COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-18 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-18

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-18

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-2612-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-092021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-222021-01-0212-2112-2112-3012-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-01-1210-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-222021-01-0909-2712-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-2312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-0812-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0712-2112-3011-032021-01-112021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-272021-01-022021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-112021-01-1112-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-1012-2211-0912-2412-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-3012-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 77 477 588 191 59 326 133 111 108 232 423 1252 74 158 66 60 158 49 484 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 318 107 505 93 189 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 266 52 200 250 286 60 90 71 68 244 53 95 284 35 367 289 38 183 598 151 69 188 72 246 26 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 589 271 95 76 75 89 73 125 53 38 122 81 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 201 57 398 175 103 339 101 109 135 121 482 100 156 47 444 57 115 450 138 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 190 312 429 107 379 287 104 444 71 113 731 272 200 90 37 377 90 419 29 47 297 49 62 147 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 720 23 50 159 105 50 109 59 124 122 41 55 275 158 124 225 90 44 125 126 109 155 119 201 104 174 621 84 83 171 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 404 65 130 243 209 245 168 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 83 96 80 108 80 67 102 113 245 294 456 131 151 222 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 106 320 189 181 125 55 107 46 140 328 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 557 153 92 107 85 258 324 452 387 228 77 139 117 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 264 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 53 54 53 59 53 72 59 57 54 57 128 53 57 52 38 50 53 58 51 53 53 46 40 48 95 52 59 112 58 53 53 67 53 52 55 59 54 58 50 50 53 107 59 54 55 72 53 59 59 45 58 51 54 58 58 47 59 59 50 54 53 52 51 58 58 50 52 53 53 59 55 59 59 47 37 127 53 73 54 53 56 51 56 59 108 54 110 53 51 52 59 55 58 55 66 58 40 144 57 52 62 52 45 53 54 59 53 58 59 53 59 53 58 59 59 59 58 53 53 58 58 67 53 57 52 59 51 53 52 56 55 59 48 52 53 58 52 52 55 113 59 53 53 51 50 53 52 59 53 53 81 53 53 58 59 45 50 46 58 106 41 59 59 59 58 55 58 54 52 51 46 106 52 72 53 116 54 59 103 59 50 107 38 45 53 59 48 51 59 53 52 53 53 47 43 51 47 51 59 38 38 58 52 59 53 52 67 49 67 124 50 53 53 55 23 52 51 51 46 59 53 51 56 53 50 55 53 59 58 59 52 54 55 39 58 101 56 58 60 46 52 53 58 59 66 52 54 59 54 55 110 58 52 59 109 59 57 58 53 59 73 55 52 50 57 50 45 53 59 54 59 59 68 57 50 59 58 52 58 54 59 113 52 53 62 55 59 59 58 59 53 55 60 67 52 73 58 53 53 51 51 58 58 52 53 58 53 48 52 50 59 50 50 52
Last total 2781 4704 8108 7664 8809 9475 11041 3701 22685 29200 16534 4057 17152 7700 7246 7889 12808 21636 94413 6417 16889 8740 5505 23692 4284 24336 6721 43494 10409 6178 27187 6701 13826 29046 5708 23661 5890 8888 6525 9426 15968 13082 5288 13531 6645 9717 8006 8079 14854 11302 12262 3551 8669 19366 20267 5699 4633 4043 7265 10666 2934 4840 13487 2451 35274 21948 2625 7447 29862 7996 6734 9963 3902 18748 2631 20538 11016 7573 24972 29291 2788 3840 4643 7907 5769 4220 16412 8806 8276 6405 5348 2894 7046 28995 12107 5022 6430 4741 4910 4717 7872 2948 4423 12930 7456 6165 3625 9950 5277 21561 7045 11419 3951 12376 4691 20151 7628 7163 19622 4089 8181 6033 6687 26172 6476 7936 4592 24896 5515 5427 23414 7062 7312 6967 6605 14439 8556 5431 7004 17032 11652 30168 16746 23405 8861 56026 33062 4720 21066 6094 6434 46640 18472 12365 3646 2526 49009 7331 25394 2386 3177 15501 2069 3081 6518 11545 18752 4195 5795 6518 22042 7833 34237 1896 5612 7457 6040 5099 7858 2885 9515 11399 3839 5318 16803 16163 7063 28586 7821 4598 21257 8885 9235 13619 8616 13488 12594 10345 31680 8711 5525 8827 4275 10278 2404 19430 6170 5708 4790 18519 5877 5238 6379 7495 1485 1755 21356 31688 5238 4900 22843 4469 6663 38792 14049 14324 13631 5693 4588 5414 6624 14323 1574 4405 6660 4326 5263 4450 5467 7375 4867 8230 10619 13251 14206 21778 7038 7538 16080 8148 4921 5550 19048 14416 18300 4671 3491 20515 5284 15296 12926 10268 16562 4886 5301 2827 10241 9447 5012 2783 10958 5996 17247 7799 3939 947 27867 15360 5464 4690 4745 22141 23931 24114 21115 16736 6659 7548 5621 7707 4446 7807 5967 1128 8341 4077 3815 6012 13423 26746 15923 4682 7896 23387 6453 7733 23377 5666 4948 5939 9925 6307 5003 11688
