COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-13

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-05	2021-01-03	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	2021-01-05	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-05	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	11-02	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-06	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	2021-01-06	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-06	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-05	12-22	11-04	2021-01-08	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-07	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-06	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-05	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-29	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-05	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-26	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	2021-01-03	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	2021-01-03	12-21	12-30	12-30	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	77	477	587	191	59	326	133	110	108	232	430	1252	74	158	68	60	161	49	484	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	318	107	505	93	189	64	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	266	52	200	250	285	62	90	71	67	244	53	95	284	35	367	289	38	183	598	151	69	188	72	246	28	249	187	118	323	539	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	589	271	95	75	53	89	73	125	53	39	122	81	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	200	57	398	176	103	339	101	109	135	121	482	100	156	47	443	60	115	450	138	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	312	429	112	379	287	104	444	71	113	732	272	200	90	39	377	93	420	29	47	297	49	62	147	119	363	79	105	63	123	85	722	23	50	159	105	51	109	59	124	122	41	57	275	157	124	225	90	44	125	126	109	158	123	201	106	174	621	87	82	171	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	37	26	163	451	43	82	402	65	130	243	210	245	168	98	107	101	69	180	27	43	85	83	96	80	108	82	67	102	113	245	294	456	131	151	222	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	202	105	320	189	181	125	55	107	48	144	321	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	557	152	92	107	85	258	324	452	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	264	83	149	432	106	139	376	106	115	98	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	48	49	48	54	48	67	54	52	49	52	123	48	52	47	33	45	48	53	46	48	48	41	39	41	90	47	54	107	53	48	48	62	48	47	50	54	49	53	39	45	48	102	54	49	50	67	48	54	54	40	53	46	49	53	54	39	54	54	40	49	48	47	46	53	53	45	47	48	48	54	50	54	54	42	103	122	48	68	49	48	51	46	51	54	103	49	105	48	46	47	54	50	53	50	61	53	38	54	52	47	57	47	40	48	49	54	48	53	54	48	54	48	53	54	54	54	53	48	48	53	53	62	48	52	47	54	46	48	38	51	50	54	43	47	48	53	47	47	50	108	54	48	48	46	38	48	47	54	48	48	76	48	48	53	54	40	45	39	53	101	36	54	54	54	53	50	53	49	47	46	41	101	47	67	48	111	49	54	98	54	45	102	54	38	48	54	43	46	54	48	47	48	48	38	38	46	39	46	54	38	38	53	47	54	48	47	62	44	62	119	45	48	48	50	18	47	46	46	41	54	46	46	51	48	45	50	48	54	53	54	47	49	50	39	53	96	51	53	55	41	47	48	53	54	61	47	49	54	49	50	105	53	47	54	104	54	52	53	48	54	68	50	47	45	52	40	40	48	54	49	54	54	63	52	41	54	53	47	53	49	54	108	47	48	57	50	54	54	53	54	48	50	55	62	47	68	53	48	48	46	46	53	53	47	48	53	48	43	47	41	54	45	45	47
Last total	2756	4584	7986	7493	8563	9404	10879	3655	22497	28955	16191	3965	17030	7596	7077	7818	12599	21452	92948	6286	16707	8603	5398	23187	4195	23951	6643	42619	10330	6051	26918	6631	13709	28671	5637	23516	5813	8827	6359	9350	15635	12788	5227	13414	6522	9673	7914	8015	14637	11003	12168	3525	8550	19052	19928	5570	4572	3995	7114	10507	2870	4660	13312	2430	34730	21532	2592	7344	29578	7928	6595	9892	3815	18412	2569	20074	10759	7504	24551	28942	2739	3793	4590	7815	5731	4108	16079	8615	8173	6368	5242	2872	6978	28817	12036	4969	6255	4694	4808	4555	7811	2902	4351	12742	7273	6128	3531	9881	5183	21407	6986	11285	3905	12233	4591	20010	7551	7043	19413	4053	8039	5990	6614	25989	6327	7865	4501	24566	5378	5377	23080	6899	7237	6890	6554	14370	8475	5272	6891	16741	11532	29561	16566	23198	8688	55012	32388	4663	20945	5980	6355	46007	18116	12282	3620	2435	48279	7132	25236	2347	3124	15336	2029	3045	6432	11250	18500	4153	5699	6330	21785	7729	33965	1881	5505	7307	5970	4996	7744	2845	9391	11163	3719	5134	16516	15868	6949	28097	7664	4528	20996	8760	9127	13184	8532	13298	12342	10244	31441	8550	5371	8753	4215	10179	2372	19140	6110	5645	4761	18183	5758	5178	6238	7432	1400	1722	20995	31043	5188	4788	22559	4404	6610	38238	13723	14090	13420	5614	4531	5346	6483	14099	1564	4280	6513	4277	5211	4407	5399	7248	4801	8102	10454	12962	14082	21624	6950	7465	15780	8039	4857	5469	18663	14126	18018	4578	3442	20123	5217	15170	12846	10094	16229	4742	5260	2777	9990	9291	4930	2746	10875	5931	17103	7749	3858	942	27747	15143	5430	4645	4683	21654	23551	23941	20924	16540	6552	7489	5579	7644	4302	7700	5850	1123	8204	4005	3777	5923	13312	26332	15601	4634	7818	23092	6345	7670	23035	5573	4882	5813	9721	6210	4896	11584
