COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-05

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-05

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2712-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-0212-2810-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0609-2712-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-2312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2110-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-242021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 77 477 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 422 1251 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 189 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 283 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 188 72 246 25 249 187 118 323 538 60 53 76 160 110 52 225 102 164 146 108 54 143 589 271 95 74 75 89 72 124 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 448 120 220 59 201 57 398 175 103 338 101 109 135 120 482 100 156 47 444 57 115 450 138 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 297 197 360 312 429 107 379 287 104 444 71 113 731 272 200 90 37 377 90 420 29 46 296 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 722 23 50 159 105 50 108 59 124 122 41 55 275 158 122 225 90 44 125 126 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 37 26 163 450 42 82 404 65 130 244 210 245 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 96 78 109 80 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 152 219 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 105 322 189 181 125 55 108 46 140 321 91 45 138 123 369 138 49 11 557 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 68 65 68 74 68 87 74 72 69 72 143 68 72 67 53 65 68 73 66 68 68 61 57 63 110 67 74 127 73 68 68 82 68 67 70 74 69 73 65 65 68 122 74 68 70 87 68 74 74 60 73 66 69 73 74 62 74 74 62 69 68 67 66 73 73 65 67 68 68 74 70 74 74 62 67 142 68 88 69 68 71 66 71 74 123 69 125 68 66 67 74 70 73 70 81 72 58 159 72 67 77 67 60 68 69 74 68 73 74 68 74 68 73 74 74 74 73 68 68 73 73 82 68 72 67 74 66 68 67 71 70 74 63 67 68 73 67 67 70 128 74 129 68 66 65 68 67 74 68 68 96 68 68 73 74 60 65 61 73 121 66 74 74 74 73 70 73 69 67 66 61 121 67 87 68 131 69 74 121 74 65 122 74 60 68 74 65 66 74 68 67 68 68 64 58 66 62 66 74 58 59 73 67 74 68 67 82 64 82 139 65 68 68 70 38 67 66 66 61 74 68 66 71 68 65 70 68 74 73 74 67 69 70 60 73 116 71 74 71 61 67 68 73 74 81 67 69 74 61 70 125 73 67 74 124 74 72 73 68 74 88 70 67 65 72 65 60 68 74 72 74 74 83 72 65 74 73 67 73 69 74 128 67 68 77 70 74 74 73 74 68 70 75 82 67 88 73 68 68 66 66 73 73 67 68 73 68 63 67 65 74 65 69 67
Last total 2825 4887 8354 7950 9200 9587 11330 3756 23012 29699 17359 4151 17405 7925 7593 8039 13125 21868 97273 6685 17309 8977 5713 24590 4515 24782 6846 45380 10611 6389 27703 6808 14078 29724 5804 23925 6051 8979 6780 9608 16536 13544 5424 13743 6856 9824 8120 8166 15255 11794 12444 3639 8861 20003 20859 5914 4726 4128 7468 10992 3050 5139 13723 2504 36377 22724 2677 7702 30324 8238 7015 10099 4042 19414 2786 21381 11377 7709 25708 29989 2870 3987 4726 8028 5945 4397 16983 9159 8474 6479 5533 2941 7158 29290 12252 5097 6755 4839 5067 5067 7972 3014 4601 13279 7792 6251 3731 10099 5395 21854 7160 11650 4061 12626 4878 20397 7761 7374 20046 4171 8462 6140 6858 26453 6679 8046 4749 25438 5754 5536 23950 7407 7554 7176 6652 14623 8679 5656 7245 17883 11827 31430 17087 23715 9127 58127 34422 4807 21271 6297 6636 47653 19115 12492 3705 2682 50351 7670 25710 2462 3309 15782 2132 3146 6678 11964 19289 4285 5952 6792 22557 8070 34686 1925 5735 7865 6151 5289 8189 2938 9741 11855 4033 5683 17298 16658 7198 29539 8118 4767 21828 9070 9405 14366 8800 13847 13105 10551 32070 8975 5825 9031 4404 10475 2494 20111 6275 5850 4836 19427 6131 5303 6629 7594 1565 1799 22025 32720 5329 5074 23350 4602 6744 40099 14562 14705 13972 5808 4667 5542 6975 14660 1592 4749 6894 4398 5376 4537 5594 7679 5052 8431 10929 13711 14408 22032 7176 7651 16603 8346 5078 5713 19828 14953 18960 4844 3620 21158 5369 15576 13104 10692 17211 5101 5436 2890 10666 9681 5148 2842 11147 6102 17525 7893 4077 964 28169 15790 5542 4749 4890 23218 24676 24409 21481 17176 6895 7719 5711 7780 4631 7980 6131 1139 8593 4300 3879 6192 13662 27611 16489 4756 8068 23883 6617 7913 23969 5847 5131 6186 10258 6447 5262 11952
