COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-14

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-06	2021-01-04	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	2021-01-06	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-01-09	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-06	12-21	12-23	12-27	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	2021-01-06	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-06	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-06	12-22	11-04	2021-01-08	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-04	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-06	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-06	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-06	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-27	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-22	12-20	2021-01-04	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-26	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	2021-01-04	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	77	477	588	191	59	326	133	112	108	232	422	1251	74	158	66	60	159	49	484	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	318	107	505	93	189	63	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	265	52	200	250	285	61	90	71	68	244	53	95	283	35	367	289	38	183	598	151	69	188	72	246	24	249	187	118	323	538	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	589	271	95	76	54	89	73	125	53	39	122	80	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	200	57	398	175	103	339	101	109	135	121	482	100	156	47	444	60	115	450	138	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	312	429	113	379	287	104	444	71	113	731	272	200	90	39	377	91	420	29	47	297	49	62	148	118	363	79	105	63	123	85	722	23	50	159	105	50	108	59	124	122	41	57	275	157	124	225	90	44	125	126	109	160	123	201	105	174	621	87	82	171	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	37	26	163	450	42	82	404	65	130	243	209	245	167	98	107	101	69	180	27	43	85	82	96	79	108	81	67	102	114	245	294	456	131	151	222	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	201	106	322	189	181	125	55	107	47	144	315	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	557	152	92	107	85	258	324	451	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	263	83	149	432	106	140	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	49	50	49	55	49	68	55	53	50	53	124	49	53	48	34	46	49	54	47	49	49	42	39	41	91	48	55	108	54	49	49	63	49	48	51	55	50	54	39	46	49	103	55	50	51	68	49	55	55	41	54	47	50	54	55	41	55	55	41	50	49	48	47	54	54	46	48	49	49	55	51	55	55	43	36	123	49	69	50	49	52	47	52	55	104	50	106	49	47	48	55	51	54	51	62	54	39	55	53	49	58	48	41	49	50	55	49	54	55	49	55	49	54	55	55	55	54	49	49	54	54	63	49	53	48	55	47	49	39	52	51	55	44	48	49	54	48	48	51	109	55	49	49	47	39	49	48	55	49	49	77	49	49	54	55	41	46	39	54	102	37	55	55	55	54	51	54	50	48	47	41	102	48	68	49	112	50	55	102	55	46	103	55	39	49	55	44	47	55	49	48	49	49	39	39	47	39	47	55	39	39	54	48	55	49	48	63	45	63	120	46	49	49	51	18	48	47	47	42	55	49	47	52	49	46	51	49	55	54	55	48	50	51	41	54	97	52	54	56	41	48	49	54	55	62	48	50	55	50	51	106	54	48	55	105	55	53	54	49	55	69	51	48	46	53	41	41	49	55	50	55	55	64	53	46	55	54	48	54	50	55	109	48	49	58	51	55	55	54	55	49	51	56	63	48	69	54	49	49	48	47	54	54	48	49	54	49	44	48	46	55	46	50	48
Last total	2759	4599	8019	7519	8602	9410	10919	3662	22524	29000	16244	3982	17048	7613	7097	7837	12641	21494	93173	6305	16725	8617	5412	23272	4211	24014	6654	42752	10339	6069	26961	6641	13730	28724	5644	23543	5820	8832	6382	9366	15701	12830	5233	13425	6544	9677	7932	8027	14678	11048	12188	3528	8571	19103	19968	5594	4582	4005	7137	10529	2883	4684	13333	2432	34818	21593	2598	7364	29618	7940	6620	9904	3830	18473	2577	20154	10795	7511	24613	29009	2746	3797	4596	7832	5736	4130	16125	8645	8194	6375	5253	2877	6984	28848	12052	4976	6285	4695	4820	4570	7825	2911	4360	12775	7296	6130	3544	9888	5193	21429	6995	11319	3910	12248	4599	20035	7561	7059	19447	4057	8064	5994	6627	26018	6344	7881	4511	24610	5398	5382	23127	6907	7245	6898	6559	14382	8481	5297	6904	16775	11550	29670	16608	23222	8708	55161	32493	4667	20966	6005	6366	46117	18151	12297	3624	2452	48409	7175	25261	2351	3129	15364	2033	3047	6439	11301	18533	4159	5722	6355	21836	7748	33998	1883	5520	7343	5985	5003	7766	2850	9416	11203	3737	5171	16565	15910	6966	28163	7703	4547	21038	8771	9136	13243	8543	13331	12366	10263	31468	8579	5397	8767	4224	10193	2375	19182	6125	5661	4763	18242	5769	5190	6252	7449	1405	1727	21051	31126	5195	4799	22600	4415	6612	38331	13782	14140	13457	5626	4539	5363	6503	14136	1564	4299	6531	4286	5220	4417	5405	7265	4805	8122	10477	13001	14104	21647	6965	7481	15837	8053	4871	5478	18727	14179	18063	4594	3446	20186	5229	15191	12853	10108	16278	4758	5262	2784	10022	9318	4939	2749	10880	5941	17124	7765	3873	944	27757	15171	5436	4656	4697	21750	23600	23963	20949	16574	6569	7499	5583	7653	4316	7721	5868	1125	8229	4013	3782	5927	13335	26402	15660	4652	7825	23151	6359	7679	23089	5584	4886	5829	9748	6225	4917	11599
