COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-20 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-20

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-20

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-2612-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-122021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-1212-2112-2112-3112-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-01-1210-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-222021-01-0612-2112-2312-2712-1812-282021-01-1312-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-2312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-042021-01-1112-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-082021-01-1310-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-032021-01-132021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-272021-01-022021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-122021-01-1112-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-1212-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2312-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 77 477 588 191 59 326 133 109 108 232 422 1251 74 158 66 60 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 189 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 285 62 90 71 66 244 53 95 283 35 367 289 38 183 598 151 69 188 72 246 27 249 187 118 323 538 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 589 271 95 74 53 89 73 125 53 39 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 201 57 398 175 103 339 101 109 135 121 482 100 156 47 444 57 115 450 138 84 133 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 190 312 429 107 379 287 104 444 71 113 731 272 200 90 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 720 23 51 159 105 50 108 59 124 122 42 55 275 158 124 225 90 44 125 126 109 155 119 201 104 174 621 85 82 171 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 34 26 163 450 42 82 404 65 130 243 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 96 78 108 80 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 151 222 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 201 106 320 189 181 125 55 107 46 140 328 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 557 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 228 77 139 117 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 140 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 55 56 55 61 55 74 61 59 56 59 130 55 59 54 40 52 55 60 53 55 55 48 39 50 97 54 61 114 60 55 55 69 55 54 57 61 56 60 52 52 55 109 61 56 57 74 55 61 61 47 60 53 56 60 61 39 61 61 51 56 55 54 53 60 60 52 54 55 55 61 57 61 61 49 39 129 55 75 56 55 58 53 58 61 110 56 112 55 53 54 61 57 60 57 68 60 45 61 59 55 64 54 38 55 56 61 55 60 61 55 61 55 60 61 61 61 60 55 55 60 60 69 55 59 54 61 53 55 54 58 57 61 50 54 55 60 54 54 57 115 61 55 55 53 52 55 54 61 55 55 83 55 55 60 61 47 52 48 60 108 40 61 61 61 60 57 60 56 54 53 48 108 54 74 38 118 56 61 108 61 52 109 38 47 55 61 50 53 61 55 54 55 55 49 45 53 49 53 61 39 40 60 54 61 55 54 69 51 69 126 52 55 55 57 25 54 53 53 48 61 55 53 58 55 52 57 55 61 60 61 54 56 57 39 60 103 58 61 62 48 54 55 60 61 68 54 56 61 56 57 112 60 54 61 111 61 59 60 55 61 75 57 54 52 59 52 47 55 61 56 61 61 70 59 52 61 60 54 60 56 61 115 54 55 64 57 61 61 60 61 55 57 62 69 54 75 60 59 55 53 53 60 60 54 55 60 55 50 54 52 61 52 56 54
Last total 2790 4739 8139 7712 8860 9491 11091 3707 22748 29284 16644 4072 17178 7734 7295 7925 12851 21677 94940 6460 16945 8773 5549 23866 4319 24443 6745 43807 10445 6214 27272 6712 13869 29183 5730 23712 5915 8898 6563 9446 16085 13153 5311 13571 6688 9737 8026 8099 14920 11374 12297 3572 8712 19459 20342 5734 4656 4063 7293 10709 2949 4906 13536 2466 35451 22061 2634 7485 29961 8031 6774 9977 3925 18879 2648 20652 11071 7593 25090 29405 2799 3849 4659 7930 5786 4253 16495 8855 8305 6421 5375 2906 7066 29048 12126 5035 6486 4757 4938 4772 7889 2961 4450 12978 7507 6175 3652 9965 5300 21607 7066 11463 3969 12421 4710 20202 7648 7190 19705 4107 8215 6046 6716 26216 6514 7947 4612 24988 5550 5437 23515 7110 7345 6998 6618 14471 8577 5483 7050 17113 11678 30402 16817 23462 8919 56333 33286 4729 21105 6128 6462 46803 18575 12385 3667 2547 49267 7395 25440 2402 3194 15561 2080 3088 6556 11606 18845 4210 5826 6556 22103 7870 34313 1900 5637 7522 6063 5132 7898 2902 9561 11461 3872 5358 