COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-18

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-09	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-22	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-01-12	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-09	09-27	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	2021-01-08	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-07	12-21	12-30	11-03	2021-01-11	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	2021-01-02	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-11	2021-01-11	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-10	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-26	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-30	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	77	477	588	191	59	326	133	111	108	232	423	1252	74	158	66	60	158	49	484	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	318	107	505	93	189	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	266	52	200	250	286	60	90	71	68	244	53	95	284	35	367	289	38	183	598	151	69	188	72	246	26	249	187	118	323	539	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	589	271	95	76	75	89	73	125	53	38	122	81	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	201	57	398	175	103	339	101	109	135	121	482	100	156	47	444	57	115	450	138	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	312	429	107	379	287	104	444	71	113	731	272	200	90	37	377	90	419	29	47	297	49	62	147	119	362	79	105	63	123	85	720	23	50	159	105	50	109	59	124	122	41	55	275	158	124	225	90	44	125	126	109	155	119	201	104	174	621	84	83	171	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	36	26	163	451	42	82	404	65	130	243	209	245	168	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	83	96	80	108	80	67	102	113	245	294	456	131	151	222	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	202	106	320	189	181	125	55	107	46	140	328	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	557	153	92	107	85	258	324	452	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	264	83	149	432	106	139	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	53	54	53	59	53	72	59	57	54	57	128	53	57	52	38	50	53	58	51	53	53	46	40	48	95	52	59	112	58	53	53	67	53	52	55	59	54	58	50	50	53	107	59	54	55	72	53	59	59	45	58	51	54	58	58	47	59	59	50	54	53	52	51	58	58	50	52	53	53	59	55	59	59	47	37	127	53	73	54	53	56	51	56	59	108	54	110	53	51	52	59	55	58	55	66	58	40	144	57	52	62	52	45	53	54	59	53	58	59	53	59	53	58	59	59	59	58	53	53	58	58	67	53	57	52	59	51	53	52	56	55	59	48	52	53	58	52	52	55	113	59	53	53	51	50	53	52	59	53	53	81	53	53	58	59	45	50	46	58	106	41	59	59	59	58	55	58	54	52	51	46	106	52	72	53	116	54	59	103	59	50	107	38	45	53	59	48	51	59	53	52	53	53	47	43	51	47	51	59	38	38	58	52	59	53	52	67	49	67	124	50	53	53	55	23	52	51	51	46	59	53	51	56	53	50	55	53	59	58	59	52	54	55	39	58	101	56	58	60	46	52	53	58	59	66	52	54	59	54	55	110	58	52	59	109	59	57	58	53	59	73	55	52	50	57	50	45	53	59	54	59	59	68	57	50	59	58	52	58	54	59	113	52	53	62	55	59	59	58	59	53	55	60	67	52	73	58	53	53	51	51	58	58	52	53	58	53	48	52	50	59	50	50	52
Last total	2781	4704	8108	7664	8809	9475	11041	3701	22685	29200	16534	4057	17152	7700	7246	7889	12808	21636	94413	6417	16889	8740	5505	23692	4284	24336	6721	43494	10409	6178	27187	6701	13826	29046	5708	23661	5890	8888	6525	9426	15968	13082	5288	13531	6645	9717	8006	8079	14854	11302	12262	3551	8669	19366	20267	5699	4633	4043	7265	10666	2934	4840	13487	2451	35274	21948	2625	7447	29862	7996	6734	9963	3902	18748	2631	20538	11016	7573	24972	29291	2788	3840	4643	7907	5769	4220	16412	8806	8276	6405	5348	2894	7046	28995	12107	5022	6430	4741	4910	4717	7872	2948	4423	12930	7456	6165	3625	9950	5277	21561	7045	11419	3951	12376	4691	20151	7628	7163	19622	4089	8181	6033	6687	26172	6476	7936	4592	24896	5515	5427	23414	7062	7312	6967	6605	14439	8556	5431	7004	17032	11652	30168	16746	23405	8861	56026	33062	4720	21066	6094	6434	46640	18472	12365	3646	2526	49009	7331	25394	2386	3177	15501	2069	3081	6518	11545	18752	4195	5795	6518	22042	7833	34237	1896	5612	7457	6040	5099	7858	2885	9515	11399	3839	5318	16803	16163	7063	28586	7821	4598	21257	8885	9235	13619	8616	13488	12594	10345	31680	8711	5525	8827	4275	10278	2404	19430	6170	5708	4790	18519	5877	5238	6379	7495	1485	1755	21356	31688	5238	4900	22843	4469	6663	38792	14049	14324	13631	5693	4588	5414	6624	14323	1574	4405	6660	4326	5263	4450	5467	7375	4867	8230	10619	13251	14206	21778	7038	7538	16080	8148	4921	5550	19048	14416	18300	4671	3491	20515	5284	15296	12926	10268	16562	4886	5301	2827	10241	9447	5012	2783	10958	5996	17247	7799	3939	947	27867	15360	5464	4690	4745	22141	23931	24114	21115	16736	6659	7548	5621	7707	4446	7807	5967	1128	8341	4077	3815	6012	13423	26746	15923	4682	7896	23387	6453	7733	23377	5666	4948	5939	9925	6307	5003	11688
