COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-09

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-09

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-2712-292021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-2112-3012-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1312-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-3012-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 78 477 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 430 1252 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 188 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 302 90 265 52 200 250 285 60 90 71 68 244 53 95 284 35 367 289 38 184 599 151 69 189 72 246 43 249 187 118 323 539 60 53 76 160 110 52 224 102 165 146 108 54 143 590 271 95 74 54 89 73 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 199 57 398 176 103 339 101 109 135 120 478 100 156 47 445 57 115 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 296 197 190 311 429 107 379 287 104 444 72 113 730 272 200 89 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 119 362 79 105 63 123 85 727 23 50 159 105 51 109 59 124 122 41 55 277 158 122 225 90 44 125 127 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 174 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 405 65 130 244 210 245 169 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 83 95 79 110 80 67 102 113 245 294 456 131 151 219 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 105 320 189 181 125 55 108 46 140 328 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 452 387 229 77 139 117 159 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 264 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 72 69 72 78 72 91 78 76 73 76 147 72 76 71 57 69 72 77 70 72 72 70 61 67 114 71 78 131 77 72 72 86 72 71 74 78 73 77 69 69 72 126 78 73 74 91 72 78 78 64 77 70 73 77 78 66 78 78 69 73 72 71 70 77 77 69 71 72 72 78 74 78 78 66 12 146 72 92 73 72 75 70 75 78 127 73 129 72 70 71 78 74 77 74 85 76 62 78 76 71 81 71 64 72 73 78 72 77 78 72 78 72 77 78 78 78 77 72 72 77 77 86 72 86 71 78 70 72 71 75 74 78 67 71 72 77 71 71 74 132 78 72 72 70 69 72 71 78 72 72 100 72 72 77 78 64 69 65 77 125 70 78 78 78 77 74 77 73 71 70 65 125 71 91 72 135 73 78 125 78 69 126 78 64 72 78 69 70 78 72 71 72 72 68 62 70 66 70 78 62 63 77 71 78 72 71 86 68 86 143 69 72 72 74 42 71 70 70 65 78 72 70 75 72 69 74 72 78 77 78 71 73 74 64 77 120 75 78 79 65 71 72 77 78 85 71 73 78 65 74 129 77 71 78 128 78 76 77 72 78 92 74 71 69 76 69 64 72 78 76 78 78 87 76 69 78 77 71 77 73 78 132 71 72 81 74 78 78 77 78 72 74 79 86 71 92 77 72 72 70 70 77 77 71 72 77 72 67 71 69 78 69 69 71
Last total 2830 4920 8394 8004 9248 9608 11389 3777 23080 29790 17558 4158 17460 7957 7688 8069 13166 21915 97783 6727 17422 9013 5748 24740 4570 24867 6878 45849 10638 6435 27799 6820 14124 29864 5832 23977 6068 8999 6811 9641 16611 13669 5451 13781 6888 9861 8132 8182 15341 11910 12487 3651 8886 20121 20988 5947 4736 4140 7515 11044 3061 5210 13772 2509 36575 22838 2683 7731 30415 8286 7084 10125 4072 19527 2834 21559 11430 7731 25812 30161 2879 4040 4747 8053 6011 4434 17123 9229 8521 6486 5571 2948 7182 29344 12273 5113 6810 4856 5101 5132 7989 3030 4624 13359 7834 6273 3746 10138 5414 21923 7201 11693 4092 12663 4909 20444 7792 7414 20124 4181 8525 6154 6878 26509 6702 8069 4775 25580 5805 5550 24054 7453 7591 7217 6669 14655 8696 5714 7297 18126 11888 31692 17132 23785 9158 58595 34642 4822 21319 6348 6680 47790 19224 12527 3717 2705 50626 7719 25782 2488 3342 15827 2137 3160 6694 12032 19409 4302 5982 6843 22677 8124 34782 1930 5766 7976 6166 5323 8305 2943 9788 11927 4065 5748 17384 16765 7228 29691 8155 4791 21956 9115 9443 14504 8847 13916 13233 10574 32156 9040 5907 9078 4434 10512 2506 20260 6293 5880 4839 19611 6166 5331 6666 7617 1569 1810 22192 32896 5342 5094 23446 4633 6756 40381 14634 14797 14067 5823 4679 5576 7031 14720 1593 4815 6952 4411 5389 4556 5621 7757 5110 8458 10991 13825 14452 22074 7204 7675 16684 8377 5135 5752 19979 15086 19088 4890 3646 21286 5382 15623 13134 10788 17362 5131 5452 2907 10696 9703 5176 2857 11174 6119 17589 7900 4094 966 28246 15895 5554 4763 4922 23463 24786 24485 21547 17260 6921 7738 5722 7792 4664 8013 6158 1141 8656 4345 3897 6221 13703 27793 16608 4783 8116 23968 6643 7941 24059 5878 5166 6215 10310 6474 5313 12023