16894 16229 7085 28726 7876 4628 21346 8913 9266 13742 8640 13558 12674 10376 31739 8749 5570 8853 4306 10318 2433 19530 6187 5736 4797 18667 5930 5245 6417 7511 1499 1767 21467 31877 5249 4934 22923 4506 6675 39008 14145 14413 13699 5718 4599 5425 6667 14388 1577 4456 6694 4332 5292 4463 5493 7433 4908 8259 10655 13338 14231 21815 7070 7567 16185 8177 4934 5577 19210 14499 18404 4693 3511 20621 5297 15341 12954 10336 16675 4932 5311 2842 10320 9480 5045 2797 10992 6008 17307 7810 3980 950 27926 15462 5479 4705 4767 22325 24097 24162 21163 16810 6697 7580 5636 7722 4484 7830 5995 1129 8385 4116 3823 6037 13459 26894 16050 4693 7931 23457 6489 7755 23506 5699 4971 5990 9977 6334 5033 11742
Last daily increment 1 12 12 23 22 4 19 5 23 29 60 2 14 16 22 14 17 23 198 18 21 13 19 76 14 43 11 132 12 17 32 4 21 61 14 19 11 3 24 7 46 30 10 19 13 10 9 10 28 24 13 7 19 30 26 11 9 6 9 21 7 28 7 5 72 38 3 17 39 6 15 9 11 51 3 51 16 10 49 45 7 2 6 13 9 10 23 23 13 5 12 5 8 30 5 5 24 5 6 16 6 3 8 19 16 6 11 4 9 19 8 12 5 17 9 20 7 8 35 10 14 5 10 20 6 5 6 31 15 5 43 23 17 17 4 13 8 20 16 35 5 103 27 24 25 130 89 5 13 5 12 73 57 8 12 9 110 18 24 6 9 22 4 3 14 21 46 7 17 13 15 13 24 1 13 24 13 14 12 6 18 26 14 16 47 29 9 49 20 14 38 12 9 64 4 24 32 10 34 14 22 8 13 10 14 45 6 4 2 52 20 2 14 8 8 8 45 92 5 12 35 15 2 72 40 48 22 10 3 6 16 25 1 21 11 1 13 4 6 26 15 12 14 36 9 13 18 11 41 12 4 8 68 37 42 6 7 47 4 16 12 26 49 27 9 4 34 18 14 8 20 7 23 7 19 2 19 57 5 5 6 68 68 25 28 25 16 14 6 6 17 6 7 0 18 18 2 15 13 52 48 3 14 27 12 8 47 16 12 21 18 12 10 25
Last week 28 139 121 191 258 80 170 45 218 282 398 89 127 119 196 84 211 171 1758 156 220 153 134 591 104 415 89 1050 104 136 302 69 136 450 84 158 94 65 179 82 384 328 71 134 143 58 93 73 232 326 102 42 141 353 370 137 75 55 152 171 66 222 190 33 632 466 35 115 327 87 152 75 95 406 68 495 268 76 466 380 52 51 62 99 51 120 367 207 108 42 121 27 79 197 68 56 199 63 115 194 57 47 89 203 208 43 107 77 105 173 66 141 58 170 109 159 82 128 252 51 149 52 84 190 169 63 101 355 149 53 364 195 97 97 58 84 87 182 135 335 121 727 208 222 206 1168 786 64 131 118 92 679 418 86 42 91 832 219 177 51 64 180 44 42 116 300 310 49 99 199 262 123 302 17 115 177 79 127 130 52 141 255 136 185 330 315 116 561 172 81 302 141 126 488 91 228 309 110 263 167 172 84 80 118 58 346 62 74 30 427 158 51 163 61 94 40 413 745 54 135 317 92 57 651 360 273 242 87 59 63 159 246 14 153 163 45 70 44 84 167 102 138 177 332 127 156 99 83 346 123 60 96 473 320 339 98 65 433 68 148 98 226 393 174 49 57 295 149 106 46 107 70 178 39 103 6 164 286 43 46 70 571 489 192 204 232 125 79 48 68 166 106 123 3 156 103 40 103 120 487 383 41 102 304 127 72 411 111 84 158 222 108 115 140
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1510-1110-2710-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0511-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 163 98 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 55 65 43 52 59 360 152 86 540 254 530 611 61 73 391 51 35 58 68 610 256 82 101 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 66 24 70 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 70 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 95 20 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 13 16 6 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-21 to 2021-02-27

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-20 2790 4739 8139 7712 8860 9491 11091 3707 22748 29284 16644 4072 17178 7734 7295 7925 12851 21677 94940 6460 16945 8773 5549 23866 4319 24443 6745 43807 10445 6214 27272 6712 13869 29183 5730 23712 5915 8898 6563 9446 16085 13153 5311 13571 6688 9737 8026 8099 14920 11374 12297 3572 8712 19459 20342 5734 4656 4063 7293 10709 2949 4906 13536 2466 35451 22061 2634 7485 29961 8031 6774 9977 3925 18879 2648 20652 11071 7593 25090 29405 2799 3849 4659 7930 5786 4253 16495 8855 8305 6421 5375 2906 7066 29048 12126 5035 6486 4757 4938 4772 7889 2961 4450 12978 7507 6175 3652 9965 5300 21607 7066 11463 3969 12421 4710 20202 7648 7190 19705 4107 8215 6046 6716 26216 6514 7947 4612 24988 5550 5437 23515 7110 7345 6998 6618 14471 8577 5483 7050 17113 11678 30402 16817 23462 8919 56333 33286 4729 21105 6128 6462 46803 18575 12385 3667 2547 49267 7395 25440 2402 3194 15561 2080 3088 6556 11606 18845 4210 5826 6556 22103 7870 34313 1900 5637 7522 6063 5132 7898 2902 9561 11461 