COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-22

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-22

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-2612-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-122021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-01-1410-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-222021-01-0612-2112-2312-2712-1812-282021-01-1312-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-2312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-032021-01-132021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-272021-01-022021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2612-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 77 477 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 422 1251 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 189 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 285 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 283 35 367 289 38 183 598 151 69 188 72 246 26 249 187 118 323 538 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 589 271 95 74 53 89 73 124 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 201 57 398 175 103 339 101 109 135 121 482 100 156 47 443 57 115 450 138 84 134 236 275 149 71 100 296 197 190 311 429 107 379 287 104 444 71 113 731 272 200 90 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 720 23 50 159 105 50 108 59 124 122 41 55 275 158 122 225 90 44 125 126 109 155 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 171 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 34 26 163 451 42 82 404 65 130 243 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 96 78 108 80 67 102 114 245 294 455 131 151 222 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 201 106 320 189 181 125 55 107 46 140 321 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 557 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 228 77 139 117 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 57 58 57 63 57 76 63 61 58 61 132 57 61 56 42 54 57 62 55 57 57 50 41 52 99 56 63 116 62 57 57 71 57 56 59 63 58 62 54 54 57 111 63 58 59 76 57 63 63 49 62 55 58 62 63 51 63 63 51 58 57 56 55 62 62 54 56 57 57 63 59 63 63 51 39 131 57 77 58 57 60 55 60 63 112 58 114 57 55 56 63 59 62 59 70 62 47 63 61 57 66 56 40 57 58 63 57 62 63 57 63 57 62 63 63 63 62 57 57 62 62 71 57 61 56 63 55 57 56 60 59 63 52 56 57 62 56 56 59 117 63 57 57 55 54 57 56 63 57 57 85 57 57 62 63 49 54 50 62 110 55 63 63 63 62 59 62 58 56 55 50 110 56 76 57 120 58 63 110 63 54 111 40 49 57 63 54 55 63 57 56 57 57 51 47 55 51 55 63 47 48 62 56 63 57 56 71 53 71 128 54 57 57 59 27 56 55 55 50 63 57 55 60 57 54 59 57 63 62 63 56 58 59 49 62 105 60 63 64 50 56 57 62 63 70 56 58 63 58 59 114 62 56 63 113 63 61 62 57 63 77 59 56 54 61 54 49 57 63 58 63 63 72 61 54 63 62 56 62 58 63 117 56 57 66 59 63 63 62 63 57 59 64 71 56 77 62 57 57 55 55 62 62 56 57 62 57 52 56 54 63 54 58 56
Last total 2801 4777 8185 7767 8943 9513 11137 3719 22809 29372 16754 4087 17216 7779 7346 7943 12909 21728 95408 6505 17032 8797 5588 24034 4369 24506 6766 44095 10476 6252 27361 6744 13910 29283 5747 23771 5946 8919 6613 9476 16199 13227 5336 13605 6724 9749 8047 8112 14991 11473 12340 3584 8752 19566 20462 5781 4672 4078 7329 10773 2973 4967 13588 2474 35618 22229 2639 7511 30030 8066 6832 9999 3950 18992 2656 20822 11128 7614 25234 29518 2817 3879 4674 7944 5815 4287 16571 8910 8344 6438 5408 2918 7087 29101 12148 5045 6542 4779 4965 4842 7905 2975 4479 13039 7588 6186 3670 9989 5325 21653 7087 11495 3998 12460 4734 20242 7677 7235 19771 4125 8264 6072 6753 26266 6558 7968 4645 25070 5600 5455 23615 7160 7378 7057 6628 14520 8599 5527 7093 17246 11699 30612 16885 23503 8983 56676 33518 4754 21150 6169 6496 46977 18684 12418 3678 2583 49531 7472 25514 2417 3221 15609 2098 3101 6577 11687 18934 4226 5855 6613 22193 7903 34392 1903 5655 7577 6085 5183 7941 2908 9605 11529 3923 5437 16982 16318 7104 28918 7929 4657 21446 8955 9302 13846 8658 13625 12758 10427 31823 8802 5619 8885 4329 10348 2446 19644 6201 5760 4810 18801 5971 5257 6458 7533 1509 1779 21575 32092 5270 4968 23002 4523 6690 39257 14249 14480 13763 5736 4608 5446 6726 14442 1581 4509 6752 4351 5315 4483 5520 7484 4931 8295 10702 13421 14270 21857 7090 7589 16291 8219 4957 5598 19362 14579 18500 4717 3530 20747 5315 15395 12989 10413 16803 4973 5317 2849 10416 9525 5072 2806 11025 6028 17360 7829 4004 951 27976 15533 5495 4713 4795 22469 24223 24203 21248 16898 6741 7601 5657 7734 4518 7853 6025 1130 8421 4159 3831 6065 13499 27041 16161 4707 7956 23567 6523 7792 23640 5739 5011 6029 10036 6356 5088 11783