Last daily increment 1 12 11 16 11 3 11 7 15 24 59 1 16 12 20 5 5 16 125 15 30 12 13 44 17 27 7 141 5 13 26 1 12 32 4 15 6 4 13 10 24 27 7 14 7 10 5 5 30 41 5 2 7 26 33 9 6 3 9 9 2 22 15 4 66 20 0 10 20 8 22 5 7 31 3 64 11 2 22 56 5 13 6 2 14 11 46 18 7 1 10 4 7 13 2 3 8 2 7 23 1 5 3 28 14 8 6 4 10 20 8 16 12 10 9 11 5 9 22 7 15 2 4 25 10 11 6 36 12 1 28 9 11 9 1 16 7 11 13 69 15 61 11 16 12 144 62 1 13 17 10 47 28 7 1 5 80 18 13 8 8 12 1 3 6 20 37 6 10 11 40 17 19 0 10 45 3 12 36 1 20 25 11 20 19 27 10 55 13 6 42 15 10 41 6 15 31 8 21 10 28 17 11 9 9 55 7 14 0 58 8 7 7 7 1 1 44 43 3 2 28 7 4 79 24 30 23 6 1 8 11 25 0 13 11 4 3 3 6 21 16 7 15 35 16 7 6 3 22 7 11 11 43 25 27 17 9 49 4 18 5 32 43 7 5 2 7 8 9 4 11 6 20 2 2 0 11 24 3 0 6 77 26 30 12 15 11 6 0 2 9 5 7 1 18 12 7 10 18 60 41 12 17 19 12 7 19 8 13 8 10 0 22 16
Last week 7 43 57 84 77 29 79 23 92 128 292 12 93 66 133 34 67 68 794 75 163 69 45 232 66 110 42 672 48 65 126 31 68 202 32 77 32 24 53 46 121 159 31 68 46 48 18 23 122 156 61 18 43 176 186 57 19 16 65 78 19 93 60 12 305 189 14 40 111 69 99 42 39 187 118 251 106 25 152 226 16 74 26 39 82 50 198 104 54 10 59 8 38 72 29 22 85 24 48 98 24 23 42 113 80 27 24 33 19 87 53 60 40 59 46 65 44 61 137 13 95 23 40 85 32 44 47 184 74 20 153 73 67 54 20 57 30 86 76 341 88 388 66 91 49 713 347 23 65 61 72 217 172 33 10 36 400 78 90 29 54 67 10 19 28 102 164 20 40 67 195 79 139 6 50 172 23 45 160 7 75 117 53 105 130 145 35 228 66 37 197 48 65 204 60 117 168 42 118 93 120 48 58 51 18 212 24 42 8 279 68 34 64 30 15 18 233 237 21 30 149 49 19 400 105 124 117 15 23 44 86 88 3 103 78 18 27 23 47 109 80 49 80 151 66 63 42 29 130 42 72 49 219 189 202 55 37 185 18 68 51 138 224 43 26 29 61 42 39 26 47 19 83 12 35 1 105 141 13 16 42 378 174 111 90 143 42 33 18 17 46 58 39 3 88 63 22 54 73 263 159 33 69 127 46 33 136 41 39 43 64 36 86 102
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-17 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1211-01 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2711-01 -- -- -- --09-28 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-20 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-11 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-01 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-28 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-20 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-1311-0310-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 99 54 235 136 55 71 319 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 42 52 59 360 152 86 540 254 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 231 84 183 435 113 66 24 71 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 320 136 38 31 65 41 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 18 61 34 27 21 82 19 33 55 9 32 16 56 18 31 13 106 70 9 53 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 24 18 11 14 21 95 19 23 154 124 58 136 19 34 55 14 16 7 70 58 19 40 25 13 12 21 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 77 21 9 11 18 13 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-10 to 2021-03-16

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-09 2830 4920 8394 8004 9248 9608 11389 3777 23080 29790 17558 4158 17460 7957 7688 8069 13166 21915 97783 6727 17422 9013 5748 24740 4570 24867 6878 45849 10638 6435 27799 6820 14124 29864 5832 23977 6068 8999 6811 9641 16611 13669 5451 13781 6888 9861 8132 8182 15341 11910 12487 3651 8886 20121 20988 5947 4736 4140 7515 11044 3061 5210 13772 2509 36575 22838 2683 7731 30415 8286 7084 10125 4072 19527 2834 21559 11430 7731 25812 30161 2879 4040 4747 8053 6011 4434 17123 9229 8521 6486 5571 2948 7182 29344 12273 5113 6810 4856 5101 5132 7989 3030 4624 13359 7834 6273 3746 10138 5414 21923 7201 11693 4092 12663 4909 20444 7792 7414 20124 4181 8525 6154 6878 26509 6702 8069 4775 25580 5805 5550 24054 7453 7591 7217 6669 14655 8696 5714 7297 18126 11888 31692 17132 23785 9158 58595 34642 4822 21319 6348 6680 47790 19224 12527 3717 2705 50626 7719 25782 2488 3342 15827 2137 3160 6694 12032 19409 4302 5982 6843 22677 8124 34782 1930 5766 7976 6166 5323 8305 2943 9788 11927 4065 5748 17384 16765 7228 29691 8155 4791 21956 9115 9443 14504 8847 13916 13233 10574 32156 9040 5907 9078 4434 10512 2506 20260 6293 5880 4839 19611 6166 5331 6666 7617 1569 1810 22192 32896 5342 5094 23446 4633 6756 40381 14634 14797 14067 5823 4679 5576 7031 14720 4815 6952 4411 5389 4556 5621 7757 5110 8458 10991 13825 14452 22074 7204 7675 16684 8377 5135 5752 19979 15086 19088 4890 3646 21286 5382 15623 13134 10788 17362 5131 5452 2907 10696 9703 5176 2857 11174 6119 17589 7900 4094 28246 15895 5554 4763 4922 23463 24786 24485 21547 17260 6921 7738 5722 7792 4664 8013 6158 8656 4345 3897 6221 13703 27793 16608 4783 8116 23968 6643 7941 24059 5878 5166 6215 10310 6474 5313 12023
