COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-05

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-30	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-07	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	12-28	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-23	2021-01-06	09-27	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	10-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-30	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-31	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-05	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-24	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-23	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	77	477	588	191	59	326	131	108	108	232	422	1251	74	158	66	58	158	49	485	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	317	107	505	93	189	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	265	52	200	250	283	60	90	71	66	244	53	95	283	35	367	289	38	184	598	151	69	188	72	246	25	249	187	118	323	538	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	589	271	95	74	75	89	72	124	53	38	122	80	92	56	180	90	448	120	220	59	201	57	398	175	103	338	101	109	135	120	482	100	156	47	444	57	115	450	138	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	297	197	360	312	429	107	379	287	104	444	71	113	731	272	200	90	37	377	90	420	29	46	296	49	62	148	118	362	79	105	63	123	85	722	23	50	159	105	50	108	59	124	122	41	55	275	158	122	225	90	44	125	126	109	154	118	201	104	174	621	83	81	173	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	37	26	163	450	42	82	404	65	130	244	210	245	167	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	82	96	78	109	80	67	102	114	245	294	456	131	152	219	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	202	105	322	189	181	125	55	108	46	140	321	91	45	138	123	369	138	49	11	557	153	92	107	85	258	324	451	387	229	77	139	117	160	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	263	83	149	432	106	139	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	68	65	68	74	68	87	74	72	69	72	143	68	72	67	53	65	68	73	66	68	68	61	57	63	110	67	74	127	73	68	68	82	68	67	70	74	69	73	65	65	68	122	74	68	70	87	68	74	74	60	73	66	69	73	74	62	74	74	62	69	68	67	66	73	73	65	67	68	68	74	70	74	74	62	67	142	68	88	69	68	71	66	71	74	123	69	125	68	66	67	74	70	73	70	81	72	58	159	72	67	77	67	60	68	69	74	68	73	74	68	74	68	73	74	74	74	73	68	68	73	73	82	68	72	67	74	66	68	67	71	70	74	63	67	68	73	67	67	70	128	74	129	68	66	65	68	67	74	68	68	96	68	68	73	74	60	65	61	73	121	66	74	74	74	73	70	73	69	67	66	61	121	67	87	68	131	69	74	121	74	65	122	74	60	68	74	65	66	74	68	67	68	68	64	58	66	62	66	74	58	59	73	67	74	68	67	82	64	82	139	65	68	68	70	38	67	66	66	61	74	68	66	71	68	65	70	68	74	73	74	67	69	70	60	73	116	71	74	71	61	67	68	73	74	81	67	69	74	61	70	125	73	67	74	124	74	72	73	68	74	88	70	67	65	72	65	60	68	74	72	74	74	83	72	65	74	73	67	73	69	74	128	67	68	77	70	74	74	73	74	68	70	75	82	67	88	73	68	68	66	66	73	73	67	68	73	68	63	67	65	74	65	69	67
Last total	2825	4887	8354	7950	9200	9587	11330	3756	23012	29699	17359	4151	17405	7925	7593	8039	13125	21868	97273	6685	17309	8977	5713	24590	4515	24782	6846	45380	10611	6389	27703	6808	14078	29724	5804	23925	6051	8979	6780	9608	16536	13544	5424	13743	6856	9824	8120	8166	15255	11794	12444	3639	8861	20003	20859	5914	4726	4128	7468	10992	3050	5139	13723	2504	36377	22724	2677	7702	30324	8238	7015	10099	4042	19414	2786	21381	11377	7709	25708	29989	2870	3987	4726	8028	5945	4397	16983	9159	8474	6479	5533	2941	7158	29290	12252	5097	6755	4839	5067	5067	7972	3014	4601	13279	7792	6251	3731	10099	5395	21854	7160	11650	4061	12626	4878	20397	7761	7374	20046	4171	8462	6140	6858	26453	6679	8046	4749	25438	5754	5536	23950	7407	7554	7176	6652	14623	8679	5656	7245	17883	11827	31430	17087	23715	9127	58127	34422	4807	21271	6297	6636	47653	19115	12492	3705	2682	50351	7670	25710	2462	3309	15782	2132	3146	6678	11964	19289	4285	5952	6792	22557	8070	34686	1925	5735	7865	6151	5289	8189	2938	9741	11855	4033	5683	17298	16658	7198	29539	8118	4767	21828	9070	9405	14366	8800	13847	13105	10551	32070	8975	5825	9031	4404	10475	2494	20111	6275	5850	4836	19427	6131	5303	6629	7594	1565	1799	22025	32720	5329	5074	23350	4602	6744	40099	14562	14705	13972	5808	4667	5542	6975	14660	1592	4749	6894	4398	5376	4537	5594	7679	5052	8431	10929	13711	14408	22032	7176	7651	16603	8346	5078	5713	19828	14953	18960	4844	3620	21158	5369	15576	13104	10692	17211	5101	5436	2890	10666	9681	5148	2842	11147	6102	17525	7893	4077	964	28169	15790	5542	4749	4890	23218	24676	24409	21481	17176	6895	7719	5711	7780	4631	7980	6131	1139	8593	4300	3879	6192	13662	27611	16489	4756	8068	23883	6617	7913	23969	5847	5131	6186	10258	6447	5262	11952