Last daily increment 5 26 26 30 54 13 29 9 40 53 67 11 21 18 29 9 31 34 265 23 45 14 24 103 28 53 13 163 24 19 44 22 22 60 8 40 16 14 30 24 63 42 14 16 18 7 16 5 43 54 20 7 19 76 74 23 10 3 21 35 14 29 37 5 86 101 2 13 37 24 41 12 18 59 4 103 42 17 72 60 10 22 10 5 18 28 38 35 21 9 14 4 9 30 11 6 32 11 16 41 8 10 15 30 50 8 12 12 13 23 10 16 15 17 16 23 8 32 33 7 30 15 21 31 30 8 20 40 30 11 44 33 14 30 7 25 7 25 30 79 11 106 28 27 35 186 138 14 28 27 21 90 56 10 8 20 133 61 45 9 8 30 6 13 15 44 42 7 17 29 49 17 43 1 12 34 14 28 19 4 24 35 35 54 53 53 10 111 28 16 50 23 24 59 15 34 30 31 46 30 27 19 16 19 6 61 6 16 7 61 20 8 26 13 7 10 54 135 18 23 52 9 12 110 73 33 34 9 3 14 43 30 3 29 32 11 17 9 9 28 13 24 16 52 14 16 12 12 58 26 17 12 95 44 59 14 16 79 8 32 21 45 73 23 4 6 56 29 18 4 17 11 26 13 13 1 32 40 11 6 9 69 61 28 46 57 21 9 9 8 16 16 11 0 21 23 5 13 12 89 70 11 18 79 16 21 71 23 35 28 35 16 27 19
Last week 24 119 112 178 203 62 140 44 198 271 353 61 111 89 171 73 185 156 1539 139 224 99 118 519 110 314 63 928 105 123 260 75 125 381 55 170 87 47 142 74 349 254 64 111 127 52 65 59 223 287 109 40 131 307 324 109 63 55 114 162 60 199 160 31 532 432 22 106 281 96 152 68 99 385 50 460 246 73 415 355 54 51 51 66 59 114 296 172 105 45 113 31 69 188 62 34 168 65 88 187 49 47 87 178 203 37 79 68 89 153 61 114 66 155 72 135 73 124 226 52 129 53 91 158 126 51 86 276 140 46 314 166 95 131 39 107 70 161 127 325 87 687 190 168 185 1082 712 64 119 111 95 558 351 86 39 91 772 209 183 45 65 165 48 31 106 243 280 48 96 170 245 110 247 9 88 180 66 120 125 36 131 221 135 177 300 268 73 537 152 78 284 139 95 371 74 208 261 114 215 145 152 87 74 101 55 309 57 70 36 412 138 37 142 53 45 36 360 627 58 117 269 75 49 676 311 239 207 67 36 57 151 203 10 159 153 38 75 46 82 149 96 103 147 275 96 133 78 71 304 117 51 81 464 263 330 90 61 376 50 141 94 233 354 147 34 39 258 127 94 37 102 61 181 43 103 6 163 268 46 34 72 524 424 144 183 231 110 69 48 55 120 86 101 3 126 104 31 95 116 446 364 35 90 280 124 83 388 104 98 139 182 75 123 148
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2710-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0511-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-09 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 163 99 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 42 52 59 360 152 86 541 254 529 611 61 73 391 51 35 58 68 608 256 82 101 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 66 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 136 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 95 20 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 13 16 6 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 8 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-23 to 2021-03-01

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-22 2801 4777 8185 7767 8943 9513 11137 3719 22809 29372 16754 4087 17216 7779 7346 7943 12909 21728 95408 6505 17032 8797 5588 24034 4369 24506 6766 44095 10476 6252 27361 6744 13910 29283 5747 23771 5946 8919 6613 9476 16199 13227 5336 13605 6724 9749 8047 8112 14991 11473 12340 3584 8752 19566 20462 5781 4672 4078 7329 10773 2973 4967 13588 2474 35618 22229 2639 7511 30030 8066 6832 9999 3950 18992 2656 20822 11128 7614 25234 29518 2817 3879 4674 7944 5815 4287 16571 8910 8344 6438 5408 2918 7087 29101 12148 5045 6542 4779 4965 4842 7905 2975 4479 13039 7588 6186 3670 9989 5325 21653 7087 11495 3998 12460 4734 20242 7677 7235 19771 4125 8264 6072 6753 26266 6558 7968 4645 25070 5600 5455 23615 7160 7378 7057 6628 14520 8599 5527 7093 17246 11699 30612 16885 23503 8983 56676 33518 4754 21150 6169 6496 46977 18684 12418 3678 2583 49531 7472 25514 2417 3221 15609 2098 3101 6577 11687 18934 4226 5855 6613 22193 7903 34392 1903 5655 7577 6085 5183 7941 2908 9605 11529 3923 5437 16982 16318 7104 28918 7929 4657 21446 8955 9302 13846 8658 13625 12758 10427 31823 8802 5619 8885 4329 10348 2446 19644 6201 5760 4810 18801 5971 5257 6458 7533 1509 1779 21575 32092 5270 4968 23002 4523 6690 39257 14249 14480 13763 5736 4608 5446 6726 14442 1581 4509 6752 4351 5315 4483 5520 7484 4931 8295 10702 13421 14270 21857 7090 7589 16291 8219 4957 5598 19362 14579 18500 4717 3530 20747 5315 15395 12989 10413 16803 4973 5317 2849 10416 9525 5072 2806 11025 6028 17360 7829 4004 951 27976 15533 5495 4713 4795 22469 24223 24203 21248 16898 6741 7601 5657 7734 4518 7853 6025 8421 4159 3831 6065 13499 27041 16161 4707 7956 23567 6523 7792 23640 5739 5011 6029 10036 6356 5088 11783