Last daily increment	3	16	30	21	38	4	38	8	22	45	47	15	20	17	20	19	38	36	210	17	17	14	12	83	15	61	9	128	7	17	41	10	16	53	7	23	9	5	23	16	61	38	6	10	20	4	18	12	32	44	20	3	20	43	36	23	7	9	20	22	12	24	22	2	82	58	6	21	37	11	24	13	13	56	6	78	32	7	61	61	6	4	5	15	3	22	39	25	18	7	12	4	7	29	14	6	28	3	13	13	14	9	9	33	21	2	11	9	10	23	9	27	3	12	6	24	10	15	31	4	17	4	14	25	17	15	8	39	19	5	43	7	7	7	2	9	9	23	11	35	18	100	40	21	18	132	99	3	19	22	11	91	32	15	3	11	121	37	25	4	6	27	3	2	8	43	33	5	21	21	48	16	29	2	15	34	15	6	22	3	26	37	17	32	48	38	17	61	38	15	41	11	9	54	10	30	28	19	33	21	24	12	8	13	3	38	14	12	2	57	11	9	13	16	4	4	50	73	7	11	37	11	3	77	50	47	33	11	7	12	19	37	0	18	17	10	9	9	5	16	4	20	23	40	22	19	10	16	52	13	13	8	63	41	41	15	4	61	10	18	7	14	48	14	2	6	27	24	9	3	4	9	21	15	15	2	9	26	5	11	10	95	44	19	18	35	17	8	2	9	14	20	16	2	26	5	4	2	10	69	53	17	7	52	13	8	45	6	4	13	21	13	19	13
Last week	31	110	146	184	278	89	184	44	273	324	353	85	122	127	160	116	251	200	1867	145	234	160	134	538	113	488	100	853	147	167	368	61	152	559	91	209	92	70	142	94	321	305	68	121	174	60	117	78	276	271	125	57	99	371	387	161	92	70	163	142	115	192	212	33	686	491	28	170	316	116	160	102	85	395	61	501	251	54	498	496	59	72	75	97	68	132	336	235	174	76	136	36	68	234	67	60	179	86	111	165	71	61	87	198	163	74	78	108	115	207	93	182	68	195	123	203	93	125	259	58	126	63	97	205	132	95	92	399	148	72	340	166	97	116	98	120	114	194	167	322	168	632	304	281	176	1041	742	57	194	116	97	758	409	105	41	64	824	221	190	42	56	226	42	34	91	350	292	62	144	216	267	104	323	18	135	147	108	118	139	46	143	287	93	194	319	287	159	600	199	69	345	124	97	414	104	268	250	149	264	231	133	100	69	123	50	309	70	71	27	480	135	77	184	105	39	39	442	715	56	109	361	81	57	559	385	261	301	105	67	95	166	323	14	133	130	86	87	56	70	154	84	166	174	294	168	182	123	121	389	155	87	126	452	315	312	88	93	456	57	198	124	172	375	122	59	47	262	229	121	48	81	75	162	50	103	9	173	262	66	69	69	533	507	222	236	295	107	80	75	75	125	160	124	10	154	87	45	105	127	477	477	101	86	319	103	86	451	124	55	143	205	103	120	136
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-24	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		163	98	54	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165	29		55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65									43		52				59									360	152		86	540	254					529					611	61								73					391				51									58	68			610			256				82		101			95	43		41	42		196		64			44		67				237	232	85		183			435	113						66								24	70		76							118				182	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	62		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106	70	9							53	7		18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	23				18									11		14				21									94	20		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14									16	6			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	20		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								8			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18		16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-15 to 2021-02-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-14	2759	4599	8019	7519	8602	9410	10919	3662	22524	29000	16244	3982	17048	7613	7097	7837	12641	21494	93173	6305	16725	8617	5412	23272	4211	24014	6654	42752	10339	6069	26961	6641	13730	28724	5644	23543	5820	8832	6382	9366	15701	12830	5233	13425	6544	9677	7932	8027	14678	11048	12188	3528	8571	19103	19968	5594	4582	4005	7137	10529	2883	4684	13333	2432	34818	21593	2598	7364	29618	7940	6620	9904	3830	18473	2577	20154	10795	7511	24613	29009	2746	3797	4596	7832	5736	4130	16125	8645	8194	6375	5253	2877	6984	28848	12052	4976	6285	4695	4820	4570	7825	2911	4360	12775	7296	6130	3544	9888	5193	21429	6995	11319	3910	12248	4599	20035	7561	7059	19447	4057	8064	5994	6627	26018	6344	7881	4511	24610	5398	5382	23127	6907	7245	6898	6559	14382	