Last daily increment	1	4	13	16	14	6	12	3	11	17	44	1	17	21	16	5	14	11	132	12	30	10	4	35	7	10	6	97	18	11	13	11	5	29	4	9	11	1	14	6	27	19	0	13	8	4	3	4	18	16	12	1	8	25	21	8	6	1	9	12	3	9	10	1	49	37	4	3	11	14	20	7	8	25	58	40	19	5	27	26	4	12	1	8	5	8	23	14	9	2	12	0	11	11	4	3	19	4	8	12	3	6	9	20	13	2	7	3	3	13	11	7	4	5	7	9	5	10	29	1	21	5	6	14	4	8	14	24	10	1	20	18	10	5	0	7	5	15	8	51	19	57	6	12	10	140	68	5	8	8	13	31	31	2	0	4	48	12	7	1	13	13	3	4	6	16	27	2	7	11	36	12	19	1	14	36	5	5	24	2	14	21	8	20	19	21	4	37	15	6	25	3	14	36	4	22	26	12	18	12	17	1	11	13	1	26	4	7	0	48	18	3	9	8	8	4	41	33	6	2	27	7	2	56	9	14	11	2	3	7	25	9	2	20	9	3	5	1	14	19	21	13	7	16	10	16	2	6	22	6	5	2	34	25	30	7	9	22	4	12	14	22	33	6	2	4	13	10	4	8	15	2	8	1	7	0	25	18	1	2	6	62	30	17	13	30	7	10	3	4	5	7	7	1	13	9	3	12	12	41	19	6	15	27	12	5	29	2	3	8	6	7	25	14
Last week	9	41	73	99	104	40	85	15	107	146	316	28	102	86	120	44	90	66	896	91	129	95	56	254	73	105	35	663	69	83	142	39	76	192	26	68	49	25	69	66	149	152	24	71	61	53	26	26	134	164	47	32	45	216	184	78	27	17	56	105	34	76	63	14	366	243	25	49	130	86	90	46	41	190	93	272	115	47	216	212	24	76	22	43	50	52	200	115	61	13	60	4	45	94	38	22	102	24	41	96	34	23	56	106	93	35	29	52	21	104	44	72	30	59	60	63	44	61	142	21	97	25	55	87	40	34	55	168	73	16	164	131	82	50	9	61	33	65	68	341	75	395	79	96	53	699	431	27	52	65	64	255	209	38	9	52	354	89	89	21	48	83	21	23	34	138	164	23	46	76	191	91	160	10	41	155	36	39	124	10	74	167	52	114	161	154	43	277	98	46	173	40	44	253	74	97	175	59	120	86	101	25	49	60	21	230	28	36	8	361	77	16	69	28	28	10	231	272	31	49	174	41	29	405	123	108	97	28	32	38	143	104	5	122	72	19	32	20	38	100	75	55	94	122	79	94	43	26	136	47	63	50	219	162	227	56	51	210	20	84	61	131	200	61	26	20	87	72	34	23	73	35	76	21	41	7	100	107	15	26	40	414	222	105	120	149	83	50	27	18	55	72	41	6	97	68	27	66	86	281	154	24	58	142	47	56	153	55	44	69	83	33	94	85
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		163	99	55	233		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165			55									31					32						55						41	129	71				25			71	31	55				65									42		52				59										152		86	541	254					530					611	61								73					391				51									58	68			610			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		64			44		67				237	232	85		183			435	113						65								24	70		76							118				182	125		31		127					177	46			90								47			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	62		34		27					21	81					19	33	55						9			32			16	55		18			31				14		106	71	9							53			18									15					8						17						11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18									11		14				21										19		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14									16	7			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	21		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18		16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-06 to 2021-03-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-05	2825	4887	8354	7950	9200	9587	11330	3756	23012	29699	17359	4151	17405	7925	7593	8039	13125	21868	97273	6685	17309	8977	5713	24590	4515	24782	6846	45380	10611	6389	27703	6808	14078	29724	5804	23925	6051	8979	6780	9608	16536	13544	5424	13743	6856	9824	8120	8166	15255	11794	12444	3639	8861	20003	20859	5914	4726	4128	7468	10992	3050	5139	13723	2504	36377	22724	2677	7702	30324	8238	7015	10099	4042	19414	2786	21381	11377	7709	25708	29989	2870	3987	4726	8028	5945	4397	16983	9159	8474	6479	5533	7158	29290	12252	5097	6755	4839	5067	5067	7972	3014	4601	13279	7792	6251	3731	10099	5395	21854	7160	11650	4061	12626	4878	20397	7761	7374	20046	4171	8462	6140	6858	26453	6679	8046	4749	25438	5754	5536	23950	7407	7554	7176	6652	14623	8679	5656	7245	17883	11827	31430	17087	23715	9127	58127	34422	4807	21271	6297	6636	47653	19115	12492	3705	2682	50351	7670	25710	2462	3309	15782	2132	3146	6678	11964	19289	4285	5952	6792	22557	8070	34686	1925	5735	7865	6151	5289	8189	2938	9741	11855	4033	5683	17298	16658	7198	29539	8118	4767	21828	9070	9405	14366	8800	13847	13105	10551	32070	8975	5825	9031	4404	10475	2494	20111	6275	5850	4836	19427	6131	5303	6629	7594	1565	1799	22025	32720	5329	5074	23350	4602	6744	40099	14562	14705	13972	5808	4667	5542	6975	14660	4749	6894	4398	5376	4537	5594	7679	5052	8431	10929	13711	14408	22032	7176	7651	16603	8346	5078	5713	19828	14953	18960	4844	3620	21158	5369	15576	13104	10692	17211	5101	5436	2890	10666	9681	5148	2842	11147	6102	17525	7893	4077	964	28169	15790	5542	4749	4890	23218	24676	24409	21481	17176	6895	7719	5711	7780	4631	7980	6131	1139	8593	4300	3879	6192	13662	27611	16489	4756	8068	23883	6617	7913	23969	5847	5131	6186	10258	6447	5262	11952