2021-02-23 2804 4835 8219 7798 9035 9534 11170 3725 22850 29440 16830 4099 17240 7785 7394 7955 12940 21760 95780 6528 17060 8884 5621 24180 4386 24610 6782 44270 10490 6278 27460 6751 13940 29310 5766 23820 5963 8934 6653 9508 16250 13320 5359 13630 6767 9761 8091 8126 15030 11520 12360 3585 8765 19650 20530 5833 4688 4087 7353 10800 2987 5004 13620 2479 35710 22300 2640 7536 30080 8093 6864 10020 3964 19040 2665 20920 11140 7625 25380 29620 2825 3889 4684 7961 5826 4306 16660 8947 8378 6452 5429 2923 7099 29120 12180 5061 6571 4789 5006 4885 7945 2990 4492 13080 7624 6200 3695 10000 5352 21680 7098 11520 4010 12480 4780 20280 7682 7255 19810 4135 8289 6096 6769 26320 6595 7993 4669 25120 5624 5473 23690 7228 7400 7083 6632 14530 8619 5556 7140 17310 11720 30730 16900 23520 9030 56760 33700 4771 21180 6182 6511 47220 18750 12450 3688 2592 49700 7525 25560 2423 3235 15650 2107 3107 6595 11800 18990 4234 5903 6678 22240 7917 34430 1906 5668 7602 6098 5202 7962 2919 9629 11570 3942 5466 17040 16410 7122 28990 7996 4672 21520 8955 9322 13980 8698 13670 12840 10450 31880 8885 5643 8918 4341 10370 2455 19720 6213 5778 4820 18900 5994 5267 6485 7548 1518 1785 21730 32200 5286 5002 23060 4535 6694 39360 14320 14530 13860 5758 4616 5465 6768 14490 1584 4538 6774 4362 5328 4488 5525 7503 4931 8331 10730 13480 14340 21880 7106 7600 16380 8260 4992 5614 19460 14660 18550 4748 3542 20870 5325 15420 13040 10440 16870 5003 5325 2852 10470 9565 5076 2812 11030 6041 17370 7848 4021 953 28030 15620 5524 4722 4802 22580 24340 24240 21300 16960 6761 7626 5670 7745 4558 7908 6045 8467 4175 3841 6070 13530 27120 16230 4718 7978 23640 6540 7809 23770 5758 5027 6052 10060 6388 5097 11810
2021-02-24 2813 4876 8243 7857 9091 9551 11200 3736 22910 29520 16910 4129 17260 7802 7436 7962 12990 21790 96110 6564 17090 8936 5675 24310 4401 24670 6807 44440 10510 6334 27530 6763 13960 29350 5776 23860 5998 8953 6687 9528 16310 13380 5396 13670 6806 9772 8120 8144 15090 11590 12380 3585 8780 19720 20590 5865 4705 4115 7410 10820 3019 5037 13660 2494 35830 22390 2642 7601 30160 8137 6905 10040 3989 19100 2689 21020 11200 7635 25510 29710 2834 3907 4694 7992 5846 4336 16760 8972 8402 6462 5455 2927 7131 29170 12200 5073 6615 4797 5040 4926 7973 3009 4507 13160 7663 6213 3715 10020 5372 21730 7119 11550 4035 12510 4809 20360 7693 7281 19870 4149 8307 6113 6788 26360 6620 8007 4708 25200 5652 5483 23750 7290 7417 7111 6650 14550 8639 5620 7171 17370 11740 30860 16940 23570 9076 56890 33860 4792 21230 6195 6525 47340 18880 12470 3697 2601 49850 7582 25620 2430 3253 15730 2120 3111 6615 11880 19040 4255 5940 6724 22310 7940 34490 1912 5681 7616 6117 5228 7999 2927 9651 11620 3953 5496 17100 16490 7165 29090 8039 4688 21570 8980 9365 14070 8725 13700 12910 10480 31930 8943 5667 8943 4359 10400 2468 19790 6224 5806 4832 18980 6037 5285 6533 7574 1532 1796 21840 32320 5309 5035 23150 4560 6701 39480 14390 14570 13930 5775 4643 5484 6802 14530 1593 4570 6790 4384 5346 4493 5530 7518 4940 8357 10780 13530 14390 21920 7129 7610 16450 8299 5015 5639 19550 14710 18610 4784 3573 20960 5341 15460 13080 10450 16930 5028 5339 2860 10510 9633 5090 2827 11040 6070 17390 7861 4056 955 28090 15700 5545 4747 4809 22690 24440 24290 21340 17010 6796 7671 5694 7765 4585 7950 6074 8503 4183 3850 6077 13550 27190 16350 4742 7996 23680 6558 7830 23860 5781 5055 6100 10100 6409 5109 11850
