 32790 4674 20990 6074 6366 46840 18280 12440 3653 2453 48680 7284 25320 2376 3133 15450 2063 3081 6481 11400 18570 4240 5722 6414 21850 7831 34020 1888 5556 7355 6040 5055 7811 2906 9485 11280 3766 5170 16800 16050 7089 28450 7715 4573 21150 8879 9217 13190 8600 13490 12490 10410 31740 8613 5461 8817 4224 10230 2396 19330 6144 5680 4780 18330 5837 5246 6284 7438 1433 1744 21150 31310 5225 4845 22640 4445 6630 38160 13970 14110 13620 5760 4580 5502 6570 14230 1585 4358 6547 4277 5233 4412 5466 7354 4851 8226 10530 13110 14240 21710 6973 7555 15960 8071 4898 5529 18900 14290 18140 4634 3485 20460 5235 15290 12940 10200 16310 4811 5284 2815 10130 9438 4979 2765 10920 5926 17100 7830 3924 946 27800 15240 5491 4697 4739 21870 24040 24010 21190 16670 6624 7497 5575 7743 4379 7776 5962 1139 8309 4023 3819 6050 13370 26610 15660 4664 7931 23480 6409 7717 23170 5702 4876 5872 9860 6205 5049 11690
2021-02-16 2795 4716 8184 7620 8761 9514 11170 3662 22650 29180 16430 4096 17030 7744 7215 7884 12890 21590 94010 6395 16970 8717 5511 23600 4249 24180 6742 43200 10500 6331 27330 6650 13750 29230 5728 23700 5896 8910 6490 9468 15820 12950 5334 13590 6707 9759 7932 8052 14890 11170 12200 3576 8697 19400 20210 5622 4732 4066 7243 10670 2930 4811 13640 2471 35240 21870 2610 7372 30040 8016 6707 10040 3865 18810 2635 20320 11070 7527 25000 29340 2801 3837 4686 7824 5808 4192 16280 8803 8233 6522 5360 2911 7057 28870 12080 5070 6379 4723 4888 4708 7872 2946 4431 12930 7441 6185 3572 9888 5244 21790 7098 11440 3968 12410 4669 20450 7674 7171 19640 4110 8133 6105 6718 26030 6424 7940 4591 24880 5430 5506 23290 6979 7384 6942 6597 14450 8547 5398 7077 16940 11660 29970 16710 23240 8758 55540 32930 4683 21020 6105 6374 47060 18360 12470 3664 2465 48850 7309 25350 2387 3139 15500 2075 3094 6501 11460 18610 4264 5736 6455 21880 7857 34060 1892 5585 7376 6065 5078 7843 2912 9500 11330 3784 5191 16870 16100 7135 28580 7747 4590 21220 8894 9247 13210 8611 13560 12550 10450 31840 8646 5493 8864 4230 10250 2406 19390 6155 5693 4791 18420 5868 5266 6314 7447 1443 1751 21200 31390 5238 4871 22680 4460 6640 38210 14060 14140 13690 5781 4597 5543 6603 14310 1592 4384 6567 4283 5247 4418 5476 7395 4867 8259 10570 13180 14290 21750 6987 7587 16040 8084 4914 5556 18980 14360 18190 4651 3503 20550 5245 15330 12960 10250 16390 4838 5296 2827 10190 9490 5003 2776 10940 5932 17110 7847 3947 948 27830 15290 5509 4714 4758 21960 24160 24050 21270 16740 6649 7505 5581 7772 4406 7806 5974 1144 8328 4037 3833 6087 13380 26700 15710 4683 7967 23540 6426 7739 23220 5741 4883 5898 9910 6238 5098 11730