2021-03-06	2828	4898	8384	7960	9228	9608	11350	3760	23040	29710	17410	4159	17430	7928	7615	8061	13140	21890	97460	6702	17360	8995	5725	24640	4543	24840	6861	45580	10620	6403	27720	6821	14120	29840	5814	23950	6061	8986	6826	9624	16550	13580	5429	13760	6886	9829	8130	8173	15260	11830	12470	3647	8864	20080	20900	5925	4734	4133	7493	11020	3054	5151	13770	2508	36480	22740	2681	7730	30360	8253	7050	10120	4051	19430	2820	21410	11430	7721	25800	30010	2875	3996	4744	8036	5955	4408	17020	9208	8510	6493	5546	7173	29320	12270	5099	6776	4845	5076	5116	7986	3019	4612	13330	7844	6260	3736	10110	5408	21870	7168	11670	4063	12680	4890	20400	7770	7389	20070	4176	8480	6157	6869	26460	6693	8055	4769	25450	5765	5552	23960	7442	7577	7211	6660	14640	8691	5670	7274	17930	11840	31490	17090	23730	9141	58450	34490	4822	21290	6323	6648	47760	19130	12490	3708	2702	50440	7729	25720	2466	3319	15800	2140	3151	6708	11990	19320	4290	5975	6809	22590	8085	34690	1927	5743	7891	6156	5301	8210	2938	9753	11880	4046	5707	17340	16690	7207	29560	8125	4777	21850	9082	9416	14480	8817	13870	13160	10590	32090	9006	5845	9040	4412	10480	2499	20190	6294	5859	4846	19500	6160	5308	6645	7601	1569	1807	22040	32750	5335	5092	23420	4610	6750	40140	14590	14740	13990	5827	4673	5552	6999	14680	4780	6905	4402	5383	4542	5601	7698	5063	8481	10950	13750	14420	22040	7188	7659	16640	8358	5088	5724	19860	14990	19000	4867	3628	21210	5375	15590	13130	10720	17230	5143	5447	2894	10670	9716	5157	2846	11160	6116	17540	7910	4082	965	28190	15810	5559	4751	4900	23280	24770	24430	21530	17180	6910	7731	5727	7785	4643	7980	6153	1140	8609	4313	3883	6212	13690	27640	16510	4761	8078	23970	6628	7925	24000	5858	5156	6195	10280	6462	5284	11970
2021-03-07	2838	4938	8408	7966	9243	9623	11360	3773	23070	29720	17490	4161	17440	7932	7657	8075	13150	21910	97600	6737	17400	9007	5764	24680	4563	24880	6870	45730	10640	6438	27740	6831	14140	29910	5819	23990	6086	9005	6852	9638	16570	13590	5432	13790	6906	9840	8134	8182	15270	11910	12510	3659	8875	20140	21000	5938	4744	4152	7507	11060	3068	5157	13800	2518	36550	22770	2687	7743	30380	8273	7074	10140	4077	19460	2851	21450	11480	7738	25860	30020	2891	4003	4753	8043	5969	4444	17110	9245	8536	6499	5555	7194	29360	12290	5106	6826	4866	5081	5146	7998	3033	4631	13360	7880	6267	3738	10130	5414	21910	7176	11690	4073	12700	4921	20410	7794	7422	20120	4191	8511	6167	6893	26480	6742	8064	4784	25490	5779	5561	23980	7464	7591	7230	6679	14660	8701	5689	7293	17970	11850	31550	17110	23750	9154	58690	34540	4834	21320	6346	6670	47810	19160	12500	3721	2717	50480	7768	25740	2481	3330	15820	2157	3160	6725	12010	19340	4300	5988	6870	22650	8109	34710	1932	5749	7919	6165	5342	8233	2938	9767	11920	4079	5756	17370	16770	7222	29600	8137	4798	21870	9095	9447	14550	8832	13880	13210	10630	32120	9024	5880	9042	4426	10480	2515	20240	6305	5879	4851	19560	6206	5320	6691	7611	1577	1823	22060	32780	5349	5104	23470	4630	6764	40190	14600	14760	14010	5839	4687	5569	7028	14690	4806	6917	4410	5404	4557	5620	7738	5072	8515	11000	13770	14430	22060	7215	7680	16660	8400	5098	5753	19900	15010	19070	4883	3645	21250	5395	15640	13150	10770	17250	5167	5461	2908	10680	9780	5161	2856	11180	6143	17560	7921	4087	966	28230	15820	5568	4753	4919	23350	24830	24460	21560	17180	6940	7750	5737	7792	4686	7983	6167	1141	8622	4338	3892	6226	13710	27670	16510	4768	8099	24030	6661	7948	24020	5891	5167	6202	10340	6465	5301	12000
