COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-20

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-12	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-12	12-21	12-21	12-31	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-01-12	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-06	12-21	12-23	12-27	12-18	12-28	2021-01-13	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	2021-01-11	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	2021-01-13	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	2021-01-13	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	2021-01-02	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-12	2021-01-11	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-12	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-26	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-23	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	77	477	588	191	59	326	133	109	108	232	422	1251	74	158	66	60	158	49	485	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	317	107	505	93	189	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	265	52	200	250	285	62	90	71	66	244	53	95	283	35	367	289	38	183	598	151	69	188	72	246	27	249	187	118	323	538	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	589	271	95	74	53	89	73	125	53	39	122	80	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	201	57	398	175	103	339	101	109	135	121	482	100	156	47	444	57	115	450	138	84	133	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	312	429	107	379	287	104	444	71	113	731	272	200	90	37	377	90	420	29	46	297	49	62	148	118	362	79	105	63	123	85	720	23	51	159	105	50	108	59	124	122	42	55	275	158	124	225	90	44	125	126	109	155	119	201	104	174	621	85	82	171	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	34	26	163	450	42	82	404	65	130	243	209	245	167	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	82	96	78	108	80	67	102	114	245	294	456	131	151	222	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	201	106	320	189	181	125	55	107	46	140	328	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	557	153	92	107	85	258	324	451	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	263	83	149	432	106	140	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	55	56	55	61	55	74	61	59	56	59	130	55	59	54	40	52	55	60	53	55	55	48	39	50	97	54	61	114	60	55	55	69	55	54	57	61	56	60	52	52	55	109	61	56	57	74	55	61	61	47	60	53	56	60	61	39	61	61	51	56	55	54	53	60	60	52	54	55	55	61	57	61	61	49	39	129	55	75	56	55	58	53	58	61	110	56	112	55	53	54	61	57	60	57	68	60	45	61	59	55	64	54	38	55	56	61	55	60	61	55	61	55	60	61	61	61	60	55	55	60	60	69	55	59	54	61	53	55	54	58	57	61	50	54	55	60	54	54	57	115	61	55	55	53	52	55	54	61	55	55	83	55	55	60	61	47	52	48	60	108	40	61	61	61	60	57	60	56	54	53	48	108	54	74	38	118	56	61	108	61	52	109	38	47	55	61	50	53	61	55	54	55	55	49	45	53	49	53	61	39	40	60	54	61	55	54	69	51	69	126	52	55	55	57	25	54	53	53	48	61	55	53	58	55	52	57	55	61	60	61	54	56	57	39	60	103	58	61	62	48	54	55	60	61	68	54	56	61	56	57	112	60	54	61	111	61	59	60	55	61	75	57	54	52	59	52	47	55	61	56	61	61	70	59	52	61	60	54	60	56	61	115	54	55	64	57	61	61	60	61	55	57	62	69	54	75	60	59	55	53	53	60	60	54	55	60	55	50	54	52	61	52	56	54
Last total	2790	4739	8139	7712	8860	9491	11091	3707	22748	29284	16644	4072	17178	7734	7295	7925	12851	21677	94940	6460	16945	8773	5549	23866	4319	24443	6745	43807	10445	6214	27272	6712	13869	29183	5730	23712	5915	8898	6563	9446	16085	13153	5311	13571	6688	9737	8026	8099	14920	11374	12297	3572	8712	19459	20342	5734	4656	4063	7293	10709	2949	4906	13536	2466	35451	22061	2634	7485	29961	8031	6774	9977	3925	18879	2648	20652	11071	7593	25090	29405	2799	3849	4659	7930	5786	4253	16495	8855	8305	6421	5375	2906	7066	29048	12126	5035	6486	4757	4938	4772	7889	2961	4450	12978	7507	6175	3652	9965	5300	21607	7066	11463	3969	12421	4710	20202	7648	7190	19705	4107	8215	6046	6716	26216	6514	7947	4612	24988	5550	5437	23515	7110	7345	6998	6618	14471	8577	5483	7050	17113	11678	30402	16817	23462	8919	56333	33286	4729	21105	6128	6462	46803	18575	12385	3667	2547	49267	7395	25440	2402	3194	15561	2080	3088	6556	11606	18845	4210	5826	6556	22103	7870	34313	1900	5637	7522	6063	5132	7898	2902	9561	11461	3872	5358	16894	16229	7085	28726	7876	4628	21346	8913	9266	13742	8640	13558	12674	10376	31739	8749	5570	8853	4306	10318	2433	19530	6187	5736	4797	18667	5930	5245	6417	7511	1499	1767	21467	31877	5249	4934	22923	4506	6675	39008	14145	14413	13699	5718	4599	5425	6667	14388	1577	4456	6694	4332	5292	4463	5493	7433	4908	8259	10655	13338	14231	21815	7070	7567	16185	8177	4934	5577	19210	14499	18404	4693	3511	20621	5297	15341	12954	10336	16675	4932	5311	2842	10320	9480	5045	2797	10992	6008	17307	7810	3980	950	27926	15462	5479	4705	4767	22325	24097	24162	21163	16810	6697	7580	5636	7722	4484	7830	5995	1129	8385	4116	3823	6037	13459	26894	16050	4693	7931	23457	6489	7755	23506	5699	4971	5990	9977	6334	5033	11742