Last daily increment	3	7	8	19	27	9	18	3	31	33	51	13	19	13	30	9	26	19	201	13	31	27	8	40	16	63	20	85	8	17	44	7	14	57	16	17	6	6	15	13	43	40	9	12	23	6	11	9	22	32	14	3	13	43	35	19	12	8	13	20	12	31	17	5	82	60	6	27	30	13	15	14	14	54	2	63	20	6	64	49	10	6	8	15	12	10	38	23	24	6	21	7	13	21	6	4	24	6	15	15	8	8	13	28	14	9	16	17	22	20	8	26	6	21	21	17	6	15	23	13	16	5	16	23	12	11	18	40	19	3	34	40	17	13	7	10	13	28	18	38	23	79	33	32	31	138	101	6	22	16	12	90	54	12	4	5	89	9	20	6	3	27	8	6	13	47	48	0	15	17	30	9	34	3	10	13	9	20	17	7	18	46	14	22	51	31	21	69	35	8	55	17	7	57	18	30	24	17	30	33	12	6	9	12	8	41	8	8	1	68	23	6	16	8	4	11	52	92	6	19	37	11	8	68	47	33	31	19	7	13	23	34	2	21	15	6	20	2	3	23	5	17	29	42	22	20	10	7	51	15	13	18	43	44	33	11	14	49	7	25	10	23	41	16	7	5	35	21	22	10	11	9	22	9	11	1	19	36	10	5	10	62	57	37	14	42	14	5	11	9	11	17	11	0	30	16	4	11	12	67	68	17	13	46	14	16	66	15	7	10	18	17	21	23
Last week	35	127	156	189	305	112	202	41	299	351	382	88	125	143	192	128	273	200	2071	158	281	188	152	579	120	552	113	901	180	182	428	57	177	638	94	250	106	81	151	98	329	342	83	148	179	73	122	81	303	299	121	68	109	411	417	171	110	73	187	148	146	205	275	48	751	537	24	181	345	133	179	102	96	440	61	503	297	56	539	541	77	85	94	93	87	138	343	262	176	94	151	45	80	261	72	70	197	86	112	196	91	64	91	204	180	88	81	114	116	231	114	201	95	218	146	230	100	136	293	70	119	83	114	225	133	97	103	436	161	92	384	217	113	124	130	143	128	218	199	356	182	665	335	324	197	1094	782	79	221	131	105	835	449	114	44	64	884	225	205	53	69	255	52	37	101	357	319	72	143	261	277	118	372	25	134	146	115	134	139	47	157	296	99	185	351	330	171	674	210	63	386	140	122	458	110	288	274	165	280	244	134	114	84	144	61	346	67	76	35	509	155	87	215	106	46	45	478	804	60	127	422	80	63	576	408	265	334	126	67	106	193	357	19	145	137	87	87	54	81	179	95	197	182	311	185	216	140	138	422	175	94	147	474	335	336	95	114	501	61	215	138	193	395	128	70	62	304	235	128	51	91	83	179	44	105	8	208	293	67	67	75	539	616	262	275	332	124	108	87	89	141	165	139	9	158	98	49	122	156	503	530	99	104	354	124	105	499	136	76	162	227	114	117	154
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-24	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	10-31	11-01	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-20	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		163	98	54	235		137		55					71	320					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165			55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65									42		52				59									360	152		86	540	254					529					611	61								73					391				51									58	68			610			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		63			44		67				237	234	84		183			435	113						66								24	70		76							118				182	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			139								134	58		22						91		22			320				136				38		31		65	41	130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	18	61		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						10			32			16	56		18			31				14		106	70	9							53			18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18									11		14				21									94	20		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14									16	6			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	21		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18	13	16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-20