2021-03-08	2844	4964	8438	7981	9274	9637	11380	3782	23090	29740	17550	4166	17470	7936	7689	8086	13170	21920	97790	6764	17440	9026	5790	24740	4583	24910	6881	45890	10650	6463	27750	6843	14160	29970	5823	24020	6104	9018	6880	9658	16600	13630	5435	13810	6922	9850	8141	8189	15280	11970	12540	3668	8882	20200	21070	5956	4751	4165	7526	11090	3077	5169	13840	2524	36620	22800	2692	7754	30410	8290	7109	10160	4094	19480	2881	21520	11520	7750	25930	30050	2903	4011	4765	8050	5981	4468	17170	9281	8556	6505	5562	7212	29390	12290	5110	6862	4879	5088	5179	8008	3042	4646	13400	7913	6277	3743	10150	5417	21930	7184	11700	4079	12720	4943	20420	7810	7446	20150	4202	8535	6178	6910	26490	6774	8068	4803	25520	5791	5570	24000	7496	7608	7248	6690	14670	8710	5705	7314	18030	11850	31620	17120	23760	9170	58930	34630	4845	21340	6369	6687	47860	19180	12500	3729	2735	50540	7809	25750	2491	3342	15840	2169	3167	6738	12040	19370	4307	6001	6910	22690	8128	34720	1936	5759	7945	6171	5368	8254	2938	9781	11950	4103	5792	17410	16830	7234	29640	8157	4814	21900	9098	9468	14620	8851	13890	13260	10660	32140	9050	5908	9044	4438	10480	2526	20300	6315	5893	4856	19650	6241	5329	6723	7619	1583	1834	22090	32840	5359	5119	23520	4643	6774	40250	14630	14770	14030	5848	4697	5581	7065	14710	4839	6928	4415	5418	4567	5633	7767	5090	8545	11030	13790	14440	22070	7234	7694	16690	8427	5118	5773	19940	15050	19130	4899	3658	21310	5408	15670	13170	10800	17290	5195	5472	2917	10710	9826	5167	2862	11200	6163	17570	7927	4093	967	28250	15840	5578	4756	4933	23420	24890	24480	21600	17200	6962	7764	5748	7797	4715	7990	6180	1142	8641	4357	3899	6242	13730	27720	16550	4774	8115	24090	6683	7965	24060	5912	5186	6210	10390	6470	5323	12030
2021-03-09	2848	4983	8458	8001	9282	9643	11390	3789	23110	29750	17600	4171	17480	7941	7716	8093	13170	21940	97970	6785	17470	9040	5810	24780	4602	24930	6891	46040	10660	6481	27770	6852	14180	30020	5831	24040	6118	9027	6904	9671	16620	13680	5439	13830	6939	9855	8146	8196	15290	12010	12560	3675	8887	20260	21120	5970	4758	4174	7536	11110	3084	5188	13860	2529	36690	22850	2696	7765	30430	8306	7123	10170	4108	19520	2908	21560	11540	7761	25990	30080	2911	4019	4769	8057	5992	4486	17220	9305	8575	6506	5579	7226	29420	12300	5113	6890	4889	5102	5209	8015	3049	4659	13420	7933	6284	3752	10160	5423	21950	7192	11710	4084	12740	4960	20420	7822	7465	20180	4209	8556	6186	6924	26500	6798	8077	4817	25540	5802	5576	24030	7532	7624	7263	6697	14680	8718	5718	7329	18090	11860	31690	17120	23780	9180	59150	34720	4852	21360	6388	6702	47930	19200	12510	3734	2749	50610	7830	25770	2498	3348	15850	2178	3172	6751	12050	19400	4313	6008	6940	22730	8145	34730	1938	5767	7971	6178	5388	8274	2942	9798	11980	4121	5823	17440	16870	7244	29660	8174	4826	21920	9104	9483	14690	8870	13900	13300	10690	32160	9065	5931	9047	4447	10490	2534	20350	6323	5905	4859	19720	6270	5335	6747	7626	1588	1843	22120	32890	5366	5130	23570	4654	6781	40310	14650	14800	14050	5852	4705	5591	7088	14730	4859	6938	4420	5428	4575	5644	7791	5101	8573	11060	13810	14440	22080	7249	7705	16720	8447	5129	5788	19970	15070	19180	4913	3668	21350	5417	15700	13180	10840	17340	5211	5481	2923	10740	9863	5170	2868	11210	6178	17580	7933	4103	969	28280	15850	5584	4757	4944	23500	24940	24500	21620	17210	6980	7776	5754	7801	4736	7995	6187	1143	8655	4374	3904	6260	13750	27760	16560	4778	8129	24120	6699	7979	24090	5928	5198	6218	10420	6480	5334	12050
2021-03-10	2852	5000	8474	8016	9297	9653	11420	3794	23130	29760	17660	4177	17500	7945	7741	8104	13190	21950	98150	6806	17490	9055	5828	24830	4617	24950	6898	46160	10670	6499	27790	6860	14200	30060	5833	24060	6130	9036	6924	9683	16650	13710	5442	13850	6956	9866	8149	8202	15300	12060	12580	3683	8892	20300	21170	5990	4770	4182	7545	11130	3090	5199	13890	2533	36760	22910	2700	7775	30450	8321	7144	10190	4120	19550	2935	21620	11580	7771	26050	30120	2918	4028	4773	8063	6002	4503	17260	9337	8586	6506	5594	7240	29440	12320	5115	6917	4898	5118	5232	8022	3055	4671	13450	7953	6289	3765	10180	5431	21970	7199	11730	4088	12760	4976	20430	7833	7483	20210	4216	8576	6191	6936	26500	6819	8082	4826	25560	5813	5579	24070	7559	7636	7276	6704	14700	8725	5732	7351	18160	11870	31750	17130	23790	9191	59370	34810	4860	21370	6400	6716	47970	19220	12510	3739	2756	50670	7859	25780	2505	3358	15870	2188	3177	6763	12070	19420	4318	6018	6966	22760	8161	34740	1941	5774	7996	6181	5406	8295	2948	9811	12000	4138	5852	17470	16910	7254	29680	8186	4839	21940	9113	9497	14760	8882	13900	13340	10710	32180	9085	5953	9051	4455	10500	2542	20400	6330	5915	4861	19790	6298	5341	6770	7632	1593	1852	22130	32940	5374	5141	23620	4664	6788	40410	14670	14820	14080	5857	4712	5601	7110	14730	4881	6949	4424	5437	4582	5653	7814	5114	8602	11090	13830	14450	22090	7264	7716	16750	8465	5139	5802	20000	15120	19230	4930	3678	21380	5425	15720	13190	10870	17360	5231	5490	2929	10760	9897	5179	2873	11220	6193	17590	7939	4111	972	28300	15880	5591	4759	4954	23550	24980	24520	21650	17230	6997	7788	5763	7805	4755	8001	6199	1144	8668	4389	3909	6271	13760	27820	16560	4783	8141	24150	6714	7991	24120	5943	5213	6225	10450	6484	5356	12060
