COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-03-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-03-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-03-12

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)12-2712-3012-2712-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2612-2310-1312-2712-2312-282021-01-1112-3012-2712-2212-2912-2712-272021-01-032021-01-072021-01-0111-1512-2812-2110-2912-2212-2712-2712-1312-2712-2812-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3012-2711-0312-2112-2612-2512-0812-2712-2112-212021-01-0412-2212-2912-2612-2212-212021-01-0212-2112-212021-01-0212-2612-2712-2812-2912-2212-2212-3012-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-212021-01-022021-02-2510-1412-2712-0712-2612-2712-2412-2912-2412-2111-0212-2610-3112-2712-2912-2812-2112-2512-2212-2512-1412-232021-01-0612-2112-2312-2812-1812-282021-01-0412-2712-2612-2112-2712-2212-2112-2712-2112-2712-2212-2112-2112-2112-2212-2712-2712-2212-2212-1312-2712-1412-2812-2112-2912-2712-2812-2412-2512-212021-01-0112-2812-2712-2212-2812-2812-2510-2812-2112-2712-2712-2912-3012-2712-2812-2112-2712-2711-2912-2712-2712-2212-212021-01-0412-302021-01-0312-2211-0412-2912-2112-2112-2112-2212-2512-2212-2612-2812-292021-01-0311-0412-2812-0812-2710-2512-2612-2111-0412-2112-3011-0312-212021-01-0412-2712-2112-3012-2912-2112-2712-2812-2712-2712-312021-01-0612-292021-01-0212-2912-212021-01-062021-01-0512-2212-2812-2112-2712-2812-1312-3112-1310-1712-3012-2712-2712-252021-01-2612-2812-2912-292021-01-0312-2112-2712-2912-2412-2712-3012-2512-2712-2112-2212-2112-2812-2612-252021-01-0412-2211-0912-2412-2112-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-212021-01-0312-2510-3112-2212-2812-2111-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-2512-2812-3012-2312-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2312-2112-2112-1212-2312-3012-2112-2212-2812-2212-2612-2110-2812-2812-2712-1812-2512-2112-2112-2212-2112-2712-2512-2012-1312-2812-0712-2212-2712-2712-2912-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-272021-01-0112-2812-3012-2112-3012-2612-28
Peak daily increment 61 88 97 173 109 172 178 78 476 588 191 59 326 131 108 108 232 423 1251 74 158 66 58 158 49 485 141 441 228 107 525 155 310 317 107 505 93 188 62 123 123 141 98 255 87 149 171 173 301 90 265 52 200 250 283 60 90 71 66 244 53 95 284 35 367 289 38 184 598 151 69 189 72 246 41 249 187 118 323 538 60 53 76 160 110 52 224 102 164 147 108 54 143 590 271 95 74 53 89 72 125 53 38 122 80 92 56 180 90 449 120 220 59 200 57 398 175 103 339 101 109 135 120 477 100 155 47 445 57 116 450 139 84 134 236 275 148 71 100 297 197 190 311 429 107 380 287 104 444 71 113 730 272 200 89 37 377 90 420 29 46 297 49 62 148 118 362 79 105 63 123 85 726 23 50 159 105 50 108 59 124 122 41 55 275 158 122 225 90 44 125 127 109 154 118 201 104 174 621 83 81 173 52 187 40 133 139 56 96 199 80 86 60 175 36 26 163 451 42 82 405 65 130 244 210 244 167 98 107 101 69 180 27 42 85 82 96 78 110 80 67 102 114 245 294 456 131 151 219 93 57 112 177 132 194 66 42 202 105 322 189 181 125 55 108 46 140 321 91 44 138 123 369 138 49 11 558 153 92 107 85 258 324 451 387 229 77 139 117 160 65 154 87 30 83 42 67 115 216 219 263 83 149 432 106 139 375 106 115 96 173 71 69 186
Days since peak 75 72 75 81 75 94 81 79 76 79 150 75 79 74 60 72 75 80 73 75 75 68 64 70 117 74 81 134 80 75 75 89 75 74 77 81 76 80 72 72 75 129 81 76 77 94 75 81 81 67 80 73 76 80 81 69 81 81 69 76 75 74 73 80 80 72 74 75 75 81 77 81 81 69 15 149 75 95 76 75 78 73 78 81 130 76 132 75 73 74 81 77 80 77 88 79 65 81 79 74 84 74 67 75 76 81 75 80 81 75 81 75 80 81 81 81 80 75 75 80 80 89 75 88 74 81 73 75 74 78 77 81 70 74 75 80 74 74 77 135 81 75 75 73 72 75 74 81 75 75 103 75 75 80 81 67 72 68 80 128 73 81 81 81 80 77 80 76 74 73 68 128 74 94 75 138 76 81 128 81 72 129 81 67 75 81 72 73 81 75 74 75 75 71 65 73 69 73 81 65 66 80 74 81 75 74 89 71 89 146 72 75 75 77 45 74 73 73 68 81 75 73 78 75 72 77 75 81 80 81 74 76 77 67 80 123 78 81 82 68 74 75 80 81 88 74 76 81 68 77 132 80 74 81 131 81 79 80 75 81 95 77 74 72 79 72 67 75 81 79 81 81 90 79 72 81 80 74 80 76 81 135 74 75 84 77 81 81 80 81 75 77 82 89 74 95 80 75 75 73 73 80 80 74 75 80 75 70 74 72 81 72 76 74