Last daily increment	1	12	12	23	22	4	19	5	23	29	60	2	14	16	22	14	17	23	198	18	21	13	19	76	14	43	11	132	12	17	32	4	21	61	14	19	11	3	24	7	46	30	10	19	13	10	9	10	28	24	13	7	19	30	26	11	9	6	9	21	7	28	7	5	72	38	3	17	39	6	15	9	11	51	3	51	16	10	49	45	7	2	6	13	9	10	23	23	13	5	12	5	8	30	5	5	24	5	6	16	6	3	8	19	16	6	11	4	9	19	8	12	5	17	9	20	7	8	35	10	14	5	10	20	6	5	6	31	15	5	43	23	17	17	4	13	8	20	16	35	5	103	27	24	25	130	89	5	13	5	12	73	57	8	12	9	110	18	24	6	9	22	4	3	14	21	46	7	17	13	15	13	24	1	13	24	13	14	12	6	18	26	14	16	47	29	9	49	20	14	38	12	9	64	4	24	32	10	34	14	22	8	13	10	14	45	6	4	2	52	20	2	14	8	8	8	45	92	5	12	35	15	2	72	40	48	22	10	3	6	16	25	1	21	11	1	13	4	6	26	15	12	14	36	9	13	18	11	41	12	4	8	68	37	42	6	7	47	4	16	12	26	49	27	9	4	34	18	14	8	20	7	23	7	19	2	19	57	5	5	6	68	68	25	28	25	16	14	6	6	17	6	7	0	18	18	2	15	13	52	48	3	14	27	12	8	47	16	12	21	18	12	10	25
Last week	28	139	121	191	258	80	170	45	218	282	398	89	127	119	196	84	211	171	1758	156	220	153	134	591	104	415	89	1050	104	136	302	69	136	450	84	158	94	65	179	82	384	328	71	134	143	58	93	73	232	326	102	42	141	353	370	137	75	55	152	171	66	222	190	33	632	466	35	115	327	87	152	75	95	406	68	495	268	76	466	380	52	51	62	99	51	120	367	207	108	42	121	27	79	197	68	56	199	63	115	194	57	47	89	203	208	43	107	77	105	173	66	141	58	170	109	159	82	128	252	51	149	52	84	190	169	63	101	355	149	53	364	195	97	97	58	84	87	182	135	335	121	727	208	222	206	1168	786	64	131	118	92	679	418	86	42	91	832	219	177	51	64	180	44	42	116	300	310	49	99	199	262	123	302	17	115	177	79	127	130	52	141	255	136	185	330	315	116	561	172	81	302	141	126	488	91	228	309	110	263	167	172	84	80	118	58	346	62	74	30	427	158	51	163	61	94	40	413	745	54	135	317	92	57	651	360	273	242	87	59	63	159	246	14	153	163	45	70	44	84	167	102	138	177	332	127	156	99	83	346	123	60	96	473	320	339	98	65	433	68	148	98	226	393	174	49	57	295	149	106	46	107	70	178	39	103	6	164	286	43	46	70	571	489	192	204	232	125	79	48	68	166	106	123	3	156	103	40	103	120	487	383	41	102	304	127	72	411	111	84	158	222	108	115	140
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-15	10-11	10-27	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-05	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		163	98	55	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165	29		55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	55				65									43		52				59									360	152		86	540	254					530					611	61								73					391				51								35	58	68			610			256				82		101			95	43		41	42		196		64			43		67				237	232	85		183			435	113						66								24	70		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	61		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106	70	9							53	7		18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18									11		14				21									95	20		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14								13	16	6			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	20		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18		16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-21 to 2021-02-27

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-20	2790	4739	8139	7712	8860	9491	11091	3707	22748	29284	16644	4072	17178	7734	7295	7925	12851	21677	94940	6460	16945	8773	5549	23866	4319	24443	6745	43807	10445	6214	27272	6712	13869	29183	5730	23712	5915	8898	6563	9446	16085	13153	5311	13571	6688	9737	8026	8099	14920	11374	12297	3572	8712	19459	20342	5734	4656	4063	7293	10709	2949	4906	13536	2466	35451	22061	2634	7485	29961	8031	6774	9977	3925	18879	2648	20652	11071	7593	25090	29405	2799	3849	4659	7930	5786	4253	16495	8855	8305	6421	5375	2906	7066	29048	12126	5035	6486	4757	4938	4772	7889	2961	4450	12978	7507	6175	3652	9965	5300	21607	7066	11463	3969	12421	4710	20202	7648	7190	19705	4107	8215	6046	6716	26216	6514	7947	4612	24988	5550	5437	23515	7110	7345	6998	6618	14471	8577	5483	7050	17113	11678	30402	16817	23462	8919	56333	33286	4729	21105	6128	6462	46803	18575	12385	3667	2547	49267	