Last daily increment 1 4 13 16 14 6 12 3 11 17 44 1 17 21 16 5 14 11 132 12 30 10 4 35 7 10 6 97 18 11 13 11 5 29 4 9 11 1 14 6 27 19 0 13 8 4 3 4 18 16 12 1 8 25 21 8 6 1 9 12 3 9 10 1 49 37 4 3 11 14 20 7 8 25 58 40 19 5 27 26 4 12 1 8 5 8 23 14 9 2 12 0 11 11 4 3 19 4 8 12 3 6 9 20 13 2 7 3 3 13 11 7 4 5 7 9 5 10 29 1 21 5 6 14 4 8 14 24 10 1 20 18 10 5 0 7 5 15 8 51 19 57 6 12 10 140 68 5 8 8 13 31 31 2 0 4 48 12 7 1 13 13 3 4 6 16 27 2 7 11 36 12 19 1 14 36 5 5 24 2 14 21 8 20 19 21 4 37 15 6 25 3 14 36 4 22 26 12 18 12 17 1 11 13 1 26 4 7 0 48 18 3 9 8 8 4 41 33 6 2 27 7 2 56 9 14 11 2 3 7 25 9 2 20 9 3 5 1 14 19 21 13 7 16 10 16 2 6 22 6 5 2 34 25 30 7 9 22 4 12 14 22 33 6 2 4 13 10 4 8 15 2 8 1 7 0 25 18 1 2 6 62 30 17 13 30 7 10 3 4 5 7 7 1 13 9 3 12 12 41 19 6 15 27 12 5 29 2 3 8 6 7 25 14
Last week 9 41 73 99 104 40 85 15 107 146 316 28 102 86 120 44 90 66 896 91 129 95 56 254 73 105 35 663 69 83 142 39 76 192 26 68 49 25 69 66 149 152 24 71 61 53 26 26 134 164 47 32 45 216 184 78 27 17 56 105 34 76 63 14 366 243 25 49 130 86 90 46 41 190 93 272 115 47 216 212 24 76 22 43 50 52 200 115 61 13 60 4 45 94 38 22 102 24 41 96 34 23 56 106 93 35 29 52 21 104 44 72 30 59 60 63 44 61 142 21 97 25 55 87 40 34 55 168 73 16 164 131 82 50 9 61 33 65 68 341 75 395 79 96 53 699 431 27 52 65 64 255 209 38 9 52 354 89 89 21 48 83 21 23 34 138 164 23 46 76 191 91 160 10 41 155 36 39 124 10 74 167 52 114 161 154 43 277 98 46 173 40 44 253 74 97 175 59 120 86 101 25 49 60 21 230 28 36 8 361 77 16 69 28 28 10 231 272 31 49 174 41 29 405 123 108 97 28 32 38 143 104 5 122 72 19 32 20 38 100 75 55 94 122 79 94 43 26 136 47 63 50 219 162 227 56 51 210 20 84 61 131 200 61 26 20 87 72 34 23 73 35 76 21 41 7 100 107 15 26 40 414 222 105 120 149 83 50 27 18 55 72 41 6 97 68 27 66 86 281 154 24 58 142 47 56 153 55 44 69 83 33 94 85
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1310-1110-2710-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --09-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-21 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 --10-24 -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 163 99 55 233 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 55 31 32 55 41 129 71 25 71 31 55 65 42 52 59 152 86 541 254 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 44 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 65 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 47 138 134 58 22 91 22 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 18 15 8 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 19 23 154 123 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 5 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-06 to 2021-03-12

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-05 2825 4887 8354 7950 9200 9587 11330 3756 23012 29699 17359 4151 17405 7925 7593 8039 13125 21868 97273 6685 17309 8977 5713 24590 4515 24782 6846 45380 10611 6389 27703 6808 14078 29724 5804 23925 6051 8979 6780 9608 16536 13544 5424 13743 6856 9824 8120 8166 15255 11794 12444 3639 8861 20003 20859 5914 4726 4128 7468 10992 3050 5139 13723 2504 36377 22724 2677 7702 30324 8238 7015 10099 4042 19414 2786 21381 11377 7709 25708 29989 2870 3987 4726 8028 5945 4397 16983 9159 8474 6479 5533 7158 29290 12252 5097 6755 4839 5067 5067 7972 3014 4601 13279 7792 6251 3731 10099 5395 21854 7160 11650 4061 12626 4878 20397 7761 7374 20046 4171 8462 6140 6858 26453 6679 8046 4749 25438 5754 5536 23950 7407 7554 7176 6652 14623 8679 5656 7245 17883 11827 31430 17087 23715 9127 58127 34422 4807 21271 6297 6636 47653 19115 12492 3705 2682 50351 7670 25710 2462 3309 15782 2132 3146 6678 11964 19289 4285 5952 6792 22557 8070 34686 1925 5735 7865 6151 5289 8189 2938 9741 11855 4033 5683 17298 16658 7198 29539 8118 4767 21828 9070 9405 14366 8800 13847 13105 10551 32070 8975 5825 9031 4404 10475 2494 20111 6275 5850 4836 19427 6131 5303 6629 7594 1565 1799 22025 32720 5329 5074 23350 4602 6744 40099 14562 14705 13972 5808 4667 5542 6975 14660 4749 6894 4398 5376 4537 5594 7679 5052 8431 10929 13711 14408 22032 7176 7651 16603 8346 5078 5713 19828 14953 18960 4844 3620 21158 5369 15576 13104 10692 17211 5101 5436 2890 10666 9681 5148 2842 11147 6102 17525 7893 4077 964 28169 15790 5542 4749 4890 23218 24676 24409 21481 17176 6895 7719 5711 7780 4631 7980 6131 1139 8593 4300 3879 6192 13662 27611 16489 4756 8068 23883 6617 7913 23969 5847 5131 6186 10258 6447 5262 11952