Last daily increment 2 23 15 36 40 14 18 16 39 27 66 8 17 16 35 14 31 41 249 21 42 23 13 78 12 55 9 176 18 27 48 13 20 67 3 27 13 5 22 15 49 52 5 22 23 12 7 17 36 57 15 7 30 41 60 11 12 4 25 33 12 40 24 4 90 67 2 21 61 13 20 15 20 71 15 75 36 15 70 48 15 6 12 15 4 24 35 39 18 10 25 1 13 41 12 6 33 8 10 35 9 7 18 35 36 9 18 11 23 37 5 18 7 40 12 21 12 21 40 5 29 5 10 37 25 8 14 51 29 12 61 34 12 25 11 13 12 34 22 55 17 114 29 48 25 243 131 20 19 23 17 105 63 18 3 27 99 29 41 3 15 33 10 6 23 56 47 5 17 41 42 19 45 3 19 30 10 24 28 7 23 52 25 26 61 49 18 87 28 12 44 35 16 85 15 44 41 20 28 28 19 14 12 18 5 50 16 9 10 68 20 6 23 8 4 5 81 100 13 19 45 8 9 110 49 47 44 18 6 16 21 47 2 25 31 9 15 7 12 25 20 21 31 56 8 34 18 10 44 22 11 16 80 44 70 16 15 68 7 20 15 39 54 36 11 7 39 23 24 8 16 6 39 6 16 1 23 31 7 3 13 94 70 23 16 30 21 10 6 9 23 16 10 0 20 10 7 20 25 82 75 5 10 55 35 9 70 19 12 32 33 12 18 24
Last week 28 127 129 187 272 77 177 50 213 280 392 102 139 115 198 77 231 191 1656 144 213 163 113 543 104 438 97 956 87 137 310 76 125 427 86 153 84 66 181 89 373 332 68 120 144 48 101 73 231 330 106 29 130 354 373 145 72 52 160 168 76 211 183 26 625 476 38 124 301 80 154 83 101 389 61 524 271 73 479 388 59 53 60 105 50 118 364 212 123 42 127 26 79 195 75 55 196 52 116 175 63 52 85 218 191 46 107 84 116 168 67 153 49 159 118 156 80 134 229 50 151 49 87 203 160 78 106 359 156 52 355 200 90 88 58 73 94 182 126 330 137 678 207 228 202 1147 771 64 141 125 89 704 404 93 29 92 801 207 176 45 58 184 44 43 100 336 301 39 109 202 282 112 307 18 115 161 79 122 130 47 141 279 134 205 340 320 133 554 192 77 317 141 112 489 97 221 277 117 266 188 165 77 68 106 40 328 67 70 28 402 140 63 156 71 90 44 410 730 56 131 312 76 58 614 367 265 245 95 63 78 160 253 13 145 164 55 72 43 70 149 70 146 194 328 146 170 96 78 346 122 75 97 425 328 313 103 63 437 74 144 91 197 372 160 48 54 283 168 104 46 90 74 164 56 91 6 134 243 44 48 68 548 432 204 192 238 119 64 53 71 154 120 125 4 166 88 41 95 114 478 384 65 91 332 121 76 403 103 73 136 218 112 126 124
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2610-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2410-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1211-01 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0511-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-20 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1910-3111-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1111-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 79 72 95 163 99 54 235 137 55 71 320 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 28 55 31 32 55 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 42 52 59 360 152 86 540 254 529 611 61 73 391 51 35 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 63 43 67 237 235 84 182 435 113 66 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 136 38 31 65 41 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 18 61 34 27 21 82 19 33 55 10 32 16 56 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 94 20 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 13 16 6 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-19 to 2021-02-25

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-18 2781 4704 8108 7664 8809 9475 11041 3701 22685 29200 16534 4057 17152 7700 7246 7889 12808 21636 94413 6417 16889 8740 5505 23692 4284 24336 6721 43494 10409 6178 27187 6701 13826 29046 5708 23661 5890 8888 6525 9426 15968 13082 5288 13531 6645 9717 8006 8079 14854 11302 12262 3551 8669 19366 20267 5699 4633 4043 7265 10666 2934 4840 13487 2451 35274 21948 2625 7447 29862 7996 6734 9963 3902 18748 2631 20538 11016 7573 24972 29291 2788 3840 4643 7907 5769 4220 16412 8806 8276 6405 5348 2894 7046 28995 12107 5022 6430 4741 4910 4717 7872 2948 4423 12930 7456 6165 3625 9950 5277 21561 7045 11419 3951 12376 4691 20151 7628 