Last daily increment	2	23	15	36	40	14	18	16	39	27	66	8	17	16	35	14	31	41	249	21	42	23	13	78	12	55	9	176	18	27	48	13	20	67	3	27	13	5	22	15	49	52	5	22	23	12	7	17	36	57	15	7	30	41	60	11	12	4	25	33	12	40	24	4	90	67	2	21	61	13	20	15	20	71	15	75	36	15	70	48	15	6	12	15	4	24	35	39	18	10	25	1	13	41	12	6	33	8	10	35	9	7	18	35	36	9	18	11	23	37	5	18	7	40	12	21	12	21	40	5	29	5	10	37	25	8	14	51	29	12	61	34	12	25	11	13	12	34	22	55	17	114	29	48	25	243	131	20	19	23	17	105	63	18	3	27	99	29	41	3	15	33	10	6	23	56	47	5	17	41	42	19	45	3	19	30	10	24	28	7	23	52	25	26	61	49	18	87	28	12	44	35	16	85	15	44	41	20	28	28	19	14	12	18	5	50	16	9	10	68	20	6	23	8	4	5	81	100	13	19	45	8	9	110	49	47	44	18	6	16	21	47	2	25	31	9	15	7	12	25	20	21	31	56	8	34	18	10	44	22	11	16	80	44	70	16	15	68	7	20	15	39	54	36	11	7	39	23	24	8	16	6	39	6	16	1	23	31	7	3	13	94	70	23	16	30	21	10	6	9	23	16	10	0	20	10	7	20	25	82	75	5	10	55	35	9	70	19	12	32	33	12	18	24
Last week	28	127	129	187	272	77	177	50	213	280	392	102	139	115	198	77	231	191	1656	144	213	163	113	543	104	438	97	956	87	137	310	76	125	427	86	153	84	66	181	89	373	332	68	120	144	48	101	73	231	330	106	29	130	354	373	145	72	52	160	168	76	211	183	26	625	476	38	124	301	80	154	83	101	389	61	524	271	73	479	388	59	53	60	105	50	118	364	212	123	42	127	26	79	195	75	55	196	52	116	175	63	52	85	218	191	46	107	84	116	168	67	153	49	159	118	156	80	134	229	50	151	49	87	203	160	78	106	359	156	52	355	200	90	88	58	73	94	182	126	330	137	678	207	228	202	1147	771	64	141	125	89	704	404	93	29	92	801	207	176	45	58	184	44	43	100	336	301	39	109	202	282	112	307	18	115	161	79	122	130	47	141	279	134	205	340	320	133	554	192	77	317	141	112	489	97	221	277	117	266	188	165	77	68	106	40	328	67	70	28	402	140	63	156	71	90	44	410	730	56	131	312	76	58	614	367	265	245	95	63	78	160	253	13	145	164	55	72	43	70	149	70	146	194	328	146	170	96	78	346	122	75	97	425	328	313	103	63	437	74	144	91	197	372	160	48	54	283	168	104	46	90	74	164	56	91	6	134	243	44	48	68	548	432	204	192	238	119	64	53	71	154	120	125	4	166	88	41	95	114	478	384	65	91	332	121	76	403	103	73	136	218	112	126	124
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-26	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-24	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-05	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	10-31	11-01	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-20	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	11-03	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			79	72			95		163	99	54	235		137		55					71	320					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165	28		55									31					32						55						41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65									42		52				59									360	152		86	540	254					529					611	61								73					391				51								35	58	68			610			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		63			43		67				237	235	84		182			435	113						66								24	70		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				136				38		31		65	41	130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	18	61		34		27					21	82					19	33	55						10			32			16	56		18			31				14		106	71	9							53	7		18									15					8						17						11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18									11		14				21									94	20		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14								13	16	6			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	21		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18	13	16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-19 to 2021-02-25