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-13	2756	4584	7986	7493	8563	9404	10879	3655	22497	28955	16191	3965	17030	7596	7077	7818	12599	21452	92948	6286	16707	8603	5398	23187	4195	23951	6643	42619	10330	6051	26918	6631	13709	28671	5637	23516	5813	8827	6359	9350	15635	12788	5227	13414	6522	9673	7914	8015	14637	11003	12168	3525	8550	19052	19928	5570	4572	3995	7114	10507	2870	4660	13312	2430	34730	21532	2592	7344	29578	7928	6595	9892	3815	18412	2569	20074	10759	7504	24551	28942	2739	3793	4590	7815	5731	4108	16079	8615	8173	6368	5242	2872	6978	28817	12036	4969	6255	4694	4808	4555	7811	2902	4351	12742	7273	6128	3531	9881	5183	21407	6986	11285	3905	12233	4591	20010	7551	7043	19413	4053	8039	5990	6614	25989	6327	7865	4501	24566	5378	5377	23080	6899	7237	6890	6554	14370	8475	5272	6891	16741	11532	29561	16566	23198	8688	55012	32388	4663	20945	5980	6355	46007	18116	12282	3620	2435	48279	7132	25236	2347	3124	15336	2029	3045	6432	11250	18500	4153	5699	6330	21785	7729	33965	1881	5505	7307	5970	4996	7744	2845	9391	11163	3719	5134	16516	15868	6949	28097	7664	4528	20996	8760	9127	13184	8532	13298	12342	10244	31441	8550	5371	8753	4215	10179	2372	19140	6110	5645	4761	18183	5758	5178	6238	7432	1400	1722	20995	31043	5188	4788	22559	4404	6610	38238	13723	14090	13420	5614	4531	5346	6483	14099	1564	4280	6513	4277	5211	4407	5399	7248	4801	8102	10454	12962	14082	21624	6950	7465	15780	8039	4857	5469	18663	14126	18018	4578	3442	20123	5217	15170	12846	10094	16229	4742	5260	2777	9990	9291	4930	2746	10875	5931	17103	7749	3858	942	27747	15143	5430	4645	4683	21654	23551	23941	20924	16540	6552	7489	5579	7644	4302	7700	5850	1123	8204	4005	3777	5923	13312	26332	15601	4634	7818	23092	6345	7670	23035	5573	4882	5813	9721	6210	4896	11584
2021-02-14	2765	4592	7988	7521	8615	9465	10940	3667	22550	28990	16250	3972	17050	7636	7113	7838	12800	21480	93670	6312	16770	8663	5430	23330	4208	24130	6668	42860	10340	6080	27070	6654	13780	28780	5672	23560	5829	8857	6369	9413	15700	12830	5243	13470	6539	9694	7918	8020	14690	11050	12190	3533	8567	19220	19970	5598	4637	4017	7173	10540	2874	4698	13380	2438	34860	21730	2598	7373	29640	7951	6632	9910	3831	18500	2581	20170	10820	7519	24800	29060	2753	3805	4609	7828	5750	4130	16140	8687	8184	6372	5242	2878	7001	28870	12070	4984	6299	4703	4818	4612	7900	2913	4370	12830	7341	6145	3549	9900	5210	21460	7016	11330	3922	12300	4614	20030	7558	7068	19480	4067	8048	6002	6642	26020	6352	7876	4523	24630	5404	5384	23190	6954	7293	6930	6569	14390	8483	5311	6930	16800	11570	29720	16650	23250	8723	55290	32590	4670	20980	6007	6368	46400	18190	12360	3630	2445	48420	7206	25280	2357	3130	15390	2041	3056	6432	11310	18550	4157	5743	6353	21850	7744	33990	1884	5530	7328	6005	5019	7769	2846	9471	11210	3736	5159	16580	15950	6963	28140	7749	4553	21060	8810	9152	13220	8584	13340	12390	10280	31460	8588	5399	8771	4229	10190	2383	19240	6144	5661	4769	18260	5787	5195	6270	7440	1408	1729	21120	31330	5200	4834	22740	4420	6624	38430	13800	14160	13540	5640	4547	5371	6507	14160	1566	4305	6531	4281	5228	4411	5415	7284	4815	8192	10470	13140	14140	21650	6980	7500	15850	8066	4881	5479	18740	14170	18080	4620	3461	20180	5241	15210	12880	10130	16260	4753	5272	2791	10010	9327	4965	2755	10890	5943	17130	7770	3879	944	27780	15160	5479	4662	4705	21770	23810	24030	20990	16610	6576	7503	5595	7683	4326	7749	5876	1125	8253	4020	3789	5947	13350	26480	15680	4652	7839	23160	6369	7683	23210	5600	4903	5826	9752	6216	4912	11600
2021-02-15	2774	4600	7997	7552	8666	9498	10990	3678	22600	29030	16310	3979	17060	7675	7150	7865	12890	21520	94000	6339	16830	8698	5461	23450	4231	24310	6692	43020	10350	6109	27150	6661	13820	28900	5680	23600	5845	8886	6380	9432	15770	12900	5260	13520	6549	9710	7930	8024	14750	11100	12210	3541	8583	19310	20010	5625	4670	4038	7215	10580	2909	4735	13450	2446	34980	21840	2603	7400	29690	7973	6671	9940	3846	18580	2594	20250	10880	7535	24940	29160	2767	3818	4628	7839	5769	4152	16200	8738	8198	6388	5250	2884	7024	28920	12090	4999	6341	4711	4826	4653	7936	2924	4389	12870	7377	6163	3566	9920	5223	21520	7047	11360	3938	12330	4636	20040	7565	7093	19550	4080	8056	6014	6669	26050	6376	7877	4544	24680	5430	5399	23260	6998	7321	6951	6584	14410	8492	5349	6970	16850	11610	29850	16720	23300	8758	55460	32720	4680	21010	6034	6381	46620	18260	12380	3640	2455	48580	7249	25310	2368	3137	15450	2053	3056	6435	11370	18610	4161	5764	6410	21900	7759	34010	1888	5555	7348	6040	5042	7793	2846	9510	11260	3754	5183	16640	16030	6979	28180	7812	4577	21130	8855	9178	13260	8600	13380	12450	10320	31470	8625	5428	8791	4243	10210	2393	19310	6160	5677	4777	18340	5815	5213	6301	7448	1416	1737	21200	31470	5212	4862	22820	4437	6639	38540	13880	14200	13610	5651	4563	5397	6531	14230	1567	4331	6549	4286	5245	4416	5431	7320	4832	8247	10480	13230	14190	21680	7010	7533	15920	8092	4896	5489	18820	14210	18140	4645	3479	20260	5263	15250	12900	10160	16330	4757	5284	2805	10030	9362	4984	2764	10910	5955	17160	7776	3900	945	27800	15190	5491	4679	4725	21870	23930	24120	21050	16670	6601	7517	5612	7719	4351	7797	5902	1127	8280	4034	3801	5974	13370	26560	15780	4669	7860	23220	6393	7696	23290	5626	4925	5841	9780	6238	4922	11610