8481	5297	6904	16775	11550	29670	16608	23222	8708	55161	32493	4667	20966	6005	6366	46117	18151	12297	3624	2452	48409	7175	25261	2351	3129	15364	2033	3047	6439	11301	18533	4159	5722	6355	21836	7748	33998	1883	5520	7343	5985	5003	7766	2850	9416	11203	3737	5171	16565	15910	6966	28163	7703	4547	21038	8771	9136	13243	8543	13331	12366	10263	31468	8579	5397	8767	4224	10193	2375	19182	6125	5661	4763	18242	5769	5190	6252	7449	1405	1727	21051	31126	5195	4799	22600	4415	6612	38331	13782	14140	13457	5626	4539	5363	6503	14136	1564	4299	6531	4286	5220	4417	5405	7265	4805	8122	10477	13001	14104	21647	6965	7481	15837	8053	4871	5478	18727	14179	18063	4594	3446	20186	5229	15191	12853	10108	16278	4758	5262	2784	10022	9318	4939	2749	10880	5941	17124	7765	3873	944	27757	15171	5436	4656	4697	21750	23600	23963	20949	16574	6569	7499	5583	7653	4316	7721	5868	1125	8229	4013	3782	5927	13335	26402	15660	4652	7825	23151	6359	7679	23089	5584	4886	5829	9748	6225	4917	11599
2021-02-15	2765	4639	8045	7576	8700	9432	10960	3670	22560	29080	16300	3989	17080	7639	7184	7878	12660	21530	94190	6331	16820	8636	5432	23450	4233	24140	6661	43010	10370	6109	27130	6651	13800	28910	5679	23570	5843	8840	6441	9443	15780	12900	5238	13450	6560	9705	7952	8039	14690	11120	12200	3539	8604	19280	20120	5621	4643	4009	7166	10550	2899	4719	13390	2439	34870	21840	2600	7403	29670	7960	6673	9910	3850	18520	2585	20250	10810	7524	24690	29120	2759	3809	4656	7848	5753	4152	16170	8738	8201	6388	5287	2886	7000	28880	12070	4990	6317	4703	4853	4644	7853	2921	4366	12810	7370	6150	3583	9910	5230	21480	7001	11350	3924	12280	4614	20060	7580	7066	19480	4069	8077	6016	6647	26050	6366	7926	4531	24690	5410	5401	23290	6961	7307	6929	6565	14400	8500	5333	6938	16860	11580	29860	16660	23280	8735	55480	32740	4685	21010	6031	6377	46270	18230	12320	3626	2480	48570	7242	25290	2360	3145	15380	2044	3053	6452	11400	18580	4167	5732	6409	21870	7783	34080	1884	5543	7365	6001	5024	7790	2850	9441	11250	3754	5199	16600	16020	6980	28270	7719	4552	21150	8779	9209	13470	8564	13380	12410	10400	31530	8619	5425	8812	4228	10210	2384	19310	6156	5675	4774	18350	5795	5207	6280	7490	1421	1733	21200	31460	5207	4845	22630	4423	6615	38440	13920	14210	13510	5673	4543	5379	6559	14240	1567	4352	6555	4312	5232	4425	5419	7298	4841	8181	10510	13070	14110	21680	6972	7490	15940	8100	4898	5498	18860	14230	18090	4636	3463	20280	5240	15200	12920	10120	16330	4786	5273	2819	10090	9332	4960	2756	10900	5955	17170	7788	3892	945	27780	15230	5443	4661	4718	21860	24030	24010	20970	16670	6591	7513	5588	7658	4338	7732	5884	1126	8245	4026	3793	5934	13400	26560	15760	4669	7890	23340	6388	7699	23280	5607	4920	5903	9810	6240	4941	11630
2021-02-16	2770	4667	8067	7612	8741	9434	10970	3678	22600	29150	16360	3995	17080	7665	7219	7905	12680	21560	94550	6357	16860	8646	5453	23560	4256	24160	6667	43130	10390	6131	27220	6661	13810	29030	5692	23590	5867	8850	6474	9458	15840	12960	5244	13470	6583	9713	7975	8050	14710	11160	12200	3550	8635	19340	20200	5647	4655	4014	7196	10570	2915	4754	13410	2445	34920	21920	2602	7431	29710	7980	6696	9916	3871	18530	2593	20320	10830	7538	24720	29200	2772	3821	4674	7862	5770	4173	16200	8789	8217	6395	5312	2895	7016	28920	12080	5004	6350	4712	4885	4677	7853	2932	4373	12850	7399	6150	3602	9920	5252	21530	7008	11390	3939	12320	4630	20090	7600	7074	19500	4081	8089	6018	6667	26070	6388	7948	4551	24770	5422	5411	23370	6971	7328	6943	6572	14430	8519	5370	6974	16910	11600	29960	16720	23330	8743	55630	32880	4704	21050	6057	6388	46350	18300	12320	3630	2491	48700	7265	25320	2370	3145	15400	2055	3058	6469	11440	18630	4174	5744	6449	21910	7798	34160	1886	5567	7386	6019	5044	7814	2854	9441	11300	3771	5228	16640	16070	6992	28390	7730	4557	21210	8788	9230	13570	8585	13420	12420	10430	31580	8658	5454	8835	4233	10230	2393	19360	6166	5688	4776	18420	5821	5224	6309	7529	1437	1739	21270	31600	5218	4864	22650	4432	6619	38490	14000	14250	13540	5682	4547	5395	6590	14300	1570	4373	6578	4329	5243	4433	5434	7332	4856	8192	10540	13090	14130	21720	6979	7501	16000	8122	4911	5517	18940	14260	18110	4653	3480	20360	5252	15210	12940	10130	16380	4802	5285	2828	10130	9345	4980	2763	10910	5968	17180	7797	3912	945	27800	15270	5449	4665	4739	21940	24170	24060	20980	16730	6614	7527	5593	7664	4361	7742	5900	1128	8249	4039	3804	5943	13400	26640	15850	4685	7906	23390	6417	7706	23350	5630	4930	5941	9870	6261	4957	11650