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-18	2781	4704	8108	7664	8809	9475	11041	3701	22685	29200	16534	4057	17152	7700	7246	7889	12808	21636	94413	6417	16889	8740	5505	23692	4284	24336	6721	43494	10409	6178	27187	6701	13826	29046	5708	23661	5890	8888	6525	9426	15968	13082	5288	13531	6645	9717	8006	8079	14854	11302	12262	3551	8669	19366	20267	5699	4633	4043	7265	10666	2934	4840	13487	2451	35274	21948	2625	7447	29862	7996	6734	9963	3902	18748	2631	20538	11016	7573	24972	29291	2788	3840	4643	7907	5769	4220	16412	8806	8276	6405	5348	2894	7046	28995	12107	5022	6430	4741	4910	4717	7872	2948	4423	12930	7456	6165	3625	9950	5277	21561	7045	11419	3951	12376	4691	20151	7628	7163	19622	4089	8181	6033	6687	26172	6476	7936	4592	24896	5515	5427	23414	7062	7312	6967	6605	14439	8556	5431	7004	17032	11652	30168	16746	23405	8861	56026	33062	4720	21066	6094	6434	46640	18472	12365	3646	2526	49009	7331	25394	2386	3177	15501	2069	3081	6518	11545	18752	4195	5795	6518	22042	7833	34237	1896	5612	7457	6040	5099	7858	2885	9515	11399	3839	5318	16803	16163	7063	28586	7821	4598	21257	8885	9235	13619	8616	13488	12594	10345	31680	8711	5525	8827	4275	10278	2404	19430	6170	5708	4790	18519	5877	5238	6379	7495	1485	1755	21356	31688	5238	4900	22843	4469	6663	38792	14049	14324	13631	5693	4588	5414	6624	14323	1574	4405	6660	4326	5263	4450	5467	7375	4867	8230	10619	13251	14206	21778	7038	7538	16080	8148	4921	5550	19048	14416	18300	4671	3491	20515	5284	15296	12926	10268	16562	4886	5301	2827	10241	9447	5012	2783	10958	5996	17247	7799	3939	947	27867	15360	5464	4690	4745	22141	23931	24114	21115	16736	6659	7548	5621	7707	4446	7807	5967	8341	4077	3815	6012	13423	26746	15923	4682	7896	23387	6453	7733	23377	5666	4948	5939	9925	6307	5003	11688
2021-02-19	2783	4738	8136	7709	8892	9491	11080	3708	22700	29220	16600	4073	17190	7710	7280	7941	12840	21650	94960	6442	16930	8807	5528	23850	4305	24460	6742	43670	10430	6242	27300	6712	13900	29320	5722	23670	5907	8928	6559	9454	16010	13140	5298	13560	6723	9751	8046	8091	14880	11340	12280	3559	8695	19430	20460	5724	4690	4055	7294	10680	2951	4875	13610	2457	35390	22000	2631	7488	29900	8024	6773	9980	3918	18810	2642	20630	11070	7591	25060	29460	2798	3851	4657	7925	5782	4241	16490	8892	8300	6444	5368	2897	7061	29010	12150	5027	6462	4751	4917	4769	7889	2968	4428	12970	7508	6196	3636	9970	5295	21600	7057	11450	3964	12390	4712	20180	7657	7183	19640	4093	8234	6054	6701	26210	6500	7955	4610	24940	5532	5447	23540	7119	7389	7023	6610	14440	8572	5466	7057	17100	11690	30310	16790	23440	8925	56310	33260	4730	21110	6117	6449	46710	18550	12400	3651	2537	49180	7411	25420	2394	3208	15540	2072	3087	6540	11640	18810	4205	5822	6570	22080	7853	34300	1899	5621	7481	6052	5119	7882	2895	9544	11450	3858	5343	16820	16250	7086	28690	7881	4612	21360	8982	9255	13720	8650	13540	12690	10350	31710	8780	5552	8867	4287	10300	2413	19520	6191	5719	4804	18640	5902	5252	6409	7508	1496	1763	21490	31820	5249	4928	22900	4483	6676	38920	14180	14430	13780	5728	4598	5427	6673	14360	1577	4429	6682	4337	5268	4474	5481	7397	4908	8327	10650	13360	14220	21820	7058	7554	16240	8205	4947	5568	19120	14440	18360	4698	3506	20630	5284	15310	12970	10300	16650	4918	5315	2837	10290	9487	5030	2790	10980	6017	17270	7822	3957	950	27890	15380	5503	4696	4759	22260	23990	24170	21170	16780	6680	7568	5633	7726	4470	7857	5991	8385	4091	3825	6080	13460	26810	16080	4695	7910	23470	6472	7749	23440	5673	4982	5963	9960	6323	5013	11710
2021-02-20	2793	4758	8148	7734	8942	9504	11190	3719	22720	29260	16660	4105	17230	7730	7337	7964	12890	21680	95280	6482	16970	8848	5586	23930	4326	24540	6769	43800	10470	6279	27370	6725	13930	29470	5737	23730	5949	9007	6586	9473	16050	13180	5317	13620	6771	9773	8071	8106	14930	11380	12300	3587	8732	19470	20560	5777	4722	4095	7344	10700	2979	4932	13660	2477	35620	22040	2644	7516	29970	8084	6804	10000	3942	18850	2665	20690	11210	7614	25110	29560	2812	3873	4705	7952	5832	4275	16540	8940	8313	6462	5384	2901	7099	29070	12190	5040	6511	4756	4923	4804	7898	2980	4439	13040	7539	6214	3651	10010	5315	21670	7079	11490	3999	12420	4744	20230	7676	7205	19690	4102	8276	6066	6718	26250	6533	7969	4650	25010	5550	5455	23620	7175	7440	7053	6641	14460	8593	5529	7075	17150	11780	30420	16900	23530	8980	56520	33410	4756	21230	6176	6461	46770	18670	12420	3660	2547	49270	7449	25470	2414	3226	15610	2079	3099	6557	11710	18910	4226	5842	6598	22120	7902	34400	1904	5623	7495	6067	5155	7921	2905	9560	11520	3875	5368	16850	16300	7120	28900	7929	4629	21440	9048	9310	13810	8675	13570	12750	10390	31760	8830	5602	8880	4314	10320	2432	19590	6210	5733	4814	18710	5952	5297	6448	7527	1505	1772	21580	32110	5271	4952	22970	4516	6698	39020	14270	14500	13860	5751	4615	5445	6711	14400	1586	4467	6698	4352	5279	4484	5517	7421	4921	8382	10690	13440	14250	21910	7118	7580	16330	8235	4968	5590	19170	14470	18430	4719	3538	20700	5291	15340	13000	10370	16710	4950	5344	2863	10390	9512	5053	2809	11000	6062	17290	7843	4002	951	27930	15400	5528	4717	4792	22330	24010	24280	21190	16810	6723	7608	5655	7768	4506	7885	6046	8420	4105	3839	6120	13480	26870	16180	4737	7925	23540	6485	7762	23490	5695	5003	5970	10050	6335	5030	11750