2021-03-11	2855	5014	8481	8030	9297	9658	11430	3799	23150	29770	17710	4179	17520	7950	7764	8109	13190	21960	98290	6824	17510	9077	5842	24870	4624	24960	6902	46270	10670	6513	27790	6868	14210	30100	5833	24080	6141	9042	6932	9693	16660	13720	5445	13860	6966	9873	8149	8207	15310	12090	12600	3689	8896	20340	21220	6002	4775	4188	7554	11160	3094	5209	13910	2536	36820	22940	2704	7784	30470	8335	7154	10200	4130	19580	2962	21660	11610	7780	26080	30130	2924	4037	4778	8070	6012	4516	17310	9356	8591	6506	5602	7253	29460	12320	5117	6939	4905	5122	5249	8028	3060	4683	13460	7974	6294	3767	10190	5431	21990	7207	11740	4092	12770	4990	20430	7842	7498	20230	4222	8595	6195	6947	26510	6835	8087	4834	25570	5823	5584	24090	7574	7653	7286	6709	14710	8732	5745	7363	18210	11880	31810	17130	23800	9199	59560	34870	4862	21390	6406	6729	48020	19240	12510	3743	2767	50720	7872	25790	2510	3364	15880	2195	3182	6769	12090	19440	4323	6025	6987	22800	8176	34750	1943	5780	8022	6181	5420	8315	2948	9822	12030	4152	5877	17500	16950	7262	29700	8197	4850	21960	9113	9509	14790	8894	13910	13360	10730	32200	9101	5973	9051	4463	10500	2547	20440	6335	5924	4865	19830	6324	5346	6788	7638	1597	1859	22130	32970	5380	5149	23650	4672	6794	40460	14690	14830	14090	5858	4718	5610	7123	14740	4898	6958	4427	5445	4588	5661	7834	5123	8621	11110	13850	14460	22100	7276	7724	16770	8480	5149	5813	20030	15150	19270	4937	3686	21410	5432	15740	13200	10900	17390	5240	5498	2934	10770	9927	5179	2877	11230	6207	17600	7943	4118	972	28320	15890	5591	4761	4963	23620	25000	24540	21670	17240	7012	7799	5767	7808	4770	8009	6205	1144	8679	4403	3914	6284	13770	27860	16560	4787	8153	24170	6726	8003	24140	5955	5218	6233	10480	6484	5369	12080
2021-03-12	2857	5026	8493	8044	9310	9664	11440	3803	23170	29780	17770	4182	17530	7954	7786	8117	13200	21970	98430	6841	17540	9090	5856	24910	4634	24990	6909	46370	10680	6527	27800	6876	14220	30130	5835	24100	6151	9048	6944	9701	16690	13740	5448	13870	6978	9878	8153	8213	15320	12130	12620	3696	8899	20360	21250	6012	4779	4193	7565	11180	3098	5217	13920	2539	36880	22970	2708	7790	30490	8349	7173	10210	4140	19600	2988	21690	11630	7789	26120	30160	2930	4045	4780	8077	6022	4529	17340	9373	8603	6510	5612	7265	29480	12330	5119	6961	4912	5130	5264	8032	3064	4693	13480	7990	6296	3772	10200	5432	22010	7214	11750	4095	12780	5002	20440	7851	7512	20260	4227	8613	6201	6958	26520	6850	8094	4846	25590	5833	5587	24110	7592	7665	7293	6713	14720	8739	5757	7373	18250	11890	31870	17140	23810	9209	59670	34930	4867	21400	6417	6741	48050	19250	12520	3746	2772	50790	7889	25800	2515	3374	15900	2203	3186	6777	12110	19470	4328	6033	7006	22830	8191	34760	1944	5792	8047	6184	5433	8334	2950	9833	12060	4165	5902	17520	16980	7271	29720	8212	4860	21980	9115	9519	14820	8900	13930	13390	10750	32220	9113	5993	9056	4471	10510	2553	20460	6340	5933	4867	19880	6348	5350	6805	7644	1601	1866	22170	33010	5386	5155	23670	4680	6799	40510	14710	14850	14100	5862	4723	5618	7147	14750	4917	6968	4430	5452	4593	5668	7853	5140	8632	11130	13870	14470	22120	7288	7732	16800	8493	5154	5824	20070	15170	19310	4946	3695	21440	5438	15760	13210	10920	17420	5248	5505	2938	10780	9955	5185	2881	11250	6219	17610	7946	4123	972	28330	15910	5594	4762	4972	23680	25030	24560	21680	17270	7027	7809	5772	7811	4784	8017	6215	1145	8693	4416	3918	6294	13790	27900	16590	4791	8163	24200	6737	8013	24160	5966	5222	6241	10500	6489	5389	12100