2021-03-06 2828 4898 8384 7960 9228 9608 11350 3760 23040 29710 17410 4159 17430 7928 7615 8061 13140 21890 97460 6702 17360 8995 5725 24640 4543 24840 6861 45580 10620 6403 27720 6821 14120 29840 5814 23950 6061 8986 6826 9624 16550 13580 5429 13760 6886 9829 8130 8173 15260 11830 12470 3647 8864 20080 20900 5925 4734 4133 7493 11020 3054 5151 13770 2508 36480 22740 2681 7730 30360 8253 7050 10120 4051 19430 2820 21410 11430 7721 25800 30010 2875 3996 4744 8036 5955 4408 17020 9208 8510 6493 5546 7173 29320 12270 5099 6776 4845 5076 5116 7986 3019 4612 13330 7844 6260 3736 10110 5408 21870 7168 11670 4063 12680 4890 20400 7770 7389 20070 4176 8480 6157 6869 26460 6693 8055 4769 25450 5765 5552 23960 7442 7577 7211 6660 14640 8691 5670 7274 17930 11840 31490 17090 23730 9141 58450 34490 4822 21290 6323 6648 47760 19130 12490 3708 2702 50440 7729 25720 2466 3319 15800 2140 3151 6708 11990 19320 4290 5975 6809 22590 8085 34690 1927 5743 7891 6156 5301 8210 2938 9753 11880 4046 5707 17340 16690 7207 29560 8125 4777 21850 9082 9416 14480 8817 13870 13160 10590 32090 9006 5845 9040 4412 10480 2499 20190 6294 5859 4846 19500 6160 5308 6645 7601 1569 1807 22040 32750 5335 5092 23420 4610 6750 40140 14590 14740 13990 5827 4673 5552 6999 14680 4780 6905 4402 5383 4542 5601 7698 5063 8481 10950 13750 14420 22040 7188 7659 16640 8358 5088 5724 19860 14990 19000 4867 3628 21210 5375 15590 13130 10720 17230 5143 5447 2894 10670 9716 5157 2846 11160 6116 17540 7910 4082 965 28190 15810 5559 4751 4900 23280 24770 24430 21530 17180 6910 7731 5727 7785 4643 7980 6153 1140 8609 4313 3883 6212 13690 27640 16510 4761 8078 23970 6628 7925 24000 5858 5156 6195 10280 6462 5284 11970
2021-03-07 2838 4938 8408 7966 9243 9623 11360 3773 23070 29720 17490 4161 17440 7932 7657 8075 13150 21910 97600 6737 17400 9007 5764 24680 4563 24880 6870 45730 10640 6438 27740 6831 14140 29910 5819 23990 6086 9005 6852 9638 16570 13590 5432 13790 6906 9840 8134 8182 15270 11910 12510 3659 8875 20140 21000 5938 4744 4152 7507 11060 3068 5157 13800 2518 36550 22770 2687 7743 30380 8273 7074 10140 4077 19460 2851 21450 11480 7738 25860 30020 2891 4003 4753 8043 5969 4444 17110 9245 8536 6499 5555 7194 29360 12290 5106 6826 4866 5081 5146 7998 3033 4631 13360 7880 6267 3738 10130 5414 21910 7176 11690 4073 12700 4921 20410 7794 7422 20120 4191 8511 6167 6893 26480 6742 8064 4784 25490 5779 5561 23980 7464 7591 7230 6679 14660 8701 5689 7293 17970 11850 31550 17110 23750 9154 58690 34540 4834 21320 6346 6670 47810 19160 12500 3721 2717 50480 7768 25740 2481 3330 15820 2157 3160 6725 12010 19340 4300 5988 6870 22650 8109 34710 1932 5749 7919 6165 5342 8233 2938 9767 11920 4079 5756 17370 16770 7222 29600 8137 4798 21870 9095 9447 14550 8832 13880 13210 10630 32120 9024 5880 9042 4426 10480 2515 20240 6305 5879 4851 19560 6206 5320 6691 7611 1577 1823 22060 32780 5349 5104 23470 4630 6764 40190 14600 14760 14010 5839 4687 5569 7028 14690 4806 6917 4410 5404 4557 5620 7738 5072 8515 11000 13770 14430 22060 7215 7680 16660 8400 5098 5753 19900 15010 19070 4883 3645 21250 5395 15640 13150 10770 17250 5167 5461 2908 10680 9780 5161 2856 11180 6143 17560 7921 4087 966 28230 15820 5568 4753 4919 23350 24830 24460 21560 17180 6940 7750 5737 7792 4686 7983 6167 1141 8622 4338 3892 6226 13710 27670 16510 4768 8099 24030 6661 7948 24020 5891 5167 6202 10340 6465 5301 12000
2021-03-08 2844 4964 8438 7981 9274 9637 11380 3782 23090 29740 17550 4166 17470 7936 7689 8086 13170 21920 97790 6764 17440 9026 5790 24740 4583 24910 6881 45890 10650 6463 27750 6843 14160 29970 5823 24020 6104 9018 6880 9658 16600 13630 5435 13810 6922 9850 8141 8189 15280 11970 12540 3668 8882 20200 21070 5956 4751 4165 7526 11090 3077 5169 13840 2524 36620 22800 2692 7754 30410 8290 7109 10160 4094 19480 2881 21520 11520 7750 25930 30050 2903 4011 4765 8050 5981 4468 17170 9281 8556 6505 5562 7212 29390 12290 5110 6862 4879 5088 5179 8008 3042 4646 13400 7913 6277 3743 10150 5417 21930 7184 11700 4079 12720 4943 20420 7810 7446 20150 4202 8535 6178 6910 26490 6774 