2021-03-10 2832 4927 8429 8022 9319 9625 11430 3780 23100 29850 17630 4177 17480 7969 7720 8090 13190 21930 98050 6741 17460 9040 5756 24790 4595 24890 6886 46020 10650 6454 27830 6835 14130 29880 5851 23990 6073 9004 6815 9664 16640 13750 5455 13790 6893 9866 8168 8187 15360 11940 12490 3656 8894 20150 21020 5966 4743 4144 7535 11050 3067 5230 13790 2510 36720 22890 2686 7750 30430 8300 7109 10130 4080 19550 2842 21610 11490 7739 25850 30190 2880 4050 4758 8069 6023 4439 17170 9238 8546 6490 5588 2950 7189 29370 12280 5118 6815 4861 5113 5175 8008 3037 4633 13400 7854 6285 3757 10150 5420 21950 7209 11710 4099 12680 4919 20450 7799 7426 20140 4184 8542 6169 6886 26520 6704 8086 4793 25610 5821 5560 24080 7506 7616 7218 6673 14670 8703 5718 7324 18190 11900 31760 17140 23800 9169 58670 34710 4835 21340 6369 6692 47810 19250 12540 3719 2713 50720 7791 25800 2493 3349 15840 2138 3169 6706 12050 19440 4307 6002 6852 22710 8139 34810 1932 5769 8003 6179 5331 8326 2946 9803 11950 4074 5768 17420 16790 7236 29750 8173 4796 21990 9121 9453 14610 8868 13920 13290 10580 32180 9066 5927 9100 4441 10530 2510 20330 6317 5888 4847 19700 6177 5339 6678 7623 1570 1811 22240 32960 5347 5106 23530 4635 6760 40460 14660 14820 14090 5841 4683 5584 7077 14750 4853 6960 4415 5392 4561 5628 7775 5118 8481 11000 13840 14470 22090 7210 7687 16710 8382 5140 5767 20020 15130 19110 4913 3656 21330 5384 15630 13150 10810 17380 5146 5456 2914 10720 9714 5189 2860 11180 6124 17600 7907 4095 28260 15920 5558 4763 4924 23540 24840 24510 21600 17280 6942 7746 5739 7798 4670 8045 6180 8684 4357 3901 6240 13730 27830 16620 4788 8126 23990 6651 7950 24090 5887 5180 6225 10320 6482 5337 12040
2021-03-11 2840 4933 8451 8036 9368 9637 11460 3788 23120 29930 17700 4185 17510 7990 7751 8103 13200 21950 98260 6775 17490 9068 5762 24840 4610 24920 6899 46180 10680 6487 27850 6850 14140 29900 5867 24000 6076 9018 6820 9681 16660 13800 5460 13820 6895 9872 8187 8193 15370 12000 12500 3665 8906 20180 21100 5983 4748 4159 7552 11060 3082 5250 13810 2511 36820 22940 2693 7765 30440 8321 7128 10140 4102 19580 2854 21650 11540 7759 25880 30220 2886 4053 4768 8093 6028 4446 17220 9250 8567 6493 5601 2958 7202 29430 12290 5125 6828 4877 5120 5210 8023 3049 4656 13430 7880 6293 3763 10170 5424 21990 7215 11720 4109 12700 4945 20460 7816 7455 20160 4197 8570 6180 6897 26540 6710 8100 4812 25650 5838 5571 24100 7538 7640 7226 6682 14680 8716 5719 7348 18230 11900 31830 17150 23840 9179 58790 34770 4844 21360 6387 6710 47840 19280 12550 3730 2737 50790 7842 25820 2501 3357 15850 2140 3175 6715 12070 19470 4317 6016 6859 22760 8160 34840 1936 5774 8026 6189 5336 8338 2946 9821 11990 4085 5814 17440 16820 7250 29810 8187 4803 22010 9128 9474 14680 8886 13930 13330 10600 32200 9086 5954 9118 4453 10540 2522 20390 6335 5903 4855 19770 6190 5348 6719 7633 1580 1813 22290 33010 5361 5111 23590 4637 6773 40520 14690 14850 14110 5848 4695 5598 7103 14770 4880 6963 4422 5394 4572 5642 7804 5127 8501 11010 13860 14490 22120 7218 7704 16740 8388 5150 5792 20070 15180 19130 4927 3670 21370 5390 15640 13170 10860 17420 5157 5465 2925 10740 9744 5198 2867 11210 6144 17610 7911 4095 28290 15940 5560 4765 4928 23620 24880 24530 21640 17300 6982 7768 5748 7805 4675 8072 6193 8707 4380 3907 6261 13750 27870 16640 4794 8140 24000 6666 7973 24120 5913 5186 6236 10340 6507 5356 12060