7163 19622 4089 8181 6033 6687 26172 6476 7936 4592 24896 5515 5427 23414 7062 7312 6967 6605 14439 8556 5431 7004 17032 11652 30168 16746 23405 8861 56026 33062 4720 21066 6094 6434 46640 18472 12365 3646 2526 49009 7331 25394 2386 3177 15501 2069 3081 6518 11545 18752 4195 5795 6518 22042 7833 34237 1896 5612 7457 6040 5099 7858 2885 9515 11399 3839 5318 16803 16163 7063 28586 7821 4598 21257 8885 9235 13619 8616 13488 12594 10345 31680 8711 5525 8827 4275 10278 2404 19430 6170 5708 4790 18519 5877 5238 6379 7495 1485 1755 21356 31688 5238 4900 22843 4469 6663 38792 14049 14324 13631 5693 4588 5414 6624 14323 1574 4405 6660 4326 5263 4450 5467 7375 4867 8230 10619 13251 14206 21778 7038 7538 16080 8148 4921 5550 19048 14416 18300 4671 3491 20515 5284 15296 12926 10268 16562 4886 5301 2827 10241 9447 5012 2783 10958 5996 17247 7799 3939 947 27867 15360 5464 4690 4745 22141 23931 24114 21115 16736 6659 7548 5621 7707 4446 7807 5967 8341 4077 3815 6012 13423 26746 15923 4682 7896 23387 6453 7733 23377 5666 4948 5939 9925 6307 5003 11688
2021-02-19 2783 4738 8136 7709 8892 9491 11080 3708 22700 29220 16600 4073 17190 7710 7280 7941 12840 21650 94960 6442 16930 8807 5528 23850 4305 24460 6742 43670 10430 6242 27300 6712 13900 29320 5722 23670 5907 8928 6559 9454 16010 13140 5298 13560 6723 9751 8046 8091 14880 11340 12280 3559 8695 19430 20460 5724 4690 4055 7294 10680 2951 4875 13610 2457 35390 22000 2631 7488 29900 8024 6773 9980 3918 18810 2642 20630 11070 7591 25060 29460 2798 3851 4657 7925 5782 4241 16490 8892 8300 6444 5368 2897 7061 29010 12150 5027 6462 4751 4917 4769 7889 2968 4428 12970 7508 6196 3636 9970 5295 21600 7057 11450 3964 12390 4712 20180 7657 7183 19640 4093 8234 6054 6701 26210 6500 7955 4610 24940 5532 5447 23540 7119 7389 7023 6610 14440 8572 5466 7057 17100 11690 30310 16790 23440 8925 56310 33260 4730 21110 6117 6449 46710 18550 12400 3651 2537 49180 7411 25420 2394 3208 15540 2072 3087 6540 11640 18810 4205 5822 6570 22080 7853 34300 1899 5621 7481 6052 5119 7882 2895 9544 11450 3858 5343 16820 16250 7086 28690 7881 4612 21360 8982 9255 13720 8650 13540 12690 10350 31710 8780 5552 8867 4287 10300 2413 19520 6191 5719 4804 18640 5902 5252 6409 7508 1496 1763 21490 31820 5249 4928 22900 4483 6676 38920 14180 14430 13780 5728 4598 5427 6673 14360 1577 4429 6682 4337 5268 4474 5481 7397 4908 8327 10650 13360 14220 21820 7058 7554 16240 8205 4947 5568 19120 14440 18360 4698 3506 20630 5284 15310 12970 10300 16650 4918 5315 2837 10290 9487 5030 2790 10980 6017 17270 7822 3957 950 27890 15380 5503 4696 4759 22260 23990 24170 21170 16780 6680 7568 5633 7726 4470 7857 5991 8385 4091 3825 6080 13460 26810 16080 4695 7910 23470 6472 7749 23440 5673 4982 5963 9960 6323 5013 11710
2021-02-20 2793 4758 8148 7734 8942 9504 11190 3719 22720 29260 16660 4105 17230 7730 7337 7964 12890 21680 95280 6482 16970 8848 5586 23930 4326 24540 6769 43800 10470 6279 27370 6725 13930 29470 5737 23730 5949 9007 6586 9473 16050 13180 5317 13620 6771 9773 8071 8106 14930 11380 12300 3587 8732 19470 20560 5777 4722 4095 7344 10700 2979 4932 13660 2477 35620 22040 2644 7516 29970 8084 6804 10000 3942 18850 2665 20690 11210 7614 25110 29560 2812 3873 4705 7952 5832 4275 16540 8940 8313 6462 5384 2901 7099 29070 12190 5040 6511 4756 4923 4804 7898 2980 4439 13040 7539 6214 3651 10010 5315 21670 7079 11490 3999 12420 4744 20230 7676 7205 19690 4102 8276 6066 6718 26250 6533 7969 4650 25010 5550 5455 23620 7175 7440 7053 6641 14460 8593 5529 7075 17150 11780 30420 16900 23530 8980 56520 33410 4756 21230 6176 6461 46770 18670 12420 3660 2547 49270 7449 25470 2414 3226 15610 2079 3099 6557 11710 18910 4226 5842 6598 22120 7902 34400 1904 5623 7495 6067 5155 7921 2905 9560 11520 3875 5368 16850 16300 7120 28900 7929 4629 21440 9048 9310 13810 8675 13570 12750 10390 31760 8830 5602 8880 4314 10320 2432 19590 6210 5733 4814 18710 5952 5297 6448 7527 1505 1772 21580 32110 5271 4952 22970 4516 6698 39020 14270 14500 13860 5751 4615 5445 6711 14400 1586 4467 6698 4352 5279 4484 5517 7421 4921 8382 10690 13440 14250 21910 7118 7580 16330 8235 4968 5590 19170 14470 18430 4719 3538 20700 5291 15340 13000 10370 16710 4950 5344 2863 10390 9512 5053 2809 11000 6062 17290 7843 4002 951 27930 15400 5528 4717 4792 22330 24010 24280 21190 16810 6723 7608 5655 7768 4506 7885 6046 8420 4105 3839 6120 13480 26870 16180 4737 7925 23540 6485 7762 23490 5695 5003 5970 10050 6335 5030 11750