8068 4803 25520 5791 5570 24000 7496 7608 7248 6690 14670 8710 5705 7314 18030 11850 31620 17120 23760 9170 58930 34630 4845 21340 6369 6687 47860 19180 12500 3729 2735 50540 7809 25750 2491 3342 15840 2169 3167 6738 12040 19370 4307 6001 6910 22690 8128 34720 1936 5759 7945 6171 5368 8254 2938 9781 11950 4103 5792 17410 16830 7234 29640 8157 4814 21900 9098 9468 14620 8851 13890 13260 10660 32140 9050 5908 9044 4438 10480 2526 20300 6315 5893 4856 19650 6241 5329 6723 7619 1583 1834 22090 32840 5359 5119 23520 4643 6774 40250 14630 14770 14030 5848 4697 5581 7065 14710 4839 6928 4415 5418 4567 5633 7767 5090 8545 11030 13790 14440 22070 7234 7694 16690 8427 5118 5773 19940 15050 19130 4899 3658 21310 5408 15670 13170 10800 17290 5195 5472 2917 10710 9826 5167 2862 11200 6163 17570 7927 4093 967 28250 15840 5578 4756 4933 23420 24890 24480 21600 17200 6962 7764 5748 7797 4715 7990 6180 1142 8641 4357 3899 6242 13730 27720 16550 4774 8115 24090 6683 7965 24060 5912 5186 6210 10390 6470 5323 12030
2021-03-09 2848 4983 8458 8001 9282 9643 11390 3789 23110 29750 17600 4171 17480 7941 7716 8093 13170 21940 97970 6785 17470 9040 5810 24780 4602 24930 6891 46040 10660 6481 27770 6852 14180 30020 5831 24040 6118 9027 6904 9671 16620 13680 5439 13830 6939 9855 8146 8196 15290 12010 12560 3675 8887 20260 21120 5970 4758 4174 7536 11110 3084 5188 13860 2529 36690 22850 2696 7765 30430 8306 7123 10170 4108 19520 2908 21560 11540 7761 25990 30080 2911 4019 4769 8057 5992 4486 17220 9305 8575 6506 5579 7226 29420 12300 5113 6890 4889 5102 5209 8015 3049 4659 13420 7933 6284 3752 10160 5423 21950 7192 11710 4084 12740 4960 20420 7822 7465 20180 4209 8556 6186 6924 26500 6798 8077 4817 25540 5802 5576 24030 7532 7624 7263 6697 14680 8718 5718 7329 18090 11860 31690 17120 23780 9180 59150 34720 4852 21360 6388 6702 47930 19200 12510 3734 2749 50610 7830 25770 2498 3348 15850 2178 3172 6751 12050 19400 4313 6008 6940 22730 8145 34730 1938 5767 7971 6178 5388 8274 2942 9798 11980 4121 5823 17440 16870 7244 29660 8174 4826 21920 9104 9483 14690 8870 13900 13300 10690 32160 9065 5931 9047 4447 10490 2534 20350 6323 5905 4859 19720 6270 5335 6747 7626 1588 1843 22120 32890 5366 5130 23570 4654 6781 40310 14650 14800 14050 5852 4705 5591 7088 14730 4859 6938 4420 5428 4575 5644 7791 5101 8573 11060 13810 14440 22080 7249 7705 16720 8447 5129 5788 19970 15070 19180 4913 3668 21350 5417 15700 13180 10840 17340 5211 5481 2923 10740 9863 5170 2868 11210 6178 17580 7933 4103 969 28280 15850 5584 4757 4944 23500 24940 24500 21620 17210 6980 7776 5754 7801 4736 7995 6187 1143 8655 4374 3904 6260 13750 27760 16560 4778 8129 24120 6699 7979 24090 5928 5198 6218 10420 6480 5334 12050
2021-03-10 2852 5000 8474 8016 9297 9653 11420 3794 23130 29760 17660 4177 17500 7945 7741 8104 13190 21950 98150 6806 17490 9055 5828 24830 4617 24950 6898 46160 10670 6499 27790 6860 14200 30060 5833 24060 6130 9036 6924 9683 16650 13710 5442 13850 6956 9866 8149 8202 15300 12060 12580 3683 8892 20300 21170 5990 4770 4182 7545 11130 3090 5199 13890 2533 36760 22910 2700 7775 30450 8321 7144 10190 4120 19550 2935 21620 11580 7771 26050 30120 2918 4028 4773 8063 6002 4503 17260 9337 8586 6506 5594 7240 29440 12320 5115 6917 4898 5118 5232 8022 3055 4671 13450 7953 6289 3765 10180 5431 21970 7199 11730 4088 12760 4976 20430 7833 7483 20210 4216 8576 6191 6936 26500 6819 8082 4826 25560 5813 5579 24070 7559 7636 7276 6704 14700 8725 5732 7351 18160 11870 31750 17130 23790 9191 59370 34810 4860 21370 6400 6716 47970 19220 12510 3739 2756 50670 7859 25780 2505 3358 15870 2188 3177 6763 12070 19420 4318 6018 6966 22760 8161 34740 1941 5774 7996 6181 5406 8295 2948 9811 12000 4138 5852 17470 16910 7254 29680 8186 4839 21940 9113 9497 14760 8882 13900 13340 10710 32180 9085 5953 9051 4455 10500 2542 20400 6330 5915 4861 19790 6298 5341 6770 7632 1593 1852 22130 32940 5374 5141 23620 4664 6788 40410 14670 14820 14080 5857 4712 5601 7110 14730 4881 6949 4424 5437 4582 5653 7814 5114 8602 11090 13830 14450 22090 7264 7716 16750 8465 5139 5802 20000 15120 19230 4930 3678 21380 5425 15720 13190 10870 17360 5231 5490 2929 10760 9897 5179 2873 11220 6193 17590 7939 4111 972 28300 15880 5591 4759 4954 23550 24980 24520 21650 17230 6997 7788 5763 7805 4755 8001 6199 1144 8668 4389 3909 6271 13760 27820 16560 4783 8141 24150 6714 7991 24120 5943 5213 6225 10450 6484 5356 12060