Last total 2836 4933 8417 8031 9287 9623 11421 3784 23115 29844 17742 4169 17483 7987 7741 8084 13210 21940 98158 6771 17501 9039 5788 24861 4606 24926 6896 46188 10661 6477 27868 6823 14160 29937 5847 24036 6093 9009 6837 9674 16665 13778 5472 13814 6914 9884 8144 8215 15399 11972 12503 3663 8899 20215 21067 5968 4744 4152 7562 11084 3070 5272 13815 2513 36749 22938 2697 7752 30484 8304 7146 10134 4096 19588 2844 21728 11492 7748 25871 30242 2891 4064 4769 8073 6074 4478 17230 9286 8551 6501 5606 2950 7202 29390 12298 5118 6837 4870 5121 5175 8002 3033 4649 13396 7881 6282 3761 10156 5428 21964 7219 11724 4108 12701 4940 20481 7809 7440 20192 4200 8575 6161 6900 26555 6735 8089 4788 25689 5827 5567 24122 7500 7615 7255 6683 14677 8719 5744 7343 18347 11928 31860 17164 23825 9182 58977 34833 4827 21356 6389 6711 47909 19353 12540 3719 2715 50868 7754 25822 2508 3355 15858 2149 3169 6703 12110 19498 4316 5997 6909 22768 8164 34855 1936 5789 8102 6182 5357 8403 2953 9833 12005 4087 5803 17451 16823 7244 29784 8204 4800 22068 9145 9465 14620 8885 13959 13316 10607 32213 9066 5957 9109 4457 10546 2538 20388 6306 5916 4846 19768 6199 5346 6701 7626 1575 1820 22319 33032 5359 5125 23509 4656 6770 40677 14683 14856 14151 5845 4698 5609 7068 14784 1597 4871 6999 4413 5400 4568 5631 7808 5154 8488 11043 13931 14481 22107 7228 7692 16753 8394 5162 5778 20109 15175 19186 4940 3664 21403 5388 15667 13160 10856 17475 5168 5464 2915 10715 9715 5192 2865 11195 6132 17619 7915 4111 968 28288 15944 5565 4775 4951 23663 24898 24532 21605 17328 6955 7755 5730 7795 4696 8029 6180 1142 8690 4377 3917 6261 13748 27932 16673 4800 8134 24026 6666 7973 24128 5903 5202 6248 10358 6497 5370 12051
Last daily increment 2 6 5 8 10 6 6 1 8 18 61 6 5 8 24 6 14 9 96 15 25 8 13 42 11 14 9 120 7 14 14 3 10 34 8 20 4 3 6 7 11 27 5 9 7 7 4 15 12 22 3 6 4 33 26 2 3 5 8 8 4 24 15 3 52 26 4 7 26 4 14 2 11 23 4 57 10 10 20 26 3 10 13 9 23 15 32 22 7 6 16 0 4 17 6 3 6 3 4 14 1 1 8 17 15 3 4 3 3 18 3 11 2 10 11 16 5 7 19 8 19 2 7 9 10 2 2 34 6 5 29 14 8 18 7 8 6 5 15 68 8 49 12 9 4 120 49 3 12 21 13 48 62 4 1 0 69 9 15 5 1 13 4 3 1 24 18 5 5 22 30 11 20 3 6 35 2 14 28 4 18 22 7 16 22 16 7 21 10 4 35 3 3 33 17 7 23 7 13 4 14 10 10 12 10 28 7 8 1 59 7 6 6 5 3 3 45 40 3 8 22 8 6 103 16 19 28 11 5 15 11 15 1 15 11 1 0 1 5 17 7 9 18 29 6 12 8 8 16 6 6 10 39 23 36 12 12 45 3 15 4 25 31 11 4 3 9 1 4 3 7 7 7 5 7 1 20 17 3 0 10 52 36 10 20 24 11 1 4 1 9 4 6 1 13 5 5 10 20 37 14 4 5 13 8 6 33 9 4 9 14 7 18 9
Last week 10 39 57 70 73 19 72 25 83 125 344 17 71 55 132 33 73 70 755 75 162 54 71 237 76 120 39 694 37 80 143 10 72 181 39 95 39 24 54 57 118 197 44 62 45 54 24 44 127 161 45 18 31 185 180 43 18 24 86 82 20 118 78 13 323 184 21 48 137 55 114 29 41 143 34 321 102 27 146 217 19 60 42 42 116 68 203 111 65 17 67 9 42 81 36 14 71 24 47 97 21 16 40 106 81 24 24 44 28 95 43 60 43 65 55 75 40 57 132 26 101 21 39 94 54 39 34 205 63 29 139 79 56 67 26 49 37 77 88 406 84 368 63 85 48 756 361 22 73 83 72 227 195 36 4 29 451 70 95 42 38 64 14 19 22 131 165 25 35 104 186 86 144 11 47 219 29 63 187 15 89 139 50 102 139 135 40 220 80 30 218 63 54 219 72 86 179 53 119 74 115 63 46 59 45 246 28 59 10 302 63 39 55 23 11 19 260 273 25 51 138 46 25 506 99 132 162 32 29 63 81 118 4 106 91 15 19 24 36 117 87 47 104 192 65 54 44 34 134 41 69 54 255 179 207 87 37 221 14 85 45 138 228 54 25 22 42 29 39 18 41 24 79 20 27 3 93 127 18 20 47 392 194 110 98 125 58 28 17 13 55 42 46 3 89 65 33 61 71 277 164 36 55 121 48 49 141 48 61 54 86 39 100 82
Previous peak date -- --10-27 --10-21 -- -- -- -- -- --10-04 -- --10-2810-18 -- --03-23 --10-1910-1110-2410-12 --10-29 --05-03 -- -- -- --10-1210-28 -- -- -- --10-0409-2910-25 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-13 -- --10-2910-13 --10-19 -- --10-11 -- -- --11-02 --10-0311-0211-01 -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-29 -- -- -- --10-20 -- -- -- -- --10-1109-27 -- -- -- --10-1110-3010-11 -- -- --10-21 -- --09-2710-2510-17 -- -- --10-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-28 --11-01 -- -- --10-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2709-29 --10-0709-2706-14 -- -- -- --09-29 -- -- -- --09-2210-26 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- --09-26 -- -- --10-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --11-0408-02 -- --09-30 -- --10-25 -- -- --11-03 --10-13 -- --11-0310-26 --10-1310-13 --10-18 --10-12 -- --11-02 --10-09 -- -- --10-1911-0111-03 --09-30 -- --09-2911-01 -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2110-13 --10-25 -- -- -- -- -- --10-06 -- -- --10-1810-12 --10-25 --10-06 -- -- -- --10-1810-29 -- --11-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-25 -- --10-12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --10-2010-17 --10-21 -- -- -- -- --10-05 -- -- -- --10-21 -- -- --10-04 -- -- --10-29 --11-03 --10-11 --10-06