2021-02-25 2819 4916 8264 7903 9140 9566 11230 3744 22950 29590 16970 4151 17280 7814 7476 7975 13030 21810 96420 6594 17120 8979 5717 24410 4414 24720 6826 44620 10530 6374 27590 6775 13990 29380 5781 23900 6024 8968 6712 9553 16360 13440 5426 13700 6833 9783 8136 8158 15140 11640 12400 3585 8794 19770 20650 5889 4717 4135 7451 10840 3043 5075 13680 2504 35940 22470 2644 7646 30210 8171 6932 10050 4008 19170 2707 21100 11210 7645 25600 29770 2842 3921 4700 8014 5861 4361 16800 9000 8424 6474 5480 2931 7153 29200 12220 5083 6651 4806 5060 4960 7998 3018 4521 13220 7704 6226 3733 10040 5395 21770 7136 11580 4054 12540 4830 20410 7701 7304 19920 4162 8332 6128 6806 26400 6647 8016 4739 25270 5678 5494 23800 7340 7432 7144 6661 14570 8654 5667 7205 17430 11760 30980 16960 23600 9111 57060 34020 4810 21260 6207 6539 47460 18980 12490 3705 2621 49970 7625 25670 2436 3269 15790 2131 3117 6636 11950 19090 4270 5972 6767 22370 7956 34530 1917 5693 7635 6132 5251 8028 2935 9688 11660 3967 5524 17150 16540 7196 29170 8082 4703 21620 9007 9397 14140 8752 13740 12970 10510 31980 8995 5691 8964 4375 10420 2479 19850 6239 5828 4842 19060 6070 5298 6571 7594 1544 1804 21950 32410 5328 5062 23220 4580 6707 39600 14440 14610 13990 5793 4661 5498 6831 14580 1599 4601 6809 4400 5361 4497 5534 7534 4950 8385 10820 13580 14430 21950 7148 7620 16510 8332 5037 5660 19640 14760 18660 4806 3595 21040 5354 15480 13110 10460 16990 5062 5349 2864 10540 9687 5101 2838 11040 6091 17420 7870 4083 957 28140 15760 5561 4764 4816 22780 24520 24330 21370 17050 6823 7706 5712 7780 4611 7978 6092 8535 4194 3859 6083 13580 27270 16450 4759 8005 23740 6575 7848 23980 5801 5071 6137 10130 6423 5126 11880
2021-02-26 2824 4950 8283 7941 9178 9580 11260 3751 22990 29650 17020 4168 17300 7824 7504 7989 13060 21840 96710 6620 17140 9016 5753 24500 4431 24780 6842 44760 10540 6407 27650 6785 14020 29430 5789 23930 6045 8980 6728 9572 16410 13480 5450 13720 6864 9795 8148 8171 15190 11680 12410 3585 8808 19830 20710 5915 4736 4149 7483 10870 3062 5105 13700 2511 36030 22540 2645 7681 30270 8198 6953 10070 4024 19230 2720 21170 11230 7656 25670 29840 2850 3933 4705 8032 5873 4382 16860 9014 8445 6479 5493 2935 7170 29220 12230 5092 6683 4815 5078 4993 8009 3029 4535 13270 7736 6232 3748 10050 5411 21800 7150 11610 4069 12560 4843 20450 7707 7326 19960 4172 8358 6137 6822 26430 6675 8022 4765 25330 5703 5497 23860 7376 7446 7172 6668 14580 8668 5705 7236 17470 11770 31090 16980 23630 9145 57170 34160 4826 21290 6217 6553 47550 19060 12500 3712 2631 50090 7671 25720 2442 3279 15840 2141 3122 6656 12000 19140 4281 5993 6797 22420 7979 34570 1920 5701 7656 6146 5271 8052 2943 9701 11700 3983 5546 17180 16580 7222 29240 8128 4718 21670 9032 9423 14200 8770 13770 13020 10530 32020 9038 5713 8982 4388 10440 2488 19900 6252 5847 4848 19140 6099 5308 6603 7611 1554 1812 22050 32520 5344 5082 23280 4595 6711 39720 14490 14660 14040 5800 4675 5512 6856 14610 1603 4631 6829 4414 5375 4501 5539 7551 4961 8410 10850 13630 14460 21980 7163 7630 16580 8352 5055 5678 19700 14810 18710 4829 3612 21100 5365 15510 13140 10480 17050 5077 5358 2869 10590 9733 5110 2847 11050 6108 17430 7880 4104 958 28190 15810 5580 4777 4823 22890 24580 24360 21380 17100 6846 7734 5726 7792 4630 8002 6110 8559 4206 3866 6088 13600 27340 16530 4772 8019 23780 6592 7864 24060 5820 5085 6168 10150 6437 5134 11900
2021-02-27 2828 4971 8299 7978 9208 9590 11290 3758 23030 29700 17070 4184 17310 7833 7533 8007 13100 21860 96930 6645 17150 9051 5788 24570 4446 24820 6858 44880 10550 6438 27690 6796 14040 29460 5803 23970 6065 8993 6750 9592 16450 13520 5473 13740 6883 9809 8157 8183 15230 11710 12430 3585 8822 19860 20740 5931 4756 4163 7514 10890 3080 5130 13700 2518 36130 22600 2647 7714 30320 8225 6971 10080 4040 19280 2732 21220 11250 7666 25740 29900 2858 3945 4711 8048 5885 4402 16890 9029 8461 6482 5506 2940 7186 29240 12250 5101 6715 4824 5091 5014 8020 3035 4548 13320 7753 6240 3760 10060 5427 21830 7164 11630 4083 12580 4857 20490 7712 7347 20000 4182 8373 6146 6839 26460 6689 8029 4790 25390 5727 5504 23910 7420 7463 7185 6674 14590 8682 5741 7256 17510 11790 31180 17000 23650 9176 57270 34290 4841 21320 6219 6568 47620 19130 12520 3720 2639 50190 7690 25760 2448 3290 15890 2151 3127 6670 12040 19180 4292 6015 6817 22460 7994 34600 1923 5709 7678 6159 5292 8076 2950 9731 11740 3999 5565 17230 16620 7246 29310 8169 4732 21730 9045 9447 14260 8782 13800 13050 10550 32060 9079 5735 8993 4401 10460 2497 19950 6260 5866 4851 19200 6126 5318 6634 7626 1564 1819 22130 32640 5360 5099 23340 4611 6715 39810 14540 14710 14080 5814 4687 5525 6876 14640 1608 4656 6850 4427 5388 4505 5543 7569 4967 8440 10880 13680 14500 22010 7178 7639 16630 8369 5070 5694 19760 14850 18760 4847 3627 21160 5377 15540 13160 10500 17090 5101 5365 2877 10630 9776 5119 2855 11050 6123 17450 7890 4125 960 28230 15870 5593 4789 4831 22950 24630 24390 21410 17120 6868 7761 5739 7803 4646 8015 6125 8580 4220 3873 6092 13610 27400 16610 4784 8033 23820 6609 7880 24140 5839 5098 6197 10180 6451 5147 11930
