COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-09

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-30	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	12-29	2021-01-07	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-02-25	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-23	2021-01-06	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-30	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-31	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-05	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	2021-01-03	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-23	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-30	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	78	477	588	191	59	326	131	108	108	232	430	1252	74	158	66	58	158	49	485	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	317	107	505	93	188	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	302	90	265	52	200	250	285	60	90	71	68	244	53	95	284	35	367	289	38	184	599	151	69	189	72	246	43	249	187	118	323	539	60	53	76	160	110	52	224	102	165	146	108	54	143	590	271	95	74	54	89	73	125	53	38	122	80	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	199	57	398	176	103	339	101	109	135	120	478	100	156	47	445	57	115	450	139	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	311	429	107	379	287	104	444	72	113	730	272	200	89	37	377	90	420	29	46	297	49	62	148	119	362	79	105	63	123	85	727	23	50	159	105	51	109	59	124	122	41	55	277	158	122	225	90	44	125	127	109	154	118	201	104	174	621	83	81	174	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	36	26	163	451	42	82	405	65	130	244	210	245	169	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	83	95	79	110	80	67	102	113	245	294	456	131	151	219	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	202	105	320	189	181	125	55	108	46	140	328	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	558	153	92	107	85	258	324	452	387	229	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	264	83	149	432	106	139	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	72	69	72	78	72	91	78	76	73	76	147	72	76	71	57	69	72	77	70	72	72	70	61	67	114	71	78	131	77	72	72	86	72	71	74	78	73	77	69	69	72	126	78	73	74	91	72	78	78	64	77	70	73	77	78	66	78	78	69	73	72	71	70	77	77	69	71	72	72	78	74	78	78	66	12	146	72	92	73	72	75	70	75	78	127	73	129	72	70	71	78	74	77	74	85	76	62	78	76	71	81	71	64	72	73	78	72	77	78	72	78	72	77	78	78	78	77	72	72	77	77	86	72	86	71	78	70	72	71	75	74	78	67	71	72	77	71	71	74	132	78	72	72	70	69	72	71	78	72	72	100	72	72	77	78	64	69	65	77	125	70	78	78	78	77	74	77	73	71	70	65	125	71	91	72	135	73	78	125	78	69	126	78	64	72	78	69	70	78	72	71	72	72	68	62	70	66	70	78	62	63	77	71	78	72	71	86	68	86	143	69	72	72	74	42	71	70	70	65	78	72	70	75	72	69	74	72	78	77	78	71	73	74	64	77	120	75	78	79	65	71	72	77	78	85	71	73	78	65	74	129	77	71	78	128	78	76	77	72	78	92	74	71	69	76	69	64	72	78	76	78	78	87	76	69	78	77	71	77	73	78	132	71	72	81	74	78	78	77	78	72	74	79	86	71	92	77	72	72	70	70	77	77	71	72	77	72	67	71	69	78	69	69	71
Last total	2830	4920	8394	8004	9248	9608	11389	3777	23080	29790	17558	4158	17460	7957	7688	8069	13166	21915	97783	6727	17422	9013	5748	24740	4570	24867	6878	45849	10638	6435	27799	6820	14124	29864	5832	23977	6068	8999	6811	9641	16611	13669	5451	13781	6888	9861	8132	8182	15341	11910	12487	3651	8886	20121	20988	5947	4736	4140	7515	11044	3061	5210	13772	2509	36575	22838	2683	7731	30415	8286	7084	10125	4072	19527	2834	21559	11430	7731	25812	30161	2879	4040	4747	8053	6011	4434	17123	9229	8521	6486	5571	2948	7182	29344	12273	5113	6810	4856	5101	5132	7989	3030	4624	13359	7834	6273	3746	10138	5414	21923	7201	11693	4092	12663	4909	20444	7792	7414	20124	4181	8525	6154	6878	26509	6702	8069	4775	25580	5805	5550	24054	7453	7591	7217	6669	14655	8696	5714	7297	18126	11888	31692	17132	23785	9158	58595	34642	4822	21319	6348	6680	47790	19224	12527	3717	2705	50626	7719	25782	2488	3342	15827	2137	3160	6694	12032	19409	4302	5982	6843	22677	8124	34782	1930	5766	7976	6166	5323	8305	2943	9788	11927	4065	5748	17384	16765	7228	29691	8155	4791	21956	9115	9443	14504	8847	13916	13233	10574	32156	9040	5907	9078	4434	10512	2506	20260	6293	5880	4839	19611	6166	5331	6666	7617	1569	1810	22192	32896	5342	5094	23446	4633	6756	40381	14634	14797	14067	5823	4679	5576	7031	14720	1593	4815	6952	4411	5389	4556	5621	7757	5110	8458	10991	13825	14452	22074	7204	7675	16684	8377	5135	5752	19979	15086	19088	4890	3646	21286	5382	15623	13134	10788	17362	5131	5452	2907	10696	9703	5176	2857	11174	6119	17589	7900	4094	966	28246	15895	5554	4763	4922	23463	24786	24485	21547	17260	6921	7738	5722	7792	4664	8013	6158	1141	8656	4345	3897	6221	13703	27793	16608	4783	8116	23968	6643	7941	24059	5878	5166	6215	10310	6474	5313	12023