2021-03-11 2855 5014 8481 8030 9297 9658 11430 3799 23150 29770 17710 4179 17520 7950 7764 8109 13190 21960 98290 6824 17510 9077 5842 24870 4624 24960 6902 46270 10670 6513 27790 6868 14210 30100 5833 24080 6141 9042 6932 9693 16660 13720 5445 13860 6966 9873 8149 8207 15310 12090 12600 3689 8896 20340 21220 6002 4775 4188 7554 11160 3094 5209 13910 2536 36820 22940 2704 7784 30470 8335 7154 10200 4130 19580 2962 21660 11610 7780 26080 30130 2924 4037 4778 8070 6012 4516 17310 9356 8591 6506 5602 7253 29460 12320 5117 6939 4905 5122 5249 8028 3060 4683 13460 7974 6294 3767 10190 5431 21990 7207 11740 4092 12770 4990 20430 7842 7498 20230 4222 8595 6195 6947 26510 6835 8087 4834 25570 5823 5584 24090 7574 7653 7286 6709 14710 8732 5745 7363 18210 11880 31810 17130 23800 9199 59560 34870 4862 21390 6406 6729 48020 19240 12510 3743 2767 50720 7872 25790 2510 3364 15880 2195 3182 6769 12090 19440 4323 6025 6987 22800 8176 34750 1943 5780 8022 6181 5420 8315 2948 9822 12030 4152 5877 17500 16950 7262 29700 8197 4850 21960 9113 9509 14790 8894 13910 13360 10730 32200 9101 5973 9051 4463 10500 2547 20440 6335 5924 4865 19830 6324 5346 6788 7638 1597 1859 22130 32970 5380 5149 23650 4672 6794 40460 14690 14830 14090 5858 4718 5610 7123 14740 4898 6958 4427 5445 4588 5661 7834 5123 8621 11110 13850 14460 22100 7276 7724 16770 8480 5149 5813 20030 15150 19270 4937 3686 21410 5432 15740 13200 10900 17390 5240 5498 2934 10770 9927 5179 2877 11230 6207 17600 7943 4118 972 28320 15890 5591 4761 4963 23620 25000 24540 21670 17240 7012 7799 5767 7808 4770 8009 6205 1144 8679 4403 3914 6284 13770 27860 16560 4787 8153 24170 6726 8003 24140 5955 5218 6233 10480 6484 5369 12080
2021-03-12 2857 5026 8493 8044 9310 9664 11440 3803 23170 29780 17770 4182 17530 7954 7786 8117 13200 21970 98430 6841 17540 9090 5856 24910 4634 24990 6909 46370 10680 6527 27800 6876 14220 30130 5835 24100 6151 9048 6944 9701 16690 13740 5448 13870 6978 9878 8153 8213 15320 12130 12620 3696 8899 20360 21250 6012 4779 4193 7565 11180 3098 5217 13920 2539 36880 22970 2708 7790 30490 8349 7173 10210 4140 19600 2988 21690 11630 7789 26120 30160 2930 4045 4780 8077 6022 4529 17340 9373 8603 6510 5612 7265 29480 12330 5119 6961 4912 5130 5264 8032 3064 4693 13480 7990 6296 3772 10200 5432 22010 7214 11750 4095 12780 5002 20440 7851 7512 20260 4227 8613 6201 6958 26520 6850 8094 4846 25590 5833 5587 24110 7592 7665 7293 6713 14720 8739 5757 7373 18250 11890 31870 17140 23810 9209 59670 34930 4867 21400 6417 6741 48050 19250 12520 3746 2772 50790 7889 25800 2515 3374 15900 2203 3186 6777 12110 19470 4328 6033 7006 22830 8191 34760 1944 5792 8047 6184 5433 8334 2950 9833 12060 4165 5902 17520 16980 7271 29720 8212 4860 21980 9115 9519 14820 8900 13930 13390 10750 32220 9113 5993 9056 4471 10510 2553 20460 6340 5933 4867 19880 6348 5350 6805 7644 1601 1866 22170 33010 5386 5155 23670 4680 6799 40510 14710 14850 14100 5862 4723 5618 7147 14750 4917 6968 4430 5452 4593 5668 7853 5140 8632 11130 13870 14470 22120 7288 7732 16800 8493 5154 5824 20070 15170 19310 4946 3695 21440 5438 15760 13210 10920 17420 5248 5505 2938 10780 9955 5185 2881 11250 6219 17610 7946 4123 972 28330 15910 5594 4762 4972 23680 25030 24560 21680 17270 7027 7809 5772 7811 4784 8017 6215 1145 8693 4416 3918 6294 13790 27900 16590 4791 8163 24200 6737 8013 24160 5966 5222 6241 10500 6489 5389 12100

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-06 to 2021-03-12

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-05 2825 4887 8354 7950 9200 9587 11330 3756 23012 29699 17359 4151 17405 7925 7593 8039 13125 21868 97273 6685 17309 8977 5713 24590 4515 24782 6846 45380 10611 6389 27703 6808 14078 29724 5804 23925 6051 8979 6780 9608 16536 13544 5424 13743 6856 9824 8120 8166 15255 11794 12444 3639 8861 20003 20859 5914 4726 4128 7468 10992 3050 5139 13723 2504 36377 22724 2677 7702 30324 8238 7015 10099 4042 19414 2786 21381 11377 7709 25708 29989 2870 3987 4726 8028 5945 4397 16983 9159 8474 6479 5533 7158 29290 12252 5097 6755 4839 5067 5067 7972 3014 4601 13279 7792 6251 3731 10099 5395 21854 7160 11650 4061 12626 4878 20397 7761 7374 20046 4171 8462 6140 6858 26453 6679 8046 4749 25438 