3872 5358 16894 16229 7085 28726 7876 4628 21346 8913 9266 13742 8640 13558 12674 10376 31739 8749 5570 8853 4306 10318 2433 19530 6187 5736 4797 18667 5930 5245 6417 7511 1499 1767 21467 31877 5249 4934 22923 4506 6675 39008 14145 14413 13699 5718 4599 5425 6667 14388 1577 4456 6694 4332 5292 4463 5493 7433 4908 8259 10655 13338 14231 21815 7070 7567 16185 8177 4934 5577 19210 14499 18404 4693 3511 20621 5297 15341 12954 10336 16675 4932 5311 2842 10320 9480 5045 2797 10992 6008 17307 7810 3980 950 27926 15462 5479 4705 4767 22325 24097 24162 21163 16810 6697 7580 5636 7722 4484 7830 5995 8385 4116 3823 6037 13459 26894 16050 4693 7931 23457 6489 7755 23506 5699 4971 5990 9977 6334 5033 11742
2021-02-21 2794 4758 8155 7760 8931 9492 11150 3715 22780 29330 16700 4086 17190 7755 7325 7964 12860 21700 95290 6484 16970 8800 5565 23990 4338 24510 6762 43930 10450 6259 27360 6722 13910 29280 5742 23780 5931 8906 6589 9465 16120 13200 5328 13580 6742 9772 8047 8110 14980 11410 12320 3580 8735 19540 20390 5757 4663 4074 7318 10720 2964 4940 13610 2471 35560 22080 2639 7509 30010 8045 6809 9990 3940 18920 2658 20740 11120 7605 25220 29470 2802 3859 4671 7946 5795 4273 16550 8927 8331 6453 5389 2914 7080 29080 12140 5043 6517 4767 4938 4809 7929 2979 4461 13040 7546 6191 3674 9980 5306 21630 7083 11480 3981 12450 4729 20230 7662 7208 19720 4127 8240 6060 6736 26270 6528 7970 4628 25050 5573 5439 23570 7155 7357 6998 6626 14490 8590 5516 7084 17170 11690 30500 16850 23490 8919 56540 33350 4741 21130 6148 6477 46960 18640 12420 3675 2556 49370 7454 25480 2410 3213 15590 2087 3094 6565 11700 18890 4219 5865 6604 22160 7881 34380 1903 5652 7547 6077 5151 7920 2907 9574 11490 3890 5385 16940 16300 7105 28820 7929 4643 21400 8913 9284 13820 8673 13570 12720 10410 31780 8810 5595 8888 4318 10340 2442 19600 6196 5755 4810 18760 5955 5252 6445 7538 1513 1774 21490 31920 5252 4965 23030 4520 6686 39090 14210 14470 13740 5740 4611 5437 6704 14420 1579 4480 6714 4341 5314 4476 5506 7456 4931 8277 10680 13340 14260 21820 7095 7583 16250 8200 4956 5584 19260 14540 18450 4716 3525 20700 5309 15370 12960 10370 16710 4949 5321 2843 10370 9509 5060 2805 11000 6018 17340 7820 3987 952 27940 15460 5488 4709 4790 22420 24120 24190 21200 16860 6717 7596 5674 7736 4499 7868 6016 8421 4131 3827 6045 13480 26950 16120 4698 7948 23500 6523 7769 23550 5720 4985 6017 10010 6350 5051 11760
2021-02-22 2810 4778 8184 7815 9031 9510 11260 3730 22830 29400 16780 4119 17220 7801 7383 7996 12920 21730 95690 6524 17020 8864 5580 24140 4366 24600 6792 44130 10480 6313 27460 6739 13980 29370 5759 23910 5970 8912 6636 9489 16190 13280 5367 13600 6791 9808 8083 8125 15090 11490 12350 3603 8773 19630 20460 5809 4683 4108 7377 10740 2997 4995 13700 2485 35780 22160 2650 7566 30070 8071 6852 10000 3966 18990 2681 20850 11250 7619 25370 29570 2809 3883 4716 7974 5816 4308 16630 9004 8359 6482 5407 2925 7114 29130 12150 5055 6565 4773 4954 4860 7965 2996 4475 13110 7601 6208 3709 9990 5326 21680 7116 11510 4014 12490 4767 20270 7708 7233 19760 4147 8272 6084 6757 26310 6569 7988 4668 25120 5604 5450 23660 7220 7381 7009 6658 14520 8606 5582 7118 17250 11710 30640 16900 23550 8947 56790 33470 4764 21180 6205 6491 47140 18770 12440 3685 2576 49540 7526 25510 2428 3239 15630 2096 3110 6581 11790 18930 4240 5898 6665 22260 7897 34450 1908 5671 7559 6096 5186 7960 2918 9600 11530 3909 5422 17000 16390 7143 28960 7980 4661 21500 8934 9335 13910 8699 13600 12810 10490 31840 8873 5643 8964 4340 10360 2454 19710 6203 5786 4823 18850 6001 5267 6493 7559 1545 1784 21550 32010 5258 5004 23140 4544 6712 39200 14340 14540 13870 5769 4640 5460 6757 14460 1588 4513 6732 4361 5352 4506 5538 7479 4963 8311 10730 13380 14290 21860 7155 7610 16320 8251 4980 5608 19340 14600 18510 4742 3557 20810 5329 15420 12970 10420 16780 4980 5352 2854 10460 9582 5083 2821 11000 6046 17390 7828 3995 954 27960 15500 5495 4720 4831 22520 24180 24250 21270 16920 6758 7623 5707 7781 4541 7899 6072 8460 4142 3836 6076 13510 27040 16250 4717 7972 23560 6577 7798 23620 5752 5019 6064 10090 6379 5081 11780