7395	25440	2402	3194	15561	2080	3088	6556	11606	18845	4210	5826	6556	22103	7870	34313	1900	5637	7522	6063	5132	7898	2902	9561	11461	3872	5358	16894	16229	7085	28726	7876	4628	21346	8913	9266	13742	8640	13558	12674	10376	31739	8749	5570	8853	4306	10318	2433	19530	6187	5736	4797	18667	5930	5245	6417	7511	1499	1767	21467	31877	5249	4934	22923	4506	6675	39008	14145	14413	13699	5718	4599	5425	6667	14388	1577	4456	6694	4332	5292	4463	5493	7433	4908	8259	10655	13338	14231	21815	7070	7567	16185	8177	4934	5577	19210	14499	18404	4693	3511	20621	5297	15341	12954	10336	16675	4932	5311	2842	10320	9480	5045	2797	10992	6008	17307	7810	3980	950	27926	15462	5479	4705	4767	22325	24097	24162	21163	16810	6697	7580	5636	7722	4484	7830	5995	8385	4116	3823	6037	13459	26894	16050	4693	7931	23457	6489	7755	23506	5699	4971	5990	9977	6334	5033	11742
2021-02-21	2794	4758	8155	7760	8931	9492	11150	3715	22780	29330	16700	4086	17190	7755	7325	7964	12860	21700	95290	6484	16970	8800	5565	23990	4338	24510	6762	43930	10450	6259	27360	6722	13910	29280	5742	23780	5931	8906	6589	9465	16120	13200	5328	13580	6742	9772	8047	8110	14980	11410	12320	3580	8735	19540	20390	5757	4663	4074	7318	10720	2964	4940	13610	2471	35560	22080	2639	7509	30010	8045	6809	9990	3940	18920	2658	20740	11120	7605	25220	29470	2802	3859	4671	7946	5795	4273	16550	8927	8331	6453	5389	2914	7080	29080	12140	5043	6517	4767	4938	4809	7929	2979	4461	13040	7546	6191	3674	9980	5306	21630	7083	11480	3981	12450	4729	20230	7662	7208	19720	4127	8240	6060	6736	26270	6528	7970	4628	25050	5573	5439	23570	7155	7357	6998	6626	14490	8590	5516	7084	17170	11690	30500	16850	23490	8919	56540	33350	4741	21130	6148	6477	46960	18640	12420	3675	2556	49370	7454	25480	2410	3213	15590	2087	3094	6565	11700	18890	4219	5865	6604	22160	7881	34380	1903	5652	7547	6077	5151	7920	2907	9574	11490	3890	5385	16940	16300	7105	28820	7929	4643	21400	8913	9284	13820	8673	13570	12720	10410	31780	8810	5595	8888	4318	10340	2442	19600	6196	5755	4810	18760	5955	5252	6445	7538	1513	1774	21490	31920	5252	4965	23030	4520	6686	39090	14210	14470	13740	5740	4611	5437	6704	14420	1579	4480	6714	4341	5314	4476	5506	7456	4931	8277	10680	13340	14260	21820	7095	7583	16250	8200	4956	5584	19260	14540	18450	4716	3525	20700	5309	15370	12960	10370	16710	4949	5321	2843	10370	9509	5060	2805	11000	6018	17340	7820	3987	952	27940	15460	5488	4709	4790	22420	24120	24190	21200	16860	6717	7596	5674	7736	4499	7868	6016	8421	4131	3827	6045	13480	26950	16120	4698	7948	23500	6523	7769	23550	5720	4985	6017	10010	6350	5051	11760
2021-02-22	2810	4778	8184	7815	9031	9510	11260	3730	22830	29400	16780	4119	17220	7801	7383	7996	12920	21730	95690	6524	17020	8864	5580	24140	4366	24600	6792	44130	10480	6313	27460	6739	13980	29370	5759	23910	5970	8912	6636	9489	16190	13280	5367	13600	6791	9808	8083	8125	15090	11490	12350	3603	8773	19630	20460	5809	4683	4108	7377	10740	2997	4995	13700	2485	35780	22160	2650	7566	30070	8071	6852	10000	3966	18990	2681	20850	11250	7619	25370	29570	2809	3883	4716	7974	5816	4308	16630	9004	8359	6482	5407	2925	7114	29130	12150	5055	6565	4773	4954	4860	7965	2996	4475	13110	7601	6208	3709	9990	5326	21680	7116	11510	4014	12490	4767	20270	7708	7233	19760	4147	8272	6084	6757	26310	6569	7988	4668	25120	5604	5450	23660	7220	7381	7009	6658	14520	8606	5582	7118	17250	11710	30640	16900	23550	8947	56790	33470	4764	21180	6205	6491	47140	18770	12440	3685	2576	49540	7526	25510	2428	3239	15630	2096	3110	6581	11790	18930	4240	5898	6665	22260	7897	34450	1908	5671	7559	6096	5186	7960	2918	9600	11530	3909	5422	17000	16390	7143	28960	7980	4661	21500	8934	9335	13910	8699	13600	12810	10490	31840	8873	5643	8964	4340	10360	2454	19710	6203	5786	4823	18850	6001	5267	6493	7559	1545	1784	21550	32010	5258	5004	23140	4544	6712	39200	14340	14540	13870	5769	4640	5460	6757	14460	1588	4513	6732	4361	5352	4506	5538	7479	4963	8311	10730	13380	14290	21860	7155	7610	16320	8251	4980	5608	19340	14600	18510	4742	3557	20810	5329	15420	12970	10420	16780	4980	5352	2854	10460	9582	5083	2821	11000	6046	17390	7828	3995	954	27960	15500	5495	4720	4831	22520	24180	24250	21270	16920	6758	7623	5707	7781	4541	7899	6072	8460	4142	3836	6076	13510	27040	16250	4717	7972	23560	6577	7798	23620	5752	5019	6064	10090	6379	5081	11780