2021-03-12 2845 4940 8469 8047 9397 9644 11480 3793 23130 30000 17740 4191 17530 8007 7770 8114 13210 21970 98430 6799 17520 9083 5769 24870 4625 24950 6908 46300 10700 6512 27860 6861 14150 29920 5879 24000 6083 9027 6826 9692 16690 13850 5464 13840 6898 9876 8203 8198 15380 12050 12510 3672 8916 20190 21150 5995 4754 4169 7565 11070 3092 5264 13820 2512 36900 22980 2698 7772 30450 8338 7151 10150 4117 19610 2864 21690 11570 7773 25900 30250 2889 4059 4773 8111 6037 4451 17250 9255 8585 6496 5616 2963 7211 29470 12290 5131 6838 4888 5131 5233 8030 3058 4672 13450 7895 6297 3771 10180 5429 22030 7222 11740 4118 12710 4963 20470 7828 7476 20180 4205 8592 6188 6907 26550 6713 8112 4827 25680 5854 5575 24120 7562 7654 7230 6688 14700 8725 5723 7364 18280 11910 31890 17150 23860 9189 58920 34840 4852 21370 6402 6725 47850 19310 12550 3736 2753 50870 7882 25840 2507 3368 15860 2142 3180 6723 12070 19490 4325 6026 6866 22800 8178 34870 1938 5785 8049 6196 5342 8356 2949 9835 12030 4095 5847 17460 16830 7261 29860 8202 4809 22030 9133 9490 14730 8894 13950 13370 10600 32220 9100 5976 9132 4462 10560 2530 20420 6348 5915 4858 19830 6202 5357 6747 7641 1586 1814 22330 33050 5371 5112 23640 4639 6781 40580 14710 14870 14120 5852 4703 5608 7131 14790 4904 6968 4427 5397 4581 5653 7827 5144 8517 11020 13880 14510 22140 7226 7717 16760 8394 5155 5812 20110 15210 19150 4939 3681 21400 5394 15650 13190 10890 17450 5158 5472 2933 10750 9764 5207 2873 11220 6156 17630 7911 4096 28320 15970 5561 4766 4932 23690 24910 24550 21660 17320 7012 7782 5755 7810 4681 8087 6205 8726 4398 3912 6274 13760 27910 16670 4799 8153 24020 6678 7990 24150 5931 5189 6247 10350 6523 5379 12080
2021-03-13 2848 4946 8476 8054 9410 9654 11490 3797 23150 30060 17780 4193 17530 8020 7788 8122 13210 21980 98550 6818 17550 9092 5776 24900 4637 24970 6917 46400 10720 6532 27870 6865 14160 29950 5886 24010 6087 9034 6830 9698 16700 13900 5469 13850 6902 9881 8212 8202 15400 12080 12510 3677 8924 20210 21190 6002 4756 4175 7574 11080 3100 5279 13830 2513 36970 23000 2702 7779 30460 8352 7167 10160 4129 19630 2873 21720 11580 7784 25910 30280 2891 4066 4778 8126 6046 4457 17290 9262 8599 6498 5623 2966 7219 29500 12290 5135 6844 4896 5136 5246 8039 3066 4685 13470 7911 6302 3776 10190 5431 22050 7229 11750 4125 12720 4977 20480 7838 7492 20200 4211 8611 6192 6915 26570 6715 8121 4834 25700 5869 5579 24130 7576 7663 7239 6692 14710 8733 5728 7376 18320 11920 31940 17160 23880 9196 59020 34880 4856 21390 6409 6738 47850 19330 12550 3741 2765 50930 7914 25850 2512 3376 15870 2143 3183 6729 12070 19520 4331 6034 6881 22830 8193 34900 1940 5791 8073 6199 5349 8375 2949 9842 12050 4103 5873 17470 16860 7270 29910 8208 4814 22050 9138 9502 14770 8902 13960 13390 10610 32240 9115 5996 9143 4470 10560 2536 20450 6360 5924 4860 19870 6213 5365 6767 7648 1590 1815 22360 33070 5378 5112 23680 4641 6787 40630 14720 14890 14140 5856 4709 5617 7140 14800 4919 6975 4431 5399 4587 5661 7847 5151 8530 11020 13900 14530 22160 7232 7728 16780 8399 5166 5828 20150 15250 19170 4943 3690 21420 5397 15660 13200 10920 17470 5163 5477 2940 10760 9779 5212 2877 11240 6166 17640 7912 4097 28340 15990 5563 4767 4935 23740 24940 24570 21680 17340 7036 7794 5760 7814 4686 8099 6210 8739 4413 3916 6281 13770 27940 16680 4804 8163 24030 6687 8003 24170 5944 5197 6256 10360 6535 5386 12100
2021-03-14 2852 4952 8488 8059 9431 9659 11500 3801 23160 30110 17820 4196 17540 8033 7805 8128 13210 21990 98670 6835 17570 9096 5782 24920 4646 24990 6925 46490 10730 6552 27880 6869 14170 29960 5894 24020 6095 9040 6843 9705 16720 13930 5474 13870 6903 9887 8221 8206 15410 12120 12520 3682 8932 20250 21230 6013 4757 4182 7583 11090 3108 5293 13830 2515 37020 23030 2705 7789 30470 8366 7179 10170 4139 19650 2882 21750 11600 7794 25940 30310 2893 4074 4783 8141 6056 4462 17300 9262 8613 6502 5635 2969 7227 29530 12290 5140 6851 4903 5142 5258 8048 3073 4696 13490 7918 6305 3778 10200 5432 22080 7236 11760 4132 12740 4989 20490 7847 7507 20220 4216 8630 6198 6922 26580 6717 8129 4841 25730 5883 5586 24140 7587 7671 7249 6696 14720 8741 5732 7387 18370 11930 32000 17160 23900 9201 59080 34930 4862 21400 6418 6751 47860 19360 12560 3744 2776 50980 7948 25870 2517 3380 15880 2144 3186 6737 12070 19550 4337 6038 6888 22860 8208 34930 1942 5796 8097 6204 5355 8395 2949 9848 12080 4112 5898 17480 16870 7278 29960 8219 4819 22080 9144 9513 14810 8913 13970 13420 10620 32260 9122 6015 9152 4478 10570 2542 20490 6368 5933 4862 19910 6223 5372 6785 7655 1594 1816 22390 33100 5384 5112 23730 4643 6793 40680 14730 14910 14150 5859 4715 5626 7159 14810 4935 6982 4435 5402 4593 5669 7866 5161 8532 11030 13920 14540 22170 7238 7738 16790 8404 5174 5844 20190 15270 19190 4950 3699 21440 5399 15670 13210 10950 17490 5169 5482 2947 10760 9793 5216 2881 11250 6174 17660 7915 4099 28350 16010 5565 4769 4938 23790 24960 24590 21690 17360 7059 7804 5765 7818 4691 8111 6216 8755 4427 3920 6287 13780 27970 16680 4809 8174 24040 6696 8014 24190 5956 5201 6265 10370 6547 5396 12120