2021-02-21 2799 4779 8167 7757 8983 9505 11270 3729 22750 29290 16720 4130 17250 7746 7383 7988 12930 21690 95500 6514 16980 8876 5626 24020 4341 24590 6793 43940 10500 6308 27430 6737 13960 29590 5738 23760 5979 9064 6611 9488 16100 13210 5332 13670 6812 9787 8094 8120 14970 11420 12320 3606 8764 19500 20650 5816 4741 4122 7384 10710 3001 4978 13720 2490 35790 22050 2653 7532 30020 8126 6830 10020 3962 18890 2682 20770 11310 7634 25150 29640 2824 3890 4736 7975 5866 4303 16580 8977 8324 6474 5394 2905 7124 29100 12220 5049 6552 4763 4923 4830 7903 2990 4447 13100 7570 6226 3664 10040 5328 21730 7096 11530 4023 12440 4771 20260 7684 7227 19720 4109 8310 6071 6734 26280 6561 7980 4679 25070 5567 5462 23690 7201 7475 7072 6660 14480 8613 5579 7091 17180 11840 30520 16980 23600 9015 56680 33530 4774 21310 6218 6474 46800 18770 12440 3667 2559 49370 7489 25500 2428 3241 15660 2085 3108 6569 11760 18980 4242 5853 6620 22160 7937 34490 1908 5625 7514 6081 5183 7953 2910 9583 11570 3892 5393 16860 16350 7150 29060 7968 4644 21490 9096 9349 13880 8690 13580 12800 10410 31800 8858 5641 8895 4334 10340 2446 19640 6224 5746 4821 18780 5991 5328 6482 7542 1515 1780 21650 32330 5287 4969 23030 4540 6715 39120 14330 14550 13920 5766 4629 5459 6736 14430 1593 4497 6718 4365 5288 4495 5543 7443 4934 8421 10730 13500 14270 21980 7159 7601 16420 8254 4983 5611 19220 14490 18490 4736 3562 20760 5296 15360 13010 10410 16760 4973 5364 2881 10470 9522 5074 2822 11020 6095 17310 7862 4034 953 27970 15400 5543 4731 4815 22430 24010 24360 21200 16820 6755 7637 5671 7798 4536 7906 6087 8449 4119 3850 6138 13490 26930 16240 4765 7932 23600 6501 7766 23510 5711 5017 5977 10110 6345 5042 11780
2021-02-22 2803 4815 8191 7787 9068 9517 11320 3737 22770 29320 16790 4150 17290 7758 7422 8010 12970 21710 95950 6543 17020 8909 5658 24160 4367 24690 6814 44140 10520 6346 27510 6748 14000 29730 5748 23780 6003 9109 6650 9519 16180 13290 5345 13700 6854 9804 8122 8134 15010 11490 12340 3619 8791 19580 20780 5849 4768 4142 7419 10720 3020 5018 13780 2500 35940 22120 2660 7545 30070 8160 6866 10030 3980 18950 2696 20870 11390 7651 25240 29750 2834 3903 4760 7996 5890 4326 16640 9036 8339 6487 5420 2908 7144 29130 12250 5055 6587 4771 4942 4874 7909 3002 4455 13140 7617 6239 3688 10060 5353 21770 7110 11560 4042 12450 4794 20290 7708 7248 19750 4113 8348 6084 6747 26310 6587 7997 4703 25120 5585 5476 23790 7249 7523 7093 6673 14490 8630 5620 7123 17260 11890 30650 17040 23650 9064 56900 33690 4789 21370 6250 6488 46860 18860 12460 3673 2578 49540 7544 25540 2439 3255 15700 2089 3116 6584 11830 19050 4255 5863 6672 22200 7966 34560 1912 5635 7534 6093 5207 7980 2919 9608 11630 3910 5432 16890 16420 7176 29190 8004 4658 21560 9151 9379 13960 8713 13620 12860 10430 31830 8903 5673 8914 4350 10350 2457 19730 6234 5757 4828 18860 6023 5351 6514 7556 1525 1787 21740 32500 5300 4995 23090 4560 6730 39240 14420 14610 13970 5796 4642 5471 6779 14470 1598 4524 6739 4377 5294 4506 5562 7463 4957 8476 10760 13570 14280 22030 7191 7618 16500 8281 5004 5629 19310 14530 18550 4755 3581 20860 5301 15380 13030 10450 16830 4998 5381 2895 10540 9544 5093 2832 11040 6121 17340 7874 4058 954 27990 15410 5554 4740 4834 22520 24100 24420 21250 16860 6782 7661 5684 7822 4562 7933 6119 8483 4133 3860 6162 13520 27040 16330 4787 7960 23690 6517 7776 23570 5721 5038 5997 10160 6367 5061 11810
2021-02-23 2807 4859 8230 7815 9119 9534 11380 3745 22780 29350 16860 4169 17320 7770 7460 8029 13000 21730 96440 6571 17050 8954 5688 24260 4385 24790 6834 44310 10550 6377 27600 6759 14030 29880 5755 23810 6025 9152 6688 9536 16240 13340 5356 13730 6884 9816 8145 8147 15040 11540 12360 3632 8818 19670 20890 5880 4787 4160 7452 10730 3039 5057 13830 2509 36080 22140 2667 7562 30110 8192 6894 10050 3997 18990 2710 20950 11460 7668 25290 29870 2844 3916 4781 8016 5911 4349 16710 9084 8373 6498 5443 2911 7163 29160 12270 5060 6622 4779 4943 4915 7916 3013 4462 13190 7655 6256 3709 10080 5370 21820 7125 11600 4060 12470 4817 20320 7712 7269 19770 4117 8387 6108 6761 26350 6612 8014 4725 25160 5603 5495 23880 7288 7569 7111 6686 14500 8648 5660 7152 17320 11940 30770 17100 23700 9112 57050 33840 4802 21430 6280 6502 46990 18940 12480 3679 2594 49680 7580 25570 2449 3268 15740 2093 3124 6603 11900 19110 4268 5874 6706 22240 7993 34620 1915 5644 7555 6104 5231 8006 2930 9645 11680 3927 5463 16930 16490 7203 29320 8038 4672 21620 9200 9407 14080 8735 13680 12920 10440 31860 8940 5704 8941 4366 10370 2467 19790 6246 5768 4833 18930 6053 5372 6545 7568 1536 1794 21820 32670 5313 5018 23140 4578 6744 39360 14500 14660 14020 5818 4654 5483 6813 14520 1602 4550 6761 4389 5300 4515 5581 7484 4978 8504 10800 13640 14300 22080 7220 7635 16590 8310 5018 5647 19390 14550 18600 4776 3599 20940 5305 15400 13060 10490 16880 5029 5397 2908 10600 9555 5112 2842 11050 6146 17360 7887 4081 954 28020 15430 5567 4749 4851 22620 24180 24480 21310 16880 6807 7684 5696 7844 4588 7961 6150 8512 4147 3869 6175 13540 27120 16400 4806 7975 23760 6533 7788 23650 5731 5052 6017 10210 6385 5066 11840