2021-02-23 2821 4798 8199 7857 9084 9520 11350 3741 22870 29460 16850 4143 17240 7835 7427 8021 12960 21760 96030 6556 17050 8910 5597 24250 4385 24690 6813 44300 10500 6350 27540 6752 14030 29470 5782 24010 5998 8918 6674 9501 16240 13340 5396 13610 6820 9827 8110 8137 15180 11530 12380 3618 8803 19710 20520 5847 4687 4132 7420 10750 3022 5039 13750 2495 35940 22210 2658 7608 30130 8090 6880 10020 3987 19040 2699 20940 11340 7631 25480 29660 2815 3900 4745 7996 5831 4336 16690 9058 8379 6500 5430 2933 7138 29170 12160 5065 6604 4782 4963 4903 7989 3007 4488 13150 7640 6216 3735 10000 5341 21720 7141 11530 4036 12520 4796 20310 7739 7255 19780 4162 8300 6096 6775 26350 6606 8005 4696 25190 5631 5461 23720 7260 7396 7014 6679 14540 8619 5632 7151 17310 11730 30760 16940 23590 8966 57010 33560 4781 21210 6245 6505 47310 18870 12460 3693 2593 49680 7564 25540 2441 3251 15670 2104 3122 6603 11870 18970 4256 5918 6702 22340 7910 34510 1912 5689 7577 6109 5213 7992 2929 9607 11570 3927 5454 17050 16460 7172 29080 8019 4677 21580 8952 9370 14040 8725 13640 12880 10550 31890 8912 5679 9018 4357 10380 2465 19770 6211 5809 4830 18930 6036 5278 6531 7577 1568 1793 21590 32070 5262 5033 23220 4563 6730 39300 14430 14590 13950 5782 4660 5477 6793 14500 1593 4542 6752 4376 5381 4527 5561 7503 4983 8322 10770 13410 14310 21890 7199 7629 16380 8288 4993 5624 19420 14660 18560 4763 3581 20890 5348 15460 12990 10470 16840 5019 5372 2858 10540 9633 5101 2832 11010 6065 17430 7835 4002 955 27980 15530 5503 4726 4862 22620 24280 24290 21310 16950 6789 7645 5728 7811 4580 7925 6112 8486 4155 3842 6096 13530 27110 16360 4729 7991 23610 6619 7820 23670 5778 5043 6100 10150 6404 5096 11800
2021-02-24 2829 4817 8211 7896 9123 9531 11420 3750 22910 29500 16910 4162 17250 7862 7465 8035 12990 21780 96300 6583 17080 8947 5612 24350 4399 24740 6827 44460 10510 6375 27590 6763 14080 29550 5789 24090 6020 8924 6703 9506 16300 13400 5418 13620 6847 9846 8133 8149 15250 11590 12400 3630 8829 19780 20570 5878 4695 4149 7455 10770 3042 5078 13780 2503 36080 22260 2664 7641 30180 8107 6915 10030 4005 19100 2712 21030 11410 7643 25570 29730 2820 3913 4766 8015 5843 4359 16780 9094 8400 6507 5450 2941 7157 29200 12170 5073 6639 4790 4977 4939 7998 3023 4500 13190 7674 6224 3754 10020 5359 21750 7162 11550 4054 12540 4820 20340 7761 7274 19800 4173 8326 6111 6790 26380 6627 8017 4719 25250 5657 5466 23770 7301 7410 7025 6693 14560 8637 5673 7167 17370 11740 30880 16980 23620 8990 57210 33650 4796 21240 6276 6519 47440 18960 12470 3701 2602 49810 7609 25570 2451 3264 15700 2111 3130 6620 11920 19010 4268 5935 6737 22400 7922 34560 1916 5708 7597 6131 5236 8019 2935 9610 11600 3945 5485 17090 16520 7196 29180 8038 4692 21640 8985 9397 14120 8743 13660 12930 10590 31930 8945 5709 9061 4371 10400 2474 19820 6219 5829 4837 19000 6066 5286 6565 7589 1587 1801 21620 32120 5266 5061 23300 4579 6745 39410 14510 14630 14020 5792 4677 5491 6820 14540 1597 4567 6771 4388 5405 4545 5579 7525 5002 8327 10800 13430 14330 21910 7233 7646 16430 8318 5003 5636 19500 14720 18610 4787 3600 20960 5358 15490 13010 10510 16890 5043 5388 2863 10590 9674 5117 2841 11020 6081 17470 7841 4008 956 28000 15550 5511 4731 4888 22720 24340 24320 21350 16990 6814 7663 5738 7833 4604 7950 6142 8511 4168 3847 6110 13560 27170 16440 4737 8008 23660 6655 7837 23720 5800 5062 6131 10200 6420 5104 11820
2021-02-25 2836 4836 8219 7932 9169 9549 11480 3759 22940 29550 16970 4179 17270 7888 7501 8055 13020 21800 96540 6610 17120 8981 5626 24440 4413 24810 6836 44630 10520 6407 27650 6774 14120 29630 5808 24160 6040 8930 6728 9515 16350 13450 5440 13640 6869 9863 8154 8160 15320 11640 12420 3641 8854 19840 20620 5907 4707 4165 7489 10780 3061 5115 13810 2509 36210 22350 2671 7672 30230 8122 6942 10040 4022 19180 2725 21110 11470 7655 25650 29800 2826 3926 4785 8033 5854 4382 16820 9141 8420 6526 5470 2948 7174 29230 12180 5081 6673 4799 4984 4972 8014 3031 4511 13230 7713 6233 3775 10030 5377 21780 7181 11560 4070 12570 4843 20370 7781 7294 19820 4184 8351 6120 6806 26420 6653 8025 4740 25310 5681 5472 23830 7340 7422 7051 6706 14570 8645 5712 7191 17420 11750 31010 17010 23660 9007 57440 33760 4810 21270 6304 6533 47610 19040 12490 3709 2621 49930 7650 25600 2461 3279 15730 2117 3138 6639 11990 19050 4280 5966 6776 22460 7933 34610 1919 5735 7618 6139 5257 8044 2941 9625 11640 3963 5514 17150 16580 7220 29280 8072 4706 21710 9006 9422 14200 8764 13690 12990 10640 31960 8982 5738 9102 4385 10420 2484 19880 6226 5848 4847 19070 6095 5295 6597 7600 1604 1808 21690 32170 5270 5087 23370 4594 6758 39520 14590 14680 14080 5802 4693 5505 6849 14580 1601 4592 6791 4400 5428 4561 5596 7548 5016 8345 10840 13460 14350 21920 7265 7661 16500 8346 5019 5647 19580 14780 18670 4803 3617 21030 5373 15520 13030 10540 16960 5077 5403 2868 10650 9712 5136 2850 11020 6095 17500 7851 4014 957 28010 15590 5519 4736 4912 22800 24410 24350 21370 17040 6838 7681 5747 7854 4631 7969 6171 8536 4182 3852 6123 13590 27250 16520 4744 8024 23700 6690 7854 23800 5822 5080 6161 10250 6434 5125 11840