2021-02-17	2776	4682	8081	7651	8790	9444	10980	3686	22640	29220	16420	4001	17090	7690	7242	7937	12700	21590	94870	6382	16900	8654	5473	23650	4273	24180	6674	43290	10420	6161	27280	6670	13810	29140	5706	23610	5890	8859	6501	9476	15890	13010	5249	13490	6605	9722	8000	8061	14730	11210	12210	3561	8666	19410	20280	5673	4668	4019	7225	10590	2931	4788	13430	2452	34970	22000	2604	7453	29750	8000	6726	9922	3891	18550	2601	20390	10850	7551	24750	29250	2785	3833	4687	7877	5787	4195	16250	8825	8236	6398	5330	2904	7032	28950	12100	5019	6382	4720	4917	4717	7853	2942	4380	12890	7430	6155	3619	9940	5270	21570	7015	11420	3953	12360	4646	20120	7618	7082	19530	4092	8102	6018	6686	26100	6410	7972	4571	24840	5434	5418	23430	6993	7341	6958	6578	14450	8537	5405	7008	16970	11630	30060	16780	23380	8748	55800	33000	4722	21090	6082	6400	46400	18380	12320	3633	2501	48810	7294	25350	2379	3152	15410	2066	3064	6476	11510	18680	4182	5757	6486	21940	7815	34230	1887	5590	7407	6035	5065	7837	2857	9442	11350	3788	5265	16680	16130	7005	28500	7741	4562	21270	8797	9246	13700	8605	13450	12430	10490	31640	8697	5481	8846	4237	10250	2402	19420	6179	5702	4781	18510	5847	5240	6336	7567	1452	1746	21330	31730	5229	4881	22670	4440	6623	38560	14070	14290	13570	5702	4552	5411	6607	14360	1573	4393	6601	4353	5254	4441	5448	7365	4878	8213	10560	13120	14140	21750	6987	7512	16070	8154	4927	5536	19020	14300	18130	4669	3497	20440	5264	15230	12960	10140	16440	4816	5296	2838	10160	9358	5000	2770	10930	5981	17200	7804	3931	946	27820	15300	5451	4670	4758	22010	24300	24100	21000	16790	6636	7540	5598	7669	4383	7752	5916	1129	8264	4053	3814	5952	13420	26710	15940	4701	7919	23430	6445	7712	23400	5654	4939	5975	9930	6278	4968	11670
2021-02-18	2782	4708	8108	7679	8833	9444	10980	3694	22680	29300	16480	4007	17120	7716	7274	7955	12720	21620	95290	6408	16930	8664	5494	23740	4289	24200	6679	43440	10440	6175	27370	6680	13830	29230	5722	23640	5914	8869	6530	9500	15950	13060	5254	13510	6621	9728	8028	8073	14750	11260	12210	3572	8697	19470	20340	5699	4680	4025	7254	10610	2947	4823	13440	2459	35020	22100	2605	7486	29790	8020	6756	9929	3911	18580	2609	20490	10870	7564	24760	29340	2798	3845	4699	7890	5805	4216	16290	8864	8252	6416	5362	2913	7048	28990	12120	5033	6414	4728	4948	4739	7853	2952	4386	12930	7463	6164	3636	9960	5288	21620	7021	11460	3967	12390	4662	20150	7637	7090	19560	4104	8118	6020	6706	26130	6432	7992	4591	24920	5446	5426	23500	7015	7354	6978	6584	14470	8555	5441	7044	17020	11650	30170	16830	23430	8764	55990	33130	4740	21130	6107	6411	46460	18450	12330	3636	2510	48960	7335	25380	2388	3158	15430	2077	3070	6492	11570	18730	4189	5778	6521	21970	7826	34300	1888	5613	7429	6053	5086	7861	2863	9461	11390	3805	5306	16720	16170	7017	28610	7750	4567	21330	8805	9262	13800	8626	13490	12460	10530	31690	8736	5509	8858	4242	10270	2411	19470	6191	5715	4784	18590	5873	5257	6364	7605	1468	1752	21410	31860	5240	4894	22700	4449	6628	38640	14130	14330	13610	5718	4556	5427	6638	14420	1576	4418	6624	4377	5265	4448	5462	7398	4896	8239	10590	13140	14150	21790	6994	7524	16130	8189	4938	5555	19090	14340	18160	4679	3513	20510	5275	15240	12990	10150	16500	4840	5307	2843	10190	9370	5020	2777	10950	5994	17230	7807	3951	946	27840	15340	5452	4675	4777	22090	24440	24150	21010	16840	6659	7553	5603	7674	4405	7761	5932	1131	8282	4067	3824	5962	13450	26790	16040	4717	7927	23480	6474	7712	23490	5679	4950	5997	9990	6291	4982	11700
2021-02-19	2787	4745	8153	7716	8884	9450	11000	3702	22710	29370	16540	4013	17140	7741	7299	7974	12740	21660	95620	6434	16980	8681	5515	23830	4303	24230	6685	43570	10470	6222	27470	6689	13850	29340	5742	23660	5937	8880	6570	9523	15990	13110	5259	13530	6657	9742	8045	8084	14770	11300	12220	3583	8728	19530	20420	5725	4704	4030	7284	10640	2963	4858	13480	2465	35070	22190	2606	7517	29840	8041	6776	9935	3931	18610	2618	20570	10880	7577	24780	29430	2811	3856	4710	7904	5823	4237	16330	8909	8295	6448	5402	2922	7063	29020	12130	5048	6446	4737	4980	4764	7860	2962	4393	12970	7494	6169	3649	9970	5306	21670	7028	11490	3982	12430	4678	20170	7656	7097	19590	4116	8149	6030	6726	26150	6454	8017	4611	24990	5458	5444	23560	7030	7378	7003	6591	14490	8574	5477	7081	17070	11680	30270	16890	23480	8771	56190	33250	4758	21160	6133	6423	46510	18520	12340	3640	2522	49080	7372	25410	2398	3158	15450	2088	3075	6519	11630	18780	4196	5783	6560	22010	7850	34370	1890	5637	7450	6070	5106	7884	2879	9473	11440	3822	5333	16770	16210	7028	28720	7757	4572	21390	8814	9280	13880	8646	13530	12480	10570	31750	8775	5537	8872	4247	10280	2419	19520	6201	5728	4788	18660	5900	5274	6393	7644	1483	1758	21500	31990	5251	4908	22720	4458	6633	38700	14190	14390	13630	5747	4560	5443	6664	14480	1579	4439	6646	4392	5276	4455	5477	7432	4912	8253	10620	13160	14160	21820	7001	7535	16200	8214	4950	5574	19160	14390	18180	4694	3530	20610	5287	15250	13020	10160	16560	4863	5319	2851	10240	9383	5039	2784	10960	6006	17240	7818	3970	946	27870	15380	5460	4679	4797	22180	24590	24200	21030	16890	6681	7566	5608	7678	4428	7770	5949	1132	8300	4080	3835	5971	13480	26870	16130	4733	7947	23540	6503	7720	23550	5703	4961	6034	10040	6308	5010	11720