Last daily increment	1	12	11	16	11	3	11	7	15	24	59	1	16	12	20	5	5	16	125	15	30	12	13	44	17	27	7	141	5	13	26	1	12	32	4	15	6	4	13	10	24	27	7	14	7	10	5	5	30	41	5	2	7	26	33	9	6	3	9	9	2	22	15	4	66	20	0	10	20	8	22	5	7	31	3	64	11	2	22	56	5	13	6	2	14	11	46	18	7	1	10	4	7	13	2	3	8	2	7	23	1	5	3	28	14	8	6	4	10	20	8	16	12	10	9	11	5	9	22	7	15	2	4	25	10	11	6	36	12	1	28	9	11	9	1	16	7	11	13	69	15	61	11	16	12	144	62	1	13	17	10	47	28	7	1	5	80	18	13	8	8	12	1	3	6	20	37	6	10	11	40	17	19	0	10	45	3	12	36	1	20	25	11	20	19	27	10	55	13	6	42	15	10	41	6	15	31	8	21	10	28	17	11	9	9	55	7	14	0	58	8	7	7	7	1	1	44	43	3	2	28	7	4	79	24	30	23	6	1	8	11	25	0	13	11	4	3	3	6	21	16	7	15	35	16	7	6	3	22	7	11	11	43	25	27	17	9	49	4	18	5	32	43	7	5	2	7	8	9	4	11	6	20	2	2	0	11	24	3	0	6	77	26	30	12	15	11	6	0	2	9	5	7	1	18	12	7	10	18	60	41	12	17	19	12	7	19	8	13	8	10	0	22	16
Last week	7	43	57	84	77	29	79	23	92	128	292	12	93	66	133	34	67	68	794	75	163	69	45	232	66	110	42	672	48	65	126	31	68	202	32	77	32	24	53	46	121	159	31	68	46	48	18	23	122	156	61	18	43	176	186	57	19	16	65	78	19	93	60	12	305	189	14	40	111	69	99	42	39	187	118	251	106	25	152	226	16	74	26	39	82	50	198	104	54	10	59	8	38	72	29	22	85	24	48	98	24	23	42	113	80	27	24	33	19	87	53	60	40	59	46	65	44	61	137	13	95	23	40	85	32	44	47	184	74	20	153	73	67	54	20	57	30	86	76	341	88	388	66	91	49	713	347	23	65	61	72	217	172	33	10	36	400	78	90	29	54	67	10	19	28	102	164	20	40	67	195	79	139	6	50	172	23	45	160	7	75	117	53	105	130	145	35	228	66	37	197	48	65	204	60	117	168	42	118	93	120	48	58	51	18	212	24	42	8	279	68	34	64	30	15	18	233	237	21	30	149	49	19	400	105	124	117	15	23	44	86	88	3	103	78	18	27	23	47	109	80	49	80	151	66	63	42	29	130	42	72	49	219	189	202	55	37	185	18	68	51	138	224	43	26	29	61	42	39	26	47	19	83	12	35	1	105	141	13	16	42	378	174	111	90	143	42	33	18	17	46	58	39	3	88	63	22	54	73	263	159	33	69	127	46	33	136	41	39	43	64	36	86	102
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-19	10-11	10-24	10-17	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	11-01	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	09-27	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-11	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-01	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-06	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-20	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-13	11-03	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		164	99	54	235		136		55					71	319					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165			55									31					32						55	75					41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65									42		52				59									360	152		86	540	254					530					611	61								73					391				51									58	68			610			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		64			43		67				237	231	84		183			435	113						66								24	71		76							118				182	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91					320				136				38		31		65	41	130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	18	61		34		27					21	82					19	33	55						9			32			16	56		18			31				13		106	70	9							53			18									15					8						17	17					11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18									11		14				21									95	19		23	154	124					58					136	19								34					55				14									16	7			70			58				19		40			25	13		12	21		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19					77				21				9		11		18	13	16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-10 to 2021-03-16

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-09	2830	4920	8394	8004	9248	9608	11389	3777	23080	29790	17558	4158	17460	7957	7688	8069	13166	21915	97783	6727	17422	9013	5748	24740	4570	24867	6878	45849	10638	6435	27799	6820	14124	29864	5832	23977	6068	8999	6811	9641	16611	13669	5451	13781	6888	9861	8132	8182	15341	11910	12487	3651	8886	20121	20988	5947	4736	4140	7515	11044	3061	5210	13772	2509	36575	22838	2683	7731	30415	8286	7084	10125	4072	19527	2834	21559	11430	7731	25812	30161	2879	4040	4747	8053	6011	4434	17123	9229	8521	6486	5571	2948	7182	29344	12273	5113	6810	4856	5101	5132	7989	3030	4624	13359	7834	6273	3746	10138	5414	21923	7201	11693	4092	