COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-14

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-2612-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-062021-01-0411-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-222021-01-0612-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0412-2112-212021-01-0412-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-01-0910-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-222021-01-0612-2112-2312-2712-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-2312-2812-2112-2912-272021-01-0612-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-292021-01-0612-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0612-2211-042021-01-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0411-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0612-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-272021-01-062021-01-0612-292021-01-0612-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0612-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2712-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0412-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-232021-01-042021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 77 477 588 191 59 326 133 112 108 232 422 1251 74 158 66 60 159 49 484 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 318 107 505 93 189 63 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 285 61 90 71 68 244 53 95 283 35 367 289 38 183 598 151 69 188 72 246 24 249 187 118 323 538 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 589 271 95 76 54 89 73 125 53 39 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 200 57 398 175 103 339 101 109 135 121 482 100 156 47 444 60 115 450 138 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 190 312 429 113 379 287 104 444 71 113 731 272 200 90 39 377 91 420 29 47 297 49 62 148 118 363 79 105 63 123 85 722 23 50 159 105 50 108 59 124 122 41 57 275 157 124 225 90 44 125 126 109 160 123 201 105 174 621 87 82 171 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 37 26 163 450 42 82 404 65 130 243 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 43 85 82 96 79 108 81 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 151 222 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 201 106 322 189 181 125 55 107 47 144 315 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 557 152 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 228 77 139 117 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 140 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 49 50 49 55 49 68 55 53 50 53 124 49 53 48 34 46 49 54 47 49 49 42 39 41 91 48 55 108 54 49 49 63 49 48 51 55 50 54 39 46 49 103 55 50 51 68 49 55 55 41 54 47 50 54 55 41 55 55 41 50 49 48 47 54 54 46 48 49 49 55 51 55 55 43 36 123 49 69 50 49 52 47 52 55 104 50 106 49 47 48 55 51 54 51 62 54 39 55 53 49 58 48 41 49 50 55 49 54 55 49 55 49 54 55 55 55 54 49 49 54 54 63 49 53 48 55 47 49 39 52 51 55 44 48 49 54 48 48 51 109 55 49 49 47 39 49 48 55 49 49 77 49 49 54 55 41 46 39 54 102 37 55 55 55 54 51 54 50 48 47 41 102 48 68 49 112 50 55 102 55 46 103 55 39 49 55 44 47 55 49 48 49 49 39 39 47 39 47 55 39 39 54 48 55 49 48 63 45 63 120 46 49 49 51 18 48 47 47 42 55 49 47 52 49 46 51 49 55 54 55 48 50 51 41 54 97 52 54 56 41 48 49 54 55 62 48 50 55 50 51 106 54 48 55 105 55 53 54 49 55 69 51 48 46 53 41 41 49 55 50 55 55 64 53 46 55 54 48 54 50 55 109 48 49 58 51 55 55 54 55 49 51 56 63 48 69 54 49 49 48 47 54 54 48 49 54 49 44 48 46 55 46 50 48
Last total 2759 4599 8019 7519 8602 9410 10919 3662 22524 29000 16244 3982 17048 7613 7097 7837 12641 21494 93173 6305 16725 8617 5412 23272 4211 24014 6654 42752 10339 6069 26961 6641 13730 28724 5644 23543 5820 8832 6382 9366 15701 12830 5233 13425 6544 9677 7932 8027 14678 11048 12188 3528 8571 19103 19968 5594 4582 4005 7137 10529 2883 4684 13333 2432 34818 21593 2598 7364 29618 7940 6620 9904 3830 18473 2577 20154 10795 7511 24613 29009 2746 3797 4596 7832 5736 4130 16125 8645 8194 6375 5253 2877 6984 28848 12052 4976 6285 4695 4820 4570 7825 2911 4360 12775 7296 6130 3544 9888 5193 21429 6995 11319 3910 12248 4599 20035 7561 7059 19447 4057 8064 5994 6627 26018 6344 7881 4511 24610 5398 5382 23127 6907 7245 6898 6559 14382 8481 5297 6904 16775 11550 29670 16608 23222 8708 55161 32493 4667 20966 6005 6366 46117 18151 12297 3624 2452 48409 7175 25261 2351 3129 