2021-02-20	2793	4755	8158	7736	8908	9450	11000	3710	22750	29440	16590	4019	17160	7767	7322	7983	12760	21690	95810	6460	17010	8681	5536	23870	4317	24230	6691	43650	10490	6231	27510	6698	13850	29400	5755	23690	5961	8890	6589	9534	16030	13140	5265	13560	6669	9746	8056	8095	14780	11330	12220	3593	8759	19560	20450	5751	4709	4036	7313	10660	2979	4892	13480	2472	35130	22240	2608	7537	29880	8061	6789	9941	3952	18610	2626	20630	10900	7591	24780	29450	2824	3868	4710	7918	5841	4259	16350	8927	8306	6448	5417	2931	7079	29050	12150	5063	6478	4745	5011	4776	7860	2972	4400	13010	7503	6169	3663	9990	5322	21720	7035	11520	3996	12470	4694	20200	7675	7105	19610	4129	8161	6030	6746	26180	6476	8032	4631	25070	5470	5446	23600	7044	7385	7010	6597	14510	8592	5513	7117	17100	11700	30340	16940	23530	8772	56310	33330	4776	21200	6159	6434	46520	18600	12340	3644	2526	49140	7373	25440	2407	3158	15470	2100	3081	6529	11670	18830	4204	5787	6583	22040	7852	34440	1891	5661	7471	6088	5127	7908	2882	9473	11490	3839	5357	16810	16240	7040	28830	7767	4576	21430	8822	9280	13950	8666	13550	12480	10590	31810	8814	5565	8872	4252	10300	2428	19550	6210	5742	4789	18710	5926	5291	6421	7683	1498	1764	21540	32060	5262	4919	22740	4467	6638	38730	14220	14410	13640	5753	4565	5460	6680	14520	1582	4451	6669	4405	5287	4463	5492	7466	4915	8257	10650	13160	14170	21860	7008	7547	16240	8224	4959	5593	19200	14420	18200	4703	3547	20650	5299	15260	13040	10170	16600	4874	5330	2857	10260	9396	5059	2791	10980	6019	17250	7825	3990	947	27890	15410	5460	4684	4816	22220	24650	24240	21040	16930	6704	7579	5613	7683	4450	7780	5965	1134	8310	4094	3846	5981	13490	26920	16230	4748	7955	23570	6532	7723	23580	5728	4963	6050	10100	6321	5026	11750
2021-02-21	2799	4764	8174	7762	8942	9453	11020	3718	22790	29510	16650	4025	17170	7793	7347	8003	12780	21720	95960	6486	17030	8693	5557	23940	4330	24270	6696	43770	10520	6246	27560	6707	13850	29450	5763	23710	5985	8901	6605	9548	16080	13180	5270	13580	6689	9753	8069	8106	14800	11370	12230	3604	8790	19600	20480	5776	4720	4041	7343	10680	2995	4927	13500	2479	35180	22300	2609	7554	29920	8082	6810	9948	3972	18650	2634	20700	10920	7604	24850	29500	2838	3880	4717	7932	5859	4280	16380	8951	8321	6448	5422	2940	7095	29090	12160	5078	6510	4753	5043	4793	7860	2982	4406	13040	7526	6171	3674	10010	5337	21770	7042	11560	4011	12510	4710	20230	7694	7113	19640	4141	8175	6030	6766	26210	6499	8043	4651	25140	5482	5450	23650	7052	7396	7020	6603	14530	8611	5549	7153	17140	11730	30430	17000	23580	8783	56440	33430	4794	21240	6184	6446	46630	18670	12350	3647	2534	49250	7401	25480	2416	3161	15480	2111	3087	6533	11720	18870	4211	5808	6604	22070	7863	34510	1893	5684	7492	6105	5148	7931	2883	9489	11530	3856	5380	16850	16280	7052	28950	7801	4581	21470	8831	9295	13990	8687	13570	12510	10600	31860	8853	5593	8883	4256	10320	2437	19590	6222	5755	4792	18760	5952	5308	6450	7722	1513	1771	21600	32130	5274	4937	22760	4475	6642	38790	14280	14440	13670	5761	4569	5476	6698	14560	1585	4468	6692	4410	5298	4470	5507	7500	4923	8277	10670	13210	14180	21890	7015	7558	16300	8236	4970	5611	19260	14450	18220	4716	3564	20700	5311	15270	13040	10180	16640	4888	5342	2864	10290	9408	5079	2798	10990	6032	17280	7839	4009	947	27910	15430	5465	4688	4836	22300	24690	24290	21060	16960	6726	7592	5618	7688	4473	7789	5982	1135	8333	4107	3856	5990	13500	26980	16320	4764	7968	23620	6560	7734	23630	5752	4971	6062	10160	6333	5042	11770

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-15 to 2021-02-21