2021-02-17 2805 4747 8206 7651 8815 9545 11210 3665 22700 29220 16490 4128 17030 7781 7255 7907 12960 21630 94220 6424 17020 8752 5541 23690 4266 24220 6770 43380 10550 6393 27380 6658 13770 29370 5744 23750 5919 8930 6510 9481 15880 13020 5361 13630 6749 9774 7941 8065 14960 11220 12210 3589 8718 19480 20290 5642 4759 4085 7277 10710 2949 4844 13680 2481 35380 21950 2616 7389 30150 8041 6737 10070 3881 18890 2650 20390 11140 7535 25110 29400 2817 3850 4708 7832 5829 4216 16340 8840 8257 6541 5384 2922 7077 28880 12090 5093 6415 4734 4912 4752 7872 2958 4452 12970 7483 6196 3580 9898 5262 21880 7127 11480 3986 12450 4694 20520 7703 7204 19700 4125 8159 6112 6745 26050 6452 7955 4605 24960 5447 5535 23330 7002 7407 6957 6609 14480 8571 5438 7124 16990 11700 30090 16760 23270 8771 55690 33070 4692 21040 6136 6387 47220 18430 12500 3675 2468 48990 7344 25380 2398 3144 15540 2088 3106 6521 11530 18650 4287 5756 6493 21910 7882 34060 1895 5603 7397 6090 5101 7864 2923 9524 11380 3802 5212 16940 16150 7181 28710 7772 4607 21270 8923 9277 13260 8623 13620 12610 10500 31930 8680 5525 8880 4236 10270 2417 19450 6165 5706 4797 18500 5899 5287 6344 7456 1453 1755 21260 31490 5251 4890 22710 4475 6650 38230 14160 14160 13750 5809 4613 5573 6636 14370 1598 4403 6580 4288 5261 4423 5493 7436 4886 8295 10600 13240 14340 21780 7000 7619 16110 8110 4930 5583 19060 14430 18250 4666 3522 20640 5254 15380 12980 10290 16460 4865 5308 2840 10250 9543 5027 2786 10960 5939 17120 7862 3970 950 27860 15340 5524 4730 4778 22040 24260 24080 21350 16790 6674 7513 5582 7801 4434 7836 6000 1148 8358 4051 3847 6115 13390 26780 15770 4702 8003 23590 6443 7754 23260 5779 4883 5924 9960 6251 5125 11770
2021-02-18 2814 4778 8237 7678 8870 9560 11250 3668 22750 29280 16560 4159 17060 7819 7294 7922 13030 21670 94620 6453 17070 8788 5573 23790 4282 24310 6797 43530 10590 6455 27470 6666 13790 29470 5765 23800 5941 8950 6536 9512 15930 13060 5387 13670 6775 9785 7949 8078 15020 11260 12220 3602 8736 19550 20360 5662 4783 4100 7312 10750 2968 4881 13730 2491 35520 22050 2622 7405 30260 8065 6770 10110 3896 18980 2665 20490 11220 7544 25190 29510 2833 3863 4730 7839 5850 4240 16400 8882 8283 6565 5414 2932 7097 28930 12100 5116 6451 4744 4937 4779 7887 2966 4474 13010 7525 6220 3595 9908 5285 21970 7155 11530 4004 12490 4718 20550 7732 7237 19760 4141 8186 6135 6772 26070 6479 7973 4628 25050 5475 5563 23390 7041 7425 6979 6622 14500 8595 5478 7171 17050 11740 30200 16810 23300 8812 55870 33200 4701 21070 6167 6409 47380 18500 12530 3685 2479 49160 7398 25420 2409 3160 15590 2101 3119 6541 11600 18690 4311 5792 6531 21940 7902 34130 1899 5633 7418 6115 5125 7884 2934 9561 11430 3821 5234 17010 16200 7228 28840 7809 4624 21340 8952 9307 13330 8649 13680 12670 10550 32020 8714 5557 8899 4243 10290 2427 19500 6179 5719 4804 18580 5931 5308 6375 7464 1464 1764 21350 31630 5264 4908 22790 4490 6660 38300 14220 14200 13820 5833 4630 5593 6669 14430 1605 4430 6606 4293 5274 4428 5506 7476 4907 8336 10630 13290 14400 21820 7014 7651 16180 8145 4946 5609 19140 14490 18300 4678 3540 20730 5264 15420 13010 10330 16520 4892 5321 2853 10310 9595 5052 2796 10980 5946 17130 7869 3993 952 27890 15380 5539 4747 4798 22130 24380 24120 21430 16850 6699 7520 5599 7831 4461 7866 6027 1152 8388 4065 3861 6143 13430 26870 15860 4721 8039 23670 6465 7764 23360 5817 4895 5950 10010 6261 5146 11810