2021-03-15 2854 4958 8504 8072 9450 9660 11520 3805 23180 30160 17880 4201 17560 8045 7836 8133 13220 22010 98830 6850 17600 9108 5788 24970 4663 25010 6932 46610 10740 6570 27910 6873 14190 29990 5907 24030 6100 9045 6851 9717 16740 13980 5479 13880 6905 9898 8232 8210 15430 12150 12520 3686 8940 20280 21270 6023 4760 4186 7600 11090 3114 5313 13850 2516 37090 23070 2708 7796 30480 8379 7199 10170 4148 19670 2891 21820 11610 7802 25960 30350 2894 4083 4792 8154 6066 4467 17340 9268 8633 6506 5642 2971 7234 29550 12290 5144 6856 4908 5151 5280 8055 3080 4706 13510 7934 6314 3781 10210 5436 22110 7243 11770 4138 12750 5000 20500 7854 7519 20230 4220 8646 6203 6929 26600 6719 8137 4849 25760 5897 5590 24160 7601 7684 7261 6699 14730 8747 5738 7401 18430 11940 32070 17170 23920 9210 59230 34980 4867 21420 6436 6762 47860 19380 12570 3747 2786 51060 7977 25880 2521 3394 15890 2145 3191 6742 12080 19570 4342 6044 6900 22890 8223 34960 1944 5803 8122 6210 5362 8416 2950 9862 12110 4119 5919 17510 16900 7286 30010 8230 4824 22110 9155 9523 14840 8927 13970 13450 10630 32280 9141 6034 9168 4485 10580 2546 20530 6379 5941 4863 19960 6233 5380 6799 7661 1596 1817 22430 33150 5390 5118 23770 4646 6797 40760 14750 14930 14180 5863 4719 5633 7181 14830 4961 6990 4439 5405 4598 5676 7884 5175 8538 11030 13950 14560 22180 7244 7747 16820 8408 5192 5858 20230 15310 19210 4963 3707 21480 5400 15680 13220 10970 17540 5169 5486 2953 10770 9804 5224 2884 11260 6180 17670 7915 4101 28370 16030 5566 4770 4940 23860 24980 24610 21710 17380 7079 7813 5771 7821 4696 8128 6228 8782 4439 3924 6295 13790 28020 16710 4814 8184 24060 6704 8024 24220 5966 5212 6274 10370 6556 5412 12130
2021-03-16 2856 4963 8517 8089 9466 9664 11540 3808 23190 30200 17930 4204 17580 8056 7858 8139 13230 22020 98970 6864 17620 9121 5795 25010 4679 25030 6939 46750 10750 6587 27930 6876 14200 30020 5915 24040 6106 9050 6864 9727 16760 14000 5484 13890 6912 9906 8237 8214 15440 12180 12530 3690 8948 20310 21300 6032 4765 4190 7610 11100 3119 5332 13860 2518 37150 23110 2711 7806 30490 8392 7216 10180 4156 19700 2900 21870 11620 7809 25990 30400 2895 4093 4797 8167 6077 4472 17380 9286 8642 6507 5655 2973 7240 29580 12300 5148 6861 4913 5161 5304 8057 3086 4716 13530 7946 6320 3788 10220 5445 22130 7250 11780 4144 12760 5010 20510 7861 7531 20250 4223 8663 6208 6936 26610 6720 8147 4857 25790 5911 5592 24190 7618 7697 7269 6702 14740 8754 5743 7414 18490 11950 32130 17180 23940 9219 59350 35050 4870 21430 6452 6774 47910 19410 12580 3749 2795 51130 7988 25900 2526 3400 15900 2145 3194 6747 12100 19600 4347 6052 6910 22920 8236 34980 1945 5811 8146 6216 5369 8437 2952 9880 12130 4127 5940 17530 16920 7294 30060 8244 4829 22130 9169 9532 14900 8937 13990 13490 10640 32300 9148 6052 9180 4492 10590 2550 20580 6384 5949 4864 20010 6242 5387 6812 7666 1598 1817 22480 33190 5394 5122 23800 4648 6801 40830 14770 14950 14210 5868 4723 5641 7194 14850 4976 6998 4442 5407 4602 5683 7902 5187 8547 11040 13980 14570 22200 7250 7756 16840 8413 5203 5871 20270 15330 19230 4977 3715 21520 5402 15690 13230 11000 17580 5176 5490 2959 10790 9813 5232 2887 11270 6186 17680 7917 4102 28390 16060 5569 4771 4943 23930 25020 24630 21730 17400 7098 7821 5772 7825 4701 8135 6234 8796 4451 3928 6307 13810 28070 16750 4819 8194 24080 6712 8033 24240 5975 5222 6283 10380 6564 5428 12150

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-10 to 2021-03-16

