COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-01

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-01

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-2112-3112-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-01-1210-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2712-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2812-2112-2912-2212-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-212021-01-0112-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-3012-28
Peak daily increment 61 87 97 173 109 172 178 77 477 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 422 1251 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 189 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 283 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 188 72 246 25 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 589 271 95 74 53 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 448 120 220 59 201 57 398 175 103 339 101 109 135 120 477 100 156 47 448 57 115 450 138 84 133 236 275 148 71 100 297 197 360 312 429 107 379 287 104 444 71 113 731 272 200 90 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 720 23 50 159 105 50 108 59 124 122 41 55 275 158 124 225 90 44 125 126 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 174 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 34 26 163 451 42 82 404 65 130 243 209 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 96 78 108 80 67 102 114 245 294 455 131 151 220 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 105 322 189 181 125 55 108 46 140 321 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 557 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 228 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 64 61 64 70 64 83 70 68 65 68 139 64 68 63 49 61 64 69 62 64 64 57 53 59 106 63 70 123 69 64 64 78 64 63 66 70 65 69 61 61 64 118 70 65 66 83 64 70 70 56 69 62 65 69 70 58 70 70 60 65 64 63 62 69 69 61 63 64 64 70 66 70 70 58 48 138 64 84 65 64 67 62 67 70 119 65 121 64 62 63 70 66 69 66 77 68 54 70 68 64 73 63 56 64 65 70 64 69 70 64 70 64 69 70 70 70 69 64 64 69 69 78 64 77 63 70 62 69 63 67 66 70 59 63 64 69 63 63 66 124 70 125 64 62 61 64 63 70 64 64 92 64 64 69 70 56 61 57 69 117 62 70 70 70 69 66 69 65 63 62 57 117 63 83 64 127 65 70 117 70 61 118 70 56 64 70 59 62 70 64 63 64 64 60 54 62 58 62 70 54 55 69 63 70 64 63 78 60 78 135 61 64 64 66 34 63 62 62 57 70 64 62 67 64 61 66 64 70 69 70 63 65 66 56 69 112 67 70 71 57 63 64 69 70 77 63 65 70 57 66 121 69 63 70 120 70 68 69 64 70 84 66 63 61 68 61 56 64 70 68 70 70 79 68 61 70 69 63 69 65 70 124 63 64 73 66 70 70 69 70 64 66 71 78 63 84 69 64 64 62 62 69 69 63 64 69 64 59 63 61 70 61 61 63
Last total 2822 4860 8314 7870 9144 9561 11270 3749 22947 29586 17142 4128 17328 7863 7498 8011 13065 21826 96664 6620 17212 8914 5674 24421 4465 24712 6825 44920 10559 6325 27608 6773 14025 29599 5789 23871 6021 8960 6732 9569 16432 13435 5415 13693 6812 9789 8105 8152 15167 11693 12415 3619 8826 19853 20752 5856 4710 4115 7433 10919 3033 5089 13682 2493 36130 22548 2661 7669 30239 8185 6958 10064 4019 19276 2701 21199 11286 7687 25568 29848 2857 3929 4718 7995 5910 4356 16844 9082 8436 6474 5490 2937 7125 29223 12225 5079 6682 4824 5029 4997 7949 2998 4561 13207 7731 6233 3705 10064 5381 21783 7130 11608 4041 12577 4844 20349 7733 7329 19936 4159 8390 6124 6823 26395 6654 8024 4709 25314 5708 5526 23835 7310 7497 7140 6648 14582 8654 5610 7200 17638 11775 31162 17026 23642 9095 57651 34131 4781 21236 6252 6581 47489 18964 12467 3698 2652 50090 7610 25649 2455 3275 15732 2121 3131 6654 11871 19187 4271 5922 6744 22422 8010 34573 1920 5707 7757 6130 5267 8107 2932 9689 11736 3994 5607 17198 16558 7170 29358 8054 4737 21701 9049 9366 14187 8746 13761 12976 10516 31984 8918 5750 9015 4365 10433 2481 19950 6258 5834 4830 19183 6076 5291 6577 7579 1544 1792 21866 32550 5307 5046 23237 4568 6721 39815 14481 14620 13908 5794 4646 5519 6893 14602 1588 4682 6842 4386 5353 4524 5571 7612 4998 8390 10872 13626 14353 21970 7147 7633 16508 8316 5040 5683 19680 14842 18795 4806 3587 21033 5357 15517 13069 10601 17073 5068 5416 2874 10612 9630 5123 2821 11097 6084 17477 7879 4045 959 28088 15722 5535 4729 4864 22936 24534 24342 21402 17061 6850 7682 5692 7767 4594 7927 6106 1138 8530 4258 3858 6139 13596 27420 16403 4741 8017 23800 6584 7889 23869 5821 5103 6141 10193 6420 5191 11901