15364 2033 3047 6439 11301 18533 4159 5722 6355 21836 7748 33998 1883 5520 7343 5985 5003 7766 2850 9416 11203 3737 5171 16565 15910 6966 28163 7703 4547 21038 8771 9136 13243 8543 13331 12366 10263 31468 8579 5397 8767 4224 10193 2375 19182 6125 5661 4763 18242 5769 5190 6252 7449 1405 1727 21051 31126 5195 4799 22600 4415 6612 38331 13782 14140 13457 5626 4539 5363 6503 14136 1564 4299 6531 4286 5220 4417 5405 7265 4805 8122 10477 13001 14104 21647 6965 7481 15837 8053 4871 5478 18727 14179 18063 4594 3446 20186 5229 15191 12853 10108 16278 4758 5262 2784 10022 9318 4939 2749 10880 5941 17124 7765 3873 944 27757 15171 5436 4656 4697 21750 23600 23963 20949 16574 6569 7499 5583 7653 4316 7721 5868 1125 8229 4013 3782 5927 13335 26402 15660 4652 7825 23151 6359 7679 23089 5584 4886 5829 9748 6225 4917 11599
Last daily increment 3 16 30 21 38 4 38 8 22 45 47 15 20 17 20 19 38 36 210 17 17 14 12 83 15 61 9 128 7 17 41 10 16 53 7 23 9 5 23 16 61 38 6 10 20 4 18 12 32 44 20 3 20 43 36 23 7 9 20 22 12 24 22 2 82 58 6 21 37 11 24 13 13 56 6 78 32 7 61 61 6 4 5 15 3 22 39 25 18 7 12 4 7 29 14 6 28 3 13 13 14 9 9 33 21 2 11 9 10 23 9 27 3 12 6 24 10 15 31 4 17 4 14 25 17 15 8 39 19 5 43 7 7 7 2 9 9 23 11 35 18 100 40 21 18 132 99 3 19 22 11 91 32 15 3 11 121 37 25 4 6 27 3 2 8 43 33 5 21 21 48 16 29 2 15 34 15 6 22 3 26 37 17 32 48 38 17 61 38 15 41 11 9 54 10 30 28 19 33 21 24 12 8 13 3 38 14 12 2 57 11 9 13 16 4 4 50 73 7 11 37 11 3 77 50 47 33 11 7 12 19 37 0 18 17 10 9 9 5 16 4 20 23 40 22 19 10 16 52 13 13 8 63 41 41 15 4 61 10 18 7 14 48 14 2 6 27 24 9 3 4 9 21 15 15 2 9 26 5 11 10 95 44 19 18 35 17 8 2 9 14 20 16 2 26 5 4 2 10 69 53 17 7 52 13 8 45 6 4 13 21 13 19 13
Last week 31 110 146 184 278 89 184 44 273 324 353 85 122 127 160 116 251 200 1867 145 234 160 134 538 113 488 100 853 147 167 368 61 152 559 91 209 92 70 142 94 321 305 68 121 174 60 117 78 276 271 125 57 99 371 387 161 92 70 163 142 115 192 212 33 686 491 28 170 316 116 160 102 85 395 61 501 251 54 498 496 59 72 75 97 68 132 336 235 174 76 136 36 68 234 67 60 179 86 111 165 71 61 87 198 163 74 78 108 115 207 93 182 68 195 123 203 93 125 259 58 126 63 97 205 132 95 92 399 148 72 340 166 97 116 98 120 114 194 167 322 168 632 304 281 176 1041 742 57 194 116 97 758 409 105 41 64 824 221 190 42 56 226 42 34 91 350 292 62 144 216 267 104 323 18 135 147 108 118 139 46 143 287 93 194 319 287 159 600 199 69 345 124 97 414 104 268 250 149 264 231 133 100 69 123 50 309 70 71 27 480 135 77 184 105 39 39 442 715 56 109 361 81 57 559 385 261 301 105 67 95 166 323 14 133 130 86 87 56 70 154 84 166 174 294 168 182 123 121 389 155 87 126 452 315 312 88 93 456 57 198 124 172 375 122 59 47 262 229 121 48 81 75 162 50 103 9 173 262 66 69 69 533 507 222 236 295 107 80 75 75 125 160 124 10 154 87 45 105 127 477 477 101 86 319 103 86 451 124 55 143 205 103 120 136
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2410-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 163 98 54 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 360 152 86 540 254 529 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 101 95 43 41 42 196 64 44 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 66 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 70 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 94 20 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 6 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 8 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-15 to 2021-02-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-14 2759 4599 8019 7519 8602 9410 10919 3662 22524 29000 16244 3982 17048 7613 7097 7837 12641 21494 93173 6305 16725 8617 5412 23272 4211 24014 6654 42752 10339 6069 26961 6641 13730 28724 5644 23543 5820 8832 6382 9366 15701 12830 5233 13425 6544 9677 7932 8027 14678 11048 12188 3528 8571 19103 19968 5594 4582 4005 7137 10529 2883 4684 13333 2432 34818 21593 2598 7364 29618 7940 6620 9904 3830 18473 2577 20154 10795 7511 24613 29009 2746 3797 4596 7832 5736 4130 16125 8645 8194 6375 5253 2877 6984 28848 12052 4976 6285 4695 4820 4570 7825 2911 4360 12775 7296 6130 3544 9888 5193 21429 6995 11319 3910 12248 4599 20035 7561 7059 19447 4057 8064 5994 6627 26018 6344 7881 4511 24610 5398 5382 23127 6907 7245 6898 6559 14382 8481 5297 6904 16775 11550 29670 16608 23222 8708 55161 32493 4667 20966 6005 6366 46117 18151 12297 3624 2452 48409 7175 25261 2351 