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-09 2830 4920 8394 8004 9248 9608 11389 3777 23080 29790 17558 4158 17460 7957 7688 8069 13166 21915 97783 6727 17422 9013 5748 24740 4570 24867 6878 45849 10638 6435 27799 6820 14124 29864 5832 23977 6068 8999 6811 9641 16611 13669 5451 13781 6888 9861 8132 8182 15341 11910 12487 3651 8886 20121 20988 5947 4736 4140 7515 11044 3061 5210 13772 2509 36575 22838 2683 7731 30415 8286 7084 10125 4072 19527 2834 21559 11430 7731 25812 30161 2879 4040 4747 8053 6011 4434 17123 9229 8521 6486 5571 2948 7182 29344 12273 5113 6810 4856 5101 5132 7989 3030 4624 13359 7834 6273 3746 10138 5414 21923 7201 11693 4092 12663 4909 20444 7792 7414 20124 4181 8525 6154 6878 26509 6702 8069 4775 25580 5805 5550 24054 7453 7591 7217 6669 14655 8696 5714 7297 18126 11888 31692 17132 23785 9158 58595 34642 4822 21319 6348 6680 47790 19224 12527 3717 2705 50626 7719 25782 2488 3342 15827 2137 3160 6694 12032 19409 4302 5982 6843 22677 8124 34782 1930 5766 7976 6166 5323 8305 2943 9788 11927 4065 5748 17384 16765 7228 29691 8155 4791 21956 9115 9443 14504 8847 13916 13233 10574 32156 9040 5907 9078 4434 10512 2506 20260 6293 5880 4839 19611 6166 5331 6666 7617 1569 1810 22192 32896 5342 5094 23446 4633 6756 40381 14634 14797 14067 5823 4679 5576 7031 14720 4815 6952 4411 5389 4556 5621 7757 5110 8458 10991 13825 14452 22074 7204 7675 16684 8377 5135 5752 19979 15086 19088 4890 3646 21286 5382 15623 13134 10788 17362 5131 5452 2907 10696 9703 5176 2857 11174 6119 17589 7900 4094 28246 15895 5554 4763 4922 23463 24786 24485 21547 17260 6921 7738 5722 7792 4664 8013 6158 8656 4345 3897 6221 13703 27793 16608 4783 8116 23968 6643 7941 24059 5878 5166 6215 10310 6474 5313 12023
2021-03-10 2832 4928 8404 8017 9261 9614 11410 3782 23100 29820 17610 4162 17470 7968 7711 8078 13180 21930 97910 6741 17450 9026 5758 24780 4583 24880 6883 45970 10650 6448 27820 6826 14130 29890 5838 23990 6073 9004 6816 9650 16630 13700 5457 13790 6895 9870 8141 8186 15360 11940 12490 3656 8891 20150 21020 5955 4740 4145 7526 11060 3065 5225 13780 2511 36640 22870 2685 7739 30440 8300 7101 10130 4080 19550 2841 21620 11450 7738 25840 30200 2883 4048 4751 8060 6025 4440 17160 9249 8529 6487 5579 2951 7189 29360 12280 5116 6826 4860 5109 5147 7993 3033 4632 13380 7846 6279 3751 10150 5419 21940 7207 11700 4100 12670 4920 20450 7798 7425 20140 4185 8542 6157 6883 26520 6708 8077 4783 25610 5817 5553 24080 7469 7602 7221 6672 14670 8702 5724 7312 18190 11900 31760 17140 23810 9164 58700 34690 4827 21330 6361 6693 47820 19250 12530 3719 2706 50690 7735 25800 2494 3351 15840 2138 3164 6699 12050 19440 4307 5991 6853 22710 8136 34800 1931 5771 8005 6170 5331 8330 2944 9799 11950 4073 5769 17410 16790 7235 29730 8163 4798 21990 9124 9452 14550 8857 13930 13260 10580 32170 9056 5928 9088 4442 10520 2512 20300 6299 5890 4841 19670 6175 5336 6679 7622 1573 1812 22230 32930 5345 5100 23470 4640 6760 40460 14650 14820 14090 5828 4682 5584 7047 14740 4834 6962 4414 5393 4560 5628 7776 5121 8465 11010 13850 14470 22080 7210 7680 16710 8383 5144 5761 20020 15120 19120 4906 3652 21320 5386 15630 13140 10820 17390 5138 5457 2911 10700 9711 5184 2860 11180 6125 17600 7901 4099 28260 15910 5556 4765 4928 23520 24810 24500 21570 17280 6931 7746 5727 7796 4670 8024 6168 8671 4358 3901 6230 13720 27830 16630 4788 8127 23980 6650 7945 24080 5886 5177 6224 10320 6478 5333 12040
2021-03-11 2834 4935 8415 8031 9284 9620 11420 3786 23110 29850 17670 4166 17490 7981 7732 8086 13200 21940 98040 6758 17470 9041 5764 24820 4594 24900 6889 46080 10660 6460 27840 6833 14140 29910 5841 24000 6077 9010 6823 9662 16650 13720 5461 13810 6901 9876 8146 8190 15380 11970 12500 3662 8896 20180 21060 5964 4743 4150 7535 11080 3071 5236 13790 2513 36700 22900 2689 7748 30450 8315 7114 10140 4090 19580 2851 21650 11470 7749 25860 30230 2888 4056 4757 8067 6034 4446 17180 9268 8536 6489 5589 2954 7195 29380 12290 5120 6841 4866 5114 5169 7999 3036 4644 13400 7862 6284 3753 10160 5421 21960 7211 11710 4106 12690 4932 20460 7807 7440 20150 4189 8560 6163 6891 26530 6717 8083 4793 25640 5827 5558 24100 7489 7619 7227 6676 14680 8707 5729 7328 18230 11900 31810 17150 23820 9169 58810 34750 4832 21340 6371 6705 47850 19270 12540 3723 2719 50740 7750 25820 2498 3358 15850 2140 3169 6703 12070 19460 4311 5997 6861 22740 8150 34830 1933 5774 8029 6175 5338 8349 2945 9811 11970 4079 5792 17430 16810 7241 29770 8173 4805 22010 9130 9462 14580 8869 13940 13290 10590 32190 9067 5946 9094 4450 10530 2517 20340 6305 5898 4847 19720 6184 5339 6697 7626 1577 1814 22260 32960 5351 5104 23500 4646 6765 40520 14670 14830 14100 5831 4687 5593 7064 14750 4853 6976 4418 5398 4566 5636 7792 5130 8475 11030 13860 14480 22100 7216 7685 16720 8389 5153 5770 20050 15140 19160 4915 3661 21340 5390 15640 13150 10840 17420 5148 5462 2914 10710 9721 5188 2864 11190 6133 17620 7906 4104 28280 15920 5558 4767 4936 23570 24840 24520 21590 17300 6944 7758 5731 7800 4674 8036 6175 8682 4372 3905 6243 13740 27860 16650 4791 8136 24000 6658 7955 24090 5899 5186 6233 10340 6487 5346 12050