Previous peak daily increment 82 62 29 77 72 95 164 99 54 235 135 55 71 321 57 70 159 40 131 34 117 53 62 68 293 144 20 165 55 31 32 55 75 41 129 71 25 71 31 56 65 43 52 59 360 152 86 540 75 530 611 61 73 391 51 58 68 610 256 82 102 95 43 41 42 196 64 43 67 237 232 85 183 435 113 65 24 70 76 118 182 125 31 127 177 46 90 48 138 134 58 22 91 320 137 38 31 65 130
Low between peaks 28 26 8 36 24 9 54 28 19 62 34 27 21 81 19 33 55 9 32 16 55 18 31 14 106 71 9 53 18 15 8 17 17 11 25 23 12 22 7 23 18 11 14 21 95 19 23 154 15 58 136 19 34 54 14 16 7 70 57 19 40 25 13 12 20 62 22 19 14 48 91 19 26 119 34 22 11 28 24 30 46 48 9 58 33 15 31 7 27 34 21 11 19 77 21 9 11 18 16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-03-13 to 2021-03-19

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-12 2836 4933 8417 8031 9287 9623 11421 3784 23115 29844 17742 4169 17483 7987 7741 8084 13210 21940 98158 6771 17501 9039 5788 24861 4606 24926 6896 46188 10661 6477 27868 6823 14160 29937 5847 24036 6093 9009 6837 9674 16665 13778 5472 13814 6914 9884 8144 8215 15399 11972 12503 3663 8899 20215 21067 5968 4744 4152 7562 11084 3070 5272 13815 2513 36749 22938 2697 7752 30484 8304 7146 10134 4096 19588 2844 21728 11492 7748 25871 30242 2891 4064 4769 8073 6074 4478 17230 9286 8551 6501 5606 2950 7202 29390 12298 5118 6837 4870 5121 5175 8002 3033 4649 13396 7881 6282 3761 10156 5428 21964 7219 11724 4108 12701 4940 20481 7809 7440 20192 4200 8575 6161 6900 26555 6735 8089 4788 25689 5827 5567 24122 7500 7615 7255 6683 14677 8719 5744 7343 18347 11928 31860 17164 23825 9182 58977 34833 4827 21356 6389 6711 47909 19353 12540 2715 50868 7754 25822 2508 3355 15858 2149 3169 6703 12110 19498 4316 5997 6909 22768 8164 34855 1936 5789 8102 6182 5357 8403 2953 9833 12005 4087 5803 17451 16823 7244 29784 8204 4800 22068 9145 9465 14620 8885 13959 13316 10607 32213 9066 5957 9109 4457 10546 2538 20388 6306 5916 4846 19768 6199 5346 6701 7626 1575 1820 22319 33032 5359 5125 23509 4656 6770 40677 14683 14856 14151 5845 4698 5609 7068 14784 4871 6999 4413 5400 4568 5631 7808 5154 8488 11043 13931 14481 22107 7228 7692 16753 8394 5162 5778 20109 15175 19186 4940 3664 21403 5388 15667 13160 10856 17475 5168 5464 2915 10715 9715 5192 2865 11195 6132 17619 7915 4111 28288 15944 5565 4775 4951 23663 24898 24532 21605 17328 6955 7755 5730 7795 4696 8029 6180 8690 4377 3917 6261 13748 27932 16673 4800 8134 24026 6666 7973 24128 5903 5202 6248 10358 6497 5370 12051
2021-03-13 2838 4935 8441 8053 9302 9640 11450 3787 23130 29860 17800 4180 17510 7997 7763 8101 13220 21950 98280 6776 17530 9064 5798 25000 4623 24940 6908 46320 10670 6487 27890 6832 14180 29970 5852 24040 6100 9013 6851 9688 16680 13790 5477 13830 6922 9886 8149 8223 15420 12000 12510 3667 8905 20240 21100 5980 4744 4158 7578 11090 3071 5279 13830 2513 36850 23040 2700 7758 30500 8315 7160 10140 4103 19630 2854 21730 11510 7754 25890 30270 2894 4074 4774 8080 6088 4488 17290 9316 8567 6502 5622 2951 7208 29430 12320 5121 6853 4872 5130 5206 8018 3042 4656 13430 7904 6293 3764 10160 5428 21980 7226 11740 4114 12720 4949 20490 7816 7451 20220 4204 8591 6172 6902 26560 6743 8098 4790 25720 5838 5570 24150 7536 7640 7256 6685 14690 8731 5751 7358 18370 11940 31930 17170 23840 9195 59160 34890 4831 21360 6394 6723 47950 19390 12550 2721 50930 7767 25840 2513 3369 15870 2152 3172 6710 12150 19530 4320 6005 6924 22800 8179 34890 1938 5793 8102 6185 5366 8428 2953 9853 12040 4094 5821 17470 16840 7252 29830 8212 4806 22100 9146 9474 14640 8895 13990 13350 10620 32260 9081 5974 9116 4464 10560 2543 20430 6309 5924 4851 19830 6210 5350 6712 7628 1578 1825 22380 33080 5364 5140 23580 4663 6776 40790 14710 14880 14160 5853 4704 5617 7105 14790 4890 7001 4416 5409 4572 5637 7824 5159 8504 11060 13960 14490 22130 7236 7697 16760 8401 5169 5786 20120 15200 19220 4941 3670 21470 5392 15670 13180 10880 17520 5206 5468 2919 10740 9735 5198 2868 11200 6139 17630 7931 4116 28310 15980 5569 4778 4959 23730 24940 24560 21630 17360 6966 7763 5731 7798 4723 8043 6194 8704 4388 3921 6273 13770 27960 16690 4804 8144 24050 6677 7982 24150 5911 5214 6259 10380 6511 5380 12080