2021-02-16	2782	4608	8007	7582	8716	9519	11040	3690	22640	29060	16370	3984	17070	7714	7186	7889	12970	21550	94300	6365	16880	8732	5492	23570	4254	24490	6716	43140	10360	6137	27220	6669	13840	29000	5690	23640	5862	8913	6394	9447	15820	12950	5276	13570	6567	9726	7951	8028	14810	11150	12230	3550	8599	19390	20050	5652	4693	4059	7252	10610	2927	4772	13470	2453	35110	21920	2609	7428	29750	7996	6696	9960	3862	18660	2606	20320	10940	7550	25060	29250	2781	3831	4647	7851	5788	4174	16250	8791	8219	6394	5258	2890	7045	28970	12100	5014	6383	4720	4834	4689	7959	2935	4408	12910	7406	6180	3581	9940	5243	21580	7077	11400	3954	12370	4659	20060	7572	7118	19610	4093	8064	6026	6695	26080	6400	7883	4565	24740	5457	5409	23320	7024	7344	6971	6600	14430	8502	5386	7010	16910	11650	29950	16770	23340	8793	55620	32880	4681	21040	6060	6394	46850	18330	12390	3649	2465	48710	7283	25350	2377	3144	15500	2065	3056	6444	11440	18660	4165	5782	6450	21960	7773	34030	1891	5579	7369	6075	5064	7818	2846	9528	11310	3770	5208	16700	16080	6994	28220	7858	4600	21190	8900	9204	13290	8615	13420	12500	10350	31490	8662	5456	8810	4257	10220	2403	19360	6174	5693	4780	18420	5842	5231	6332	7456	1424	1744	21270	31610	5224	4885	22890	4453	6652	38650	13960	14240	13670	5656	4578	5422	6555	14280	1569	4355	6566	4292	5261	4420	5447	7355	4845	8289	10490	13310	14240	21710	7041	7565	15970	8120	4911	5499	18900	14250	18210	4666	3497	20330	5285	15290	12920	10200	16390	4763	5296	2819	10050	9398	5013	2772	10930	5968	17190	7780	3921	947	27830	15210	5510	4695	4745	21960	24040	24200	21110	16720	6625	7531	5629	7753	4375	7846	5928	1129	8298	4048	3812	5999	13380	26650	15850	4687	7881	23290	6416	7708	23360	5652	4934	5855	9810	6258	4929	11620
2021-02-17	2791	4616	8017	7608	8766	9553	11090	3701	22690	29100	16430	3990	17090	7752	7222	7916	13060	21580	94560	6392	16910	8761	5524	23650	4272	24670	6741	43310	10370	6165	27280	6681	13860	29110	5701	23690	5878	8942	6406	9459	15870	13010	5292	13620	6593	9735	7966	8032	14870	11200	12250	3558	8615	19460	20090	5679	4724	4079	7280	10650	2946	4808	13480	2461	35240	22000	2615	7456	29810	8018	6728	9980	3877	18750	2619	20390	11000	7565	25200	29330	2795	3843	4666	7863	5807	4197	16310	8830	8238	6400	5262	2896	7067	29020	12110	5029	6425	4729	4842	4732	7964	2945	4427	12960	7440	6198	3593	9960	5258	21630	7108	11440	3970	12420	4682	20080	7578	7143	19680	4107	8072	6039	6721	26110	6424	7889	4586	24800	5483	5417	23420	7064	7366	6992	6616	14450	8512	5424	7050	16960	11680	30060	16810	23390	8829	55810	33010	4681	21070	6088	6407	47030	18410	12410	3659	2475	48830	7321	25390	2387	3151	15550	2077	3056	6446	11500	18710	4169	5804	6486	22020	7788	34050	1894	5604	7390	6110	5086	7843	2851	9553	11360	3788	5232	16760	16150	7010	28260	7894	4623	21250	8944	9230	13330	8627	13460	12550	10390	31510	8699	5485	8829	4271	10230	2412	19430	6187	5709	4786	18510	5869	5249	6362	7464	1433	1751	21340	31740	5236	4909	22950	4469	6666	38750	14030	14280	13740	5664	4594	5448	6579	14340	1571	4381	6584	4297	5278	4424	5464	7390	4861	8331	10500	13380	14290	21740	7071	7597	16040	8147	4928	5508	18980	14290	18270	4688	3515	20400	5306	15330	12930	10230	16440	4769	5308	2834	10070	9434	5031	2781	10940	5979	17220	7788	3942	949	27860	15250	5532	4711	4765	22040	24130	24290	21180	16780	6649	7545	5646	7787	4400	7895	5954	1131	8325	4062	3824	6025	13400	26710	15920	4704	7903	23360	6440	7720	23400	5677	4944	5869	9839	6275	4929	11630
2021-02-18	2799	4623	8039	7629	8816	9579	11150	3712	22740	29130	16490	3995	17120	7789	7258	7933	13140	21610	94950	6418	16950	8791	5555	23750	4288	24840	6765	43460	10380	6192	27370	6691	13900	29210	5717	23730	5894	8970	6420	9485	15920	13060	5309	13670	6608	9745	7996	8036	14930	11240	12280	3567	8631	19550	20130	5705	4750	4100	7319	10690	2965	4845	13500	2469	35360	22100	2620	7483	29860	8041	6761	10000	3893	18830	2632	20490	11060	7580	25300	29460	2810	3855	4685	7874	5826	4219	16370	8872	8265	6432	5281	2902	7089	29070	12130	5044	6467	4738	4849	4757	8004	2956	4446	12990	7474	6216	3610	9970	5272	21690	7138	11480	3987	12450	4705	20100	7585	7168	19740	4120	8079	6051	6747	26140	6448	7895	4607	24850	5509	5429	23490	7106	7384	7021	6632	14470	8521	5462	7091	17020	11720	30170	16860	23440	8864	56010	33140	4693	21110	6115	6420	47230	18480	12440	3669	2486	48990	7371	25420	2397	3158	15610	2089	3058	6457	11560	18760	4173	5831	6521	22080	7803	34070	1898	5628	7410	6145	5109	