2021-02-26 2841 4855 8229 7958 9197 9555 11530 3767 22980 29600 17030 4195 17280 7910 7533 8070 13040 21820 96780 6635 17130 9010 5641 24520 4429 24860 6848 44780 10520 6425 27700 6784 14150 29690 5818 24230 6057 8936 6742 9522 16400 13490 5458 13650 6896 9880 8174 8171 15380 11680 12450 3650 8878 19890 20670 5932 4710 4178 7517 10800 3078 5150 13830 2515 36320 22380 2676 7699 30280 8136 6960 10050 4038 19230 2737 21170 11520 7666 25710 29870 2831 3936 4800 8050 5863 4403 16880 9165 8438 6533 5482 2955 7189 29260 12190 5089 6704 4809 4990 5000 8024 3040 4523 13250 7742 6237 3793 10040 5389 21800 7199 11580 4083 12590 4863 20400 7797 7312 19840 4189 8374 6125 6821 26450 6675 8030 4758 25360 5705 5472 23870 7359 7435 7066 6716 14590 8653 5746 7214 17460 11760 31110 17050 23690 9021 57590 33840 4822 21290 6327 6547 47690 19110 12500 3716 2631 50040 7688 25630 2469 3285 15760 2124 3145 6660 12030 19090 4290 5978 6803 22520 7943 34660 1922 5749 7641 6150 5277 8068 2951 9627 11660 3981 5543 17180 16610 7241 29380 8103 4720 21760 9016 9443 14240 8779 13720 13040 10670 32000 9006 5764 9136 4397 10440 2492 19920 6234 5866 4852 19150 6120 5302 6627 7609 1620 1815 21720 32210 5273 5105 23420 4608 6770 39620 14650 14710 14130 5807 4706 5517 6869 14610 1603 4615 6811 4410 5448 4575 5610 7571 5034 8346 10870 13480 14370 21930 7292 7676 16540 8371 5025 5656 19640 14810 18710 4817 3632 21070 5383 15540 13040 10580 17000 5090 5414 2870 10700 9744 5156 2858 11030 6108 17530 7853 4020 958 28030 15620 5526 4739 4933 22900 24460 24380 21380 17070 6859 7697 5752 7870 4648 7984 6195 8557 4196 3856 6133 13600 27320 16600 4749 8040 23730 6721 7868 23840 5843 5095 6187 10280 6448 5134 11860
2021-02-27 2845 4873 8243 7981 9220 9560 11580 3774 23010 29640 17090 4209 17300 7931 7564 8083 13060 21840 97030 6659 17160 9038 5656 24580 4444 24900 6863 44890 10530 6441 27730 6794 14190 29750 5831 24290 6073 8942 6763 9533 16440 13520 5475 13660 6912 9887 8192 8182 15440 11700 12470 3659 8900 19930 20720 5956 4717 4190 7545 10810 3093 5184 13850 2520 36430 22420 2681 7724 30320 8150 6974 10060 4053 19290 2747 21230 11570 7677 25770 29930 2835 3946 4813 8066 5872 4423 16910 9188 8452 6539 5500 2961 7202 29280 12190 5096 6734 4818 4999 5017 8030 3044 4533 13280 7759 6247 3803 10050 5402 21830 7215 11600 4095 12620 4883 20420 7811 7330 19860 4200 8398 6131 6835 26490 6684 8039 4775 25420 5728 5476 23910 7385 7452 7083 6724 14600 8664 5779 7235 17500 11770 31200 17080 23720 9043 57730 33920 4834 21310 6349 6562 47760 19190 12520 3724 2639 50140 7704 25650 2477 3292 15780 2130 3151 6674 12060 19130 4300 5996 6816 22580 7954 34700 1925 5760 7665 6159 5296 8090 2959 9646 11690 3998 5571 17230 16630 7261 29470 8125 4735 21810 9028 9462 14310 8790 13750 13090 10710 32040 9025 5789 9169 4409 10460 2501 19960 6242 5882 4854 19200 6145 5308 6656 7620 1634 1822 21760 32250 5276 5119 23460 4622 6781 39690 14710 14750 14180 5823 4719 5529 6886 14630 1605 4638 6831 4419 5468 4588 5623 7594 5046 8360 10890 13510 14390 21950 7318 7689 16580 8394 5031 5664 19690 14840 18760 4825 3646 21130 5386 15570 13050 10610 17050 5114 5425 2875 10750 9773 5169 2866 11030 6119 17560 7860 4026 960 28050 15670 5533 4743 4953 22970 24530 24410 21410 17100 6879 7713 5763 7885 4664 7996 6217 8579 4210 3859 6141 13610 27380 16670 4753 8055 23760 6752 7882 23890 5862 5110 6213 10320 6460 5148 11880

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-21 to 2021-02-27