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-12 to 2021-02-18

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-11 2748 4560 7953 7435 8486 9382 10835 3645 22406 28874 16098 3938 16982 7560 7021 7794 12553 21404 92406 6247 16624 8538 5358 23055 4159 23786 6606 42393 10294 5999 26819 6611 13664 28508 5605 23463 5785 8808 6315 9324 15547 12698 5201 13377 6471 9651 7888 7985 14562 10920 12137 3512 8525 18945 19822 5522 4543 3973 7071 10465 2835 4600 13258 2422 34530 21372 2578 7291 29480 7891 6556 9861 3789 18293 2559 19922 10697 7487 24396 28814 2722 3771 4577 7788 5704 4068 15978 8540 8100 6350 5196 2858 6956 28760 12018 4954 6197 4667 4764 4515 7795 2883 4324 12701 7229 6105 3509 9839 5138 21350 6956 11214 3879 12193 4547 19949 7531 7005 19344 4033 8001 5975 6583 25931 6289 7840 4468 24464 5328 5363 22985 6835 7193 6841 6536 14341 8425 5200 6843 16653 11471 29378 16475 23111 8628 54653 32161 4642 20892 5950 6320 45776 17979 12252 3610 2421 48034 7078 25182 2332 3112 15264 2012 3032 6403 11136 18395 4140 5661 6266 21712 7702 33874 1874 5463 7271 5940 4960 7700 2831 9338 11073 3693 5083 16416 15794 6904 27922 7589 4505 20877 8715 9099 13068 8488 13227 12257 10203 31360 8476 5334 8730 4201 10139 2354 19053 6088 5627 4755 18034 5712 5163 6161 7402 1392 1705 20841 30821 5173 4751 22463 4383 6588 38040 13615 13986 13342 5581 4514 5323 6436 14008 1559 4237 6479 4254 5177 4391 5379 7192 4780 8054 10397 12867 14034 21556 6918 7428 15653 7990 4832 5424 18547 14033 17933 4548 3410 19998 5198 15112 12806 10041 16121 4704 5234 2763 9905 9228 4881 2725 10843 5902 17050 7735 3831 939 27695 15049 5408 4629 4661 21482 23392 23861 20866 16455 6523 7466 5556 7627 4267 7658 5813 1123 8153 3965 3765 5891 13275 26186 15419 4591 7790 22999 6309 7637 22891 5545 4865 5764 9664 6171 4861 11541
2021-02-12 2754 4577 7987 7462 8536 9403 10880 3651 22450 28950 16160 3945 16990 7581 7043 7815 12600 21440 92750 6272 16670 8562 5383 23160 4173 23860 6623 42540 10320 6029 26880 6619 13690 28610 5622 23510 5803 8824 6341 9348 15600 12750 5214 13400 6508 9660 7903 8001 14610 10960 12160 3526 8549 19020 19880 5547 4568 3989 7100 10490 2852 4636 13310 2430 34660 21460 2582 7314 29540 7912 6580 9879 3805 18370 2572 20000 10730 7497 24470 28920 2735 3785 4596 7802 5717 4088 16040 8580 8124 6370 5223 2866 6969 28820 12020 4967 6225 4681 4774 4542 7812 2895 4338 12740 7258 6119 3523 9854 5152 21390 6975 11240 3894 12220 4571 20000 7549 7028 19390 