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-06 to 2021-03-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-05	2825	4887	8354	7950	9200	9587	11330	3756	23012	29699	17359	4151	17405	7925	7593	8039	13125	21868	97273	6685	17309	8977	5713	24590	4515	24782	6846	45380	10611	6389	27703	6808	14078	29724	5804	23925	6051	8979	6780	9608	16536	13544	5424	13743	6856	9824	8120	8166	15255	11794	12444	3639	8861	20003	20859	5914	4726	4128	7468	10992	3050	5139	13723	2504	36377	22724	2677	7702	30324	8238	7015	10099	4042	19414	2786	21381	11377	7709	25708	29989	2870	3987	4726	8028	5945	4397	16983	9159	8474	6479	5533	7158	29290	12252	5097	6755	4839	5067	5067	7972	3014	4601	13279	7792	6251	3731	10099	5395	21854	7160	11650	4061	12626	4878	20397	7761	7374	20046	4171	8462	6140	6858	26453	6679	8046	4749	25438	5754	5536	23950	7407	7554	7176	6652	14623	8679	5656	7245	17883	11827	31430	17087	23715	9127	58127	34422	4807	21271	6297	6636	47653	19115	12492	3705	2682	50351	7670	25710	2462	3309	15782	2132	3146	6678	11964	19289	4285	5952	6792	22557	8070	34686	1925	5735	7865	6151	5289	8189	2938	9741	11855	4033	5683	17298	16658	7198	29539	8118	4767	21828	9070	9405	14366	8800	13847	13105	10551	32070	8975	5825	9031	4404	10475	2494	20111	6275	5850	4836	19427	6131	5303	6629	7594	1565	1799	22025	32720	5329	5074	23350	4602	6744	40099	14562	14705	13972	5808	4667	5542	6975	14660	4749	6894	4398	5376	4537	5594	7679	5052	8431	10929	13711	14408	22032	7176	7651	16603	8346	5078	5713	19828	14953	18960	4844	3620	21158	5369	15576	13104	10692	17211	5101	5436	2890	10666	9681	5148	2842	11147	6102	17525	7893	4077	964	28169	15790	5542	4749	4890	23218	24676	24409	21481	17176	6895	7719	5711	7780	4631	7980	6131	1139	8593	4300	3879	6192	13662	27611	16489	4756	8068	23883	6617	7913	23969	5847	5131	6186	10258	6447	5262	11952
2021-03-06	2827	4896	8360	7963	9212	9592	11340	3760	23020	29710	17410	4154	17420	7937	7612	8044	13140	21880	97380	6701	17330	8990	5722	24630	4525	24800	6851	45480	10620	6400	27720	6818	14090	29750	5807	23940	6059	8984	6794	9614	16560	13560	5427	13760	6863	9828	8123	8170	15270	11820	12450	3643	8867	20030	20890	5924	4726	4132	7478	11010	3056	5151	13730	2507	36430	22740	2680	7711	30340	8252	7029	10110	4051	19440	2812	21410	11390	7717	25740	30010	2875	3995	4732	8035	5954	4404	17010	9174	8485	6481	5538	7165	29310	12260	5101	6771	4845	5072	5077	7976	3017	4612	13300	7811	6254	3733	10110	5398	21870	7166	11660	4067	12640	4889	20410	7768	7383	20070	4174	8480	6144	6868	26470	6678	8050	4760	25470	5764	5538	23970	7424	7567	7185	6655	14630	8682	5667	7252	17930	11840	31470	17100	23730	9132	58220	34450	4814	21280	6307	6647	47690	19150	12490	3708	2688	50400	7684	25720	2466	3317	15790	2135	3151	6685	11980	19310	4288	5960	6807	22600	8080	34710	1927	5740	7892	6155	5300	8209	2936	9751	11880	4046	5703	17320	16680	7202	29590	8125	4777	21850	9072	9414	14400	8807	13860	13130	10560	32090	8990	5845	9035	4414	10480	2499	20140	6281	5858	4837	19460	6147	5306	6646	7598	1569	1803	22040	32740	5334	5080	23380	4611	6749	40140	14580	14720	13980	5812	4672	5547	6994	14670	4766	6899	4401	5382	4541	5600	7696	5061	8437	10950	13730	14420	22040	7182	7657	16620	8354	5084	5723	19850	14970	18990	4849	3626	21180	5372	15590	13110	10710	17240	5109	5441	2894	10670	9694	5157	2847	11160	6107	17540	7896	4082	964	28190	15800	5543	4751	4896	23270	24710	24420	21500	17200	6907	7729	5716	7781	4637	7985	6134	1140	8606	4313	3882	6199	13680	27620	16500	4760	8078	23900	6624	7919	23980	5855	5138	6191	10270	6452	5279	11970
2021-03-07	2831	4913	8373	7973	9225	9598	11350	3767	23040	29730	17460	4157	17430	7947	7635	8053	13160	21890	97490	6719	17350	9001	5738	24660	4541	24810	6858	45600	10630	6411	27740	6826	14110	29780	5811	23960	6069	8992	6809	9624	16590	13580	5435	13770	6876	9835	8128	8175	15290	11860	12460	3648	8875	20060	20940	5935	4731	4140	7486	11040	3067	5162	13740	2511	36490	22780	2684	7720	30370	8267	7046	10120	4062	19460	2823	21430	11410	7729	25780	30030	2883	4000	4736	8040	5966	4418	17050	9194	8498	6485	5546	7171	29320	12270	5106	6795	4854	5078	5092	7982	3020	4623	13320	7835	6258	3735	10120	5405	21890	7171	11660	4075	12660	4904	20420	7779	7397	20090	4179	8499	6150	6881	26490	6693	8057	4771	25510	5777	5541	23990	7440	7580	7194	6661	14640	8687	5675	7259	17970	11840	31530	17120	23740	9137	58330	34500	4821	21290	6320	6659	47730	19190	12500	3713	2698	50460	7705	25740	2473	3324	15810	2141	3156	6695	11990	19350	4292	5967	6830	22630	8095	34730	1929	5742	7916	6162	5319	8230	2937	9761	11900	4064	5729	17340	16710	7207	29660	8136	4791	21870	9087	9425	14440	8818	13880	13170	10580	32110	9000	5867	9040	4423	10490	2506	20170	6288	5870	4839	19510	6166	5311	6666	7602	1574	1807	22070	32760	5339	5089	23400	4620	6755	40200	14590	14740	13990	5818	4678	5557	7018	14680	4790	6909	4405	5390	4549	5608	7718	5069	8445	10970	13750	14430	22050	7191	7666	16630	8370	5091	5735	19890	14990	19020	4859	3633	21220	5380	15610	13130	10740	17260	5122	5445	2897	10690	9711	5167	2851	11170	6116	17550	7905	4086	966	28200	15810	5547	4753	4906	23330	24750	24440	21520	17210	6923	7740	5721	7785	4653	7991	6144	1141	8616	4330	3886	6204	13690	27650	16520	4762	8087	23930	6637	7933	24000	5868	5149	6200	10300	6458	5295	11980