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-20 2790 4739 8139 7712 8860 9491 11091 3707 22748 29284 16644 4072 17178 7734 7295 7925 12851 21677 94940 6460 16945 8773 5549 23866 4319 24443 6745 43807 10445 6214 27272 6712 13869 29183 5730 23712 5915 8898 6563 9446 16085 13153 5311 13571 6688 9737 8026 8099 14920 11374 12297 3572 8712 19459 20342 5734 4656 4063 7293 10709 2949 4906 13536 2466 35451 22061 2634 7485 29961 8031 6774 9977 3925 18879 2648 20652 11071 7593 25090 29405 2799 3849 4659 7930 5786 4253 16495 8855 8305 6421 5375 2906 7066 29048 12126 5035 6486 4757 4938 4772 7889 2961 4450 12978 7507 6175 3652 9965 5300 21607 7066 11463 3969 12421 4710 20202 7648 7190 19705 4107 8215 6046 6716 26216 6514 7947 4612 24988 5550 5437 23515 7110 7345 6998 6618 14471 8577 5483 7050 17113 11678 30402 16817 23462 8919 56333 33286 4729 21105 6128 6462 46803 18575 12385 3667 2547 49267 7395 25440 2402 3194 15561 2080 3088 6556 11606 18845 4210 5826 6556 22103 7870 34313 1900 5637 7522 6063 5132 7898 2902 9561 11461 3872 5358 16894 16229 7085 28726 7876 4628 21346 8913 9266 13742 8640 13558 12674 10376 31739 8749 5570 8853 4306 10318 2433 19530 6187 5736 4797 18667 5930 5245 6417 7511 1499 1767 21467 31877 5249 4934 22923 4506 6675 39008 14145 14413 13699 5718 4599 5425 6667 14388 1577 4456 6694 4332 5292 4463 5493 7433 4908 8259 10655 13338 14231 21815 7070 7567 16185 8177 4934 5577 19210 14499 18404 4693 3511 20621 5297 15341 12954 10336 16675 4932 5311 2842 10320 9480 5045 2797 10992 6008 17307 7810 3980 950 27926 15462 5479 4705 4767 22325 24097 24162 21163 16810 6697 7580 5636 7722 4484 7830 5995 8385 4116 3823 6037 13459 26894 16050 4693 7931 23457 6489 7755 23506 5699 4971 5990 9977 6334 5033 11742
2021-02-21 2794 4752 8154 7729 8888 9495 11120 3713 22770 29310 16700 4082 17190 7752 7323 7938 12890 21700 95110 6483 16960 8792 5563 23950 4334 24480 6755 43950 10460 6231 27300 6720 13880 29230 5732 23730 5927 8906 6583 9457 16140 13190 5322 13590 6710 9746 8036 8109 14950 11410 12310 3581 8729 19500 20380 5756 4666 4074 7310 10730 2963 4936 13560 2473 35540 22090 2638 7499 30000 8042 6794 9990 3939 18930 2656 20720 11110 7602 25140 29440 2806 3855 4670 7942 5794 4271 16540 8886 8317 6426 5383 2910 7079 29070 12130 5039 6513 4766 4946 4792 7901 2968 4459 13010 7534 6180 3663 9970 5306 21630 7075 11480 3980 12440 4725 20220 7660 7203 19730 4115 8231 6050 6730 26240 6530 7954 4627 25030 5569 5441 23550 7130 7355 7002 6628 14480 8586 5513 7065 17150 11700 30500 16850 23490 8934 56470 33370 4733 21120 6146 6475 46880 18640 12400 3674 2558 49370 7425 25460 2410 3204 15590 2085 3093 6567 11650 18880 4219 5841 6575 22140 7886 34340 1902 5648 7547 6074 5150 7918 2906 9581 11500 3888 5381 16940 16270 7100 28790 7904 4639 21390 8922 9283 13800 8650 13580 12710 10390 31770 8774 5593 8863 4320 10330 2444 19570 6193 5747 4800 18720 5955 5251 6440 7521 1509 1773 21510 31960 5255 4949 22970 4521 6682 39090 14200 14450 13720 5726 4607 5432 6689 14420 1579 4478 6710 4339 5301 4469 5502 7454 4921 8269 10680 13370 14240 21840 7088 7581 16230 8195 4942 5595 19280 14530 18450 4705 3518 20670 5302 15360 12960 10370 16720 4950 5320 2849 10360 9503 5058 2803 11010 6018 17330 7816 3997 952 27950 15480 5483 4712 4774 22410 24140 24180 21190 16840 6716 7588 5646 7731 4503 7841 6010 8406 4132 3827 6045 13470 26960 16100 4702 7945 23490 6505 7762 23530 5710 4978 6010 10010 6343 5045 11760
2021-02-22 2801 4769 8179 7760 8968 9507 11160 3720 22810 29350 16760 4098 17200 7775 7357 7955 12930 21710 95450 6508 17000 8824 5586 24070 4355 24550 6769 44120 10480 6259 27350 6731 13910 29310 5743 23770 5949 8916 6613 9475 16210 13260 5337 13600 6739 9756 8057 8120 15000 11470 12320 3591 8742 19570 20440 5785 4685 4089 7350 10740 2985 4969 13600 2480 35680 22170 2643 7520 30040 8055 6825 10000 3955 18980 2668 20810 11160 7608 25220 29520 2813 3870 4691 7959 5806 4293 16590 8936 8334 6437 5401 2914 7096 29100 12140 5051 6547 4777 4965 4833 7913 2980 4472 13050 7571 6187 3679 9980 5317 21650 7087 11500 3996 12460 4749 20240 7679 7223 19770 4125 8249 6060 6743 26270 6558 7964 4648 25070 5594 5450 23600 7168 7371 7009 6645 14500 8598 5549 7088 17220 11720 30620 16880 23530 8966 56670 33500 4743 21150 6171 6487 46990 18700 12410 3679 2574 49510 7470 25490 2419 3215 15620 2092 3098 6576 11710 18910 4229 5861 6627 22190 7903 34400 1906 5665 7569 6083 5171 7943 2912 9608 11540 3903 5416 16990 16320 7119 28900 7940 4648 21450 8938 9311 13860 8663 13610 12770 10410 31800 8813 5616 8880 4332 10350 2453 19660 6200 5759 4806 18810 5982 5264 6474 7530 1529 1780 21580 32090 5263 4972 23030 4536 6691 39180 14270 14490 13780 5744 4620 5442 6723 14460 1582 4499 6731 4351 5311 4477 5518 7477 4934 8305 10710 13420 14270 21870 7114 7597 16290 8223 4959 5613 19340 14580 18490 4721 3536 20750 5313 15380 12970 10400 16780 4970 5330 2860 10420 9535 5067 2812 11020 6032 17360 7820 4012 953 27960 15520 5486 4723 4787 22500 24210 24210 21230 16880 6738 7598 5660 7748 4525 7858 6042 8435 4145 3832 6062 13490 27030 16180 4717 7958 23540 6524 7777 23600 5730 4991 6033 10040 6360 5065 11780