4040 8023 5992 6601 25970 6304 7856 4487 24550 5355 5383 23030 6864 7213 6863 6552 14370 8446 5235 6867 16710 11500 29480 16530 23160 8646 54830 32280 4649 20930 5965 6334 45930 18050 12270 3619 2430 48170 7121 25210 2341 3122 15310 2021 3039 6415 11190 18440 4153 5680 6303 21760 7725 33950 1877 5484 7294 5963 4980 7725 2841 9361 11110 3709 5112 16470 15850 6938 28040 7618 4516 20940 8740 9117 13140 8504 13280 12300 10220 31410 8509 5357 8750 4214 10160 2365 19110 6098 5640 4761 18100 5738 5181 6189 7417 1401 1713 20920 30970 5185 4772 22530 4397 6597 38110 13690 14020 13410 5608 4527 5354 6463 14060 1563 4261 6509 4266 5191 4402 5399 7220 4796 8084 10430 12920 14070 21590 6942 7452 15710 8018 4843 5447 18620 14070 17990 4563 3432 20090 5206 15150 12830 10070 16180 4715 5243 2772 9940 9261 4900 2732 10860 5913 17080 7743 3853 941 27750 15080 5420 4640 4674 21560 23520 23900 20910 16510 6545 7484 5569 7645 4288 7681 5838 1126 8186 3978 3776 5917 13290 26260 15490 4603 7807 23060 6327 7653 22970 5566 4873 5787 9703 6181 4886 11570
2021-02-13 2760 4598 8014 7484 8574 9419 10910 3658 22490 29000 16230 3958 17010 7602 7075 7821 12660 21460 93080 6295 16710 8587 5406 23260 4189 23920 6647 42680 10350 6054 26940 6627 13700 28690 5636 23540 5819 8838 6366 9367 15640 12800 5228 13430 6532 9663 7916 8014 14670 11000 12190 3536 8561 19070 19930 5574 4584 4003 7126 10520 2870 4665 13350 2438 34760 21540 2587 7339 29600 7931 6601 9895 3822 18420 2584 20060 10780 7509 24530 28990 2749 3795 4610 7815 5738 4104 16080 8615 8137 6378 5241 2875 6985 28860 12030 4980 6254 4687 4793 4561 7823 2902 4358 12780 7289 6130 3533 9867 5165 21440 6998 11270 3911 12260 4593 20030 7567 7047 19440 4050 8047 6005 6621 26010 6320 7873 4495 24630 5379 5397 23100 6897 7228 6875 6566 14390 8469 5273 6886 16760 11530 29580 16580 23200 8664 54980 32350 4662 20970 5986 6342 46060 18110 12300 3626 2436 48290 7153 25250 2351 3131 15360 2033 3046 6428 11250 18490 4164 5697 6333 21800 7746 34020 1880 5502 7315 5981 5000 7751 2847 9381 11160 3724 5134 16530 15880 6975 28160 7641 4533 20990 8763 9132 13190 8516 13320 12360 10250 31460 8542 5382 8757 4227 10180 2375 19160 6109 5654 4767 18150 5767 5203 6217 7433 1414 1719 20980 31070 5195 4790 22590 4411 6606 38200 13740 14050 13460 5632 4538 5377 6488 14110 1568 4277 6523 4273 5199 4411 5414 7249 4804 8102 10460 12960 14100 21610 6965 7477 15760 8039 4856 5474 18680 14130 18050 4576 3447 20180 5215 15190 12850 10110 16220 4737 5252 2778 9980 9298 4921 2741 10870 5925 17100 7751 3865 942 27780 15110 5431 4651 4687 21620 23630 23940 20950 16550 6566 7504 5581 7660 4311 7709 5854 1128 8207 3991 3788 5927 13320 26310 15540 4615 7829 23110 6341 7666 23030 5588 4880 5808 9746 6194 4903 11590