2021-03-08	2835	4927	8393	7989	9260	9607	11370	3772	23060	29750	17510	4162	17450	7957	7657	8061	13180	21890	97640	6737	17370	9013	5753	24720	4556	24830	6867	45720	10650	6426	27760	6833	14120	29820	5817	23970	6081	8999	6828	9639	16620	13610	5443	13780	6885	9842	8135	8181	15310	11890	12470	3653	8882	20110	20980	5948	4733	4146	7497	11060	3076	5177	13750	2515	36550	22820	2688	7728	30400	8283	7070	10130	4074	19490	2833	21490	11430	7739	25830	30070	2889	4009	4744	8046	5977	4432	17080	9216	8510	6490	5553	7177	29340	12280	5110	6818	4861	5085	5118	7988	3026	4634	13350	7857	6263	3740	10130	5412	21910	7175	11670	4081	12670	4918	20420	7788	7413	20100	4185	8518	6158	6892	26500	6712	8060	4782	25540	5790	5545	24010	7464	7595	7206	6665	14650	8692	5683	7275	18020	11850	31600	17130	23760	9149	58480	34580	4827	21300	6335	6670	47770	19220	12510	3717	2713	50530	7729	25760	2479	3334	15820	2145	3160	6703	12020	19370	4296	5975	6852	22660	8110	34760	1931	5746	7943	6169	5334	8251	2938	9772	11930	4079	5755	17370	16740	7212	29720	8157	4803	21900	9097	9436	14480	8831	13890	13200	10590	32130	9015	5887	9045	4430	10500	2512	20230	6296	5880	4844	19580	6182	5314	6684	7607	1580	1810	22120	32820	5346	5100	23430	4628	6761	40270	14620	14750	14010	5825	4684	5564	7051	14700	4817	6924	4410	5398	4555	5617	7739	5082	8456	11000	13780	14440	22060	7199	7674	16650	8384	5105	5746	19930	15020	19060	4871	3644	21260	5388	15630	13140	10770	17300	5140	5449	2902	10710	9725	5175	2854	11180	6123	17560	7910	4090	967	28220	15820	5554	4755	4914	23390	24790	24450	21550	17230	6939	7750	5726	7788	4667	7998	6154	1142	8634	4345	3890	6215	13710	27690	16550	4764	8097	23970	6649	7952	24020	5885	5164	6212	10330	6466	5314	12000
2021-03-09	2837	4940	8408	8008	9274	9612	11380	3776	23080	29770	17570	4165	17460	7967	7679	8068	13200	21900	97780	6753	17400	9025	5766	24760	4572	24850	6873	45850	10660	6439	27790	6840	14130	29860	5825	23990	6090	9005	6846	9651	16640	13640	5449	13790	6896	9847	8141	8186	15330	11920	12480	3657	8887	20150	21020	5959	4737	4151	7505	11080	3084	5192	13760	2518	36610	22860	2691	7740	30420	8297	7084	10130	4083	19530	2843	21520	11450	7749	25870	30110	2895	4020	4746	8052	5987	4446	17110	9234	8522	6493	5565	7183	29360	12290	5115	6842	4867	5094	5145	7994	3030	4645	13370	7875	6268	3746	10140	5419	21920	7179	11680	4087	12690	4930	20430	7795	7427	20120	4190	8536	6165	6901	26520	6729	8066	4792	25580	5802	5549	24030	7490	7611	7217	6668	14660	8696	5690	7284	18070	11850	31670	17140	23780	9154	58610	34660	4832	21310	6348	6681	47820	19260	12510	3720	2726	50600	7746	25770	2484	3340	15830	2149	3165	6711	12040	19400	4300	5982	6869	22690	8126	34780	1933	5750	7968	6175	5347	8270	2942	9783	11960	4092	5779	17400	16770	7217	29780	8173	4814	21920	9107	9443	14540	8846	13910	13230	10600	32150	9027	5906	9052	4437	10510	2518	20270	6302	5889	4846	19640	6197	5318	6699	7611	1584	1813	22160	32860	5352	5108	23450	4636	6766	40340	14640	14770	14020	5828	4690	5572	7073	14710	4837	6940	4413	5404	4561	5622	7760	5092	8467	11020	13800	14450	22070	7207	7680	16680	8396	5115	5756	19970	15040	19090	4883	3654	21290	5393	15650	13150	10790	17340	5151	5454	2904	10730	9738	5182	2858	11190	6131	17570	7916	4095	968	28230	15830	5558	4759	4921	23450	24830	24470	21570	17250	6953	7760	5729	7791	4679	8006	6160	1143	8644	4359	3894	6230	13720	27720	16570	4766	8107	24000	6658	7962	24040	5897	5176	6224	10350	6476	5327	12020
2021-03-10	2840	4955	8423	8022	9299	9621	11400	3780	23090	29800	17620	4168	17480	7975	7704	8078	13220	21910	97950	6772	17420	9036	5782	24800	4587	24870	6878	45970	10670	6451	27820	6846	14150	29900	5832	24000	6098	9011	6864	9661	16680	13670	5456	13800	6908	9856	8144	8190	15350	11960	12490	3662	8893	20190	21070	5971	4744	4156	7513	11100	3093	5205	13770	2521	36670	22910	2694	7749	30450	8310	7104	10140	4093	19560	2853	21580	11480	7759	25900	30160	2900	4026	4749	8057	5998	4456	17150	9262	8533	6496	5577	7188	29370	12300	5119	6865	4872	5105	5170	8000	3035	4655	13390	7895	6272	3754	10150	5429	21940	7182	11690	4092	12700	4941	20440	7805	7441	20130	4195	8555	6170	6910	26530	6748	8071	4800	25610	5815	5551	24060	7513	7624	7228	6671	14670	8702	5697	7300	18130	11860	31750	17160	23790	