Last daily increment 5 10 25 15 36 7 15 3 20 20 65 1 17 15 17 8 25 14 170 21 15 18 8 53 12 19 9 127 10 16 26 4 14 40 7 11 12 2 16 17 34 30 10 13 7 9 6 8 26 40 6 7 6 39 48 13 4 3 12 18 10 15 12 3 64 30 8 8 26 19 26 7 12 24 5 58 16 9 40 41 8 18 8 6 11 8 45 23 13 4 8 1 7 15 6 3 15 4 4 18 6 5 10 21 16 10 3 11 4 20 6 14 5 8 21 8 7 12 27 8 20 6 7 10 11 2 11 22 18 4 24 26 16 10 4 7 7 12 15 56 14 69 15 16 12 140 85 4 9 13 4 51 33 2 2 14 55 19 14 9 11 13 5 4 5 29 31 4 8 15 25 18 21 1 8 35 9 10 30 3 12 23 6 20 34 38 12 63 21 5 25 6 3 44 9 8 30 12 23 19 18 3 11 8 3 50 9 14 2 79 15 3 12 6 3 2 53 65 8 11 38 4 2 74 31 8 17 7 4 5 32 28 1 34 13 5 7 2 11 18 18 7 28 20 12 20 9 4 30 8 18 10 38 31 45 12 10 46 5 12 18 20 38 21 3 3 22 16 6 2 10 7 12 1 7 1 13 24 7 4 7 73 45 21 18 23 27 4 7 2 9 12 10 3 20 9 5 10 10 53 51 5 6 35 7 21 30 20 11 10 14 4 16 23
Last week 19 60 101 85 157 43 110 18 119 171 329 35 90 68 109 54 122 74 999 86 149 98 71 312 79 155 43 655 60 54 176 24 87 260 27 76 58 33 89 82 184 170 67 65 70 34 44 32 129 184 65 27 53 230 235 59 30 27 75 92 47 105 81 10 429 243 21 74 159 100 111 53 58 215 36 285 120 58 264 238 29 37 40 42 62 52 221 133 73 25 60 10 32 97 67 28 108 32 47 111 38 18 67 136 118 39 26 58 39 110 40 88 33 88 91 81 43 83 124 30 100 34 61 92 71 44 45 193 90 22 171 124 91 53 16 54 49 62 90 331 55 431 107 110 81 764 493 21 70 68 53 375 217 42 16 55 453 103 114 32 48 94 17 22 41 160 201 23 53 107 196 91 156 9 42 143 38 63 139 12 69 173 57 140 174 196 47 322 86 63 192 69 49 237 72 96 169 77 131 98 97 39 25 69 29 243 43 62 14 301 77 25 96 35 24 10 235 330 31 64 176 40 24 454 177 111 118 50 27 58 137 128 6 133 65 30 26 33 41 92 56 76 137 167 70 89 44 32 179 79 60 71 245 177 237 68 49 241 37 85 62 150 202 76 30 21 143 82 43 11 58 42 98 39 28 7 93 154 27 14 54 390 238 114 125 125 88 60 26 23 55 59 67 6 85 77 25 50 70 312 192 31 45 182 45 77 175 70 74 87 120 52 89 92
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2710-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-2511-02 --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1111-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 163 98 55 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 29 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 42 52 59 152 86 541 254 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 44 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 65 24 71 76 118 183 125 31 127 177 46 90 47 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 137 38 31 65 41 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 10 54 28 19 61 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 56 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 7 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 19 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-02 to 2021-03-08

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-01 2822 4860 8314 7870 9144 9561 11270 3749 22947 29586 17142 4128 17328 7863 7498 8011 13065 21826 96664 6620 17212 8914 5674 24421 4465 24712 6825 44920 10559 6325 27608 6773 14025 29599 5789 23871 6021 8960 6732 9569 16432 13435 5415 13693 6812 9789 8105 8152 15167 11693 12415 3619 8826 19853 20752 5856 4710 4115 7433 10919 3033 5089 13682 2493 36130 22548 2661 7669 30239 8185 6958 10064 4019 19276 2701 21199 11286 7687 25568 29848 2857 3929 4718 7995 5910 4356 16844 9082 8436 6474 5490 2937 7125 29223 12225 5079 6682 4824 5029 4997 7949 2998 4561 13207 7731 6233 3705 10064 5381 21783 7130 11608 4041 12577 4844 20349 7733 7329 19936 4159 8390 6124 6823 26395 6654 8024 4709 25314 5708 5526 23835 7310 7497 7140 6648 14582 8654 5610 7200 17638 11775 31162 17026 23642 9095 57651 34131 4781 21236 6252 6581 47489 18964 12467 3698 2652 50090 7610 25649 2455 3275 15732 2121 3131 6654 11871 19187 4271 5922 6744 22422 8010 34573 1920 5707 7757 6130 5267 8107 2932 9689 11736 3994 5607 17198 16558 7170 29358 8054 4737 21701 9049 9366 14187 8746 13761 12976 10516 31984 8918 5750 9015 4365 10433 2481 19950 6258 5834 4830 19183 6076 5291 6577 7579 1544 1792 21866 32550 5307 5046 23237 4568 6721 39815 14481 14620 13908 5794 4646 5519 6893 14602 1588 4682 6842 4386 5353 4524 5571 7612 4998 8390 10872 13626 14353 21970 7147 7633 16508 8316 5040 5683 19680 14842 18795 4806 3587 21033 5357 15517 13069 10601 17073 5068 5416 2874 10612 9630 5123 2821 11097 6084 17477 7879 4045 959 28088 15722 5535 4729 4864 22936 24534 24342 21402 17061 6850 7682 5692 7767 4594 7927 6106 1138 8530 4258 3858 6139 13596 27420 16403 4741 8017 23800 6584 7889 23869 5821 5103 6141 10193 6420 5191 11901