2021-03-12 2837 4942 8427 8042 9298 9626 11440 3788 23130 29870 17710 4168 17500 7992 7748 8093 13210 21940 98160 6772 17500 9052 5770 24840 4606 24910 6895 46180 10680 6470 27860 6839 14150 29940 5845 24010 6083 9015 6830 9671 16670 13730 5465 13820 6907 9880 8151 8195 15390 11990 12500 3666 8901 20200 21090 5972 4746 4155 7541 11090 3076 5243 13800 2515 36750 22930 2692 7753 30470 8330 7130 10140 4099 19600 2863 21670 11490 7758 25880 30260 2892 4064 4759 8074 6044 4453 17200 9281 8544 6492 5598 2956 7201 29390 12300 5123 6858 4871 5119 5183 8003 3040 4655 13420 7872 6287 3757 10170 5422 21970 7216 11720 4112 12700 4943 20470 7813 7453 20160 4193 8576 6168 6897 26540 6725 8089 4802 25670 5837 5560 24120 7507 7631 7232 6679 14690 8712 5734 7340 18270 11910 31870 17160 23840 9173 58910 34810 4837 21340 6380 6716 47880 19290 12540 3725 2725 50800 7764 25830 2502 3366 15860 2142 3172 6708 12080 19480 4315 6002 6867 22770 8163 34850 1935 5780 8054 6179 5344 8370 2947 9818 11990 4085 5813 17440 16820 7246 29800 8184 4811 22030 9135 9471 14610 8877 13960 13320 10590 32210 9078 5962 9099 4457 10540 2521 20360 6309 5906 4849 19770 6193 5341 6713 7631 1581 1816 22300 32980 5356 5107 23520 4651 6769 40580 14680 14840 14110 5834 4691 5600 7086 14760 4873 6986 4421 5402 4570 5646 7809 5144 8483 11040 13880 14480 22110 7222 7690 16740 8394 5159 5778 20080 15160 19180 4925 3668 21360 5394 15650 13160 10870 17450 5155 5466 2917 10720 9729 5193 2867 11200 6139 17630 7908 4107 28290 15930 5561 4769 4942 23630 24860 24530 21610 17320 6955 7767 5735 7802 4678 8044 6180 8690 4384 3908 6253 13750 27880 16670 4794 8145 24030 6665 7964 24110 5907 5193 6241 10360 6495 5363 12070
2021-03-13 2839 4947 8432 8050 9305 9633 11450 3791 23140 29890 17760 4169 17510 8002 7764 8100 13230 21950 98260 6786 17520 9063 5775 24870 4616 24920 6901 46270 10690 6479 27880 6844 14150 29960 5847 24020 6086 9019 6836 9677 16680 13760 5469 13830 6913 9886 8154 8198 15410 12010 12500 3669 8904 20210 21120 5979 4748 4158 7546 11110 3079 5253 13800 2517 36800 22950 2694 7757 30480 8342 7143 10150 4106 19630 2871 21690 11500 7765 25900 30280 2895 4072 4763 8081 6054 4458 17220 9294 8551 6492 5603 2958 7206 29400 12300 5125 6870 4875 5123 5191 8007 3044 4663 13440 7883 6291 3760 10170 5422 21980 7221 11720 4117 12710 4952 20470 7820 7462 20170 4196 8591 6172 6903 26550 6730 8094 4808 25690 5846 5562 24140 7520 7641 7237 6681 14700 8716 5740 7349 18310 11910 31910 17170 23860 9176 58990 34840 4841 21350 6388 6726 47910 19310 12540 3728 2729 50840 7775 25840 2506 3374 15870 2144 3176 6712 12090 19510 4318 6008 6874 22800 8173 34870 1936 5784 8076 6182 5349 8390 2947 9824 12010 4090 5832 17460 16840 7251 29830 8188 4816 22050 9138 9477 14640 8885 13980 13340 10600 32230 9091 5978 9104 4463 10540 2524 20390 6313 5913 4851 19800 6201 5343 6725 7635 1584 1818 22320 32990 5359 5109 23550 4657 6773 40630 14690 14850 14120 5836 4694 5605 7095 14760 4888 6993 4423 5406 4575 5649 7822 5152 8489 11060 13890 14490 22120 7227 7693 16750 8398 5168 5785 20100 15190 19200 4929 3672 21380 5398 15660 13170 10890 17470 5162 5470 2920 10730 9737 5196 2870 11210 6144 17640 7911 4111 28310 15950 5564 4771 4946 23670 24890 24550 21620 17340 6964 7776 5738 7804 4683 8051 6183 8694 4396 3911 6259 13760 27890 16680 4796 8153 24040 6668 7972 24110 5915 5201 6247 10370 6501 5371 12080
2021-03-14 2840 4952 8442 8057 9322 9637 11460 3793 23150 29900 17800 4170 17530 8011 7782 8106 13240 21960 98380 6799 17540 9072 5780 24890 4627 24930 6906 46370 10690 6487 27900 6848 14160 29980 5851 24030 6090 9023 6846 9685 16690 13780 5473 13840 6918 9892 8157 8202 15420 12030 12510 3672 8907 20240 21150 5986 4749 4161 7552 11120 3083 5263 13810 2518 36840 22970 2697 7765 30500 8355 7155 10160 4112 19650 2881 21710 11520 7773 25920 30300 2898 4079 4767 8086 6064 4461 17230 9304 8560 6494 5612 2959 7212 29420 12310 5127 6883 4879 5128 5203 8012 3047 4670 13450 7890 6294 3761 10180 5423 22000 7225 11730 4122 12720 4960 20480 7827 7470 20170 4199 8607 6178 6908 26560 6734 8099 4815 25720 5855 5566 24160 7532 7651 7244 6683 14710 8720 5746 7358 18350 11920 31960 17180 