2021-02-28 2832 4990 8315 8011 9231 9593 11310 3763 23070 29760 17110 4197 17330 7840 7552 8015 13130 21890 97090 6669 17170 9069 5819 24620 4462 24830 6873 44990 10560 6465 27720 6806 14050 29470 5807 24000 6083 9005 6766 9601 16500 13540 5494 13770 6897 9814 8161 8194 15270 11740 12450 3585 8835 19890 20770 5947 4762 4173 7541 10910 3095 5148 13700 2524 36220 22660 2648 7742 30370 8248 6983 10100 4055 19320 2743 21280 11250 7676 25790 29930 2866 3956 4711 8064 5895 4421 16920 9030 8476 6482 5518 2944 7199 29260 12260 5110 6744 4834 5099 5034 8025 3037 4561 13360 7777 6242 3768 10070 5438 21860 7176 11650 4095 12600 4863 20520 7717 7367 20040 4192 8390 6152 6854 26490 6703 8037 4812 25440 5750 5504 23950 7439 7477 7196 6678 14610 8695 5772 7268 17550 11800 31260 17010 23680 9197 57330 34390 4855 21340 6219 6583 47700 19200 12530 3727 2651 50310 7705 25800 2454 3300 15930 2160 3132 6677 12070 19230 4302 6031 6838 22510 8005 34640 1926 5710 7701 6172 5311 8098 2951 9751 11770 4017 5589 17260 16640 7267 29390 8201 4746 21770 9059 9468 14300 8787 13820 13090 10580 32100 9107 5757 9003 4413 10480 2506 19990 6269 5882 4856 19260 6150 5326 6662 7641 1573 1826 22180 32690 5374 5109 23400 4624 6719 39910 14570 14740 14100 5817 4698 5537 6888 14670 1611 4679 6871 4438 5401 4509 5547 7586 4967 8447 10910 13710 14530 22030 7192 7649 16670 8379 5083 5710 19810 14880 18810 4858 3641 21200 5387 15560 13180 10530 17140 5115 5372 2877 10660 9815 5126 2862 11060 6137 17460 7901 4143 961 28270 15910 5603 4799 4838 23020 24670 24420 21420 17150 6888 7784 5751 7813 4655 8020 6135 8593 4234 3880 6096 13620 27450 16680 4795 8038 23850 6626 7895 24200 5857 5105 6223 10200 6459 5165 11950
2021-03-01 2835 5017 8343 8043 9289 9608 11340 3769 23100 29810 17180 4210 17350 7848 7584 8024 13160 21910 97380 6691 17220 9086 5850 24730 4488 24900 6888 45150 10570 6490 27770 6816 14080 29530 5817 24030 6099 9016 6798 9624 16560 13600 5515 13790 6917 9821 8180 8205 15310 11800 12470 3586 8848 19960 20840 5973 4773 4183 7566 10940 3110 5180 13730 2529 36300 22760 2649 7767 30410 8271 7022 10110 4069 19380 2752 21370 11270 7687 25870 30000 2874 3966 4718 8078 5905 4440 16960 9071 8497 6489 5536 2948 7211 29280 12280 5118 6773 4843 5118 5073 8036 3046 4574 13400 7825 6250 3783 10080 5450 21880 7187 11670 4106 12610 4881 20550 7721 7387 20080 4201 8414 6167 6870 26530 6731 8048 4834 25490 5773 5519 24000 7474 7493 7217 6681 14620 8707 5802 7296 17630 11810 31370 17030 23700 9233 57510 34530 4869 21360 6246 6598 47800 19270 12540 3734 2670 50440 7763 25840 2460 3310 15970 2169 3138 6690 12110 19270 4311 6049 6875 22550 8024 34670 1929 5724 7725 6184 5330 8119 2957 9773 11810 4034 5633 17320 16700 7286 29460 8226 4760 21820 9076 9488 14360 8801 13860 13130 10600 32140 9136 5779 9020 4425 10500 2514 20050 6274 5899 4863 19330 6173 5335 6689 7654 1582 1832 22240 32820 5388 5133 23450 4637 6722 40010 14640 14770 14130 5831 4707 5549 6928 14700 1614 4704 6893 4449 5413 4513 5551 7605 4980 8471 10940 13760 14560 22050 7206 7658 16730 8403 5097 5724 19900 14930 18860 4872 3653 21280 5397 15590 13190 10550 17210 5136 5379 2884 10710 9853 5134 2868 11060 6149 17490 7910 4161 962 28310 15950 5609 4807 4846 23090 24760 24450 21480 17200 6907 7807 5762 7822 4678 8040 6153 8616 4248 3886 6100 13640 27540 16750 4805 8059 23920 6643 7910 24270 5875 5132 6248 10230 6478 5189 11980

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-23 to 2021-03-01