2021-03-02 2826 4912 8368 7887 9253 9572 11310 3754 22970 29650 17220 4130 17370 7889 7559 8027 13110 21850 97030 6664 17310 8919 5689 24460 4497 24760 6828 45180 10570 6339 27710 6797 14070 29700 5826 23890 6035 8971 6788 9585 16470 13530 5429 13710 6833 9795 8111 8171 15200 11780 12440 3624 8841 19960 20860 5873 4749 4122 7443 10940 3052 5151 13760 2496 36210 22720 2664 7688 30290 8201 6993 10080 4030 19420 2708 21240 11380 7700 25610 29950 2861 3937 4724 8004 5920 4369 16940 9166 8477 6478 5533 2942 7133 29250 12240 5082 6747 4832 5068 5060 7967 3003 4573 13280 7788 6247 3718 10080 5420 21790 7133 11630 4044 12620 4859 20370 7745 7345 19950 4165 8409 6136 6837 26410 6705 8048 4746 25330 5726 5538 23930 7358 7518 7180 6660 14600 8666 5622 7245 17700 11790 31200 17080 23660 9108 57950 34340 4804 21250 6286 6618 47700 19000 12490 3705 2675 50150 7683 25680 2461 3288 15770 2124 3138 6691 11900 19230 4277 5930 6767 22460 8032 34600 1923 5715 7782 6162 5308 8128 2952 9739 11760 4009 5657 17280 16640 7174 29420 8074 4748 21740 9094 9378 14350 8774 13880 13060 10540 32020 8949 5770 9032 4373 10470 2487 20040 6281 5845 4842 19300 6093 5298 6596 7589 1550 1796 22020 32610 5315 5058 23330 4577 6728 39980 14520 14710 13930 5817 4648 5537 6932 14670 1589 4712 6863 4392 5361 4532 5589 7657 5021 8457 10900 13650 14370 21990 7158 7644 16590 8331 5057 5696 19720 14940 18840 4833 3595 21080 5367 15550 13090 10630 17100 5115 5424 2876 10710 9642 5162 2825 11120 6087 17500 7889 4054 960 28120 15800 5555 4733 4877 22980 24720 24350 21420 17150 6866 7699 5700 7773 4647 7954 6106 1139 8539 4273 3860 6175 13630 27450 16490 4757 8025 23890 6597 7901 23960 5837 5118 6159 10220 6455 5222 11920
2021-03-03 2835 4945 8413 7906 9327 9588 11330 3767 23010 29760 17290 4140 17390 7934 7596 8038 13160 21910 97280 6695 17380 8927 5729 24500 4512 24840 6838 45360 10590 6389 27760 6814 14100 29760 5842 23910 6065 8991 6822 9604 16500 13610 5447 13760 6854 9803 8118 8199 15240 11840 12470 3628 8878 20050 20940 5884 4775 4137 7452 10980 3090 5196 13800 2508 36330 22820 2671 7703 30400 8220 7030 10110 4056 19520 2726 21270 11470 7711 25640 30010 2870 3954 4732 8014 5933 4408 17020 9226 8501 6482 5558 2952 7159 29300 12260 5089 6784 4854 5099 5103 7980 3021 4594 13340 7824 6261 3724 10100 5448 21810 7141 11680 4053 12650 4889 20400 7774 7379 20010 4180 8443 6141 6864 26440 6733 8064 4768 25370 5767 5540 23990 7403 7536 7201 6672 14630 8684 5640 7283 17760 11820 31240 17110 23690 9123 58170 34490 4821 21290 6310 6637 47830 19040 12510 3719 2684 50210 7731 25730 2473 3303 15820 2134 3149 6713 11930 19300 4286 5939 6834 22520 8065 34650 1928 5723 7808 6186 5331 8151 2961 9772 11780 4042 5696 17340 16710 7190 29520 8081 4766 21840 9126 9418 14440 8799 13950 13120 10580 32080 8979 5807 9041 4397 10490 2502 20100 6297 5861 4848 19390 6135 5316 6647 7603 1571 1810 22130 32640 5328 5071 23410 4604 6748 40110 14560 14770 13950 5834 4655 5562 6958 14720 1594 4735 6911 4413 5386 4545 5618 7676 5039 8506 10940 13670 14420 22050 7177 7661 16650 8374 5069 5727 19740 15020 18910 4857 3605 21110 5384 15610 13100 10670 17120 5145 5441 2881 10780 9659 5186 2840 11140 6093 17550 7896 4088 963 28170 15850 5569 4753 4895 23010 24840 24370 21430 17210 6893 7715 5706 7791 4680 7970 6122 1139 8547 4294 3864 6194 13650 27480 16550 4788 8045 23950 6633 7914 24000 5871 5144 6202 10280 6478 5243 11960