12663	4909	20444	7792	7414	20124	4181	8525	6154	6878	26509	6702	8069	4775	25580	5805	5550	24054	7453	7591	7217	6669	14655	8696	5714	7297	18126	11888	31692	17132	23785	9158	58595	34642	4822	21319	6348	6680	47790	19224	12527	3717	2705	50626	7719	25782	2488	3342	15827	2137	3160	6694	12032	19409	4302	5982	6843	22677	8124	34782	1930	5766	7976	6166	5323	8305	2943	9788	11927	4065	5748	17384	16765	7228	29691	8155	4791	21956	9115	9443	14504	8847	13916	13233	10574	32156	9040	5907	9078	4434	10512	2506	20260	6293	5880	4839	19611	6166	5331	6666	7617	1569	1810	22192	32896	5342	5094	23446	4633	6756	40381	14634	14797	14067	5823	4679	5576	7031	14720	4815	6952	4411	5389	4556	5621	7757	5110	8458	10991	13825	14452	22074	7204	7675	16684	8377	5135	5752	19979	15086	19088	4890	3646	21286	5382	15623	13134	10788	17362	5131	5452	2907	10696	9703	5176	2857	11174	6119	17589	7900	4094	28246	15895	5554	4763	4922	23463	24786	24485	21547	17260	6921	7738	5722	7792	4664	8013	6158	8656	4345	3897	6221	13703	27793	16608	4783	8116	23968	6643	7941	24059	5878	5166	6215	10310	6474	5313	12023
2021-03-10	2832	4927	8429	8022	9319	9625	11430	3780	23100	29850	17630	4177	17480	7969	7720	8090	13190	21930	98050	6741	17460	9040	5756	24790	4595	24890	6886	46020	10650	6454	27830	6835	14130	29880	5851	23990	6073	9004	6815	9664	16640	13750	5455	13790	6893	9866	8168	8187	15360	11940	12490	3656	8894	20150	21020	5966	4743	4144	7535	11050	3067	5230	13790	2510	36720	22890	2686	7750	30430	8300	7109	10130	4080	19550	2842	21610	11490	7739	25850	30190	2880	4050	4758	8069	6023	4439	17170	9238	8546	6490	5588	2950	7189	29370	12280	5118	6815	4861	5113	5175	8008	3037	4633	13400	7854	6285	3757	10150	5420	21950	7209	11710	4099	12680	4919	20450	7799	7426	20140	4184	8542	6169	6886	26520	6704	8086	4793	25610	5821	5560	24080	7506	7616	7218	6673	14670	8703	5718	7324	18190	11900	31760	17140	23800	9169	58670	34710	4835	21340	6369	6692	47810	19250	12540	3719	2713	50720	7791	25800	2493	3349	15840	2138	3169	6706	12050	19440	4307	6002	6852	22710	8139	34810	1932	5769	8003	6179	5331	8326	2946	9803	11950	4074	5768	17420	16790	7236	29750	8173	4796	21990	9121	9453	14610	8868	13920	13290	10580	32180	9066	5927	9100	4441	10530	2510	20330	6317	5888	4847	19700	6177	5339	6678	7623	1570	1811	22240	32960	5347	5106	23530	4635	6760	40460	14660	14820	14090	5841	4683	5584	7077	14750	4853	6960	4415	5392	4561	5628	7775	5118	8481	11000	13840	14470	22090	7210	7687	16710	8382	5140	5767	20020	15130	19110	4913	3656	21330	5384	15630	13150	10810	17380	5146	5456	2914	10720	9714	5189	2860	11180	6124	17600	7907	4095	28260	15920	5558	4763	4924	23540	24840	24510	21600	17280	6942	7746	5739	7798	4670	8045	6180	8684	4357	3901	6240	13730	27830	16620	4788	8126	23990	6651	7950	24090	5887	5180	6225	10320	6482	5337	12040
2021-03-11	2840	4933	8451	8036	9368	9637	11460	3788	23120	29930	17700	4185	17510	7990	7751	8103	13200	21950	98260	6775	17490	9068	5762	24840	4610	24920	6899	46180	10680	6487	27850	6850	14140	29900	5867	24000	6076	9018	6820	9681	16660	13800	5460	13820	6895	9872	8187	8193	15370	12000	12500	3665	8906	20180	21100	5983	4748	4159	7552	11060	3082	5250	13810	2511	36820	22940	2693	7765	30440	8321	7128	10140	4102	19580	2854	21650	11540	7759	25880	30220	2886	4053	4768	8093	6028	4446	17220	9250	8567	6493	5601	2958	7202	29430	12290	5125	6828	4877	5120	5210	8023	3049	4656	13430	7880	6293	3763	10170	5424	21990	7215	11720	4109	12700	4945	20460	7816	7455	20160	4197	8570	6180	6897	26540	6710	8100	4812	25650	5838	5571	24100	7538	7640	7226	6682	14680	8716	5719	7348	18230	11900	31830	17150	23840	9179	58790	34770	4844	21360	6387	6710	47840	19280	12550	3730	2737	50790	7842	25820	2501	3357	15850	2140	3175	6715	12070	19470	4317	6016	6859	22760	8160	34840	1936	5774	8026	6189	5336	8338	2946	9821	11990	4085	5814	17440	16820	7250	29810	8187	4803	22010	9128	9474	14680	8886	13930	13330	10600	32200	9086	5954	9118	4453	10540	2522	20390	6335	5903	4855	19770	6190	5348	6719	7633	1580	1813	22290	33010	5361	5111	23590	4637	6773	40520	14690	14850	14110	5848	4695	5598	7103	14770	4880	6963	4422	5394	4572	5642	7804	5127	8501	11010	13860	14490	22120	7218	7704	16740	8388	5150	5792	20070	15180	19130	4927	3670	21370	5390	15640	13170	10860	17420	5157	5465	2925	10740	9744	5198	2867	11210	6144	17610	7911	4095	28290	15940	5560	4765	4928	23620	24880	24530	21640	17300	6982	7768	5748	7805	4675	8072	6193	8707	4380	3907	6261	13750	27870	16640	4794	8140	24000	6666	7973	24120	5913	5186	6236	10340	6507	5356	12060