7867	2859	9595	11410	3805	5256	16820	16190	7026	28300	7934	4646	21310	8988	9257	13360	8653	13500	12600	10420	31520	8736	5513	8849	4285	10240	2422	19480	6203	5725	4791	18590	5896	5267	6393	7471	1441	1758	21420	31900	5248	4928	23050	4486	6681	38890	14110	14330	13810	5679	4610	5474	6603	14400	1572	4406	6601	4302	5294	4428	5480	7426	4876	8379	10510	13460	14340	21770	7102	7628	16100	8174	4941	5517	19060	14330	18340	4702	3533	20490	5327	15370	12960	10270	16500	4784	5319	2848	10090	9469	5049	2790	10960	5991	17240	7790	3963	950	27880	15260	5550	4728	4785	22130	24250	24370	21240	16840	6673	7559	5663	7822	4425	7944	5981	1133	8357	4076	3836	6050	13440	26800	15990	4720	7925	23420	6463	7732	23490	5703	4960	5883	9868	6289	4931	11640
2021-02-19	2808	4631	8043	7656	8866	9604	11200	3724	22790	29170	16550	4001	17140	7826	7294	7944	13200	21640	95180	6445	16980	8819	5587	23840	4301	25020	6790	43580	10390	6220	27410	6701	13910	29300	5729	23770	5911	8998	6429	9496	15970	13110	5325	13730	6623	9753	8005	8040	14990	11290	12300	3576	8647	19610	20170	5732	4776	4120	7354	10720	2984	4882	13530	2477	35490	22190	2626	7510	29920	8063	6776	10020	3909	18920	2644	20570	11120	7595	25400	29540	2824	3868	4704	7886	5845	4241	16430	8914	8291	6443	5288	2908	7111	29120	12140	5059	6509	4747	4857	4776	8021	2967	4465	13000	7499	6235	3618	9990	5285	21750	7169	11520	4003	12470	4728	20110	7592	7194	19810	4134	8086	6063	6774	26160	6472	7897	4628	24910	5535	5433	23540	7126	7403	7051	6648	14490	8531	5500	7131	17070	11760	30260	16910	23490	8900	56180	33240	4693	21140	6142	6433	47380	18550	12440	3679	2496	49120	7405	25460	2407	3166	15660	2101	3061	6460	11620	18810	4176	5849	6559	22140	7818	34090	1901	5653	7431	6180	5131	7892	2859	9621	11460	3822	5281	16880	16220	7041	28330	7981	4669	21380	9032	9283	13370	8670	13520	12660	10450	31540	8773	5542	8868	4298	10250	2432	19520	6215	5741	4794	18660	5923	5285	6423	7478	1450	1765	21510	32010	5259	4942	23090	4502	6695	38990	14190	14390	13870	5679	4626	5500	6627	14450	1574	4431	6619	4307	5310	4431	5497	7462	4886	8417	10520	13530	14390	21800	7133	7660	16160	8201	4950	5526	19140	14370	18400	4722	3551	20550	5349	15410	12980	10300	16560	4784	5331	2862	10110	9505	5071	2798	10980	6003	17270	7793	3984	952	27910	15290	5564	4744	4805	22210	24340	24460	21310	16880	6698	7573	5680	7856	4450	7993	6007	1135	8379	4090	3847	6076	13450	26860	16090	4737	7947	23490	6487	7744	23550	5729	4970	5896	9896	6307	4933	11650
2021-02-20	2816	4638	8054	7682	8916	9614	11250	3735	22840	29200	16610	4006	17150	7863	7330	7956	13220	21670	95440	6472	17020	8841	5618	23880	4317	25200	6815	43680	10400	6248	27460	6707	13930	29360	5750	23820	5928	9026	6446	9512	16010	13140	5341	13780	6643	9763	8016	8044	15050	11340	12320	3584	8663	19660	20210	5759	4784	4141	7370	10760	2995	4919	13550	2484	35620	22260	2631	7538	29970	8086	6794	10050	3924	19000	2657	20630	11190	7611	25450	29590	2838	3880	4723	7897	5865	4264	16490	8938	8312	6447	5305	2914	7133	29170	12140	5075	6551	4756	4864	4794	8027	2978	4484	13030	7515	6253	3632	10010	5309	21800	7200	11560	4019	12500	4751	20130	7598	7219	19880	4147	8094	6076	6800	26190	6496	7910	4649	24970	5562	5441	23570	7159	7415	7072	6664	14510	8541	5538	7172	17120	11800	30350	16950	23530	8936	56320	33330	4702	21170	6169	6447	47480	18630	12460	3689	2506	49200	7422	25500	2417	3173	15710	2113	3066	6470	11680	18860	4180	5863	6581	22200	7833	34110	1904	5678	7451	6215	5154	7916	2863	9639	11510	3839	5305	16940	16240	7057	28370	8013	4692	21440	9076	9310	13430	8688	13560	12710	10490	31560	8810	5571	8888	4312	10270	2441	19560	6227	5757	4799	18720	5950	5303	6453	7486	1458	1771	21560	32110	5271	4959	23130	4518	6709	39060	14260	14420	13900	5691	4642	5527	6652	14490	1575	4456	6636	4312	5327	4435	5514	7498	4895	8435	10530	13560	14440	21820	7164	7692	16210	8229	4962	5535	19220	14410	18460	4733	3569	20600	5371	15450	12990	10340	16610	4797	5343	2877	10130	9540	5093	2807	10990	6015	17300	7801	4005	953	27940	15320	5574	4760	4825	22270	24400	24540	21370	16920	6722	7586	5697	7890	4475	8042	6033	1137	8405	4104	3859	6102	13460	26920	16150	4754	7969	23550	6511	7756	23620	5755	4981	5910	9925	6323	4958	11660

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-20