2021-03-04 2841 4968 8446 7916 9384 9594 11360 3775 23050 29840 17360 4147 17410 7967 7628 8051 13180 21940 97480 6714 17440 8944 5757 24530 4529 24910 6845 45520 10600 6422 27800 6823 14120 29820 5855 23920 6087 9005 6847 9626 16520 13660 5461 13790 6869 9810 8118 8221 15280 11890 12490 3633 8903 20110 21000 5892 4798 4147 7458 11010 3119 5229 13830 2516 36440 22900 2676 7716 30470 8237 7057 10120 4075 19590 2739 21280 11510 7721 25660 30040 2876 3966 4737 8023 5944 4435 17070 9275 8524 6486 5578 2959 7176 29330 12280 5094 6813 4869 5116 5128 7991 3032 4611 13390 7858 6272 3729 10120 5463 21820 7147 11710 4059 12670 4912 20420 7793 7405 20040 4191 8469 6143 6883 26460 6758 8074 4788 25390 5796 5546 24030 7436 7555 7219 6680 14650 8697 5655 7306 17830 11850 31250 17140 23710 9129 58370 34610 4831 21310 6329 6652 47950 19070 12520 3728 2701 50240 7763 25760 2483 3314 15860 2140 3158 6728 11960 19360 4293 5944 6880 22580 8092 34690 1931 5730 7833 6200 5352 8172 2966 9796 11810 4066 5721 17390 16770 7200 29600 8088 4780 21900 9153 9444 14500 8820 14000 13170 10600 32120 9002 5835 9045 4413 10510 2513 20160 6311 5874 4855 19450 6165 5328 6684 7614 1585 1820 22220 32660 5338 5075 23460 4622 6762 40210 14570 14810 13980 5847 4660 5582 6976 14750 1596 4755 6946 4427 5403 4555 5639 7699 5053 8546 10970 13690 14450 22080 7191 7673 16690 8403 5083 5750 19760 15070 18970 4870 3613 21140 5396 15650 13110 10710 17140 5166 5451 2884 10810 9674 5202 2850 11150 6097 17580 7904 4110 964 28200 15900 5576 4765 4910 23040 24920 24380 21440 17250 6914 7728 5706 7801 4698 7982 6132 1140 8552 4311 3867 6213 13670 27510 16600 4809 8058 23990 6657 7927 24040 5896 5154 6234 10320 6495 5265 11990
2021-03-05 2846 4983 8471 7921 9430 9596 11370 3782 23070 29900 17400 4151 17430 7994 7646 8066 13200 21970 97680 6734 17480 8960 5779 24540 4546 24960 6850 45640 10620 6446 27840 6829 14140 29870 5864 23930 6105 9015 6862 9639 16540 13700 5474 13820 6885 9815 8119 8238 15310 11920 12500 3637 8924 20150 21050 5905 4817 4155 7463 11030 3142 5250 13850 2522 36530 22960 2681 7725 30530 8253 7081 10140 4090 19650 2748 21290 11550 7731 25680 30070 2880 3976 4742 8030 5955 4456 17120 9318 8544 6490 5595 2965 7189 29350 12290 5097 6837 4881 5132 5151 7999 3041 4625 13420 7885 6279 3733 10130 5475 21830 7151 11730 4064 12700 4930 20430 7809 7425 20070 4199 8491 6147 6898 26480 6777 8079 4802 25410 5821 5550 24060 7457 7572 7232 6685 14670 8708 5668 7326 17880 11860 31270 17160 23720 9131 58510 34720 4839 21330 6345 6662 48030 19100 12530 3735 2708 50290 7791 25790 2490 3321 15900 2145 3165 6741 11980 19410 4299 5953 6916 22620 8116 34720 1934 5736 7858 6209 5363 8192 2974 9810 11830 4086 5748 17420 16800 7206 29670 8096 4793 21960 9164 9464 14540 8832 14050 13200 10620 32160 9024 5860 9057 4425 10530 2522 20200 6321 5886 4861 19510 6189 5338 6712 7623 1595 1827 22300 32700 5345 5080 23480 4635 6772 40310 14580 14840 13990 5856 4662 5598 7000 14790 1598 4774 6974 4438 5416 4564 5656 7718 5065 8578 11000 13700 14480 22110 7203 7684 16730 8425 5092 5767 19770 15110 19020 4884 3621 21160 5405 15680 13130 10740 17140 5179 5460 2886 10850 9686 5216 2857 11160 6101 17610 7910 4127 965 28230 15930 5584 4773 4922 23080 24970 24390 21440 17280 6933 7741 5710 7808 4711 7996 6143 1140 8555 4328 3870 6225 13690 27510 16660 4827 8068 24030 6675 7940 24070 5916 5163 6258 10360 6508 5281 12010
2021-03-06 2851 4995 8493 7925 9486 9596 11380 3788 23100 29960 17450 4155 17450 8019 7669 8073 13220 21990 97830 6750 17510 8980 5799 24560 4558 25010 6854 45740 10630 6467 27870 6833 14160 29910 5872 23940 6121 9024 6879 9646 16570 13730 5486 13840 6899 9822 8124 8254 15340 11950 12520 3641 8943 20180 21070 5919 4827 4162 7473 11060 3164 5274 13860 2527 36610 23000 2685 7734 30590 8268 7096 10150 4104 19690 2757 21300 11580 7741 25680 30090 2884 3986 4749 8038 5965 4475 17150 9358 8560 6495 5609 2970 7200 29380 12300 5100 6853 4892 5143 5168 8006 3048 4638 13440 7905 6286 3737 10140 5485 21840 7155 11760 4068 12720 4948 20450 7823 7445 20100 4206 8513 6147 6913 26490 6783 8083 4814 25430 5844 5551 24100 7480 7585 7245 6690 14680 8718 5679 7342 17910 11880 31290 17180 23740 9139 58620 34790 4845 21350 6356 6673 48110 19140 12540 3741 2717 50310 7812 25820 2497 3328 15930 2150 3172 6749 12010 19450 4305 5958 6949 22660 8139 34750 1937 5742 7883 6218 5375 8213 2978 9828 11850 4105 5770 17450 16830 7212 29730 8101 4805 22010 9174 9482 14590 8840 14090 13230 10650 32190 9054 5883 9065 4436 10530 2530 20230 6330 5897 4864 19550 6212 5346 6738 7632 1604 1833 22360 32720 5353 5084 23500 4648 6781 40370 14590 14870 14010 5863 4665 5613 7017 14830 1600 4787 7000 4447 5428 4572 5672 7736 5072 8607 11030 13710 14500 22140 7214 7693 16750 8446 5100 5784 19770 15140 19070 4889 3628 21180 5414 15710 13130 10770 17150 5191 5468 2889 10880 9697 5228 2864 11180 6105 17640 7915 4142 965 28260 15970 5589 4780 4934 23110 25040 24400 21450 17330 6951 7753 5713 7814 4722 8007 6151 1141 8564 4344 3872 6235 13710 27520 16720 4843 8078 24050 6693 7953 24120 5936 5171 6281 10390 6521 5295 12030