2021-03-12	2845	4940	8469	8047	9397	9644	11480	3793	23130	30000	17740	4191	17530	8007	7770	8114	13210	21970	98430	6799	17520	9083	5769	24870	4625	24950	6908	46300	10700	6512	27860	6861	14150	29920	5879	24000	6083	9027	6826	9692	16690	13850	5464	13840	6898	9876	8203	8198	15380	12050	12510	3672	8916	20190	21150	5995	4754	4169	7565	11070	3092	5264	13820	2512	36900	22980	2698	7772	30450	8338	7151	10150	4117	19610	2864	21690	11570	7773	25900	30250	2889	4059	4773	8111	6037	4451	17250	9255	8585	6496	5616	2963	7211	29470	12290	5131	6838	4888	5131	5233	8030	3058	4672	13450	7895	6297	3771	10180	5429	22030	7222	11740	4118	12710	4963	20470	7828	7476	20180	4205	8592	6188	6907	26550	6713	8112	4827	25680	5854	5575	24120	7562	7654	7230	6688	14700	8725	5723	7364	18280	11910	31890	17150	23860	9189	58920	34840	4852	21370	6402	6725	47850	19310	12550	3736	2753	50870	7882	25840	2507	3368	15860	2142	3180	6723	12070	19490	4325	6026	6866	22800	8178	34870	1938	5785	8049	6196	5342	8356	2949	9835	12030	4095	5847	17460	16830	7261	29860	8202	4809	22030	9133	9490	14730	8894	13950	13370	10600	32220	9100	5976	9132	4462	10560	2530	20420	6348	5915	4858	19830	6202	5357	6747	7641	1586	1814	22330	33050	5371	5112	23640	4639	6781	40580	14710	14870	14120	5852	4703	5608	7131	14790	4904	6968	4427	5397	4581	5653	7827	5144	8517	11020	13880	14510	22140	7226	7717	16760	8394	5155	5812	20110	15210	19150	4939	3681	21400	5394	15650	13190	10890	17450	5158	5472	2933	10750	9764	5207	2873	11220	6156	17630	7911	4096	28320	15970	5561	4766	4932	23690	24910	24550	21660	17320	7012	7782	5755	7810	4681	8087	6205	8726	4398	3912	6274	13760	27910	16670	4799	8153	24020	6678	7990	24150	5931	5189	6247	10350	6523	5379	12080
2021-03-13	2848	4946	8476	8054	9410	9654	11490	3797	23150	30060	17780	4193	17530	8020	7788	8122	13210	21980	98550	6818	17550	9092	5776	24900	4637	24970	6917	46400	10720	6532	27870	6865	14160	29950	5886	24010	6087	9034	6830	9698	16700	13900	5469	13850	6902	9881	8212	8202	15400	12080	12510	3677	8924	20210	21190	6002	4756	4175	7574	11080	3100	5279	13830	2513	36970	23000	2702	7779	30460	8352	7167	10160	4129	19630	2873	21720	11580	7784	25910	30280	2891	4066	4778	8126	6046	4457	17290	9262	8599	6498	5623	2966	7219	29500	12290	5135	6844	4896	5136	5246	8039	3066	4685	13470	7911	6302	3776	10190	5431	22050	7229	11750	4125	12720	4977	20480	7838	7492	20200	4211	8611	6192	6915	26570	6715	8121	4834	25700	5869	5579	24130	7576	7663	7239	6692	14710	8733	5728	7376	18320	11920	31940	17160	23880	9196	59020	34880	4856	21390	6409	6738	47850	19330	12550	3741	2765	50930	7914	25850	2512	3376	15870	2143	3183	6729	12070	19520	4331	6034	6881	22830	8193	34900	1940	5791	8073	6199	5349	8375	2949	9842	12050	4103	5873	17470	16860	7270	29910	8208	4814	22050	9138	9502	14770	8902	13960	13390	10610	32240	9115	5996	9143	4470	10560	2536	20450	6360	5924	4860	19870	6213	5365	6767	7648	1590	1815	22360	33070	5378	5112	23680	4641	6787	40630	14720	14890	14140	5856	4709	5617	7140	14800	4919	6975	4431	5399	4587	5661	7847	5151	8530	11020	13900	14530	22160	7232	7728	16780	8399	5166	5828	20150	15250	19170	4943	3690	21420	5397	15660	13200	10920	17470	5163	5477	2940	10760	9779	5212	2877	11240	6166	17640	7912	4097	28340	15990	5563	4767	4935	23740	24940	24570	21680	17340	7036	7794	5760	7814	4686	8099	6210	8739	4413	3916	6281	13770	27940	16680	4804	8163	24030	6687	8003	24170	5944	5197	6256	10360	6535	5386	12100
2021-03-14	2852	4952	8488	8059	9431	9659	11500	3801	23160	30110	17820	4196	17540	8033	7805	8128	13210	21990	98670	6835	17570	9096	5782	24920	4646	24990	6925	46490	10730	6552	27880	6869	14170	29960	5894	24020	6095	9040	6843	9705	16720	13930	5474	13870	6903	9887	8221	8206	15410	12120	12520	3682	8932	20250	21230	6013	4757	4182	7583	11090	3108	5293	13830	2515	37020	23030	2705	7789	30470	8366	7179	10170	4139	19650	2882	21750	11600	7794	25940	30310	2893	4074	4783	8141	6056	4462	17300	9262	8613	6502	5635	2969	7227	29530	12290	5140	6851	4903	5142	5258	8048	3073	4696	13490	7918	6305	3778	10200	5432	22080	7236	11760	4132	12740	4989	20490	7847	7507	20220	4216	8630	6198	6922	26580	6717	8129	4841	25730	5883	5586	24140	7587	7671	7249	6696	14720	8741	5732	7387	18370	11930	32000	17160	23900	9201	59080	34930	4862	21400	6418	6751	47860	19360	12560	3744	2776	50980	7948	25870	2517	3380	15880	2144	3186	6737	12070	19550	4337	6038	6888	22860	8208	34930	1942	5796	8097	6204	5355	8395	2949	9848	12080	4112	5898	17480	16870	7278	29960	8219	4819	22080	9144	9513	14810	8913	13970	13420	10620	32260	9122	6015	9152	4478	10570	2542	20490	6368	5933	4862	19910	6223	5372	6785	7655	1594	1816	22390	33100	5384	5112	23730	4643	6793	40680	14730	14910	14150	5859	4715	5626	7159	14810	4935	6982	4435	5402	4593	5669	7866	5161	8532	11030	13920	14540	22170	7238	7738	16790	8404	5174	5844	20190	15270	19190	4950	3699	21440	5399	15670	13210	10950	17490	5169	5482	2947	10760	9793	5216	2881	11250	6174	17660	7915	4099	28350	16010	5565	4769	4938	23790	24960	24590	21690	17360	7059	7804	5765	7818	4691	8111	6216	8755	4427	3920	6287	13780	27970	16680	4809	8174	24040	6696	8014	24190	5956	5201	6265	10370	6547	5396	12120