2021-02-21	2799	4779	8167	7757	8983	9505	11270	3729	22750	29290	16720	4130	17250	7746	7383	7988	12930	21690	95500	6514	16980	8876	5626	24020	4341	24590	6793	43940	10500	6308	27430	6737	13960	29590	5738	23760	5979	9064	6611	9488	16100	13210	5332	13670	6812	9787	8094	8120	14970	11420	12320	3606	8764	19500	20650	5816	4741	4122	7384	10710	3001	4978	13720	2490	35790	22050	2653	7532	30020	8126	6830	10020	3962	18890	2682	20770	11310	7634	25150	29640	2824	3890	4736	7975	5866	4303	16580	8977	8324	6474	5394	2905	7124	29100	12220	5049	6552	4763	4923	4830	7903	2990	4447	13100	7570	6226	3664	10040	5328	21730	7096	11530	4023	12440	4771	20260	7684	7227	19720	4109	8310	6071	6734	26280	6561	7980	4679	25070	5567	5462	23690	7201	7475	7072	6660	14480	8613	5579	7091	17180	11840	30520	16980	23600	9015	56680	33530	4774	21310	6218	6474	46800	18770	12440	3667	2559	49370	7489	25500	2428	3241	15660	2085	3108	6569	11760	18980	4242	5853	6620	22160	7937	34490	1908	5625	7514	6081	5183	7953	2910	9583	11570	3892	5393	16860	16350	7150	29060	7968	4644	21490	9096	9349	13880	8690	13580	12800	10410	31800	8858	5641	8895	4334	10340	2446	19640	6224	5746	4821	18780	5991	5328	6482	7542	1515	1780	21650	32330	5287	4969	23030	4540	6715	39120	14330	14550	13920	5766	4629	5459	6736	14430	1593	4497	6718	4365	5288	4495	5543	7443	4934	8421	10730	13500	14270	21980	7159	7601	16420	8254	4983	5611	19220	14490	18490	4736	3562	20760	5296	15360	13010	10410	16760	4973	5364	2881	10470	9522	5074	2822	11020	6095	17310	7862	4034	953	27970	15400	5543	4731	4815	22430	24010	24360	21200	16820	6755	7637	5671	7798	4536	7906	6087	8449	4119	3850	6138	13490	26930	16240	4765	7932	23600	6501	7766	23510	5711	5017	5977	10110	6345	5042	11780
2021-02-22	2803	4815	8191	7787	9068	9517	11320	3737	22770	29320	16790	4150	17290	7758	7422	8010	12970	21710	95950	6543	17020	8909	5658	24160	4367	24690	6814	44140	10520	6346	27510	6748	14000	29730	5748	23780	6003	9109	6650	9519	16180	13290	5345	13700	6854	9804	8122	8134	15010	11490	12340	3619	8791	19580	20780	5849	4768	4142	7419	10720	3020	5018	13780	2500	35940	22120	2660	7545	30070	8160	6866	10030	3980	18950	2696	20870	11390	7651	25240	29750	2834	3903	4760	7996	5890	4326	16640	9036	8339	6487	5420	2908	7144	29130	12250	5055	6587	4771	4942	4874	7909	3002	4455	13140	7617	6239	3688	10060	5353	21770	7110	11560	4042	12450	4794	20290	7708	7248	19750	4113	8348	6084	6747	26310	6587	7997	4703	25120	5585	5476	23790	7249	7523	7093	6673	14490	8630	5620	7123	17260	11890	30650	17040	23650	9064	56900	33690	4789	21370	6250	6488	46860	18860	12460	3673	2578	49540	7544	25540	2439	3255	15700	2089	3116	6584	11830	19050	4255	5863	6672	22200	7966	34560	1912	5635	7534	6093	5207	7980	2919	9608	11630	3910	5432	16890	16420	7176	29190	8004	4658	21560	9151	9379	13960	8713	13620	12860	10430	31830	8903	5673	8914	4350	10350	2457	19730	6234	5757	4828	18860	6023	5351	6514	7556	1525	1787	21740	32500	5300	4995	23090	4560	6730	39240	14420	14610	13970	5796	4642	5471	6779	14470	1598	4524	6739	4377	5294	4506	5562	7463	4957	8476	10760	13570	14280	22030	7191	7618	16500	8281	5004	5629	19310	14530	18550	4755	3581	20860	5301	15380	13030	10450	16830	4998	5381	2895	10540	9544	5093	2832	11040	6121	17340	7874	4058	954	27990	15410	5554	4740	4834	22520	24100	24420	21250	16860	6782	7661	5684	7822	4562	7933	6119	8483	4133	3860	6162	13520	27040	16330	4787	7960	23690	6517	7776	23570	5721	5038	5997	10160	6367	5061	11810
2021-02-23	2807	4859	8230	7815	9119	9534	11380	3745	22780	29350	16860	4169	17320	7770	7460	8029	13000	21730	96440	6571	17050	8954	5688	24260	4385	24790	6834	44310	10550	6377	27600	6759	14030	29880	5755	23810	6025	9152	6688	9536	16240	13340	5356	13730	6884	9816	8145	8147	15040	11540	12360	3632	8818	19670	20890	5880	4787	4160	7452	10730	3039	5057	13830	2509	36080	22140	2667	7562	30110	8192	6894	10050	3997	18990	2710	20950	11460	7668	25290	29870	2844	3916	4781	8016	5911	4349	16710	9084	8373	6498	5443	2911	7163	29160	12270	5060	6622	4779	4943	4915	7916	3013	4462	13190	7655	6256	3709	10080	5370	21820	7125	11600	4060	12470	4817	20320	7712	7269	19770	4117	8387	6108	6761	26350	6612	8014	4725	25160	5603	5495	23880	7288	7569	7111	6686	14500	8648	5660	7152	17320	11940	30770	17100	23700	9112	57050	33840	4802	21430	6280	6502	46990	18940	12480	3679	2594	49680	7580	25570	2449	3268	15740	2093	3124	6603	11900	19110	4268	5874	6706	22240	7993	34620	1915	5644	7555	6104	5231	8006	2930	9645	11680	3927	5463	16930	16490	7203	