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-14	2759	4599	8019	7519	8602	9410	10919	3662	22524	29000	16244	3982	17048	7613	7097	7837	12641	21494	93173	6305	16725	8617	5412	23272	4211	24014	6654	42752	10339	6069	26961	6641	13730	28724	5644	23543	5820	8832	6382	9366	15701	12830	5233	13425	6544	9677	7932	8027	14678	11048	12188	3528	8571	19103	19968	5594	4582	4005	7137	10529	2883	4684	13333	2432	34818	21593	2598	7364	29618	7940	6620	9904	3830	18473	2577	20154	10795	7511	24613	29009	2746	3797	4596	7832	5736	4130	16125	8645	8194	6375	5253	2877	6984	28848	12052	4976	6285	4695	4820	4570	7825	2911	4360	12775	7296	6130	3544	9888	5193	21429	6995	11319	3910	12248	4599	20035	7561	7059	19447	4057	8064	5994	6627	26018	6344	7881	4511	24610	5398	5382	23127	6907	7245	6898	6559	14382	8481	5297	6904	16775	11550	29670	16608	23222	8708	55161	32493	4667	20966	6005	6366	46117	18151	12297	3624	2452	48409	7175	25261	2351	3129	15364	2033	3047	6439	11301	18533	4159	5722	6355	21836	7748	33998	1883	5520	7343	5985	5003	7766	2850	9416	11203	3737	5171	16565	15910	6966	28163	7703	4547	21038	8771	9136	13243	8543	13331	12366	10263	31468	8579	5397	8767	4224	10193	2375	19182	6125	5661	4763	18242	5769	5190	6252	7449	1405	1727	21051	31126	5195	4799	22600	4415	6612	38331	13782	14140	13457	5626	4539	5363	6503	14136	1564	4299	6531	4286	5220	4417	5405	7265	4805	8122	10477	13001	14104	21647	6965	7481	15837	8053	4871	5478	18727	14179	18063	4594	3446	20186	5229	15191	12853	10108	16278	4758	5262	2784	10022	9318	4939	2749	10880	5941	17124	7765	3873	944	27757	15171	5436	4656	4697	21750	23600	23963	20949	16574	6569	7499	5583	7653	4316	7721	5868	1125	8229	4013	3782	5927	13335	26402	15660	4652	7825	23151	6359	7679	23089	5584	4886	5829	9748	6225	4917	11599
2021-02-15	2763	4616	8040	7551	8663	9421	10950	3668	22560	29050	16300	3994	17060	7633	7131	7864	12670	21520	93480	6325	16770	8640	5436	23380	4231	24100	6669	42890	10370	6092	27010	6649	13760	28820	5654	23570	5838	8841	6406	9383	15760	12890	5244	13440	6560	9690	7948	8042	14710	11100	12200	3536	8587	19180	20030	5617	4599	4014	7168	10550	2901	4713	13370	2437	34940	21690	2603	7392	29660	7955	6652	9920	3846	18540	2584	20240	10830	7520	24680	29100	2756	3805	4619	7844	5748	4152	16170	8689	8211	6386	5273	2883	6995	28870	12060	4986	6319	4703	4838	4609	7841	2922	4371	12800	7324	6138	3562	9901	5209	21460	7009	11350	3920	12270	4614	20060	7573	7080	19480	4066	8080	6001	6646	26050	6363	7894	4526	24670	5419	5395	23190	6937	7262	6914	6568	14400	8498	5328	6934	16830	11570	29800	16650	23270	8740	55340	32630	4676	20990	6026	6378	46220	18210	12310	3628	2467	48550	7213	25290	2358	3136	15400	2040	3051	6449	11360	18570	4165	5739	6413	21880	7765	34040	1885	5537	7370	6003	5018	7788	2851	9438	11250	3752	5197	16610	15970	6985	28260	7749	4559	21100	8786	9162	13340	8552	13370	12400	10290	31500	8611	5419	8788	4233	10210	2382	19250	6138	5672	4769	18330	5790	5202	6279	7464	1416	1735	21130	31250	5204	4820	22650	4425	6618	38420	13850	14180	13500	5642	4547	5377	6539	14190	1566	4323	6551	4296	5232	4423	5417	7295	4820	8160	10500	13040	14130	21670	6979	7499	15900	8076	4886	5494	18800	14230	18110	4613	3462	20260	5239	15220	12870	10130	16340	4776	5269	2798	10060	9343	4953	2757	10890	5952	17150	7772	3889	945	27780	15220	5438	4665	4712	21850	23710	24010	20990	16620	6587	7510	5591	7667	4334	7740	5893	1126	8252	4026	3789	5939	13360	26470	15750	4669	7844	23220	6382	7700	23170	5604	4899	5853	9777	6244	4935	11620
2021-02-16	2769	4636	8060	7585	8708	9432	10990	3672	22610	29090	16360	4007	17070	7655	7164	7887	12720	21550	93780	6350	16810	8668	5460	23480	4251	24170	6687	43030	10400	6118	27070	6656	13780	28930	5665	23600	5857	8855	6425	9395	15810	12940	5257	13460	6584	9698	7967	8056	14760	11140	12220	3547	8597	19240	20090	5640	4614	4024	7199	10580	2919	4748	13420	2443	35050	21770	2606	7420	29700	7974	6677	9930	3861	18600	2594	20310	10870	7531	24760	29180	2768	3816	4638	7855	5764	4173	16210	8737	8230	6395	5297	2890	7009	28900	12070	4999	6352	4712	4856	4645	7847	2933	4387	12840	7354	6149	3573	9912	5227	21500	7027	11380	3935	12300	4633	20090	7588	7101	19520	4077	8098	6011	6666	26080	6386	7908	4544	24730	5439	5408	23250	6961	7282	6928	6580	14410	8517	5364	6970	16880	11600	29900	16700	23310	8767	55500	32770	4685	21010	6049	6389	46360	18270	12330	3635	2479	48690	7244	25310	2367	3144	15430	2051	3056	6462	11410	18610	4173	5756	6453	21920	7783	34090	1888	5560	7392	6023	5038	7812	2857	9455	11300	3767	5223	16670	16020	7011	28370	7778	4571	21160	8803	9182	13400	8563	13410	12450	10320	31540	8644	5442	8814	4244	10230	2391	19300	6147	5684	4773	18420	5815	5219	6310	7484	1426	1741	21200	31370	5215	4841	22700	4438	6626	38510	13920	14220	13540	5656	4558	5399	6569	14240	1569	4345	6573	4306	5248	4431	5430	7330	4833	8183	10530	13090	14160	21700	6998	7519	15960	8099	4900	5513	18880	14280	18160	4629	3480	20330	5248	15250	12890	10160	16400	4795	5278	2810	10110	9371	4972	2764	10900	5963	17170	7777	3909	947	27810	15260	5448	4677	4729	21940	23820	24050	21030	16680	6608	7524	5603	7680	4355	7762	5913	1128	8266	4039	3800	5961	13370	26550	15820	4686	7863	23270	6403	7716	23240	5629	4907	5882	9811	6263	4955	11640