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-13	2756	4584	7986	7493	8563	9404	10879	3655	22497	28955	16191	3965	17030	7596	7077	7818	12599	21452	92948	6286	16707	8603	5398	23187	4195	23951	6643	42619	10330	6051	26918	6631	13709	28671	5637	23516	5813	8827	6359	9350	15635	12788	5227	13414	6522	9673	7914	8015	14637	11003	12168	3525	8550	19052	19928	5570	4572	3995	7114	10507	2870	4660	13312	2430	34730	21532	2592	7344	29578	7928	6595	9892	3815	18412	2569	20074	10759	7504	24551	28942	2739	3793	4590	7815	5731	4108	16079	8615	8173	6368	5242	2872	6978	28817	12036	4969	6255	4694	4808	4555	7811	2902	4351	12742	7273	6128	3531	9881	5183	21407	6986	11285	3905	12233	4591	20010	7551	7043	19413	4053	8039	5990	6614	25989	6327	7865	4501	24566	5378	5377	23080	6899	7237	6890	6554	14370	8475	5272	6891	16741	11532	29561	16566	23198	8688	55012	32388	4663	20945	5980	6355	46007	18116	12282	3620	2435	48279	7132	25236	2347	3124	15336	2029	3045	6432	11250	18500	4153	5699	6330	21785	7729	33965	1881	5505	7307	5970	4996	7744	2845	9391	11163	3719	5134	16516	15868	6949	28097	7664	4528	20996	8760	9127	13184	8532	13298	12342	10244	31441	8550	5371	8753	4215	10179	2372	19140	6110	5645	4761	18183	5758	5178	6238	7432	1400	1722	20995	31043	5188	4788	22559	4404	6610	38238	13723	14090	13420	5614	4531	5346	6483	14099	1564	4280	6513	4277	5211	4407	5399	7248	4801	8102	10454	12962	14082	21624	6950	7465	15780	8039	4857	5469	18663	14126	18018	4578	3442	20123	5217	15170	12846	10094	16229	4742	5260	2777	9990	9291	4930	2746	10875	5931	17103	7749	3858	942	27747	15143	5430	4645	4683	21654	23551	23941	20924	16540	6552	7489	5579	7644	4302	7700	5850	1123	8204	4005	3777	5923	13312	26332	15601	4634	7818	23092	6345	7670	23035	5573	4882	5813	9721	6210	4896	11584
2021-02-14	2760	4595	7987	7515	8594	9416	10890	3660	22530	28980	16240	3975	17040	7613	7106	7828	12650	21480	93150	6306	16740	8635	5416	23270	4208	24000	6662	42740	10350	6071	26950	6641	13730	28740	5645	23540	5826	8839	6368	9359	15680	12830	5239	13430	6541	9679	7922	8027	14680	11040	12190	3531	8556	19100	19980	5593	4587	4004	7138	10530	2885	4684	13340	2436	34820	21590	2597	7358	29620	7944	6614	9910	3828	18460	2577	20140	10790	7514	24630	28980	2750	3802	4600	7826	5746	4125	16130	8648	8193	6364	5254	2879	6991	28840	12050	4977	6283	4706	4823	4576	7818	2907	4362	12770	7302	6134	3540	9897	5198	21440	7002	11320	3919	12260	4612	20030	7558	7063	19440	4061	8056	5990	6630	26020	6340	7871	4516	24610	5400	5380	23120	6925	7251	6902	6565	14390	8492	5307	6911	16780	11560	29640	16620	23230	8698	55150	32480	4666	20970	5998	6369	46120	18170	12300	3627	2440	48390	7156	25260	2355	3128	15380	2039	3051	6441	11310	18550	4159	5716	6354	21830	7740	33990	1884	5523	7327	5982	5017	7763	2843	9414	11210	3733	5156	16550	15910	6973	28180	7690	4540	21050	8764	9140	13210	8542	13320	12390	10270	31480	8577	5392	8761	4226	10190	2382	19180	6120	5655	4764	18250	5782	5188	6270	7443	1409	1729	21050	31110	5193	4808	22610	4417	6620	38320	13760	14120	13460	5621	4540	5357	6508	14140	1566	4296	6524	4287	5224	4414	5404	7278	4809	8127	10480	13020	14110	21650	6969	7483	15830	8058	4870	5489	18720	14160	18060	4588	3456	20170	5224	15200	12860	10120	16270	4758	5270	2784	10030	9321	4950	2755	10890	5943	17130	7752	3871	943	27770	15160	5437	4654	4692	21730	23610	23980	20940	16590	6567	7502	5591	7656	4321	7715	5856	1124	8221	4021	3781	5926	13320	26390	15650	4647	7832	23110	6354	7680	23080	5587	4889	5828	9748	6222	4911	11610
2021-02-15	2766	4616	8014	7546	8657	9434	10930	3664	22580	29040	16300	3986	17050	7636	7139	7855	12710	21510	93500	6331	16790	8667	5444	23380	4228	24090	6683	42900	10390	6102	27020	6649	13760	28850	5659	23580	5846	8855	6390	9377	15740	12890	5254	13460	6561	9694	7939	8042	14730	11090	12210	3543	8568	19180	20050	5616	4605	4015	7174	10560	2905	4718	13400	2443	34960	21690	2601	7386	29680	7963	6646	9920	3844	18530	2588	20220	10840	7525	24710	29080	2763	3814	4624	7836	5764	4148	16180	8696	8215	6382	5279	2886	7004	28880	12060	4991	6318	4714	4840	4622	7841	2918	4378	12810	7334	6148	3557	9909	5213	21480	7025	11350	3934	12300	4633	20060	7572	7090	19490	4073	8076	6003	6652	26050	6361	7884	4536	24680	5426	5400	23180	6962	7270	6920	6578	14410	8507	5343	6952	16840	11590	29770	16670	23280	8734	55330	32620	4680	20990	6024	6382	46260	18240	12320	3635	2454	48540	7199	25290	2364	3139	15420	2050	3057	6452	11370	18590	4168	5736	6414	21870	7761	34040	1887	5541	7351	6005	5039	7787	2847	9445	11260	3748	5181	16610	15970	7004	28290	7735	4554	21110	8789	9166	13300	8555	13360	12440	10290	31510	8611	5416	8785	4239	10220	2392	19250	6132	5668	4772	18340	5808	5207	6301	7462	1422	1737	21130	31240	5205	4831	22690	4431	6628	38420	13830	14150	13520	5643	4550	5381	6541	14200	1570	4321	6546	4296	5235	4423	5421	7314	4827	8172	10510	13070	14140	21680	6991	7506	15900	8083	4885	5511	18800	14220	18120	4606	3476	20260	5232	15240	12870	10160	16330	4777	5279	2799	10080	9353	4966	2762	10900	5954	17150	7757	3891	945	27800	15200	5443	4664	4709	21830	23730	24020	21000	16640	6589	7519	5605	7677	4342	7742	5886	1126	8247	4035	3791	5949	13350	26460	15740	4663	7851	23180	6380	7702	23170	5612	4904	5860	9781	6241	4931	11630