2021-02-23	2821	4798	8199	7857	9084	9520	11350	3741	22870	29460	16850	4143	17240	7835	7427	8021	12960	21760	96030	6556	17050	8910	5597	24250	4385	24690	6813	44300	10500	6350	27540	6752	14030	29470	5782	24010	5998	8918	6674	9501	16240	13340	5396	13610	6820	9827	8110	8137	15180	11530	12380	3618	8803	19710	20520	5847	4687	4132	7420	10750	3022	5039	13750	2495	35940	22210	2658	7608	30130	8090	6880	10020	3987	19040	2699	20940	11340	7631	25480	29660	2815	3900	4745	7996	5831	4336	16690	9058	8379	6500	5430	2933	7138	29170	12160	5065	6604	4782	4963	4903	7989	3007	4488	13150	7640	6216	3735	10000	5341	21720	7141	11530	4036	12520	4796	20310	7739	7255	19780	4162	8300	6096	6775	26350	6606	8005	4696	25190	5631	5461	23720	7260	7396	7014	6679	14540	8619	5632	7151	17310	11730	30760	16940	23590	8966	57010	33560	4781	21210	6245	6505	47310	18870	12460	3693	2593	49680	7564	25540	2441	3251	15670	2104	3122	6603	11870	18970	4256	5918	6702	22340	7910	34510	1912	5689	7577	6109	5213	7992	2929	9607	11570	3927	5454	17050	16460	7172	29080	8019	4677	21580	8952	9370	14040	8725	13640	12880	10550	31890	8912	5679	9018	4357	10380	2465	19770	6211	5809	4830	18930	6036	5278	6531	7577	1568	1793	21590	32070	5262	5033	23220	4563	6730	39300	14430	14590	13950	5782	4660	5477	6793	14500	1593	4542	6752	4376	5381	4527	5561	7503	4983	8322	10770	13410	14310	21890	7199	7629	16380	8288	4993	5624	19420	14660	18560	4763	3581	20890	5348	15460	12990	10470	16840	5019	5372	2858	10540	9633	5101	2832	11010	6065	17430	7835	4002	955	27980	15530	5503	4726	4862	22620	24280	24290	21310	16950	6789	7645	5728	7811	4580	7925	6112	8486	4155	3842	6096	13530	27110	16360	4729	7991	23610	6619	7820	23670	5778	5043	6100	10150	6404	5096	11800
2021-02-24	2829	4817	8211	7896	9123	9531	11420	3750	22910	29500	16910	4162	17250	7862	7465	8035	12990	21780	96300	6583	17080	8947	5612	24350	4399	24740	6827	44460	10510	6375	27590	6763	14080	29550	5789	24090	6020	8924	6703	9506	16300	13400	5418	13620	6847	9846	8133	8149	15250	11590	12400	3630	8829	19780	20570	5878	4695	4149	7455	10770	3042	5078	13780	2503	36080	22260	2664	7641	30180	8107	6915	10030	4005	19100	2712	21030	11410	7643	25570	29730	2820	3913	4766	8015	5843	4359	16780	9094	8400	6507	5450	2941	7157	29200	12170	5073	6639	4790	4977	4939	7998	3023	4500	13190	7674	6224	3754	10020	5359	21750	7162	11550	4054	12540	4820	20340	7761	7274	19800	4173	8326	6111	6790	26380	6627	8017	4719	25250	5657	5466	23770	7301	7410	7025	6693	14560	8637	5673	7167	17370	11740	30880	16980	23620	8990	57210	33650	4796	21240	6276	6519	47440	18960	12470	3701	2602	49810	7609	25570	2451	3264	15700	2111	3130	6620	11920	19010	4268	5935	6737	22400	7922	34560	1916	5708	7597	6131	5236	8019	2935	9610	11600	3945	5485	17090	16520	7196	29180	8038	4692	21640	8985	9397	14120	8743	13660	12930	10590	31930	8945	5709	9061	4371	10400	2474	19820	6219	5829	4837	19000	6066	5286	6565	7589	1587	1801	21620	32120	5266	5061	23300	4579	6745	39410	14510	14630	14020	5792	4677	5491	6820	14540	1597	4567	6771	4388	5405	4545	5579	7525	5002	8327	10800	13430	14330	21910	7233	7646	16430	8318	5003	5636	19500	14720	18610	4787	3600	20960	5358	15490	13010	10510	16890	5043	5388	2863	10590	9674	5117	2841	11020	6081	17470	7841	4008	956	28000	15550	5511	4731	4888	22720	24340	24320	21350	16990	6814	7663	5738	7833	4604	7950	6142	8511	4168	3847	6110	13560	27170	16440	4737	8008	23660	6655	7837	23720	5800	5062	6131	10200	6420	5104	11820
2021-02-25	2836	4836	8219	7932	9169	9549	11480	3759	22940	29550	16970	4179	17270	7888	7501	8055	13020	21800	96540	6610	17120	8981	5626	24440	4413	24810	6836	44630	10520	6407	27650	6774	14120	29630	5808	24160	6040	8930	6728	9515	16350	13450	5440	13640	6869	9863	8154	8160	15320	11640	12420	3641	8854	19840	20620	5907	4707	4165	7489	10780	3061	5115	13810	2509	36210	22350	2671	7672	30230	8122	6942	10040	4022	19180	2725	21110	11470	7655	25650	29800	2826	3926	4785	8033	5854	4382	16820	9141	8420	6526	5470	2948	7174	29230	12180	5081	6673	4799	4984	4972	8014	3031	4511	13230	7713	6233	3775	10030	5377	21780	7181	11560	4070	12570	4843	20370	7781	7294	19820	4184	8351	6120	6806	26420	6653	8025	4740	25310	5681	5472	23830	7340	7422	7051	6706	14570	8645	5712	7191	17420	11750	31010	17010	23660	9007	57440	33760	4810	21270	6304	6533	47610	19040	12490	3709	2621	49930	7650	25600	2461	3279	15730	2117	3138	6639	11990	19050	4280	5966	6776	22460	7933	34610	1919	5735	7618	6139	5257	8044	2941	9625	11640	3963	5514	17150	16580	7220	29280	8072	4706	21710	9006	9422	14200	8764	13690	12990	10640	31960	8982	5738	9102	4385	10420	2484	19880	6226	5848	4847	19070	6095	5295	6597	7600	1604	1808	21690	32170	5270	5087	23370	4594	6758	39520	14590	14680	14080	5802	4693	5505	6849	14580	1601	4592	6791	4400	5428	4561	5596	7548	5016	8345	10840	13460	14350	21920	7265	7661	16500	8346	5019	5647	19580	14780	18670	4803	3617	21030	5373	15520	13030	10540	16960	5077	5403	2868	10650	9712	5136	2850	11020	6095	17500	7851	4014	957	28010	15590	5519	4736	4912	22800	24410	24350	21370	17040	6838	7681	5747	7854	4631	7969	6171	8536	4182	3852	6123	13590	27250	16520	4744	8024	23700	6690	7854	23800	5822	5080	6161	10250	6434	5125	11840