2021-02-23 2806 4787 8199 7787 9010 9518 11200 3726 22840 29380 16830 4111 17210 7795 7388 7972 12970 21730 95760 6533 17030 8855 5605 24170 4371 24610 6780 44270 10500 6282 27380 6740 13930 29390 5756 23800 5966 8925 6642 9484 16260 13320 5349 13620 6761 9761 8076 8133 15030 11510 12330 3600 8754 19640 20490 5811 4696 4101 7379 10740 3004 5001 13620 2487 35800 22230 2648 7546 30070 8066 6850 10000 3968 19030 2678 20890 11200 7616 25280 29580 2821 3880 4707 7973 5815 4313 16640 8975 8352 6444 5421 2917 7110 29110 12150 5061 6585 4787 4979 4869 7923 2987 4486 13080 7602 6192 3692 9990 5325 21670 7097 11510 4010 12470 4771 20260 7693 7243 19800 4134 8267 6068 6754 26290 6587 7975 4666 25120 5617 5460 23650 7198 7384 7015 6659 14510 8610 5582 7111 17270 11740 30730 16910 23570 8990 56850 33630 4749 21170 6192 6499 47120 18770 12420 3683 2588 49640 7503 25510 2428 3223 15650 2098 3102 6589 11770 18950 4238 5878 6660 22230 7919 34440 1909 5681 7591 6091 5190 7966 2921 9629 11590 3920 5446 17040 16380 7137 29000 7971 4658 21510 8954 9331 13980 8678 13640 12810 10430 31830 8845 5639 8895 4344 10360 2461 19710 6208 5770 4809 18880 6007 5275 6506 7540 1542 1787 21640 32200 5272 4992 23070 4549 6698 39260 14340 14520 13820 5755 4631 5453 6752 14490 1584 4520 6756 4361 5322 4484 5533 7500 4944 8326 10740 13460 14290 21890 7135 7611 16340 8248 4970 5630 19410 14630 18530 4737 3549 20820 5325 15400 12990 10430 16840 4998 5338 2868 10470 9562 5076 2819 11020 6045 17380 7824 4026 953 27980 15550 5491 4733 4799 22580 24290 24240 21270 16910 6759 7607 5670 7762 4547 7875 6064 8455 4159 3838 6076 13500 27090 16250 4729 7969 23600 6543 7788 23650 5750 4999 6055 10080 6375 5079 11800
2021-02-24 2810 4801 8214 7820 9043 9528 11230 3733 22880 29440 16890 4123 17220 7811 7417 7982 13010 21750 96020 6556 17070 8880 5626 24260 4386 24670 6791 44420 10520 6302 27410 6751 13940 29460 5763 23820 5982 8934 6667 9492 16320 13370 5360 13630 6784 9768 8092 8143 15070 11560 12340 3608 8764 19690 20540 5836 4709 4112 7403 10750 3022 5032 13650 2492 35910 22290 2653 7567 30110 8077 6878 10010 3985 19080 2688 20970 11240 7623 25350 29650 2828 3890 4720 7987 5823 4333 16700 9008 8368 6448 5441 2920 7123 29140 12150 5070 6612 4797 4997 4902 7927 2999 4499 13120 7631 6197 3703 10000 5337 21690 7107 11530 4022 12500 4791 20280 7705 7264 19820 4144 8284 6077 6766 26320 6607 7983 4683 25170 5640 5468 23690 7230 7395 7023 6672 14520 8624 5614 7127 17320 11760 30840 16940 23610 9017 57030 33740 4756 21190 6212 6513 47210 18830 12440 3687 2598 49770 7540 25530 2435 3232 15670 2105 3107 6603 11830 18990 4247 5893 6692 22280 7934 34490 1912 5697 7614 6100 5208 7987 2928 9646 11630 3936 5475 17080 16430 7155 29090 7989 4668 21560 8980 9347 14040 8691 13670 12860 10440 31860 8875 5661 8908 4355 10380 2469 19760 6214 5781 4815 18950 6031 5285 6537 7549 1558 1794 21700 32300 5280 5012 23120 4562 6704 39340 14400 14550 13860 5765 4641 5462 6776 14530 1586 4541 6778 4370 5332 4491 5550 7516 4955 8343 10770 13500 14310 21910 7155 7625 16390 8271 4979 5646 19470 14680 18570 4757 3560 20880 5333 15420 13000 10470 16890 5018 5346 2877 10520 9588 5086 2825 11030 6057 17410 7828 4043 955 28000 15580 5496 4741 4808 22670 24340 24270 21300 16940 6776 7613 5679 7779 4567 7892 6090 8477 4173 3842 6093 13520 27140 16320 4737 7981 23640 6562 7800 23700 5768 5009 6074 10110 6388 5091 11820
2021-02-25 2813 4817 8229 7850 9085 9542 11250 3739 22910 29460 16950 4134 17230 7827 7447 8002 13040 21770 96260 6580 17110 8910 5643 24360 4402 24710 6800 44580 10540 6329 27450 6761 13970 29520 5777 23850 5996 8943 6692 9504 16370 13430 5371 13640 6808 9776 8103 8153 15110 11600 12360 3617 8775 19740 20580 5860 4726 4123 7432 10770 3038 5066 13690 2497 36020 22380 2658 7589 30140 8086 6905 10020 3998 19140 2697 21050 11280 7631 25420 29700 2835 3900 4733 8000 5830 4354 16740 9051 8383 6463 5461 2924 7136 29160 12160 5079 6641 4808 5015 4936 7941 3005 4511 13150 7664 6203 3717 10010 5348 21710 7116 11550 4033 12520 4810 20300 7719 7284 19850 4152 8301 6086 6777 26340 6627 7991 4699 25210 5664 5477 23740 7264 7404 7041 6684 14530 8634 5644 7150 