2021-02-14 2766 4618 8037 7512 8608 9432 10940 3665 22540 29050 16290 3968 17030 7623 7109 7828 12710 21490 93360 6317 16750 8617 5429 23350 4202 23980 6668 42820 10380 6080 27000 6636 13720 28770 5648 23570 5834 8852 6387 9381 15690 12850 5241 13450 6561 9667 7928 8030 14730 11030 12210 3545 8573 19130 19990 5601 4602 4016 7151 10550 2888 4692 13390 2447 34870 21610 2592 7358 29660 7951 6621 9910 3838 18480 2596 20120 10820 7521 24590 29050 2764 3805 4625 7827 5757 4122 16130 8653 8152 6384 5262 2884 7001 28900 12050 4992 6280 4693 4810 4587 7834 2907 4375 12810 7321 6143 3545 9879 5175 21480 7021 11300 3929 12290 4614 20070 7585 7068 19480 4058 8071 6017 6640 26050 6332 7888 4512 24710 5402 5408 23150 6929 7243 6886 6581 14410 8492 5311 6912 16800 11560 29660 16620 23240 8677 55130 32440 4672 21010 6012 6350 46190 18170 12320 3634 2444 48430 7183 25280 2362 3142 15400 2043 3053 6438 11310 18530 4175 5710 6356 21850 7766 34080 1882 5521 7336 5995 5019 7776 2854 9407 11200 3740 5154 16580 15920 7012 28280 7659 4548 21050 8779 9154 13230 8524 13340 12410 10270 31510 8571 5405 8769 4240 10200 2385 19200 6118 5667 4774 18210 5796 5220 6247 7449 1427 1725 21050 31140 5203 4808 22640 4425 6614 38290 13800 14080 13500 5657 4549 5402 6511 14150 1573 4295 6540 4281 5208 4420 5424 7285 4816 8125 10490 13010 14140 21640 6988 7503 15820 8059 4868 5500 18750 14180 18100 4585 3463 20270 5222 15230 12860 10140 16250 4757 5261 2786 10020 9329 4941 2749 10890 5937 17120 7757 3880 943 27800 15130 5440 4663 4699 21690 23730 23970 21000 16600 6585 7525 5593 7676 4331 7734 5866 1130 8225 4003 3798 5930 13330 26370 15590 4627 7851 23160 6354 7681 23070 5606 4890 5830 9789 6205 4918 11620
2021-02-15 2772 4647 8075 7542 8672 9451 10980 3673 22590 29120 16350 3981 17050 7649 7149 7853 12770 21520 93730 6343 16810 8650 5460 23460 4222 24080 6694 42980 10430 6115 27080 6644 13760 28890 5667 23610 5855 8867 6415 9401 15740 12910 5257 13480 6587 9680 7944 8047 14780 11080 12240 3557 8588 19210 20050 5628 4623 4030 7188 10580 2908 4727 13450 2455 35020 21700 2597 7392 29730 7972 6653 9925 3855 18560 2608 20190 10890 7533 24670 29170 2779 3816 4651 7840 5779 4145 16180 8701 8175 6405 5290 2894 7016 28950 12060 5008 6316 4698 4829 4635 7858 2921 4392 12860 7355 6156 3562 9892 5188 21530 7043 11340 3947 12330 4636 20100 7603 7094 19540 4070 8095 6037 6664 26100 6350 7905 4534 24800 5428 5432 23220 6969 7263 6902 6595 14440 8519 5349 6957 16860 11590 29790 16670 23310 8712 55320 32590 4687 21050 6040 6359 46330 18240 12340 3641 2459 48590 7229 25320 2372 3152 15450 2056 3060 6452 11370 18580 4185 5729 6412 21900 7790 34160 1885 5538 7359 6016 5042 7802 2862 9439 11260 3756 5179 16650 15980 7049 28420 7698 4563 21110 8804 9183 13320 8537 13380 12470 10290 31560 8605 5431 8794 4252 10230 2395 19280 6129 5680 4781 18300 5826 5240 6276 7468 1442 1732 21130 31280 5215 4834 22720 4439 