2021-02-24 2810 4880 8245 7849 9150 9540 11420 3753 22800 29370 16930 4187 17340 7781 7494 8040 13040 21740 96740 6597 17080 8975 5713 24350 4399 24850 6854 44460 10570 6403 27640 6770 14050 29990 5757 23830 6044 9188 6715 9543 16300 13400 5367 13760 6917 9825 8167 8159 15070 11600 12370 3642 8842 19730 20990 5908 4797 4175 7483 10740 3056 5093 13870 2516 36200 22160 2673 7572 30150 8219 6926 10060 4013 19040 2721 21030 11520 7683 25350 29950 2853 3927 4798 8034 5928 4371 16800 9112 8389 6500 5464 2913 7178 29180 12290 5065 6655 4788 4951 4947 7916 3026 4469 13230 7686 6270 3723 10100 5388 21850 7137 11620 4074 12490 4839 20350 7717 7290 19790 4120 8415 6114 6774 26380 6635 8025 4745 25210 5620 5503 23930 7322 7601 7131 6694 14500 8665 5697 7168 17370 11980 30890 17150 23740 9149 57230 33950 4814 21470 6305 6517 47030 19020 12490 3684 2603 49810 7618 25600 2458 3277 15780 2097 3131 6622 11950 19170 4279 5881 6740 22270 8016 34680 1918 5650 7577 6115 5252 8030 2937 9661 11720 3945 5494 16950 16550 7227 29430 8059 4686 21670 9256 9430 14150 8749 13710 12970 10450 31890 8967 5732 8957 4379 10390 2476 19840 6255 5778 4839 19000 6080 5389 6575 7580 1547 1801 21870 32810 5324 5038 23200 4594 6756 39470 14560 14700 14060 5831 4664 5495 6835 14560 1606 4573 6783 4400 5306 4523 5597 7503 4999 8531 10830 13690 14310 22120 7245 7650 16650 8333 5026 5664 19450 14580 18660 4798 3615 21010 5309 15420 13070 10530 16940 5051 5410 2920 10650 9565 5130 2850 11070 6168 17380 7895 4101 956 28040 15450 5578 4756 4865 22710 24220 24520 21340 16900 6830 7704 5707 7863 4612 7985 6176 8540 4161 3878 6195 13550 27180 16460 4822 7990 23810 6550 7795 23670 5739 5072 6024 10250 6398 5072 11860
2021-02-25 2813 4900 8262 7881 9192 9554 11460 3760 22820 29400 16990 4203 17370 7791 7527 8055 13070 21750 96980 6622 17120 9002 5737 24430 4412 24920 6873 44630 10590 6430 27700 6780 14070 30050 5767 23840 6061 9223 6739 9559 16350 13450 5377 13790 6940 9836 8180 8171 15100 11650 12390 3651 8867 19770 21040 5935 4811 4189 7512 10750 3073 5128 13900 2522 36320 22240 2678 7599 30180 8245 6950 10070 4028 19120 2732 21120 11580 7699 25430 30010 2862 3938 4813 8052 5943 4392 16840 9151 8405 6518 5488 2916 7193 29200 12310 5069 6687 4797 4966 4979 7934 3032 4475 13260 7722 6281 3739 10120 5408 21890 7150 11650 4088 12500 4859 20380 7733 7311 19810 4123 8440 6124 6786 26410 6658 8034 4763 25250 5638 5514 23990 7356 7610 7156 6702 14510 8682 5731 7196 17430 12020 31000 17190 23780 9179 57440 34080 4825 21520 6329 6531 47130 19100 12520 3689 2623 49920 7656 25630 2467 3292 15820 2100 3137 6643 12010 19220 4289 5903 6776 22310 8038 34740 1921 5671 7600 6125 5272 8053 2945 9687 11770 3963 5523 17010 16600 7251 29530 8088 4699 21720 9280 9451 14220 8767 13750 13020 10460 31920 9001 5758 8971 4392 10400 2484 19890 6270 5788 4847 19070 6106 5405 6605 7592 1558 1808 21950 32950 5335 5058 23250 4608 6768 39570 14610 14750 14110 5848 4675 5506 6861 14600 1610 4597 6805 4411 5311 4533 5611 7522 5013 8560 10860 13750 14320 22160 7267 7664 16700 8359 5038 5680 19530 14630 18720 4812 3630 21080 5312 15440 13090 10560 17000 5086 5423 2931 10700 9599 5148 2858 11090 6189 17420 7901 4119 957 28070 15490 5588 4763 4878 22800 24290 24570 21370 16940 6851 7723 5718 7880 4635 8005 6200 8564 4175 3886 6218 13580 27260 16530 4837 7998 23860 6568 7804 23750 5745 5085 6053 10290 6410 5092 11890

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-19 to 2021-02-25