2021-03-14 2843 4946 8463 8063 9359 9647 11470 3794 23160 29890 17850 4187 17520 8017 7786 8113 13230 21960 98360 6784 17560 9074 5819 25090 4636 24960 6915 46430 10690 6502 27920 6854 14190 29990 5860 24050 6120 9024 6864 9698 16700 13810 5481 13850 6928 9891 8164 8231 15430 12040 12520 3675 8917 20270 21170 6010 4744 4170 7603 11100 3079 5291 13840 2516 36930 23100 2703 7765 30520 8343 7174 10140 4120 19670 2869 21730 11540 7772 25910 30300 2897 4082 4780 8092 6088 4504 17320 9343 8579 6504 5640 2953 7219 29470 12340 5130 6878 4875 5144 5230 8025 3049 4665 13450 7917 6297 3764 10180 5429 22010 7235 11760 4124 12730 4970 20500 7830 7477 20240 4208 8615 6183 6907 26570 6772 8107 4794 25770 5852 5579 24180 7557 7656 7256 6689 14710 8740 5754 7375 18410 11950 31980 17190 23880 9203 59290 34940 4843 21370 6406 6739 47980 19430 12560 2746 50980 7774 25860 2518 3377 15890 2160 3179 6713 12180 19550 4327 6012 6953 22840 8197 34930 1940 5798 8109 6190 5388 8434 2953 9872 12070 4103 5861 17490 16850 7268 29900 8223 4816 22110 9151 9491 14660 8908 14000 13390 10630 32300 9094 6000 9125 4473 10580 2547 20470 6313 5935 4856 19880 6224 5353 6747 7629 1587 1831 22450 33140 5374 5155 23630 4674 6786 40890 14720 14910 14180 5860 4712 5626 7133 14800 4923 7005 4427 5410 4583 5652 7836 5169 8512 11090 13990 14510 22150 7248 7702 16760 8409 5176 5803 20140 15220 19290 4949 3682 21520 5405 15680 13190 10920 17540 5233 5476 2923 10760 9781 5204 2873 11230 6155 17640 7942 4121 28340 16000 5571 4784 4972 23790 24970 24590 21660 17370 6992 7783 5734 7802 4742 8052 6208 8718 4410 3924 6282 13780 27980 16710 4807 8160 24080 6695 8000 24180 5933 5222 6267 10420 6518 5393 12100
2021-03-15 2846 4953 8486 8080 9395 9653 11500 3799 23180 29920 17900 4196 17550 8032 7821 8123 13240 21970 98500 6790 17590 9088 5835 25200 4656 24970 6927 46580 10710 6521 27950 6869 14210 30030 5873 24060 6133 9032 6882 9713 16720 13840 5486 13860 6936 9901 8174 8240 15450 12070 12520 3682 8926 20310 21210 6031 4747 4179 7624 11110 3083 5312 13860 2517 37000 23170 2706 7772 30540 8363 7198 10150 4132 19700 2882 21760 11560 7785 25950 30350 2900 4091 4785 8102 6092 4516 17360 9370 8601 6509 5654 2955 7227 29500 12350 5136 6898 4877 5155 5263 8031 3054 4672 13480 7939 6305 3767 10190 5434 22030 7243 11770 4133 12740 4984 20510 7841 7496 20260 4212 8634 6193 6911 26570 6790 8115 4801 25810 5864 5584 24200 7583 7675 7265 6693 14720 8750 5760 7394 18470 11950 32060 17200 23900 9217 59470 35010 4851 21380 6427 6753 48030 19470 12560 2761 51070 7791 25880 2522 3392 15900 2165 3184 6720 12210 19580 4333 6019 6974 22880 8215 34960 1942 5803 8140 6197 5404 8449 2956 9897 12100 4112 5890 17510 16870 7279 29950 8237 4823 22140 9163 9504 14690 8924 14010 13430 10640 32330 9114 6021 9133 4481 10590 2551 20520 6316 5944 4860 19940 6237 5357 6770 7632 1593 1836 22520 33210 5382 5173 23690 4683 6794 41010 14750 14930 14210 5869 4718 5634 7164 14820 4949 7027 4434 5414 4590 5663 7850 5183 8521 11120 14030 14520 22170 7258 7707 16790 8417 5195 5816 20190 15250 19340 4965 3691 21580 5414 15680 13210 10950 17590 5257 5482 2931 10780 9814 5213 2877 11240 6166 17650 7951 4127 28360 16030 5575 4788 4982 23870 25010 24610 21680 17400 7011 7797 5739 7805 4761 8064 6225 8742 4427 3928 6294 13790 28030 16740 4811 8173 24120 6710 8014 24210 5948 5236 6276 10440 6536 5412 12120
2021-03-16 2848 4959 8501 8098 9422 9658 11510 3803 23190 29940 17950 4199 17570 8044 7845 8130 13250 21970 98610 6796 17610 9101 5848 25270 4673 24990 6935 46720 10720 6533 27970 6881 14220 30070 5879 24070 6144 9038 6899 9724 16740 13860 5491 13880 6945 9909 8181 8247 15470 12100 12530 3686 8934 20340 21250 6048 4751 4186 7641 11120 3086 5328 13880 2519 37070 23220 2709 7779 30560 8379 7215 10150 4141 19730 2893 21780 11570 7794 25970 30390 2902 4100 4790 8111 6101 4527 17400 9393 8610 6511 5669 2956 7234 29520 12360 5140 6914 4879 5164 5290 8033 3057 4679 13510 7952 6311 3772 10200 5442 22050 7250 11790 4139 12750 4996 20520 7849 7510 20290 4218 8652 6198 6915 26580 6804 8123 4805 25840 5874 5587 24230 7603 7690 7267 6696 14730 8758 5766 7407 18530 11960 32120 17200 23920 9227 59600 35070 4857 21380 6444 6765 48080 19500 12570 2773 51140 7799 25900 2527 3399 15910 2169 3188 6726 12250 19610 4338 6028 6992 22910 8233 34990 1943 5809 8175 6202 5416 8467 2958 9921 12130 4119 5914 17530 16880 7288 30000 8252 4829 22160 9174 9514 14740 8935 14030 13470 10650 32360 9125 6040 9141 4488 10600 2555 20580 6319 5953 4861 20010 6248 5361 6788 7635 1597 1841 22570 33260 5388 5183 23730 4691 6801 41100 14770 14960 14230 5874 4724 5642 7180 14840 4971 7044 4440 5414 4596 5671 7864 5195 8527 11140 14060 14530 22190 7266 7712 16800 8424 5205 5826 20210 15270 19380 4981 3699 21640 5421 15690 13210 10980 17630 5282 5487 2933 10790 9838 5219 2881 11250 6175 17660 7962 4131 28380 16050 5582 4792 4991 23940 25050 24640 21700 17410 7026 7808 5741 7806 4777 8069 6233 8756 4441 3932 6307 13810 28070 16780 4815 8183 24140 6722 8025 24240 5960 5247 6282 10470 6542 5430 12140