3129 15364 2033 3047 6439 11301 18533 4159 5722 6355 21836 7748 33998 1883 5520 7343 5985 5003 7766 2850 9416 11203 3737 5171 16565 15910 6966 28163 7703 4547 21038 8771 9136 13243 8543 13331 12366 10263 31468 8579 5397 8767 4224 10193 2375 19182 6125 5661 4763 18242 5769 5190 6252 7449 1405 1727 21051 31126 5195 4799 22600 4415 6612 38331 13782 14140 13457 5626 4539 5363 6503 14136 1564 4299 6531 4286 5220 4417 5405 7265 4805 8122 10477 13001 14104 21647 6965 7481 15837 8053 4871 5478 18727 14179 18063 4594 3446 20186 5229 15191 12853 10108 16278 4758 5262 2784 10022 9318 4939 2749 10880 5941 17124 7765 3873 944 27757 15171 5436 4656 4697 21750 23600 23963 20949 16574 6569 7499 5583 7653 4316 7721 5868 1125 8229 4013 3782 5927 13335 26402 15660 4652 7825 23151 6359 7679 23089 5584 4886 5829 9748 6225 4917 11599
2021-02-15 2765 4639 8045 7576 8700 9432 10960 3670 22560 29080 16300 3989 17080 7639 7184 7878 12660 21530 94190 6331 16820 8636 5432 23450 4233 24140 6661 43010 10370 6109 27130 6651 13800 28910 5679 23570 5843 8840 6441 9443 15780 12900 5238 13450 6560 9705 7952 8039 14690 11120 12200 3539 8604 19280 20120 5621 4643 4009 7166 10550 2899 4719 13390 2439 34870 21840 2600 7403 29670 7960 6673 9910 3850 18520 2585 20250 10810 7524 24690 29120 2759 3809 4656 7848 5753 4152 16170 8738 8201 6388 5287 2886 7000 28880 12070 4990 6317 4703 4853 4644 7853 2921 4366 12810 7370 6150 3583 9910 5230 21480 7001 11350 3924 12280 4614 20060 7580 7066 19480 4069 8077 6016 6647 26050 6366 7926 4531 24690 5410 5401 23290 6961 7307 6929 6565 14400 8500 5333 6938 16860 11580 29860 16660 23280 8735 55480 32740 4685 21010 6031 6377 46270 18230 12320 3626 2480 48570 7242 25290 2360 3145 15380 2044 3053 6452 11400 18580 4167 5732 6409 21870 7783 34080 1884 5543 7365 6001 5024 7790 2850 9441 11250 3754 5199 16600 16020 6980 28270 7719 4552 21150 8779 9209 13470 8564 13380 12410 10400 31530 8619 5425 8812 4228 10210 2384 19310 6156 5675 4774 18350 5795 5207 6280 7490 1421 1733 21200 31460 5207 4845 22630 4423 6615 38440 13920 14210 13510 5673 4543 5379 6559 14240 1567 4352 6555 4312 5232 4425 5419 7298 4841 8181 10510 13070 14110 21680 6972 7490 15940 8100 4898 5498 18860 14230 18090 4636 3463 20280 5240 15200 12920 10120 16330 4786 5273 2819 10090 9332 4960 2756 10900 5955 17170 7788 3892 945 27780 15230 5443 4661 4718 21860 24030 24010 20970 16670 6591 7513 5588 7658 4338 7732 5884 1126 8245 4026 3793 5934 13400 26560 15760 4669 7890 23340 6388 7699 23280 5607 4920 5903 9810 6240 4941 11630
2021-02-16 2770 4667 8067 7612 8741 9434 10970 3678 22600 29150 16360 3995 17080 7665 7219 7905 12680 21560 94550 6357 16860 8646 5453 23560 4256 24160 6667 43130 10390 6131 27220 6661 13810 29030 5692 23590 5867 8850 6474 9458 15840 12960 5244 13470 6583 9713 7975 8050 14710 11160 12200 3550 8635 19340 20200 5647 4655 4014 7196 10570 2915 4754 13410 2445 34920 21920 2602 7431 29710 7980 6696 9916 3871 18530 2593 20320 10830 7538 24720 29200 2772 3821 4674 7862 5770 4173 16200 8789 8217 6395 5312 2895 7016 28920 12080 5004 6350 4712 4885 4677 7853 2932 4373 12850 7399 6150 3602 9920 5252 21530 7008 11390 3939 12320 4630 20090 7600 7074 19500 4081 8089 6018 6667 26070 6388 7948 4551 24770 5422 5411 23370 6971 7328 6943 6572 14430 8519 5370 6974 16910 11600 29960 16720 23330 8743 55630 32880 4704 21050 6057 6388 46350 18300 12320 3630 2491 48700 7265 25320 2370 3145 15400 2055 3058 6469 11440 18630 4174 5744 6449 21910 7798 34160 1886 5567 7386 6019 5044 7814 2854 9441 11300 3771 5228 16640 16070 6992 28390 7730 4557 21210 8788 9230 13570 8585 13420 12420 10430 31580 8658 5454 8835 4233 10230 2393 19360 6166 5688 4776 18420 5821 5224 6309 7529 1437 1739 21270 31600 5218 4864 22650 4432 6619 38490 14000 14250 13540 5682 4547 5395 6590 14300 1570 4373 6578 4329 5243 4433 5434 7332 4856 8192 10540 13090 14130 21720 6979 7501 16000 8122 4911 5517 18940 14260 18110 4653 3480 20360 5252 15210 12940 10130 16380 4802 5285 2828 10130 9345 4980 2763 10910 5968 17180 7797 3912 945 27800 15270 5449 4665 4739 21940 24170 24060 20980 16730 6614 7527 5593 7664 4361 7742 5900 1128 8249 4039 3804 5943 13400 26640 15850 4685 7906 23390 6417 7706 23350 5630 4930 5941 9870 6261 4957 11650