2021-02-26	2841	4855	8229	7958	9197	9555	11530	3767	22980	29600	17030	4195	17280	7910	7533	8070	13040	21820	96780	6635	17130	9010	5641	24520	4429	24860	6848	44780	10520	6425	27700	6784	14150	29690	5818	24230	6057	8936	6742	9522	16400	13490	5458	13650	6896	9880	8174	8171	15380	11680	12450	3650	8878	19890	20670	5932	4710	4178	7517	10800	3078	5150	13830	2515	36320	22380	2676	7699	30280	8136	6960	10050	4038	19230	2737	21170	11520	7666	25710	29870	2831	3936	4800	8050	5863	4403	16880	9165	8438	6533	5482	2955	7189	29260	12190	5089	6704	4809	4990	5000	8024	3040	4523	13250	7742	6237	3793	10040	5389	21800	7199	11580	4083	12590	4863	20400	7797	7312	19840	4189	8374	6125	6821	26450	6675	8030	4758	25360	5705	5472	23870	7359	7435	7066	6716	14590	8653	5746	7214	17460	11760	31110	17050	23690	9021	57590	33840	4822	21290	6327	6547	47690	19110	12500	3716	2631	50040	7688	25630	2469	3285	15760	2124	3145	6660	12030	19090	4290	5978	6803	22520	7943	34660	1922	5749	7641	6150	5277	8068	2951	9627	11660	3981	5543	17180	16610	7241	29380	8103	4720	21760	9016	9443	14240	8779	13720	13040	10670	32000	9006	5764	9136	4397	10440	2492	19920	6234	5866	4852	19150	6120	5302	6627	7609	1620	1815	21720	32210	5273	5105	23420	4608	6770	39620	14650	14710	14130	5807	4706	5517	6869	14610	1603	4615	6811	4410	5448	4575	5610	7571	5034	8346	10870	13480	14370	21930	7292	7676	16540	8371	5025	5656	19640	14810	18710	4817	3632	21070	5383	15540	13040	10580	17000	5090	5414	2870	10700	9744	5156	2858	11030	6108	17530	7853	4020	958	28030	15620	5526	4739	4933	22900	24460	24380	21380	17070	6859	7697	5752	7870	4648	7984	6195	8557	4196	3856	6133	13600	27320	16600	4749	8040	23730	6721	7868	23840	5843	5095	6187	10280	6448	5134	11860
2021-02-27	2845	4873	8243	7981	9220	9560	11580	3774	23010	29640	17090	4209	17300	7931	7564	8083	13060	21840	97030	6659	17160	9038	5656	24580	4444	24900	6863	44890	10530	6441	27730	6794	14190	29750	5831	24290	6073	8942	6763	9533	16440	13520	5475	13660	6912	9887	8192	8182	15440	11700	12470	3659	8900	19930	20720	5956	4717	4190	7545	10810	3093	5184	13850	2520	36430	22420	2681	7724	30320	8150	6974	10060	4053	19290	2747	21230	11570	7677	25770	29930	2835	3946	4813	8066	5872	4423	16910	9188	8452	6539	5500	2961	7202	29280	12190	5096	6734	4818	4999	5017	8030	3044	4533	13280	7759	6247	3803	10050	5402	21830	7215	11600	4095	12620	4883	20420	7811	7330	19860	4200	8398	6131	6835	26490	6684	8039	4775	25420	5728	5476	23910	7385	7452	7083	6724	14600	8664	5779	7235	17500	11770	31200	17080	23720	9043	57730	33920	4834	21310	6349	6562	47760	19190	12520	3724	2639	50140	7704	25650	2477	3292	15780	2130	3151	6674	12060	19130	4300	5996	6816	22580	7954	34700	1925	5760	7665	6159	5296	8090	2959	9646	11690	3998	5571	17230	16630	7261	29470	8125	4735	21810	9028	9462	14310	8790	13750	13090	10710	32040	9025	5789	9169	4409	10460	2501	19960	6242	5882	4854	19200	6145	5308	6656	7620	1634	1822	21760	32250	5276	5119	23460	4622	6781	39690	14710	14750	14180	5823	4719	5529	6886	14630	1605	4638	6831	4419	5468	4588	5623	7594	5046	8360	10890	13510	14390	21950	7318	7689	16580	8394	5031	5664	19690	14840	18760	4825	3646	21130	5386	15570	13050	10610	17050	5114	5425	2875	10750	9773	5169	2866	11030	6119	17560	7860	4026	960	28050	15670	5533	4743	4953	22970	24530	24410	21410	17100	6879	7713	5763	7885	4664	7996	6217	8579	4210	3859	6141	13610	27380	16670	4753	8055	23760	6752	7882	23890	5862	5110	6213	10320	6460	5148	11880

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-21 to 2021-02-27