2021-03-17 2851 4963 8513 8109 9445 9667 11530 3807 23210 29960 18000 4205 17580 8056 7866 8138 13260 21980 98740 6802 17640 9114 5860 25320 4684 25000 6940 46830 10740 6547 28000 6893 14230 30090 5884 24090 6154 9043 6910 9740 16760 13890 5496 13890 6955 9919 8188 8255 15490 12130 12530 3691 8941 20370 21290 6063 4754 4192 7658 11120 3089 5344 13890 2520 37140 23280 2712 7785 30580 8393 7235 10150 4150 19750 2903 21790 11610 7803 25980 30420 2905 4109 4795 8119 6111 4538 17440 9411 8620 6514 5682 2958 7241 29550 12370 5144 6931 4880 5173 5309 8040 3060 4686 13530 7967 6316 3776 10210 5447 22070 7257 11800 4146 12770 5008 20540 7857 7523 20310 4223 8669 6204 6920 26580 6816 8133 4809 25870 5884 5589 24250 7627 7700 7267 6698 14740 8768 5772 7420 18590 11970 32180 17210 23940 9236 59690 35140 4862 21390 6455 6777 48120 19540 12570 2783 51220 7823 25920 2532 3405 15930 2173 3192 6732 12270 19630 4342 6035 7010 22940 8247 35010 1945 5812 8208 6208 5427 8486 2958 9940 12150 4126 5937 17550 16890 7296 30040 8265 4835 22180 9182 9524 14800 8947 14040 13500 10660 32390 9140 6059 9148 4495 10620 2559 20630 6323 5961 4865 20060 6259 5365 6804 7637 1601 1845 22630 33310 5394 5193 23790 4698 6807 41200 14780 14990 14250 5879 4729 5649 7198 14860 4993 7054 4445 5414 4601 5679 7878 5210 8533 11160 14090 14550 22200 7274 7717 16810 8430 5211 5837 20250 15310 19420 5000 3707 21690 5427 15690 13230 11010 17670 5304 5492 2940 10800 9861 5225 2884 11260 6184 17670 7971 4136 28390 16070 5585 4795 4999 24010 25080 24660 21720 17430 7040 7817 5748 7808 4795 8076 6244 8772 4455 3936 6322 13820 28110 16790 4819 8193 24170 6734 8036 24260 5971 5259 6286 10490 6549 5452 12150
2021-03-18 2852 4966 8520 8123 9463 9669 11540 3810 23230 29980 18050 4208 17590 8066 7880 8142 13270 21990 98840 6807 17670 9125 5871 25390 4695 25020 6944 46930 10750 6560 28020 6902 14240 30110 5885 24100 6162 9048 6921 9749 16780 13920 5502 13900 6961 9925 8193 8263 15500 12150 12540 3695 8948 20400 21320 6076 4755 4198 7674 11130 3091 5362 13900 2521 37200 23320 2715 7792 30600 8406 7254 10160 4157 19780 2913 21810 11620 7810 25990 30440 2907 4118 4800 8126 6122 4548 17470 9421 8629 6516 5695 2959 7247 29570 12390 5148 6945 4882 5182 5322 8045 3061 4693 13540 7983 6318 3779 10220 5451 22090 7264 11810 4152 12780 5017 20550 7864 7535 20330 4227 8685 6205 6924 26590 6826 8137 4812 25910 5894 5596 24270 7638 7710 7267 6701 14750 8773 5779 7436 18660 11980 32230 17220 23950 9243 59800 35190 4866 21400 6462 6788 48160 19570 12580 2791 51280 7830 25930 2536 3410 15940 2176 3195 6736 12310 19660 4346 6041 7025 22970 8260 35040 1946 5818 8245 6214 5437 8508 2962 9958 12180 4133 5956 17570 16890 7304 30090 8283 4841 22210 9191 9533 14820 8956 14060 13530 10670 32420 9150 6076 9155 4502 10630 2564 20660 6326 5969 4867 20100 6270 5369 6817 7637 1604 1850 22680 33370 5398 5209 23830 4705 6813 41310 14800 15010 14270 5883 4734 5657 7208 14880 5012 7073 4448 5416 4606 5685 7892 5225 8539 11170 14130 14560 22210 7282 7722 16820 8437 5222 5846 20280 15340 19460 5013 3713 21730 5431 15700 13230 11030 17710 5321 5496 2942 10810 9879 5232 2887 11270 6190 17680 7977 4141 28410 16090 5587 4798 5007 24070 25120 24680 21730 17460 7051 7825 5749 7808 4808 8084 6251 8781 4466 3940 6332 13830 28150 16820 4823 8203 24190 6746 8045 24280 5980 5273 6286 10510 6554 5464 12160
2021-03-19 2854 4969 8528 8130 9479 9675 11550 3813 23240 30000 18100 4212 17600 8076 7900 8148 13280 22000 98940 6813 17690 9132 5881 25420 4707 25030 6953 47040 10760 6572 28040 6911 14250 30140 5892 24110 6169 9052 6930 9756 16800 13940 5507 13910 6968 9930 8198 8271 15520 12180 12540 3699 8954 20430 21350 6089 4759 4203 7689 11130 3092 5380 13920 2521 37250 23350 2718 7798 30620 8418 7270 10160 4164 19800 2923 21850 11640 7816 26010 30470 2910 4128 4805 8133 6134 4558 17500 9440 8638 6522 5707 2960 7253 29600 12390 5151 6959 4883 5190 5336 8047 3063 4699 13560 8000 6321 3784 10230 5454 22110 7271 11820 4158 12790 5027 20560 7871 7545 20350 4234 8700 6208 6927 26590 6834 8140 4817 25940 5903 5599 24290 7653 7718 7282 6703 14760 8779 5786 7449 18720 11990 32280 17230 23970 9249 59910 35250 4870 21410 6479 6799 48200 19600 12580 2798 51340 7841 25950 2541 3414 15950 2179 3198 6740 12330 19690 4350 6045 7040 23000 8272 35070 1948 5826 8276 6217 5446 8531 2966 9970 12200 4140 5975 17590 16910 7311 30130 8294 4846 22240 9195 9541 14850 8968 14070 13550 10680 32440 9155 6093 9163 4509 10640 2569 20690 6329 5976 4869 20160 6281 5373 6829 7640 1606 1854 22720 33400 5403 5214 23840 4712 6819 41380 14820 15030 14300 5893 4739 5665 7224 14900 5031 7080 4452 5419 4610 5691 7906 5235 8549 11190 14150 14570 22230 7290 7726 16840 8443 5228 5854 20310 15360 19490 5023 3720 21760 5435 15700 13240 11060 17730 5327 5500 2945 10820 9897 5238 2890 11280 6197 17690 7980 4146 28430 16110 5590 4801 5014 24120 25150 24700 21750 17480 7062 7833 5751 7809 4815 8089 6258 8793 4477 3944 6342 13850 28180 16840 4827 8212 24200 6756 8054 24310 5988 5276 6295 10530 6561 5482 12170