6623 38390 13870 14120 13560 5685 4561 5429 6548 14210 1578 4323 6565 4289 5219 4430 5442 7326 4833 8167 10520 13060 14170 21670 7010 7528 15900 8085 4883 5527 18830 14240 18160 4606 3482 20370 5233 15280 12880 10180 16310 4781 5271 2804 10080 9363 4960 2758 10900 5953 17150 7765 3902 944 27840 15170 5449 4675 4717 21790 23860 24020 21060 16650 6607 7546 5606 7701 4354 7765 5898 1132 8252 4016 3810 5948 13370 26450 15680 4645 7873 23240 6382 7708 23160 5633 4904 5861 9832 6225 4940 11650
2021-02-16 2779 4681 8108 7588 8726 9470 11030 3680 22640 29180 16410 4002 17080 7671 7187 7870 12820 21550 94110 6368 16860 8688 5488 23570 4243 24190 6725 43120 10460 6144 27180 6652 13790 29010 5691 23650 5875 8881 6439 9420 15790 12960 5270 13510 6617 9690 7964 8062 14840 11120 12270 3570 8601 19290 20150 5656 4644 4044 7226 10610 2926 4773 13530 2464 35170 21790 2603 7423 29790 7994 6681 9940 3872 18650 2621 20270 10970 7545 24770 29280 2794 3827 4671 7852 5805 4167 16220 8753 8200 6426 5325 2903 7032 29000 12080 5023 6352 4704 4855 4670 7877 2933 4414 12900 7389 6173 3574 9905 5209 21570 7066 11380 3963 12380 4657 20140 7621 7116 19590 4086 8119 6056 6691 26140 6378 7930 4559 24890 5452 5451 23300 6999 7291 6916 6610 14460 8545 5387 7010 16910 11620 29900 16720 23380 8747 55510 32720 4700 21100 6076 6366 46500 18300 12370 3649 2474 48750 7260 25360 2383 3163 15500 2066 3067 6472 11430 18620 4196 5749 6450 21940 7816 34240 1888 5561 7380 6042 5068 7829 2871 9468 11320 3771 5205 16720 16020 7086 28550 7727 4580 21180 8828 9205 13390 8551 13430 12520 10330 31610 8643 5460 8825 4265 10250 2406 19340 6139 5693 4788 18380 5855 5260 6306 7493 1456 1736 21210 31420 5225 4858 22810 4454 6633 38520 13940 14160 13620 5716 4574 5458 6585 14270 1583 4352 6592 4298 5235 4443 5454 7369 4846 8196 10550 13120 14200 21690 7033 7553 15970 8109 4898 5554 18920 14310 18220 4623 3500 20480 5243 15320 12900 10230 16380 4810 5280 2817 10150 9412 4982 2766 10920 5966 17180 7773 3933 946 27870 15210 5464 4690 4735 21880 24000 24060 21120 16720 6628 7566 5626 7718 4384 7804 5915 1135 8271 4029 3823 5970 13400 26540 15740 4664 7895 23300 6403 7727 23230 5658 4914 5887 9875 6255 4968 11680
2021-02-17 2785 4712 8147 7621 8780 9492 11080 3688 22690 29250 16470 4023 17110 7695 7229 7890 12880 21580 94490 6396 16920 8726 5522 23670 4261 24280 6750 43300 10500 6175 27270 6663 13830 29130 5712 23690 5891 8897 6468 9440 15850 13010 5284 13540 6654 9698 7982 8076 14890 11170 12290 3581 8614 19380 20230 5683 4674 4059 7254 10640 2945 4813 13580 2473 35310 21890 2608 7450 29850 8016 6712 9955 3887 18730 2635 20340 11060 7557 24860 29370 2809 3837 4689 7865 5827 4192 16260 8800 8224 6443 5356 2912 7048 29040 12100 5037 6386 4710 4887 4712 7884 2954 4433 12940 7427 6190 3586 9918 5230 21620 7088 11420 3980 12430 4678 