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-20	2790	4739	8139	7712	8860	9491	11091	3707	22748	29284	16644	4072	17178	7734	7295	7925	12851	21677	94940	6460	16945	8773	5549	23866	4319	24443	6745	43807	10445	6214	27272	6712	13869	29183	5730	23712	5915	8898	6563	9446	16085	13153	5311	13571	6688	9737	8026	8099	14920	11374	12297	3572	8712	19459	20342	5734	4656	4063	7293	10709	2949	4906	13536	2466	35451	22061	2634	7485	29961	8031	6774	9977	3925	18879	2648	20652	11071	7593	25090	29405	2799	3849	4659	7930	5786	4253	16495	8855	8305	6421	5375	2906	7066	29048	12126	5035	6486	4757	4938	4772	7889	2961	4450	12978	7507	6175	3652	9965	5300	21607	7066	11463	3969	12421	4710	20202	7648	7190	19705	4107	8215	6046	6716	26216	6514	7947	4612	24988	5550	5437	23515	7110	7345	6998	6618	14471	8577	5483	7050	17113	11678	30402	16817	23462	8919	56333	33286	4729	21105	6128	6462	46803	18575	12385	3667	2547	49267	7395	25440	2402	3194	15561	2080	3088	6556	11606	18845	4210	5826	6556	22103	7870	34313	1900	5637	7522	6063	5132	7898	2902	9561	11461	3872	5358	16894	16229	7085	28726	7876	4628	21346	8913	9266	13742	8640	13558	12674	10376	31739	8749	5570	8853	4306	10318	2433	19530	6187	5736	4797	18667	5930	5245	6417	7511	1499	1767	21467	31877	5249	4934	22923	4506	6675	39008	14145	14413	13699	5718	4599	5425	6667	14388	1577	4456	6694	4332	5292	4463	5493	7433	4908	8259	10655	13338	14231	21815	7070	7567	16185	8177	4934	5577	19210	14499	18404	4693	3511	20621	5297	15341	12954	10336	16675	4932	5311	2842	10320	9480	5045	2797	10992	6008	17307	7810	3980	950	27926	15462	5479	4705	4767	22325	24097	24162	21163	16810	6697	7580	5636	7722	4484	7830	5995	8385	4116	3823	6037	13459	26894	16050	4693	7931	23457	6489	7755	23506	5699	4971	5990	9977	6334	5033	11742
2021-02-21	2794	4752	8154	7729	8888	9495	11120	3713	22770	29310	16700	4082	17190	7752	7323	7938	12890	21700	95110	6483	16960	8792	5563	23950	4334	24480	6755	43950	10460	6231	27300	6720	13880	29230	5732	23730	5927	8906	6583	9457	16140	13190	5322	13590	6710	9746	8036	8109	14950	11410	12310	3581	8729	19500	20380	5756	4666	4074	7310	10730	2963	4936	13560	2473	35540	22090	2638	7499	30000	8042	6794	9990	3939	18930	2656	20720	11110	7602	25140	29440	2806	3855	4670	7942	5794	4271	16540	8886	8317	6426	5383	2910	7079	29070	12130	5039	6513	4766	4946	4792	7901	2968	4459	13010	7534	6180	3663	9970	5306	21630	7075	11480	3980	12440	4725	20220	7660	7203	19730	4115	8231	6050	6730	26240	6530	7954	4627	25030	5569	5441	23550	7130	7355	7002	6628	14480	8586	5513	7065	17150	11700	30500	16850	23490	8934	56470	33370	4733	21120	6146	6475	46880	18640	12400	3674	2558	49370	7425	25460	2410	3204	15590	2085	3093	6567	11650	18880	4219	5841	6575	22140	7886	34340	1902	5648	7547	6074	5150	7918	2906	9581	11500	3888	5381	16940	16270	7100	28790	7904	4639	21390	8922	9283	13800	8650	13580	12710	10390	31770	8774	5593	8863	4320	10330	2444	19570	6193	5747	4800	18720	5955	5251	6440	7521	1509	1773	21510	31960	5255	4949	22970	4521	6682	39090	14200	14450	13720	5726	4607	5432	6689	14420	1579	4478	6710	4339	5301	4469	5502	7454	4921	8269	10680	13370	14240	21840	7088	7581	16230	8195	4942	5595	19280	14530	18450	4705	3518	20670	5302	15360	12960	10370	16720	4950	5320	2849	10360	9503	5058	2803	11010	6018	17330	7816	3997	952	27950	15480	5483	4712	4774	22410	24140	24180	21190	16840	6716	7588	5646	7731	4503	7841	6010	8406	4132	3827	6045	13470	26960	16100	4702	7945	23490	6505	7762	23530	5710	4978	6010	10010	6343	5045	11760
2021-02-22	2801	4769	8179	7760	8968	9507	11160	3720	22810	29350	16760	4098	17200	7775	7357	7955	12930	21710	95450	6508	17000	8824	5586	24070	4355	24550	6769	44120	10480	6259	27350	6731	13910	29310	5743	23770	5949	8916	6613	9475	16210	13260	5337	13600	6739	9756	8057	8120	15000	11470	12320	3591	8742	19570	20440	5785	4685	4089	7350	10740	2985	4969	13600	2480	35680	22170	2643	7520	30040	8055	6825	10000	3955	18980	2668	20810	11160	7608	25220	29520	2813	3870	4691	7959	5806	4293	16590	8936	8334	6437	5401	2914	7096	29100	12140	5051	6547	4777	4965	4833	7913	2980	4472	13050	7571	6187	3679	9980	5317	21650	7087	11500	3996	12460	4749	20240	7679	7223	19770	4125	8249	6060	6743	26270	6558	7964	4648	25070	5594	5450	23600	7168	7371	7009	6645	14500	8598	5549	7088	17220	11720	30620	16880	23530	8966	56670	33500	4743	21150	6171	6487	46990	18700	12410	3679	2574	49510	7470	25490	2419	3215	15620	2092	3098	6576	11710	18910	4229	5861	6627	22190	7903	34400	1906	5665	7569	6083	5171	7943	2912	9608	11540	3903	5416	16990	16320	7119	28900	7940	4648	21450	8938	9311	13860	8663	13610	12770	10410	31800	8813	5616	8880	4332	10350	2453	19660	6200	5759	4806	18810	5982	5264	6474	7530	1529	1780	21580	32090	5263	4972	23030	4536	6691	39180	14270	14490	13780	5744	4620	5442	6723	14460	1582	4499	6731	4351	5311	4477	5518	7477	4934	8305	10710	13420	14270	21870	7114	7597	16290	8223	4959	5613	19340	14580	18490	4721	3536	20750	5313	15380	12970	10400	16780	4970	5330	2860	10420	9535	5067	2812	11020	6032	17360	7820	4012	953	27960	15520	5486	4723	4787	22500	24210	24210	21230	16880	6738	7598	5660	7748	4525	7858	6042	8435	4145	3832	6062	13490	27030	16180	4717	7958	23540	6524	7777	23600	5730	4991	6033	10040	6360	5065	11780