23870 9179 59040 34880 4845 21360 6398 6736 47940 19330 12550 3730 2739 50890 7790 25860 2509 3380 15880 2146 3179 6715 12100 19530 4322 6013 6879 22830 8186 34890 1938 5788 8096 6185 5355 8411 2947 9829 12030 4095 5849 17480 16850 7255 29870 8196 4822 22070 9143 9485 14660 8896 13990 13360 10610 32240 9101 5994 9108 4470 10550 2528 20420 6316 5919 4854 19840 6209 5345 6737 7639 1586 1819 22350 33000 5362 5113 23570 4662 6777 40680 14690 14860 14130 5838 4697 5613 7112 14770 4906 7000 4425 5408 4579 5654 7836 5162 8492 11070 13910 14500 22130 7232 7697 16760 8403 5176 5792 20130 15210 19230 4936 3676 21400 5401 15670 13170 10920 17490 5172 5474 2922 10730 9746 5199 2872 11220 6149 17650 7916 4115 28320 15950 5567 4773 4952 23710 24910 24560 21640 17350 6974 7784 5741 7806 4687 8057 6188 8702 4407 3913 6264 13770 27900 16690 4799 8162 24050 6672 7982 24130 5923 5207 6251 10380 6506 5382 12100
2021-03-15 2843 4958 8458 8070 9353 9643 11480 3796 23160 29930 17860 4174 17540 8021 7805 8114 13250 21960 98520 6811 17570 9082 5787 24940 4642 24950 6912 46470 10700 6498 27910 6853 14170 30010 5855 24040 6093 9027 6855 9699 16710 13800 5478 13840 6924 9900 8161 8207 15440 12060 12510 3676 8909 20280 21180 5994 4751 4163 7561 11130 3089 5276 13810 2520 36890 23000 2700 7770 30510 8368 7174 10160 4119 19670 2891 21750 11540 7780 25950 30340 2900 4089 4776 8091 6075 4466 17250 9324 8569 6498 5618 2960 7217 29430 12320 5129 6897 4883 5134 5229 8017 3050 4679 13470 7901 6301 3763 10190 5425 22010 7229 11730 4128 12730 4969 20480 7834 7485 20180 4202 8623 6185 6914 26570 6741 8105 4824 25740 5866 5569 24180 7553 7666 7252 6685 14720 8726 5753 7375 18390 11930 32020 17190 23880 9185 59160 34950 4848 21360 6409 6747 47980 19350 12560 3732 2751 50950 7805 25870 2513 3390 15890 2148 3182 6718 12120 19550 4325 6018 6888 22860 8199 34900 1939 5792 8122 6189 5360 8432 2948 9839 12050 4101 5868 17500 16880 7260 29900 8206 4828 22090 9148 9491 14700 8909 14000 13390 10610 32260 9115 6010 9114 4477 10560 2531 20470 6320 5926 4858 19890 6218 5348 6748 7643 1589 1820 22390 33040 5365 5121 23600 4668 6780 40740 14710 14870 14150 5842 4701 5623 7139 14790 4930 7011 4428 5412 4583 5663 7851 5174 8496 11080 13930 14510 22140 7237 7701 16790 8407 5191 5799 20160 15240 19250 4950 3683 21430 5404 15680 13180 10940 17530 5179 5478 2925 10750 9753 5204 2875 11220 6154 17660 7921 4118 28330 15970 5570 4775 4957 23770 24930 24580 21660 17370 6984 7791 5746 7808 4691 8066 6197 8716 4418 3916 6271 13780 27930 16720 4801 8170 24080 6676 7998 24140 5934 5218 6266 10390 6511 5398 12110
2021-03-16 2844 4964 8471 8087 9370 9648 11500 3798 23170 29950 17910 4177 17560 8031 7826 8121 13270 21970 98660 6824 17590 9095 5794 24970 4657 24960 6919 46590 10710 6506 27940 6858 14180 30030 5860 24050 6098 9031 6864 9710 16730 13820 5482 13850 6932 9906 8164 8211 15450 12080 12520 3680 8913 20300 21210 6003 4754 4165 7567 11150 3093 5287 13820 2522 36950 23030 2702 7777 30530 8380 7187 10170 4125 19700 2901 21780 11550 7787 25980 30370 2903 4100 4779 8097 6085 4472 17270 9340 8577 6500 5628 2961 7222 29450 12320 5131 6912 4887 5140 5254 8021 3053 4687 13490 7908 6306 3767 10200 5427 22020 7233 11740 4133 12740 4978 20490 7840 7494 20190 4206 8638 6192 6919 26580 6749 8112 4832 25770 5876 5571 24200 7576 7680 7257 6687 14730 8730 5761 7385 18440 11940 32080 17200 23900 9190 59250 35020 4852 21370 6422 6757 48020 19370 12560 3733 2762 51000 7813 25890 2516 3396 15900 2149 3186 6722 12140 19580 4329 6025 6895 22880 8214 34930 1940 5796 8148 6193 5366 8453 2949 9848 12080 4106 5886 17520 16890 7265 29940 8219 4833 22120 9153 9496 14750 8921 14010 13420 10620 32280 9127 6026 9120 4483 10560 2533 20520 6323 5932 4860 19960 6226 5351 6759 7648 1592 1821 22420 33060 5369 5126 23620 4674 6783 40800 14720 14890 14160 5845 4704 5630 7160 14800 4949 7027 4430 5414 4588 5667 7866 5184 8502 11100 13940 14520 22150 7242 7705 16800 8411 5201 5806 20190 15260 19270 4962 3690 21460 5407 15690 13190 10970 17560 5189 5482 2926 10760 9760 5207 2878 11230 6159 17670 7926 4120 28340 15980 5574 4777 4961 23830 24960 24590 21680 17390 6993 7799 5749 7810 4695 8073 6202 8725 4429 3919 6283 13790 27950 16740 4803 8178 24100 6679 8007 24150 5943 5226 6277 10410 6520 5410 12130

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.