5754 5536 23950 7407 7554 7176 6652 14623 8679 5656 7245 17883 11827 31430 17087 23715 9127 58127 34422 4807 21271 6297 6636 47653 19115 12492 3705 2682 50351 7670 25710 2462 3309 15782 2132 3146 6678 11964 19289 4285 5952 6792 22557 8070 34686 1925 5735 7865 6151 5289 8189 2938 9741 11855 4033 5683 17298 16658 7198 29539 8118 4767 21828 9070 9405 14366 8800 13847 13105 10551 32070 8975 5825 9031 4404 10475 2494 20111 6275 5850 4836 19427 6131 5303 6629 7594 1565 1799 22025 32720 5329 5074 23350 4602 6744 40099 14562 14705 13972 5808 4667 5542 6975 14660 4749 6894 4398 5376 4537 5594 7679 5052 8431 10929 13711 14408 22032 7176 7651 16603 8346 5078 5713 19828 14953 18960 4844 3620 21158 5369 15576 13104 10692 17211 5101 5436 2890 10666 9681 5148 2842 11147 6102 17525 7893 4077 964 28169 15790 5542 4749 4890 23218 24676 24409 21481 17176 6895 7719 5711 7780 4631 7980 6131 1139 8593 4300 3879 6192 13662 27611 16489 4756 8068 23883 6617 7913 23969 5847 5131 6186 10258 6447 5262 11952
2021-03-06 2827 4896 8360 7963 9212 9592 11340 3760 23020 29710 17410 4154 17420 7937 7612 8044 13140 21880 97380 6701 17330 8990 5722 24630 4525 24800 6851 45480 10620 6400 27720 6818 14090 29750 5807 23940 6059 8984 6794 9614 16560 13560 5427 13760 6863 9828 8123 8170 15270 11820 12450 3643 8867 20030 20890 5924 4726 4132 7478 11010 3056 5151 13730 2507 36430 22740 2680 7711 30340 8252 7029 10110 4051 19440 2812 21410 11390 7717 25740 30010 2875 3995 4732 8035 5954 4404 17010 9174 8485 6481 5538 7165 29310 12260 5101 6771 4845 5072 5077 7976 3017 4612 13300 7811 6254 3733 10110 5398 21870 7166 11660 4067 12640 4889 20410 7768 7383 20070 4174 8480 6144 6868 26470 6678 8050 4760 25470 5764 5538 23970 7424 7567 7185 6655 14630 8682 5667 7252 17930 11840 31470 17100 23730 9132 58220 34450 4814 21280 6307 6647 47690 19150 12490 3708 2688 50400 7684 25720 2466 3317 15790 2135 3151 6685 11980 19310 4288 5960 6807 22600 8080 34710 1927 5740 7892 6155 5300 8209 2936 9751 11880 4046 5703 17320 16680 7202 29590 8125 4777 21850 9072 9414 14400 8807 13860 13130 10560 32090 8990 5845 9035 4414 10480 2499 20140 6281 5858 4837 19460 6147 5306 6646 7598 1569 1803 22040 32740 5334 5080 23380 4611 6749 40140 14580 14720 13980 5812 4672 5547 6994 14670 4766 6899 4401 5382 4541 5600 7696 5061 8437 10950 13730 14420 22040 7182 7657 16620 8354 5084 5723 19850 14970 18990 4849 3626 21180 5372 15590 13110 10710 17240 5109 5441 2894 10670 9694 5157 2847 11160 6107 17540 7896 4082 964 28190 15800 5543 4751 4896 23270 24710 24420 21500 17200 6907 7729 5716 7781 4637 7985 6134 1140 8606 4313 3882 6199 13680 27620 16500 4760 8078 23900 6624 7919 23980 5855 5138 6191 10270 6452 5279 11970
2021-03-07 2831 4913 8373 7973 9225 9598 11350 3767 23040 29730 17460 4157 17430 7947 7635 8053 13160 21890 97490 6719 17350 9001 5738 24660 4541 24810 6858 45600 10630 6411 27740 6826 14110 29780 5811 23960 6069 8992 6809 9624 16590 13580 5435 13770 6876 9835 8128 8175 15290 11860 12460 3648 8875 20060 20940 5935 4731 4140 7486 11040 3067 5162 13740 2511 36490 22780 2684 7720 30370 8267 7046 10120 4062 19460 2823 21430 11410 7729 25780 30030 2883 4000 4736 8040 5966 4418 17050 9194 8498 6485 5546 7171 29320 12270 5106 6795 4854 5078 5092 7982 3020 4623 13320 7835 6258 3735 10120 5405 21890 7171 11660 4075 12660 4904 20420 7779 7397 20090 4179 8499 6150 6881 26490 6693 8057 4771 25510 5777 5541 23990 7440 7580 7194 6661 14640 8687 5675 7259 17970 11840 31530 17120 23740 9137 58330 34500 4821 21290 6320 6659 47730 19190 12500 3713 2698 50460 7705 25740 2473 3324 15810 2141 3156 6695 11990 19350 4292 5967 6830 22630 8095 34730 1929 5742 7916 6162 5319 8230 2937 9761 11900 4064 5729 17340 16710 7207 29660 8136 4791 21870 9087 9425 14440 8818 13880 13170 10580 32110 9000 5867 9040 4423 10490 2506 20170 6288 5870 4839 19510 6166 5311 6666 7602 1574 1807 22070 32760 5339 5089 23400 4620 6755 40200 14590 14740 13990 5818 4678 5557 7018 14680 4790 6909 4405 5390 4549 5608 7718 5069 8445 10970 13750 14430 22050 7191 7666 16630 8370 5091 5735 19890 14990 19020 4859 3633 21220 5380 15610 13130 10740 17260 5122 5445 2897 10690 9711 5167 2851 11170 6116 17550 7905 4086 966 28200 15810 5547 4753 4906 23330 24750 24440 21520 17210 6923 7740 5721 7785 4653 7991 6144 1141 8616 4330 3886 6204 13690 27650 16520 4762 8087 23930 6637 7933 24000 5868 5149 6200 10300 6458 5295 11980