2021-02-16	2773	4637	8038	7580	8702	9447	10970	3668	22630	29080	16360	3998	17060	7659	7171	7878	12760	21530	93820	6356	16840	8698	5470	23490	4248	24180	6705	43030	10420	6130	27080	6658	13790	28950	5671	23620	5866	8870	6409	9390	15790	12940	5267	13490	6585	9702	7960	8056	14780	11120	12230	3555	8578	19250	20110	5640	4619	4026	7206	10590	2922	4755	13450	2450	35090	21770	2606	7416	29740	7982	6671	9940	3859	18600	2599	20280	10890	7537	24790	29180	2776	3825	4644	7848	5782	4169	16230	8744	8236	6395	5304	2894	7017	28930	12060	5005	6351	4722	4856	4659	7854	2929	4396	12850	7364	6161	3568	9920	5230	21520	7047	11380	3950	12330	4655	20090	7586	7114	19530	4085	8095	6015	6672	26080	6385	7899	4555	24750	5450	5415	23230	6988	7289	6934	6591	14430	8522	5379	6989	16890	11620	29870	16710	23330	8765	55490	32750	4691	21020	6048	6392	46410	18300	12340	3643	2467	48680	7231	25320	2373	3147	15460	2061	3063	6464	11420	18630	4176	5755	6454	21910	7781	34100	1889	5565	7373	6024	5060	7813	2854	9466	11300	3763	5207	16660	16010	7035	28400	7766	4568	21170	8806	9187	13370	8566	13400	12490	10310	31550	8644	5441	8812	4251	10240	2401	19300	6142	5681	4777	18420	5834	5224	6332	7482	1433	1743	21200	31360	5215	4853	22760	4444	6636	38520	13910	14180	13570	5662	4562	5406	6571	14250	1574	4344	6569	4305	5253	4432	5435	7350	4840	8198	10530	13120	14170	21700	7013	7528	15960	8108	4899	5532	18880	14270	18180	4622	3493	20340	5240	15280	12890	10190	16390	4797	5289	2810	10130	9384	4986	2769	10920	5966	17180	7761	3912	946	27820	15240	5454	4679	4726	21920	23850	24060	21050	16690	6610	7536	5620	7693	4363	7769	5907	1128	8263	4048	3803	5973	13360	26530	15810	4680	7871	23240	6402	7718	23240	5638	4914	5888	9814	6261	4950	11650
2021-02-17	2778	4656	8058	7611	8754	9467	11010	3672	22680	29140	16420	4010	17080	7680	7203	7904	12810	21560	94110	6380	16880	8729	5499	23580	4265	24250	6727	43190	10450	6155	27130	6666	13810	29050	5684	23650	5884	8885	6429	9404	15840	13000	5280	13510	6613	9709	7982	8069	14830	11170	12240	3566	8587	19320	20180	5663	4639	4038	7232	10620	2940	4789	13480	2457	35220	21850	2610	7441	29800	8002	6699	9960	3874	18670	2610	20350	10950	7548	24870	29250	2789	3836	4661	7860	5801	4191	16280	8785	8257	6405	5326	2901	7030	28970	12070	5019	6382	4730	4875	4703	7860	2943	4412	12890	7397	6175	3578	9931	5243	21550	7069	11410	3965	12360	4676	20120	7599	7138	19580	4097	8115	6026	6692	26100	6409	7914	4573	24810	5474	5429	23290	7023	7306	6949	6605	14450	8545	5416	7028	16930	11650	29980	16760	23380	8791	55680	32880	4700	21040	6073	6403	46530	18370	12360	3651	2476	48810	7268	25340	2383	3158	15500	2073	3068	6475	11480	18670	4185	5776	6489	21960	7801	34150	1892	5583	7394	6048	5082	7836	2863	9490	11350	3778	5234	16730	16070	7067	28500	7792	4582	21230	8833	9209	13460	8576	13440	12540	10340	31590	8677	5465	8830	4263	10260	2411	19370	6152	5694	4784	18510	5860	5242	6363	7501	1450	1749	21280	31490	5226	4874	22830	4459	6645	38610	13980	14220	13620	5680	4573	5431	6597	14300	1578	4365	6589	4315	5265	4441	5454	7380	4855	8230	10560	13170	14200	21730	7036	7550	16030	8134	4915	5554	18950	14320	18240	4639	3510	20420	5245	15310	12910	10220	16450	4816	5298	2820	10170	9416	5002	2775	10930	5977	17200	7768	3934	948	27850	15280	5466	4691	4739	21990	23950	24100	21110	16740	6630	7553	5635	7714	4384	7795	5936	1130	8288	4061	3814	5995	13390	26590	15880	4694	7891	23300	6423	7736	23300	5664	4921	5912	9847	6276	4964	11680
2021-02-18	2783	4684	8090	7636	8801	9484	11040	3676	22720	29180	16480	4024	17110	7701	7240	7917	12860	21590	94570	6408	16920	8765	5526	23680	4282	24370	6748	43350	10480	6181	27210	6674	13850	29140	5704	23690	5900	8901	6455	9430	15890	13050	5293	13530	6638	9716	7999	8081	14890	11220	12260	3576	8596	19410	20250	5687	4660	4049	7262	10660	2957	4830	13510	2464	35340	21960	2614	7473	29860	8021	6730	9970	3888	18760	2621	20450	11020	7560	24940	29360	2803	3847	4678	7871	5819	4215	16330	8832	8283	6432	5360	2909	7043	29020	12080	5034	6414	4738	4900	4731	7889	2954	4429	12930	7431	6196	3591	9942	5258	21590	7091	11440	3981	12390	4697	20140	7620	7162	19610	4109	8134	6047	6711	26130	6436	7932	4597	24880	5500	5445	23360	7064	7326	