2021-02-17 2776 4682 8081 7651 8790 9444 10980 3686 22640 29220 16420 4001 17090 7690 7242 7937 12700 21590 94870 6382 16900 8654 5473 23650 4273 24180 6674 43290 10420 6161 27280 6670 13810 29140 5706 23610 5890 8859 6501 9476 15890 13010 5249 13490 6605 9722 8000 8061 14730 11210 12210 3561 8666 19410 20280 5673 4668 4019 7225 10590 2931 4788 13430 2452 34970 22000 2604 7453 29750 8000 6726 9922 3891 18550 2601 20390 10850 7551 24750 29250 2785 3833 4687 7877 5787 4195 16250 8825 8236 6398 5330 2904 7032 28950 12100 5019 6382 4720 4917 4717 7853 2942 4380 12890 7430 6155 3619 9940 5270 21570 7015 11420 3953 12360 4646 20120 7618 7082 19530 4092 8102 6018 6686 26100 6410 7972 4571 24840 5434 5418 23430 6993 7341 6958 6578 14450 8537 5405 7008 16970 11630 30060 16780 23380 8748 55800 33000 4722 21090 6082 6400 46400 18380 12320 3633 2501 48810 7294 25350 2379 3152 15410 2066 3064 6476 11510 18680 4182 5757 6486 21940 7815 34230 1887 5590 7407 6035 5065 7837 2857 9442 11350 3788 5265 16680 16130 7005 28500 7741 4562 21270 8797 9246 13700 8605 13450 12430 10490 31640 8697 5481 8846 4237 10250 2402 19420 6179 5702 4781 18510 5847 5240 6336 7567 1452 1746 21330 31730 5229 4881 22670 4440 6623 38560 14070 14290 13570 5702 4552 5411 6607 14360 1573 4393 6601 4353 5254 4441 5448 7365 4878 8213 10560 13120 14140 21750 6987 7512 16070 8154 4927 5536 19020 14300 18130 4669 3497 20440 5264 15230 12960 10140 16440 4816 5296 2838 10160 9358 5000 2770 10930 5981 17200 7804 3931 946 27820 15300 5451 4670 4758 22010 24300 24100 21000 16790 6636 7540 5598 7669 4383 7752 5916 1129 8264 4053 3814 5952 13420 26710 15940 4701 7919 23430 6445 7712 23400 5654 4939 5975 9930 6278 4968 11670
2021-02-18 2782 4708 8108 7679 8833 9444 10980 3694 22680 29300 16480 4007 17120 7716 7274 7955 12720 21620 95290 6408 16930 8664 5494 23740 4289 24200 6679 43440 10440 6175 27370 6680 13830 29230 5722 23640 5914 8869 6530 9500 15950 13060 5254 13510 6621 9728 8028 8073 14750 11260 12210 3572 8697 19470 20340 5699 4680 4025 7254 10610 2947 4823 13440 2459 35020 22100 2605 7486 29790 8020 6756 9929 3911 18580 2609 20490 10870 7564 24760 29340 2798 3845 4699 7890 5805 4216 16290 8864 8252 6416 5362 2913 7048 28990 12120 5033 6414 4728 4948 4739 7853 2952 4386 12930 7463 6164 3636 9960 5288 21620 7021 11460 3967 12390 4662 20150 7637 7090 19560 4104 8118 6020 6706 26130 6432 7992 4591 24920 5446 5426 23500 7015 7354 6978 6584 14470 8555 5441 7044 17020 11650 30170 16830 23430 8764 55990 33130 4740 21130 6107 6411 46460 18450 12330 3636 2510 48960 7335 25380 2388 3158 15430 2077 3070 6492 11570 18730 4189 5778 6521 21970 7826 34300 1888 5613 7429 6053 5086 7861 2863 9461 11390 3805 5306 16720 16170 7017 28610 7750 4567 21330 8805 9262 13800 8626 13490 12460 10530 31690 8736 5509 8858 4242 10270 2411 19470 6191 5715 4784 18590 5873 5257 6364 7605 1468 1752 21410 31860 5240 4894 22700 4449 6628 38640 14130 14330 13610 5718 4556 5427 6638 14420 1576 4418 6624 4377 5265 4448 5462 7398 4896 8239 10590 13140 14150 21790 6994 7524 16130 8189 4938 5555 19090 14340 18160 4679 3513 20510 5275 15240 12990 10150 16500 4840 5307 2843 10190 9370 5020 2777 10950 5994 17230 7807 3951 946 27840 15340 5452 4675 4777 22090 24440 24150 21010 16840 6659 7553 5603 7674 4405 7761 5932 1131 8282 4067 3824 5962 13450 26790 16040 4717 7927 23480 6474 7712 23490 5679 4950 5997 9990 6291 4982 11700
2021-02-19 2787 4745 8153 7716 8884 9450 11000 3702 22710 29370 16540 4013 17140 7741 7299 7974 12740 21660 95620 6434 16980 8681 5515 23830 4303 24230 6685 43570 10470 6222 27470 6689 13850 29340 5742 23660 5937 8880 6570 9523 15990 13110 5259 13530 6657 9742 8045 8084 14770 11300 12220 3583 8728 19530 20420 5725 4704 4030 7284 10640 2963 4858 13480 2465 35070 22190 2606 7517 29840 8041 6776 9935 3931 18610 2618 20570 10880 7577 24780 29430 2811 3856 4710 7904 5823 4237 16330 8909 8295 6448 5402 2922 7063 29020 12130 5048 6446 4737 4980 4764 7860 2962 4393 12970 7494 6169 3649 9970 5306 21670 7028 11490 3982 12430 4678 20170 7656 7097 19590 4116 8149 6030 6726 26150 6454 8017 4611 24990 5458 5444 23560 7030 7378 7003 6591 14490 8574 5477 7081 17070 11680 30270 16890 23480 8771 56190 33250 4758 21160 6133 6423 46510 18520 12340 3640 2522 49080 7372 25410 2398 3158 15450 2088 3075 6519 11630 18780 4196 5783 6560 22010 7850 34370 1890 5637 7450 6070 5106 7884 2879 9473 11440 3822 5333 16770 16210 7028 28720 7757 4572 21390 8814 9280 13880 8646 13530 12480 10570 31750 8775 5537 8872 4247 10280 2419 19520 6201 5728 4788 18660 5900 5274 6393 7644 1483 1758 21500 31990 5251 4908 22720 4458 6633 38700 14190 14390 13630 5747 4560 5443 6664 14480 1579 4439 6646 4392 5276 4455 5477 7432 4912 8253 10620 13160 14160 21820 7001 7535 16200 8214 4950 5574 19160 14390 18180 4694 3530 20610 5287 15250 13020 10160 16560 4863 5319 2851 10240 9383 5039 2784 10960 6006 17240 7818 3970 946 27870 15380 5460 4679 4797 22180 24590 24200 21030 16890 6681 7566 5608 7678 4428 7770 5949 1132 8300 4080 3835 5971 13480 26870 16130 4733 7947 23540 6503 7720 23550 5703 4961 6034 10040 6308 5010 11720