2021-03-07 2855 5005 8512 7925 9519 9596 11390 3794 23120 30020 17480 4157 17460 8042 7678 8079 13230 22010 97940 6757 17540 8985 5816 24560 4570 25050 6858 45820 10640 6485 27900 6836 14170 29930 5874 23950 6136 9032 6885 9653 16590 13740 5498 13860 6906 9829 8124 8269 15370 11970 12530 3645 8959 20200 21100 5923 4839 4168 7473 11080 3183 5283 13870 2531 36690 23030 2688 7738 30640 8283 7103 10160 4116 19720 2764 21300 11600 7751 25680 30110 2888 3995 4753 8044 5975 4490 17170 9384 8570 6495 5617 2974 7209 29400 12300 5102 6865 4901 5145 5177 8013 3054 4650 13470 7920 6293 3737 10160 5488 21850 7158 11780 4071 12720 4963 20460 7835 7462 20120 4213 8533 6147 6925 26500 6786 8090 4820 25440 5864 5552 24120 7486 7595 7250 6694 14700 8728 5690 7350 17950 11900 31290 17190 23750 9139 58700 34840 4846 21360 6363 6680 48170 19160 12550 3746 2725 50310 7820 25840 2504 3334 15960 2154 3178 6751 12030 19490 4310 5960 6975 22700 8160 34770 1939 5743 7907 6226 5381 8233 2978 9840 11880 4121 5788 17480 16840 7216 29800 8101 4817 22050 9187 9496 14610 8849 14120 13250 10660 32210 9064 5903 9067 4445 10540 2536 20260 6336 5907 4866 19590 6231 5353 6761 7640 1611 1838 22400 32720 5360 5084 23520 4658 6788 40430 14590 14890 14020 5869 4667 5627 7038 14860 1601 4805 7023 4455 5437 4579 5686 7749 5076 8622 11050 13710 14520 22160 7224 7702 16770 8464 5106 5798 19770 15160 19120 4894 3636 21190 5422 15740 13130 10800 17150 5196 5474 2891 10890 9708 5230 2868 11190 6108 17660 7921 4154 966 28280 15980 5592 4785 4945 23140 25080 24410 21450 17350 6967 7765 5713 7819 4730 8016 6154 1142 8564 4359 3874 6239 13720 27520 16740 4857 8086 24070 6707 7966 24140 5953 5174 6301 10420 6521 5305 12050
2021-03-08 2858 5019 8535 7940 9554 9604 11410 3799 23140 30070 17550 4160 17480 8064 7701 8086 13260 22030 98130 6779 17570 8999 5832 24610 4585 25100 6861 45950 10650 6500 27930 6844 14180 29980 5882 23960 6149 9039 6907 9670 16620 13780 5509 13880 6915 9836 8129 8283 15390 12020 12550 3648 8974 20240 21150 5937 4844 4174 7486 11100 3201 5303 13890 2535 36770 23080 2692 7746 30680 8299 7132 10180 4128 19760 2771 21360 11620 7761 25730 30160 2891 4003 4763 8051 5985 4505 17210 9405 8585 6498 5626 2978 7217 29410 12310 5104 6886 4910 5153 5202 8021 3059 4662 13490 7945 6302 3737 10170 5495 21860 7160 11800 4073 12730 4978 20480 7846 7478 20140 4218 8552 6151 6937 26510 6806 8095 4832 25460 5883 5558 24150 7512 7608 7264 6698 14710 8737 5700 7369 18010 11910 31360 17220 23760 9150 58840 34940 4853 21380 6381 6688 48230 19190 12550 3751 2739 50360 7850 25870 2510 3345 15990 2158 3184 6758 12060 19530 4315 5969 7000 22730 8181 34800 1941 5752 7932 6236 5397 8253 2981 9857 11900 4136 5816 17520 16880 7219 29860 8122 4828 22090 9198 9508 14660 8860 14130 13280 10680 32240 9081 5923 9072 4453 10550 2543 20310 6342 5917 4869 19660 6250 5360 6781 7648 1618 1842 22450 32770 5366 5098 23560 4667 6794 40510 14610 14910 14040 5879 4668 5641 7072 14880 1602 4833 7045 4462 5446 4585 5699 7770 5093 8633 11080 13730 14540 22180 7234 7711 16810 8480 5124 5812 19820 15200 19160 4905 3643 21250 5430 15760 13150 10830 17190 5217 5480 2892 10920 9718 5241 2873 11200 6111 17680 7924 4165 967 28300 16010 5599 4789 4956 23200 25140 24420 21470 17380 6983 7776 5718 7824 4744 8029 6165 1142 8583 4374 3876 6250 13730 27570 16790 4871 8093 24120 6720 7978 24170 5969 5190 6319 10440 6531 5324 12070

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-02 to 2021-03-08

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-01 2822 4860 8314 7870 9144 9561 11270 3749 22947 29586 17142 4128 17328 7863 7498 8011 13065 21826 96664 6620 17212 8914 5674 24421 4465 24712 6825 44920 10559 6325 27608 6773 14025 29599 5789 23871 6021 8960 6732 9569 16432 13435 5415 13693 6812 9789 8105 8152 15167 11693 12415 3619 8826 19853 20752 5856 4710 4115 7433 10919 3033 5089 13682 2493 36130 22548 2661 7669 30239 8185 6958 10064 4019 19276 2701 21199 11286 7687 25568 29848 2857 3929 4718 7995 5910 4356 16844 9082 8436 6474 5490 2937 7125 29223 12225 5079 6682 4824 5029 4997 7949 2998 4561 13207 7731 6233 3705 10064 5381 21783 7130 11608 4041 12577 4844 20349 7733 7329 19936 4159 8390 