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-18 2781 4704 8108 7664 8809 9475 11041 3701 22685 29200 16534 4057 17152 7700 7246 7889 12808 21636 94413 6417 16889 8740 5505 23692 4284 24336 6721 43494 10409 6178 27187 6701 13826 29046 5708 23661 5890 8888 6525 9426 15968 13082 5288 13531 6645 9717 8006 8079 14854 11302 12262 3551 8669 19366 20267 5699 4633 4043 7265 10666 2934 4840 13487 2451 35274 21948 2625 7447 29862 7996 6734 9963 3902 18748 2631 20538 11016 7573 24972 29291 2788 3840 4643 7907 5769 4220 16412 8806 8276 6405 5348 2894 7046 28995 12107 5022 6430 4741 4910 4717 7872 2948 4423 12930 7456 6165 3625 9950 5277 21561 7045 11419 3951 12376 4691 20151 7628 7163 19622 4089 8181 6033 6687 26172 6476 7936 4592 24896 5515 5427 23414 7062 7312 6967 6605 14439 8556 5431 7004 17032 11652 30168 16746 23405 8861 56026 33062 4720 21066 6094 6434 46640 18472 12365 3646 2526 49009 7331 25394 2386 3177 15501 2069 3081 6518 11545 18752 4195 5795 6518 22042 7833 34237 1896 5612 7457 6040 5099 7858 2885 9515 11399 3839 5318 16803 16163 7063 28586 7821 4598 21257 8885 9235 13619 8616 13488 12594 10345 31680 8711 5525 8827 4275 10278 2404 19430 6170 5708 4790 18519 5877 5238 6379 7495 1485 1755 21356 31688 5238 4900 22843 4469 6663 38792 14049 14324 13631 5693 4588 5414 6624 14323 1574 4405 6660 4326 5263 4450 5467 7375 4867 8230 10619 13251 14206 21778 7038 7538 16080 8148 4921 5550 19048 14416 18300 4671 3491 20515 5284 15296 12926 10268 16562 4886 5301 2827 10241 9447 5012 2783 10958 5996 17247 7799 3939 947 27867 15360 5464 4690 4745 22141 23931 24114 21115 16736 6659 7548 5621 7707 4446 7807 5967 8341 4077 3815 6012 13423 26746 15923 4682 7896 23387 6453 7733 23377 5666 4948 5939 9925 6307 5003 11688
2021-02-19 2785 4722 8124 7695 8857 9484 11080 3710 22730 29240 16600 4069 17170 7717 7278 7902 12840 21670 94760 6442 16920 8769 5529 23790 4298 24410 6734 43640 10430 6203 27230 6713 13850 29130 5720 23690 5908 8900 6551 9436 16010 13130 5298 13550 6676 9727 8019 8094 14890 11350 12270 3562 8689 19410 20340 5721 4651 4055 7293 10690 2950 4872 13520 2458 35390 22030 2630 7474 29910 8013 6756 9980 3920 18800 2644 20620 11070 7584 25040 29350 2798 3851 4654 7918 5781 4244 16470 8848 8295 6417 5369 2897 7062 29030 12120 5033 6463 4751 4925 4742 7880 2958 4438 12950 7488 6173 3635 9960 5292 21590 7054 11440 3964 12400 4710 20180 7647 7183 19660 4097 8205 6038 6697 26200 6499 7945 4609 24960 5540 5434 23470 7089 7331 6992 6621 14450 8571 5467 7029 17080 11680 30270 16780 23450 8884 56240 33180 4730 21100 6118 6447 46720 18540 12380 3649 2541 49130 7369 25420 2394 3186 15530 2078 3087 6535 11600 18800 4204 5810 6558 22090 7851 34280 1899 5632 7481 6052 5119 7882 2892 9531 11450 3859 5345 16850 16210 7080 28690 7858 4608 21320 8916 9256 13680 8632 13520 12640 10360 31710 8744 5550 8840 4287 10290 2412 19480 6180 5718 4795 18590 5902 5251 6411 7504 1494 1762 21440 31790 5248 4918 22890 4481 6672 38890 14110 14370 13680 5705 4597 5423 6651 14360 1577 4430 6684 4334 5277 4458 5484 7395 4880 8259 10650 13300 14230 21810 7060 7554 16140 8177 4932 5563 19120 14460 18350 4690 3506 20590 5294 15320 12950 10300 16620 4910 5311 2836 10280 9478 5026 2791 10970 6009 17280 7806 3956 949 27890 15400 5475 4698 4764 22240 24000 24150 21140 16770 6680 7558 5626 7720 4468 7826 5986 8363 4090 3823 6038 13440 26800 16010 4696 7908 23430 6472 7743 23430 5682 4960 5965 9960 6321 5019 11710
2021-02-20 2791 4737 8137 7716 8889 9495 11120 3715 22760 29280 16660 4082 17180 7735 7312 7909 12870 21690 95110 6468 16950 8799 5550 23860 4316 24460 6750 43770 10450 6221 27250 6721 13870 29200 5732 23720 5924 8919 6572 9445 16060 13180 5307 13570 6700 9735 8029 8104 14930 11380 12290 3573 8700 19450 20380 5751 4666 4071 7316 10710 2970 4904 13540 2466 35510 22090 2634 7497 29960 8033 6779 9990 3936 18850 2655 20670 11120 7595 25090 29400 2807 3862 4672 7930 5802 4260 16510 8882 8310 6423 5381 2902 7079 29070 12130 5042 6494 4759 4940 4763 7887 2965 4452 12990 7516 6181 3642 9980 5303 21610 7066 11460 3982 12420 4732 20200 7662 7198 19690 4107 8224 6049 6710 26230 6517 7953 4629 25020 5562 5438 23510 7123 7346 7003 6639 14470 8585 5506 7041 17130 11710 30360 16830 23490 8911 56400 33280 4738 21140 6145 6457 46810 18600 12390 3653 2549 49220 7400 25440 2404 3197 15570 2090 3092 6544 11660 18840 4213 5830 6584 22130 7873 34320 1903 5644 7499 6068 5140 7908 2899 9547 11490 3873 5368 16900 16250 7101 28810 7889 4618 21380 8933 9278 13740 8643 13540 12680 10380 31740 8779 5576 8846 4302 10300 2422 19520 6189 5728 4800 18650 5932 5272 6441 7512 1505 1771 21500 31920 5260 4938 22930 4497 6680 38960 14180 14410 13730 5718 4607 5431 6677 14400 1581 4452 6696 4342 5290 4464 5498 7416 4885 8279 10680 13350 14250 21850 7086 7572 16200 8202 4945 5581 19170 14510 18390 4702 3522 20660 5300 15330 12960 10330 16680 4930 5321 2847 10340 9506 5039 2799 10980 6024 17290 7813 3975 950 27910 15430 5484 4709 4777 22300 24040 24200 21160 16800 6703 7573 5637 7733 4487 7840 6008 8386 4104 3831 6056 13450 26840 16080 4713 7920 23470 6483 7757 23480 5705 4969 5981 10000 6333 5035 11730