2021-02-20 2793 4755 8158 7736 8908 9450 11000 3710 22750 29440 16590 4019 17160 7767 7322 7983 12760 21690 95810 6460 17010 8681 5536 23870 4317 24230 6691 43650 10490 6231 27510 6698 13850 29400 5755 23690 5961 8890 6589 9534 16030 13140 5265 13560 6669 9746 8056 8095 14780 11330 12220 3593 8759 19560 20450 5751 4709 4036 7313 10660 2979 4892 13480 2472 35130 22240 2608 7537 29880 8061 6789 9941 3952 18610 2626 20630 10900 7591 24780 29450 2824 3868 4710 7918 5841 4259 16350 8927 8306 6448 5417 2931 7079 29050 12150 5063 6478 4745 5011 4776 7860 2972 4400 13010 7503 6169 3663 9990 5322 21720 7035 11520 3996 12470 4694 20200 7675 7105 19610 4129 8161 6030 6746 26180 6476 8032 4631 25070 5470 5446 23600 7044 7385 7010 6597 14510 8592 5513 7117 17100 11700 30340 16940 23530 8772 56310 33330 4776 21200 6159 6434 46520 18600 12340 3644 2526 49140 7373 25440 2407 3158 15470 2100 3081 6529 11670 18830 4204 5787 6583 22040 7852 34440 1891 5661 7471 6088 5127 7908 2882 9473 11490 3839 5357 16810 16240 7040 28830 7767 4576 21430 8822 9280 13950 8666 13550 12480 10590 31810 8814 5565 8872 4252 10300 2428 19550 6210 5742 4789 18710 5926 5291 6421 7683 1498 1764 21540 32060 5262 4919 22740 4467 6638 38730 14220 14410 13640 5753 4565 5460 6680 14520 1582 4451 6669 4405 5287 4463 5492 7466 4915 8257 10650 13160 14170 21860 7008 7547 16240 8224 4959 5593 19200 14420 18200 4703 3547 20650 5299 15260 13040 10170 16600 4874 5330 2857 10260 9396 5059 2791 10980 6019 17250 7825 3990 947 27890 15410 5460 4684 4816 22220 24650 24240 21040 16930 6704 7579 5613 7683 4450 7780 5965 1134 8310 4094 3846 5981 13490 26920 16230 4748 7955 23570 6532 7723 23580 5728 4963 6050 10100 6321 5026 11750
2021-02-21 2799 4764 8174 7762 8942 9453 11020 3718 22790 29510 16650 4025 17170 7793 7347 8003 12780 21720 95960 6486 17030 8693 5557 23940 4330 24270 6696 43770 10520 6246 27560 6707 13850 29450 5763 23710 5985 8901 6605 9548 16080 13180 5270 13580 6689 9753 8069 8106 14800 11370 12230 3604 8790 19600 20480 5776 4720 4041 7343 10680 2995 4927 13500 2479 35180 22300 2609 7554 29920 8082 6810 9948 3972 18650 2634 20700 10920 7604 24850 29500 2838 3880 4717 7932 5859 4280 16380 8951 8321 6448 5422 2940 7095 29090 12160 5078 6510 4753 5043 4793 7860 2982 4406 13040 7526 6171 3674 10010 5337 21770 7042 11560 4011 12510 4710 20230 7694 7113 19640 4141 8175 6030 6766 26210 6499 8043 4651 25140 5482 5450 23650 7052 7396 7020 6603 14530 8611 5549 7153 17140 11730 30430 17000 23580 8783 56440 33430 4794 21240 6184 6446 46630 18670 12350 3647 2534 49250 7401 25480 2416 3161 15480 2111 3087 6533 11720 18870 4211 5808 6604 22070 7863 34510 1893 5684 7492 6105 5148 7931 2883 9489 11530 3856 5380 16850 16280 7052 28950 7801 4581 21470 8831 9295 13990 8687 13570 12510 10600 31860 8853 5593 8883 4256 10320 2437 19590 6222 5755 4792 18760 5952 5308 6450 7722 1513 1771 21600 32130 5274 4937 22760 4475 6642 38790 14280 14440 13670 5761 4569 5476 6698 14560 1585 4468 6692 4410 5298 4470 5507 7500 4923 8277 10670 13210 14180 21890 7015 7558 16300 8236 4970 5611 19260 14450 18220 4716 3564 20700 5311 15270 13040 10180 16640 4888 5342 2864 10290 9408 5079 2798 10990 6032 17280 7839 4009 947 27910 15430 5465 4688 4836 22300 24690 24290 21060 16960 6726 7592 5618 7688 4473 7789 5982 1135 8333 4107 3856 5990 13500 26980 16320 4764 7968 23620 6560 7734 23630 5752 4971 6062 10160 6333 5042 11770

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-15 to 2021-02-21