20180 7639 7141 19640 4101 8143 6079 6712 26180 6405 7955 4583 24980 5477 5472 23400 7044 7317 6930 6624 14490 8573 5426 7062 16960 11660 30040 16770 23430 8775 55740 32870 4712 21130 6110 6375 46660 18350 12410 3656 2487 48900 7307 25390 2394 3174 15550 2080 3077 6491 11490 18670 4207 5778 6481 21990 7840 34310 1891 5580 7402 6071 5094 7854 2888 9502 11370 3787 5234 16810 16090 7124 28680 7756 4600 21240 8866 9228 13470 8567 13490 12580 10370 31670 8682 5486 8848 4278 10290 2416 19420 6151 5707 4795 18480 5885 5281 6335 7514 1478 1740 21290 31580 5236 4880 22890 4469 6641 38620 14020 14210 13680 5747 4585 5486 6613 14330 1588 4380 6618 4308 5246 4455 5470 7411 4860 8225 10580 13180 14240 21720 7057 7579 16050 8138 4916 5581 19010 14380 18280 4644 3517 20580 5251 15370 12920 10270 16420 4839 5291 2826 10210 9448 5004 2775 10930 5980 17200 7787 3959 949 27900 15260 5484 4704 4749 21970 24140 24100 21190 16770 6649 7587 5639 7738 4407 7841 5952 1137 8296 4041 3836 5995 13430 26610 15820 4686 7918 23380 6430 7751 23300 5691 4925 5912 9919 6275 4984 11710
2021-02-18 2792 4747 8186 7652 8826 9511 11120 3696 22740 29310 16540 4042 17140 7716 7272 7903 12940 21610 94970 6424 16970 8763 5551 23770 4278 24420 6776 43470 10530 6205 27360 6671 13880 29230 5733 23720 5910 8912 6500 9467 15900 13070 5299 13560 6685 9703 7996 8090 14950 11220 12320 3592 8627 19480 20300 5711 4701 4073 7289 10670 2963 4858 13620 2481 35450 22000 2613 7489 29920 8038 6741 9971 3903 18830 2648 20430 11140 7569 24940 29500 2824 3849 4707 7877 5847 4215 16310 8853 8248 6468 5395 2922 7063 29090 12120 5054 6419 4716 4918 4750 7912 2968 4452 12990 7463 6211 3601 9930 5244 21660 7110 11450 3998 12470 4700 20210 7664 7165 19690 4115 8168 6106 6734 26230 6431 7979 4613 25080 5503 5491 23490 7090 7343 6946 6639 14510 8599 5465 7121 17010 11690 30160 16810 23490 8817 55950 33010 4737 21180 6143 6384 46820 18420 12460 3663 2500 49070 7357 25430 2404 3190 15600 2099 3085 6511 11560 18720 4218 5806 6511 22040 7867 34390 1894 5605 7425 6097 5115 7880 2907 9552 11420 3803 5263 16890 16130 7161 28810 7791 4617 21320 8902 9258 13540 8592 13530 12640 10390 31720 8725 5512 8869 4291 10320 2426 19480 6165 5720 4801 18560 5915 5298 6364 7530 1505 1748 21400 31740 5247 4901 22990 4484 6649 38750 14100 14270 13740 5783 4597 5515 6642 14390 1594 4411 6645 4317 5256 4466 5483 7447 4873 8271 10610 13230 14270 21750 7080 7605 16130 8174 4932 5608 19100 14460 18340 4663 3537 20700 5260 15410 12950 10310 16470 4870 5301 2837 10280 9484 5023 2784 10950 5994 17230 7797 3979 950 27920 15300 5499 4717 4765 22060 24300 24140 21270 16830 6668 7608 5655 7754 4431 7880 5991 1139 8323 4054 3848 6015 13470 26700 15910 4703 7944 23470 6461 7772 23410 5714 4938 5936 9962 6289 5001 11740

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.