2021-02-21 2796 4752 8155 7731 8921 9505 11160 3720 22780 29310 16710 4095 17190 7751 7343 7921 12900 21710 95380 6493 16970 8826 5569 23950 4331 24510 6763 43900 10470 6236 27280 6731 13880 29250 5738 23750 5938 8934 6591 9456 16110 13230 5315 13590 6723 9739 8041 8115 14960 11420 12300 3582 8709 19490 20430 5778 4680 4084 7339 10730 2988 4933 13570 2473 35620 22140 2638 7514 29990 8049 6801 10000 3951 18900 2665 20740 11170 7606 25140 29440 2816 3872 4684 7941 5817 4280 16560 8914 8323 6427 5390 2906 7094 29100 12140 5049 6524 4768 4952 4784 7896 2971 4462 13020 7544 6187 3649 9990 5309 21630 7076 11480 3997 12440 4751 20220 7676 7212 19710 4114 8242 6056 6722 26270 6535 7960 4646 25080 5585 5441 23550 7145 7358 7009 6654 14480 8599 5542 7056 17170 11740 30450 16870 23530 8931 56540 33370 4744 21170 6169 6468 46910 18660 12400 3658 2560 49320 7434 25470 2413 3207 15600 2099 3096 6552 11710 18880 4222 5848 6605 22180 7892 34360 1906 5658 7523 6083 5160 7932 2901 9570 11540 3889 5393 16940 16290 7122 28910 7921 4628 21430 8945 9298 13790 8653 13560 12730 10400 31770 8808 5600 8851 4316 10310 2431 19560 6198 5739 4803 18700 5959 5288 6471 7518 1516 1777 21560 32010 5268 4954 22980 4512 6686 39040 14240 14440 13770 5727 4617 5440 6701 14430 1584 4474 6710 4349 5299 4471 5509 7436 4889 8300 10710 13390 14280 21880 7109 7590 16250 8225 4958 5598 19230 14550 18430 4714 3532 20720 5307 15350 12970 10360 16720 4946 5330 2857 10370 9533 5051 2805 10990 6037 17310 7822 3993 951 27930 15450 5490 4720 4788 22380 24080 24230 21180 16840 6723 7585 5645 7746 4506 7855 6030 8405 4117 3836 6069 13460 26890 16130 4727 7930 23510 6493 7765 23510 5720 4974 5995 10040 6344 5048 11750
2021-02-22 2800 4773 8179 7761 8998 9518 11200 3725 22820 29350 16770 4109 17210 7768 7375 7938 12930 21740 95740 6517 17010 8855 5596 24070 4352 24570 6778 44070 10500 6263 27320 6741 13910 29340 5750 23780 5957 8949 6620 9473 16170 13290 5326 13610 6750 9747 8060 8128 15000 11470 12310 3591 8720 19550 20490 5805 4698 4095 7374 10750 3008 4966 13600 2479 35750 22230 2642 7533 30030 8064 6830 10020 3966 18960 2676 20820 11210 7616 25210 29520 2824 3884 4702 7957 5831 4300 16610 8960 8337 6434 5408 2910 7107 29130 12150 5061 6556 4778 4971 4822 7904 2981 4474 13060 7578 6193 3664 10000 5323 21650 7087 11500 4011 12460 4772 20240 7691 7232 19740 4121 8262 6066 6735 26300 6562 7971 4665 25130 5609 5451 23610 7180 7378 7020 6669 14490 8613 5575 7077 17230 11760 30570 16920 23570 8964 56740 33520 4751 21200 6191 6481 47020 18720 12410 3663 2576 49470 7477 25490 2421 3216 15620 2108 3101 6561 11770 18930 4231 5865 6654 22220 7912 34410 1909 5676 7546 6097 5179 7955 2908 9593 11590 3905 5425 16990 16350 7142 29010 7954 4637 21490 8966 9323 13860 8665 13590 12780 10410 31810 8843 5624 8861 4329 10330 2440 19640 6206 5749 4808 18790 5985 5303 6500 7527 1532 1785 21640 32140 5276 4976 23030 4526 6692 39140 14300 14480 13820 5744 4627 5450 6733 14470 1587 4495 6734 4359 5308 4477 5523 7460 4899 8338 10730 13440 14310 21900 7131 7607 16310 8248 4974 5614 19300 14600 18460 4730 3548 20790 5316 15370 12990 10390 16780 4966 5338 2869 10430 9560 5063 2812 11000 6050 17340 7827 4010 952 27950 15480 5495 4731 4801 22460 24150 24260 21220 16880 6745 7596 5655 7760 4525 7873 6058 8432 4131 3842 6085 13480 26960 16200 4742 7942 23560 6508 7778 23570 5741 4984 6017 10070 6362 5068 11760
2021-02-23 2804 4794 8211 7793 9039 9535 11230 3730 22850 29380 16830 4120 17220 7785 7410 7954 12960 21760 96160 6541 17050 8887 5616 24170 4369 24650 6788 44220 10520 6285 27370 6750 13920 29440 5762 23800 5972 8963 6651 9484 16230 13350 5335 13620 6772 9753 8075 8139 15030 11510 12330 3600 8730 19630 20550 5830 4716 4108 7401 10770 3025 5003 13640 2485 35860 22290 2646 7557 30070 8079 6856 10030 3979 19020 2686 20890 11270 7626 25260 29590 2832 3893 4723 7969 5843 4317 16660 9005 8364 6442 5427 2914 7120 29170 12160 5071 6592 4787 4984 4862 7913 2988 4487 13100 7607 6202 3677 10010 5333 21660 7097 11520 4024 12490 4792 20250 7703 7249 19770 4129 8283 6082 6747 26330 6586 7983 4685 25190 