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-14 2759 4599 8019 7519 8602 9410 10919 3662 22524 29000 16244 3982 17048 7613 7097 7837 12641 21494 93173 6305 16725 8617 5412 23272 4211 24014 6654 42752 10339 6069 26961 6641 13730 28724 5644 23543 5820 8832 6382 9366 15701 12830 5233 13425 6544 9677 7932 8027 14678 11048 12188 3528 8571 19103 19968 5594 4582 4005 7137 10529 2883 4684 13333 2432 34818 21593 2598 7364 29618 7940 6620 9904 3830 18473 2577 20154 10795 7511 24613 29009 2746 3797 4596 7832 5736 4130 16125 8645 8194 6375 5253 2877 6984 28848 12052 4976 6285 4695 4820 4570 7825 2911 4360 12775 7296 6130 3544 9888 5193 21429 6995 11319 3910 12248 4599 20035 7561 7059 19447 4057 8064 5994 6627 26018 6344 7881 4511 24610 5398 5382 23127 6907 7245 6898 6559 14382 8481 5297 6904 16775 11550 29670 16608 23222 8708 55161 32493 4667 20966 6005 6366 46117 18151 12297 3624 2452 48409 7175 25261 2351 3129 15364 2033 3047 6439 11301 18533 4159 5722 6355 21836 7748 33998 1883 5520 7343 5985 5003 7766 2850 9416 11203 3737 5171 16565 15910 6966 28163 7703 4547 21038 8771 9136 13243 8543 13331 12366 10263 31468 8579 5397 8767 4224 10193 2375 19182 6125 5661 4763 18242 5769 5190 6252 7449 1405 1727 21051 31126 5195 4799 22600 4415 6612 38331 13782 14140 13457 5626 4539 5363 6503 14136 1564 4299 6531 4286 5220 4417 5405 7265 4805 8122 10477 13001 14104 21647 6965 7481 15837 8053 4871 5478 18727 14179 18063 4594 3446 20186 5229 15191 12853 10108 16278 4758 5262 2784 10022 9318 4939 2749 10880 5941 17124 7765 3873 944 27757 15171 5436 4656 4697 21750 23600 23963 20949 16574 6569 7499 5583 7653 4316 7721 5868 1125 8229 4013 3782 5927 13335 26402 15660 4652 7825 23151 6359 7679 23089 5584 4886 5829 9748 6225 4917 11599
2021-02-15 2763 4616 8040 7551 8663 9421 10950 3668 22560 29050 16300 3994 17060 7633 7131 7864 12670 21520 93480 6325 16770 8640 5436 23380 4231 24100 6669 42890 10370 6092 27010 6649 13760 28820 5654 23570 5838 8841 6406 9383 15760 12890 5244 13440 6560 9690 7948 8042 14710 11100 12200 3536 8587 19180 20030 5617 4599 4014 7168 10550 2901 4713 13370 2437 34940 21690 2603 7392 29660 7955 6652 9920 3846 18540 2584 20240 10830 7520 24680 29100 2756 3805 4619 7844 5748 4152 16170 8689 8211 6386 5273 2883 6995 28870 12060 4986 6319 4703 4838 4609 7841 2922 4371 12800 7324 6138 3562 9901 5209 21460 7009 11350 3920 12270 4614 20060 7573 7080 19480 4066 8080 6001 6646 26050 6363 7894 4526 24670 5419 5395 23190 6937 7262 6914 6568 14400 8498 5328 6934 16830 11570 29800 16650 23270 8740 55340 32630 4676 20990 6026 6378 46220 18210 12310 3628 2467 48550 7213 25290 2358 3136 15400 2040 3051 6449 11360 18570 4165 5739 6413 21880 7765 34040 1885 5537 7370 6003 5018 7788 2851 9438 11250 3752 5197 16610 15970 6985 28260 7749 4559 21100 8786 9162 13340 8552 13370 12400 10290 31500 8611 5419 8788 4233 10210 2382 19250 6138 5672 4769 18330 5790 5202 6279 7464 1416 1735 21130 31250 5204 4820 22650 4425 6618 38420 13850 14180 13500 5642 4547 5377 6539 14190 1566 4323 6551 4296 5232 4423 5417 7295 4820 8160 10500 13040 14130 21670 6979 7499 15900 8076 4886 5494 18800 14230 18110 4613 3462 20260 5239 15220 12870 10130 16340 4776 5269 2798 10060 9343 4953 2757 10890 5952 17150 7772 3889 945 27780 15220 5438 4665 4712 21850 23710 24010 20990 16620 6587 7510 5591 7667 4334 7740 5893 1126 8252 4026 3789 5939 13360 26470 15750 4669 7844 23220 6382 7700 23170 5604 4899 5853 9777 6244 4935 11620
2021-02-16 2769 4636 8060 7585 8708 9432 10990 3672 22610 29090 16360 4007 17070 7655 7164 7887 12720 21550 93780 6350 16810 8668 5460 23480 4251 24170 6687 43030 10400 6118 27070 6656 13780 28930 5665 23600 5857 8855 6425 9395 15810 12940 5257 13460 6584 9698 7967 8056 14760 11140 12220 3547 8597 19240 20090 5640 4614 4024 7199 10580 2919 4748 13420 2443 35050 21770 2606 7420 29700 7974 6677 9930 3861 18600 2594 20310 10870 7531 24760 29180 2768 3816 4638 7855 5764 4173 16210 8737 8230 6395 5297 2890 7009 28900 12070 4999 6352 4712 4856 4645 7847 2933 4387 12840 7354 6149 3573 9912 5227 21500 7027 11380 3935 12300 4633 20090 7588 7101 19520 4077 8098 6011 6666 26080 6386 7908 4544 24730 5439 5408 23250 6961 7282 6928 6580 14410 8517 5364 6970 16880 11600 29900 16700 23310 8767 55500 32770 4685 21010 6049 6389 46360 18270 12330 3635 2479 48690 7244 25310 2367 3144 15430 2051 3056 6462 11410 18610 4173 5756 6453 21920 7783 34090 1888 5560 7392 6023 5038 7812 2857 9455 11300 3767 5223 16670 16020 7011 28370 7778 4571 21160 8803 9182 13400 8563 13410 12450 10320 31540 8644 5442 8814 4244 10230 2391 19300 6147 5684 4773 18420 5815 5219 6310 7484 1426 1741 21200 31370 5215 4841 22700 4438 6626 38510 13920 14220 13540 5656 4558 5399 6569 14240 1569 4345 6573 4306 5248 4431 5430 7330 4833 8183 10530 13090 14160 21700 6998 7519 15960 8099 4900 5513 18880 14280 18160 4629 3480 20330 5248 15250 12890 10160 16400 4795 5278 2810 10110 9371 4972 2764 10900 5963 17170 7777 3909 947 27810 15260 5448 4677 4729 21940 23820 24050 21030 16680 6608 7524 5603 7680 4355 7762 5913 1128 8266 4039 3800 5961 13370 26550 15820 4686 7863 23270 6403 7716 23240 5629 4907 5882 9811 6263 4955 11640