6970	6618	14470	8562	5452	7078	16980	11670	30100	16810	23430	8831	55880	33020	4723	21070	6104	6414	46680	18430	12400	3658	2490	48970	7317	25400	2392	3172	15550	2087	3074	6492	11550	18710	4193	5804	6519	22000	7824	34200	1895	5610	7418	6074	5104	7859	2875	9534	11400	3792	5263	16790	16110	7098	28610	7827	4596	21300	8865	9235	13520	8600	13490	12590	10360	31620	8720	5490	8849	4276	10290	2421	19430	6164	5707	4789	18590	5887	5259	6393	7518	1472	1756	21370	31640	5237	4895	22940	4473	6653	38740	14050	14260	13680	5711	4583	5455	6626	14360	1582	4394	6614	4323	5277	4450	5466	7415	4870	8271	10590	13230	14220	21760	7056	7572	16090	8169	4929	5576	19040	14380	18290	4655	3529	20520	5252	15350	12940	10260	16500	4844	5307	2831	10230	9447	5019	2783	10940	5989	17220	7773	3954	949	27870	15310	5479	4701	4754	22080	24090	24140	21180	16790	6649	7570	5651	7731	4406	7832	5971	1132	8315	4075	3824	6021	13430	26670	15960	4708	7915	23370	6450	7752	23410	5684	4934	5933	9881	6289	4978	11700
2021-02-19	2789	4705	8127	7668	8849	9506	11080	3680	22760	29230	16540	4034	17130	7724	7271	7932	12910	21610	94940	6432	16970	8796	5552	23780	4297	24480	6771	43500	10500	6208	27290	6683	13880	29250	5722	23720	5917	8917	6484	9456	15940	13100	5307	13550	6671	9726	8011	8095	14940	11250	12280	3589	8615	19490	20310	5711	4689	4064	7291	10690	2975	4871	13560	2471	35470	22060	2618	7498	29920	8041	6753	9990	3904	18850	2632	20520	11080	7571	25020	29460	2816	3860	4695	7881	5838	4236	16380	8882	8309	6455	5392	2916	7056	29070	12090	5047	6445	4746	4917	4760	7912	2969	4444	12970	7460	6213	3603	9953	5273	21630	7113	11470	3996	12420	4719	20190	7635	7186	19650	4120	8154	6068	6732	26160	6455	7949	4620	24950	5528	5460	23410	7098	7352	6993	6632	14490	8580	5489	7118	17020	11700	30200	16850	23480	8859	56070	33140	4736	21100	6128	6422	46830	18500	12430	3665	2503	49120	7362	25430	2402	3182	15590	2099	3080	6504	11610	18750	4202	5823	6549	22050	7849	34260	1898	5631	7440	6099	5125	7886	2889	9568	11450	3808	5288	16860	16160	7130	28720	7862	4610	21360	8900	9256	13580	8622	13530	12640	10380	31660	8755	5514	8870	4288	10310	2430	19490	6175	5720	4794	18660	5913	5277	6423	7533	1486	1763	21460	31780	5247	4915	23020	4486	6661	38840	14130	14310	13740	5743	4595	5489	6652	14410	1586	4422	6640	4331	5290	4460	5482	7450	4884	8302	10620	13280	14250	21790	7079	7595	16150	8197	4941	5598	19120	14430	18350	4676	3549	20620	5260	15390	12960	10290	16550	4861	5316	2841	10280	9480	5037	2790	10960	6000	17240	7781	3977	951	27900	15340	5495	4710	4766	22170	24230	24180	21230	16840	6671	7587	5667	7746	4427	7862	6004	1134	8340	4088	3836	6047	13450	26740	16050	4723	7936	23440	6476	7771	23480	5704	4943	5956	9914	6302	5000	11720
2021-02-20	2794	4724	8149	7687	8889	9521	11120	3684	22790	29260	16600	4043	17140	7744	7303	7939	12960	21630	95340	6456	17020	8824	5569	23870	4314	24560	6793	43640	10520	6231	27350	6691	13900	29320	5737	23750	5930	8933	6508	9477	15980	13150	5319	13570	6694	9732	8022	8106	14990	11290	12300	3598	8624	19560	20380	5735	4704	4075	7312	10720	2992	4903	13590	2478	35570	22150	2622	7517	29980	8059	6777	10010	3919	18910	2643	20580	11130	7583	25080	29520	2829	3869	4708	7890	5857	4250	16430	8921	8330	6463	5412	2924	7069	29110	12100	5059	6474	4754	4934	4783	7927	2976	4460	13010	7491	6230	3611	9964	5288	21670	7134	11500	4012	12460	4740	20210	7649	7206	19680	4134	8173	6085	6751	26190	6470	7967	4636	25010	5552	5470	23460	7132	7369	7006	6646	14510	8596	5526	7141	17070	11730	30310	16900	23520	8882	56230	33230	4749	21120	6151	6432	46950	18560	12460	3672	2510	49220	7399	25460	2411	3194	15630	2111	3086	6516	11670	18790	4211	5844	6577	22090	7867	34300	1901	5649	7459	6118	5147	7912	2896	9594	11490	3823	5309	16940	16190	7162	28830	7885	4624	21420	8922	9272	13640	8639	13560	12690	10410	31700	8789	5539	8878	4301	10330	2440	19540	6185	5734	4798	18710	5940	5296	6452	7556	1499	1771	21530	31890	5259	4935	23080	4502	6670	38930	14200	14340	13790	5768	4605	5508	6675	14450	1590	4440	6655	4340	5300	4469	5494	7481	4894	8320	10640	13330	14280	21820	7099	7616	16200	8220	4952	5621	19200	14490	18400	4691	3565	20690	5265	15430	12980	10320	16590	4880	5326	2853	10320	9512	5057	2796	10970	6012	17260	7789	3993	952	27920	15360	5505	4719	4776	22220	24350	24220	21290	16890	6691	7605	5682	7759	4449	7893	6018	1136	8361	4102	3847	6068	13470	26790	16110	4735	7956	23500	6492	7781	23550	5724	4952	5984	9948	6315	5018	11750

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-13 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-13