17370 11780 30960 16980 23640 9035 57250 33860 4768 21200 6231 6527 47340 18890 12460 3691 2613 49890 7579 25560 2443 3245 15700 2112 3112 6617 11890 19020 4256 5918 6730 22320 7949 34530 1915 5719 7639 6108 5226 8008 2933 9672 11670 3954 5502 17130 16480 7173 29180 8018 4678 21610 8993 9363 14100 8705 13700 12910 10460 31890 8910 5683 8924 4366 10390 2477 19820 6225 5792 4822 19030 6054 5294 6566 7557 1572 1801 21780 32390 5288 5033 23170 4574 6712 39440 14460 14590 13920 5778 4651 5474 6801 14570 1588 4561 6799 4379 5342 4498 5560 7537 4963 8372 10800 13550 14330 21930 7175 7638 16450 8294 4992 5661 19540 14730 18610 4770 3581 20950 5340 15430 13020 10500 16950 5045 5353 2885 10570 9616 5097 2833 11040 6069 17430 7833 4056 956 28010 15620 5503 4749 4815 22750 24410 24290 21320 16990 6794 7627 5689 7790 4588 7909 6115 8497 4188 3846 6114 13550 27200 16390 4745 7991 23680 6585 7808 23770 5785 5020 6098 10140 6401 5113 11840
2021-02-26 2817 4834 8244 7874 9126 9553 11280 3746 22940 29490 17000 4145 17250 7844 7476 8018 13070 21790 96550 6603 17140 8940 5662 24450 4418 24780 6812 44730 10560 6354 27490 6771 14000 29610 5789 23880 6009 8952 6714 9513 16420 13480 5382 13650 6838 9785 8115 8166 15140 11640 12370 3625 8786 19790 20650 5883 4742 4133 7457 10780 3055 5097 13720 2503 36120 22440 2663 7613 30180 8096 6928 10030 4010 19200 2707 21110 11320 7639 25480 29770 2842 3910 4743 8011 5837 4374 16790 9089 8400 6474 5477 2927 7148 29170 12170 5086 6669 4818 5029 4965 7948 3013 4523 13180 7693 6210 3728 10020 5359 21720 7124 11570 4044 12540 4829 20320 7734 7301 19870 4159 8321 6094 6788 26360 6647 7999 4715 25250 5686 5483 23790 7292 7419 7060 6696 14540 8646 5675 7174 17420 11800 31060 17020 23670 9053 57420 33980 4776 21220 6250 6540 47430 18950 12470 3695 2622 50010 7619 25580 2450 3256 15730 2118 3116 6631 11940 19060 4264 5939 6765 22360 7964 34560 1918 5734 7664 6116 5244 8029 2940 9687 11710 3971 5526 17170 16520 7190 29270 8053 4689 21670 9012 9380 14150 8720 13740 12960 10470 31920 8943 5705 8938 4377 10410 2484 19860 6235 5803 4827 19110 6077 5302 6595 7565 1583 1808 21850 32470 5294 5051 23210 4587 6719 39530 14530 14630 13980 5789 4661 5480 6828 14600 1589 4582 6815 4389 5352 4506 5574 7558 4977 8398 10820 13600 14350 21960 7193 7652 16510 8320 5003 5676 19600 14770 18650 4786 3596 21020 5346 15450 13040 10520 17010 5062 5361 2892 10620 9644 5109 2840 11050 6081 17450 7837 4070 957 28030 15650 5513 4756 4829 22840 24470 24310 21340 17020 6811 7634 5695 7800 4608 7928 6134 8516 4202 3850 6132 13560 27240 16460 4755 8002 23710 6602 7817 23820 5798 5031 6118 10170 6415 5128 11850
2021-02-27 2820 4847 8254 7898 9154 9561 11310 3752 22970 29520 17060 4154 17260 7859 7505 8029 13100 21800 96800 6626 17170 8963 5673 24520 4434 24830 6825 44850 10570 6371 27520 6780 14010 29660 5802 23900 6018 8961 6736 9525 16460 13520 5392 13670 6863 9790 8125 8176 15180 11670 12380 3631 8796 19830 20690 5907 4751 4143 7473 10790 3071 5126 13750 2508 36210 22510 2667 7636 30220 8106 6950 10040 4024 19250 2715 21160 11360 7647 25540 29810 2850 3918 4751 8022 5844 4387 16830 9116 8414 6481 5491 2930 7160 29200 12180 5093 6694 4828 5046 4983 7956 3020 4535 13210 7714 6216 3736 10030 5371 21740 7132 11580 4055 12560 4848 20340 7745 7316 19900 4169 8339 6100 6800 26390 6660 8009 4731 25290 5709 5486 23830 7323 7429 7070 6707 14550 8658 5705 7188 17460 11820 31140 17050 23700 9067 57570 34070 4784 21240 6268 6553 47500 19010 12480 3700 2630 50110 7647 25590 2458 3262 15760 2124 3121 6644 11990 19100 4272 5959 6790 22400 7979 34600 1921 5745 7686 6125 5261 8050 2946 9708 11750 3988 5551 17220 16560 7208 29360 8081 4699 21720 9024 9393 14200 8734 13760 13000 10480 31950 8970 5728 8946 4388 10420 2492 19900 6243 5813 4831 19160 6100 5311 6625 7572 1592 1816 21910 32550 5299 5067 23260 4600 6727 39600 14590 14670 14030 5803 4670 5488 6849 14630 1591 4603 6826 4397 5361 4512 5585 7575 4985 8420 10850 13640 14370 21970 7210 7664 16550 8340 5012 5691 19660 14810 18680 4796 3607 21080 5351 15470 13050 10550 17060 5080 5368 2899 10660 9667 5119 2848 11060 6093 17470 7841 4080 959 28050 15680 5518 4762 4836 22890 24520 24340 21360 17060 6827 7642 5709 7813 4627 7943 6148 8535 4217 3853 6140 13570 27270 16530 4763 8013 23730 6616 7826 23860 5812 5042 6134 10200 6428 5147 11870

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.