2021-03-15	2854	4958	8504	8072	9450	9660	11520	3805	23180	30160	17880	4201	17560	8045	7836	8133	13220	22010	98830	6850	17600	9108	5788	24970	4663	25010	6932	46610	10740	6570	27910	6873	14190	29990	5907	24030	6100	9045	6851	9717	16740	13980	5479	13880	6905	9898	8232	8210	15430	12150	12520	3686	8940	20280	21270	6023	4760	4186	7600	11090	3114	5313	13850	2516	37090	23070	2708	7796	30480	8379	7199	10170	4148	19670	2891	21820	11610	7802	25960	30350	2894	4083	4792	8154	6066	4467	17340	9268	8633	6506	5642	2971	7234	29550	12290	5144	6856	4908	5151	5280	8055	3080	4706	13510	7934	6314	3781	10210	5436	22110	7243	11770	4138	12750	5000	20500	7854	7519	20230	4220	8646	6203	6929	26600	6719	8137	4849	25760	5897	5590	24160	7601	7684	7261	6699	14730	8747	5738	7401	18430	11940	32070	17170	23920	9210	59230	34980	4867	21420	6436	6762	47860	19380	12570	3747	2786	51060	7977	25880	2521	3394	15890	2145	3191	6742	12080	19570	4342	6044	6900	22890	8223	34960	1944	5803	8122	6210	5362	8416	2950	9862	12110	4119	5919	17510	16900	7286	30010	8230	4824	22110	9155	9523	14840	8927	13970	13450	10630	32280	9141	6034	9168	4485	10580	2546	20530	6379	5941	4863	19960	6233	5380	6799	7661	1596	1817	22430	33150	5390	5118	23770	4646	6797	40760	14750	14930	14180	5863	4719	5633	7181	14830	4961	6990	4439	5405	4598	5676	7884	5175	8538	11030	13950	14560	22180	7244	7747	16820	8408	5192	5858	20230	15310	19210	4963	3707	21480	5400	15680	13220	10970	17540	5169	5486	2953	10770	9804	5224	2884	11260	6180	17670	7915	4101	28370	16030	5566	4770	4940	23860	24980	24610	21710	17380	7079	7813	5771	7821	4696	8128	6228	8782	4439	3924	6295	13790	28020	16710	4814	8184	24060	6704	8024	24220	5966	5212	6274	10370	6556	5412	12130
2021-03-16	2856	4963	8517	8089	9466	9664	11540	3808	23190	30200	17930	4204	17580	8056	7858	8139	13230	22020	98970	6864	17620	9121	5795	25010	4679	25030	6939	46750	10750	6587	27930	6876	14200	30020	5915	24040	6106	9050	6864	9727	16760	14000	5484	13890	6912	9906	8237	8214	15440	12180	12530	3690	8948	20310	21300	6032	4765	4190	7610	11100	3119	5332	13860	2518	37150	23110	2711	7806	30490	8392	7216	10180	4156	19700	2900	21870	11620	7809	25990	30400	2895	4093	4797	8167	6077	4472	17380	9286	8642	6507	5655	2973	7240	29580	12300	5148	6861	4913	5161	5304	8057	3086	4716	13530	7946	6320	3788	10220	5445	22130	7250	11780	4144	12760	5010	20510	7861	7531	20250	4223	8663	6208	6936	26610	6720	8147	4857	25790	5911	5592	24190	7618	7697	7269	6702	14740	8754	5743	7414	18490	11950	32130	17180	23940	9219	59350	35050	4870	21430	6452	6774	47910	19410	12580	3749	2795	51130	7988	25900	2526	3400	15900	2145	3194	6747	12100	19600	4347	6052	6910	22920	8236	34980	1945	5811	8146	6216	5369	8437	2952	9880	12130	4127	5940	17530	16920	7294	30060	8244	4829	22130	9169	9532	14900	8937	13990	13490	10640	32300	9148	6052	9180	4492	10590	2550	20580	6384	5949	4864	20010	6242	5387	6812	7666	1598	1817	22480	33190	5394	5122	23800	4648	6801	40830	14770	14950	14210	5868	4723	5641	7194	14850	4976	6998	4442	5407	4602	5683	7902	5187	8547	11040	13980	14570	22200	7250	7756	16840	8413	5203	5871	20270	15330	19230	4977	3715	21520	5402	15690	13230	11000	17580	5176	5490	2959	10790	9813	5232	2887	11270	6186	17680	7917	4102	28390	16060	5569	4771	4943	23930	25020	24630	21730	17400	7098	7821	5772	7825	4701	8135	6234	8796	4451	3928	6307	13810	28070	16750	4819	8194	24080	6712	8033	24240	5975	5222	6283	10380	6564	5428	12150

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-10 to 2021-03-16