5631 5463 23670 7216 7400 7031 6682 14500 8627 5608 7100 17280 11790 30670 16960 23610 8994 56890 33650 4757 21220 6212 6491 47180 18790 12430 3667 2590 49590 7513 25510 2430 3229 15650 2116 3106 6574 11830 18970 4240 5885 6689 22260 7935 34470 1912 5691 7569 6110 5198 7977 2915 9622 11630 3921 5453 17040 16400 7162 29100 7984 4647 21550 8986 9341 13950 8678 13640 12830 10420 31840 8874 5648 8877 4341 10350 2447 19700 6218 5758 4812 18860 6010 5318 6533 7536 1545 1792 21710 32270 5286 4998 23080 4539 6697 39230 14370 14510 13870 5758 4637 5461 6759 14520 1589 4516 6755 4367 5318 4484 5539 7485 4912 8361 10760 13500 14330 21930 7152 7623 16390 8275 4985 5630 19360 14650 18500 4748 3562 20870 5324 15390 13010 10410 16840 4990 5346 2878 10480 9586 5076 2818 11010 6063 17360 7832 4027 953 27970 15510 5500 4741 4812 22550 24230 24300 21250 16920 6765 7607 5664 7772 4544 7895 6078 8450 4145 3850 6100 13500 27010 16270 4754 7954 23610 6525 7794 23640 5762 4993 6038 10100 6377 5080 11780
2021-02-24 2807 4811 8233 7825 9079 9552 11280 3735 22880 29430 16890 4133 17240 7800 7439 7971 12990 21780 96450 6565 17090 8917 5640 24270 4386 24710 6800 44380 10540 6307 27410 6760 13940 29530 5767 23830 5988 8976 6677 9493 16290 13400 5343 13640 6800 9763 8089 8149 15060 11560 12340 3609 8739 19680 20600 5856 4734 4119 7425 10790 3044 5034 13670 2491 35970 22360 2651 7577 30110 8094 6885 10040 3996 19080 2695 20960 11320 7636 25340 29660 2841 3903 4737 7981 5855 4337 16710 9044 8383 6448 5443 2918 7133 29200 12170 5079 6619 4797 5004 4904 7918 3000 4499 13140 7639 6209 3688 10020 5346 21680 7107 11540 4036 12520 4812 20270 7715 7266 19800 4137 8303 6095 6759 26360 6604 7993 4701 25250 5655 5474 23720 7252 7415 7043 6695 14510 8639 5640 7117 17330 11810 30790 17000 23640 9021 57090 33780 4762 21250 6232 6505 47280 18860 12440 3672 2600 49710 7553 25530 2437 3243 15680 2124 3111 6586 11890 19010 4248 5902 6724 22300 7959 34510 1915 5707 7592 6123 5216 8001 2922 9641 11680 3937 5480 17080 16460 7183 29200 8003 4658 21600 9019 9360 14030 8689 13660 12880 10440 31880 8909 5672 8885 4353 10360 2455 19760 6225 5768 4818 18940 6035 5331 6563 7544 1560 1798 21780 32410 5296 5020 23120 4555 6704 39330 14440 14560 13910 5771 4646 5472 6785 14570 1592 4537 6774 4377 5327 4491 5555 7503 4923 8384 10790 13550 14350 21950 7173 7639 16450 8300 4998 5647 19430 14710 18550 4768 3575 20940 5331 15400 13030 10440 16890 5013 5354 2890 10520 9612 5090 2823 11010 6076 17380 7838 4045 954 27980 15530 5509 4751 4821 22640 24280 24320 21280 16970 6783 7617 5672 7786 4564 7916 6103 8470 4160 3856 6116 13520 27050 16350 4765 7965 23660 6540 7805 23680 5782 5005 6058 10140 6392 5089 11800
2021-02-25 2811 4829 8253 7854 9124 9567 11310 3741 22920 29460 16950 4145 17250 7815 7468 7989 13020 21810 96730 6589 17120 8949 5662 24360 4403 24760 6812 44530 10560 6334 27450 6770 13960 29610 5781 23860 6002 8990 6701 9505 16340 13460 5353 13650 6824 9771 8102 8159 15090 11600 12360 3618 8747 19730 20650 5881 4753 4130 7454 10800 3062 5069 13710 2496 36090 22450 2655 7599 30150 8108 6913 10060 4009 19140 2705 21040 11360 7646 25400 29730 2849 3913 4749 7993 5866 4358 16760 9086 8401 6462 5461 2922 7145 29220 12180 5089 6648 4807 5023 4934 7930 3004 4510 13180 7671 6216 3700 10030 5359 21690 7116 11560 4048 12550 4831 20290 7728 7286 19830 4144 8322 6108 6771 26390 6624 8002 4718 25300 5678 5484 23770 7287 7425 7060 6708 14520 8653 5673 7138 17380 11840 30900 17050 23680 9043 57280 33910 4774 21270 6252 6519 47410 18910 12460 3677 2611 49840 7596 25550 2445 3257 15710 2134 3117 6599 11950 19050 4256 5930 6762 22350 7975 34540 1918 5730 7617 6137 5235 8023 2927 9667 11720 3954 5508 17130 16510 7204 29300 8033 4668 21660 9033 9377 14080 8701 13700 12940 10450 31910 8946 5695 8897 4365 10380 2463 19810 6237 5778 4825 19020 6059 5344 6593 7551 1574 1806 21860 32520 5304 5040 23170 4569 6711 39410 14500 14590 13980 5781 4656 5483 6813 14610 1594 4558 6793 4387 5336 4498 5565 7524 4933 8419 10820 13600 14380 21970 7193 7656 16520 8324 5012 5663 19490 14760 18580 4780 3595 21010 5336 15420 13050 10470 16950 5039 5363 2898 10570 9640 5104 2829 11020 6089 17400 7844 4059 955 28000 15570 5516 4761 4830 22720 24340 24350 21310 17020 6802 7628 5681 7799 4584 7934 6130 8490 4174 3860 6140 13540 27100 16420 4775 7976 23700 6555 7813 23750 5800 5015 6076 10170 6407 5108 11820

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.