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-03-13 to 2021-03-19

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-03-12 2836 4933 8417 8031 9287 9623 11421 3784 23115 29844 17742 4169 17483 7987 7741 8084 13210 21940 98158 6771 17501 9039 5788 24861 4606 24926 6896 46188 10661 6477 27868 6823 14160 29937 5847 24036 6093 9009 6837 9674 16665 13778 5472 13814 6914 9884 8144 8215 15399 11972 12503 3663 8899 20215 21067 5968 4744 4152 7562 11084 3070 5272 13815 2513 36749 22938 2697 7752 30484 8304 7146 10134 4096 19588 2844 21728 11492 7748 25871 30242 2891 4064 4769 8073 6074 4478 17230 9286 8551 6501 5606 2950 7202 29390 12298 5118 6837 4870 5121 5175 8002 3033 4649 13396 7881 6282 3761 10156 5428 21964 7219 11724 4108 12701 4940 20481 7809 7440 20192 4200 8575 6161 6900 26555 6735 8089 4788 25689 5827 5567 24122 7500 7615 7255 6683 14677 8719 5744 7343 18347 11928 31860 17164 23825 9182 58977 34833 4827 21356 6389 6711 47909 19353 12540 2715 50868 7754 25822 2508 3355 15858 2149 3169 6703 12110 19498 4316 5997 6909 22768 8164 34855 1936 5789 8102 6182 5357 8403 2953 9833 12005 4087 5803 17451 16823 7244 29784 8204 4800 22068 9145 9465 14620 8885 13959 13316 10607 32213 9066 5957 9109 4457 10546 2538 20388 6306 5916 4846 19768 6199 5346 6701 7626 1575 1820 22319 33032 5359 5125 23509 4656 6770 40677 14683 14856 14151 5845 4698 5609 7068 14784 4871 6999 4413 5400 4568 5631 7808 5154 8488 11043 13931 14481 22107 7228 7692 16753 8394 5162 5778 20109 15175 19186 4940 3664 21403 5388 15667 13160 10856 17475 5168 5464 2915 10715 9715 5192 2865 11195 6132 17619 7915 4111 28288 15944 5565 4775 4951 23663 24898 24532 21605 17328 6955 7755 5730 7795 4696 8029 6180 8690 4377 3917 6261 13748 27932 16673 4800 8134 24026 6666 7973 24128 5903 5202 6248 10358 6497 5370 12051
2021-03-13 2838 4940 8420 8038 9299 9629 11430 3786 23130 29850 17790 4172 17490 7996 7760 8090 13220 21950 98240 6784 17520 9048 5799 24900 4617 24940 6903 46290 10670 6485 27880 6826 14170 29960 5849 24050 6099 9013 6843 9680 16680 13800 5476 13820 6920 9891 8146 8222 15420 11990 12510 3667 8902 20230 21090 5974 4745 4155 7571 11100 3075 5286 13820 2515 36800 22960 2700 7756 30500 8313 7161 10140 4105 19610 2850 21760 11500 7756 25890 30260 2893 4072 4774 8080 6089 4490 17260 9301 8558 6503 5613 2951 7208 29410 12310 5120 6847 4874 5125 5184 8006 3035 4655 13410 7892 6286 3764 10160 5429 21980 7225 11730 4113 12710 4950 20490 7816 7447 20210 4206 8591 6163 6906 26570 6746 8094 4791 25720 5834 5570 24140 7512 7623 7266 6687 14690 8724 5751 7353 18400 11940 31910 17170 23840 9187 59070 34870 4830 21370 6399 6722 47940 19390 12540 2717 50930 7758 25840 2512 3361 15870 2153 3172 6705 12130 19520 4320 6001 6924 22800 8175 34880 1938 5794 8123 6185 5368 8431 2954 9842 12030 4093 5820 17470 16840 7250 29810 8211 4805 22100 9151 9470 14640 8895 13970 13340 10620 32230 9074 5973 9116 4464 10550 2545 20420 6308 5924 4847 19800 6209 5350 6711 7630 1578 1822 22340 33060 5363 5131 23530 4663 6774 40760 14690 14870 14170 5851 4702 5616 7076 14800 4884 7008 4415 5404 4571 5633 7820 5162 8495 11060 13960 14490 22120 7236 7696 16760 8398 5172 5787 20130 15200 19220 4946 3669 21430 5390 15680 13170 10880 17500 5180 5468 2916 10720 9720 5196 2867 11200 6137 17630 7919 4117 28300 15960 5568 4778 4961 23710 24920 24550 21620 17350 6965 7762 5732 7796 4705 8033 6185 8697 4387 3922 6268 13760 27960 16690 4804 8141 24040 6671 7979 24140 5911 5210 6258 10370 6503 5380 12070
2021-03-14 2841 4946 8429 8044 9318 9634 11450 3789 23140 29870 17840 4175 17500 8007 7777 8095 13230 21950 98330 6796 17540 9057 5809 24930 4626 24950 6908 46380 10680 6495 27900 6832 14180 29980 5853 24060 6107 9017 6849 9688 16690 13820 5480 13830 6924 9897 8150 8226 15430 12010 12510 3671 8907 20260 21130 5985 4746 4159 7580 11110 3080 5294 13830 2517 36840 22990 2703 7761 30510 8330 7172 10150 4111 19630 2859 21780 11510 7764 25900 30290 2895 4082 4778 8087 6097 4497 17280 9316 8566 6503 5622 2952 7213 29420 12310 5124 6860 4878 5130 5195 8010 3039 4660 13430 7898 6290 3764 10170 5430 22000 7231 11740 4118 12720 4961 20500 7823 7457 20220 4209 8605 6168 6911 26580 6756 8100 4797 25750 5842 5575 24160 7524 7634 7271 6689 14700 8729 5755 7363 18450 11950 31950 17180 23860 9190 59160 34900 4835 21370 6407 6733 47960 19410 12550 2727 50970 7767 25850 2515 3367 15880 2156 3176 