2021-02-17 2774 4654 8079 7616 8757 9449 11020 3677 22650 29140 16410 4019 17090 7676 7195 7913 12760 21580 94060 6374 16850 8695 5488 23570 4268 24240 6705 43180 10430 6143 27110 6664 13800 29030 5676 23630 5875 8868 6445 9408 15860 13000 5270 13480 6610 9704 7986 8069 14800 11180 12230 3559 8608 19310 20150 5662 4633 4035 7224 10600 2937 4781 13440 2450 35170 21840 2610 7444 29750 7993 6705 9950 3876 18660 2604 20370 10920 7541 24830 29250 2780 3827 4653 7865 5781 4195 16260 8776 8249 6403 5317 2897 7022 28930 12080 5012 6382 4720 4875 4689 7852 2947 4401 12880 7385 6160 3583 9923 5241 21540 7046 11400 3950 12340 4654 20120 7603 7122 19560 4089 8115 6019 6685 26100 6410 7922 4562 24780 5461 5421 23310 6992 7298 6942 6591 14430 8534 5399 7007 16930 11630 30010 16740 23360 8789 55680 32900 4695 21040 6073 6400 46470 18340 12350 3642 2488 48810 7279 25330 2375 3153 15470 2062 3061 6472 11480 18650 4182 5775 6488 21960 7801 34140 1890 5579 7414 6044 5058 7835 2865 9476 11340 3782 5251 16730 16070 7037 28480 7801 4583 21220 8827 9202 13490 8574 13450 12490 10340 31580 8676 5466 8830 4255 10250 2400 19370 6157 5696 4780 18500 5839 5236 6340 7503 1441 1748 21270 31490 5226 4861 22760 4451 6635 38590 13990 14250 13590 5674 4567 5421 6594 14300 1572 4366 6591 4317 5259 4439 5448 7358 4848 8214 10560 13140 14190 21730 7018 7539 16030 8125 4915 5533 18950 14330 18200 4646 3496 20400 5254 15290 12910 10190 16450 4812 5287 2819 10150 9399 4987 2770 10920 5973 17190 7783 3929 948 27830 15290 5459 4688 4740 22020 23920 24080 21080 16720 6628 7538 5614 7699 4377 7784 5939 1129 8289 4053 3810 5981 13390 26610 15890 4700 7881 23330 6425 7732 23290 5656 4914 5907 9844 6278 4970 11660
2021-02-18 2779 4674 8100 7641 8801 9460 11050 3682 22690 29190 16470 4030 17100 7696 7227 7929 12810 21600 94400 6398 16880 8722 5514 23670 4284 24310 6723 43320 10460 6167 27160 6672 13830 29120 5690 23660 5892 8882 6465 9426 15910 13050 5283 13500 6630 9709 8001 8082 14850 11230 12250 3569 8617 19380 20220 5685 4649 4046 7253 10630 2954 4814 13470 2457 35290 21930 2613 7468 29790 8011 6733 9960 3891 18720 2613 20470 10970 7552 24890 29340 2792 3839 4669 7877 5798 4219 16310 8816 8269 6419 5342 2904 7036 28970 12090 5027 6414 4729 4893 4712 7862 2954 4415 12920 7415 6174 3594 9934 5255 21580 7064 11430 3965 12370 4674 20150 7618 7145 19590 4099 8133 6031 6704 26130 6432 7934 4581 24840 5484 5434 23360 7024 7312 6963 6603 14440 8550 5434 7043 16980 11650 30120 16790 23400 8814 55850 33030 4705 21060 6096 6413 46590 18400 12370 3649 2498 48960 7321 25380 2384 3163 15510 2074 3066 6484 11540 18690 4191 5799 6522 22000 7817 34190 1893 5602 7438 6064 5078 7858 2871 9506 11390 3796 5280 16780 16110 7063 28590 7829 4595 21270 8846 9221 13550 8589 13490 12540 10370 31620 8709 5490 8847 4265 10270 2409 19410 6167 5708 4785 18580 5864 5252 6370 7520 1455 1755 21350 31600 5236 4878 22830 4464 6643 38680 14050 14280 13650 5688 4577 5441 6623 14350 1574 4389 6613 4329 5271 4447 5460 7389 4861 8250 10580 13180 14210 21760 7037 7560 16090 8153 4927 5552 19030 14380 18250 4658 3515 20480 5263 15320 12930 10210 16510 4834 5296 2828 10200 9428 5003 2778 10930 5984 17210 7785 3947 949 27850 15320 5468 4698 4754 22100 24030 24120 21120 16780 6647 7552 5628 7714 4398 7804 5963 1131 8311 4066 3818 6005 13420 26680 15960 4712 7899 23380 6446 7744 23370 5679 4924 5927 9877 6291 4985 11690
2021-02-19 2784 4695 8136 7673 8848 9478 11090 3687 22720 29240 16530 4041 17120 7718 7259 7943 12850 21630 94740 6423 16930 8750 5538 23770 4299 24400 6741 43470 10480 6197 27230 6679 13850 29220 5707 23690 5908 8896 6495 9449 15960 13090 5296 13520 6664 9720 8010 8096 14890 11260 12260 3580 8635 19460 20280 5708 4677 4060 7281 10660 2972 4854 13510 2463 35400 22030 2617 7489 29840 8030 6758 9980 3906 18800 2623 20540 11010 7562 24970 29410 2804 3852 4683 7885 5815 4240 16350 8866 8296 6442 5374 2911 7049 29010 12100 5039 6445 4738 4912 4739 7879 2969 4428 12950 7444 6189 3605 9945 5271 21620 7082 11460 3980 12400 4693 20190 7634 7165 19620 4109 8152 6049 6723 26160 6451 7949 4604 24900 5509 5447 23420 7054 7338 6985 6615 14460 