6124 6823 26395 6654 8024 4709 25314 5708 5526 23835 7310 7497 7140 6648 14582 8654 5610 7200 17638 11775 31162 17026 23642 9095 57651 34131 4781 21236 6252 6581 47489 18964 12467 3698 2652 50090 7610 25649 2455 3275 15732 2121 3131 6654 11871 19187 4271 5922 6744 22422 8010 34573 1920 5707 7757 6130 5267 8107 2932 9689 11736 3994 5607 17198 16558 7170 29358 8054 4737 21701 9049 9366 14187 8746 13761 12976 10516 31984 8918 5750 9015 4365 10433 2481 19950 6258 5834 4830 19183 6076 5291 6577 7579 1544 1792 21866 32550 5307 5046 23237 4568 6721 39815 14481 14620 13908 5794 4646 5519 6893 14602 1588 4682 6842 4386 5353 4524 5571 7612 4998 8390 10872 13626 14353 21970 7147 7633 16508 8316 5040 5683 19680 14842 18795 4806 3587 21033 5357 15517 13069 10601 17073 5068 5416 2874 10612 9630 5123 2821 11097 6084 17477 7879 4045 959 28088 15722 5535 4729 4864 22936 24534 24342 21402 17061 6850 7682 5692 7767 4594 7927 6106 1138 8530 4258 3858 6139 13596 27420 16403 4741 8017 23800 6584 7889 23869 5821 5103 6141 10193 6420 5191 11901
2021-03-02 2826 4876 8333 7882 9177 9567 11290 3754 22970 29620 17200 4131 17340 7877 7524 8019 13090 21840 96840 6643 17240 8927 5689 24460 4480 24740 6831 45050 10570 6337 27650 6782 14040 29640 5801 23890 6033 8965 6754 9578 16460 13470 5425 13710 6820 9792 8114 8160 15190 11730 12430 3623 8836 19900 20800 5867 4716 4121 7446 10940 3043 5109 13700 2497 36190 22600 2666 7684 30270 8199 6972 10070 4030 19330 2708 21250 11310 7697 25610 29910 2863 3940 4723 8001 5919 4364 16890 9108 8451 6480 5506 2939 7133 29240 12240 5084 6711 4832 5041 5029 7956 3001 4573 13230 7754 6240 3710 10080 5391 21800 7137 11620 4048 12590 4861 20360 7742 7340 19960 4164 8409 6132 6835 26410 6674 8031 4721 25350 5727 5531 23870 7331 7513 7157 6652 14590 8662 5623 7217 17690 11790 31220 17050 23670 9106 57810 34230 4789 21250 6265 6597 47560 19000 12470 3701 2665 50150 7633 25670 2462 3282 15750 2125 3135 6666 11890 19230 4275 5929 6765 22460 8025 34600 1922 5712 7786 6139 5283 8129 2941 9700 11760 4005 5632 17230 16600 7180 29420 8075 4747 21740 9067 9376 14280 8759 13790 13010 10530 32010 8933 5771 9020 4373 10450 2487 20000 6268 5845 4834 19250 6094 5295 6596 7586 1549 1796 21910 32600 5313 5055 23270 4576 6727 39890 14510 14640 13920 5801 4652 5528 6920 14630 1590 4713 6860 4392 5362 4529 5578 7635 5010 8401 10900 13650 14370 21990 7154 7639 16540 8329 5054 5695 19720 14880 18840 4822 3595 21070 5363 15540 13080 10630 17110 5090 5421 2876 10650 9644 5134 2824 11110 6092 17500 7884 4055 960 28110 15740 5543 4734 4874 23000 24590 24360 21420 17080 6869 7689 5696 7769 4612 7938 6111 1140 8542 4272 3862 6155 13610 27460 16440 4747 8025 23830 6594 7902 23890 5836 5112 6156 10220 6430 5204 11920
2021-03-03 2830 4894 8354 7906 9207 9579 11310 3761 22990 29670 17260 4140 17360 7892 7550 8026 13110 21870 97030 6667 17270 8941 5712 24530 4495 24770 6841 45200 10580 6357 27680 6794 14060 29690 5809 23910 6048 8973 6779 9590 16510 13520 5436 13730 6837 9798 8124 8170 15220 11770 12440 3627 8848 19950 20860 5882 4723 4129 7460 10970 3055 5139 13720 2502 36270 22670 2670 7699 30320 8212 6996 10090 4047 19380 2717 21310 11350 7707 25670 29970 2872 3951 4728 8009 5929 4382 16940 9137 8464 6484 5520 2943 7145 29260 12250 5090 6738 4844 5059 5061 7962 3009 4586 13260 7781 6245 3718 10090 5407 21820 7143 11640 4057 12610 4879 20380 7755 7361 19990 4172 8432 6138 6849 26430 6694 8039 4733 25390 5752 5532 23910 7358 7526 7171 6656 14600 8670 5645 7237 17740 11800 31320 17070 23690 9125 57990 34340 4799 21260 6281 6613 47640 19050 12480 3708 2673 50250 7663 25700 2469 3292 15770 2130 3141 6681 11920 19270 4279 5937 6798 22500 8041 34630 1925 5719 7812 6149 5302 8150 2945 9716 11790 4026 5663 17270 16640 7191 29490 8090 4760 21790 9087 9395 14340 8775 13820 13050 10550 32050 8951 5797 9028 4386 10460 2496 20050 6277 5856 4838 19320 6118 5301 6623 7593 1557 1802 21970 32650 5320 5071 23310 4589 6735 40000 14550 14680 13940 5809 4659 5538 6941 14650 1593 4738 6879 4402 5372 4536 5591 7650 5022 8419 10930 13680 14390 22010 7165 7647 16580 8350 5064 5709 19780 14920 18890 4840 3601 21110 5371 15560 13090 10660 17160 5112 5427 2881 10690 9663 5148 2830 11120 6100 17520 7890 4071 962 28130 15770 5550 4742 4885 23050 24640 24380 21440 17110 6887 7697 5702 7778 4633 7948 6127 1140 8555 4290 3867 6166 13620 27510 16480 4754 8037 23880 6611 7914 23930 5853 5131 6182 10250 6444 5222 11940