2021-02-17	2774	4654	8079	7616	8757	9449	11020	3677	22650	29140	16410	4019	17090	7676	7195	7913	12760	21580	94060	6374	16850	8695	5488	23570	4268	24240	6705	43180	10430	6143	27110	6664	13800	29030	5676	23630	5875	8868	6445	9408	15860	13000	5270	13480	6610	9704	7986	8069	14800	11180	12230	3559	8608	19310	20150	5662	4633	4035	7224	10600	2937	4781	13440	2450	35170	21840	2610	7444	29750	7993	6705	9950	3876	18660	2604	20370	10920	7541	24830	29250	2780	3827	4653	7865	5781	4195	16260	8776	8249	6403	5317	2897	7022	28930	12080	5012	6382	4720	4875	4689	7852	2947	4401	12880	7385	6160	3583	9923	5241	21540	7046	11400	3950	12340	4654	20120	7603	7122	19560	4089	8115	6019	6685	26100	6410	7922	4562	24780	5461	5421	23310	6992	7298	6942	6591	14430	8534	5399	7007	16930	11630	30010	16740	23360	8789	55680	32900	4695	21040	6073	6400	46470	18340	12350	3642	2488	48810	7279	25330	2375	3153	15470	2062	3061	6472	11480	18650	4182	5775	6488	21960	7801	34140	1890	5579	7414	6044	5058	7835	2865	9476	11340	3782	5251	16730	16070	7037	28480	7801	4583	21220	8827	9202	13490	8574	13450	12490	10340	31580	8676	5466	8830	4255	10250	2400	19370	6157	5696	4780	18500	5839	5236	6340	7503	1441	1748	21270	31490	5226	4861	22760	4451	6635	38590	13990	14250	13590	5674	4567	5421	6594	14300	1572	4366	6591	4317	5259	4439	5448	7358	4848	8214	10560	13140	14190	21730	7018	7539	16030	8125	4915	5533	18950	14330	18200	4646	3496	20400	5254	15290	12910	10190	16450	4812	5287	2819	10150	9399	4987	2770	10920	5973	17190	7783	3929	948	27830	15290	5459	4688	4740	22020	23920	24080	21080	16720	6628	7538	5614	7699	4377	7784	5939	1129	8289	4053	3810	5981	13390	26610	15890	4700	7881	23330	6425	7732	23290	5656	4914	5907	9844	6278	4970	11660
2021-02-18	2779	4674	8100	7641	8801	9460	11050	3682	22690	29190	16470	4030	17100	7696	7227	7929	12810	21600	94400	6398	16880	8722	5514	23670	4284	24310	6723	43320	10460	6167	27160	6672	13830	29120	5690	23660	5892	8882	6465	9426	15910	13050	5283	13500	6630	9709	8001	8082	14850	11230	12250	3569	8617	19380	20220	5685	4649	4046	7253	10630	2954	4814	13470	2457	35290	21930	2613	7468	29790	8011	6733	9960	3891	18720	2613	20470	10970	7552	24890	29340	2792	3839	4669	7877	5798	4219	16310	8816	8269	6419	5342	2904	7036	28970	12090	5027	6414	4729	4893	4712	7862	2954	4415	12920	7415	6174	3594	9934	5255	21580	7064	11430	3965	12370	4674	20150	7618	7145	19590	4099	8133	6031	6704	26130	6432	7934	4581	24840	5484	5434	23360	7024	7312	6963	6603	14440	8550	5434	7043	16980	11650	30120	16790	23400	8814	55850	33030	4705	21060	6096	6413	46590	18400	12370	3649	2498	48960	7321	25380	2384	3163	15510	2074	3066	6484	11540	18690	4191	5799	6522	22000	7817	34190	1893	5602	7438	6064	5078	7858	2871	9506	11390	3796	5280	16780	16110	7063	28590	7829	4595	21270	8846	9221	13550	8589	13490	12540	10370	31620	8709	5490	8847	4265	10270	2409	19410	6167	5708	4785	18580	5864	5252	6370	7520	1455	1755	21350	31600	5236	4878	22830	4464	6643	38680	14050	14280	13650	5688	4577	5441	6623	14350	1574	4389	6613	4329	5271	4447	5460	7389	4861	8250	10580	13180	14210	21760	7037	7560	16090	8153	4927	5552	19030	14380	18250	4658	3515	20480	5263	15320	12930	10210	16510	4834	5296	2828	10200	9428	5003	2778	10930	5984	17210	7785	3947	949	27850	15320	5468	4698	4754	22100	24030	24120	21120	16780	6647	7552	5628	7714	4398	7804	5963	1131	8311	4066	3818	6005	13420	26680	15960	4712	7899	23380	6446	7744	23370	5679	4924	5927	9877	6291	4985	11690
2021-02-19	2784	4695	8136	7673	8848	9478	11090	3687	22720	29240	16530	4041	17120	7718	7259	7943	12850	21630	94740	6423	16930	8750	5538	23770	4299	24400	6741	43470	10480	6197	27230	6679	13850	29220	5707	23690	5908	8896	6495	9449	15960	13090	5296	13520	6664	9720	8010	8096	14890	11260	12260	3580	8635	19460	20280	5708	4677	4060	7281	10660	2972	4854	13510	2463	35400	22030	2617	7489	29840	8030	6758	9980	3906	18800	2623	20540	11010	7562	24970	29410	2804	3852	4683	7885	5815	4240	16350	8866	8296	6442	5374	2911	7049	29010	12100	5039	6445	4738	4912	4739	7879	2969	4428	12950	7444	6189	3605	9945	5271	21620	7082	11460	3980	12400	4693	20190	7634	7165	19620	4109	8152	6049	6723	26160	6451	7949	4604	24900	5509	5447	23420	7054	