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-02-22 2801 4777 8185 7767 8943 9513 11137 3719 22809 29372 16754 4087 17216 7779 7346 7943 12909 21728 95408 6505 17032 8797 5588 24034 4369 24506 6766 44095 10476 6252 27361 6744 13910 29283 5747 23771 5946 8919 6613 9476 16199 13227 5336 13605 6724 9749 8047 8112 14991 11473 12340 3584 8752 19566 20462 5781 4672 4078 7329 10773 2973 4967 13588 2474 35618 22229 2639 7511 30030 8066 6832 9999 3950 18992 2656 20822 11128 7614 25234 29518 2817 3879 4674 7944 5815 4287 16571 8910 8344 6438 5408 2918 7087 29101 12148 5045 6542 4779 4965 4842 7905 2975 4479 13039 7588 6186 3670 9989 5325 21653 7087 11495 3998 12460 4734 20242 7677 7235 19771 4125 8264 6072 6753 26266 6558 7968 4645 25070 5600 5455 23615 7160 7378 7057 6628 14520 8599 5527 7093 17246 11699 30612 16885 23503 8983 56676 33518 4754 21150 6169 6496 46977 18684 12418 3678 2583 49531 7472 25514 2417 3221 15609 2098 3101 6577 11687 18934 4226 5855 6613 22193 7903 34392 1903 5655 7577 6085 5183 7941 2908 9605 11529 3923 5437 16982 16318 7104 28918 7929 4657 21446 8955 9302 13846 8658 13625 12758 10427 31823 8802 5619 8885 4329 10348 2446 19644 6201 5760 4810 18801 5971 5257 6458 7533 1509 1779 21575 32092 5270 4968 23002 4523 6690 39257 14249 14480 13763 5736 4608 5446 6726 14442 1581 4509 6752 4351 5315 4483 5520 7484 4931 8295 10702 13421 14270 21857 7090 7589 16291 8219 4957 5598 19362 14579 18500 4717 3530 20747 5315 15395 12989 10413 16803 4973 5317 2849 10416 9525 5072 2806 11025 6028 17360 7829 4004 951 27976 15533 5495 4713 4795 22469 24223 24203 21248 16898 6741 7601 5657 7734 4518 7853 6025 8421 4159 3831 6065 13499 27041 16161 4707 7956 23567 6523 7792 23640 5739 5011 6029 10036 6356 5088 11783
2021-02-23 2805 4798 8204 7791 8981 9524 11160 3726 22850 29410 16820 4097 17230 7796 7377 7952 12930 21750 95680 6529 17070 8822 5608 24120 4388 24570 6776 44250 10490 6274 27400 6756 13930 29340 5760 23800 5962 8926 6642 9486 16260 13280 5348 13620 6741 9753 8066 8123 15030 11520 12350 3589 8767 19630 20520 5807 4679 4086 7350 10790 2986 4998 13600 2481 35710 22300 2642 7533 30060 8081 6857 10010 3962 19040 2664 20900 11160 7624 25300 29570 2823 3891 4686 7956 5826 4307 16620 8941 8362 6443 5428 2922 7099 29130 12160 5053 6579 4790 4981 4878 7914 2982 4492 13070 7622 6190 3682 10000 5336 21670 7096 11510 4011 12480 4756 20270 7690 7256 19800 4131 8286 6082 6768 26290 6588 7978 4659 25120 5624 5464 23650 7187 7392 7074 6639 14540 8611 5555 7116 17310 11710 30720 16920 23540 9013 56840 33640 4762 21170 6190 6511 47100 18750 12430 3683 2598 49660 7507 25550 2424 3231 15640 2105 3106 6591 11740 18980 4234 5872 6641 22240 7918 34430 1905 5669 7603 6094 5206 7962 2915 9620 11570 3945 5472 17020 16370 7117 29010 7958 4668 21500 8971 9320 13960 8673 13660 12800 10450 31860 8831 5639 8902 4341 10360 2453 19690 6209 5772 4814 18870 5993 5264 6487 7543 1515 1786 21630 32190 5280 4988 23040 4535 6697 39350 14310 14510 13800 5743 4616 5456 6756 14470 1583 4533 6779 4362 5327 4490 5533 7508 4939 8309 10730 13460 14290 21870 7103 7599 16340 8245 4969 5609 19450 14630 18540 4732 3542 20810 5327 15420 13010 10450 16870 5003 5322 2853 10460 9549 5083 2811 11040 6039 17380 7837 4017 951 28000 15580 5504 4722 4807 22550 24320 24230 21290 16940 6762 7611 5662 7741 4541 7870 6037 8441 4176 3836 6077 13510 27110 16220 4715 7970 23620 6539 7806 23710 5763 5025 6050 10070 6371 5105 11800
2021-02-24 2810 4814 8218 7825 9017 9535 11190 3732 22880 29470 16880 4112 17240 7815 7409 7960 12970 21770 95900 6554 17100 8848 5633 24220 4403 24620 6787 44410 10510 6299 27430 6767 13940 29400 5765 23820 5981 8932 6668 9493 16320 13340 5361 13630 6766 9760 8084 8133 15060 11570 12360 3595 8778 19690 20560 5831 4691 4098 7377 10800 3005 5028 13640 2489 35800 22360 2647 7561 30090 8093 6887 10020 3980 19090 2676 20980 11200 7630 25370 29630 2829 3902 4699 7972 5833 4329 16680 8974 8377 6448 5448 2925 7114 29150 12160 5059 6606 4801 5003 4912 7923 2996 4504 13100 7653 6196 3692 10010 5347 21690 7106 11530 4025 12500 4778 20300 7704 7277 19820 4139 8302 6091 6779 26320 6608 7985 4676 25160 5647 5471 23690 7219 7403 7085 6653 14550 8627 5590 7132 17360 11730 30840 16960 23570 9043 57020 33750 4768 21180 6208 6525 47200 18820 12440 3687 2607 49780 7546 25570 2430 3243 15670 2111 3110 6605 11800 19010 4245 5890 6676 22290 7932 34470 1909 5686 7625 6104 5225 7985 2920 9637 11610 3961 5502 17060 16420 7136 29090 7976 4677 21550 8994 9338 14030 8688 13690 12850 10460 31890 8862 5657 8915 4353 10370 2462 19750 6214 5784 4818 18940 6019 5272 6521 7552 1528 1793 21700 32290 5290 5010 23080 4549 6705 39450 14360 14540 13840 5751 4629 5466 6781 14510 1586 4552 6798 4374 5337 4495 5548 7525 4947 8325 10760 13500 14310 21890 7119 7610 16390 8270 4979 5626 19520 14680 18590 4753 3556 20880 5335 15440 13030 10470 16920 5023 5329 2861 10500 9578 5093 2818 11050 6052 17410 7840 4035 953 28020 15620 5509 4733 4813 22650 24390 24250 21320 16970 6783 7621 5671 7757 4563 7889 6062 8465 4190 3841 6091 13530 27160 16290 4724 7982 23660 6556 7818 23760 5783 5037 6074 10100 6383 5119 11820