29320	8038	4672	21620	9200	9407	14080	8735	13680	12920	10440	31860	8940	5704	8941	4366	10370	2467	19790	6246	5768	4833	18930	6053	5372	6545	7568	1536	1794	21820	32670	5313	5018	23140	4578	6744	39360	14500	14660	14020	5818	4654	5483	6813	14520	1602	4550	6761	4389	5300	4515	5581	7484	4978	8504	10800	13640	14300	22080	7220	7635	16590	8310	5018	5647	19390	14550	18600	4776	3599	20940	5305	15400	13060	10490	16880	5029	5397	2908	10600	9555	5112	2842	11050	6146	17360	7887	4081	954	28020	15430	5567	4749	4851	22620	24180	24480	21310	16880	6807	7684	5696	7844	4588	7961	6150	8512	4147	3869	6175	13540	27120	16400	4806	7975	23760	6533	7788	23650	5731	5052	6017	10210	6385	5066	11840
2021-02-24	2810	4880	8245	7849	9150	9540	11420	3753	22800	29370	16930	4187	17340	7781	7494	8040	13040	21740	96740	6597	17080	8975	5713	24350	4399	24850	6854	44460	10570	6403	27640	6770	14050	29990	5757	23830	6044	9188	6715	9543	16300	13400	5367	13760	6917	9825	8167	8159	15070	11600	12370	3642	8842	19730	20990	5908	4797	4175	7483	10740	3056	5093	13870	2516	36200	22160	2673	7572	30150	8219	6926	10060	4013	19040	2721	21030	11520	7683	25350	29950	2853	3927	4798	8034	5928	4371	16800	9112	8389	6500	5464	2913	7178	29180	12290	5065	6655	4788	4951	4947	7916	3026	4469	13230	7686	6270	3723	10100	5388	21850	7137	11620	4074	12490	4839	20350	7717	7290	19790	4120	8415	6114	6774	26380	6635	8025	4745	25210	5620	5503	23930	7322	7601	7131	6694	14500	8665	5697	7168	17370	11980	30890	17150	23740	9149	57230	33950	4814	21470	6305	6517	47030	19020	12490	3684	2603	49810	7618	25600	2458	3277	15780	2097	3131	6622	11950	19170	4279	5881	6740	22270	8016	34680	1918	5650	7577	6115	5252	8030	2937	9661	11720	3945	5494	16950	16550	7227	29430	8059	4686	21670	9256	9430	14150	8749	13710	12970	10450	31890	8967	5732	8957	4379	10390	2476	19840	6255	5778	4839	19000	6080	5389	6575	7580	1547	1801	21870	32810	5324	5038	23200	4594	6756	39470	14560	14700	14060	5831	4664	5495	6835	14560	1606	4573	6783	4400	5306	4523	5597	7503	4999	8531	10830	13690	14310	22120	7245	7650	16650	8333	5026	5664	19450	14580	18660	4798	3615	21010	5309	15420	13070	10530	16940	5051	5410	2920	10650	9565	5130	2850	11070	6168	17380	7895	4101	956	28040	15450	5578	4756	4865	22710	24220	24520	21340	16900	6830	7704	5707	7863	4612	7985	6176	8540	4161	3878	6195	13550	27180	16460	4822	7990	23810	6550	7795	23670	5739	5072	6024	10250	6398	5072	11860
2021-02-25	2813	4900	8262	7881	9192	9554	11460	3760	22820	29400	16990	4203	17370	7791	7527	8055	13070	21750	96980	6622	17120	9002	5737	24430	4412	24920	6873	44630	10590	6430	27700	6780	14070	30050	5767	23840	6061	9223	6739	9559	16350	13450	5377	13790	6940	9836	8180	8171	15100	11650	12390	3651	8867	19770	21040	5935	4811	4189	7512	10750	3073	5128	13900	2522	36320	22240	2678	7599	30180	8245	6950	10070	4028	19120	2732	21120	11580	7699	25430	30010	2862	3938	4813	8052	5943	4392	16840	9151	8405	6518	5488	2916	7193	29200	12310	5069	6687	4797	4966	4979	7934	3032	4475	13260	7722	6281	3739	10120	5408	21890	7150	11650	4088	12500	4859	20380	7733	7311	19810	4123	8440	6124	6786	26410	6658	8034	4763	25250	5638	5514	23990	7356	7610	7156	6702	14510	8682	5731	7196	17430	12020	31000	17190	23780	9179	57440	34080	4825	21520	6329	6531	47130	19100	12520	3689	2623	49920	7656	25630	2467	3292	15820	2100	3137	6643	12010	19220	4289	5903	6776	22310	8038	34740	1921	5671	7600	6125	5272	8053	2945	9687	11770	3963	5523	17010	16600	7251	29530	8088	4699	21720	9280	9451	14220	8767	13750	13020	10460	31920	9001	5758	8971	4392	10400	2484	19890	6270	5788	4847	19070	6106	5405	6605	7592	1558	1808	21950	32950	5335	5058	23250	4608	6768	39570	14610	14750	14110	5848	4675	5506	6861	14600	1610	4597	6805	4411	5311	4533	5611	7522	5013	8560	10860	13750	14320	22160	7267	7664	16700	8359	5038	5680	19530	14630	18720	4812	3630	21080	5312	15440	13090	10560	17000	5086	5423	2931	10700	9599	5148	2858	11090	6189	17420	7901	4119	957	28070	15490	5588	4763	4878	22800	24290	24570	21370	16940	6851	7723	5718	7880	4635	8005	6200	8564	4175	3886	6218	13580	27260	16530	4837	7998	23860	6568	7804	23750	5745	5085	6053	10290	6410	5092	11890

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-19 to 2021-02-25