2021-03-08 2835 4927 8393 7989 9260 9607 11370 3772 23060 29750 17510 4162 17450 7957 7657 8061 13180 21890 97640 6737 17370 9013 5753 24720 4556 24830 6867 45720 10650 6426 27760 6833 14120 29820 5817 23970 6081 8999 6828 9639 16620 13610 5443 13780 6885 9842 8135 8181 15310 11890 12470 3653 8882 20110 20980 5948 4733 4146 7497 11060 3076 5177 13750 2515 36550 22820 2688 7728 30400 8283 7070 10130 4074 19490 2833 21490 11430 7739 25830 30070 2889 4009 4744 8046 5977 4432 17080 9216 8510 6490 5553 7177 29340 12280 5110 6818 4861 5085 5118 7988 3026 4634 13350 7857 6263 3740 10130 5412 21910 7175 11670 4081 12670 4918 20420 7788 7413 20100 4185 8518 6158 6892 26500 6712 8060 4782 25540 5790 5545 24010 7464 7595 7206 6665 14650 8692 5683 7275 18020 11850 31600 17130 23760 9149 58480 34580 4827 21300 6335 6670 47770 19220 12510 3717 2713 50530 7729 25760 2479 3334 15820 2145 3160 6703 12020 19370 4296 5975 6852 22660 8110 34760 1931 5746 7943 6169 5334 8251 2938 9772 11930 4079 5755 17370 16740 7212 29720 8157 4803 21900 9097 9436 14480 8831 13890 13200 10590 32130 9015 5887 9045 4430 10500 2512 20230 6296 5880 4844 19580 6182 5314 6684 7607 1580 1810 22120 32820 5346 5100 23430 4628 6761 40270 14620 14750 14010 5825 4684 5564 7051 14700 4817 6924 4410 5398 4555 5617 7739 5082 8456 11000 13780 14440 22060 7199 7674 16650 8384 5105 5746 19930 15020 19060 4871 3644 21260 5388 15630 13140 10770 17300 5140 5449 2902 10710 9725 5175 2854 11180 6123 17560 7910 4090 967 28220 15820 5554 4755 4914 23390 24790 24450 21550 17230 6939 7750 5726 7788 4667 7998 6154 1142 8634 4345 3890 6215 13710 27690 16550 4764 8097 23970 6649 7952 24020 5885 5164 6212 10330 6466 5314 12000
2021-03-09 2837 4940 8408 8008 9274 9612 11380 3776 23080 29770 17570 4165 17460 7967 7679 8068 13200 21900 97780 6753 17400 9025 5766 24760 4572 24850 6873 45850 10660 6439 27790 6840 14130 29860 5825 23990 6090 9005 6846 9651 16640 13640 5449 13790 6896 9847 8141 8186 15330 11920 12480 3657 8887 20150 21020 5959 4737 4151 7505 11080 3084 5192 13760 2518 36610 22860 2691 7740 30420 8297 7084 10130 4083 19530 2843 21520 11450 7749 25870 30110 2895 4020 4746 8052 5987 4446 17110 9234 8522 6493 5565 7183 29360 12290 5115 6842 4867 5094 5145 7994 3030 4645 13370 7875 6268 3746 10140 5419 21920 7179 11680 4087 12690 4930 20430 7795 7427 20120 4190 8536 6165 6901 26520 6729 8066 4792 25580 5802 5549 24030 7490 7611 7217 6668 14660 8696 5690 7284 18070 11850 31670 17140 23780 9154 58610 34660 4832 21310 6348 6681 47820 19260 12510 3720 2726 50600 7746 25770 2484 3340 15830 2149 3165 6711 12040 19400 4300 5982 6869 22690 8126 34780 1933 5750 7968 6175 5347 8270 2942 9783 11960 4092 5779 17400 16770 7217 29780 8173 4814 21920 9107 9443 14540 8846 13910 13230 10600 32150 9027 5906 9052 4437 10510 2518 20270 6302 5889 4846 19640 6197 5318 6699 7611 1584 1813 22160 32860 5352 5108 23450 4636 6766 40340 14640 14770 14020 5828 4690 5572 7073 14710 4837 6940 4413 5404 4561 5622 7760 5092 8467 11020 13800 14450 22070 7207 7680 16680 8396 5115 5756 19970 15040 19090 4883 3654 21290 5393 15650 13150 10790 17340 5151 5454 2904 10730 9738 5182 2858 11190 6131 17570 7916 4095 968 28230 15830 5558 4759 4921 23450 24830 24470 21570 17250 6953 7760 5729 7791 4679 8006 6160 1143 8644 4359 3894 6230 13720 27720 16570 4766 8107 24000 6658 7962 24040 5897 5176 6224 10350 6476 5327 12020
2021-03-10 2840 4955 8423 8022 9299 9621 11400 3780 23090 29800 17620 4168 17480 7975 7704 8078 13220 21910 97950 6772 17420 9036 5782 24800 4587 24870 6878 45970 10670 6451 27820 6846 14150 29900 5832 24000 6098 9011 6864 9661 16680 13670 5456 13800 6908 9856 8144 8190 15350 11960 12490 3662 8893 20190 21070 5971 4744 4156 7513 11100 3093 5205 13770 2521 36670 22910 2694 7749 30450 8310 7104 10140 4093 19560 2853 21580 11480 7759 25900 30160 2900 4026 4749 8057 5998 4456 17150 9262 8533 6496 5577 7188 29370 12300 5119 6865 4872 5105 5170 8000 3035 4655 13390 7895 6272 3754 10150 5429 21940 7182 11690 4092 12700 4941 20440 7805 7441 20130 4195 8555 6170 6910 26530 6748 8071 4800 25610 5815 5551 24060 7513 7624 7228 6671 14670 8702 5697 7300 18130 11860 31750 17160 23790 9162 58750 34750 4837 21320 6361 6698 47860 19290 