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-03-09	2830	4920	8394	8004	9248	9608	11389	3777	23080	29790	17558	4158	17460	7957	7688	8069	13166	21915	97783	6727	17422	9013	5748	24740	4570	24867	6878	45849	10638	6435	27799	6820	14124	29864	5832	23977	6068	8999	6811	9641	16611	13669	5451	13781	6888	9861	8132	8182	15341	11910	12487	3651	8886	20121	20988	5947	4736	4140	7515	11044	3061	5210	13772	2509	36575	22838	2683	7731	30415	8286	7084	10125	4072	19527	2834	21559	11430	7731	25812	30161	2879	4040	4747	8053	6011	4434	17123	9229	8521	6486	5571	2948	7182	29344	12273	5113	6810	4856	5101	5132	7989	3030	4624	13359	7834	6273	3746	10138	5414	21923	7201	11693	4092	12663	4909	20444	7792	7414	20124	4181	8525	6154	6878	26509	6702	8069	4775	25580	5805	5550	24054	7453	7591	7217	6669	14655	8696	5714	7297	18126	11888	31692	17132	23785	9158	58595	34642	4822	21319	6348	6680	47790	19224	12527	3717	2705	50626	7719	25782	2488	3342	15827	2137	3160	6694	12032	19409	4302	5982	6843	22677	8124	34782	1930	5766	7976	6166	5323	8305	2943	9788	11927	4065	5748	17384	16765	7228	29691	8155	4791	21956	9115	9443	14504	8847	13916	13233	10574	32156	9040	5907	9078	4434	10512	2506	20260	6293	5880	4839	19611	6166	5331	6666	7617	1569	1810	22192	32896	5342	5094	23446	4633	6756	40381	14634	14797	14067	5823	4679	5576	7031	14720	4815	6952	4411	5389	4556	5621	7757	5110	8458	10991	13825	14452	22074	7204	7675	16684	8377	5135	5752	19979	15086	19088	4890	3646	21286	5382	15623	13134	10788	17362	5131	5452	2907	10696	9703	5176	2857	11174	6119	17589	7900	4094	28246	15895	5554	4763	4922	23463	24786	24485	21547	17260	6921	7738	5722	7792	4664	8013	6158	8656	4345	3897	6221	13703	27793	16608	4783	8116	23968	6643	7941	24059	5878	5166	6215	10310	6474	5313	12023
2021-03-10	2832	4928	8404	8017	9261	9614	11410	3782	23100	29820	17610	4162	17470	7968	7711	8078	13180	21930	97910	6741	17450	9026	5758	24780	4583	24880	6883	45970	10650	6448	27820	6826	14130	29890	5838	23990	6073	9004	6816	9650	16630	13700	5457	13790	6895	9870	8141	8186	15360	11940	12490	3656	8891	20150	21020	5955	4740	4145	7526	11060	3065	5225	13780	2511	36640	22870	2685	7739	30440	8300	7101	10130	4080	19550	2841	21620	11450	7738	25840	30200	2883	4048	4751	8060	6025	4440	17160	9249	8529	6487	5579	2951	7189	29360	12280	5116	6826	4860	5109	5147	7993	3033	4632	13380	7846	6279	3751	10150	5419	21940	7207	11700	4100	12670	4920	20450	7798	7425	20140	4185	8542	6157	6883	26520	6708	8077	4783	25610	5817	5553	24080	7469	7602	7221	6672	14670	8702	5724	7312	18190	11900	31760	17140	23810	9164	58700	34690	4827	21330	6361	6693	47820	19250	12530	3719	2706	50690	7735	25800	2494	3351	15840	2138	3164	6699	12050	19440	4307	5991	6853	22710	8136	34800	1931	5771	8005	6170	5331	8330	2944	9799	11950	4073	5769	17410	16790	7235	29730	8163	4798	21990	9124	9452	14550	8857	13930	13260	10580	32170	9056	5928	9088	4442	10520	2512	20300	6299	5890	4841	19670	6175	5336	6679	7622	1573	1812	22230	32930	5345	5100	23470	4640	6760	40460	14650	14820	14090	5828	4682	5584	7047	14740	4834	6962	4414	5393	4560	5628	7776	5121	8465	11010	13850	14470	22080	7210	7680	16710	8383	5144	5761	20020	15120	19120	4906	3652	21320	5386	15630	13140	10820	17390	5138	5457	2911	10700	9711	5184	2860	11180	6125	17600	7901	4099	28260	15910	5556	4765	4928	23520	24810	24500	21570	17280	6931	7746	5727	7796	4670	8024	6168	8671	4358	3901	6230	13720	27830	16630	4788	8127	23980	6650	7945	24080	5886	5177	6224	10320	6478	5333	12040
2021-03-11	2834	4935	8415	8031	9284	9620	11420	3786	23110	29850	17670	4166	17490	7981	7732	8086	13200	21940	98040	6758	17470	9041	5764	24820	4594	24900	6889	46080	10660	6460	27840	6833	14140	29910	5841	24000	6077	9010	6823	9662	16650	13720	5461	13810	6901	9876	8146	8190	15380	11970	12500	3662	8896	20180	21060	5964	4743	4150	7535	11080	3071	5236	13790	2513	36700	22900	2689	7748	30450	8315	7114	10140	4090	19580	2851	21650	11470	7749	25860	30230	2888	4056	4757	8067	6034	4446	17180	9268	8536	6489	5589	2954	7195	29380	12290	5120	6841	4866	5114	5169	7999	3036	4644	13400	7862	6284	3753	10160	5421	21960	7211	11710	4106	12690	4932	20460	7807	7440	20150	4189	8560	6163	6891	26530	6717	8083	4793	25640	5827	5558	24100	7489	7619	7227	6676	14680	8707	5729	7328	18230	11900	31810	17150	23820	9169	58810	34750	4832	21340	6371	6705	47850	19270	12540	3723	2719	50740	7750	25820	2498	3358	15850	2140	3169	6703	12070	19460	4311	5997	6861	22740	8150	34830	1933	5774	8029	6175	5338	8349	2945	9811	11970	4079	5792	17430	16810	7241	29770	8173	4805	22010	9130	9462	14580	8869	13940	13290	10590	32190	9067	5946	9094	4450	10530	2517	20340	6305	5898	4847	19720	6184	5339	6697	7626	1577	1814	22260	32960	5351	5104	23500	4646	6765	40520	14670	14830	14100	5831	4687	5593	7064	14750	4853	6976	4418	5398	4566	5636	7792	5130	8475	11030	13860	14480	22100	7216	7685	16720	8389	5153	5770	20050	15140	19160	4915	3661	21340	5390	15640	13150	10840	17420	5148	5462	2914	10710	9721	5188	2864	11190	6133	17620	7906	4104	28280	15920	5558	4767	4936	23570	24840	24520	21590	17300	6944	7758	5731	7800	4674	8036	6175	8682	4372	3905	6243	13740	27860	16650	4791	8136	24000	6658	7955	24090	5899	5186	6233	10340	6487	5346	12050