6706 12140 19540 4324 6004 6935 22830 8187 34900 1939 5797 8139 6188 5375 8449 2955 9848 12050 4098 5840 17480 16850 7256 29850 8219 4810 22120 9154 9476 14660 8906 13980 13360 10620 32250 9083 5989 9120 4470 10560 2547 20440 6310 5930 4849 19840 6218 5352 6725 7634 1582 1823 22380 33080 5367 5135 23550 4669 6778 40820 14700 14880 14180 5855 4706 5625 7093 14800 4901 7014 4420 5407 4576 5639 7834 5172 8498 11080 13970 14500 22130 7241 7701 16770 8403 5181 5798 20150 15220 19240 4952 3676 21450 5394 15690 13170 10900 17520 5186 5473 2918 10720 9730 5199 2870 11210 6143 17640 7923 4120 28320 15970 5569 4781 4969 23750 24940 24560 21640 17360 6976 7772 5735 7799 4710 8041 6189 8705 4399 3924 6271 13770 27980 16700 4806 8150 24050 6676 7989 24150 5921 5218 6265 10380 6505 5390 12080
2021-03-15 2844 4953 8444 8057 9338 9638 11460 3791 23160 29900 17890 4178 17520 8017 7800 8103 13230 21960 98450 6807 17570 9068 5820 24980 4640 24960 6914 46490 10690 6507 27920 6836 14190 30010 5859 24070 6112 9021 6855 9699 16700 13850 5485 13840 6929 9907 8154 8231 15440 12030 12520 3675 8910 20290 21160 5995 4747 4162 7593 11120 3085 5304 13840 2519 36890 23020 2705 7767 30530 8344 7190 10150 4118 19650 2867 21830 11530 7771 25930 30330 2896 4092 4786 8094 6107 4506 17310 9336 8578 6507 5629 2953 7219 29430 12320 5127 6876 4882 5137 5221 8015 3043 4667 13450 7910 6296 3766 10180 5432 22010 7236 11750 4123 12720 4970 20500 7829 7471 20230 4211 8621 6174 6917 26590 6764 8105 4804 25780 5854 5578 24180 7541 7647 7281 6691 14710 8735 5759 7378 18500 11950 32010 17190 23880 9196 59300 34960 4839 21380 6420 6744 47980 19430 12560 2737 51030 7777 25870 2518 3378 15890 2158 3180 6708 12150 19570 4327 6008 6951 22860 8201 34920 1941 5801 8165 6192 5382 8470 2956 9859 12070 4103 5859 17500 16880 7262 29880 8228 4815 22140 9162 9484 14680 8918 13990 13390 10630 32270 9096 6004 9129 4476 10570 2549 20490 6314 5936 4852 19900 6227 5356 6738 7639 1586 1824 22420 33110 5371 5141 23580 4675 6781 40890 14710 14890 14200 5861 4709 5634 7116 14810 4922 7030 4423 5411 4581 5649 7849 5183 8503 11090 13990 14510 22140 7247 7705 16790 8408 5197 5807 20190 15240 19270 4964 3683 21480 5397 15700 13180 10930 17560 5191 5477 2922 10730 9739 5204 2872 11220 6148 17650 7927 4123 28330 15980 5571 4784 4975 23810 24960 24580 21660 17390 6987 7779 5739 7801 4715 8050 6200 8723 4410 3927 6280 13780 28010 16720 4808 8159 24080 6680 8000 24170 5932 5228 6275 10390 6512 5404 12100
2021-03-16 2845 4959 8453 8072 9350 9641 11480 3793 23170 29920 17940 4180 17530 8026 7820 8108 13240 21960 98560 6817 17590 9079 5832 25020 4653 24970 6920 46610 10700 6518 27940 6840 14200 30040 5863 24080 6118 9025 6862 9709 16720 13870 5489 13850 6935 9914 8158 8236 15460 12050 12520 3678 8914 20320 21180 6004 4750 4164 7603 11130 3089 5315 13850 2521 36950 23050 2708 7775 30540 8356 7205 10160 4124 19670 2875 21870 11540 7777 25950 30380 2898 4103 4790 8099 6118 4516 17330 9353 8585 6508 5639 2953 7225 29440 12320 5130 6888 4885 5143 5245 8017 3047 4672 13470 7918 6301 3769 10190 5436 22020 7241 11750 4129 12730 4978 20510 7835 7481 20240 4214 8635 6178 6922 26600 6773 8112 4811 25810 5864 5580 24200 7555 7658 7287 6693 14710 8739 5765 7389 18550 11960 32070 17200 23890 9202 59430 35020 4842 21380 6431 6754 48010 19450 12560 2744 51090 7784 25890 2522 3385 15900 2159 3183 6711 12170 19590 4331 6014 6961 22890 8214 34940 1942 5806 8193 6195 5388 8493 2958 9871 12100 4108 5877 17520 16890 7267 29920 8241 4820 22170 9171 9490 14720 8928 14010 13420 10640 32290 9105 6020 9140 4482 10580 2552 20540 6317 5943 4853 19960 6236 5360 6750 7643 1589 1826 22460 33130 5374 5145 23600 4680 6784 40960 14720 14910 14210 5865 4712 5641 7130 14830 4938 7044 4427 5413 4585 5654 7863 5195 8510 11110 14010 14520 22140 7253 7709 16810 8413 5208 5815 20220 15260 19300 4977 3691 21520 5401 15710 13190 10950 17590 5198 5481 2924 10740 9747 5208 2875 11230 6152 17660 7930 4125 28340 15990 5574 4786 4981 23870 24990 24600 21670 17400 6996 7786 5741 7802 4720 8057 6206 8734 4421 3931 6291 13800 28040 16750 4812 8168 24100 6687 8008 24180 5940 5238 6284 10400 6515 5418 12110