2021-02-23	2806	4787	8199	7787	9010	9518	11200	3726	22840	29380	16830	4111	17210	7795	7388	7972	12970	21730	95760	6533	17030	8855	5605	24170	4371	24610	6780	44270	10500	6282	27380	6740	13930	29390	5756	23800	5966	8925	6642	9484	16260	13320	5349	13620	6761	9761	8076	8133	15030	11510	12330	3600	8754	19640	20490	5811	4696	4101	7379	10740	3004	5001	13620	2487	35800	22230	2648	7546	30070	8066	6850	10000	3968	19030	2678	20890	11200	7616	25280	29580	2821	3880	4707	7973	5815	4313	16640	8975	8352	6444	5421	2917	7110	29110	12150	5061	6585	4787	4979	4869	7923	2987	4486	13080	7602	6192	3692	9990	5325	21670	7097	11510	4010	12470	4771	20260	7693	7243	19800	4134	8267	6068	6754	26290	6587	7975	4666	25120	5617	5460	23650	7198	7384	7015	6659	14510	8610	5582	7111	17270	11740	30730	16910	23570	8990	56850	33630	4749	21170	6192	6499	47120	18770	12420	3683	2588	49640	7503	25510	2428	3223	15650	2098	3102	6589	11770	18950	4238	5878	6660	22230	7919	34440	1909	5681	7591	6091	5190	7966	2921	9629	11590	3920	5446	17040	16380	7137	29000	7971	4658	21510	8954	9331	13980	8678	13640	12810	10430	31830	8845	5639	8895	4344	10360	2461	19710	6208	5770	4809	18880	6007	5275	6506	7540	1542	1787	21640	32200	5272	4992	23070	4549	6698	39260	14340	14520	13820	5755	4631	5453	6752	14490	1584	4520	6756	4361	5322	4484	5533	7500	4944	8326	10740	13460	14290	21890	7135	7611	16340	8248	4970	5630	19410	14630	18530	4737	3549	20820	5325	15400	12990	10430	16840	4998	5338	2868	10470	9562	5076	2819	11020	6045	17380	7824	4026	953	27980	15550	5491	4733	4799	22580	24290	24240	21270	16910	6759	7607	5670	7762	4547	7875	6064	8455	4159	3838	6076	13500	27090	16250	4729	7969	23600	6543	7788	23650	5750	4999	6055	10080	6375	5079	11800
2021-02-24	2810	4801	8214	7820	9043	9528	11230	3733	22880	29440	16890	4123	17220	7811	7417	7982	13010	21750	96020	6556	17070	8880	5626	24260	4386	24670	6791	44420	10520	6302	27410	6751	13940	29460	5763	23820	5982	8934	6667	9492	16320	13370	5360	13630	6784	9768	8092	8143	15070	11560	12340	3608	8764	19690	20540	5836	4709	4112	7403	10750	3022	5032	13650	2492	35910	22290	2653	7567	30110	8077	6878	10010	3985	19080	2688	20970	11240	7623	25350	29650	2828	3890	4720	7987	5823	4333	16700	9008	8368	6448	5441	2920	7123	29140	12150	5070	6612	4797	4997	4902	7927	2999	4499	13120	7631	6197	3703	10000	5337	21690	7107	11530	4022	12500	4791	20280	7705	7264	19820	4144	8284	6077	6766	26320	6607	7983	4683	25170	5640	5468	23690	7230	7395	7023	6672	14520	8624	5614	7127	17320	11760	30840	16940	23610	9017	57030	33740	4756	21190	6212	6513	47210	18830	12440	3687	2598	49770	7540	25530	2435	3232	15670	2105	3107	6603	11830	18990	4247	5893	6692	22280	7934	34490	1912	5697	7614	6100	5208	7987	2928	9646	11630	3936	5475	17080	16430	7155	29090	7989	4668	21560	8980	9347	14040	8691	13670	12860	10440	31860	8875	5661	8908	4355	10380	2469	19760	6214	5781	4815	18950	6031	5285	6537	7549	1558	1794	21700	32300	5280	5012	23120	4562	6704	39340	14400	14550	13860	5765	4641	5462	6776	14530	1586	4541	6778	4370	5332	4491	5550	7516	4955	8343	10770	13500	14310	21910	7155	7625	16390	8271	4979	5646	19470	14680	18570	4757	3560	20880	5333	15420	13000	10470	16890	5018	5346	2877	10520	9588	5086	2825	11030	6057	17410	7828	4043	955	28000	15580	5496	4741	4808	22670	24340	24270	21300	16940	6776	7613	5679	7779	4567	7892	6090	8477	4173	3842	6093	13520	27140	16320	4737	7981	23640	6562	7800	23700	5768	5009	6074	10110	6388	5091	11820
2021-02-25	2813	4817	8229	7850	9085	9542	11250	3739	22910	29460	16950	4134	17230	7827	7447	8002	13040	21770	96260	6580	17110	8910	5643	24360	4402	24710	6800	44580	10540	6329	27450	6761	13970	29520	5777	23850	5996	8943	6692	9504	16370	13430	5371	13640	6808	9776	8103	8153	15110	11600	12360	3617	8775	19740	20580	5860	4726	4123	7432	10770	3038	5066	13690	2497	36020	22380	2658	7589	30140	8086	6905	10020	3998	19140	2697	21050	11280	7631	25420	29700	2835	3900	4733	8000	5830	4354	16740	9051	8383	6463	5461	2924	7136	29160	12160	5079	6641	4808	5015	4936	7941	3005	4511	13150	7664	6203	3717	10010	5348	21710	7116	11550	4033	12520	4810	20300	7719	7284	19850	4152	8301	6086	6777	26340	6627	7991	4699	25210	5664	5477	23740	7264	7404	7041	6684	14530	8634	5644	7150	17370	11780	30960	16980	23640	