2021-03-12	2837	4942	8427	8042	9298	9626	11440	3788	23130	29870	17710	4168	17500	7992	7748	8093	13210	21940	98160	6772	17500	9052	5770	24840	4606	24910	6895	46180	10680	6470	27860	6839	14150	29940	5845	24010	6083	9015	6830	9671	16670	13730	5465	13820	6907	9880	8151	8195	15390	11990	12500	3666	8901	20200	21090	5972	4746	4155	7541	11090	3076	5243	13800	2515	36750	22930	2692	7753	30470	8330	7130	10140	4099	19600	2863	21670	11490	7758	25880	30260	2892	4064	4759	8074	6044	4453	17200	9281	8544	6492	5598	2956	7201	29390	12300	5123	6858	4871	5119	5183	8003	3040	4655	13420	7872	6287	3757	10170	5422	21970	7216	11720	4112	12700	4943	20470	7813	7453	20160	4193	8576	6168	6897	26540	6725	8089	4802	25670	5837	5560	24120	7507	7631	7232	6679	14690	8712	5734	7340	18270	11910	31870	17160	23840	9173	58910	34810	4837	21340	6380	6716	47880	19290	12540	3725	2725	50800	7764	25830	2502	3366	15860	2142	3172	6708	12080	19480	4315	6002	6867	22770	8163	34850	1935	5780	8054	6179	5344	8370	2947	9818	11990	4085	5813	17440	16820	7246	29800	8184	4811	22030	9135	9471	14610	8877	13960	13320	10590	32210	9078	5962	9099	4457	10540	2521	20360	6309	5906	4849	19770	6193	5341	6713	7631	1581	1816	22300	32980	5356	5107	23520	4651	6769	40580	14680	14840	14110	5834	4691	5600	7086	14760	4873	6986	4421	5402	4570	5646	7809	5144	8483	11040	13880	14480	22110	7222	7690	16740	8394	5159	5778	20080	15160	19180	4925	3668	21360	5394	15650	13160	10870	17450	5155	5466	2917	10720	9729	5193	2867	11200	6139	17630	7908	4107	28290	15930	5561	4769	4942	23630	24860	24530	21610	17320	6955	7767	5735	7802	4678	8044	6180	8690	4384	3908	6253	13750	27880	16670	4794	8145	24030	6665	7964	24110	5907	5193	6241	10360	6495	5363	12070
2021-03-13	2839	4947	8432	8050	9305	9633	11450	3791	23140	29890	17760	4169	17510	8002	7764	8100	13230	21950	98260	6786	17520	9063	5775	24870	4616	24920	6901	46270	10690	6479	27880	6844	14150	29960	5847	24020	6086	9019	6836	9677	16680	13760	5469	13830	6913	9886	8154	8198	15410	12010	12500	3669	8904	20210	21120	5979	4748	4158	7546	11110	3079	5253	13800	2517	36800	22950	2694	7757	30480	8342	7143	10150	4106	19630	2871	21690	11500	7765	25900	30280	2895	4072	4763	8081	6054	4458	17220	9294	8551	6492	5603	2958	7206	29400	12300	5125	6870	4875	5123	5191	8007	3044	4663	13440	7883	6291	3760	10170	5422	21980	7221	11720	4117	12710	4952	20470	7820	7462	20170	4196	8591	6172	6903	26550	6730	8094	4808	25690	5846	5562	24140	7520	7641	7237	6681	14700	8716	5740	7349	18310	11910	31910	17170	23860	9176	58990	34840	4841	21350	6388	6726	47910	19310	12540	3728	2729	50840	7775	25840	2506	3374	15870	2144	3176	6712	12090	19510	4318	6008	6874	22800	8173	34870	1936	5784	8076	6182	5349	8390	2947	9824	12010	4090	5832	17460	16840	7251	29830	8188	4816	22050	9138	9477	14640	8885	13980	13340	10600	32230	9091	5978	9104	4463	10540	2524	20390	6313	5913	4851	19800	6201	5343	6725	7635	1584	1818	22320	32990	5359	5109	23550	4657	6773	40630	14690	14850	14120	5836	4694	5605	7095	14760	4888	6993	4423	5406	4575	5649	7822	5152	8489	11060	13890	14490	22120	7227	7693	16750	8398	5168	5785	20100	15190	19200	4929	3672	21380	5398	15660	13170	10890	17470	5162	5470	2920	10730	9737	5196	2870	11210	6144	17640	7911	4111	28310	15950	5564	4771	4946	23670	24890	24550	21620	17340	6964	7776	5738	7804	4683	8051	6183	8694	4396	3911	6259	13760	27890	16680	4796	8153	24040	6668	7972	24110	5915	5201	6247	10370	6501	5371	12080
2021-03-14	2840	4952	8442	8057	9322	9637	11460	3793	23150	29900	17800	4170	17530	8011	7782	8106	13240	21960	98380	6799	17540	9072	5780	24890	4627	24930	6906	46370	10690	6487	27900	6848	14160	29980	5851	24030	6090	9023	6846	9685	16690	13780	5473	13840	6918	9892	8157	8202	15420	12030	12510	3672	8907	20240	21150	5986	4749	4161	7552	11120	3083	5263	13810	2518	36840	22970	2697	7765	30500	8355	7155	10160	4112	19650	2881	21710	11520	7773	25920	30300	2898	4079	4767	8086	6064	4461	17230	9304	8560	6494	5612	2959	7212	29420	12310	5127	6883	4879	5128	5203	8012	3047	4670	13450	7890	6294	3761	10180	5423	22000	7225	11730	4122	12720	4960	20480	7827	7470	20170	4199	8607	6178	6908	26560	6734	8099	4815	