8573 5470 7080 17030 11680 30230 16830 23450 8838 56050 33150 4715 21080 6120 6423 46720 18470 12400 3656 2511 49090 7366 25400 2393 3171 15550 2084 3071 6496 11600 18730 4200 5815 6553 22040 7843 34240 1896 5624 7460 6086 5098 7884 2885 9536 11440 3811 5304 16850 16160 7089 28700 7860 4606 21340 8868 9240 13600 8610 13530 12580 10390 31650 8743 5514 8865 4276 10300 2418 19470 6177 5720 4790 18650 5889 5268 6400 7535 1466 1762 21440 31730 5245 4898 22890 4476 6651 38770 14130 14320 13700 5717 4587 5472 6647 14400 1577 4416 6638 4337 5283 4456 5477 7422 4876 8277 10610 13230 14240 21790 7056 7581 16150 8180 4938 5572 19110 14430 18290 4678 3534 20580 5272 15360 12950 10240 16550 4850 5304 2838 10240 9457 5020 2785 10940 5994 17230 7795 3968 951 27880 15360 5482 4705 4765 22190 24170 24160 21160 16820 6667 7565 5641 7725 4420 7828 5994 1133 8334 4080 3828 6031 13450 26740 16050 4728 7918 23450 6471 7761 23440 5697 4933 5952 9910 6305 5010 11710
2021-02-20 2789 4713 8156 7695 8884 9490 11120 3691 22750 29270 16590 4052 17140 7737 7291 7951 12890 21650 95100 6447 16970 8776 5555 23850 4316 24460 6759 43600 10500 6219 27290 6686 13870 29300 5721 23720 5921 8910 6518 9469 16000 13140 5308 13540 6687 9726 8017 8107 14930 11300 12280 3589 8644 19520 20340 5731 4692 4070 7300 10680 2989 4886 13540 2470 35490 22110 2620 7508 29890 8047 6782 10000 3921 18850 2633 20600 11060 7573 25030 29460 2817 3861 4694 7894 5832 4254 16390 8903 8317 6449 5393 2918 7063 29040 12110 5051 6472 4746 4931 4760 7888 2977 4443 12990 7472 6205 3614 9956 5289 21660 7100 11480 3995 12430 4712 20210 7649 7183 19650 4122 8170 6065 6742 26180 6468 7966 4621 24960 5530 5456 23470 7086 7356 6998 6628 14480 8587 5506 7107 17070 11700 30330 16880 23480 8858 56200 33240 4727 21110 6144 6434 46820 18530 12420 3663 2517 49200 7400 25420 2402 3183 15590 2095 3076 6508 11660 18760 4209 5835 6579 22080 7858 34280 1898 5642 7479 6105 5119 7908 2892 9558 11480 3826 5325 16910 16200 7116 28810 7882 4618 21390 8890 9254 13660 8628 13560 12630 10410 31690 8778 5538 8873 4287 10310 2427 19520 6187 5732 4794 18710 5915 5286 6429 7559 1478 1769 21500 31830 5257 4917 22950 4490 6659 38850 14190 14350 13740 5736 4596 5489 6668 14450 1580 4434 6652 4346 5293 4463 5488 7452 4885 8293 10630 13270 14260 21820 7074 7600 16200 8200 4951 5592 19180 14480 18330 4693 3549 20640 5279 15390 12970 10270 16610 4868 5313 2849 10280 9486 5039 2792 10950 6005 17250 7804 3984 952 27890 15380 5492 4712 4774 22240 24290 24190 21210 16870 6686 7580 5652 7737 4442 7853 6009 1135 8354 4094 3838 6054 13460 26790 16120 4740 7936 23500 6488 7772 23500 5718 4941 5981 9944 6318 5030 11730
2021-02-21 2794 4731 8171 7713 8918 9505 11150 3696 22770 29290 16650 4067 17140 7756 7323 7960 12940 21670 95390 6472 17010 8808 5572 23950 4329 24520 6778 43750 10510 6239 27330 6695 13900 29370 5731 23750 5933 8924 6534 9487 16050 13190 5319 13560 6710 9732 8022 8118 14980 11340 12290 3598 8652 19590 20400 5754 4712 4079 7325 10710 3005 4918 13570 2477 35570 22190 2624 7521 29930 8063 6806 10010 3935 18910 2643 20660 11110 7584 25110 29520 2829 3870 4706 7901 5849 4269 16440 8943 8334 6451 5408 2925 7077 29060 12120 5061 6500 4755 4950 4786 7901 2987 4454 13040 7504 6215 3622 9967 5301 21690 7117 11510 4010 12470 4730 20240 7665 7202 19670 4131 8188 6074 6760 26210 6483 7976 4639 25010 5550 5462 23520 7113 7375 7007 6640 14500 8597 5543 7136 17120 11730 30420 16930 23510 8867 56350 33340 4739 21130 6168 6445 46960 18580 12450 3669 2524 49320 7436 25440 2411 3190 15630 2108 3081 6518 11710 18800 4218 5855 6600 22130 7875 34300 1901 5660 7501 6124 5139 7931 2893 9587 11530 3841 5347 16960 16240 7142 28920 7906 4630 21450 8905 9271 13690 8643 13590 12670 10430 31730 8809 5562 8882 4298 10330 2436 19560 6199 5744 4797 18760 5940 5302 6460 7572 1495 1776 21570 31910 5264 4938 23020 4504 6667 38920 14250 14380 13790 5751 4605 5508 6691 14500 1583 4454 6665 4353 5301 4471 5496 7483 4893 8318 10660 13330 14290 21840 7092 7619 16260 8222 4964 5612 19240 14520 18380 4708 3563 20710 5285 15410 12980 10300 16640 4884 5322 2858 10330 9515 5056 2798 10960 6015 17270 7812 4001 953 27910 15400 5502 4720 4783 22310 24390 24220 21240 16910 6705 7594 5663 7748 4464 7874 6023 1137 8370 4107 3845 6063 13470 26850 16180 4751 7954 23540 6504 7782 23550 5736 4949 5999 9979 6327 5048 11750

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.