12520 3723 2734 50670 7770 25790 2488 3349 15850 2152 3169 6721 12060 19430 4304 5990 6886 22720 8140 34800 1935 5754 7992 6180 5359 8290 2947 9793 11990 4105 5807 17420 16800 7222 29840 8183 4825 21960 9123 9456 14610 8858 13930 13270 10620 32170 9040 5924 9059 4443 10520 2523 20320 6310 5898 4850 19710 6211 5320 6715 7614 1589 1816 22190 32900 5356 5115 23480 4643 6770 40420 14670 14780 14040 5834 4695 5578 7095 14720 4860 6950 4416 5411 4566 5630 7777 5104 8481 11040 13820 14460 22080 7214 7685 16700 8410 5123 5766 20010 15080 19130 4899 3659 21320 5398 15670 13160 10820 17360 5170 5458 2907 10750 9750 5190 2860 11200 6137 17590 7923 4101 970 28250 15850 5564 4760 4928 23500 24860 24480 21590 17270 6966 7769 5734 7795 4694 8016 6169 1143 8654 4372 3898 6241 13730 27760 16590 4768 8118 24030 6668 7973 24050 5907 5190 6241 10370 6484 5347 12030
2021-03-11 2842 4966 8438 8037 9325 9629 11420 3783 23110 29820 17680 4173 17500 7985 7728 8087 13230 21910 98090 6787 17450 9051 5794 24850 4600 24880 6886 46100 10680 6460 27850 6852 14170 29940 5835 24010 6104 9016 6881 9675 16700 13690 5462 13810 6919 9863 8152 8196 15360 11990 12490 3667 8902 20240 21100 5982 4749 4163 7522 11120 3102 5217 13790 2523 36730 22960 2697 7763 30470 8324 7122 10150 4102 19590 2863 21610 11510 7768 25940 30190 2905 4033 4754 8063 6008 4468 17180 9287 8542 6501 5590 7194 29390 12310 5124 6884 4878 5114 5195 8007 3039 4665 13410 7913 6276 3759 10160 5433 21950 7185 11690 4098 12710 4952 20450 7812 7457 20150 4199 8573 6177 6919 26550 6763 8075 4811 25640 5826 5555 24080 7535 7641 7241 6673 14680 8707 5704 7316 18180 11860 31810 17170 23800 9168 58920 34830 4841 21330 6370 6711 47910 19320 12530 3726 2747 50730 7792 25810 2493 3357 15860 2156 3173 6728 12090 19450 4307 5999 6902 22750 8155 34830 1936 5758 8016 6185 5370 8311 2949 9806 12010 4117 5826 17450 16840 7227 29890 8193 4835 21980 9138 9464 14650 8871 13940 13300 10630 32190 9053 5942 9064 4450 10520 2528 20370 6318 5906 4857 19760 6225 5323 6729 7618 1593 1818 22220 32930 5361 5122 23500 4650 6775 40510 14690 14800 14060 5841 4700 5589 7113 14740 4883 6969 4420 5418 4572 5640 7794 5114 8498 11060 13850 14470 22090 7221 7691 16720 8426 5131 5775 20040 15110 19170 4910 3668 21350 5406 15680 13180 10850 17400 5187 5462 2909 10760 9763 5196 2865 11210 6144 17600 7930 4107 971 28260 15860 5569 4762 4937 23550 24900 24500 21610 17290 6978 7778 5737 7801 4704 8028 6183 1144 8662 4385 3901 6255 13750 27800 16610 4769 8126 24070 6683 7982 24070 5919 5201 6250 10400 6493 5364 12050
2021-03-12 2845 4975 8453 8046 9344 9637 11430 3787 23120 29840 17730 4176 17510 7994 7746 8096 13250 21920 98230 6802 17480 9064 5806 24880 4615 24900 6893 46210 10700 6472 27890 6858 14180 29990 5841 24020 6111 9021 6898 9686 16720 13720 5470 13820 6931 9868 8156 8201 15390 12010 12500 3671 8907 20280 21130 5993 4753 4167 7528 11140 3110 5227 13800 2526 36790 22990 2701 7772 30490 8337 7142 10160 4110 19610 2873 21630 11530 7777 25980 30230 2910 4040 4758 8068 6018 4479 17200 9309 8556 6507 5600 7199 29410 12320 5127 6905 4883 5121 5218 8014 3043 4677 13440 7934 6279 3762 10170 5442 21960 7189 11700 4103 12730 4963 20460 7819 7472 20160 4205 8589 6184 6928 26560 6782 8080 4820 25670 5837 5558 24100 7555 7656 7253 6676 14690 8713 5711 7331 18220 11870 31870 17190 23820 9171 59030 34900 4846 21340 6384 6720 47950 19340 12530 3729 2756 50800 7815 25820 2497 3365 15870 2159 3176 6738 12110 19480 4311 6007 6913 22780 8169 34850 1938 5763 8043 6192 5381 8332 2954 9813 12040 4128 5849 17470 16870 7232 29950 8205 4845 22010 9150 9471 14680 8882 13960 13330 10640 32210 9065 5960 9071 4456 10540 2532 20410 6324 5914 4862 19810 6239 5326 6743 7622 1598 1820 22270 32950 5366 5128 23520 4657 6779 40580 14710 14810 14070 5848 4705 5597 7135 14750 4905 6980 4423 5423 4577 5648 7812 5127 8507 11080 13870 14470 22100 7228 7697 16750 8436 5138 5784 20080 15130 19200 4922 3676 21380 5411 15700 13190 10880 17420 5199 5465 2913 10770 9774 5203 2867 11220 6151 17610 7937 4110 972 28280 15870 5576 4763 4943 23610 24940 24510 21630 17310 6990 7787 5741 7804 4717 8038 6194 1145 8667 4399 3904 6266 13760 27820 16640 4771 8137 24110 6691 7995 24080 5928 5212 6258 10410 6503 5381 12070

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.