9035	57250	33860	4768	21200	6231	6527	47340	18890	12460	3691	2613	49890	7579	25560	2443	3245	15700	2112	3112	6617	11890	19020	4256	5918	6730	22320	7949	34530	1915	5719	7639	6108	5226	8008	2933	9672	11670	3954	5502	17130	16480	7173	29180	8018	4678	21610	8993	9363	14100	8705	13700	12910	10460	31890	8910	5683	8924	4366	10390	2477	19820	6225	5792	4822	19030	6054	5294	6566	7557	1572	1801	21780	32390	5288	5033	23170	4574	6712	39440	14460	14590	13920	5778	4651	5474	6801	14570	1588	4561	6799	4379	5342	4498	5560	7537	4963	8372	10800	13550	14330	21930	7175	7638	16450	8294	4992	5661	19540	14730	18610	4770	3581	20950	5340	15430	13020	10500	16950	5045	5353	2885	10570	9616	5097	2833	11040	6069	17430	7833	4056	956	28010	15620	5503	4749	4815	22750	24410	24290	21320	16990	6794	7627	5689	7790	4588	7909	6115	8497	4188	3846	6114	13550	27200	16390	4745	7991	23680	6585	7808	23770	5785	5020	6098	10140	6401	5113	11840
2021-02-26	2817	4834	8244	7874	9126	9553	11280	3746	22940	29490	17000	4145	17250	7844	7476	8018	13070	21790	96550	6603	17140	8940	5662	24450	4418	24780	6812	44730	10560	6354	27490	6771	14000	29610	5789	23880	6009	8952	6714	9513	16420	13480	5382	13650	6838	9785	8115	8166	15140	11640	12370	3625	8786	19790	20650	5883	4742	4133	7457	10780	3055	5097	13720	2503	36120	22440	2663	7613	30180	8096	6928	10030	4010	19200	2707	21110	11320	7639	25480	29770	2842	3910	4743	8011	5837	4374	16790	9089	8400	6474	5477	2927	7148	29170	12170	5086	6669	4818	5029	4965	7948	3013	4523	13180	7693	6210	3728	10020	5359	21720	7124	11570	4044	12540	4829	20320	7734	7301	19870	4159	8321	6094	6788	26360	6647	7999	4715	25250	5686	5483	23790	7292	7419	7060	6696	14540	8646	5675	7174	17420	11800	31060	17020	23670	9053	57420	33980	4776	21220	6250	6540	47430	18950	12470	3695	2622	50010	7619	25580	2450	3256	15730	2118	3116	6631	11940	19060	4264	5939	6765	22360	7964	34560	1918	5734	7664	6116	5244	8029	2940	9687	11710	3971	5526	17170	16520	7190	29270	8053	4689	21670	9012	9380	14150	8720	13740	12960	10470	31920	8943	5705	8938	4377	10410	2484	19860	6235	5803	4827	19110	6077	5302	6595	7565	1583	1808	21850	32470	5294	5051	23210	4587	6719	39530	14530	14630	13980	5789	4661	5480	6828	14600	1589	4582	6815	4389	5352	4506	5574	7558	4977	8398	10820	13600	14350	21960	7193	7652	16510	8320	5003	5676	19600	14770	18650	4786	3596	21020	5346	15450	13040	10520	17010	5062	5361	2892	10620	9644	5109	2840	11050	6081	17450	7837	4070	957	28030	15650	5513	4756	4829	22840	24470	24310	21340	17020	6811	7634	5695	7800	4608	7928	6134	8516	4202	3850	6132	13560	27240	16460	4755	8002	23710	6602	7817	23820	5798	5031	6118	10170	6415	5128	11850
2021-02-27	2820	4847	8254	7898	9154	9561	11310	3752	22970	29520	17060	4154	17260	7859	7505	8029	13100	21800	96800	6626	17170	8963	5673	24520	4434	24830	6825	44850	10570	6371	27520	6780	14010	29660	5802	23900	6018	8961	6736	9525	16460	13520	5392	13670	6863	9790	8125	8176	15180	11670	12380	3631	8796	19830	20690	5907	4751	4143	7473	10790	3071	5126	13750	2508	36210	22510	2667	7636	30220	8106	6950	10040	4024	19250	2715	21160	11360	7647	25540	29810	2850	3918	4751	8022	5844	4387	16830	9116	8414	6481	5491	2930	7160	29200	12180	5093	6694	4828	5046	4983	7956	3020	4535	13210	7714	6216	3736	10030	5371	21740	7132	11580	4055	12560	4848	20340	7745	7316	19900	4169	8339	6100	6800	26390	6660	8009	4731	25290	5709	5486	23830	7323	7429	7070	6707	14550	8658	5705	7188	17460	11820	31140	17050	23700	9067	57570	34070	4784	21240	6268	6553	47500	19010	12480	3700	2630	50110	7647	25590	2458	3262	15760	2124	3121	6644	11990	19100	4272	5959	6790	22400	7979	34600	1921	5745	7686	6125	5261	8050	2946	9708	11750	3988	5551	17220	16560	7208	29360	8081	4699	21720	9024	9393	14200	8734	13760	13000	10480	31950	8970	5728	8946	4388	10420	2492	19900	6243	5813	4831	19160	6100	5311	6625	7572	1592	1816	21910	32550	5299	5067	23260	4600	6727	39600	14590	14670	14030	5803	4670	5488	6849	14630	1591	4603	6826	4397	5361	4512	5585	7575	4985	8420	10850	13640	14370	21970	7210	7664	16550	8340	5012	5691	19660	14810	18680	4796	3607	21080	5351	15470	13050	10550	17060	5080	5368	2899	10660	9667	5119	2848	11060	6093	17470	7841	4080	959	28050	15680	5518	4762	4836	22890	24520	24340	21360	17060	6827	7642	5709	7813	4627	7943	6148	8535	4217	3853	6140	13570	27270	16530	4763	8013	23730	6616	7826	23860	5812	5042	6134	10200	6428	5147	11870

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-20 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-20