2021-03-04 2834 4909 8371 7923 9233 9586 11330 3767 23010 29700 17320 4146 17370 7905 7575 8035 13130 21880 97220 6687 17310 8955 5730 24600 4511 24810 6848 45340 10600 6375 27710 6804 14070 29740 5816 23930 6059 8980 6800 9604 16540 13560 5446 13740 6851 9803 8129 8179 15240 11810 12450 3632 8857 20000 20900 5895 4731 4136 7472 10990 3066 5164 13730 2507 36340 22730 2674 7712 30350 8226 7017 10100 4060 19430 2726 21350 11370 7716 25720 30000 2879 3959 4733 8017 5938 4397 16970 9163 8477 6490 5534 2947 7154 29280 12260 5097 6762 4854 5072 5082 7970 3013 4598 13290 7808 6249 3728 10100 5417 21830 7149 11650 4064 12630 4894 20390 7766 7379 20010 4178 8454 6144 6861 26450 6715 8046 4746 25430 5773 5536 23950 7382 7541 7185 6660 14610 8678 5663 7253 17790 11810 31390 17090 23720 9138 58160 34440 4806 21270 6295 6628 47710 19090 12490 3713 2688 50330 7688 25720 2475 3301 15790 2135 3146 6693 11950 19320 4283 5946 6826 22540 8057 34660 1927 5725 7839 6158 5320 8170 2947 9732 11830 4044 5687 17300 16680 7199 29550 8106 4772 21840 9108 9408 14380 8789 13840 13090 10560 32080 8967 5821 9033 4395 10480 2503 20100 6286 5866 4844 19370 6140 5305 6645 7599 1564 1807 22020 32690 5326 5083 23340 4600 6742 40090 14590 14700 13960 5816 4664 5550 6958 14660 1595 4761 6900 4410 5382 4543 5601 7669 5034 8436 10950 13720 14410 22030 7175 7655 16610 8368 5076 5722 19830 14960 18930 4852 3612 21150 5380 15580 13100 10690 17210 5130 5432 2885 10720 9680 5160 2835 11130 6107 17550 7898 4083 963 28140 15800 5555 4747 4895 23110 24690 24400 21460 17140 6902 7705 5706 7786 4649 7955 6139 1141 8567 4306 3870 6179 13640 27560 16520 4760 8047 23910 6626 7922 23960 5868 5142 6201 10280 6457 5241 11960
2021-03-05 2838 4920 8384 7935 9251 9592 11350 3773 23030 29730 17370 4151 17390 7916 7595 8045 13150 21900 97390 6706 17330 8970 5747 24640 4527 24840 6856 45450 10610 6389 27730 6812 14090 29780 5822 23940 6068 8986 6817 9616 16580 13600 5456 13760 6865 9807 8135 8188 15260 11840 12460 3635 8866 20030 20940 5908 4737 4142 7480 11010 3075 5184 13750 2510 36420 22780 2678 7724 30390 8239 7037 10110 4071 19480 2733 21390 11400 7726 25760 30040 2886 3967 4737 8024 5948 4411 17010 9188 8490 6494 5547 2950 7162 29300 12270 5102 6785 4863 5084 5103 7975 3017 4612 13310 7831 6251 3735 10110 5427 21850 7154 11660 4071 12640 4908 20400 7776 7397 20030 4184 8474 6150 6873 26470 6733 8051 4756 25470 5793 5538 23980 7401 7555 7197 6662 14620 8684 5679 7270 17830 11820 31460 17110 23740 9147 58290 34530 4813 21290 6308 6641 47770 19120 12500 3717 2696 50430 7712 25740 2481 3308 15810 2139 3150 6705 11970 19360 4286 5955 6848 22580 8071 34690 1929 5731 7864 6165 5334 8190 2954 9742 11850 4060 5712 17330 16710 7207 29610 8123 4784 21880 9120 9419 14410 8800 13860 13120 10580 32110 8984 5843 9042 4404 10490 2510 20130 6293 5876 4849 19420 6159 5309 6665 7605 1569 1811 22070 32740 5330 5093 23370 4610 6748 40180 14620 14730 13980 5823 4669 5558 6981 14680 1597 4783 6915 4416 5389 4550 5610 7688 5043 8450 10980 13750 14420 22040 7184 7663 16650 8384 5085 5734 19880 14990 18970 4865 3621 21190 5387 15600 13120 10720 17240 5142 5437 2889 10750 9696 5172 2839 11140 6114 17570 7904 4093 964 28160 15820 5561 4751 4903 23180 24720 24420 21470 17160 6917 7713 5710 7790 4663 7963 6149 1142 8574 4322 3874 6191 13650 27590 16560 4766 8057 23940 6636 7933 23980 5881 5152 6218 10310 6467 5257 11980
2021-03-06 2841 4931 8394 7950 9277 9598 11360 3778 23050 29750 17430 4155 17400 7927 7618 8052 13170 21910 97550 6724 17350 8983 5759 24700 4541 24870 6863 45570 10610 6401 27760 6820 14100 29820 5830 23960 6075 8993 6836 9623 16620 13630 5466 13770 6879 9813 8139 8196 15280 11870 12470 3638 8875 20060 20980 5920 4742 4148 7488 11040 3083 5209 13760 2514 36480 22830 2681 7736 30420 8251 7054 10110 4082 19520 2739 21440 11420 7735 25810 30060 2892 3973 4743 8032 5958 4419 17040 9213 8504 6498 5561 2953 7169 29320 12280 5106 6803 4872 5095 5117 7979 3023 4623 13330 7853 6254 3743 10120 5438 21860 7158 11670 4078 12660 4921 20410 7787 7411 20040 4189 8494 6154 6883 26490 6743 8055 4765 25500 5812 5539 24020 7423 7567 7209 6665 14630 8690 5695 7285 17860 11830 31540 17120 23760 9161 58420 34610 4819 21300 6321 6655 