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-18	2781	4704	8108	7664	8809	9475	11041	3701	22685	29200	16534	4057	17152	7700	7246	7889	12808	21636	94413	6417	16889	8740	5505	23692	4284	24336	6721	43494	10409	6178	27187	6701	13826	29046	5708	23661	5890	8888	6525	9426	15968	13082	5288	13531	6645	9717	8006	8079	14854	11302	12262	3551	8669	19366	20267	5699	4633	4043	7265	10666	2934	4840	13487	2451	35274	21948	2625	7447	29862	7996	6734	9963	3902	18748	2631	20538	11016	7573	24972	29291	2788	3840	4643	7907	5769	4220	16412	8806	8276	6405	5348	2894	7046	28995	12107	5022	6430	4741	4910	4717	7872	2948	4423	12930	7456	6165	3625	9950	5277	21561	7045	11419	3951	12376	4691	20151	7628	7163	19622	4089	8181	6033	6687	26172	6476	7936	4592	24896	5515	5427	23414	7062	7312	6967	6605	14439	8556	5431	7004	17032	11652	30168	16746	23405	8861	56026	33062	4720	21066	6094	6434	46640	18472	12365	3646	2526	49009	7331	25394	2386	3177	15501	2069	3081	6518	11545	18752	4195	5795	6518	22042	7833	34237	1896	5612	7457	6040	5099	7858	2885	9515	11399	3839	5318	16803	16163	7063	28586	7821	4598	21257	8885	9235	13619	8616	13488	12594	10345	31680	8711	5525	8827	4275	10278	2404	19430	6170	5708	4790	18519	5877	5238	6379	7495	1485	1755	21356	31688	5238	4900	22843	4469	6663	38792	14049	14324	13631	5693	4588	5414	6624	14323	1574	4405	6660	4326	5263	4450	5467	7375	4867	8230	10619	13251	14206	21778	7038	7538	16080	8148	4921	5550	19048	14416	18300	4671	3491	20515	5284	15296	12926	10268	16562	4886	5301	2827	10241	9447	5012	2783	10958	5996	17247	7799	3939	947	27867	15360	5464	4690	4745	22141	23931	24114	21115	16736	6659	7548	5621	7707	4446	7807	5967	8341	4077	3815	6012	13423	26746	15923	4682	7896	23387	6453	7733	23377	5666	4948	5939	9925	6307	5003	11688
2021-02-19	2785	4722	8124	7695	8857	9484	11080	3710	22730	29240	16600	4069	17170	7717	7278	7902	12840	21670	94760	6442	16920	8769	5529	23790	4298	24410	6734	43640	10430	6203	27230	6713	13850	29130	5720	23690	5908	8900	6551	9436	16010	13130	5298	13550	6676	9727	8019	8094	14890	11350	12270	3562	8689	19410	20340	5721	4651	4055	7293	10690	2950	4872	13520	2458	35390	22030	2630	7474	29910	8013	6756	9980	3920	18800	2644	20620	11070	7584	25040	29350	2798	3851	4654	7918	5781	4244	16470	8848	8295	6417	5369	2897	7062	29030	12120	5033	6463	4751	4925	4742	7880	2958	4438	12950	7488	6173	3635	9960	5292	21590	7054	11440	3964	12400	4710	20180	7647	7183	19660	4097	8205	6038	6697	26200	6499	7945	4609	24960	5540	5434	23470	7089	7331	6992	6621	14450	8571	5467	7029	17080	11680	30270	16780	23450	8884	56240	33180	4730	21100	6118	6447	46720	18540	12380	3649	2541	49130	7369	25420	2394	3186	15530	2078	3087	6535	11600	18800	4204	5810	6558	22090	7851	34280	1899	5632	7481	6052	5119	7882	2892	9531	11450	3859	5345	16850	16210	7080	28690	7858	4608	21320	8916	9256	13680	8632	13520	12640	10360	31710	8744	5550	8840	4287	10290	2412	19480	6180	5718	4795	18590	5902	5251	6411	7504	1494	1762	21440	31790	5248	4918	22890	4481	6672	38890	14110	14370	13680	5705	4597	5423	6651	14360	1577	4430	6684	4334	5277	4458	5484	7395	4880	8259	10650	13300	14230	21810	7060	7554	16140	8177	4932	5563	19120	14460	18350	4690	3506	20590	5294	15320	12950	10300	16620	4910	5311	2836	10280	9478	5026	2791	10970	6009	17280	7806	3956	949	27890	15400	5475	4698	4764	22240	24000	24150	21140	16770	6680	7558	5626	7720	4468	7826	5986	8363	4090	3823	6038	13440	26800	16010	4696	7908	23430	6472	7743	23430	5682	4960	5965	9960	6321	5019	11710
2021-02-20	2791	4737	8137	7716	8889	9495	11120	3715	22760	29280	16660	4082	17180	7735	7312	7909	12870	21690	95110	6468	16950	8799	5550	23860	4316	24460	6750	43770	10450	6221	27250	6721	13870	29200	5732	23720	5924	8919	6572	9445	16060	13180	5307	13570	6700	9735	8029	8104	14930	11380	12290	3573	8700	19450	20380	5751	4666	4071	7316	10710	2970	4904	13540	2466	35510	22090	2634	7497	29960	8033	6779	9990	3936	18850	2655	20670	11120	7595	25090	29400	2807	3862	4672	7930	5802	4260	16510	8882	8310	6423	5381	2902	7079	29070	12130	5042	6494	4759	4940	4763	7887	2965	4452	12990	7516	6181	3642	9980	5303	21610	7066	11460	3982	12420	4732	20200	7662	7198	19690	4107	8224	6049	6710	26230	6517	7953	4629	25020	5562	5438	23510	7123	7346	7003	6639	14470	8585	5506	7041	17130	11710	30360	16830	23490	8911	56400	33280	4738	21140	6145	6457	46810	18600	12390	3653	2549	49220	7400	25440	2404	3197	15570	2090	3092	6544	11660	18840	4213	5830	6584	22130	7873	34320	1903	5644	7499	6068	5140	7908	2899	9547	11490	3873	5368	16900	16250	7101	28810	7889	4618	21380	8933	9278	13740	8643	13540	12680	10380	31740	8779	5576	8846	4302	10300	2422	19520	6189	5728	4800	18650	5932	5272	6441	7512	1505	1771	21500	31920	5260	4938	22930	4497	6680	38960	14180	14410	13730	5718	4607	5431	6677	14400	1581	4452	6696	4342	5290	4464	5498	7416	4885	8279	10680	13350	14250	21850	7086	7572	16200	8202	4945	5581	19170	14510	18390	4702	3522	20660	5300	15330	12960	10330	16680	4930	5321	2847	10340	9506	5039	2799	10980	6024	17290	7813	3975	950	27910	15430	5484	4709	4777	22300	24040	24200	21160	16800	6703	7573	5637	7733	4487	7840	6008	8386	4104	3831	6056	13450	26840	16080	4713	7920	23470	6483	7757	23480	5705	4969	5981	10000	6333	5035	11730