9162	58750	34750	4837	21320	6361	6698	47860	19290	12520	3723	2734	50670	7770	25790	2488	3349	15850	2152	3169	6721	12060	19430	4304	5990	6886	22720	8140	34800	1935	5754	7992	6180	5359	8290	2947	9793	11990	4105	5807	17420	16800	7222	29840	8183	4825	21960	9123	9456	14610	8858	13930	13270	10620	32170	9040	5924	9059	4443	10520	2523	20320	6310	5898	4850	19710	6211	5320	6715	7614	1589	1816	22190	32900	5356	5115	23480	4643	6770	40420	14670	14780	14040	5834	4695	5578	7095	14720	4860	6950	4416	5411	4566	5630	7777	5104	8481	11040	13820	14460	22080	7214	7685	16700	8410	5123	5766	20010	15080	19130	4899	3659	21320	5398	15670	13160	10820	17360	5170	5458	2907	10750	9750	5190	2860	11200	6137	17590	7923	4101	970	28250	15850	5564	4760	4928	23500	24860	24480	21590	17270	6966	7769	5734	7795	4694	8016	6169	1143	8654	4372	3898	6241	13730	27760	16590	4768	8118	24030	6668	7973	24050	5907	5190	6241	10370	6484	5347	12030
2021-03-11	2842	4966	8438	8037	9325	9629	11420	3783	23110	29820	17680	4173	17500	7985	7728	8087	13230	21910	98090	6787	17450	9051	5794	24850	4600	24880	6886	46100	10680	6460	27850	6852	14170	29940	5835	24010	6104	9016	6881	9675	16700	13690	5462	13810	6919	9863	8152	8196	15360	11990	12490	3667	8902	20240	21100	5982	4749	4163	7522	11120	3102	5217	13790	2523	36730	22960	2697	7763	30470	8324	7122	10150	4102	19590	2863	21610	11510	7768	25940	30190	2905	4033	4754	8063	6008	4468	17180	9287	8542	6501	5590	7194	29390	12310	5124	6884	4878	5114	5195	8007	3039	4665	13410	7913	6276	3759	10160	5433	21950	7185	11690	4098	12710	4952	20450	7812	7457	20150	4199	8573	6177	6919	26550	6763	8075	4811	25640	5826	5555	24080	7535	7641	7241	6673	14680	8707	5704	7316	18180	11860	31810	17170	23800	9168	58920	34830	4841	21330	6370	6711	47910	19320	12530	3726	2747	50730	7792	25810	2493	3357	15860	2156	3173	6728	12090	19450	4307	5999	6902	22750	8155	34830	1936	5758	8016	6185	5370	8311	2949	9806	12010	4117	5826	17450	16840	7227	29890	8193	4835	21980	9138	9464	14650	8871	13940	13300	10630	32190	9053	5942	9064	4450	10520	2528	20370	6318	5906	4857	19760	6225	5323	6729	7618	1593	1818	22220	32930	5361	5122	23500	4650	6775	40510	14690	14800	14060	5841	4700	5589	7113	14740	4883	6969	4420	5418	4572	5640	7794	5114	8498	11060	13850	14470	22090	7221	7691	16720	8426	5131	5775	20040	15110	19170	4910	3668	21350	5406	15680	13180	10850	17400	5187	5462	2909	10760	9763	5196	2865	11210	6144	17600	7930	4107	971	28260	15860	5569	4762	4937	23550	24900	24500	21610	17290	6978	7778	5737	7801	4704	8028	6183	1144	8662	4385	3901	6255	13750	27800	16610	4769	8126	24070	6683	7982	24070	5919	5201	6250	10400	6493	5364	12050
2021-03-12	2845	4975	8453	8046	9344	9637	11430	3787	23120	29840	17730	4176	17510	7994	7746	8096	13250	21920	98230	6802	17480	9064	5806	24880	4615	24900	6893	46210	10700	6472	27890	6858	14180	29990	5841	24020	6111	9021	6898	9686	16720	13720	5470	13820	6931	9868	8156	8201	15390	12010	12500	3671	8907	20280	21130	5993	4753	4167	7528	11140	3110	5227	13800	2526	36790	22990	2701	7772	30490	8337	7142	10160	4110	19610	2873	21630	11530	7777	25980	30230	2910	4040	4758	8068	6018	4479	17200	9309	8556	6507	5600	7199	29410	12320	5127	6905	4883	5121	5218	8014	3043	4677	13440	7934	6279	3762	10170	5442	21960	7189	11700	4103	12730	4963	20460	7819	7472	20160	4205	8589	6184	6928	26560	6782	8080	4820	25670	5837	5558	24100	7555	7656	7253	6676	14690	8713	5711	7331	18220	11870	31870	17190	23820	9171	59030	34900	4846	21340	6384	6720	47950	19340	12530	3729	2756	50800	7815	25820	2497	3365	15870	2159	3176	6738	12110	19480	4311	6007	6913	22780	8169	34850	1938	5763	8043	6192	5381	8332	2954	9813	12040	4128	5849	17470	16870	7232	29950	8205	4845	22010	9150	9471	14680	8882	13960	13330	10640	32210	9065	5960	9071	4456	10540	2532	20410	6324	5914	4862	19810	6239	5326	6743	7622	1598	1820	22270	32950	5366	5128	23520	4657	6779	40580	14710	14810	14070	5848	4705	5597	7135	14750	4905	6980	4423	5423	4577	5648	7812	5127	8507	11080	13870	14470	22100	7228	7697	16750	8436	5138	5784	20080	15130	19200	4922	3676	21380	5411	15700	13190	10880	17420	5199	5465	2913	10770	9774	5203	2867	11220	6151	17610	7937	4110	972	28280	15870	5576	4763	4943	23610	24940	24510	21630	17310	6990	7787	5741	7804	4717	8038	6194	1145	8667	4399	3904	6266	13760	27820	16640	4771	8137	24110	6691	7995	24080	5928	5212	6258	10410	6503	5381	12070

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-05