25720	5855	5566	24160	7532	7651	7244	6683	14710	8720	5746	7358	18350	11920	31960	17180	23870	9179	59040	34880	4845	21360	6398	6736	47940	19330	12550	3730	2739	50890	7790	25860	2509	3380	15880	2146	3179	6715	12100	19530	4322	6013	6879	22830	8186	34890	1938	5788	8096	6185	5355	8411	2947	9829	12030	4095	5849	17480	16850	7255	29870	8196	4822	22070	9143	9485	14660	8896	13990	13360	10610	32240	9101	5994	9108	4470	10550	2528	20420	6316	5919	4854	19840	6209	5345	6737	7639	1586	1819	22350	33000	5362	5113	23570	4662	6777	40680	14690	14860	14130	5838	4697	5613	7112	14770	4906	7000	4425	5408	4579	5654	7836	5162	8492	11070	13910	14500	22130	7232	7697	16760	8403	5176	5792	20130	15210	19230	4936	3676	21400	5401	15670	13170	10920	17490	5172	5474	2922	10730	9746	5199	2872	11220	6149	17650	7916	4115	28320	15950	5567	4773	4952	23710	24910	24560	21640	17350	6974	7784	5741	7806	4687	8057	6188	8702	4407	3913	6264	13770	27900	16690	4799	8162	24050	6672	7982	24130	5923	5207	6251	10380	6506	5382	12100
2021-03-15	2843	4958	8458	8070	9353	9643	11480	3796	23160	29930	17860	4174	17540	8021	7805	8114	13250	21960	98520	6811	17570	9082	5787	24940	4642	24950	6912	46470	10700	6498	27910	6853	14170	30010	5855	24040	6093	9027	6855	9699	16710	13800	5478	13840	6924	9900	8161	8207	15440	12060	12510	3676	8909	20280	21180	5994	4751	4163	7561	11130	3089	5276	13810	2520	36890	23000	2700	7770	30510	8368	7174	10160	4119	19670	2891	21750	11540	7780	25950	30340	2900	4089	4776	8091	6075	4466	17250	9324	8569	6498	5618	2960	7217	29430	12320	5129	6897	4883	5134	5229	8017	3050	4679	13470	7901	6301	3763	10190	5425	22010	7229	11730	4128	12730	4969	20480	7834	7485	20180	4202	8623	6185	6914	26570	6741	8105	4824	25740	5866	5569	24180	7553	7666	7252	6685	14720	8726	5753	7375	18390	11930	32020	17190	23880	9185	59160	34950	4848	21360	6409	6747	47980	19350	12560	3732	2751	50950	7805	25870	2513	3390	15890	2148	3182	6718	12120	19550	4325	6018	6888	22860	8199	34900	1939	5792	8122	6189	5360	8432	2948	9839	12050	4101	5868	17500	16880	7260	29900	8206	4828	22090	9148	9491	14700	8909	14000	13390	10610	32260	9115	6010	9114	4477	10560	2531	20470	6320	5926	4858	19890	6218	5348	6748	7643	1589	1820	22390	33040	5365	5121	23600	4668	6780	40740	14710	14870	14150	5842	4701	5623	7139	14790	4930	7011	4428	5412	4583	5663	7851	5174	8496	11080	13930	14510	22140	7237	7701	16790	8407	5191	5799	20160	15240	19250	4950	3683	21430	5404	15680	13180	10940	17530	5179	5478	2925	10750	9753	5204	2875	11220	6154	17660	7921	4118	28330	15970	5570	4775	4957	23770	24930	24580	21660	17370	6984	7791	5746	7808	4691	8066	6197	8716	4418	3916	6271	13780	27930	16720	4801	8170	24080	6676	7998	24140	5934	5218	6266	10390	6511	5398	12110
2021-03-16	2844	4964	8471	8087	9370	9648	11500	3798	23170	29950	17910	4177	17560	8031	7826	8121	13270	21970	98660	6824	17590	9095	5794	24970	4657	24960	6919	46590	10710	6506	27940	6858	14180	30030	5860	24050	6098	9031	6864	9710	16730	13820	5482	13850	6932	9906	8164	8211	15450	12080	12520	3680	8913	20300	21210	6003	4754	4165	7567	11150	3093	5287	13820	2522	36950	23030	2702	7777	30530	8380	7187	10170	4125	19700	2901	21780	11550	7787	25980	30370	2903	4100	4779	8097	6085	4472	17270	9340	8577	6500	5628	2961	7222	29450	12320	5131	6912	4887	5140	5254	8021	3053	4687	13490	7908	6306	3767	10200	5427	22020	7233	11740	4133	12740	4978	20490	7840	7494	20190	4206	8638	6192	6919	26580	6749	8112	4832	25770	5876	5571	24200	7576	7680	7257	6687	14730	8730	5761	7385	18440	11940	32080	17200	23900	9190	59250	35020	4852	21370	6422	6757	48020	19370	12560	3733	2762	51000	7813	25890	2516	3396	15900	2149	3186	6722	12140	19580	4329	6025	6895	22880	8214	34930	1940	5796	8148	6193	5366	8453	2949	9848	12080	4106	5886	17520	16890	7265	29940	8219	4833	22120	9153	9496	14750	8921	14010	13420	10620	32280	9127	6026	9120	4483	10560	2533	20520	6323	5932	4860	19960	6226	5351	6759	7648	1592	1821	22420	33060	5369	5126	23620	4674	6783	40800	14720	14890	14160	5845	4704	5630	7160	14800	4949	7027	4430	5414	4588	5667	7866	5184	8502	11100	13940	14520	22150	7242	7705	16800	8411	5201	5806	20190	15260	19270	4962	3690	21460	5407	15690	13190	10970	17560	5189	5482	2926	10760	9760	5207	2878	11230	6159	17670	7926	4120	28340	15980	5574	4777	4961	23830	24960	24590	21680	17390	6993	7799	5749	7810	4695	8073	6202	8725	4429	3919	6283	13790	27950	16740	4803	8178	24100	6679	8007	24150	5943	5226	6277	10410	6520	5410	12130

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-09