2021-02-21	2796	4752	8155	7731	8921	9505	11160	3720	22780	29310	16710	4095	17190	7751	7343	7921	12900	21710	95380	6493	16970	8826	5569	23950	4331	24510	6763	43900	10470	6236	27280	6731	13880	29250	5738	23750	5938	8934	6591	9456	16110	13230	5315	13590	6723	9739	8041	8115	14960	11420	12300	3582	8709	19490	20430	5778	4680	4084	7339	10730	2988	4933	13570	2473	35620	22140	2638	7514	29990	8049	6801	10000	3951	18900	2665	20740	11170	7606	25140	29440	2816	3872	4684	7941	5817	4280	16560	8914	8323	6427	5390	2906	7094	29100	12140	5049	6524	4768	4952	4784	7896	2971	4462	13020	7544	6187	3649	9990	5309	21630	7076	11480	3997	12440	4751	20220	7676	7212	19710	4114	8242	6056	6722	26270	6535	7960	4646	25080	5585	5441	23550	7145	7358	7009	6654	14480	8599	5542	7056	17170	11740	30450	16870	23530	8931	56540	33370	4744	21170	6169	6468	46910	18660	12400	3658	2560	49320	7434	25470	2413	3207	15600	2099	3096	6552	11710	18880	4222	5848	6605	22180	7892	34360	1906	5658	7523	6083	5160	7932	2901	9570	11540	3889	5393	16940	16290	7122	28910	7921	4628	21430	8945	9298	13790	8653	13560	12730	10400	31770	8808	5600	8851	4316	10310	2431	19560	6198	5739	4803	18700	5959	5288	6471	7518	1516	1777	21560	32010	5268	4954	22980	4512	6686	39040	14240	14440	13770	5727	4617	5440	6701	14430	1584	4474	6710	4349	5299	4471	5509	7436	4889	8300	10710	13390	14280	21880	7109	7590	16250	8225	4958	5598	19230	14550	18430	4714	3532	20720	5307	15350	12970	10360	16720	4946	5330	2857	10370	9533	5051	2805	10990	6037	17310	7822	3993	951	27930	15450	5490	4720	4788	22380	24080	24230	21180	16840	6723	7585	5645	7746	4506	7855	6030	8405	4117	3836	6069	13460	26890	16130	4727	7930	23510	6493	7765	23510	5720	4974	5995	10040	6344	5048	11750
2021-02-22	2800	4773	8179	7761	8998	9518	11200	3725	22820	29350	16770	4109	17210	7768	7375	7938	12930	21740	95740	6517	17010	8855	5596	24070	4352	24570	6778	44070	10500	6263	27320	6741	13910	29340	5750	23780	5957	8949	6620	9473	16170	13290	5326	13610	6750	9747	8060	8128	15000	11470	12310	3591	8720	19550	20490	5805	4698	4095	7374	10750	3008	4966	13600	2479	35750	22230	2642	7533	30030	8064	6830	10020	3966	18960	2676	20820	11210	7616	25210	29520	2824	3884	4702	7957	5831	4300	16610	8960	8337	6434	5408	2910	7107	29130	12150	5061	6556	4778	4971	4822	7904	2981	4474	13060	7578	6193	3664	10000	5323	21650	7087	11500	4011	12460	4772	20240	7691	7232	19740	4121	8262	6066	6735	26300	6562	7971	4665	25130	5609	5451	23610	7180	7378	7020	6669	14490	8613	5575	7077	17230	11760	30570	16920	23570	8964	56740	33520	4751	21200	6191	6481	47020	18720	12410	3663	2576	49470	7477	25490	2421	3216	15620	2108	3101	6561	11770	18930	4231	5865	6654	22220	7912	34410	1909	5676	7546	6097	5179	7955	2908	9593	11590	3905	5425	16990	16350	7142	29010	7954	4637	21490	8966	9323	13860	8665	13590	12780	10410	31810	8843	5624	8861	4329	10330	2440	19640	6206	5749	4808	18790	5985	5303	6500	7527	1532	1785	21640	32140	5276	4976	23030	4526	6692	39140	14300	14480	13820	5744	4627	5450	6733	14470	1587	4495	6734	4359	5308	4477	5523	7460	4899	8338	10730	13440	14310	21900	7131	7607	16310	8248	4974	5614	19300	14600	18460	4730	3548	20790	5316	15370	12990	10390	16780	4966	5338	2869	10430	9560	5063	2812	11000	6050	17340	7827	4010	952	27950	15480	5495	4731	4801	22460	24150	24260	21220	16880	6745	7596	5655	7760	4525	7873	6058	8432	4131	3842	6085	13480	26960	16200	4742	7942	23560	6508	7778	23570	5741	4984	6017	10070	6362	5068	11760
2021-02-23	2804	4794	8211	7793	9039	9535	11230	3730	22850	29380	16830	4120	17220	7785	7410	7954	12960	21760	96160	6541	17050	8887	5616	24170	4369	24650	6788	44220	10520	6285	27370	6750	13920	29440	5762	23800	5972	8963	6651	9484	16230	13350	5335	13620	6772	9753	8075	8139	15030	11510	12330	3600	8730	19630	20550	5830	4716	4108	7401	10770	3025	5003	13640	2485	35860	22290	2646	7557	30070	8079	6856	10030	3979	19020	2686	20890	11270	7626	25260	29590	2832	3893	4723	7969	5843	4317	16660	9005	8364	6442	5427	2914	7120	29170	12160	5071	6592	4787	4984	4862	7913	2988	4487	13100	7607	6202	3677	10010	5333	21660	7097	11520	4024	12490	4792	20250	7703	7249	19770	4129	8283	6082	6747	26330	6586	7983	4685	25190	5631	5463	23670	7216	7400	7031	6682	