7338	6985	6615	14460	8573	5470	7080	17030	11680	30230	16830	23450	8838	56050	33150	4715	21080	6120	6423	46720	18470	12400	3656	2511	49090	7366	25400	2393	3171	15550	2084	3071	6496	11600	18730	4200	5815	6553	22040	7843	34240	1896	5624	7460	6086	5098	7884	2885	9536	11440	3811	5304	16850	16160	7089	28700	7860	4606	21340	8868	9240	13600	8610	13530	12580	10390	31650	8743	5514	8865	4276	10300	2418	19470	6177	5720	4790	18650	5889	5268	6400	7535	1466	1762	21440	31730	5245	4898	22890	4476	6651	38770	14130	14320	13700	5717	4587	5472	6647	14400	1577	4416	6638	4337	5283	4456	5477	7422	4876	8277	10610	13230	14240	21790	7056	7581	16150	8180	4938	5572	19110	14430	18290	4678	3534	20580	5272	15360	12950	10240	16550	4850	5304	2838	10240	9457	5020	2785	10940	5994	17230	7795	3968	951	27880	15360	5482	4705	4765	22190	24170	24160	21160	16820	6667	7565	5641	7725	4420	7828	5994	1133	8334	4080	3828	6031	13450	26740	16050	4728	7918	23450	6471	7761	23440	5697	4933	5952	9910	6305	5010	11710
2021-02-20	2789	4713	8156	7695	8884	9490	11120	3691	22750	29270	16590	4052	17140	7737	7291	7951	12890	21650	95100	6447	16970	8776	5555	23850	4316	24460	6759	43600	10500	6219	27290	6686	13870	29300	5721	23720	5921	8910	6518	9469	16000	13140	5308	13540	6687	9726	8017	8107	14930	11300	12280	3589	8644	19520	20340	5731	4692	4070	7300	10680	2989	4886	13540	2470	35490	22110	2620	7508	29890	8047	6782	10000	3921	18850	2633	20600	11060	7573	25030	29460	2817	3861	4694	7894	5832	4254	16390	8903	8317	6449	5393	2918	7063	29040	12110	5051	6472	4746	4931	4760	7888	2977	4443	12990	7472	6205	3614	9956	5289	21660	7100	11480	3995	12430	4712	20210	7649	7183	19650	4122	8170	6065	6742	26180	6468	7966	4621	24960	5530	5456	23470	7086	7356	6998	6628	14480	8587	5506	7107	17070	11700	30330	16880	23480	8858	56200	33240	4727	21110	6144	6434	46820	18530	12420	3663	2517	49200	7400	25420	2402	3183	15590	2095	3076	6508	11660	18760	4209	5835	6579	22080	7858	34280	1898	5642	7479	6105	5119	7908	2892	9558	11480	3826	5325	16910	16200	7116	28810	7882	4618	21390	8890	9254	13660	8628	13560	12630	10410	31690	8778	5538	8873	4287	10310	2427	19520	6187	5732	4794	18710	5915	5286	6429	7559	1478	1769	21500	31830	5257	4917	22950	4490	6659	38850	14190	14350	13740	5736	4596	5489	6668	14450	1580	4434	6652	4346	5293	4463	5488	7452	4885	8293	10630	13270	14260	21820	7074	7600	16200	8200	4951	5592	19180	14480	18330	4693	3549	20640	5279	15390	12970	10270	16610	4868	5313	2849	10280	9486	5039	2792	10950	6005	17250	7804	3984	952	27890	15380	5492	4712	4774	22240	24290	24190	21210	16870	6686	7580	5652	7737	4442	7853	6009	1135	8354	4094	3838	6054	13460	26790	16120	4740	7936	23500	6488	7772	23500	5718	4941	5981	9944	6318	5030	11730
2021-02-21	2794	4731	8171	7713	8918	9505	11150	3696	22770	29290	16650	4067	17140	7756	7323	7960	12940	21670	95390	6472	17010	8808	5572	23950	4329	24520	6778	43750	10510	6239	27330	6695	13900	29370	5731	23750	5933	8924	6534	9487	16050	13190	5319	13560	6710	9732	8022	8118	14980	11340	12290	3598	8652	19590	20400	5754	4712	4079	7325	10710	3005	4918	13570	2477	35570	22190	2624	7521	29930	8063	6806	10010	3935	18910	2643	20660	11110	7584	25110	29520	2829	3870	4706	7901	5849	4269	16440	8943	8334	6451	5408	2925	7077	29060	12120	5061	6500	4755	4950	4786	7901	2987	4454	13040	7504	6215	3622	9967	5301	21690	7117	11510	4010	12470	4730	20240	7665	7202	19670	4131	8188	6074	6760	26210	6483	7976	4639	25010	5550	5462	23520	7113	7375	7007	6640	14500	8597	5543	7136	17120	11730	30420	16930	23510	8867	56350	33340	4739	21130	6168	6445	46960	18580	12450	3669	2524	49320	7436	25440	2411	3190	15630	2108	3081	6518	11710	18800	4218	5855	6600	22130	7875	34300	1901	5660	7501	6124	5139	7931	2893	9587	11530	3841	5347	16960	16240	7142	28920	7906	4630	21450	8905	9271	13690	8643	13590	12670	10430	31730	8809	5562	8882	4298	10330	2436	19560	6199	5744	4797	18760	5940	5302	6460	7572	1495	1776	21570	31910	5264	4938	23020	4504	6667	38920	14250	14380	13790	5751	4605	5508	6691	14500	1583	4454	6665	4353	5301	4471	5496	7483	4893	8318	10660	13330	14290	21840	7092	7619	16260	8222	4964	5612	19240	14520	18380	4708	3563	20710	5285	15410	12980	10300	16640	4884	5322	2858	10330	9515	5056	2798	10960	6015	17270	7812	4001	953	27910	15400	5502	4720	4783	22310	24390	24220	21240	16910	6705	7594	5663	7748	4464	7874	6023	1137	8370	4107	3845	6063	13470	26850	16180	4751	7954	23540	6504	7782	23550	5736	4949	5999	9979	6327	5048	11750

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-14