2021-02-25 2813 4830 8230 7856 9055 9545 11210 3738 22920 29500 16940 4124 17250 7831 7438 7975 13000 21790 96100 6578 17130 8873 5653 24310 4417 24660 6795 44570 10530 6323 27460 6777 13960 29450 5771 23850 5998 8937 6690 9506 16370 13390 5373 13650 6786 9766 8094 8145 15090 11610 12370 3600 8788 19730 20600 5853 4702 4108 7404 10820 3022 5059 13660 2495 35900 22430 2651 7586 30120 8103 6911 10030 3996 19150 2686 21060 11230 7637 25440 29670 2835 3911 4711 7987 5838 4351 16730 9008 8391 6457 5467 2927 7127 29170 12170 5067 6637 4812 5020 4941 7935 3003 4516 13130 7683 6200 3705 10010 5360 21710 7114 11550 4037 12520 4797 20320 7716 7297 19850 4147 8320 6097 6791 26340 6630 7991 4692 25210 5671 5479 23720 7248 7413 7106 6664 14560 8638 5621 7152 17410 11740 30950 16990 23610 9063 57230 33880 4776 21200 6225 6541 47300 18880 12460 3691 2625 49890 7581 25600 2436 3255 15700 2117 3114 6619 11850 19040 4254 5910 6712 22330 7945 34500 1912 5703 7649 6111 5244 8007 2926 9663 11650 3977 5529 17110 16470 7153 29170 8003 4686 21590 9013 9356 14090 8703 13720 12900 10480 31910 8891 5676 8928 4365 10390 2470 19800 6222 5796 4826 19010 6043 5278 6550 7560 1538 1800 21770 32370 5298 5030 23130 4562 6711 39540 14410 14570 13880 5762 4641 5477 6807 14550 1588 4573 6820 4385 5348 4501 5559 7546 4956 8347 10790 13540 14330 21910 7134 7621 16440 8293 4990 5641 19600 14730 18630 4766 3573 20930 5343 15450 13040 10500 16980 5051 5335 2867 10530 9605 5105 2825 11060 6063 17430 7843 4051 954 28040 15650 5514 4742 4820 22730 24450 24280 21330 17000 6802 7629 5679 7768 4585 7903 6080 8487 4204 3844 6106 13550 27230 16360 4731 7993 23710 6578 7827 23820 5802 5045 6098 10130 6394 5138 11840
2021-02-26 2817 4847 8245 7880 9086 9555 11230 3744 22960 29540 17000 4133 17260 7847 7466 7987 13030 21800 96330 6602 17160 8895 5675 24390 4433 24710 6806 44710 10550 6344 27490 6787 13980 29510 5778 23870 6011 8942 6709 9516 16420 13430 5385 13660 6811 9772 8103 8157 15120 11650 12380 3607 8798 19780 20650 5875 4714 4117 7425 10830 3037 5089 13690 2501 35980 22490 2655 7609 30150 8112 6932 10040 4009 19210 2695 21120 11260 7644 25490 29730 2842 3921 4721 8000 5843 4372 16780 9035 8407 6465 5482 2930 7138 29190 12180 5072 6667 4823 5036 4971 7941 3011 4528 13160 7711 6203 3716 10020 5371 21720 7123 11560 4048 12540 4814 20340 7728 7315 19870 4154 8338 6104 6803 26360 6653 7996 4707 25250 5693 5483 23760 7270 7423 7124 6674 14570 8649 5651 7175 17450 11760 31050 17020 23630 9085 57380 33990 4783 21210 6241 6554 47380 18940 12470 3696 2635 50010 7617 25620 2442 3264 15720 2123 3118 6634 11890 19080 4262 5925 6739 22370 7959 34540 1914 5715 7675 6120 5262 8028 2933 9677 11680 3994 5554 17140 16500 7169 29240 8033 4696 21640 9029 9373 14140 8716 13750 12940 10490 31940 8918 5695 8940 4376 10410 2478 19840 6231 5807 4830 19090 6065 5284 6578 7569 1547 1806 21830 32460 5305 5047 23160 4575 6718 39640 14460 14600 13920 5769 4651 5484 6829 14580 1590 4594 6839 4395 5359 4507 5571 7568 4966 8364 10820 13580 14350 21930 7147 7632 16490 8314 4999 5656 19660 14770 18670 4780 3587 20990 5351 15470 13060 10530 17030 5066 5341 2873 10570 9630 5118 2832 11070 6074 17460 7846 4067 956 28060 15680 5521 4750 4831 22820 24520 24300 21350 17040 6820 7636 5685 7776 4605 7918 6096 8506 4218 3848 6117 13570 27280 16430 4738 8004 23750 6595 7837 23870 5817 5053 6122 10160 6405 5152 11860
2021-02-27 2820 4861 8258 7908 9112 9563 11250 3750 22980 29570 17050 4141 17270 7861 7493 7999 13050 21820 96540 6624 17180 8916 5689 24470 4449 24760 6817 44850 10570 6364 27520 6795 13990 29560 5790 23890 6021 8948 6731 9529 16470 13480 5396 13670 6833 9780 8112 8167 15150 11680 12400 3611 8808 19820 20690 5894 4724 4125 7441 10850 3051 5118 13710 2507 36060 22550 2658 7633 30190 8121 6953 10050 4022 19260 2703 21170 11290 7652 25560 29780 2848 3928 4728 8012 5848 4384 16810 9060 8420 6471 5495 2933 7150 29210 12180 5078 6690 4833 5053 4990 7951 3019 4540 13180 7733 6209 3724 10030 5383 21740 7130 11580 4058 12560 4831 20370 7739 7329 19900 4160 8355 6110 6815 26390 6663 8003 4721 25290 5714 5487 23800 7299 7436 7132 6683 14580 8662 5679 7191 17500 11770 31140 17050 23660 9102 57520 