47830 19150 12510 3722 2704 50510 7735 25760 2487 3316 15820 2142 3154 6716 11990 19400 4290 5964 6867 22610 8083 34710 1932 5737 7888 6171 5349 8211 2957 9758 11880 4076 5735 17360 16740 7214 29670 8137 4796 21920 9132 9430 14450 8809 13890 13150 10590 32130 9006 5864 9048 4412 10500 2517 20160 6302 5886 4851 19460 6178 5313 6685 7610 1574 1816 22110 32780 5333 5105 23390 4619 6753 40260 14650 14760 14000 5830 4673 5564 6999 14700 1598 4802 6926 4422 5397 4555 5616 7702 5052 8464 11000 13780 14430 22060 7192 7669 16680 8400 5093 5745 19920 15030 19000 4873 3626 21220 5393 15620 13120 10750 17280 5157 5441 2892 10780 9711 5182 2844 11150 6121 17590 7908 4103 965 28180 15850 5565 4755 4909 23230 24780 24440 21490 17190 6931 7722 5713 7794 4679 7971 6156 1142 8590 4338 3876 6200 13660 27610 16590 4771 8068 23960 6646 7941 24010 5892 5161 6234 10330 6480 5272 11990
2021-03-07 2844 4945 8407 7967 9293 9601 11380 3783 23070 29790 17480 4159 17420 7937 7639 8058 13190 21930 97710 6740 17380 8996 5773 24760 4557 24910 6872 45690 10620 6413 27780 6827 14120 29860 5836 23970 6082 8999 6854 9630 16660 13660 5474 13780 6894 9820 8143 8205 15310 11900 12480 3641 8884 20100 21020 5931 4749 4153 7494 11060 3092 5232 13770 2517 36550 22890 2684 7744 30450 8264 7071 10120 4091 19570 2745 21470 11450 7745 25860 30100 2898 3979 4746 8038 5968 4431 17070 9232 8515 6501 5573 2956 7176 29340 12290 5109 6822 4880 5107 5134 7983 3027 4633 13360 7873 6258 3751 10130 5449 21870 7162 11680 4084 12670 4933 20430 7796 7425 20060 4194 8513 6160 6894 26510 6753 8065 4776 25530 5831 5540 24060 7441 7578 7218 6667 14640 8697 5710 7295 17900 11840 31620 17140 23780 9174 58540 34680 4824 21310 6333 6667 47910 19190 12520 3726 2716 50600 7757 25780 2492 3325 15840 2146 3159 6724 12010 19430 4294 5971 6885 22650 8098 34740 1934 5740 7911 6178 5362 8231 2960 9775 11900 4091 5757 17400 16770 7222 29730 8156 4807 21960 9150 9439 14490 8819 13910 13190 10610 32160 9019 5885 9052 4420 10510 2523 20200 6309 5896 4855 19520 6196 5317 6705 7615 1578 1819 22140 32820 5337 5117 23430 4627 6759 40350 14680 14790 14020 5836 4678 5571 7019 14730 1599 4824 6944 4428 5406 4561 5627 7716 5061 8475 11020 13810 14450 22070 7200 7676 16700 8416 5100 5756 19970 15060 19030 4882 3631 21260 5402 15640 13130 10780 17320 5173 5446 2895 10810 9726 5191 2848 11160 6128 17610 7915 4113 966 28190 15860 5569 4758 4917 23290 24830 24450 21500 17210 6944 7731 5719 7800 4691 7978 6167 1143 8600 4354 3879 6205 13680 27650 16630 4775 8076 23990 6661 7949 24040 5903 5168 6249 10360 6489 5289 12010
2021-03-08 2848 4965 8427 7995 9332 9613 11400 3788 23090 29820 17530 4166 17440 7949 7667 8065 13220 21940 97910 6759 17410 9011 5790 24850 4577 24940 6883 45840 10630 6433 27820 6835 14130 29910 5845 23990 6092 9005 6880 9648 16710 13700 5485 13790 6908 9825 8150 8213 15330 11950 12490 3645 8893 20150 21080 5945 4755 4158 7507 11080 3100 5260 13790 2520 36620 22970 2687 7752 30490 8277 7099 10130 4102 19620 2751 21540 11480 7754 25930 30160 2905 3989 4750 8045 5977 4453 17100 9257 8530 6505 5587 2959 7183 29360 12300 5113 6853 4888 5118 5171 7988 3035 4645 13380 7902 6263 3763 10140 5461 21890 7166 11700 4091 12680 4947 20440 7806 7446 20080 4201 8533 6169 6905 26520 6783 8073 4789 25560 5851 5544 24100 7468 7591 7236 6670 14650 8702 5725 7315 17950 11850 31730 17160 23790 9203 58720 34820 4830 21320 6351 6681 47980 19220 12520 3731 2734 50720 7794 25810 2498 3335 15850 2150 3163 6736 12040 19470 4297 5980 6910 22680 8112 34770 1936 5747 7940 6189 5381 8251 2965 9795 11930 4110 5792 17440 16810 7229 29790 8184 4819 22000 9168 9453 14550 8832 13940 13230 10620 32190 9037 5906 9057 4428 10520 2530 20260 6316 5905 4861 19590 6214 5320 6724 7622 1583 1823 22190 32900 5341 5134 23470 4636 6764 40450 14730 14820 14030 5845 4682 5577 7054 14750 1600 4849 6972 4434 5416 4568 5636 7740 5075 8490 11050 13860 14460 22080 7209 7683 16750 8432 5116 5768 20050 15100 19060 4895 3638 21310 5411 15650 13140 10810 17380 5195 5450 2901 10860 9741 5206 2853 11170 6135 17630 7922 4124 967 28200 15890 5576 4762 4924 23360 24890 24470 21530 17240 6958 7739 5725 7807 4710 7987 6177 1144 8618 4369 3881 6217 13690 27710 16680 4780 8086 24040 6673 7965 24090 5919 5186 6272 10390 6503 5310 12030

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.