14500	8627	5608	7100	17280	11790	30670	16960	23610	8994	56890	33650	4757	21220	6212	6491	47180	18790	12430	3667	2590	49590	7513	25510	2430	3229	15650	2116	3106	6574	11830	18970	4240	5885	6689	22260	7935	34470	1912	5691	7569	6110	5198	7977	2915	9622	11630	3921	5453	17040	16400	7162	29100	7984	4647	21550	8986	9341	13950	8678	13640	12830	10420	31840	8874	5648	8877	4341	10350	2447	19700	6218	5758	4812	18860	6010	5318	6533	7536	1545	1792	21710	32270	5286	4998	23080	4539	6697	39230	14370	14510	13870	5758	4637	5461	6759	14520	1589	4516	6755	4367	5318	4484	5539	7485	4912	8361	10760	13500	14330	21930	7152	7623	16390	8275	4985	5630	19360	14650	18500	4748	3562	20870	5324	15390	13010	10410	16840	4990	5346	2878	10480	9586	5076	2818	11010	6063	17360	7832	4027	953	27970	15510	5500	4741	4812	22550	24230	24300	21250	16920	6765	7607	5664	7772	4544	7895	6078	8450	4145	3850	6100	13500	27010	16270	4754	7954	23610	6525	7794	23640	5762	4993	6038	10100	6377	5080	11780
2021-02-24	2807	4811	8233	7825	9079	9552	11280	3735	22880	29430	16890	4133	17240	7800	7439	7971	12990	21780	96450	6565	17090	8917	5640	24270	4386	24710	6800	44380	10540	6307	27410	6760	13940	29530	5767	23830	5988	8976	6677	9493	16290	13400	5343	13640	6800	9763	8089	8149	15060	11560	12340	3609	8739	19680	20600	5856	4734	4119	7425	10790	3044	5034	13670	2491	35970	22360	2651	7577	30110	8094	6885	10040	3996	19080	2695	20960	11320	7636	25340	29660	2841	3903	4737	7981	5855	4337	16710	9044	8383	6448	5443	2918	7133	29200	12170	5079	6619	4797	5004	4904	7918	3000	4499	13140	7639	6209	3688	10020	5346	21680	7107	11540	4036	12520	4812	20270	7715	7266	19800	4137	8303	6095	6759	26360	6604	7993	4701	25250	5655	5474	23720	7252	7415	7043	6695	14510	8639	5640	7117	17330	11810	30790	17000	23640	9021	57090	33780	4762	21250	6232	6505	47280	18860	12440	3672	2600	49710	7553	25530	2437	3243	15680	2124	3111	6586	11890	19010	4248	5902	6724	22300	7959	34510	1915	5707	7592	6123	5216	8001	2922	9641	11680	3937	5480	17080	16460	7183	29200	8003	4658	21600	9019	9360	14030	8689	13660	12880	10440	31880	8909	5672	8885	4353	10360	2455	19760	6225	5768	4818	18940	6035	5331	6563	7544	1560	1798	21780	32410	5296	5020	23120	4555	6704	39330	14440	14560	13910	5771	4646	5472	6785	14570	1592	4537	6774	4377	5327	4491	5555	7503	4923	8384	10790	13550	14350	21950	7173	7639	16450	8300	4998	5647	19430	14710	18550	4768	3575	20940	5331	15400	13030	10440	16890	5013	5354	2890	10520	9612	5090	2823	11010	6076	17380	7838	4045	954	27980	15530	5509	4751	4821	22640	24280	24320	21280	16970	6783	7617	5672	7786	4564	7916	6103	8470	4160	3856	6116	13520	27050	16350	4765	7965	23660	6540	7805	23680	5782	5005	6058	10140	6392	5089	11800
2021-02-25	2811	4829	8253	7854	9124	9567	11310	3741	22920	29460	16950	4145	17250	7815	7468	7989	13020	21810	96730	6589	17120	8949	5662	24360	4403	24760	6812	44530	10560	6334	27450	6770	13960	29610	5781	23860	6002	8990	6701	9505	16340	13460	5353	13650	6824	9771	8102	8159	15090	11600	12360	3618	8747	19730	20650	5881	4753	4130	7454	10800	3062	5069	13710	2496	36090	22450	2655	7599	30150	8108	6913	10060	4009	19140	2705	21040	11360	7646	25400	29730	2849	3913	4749	7993	5866	4358	16760	9086	8401	6462	5461	2922	7145	29220	12180	5089	6648	4807	5023	4934	7930	3004	4510	13180	7671	6216	3700	10030	5359	21690	7116	11560	4048	12550	4831	20290	7728	7286	19830	4144	8322	6108	6771	26390	6624	8002	4718	25300	5678	5484	23770	7287	7425	7060	6708	14520	8653	5673	7138	17380	11840	30900	17050	23680	9043	57280	33910	4774	21270	6252	6519	47410	18910	12460	3677	2611	49840	7596	25550	2445	3257	15710	2134	3117	6599	11950	19050	4256	5930	6762	22350	7975	34540	1918	5730	7617	6137	5235	8023	2927	9667	11720	3954	5508	17130	16510	7204	29300	8033	4668	21660	9033	9377	14080	8701	13700	12940	10450	31910	8946	5695	8897	4365	10380	2463	19810	6237	5778	4825	19020	6059	5344	6593	7551	1574	1806	21860	32520	5304	5040	23170	4569	6711	39410	14500	14590	13980	5781	4656	5483	6813	14610	1594	4558	6793	4387	5336	4498	5565	7524	4933	8419	10820	13600	14380	21970	7193	7656	16520	8324	5012	5663	19490	14760	18580	4780	3595	21010	5336	15420	13050	10470	16950	5039	5363	2898	10570	9640	5104	2829	11020	6089	17400	7844	4059	955	28000	15570	5516	4761	4830	22720	24340	24350	21310	17020	6802	7628	5681	7799	4584	7934	6130	8490	4174	3860	6140	13540	27100	16420	4775	7976	23700	6555	7813	23750	5800	5015	6076	10170	6407	5108	11820

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-18 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-18