2021-03-17 2847 4963 8464 8081 9369 9648 11490 3796 23180 29940 17990 4184 17540 8034 7840 8115 13250 21970 98680 6828 17610 9091 5843 25050 4665 24980 6925 46720 10710 6529 27960 6845 14210 30050 5867 24090 6125 9028 6867 9721 16730 13900 5494 13860 6941 9922 8164 8241 15470 12070 12530 3682 8917 20340 21210 6013 4753 4167 7613 11140 3093 5327 13860 2523 37010 23090 2711 7780 30550 8368 7222 10170 4130 19690 2882 21910 11560 7782 25970 30410 2899 4111 4795 8105 6130 4524 17360 9369 8594 6510 5648 2954 7230 29460 12330 5132 6898 4889 5150 5262 8024 3049 4678 13490 7928 6306 3772 10190 5439 22040 7246 11760 4134 12740 4985 20520 7840 7491 20250 4217 8650 6183 6927 26610 6781 8120 4817 25840 5873 5582 24220 7575 7669 7291 6695 14720 8745 5772 7401 18610 11970 32130 17200 23910 9206 59530 35080 4847 21390 6441 6764 48040 19470 12560 2749 51150 7801 25900 2526 3391 15910 2161 3186 6714 12190 19610 4334 6020 6976 22910 8226 34960 1943 5810 8218 6199 5393 8516 2958 9881 12120 4113 5895 17540 16910 7272 29960 8251 4824 22190 9177 9496 14770 8940 14010 13450 10640 32310 9117 6036 9149 4488 10590 2554 20580 6322 5949 4857 20010 6245 5364 6761 7646 1592 1827 22490 33160 5377 5150 23630 4686 6787 41030 14730 14930 14230 5870 4715 5648 7147 14840 4957 7054 4430 5415 4588 5658 7876 5206 8518 11120 14030 14530 22150 7259 7713 16830 8417 5215 5824 20250 15290 19320 4992 3696 21550 5403 15720 13200 10980 17620 5207 5485 2927 10740 9754 5213 2878 11230 6155 17670 7934 4128 28350 16000 5576 4790 4986 23930 25010 24610 21690 17420 7004 7792 5745 7804 4725 8066 6215 8745 4431 3935 6303 13810 28060 16760 4814 8175 24120 6693 8018 24190 5948 5247 6293 10410 6522 5435 12120
2021-03-18 2848 4967 8472 8093 9380 9653 11500 3798 23190 29950 18050 4186 17560 8043 7859 8122 13260 21970 98810 6838 17640 9106 5851 25090 4676 24990 6930 46820 10720 6540 27980 6849 14220 30070 5870 24100 6129 9031 6873 9733 16740 13930 5499 13870 6948 9928 8167 8246 15490 12090 12530 3686 8921 20380 21240 6024 4754 4169 7621 11150 3097 5340 13870 2525 37060 23120 2713 7787 30570 8379 7236 10170 4135 19710 2888 21940 11580 7788 25990 30430 2901 4121 4798 8110 6142 4532 17380 9386 8602 6512 5657 2955 7236 29470 12330 5134 6909 4892 5156 5277 8030 3051 4684 13500 7939 6311 3775 10200 5440 22050 7250 11760 4139 12750 4993 20520 7847 7500 20260 4220 8665 6188 6932 26620 6788 8125 4823 25860 5881 5586 24240 7592 7682 7295 6696 14730 8750 5779 7416 18660 11980 32180 17210 23920 9211 59650 35130 4850 21400 6450 6774 48060 19490 12570 2758 51200 7815 25910 2530 3398 15920 2163 3189 6718 12210 19640 4337 6025 6991 22940 8239 34990 1945 5815 8246 6202 5398 8540 2961 9892 12140 4118 5909 17560 16930 7278 29990 8263 4829 22220 9181 9502 14780 8951 14030 13470 10650 32320 9129 6052 9155 4494 10600 2557 20620 6327 5955 4861 20060 6254 5367 6771 7649 1594 1828 22520 33180 5380 5155 23650 4692 6790 41100 14750 14940 14250 5875 4719 5655 7163 14850 4975 7067 4432 5419 4592 5662 7888 5217 8525 11140 14060 14540 22160 7264 7717 16840 8423 5225 5832 20280 15320 19350 5003 3703 21580 5405 15730 13210 11000 17650 5213 5488 2930 10750 9763 5218 2880 11240 6159 17680 7939 4131 28360 16010 5578 4792 4992 23980 25040 24630 21710 17440 7011 7798 5747 7805 4729 8076 6220 8752 4441 3938 6313 13820 28080 16780 4817 8184 24130 6699 8026 24210 5955 5258 6299 10420 6529 5447 12140
2021-03-19 2850 4971 8481 8104 9388 9658 11510 3801 23210 29970 18090 4189 17570 8052 7876 8128 13270 21980 98920 6849 17660 9116 5858 25120 4687 25000 6937 46930 10730 6552 28000 6852 14220 30100 5874 24110 6133 9035 6878 9741 16760 13950 5503 13880 6953 9933 8172 8252 15500 12100 12530 3689 8925 20400 21270 6032 4757 4172 7628 11160 3100 5351 13880 2526 37110 23150 2716 7790 30580 8391 7252 10180 4140 19740 2895 21980 11590 7793 26010 30460 2903 4130 4801 8115 6155 4539 17400 9403 8610 6513 5666 2955 7241 29480 12340 5136 6920 4895 5162 5295 8034 3054 4691 13510 7950 6315 3778 10210 5442 22060 7255 11770 4144 12750 5001 20530 7853 7511 20270 4223 8679 6193 6937 26640 6794 8131 4830 25890 5891 5587 24260 7609 7693 7303 6698 14740 8755 5787 7427 18710 11990 32220 17220 23940 9216 59780 35190 4853 21410 6460 6785 48080 19510 12570 2762 51250 7828 25920 2534 3405 15920 2164 3192 6720 12220 19660 4341 6030 7002 22970 8251 35000 1946 5821 8273 6205 5404 8561 2963 9900 12160 4124 5925 17580 16950 7283 30020 8273 4833 22240 9184 9506 14800 8960 14040 13500 10660 32340 9138 6068 9160 4500 10610 2560 20650 6330 5962 4863 20110 6263 5371 6782 7653 1597 1830 22560 33200 5382 5157 23670 4698 6793 41170 14760 14950 14260 5880 4723 5662 7185 14860 4994 7074 4435 5423 4596 5670 7901 5230 8535 11150 14070 14550 22170 7269 7721 16860 8428 5231 5840 20320 15340 19370 5011 3710 21600 5408 15740 13220 11020 17670 5215 5492 2933 10760 9770 5222 2883 11240 6163 17690 7940 4134 28370 16020 5579 4794 4996 24020 25060 24650 21720 17460 7018 7803 5750 7808 4733 8085 6226 8759 4451 3940 6321 13830 28100 16790 4819 8192 24140 6704 8033 24220 5960 5264 6306 10430 6535 5463 12150

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.