34080 4790 21220 6256 6567 47450 19000 12480 3702 2642 50110 7643 25640 2448 3273 15750 2129 3122 6646 11940 19120 4270 5944 6759 22410 7972 34570 1917 5726 7698 6128 5280 8048 2939 9701 11720 4012 5575 17190 16540 7185 29310 8057 4706 21690 9041 9385 14190 8729 13780 12970 10500 31970 8942 5714 8949 4387 10420 2485 19880 6237 5818 4833 19150 6087 5289 6606 7577 1555 1814 21890 32520 5310 5063 23200 4587 6725 39730 14510 14640 13960 5783 4660 5492 6849 14610 1592 4613 6851 4403 5371 4512 5580 7586 4976 8383 10840 13630 14360 21950 7160 7642 16520 8333 5007 5671 19720 14810 18700 4790 3599 21050 5355 15490 13070 10550 17080 5085 5347 2879 10610 9654 5129 2840 11080 6084 17480 7850 4079 957 28080 15720 5526 4756 4837 22870 24580 24310 21370 17060 6836 7642 5697 7787 4624 7931 6106 8523 4233 3851 6125 13580 27320 16490 4743 8016 23770 6608 7848 23920 5831 5064 6143 10180 6417 5170 11880
2021-02-28 2823 4875 8272 7928 9141 9568 11270 3756 23000 29600 17110 4150 17280 7874 7519 8010 13080 21830 96730 6647 17200 8935 5703 24540 4465 24800 6827 44980 10580 6385 27560 6805 14010 29610 5795 23910 6029 8953 6752 9540 16520 13520 5406 13690 6856 9786 8118 8176 15180 11720 12410 3616 8817 19850 20730 5915 4733 4133 7458 10860 3065 5146 13730 2512 36130 22600 2662 7649 30220 8130 6974 10060 4034 19300 2711 21220 11310 7659 25620 29810 2855 3935 4733 8023 5852 4399 16850 9089 8433 6477 5505 2936 7161 29220 12190 5082 6713 4844 5064 5010 7960 3025 4550 13220 7759 6212 3733 10040 5391 21750 7138 11600 4068 12580 4846 20390 7750 7343 19920 4168 8373 6117 6827 26410 6675 8012 4734 25330 5736 5491 23830 7321 7446 7142 6692 14590 8671 5707 7203 17540 11790 31230 17080 23670 9115 57640 34160 4797 21230 6271 6581 47540 19050 12490 3706 2653 50220 7673 25660 2455 3283 15780 2135 3126 6657 11980 19150 4278 5961 6783 22450 7985 34590 1920 5735 7721 6137 5298 8068 2941 9719 11750 4029 5600 17230 16580 7200 29380 8084 4716 21730 9049 9397 14230 8740 13800 13020 10510 32000 8971 5734 8957 4398 10420 2493 19910 6244 5829 4838 19210 6109 5294 6631 7587 1564 1819 21940 32560 5315 5078 23250 4599 6731 39810 14550 14670 14000 5791 4669 5499 6869 14640 1594 4633 6866 4412 5377 4518 5588 7602 4984 8393 10870 13660 14380 21960 7173 7653 16560 8352 5016 5685 19780 14840 18740 4801 3607 21100 5362 15510 13080 10570 17130 5097 5352 2883 10640 9678 5140 2845 11090 6093 17500 7855 4088 958 28090 15730 5529 4762 4844 22940 24620 24330 21390 17090 6852 7649 5708 7792 4643 7944 6116 8538 4248 3854 6131 13590 27350 16540 4749 8027 23800 6620 7857 23940 5839 5071 6161 10210 6428 5188 11890
2021-03-01 2826 4893 8293 7955 9213 9579 11290 3762 23030 29630 17170 4159 17300 7888 7547 8019 13120 21850 96980 6669 17250 8956 5724 24660 4486 24850 6839 45140 10590 6406 27600 6815 14020 29670 5803 23930 6044 8959 6781 9555 16580 13580 5418 13700 6883 9793 8137 8187 15210 11770 12420 3620 8827 19920 20770 5940 4743 4141 7490 10880 3082 5177 13780 2517 36220 22660 2666 7664 30260 8139 7004 10070 4047 19350 2720 21310 11350 7667 25710 29870 2861 3945 4744 8036 5857 4418 16900 9131 8451 6486 5520 2939 7172 29250 12200 5089 6744 4854 5085 5046 7974 3034 4559 13250 7792 6217 3748 10050 5404 21770 7146 11610 4078 12600 4862 20410 7761 7363 19940 4175 8391 6127 6838 26430 6702 8022 4750 25370 5759 5500 23880 7350 7460 7153 6700 14600 8681 5735 7222 17590 11800 31340 17100 23690 9143 57830 34290 4804 21240 6289 6595 47640 19110 12500 3712 2669 50360 7718 25680 2461 3295 15800 2140 3131 6669 12040 19190 4286 5980 6835 22490 7998 34620 1922 5750 7747 6148 5316 8088 2945 9743 11790 4047 5636 17280 16630 7215 29450 8112 4726 21780 9066 9414 14290 8754 13830 13060 10530 32030 8999 5754 8967 4408 10440 2501 20000 6250 5840 4844 19290 6131 5300 6657 7596 1574 1826 22000 32660 5321 5100 23300 4611 6738 39910 14610 14710 14040 5805 4678 5506 6903 14670 1595 4653 6884 4422 5383 4524 5597 7624 4997 8418 10900 13710 14400 21970 7185 7663 16620 8372 5029 5699 19860 14890 18770 4812 3620 21170 5371 15520 13090 10600 17190 5117 5358 2891 10680 9702 5156 2852 11100 6103 17520 7858 4098 960 28110 15750 5531 4770 4848 23020 24690 24350 21420 17130 6871 7655 5719 7799 4665 7963 6140 8565 4263 3857 6139 13600 27410 16620 4756 8040 23840 6635 7866 23990 5861 5086 6181 10240 6446 5210 11910

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.